Nature-Related Conversation in 2020-2021

www.onalytica.com Intro & Methodology

Scope: This report explores the broader conversation on nature before, after, and during the COVID-19 pandemic globally on Twitter.

The aim of this report is to:

Understand how the conversation around nature and related conversations has evolved over 2020 and in the before and after of COVID. Understand the importance and the timeline of the Twitter conversation on nature as a whole, as well as nature-based climate solutions, biodiversity, and green recovery policies Analyse the nature and longevity of negative nature stories, such as natural disasters, as well as their correlation with climate change Examine the correlation between nature, COVID, and the economic rebuild after the COVID- 19 pandemic Time Period: January 2020 – March 2021

All Analysis in Global English Learnings

The nature conversation has decreased slightly in Q1 of 2021 in comparison to Q1 of 2020, mainly due to a decrease in conversation on such negative nature stories as the Australian bushfires in the beginning of 2020. However, the conversation on nature-based climate solutions has increased slightly, aided by international interest in agricultural innovation. Conversations on clean energy, green economy, carbon offsets, COP and corporate climate commitments have all also grown in popularity. Focus on these topics to align with the wider audience’s current topical interests. Most of the negative nature stories do not sustain momentum and are not linked with climate change, with a rare exception of wildfires and bushfires in California and Australia, with both natural disasters maintaining momentum on Twitter and garnering a more significant association with climate change. COVID and nature conversations are most often discussed parallel to each other. Negative nature stories are discussed as something the world has to deal with “on top of” the problems with COVID. Government inefficiency and international relations are most often cited as the origin and spread of COVID, not nature. However, when nature is discussed as a cause of COVID, it is often discussed in terms of animal origin, with little conversation devoted to the deforestation and destruction of the natural animal habitat as a cause. Only 2% of the post-COVID economic recovery Twitter conversation involves nature. Green recovery conversation took off in June, and continues to be prominent as an international topic, also widely discussed in India and Pakistan. Green growth conversation saw an uptick in January of this year, but is a considerably smaller conversation than green recovery, with activists pointing our not enough is being done to fulfil the green growth promised made by the government. Political figures and activists are the most prominent groups of influential voices6 on the topic of nature over the last year, often focusing on “who is to blame/who is responsible” narrative. Messaging of accountability is a prominent theme across the conversation by the most influential voices. Nature Conversation: 2020 v 2021

While the overall volume of nature conversation in Q1 2021 decreased by 16% in comparison to Q1 of 2020, such conversations as clean energy, green economy, land & agriculture, carbon offsets, COP, corporate climate commitments, and nature-based solutions grew in 2021. Green economy conversation had the most prominent growth in 2021, most prominently due to Joe Biden’s presidential “build back better” campaign focusing on creation of 10 million clean-energy jobs.

60M Tackling climate change 55M conversation has decreased 25M significantly in comparison to Q1 last year, due to the 2020 50M 48M surge aided by the Australian bushfires significantly linked 20M to the climate change.

40M Clean energy conversation has increased in Q1 of 2021, mostly due to a power outage 15M in Texas being blamed on The NBS 30M solar and wind power conversation has generators not generating grown in enough power, which many The Build Back comparison to last 10M considered false information. Better campaign year, boosted by 20M The blame is also used to has significantly India’s PM focusing dispute the usefulness of increased attention on agricultural Green New Deal, which is an paid to green innovation aiding opinion many opposed. economy in Q1 farmer welfare and 5M 10M 2021. resulting in ecological benefits.

0M 0M Jan - Mar Jan - Mar 2020 2021 6

January – March 2020, January – March 2021 Nature Conversation: Q1 2020 v Q2 2021

While the overall volume of nature conversation in Q1 2021 decreased by 9% in comparison to Q1 of 2020, the influencer topical conversations sees lesser fluctuation to Twitter on a whole. Due to the changes over the past year, the Green economy conversation sees the greatest uplift, primarily due to recovery conversations focusing on the importance of factoring in environmental solutions. 270K 266K 140K Tackling climate change 265K conversation has decreased in comparison to Q1 last year, Green Economy has seen 120K 260K due to the 2020 surge aided by the largest relative growth in the negative nature stories. mentions post-COVID , as influencers recognize the role 255K 100K NGOs made a conscious effort of nature in rebuilding in 2020 to link the emerging economies. Messaging 241K COVID pandemic to Climate centers on government 250K change, drawing similarities 80K policy and promoting a between them. ‘#resilientrecovery’. However, some concerns 245K Comparatively, in 2021, the over greenwashing are also 60K conversation had moved on present with Greta Thunberg 240K to addressing policy and posting about such corporate decisions. Efforts to create a momentum 40K ahead of COP26 have led to 235K increased coverage as stakeholders declare their intent ahead of the event. 230K 20K

225K Jan - Jan - 0K Mar Mar 6 2020 2021

January – March 2020, N= 109,125,003 January – March 2021 Nature conversation timeline

Overall, the nature conversation over the last 15 months has decreased, when comparing Q1 2020 to Q1 2021. There is an overarching messaging of “I will believe it when I see it” when it comes to the importance of nature. Large-scale effects on nature, such as the Australian bushfires or hurricane Laura gain most attention, but typically don’t sustain momentum. While negative nature stories gain the most attention, the positive effects the lockdown has had on nature were also highlighted in April 2020. Outside of large-scale stories, global events such as the World Environment Day gain attention, especially boosted by the influencer attention.

Australian World bushfires at the 30M Environment Day core of the nature helps boost Hurricane Laura conversation in the mentions on and its effects was beginning of 2020 at the epicentre of 25M Twitter, with many world leaders and August nature Typhoon Rolly in celebrities news. the Philippines highlighting it. gained Twitter 20M audience’s attention due to its devastating effects.

15M The global positive effect on nature as a result of COVID- Texans being left without induced lockdown sparks a power and the state governor 10M conversation that nature can slating the Green New Deal be saved and restored as a result, since the blame fell significantly, if strict systems onto insufficient solar and 5M are set in place. wind energy, resulted in a controversial conversation on Twitter. 0M 6

N= 259,434,325

January 2020 – March 2021 Nature v Climate conversation

Both the nature and climate change conversations correlated somewhat in January 2020 due to the raging bushfires in Australia. We see both conversations drop off in February, but then see them take different paths: from February through August the climate conversation plateaus, hovering around the mark of 3-4 million mentions, whereas the nature conversation continues an upward trend, with peaks around events such as Earth Day and Hurricane Laura, which is not explicitly linked with climate. The climate conversation peaks again in September with the commencement of wildfires spreading through the US West Coast. From here on the correlation between the 2 conversations picks back up through to March. Australian bushfires ravaging 25M the countryside Earth Day takes Hurricane Laura falls were a key driver place on April 22nd on the US, causing of conversation. seeing many take more than $16.1 A deadly winter to Twitter to show billion in damage. storm sweeps their support. through Texas and other southern US 20M states, leading to widespread power cuts.

15M The wildfires The violent spreading across the Australian US West Coast are bushfires raise highlighted for the way Nature Climate 10M questions on climate change is climate change for affecting communities. many. Many on Twitter point out that climate change includes winter storms 5M (such as those passing through Texas) and record-breaking winters. Also, the US re- enters the Paris Climate 0M 6Agreement.

March 2020 – March 2021 Biodiversity timeline

The damage bush fires caused to Australia’s biodiversity was a large driver of biodiversity conversation at the start of 2020. There were steep spikes in biodiversity mentions in June and October 2020, and to a lesser extent March 2021, were driven by world awareness days or social movements. Towards the end of 2020, Biden’s pledge to protect biodiversity was shared and responded to favourably on Twitter, in contrast to his election opponent Trump’s weakening of the Endangered Species act. Trump weakens the Endangered Species Act. Protests in Nigeria fight for access to clean water and Bushfires other basic human rights destroyed large during the End SARS 1200K amounts of movement. Australia’s biodiversity. 1000K

800K

World Environment Day celebrates World Water Day Earth’s rich biodiversity. 600K highlights the importance of freshwater supplies being made readily 400K available.

200K

0K 6 Nature Based Solutions Timeline

When comparing the conversation on nature-based solutions in Q1 of 2021 to Q1 of 2020, it has grown, aided by India’s PM continuous focus on agricultural innovation and its ecological benefits. However, this story has a strong negative aspect, with many arguing that the agricultural reforms proposed by the prime minister are harmful to farmers’ welfare. On the other side of the world in North America, nature- based solutions are mostly mentioned in a positive light, but remain somewhat controversial, e.g., with many opposing carbon tax in Canada.

Actor and activist Leonardo di 400K Caprio helps amplify messaging The Canadian government Indian PM Narendra Modi of conserving at least 30% of promises to plant two billion highlighted water conservation the planet as means to prevent trees, but reportedly does not plant any. 350K and agricultural innovation as mass extinctions and curb the vessels of transformation for the climate crisis through proven country. nature-based solutions. 300K

250K

200K India’s farmer Canadians discuss protests continue the proposed boosting the abolition of carbon 150K conversation on tax and the effect of agricultural this will have on innovation. 100K agriculture.

50K

0K 6

N= 3,556,801 January 2020 – March 2021 Nature & the pandemic

The biggest spike in nature and outdoors conversation in relation to the pandemic happened at the very beginning of the spread of the virus in the Western World, in March 2020. Smaller spikes occurred throughout the year. The conversation developed from the nature benefiting from the absence of humans to outdoor activities as the best way to spend time during the pandemic, to there still being risks to outdoors mid- pandemic activities, and, most recently, to individual countries and economies fighting the pandemic in order to eradicate the risk of the infection outdoors, making it a safe way to enjoy the nature, while the rest of the economy is still recovering.

2500K

At the dawn of the pandemic in the With COVID cases dropping 2000K Western World, social media in many places in the world audience made observations about mid-summer, there was a nature recovering with a drop in surge of outdoor activities, pollution levels due to less such as outdoor dining, The Rose Garden super commuting, and less human including the UK’s “eat out to spreader event at the influence on nature overall. The 1500K help out” scheme, White House casted exact turn phrases often used were encouraging for people to doubts over the “nature is healing” and “we are safely enjoy outdoor perceived safety of President Joe Biden the virus” recreational activities. outdoors socialisation. announces that if you are outdoors and not in a crowd, it 1000K is now okay not to wear a mask.

500K New Zealand lauded for defeating COVID and enjoying outdoors activities safely without masks as a result. 0K 6

January 2020 – March 2021 Nature during the pandemic: The wider picture

Expectedly, health conversation was centre-stage last year, with climate and natural disasters only gaining a fraction of the attention. Nature and outdoors conversation is rarely mentioned in these conversations. However, when the health and nature conversations coincide, there is emphasis is on choosing outdoors instead of indoors for social activities as a prevention measure in the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the climate conversation overlapping with the nature conversation, the most engaged content focused on nature and outdoors being separate from climate. In the natural disaster conversation, when nature is mentioned, rebuilding nature, e.g., through planting trees, is shown as one way to recover from the natural disasters.

600M Without Nature With Nature

1% 500M

400M

300M

200M

100M 5% 6 6% 0M Health Climate Natural Disasters

April 2020- April 2021 Nature-based solutions topical breakdown

Top nature-based solution conversations often had a political undertone, with country leaders (e.g., Canada, USA) using investment into nature-based climate solutions to gain a more positive disposition towards their policies. Agricultural technology and conservation investment are the most discussed topics within the nature-based solutions conversation, aided by the overall interest of using technology to improve farming and food innovation, and many on Twitter disputing former president Trump’s claims that his administration has achieved a lot in terms of conservation, which many felt was solely to serve the purpose of his presidential campaign propaganda.

450K 400K 350K 300K 250K 200K 150K 100K 50K 0K

6

March 2020-March 2021 N= 2,868,754 Tweets Negative nature stories & climate

On average, only 4% of the natural disaster content is linked to climate. The highest proportion of natural disaster conversation that was associated with climate was that on wildfires, with 11% and by bushfires with 10%. Less than 1% of earthquake and tsunami content related to climate.

25M

554K

20M

15M With Climate 545K Without Climate

22M 10M 26K

844K 13M 23K

5M 10M 24K 8M 54K 7M 56K 4M 4M 166K 6 2M 2M 107K 17K 1M 0M Floods Hurricanes Earthquakes Wildfires Tsunamis Volcano Typhoons Cyclones Natural Bushfires Oil Spills erruptions Disasters April 2020-March 2021 Negative climate stories

Looking at the top six negative climate stories over the last year, it becomes evident that most conversations die down completely within weeks. However, both Californian and Australian wildfires have managed to maintain some momentum. Increasingly, bushfires are becoming a part of the wider Australian identity, while the Californian wildfire narrative persists through government aid, such as tax benefits for wildfire victims.

California wildfires Hurricane Laura Cyclone Amphan

250K 1400K 700K 1200K 600K 200K 1000K 500K 150K 800K 400K 100K 600K 300K 400K 200K 50K 200K 100K K K K

Mount Sinabung Volcano Philippines Typhoon Australian bushfires

700K 600K 500K 80K 500K 400K 400K 60K 300K 300K 40K 200K 200K 100K K 100K 20K K 6 K

April 2020 – March 2021 Nature as a cause of COVID

COVID and nature conversations are most often discussed parallel to each other, as opposed to cause & effect. Negative nature and climate stories are discussed as something the world has to deal with “on top of” the problems with COVID. Government inefficiency and international relations are most often “blame” for the origin and spread of COVID, not nature. However, when nature is discussed as a cause of COVID, it is often discussed in terms of animal origin, e.g., “it came from a bat”, but very little conversation is devoted to the nature problems leading to this, such as deforestation and destruction of the natural animal habitat. Deforestation as the main Lab, not cause, 4% nature- created, 1% New Other, 5% pandemic to follow soon if nature not protected, 5% COVID Nature as a cause of COVID conversation 165K mentions <1% of COVID 1.45 B Mentions conversation

Animal origin, 85% 6

N = 2,823,530 April 2020 – March 2021 Post COVID story: Nature

Only 2% of the post-COVID economic recovery Twitter conversation involves nature. Green recovery conversation took off in June, with the World Environment Day amplifying the messaging. While this conversation has lost some of its momentum, the overall conversation persists as an international topic, also widely discussed in India and Pakistan. Green growth conversation saw an uptick in January of this year, with Greta Thunberg as a facilitator of the conversation on the world’s governments not doing enough to back out their promises on green growth ambitions.

World Environment Day posts 120K highlight green recovery. Economic Recovery + Nature, 2% 110K

100K Green Recovery Green Growth Nature & Economic Recovery

90K Green recovery messaging amplified by Indian 9-year old climate activist 80K Licypriya Kangujam.

Economic 70K Recovery, 98% 60K

50K

40K Pakistan's PM highlights the country’s green 30K Activist Greta Thunberg recovery efforts condemns world government’s for not following through with green 20K growth promises. 10K

K 6 April May June July August September October November December January February March

April 2020 – March 2021 Influential voices

The two most influential groups of voices on the topic of nature were political professionals and nature and climate activists, often gathering the most attention when opposing another authority and advocating clean and renewable energy.

Academics Political Figures Activists

Robert Reich Beto O’Rourke Beto was another voice condemning the Texas governor Licypriya Kangujam Economist Robert Reich was one of the most influential The 9-year old climate activist from India highlighted many voices calling out the Texas governor for blaming the for trying to blame the Green New Deal for the power outages in Texas. However, Beto has also called out nature and climate issues within the last year, calling out power outage on the Green New Deal, when the deal both the Indian and international government has not yet been implemented, and over 80% of the other politicians, e.g. for putting clean energy jobs on the back burner. Overall, clean energy in Texas has been a representatives on not taking enough initiative in negative Texas power is from non-renewable sources. He also nature stories, such as floods, typhoons, and wildfires. highlighted such issues as incarcerated firefighters being key campaign point for this politician, reaching a large a large force dealing with Californian wildfires, while audience. being severely underpaid. 128.8K followers 1.3M 2 M followers followers

Entrepreneurs Narendra Modi PM of India has spread the messaging on the need for an agricultural technology reform in the country, which he Mari Copeny has said should lead to improved ecological and Aged 13, founder of Dear Flint Kids Mari is highlighting Elon Musk economic results. However, his statements have often the fact that it has been six years since the Flint water crisis, but nobody has been charged for the misdoings. The entrepreneurs grandiose Carbon Removal challenge been met with backlash, as many in India believe the was most notably picked up by the Twitter audience. measures the PM is taking are hurting the welfare of Throughout the year in his Twitter activity the Indian farmers. businessman has emphasized his commitments to sustainable energy, making his voice influential through 138.8K 66.7M followers followers his large social media following.

50.1M followers

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez The representative was actively advocating the Green New Deal proposal from the public housing perspective, as well as emphasising the importance and priority of clean and renewable energy.6

12.6 M followers