Rapid Market Assessment in Flood Affected Areas of North-western

August 2016 1. Overview

As a result of heavy rainfall in the major river basins and upstream catchments of India as well as the northwest and north-eastern parts of Bangladesh; flooding has been reported in many locations across the country from around the 22 of July. Based on the Government situation reports and other updates shared by organizations working in the affected areas, the co-chair of the HCTT triggered a Rapid Needs Assessment on 03 August 2016. On the very same day – immediately after the HCTT meeting, the Needs Assessment Working Group (NAWG) had a brief discussion on the assessment modality. Apart from agreeing upon a desk based secondary data review approach for the rapid needs assessment, the NAWG also decided to conduct a rapid market assessment in the worst affected districts to assess the functionality of the markets in the flood affected areas in order to define the appropriate response modality.

2. Objectives

The overall objective of this market assessment was to assess the functionality of the markets in the flood affected areas in order to define the response modality.

The assessment specifically looked into the

 Overall impacts on the markets  Price volatility  Supply chain system and restocking  Market capacity  Accessibility of the flood affected population to the local markets.

3. Methodology

3.1 Assessment tools

As the RMA had to cover a very limited range of market functionality indicators within a very short time; the TWG members opted for a brief checklist for data collection. The checklist is below:

Impact: 1. Are markets in the affected area generally Fully Partly functioning? Not functioning Do not know

Access: 1. Are markets generally accessible by the Yes No Do not know local community?

1 Inflation: 1. Are the prices of basic commodities (food, Yes No Do not know hygiene, etc.) are the same? 2. If the prices have inflated, can you give an 10% 25% 50% double triple estimate of the inflation? Stock and Supply to market 1. Do markets have stocks of food? Yes No Do not know

2. Are the traders supplied with basic items? Yes No Do not know

The enumerators were guided to have a reconnaissance to check the physical access to the markets followed by a brief interview with the retailers, wholesalers and consumers using the checklist.

Key features of the assessment involved field teams compiling information into one consolidated template (Data Entry Sheet) for all selected markets. The enumerators were oriented over phone on the questionnaires, data collection procedures and input to the data entry sheet on 05 August 2016. From 06 to 07 August the enumerators visited all selected markets and community people in the targeted unions.

3.2 Market Selection

Since the Rapid Needs Assessment report classified Kurigram, , Gaibandha, Bogra, Jamalpur and as worst affected and subsequently suggested immediate relief operations; the market assessment team selected 27 markets in those 6 districts for rapid assessment.

Districts Number of selected markets

Lalmonirhat 6 Sirajganj 4 Kurigram 6 Gaibandha 4 Bogra 4 Jamalpur 3 TOTAL 27

While selecting the markets, the team members also considered issues like; size of the market, number of retail and wholesale traders, outreach in terms of both supply and demand and extent of damage to functionality. The map below shows the market functionality status as of 07 August. The summary table of the survey results can be found in annex 01.

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4.

Market Structure

3 Most of the selected markets are long established and well connected to the major supply nodes both at regional and national level. All sample markets have retail shops, wholesale shops and shops with both retail and wholesale business.

No. of No. of shops No. of No. of Name of the years with both retail District Union wholesale retail markets market and wholesale shops shops exists business Char Agg Bohail Bogra Sariakandi Bohail 4 5 30 15 Koritola Bogra Sariakandi Kamalpur 30 10 20 0 Rouhadaha Bazar Bogra Sariakandi Kamalpur 22 5 70 0 Tekani Tekani Chukainagar Bogra 43 10 20 0 Sonatola Chukainagar Fulchuri Bazar Gaibandha Fulchuri Gojariya 40 5 30 7 Shaghata Bazar Gaibandha Shaghata Shaghata 110 10 200 20 Kanchibari Gaibandha Sundorgonj Santiram 100 2 80 0 Sreepur Gaibandha Sundorgonj Sreepur 100 5 50 12

Kauniarchar Jamalpur Dewanganj Dangdhara 50 6 150 9 Gothail Bazar Jamalpur Islampur Chinaduli 200 0 175 10 Molamganj Bazar Jamalpur Islampur Patharshi 40 1 20 7 Shilkuri Kurigram Borungamari Shilkuri 25 5 13 7 Koraiborisal Bazar Kurigram Chilmari Chilmari 8 2 20 5 Kurigram Jatrapur Kurigram Jatrapur 30 12 35 7 Sadar Kotohakata Kurigram Nageswari Kotha kata 40 10 30 10 Mondoler hat Kurigram Ulipur Buraburi 42 5 25 12 Thetrai Bazar Kurigram Ulipur Thetrai 20 3 18 5 Belkuchi Mukundagati Bazar Sirajganj 32 25 100 20 Belkuchi Pourashava Hat Ghorjan Sirajganj Chowhali Ghorjan 30 0 20 2 Natuapara Bazar Sirajganj Kazipur Natuapara 20 1 16 4 Pipulbaria Bazar Sirajganj Sadar Ratankandi 45 0 12 5 Lalmoni Moghalhat Bazar Lalmonirhat sadar Moghalhat 100 - 12 -

Lalmonirhat Lalmoni Borobari Hat sadar Borobari 45 2 25 3

Mohishkhocha Lalmonirhat Bazar Aditmari Mohishkhocha 30 2 7 2

Choudhury Hat Lalmonirhat Kaligonj Votmari 20 - 7 -

4 Hatibandha Bazar Lalmonirhat Hatibandha Sindurna 60 5 25 4

Dohogram Bazar Lalmonirhat Patgram Dohogram 20 - 9 3 Source: Rapid Market Assessment in Flood Affected Areas on Northwest Bangladesh (RMA conducted in 2014) for Kurigram, Gaibandha, Bogra, Sirajganj and Jamalpur Districts. Primary data on market structure were collected only in .

5. Impacts on markets

Among the 27 markets surveyed on 06th and 07th August 14 (around 52%) were fully functioning and 13 were partly.

Districts Number of markets Fully functioning Partly functioning Not functioning Lalmonirhat 6 - - Sirajganj 1 3 - Kurigram 2 4 - Gaibandha 3 1 - Bogra 2 2 - Jamalpur - 3 - TOTAL 14 13 -

This is worth mentioning that none of the markets were non-functioning and the respondents (shopkeepers and community people) reported that the partly functioning markets will be fully functioning as soon as the flood water recedes in coming 2/3 days.

6. Price volatility

During the market assessment survey (06-07 August) the prices of all food commodities were found in an increasing trend. Prices of some of the basic food items were reported up to 25% higher compared to normal price. Though the study team couldn’t collect price data for all food items due to shortage of time and manpower; but in general; the prices of seasonal vegetables and fish were found considerably high. In case of vegetables and fish the high price volatility was reported mainly because of damage to vegetable production and fish ponds.

The respondents in Bogra and Sirajganj reported 25% increase in price where as 10% increase is reported in Kurigram, Gaibandha and Jamalpur. In addition, the prices of some of the staple items (rice, pulses), vegetables and fish in the markets of Bogra,

5 Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Kurigram and Sirajganj were not well integrated amongst each other. But no price volatility was observed in Lalmonirhat.

Districts Number of markets Changes in price in % (‘+’ surveyed means increase ‘–‘ means decrease) Lalmonirhat 6 0% Sirajganj 4 +25% Kurigram 6 +10% Gaibandha 4 +10% Bogra 4 +25% Jamalpur 3 +10%

The market-wise inflation data can be found in column 08 of annex 01.

7. Food Stock in Markets and supply chain

Only three markets – two in Sirajganj (Hat Ghorjan and Natuapara Bazar) and one in Jamalpur (Kauniarchar Bazar) among the 27 reported not to have sufficient stock of food items.

The supply sources for both the retailers and wholesalers in the selected markets remained the same before, during, and after the flood. The supply chain remained almost uninterrupted during the flood. Only 5 markets were reported to have supply disruptions for around 4-8 days between 20 and 31 July (Column 10 of annex 01).

8. Access to food and markets

The study team talked to the community people living in the villages within 0.5-1 Km radius from the surveyed markets. All respondents reported that they depend on the nearby markets for major food items and usually can access the market on foot. During the survey period 24 out of 27 markets were fully accessible. Only three markets in (Mukundagati Bazar in Belkuchi, Hat Ghorjan in Chowhali and Natuapara Bazar in Kazipur) were reported not to be fully accessible by the community people and this was because of the slowly receding flood water (Detail can be found in column 06 of annex 01).

6 9. Conclusion and Recommendation for unconditional transfer modality

This assessment examined the market structure, price volatility, market conditions, and access to markets. The findings of the assessment indicate that most of the markets are long established, have good linkages with regional and national supply nodes and are capable of catering to the essential food needs of the people living in the catchment areas. Although all of the markets had some sort of inaccessibility during flooding they started becoming functional as soon as the flood water started receding.

Map- 1 shows the current functionality status of the markets covered under this assessment. Based on the findings on the current status of these markets, the assessment team is of the opinion that those markets which were not covered are more or less similar to the sampled markets in terms of structure, capacity, connectivity and accessibility; hence it can be assumed that they are already fully functioning by this time or will be fully functioning in coming 2/3 days.

Therefore, it can be concluded that cash based response would be the most appropriate transfer modality for the current phase of flood response.

7 Annex 01: Rapid Market Assessment for North West Flood 2016 District Upazila Union Market Name Are markets Are markets Are the prices If the prices Do Are the in the generally of basic have inflated, markets traders affected accessible commodities can you give have supplied area by the local (food, an estimate of stocks with basic generally community? hygiene, etc.) the inflation? of items? functioning? are the same? food? Lalmonirhat Lalmoni sadar Moghalhat Moghalhat Bazar Fully Yes Yes Yes Yes Lalmonirhat Lalmoni sadar Borobari Borobari Hat Fully Yes Yes Yes Yes Lalmonirhat Aditmari Mohishkhocha Mohishkhocha Fully Yes Yes Yes Yes Bazar Lalmonirhat Kaligonj Votmari Choudhury Hat Fully Yes Yes Yes Yes Lalmonirhat Hatibandha Sindurna Hatibandha Bazar Fully Yes Yes Yes Yes Lalmonirhat Patgram Dohogram Dohogram Bazar Fully Yes Yes Yes Yes Sirajganj Belkuchi Belkuchi Mukundagati Partly No No 25 Yes No Bazar Sirajganj Chowhali Ghorjan Hat Ghorjan Partly No No 25 No No Sirajganj Sirajganj Ratankandi Pipulbaria Bazar Fully Yes No 10 Yes Yes Sadar Sirajganj Kazipur Natuapara Natuapara Bazar Partly No No 10 No No Kurigram Chilmari Chilmari Koraiborisal Bazar Partly Yes No 10 Yes Yes Kurigram Kurigram Jatrapur Jatrapur Bazar Partly Yes No 10 Yes Yes Sadar Kurigram Nageswari Kochakata Kochakata Bazar Fully Yes No 10 Yes Yes Kurigram Ulipur Buraburi Mondoler Hat Fully Yes No 10 Yes Yes Kurigram Ulipur Thetrai Thetrai Bazar Partly Yes No 10 Yes Yes Kurigram Bhurungamari Shilkhuri Shilkhuri Bazar Partly Yes No 25 Yes Yes Gaibandha Fulchori Gojariya Fulchori Bazar Partly Yes No 10 Yes Yes Gaibandha Shaghata Shaghata Shaghata Bazar Fully Yes No 10 Yes Yes Gaibandha Sundorgonj Santiram Kanchibari Bazar Fully Yes No 10 Yes Yes Gaibandha Sundorgonj Sreepur Sreepur Bazar Fully Yes No 10 Yes Yes Bogra Sonatola Tekani Tekani Fully Yes No 25 Yes Yes Chukainagar Chukainagar Bogra Sariakandi Bohail Char Agg Bohail Partly Yes No 25 Yes Yes Bazar Bogra Sariakandi Kamalpur Rouhadaha Bazar Partly Yes No 25 Yes No Bogra Sariakandi Kamalpur Koritola Hat Fully Yes No 25 Yes Yes Jamalpur Dewanganj Dangdhara Kauniarchar Bazar Partly Yes No 10 No No Jamalpur Islampur Chinaduli Gothail Bazar Partly Yes No 25 Yes Yes Jamalpur Islampur Patharshi Molamganj Bazar Partly Yes No 10 Yes Yes

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