Urbanization and Its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, North East, Nigeria 2Dept. of Surveying An

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, North East, Nigeria

1Jimme, M.A (PhD), 2Musa, A.A. (PhD) and 1Sambo, G.H. (PhD) 1Dept. of Geography, University of Maiduguri, Borno State, North East, Nigeria. 2Dept. of Surveying and Geo-informatics, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola,

Abstract

The study assesses the spatial growth and changes in land use in Maiduguri Metropolis and its effects on the environment. Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper + images for 1975, 1987, 1999 and 2012 respectively of the area were used in this research. Taking 1975 as base year, the images of the different dates (1987, 1999 and 2012) were resampled and processed to same pixel size (30m), and projected coordinate UTM system (Minna Datum, Clarke 1880 Ellipsoid of Zone 33). This method allowed flexibility of all the images to be in common processing ground and overlay. The generated maps and images of the study area were classified and analyzed. Supervised image classification was used to categorize different land uses and detects all the built-up areas. Two classes (built-up and others) were identified in the supervised image classification method (SICM) and also used to detect change in the area. The findings confirmed a sharp increase in the urban area due to large scale development on the natural drainages. The areal extent of the city has increased from 43km2 in 1975 to 145.4km2 in 2012 thus, aggravating environmental problems such as flash floods and inundation, poor solid waste disposal and urban heat island in the metropolis. The occurrence and the effects of the floods were found to be more devastating in areas where natural drainage networks existed but were replaced by residential buildings due to urban sprawl. The aspect of poor solid waste disposal on the other hand has been a general problem, in most parts of the metropolis, while the urban heat island is mostly experienced in the city center where there are large commercial and vehicular activities. The paper recommends for improved land use planning; raising awareness of the residents, providing more drainage and continued vulnerability mapping, improving the functionality and capacity of the agencies responsible for flood and solid waste management among others.

Keywords: Borno, Environment, Maiduguri, Metropolis and North East

Introduction

The UN projects that the world's urban population will grow by 1.8 percent per year and by 2.3 percent per year in developing countries from 2007 to 2025. In fact, by 2020, the world's rural population will cease growing altogether and begin to decline. In part, the world's urban population will continue to grow simply because towns and villages not considered urban today will grow over time. Equally important, migration to urban areas can be expected to increase as economies grow and the likelihood of earning a higher income in cities increases (United Nations Population Division, 2009). Much rural-to-urban migration will take place as a result of hardship,

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 as the rural and landless poor make their way to cities and towns in the hope of finding employment opportunities. In developing countries, many urban residents live in settlements with little access to road, limited availability of electricity, and little or no access to clean water or basic sanitation. In developed countries, the rural population, on the other hand, often has the same access to amenities and services as urban areas and is almost indistinguishable from the urban other than by location or size of place. The world is rapidly becoming more urban; the number of mega-cities in the developing world will grow over the next few decades as cities such as Kinshasa, Lagos and Jakarta are projected to grow to well over 10 million people by 2025.

Urban development has increased dramatically in recent decades, and this increase is projected to continue (Alig, Kline and Lichtensten, 2004). In another projection, the United Nations projected that half of the world's population would live in urban areas at the end of 2008 (Associated Press, 2008). It is predicted that by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed world will be urbanized (The Economist, 2012). That is equivalent to approximately 3 billion urbanites by 2050, much of which will occur in Africa and Asia (UNFPA, 2013). Notably, the United Nations has also recently projected that nearly all global population growth from 2015 to 2030 will be absorbed by cities, about 1.1 new urbanites over the next 15 years. The phenomenon has been closely linked to modernization, industrialization and the sociological process of rationalization. Urbanization creates enormous social, economic and environmental changes, which provide an opportunity for sustainability with the “potential to use resources more efficiently, to create more sustainable land use and to protect the biodiversity of natural ecosystems.” Urbanization rapidly spread across the Western world and, since the 1950s, it has begun to take hold in the developing world as well (Cohen, 2015). At the turn of the 20th century, just 15% of the world population lived in cities. Unfortunately in order to create an urbanized area, a natural environment must be destroyed. Urbanization and human activity within an urban system produces many destructive and irreversible effects on natural environments such as climate change, air pollution, sediment and soil erosion, increased flooding magnitude and loss of habitat.

Maiduguri the Borno State capital is a fast growing urban area. Over the years, rapid changes have been noted in its physical extent, population size and land use. A new pattern is appearing in the spatial characteristics of the city (Waziri, 2009). New areas are built up, while certain areas change in land use type, building structures and so on. Under the British system of indirect rule, the town remained almost wholly traditional and grew slowly, but with the creation of the states under the Federal Military Government in 1968 and with the selection of Maiduguri as the state capital, the town grew rapidly. According to Max report (1976) and Kawka (1997), some areas that were reserved for forest; agriculture and wild life park are now fully developed as residential area. Thus, in recent times, the city as an urban center is witnessing an unprecedented growth in physical structures. This has resulted in the turning of large hectares of open land to residential and business areas without equal emphasis on the construction of drainages. The spatial growth has equally contributed to other environmental problems. This paper, therefore, examines urbanization and its effects on the environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, and Nigeria.

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria

Description of the Study Area

Maiduguri is located between latitude 11o 40’N and 11o 44’N and longitude 13o05’E to 13o14’ E. It covers a total area of 543km2, which makes it the largest urban centre in the Northeastern region of Nigeria (Daura, 2002), which now extends into MMC, Jere, Konduga and parts of Mafa Local Government Areas (Kawka, 2002). The area is developed on young sedimentary rocks with a relatively flat terrain sloping towards the Lake Chad with an average relief of 290 masl and 350 masl (Onlinenigeria, 2003). Maiduguri lies on and at the bottom of the Bama Ridge. The area is drained by River Ngadda and the Ngadda Bul (Mala, Maryah and Ali,2009). It is characterized by low precipitation (650 mm3) and high evaporation (Waziri, 2009). The mean monthly temperature is always above 20°C, reaching up to 47°C in April. The climate of the area is affected by the North East Trade Winds and the South West Monsoons. The soils of Maiduguri are of aeolian origin which includes vertisol, fluvisol, brown and reddish brown, regosols, hydromorphic and alluvial soils (Daura, Gisilambe and Waziri,2001). The 2015 projected population was estimated to be over 1,112,449 as a result of influx of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) (World Atlas, 2016).

Materials and Methods

The data used in this study included Landsat Multispectral Scanner – MSS (1975) downloaded from USGS Earth Explore/Glovis, Max Lock landuse map 1976, sourced from Borno State Urban Planning and Development Board, Landsat Thematic Mapper (1987), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus – ETM+ (1999) downloaded from USGS Earth Explore/Glovis and Google image 2012 from Google Earth, of the study area. The MSS (1975) covering path 185-row 052 and Max Lock landuse map (1976) were used as baseline data to determine the initial spatial extent and for comparison as they are almost the same period. Landsat Thematic Mapper (1987) and ETM+ (1999) of the same path 185-row 052 were downloaded from USGS Earth Explore/Glovis and Google image 2012 from Google Earth of the study area.

The rate and extent of expansion of the study area were determined from Landsat TM, ETM+ and Quick Bird of different dates using the popular Supervised Image Classification Method (SICM). The study adopted maximum likelihood classifier method based on the distances towards class means and the variance-covariance matrix of each class. Additionally, since it was based on the assumption that spectral values of training pixels are statistically distributed according to a Multi-variate Normal (Gaussian) Probability density function, the method was opted. All the spatial data were re-sampled and projected to common coordinate system: Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection system, with Clark 1880 ellipsoid, Minna datum and zone 33 to allow overlay and assessment of all corresponding pixels of the dates.

In terms of visual colour interpretation of features, standard, dynamic, 24 Bit RGB and 24 Bit HSI was used to create multispectral band colour composite that was carried into sample sets in ILWIS 3.3 Academic. The study considered the 24-Bit RGB for its simplicity and its representation as a true colour composite of the features in the image. Four images at different times (1975, 1987, 1999 and 2012) were used for the extraction of urban land use of the study area. Three bands (5, 4 and 3) of the four images were used for the colour composite. Band 3 (the red band) was passed through the red filter, while bands 4 (near infra-red) and 5 (mid infra-red) were passed through the green and blue filters – i.e. using RGB. This combination produced image in

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 colour, used for easy understanding of the actual land use classes of interest (built-up area). The standard colour composite was used for the interpretation of (built-up). The choice of RGB was preferred because many studies such as Maathuis (2004) and Koolhoven, Hendrike and Nieuwenhuis (2007) have proved the method as one of the best. The values of the built-up area (mean digital pixel numbers: 73.8 for band 3; 70.7 for band 4; and 115.6 for band 5) were identified and strictly used for separation of the two classes. Therefore, on band 3 the mean digital number for built-up area was 73.8; band 4 (near infra-red wavelength, the mean digital number for built- up area was 70.7; and finally band 5 (mid-infrared wavelength, the mean digital number for built- up area was 115.6). Any other values referred to other class. The study, therefore, used the mean of digital values of each band to classify and extract the built-up areas. The areas were then converted into aerial extent from statistics module of ILWIS. The same method was used for all images (1975, 1987, 1999 and 2012). Image differences were produced between 1975 and 1987; 1999 and 1987; 2012 and 1999.To update the urban built-up area, quick bird satellite image (January, 2012) of Maiduguri and environs was used. The image was georeferenced, not only for overlay of other spatial features, but also to compute the extent of built-up area. After the image was georeferenced in ILWIS software, a polygon layer was created to delineate built-up area. The polygon area was computed as the aerial extent of the city. The computation of the area was made from ILWIS statistics operation. Supervised image classification was used to detect all the built- up areas. The built-up areas were used to calculate the spatio-temporal growth in Maiduguri urban, impact of the growth in terms of population, aerial growth and new artificial drainage channels to drain excess run-off were examined. The entire Maiduguri Metropolis urban expansions of different dates (1987, 1999 and 2012) were super-imposed in one image (Figure 8). The Red, Forest Green and Green signify surface built-up area in 2012, 1999 and 1987 respectively. GPS map 76CSx with ±3m accuracy was used in georeferencing the quickbird image (2012). Six control points were collected with the GPS in the field and the GPS UTM records were used to georeference the quickbird image.

Results and Discussion of Findings

Population Growth

Maiduguri Metropolis within the last decades has witnessed a very large population explosion and pattern of population growth as a result of the migration from rural to urban centers because of the perceived improvement in living conditions in urban areas and availability of infrastructure. Maiduguri’s population increase between 1910 and 1919 was moderate, as the population grew by 2.7 percent per annum. The annual growth rate for the next decade was higher. It reached 5.4 percent. This led to an expansion of the built up area into the rural hinterland. The size of Maiduguri in 1924 was 3.4 km2, in 1957, it was 4.4 km2 in 1970, it was 4.6 Km2 and in 1963, it was 4.5 km2 (Fig. 1). The approximate population densities for 1924 was about 4,500 persons per kilometer square, the figure rose to 12,400 per / km2 in 1952 and then to 19,500 per/km2 in 1963 and within forty years the population density quadrupled. The 1973 population was estimated at 165,000 to 170, 000. The past rate of growth based on the 1963 census has been about 7% per annum and in 1973 it was estimated about 10% per annum. Following the trend, perhaps the most significant changes in the population occurred between 1967 and 1991. With the drought episodes of the mid 1970s and 1980s, the rate of rural-urban migration has increased and the in-migration has more than doubled (Omoja, 1997). The drought phase of the period 1974- 1984 and the social distress and the civil war in Chad republic made thousands of refugees to flee

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria to Maiduguri from the immediate distressed areas within the State, and from Niger, Chad and Cameroon Republics (Thambyahpillay, 1993). During this period, the annual population growth rate of Maiduguri has been put at 5 percent per annum by the National Population Commission, while the growth rate of the rural areas of Borno is said to be 2.5 percent per annum (Engmann, 1991). However, the population results of the 1991 and 2006 census in the area revealed that the total population of Maiduguri was 653,401 people in 1991 and 140,402 households and by 2006, the population rose to 1.275million people in the city and its rural fringes (NPC, 2007) (Fig. 2). Although, detailed population of enumeration areas and other units are yet to be available, using population figures from Kawka (2002), the projected total population of the two LGAs which form Maiduguri city based on the 2006 census in 2011 is 956,095. Therefore, Yerwa/Maiduguri contains 24 % of the population of Borno State on a land size less than 1% of the total land area of the State.

Land use pattern

In Maiduguri Metropolis today, there are generally eight landuse types. These include residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, agricultural, recreational, institutional and public open spaces. The city is primarily a human settlement, therefore, residential land use mainly consists of all forms of human dwellings. The intensity of residential houses, however, reduces as one moves out of the city centre. The existing land use before the Max lock proposal was well adhered to as all structures were constructed according to their specifications (Fig. 9). The proposed land use plan of the city categorized the area into residential, institutional, services and open space uses. The areas earmarked for residential buildings consist of high, medium and low density areas (Fig. 10). The institutional land use comprised of educational, defense as well as public service and administration. The level of implementation of the land use plan can be described as fair as most designated areas were developed into the purpose they were reserved for. However, areas designated as open spaces (Public Open Space, Agricultural Production and land to remain undeveloped) in the proposed land use were transformed into residential areas in the current land use. For example, the public open spaces reserved along the two major rivers are now occupied by residential buildings, so also are the agricultural production areas mostly at the city periphery, where some outskirts villages transformed into nucleus of high residential density. Areas to remain undeveloped were also not spared, as most of them were since demarcated for both residential and industrial layouts. Although, the plan is expected to be reviewed after every ten years, up till date, the Maiduguri master plan has not been updated even once either by the ministry of land and survey or by the Borno State Urban Development Board. Although, the existing land use in 1976 shows a well patterned land use, this has been distorted by fragmentation in all the newly sprang wards.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

y = 25.783x - 51.524 R² = 0.8238y = 25.783x - 51.524 R² = 0.8238

E x t e n t

Period (Year) Source: Data Analysis, (2014) Fig. 1: Spatial growth of Maiduguri metropolis (1924-2012)

The findings in figures 3 and 4 revealed that much of the expansion in Maiduguri urban were recorded especially at the hitherto periphery areas which include University of Maiduguri (Unimaid) and the surroundings, Bulumkutu/Ngomari area, areas along Gamboru Ngala and Baga roads, Brigadier Mai Malari and Giwa Barrack areas, some patches of land area between Biu and Damboa road and other suburbs. The noticeable developments around the University up north of Ngomari Costain were mainly to cater for the ever increasing demand of accommodation, mostly for the University students. Some residential areas were initially designed by the Ministry of Land and Survey or the Maiduguri Metropolitan Council and allocated to citizens to build which includes Gwange ward created in the 1950s and Bulumkutu which was built during the 1970s. On the fringes of the city, native farm owners sold out their farms to the growing city at different times. Some forest reserves have also given way to residential use as seen along Lagos Street, Jiddari and Dala. Some characteristics of such areas are narrow streets, poorly aligned houses and poor building structures. Umarari, Bulabulin Ngarannam, London ciki and Zannari are examples of such areas. However, some areas of predominant commercial structures can be identified in the city.

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria

Source: Adopted and modified from Kawka (2002) Fig. 2: Population growth trend of Maiduguri metropolis (1910-2011).

Source: Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) Fig. 3: Maiduguri satellite image of 1975

In Maiduguri Metropolis, a vast area is occupied by institutions and offices such as the State and Federal Secretariats, tertiary institutions, day and boarding secondary schools, Police

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

College, and some offices. Notable offices and institutions are the Federal Government College, the Teaching Hospital and the University of Maiduguri, Mohammed Goni College of Legal and Islamic Studies, College of Agriculture, the Chad Basin Development Authority, the Lake Chad Research Institute, Maimalari Army Barrack and the Maximum Security Prisons among others. The city is crisscrossed by several tarred roads, first built in 1945, of different width. Transport terminals in the city include the Maiduguri International Airport built in 1937, the railway terminus built in 1965 and motor parks which include Baga, Muna, Kano, Borno Express and Bama.

Source: Geospatial Database, Department of Geography, University of Maiduguri (2014) Fig. 4: Colour composite RGB/743 to Conspicuously show built-up areas (in purple)

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria

Source: Geospatial Database, Department of Geography, University of Maiduguri (2014) Fig. 5: Maiduguri metropolis in 1987

Source: Geospatial Database, Department of Geography, University of Maiduguri, 2014) Figure 6: Maiduguri metropolis 1999 (Pixel size of Landsat TM is 30m and Landsat ETM+ is 28.5m with 15m panchromatic (Band 8).

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Source: Laboratory Work, (2014) Fig. 7: Maiduguri metropolis as at (2012).

Source: Laboratory Work, (2014) Fig. 8: Spatial growth of Maiduguri metropolis (2012, 1999 and 1987).

In designing residential layouts in Maiduguri, the Ministry of Land and Survey categorized areas into high, medium and low density of housing per unit area based on the size of the plots. However, houses in the traditionally built up areas in Maiduguri city are seldom regular in size

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria and shape. There were no regulations for ideal size of a house when the city started. This development resulted in the unification of the different core settlements of Maiduguri in the 1980s to form a single urban body that reached the size of over 145.4 Km2 in January, 2012. This expansion has led to an urban intrusion into the peri urban environs far beyond the original town borders. This agrees and conforms to earlier studies by Waziri, 2009 and Ikusemoran and Jimme (2014). This was followed by a significant change in land use that has increased the sealed surface by reducing the infiltration rate of rain water (Figures 5, 6 and 7). However, due to poor government attention on land matters, even the planned areas are now grossly distorted. So it is difficult today to give a clear demarcation between planned and unplanned areas.

Fig. 9: Maiduguri existing land use, 1976. Adopted from Max Lock, 1976.

Fig. 10: Maiduguri proposed land use. Adopted from Max Lock, 1976.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

By classifying Maiduguri into wards, this political mapping of the settlement has succeeded in bringing together both planned and unplanned areas, making it difficult to conveniently categorize these wards in accordance with their characteristics. This rapid urbanization within these planned areas has made their drainage systems ineffective because the flood water is beyond their carrying capacity. The expansion of these wards is uncontrolled and disorganized because there are no regards for building standards, drainage, sanitation, road access and public utility services.

Refuse Generation and Disposal by Residents

The issue of dumping refuse indiscriminately may not be unconnected with the lack of planning. The perception of residents on poor refuse management, reveal that the suburb of Dala Lawanti recorded the highest percentage value of 50% pertaining to poor refuse management. Those between the values of 20% and 40% were Bale Galtimari, Gwange III, Mashamari, Hausari, Bolori II and Shehuri North. Wards that were 20% and below are Mairi, Gwange I, Gwange II, Gamboru, Limanti, Bulabulin, Maisandari and Old Maiduguri. Others are Ngomari AP, Bolori I, Mafoni, Fezzan and Jabbamari. It is difficult to establish whether the distribution of this response has taken a particular pattern in terms of the densities in the wards. However, the lowest value of 0% was recorded at the center wards of Limanti and Fezzan, which may suggest disparity between suburbs and city centre. The findings also showed that residents dispose their refuse in any available points which include drainages. Most collection centers have been converted to other uses thereby giving rise to the problem of ineffective refuse disposal in the city. The less efficient a city’s refuse collection method, the greater the load on the surrounding environment. In all the sampled wards, waste materials are improperly disposed of near large storm water drainages and road sides. The effort of personnel responsible for the evacuation of refuse from the areas was found to be ineffective (34.3%). It was not until recently that vehicles and containers for refuse collection and disposal were provided by government according to a respondent. The vehicles were, however, inadequate to serve the whole metropolis. Large solid waste dumps are noticed all over the metropolis both during the dry and rainy season. The situation is worst during the rainy season where water running off these impervious surfaces tends to pick up gasoline, motor oil, heavy metals, trash and other pollutants from roadways and parking lots, as well as fertilizer and pesticides from lawns and contaminates water sources. This has been confirmed by Laws and Lauren, 2004 and EPA, 2005.

Urban Heat Island

One major problem of urbanization in Maiduguri is the urban heat island. The main cause of the urban heat island effect is from the modification of land surfaces (Solecki, Rosenzweig, Parshall, Pope, Clark, Cox, and Wiencke, 2005). As a population center grows, it tends to expand its area and increase its average temperature. There are concerns raised about possible contribution from urban heat islands to global warming. Research on China (Huang, 2015) indicates that urban heat island effect contributes to climate warming by about 30%. For example, dark surfaces absorb significantly more solar radiation, which causes urban concentrations of roads and buildings to heat more than suburban and rural areas during the day materials commonly used in urban areas for pavement and roofs, such as concrete and asphalt, have significantly different thermal bulk properties (including heat capacity and thermal conductivity) and surface radiative properties (albedo and emissivity) than the surrounding rural areas. This causes a change in the energy budget

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria of the urban area, often leading to higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas. Surfaces in the urban areas tend to warm faster than those of the surrounding rural areas. By virtue of their high heat capacities, urban surfaces act as a giant reservoir of heat energy. For example, concrete can hold roughly 2,000 times as much heat as an equivalent volume of air. UHIs have the potential to directly influence the health and welfare of urban residents. Within the United States alone, an average of 1,000 people dies each year due to extreme heat. Studies has shown that the mortality rate during a heat wave increases exponentially with the maximum temperature, an effect that is exacerbated by the UHI (Buechley et al, 1972). Major areas where heat islands were observed in the metropolis are the Post Office, Monday Market, Custom and West end Round About due to traffic congestions as the areas serves as convergence zones for a lot of vehicles and tricycles and use of generators for various business more especially during the day in the dry season. Such phenomenon has been confirmed by several studies (Oluseyi, 2007; Adinna et al, 2009; Adebayo et al, 2017; Tanko et al, 2017 and Jimme et al, 2018).

Effects of urban expansion on flash floods

Urbanization generally has the effect of increasing the volume of runoff coupled with inadequate urban drainage facilities or poor drainage management. Urbanization generally increases the size and frequency of floods and exposes communities to increasing flood hazards. Flooding in the metropolis is therefore not just related to heavy rainfall alone but, it is also related to changes in the built-up areas which increases runoff from hard surfaces, inadequate waste management, inadequate and silted up drainage systems. The rapid growth and development of Maiduguri has brought about land use changes which also affected hydrological regimes resulting in frequent flooding as shown in Table 5. Furthermore, there was the problem of lack of waste collection sites which also contributed to dumping of waste into drainage channels. The most important structure of expansion that was noticed in the map (Fig. 8), was that Maiduguri urban is rapidly expanding towards the periphery areas of the city.

The DEM based generated flood map shows that the total land mass of Maiduguri metropolis is 145.4 square kilometers, out of which 40.17 square kilometers are categorized as a very high risk flash flood and inundation area, 41.92 square kilometers, moderately risk area, while 63.31 square kilometers, as a low risk area. This is also attributable to the process of urbanization, lack of drainages, blocked drainages and entrapment of flood water even on higher elevations.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Fig.11 Flood Risk Vulnerable Areas

Fig.12 Flood Risk Wards Table 5: Spatial growth of Maiduguri over the years in km2 Year Area(ha) Area km2 Percentage Change

1975 4260 42.60 -

1987 8868.47 88.69 51.96

1999 11026.71 110.27 19.57 2012 14540 145.4 24.16 TOTAL 34435.18 344.36 -

Source: Data Analysis, (2014)

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria

From 1975, the metropolis has expanded by 52% in 1987, 20% in 1999 and 24 % in 2012 (Table 5). The increase in the surface runoff is may be due to increased anthropogenic activities over the years from 1975 to 1987, 1999 and 2012 in these area in the form of development of infrastructures and residential buildings in once forested and marshy areas. The percentage changes within the years 1975 to 1987, 1999 and 2012 clearly explain the effect of land cover changes in the area (Fig. 8 and Table 5). Jimme and Bashir (2009) had reported that some areas that were marked as green zones which were considered unsuitable for even farming have all now been occupied by people and it is now associated with devastating flash floods and inundations; forcing people to look towards the periphery for the construction of their houses. Human use of land in the urban environment has increased both the magnitude and frequency of floods. In the process of urbanization, raw land is converted and covered with pavement. This causes an increase in the amount of runoff after rainfall leading to flash floods. As an urban area, much of the land surface is covered by roads and buildings have less capacity to store rainfall. The permeable soil is replaced by impermeable surfaces such as roads, roofs, parking lots, and sidewalks that store little water, reduce infiltration of water into the ground, and accelerate runoff. It has been proved by earlier studies (WMO, 2008) that urbanization increase runoff from 2 to 6 times over what would occur on natural terrain because rain water has less chance to be absorbed. Thus, storm water rushes down the streets and areas that were never known to be frequently under water. According to Hollis (1975), small floods may be increased by 10 times by urbanization and floods with a return period of 100 years may be doubled in size by 30%.

The spatial growth of the metropolis has restricted where floodwaters flow covering large parts of the ground with roofs, roads and pavements, thus obstructing natural channels, slowing water movement to the rivers Ngadda and Ngadda Bul, more rapidly than it did under natural conditions. In old colonial Maiduguri, for example, the urban area increased between 1951 and 1989 from 7.4 to 12.2%. This high degree of surface sealing in the metropolis produces large amounts of instantaneous runoff during rainstorms. Despite the increasing population, governments have not provided adequate planning in terms of drainage and land use for the present and future developments of these areas (Jimme et al, 2016). The population of Maiduguri has equally grown from 653,401 people in 1991 to 1.275 million people in 2006 thereby aggravating flash flood and inundation in the low lying parts of the city due to increased surface runoff during torrential rainfall. The combine effects of population growth and urbanization on land use was found to have aggravated flash floods and inundation in most of the newly developed wards.

Conclusion

This study has examined urbanization in Maiduguri and the effects of urbanization on the environment. The findings of the study indicated that the areal extent of the city has increased from 43km2 in 1975 to 145.4km2 in 2012. This urbanization has generally induced flash floods, solid waste, distorted landuse and environmental pollution. The causes of the floods were largely due to excess solid waste generated and encroachment of large development into natural drainage channels in the metropolis. This encroachment, it is believed, were done without adequate provision for alternative drainage systems. Therefore, poor residential planning and inadequate management strategies could be responsible for escalating flash floods and inundation and other related problems in the city.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Recommendations

Based on the findings of the study, the following recommendations were suggested: i. The Borno State Urban Development Board (BSUDB) should monitor and ensure land use compliance by the residents in the metropolis and discourage them from building on water ways and in flood prone areas. ii. There is a strong need for the state government to embark on rapid drainage redesigning and expansion and proper channelization of urban drainages and ensure all drainages covered with strong covers or slaps. iii. The government should make plans such as drainages and culverts in the newly formed areas to curtail flash floods and inundation in the metropolis. iv. The Borno State Environmental Protection Agency should live up to their task of timely evacuation of solid waste from the communities.

References

Adebayo, F.O., Balogun, I.A., Adediyi, A.T., Olumide, A. and Abdulkareem, S.B. (2017), Assessment of Urban Heat Island over Ibadan Metropolis using Landsat& Modis, In Journal of Environment and Bioenergy, Vol.12. No.1 Pp. 62-87

Adinna, E.N., Christian, E.I. and Okoli, T. (2009). Assessment of Urban Heat Island and Possible Adaptations in Enugu Urban using Land Sat ETM, In Journal of Geography and Regional Planning. Vol. 2. No.2. Pp 30-36

Alig, R., Kline, J. and Lichtenstein, M. (2004). Determinants of Developed Area, with Projection to 2025. Landscape and Urban Planning, 69:219-234.

Associated Press (2008). "UN says half the world's population will live in urban areas by end of 2008". International Herald Tribune. 26 February 2008. Buechley, R.W., Van Bruggen, J. and Trippi, L.E. (1972). "Heat island = death island?". Environmental Research. 5 (1): 85–92.

Cohen, B. (2015). "Urbanization, City Growth, and the New United Nations Development Agenda"3 (2). Cornerstone, The Official Journal of the World Coal Industry. pp. 4–7.

Daura, M.M., Gisilanbe, A.M. and Waziri, M. (2001). Flood Plain Encroachment and Hazard Awareness in Urbanized Catchments: A Study of Ngadda Flood Plain in Maiduguri. In Daura, M.M., Ogunnika, O., Irefin, D. and Balami, D. (eds) Environment and Development. Issues in Sub- Saharan African, Seminar Series, Vol.1. Faculty of Social and Management Sciences University of Maiduguri pp 50-60.

Daura, M.M. (2002). “Maiduguri” Atlas of Nigeria in Africa Atlasses, Bietlot, Belgium. Pp 148-149

Engmann, E.V.T. (1991). “Maiduguri: Population Attributes in Semi Arid Urban Environment”. Paper Presented at the International Geographical Union, Commission on Population Geography, Symposium on “The Urban Population at Micro-Scale Warsaw, Poland, 2-7 Sept. 1991

Urbanization and its Effects on the Environment in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria

EPA (2005). US Environmental Protection Agency’s Stream Channelization, Wetlands Program Fact Sheet No. 1 Kansas City, KS http//www.epa.gov/region3/wetlands/pdf/channelizationfs04-final.pdf

Hollis, G. E. (1975). The effect of urbanization on floods of different recurrence interval. Water Resources Research 11:431–435. Huang, Q. Lu, Y. (2015). "The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China". International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 12 (8): 8773–8789. ILWIS HELP (2007). Integrated Land&Water Information System (ILWIS), 3.31 Academic, ITC Ikusemoran, M. and Jimme, M. A. (2014). Decade Assessments of Maiduguri Urban Expansion (2002 - 2012): A Geospatial Approach. Global Journal of Human Social Sciences, Geography, Geo- Sciences and Environmental Disaster Management Volume 14, Issue 2. Jimme, M.A., Bashir, A. and Adebayo, A.A. (2016) Spatial Distribution Pattern and Terrain Analysis of Urban Flash Floods and Inundated Areas in Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria. Journal of Geographic Information System, Vol. 8, pp.108 – 120

Jimme, M.A. and Bashir, A. (2009). ‘Urban Flooding and Environmental Degradation in Borno State. In Waziri, M., Kagu, A. and Monguno, A.K. (eds.) Issues in Geography of Borno State. Adamu Joji Publishers, Kano. Vol.1, No.1. Pp 6-11.

Jimme, M.A., Zulum, U. and Shettima, M.K. (2018). Geospatial Assessment of Urban Heat Island over Maiduguri Metropolis, Borno State, Northeast, Nigeria. (in press).

Kawka, R. (1997). African Urban Land Classification using Satellite Imageries: The Example of Maiduguri, N.E. Nigeria. In Daura, M.M. (1997); Issues in Environmental Monitoring in Nigeria. Later Day Maiduguri, Pp 23-28.

Kawka, R. (2002). The Physiognomic Structure of Maiduguri. In Kawka, R. (2002). From Bulamari to Yerwa Metropolitan Maiduguri. Interdisciplinary Studies on the Capital of Borno State, Nigeria. Rudiger KoppeVerlag Kolon. Pp.22-33

Koolhoven, W., Hendrikse, J., Nieuwenhuis, W., Retsios, B., Schouwenburg, M., Wang, L. and Budde, P., Njimeijer, R. (2007). Integrated Land and Water Information Systems. ILWIS 3.31 Academics, ITC

Laws, E.A. and Lauren, R. (2005)."Impact of Stream Hardening on Water Quality and Metabolic Characteristics of Waimanalo and Kane'ohe Streams, O'ahu, Hawaiian Islands". Pacific Science (University of Hawai'i Press) 58 (2). Maathuis, B.H.P. (2004). Geoinformation for Watershed Management. Refresher Training Workshop held at University of Makerere, Coordinated by Department of Water Resources, ITC, Enschede, The Netherlands.

Mala, W.B., Maryah, U.M., and Ali, M.L.A. (2009). Viability of Rainwater Harvesting in Maiduguri. In: Waziri, M., Kagu, A. and Monguno, A.K. (eds.) Issues in Geography of Borno State. AdamuJoji Publishers, Kano. Vol.1. Pp144-150.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Max, L. (1976). Maiduguri: Survey and Planning Report for the North Eastern States Government of Nigeria. Max Lock Group UK Warminster Press Ltd.

National Population Commission (NPC) (2007). 2012 Maiduguri Projected population.

Omoja, L.O. (1997). Urbanization and Environmental Problems in Maiduguri, Borno State, In Daura M.M. (1997). In Daura, M.M. (ed.) Issues in Environmental Monitoring in Nigeria. Latter Day Press, Maiduguri. Pp. 239-243,

Onlinenigeria (2003). Borno State: Physical Setting.www.onlinenigeria.com/links/ bornoadv.asp. Oluseyi, I. (2007). Assessment of Urban Heat Island of Lokoja Town and Surroundings using Landsat ETM Data. Journal of Environment Vol. 2. No. 1.

Solecki, W.D., Rosenzweig, C., Parshall, L., Pope, G., Clark, M., Cox, J. and Wiencke, M. (2005). "Mitigation of the heat island effect in urban New Jersey". Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards. 6 (1): 39–49.

Tanko, I.A., Suleiman, Y.M., Yahaya, T.I. and Kasim, A.A. (2017). Urbanization effects on the occurrence of Urban Heat Island over Kano Metropolis, Nigeria. International Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research. Vol. 8. Issue 9. Pp293-299

Thambyahpillay, G.G.R., (1983). “Palaeo Hydroclimatology of Lake Chad” Annals of Borno, Vol. 1, Pp 105-146.

The Economist (2012),"Urban life: Open-air computers". The Economist. 27 October 2012. Retrieved 20 March 2013.

UNFPA (2013)"Urbanization". UNFPA - United Nations Population Fund. United Nations Population Division, (2009) World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision Population Database, accessed online at http://esa.un.org/unup/index.asp, on Sept. 28, 2009.

Waziri, M. (2009). Spatial Pattern of Maiduguri City: Researchers’ Guide. Adamu Joji Publishers, Kano.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2008). Urban Flood Risk Management: A Tool for Integrated Flood Management Version 1.0 37WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management Urban Flood Risk Management – A Tool for Integrated Flood Management Version 1.0 38

World Atlas (2016) http://www.worldatlas.com/af/ng/bo/where-is-maiduguri.html

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria

1John Abdullahi, PhD and 2Dantata Danlami

1Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Maiduguri, PMB 1069, Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria. [email protected], 2Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Management and Social Sciences, Federal University Kashere, PMB Gombe State, Nigeria [email protected]

Abstract

The paper examines dynamics of gully erosion sites at Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria. The specific objectives are: to identify and map out areas affected by gully, examine factors responsible for gully erosion, calculate areas affected by gully, assess effects of the sinuosity of the gullies channel on the morphologies of the gully in the area. The study used primary source of data which includes field observations and measurement of depth, width, depth and length of the gully and sinuosity of the channel. The field survey was conducted to give an overview of the physical condition of the study area, including topography, vegetation and land use type. GPS points of gully sites were also taken. Land-use/land-cover types at five periods were extracted from Google earth, Landsat-TM, and ETM+. Slope and elevation information were also obtained from digital elevation model sourced from Africover portal of FAO website to determine the elevation of the zone. The study used Arc GIS software for the analysis. The findings of the study show that three major gully sites identified are Site A (Demonstration Secondary school), which covers an area of 13498.21 sqm (58.37%), gully site B (behind the Female Hostel) which covers an area of 3536.95sqm (15.30%) while gully site C behind (GOFCECON building) which accounted for 6088.58sqm (26.33%). Types of landuse/Landcover changes found in the area include plantation/trees, shrubs/grassland, build up areas, open space and gully sites. There was a significant decrease in plantation/trees and shrubs/grassland over the years from 49.02% in 2014 to 40.41% in 2018 with an increase in gully size from 0.68% in 2014 to 0.91% in 2018. The sinuosity index is 1.12 which has a significant effect on the expansion of the gully channel in the area. The paper concludes that the factors responsible for the dynamism of gully erosion in the area is a combination of interdependent mechanisms between topography, slope, soil erodibility, landuse/landcover change, which have changed over the years thereby reducing infiltration capacity, increased surface runoff on a steep slope environment. The paper recommends that a specific, scientific and systematic approach which integrates the influence of all factors observed as responsible for gully formation should be employed in the control of gullies in the area.

Keywords: Dynamics, FCE (T), Gombe, Gully erosion, GIS and Sinuosity.

Introduction

Gully erosion is defined as fluvial process through which top soil are removed along drainage channels by runoff; it is a common type of soil erosion that consists of an open, incised and unstable channel generally more than 30cm deep. Gully erosion may occur due to either natural or man-made activity in the environment which includes construction, mining, overgrazing,

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 deforestation and farming activities. The initial stage of gully erosion may begin at a small scale affecting insignificant proportion of land and will proceed to expand by headward erosion or slumping of the sidewalls of the channel banks until it devastated a large portion of land. This geomorphic process of gully erosion highly occurs in area characterized by loosed or sandy soil, bad agricultural practices, constructional activities, deforestation, overgrazing and steep slope.

Erosion is the process by which the surface of the earth gets worn down. Erosion can be caused by natural elements such as water, wind and ice. Therefore, erosion is the wearing away of the earth’s surface by the action of natural forces, such as, water, wind and ice. The loose and dissolved materials are transported from their primary locations to secondary locations. Basically, there are four types of erosion; splash, sheet, rill and gully. Splash erosion occurs when raindrops hit bare soil with enough kinetic force to break the soil aggregates. These fragments wash into soil pores and prevent water from infiltrating the soil. Water then accumulates on the surface and increases runoff which transports particles as sheet erosion. As the volume of water increases and begins to move in confined way, it develop into rill erosion and later gully erosion developed.

Nigeria as a nation is threatened by the problem of gully erosion since before 1980, and it affects both rural and urban communities. It is an environmental, ecological, economic and humanitarian disaster resulting as a result of land degradation that leads to loss of lives and properties worth millions of dollars. The estimated number of gullies in the country is put at 3,000. Areas exposed to gully erosion in the Southeastern part of Nigeria is said to be tripled from 1.33% (1,021 km2) in 1976 to about 3.7% (2,820 km2) in 2006 making the region the most susceptible region to gully erosion in the country. Gully erosion may occur as a result of continuous and heavy rainfall. The greater the duration of a rainfall, the higher the erosion potential. The impact of raindrops on the soil surface can break down soil sediments which are transported down streams. It may equally occur as a result of lack of vegetal cover caused by overgrazing, deforestation, bush burning, over cultivations, improper constructional activities Ofomata (2007). Gully erosion can also occur as a result of mining activities. Mining processes is usually carried out on the surface of the earth for the purpose of extracting mineral resources such as tin, diamond, gold, iron ore and others. During the process, artificial channels and pits are created which are later transformed into large expanse of gullies Arabi (2009). Such pits are dangerous and they serve as death traps to lives and properties. Such examples of artificial gullies as a result of mining activities are commonly found in Jos and its environs in Nigeria.

Statement of the Research Problem

Gully erosion is one of the environmental problems faced in Gombe and its environs. Several studies have been carried out on gully erosion menace in different parts of Gombe and its environs Mbaya (2012), Mbaya, Ayuba and Abdullahi (2012), Mbaya (2013), Danladi and Ray (2014), Abdullahi and Ngadda (2018). However, these studies did not focus on the gully erosion dynamics at Federal College of Education Technical Gombe. These studies looked at different aspect of gully erosion in and around Gombe town. For instance Mbaya (2012) studied gully erosion in Gombe town, Mbaya et al (2012) looked at gully erosion in Gombe and its environs, Mbaya (2013) studied inter-relations among gully variable in Gombe town, Mbaya (2016) studied socio-economic effects of gully erosion in Gombe town, Danladi and Ray looked at socio economic effects of gully erosion on land use in Gombe and Abdullahi and Nggada (2019) carried out gully erosion dynamics in Tumfure but none of these studies has specifically looked at the

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria dynamics of gully erosion in the Federal College of Education Technical Gombe. Therefore, this paper intends to analyze the dynamics of gully erosion in the College environ with a view to proffer solution to the menace of gully erosion in the area, considering the significance of the area affected by the gully to the future development of the college. The study examined the dynamics of gully erosion in Federal College of Education Technical, Gombe State, Nigeria. The specific objectives are: to identify and map out areas affected by gully erosion, factors responsible for gully, the landuse /landcover changes from 2014-2018, areas affected by gully and the effects of the sinuosity of the gully channels on the morphology of the gullies.

Description of Study Area

The study area lies between latitude Latitude10O 10’’ N to 10O 50’ 30’’ N and Longitude 11o 01’E to 11o 40’E (Fig.1). The study area, Federal College of Education Technical, Gombe, is located inside Gombe town, the State capital. Gombe town occupied an area of about 45km2(Ministry of Land and Survey, Gombe, 2008). It is well connected by road to other parts of the country such as Bauchi, Jos, Yola, Jalingo, Biu- Maiduguri and Potiskum.The climate of Gombe is characterized by six (6) months of dry season, alternating with a rainy season of six (6) months and mean annual precipitation of 835 mm3.The mean annual temperature is about 26°C. The relative humidity has the same pattern, being 94% in Augustand reducing drastically to about 10% during the harmattan period (Balzerek, Werner, Jürgen, Klaus-martin, and Markus, 2003).

Rainfall is one of the most vital determinant factor in triggering soil erosion and gully formation and development. Its average values only, are not sufficient to determine the potentiality of single rainstorms events. Study carried out on runoff and soil erosion on Bama Beach Ridge (BBR) by (Nyanganji, 1997) on test plots with sandy top soils established that runoff and sediment transport is only obtainable when the total depth of rainfall exceeds 10 mm3supported by rainfall intensities greater than 0.2 mm3/min.

The study area is characterized by spectacular landform features which include the Gombe and Lijji hills which form part of the Benue Trough popularly known as the Zambuk ridge (Mbaya, (2016). The stratigraphy of the area consists of the Kerri Kerri formation, the alluvium, Yolde formation, the Bima Sandstone, Gombe formation, Pindiga formation and the basement rocks as the oldest formations (Mbaya, 2016).

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Fig. 1: The Study Area Source: GIS Analysis

Conceptual Framework

Concept of Land Degradation

The concept of environmental degradation was used in this study. Environmental degradation is the reduction or deterioration of the quality of the environment through the pollution and depletion of natural resources such as land, water and air through man’s activities which include farming, mining, deforestation, bush burning, overgrazing, fishing, hunting, and destruction of ecosystems and the extinction of wildlife (Egboka, and Okpoko1984).

Environmental degradation is the process through which the various components of the environment such as water (hydrosphere), air (atmosphere), and land (lithosphere), are continuously polluted, overexploited and damaged. Environmental degradation can mainly be viewed under: ecosystem imbalance, forest depletion, freshwater pollution, soil degradation, air pollution and Global warming (Akagbue and Uma 1987).

Environmental degradation can be seen as any serious disturbance or significant change to the environment that is perceived to be disastrous or undesirable. Environmental degradation is regarded as one of the ten threats that has officially recognized by the high level threat panel of

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria the United Nations (https://www.researchgate.net).Environmental degradation is viewed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction as “the reduction of the capacity of the environment to meet social and ecological aims and objectives (Arabi, Nur and Dewu, 2009). In other words, when the environment becomes less valuable or destroyed, environmental degradation is said to occur. There are various forms of environmental degradation. When habitats are damaged, biodiversity is lost, or natural resources are depleted, the environment is degraded. Environmental degradation can occur as a result of natural processes, or through human activities that are harmful to the environment. The course for concern at present is the loss of land to gully erosion at Federal College of Education Technical Gombe.

Literature Review

In order to combat environmental degradation, environmental studies are necessary. Environmental studies are the systematic study of human interaction with their environment. It is a broad field of study that includes the natural environment, social environments, organizational environments, and the relationships between them. Current environmental problems have evolved into a complex set of interdisciplinary issues involving ecological, political, economic, social, as well as physical and biological considerations Mbaya (2016).

Necessary steps are to be planned after environmental studies and proper implementation of those suggested steps is essential. The environmental imbalance gives rise to various environmental problems. It is our duty to remove the environmental imbalances by proper implementation of the necessary remedial acts to make our environment cleaner, safer, and greener that could support sustainable development (Mbaya, 2012). Several studies in different parts of Nigeria and Gombe in particular have attributed the formation and development of gullies to the influence of both human activities on natural and geologic processes, while others suggested that gullies are associated with concentrated runoff processes down slope. For instance, Nwajide and Hogue (1979) attributed the causes of gullies to the combination of physical, biotic and anthropogenic factors while Egboka and Nwankwor (1986) observed that gullies are caused by hydrogeological, hydrogeochemical and geotechnical properties of the rocks in the area. Based on the studies carried out by Okagbue and Uma (1987) are in agreement with Nwajide and Hogue on the causes of gullies in South Eastern Nigeria. Research work carried out on the effectiveness of gully erosion control measures in Gombe metropolis Mbaya (2012 and 2016) and Danladi and Ray (2014) revealed that most of the previous uncontrolled or partially checked gullies have increased in length to 131.02 km as against the 121.50 km in 2003. Out of the 131.02 km length of gully erosion inventory in Gombe town in 2015, only 41.32 km length has been controlled and 35.92 km under engineering control method representing 87%; 5.1 km (12.3%) length of vegetation and only 0.3km under stone wall control measures (Gombe State, Ministry of Water Resources and Environment, 2003).

It has been observed that Tropical forest constitutes seven percent (7%) of world land surface area, yet it contains over 50% of all plant and animal species (Danladi and Ray 2014). Almost half of all tropical forests have been destroyed. By 2020, three quarters may be lost if proper and urgent measures have not been put in place. In addition to that, about 20–50% of global wetlands might have been damaged (54% thus far in the US, with an additional 115,000 acres/year), (World Bank 1990).

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

The undulating nature of Gombe terrain which is characterized with steep slopes that generates concentrated runoff from steep lands, flowing into cleared drainage depressions. The steeper the slope, the lesser the infiltration of water, hence, soil erodes more on steeper slopes than on grounds that have mild slope. This happens more on area where there is increase speed of runoff.

The unstable nature of soils along gully channels makes lighter particles of soil such as very fine sand, silt, clay and organic matter to be easily eroded by the rain splash and runoff water, while for more larger sand and gravel particles to be washed away, it requires heavy raindrops and heavy flow of runoff. These are some of the characteristics of the processes that were observed around the Federal College of Education Technical Gombe and its environs.

It has been observed that since the beginning of the nineteenth century, there was a significant increase in the needs of the world’s population associated with modern technological advances which have altered our natural environment. In quest for survival, man has overexploited the natural resources to an extent that it leads to losing the environmental balance in the ecosystem which leads to environmental degradation.

Materials and Methods

Data used for this study were obtained from field survey, satellite/goggle earth images and topographical maps. The field survey was conducted to give an overview of the physical condition of the study area, including topography, vegetation and land use type. Coordinates of gully sites were also taken using Geographic Information System (GPS). Land-use/land-cover types at five periods were extracted from goggle earth, Landsat-TM, and ETM+. Slope and elevation information were also obtained from a digital elevation model sourced from Africover portal of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) website to determine the elevation of the area. Boundary of the study area, streams and various category of road networks were generated from topographic map on scale of 1:50,000 through manual digitizing. TM data has spatial resolution of 28.5 m and includes two middle-infrared and one thermal channel. These high-resolution scanners have seven spectral bands with a swath of 185-by-185 km area. For the study area, a single scene, path 170 and row 60, taken in 2014 and 2015 by TM sensor on board Landsat 5. The image of 2016, 2017 and 2018 was obtained with ETM+ Landsat-7, carried on-board the Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) instrument. Both images were obtained from the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) online.

Accuracy Assessment

To verify the quality and reliability of the classification exercise, accuracy assessment test was performed. Topographic maps and Global Positioning System (GPS) were used to obtain ground control pointfor accuracy test. A total of 20 points was obtained randomly within the study area.

Post classification

In this process, images of every year was classified and labeled separately. The classified images were then compared to determine the change that has taken place between the two images using a change matrix. This made it possible to extract the changed areas and by how much through

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria the computation of change maps and change matrix statistics. With this information obtained, it was easier to quantify and explain the change in each landuse class.

Sinuosity of the Gully Channel

Sinuosity (S) deals with the meandering nature of the river. It is the ratio between actual length and the straight length of the river. Channel sinuosity = OL EL Where OL = observed (actual) path of a stream. EL = expected straight path of a stream. The sinuosity indices of the gully channel reaches were calculated for the years 2018. According to sinuosity index, channels can be categorized into three classes: Straight (SI < 1.05), Sinuous (SI 1.05–1.5), and Meandering (SI > 1.5)

Result of Findings

Areas affected by gully erosion

The study revealed that the areas affected by gully erosion were numbered as A, B and C as shown in Table 1, 2 and Fig. 2. Gully site A is located at the Demonstration Secondary School which covers an area of 13498.21m2 (58.37%). Gully site B is located right behind the female hostel which covers an area of 3536.95m2 (15.30%) while gully site C which is located close to GOFCECON building which accounted for 6088.58m2 (26.33%). This shows that gully site A is the largest, followed by gully site C while gully site B is the smallest.

Table 1: Showing Areas Affected by Gully Erosion

Gully_name Area_ha area_m2 Area (%) Gully A 1.35 13498.21 58.37 Gully B 0.35 3536.95 15.30 Gully C 0.61 6088.58 26.33 2.31 23123.74 100.00 Source: GIS Analysis, 2019

Table 2: Showing Gully Coordinates, Elevation and Processes

Site North East Elevation Description A 10o 18’ 55.6’’ 11o 09’ 10.6’’ 503m GOFCECON B 10o 18’ 54.2’’ 11o 09’ 13.4’’ 502m Footpath crossing C 10o 18’ 54.6’’ 11o 09’ 12.8’’ 501m Sandstone checking expansion D 10o 18’ 55.1’’ 11o 09’ 15.5’’ 494m Soil creep E 10o 18’ 54.8’’ 11o 09’ 20.0’’ 493m Rockfall F 10o 18’ 55.0’’ 11o 09’ 26.1’’ 484m Soil creep G 10o 18’ 55.8’’ 11o 09’ 29.7’’ 478m Ending point at Eastern Fence Source: Fieldwork, 2019

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Fig 2: Showing Gully locations

Factors responsible for gully erosion

The findings of the study reveals that the factors responsible for the formation and development of gully erosion in Federal College of Education Technical Gombe are interdependent in nature which combine both natural (topography, geology, soil, vegetation) and man-made factors (constructional activities without proper and adequate drainage system, landuse/lancover change, overgrazing and poor farming practices). The findings of this paper is similar to works carried out by Nwajide and Hogue (1979) who established that gullies are formed and developed as a result of the combination of physical, biotic and anthropogenic factors. Similarly, Okagbue and Uma (1987), Ezechi and Okagbue (1989) in their separate studies agreed with Nwajide and Hogue on the causes of gullies in South Eastern Nigeria to be both natural and man-made factors.

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria

Landuse and Landcover Change from 2014-2018 (5 years)

The study shows that the types of landuse/Lancover changes found in FCE(T) Gombe includes Plantation/trees, shrubs/grassland, build up areas, open space and gully sites as shown in Figures 3, 4, 5,6 and 7 and Tables3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 respectively. The paper shows that there was a significant decrease in plantation/trees and shrubs/grassland over the years from 49.02 % in 2014 to 40.41% in 2018 with an increase in gully size from 0.68% in 2014 to 0.91% in 2018.The paper further reveals that there was an increase in open space from 41.27% in 2014 to 50.71% in 2018 and there was equally an increase in build up areas from 2.07% in 2014 to 2.57% in the year 2018. This could be attributed to the developmental projects ongoing in the college.

Source: GIS Analysis Figure 3: Landuse and Landcover Change in 2018

Table 3: Landuse and Landcover change in 2018

Landuse Area_sqm Area_Ha % Plantation/Trees 151074.04 15.10 5.39 Shrubs/Grassland 1131462.06 113.15 40.41 Open space 1420009.11 142.00 50.71 Built up 72043.50 7.20 2.57 Gully 2559.74 2.55 0.91 2799957.26 280.00 100.00 Source: GIS Analysis

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Source: GIS Analysis 2019 Figure 4: Showing Landuse and Landcover Change in 2017

Table 4: Landuse and Landcover Change in 2017

Landuse Area_sqm Area_Ha % Plantation/Trees 159959.53 15.99 5.71 Shrubs/Grassland 1132086.41 113.21 40.43 Open space 1419540.53 141.95 50.70 Built up 64504.75 6.45 2.30 Gully 24016.03 2.40 0.86 2800107.26 280.00 100.00

Source: GIS Analysis 2019

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria

Source: GIS Analysis 2019

Figure 5: Showing Landuse and Landcover Change in 2016

Table 5: Landuse and Landcover Change in 2016

Landuse Area_sqm Area_Ha % Plantation/Trees 161129.08 16.11 5.75 Shrubs/Grassland 1304224.44 130.42 46.58 Open space 1247657.80 124.77 44.56 Built up 63990.04 6.40 2.29 Gully 23043.71 2.30 0.82 2800045.07 280.00 100.00

Source: GIS Analysis 2019

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Source: GIS Analysis 2019 Figure 6: Showing Landuse and Landcover Change in 2015

Table 6: Landuse and Landcover Change in 2015

Landuse Area_sqm Area_Ha % Plantation/Trees 185125.35 18.51 6.61 Shrubs/Grassland 1343485.83 134.35 47.98 Open space 1193155.98 119.31 42.61 Built up 58580.67 5.86 2.09 Gully 19807.24 1.98 0.71 2800155.07 280.00 100.00

Source: GIS Analysis 2019

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria

Source: GIS Analysis 2019 Figure 7: Showing Landuse and Landcover Change in 2014

Table 7: Landuse and Landcover Change in 2014

Landuse Area_sqm Area_Ha % Plantation/Trees 198908.86 19.50 6.96 Shrubs/Grassland 1363666.74 137.27 49.02 Open space 1155509.03 115.55 41.27 Built up 57863.21 5.79 2.07 Gully 19007.24 1.90 0.68 2794955.08 280.00 100.00

Source: GIS Analysis 2019

Extent of gully erosion

The findings of the study revealed that extent of areas affected by gully erosion as at 2018 was 0.91% with open space having the largest percentage which makes the environment more susceptible to gully formation and development as shown in Fig. 8. The characteristics of the landuse and landcover change of the area include plantation/trees (near to primary forest with little human interference), shrubs/grasslands (include farmlands and grazing lands), open space

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

(exposed lands, degraded lands and open space), built-up areas (areas covered by building and structures) and gully sites (rivers and streams) as shown on Table 8.

Source: GIS Analysis 2019 Figure 8: Graph Showing Landuse size

Table 8: Landuse and Landcover characteristics for the study area

Land cover Description Plantation/Trees Near to primary forest with little human interference Shrubs/grasslands Includes farmlands and grazing land Open spaces Exposed land, degraded areas and open spaces. Built up Area covered by houses or other buildings. Gully Rivers, streams and Gullies Source: GIS Analysis, 2018

The nature of the slopes in the study area starting from the main gate of the College moving towards the extreme end of the college’s fence located at the eastern part of the college is characterized by steep slope as shown in fig. 9. The steep nature of the slope in the area coupled with tarred nature of the college road, with inadequate and poor drainage system is responsible for the generation of surface runoff that accelerate the formation and development of gullies within the college and its environs.

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria

Source: GIS Analysis 2019 Figure 9: Slope map of the study Area

Effects of the sinuosity of the gully channels on the morphologies of the gully

Sinuosity index

Sinuosity is used to define the degree of meandering of a river channel which is used to establish geomorhological river types which affect the expansion of the channel both in terms of width and depth. Meandering is a natural geomorphic process in rivers which results in gradual migration of the river’s course and erosion of the banks. Analysis of meander bends reveals the fact that meandering tendencies of the River channel based on the sinuosity index is;

Sinuosity= river length/valley length

1172.282458 = =1.128568 1038.734128 The sinuosity indices of the gully channel reaches were calculated for the year 2018 as shown in fig. 10. According to sinuosity index, channels can be categorized into three classes: Straight (SI < 1.05), Sinuous (SI 1.05–1.5), and Meandering (SI > 1.5)

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Based on the calculated value of the sinuosity index 1.12, which is sinuous, implying that the sinuosity of the gully channel has a significant effect on the expansion of the gully channel in the study area, thereby accelerating rapid morphological modification of gullies in the area.

Source: GIS Analysis, 2019 Figure 10: Calculation of the Sinuosity of the Gully Channel

Conclusion

Federal College of Education Technical Gombe and its environs are currently facing serious problem of gully erosion, especially on the open land meant for future development of the College. The study reveals that the factors responsible for the formation and development of gully erosion in the study area is a combination of interdependent mechanisms between topography, slope, soil erodibility, landuse/landcover change, which have changed over the years thereby reducing infiltration capacity, increased surface runoff on steep slope in the environment. This has increased formation of new gully sites, expansion of existing ones through deep cutting, thereby destroying valuable land that will be used for future development in the College. The impact of the menace of gully erosion in Gombe State has been enormous ranging from loss of access roads to nearby settlements, farmland, and crops, livestock and properties, and to some

Analysis of Gully Erosion Dynamics in Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, Gombe State, Nigeria extent human lives. Government, at Federal, State and local levels, communities and individuals has tried to combat this environmental disaster with little or no success. This failure can partly be attributed to the peculiar topography, geology, soil, landuse/Lancover changes and non specific control technique employed in combating gully erosion.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are suggested: Specific, scientific and systematic approach which integrates the influence of all factors observed as responsible for gully formation and development should be employed for the control of gullies within the Federal College of Education Technical Gombe. Both engineering and biological techniques of gully erosion control measures should be put in place the control the dynamic nature of the gully erosion in the area to control its future expansion. The recommended control measures should be extensively applied and monitored for efficiency and effectiveness.

References

Abdullahi, J. and Nggada, T.S. (2019). Analysis of Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria. Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences, Volume 1, issue 2 April, 2019. pp 33.47.

Arabi, A. S., Nur, A. and Dewu, B.B.M. (2009). Hydro Geo-Electrical Investigation in Gombe Town. Journal of Applied Sciences & Environmental Management, Vol. 13, No. 3 pp. 65-68.

Balzerek, H., Werner, F., Jürgen, H., Klaus-martin, M. and Markus, R. (2003). Man Made Flood Disaster in the Savanna Town of Gombe/NE Nigeria. In Erdkunde, 94-109.

Danladi Aliyu and Ray, A.A. (2014). Socio-economic effect of gully erosion on Land use in Gombe Metropolis, Gombe State. Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning. Vol.7 (5), July 2014 PP 97-105

Egboka, B.C.E. and Okpoko, E.I. (1984). Gully erosion in the Agulu-Nanka region of Anambra State, Nigeria. Proceedings of the Harare symposium. IAHS Publication, 144, pp. 335- 347.

Egboka, B.C.E. and Nwankwor, G.I. (1986). The hydrogeological and geotechnical parameters as causative agents in the generation of erosion in rain forest belt of Nigeria. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 3, pp. 417-425.

Ezechi, J.I. and Okagbue, C.O. (1989). A genetic classification of gullies in eastern Nigeria and its implications on control measures. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 9, pp 711-718.

Environmental Degradation: Causes and Consequences. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284395582_Environmental_Degradation_Caus es_and_Consequences [accessed Dec 24 2018].

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Gombe State Ministry of Water Resources and Environment (2003). Gully Erosion Control Master Plan. Ministry of Land and Survey Gombe (2008). Gombe Metropolis Land Area. Office of the Surveyor General of Gombe State.

Nyanganji, J. K. (1997). Some Basic Observations on Rainfall and Runoff related Factors on an Artificial Catchment in Maiduguri, NE Nigeria. In: Daura (ed) Issues in Environmental Monitoring in Nigeria, 152-165.

Nwajide, C.S. and Hoque, H. (1979). Gullying processes in south eastern Nigeria. The Nigerian Fields, 44, pp 64-74.

Mbaya, L. A. (2012). An Assessment of Gully Erosion in Gombe Town, Nigeria. Unpublished Ph.D Thesis, University of Maiduguri.

Mbaya L.A. (2013). A study of Inter-relations among gully variables in Gombe town, Gomb State, Nigeria. Wudpecker. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning. Vol 1 (1) pp 100-006. Mbaya, L. A., Ayuba, H. K. and Abdullahi, J. (2012). An Assessment of Gully Erosion in Gombe Town, Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Geology; 3; 2012.

Mbaya L.A. (2016). Assessment of the socio-economic effects of gully erosion in Gombe town, Gombe State, Nigeria. Ilimi Journal of Arts and Social Sciences (IJASS) Volume 2 no.1, May/June, 2016. PP 13-22.

Ofomata, G.E.K. (2007). Missing Links in the Management of Soil Erosion Problems in Ofomata, G.E.K and Phil Eze, P.O. (eds.) Environmental Problems and management in Nigeria, Geographical Perspective: 23.

Okagbue, C.O and Uma, K.O. (1987). Performance of gully erosion control measures in south eastern Nigeria. Proceeding of the International Symposium on Forest Hydrology and Watershed Management, Vancouver, Canada. IAHS Publication, 167, pp 163-172.

World Bank (1990). Towards the Development of an Environmental Action Plan for Nigeria. World Bank, Washington, D.C, 139 p

Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Water Balance Characteristics of Southern Borno Northeast Nigeria

Mari Joel Bwala 1, Sunday Asa Patrick2, Luka Yohanna2, Zemba A. Ambrose2

1Department of Geography, University of Maiduguri1, Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria 2Department of Geography, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola. [email protected]@[email protected] [email protected]

Abstract

This study analyzes the trend of rainfall in Southern Borno and in doing that the cumulative index analysis of Walter (1967) was used to calculate onset, cessation and length of rainy days. The result showed that generally, the onset of rainfall is between the months of May and June while cessation is mainly October and average rainy days of 129 days. Thornthwaite and Mather model was used to calculate water budget of the study area. The result showed average monthly PET of 10.182 mm for the period of study, with total average PET of 122.188, the month with the highest PET is April, with a value of 18.783 and the month with the lowest PET is August with a value of 5.337. The weighted average annual deficit in rain water for the study area is 8.429 mm3 and the annual surplus is 138.578 mm. The result also showed that the area has on the average, five months of WD from November to March, while the remaining months have zero (0) values of water deficit. WS ranging from April to October, while the remaining months have zero values of WS.

Keywords: Cessation, Cumulative index analysis, Onset, PET, Water balance and Water deficit

Introduction

Precipitation trend analyses on spatial and temporal scales have been of great concern during the past century because of the attention given to global climate change from the scientific community especially when climate change started manifesting; the trends indicate a small positive global trend, even though large areas are instead characterized by negative trends IPCC, (1996). Precipitation, in all its forms, is an important element of the physical environment and as such constitutes one of the most valuable sources of water, a strategic resource for human survival and social development. It is the most important hydrological input parameter and hydro climatic factor affecting man and his productivity (Bardossy, 2001; Chukwudi, Nzoiwu, Ezenwaji, Ifeanyi, Enete and Nwabueze, 2016).

Rainfall is one of the major factors affecting food security especially in countries largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Beside evaporation rate and soil characteristics, rainfall also controls the state of soil moisture. The role of moisture in agricultural production is even more important in the tropics, where rainfall is highly seasonal over most parts, and varies from year to year, and the growing season is determined by the availability of rain to meet crop water requirements (Ayoade, 2008). In its synthesis report summary for policy makers, IPCC (2007), projected that by 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%. Thus, agricultural production including access to food, in many African countries is projected to be severely compromised.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Hydrological aspects of precipitation studies, as outlined in Ayoade (1988), are studies relating to variations in precipitation distribution in both space and time, and analysis of precipitation data for hydrological purposes such as determination of run-off, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, flood forecasting and prediction. Precipitation is both spatially and temporally variable, while such characteristic has its attendant consequences. Bardossy (2001) is of the view that intense local precipitation, prolonged and spatially distinct rainfall events have provoked floods both in small/medium catchments and large rivers. Ezenwaji, Okoye and Awopeju (2013) observed in their study that climatic elements (temperature and rainfall) were the greatest contributors to flooding in Awka, Nigeria, during the period 2000 - 2009.

Thus, recent climatic variability and most particularly rainfall variations are becoming increasingly of concern to researchers, institutions and governments. To predict future developments, past statistical trends can be considered along with physically-based climate model projections (Bardossy, 2001). Some studies such as that of Odjugo, (2010) and climate model projections. Abiodun, Salami and Tadross (2011) based on statistical examinations, have shown that changes in precipitation behaviors are already evident in Nigeria. In addition, other scientific interests in Nigeria, ranging from studies examining rainfall anomalies, by Olaniran, (2002) and the trend of precipitation and annual water balance by Ojo, (1990). It is known that possible changes in precipitation behavior can have huge effect on the entire water balance characteristics of a region.

There are few studies on the recent trends and climatic water budgeting in Nigeria, while none of such studies exist on the Southern Borno region, thereby prompting this study. Thus, the aim of this study is to examine the water balance in relation to current trends of precipitation in the study area. The study also intends to contribute to the growing understanding of rainfall characteristics and variability in Nigeria in general.

Description of Study Area

The study area is situated in the Southern part of Borno State, in Northeast Nigeria, the State worst hit and ravage by insurgency. It is politically delineated as the Southern Borno Senatorial district, comprising of nine Local Government Areas and the largest Senatorial district in the State. The Local Government Areas are; Askira-Uba, Bayo, Biu, Chibok, Damboa, Gwoza, Hawul, Kwaya-Kusar and Shani. It is located between latitudes 10° 041N and 11° 301 N and longitudes 10° 241 and 14° 721E. Southern Borno shares border with Adamawa State in the East, Gombe State in the South and Yobe State in the West, while the Northern border is with Borno central. Southern Borno region has a population of (1,252,598) according to National Population Commission (NPC, 2006), projected to (2,555,887) in 2017 using 3.5% growth rate. Agriculture is the predominant economic activities of the people of Southern Borno. This consists mostly of the cultivation of cereal crops and rearing of animals at subsistence level. Thus agriculture constitutes over 90% of their economic activities.

The topography is characterized by rugged relief. Southern Borno is drained by three major rivers; the River Gongola and River Hawul which emptied into the Gongola and River Yedzeram that flows into the Lake Chad. There are so many minor rivers which exist as their tributaries. The climate of Southern Borno is the tropical wet and dry type according to Koppen’s climatic classification system. The seasonal distribution of rainfall is controlled by the movement of the

Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Water Balance Characteristics of Southern Borno Northeast Nigeria

Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) air masses. Rainfall pattern is controlled by the movement of the ITD, characterized by a dry season, November to May, though in some cases, to early June, with the North-East winds dominating during this period. Short wet season occurs normally from late June to early October and is dominated by the South-West winds. In recent times, the onset and cessation periods of the rain in the study area has been observed to vary over time. The mean minimum annual rainfall in the study area is 630.1 (mm3) while the maximum is 1062.8 (mm3) with a mean annual rainfall of about 811.3(mm3). The study area has a mean minimum temperature of 21.4°C, maximum temperature of 33.3°C and a mean temperature of 28.0°C with a mean range of 11.9°C, (NIMET, 2017).

Fig. 1: Map of Study area

Methodology

Data Collection

Daily and monthly precipitation dataset as well as daily sunshine duration used in this study are obtained from the archive of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Lagos, Nigeria for all the nine Local Government Areas that make up the Southern Borno Senatorial district. It

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 covers a period of 18 years (2000 - 2017). The data were used to evaluate the temporal variations in precipitation characteristics of the study area and to determine other precipitation characteristics.

Method of Data Analysis

Daily precipitation of each LGA that make up the study area for the period of study were summed up to derive the mean monthly rainfall of the LGA’s, then mean monthly rainfall were summed and averaged to get mean monthly rainfall of Southern Borno. Monthly values of rainfall for each year were summed up for the 18 year period to generate annual rainfall values for the study area. Temporal variation in the annual rainfall values of the study area was analyzed. Trend in the time series was determined using linear regression. Thus, trend analytical technique and regression analysis were used to analyze the data. For rainfall variability within the study area, descriptive statistics were computed to determine the total, maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation. In order to further explore changes in precipitation with time, mean annual rainfall was calculated at six year intervals, that is, 2000 to 2005, 2006 to 2011 and lastly, 2012 to 2017. This technique has been proved to be a valuable tool in detecting medium term changes in the mean value of a sequence of regularly spaced observations (Crapper, Fleming and Kalma, 1996). The result is presented in Table 1.

Rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy days were calculated using cumulative index analysis method of Walter (1967). The method uses the formula as can be seen below for the actual date of onset of rain:

Days in the month × (51 - Accumulated rainfall in previous month) / (Total for the month).

The cessation is the date after which no more than 51 mm3 of rain is expected. The formula is applied in reverse order by accumulating total rainfall backwards from December to obtain the actual date of cessation. The duration between onset and cessation of rains represent the number of rainy days or length of rainy season, the result is presented in Table 2 below. This method is an effective method for determining effective rainfall by growing season in the tropics. This method has been applied by Adejuwon (2012) to study rainfall seasonality in the Niger Delta belt of Nigeria and Chukwudi et al (2016) in Awka to analyze trends in rainfall characteristics and water balance. The rainfall threshold value is defined thus: a day in which the rainfall amount is accumulated to 51mm3 is regarded as a rainy day and designated onset, while the cessation of rains is the date after which less than 51mm3 of rain is expected. This amount ensures sufficient moisture in the soil to maintain crop growth and gives a reasonable guarantee that planting would be successful if started two weeks later (Adejuwon, 2012). In addition, correlation analysis was performed to determine possible relationship between the number of rain days in a year and annual rainfall for that year.

Water budget computation for the period of study was done for Southern Borno in order to estimate values of Potential Evaporation (PET), Actual Evaporation (ET), Accumulated Potential Water Loss (APWL), Water Deficit (WD), Water Surplus values (WS) and Water Storage (STOR). The model used is based on Thornthwaite and Mather (1957) which has also been used by Ayoade (1973) to compute water balance for Jos and Calabar, Nigeria. The results are presented in Tables 3, 4 and 5.

Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Water Balance Characteristics of Southern Borno Northeast Nigeria

The Thornthwaite and Mathers (TM) Model is one of the simplest models to determine water balance of a region from individual fields to small watershed. Such model is used to determine a general estimate of water balance regime for individual fields to small watersheds. The monthly potential evapotranspiration was computed using the following equation Singh and Hari (2004).

푇 PET = 1.6 × C × (10× )a (1) 퐼 Where PET is the potential evapotranspiration (mm month-1); T is the mean monthly temperature (°C); I is the annual heat index for the 12 months in a year (I = Σi); i- is the monthly heat index (i= [T/5]1.514); a = 6.75 × 10-7 × I3. 7.71 × 10-5 × I2 + 1.792 × 10-2 × I + 0.49239; and C is a correction factor for each month (C = [m/30] × [d/12]), where m is the number of days in the month and d is the monthly mean daily duration (number of hours between sunrise and sunset, expressed as the average for the month). The result is presented in Table 1 and 2

P - PET, is a quantitative estimation of the water excess (+) or deficit (-), P as precipitation. Accumulated Potential Water Loss (APWL) is the potential deficiency of soil moisture associated with low moisture contents of a soil below water holding capacity. Accumulated potential water loss is increased 1) during dry seasons to meet the demands of PET when insufficient supply of water, 2) reduced during wet seasons from soil moisture recharge, and 3) equals zero when soil moisture equal to the available water holding capacity of the soil. The accumulated values APWL for each month, were calculated by running the sum of the daily P-PET values during the periods when (P-PET) is negative value given in Table 2. Those months having positive (P-PET) have APWL zero. The available water which is actual storage of soil moisture (STOR) for each month was calculated as follows:

STOR=AWC x eAWPL/AWC (2) where AWC is the moisture storage capacity, also known as available water capacity of the soil, which is based upon the land use, soil texture and rooting depth as suggested by Thornthwaite & Mather (1955, 1957). The results were summarized in Table 2.

ΔSM month=STOR month-STOR previous month (3)

A negative value of ΔSM means discharge of water from the storage because of evapotranspiration, whereas a positive value of ΔSM implies infiltration of water into the soil that contributes to the soil moisture storage.

The actual evapotranspiration (AET) was computed for all the months, as given in Equations (4)

AET = PET (STOR/AWC) (4) Where PET is the potential evapotranspiration, STOR available water and AWC water holding capacity. The results are presented in Table 5 below.

Soil moisture holding capacity of 195.3mm3 was assumed for the study area. The assumed soil moisture holding capacity was based on results of study by Umara, Dibal and Izuchukwu (2013) who have determined mean water holding capacity in Biu plateau area to be 195.3, as such this was assumed for this study base on Thornthwaite and Mather (1957) in Ayode (2008). The

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 potential evaporation (PET) was then estimated while the relative amounts of precipitation were estimated at six year intervals based on the same method.

Results of Findings

The descriptive statistic result of mean annual rainfall distribution in the study area as presented in Table 1, revealed that average mean annual rainfall for the period of study is 811.3mm3 and the standard deviation from the mean is 132.5mm3, maximum rainfall was 1062.8mm3 recorded in 2003 while the minimum was 630.1mm3 recorded in 2013, ten years later.

Table 1: Descriptive rainfall statistics of the study area, (2000 to 2017)

Ra n ge M i n. M a x . Sum Mean Std. Error S t d. D e v . Variance

Rainfall 4 3 2 . 7 630.1 1 0 6 2 . 8 12980.4 8 1 1 . 3 3 3 . 1 1 132.5 17546.7

The precipitation trend plot in figure 2 shows that at the beginning of the study period (2000), rainfall was below the mean, then it increases and decreases in 2001 and 2002 respectively until it rises to its peak in 2003. However, rainfall was found to be pronounced in 2004, when it rises from below the average, increasing swiftly to maintain its rise until 2009, when it plunged below the average and subsequently, rising and falling again to reach the second highest during the period under study in 2012. Thus, it can be deduced from the trend that annual rainfall distribution pattern in Southern Borno is characterized by increase from below average to above average, and then below average intermittently to an unprecedented height, before maintaining a steady rise for at least five years, before the subsequent repeat of the scenario. The result also indicated that the area is most likely to receive heavy rainfall nine years after a year with heavy rainfall. Thus, flooding is likely to repeat at an interval of nine years if the trend continues.

Linear Trend Model Yt = 845.7 - 3.45635*t

1100 Actual Fits

1000

)

(

l 900

n 800

700

600 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Year Fig. 2: Trend of mean annual rainfall in Southern Borno between 2000 and 2017

The mean monthly rainfall distribution in Southern Borno in fig.3, shows that the monthly rainfall characteristic is mono-modal, with a single peak usually in August, unlike in Awka

Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Water Balance Characteristics of Southern Borno Northeast Nigeria

Southeast, Nigeria, where it is bi-modal as revealed by (Chukwudi, et-al, 2017). The results also revealed that rainfall in the study area for the period of study is concentrated in five (5) months, beginning from June and ending in October. Higher rainfall is mostly experienced in the months of August and September.

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0 MeanRainfall(mm) 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Months

Fig. 3: Average means monthly rainfall of Southern Borno between 2000 and-2017. Source: NIMET, Lagos

Fig. 4 shows records of average monthly rainfall for the period of study. The result revealed that whenever the mean monthly rainfall of an onset month is below average, maximum monthly rainfall is recorded in the month of September but when the onset monthly mean is above the calculated average, highest rainfall is recorded in the month of August.

400.0 JAN 350.0 FEB 300.0 MAR 250.0 APR 200.0 MAY 150.0 JUN Rainfall Rainfall (mm) 100.0 JUL AUG 50.0 SEPT 0.0 OCT NOV Years DEC

Fig. 4: Monthly rainfall of Southern Borno between 2000 and-2017. Source: NIMET, Lagos (2017)

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Onset, cessation and length of rainy days

Attempt was made to determine the onset, duration and cessation of the rainy season in the study area for the period under investigation using the Cumulative Index Analysis of Walter (1967), where onset of rains in Nigeria is defined in terms of the time of receiving an accumulated amount of rainfall in excess of 51 mm3. The result is presented in Table 2 below. The result revealed that onset of rains was mainly in the month of May, June and July in the study area for the period of study. It was predominantly in the month of June followed by the month of May, with the number of years for individual months over the period of study being 9 and 6 respectively with an unusual situation in the 2002.

Table 2: Mean annual onset, cessation dates of rains and the number of Rainy days Year O n s e t C e s s a t i o n R a i n y D a y s 2000 3 rd J u n e 17thOct 136 2001 1 st J u n e 26thOct 148 2002 4 th J u l y 13thOct 102 2003 1 st May 2 ndS e p t 125 2004 14thMay 11thS e p t 131 2005 19thMay 8 th S e p t 113 2006 6 th J u n e 31stOct 148 2007 4 th J u n e 8 thOct 127 2008 5 th J u n e 4 th S e p t 9 2 2009 9 th May 2 nd S e p t 117 2010 5 th J u n e 29thOct 147 2011 7 th J u n e 28thOct 144 2012 12thMay 3 rdS e p t 115 2013 14thJ u n e 4 th S e p t 8 3 2014 9 thMay 26thOct 171 2015 30thJ u n e 22ndOct 117 2016 4 th May 9 th S e p t 1 3 4 rd rd 2017 3 May 23 Oct 1 7 3

Source: NIMET, Lagos (2017)

Relationship between mean annual rainfall and number of rainy days (Fig.5) was also determined to find out if there is a correlation between the lengths of rainy days and mean annual rainfall in the study area the result is presented in figure 5 below. The relationship between mean total rainfall and rainy days was found to yield a positive correlation r = 0.116 (p = 0.647) with coefficient of determination of r2 = 0.014. This result is similar to Chukwudi et-al (2017) who also found a positive correlation between number of rainy days and annual rainfall in Awka Southeastern Nigeria. The result implies that mean annual rainfall in the study are increase as the number of rainy days also increase meanwhile reduction in the number of rainy days may equally mean reduction in the mean annual rainfall.

Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Water Balance Characteristics of Southern Borno Northeast Nigeria

Yt = 121.5 + 0.792*t

Actual 170 Fits 160

y 150

D 140

i a 130

o 120

n 110

e L 100 90 80 791.3 662.5 694.6 874.7 876.8 858.7 1052.5 735.1 833.2 Mean annual Rainfall (mm)

Figure 5: Trend analysis for length of rainy days

A comparison of six years mean of monthly precipitation for the study area was computed and present in table 3 below. The result showed decline in the trend of rainfall after every six years. Thus, it implies that farmers and water users should expect a decline in precipitation after every six years and hence plan accordingly to avoid and or reduce the adverse effects of the decline in precipitation.

Table 3: Six years trend of precipitation of Southern Borno for the period of study

Parameter 2000 - 2005 (mm) 2006 - 2011 (mm) 2012 - 2 0 1 7 ( m m )

Precipitation 822.7 816.5 799. 3

Water Balance Computations

Average precipitation as revealed in Table 4 below is 87.507mm3 which is far below the water holding capacity of the study area. The weighted average annual deficit in the study area is 8.429 mm3 and the annual surplus is 138.578 mm3. The result showed that the area has on the average, five months of WD from November to March, while the remaining months, has zero (0) values of water deficit. WS ranging from April to October while the remaining months has zero values of WS. The result showed average monthly PET of 10.182 mm3 for the period of study with total average PET of 122.188, the month with the highest PET is April with a value of 18.783. Hence, irrigation is required within the periods of water deficit to meet up the soil moisture holding capacity for improved agricultural productions.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Table 4: Average monthly water balance computation for Southern Borno (AWC= 195.3 mm3). P PET P - PET STO R Δ S M E T W D W S Jan 0 5 . 9 4 3 - 5 . 9 4 3 1 8 9 . 4 4 7 - 0 . 1 2 6 5 . 7 6 5 - 5 . 9 4 3 0 Feb 0 8 . 8 6 2 - 8 . 8 6 2 1 8 6 . 6 3 6 - 2 . 8 1 1 8 . 4 6 9 - 8 . 8 6 2 0 Mar 7 . 5 4 1 1 7 . 7 6 4 -10.22 3 1 8 5 . 3 4 - 1 . 2 9 6 1 6 . 8 5 8 -10.22 3 0 Apr 6 2 . 5 2 2 1 8 . 7 8 3 4 3 . 7 3 9 1 5 6 . 1 1 3 -29.22 7 1 5 . 0 1 4 0 4 3 . 7 3 9 May 1 7 6 . 6 3 2 1 6 . 6 9 9 159.933 8 6 . 1 1 -70.00 3 7 . 3 6 3 0 159.93 3 Jun 1 2 5 . 3 6 8 . 2 1 1 117.151 8 1 . 3 0 4 - 4 . 8 0 6 3 . 1 8 3 0 117.15 1 Jul 2 2 8 . 4 3 7 8 . 2 0 9 220.228 6 3 . 2 4 1 -18.06 3 2 . 6 5 8 0 220.22 8 Aug 1 3 6 . 0 7 9 5 . 3 3 7 130.742 9 9 . 9 9 2 3 6 . 7 5 1 2 . 7 3 7 0 130.74 2 Sep 1 6 8 . 5 7 7 6 . 9 3 5 161.642 8 5 . 3 6 -14.63 2 3 . 0 3 1 0 161.64 2 Oct 1 4 4 . 9 3 8 8 . 3 2 6 136.612 9 7 . 0 3 2 1 1 . 6 7 2 4 . 1 3 7 0 136.61 2 Nov 0 1 1 . 3 0 6 -11.30 6 1 8 4 . 3 1 5 8 7 . 2 8 3 1 0 . 6 7 -11.30 6 0 Dec 0 5 . 8 1 3 - 5 . 8 1 3 1 8 9 . 5 7 3 5 . 2 5 8 5 . 6 4 3 - 5 . 8 1 3 0 T o t a l 1050.086 122.188 9 2 7 . 9 1604.463 0 8 5 . 5 2 8 -42.14 7 970.047

This result means that potential evapotranspiration in the study area is highest in April and lowest in December. The result for available water which is actual storage of soil moisture (STOR) for each month shows that soil moisture storage is high in between months of November to March, which implies that additional water is required to meet up the water deficit in those month. Thus, irrigation is required to meet up plants water demand. While for the months of April to October, storage of soil moisture is low coupled with the surplus water and rainfall within the period, runoff is eminent. As such, rain fed agricultural activities can proof successful within this period.

Water balance status

Summary of the average water balance status of the study area for the period of study was computed and determine, the result is presented in Table 5 below and graphically depicted in fig. 6 below.

Table 5: Summary of P, PET, ET and APWL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec T o t a l P 0 0 7.541 62. 522 176.632 125.3 6 22 8. 437 136.079 168.577 14 4. 938 0 0 1050.086 PET 5.943 8.862 17.76 4 18. 783 16.69 9 8.211 8 . 2 0 9 5.337 6.935 8 . 3 2 6 11. 3 06 5.813 12 2. 188 E T 5.765 8.469 16.85 8 15. 014 7.363 3.183 2 . 6 5 8 2.737 3.031 4 . 1 3 7 10. 6 7 5.643 85. 528 APW L - 5.9 4 3 - 8.8 62 -10.223 -43.739 -159.933 -117.149 -220.218 -130.742 -161.642 -136.612 -11.36 - 5.8 13 -1012.23 6

Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Water Balance Characteristics of Southern Borno Northeast Nigeria

Water Balance Status 300 250 200 APWL

150 ET mm 100 PET 50 P 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Fig. 6: Status of water balance

Fig. 6 shows the status of water balance, while Table 6presents the summary of water balance. The graph shows that precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and actual evaporation increased from January to reach its peak in July. The accumulated potential water loss does not exceed 50mm3 throughout the period.

Conclusion

This paper has attempted to determine the characteristics of rainfall in the study area. It analyzes trends in rainfall characteristics and associated water budget components. The results of the study showed that average mean annual rainfall for the period of study is 811.3mm3 and the standard deviation from the mean is 132.5mm3, maximum rainfall was 1062.8mm3 recorded in 2003 while the minimum was 630.1mm3 in 2013 ten years later. The trend of annual rainfall distribution pattern in Southern Borno is characterize by increase from below average to above average and then below average intermittently to an unprecedented height before maintaining a steady rise for at least five years before the subsequent repeat of the scenario. The water budget components have equally changed. For agricultural purposes, this study establishes that periods of soil moisture utilization and deficit have reduced by a month while periods of soil moisture recharge and amounts of water surplus have increased. Also, the length of rainy season or the growing season has been shown to increase due to changes in onset periods in Southern Borno and a positive correlation is seen to exist between the annual rainfall amounts and the number of rainy days in a year. Therefore, given the nature of rainfall trend, the possibility of harnessing rainwater by relevant agencies as well as households is encouraged as this could help satisfy levels of water demand in the study area. This paper without doubt, underscores the importance and usefulness of determining trends in hydro-climatic parameters of a region and associated water balance components given their potential contribution in planning and development. However, important linkages have been shown to exist between changes in hydro-climatic parameters and how these changes propagate through changes in the frequency of water related problems such as drought due to changes in periods of soil moisture recharge and utilization and as such should be of concern

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Recommendations

The study recommends the followings;

 In the period of water deficits, irrigation should be practice to augment crops water need.  That given the nature of rainfall trend, harnessing rainwater by relevant agencies as well as households is encouraged as this could help satisfy levels of water demand in the study area  Based on the results of this study, farmers should brace for decline in precipitation after every five years from the preceding year farmers.  Farmers should always start planting their crops in June every year

Reference

Abiodun, B. J., Salami, A. T. and Tadross, M. (2011). Climate Change Scenarios for Nigeria: Understanding Biophysical Impacts. Climate Systems Analysis Group, Cape Town, for Building Nigeria's Response to Climate Change (BNRCC) Project. Ibadan, Nigeria: Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team (NEST). Adejuwon, J. O. (2012). Rainfall Seasonality in the Niger Delta Belt, Nigeria” J. Geogr. Reg. Plann. 5(2):51-60, 18. Ayoade J. O (1973). Annual rainfall trends and periodicity in Nigeria. Nigerian Geographical Journal 16:167-176. Ayoade, J. O. (1988). Introduction of Climatology for the Tropics.Abiprint and Park limited, Ayoade, J. O. (2003). Tropical Hydrology and Water Resources. Ibadan.AgboAreo Publishers. Ayoade, J. O. (2008). Introduction to AgroClimatology. Ibadan. UniversityPress PLC. Ibadan.

Bardossy, A. (2001). Statistical Investigation of Precipitation Changesfrom a Hydrological Viewpoint. In Lozan J, Graßl H. and Hupfer P.(Eds) Climate of the 21ST Century: Changes and Risks.WissenschaftlicheAuswerungen, Hamburg, Germany.

Chukwudi, P. Nzoiwu, E. E. Ezenwaji, Ifeanyi, C. Enete & Nwabueze I. Igu (2016). Analysis of trends in rainfall and water balance characteristics of Awka, Nigeria Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 10(7), pp. 186-196, July, 2017 DOI: 10.5897/JGRP2016.0603 Article Number: 057FE3964815 ISSN 2070-1845

Crapper, P. F., Fleming, P. M. & Kalma, J. D. (1996). Prediction of Lake Levels using Water Balance Models”. Environ. Software 11(4):251-258.

Ezenwaji, E. E., Okoye, A. C. and Awopeju, A. K. (2013). The relative contributions of climatic elements and environmental factors to flooding in Awka urban area. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 7(8).

Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Water Balance Characteristics of Southern Borno Northeast Nigeria

Odjugo, P. A. (2010). General Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Nigeria. J Hum Ecol. 29(1):47-55. Olaniran O.J (2002). Rainfall anomalies in Nigeria: The Contemporary Understanding. An Inaugural Lecture delivered on April 25, 2002, University of Ilorin.

Singh, R. K. & V. Hari, Prasad. (2004). Remote sensing and GIS approach for assessment of the water balance of a watershed. Hydrological sciences, Vol. 49(1), pp. 131-141

Thornthwaite, C. W. & J. R. Mather. (1957). Instructions and tables for computing potential evapotranspiration and the waterbalance: Centeron, N.J., Laboratory of Climatology, Publication in Climatology, Vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 185-311.

Thornthwaite, C. W. and J. R. Mather, (1955). The water balance: Centeron, N.J., Laboratory of Climatology, Publications in Climatology, Vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 1.104.

Umara, B. G., Dibal, J. M. and Izuchukwu (2013) Determination of some mechanical and some Hydraulic properties of Biu clayey soil. International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER) Vol.3, Issue 5. Pp.3281-3284ISSN2249-6645

Walter, M. W. (1967). Length of the rainy season in Nigeria”. Nigeria Geog. J. 10:127-128.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

1Ikusemoran Mayomi, 2Luka Yohanna and 3Eseyin E.B,

1Remote Sensing and GIS, Department of Geography, University of Maiduguri 2Department of Geography, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola 3Mathematics Unit, Basic Science Department, Taraba State College of Agriculture, Jalingo.

Abstract

In this paper, the use of geospatial and geostatistical techniques for determination of settlement patterns in Adamawa and Taraba states were demonstrated. The actual locations of the settlements and thier attributes in both states were generated on digital maps to derive the settlement distribution pattern in the states. The analyzing pattern of the spatial statistical tool of ArcGIS 10.5 was used to calculate the average nearest neighbour of the settlements in the two States, the Getis- Ord Gi* method of hot spots was adopted to assess the clustering of settlement based on relief. The results revealed that though Taraba State is far larger in land area than Adamawa State, but Adamawa State has a total settlement of 586, with a land area of 38006.41, with 64.86 settlement density, while Taraba State with 579 settlements and 58378.51 land area has settlement density of 100.83. The nearest neighbour index which suggests the average distance among the settlements in Adamawa State is approximately 0.92 meters, while Taraba State has average of 0.88 meters. Since the index of the two states are less than one (1), the pattern exhibits clustering. The generated z-scores and the p-values in the two States are both negative and small respectively which further confirms the tendency towards clustering of the settlement pattern. About 6% of the land area in each of the two States are protected areas, that is, Gashaka-Gumti National Park. The study also revealed that the settlements in the entire Benue valley in Adamawa State are clustered, while only some areas within the Benue valley in Taraba State are clustered. In Adamawa State, an average of every 143.72 kilometers of protected land area has one settlement, while Taraba State has one settlement at every 160.27 kilometers. It was recommended that settlement pattern analysis should be seen as an important aspect of even developmental planning and hence, be integrated in regional planning processes while geospatial and geostatistical techniques which is easier to process with reliable results should be encouraged.

Keywords: Geostatistical Analysis, Hot Spot Analysis, Nearest Neighbour Index, Settlement Density, Settlement Pattern.

Introduction

Adamawa and Taraba States of today were formerly a single State called Gongola State. In 1991, Taraba State was carved out from Gongola State, leaving the remaining area as Adamawa State. Other than the location of the two States in similar climatic and vegetation zones, both States have similar terrain (high mountain ranges, floodplains and lowlands) as well as having some parts of their lands as protected areas, that is, Gumti and Gashaka sectors of the Gashaka-Gumti National Park in Adamawa and Taraba States respectively. Moreover, major parts of the two States are occupied by the floodplains of River Benue. Since Adamawa and Taraba States have similar terrain

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria. characteristics which are major determinants of location and distribution of settlement no doubt, these characteristics determine the settlement patterns in the two states.

Both Adamawa and Taraba States are located in the North Eastern geopolitical zone in Nigeria and been seriously affected by the ongoing insurgency and insecurity challenges in the country. The federal government has declared that the insurgents have been technically defeated and rehabitation and developmental programs have been put in place by the various levels of government. However, no genuine even development can be achieved if there is no proper spatial planning. Oladayo (2017) reported that, integration ofdifferentspatial actionsforstability andbalanceddevelopment inNigeria is necessary becausespatialsustainable development is the only key to even development in any country. Oladayo concluded that several yearsof developmentalplanningin isolation ofregional planning in Nigeria have its consequences, especially on rural–urban migration, poor settlement patterns and infrastructural deficit in urban and rural areas.

In Adamawa State for instance, Ilesanmi (2013) commented on the situation of regional development as follows;

With the abundant human, natural and material resources within the large landmass of Adamawa State, it is nevertheless, one of the least developed areas in Nigeria. Using the yardsticks of the level of industrialization, urbanization, available infrastructural facilities, employment in government/industrial/non–basic establishments, productivity and the standard of living of the population, only a few settlements are developed while a substantial part of the region yet remains grossly under–developed. The country–side is highly backward, yet, natural resources like clay minerals, uranium, limestone, marble, graphite; plant and animal resources lie within the bounds of the State which, if well developed and properly harnessed, can greatly help in achieving a State– wide and high level of development.

Ilesanmi concluded that based on the (then) regional development trend in Adamawa State, regional imbalance, dualism in terms of core-periphery relationship, regional inequalities will continue to deepen.

In Geographic studies, settlements are represented on maps with dots, the point patterns of these dots are in turn used to determine the causal factors of the patterns for planning and decision making purposes. According to McGrew and Monroe (2000), the nature of the point pattern can reveal information about the process that produces the geographic results. In addition, a series of point pattern of the same variable recorded at different periods can help to determine temporal changes in the location process.

Ikusemoran (2016) discussed the characteristics of the three main point patterns as:

(i) Clustered Point Pattern: In clustered point pattern, all the settlements are very close to each other in one or more parts or region in the area, that is, the density of the points vary significantly from one part of an area to another (Fig. 1). This type of points may be sites of tertiary economic activities (retail and service functions), mining area, administrative headquaters, nodal points, among others. The Rn value of clustered pattern is 0.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Fig. 1. Clustered Points

(ii) Random Point Pattern: The pattern suggests that there is no pattern of distribution because the settlements are randomly distributed resulting into a scattered form of settlement pattern (Fig. 2). Random pattern has an Rn value of 1.0

Fig. 2. Random Points

(iii) Regular Point Pattern: The pattern is perfectly uniform with equal distances between the settlements (Fig. 3). If the settlement pattern appears uniformly distributed across an area, it suggests that a systematic spatial process produced the locational pattern. Such settlement pattern can only be found in a perfectly government planned areas. The Rn value is 2.15

Fig. 3. Regular Points

Interpretations of point pattern are based on the Rn values:

♦ Clustering occur (complete clustering) when all the data are very close to themselves. In an extreme clustering case, Rn is equal to zero (Rn=0)

♦ Random distribution (extreme or complete random) occurs where there is no pattern at all. In this case, Rn is equal to one (Rn = 1).

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

♦ Regular patterns are perfectly uniform. They are rarely found in reality. Its Rn value is 2.15 or more which means that each dot is equidistant from its entire neighbors.

In most Geographic problems, a point pattern will not provide a totally clear indication that the pattern is clustered, dispersed or random, but rather shows a combination of these arrangements with tendencies from random towards either clustered or regularity as shown in Fig. 4.

Rn value 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2..15

Tendency towards clustering Tendency towards reguarity Clustered Random Regular {Nucleated) {Uniform}

Fig. 4. Point Pattern Analysis

Many studies have been carried out to investigate point pattern analysis especially settlement patterns based on the traditional technique commonly referred to as Nearest Neighbour Analysis which is a common procedure for analyzing the spatial arrangements or the determination of settlement patterns. This method entails complex manual procedures such as the determination of settlement locations, nearest neighbour of each of the settlements, calculation of the distances between the nearest neighbours, calculations and computations of Rn values. Moreover, Waugh (1995) also noted that the reliability of the result of Nearest Neighbour depends on several factors such as the size of the area, the numbers of the settlenments, the terrain factor, determination of the center of each settlements and finally the expertise and experience of the analyst. All these challenges make the results of the technique to be inaccurate in some cases. Recently, the use of geostatistical technique has been appreciated in Nigeria, while Isah and Abdullahi (2015) applied geostatistics to analyze water quality parameters in some rivers and streams in Niger State, Ikusemoran, Bayo and Elijah (2018) used the technique to analyze rainfall pattern and prediction

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 in Taraba State. Therefore, in this study, geospatial and geostatistical techniques which have the capability of spatial and statistical analysis, and also automatic determinations of all the activities that are difficult to carry out in manual methods such as measurement of distances, determination of areas and center points among others, were used to analyze the settlement patterns of Adamawa and Taraba States which may be useful for regional developmental planning.

The main objectives of this study are:

(i) To map the locations of settlements in Adamawa and Taraba States using geospatial techniques. (ii) To analyze the patterns of the Avearge Nearest Neighbour of the settlements in the two States with geospatial statistical tools. (iii) To assess the effect of the topography on settlement patterns through Hot Spot Analysis of the relief and the settlement locations in the States. (iv) To carry out comparative analysis of the settlement patterns between the two States

Description of Study Area

Adamawa and Taraba States which were formerly Gongola State comprise the study area. Adamawa State which occupies a land area of 38050.05km2 is bounded in the East by Republic of Cameroon, North by Borno and Gombe States and to the South and West by Taraba State (Fig. 5). Taraba State occupies a land area of 57139.28km2, which means that in terms of area landmass, Taraba State is larger than Adamawa State. Taraba State is bounded in the North by Bauchi and Plateau States, and in the West by Nassarawa and Benue States. It is bordered by Republic of Cameroon to the South and Eastern parts of the State (Fig. 5). Adamawa State has twenty-one (21) Local Government Areas, while Taraba State has sixteen (16) LGAs. The 2006 Population and Housing Census of Nigeria (NPC 2007) put the population of Adamawa State as 3,178,950 and that of Taraba State as 2,294,800. This means that the population of Adamawa State was almost a million more than that of Taraba State.

In terms of relief, the two States are endowed with numerous highlands and mountains. For instance, in Adamawa State, the Mandara Mountains in the Mubi region, Atlantika, Shebsi (with larger portion in Taraba State) and Vogel peaks are found, while Shebsi, Wonka, Fali, Chappal Hendu, Chappal Wade, Gotel and Wanga Mountains are located in Taraba State (Fig. 5). The highest peak in Adamawa State with an elevation of 1738m above sea level is at Vogel hills in Ganye LGA, while Chapal Wadi hill near Cameroon with elevation of 2398m (highest plateau in Nigeria and West Africa) is the highest peak in Taraba State. Both States are located within the floodplains of River Benue. While Rivers Gongola, Lokko/Kilange, Mayo Belwa and Mayo Inne are major tributaries to River Benue in Adamawa State, Rivers Shemanker, Wase, Donga and Taraba are main tributaries to the Benue in Taraba State (Fig. 5). The combinations of the Benue and the numerous tributaries created large floodplains within the two States.

Gashaka Gumti National Park is located in the two States. It is the largest park in Nigeria (GGNP 2011) with a land coverage of about 5784.09km2. The land area of Adamawa State section is 2162.92km2 which is about 5.69% of the entire State. The park in Taraba State covers about 3621.17km2, that is, 6.20% of the State (Fig. 5). Gashaka park comprises two sectors, the first is the Southern Gashaka sector which is mainly mountainous. The second sector is the Northern

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

Gumti sector which comprises mainly of woodland and grasslands. The park derived its name from two of the most popular settlements within the park, that is, Gashaka in the South and Gumti in the North.

Fig.5. the Study Area

Materials and Methods

Mapping of settlement patterns in Adamawa and Taraba States

Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to generate and calculate the spatial patterns of settlements in the study area. The steps include:

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

(i) The base maps of the two States were obtained, georeferenced and digitized in ArcGIS 10.5 environment. (ii) The coordinates of the actual locations of each of the settlements in the two States were acquired using GPS or obtained from World Atlas (2009), Google Earth Pro (2019), existing data among others (where many settlements are clustered together with less than 1km distance, only one of them was chosen for the study in order to avoid selection of too many settlements in a compacted area. All the coordinates were converted into decimal degrees and inputed into excel, converted into text file and exported to the digitized map in ArcGIS software. (iii) The exported points automatically appear on their exact locations with their attribute information such as names of settlements and their serial numbers. (iv) The Terrain of the two States were generated using the ASTADigital Elevation Models (DEM) Data (ASTAGDEM2), the positions of Gashaka Gumti National Park in each of the two States were also mapped and overlain on the terrain. (v) Finally, the settlements were added to the terrain map so that the locations of each of the settlements and their corresponding terrian are easily assessed as seen in Fig. 9. (vi) The area calculation module of ArcGIS software was also used to calculate the land area of each of the States and the landcover of the entire Gashaka Gumti National Park area. Other activities such as extraction of terrain features and protected areas and the settlements within each portion were carried out in ArcGIS environment using appropriate modules such as extraction by mask and clipping.

Determination of Average nearest Neighbour

The analyzing pattern of the spatial statistical tool of ArcGIS 10.5 software was used to calculate the average nearest neighbour of the settlements in the two States as displayed in Figures 10a and 10b. The ArcGIS 10.5 software and geostatistical module was developed by ESRI (2016). In the module, it was stated that Average Nearest Neighbour calculates a nearest neighbor index based on the average distance from each feature to its nearest neighboring feature. The Average Nearest Neighbour tool returns five values: Observed Mean Distance, Expected Mean Distance, Nearest Neighbor Index, Z-Score, and P-Value (Table 1). The Nearest Neighbor Index is expressed as the ratio of the Observed Mean Distance to the Expected Mean Distance. The expected distance is the average distance between neighbors in a hypothetical random distribution. The interpretation of Average Nearest Neighbour is based on the fact that if the average distance is less than the average for a hypothetical random distribution, the distribution of the features being analyzed is considered clustered. If the average distance is greater than a hypothetical random distribution, the features are considered dispersed which can be summarised as: (i) If the index (average nearest neighbor ratio) is less than 1, the pattern exhibits clustering.

(ii) If the index is greater than 1, the trend is toward dispersion.

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

Hypothesis

For the Average Nearest Neighbor statistic, the null hypothesis states that features are randomly distributed (ESRI 2016). The z-scores and p-values returned by the pattern analysis tools indicates whether the null hypothesis can be rejected or not. When the p-value is very small, it means it is very unlikely (small probability) that the observed spatial pattern is the result of random processes, so the null hypothesis will be rejected (ESRI 2016).

Mapping of Hot Spots based on Settlements and Relief

The Getis-Ord Gi* method of hot spots was adopted in this study. According to ESRI (2016), the Hot Spot Analysis tool calculates the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic (pronounced G-i-star) for each feature in a dataset. The resultant z-scores and p-values shows where features with either high or low values cluster spatially. To be a statistically significant hot spot, a feature will have a high value and be surrounded by other features with high values as well.The High/Low Clustering (Getis-Ord General G) tool is an inferential statistic, which means that the results of the analysis are interpreted within the context of the null hypothesis.

The null hypothesis for the High/Low Clustering (General G) statistic states that there is no spatial clustering of feature values. When the p-value returned by this tool is small and statistically significant, the null hypothesis can be rejected. If the null hypothesis is rejected, then the sign of the z-score becomes important. If the z-score value is positive, the observed General G index is larger than the expected General G index, indicating high values for the attribute are clustered in the study area. If the z-score value is negative, the observed General G index is smaller than the expected index, indicating that low values are clustered in the study area. ESRI (2016) summarized the interpretation of the Getis-Ord Gi* method of hot spots as follows:

(i) If the p-value isnot statistically significant: the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. This means that it is quite possible that the spatial distribution of feature attribute values is the result of random spatial processes. (ii) If the p-valueisstatistically significant, and the z-score is positive. The null hypothesis is rejected. That is, the spatial distribution of highvalues in the dataset is more spatially clustered than would be expected if underlying spatial processes were truly random (iii) If the p-value is statistically significant, and the z-score is negative. The null hypothesis is rejected. The spatial distribution oflowvalues in the dataset is more spatially clustered than would be expected if underlying spatial processes were truly random

In this study, hot spots of the settlement pattern based on the relief was examined to determine how clustered are the patterns on high and low relief. To achieve this, the location of each of the settlements in each State were compared to the relief so as to determine the hot spots and cold spots based on the terrain as shown in Figs 11 and 12.

Comparative Analysis of Settlement Patterns between the two States

Comparative analysis of the settlement patterns between the two States were based on: (i) the number of settlements, (ii) Nearest neighbour index (Rn values) (iii) settlement densities based on the terrain and (iv) settlement densities in the protected areas.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Legend Adamawa Settlement Adamawa Relief 463.1 - 649 = Plains State Boundary [meters] 649.1 - 942 = Upland International_Boundary 127 - 304 = Low Floodplains 942.1 - 1,659 = Mountains River_Benue 304.1 - 463 = High Floodplains Gashaka_Gumti Park

Fig. 6. Settlements distribution on the terrain in Adamawa State

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

Fig. 7. Settlements distribution on the terrain in Taraba State

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Result of the Findings The analysis of the settlement pattern was categorized into the following: Settlement Distribution in Adamawa and Taraba State

Adamawa State has a total of 586 settlements as against Taraba State with 579, (only one settlement among all those within less than 1km distance from each other were sampled for this study). It was observed that though Taraba State is far larger in land area size than Adamawa State with 38006.41km2 and 58378.51km2 respectively, the two States have similar numbers of settlements. The settlement distribution of the two States are shown in Figs. 8 and 9.

Legend Adamawa Settlements State Boundary International Boundary

Fig. 8. Settlements distribution in Adamawa State

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

Fig. 9. Settlements distribution in Taraba State

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Average Nearest Neighbour of the settlement patterns in the two States

The Average Nearest Neighbor tool returns five values: Observed Mean Distance, Expected Mean Distance, Nearest Neighbor Index, z-score and p-value (Table 1).

Table 1. Nearest Neighbour returns in Adamawa and Taraba states

Values Adamawa State Taraba State

Observed Mean Distance 4918.8866 (meters) 5364.4438 (meters)

Expected Mean Distance 5361.5664 (meters) 6100.0918 (meters)

Nearest Neighbour Index 0.917435 0.879404

Z-Scores -3.754509 -5.512932

P-Values 0.000174 0.000000

Source: Generated from ArcGIS 10.5 spatial statistics module

The Nearest Neighbor Index is expressed as the ratio of the Observed Mean Distance to the Expected Mean Distance. The nearest neighbour index means the average distance between the settlements in each of the State. For Adamawa State for instance, the average distance among the settlements is approximately 0.92 meters, while Taraba State has average of 0.88 meters. These findings suggest that if the settlements distribution of each of the two States are well spread, the average distances between the settlements in each of the two States are not up to a kilometer.

The Average Nearest Neighbour index in the States as well as their corresponding z-values are presented in Figures 10a and 10b. Average Nearest Neighbour calculates a nearest neighbor index based on the average distance from each settlement to its nearest neighbour. The nearest neighbour index (average nearest neighbor ratio) which is akin to Rn values in point pattern analysis for the settlement pattern in Adamawa State was calculated as 0.92, while that of Taraba State was 0.88. Settlements pattern seem to be similar in some parts of Nigeria. For instance, Abdullahi (2009) in his work on the settlement pattern in Kwajaffa districts, Biu plateau in Borno State, arrived at 0.90 Rn value, while Ahmed (2009) in his analysis of settlement pattern in a LGA in Kwara State arrived at 1.12, both of which are more of random pattern.

Using the nearest neighbour index interpretation format and since the nearest neighbour index are 0.92 and 0.88 in Adamawa and Taraba States respectively, the settlement patterns in both States can therefore be said to exhibit clustering pattern since the index (average nearest neighbor ratio) is less than one (1) in both States. Therefore, since it has been established that the two States have clustering pattern, the factors that cause the clustering can be identified and analyzed.

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

Fig. 10a. Average Neighbour Summary in Adamawa State.Fig. 10b. Average neighbour summary in Taraba State

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Hop Spot Analysis

According to ESRI (2016), in the Average Nearest Neighbor statistic, the null hypothesis states that features are randomly distributed. The z-scores and p-values returned by the pattern analysis tools helps to decide whether the null hypothesis can be rejected or not. In Figures 10a and 10b, and Table 1, the returned p-values are small (0.000174 for Adamawa and 0.000000 for Taraba) and the z-scores are both negative (-3.75 in Adamawa State and -5.51 in Taraba State). Using the rule of hot spot analysis the result falls in the third category, that is, the p-value is statistically significant because the p-value is very small which means it is very unlikely (small probability) that the observed spatial pattern is a result of random processes, so the null hypothesis is rejected in the two States and conclusions are made that the settlements are not randomly distributed but some existing factors results into the clustering pattern of the settlements. The z-scores are also negative, hence the null hypothesis is rejected. The existence of clustering in an area is an evidence of some underlying spatial processes at work, that is, some factors must have led to the clustering of such settlements.

The statistical significant interpretation of Hot Spot, is that forstatistically significant positive z-scores, the larger the z-score is, the more intense the clustering of high values (hot spot). For statistically significant negative z-scores, the smaller the z-score is, the more intense the clustering of low values (cold spot). Hence, looking at the the z-scores values of the two States, both are negative which means there are more intense of low values, that is more clustered settlement in the low terrain in the two States. This means that settlements are more concentrated in the plains than the mountanous areas in the two States. However, since the z-score of Adamawa State (-3.75) is less than that of Taraba State with -5.52, and since the smaller the z-score is, the more intense the clustering of low values (cold spot), it can be concluded that Adamawa State has more clustered settlements in the low terrain than that of Taraba State as evidenced in Table 2 where 547 out of the 586 settlements (93.34%) in the State are located within the plains, that is, either low flood plains, high floodplains or the plains as against Taraba State where 523 out of the 579 settlements (90.33%) are located in the plains (low flood plains, high flood plains and plains).

The significant levels of the clustering nature of the settlements based on the elevation of each of the two States at the three popular level of significant of 0.10 (95%), 0.05 (95%) and 0.01 (90%) are presented in Figures 11 and 12.

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

Legend Hot Spots Analysis Gi_Bin

!( Cold Spot - 99% Confidence

!( Cold Spot - 95% Confidence

!( Cold Spot - 90% Confidence

!( Not Significant

!( Hot Spot - 90% Confidence

!( Hot Spot - 95% Confidence

!( Hot Spot - 99% Confidence Adamawa Settlement State Boundary Gashaka_Gumti Park International_Boundary River_Benue Adamawa DEM [meters] 127 - 304 304.1 - 463 463.1 - 649 649.1 - 942 942.1 - 1,659

Fig. 11. Hot Spots of settlements on relief in Adamawa State

In Adamawa State, hot spots clustering (clustering of settlements on high elevation) at 99% confidence level were found mainly on elevation from 463.1m above the sea level (Fig. 11). They are conspicous on the Vogel hills in Ganye and Tungo LGAs, the Mandara Mountains in the Mubi region comprising; Mubi North and South, Michika, Maiha and Madagali LGAs and some parts of Hong, Gombi and Song LGAs. Those at 90% confidence level, were mainly on plains with elevation ranging from 304.1m to 463m above sea level. Clustering of settlements at the low relief was more conspicious in Adamawa State because at 99% confidence level, the entire Benue valley of the State returned 99% confidence level of cold spots, that is clustering of settlements on low terrain as revealed in Fig. 12.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Legend Hot Spots Analysis Gi_Bin

!( Cold Spot - 99% Confidence

!( Cold Spot - 95% Confidence

!( Cold Spot - 90% Confidence

!( Not Significant

!( Hot Spot - 90% Confidence

!( Hot Spot - 95% Confidence

!( Hot Spot - 99% Confidence Gashaka Park River_Benue Taraba DEM [Meters] 76 - 303 = Low Floodplains 303.1 - 582 = High Floodplains 582.1 - 925 = Plains 925.1 - 1,320 = Uplands 1,320.1 - 2,348 = Highlands

Fig. 12. Hot Spots of settlements on relief in Taraba State

In Taraba State, hot spots and cold spots clustering are highly conspicous as hot spots clustering at 99% cofidence level were found mainly on the Mambilla plateau in Sardauna and Gashaka LGAs as well as the mountain areas in Zing and Yorro LGAs of the State. Unlike in Adamawa State where the entire Benue valley was significant at 99% confidence level, the Benue valley revealed 99% confidence level of cold spots clustering within the boundary of Gassol and Ardo Kola LGAs along River Benue (Fig. 12). At 95%, settlements in Taraba State clusters in some parts of Ardo Kola, Donga, Gassol, Karim Lamido, Takum and Wukari LGAs. Settlements distribution at the remaining parts of the low floodplains in Taraba State were found not to be significant (Fig.12). This further confirms that Adamawa State has more clustered settlements in the low terrain than that of Taraba State since the z- score of Adamawa State (-3.75) is less than that of Taraba State with -5.52 and since the smaller the z- score is, the more intense the clustering of low values (cold spot).

Comparative analysis of settlement patterns between the two states

Comparative analysis of the settlement patterns between the two States were based on: (i) the number of settlements, (ii) States’ settlement density (iii) Nearest neighbour index (Rn values) (iv) Settlement densities based on the terrain and (vi) Settlement densities in the protected areas. The results were presented in Table 2.

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

In Table 2, it was revealed that while Adamawa State has a total settlements of 586, with a land area of 38006.41. The settlement density of the State was calculated as 64.86, while Taraba State with 579 settlements and 58378.51 land area has settlement density of 100.83. This means that Adamawa State has an average of one settlement at every 64.86 kilometers, while Taraba State has an average settlement at every 100.83 kilometers. Therefore, Taraba State which is larger in size than Adamawa State can be said to have fewer settlements and larger settlement density than Adamawa State. The average nearest neighbour of Adamawa State was also calculated as 0.92, while that of Taraba State was 0.88 both suggesting clustering nature of the settlement patterns in the two States Table. 2. Comparisons of settlement distribution on the terrain of Adamawa and Taraba State

Adamawa State Taraba State Number of settlements 586 579 Avearge Nearest Neigbour Index 0.92 0.88 Terrain Area % of No of Density Area % of No of Density (km2) State Settlements (km2) State Settlements Mountains 1548.71 4.07 10 (1.71%) 154.87 3524.90 6.04 39 90.38 Uplands 3247.21 8.54 29(4.95%) 111.97 2642.25 4.53 17 155.43 Plains 11209.43 29.49 210 53.37 5471.17 9.37 23 237.88 (35.84%) High 9640.11 25.36 152 63.42 9453.75 16.19 102 92.68 Floodplains (25.94%) Low 12360.95 32.52 185 66.82 37286.44 63.87 398 93.68 Floodplains TOTAL 38006.41 100 586 64.86 58378.51 100 579 100.83 Protected 2162.92 5.69 21 135.18 3621.17 6.20 21 172.44 Areas

Source: Derived from settlement and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) analysis Number of settlements, settlement densities and average nearest neighbour index

Settlement densities on terrain types

Settlement density based on the terrain was presented in Table 2. The terrain of the two States were classified into five: the low floodplains, high floodplains, plains, uplands and mountain areas. For Adamawa State, the density is higher on the plains, high floodplains and the low floodplains. The terrain with the highest settlement density in the State is the plains with an average of a settlement at every 53.37 kilometers, while the mountains has the least with a settlement at every 154.87 kilometers. In Taraba State, settlement density is more on the mountains than other terrain types with a settlement at every 90.38 kilometers, closely followed by high and low floodplains with a settlement at every 92.68 and 93.68 kilometers respectively. Contrary to Adamawa State which has the highest settlement density in the plain, the plain of Taraba State has the least settlement density of an average of one settlement at every 237.88 kilometers, while the plain of Adamawa covers about 11,209.43 square kilometers, Taraba State has only 5,471.17 square kilometers as plain. The summary of this finding is that settlements are more clusterd in the plains of Adamawa State while the high and low floodplains are more compacted with settlements in Taraba State with the plains of the State having more scattered settlements.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Settlement densities in the protected areas

About 6% of the land area in each of the two States are protected areas, that is, Gashaka-Gumti National Park (Figures 6 and 7). The Gashaka Gumti Nationl Park which is supposed to be free from permanent habitation was discovered to house some settlements in the two States. In Adamawa State, an average of every 143.72 kilometers of protected land area has one settlement. The case is better in Taraba State with one settlement at every 160.27 kilometers. The existence of settlements within the park was based on mutual agreement between the inhabitants and the federal goverment as reported by GGNP (2011). Akinsoji, Adeonipekun, Adeniyi, Oyebanji and Eluwole (2016), Oruonye, Ahmed, Garba and Danjuma (2017) have also reported that enclaves and other settlements exist within the camp for local pastoralist and farming communities. Among the enclaves are Gumti, Tipsun, Nyumti, Selbe, Mayo Sabere, Filinga, Hendu among others. Oruonye, et al (2017), stated that the major occupations of the enclave communities in the park are farming, livestock husbandry, vocational jobs, civil service with few hunters and fishermen. They engage in subsistence farming and crops cultivated include maize, groundnut, millet, guinea corn, beans soya beans, rice, yams, sugar cane, and cassava.

Conclusion

In this study, the location, distribution and pattern of settlements in Adamawa and Taraba States were generated and analyzed using geospatial and geostatistical techniques. The need for even developemnt calls for settlement pattern assessment through which spatial pattern analysis can be used for regional planning and development. The use of manual determination of settlement pattern such as the popular nearest neighbour analysis has been considered obsolete since modern technology especially in the field of GIS has the capability of automatic generation of most of the determinants of point patterns such as, accurate positional accuracy of settlement locations, automatic generation of z- scores, p-values and hypothesis rejection/acceptance and most importantly nearest neighbour index commonly referred to as Rn values in manual methods, among others.

The settlement patterns in both States also exhibit clustering patternbecause the index (average nearest neighbor ratio) is less than one (1) in both States. The average nearest neighbour index of Adamawa State was calculated as 0.92, while that of Taraba State was 0.88 both suggesting clustering nature of the settlement patterns in the two States. Therefore, since it has been established that the two States have clustering pattern, the existence of clustering settlement patterns in the two State is an evidence of some underlying spatial processes at work, that is, some factors must have led to the clustering nature of the settlement patterns. Clustering of settlements at the low relief was more conspicious in Adamawa State because the entire Benue valley of the State returned 99% confidence level of cold spots, that is clustering of settlements on low terrain. In Taraba State, only some patches of land area within the Benue valley were clustered and not the entire valley. However, settlements were more clustered on the Mambilla plateau in Taraba State than the highlands of Adamawa State where only some few ones were clustered. Investigation of the factors that cause the clustering of settlements in some parts in both States is suggested for further studies, while the use of geospatial and geostistaical techniques for the determination of settlement pattern analysis should be encouraged for accurate results. Regional planners should also integrate settlement patterns analysis with other factors for even developemntal planning since the patterns exposes clustered areas which are usually more populated and moreover, may suggest the likely factors that make such areas to be clustered.

Geostatistical Techniques for Settlement Pattern Analysis of Adamawa and Taraba States, North East Nigeria.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of the study, the following recommendations are proferred.

(i) Settlement pattern analysis should be seen as an important aspect of even developmental planning and hence, be integrated in regional planning processes. (ii) The use of manual methods of determination of settlement patterns should be discouraged because of inaccuracies that are commonly associated, while geospatial techniques which is easier to process with reliable results should be encouraged. (iii) Investigation of the possible factors resulting into the clustering of settlements in specific places should be carried out so as to find out how such factors can lead to the development of other areas.

References

Abdullahi, J. (2009). Landforms and settlement pattern in Kwajaffa district, Biu plateau. In Issues in the Geography of Borno State. Adamu Joji press, vol 1. Pp 40-46

Advanced Spaceborn Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer; Global Elevation Model V.2. (ASTERGDEM V2 2011); obtained online earthexplorer.usgs.gov

Ahmed Y.A. (2009). Settlement pattern and functional distribution in an emerging communities: A case of a LGA in Kwara State. Medwell journals: The social sciences (4) 3 pp 256 to 263 Akinsoji, A., Adeonipekun, P.A., Adeniyi, T.A. Oyebanji, O.O. and Eluwole T.A. (2016). Evaluation and flora diversity of Gashaka Gumti National Park-1, Gashaka Sector, Taraba State, Nigeria. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management. Vol 9, No 6 (2016)

Environment Systems Research Institute (ESRI 2016). ArcGIS Software, Version 10.5; (2016). Spatial statistical tools. www.esri.com

Gashaka-Gumti National Park (GGNP 2011). Gashaka-Gumti National Park guide. Retrieved fromhttps://www.cometonigeria.com/...parks/gashaka-gumti-national-park/. Retreived on 30th May, 2019

Google Earth Pro. (2019). United States Department of State Geographers.

Hazel, M.C., Steven, M.O. and David, T. (2004). An assessment of changes in the montane forests of Taraba State, Nigeria, over the past 30 years. Fauna and flora international, volume 38, Issue 3, July, 2004. Pp 282-290

Ikusemoran, Mayomi (2016). Advanced quantitative techniques: Course module for distance learning, University of Maiduguri center for distance learning. Unimaid Portal.

Ikusemoran, Mayomi, Bayo, E.B. and Elijah, E. (2018). Geostatistical analysis of pattern of rainfall ditribution and prediction in Taraba state, Nigeria. Adamawa state university journal of scientific research. Vol. 6 (2). August, 2018. Pp 301-314

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Ilesanmi, F. A. (2013) Regional development planning proposal for Adamawa state, Nigeria using the core periphery model. International journal of arts, management and humanities 2 (2). Pp 21-34

Isah, A. and Abdullahi, U. (2015). An application of geostatistics to analysis of water quality parameters in rivers and streams in Niger state, Nigeria. American journal of theoretical and applied statistics. Vol. 4, No. 5, 2015, pp. 373-388. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150405.18

McGrew, J.C. and Monroe, C.B. (2000). An introduction to statistical problem solving in geography.2nd ed. Boston: McGraw-Hill, c2000. p39

National Population Commission (2007). 2006 population and housing census of the federal republic of Nigeria: National and state population and housing tables, priority tables. Volume 1

Oladayo R.I. (2017) Issues in regional planning and developemnt in Nigeria. journals.uran.ua›chseg/article/download/108305/…Pp79-82. Retrieved 30th May, 2019.

Oruonye, E.D., Ahmed, M.Y., Garba, A. H. and Danjuma, R.J. (2017). An assessment of the ecotourism potential of Gashaka Gumti National Park in Nigeria. Asian research journal of arts and social sciences 3(2): 2017, pp 1-11,

Waugh, D. (1995). Geography: An integrated approach. Thomas Nelson and sons ltd. P320. p 371

World Atlas (2009). Encarta Premium DVD. Microsoft encarta and student program manager, microsoft way, Redmond, WA 98052-6399, USA.

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria

1John Abdullahi PhD and 1Ngadda, S.T.

1Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Maiduguri, PMB 1069, Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria. Email: [email protected]@gmail.com,

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of soil on gully erosion in Tumfure, Gombe urban, Gombe State Nigeria. The specific objectives are: to determine whether some properties of the soil in Tumfure enhance gully erosion, identify and map out the areas affected by gully, measure the morphologies of the gully sites and assess the impact of the gully erosion in the area. Data used in this study were derived from field measurements, satellite imageries, and field investigation. The study used laboratory and Arc GIS software for the analysis. Laboratory analysis of soil particle size revealed that the mean particle distribution of soil texture along the gully wall shows sand 73%, silt 17% and clay 8%. Sand has significant relationship with gully advancement. Soil chemical properties also showed that the soils are slightly acidic (top layer) and moderately acidic, contained low organic matter. Results from the interpretation of satellite imageries (2005) and (2016) imageries and field measurements showed that gully variables (length, depth and widths) have significantly increased in the last 12 years. The study showed that the socioeconomic impact of gully erosion includes loss of lives and properties where over 100 houses were either at the verge of collapse or destruction, displacement of people, destruction of road networks and culverts. The study recommends, among others, that enlightenment campaign on soil conservation measures, cheap and effective methods such as biological and engineering measures of controlling as well as preventing gully erosion be put in place by the people and government. Similarly, reforestation of catchment areas and eroded lands can be effective in reclaiming and controlling gully corridors in the affected areas.

Keywords: Gombe State, Gully erosion, Nigeria, Soil and Tumfure.

Introduction

Soil erosion generally is caused by a combination of factors working concurrently or individually to remove, transport and deposit soil particles other locations other than where they were removed. The consequences of this processes are deep cuttings and badlands which dissects the entire environment. These are very common features all over the geographical regions of Nigeria and Gombe in particular. It has been established by earth scientists that several environmental factors as well as soil parameter accelerate the extent of soil erosion where ever it occurs. These factors are, perhaps, facilitated by human factors known as anthropogenic factors. However, man has assisted greatly in modifying and conserving the environment, yet, man has also engaged in creating instability of equilibrium in the natural environment resulting in wide range of environmental problems such as gully erosion.

The rate of erosion depends on many physical and human factors. Physical factors include climate, geology, landform (slope), soil and vegetation. The amount and intensity of precipitation, the average temperature as well as the temperature range, the wind speed, and storm frequency are some

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 climatic elements that correlate with erosion (Ziebell and Leongtha, 1999). The geologic factors include the rock type; its porosity and permeability, the slope (gradient) of the land, and the rock structure such as tilt, fault and weathered mantle while biological factors include the ground cover by vegetation and the type of organisms inhabiting the area, and the land use.

Soil erodibility is an estimate of the ability of soil to resist erosion, based on the physical characteristics of each soil. Generally, soils with faster infiltration rates, higher levels of organic matter and improved soil structure have a greater resistance to erosion (Hilborn and Stone, 2000). Sand, sandy loam and loam-textured soils tend to be less erodible than silt, very fine sand, and certain clay textured soils. Tillage and cropping practices, which lower soil organic matter levels, cause poor soil structure, and result of compacted soils, contribute to increases in soil erodibility. Decreased infiltration and increased runoff can be a result of compacted subsurface soil layers. On some sites, a soil crust might decrease the amount of soil loss from sheet or rain splash erosion, however, a corresponding increase in the amount of runoff water can contribute to greater rill erosion problems. Past erosion has an effect on a soil’s erodibility for a number of reasons. Many exposed subsurface soils on eroded sites tend to be more erodible than the original soils were because of their poorer structure and lower organic matter. The lower nutrient levels often associated with subsoil contribute to lower crop yields and generally poorer crop cover, which in turn provides less crop protection for the soil (Albert, Samson, Adeyinka, Peter and Olufunmilayo, 2006).

Gully erosion is one of the major environmental problems threatening the environment in Nigeria and Gombe town in particular since 1980s. Gully erosion is caused by both natural and man- made factors but the impact of either natural or man-made factors vary from one environment to another. The condition of gully erosion in Gombe is getting worse every year; from the very moment Gombe town was made a state capital. The quest for infrastructural development coupled with population explosion, have significantly increased the problems of gully erosion in the Tumfure, Gombe urban. Over the years, it has been observed that places that were characterized with small rills have now developed into gullies. Despite the efforts made by both Federal and State Governments towards addressing the problem of gully erosion through various contracts for gully erosion control at some gully sites in Gombe town, it is not yielding the expected results in curtailing the menace which could be attributed to lack of adequate information on the other factors responsible for gully erosion especially nature of soil in the area. Thus, effort at curtailing the menace of gully erosion in Tumfure, Gombe urban requires understanding of the dynamics of the processes responsible for its development.

This study is, therefore, aimed at examining the effects of soil on gully erosion in Tumfure in order to suggest adequate mitigation measures especially in the context of achieving sustainable development. The specific objectives of the study are: to identify and map out the gully sites; determine whether some properties of the soil in Tumfure enhance gully erosion and to measure the morphologies of the gully sites and its effects on the environment.

Literature Review

The sub-Saharan African countries are faced by serious environmental degradation resulting in desert encroachment, desertification, draught and soil erosion due to either wind impact or very high intensive rainfall resulting in heavy runoff and soil loss (Igwe, 2012). The high torrential rainfall, geology, soil, topography, scanty vegetation and human activities in the environment create an enabling environment for destructive soil erosion. Although the starting point of soil erosion through splash,

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria sheet, rill and inter-rill are common, they are easily managed by the people through recommended soil conservation practices (Ofomata, 2007). Igwe (2012) observes that the gully forms of erosion have assumed a different dimension such that settlements and scarce arable land are threatened. Therefore, gully erosion problems have become a course for concern or subject of discussion among geographers, geologists, environmentalists and soil scientists (Jeje and Agu 1990). Ofomata (2007) observes that gully erosion is the most spectacular forms of erosion in Nigeria mainly because of the remarkable feature they leave on the environment. As a result of an increase in development activities coupled with soil factors, the number and magnitude of gully erosion have increased significantly.

Since1930s, the colonial government in Nigeria has undertaken the campaign of tree planting with the primary purpose of controlling erosion especially around areas characterized by steep slopes. Ever since then, there has been concerted efforts at understanding the causes of thisenvironmental problem. Several studies such as Ofomata (1975and 1985) and Igwe (1999) have indicated that the environmental factors of climate in form of rainfall intensity and duration, vegetation, geology, geomorphology and the soil factor, all play significant role in the formation and development of gully erosion. The consequence of the soil erosion is loss of land for development, agriculture and other human activities.

Igwe (1994) has observed that the human factors comprise mainly of land use and agricultural practices and the nature of agro-technology. Giordano, Bonfils and Briggs (1991) establish that among the factors that accelerate soil erosion is clearance of vegetation, intensive harvesting (deforestation) and over-grazing leaving the soil susceptible to erosion. Other factors are destruction of soil structure, texture and soil compaction as a result of human activities such as construction which reduces the infiltration capacity of the soil and generates excessive surface runoff that accelerates soil erosion. In studies carried out by Renard, Foster, Weesies, McCool and Yoder (1997), and Igwe, Akamigbo and Mbagwu (1999) have recognized, among other factors, vegetation, topography, rainfall and pedological factors as being the primary determinant factors that influence the formation and development of gully erosion.

Hudson (1981) in his study established that steep slopes is more susceptible to water erosion compared to flat land for reasons that erosive forces, splash, scour and transport, all have greater effect on steep slopes. Thus, slope steepness, length and the amount of soil erosion has always been proportional to the steepness of the slope. Ofomata (1999) establishes that there is a significant relationship between relief and soil erosion rate. According to Lal (1976) there is a significant increase of soil erosion as the slope changes from 5 to 15%. For example, he recorded a total soil loss of 230 t/ha/yr from bare plots on a 15% slope as against soil loss of 11.2 t/ha/yr on 1% slope.

According to Igwe (1995) the erodibility of soil is defined as the vulnerability or susceptibility of the soil to the agents of erosion. Igwe further observes that a number of factors such as both physical and the chemical properties of the soil determine its erodibility. Igwe (1995) observes that the level of soil organic matter (SOM), the clay content of soil and sesquioxides such as Fe oxides and Al, mean- weight diameter (MWD), clay dispersion ratio (CDR), and geometric-mean weight diameter(GMD) of soil aggregates all accelerate soil erosion problem.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Landuse and Vegetation are one of the most significant factors in the process of soil erosion. Stocking (1987) observes that vegetation acts in a variety of ways as an umbrella by intercepting raindrops through encouraging greater infiltration of water and through increasing surface soil organic matter thereby reducing soil erodibility. Lal (1983) finds out that choosing an appropriate landuse practice can significantly reduce soil erosion in an area.

Materials and Methods

Tumfure forms part of Gombe town and also the capital of Gombe State. It is located between latitudes 100161’’N to 10009’’1N and longitudes110041E and 11007’1E as shown in Fig. 1. It is bordered with Wuroand Billiri to the South, Shango to the North, Gombe town to the East and Lafiyawo in the West. It covers an area of about 12km2 (Lands and Survey, Gombe, 2008).

Fig 1: Akko LGA Showing Tumfure Source: Modified from Quick Bird Satellite Imagery (2018)

Soil sampling Soil samples were collected from the gully sites at an interval of 200m. This is to determine the susceptibility of soil to gully erosion. Soil samples were taken at the top and bottom of the gully side wall, noting changes in soil colour using 30m linen tape. A total of thirty (30) samples at fifteen (15) points were collected and kept in polythene bags for laboratory analysis. The guiding principle for

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria sample collections was based on the point where measurement of the gully morphology was carried out at the main gully site (Tumfure stream). The samples were collected simultaneously with measurement of the gully morphology and coordinates taken at each point so as to cover the entire Tumfure stream, which is the main gully site in the study area. All collected samples were labelled and named after the gully erosion site (with their geographic coordinates) where they were collected from and taken to Soil Science Laboratory, University of Maiduguri, for analysis using Standard Rating Scale (SRS).

Laboratory Analysis of Soil Samples

Both the physical and chemical properties of the soil samples were analysed using the standard laboratory techniques. The Cation-Exchange Capacity (CEC) by direct cation saturation method that is Ammonium Acetate. The Phosphorus determination by Bray No 1 and Kurt2 method (ppmp). The Lime requirement determination was carried out by Barium chloride Tri-ethanolamine method. The soil organic matter determination by Wakley Black wet oxidation method. The texture determination by Bouyouco (Hydrometer) method (%)The total Nitrogen determination by regular macro-Kjeldehi method (%). The pH determination by potentiometric method or by the electrode pH mete. Soil samples collected were analysed to determine the soil physical (proportion of sand, silt and clay), moisture content and chemical properties (organic matter, organic carbon and soil pH). These variables are considered as critical indicators in contributing to gully erosion.

pH determination in Soil samples

In determining the soil pH, 10g of soil sample was weighed into a 50ml beaker and 25ml distilled water was added. The suspension was allowed to stand for one hour with occasioned stirring using a glass-rod (stirrer). The pH meter was calibrated using buffer solutions of pH4.0 and pH7.0, before being immersed into the supernatant of suspension. The reading was taken when it was fairly stable without further stirring. The reading was then recorded as “soil pH measured in 1:2:5 soil water ratios”. The electrodes of the pH meter were then rinsed with distilled water and wiped dry with a clean tissue before being immersed in distilled water prior to each subsequent measurement. The suspensions were then stored for EC determination which was taken in the same manner with the use of an EC meter. The results of which were recorded in MSCM-1 and DSM-1.

Table1: Critical Value for pH Determination S/N Critical Value pH Level 1. 4.5 Extremely acidic 2. 4.6-5.0 Very Strongly acidic 3. 5.1-5.5 Strongly acidic 4. 5.6-6.0 Moderately acidic 5. 6.1-6.5 Slightly acidic 6. 6.6-7.3 Neutral 7. 7.4- 7.8 Slightly alkaline 8. 7.9-8.5 Moderately alkaline 9. 8.6-9.0 Strongly alkaline 10. 9.0 Very strongly alkaline Source: Critical Level for pH according to Mahler and McDole (1985; 1987)

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Determination of Particle Size Analysis

The hydrometer method (Bouyoucos, 1962) was used for particle size analysis (soil texture). 40g of air-dried soil sample (passed through 2mm sieve) was weighed into a 500ml beaker. 200m3 of water was added, followed by 5ml of 30% hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). The content was placed on a hot plate and heated for 15mins for the oxidation of organic matter while waiting for complete oxidation of the organic matter. 50ml of 5% sodium hexameta phosphate (calgon) solution was put into measuring cylinder and distilled water was added to the one litre mark. The content was mixed thoroughly and temperature was brought to room temperature (250C), this was recorded as the blank. The hydrometer was then inserted into the suspension and the reading was recorded as calibration correction (RL). After heating the content, the beaker was cooled to room temperature

50ml of 5% calgon solution was added to the 500ml and stirred well. The content was then transferred to a one litre measuring cylinder. Water was again added to the one litre mark. The cylinder was then covered with leather to avoid spillage. The cylinder was then placed on the table and the hydrometer was carefully but immediately inserted into the cylinder. The hydrometer reading was recorded at 40 seconds from the time of setting on the table. The same was repeated after two hours and recorded as R. The temperature was also recorded. The percentage of sand, silt and clay were calculated at different intervals using equation 1.

푅−푅퐿+푟+100 %푆 = ……………………………..Equation1 푊 Where: S = %material in suspension R = Hydrometer reading of sample RL = Calibration correction (Blank) r = Temperature correction factor W = Weight of soil sample

Determination of Organic Carbon and Organic Matter (WeioxidationMetthod by Walkey Black)

The percentage of organic carbon %O.C was determined by the Black’s (1965) wet oxidation method as described by Blacks (1965). 1g of air-dried (passed) through 0,5mm sieve) soil sample was weighed into a 250ml conical flask.10ml of 1N potassium dichromate was added with the help of clean pippete. Using a clean measuring cylinder 20ml of concentrated sulphuric acid was added, after cooling, 100ml of distilled water was added followed by 10ml of ortho-phospheric acid (H3PO4) and 0.2 of sodium fluoride (NaF). 5 drops of diphenumine indicator was added which turned the colour to deep violet.

The excess chromic acid was then titrated with 0.5 ferrous sulphate (1NFeSO4). The end point was recorded as the colour changed from deep violet to deep green. The same procedure was repeated on the blank (without soil sample). The amount of soil sample was then recorded and the strength of FeSO4 was determined and finally, the percentage organic carbon (%0.C), oxidised by potassium dichromate (K2Cr2O7) was calculated using equation

퐵−푇푋퐹 %푂. 퐶 = X 0.39…………………………. Equation 2 푊 Where: B = Amount of 0.5 FeSO4 solution required in blank titration T = Amount of 0.5 FeSO4 solution required in blank titration of sample

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria

F = Normality ofFeSO4 W = Weight of sample used Critical Level %O.C < 0.4 = Very low 0.4-1.0 = Low 1.0-1.5 = Moderate >1.5 = High And %O.M = %O.C x 1.724 Critical Level < 0.7 = Very low 0.7-2.0 = Low 2.0-3.5 = Medium 3.5-4.5 = High > 4.5 = Very high

Determination of Moisture Content

Moisture content refers to the volume of water in a given volume of soil. Result of soil analysis is usually calculated on the basis of oven-dry soil. Therefore, the moisture content of air-dry soil is usually determined shortly before soil analysis. 5-10g soil was weighed in a moisture can of known weight to 0.001g accuracy (W). Total weight of soli plus moisture can (W2) was recorded and dried at 0 105 C overnight and was allowed to cool in a desiccator and reweighed (W3).

푊푡표푓푀표푖푠푡푢푟푒 Therefore,% 푀. 퐶 = X 100…………………….Equation 3 푊푡표푓푠표푖푙푢푠푒푑

Moisture correction factor = 100 + %moisture 100

Generation of runoff data

The runoff data for the period under study were derived from Pentagon Design Consultant, (2003) formula, since there are no stream gauges in the study area. The indirect estimate of runoff was made from rainfall values obtained from Meteorological station, Gombe. The runoff formula is as presented in equation below; Q max =0.278CIA………………………………….Equation 4 3 Where Q max= peak discharge (M /s) C= dimensionless surface runoff coefficient (urban surface 0.40) I= rainfall intensity (mm/hr) A= the drainage area (km2) 0.278 = the factor which take care of the unit when converted to S.I

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Measurement of gully morphology

The main gully of second order hierarchy that initiated from the upstream to the downstream was selected for this study. The main gully includes parts of Farin-kasa, Reservoir (adjacent labour quarters), Kasuwangwari, (across Bauchi road), Longel and HammaIdrissa. The gully is a second order gully with numerous first order gullies. Gully morphological variables were analysed from GIS satellite images. This was followed by ground truth measurement of gully elements in order to compare with the satellite images. The procedure adopted for the measurement of the gully variables (gully length, width, and depth and slope angle) were as follows:

Gully Length- this is the longitudinal profiles of the gully site in the study area. The gully length was measured with a measuring tape (30m).

Gully width- this is the horizontal distance between gully banks. It was measured at 200m interval using measuring tape, ranging poles and GPS. Measuring tape was stretched across the gully to the opposite band and readings in meters were taken. The mean width was calculated following Jimoh (2001) methods:

Average Width = Sum of Width reading Number of interval points

Gully depth- this is the vertical cross-section of the gullies. To measure the gully depth, stadia rod and hand levels were employed. The stadia rod was placed on the channel bed and holding the stadia rod vertical, estimates the height of bank full stage using the hand level to sight off the bank as in the case of width readings.

Data Analysis

For determining the gully morphology, the average depth and width was calculated using Jimoh (2001) by taking the total sum of width and depth divided by the total number of intervals. For soil physical and chemical properties, rainfall data and landuse changes, the descriptive analysis were employed which includes mean and standard deviation. Soil samples were collected and taken to the laboratory for analysis. The properties analyzed include; soil physical and chemical properties (organic matter, organic carbon, soil pH, CEC, EC, Ca2, Mg2, Na and K) and moisture content. These parameters were tested using different measuring instruments in the laboratory after which the results were obtained in order to achieve the stated objectives particularly on the properties of the soil and the factors that influence gully erosion in the study area. The inferential analysis includes Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with the aid of Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS), version 16.0 which were used to find out the relationship between soil samples (top and bottom layers). These methods have been applied by Jimoh (1997, 2001), Irorkua (2006) and Mbaya (2012) in analyzing gully erosion in Ilorin, Markurdi and Gombe respectively and were found to be adequate.

Results of the Findings

The Role of Soil Chemical Properties in Gully Growth Soil pH

The study shows that nature and the long weathering history of the soils parent material as evident in the dominance of the sandy mineralogy by non-expanding minerals and low soil organic

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria matter concentration as a result of high mineralization rates and excessive leaching of nutrients could be attributed to the worsening situation of gully erosion in the area. The highly weathered soils contain high concentrations of Fe and Al oxides.

Soil pH value indicates whether the soil is acidic or alkaline. The average soil pH of the top and sub soil sample collected at the gully profile were 6.19 and 5.82 respectively with standard deviation of 0.210 as presented in Table 2. This implied that the soils are slightly acidic at the top layer and moderately acidic at the bottom layer. Mbaya (2012) in Gombe found similar pH values. Similarly, Table 3 further showed that there was no significant difference (0.230 F-Test) between the top and bottom layers of the gully profile in terms of organic matter, organic carbon and soil pH.The implication of this finding is that the soil of the study area may not be affected by micro-organisms that work on the organic matter which might enhance the binding of soils to resist erosivity of rainfall and rainfall impact.

Organic Matter Content and Organic Carbon

The organic matter content and organic carbon using Blacks (1965) method for the 30 soil samples is given in Table 2. Table 3 shows the mean values for the top and bottom layers of the gully profile to be 0.93% and 2.43% respectively. These results are considered to be low. However, there was a significant difference at the top and bottom layers of the gully profile, (>0.00 F-Test) as presented in Table 4. The possible causes of these differences might be attributed to the leaching of the organic matter down the valley floors of the gully site. This finding agreed with similar work by Orazulike (1992) and Mbaya (2012) who found that the soils are red and contain nodules of ironstone and is marked by deposits of iron oxide, loos, very permeable and deficient in plant nutrients. Organic matter content of all soil samples falls below 3%, which is considered as the threshold below which soils are erodible according to Jeje and Agu (1990). This finding is also similar to the studies carried out by Danladi and Ray (2014) and Mallam, Iguisi and Tasi’u (2016). Therefore, erodibility factor plays a major role in enhancing soil erosion in the study area. Sealing and high surface runoff is also more pronounced in soils with very low organic matter content. A poor soil structure and low plant nutrient content will cause soil to be more prone to gully erosion. This might be a contributive factor to the occurrence of gully erosion in the study area. This also has negative implication on trees planted to check gully erosion as it affects their growth and development to check erosion in the area.

On the other hand, the result of the organic carbon test in Table 3 shows that the mean for the top and bottom layers of the gully profile are 0.54% and 0.41% respectively. These results are considered low, and there is a significant difference (0.000 F-Test) between the top and the bottom layers of the gully profile in the study area.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Table 2: Soil Chemical Properties of the Gully Profiles S/N Soil Ph Organic Matter Organic Carbon Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom 1. 6.91 6.26 1.34 2.05 0.78 1.19 2. 6.78 6.11 1.03 2.38 0.60 1.38 3. 6.64 5.74 0.81 1.10 0.47 0.64 4. 6.28 5.89 0.60 2.52 0.34 1.46 5. 6.30 5.82 0.53 2.28 0.31 1.38 6. 6.38 5.61 1.02 2.90 0.59 1.33 7. 6.20 5.55 0.81 2.29 0.47 1.68 8. 5.40 5.82 0.34 2.90 0.20 1.68 9. 5.56 5.97 0.91 2.76 0.53 1.60 10. 5.48 6.02 0.95 2.69 0.55 1.56 11. 5.75 5.60 1.21 2.26 0.70 1.31 12. 6.02 5.69 0.64 2.52 0.37 1.46 13. 5.49 5.68 1.17 2.41 0.68 1.40 14. 6.95 5.61 1.02 2.93 0.59 1.70 15. 6.64 5.97 1.52 2.36 0.88 1.37

Source: Laboratory Analysis, 2018

Table 3: Soil Chemical Properties of the Gully Profiles

S/N Soil Ph Organic Matter Organic Carbon Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom 1. 6.91 6.26 1.34 2.05 0.78 1.19 2. 6.78 6.11 1.03 2.38 0.60 1.38 3. 6.64 5.74 0.81 1.10 0.47 0.64 4. 6.28 5.89 0.60 2.52 0.34 1.46 5. 6.30 5.82 0.53 2.28 0.31 1.38 6. 6.38 5.61 1.02 2.90 0.59 1.33 7. 6.20 5.55 0.81 2.29 0.47 1.68 8. 5.40 5.82 0.34 2.90 0.20 1.68 9. 5.56 5.97 0.91 2.76 0.53 1.60 10. 5.48 6.02 0.95 2.69 0.55 1.56 11. 5.75 5.60 1.21 2.26 0.70 1.31 12. 6.02 5.69 0.64 2.52 0.37 1.46 13. 5.49 5.68 1.17 2.41 0.68 1.40 14. 6.95 5.61 1.02 2.93 0.59 1.70 15. 6.64 5.97 1.52 2.36 0.88 1.37 Source: Laboratory Analysis, 2018

Table 4: Statistical Results of the Soil Chemical Properties of the Gully Profiles Variables Layers Mean SD Variance F -Test Sig. OC TOP 0.537 0.184 0.034 0.000 Sig BOTTOM 1.409 0.261 0.068 OM TOP 0.927 0.317 0.101 0.000 Sig BOTTOM 2.430 0.452 0.204 pH TOP 6.185 0.544 0.296 0.230 NS BOTTOM 5.823 0.210 0.044

Source: Laboratory Analysis, 2018

Key: OC=Organic Carbon, OM = Organic Matter, SD = Standard Deviation, NS = Non Significance, Sig= Significance

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria

The Role of Soil Physical Properties Sand, Silt and Clay Content in Gully Growth

The mean particle size distribution of the soil texture along the gully site profile is presented in the Table 4. The top layer has 6.5% clay, 78.9% sand and 14.5% silt while the bottom layer has 9.7% clay, 71.3% sand and 19.5% silt. The overall mean proportion for the top and bottom layers of the gully profile shows 8.1% clay, 75.1% sand and 17% silt respectively, indicating high erodobility due to the high proportion of sand content. Table 5 further shows that no significant differences (0.106, 0.306 and 0.069 F-Test) in the proportions of both the top and bottom layer of the gully profile. This implies that the sandstones and shales (Gombe sandstone and Pindiga formations) that dominate the geology of Gombe town have accelerated the process of gully erosion. Earlier work by Orazulike (1987) found that the Gombe sandstone and Pindiga formations are prone to gully erosion. Similar work by Ebisemiju (1989), Mbaya (2012) and Mbaya, Ayuba and Abdullahi (2012) found that gully erosion is more severe in areas dominated by sand formation because they are dispersive.

Table 4 shows that the soil textures of the gully profile are dominated by sandy loam and loamy sand which were associated with high erodobility due to high sand content that renders it easily detachable. Similar works by Ofamata (2007), Olori (2006) and Olage (1986) have shown that the dominance of sand proportion in the Nigeria savannah has accelerated gully erosion in the region.

Moisture content

The mean values of the moisture content of the top and bottom layers of the gully profile as presented in Table 5 were 6.2% and 7.6% respectively. This implies low values and could have been contributed by the long dry season despite the impact of urban wastewater that flows into the gully site. This will also have implication on the survival of paniculatu/pitadeniastrumafricanum planted to check gully erosion in the area. Table 5 further shows no significant difference between soil moisture content of the top and the bottom layers of the gully profile (P>0.487). This implies that the proportion of moisture content for the top and bottom layers is similar.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Table 5 Soil Physical Properties and Textural Class of Gully Profile S/N Top Bottom Moisture Content (%) Clay Sand Silt TC Clay Sand Silt TC Top Bottom 1. (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 2. 5.50 67.50 5.50 SL 5.50 69.50 25.00 SL 2.65 4.08 3. 10.50 67.00 10.50 SL 5.50 62.00 32.50 SL 2.55 15.90 4. 10.50 74.50 15.00 LS 5.50 74.50 20.00 LS 26.52 21.42 5. 5.50 74.50 20.00 LS 5.50 77.00 17.50 LS 5.34 5.15 6. 5.50 84.50 10.00 LS 10.50 74.50 15.00 SL 15.05 4.99 7. 8.00 82.00 10.00 SL 5.50 79.50 15.00 LS 3.96 8.44 8. 5.50 69.50 25.50 SL 5.50 69.50 25.00 SL 6.18 5.42 9. 5.50 67.50 5.50 SL 5.50 62.50 32.50 SL 2.99 7.42 10. 8.00 69.50 22.50 SL 5.50 69.50 25.00 SL 4.31 4.98 11. 5.50 74.50 20.00 LS 8.00 72.50 20.00 LS 5.11 4.19 12. 5.50 67.50 5.50 SL 20.50 67.00 12.50 SCL 6.76 6.68 13. 5.50 84.50 10.00 LS 25.50 57.00 17.50 SCL 2.32 6.24 14. 5.50 69.50 25.00 SL 10.50 79.50 10.00 LS 2.88 7.16 15. 5.50 82.00 12.50 LS 8.00 82.00 10.00 LS 2.64 6.40 5.50 74.50 2.50 LS 10.50 74.50 74.50 SL 3.13 5.83 Source: Field work and Laboratory Analysis 2017 Key; TC-Textural Class, SL- Sandy Loam, LS-Loamy Sand, SCL-Sandy Clay Loam

Table 6: Statistical Results of the Soil Physical Properties Variables Layers Mean SD Variance F -Test Sig Clay Top 6.533 1.889 3.567 0.106 NS Bottom 9.167 6.041 36.488 Sand Top 78.933 6.469 41.852 0.306 NS Bottom 71.333 7.163 51.310 Silt Top 14.533 7.150 51.124 0.069 NS Bottom 19.500 7.209 51.964 Moisture TOP 6.159 6.472 41.888 0.487 NS content BOTTOM 7.620 4.755 22.609

Source: Laboratory Analysis, 2018.

Key: SD = Standard Deviation, F-test = Level of Significance, NS = Non Significance

Physical Dimension of Gully Sites

The main gully in the study area is the Tumfure stream channel, which is a second order hierarchy that was initiated from the upstream to the downstream, and was purposively selected for this study. Though the stream extends beyond the boundary of Tumfure to an open space and finally empties into Dadinkowa dam, however, this study is only restricted to the gully site within Tumfure area. The gully has numerous first order gullies that passed within the study area. Findings from the field (ground truth measurement) revealed that the total length of the gully site is 3.1km with an average width of 15.1m and average depth of 4.5m. Also comparing it with values in Table 6, it indicates a change from 0.03km to 0.06km. This increase might be due to the nature of the soil and increase in landuse that has increased the volume and velocity of water in the main gully as a result of the combination of rainfall intensity, rapid discharge from iron sheets, increased roads density, interlocking of compound and absence of vegetal cover.The implication of this finding is that increase in depth and width of gullies has resulted in the destruction of houses, trees, roads and culverts located along the vicinity of the gully.

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria

Table 7: Physical Dimension of the Gully Sites S/N Coordinates Latitude Longitude Width (M) Depth (M) 1. 10016’34.14”N 1106’1.84”E 7.4 2.0 2. 10016’38.5”N 1106’3.64’’E 14.0 4.3 3. 10016’42.89”N 1106’5.54’’E 11.3 4.6 4. 10016’50.7”N 1106’7.63”E 14.2 3.5 5. 10016’59.8”N 1106’9.36”E 14.2 5.0 6. 10016’59.7”N 1106’10.3”E 9.0 3.7 7. 10017’9.64”N 1106’10.98”E 14.1 6.0 8. 10017’16.55”N 1106’9.5”E 25.2 4.7 9. 10017’23.75”N 1106’6.44”E 9.0 2.0 10. 10017’34.8”N 1106’37.12”E 23.2 5.0 11. 10017’41.2”N 1106’37.12”E 17.0 3.5 12. 10017’36.78”N 1105’59.86”E 20.9 4.0 13. 10017’55.82”N 1105’59.17”E 17.8 6.3 14. 10017’59.06”N 1105’58.63”E 16.0 6.4 15. 10018’2.92”N 1105’58.34”E 13.0 3.4 Mean 15.1 4.5 Source: Fieldwork, 2018

Effects of Gully Erosion in the Study Area

Field observations revealed cracked houses and falling of buildings into gullies are common features in the gully prone areas, while several others are at the risk of losing their houses and livelihood to gully erosion (Plate 1 and 2) if no holistic control measures are taken. As similar work by Ofomata (2007) reported that over 100 houses each year were destroyed by gully erosion in Auchi and AguluNanka communities in Nigeria.

Source: Fieldwork 2018

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Plate 1: Exposed foundation of a house at the verge of collapsing due to gully activities

Gully erosion in the study area has also destroyed many roads and culverts/ bridges in the study area (plates2 and 3). Different streets/roads especially untarred culverts/ bridges and foot paths were destroyed thereby increasing the cost of intra city transport in the study area. Also, several other undeveloped plots of land were destroyed and others at the verge of destruction due to lack of proper drainage channel in the area.

Source: Fieldwork 2018

Plate 2: Collapsed Culvert along the gully site

Plate 3: Cutting down of Bauchi-Gombe road by gully erosion Source: Fieldwork 2018

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria

Conclusion

The paper assessed the impact of soil on gully erosion in Tumfure. The main gully site cut across Bauchi-Gombe road and was purposively used for the assessment of gully properties using satellite images of the year 2005 and 2016; soil physical and chemical properties, and effects of gully erosion in the area. The mean particle distribution of soil texture along the gully wall shows sand 73%, silt 17% and clay 8%; sand has a significant relationship with gully advancement. The 2016 image analyzed, revealed change in the urban expansion from 0.14km2 to 4.26km2 in 2016. This implies an increase of 4.13km2 over the 12 years. The effects of gully erosion in the study area include destruction of roads, bridges; plots of land, houses trees and biodiversity. The existence and development of gully erosion in Tumfure, therefore, could be explained in terms of fragile soil/geological formations, deforestation and poor landuse practices in the area. From the findings of the paper, it is evident that the nature of soil of the area is responsible for gully initiation and development in the area. This has increased deep cutting and has taken up valuable land. These have forced people to erect buildings on floodplains, consequently increase in both magnitude and frequency of gully in response to high runoff generated.

Recommendations

The paper recommends based on the findings of the study, the following measures;

i. Proper enlightenment campaign on soil conservation measures that can help to control gully erosion in the area be carried out by the management of the Federal College of Education Technical, Gombe especially among the students and the entire academic community. ii. Effective measures of controlling gully expansion such as engineering and biological methods should be put in place by the management of the Federal College of Education Technical, Gombe. iii. Reforestation of catchment areas and eroded lands can be effective at reclaiming and controlling gully corridors in the affected areas by the management of the Federal College of Education Technical, Gombe.

References Albert, A.A., Samson, A.A., Peter, O.O. and Olufunmilayo, A. (2006). An Assessment of the Socio Economic Impacts of Soil Erosion in South-Eastern Nigeria. Shaping the Change XXIII FIG Congress Munich, Germany, October 8-13, 2006

Bouyoucos, G.H. (1951). A Recalibration of the Hydrometer for Making Mechanical Analysis of Soils. Agronomy Journal, 43, 434-438.

Danladi, A. and Ray, H.H. (2014). Socio-economic effect of gully erosion on land use in Gombe State, Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning. Vol.7(5), pp. 97-105.

Ebisemiju, F.S. (1989). Threshold of Gully Erosion in a Leterite Terrain, Guyana. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 10(20): 136-143.

Hilborn D. and Stone, R.P., (2000) Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs Factsheet.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Hudson, N.W. (1981). Soil conservation, Cornell University Press, New York. Giordano, A., Bonfils, P., & Briggs, D. J. (1991). Menezes de Sequeira E., RoqueroD.L.C. Yassoglou A. The methodological approach to soil erosion and important land resources evaluation of the European community. Soil Technology (4), 65-77.

Igwe, C. A. (1999). Land use and soil conservation strategies for potentially highly erodible soils ofcentral-eastern Nigeria. Land Degradation Development [10], 425-434.

Igwe, C.A. (1994). The applicability of SLEMSA and USLE erosion models on soils of Southeastern Nigeria. PhD Thesis, University of Nigeria, Nsukka.

Igwe, C. A. Akamigbo, F. O. R. and Mbagwu, J. S. C. (1995). The use of some soil aggregate indices to assess potential soil loss in soils of Southeastern Nigeria. International Agro physics (9), 95-100.

Igwe, C.A. (2012). Gully Erosion in Southeastern Nigeria: Role of Soil Properties and Environmental Factor in the indo-gangetic alluvial plains using IRS-ID LISS-III data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 24(22), 4347-4355. Iorkua, S.A (2006) A study of inter-relationship among gully elements in North bank Makurdi. In Aonogo, L and Daniel, S. O (eds) Jurnal of Geography and Development. pp 32- 49, Benue State University publisher Jeje, L. K., &Agu, A. N. (1990). Run-off from Bounded Plots in Alakowe in South Western Nigeria. Applied Geography,10,63-74.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0143- 6228(90)90005-A. Jimoh, H. (1997) Individual Rainfall events and EedimentGenereation on Different Surfaces in Ilorin. A Unpublished PhD Thesis, University of Ilorin, Nigeria. Jimoh, H.I., (2001) Erosion Studies in Nigeria City: A Methodological Approach. The Environment 21:97- 101. Lal, R. (1976a). Soil erosion on alfisols in Western Nigeria. I. Effects of slope, crop rotation and residue management. Geoderma, 16, 363-373. Lal, R. (1983). Soil erosion in the humid tropics with particular reference to agricultural Land development and soil management. Proceedings of the Hamburg Symposium.IAHS Publication 140, August, 221-239. Mallam I, Iguisi E.O., and Tasi’u. Y.R (2016) An Assessment of Gully Erosion in Kano Metropolis, Nigeria. Global Advanced Research Journal of Agricultural Science. Vol. 5(1) pp. 014-027 Mbaya, L A. Ayuba, H.K. and Abdullahi, J. (2012). An Assessment of Gully Erosion in Gombe Town, Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Geology; Mbaya, L. A (2012). Study of interelatioships among Gully Variables in Gombe town, GombeState Nigeria.Woodpecker J Georgr. And regional planning 1(1):001-006 Ofomata, G. E. K. (1975). Soil erosion. Nigeria in maps, Eastern States, Ethiope Publishing House, Benin City Nigeria. Ofomata, G.E.K. (1985). Soil erosion. Southeastern Nigeria: the view of a geomorphologist, Inaugural lecture series University of Nigeria Nsukka.

Analysis of the Impact of Soil on Gully Erosion in Tumfure, Gombe Urban, Gombe State, Nigeria

Ofomata, G.E.K. (2007). ‘‘Erosion in the forest zone of Nigeria”. A Paper Presented at the 27th Annual Conference of Geographical Association of Nigeria, University of Nigeria, Nssuka. Ologe, K. O. (1986). Soil erosion characteristics, processes and extent in the Nigerian savanna. InV. O. Sagua, E.E. Enabor, G. E. K. Ofomata, K. O. Ologe, and L. Oyebande (eds) Ecological Disasters in Nigeria: Soil erosion, 26-49. Olori, T. (2006): Villagers flee landslides in http://www.onlinenigeria.com/links/adv.asp?blurb= 68. OMAFRA Staff (2003). ‘‘Soil Erosion, Causes and Effects”. Ridge Town and College of Agricultural Technology, Ontario Institute of pedology. http://www.search.gov.on.ca.8002/compass?view- template=simplr Orazulike, D.M. (1987). Hazardous Earth Processes in Parts of Bauchi State, Nigeria: their causes and Environmental implications, Natural Hazard 1,155-160. Orazulike, D. M. (1992). A Study of Gully Phenomenon in Gombe Town, Bauchi State: Bedrock Geology and Environmental Implications, 200-201.KluwerAcademic Publisher, Netherlands. Renard, K. G., Foster, G. R., Weesies, G. A., Mc Cool, D. K., & Yoder, D. C. (1997). Predicting Soil Erosion by Water: A Guide to Conservation Planning with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Handbook,703, 384pp.

Stocking, M.A.A. (1987). Methodology for erosion hazard mapping of the SADCC region. Paper presented at the workshop on erosion hazard mapping, Lusaka, Zambia, April. Ziebel, D. and Leongatha, P.R. (1999). Gully Erosion Control. http://www.dpi.vic.au/nreinf/Chil ddocs 17/2/2009

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover on Vegetation Cover in Southern Gombe (1986-2017), Gombe, Nigeria

*G. O. Abu1, A.L. Tukur2, A.A. Zemba2andR. D. Abu3 1Department of Geography, Gombe State University, Gombe State, Nigeria 2Department of Geography, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola 3Department of Geography, Federal University, Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria

Abstract The dynamics of vegetation is attributed not only to natural impacts but anthropogenic activities as well, and as such, brings to bear the urgent need for the use of modern techniques that can easily provide accurate data for efficient planning preference to the continual use of the conventional type. In view of this, this study monitored the land use land cover changes of southern Gombe between 1986 and 2017 using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The study aimed at examining the changes on the vegetation cover. The methods adopted for this research involves the use of remotely sensed data from Landsat TM and Landsat ETM. Ground truthing was also carried out to corroborate the data from the satellite images. Secondary data from the literature relevant to the study were also obtained. The results showed that the vegetation class decreased (-150.83, -34.66 and -20.74) from 1986 to 1996, 1996 to 2006 and 2006 to 2017 while settlements increased (0.24, 0.72 and 9.57) from 1986 to 1996, 1996 to 2006 and 2006 to 2017in area coverage. Southern Gombe is expanding and leading to an inverse spill-over effect on the vegetation resources of the area. It is recommended that programs should be initiated that would promote the farming of forest trees and their products (fruits, wood, gums) around the homes to avoid cutting down of trees in the forest.

Keywords: Geographic information system (GIS), Remote sensing, Southern Gombe,Sustainable development, Urban growth and Vegetation resources. Introduction Remotely sensed data has become a spectacularly useful tool for mapping natural resources, including vegetation and land use/cover changes over geographical areas by overcoming many limitations of traditional surveying techniques to obtain a continuous and extensive inventory of ecosystems (Rogan and Chen, 2004; Gillanders, Coops, Wulder, Gergel and Nelson, 2008). With the use of remote sensing, it is possible to map and monitor the spatial extent of various factors influencing and contributing to environmental degradation, such as changes in vegetation cover, impervious surface, land use type, and human activities. Remote sensing is a cost effective tool for monitoring land use/cover changes that provides consistent and repetitive measurements of territorial processes (Wessels, Prince, Frost and Van Zyl, 2004). Land cover change is driven by both natural processes, climate change inclusive and most importantly human actions. There has been a worldwide increasing awareness and studies on land use and land cover change analysis in the last decades. The importance of such studies to sustainable development plan has been universally noted.

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover on Vegetation Cover in Southern Gombe (1986-2017), Gombe, Nigeria

Materials and Methods Description of Study Area The study area is Southern part of Gombe State located between latitude 9°30’N to 11030’N and longitude 10050’E to 11°40’E (Fig. 1). It covers four (4) out of the eleven (11) Local Government Areas of Gombe State which includes Balanga, Billiri, Kaltungo, and Shongom with a total land area of about 4,193.16km2 out of 18,965km2.

Fig.1: Location of the Study Area

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

The climate over Gombe is described as tropical continental climate of the Aw type. Temperature is high all year round with an average mean value of 300C. The highest temperatures of about 37oCare recorded during the dry heat wave months of March and May. During the rainy season, the temperature drops considerably due to dense cloud cover between July and August as well as during the harmattan period of November to February (Balzerek, Werner, Jurgen, Klaus-martin and Markus,2003). Rainfall is strongly seasonal due to the oscillation of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) which controls the Tropical Maritime and the Tropical Continental air masses of contrasting air moisture and relative humidity over the study area. The topography of the study area is mainly mountainous, undulating and hilly to the southeast and flat open plains in the central. The plains generally separate the river basins from the upland areas. The Billiri LGA has most of its land area in the plains. The plains are generally utilized for agricultural, residential and industrial purposes. The highlands comprised of high mountain ranges and hills with altitudes above 590m above sea level. The nature of the topography gives rise to radial drainage pattern, that is, a pattern where the rivers flow to different directions away from a hill, highland or mountains. The soils of Gombe are shallow impoverished sandy loams with iron concretion in some areas. The soils are developed based on the basement complex which supports agricultural practices. Ferruginous tropical soils which are highly weathered also developed on the sandy parent materials in the study area (Aitchison, Bawden, Carroll, Glover, Klinkenberg, DeLeeuw and Tuley, 1972). The vegetation in the study area is diverse as it reflects the pattern of the climate and physiography of the area. The existing vegetation of the area is described as Sudan savannah and the Mountainous vegetation in some part of the study area. It is characterized by high shrubs with scattered trees, open grass savannah which grows up to 3-5 feet and fringing forest especially in the river valleys. Procedure for Data Collection and Data Analysis Characterization of land use/ land cover changes within Southern Gombe was carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. This is possible through a technique known as change detection. Change detection simply is classifying (vegetation, bare surfaces/farmlands, rocky outcrop, wetlands and settlements classes) multispectral images of different times and comparing to discern what has changed over a period. The imageries were classified using the maximum likelihood classifier of the supervised classification. The area statistics of the land use/land cover classes of the periods under study were generated from the analyzed imageries using change detection algorithm. In order to determine if the change in the values of the vegetation cover classes between 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2017 are significant, the following hypotheses was tested: There is no significant difference in the vegetation change patterns from 1986 to 2017.

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover on Vegetation Cover in Southern Gombe (1986-2017), Gombe, Nigeria

Table 1: Land Use/Land Cover Classification Scheme Adopted for this Study Land Cover Classes Description Vegetation Area covered by natural composition of trees, orchards, plantation as well as areas with shrubby plants, low tree height, bushes and grasses that provide pastures for livestock. Settlements Developed lands such as residential, commercial and constructions of any kind such as roads, infrastructure etc. Bare Exposed soil devoid of vegetal cover, that is, open spaces as well as all surfaces/Farmlands forms of agricultural land uses. Wetlands This includes all forms of water bodies found in the study area (River, streams, pond, dam, lakes etc) Rocky outcrop The study has part of its extremes covered by ranges of rocks of which some are been used for terrace farming. Source: Field Work, 2016 To guide the focus of the study, hypothesis was employed which stated as follows: Ho: there is no significant difference in the land use land cover changes in the study are within the period under investigation (1986 to 2017). The hypothesis was verified using the ANOVA analysis. The two way-ANOVA (F-Ratio) was used to test if the changes in vegetation pattern were significantly different between the years studied. The 95% confidence level corresponding to an alpha value of 0.05 was used in accepting or rejecting the hypothesis. Results and Discussion The study area located in Southern Gombe displays a mosaic of different landuse and landcover types which include human settlements, vegetation, rock outcrop, bare surfaces/ farmlands and wetlands. Table 2 represents the static area of land use/land cover classes for each year of 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2017, all of whichhave undergone changes over the years. Figures 1, 2, 3 and 4 show the spatial distribution of the land use / land cover of the study area.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Table 2: Land use Land Cover Change LULC Classes 1986 1996 2006 2017 Rate of change Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area 1986/1996 1996/2006 2006/2017

(km2) (%) (km2) (%) (km2) (%) (km2) (%) (%) (%) (%) Settlement 21.06 0.50 23.45 0.56 30.68 0.73 135.92 3.24 0.24 0.72 9.57 Vegetation 2826.80 67.41 1318.55 31.44 971.96 23.18 743.80 17.74 -150.83 -34.66 -20.74 Rock outcrop 628.18 14.98 1004.25 23.94 300.21 7.16 1172.75 27.97 37.61 -70.40 79.32 Bare 695.36 16.58 1701.39 40.58 2860.34 68.21 2132.60 50.86 100.60 115.90 -66.16 surfaces/farmlands Wetlands 21.76 0.52 145.52 3.47 29.95 0.71 8.09 0.19 12.38 -11.56 -1.99 Total 4193.16 100 4193.16 100 4193.16 100 4193.16 100

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover on Vegetation Cover in Southern Gombe (1986-2017), Gombe, Nigeria

Table 2 shows the entire study area covering 4193.16km. In 1986, vegetation constituted the most extensive land use / land cover occupying 2826.80km2 (67.41%) and bare surfaces/farmland, rock outcrop, wetland and settlements occupied 695.36km2 (16.58%), 628.18km2 (14.98%), 21.76km2 (0.52%), and 21.06km2 (0.50%) respectively of the study area. However, in 1996, bare surfaces/farmlands expanded quite rapidly, increasing to 1701.39km2 (40.58%) of the study area. The rock outcrop, wetlands and settlements increased to 1004.25km2 (23.94%), 145.52km2 (3.47%) and 23.45km2 (0.56%) respectively. During the same period, vegetation decreased to 1318.55km2 (31.44%). In 2006, settlement and bare surfaces/farmland increased to 30.68km2 (0.73%) and 2860.34km2 (68.21%) respectively. On the other hand, vegetation, rock outcrop and wetlands declined in areas to 971.96km2 (23.18%), 300.21km2 (7.16%) and 29.95km2 (0.71%) respectively. By 2017, settlement, rock outcrop and bare surfaces/farmland had rapidly increased to 135.92km2 (3.24%), 1172.75km2 (27.97%) and 2132.60km2 (50.86%) respectively, while vegetation and wetland declined to 743.80km2 (17.74%) and 8.09km2 (0.19%). The pattern of land use / land cover change within the period under consideration indicated that between 1986 and 2017, settlements, bare surfaces/farmland and rock outcrop shows an increase except in 2006 where there was a decrease in the area expanse of rock outcrop. Within the period, vegetation and wetlands shows a general reduction in their area coverage. The unbroken increase in settlement resulted from the rapid physical development experienced in the study area. The increase in rock outcrop in 1986 and 1996 resulted from the deforestation and logging around rocks exposing parts that were not visible in earlier years. In 2006, rock outcrop recorded progressive decrease and the observed decrease are linked to increasing quarrying activities, massive construction and built environment on top of some of the rocks. The observed increase in rock outcrop in 2017 could have resulted from increases in deforestation that further exposed areas that were initially covered by vegetation. The observed increases in farmland resulted from increasing population density and increasing demand for food and agricultural commodities. The reduction observed in the surrounding vegetation probably resulted from urban expansion and construction activities and also the increasing tempo of logging activities. Wetland is used to refer to all water bodies and in 1986 when the Balanga dam was completed, its extent was 21.76 km2. In 1996, it recorded an increase of 145.52 km2. This increase could probably be as a result of the emergence of minor water bodies and increases in the tributaries density that feed the dam and the several gullies and channel that conduct surface and base flow. The decrease noticeable in 2006 and 2017 could be attributable to fluctuation occasioned by landuse /land cover changes over the catchment which increases the inflow of sediments into dam and other channels thereby reducing their capacities.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Fig.1: Classified LULC Map of 1986 Fig. 2: Classified LULC Map of 1996

Fig. 3: Classified LULC Map of 2006 Fig. 4: Classified LULC Map of 2017 The Annual Change Rate The rates of land use/ land cover changes from 1986 to 2017 (Table 2) revealed that rates of land use changes for the different land use classes over the periods were of different magnitude. The vegetation class has shown a decrease (-150.83, -34.66 and -20.74) from 1986 to 1996, 1996 to 2006 and 2006 to 2017, while settlements had increased area coverage (0.24, 0.72 and 9.57) from 1986 to 1996, 1996 to 2006 and 2006 to 2017 respectively. The annual rate of change of the remaining land use land cover classes fluctuated between the study periods. Landuse/Landcover Changes between 1986 and 2017 The identified landuse/landcover classes in Southern Gombe study area was subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) at 0.05 level of significance to statistically confirm the significant difference in the magnitude (value) of the land use/land cover classes between 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2017.Table 3 shows the details.

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover on Vegetation Cover in Southern Gombe (1986-2017), Gombe, Nigeria

Table 3 Analysis of variance for level of significance for land use/land cover classes Source of Sum of Square Degree of Mean of F-ratio F- critical variation Freedom Square calculated (Fcal) (Ftab) Between class 2316.55 3 772.18 0.000708 3.49 years Within class 13081265 12 1090105 years Total 13083581 15

Table 3 shows the result of the analysis of variance and Fcal is 0.000708 while Ftab is 3.49 at 95% (0.05%) level of confidence and 15 degree of freedom. Since Fcal is less than Ftab (0.000708< 3.49), we do not reject Ho. Hence we accept the null hypothesis that stated that there is no significant difference in the magnitude (value) of land use/land cover classes between the years under study. Although spatial variations exist in some of the classes and the base year, there is no statistical proof to make a generalized statement. Conclusion It is clear from the analysis in the preceding section that the vegetation cover of Southern Gombe area has undergone considerable changes over the period under investigation. While the settlements and bare surfaces have expanded significantly during the thirty years period under study, the vegetation and wetlands has declined. Population increase and development has led to the expansion of houses and increased farmlands for agricultural purposes and thus contributed to the threat and disturbances on the vegetation. Several factors have been modifying the original form of land cover in the study area, these include human activities such as agricultural purposes and spread of settlements. The study reveals that various human activities are behindthis change and that these changes have led to the deterioration of the vegetal cover but on a positive side has indirectly contributes to household food security through income generation and employment. Recommendation It is recommended that alternative source of energy should be provided to the masses so that less tension may deter people from cutting trees as source of energy. Likewise, Government should initiate programs that promote the farming of forest trees and their products (fruits, wood, gums) around the homes to avoid cutting down of trees in the forest. Afforestation should be encouraged to reduce and address areas that are prone to erosion. Also conservation of the habitat should be enforced to safe wildlife from extinction.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

References Aitchison, P.J., Bawden, M.G., Carroll, D.M., Glover, P.E., Klinkenberg, K. and DeLeeuw, P.N and Tuley, P. (1972). The Land Resources of North East Nigeria: The Environment, Vol.1. Land Resources Division, Tolworth Tower Surbiton, Surrey, England.

Balzerek, H, Werner, F., Jürgen, H, Klaus-martin, M. and Markus, R. (2003). Man Made Flood Disaster in the Savanna Town of Gombe/NE Nigeria. Erdkunde, 57(2), 94-109.

Gillanders, S.N., Coops, N. C., Wulder, M.A., Gergel, S.E. and Nelson, T. (2008). Multitemporal remote sensing of landscape dynamics and pattern change: describing natural and anthropogenic trends. Progress in Physical Geography, 32 (5), 503–528. Rogan, J. and Chen, D. (2004). Remote sensing technology for land cover and land use mapping and monitoring. Progress in Planning, 61(4), 301–325. Wessels, K. J., Prince, S.D., Frost, P.E., and Van Zyl, D. (2004). Assessing the effects of human induced land degradation in the former homelands of northern South Africa with a 1km AVHRR NDVI time-series. Remote Sensing of Environment, 91, 47-67.

An Assessment of the Impact of Domestic and External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuation in Nigeria

Ali Salisu1 and Mustapha Hussain2 1Department of Economics, Bayero University Kano, Kano State, Nigeria. [email protected] 2School of preliminary Studies Sule Lamido University Kafin Hausa, Jigawa State

Abstract

This paper aim to assess the impact of domestic and external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuation in Nigeria, covering 1985-2016, External and domestic macroeconomics were used as variables, facto-augmented VAR is utilized as methodology. Finding of the study showed that, The terms of trade shock on domestic variables showed that consumption, inflation rate, investment and broad money supply are statistically significant throughout the quarter and the real gross domestic product, narrow money supply, reserve money, labor force and unemployment are not statistically significant throughout the period, The study also examined the effect of monetary policy shock on exogenous variables and the result shows that monetary policy shock really have no significant effect on most essential external variables. The study therefore advocates that Nigeria should take practical steps to ameliorate the adverse effect of external shocks by carefully selecting and engaging policy thrust that suit the economic problems and environments. Furthermore, there is need for a major policy design to encourage value addition of the nation’s export commodities

Keywords: Macroeconomics, Shocks, Domestic shocks, FVAR

Introduction

The current economic recession in Nigeria draw some economist attention to the relative contribution of domestic and external shocks in driving Nigeria’s business cycle fluctuation. One of the major concern of modern macroeconomics is the need to understand the causes of macroeconomic fluctuations for policy analysis and forecasting as well as the overall implications for growth and welfare. Economic crisis comes in a cycle. A recession is an economic crisis in the in a form of business cycle contraction, which results in a general slowdown of economic activities in two or more quarters (6months and above). As a result, macroeconomic indicators get worse showing that if there is no appropriate policy response, the economy may slip further into a depression. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment and consumption spending, savings rate, imports and exports, capacity utilization, household income, trade, capital flows, business profits and inflation decline, while indebtedness, illiquidity, bankruptcies and the unemployment rates rise. In general, Less Developed Countries (LDCs) have experienced much more periods of frequent fluctuations (and even longer periods of downturns than upturns) as indicated by the GDP growth relative to other developed countries.

Nigerian is an oil producing country and depends heavily on proceeds from the sales of crude oil to generate foreign earnings to finance her import. In addition, the country also depends heavily on importation of capital and consumable goods from developed and emerging economies to cater for industrial and household needs. As such, the economic fortune of the country is

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 inextricably tied to global economic activities thus making the country vulnerable to external shocks (Lukman, 2016).

External shocks on small-open economies can lead to booms and bursts in employment, output, balance of payment crises and exchange rate instability (Gafar, 1996). Based on this, effective management of domestic and external shocks can be considered as one of the key issues in macroeconomic management, especially in developing countries Nigeria inclusive.

Statement of Research Problem

A number of interrelated factors contributed to the current economic recession in Nigeria including poor macroeconomic policy, increases in the price of primary commodities (inflation), high interest rates, poor tax system and declining in oil revenue due to fall in oil price. Unfortunately, the economic recession in the country affected numerous macroeconomic variables including inflation and unemployment. The rise in inflation and unemployment affected the low- income household more than others, as it has reduced their purchasing power and social welfare (Babatunde and Olufemi, 2014)

The need to understand and distinguish short-run (fluctuations) and long-run (growth) determinants of the macro-economy has been emphasized in the literature (Agenor, Mc Dermort and Prasad, 2000 and Lane, 2002). Short-run analysis provides the basis for regulating the economy while long-run analysis is concerned with longer term planning purposes. While the latter is influenced by real shocks, the former is determined by nominal shocks. This study is premised on identifying the domestic and external shocks that drive business cycle fluctuations in Nigeria and further classified the shocks into real shocks and nominal shocks.

The deep crises that have pervaded the Nigerian economy since early 1970s posed considerable challenges to policy makers and economists. At each turn of events efforts are made to design and implement appropriate policy response. Nigeria, no doubt, has witnessed periods of boom and also recessions. In1970s, the economy was expanding due to large inflow of crude oil income and by the period 1981-1985, at the wake of the falling oil revenue, the economy declined, precipitating a rapid deterioration of the living standard of Nigerians. Iwayemi (1995:5) points out that “the cycle of oil price booms and precipitous decline and the associated transfer problem in terms of the net resource outflow associated with debt repayments, triggered profound changes unparallel in the history of the economy.”

In response to these various shocks, authorities in Nigeria adopted various policy choices usually in the form of economic policy measures including Stabilization Policy, 1981-1983, Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), 1986-1992; Medium Term Economic Strategy, 1993- 1998 and the Economic Reforms (1999 – 2019 is the democratic era). A major fact in macroeconomic analysis of developing economies like Nigeria, is that they are small-open economies in the sense that they cannot influence world prices and output. Domestic macroeconomic policies are thus buffeted by external shocks which eventually distort the path of the economy. In lieu of that, the broad objective of this study is to determine the impact of domestic and external shocks on economic fluctuations in Nigeria (1985 - 2016).

An Assessment of the Impact of Domestic and External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuation in Nigeria

Macroeconomic shocks: The Nigerian Experience

The deep crises that have pervaded the Nigerian economy since early 1970s posed considerable challenges to policy makers and economists. At each turn of events, efforts are made to design and implement appropriate policy responses. The subsequent periods were not too different as the consequences of the preceding period dragged into the following period. Macroeconomic indicators point to the grave economic situations. In particular, there were sharp fluctuations in the GDP, remarkable fluctuations in inflation rates, unemployment rate, growing size and composition of government expenditure as well as slow growth in domestic production. Others are chronic fiscal deficit, decline in traditional agricultural output, rural-urban drift, etc.

Among these shocks are: crude oil price shock resulting in economic boom of the early 1970s; low crude oil demand shock that led to world recession following the 1979 increases in oil prices; foreign debt shock creating financial short falls in the execution of socio-economic developmental programmes; stochastic shocks resulting from inappropriate policy response to observed economic trends in terms of timing, direction and magnitude; disequilibrium between rural and urban sectors prompting extensive rural-urban drift; terms of trade shocks resulting from currency over- valuation; changes in economic structure; and institutional shocks engendered by transition from state controlled economy to market-based economy (CBN 2015)

Review of empirical literature

One of the consequences of recent global financial crisis is the growing number of studies on transmission of business cycle, especially from developed countries such as the US, European Union, Japan, China, India, to other countries majorly the developing ones. Starting with the work of Babatunde and Olufemi (2014), who analysed the effects of monetary policy shocks using changes in various monetary policy instruments on exchange rate volatility in Nigeria using classical ordinary least square. The authors found out that, both real and nominal exchange rates in Nigeria have been unstable during the period under review. Lukman (2016) investigates the macroeconomic response of the Nigerian economy to external shocks by employing global vector autoregression (GVAR). The author found out that, oil price shocks have direct effect on real gross domestic product and exchange rate in Nigeria but variables like inflation and short-term interest rate do not show immediate response to the shocks.

Bayoumi and Swiston (2009) in their study using vector autoregressions of real growth estimated growth spillovers between the US, the Euro area, Japan and an aggregate of smaller countries proxying for global shocks. They found out that the US and global shocks generate significant spillovers in developing countries, but those from the Euro area and Japan are small comparing to the US. Similarly, study by Vamvakidis and Arora (2010) examined the growth spillover of China’s economy in recent time by employing vector autoregressions approach and they concluded that spillover effects of China’s growth have increased in recent decades and long- term spillover effects are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia and this has serious implication for a developing country like Nigeria that have serious trade relations with China. Array of similar studies by Samake and Yang (2011), Ding and Masha (2012) and Poirson and Weber (2011) came to similar conclusion on growth spillover.

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

There has been a very rich stock of empirical literature on business cycle studies since the path breaking paper of Kydland and Prescott (1982). That work gave credence to Real Business Cycle (RBC) models which have been able to explain, to a large extent, the behavior of actual economies. These models have proved their ability to “account for regularities in the data”. In what follows, we take a spatial survey of some of these works touching on the advanced economies, the Latin America’s and Asia. We close the section with a review of the situation in Africa and, in particular, Nigeria. This chapter, in particular, ends with a table showing empirical evidences of business cycle research.

In another study for the US economy, Mountford and Uhlig (2002) proposed and used an identification scheme of sign restrictions on the impulse responses. They found that government spending shocks crowd out both residential and non-residential investments but leave consumption unaffected. Further, the study reveals that a cut in deficit spending stimulates the economy for the first four quarters but has low median multiplier of 0.5, and that a positive shock to tax generates a contractionary effect on output, consumption and investment. Conclusively, the authors argued that the best fiscal policy for stimulating aggregate economic activities tends to be a deficit- financed tax cut. A similar conclusion was drawn in their subsequent study (Mountford and Uhlig, 2005). In yet another study for the US, Fu, Taylor and Yucel (2003) assess the relationship between fiscal policy and US growth under a VAR methodology. In contrast to other studies for the US, the authors found that an increase in government size (public spending) leads to slower economic growth, regardless of how the expenditure was financed. Their results differ sharply with previous evidence for the US obtained by Edelberg, Eichenbaum and Fisher (1999) under a different identification scheme. Specifically, the authors study the response of the US economy to specific episodes of military build-ups and conclude that there is a significant and positive short-run effect on output. In addition, Biau and Girard (2005) use a five-variable VAR (government direct spending, net revenue, GDP, interest rate and the price level) to examine the effects of fiscal policy shocks in France. They found a positive reaction of private consumption while the effects on private investment was also found to be positive but only in the first year. Using a Bayesian SVAR and a recursive identification scheme, Afonso and Sousa (2009) analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks for the US, UK, Germany and Italy. Their results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on output, depreciates real exchange rate, but varied impact on housing prices. Meanwhile, Mancellari (2011) attempts an estimation of the effect of fiscal policy on output, prices and interest rates in Albania using structural VAR model. Utilizing data for the period 1998:1- 2009:4 and following the methodology of Blanchard and Perotti (2002), the author found that a tax cut has the highest cumulative multiplier effect on output and up to 1.65 after five quarters. In a relatively recent study, Parkyn and Vehbi (2013) examine the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in New Zealand using a five-variable SVAR model for the period 1983:1-2010:2. Their results indicate that government expenditure shocks have a modest effect on output in the short term, but lowers it in the medium to long-term. While they found a positive but limited impact on inflation following a fiscal expansion, the sign of the effects of tax policy changes were less clear cut. A clear insight from the above review is that there is no unique conclusion on the effect of fiscal policy on the aggregate economy. The results differ from one country to another with various methodological approaches adopted and diverse period.

100

An Assessment of the Impact of Domestic and External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuation in Nigeria

Theoretical Framework

Business Cycle Theories

There are several approaches to reviewing business cycle theories. However, they share some common properties. One of this is the fact that there is always a driving force behind economic fluctuations. The latter may be some kinds of shocks, frictions, or disturbances that constitute the original cause of the cycle. In addition, most theories build on propagation mechanism that amplifies and translate small short-lived shocks into large, persistent economic fluctuations.

In this study, we review business cycle theories from certain basic propositions constituted by the schools of thought. These schools of thoughts include the Monetarists and the New Classical School (NCS), the other mainstream and the Keynesian School of thought (KS) and its variants notably the New Keynesian School (NKS).

Methodology

Type and sources of data

The type of data specified for this research work was secondary in nature, as time series spanning 1985–2016 was employed for the analysis. Data was collected from statistical publication of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistic (NBS), journals, annual report and other relevant publication.

Model specification

To meet with the core objective of this study, we formulate an open economy FAVAR model with time-varying coefficients that allows us to efficiently model the impact of large set of Nigeria and external variables in driving business cycle fluctuation. FAVAR is useful for several advantages like low serial correlation in residuals, allow large number of variables, summarizing time series facts, simplify complex relationship among variables, policy analysis, structural implications and helpful for describing and forecasting dynamic behavior of economic time series. The start point is the following restricted VAR model:

∗ ∗ 퐹푡 훽₁₁(퐿) 0 0 퐹푡 푁푖푔 훽₂₁(퐿) 훽₂₂(퐿) 훽₂₃(퐿) 푁푖푔 퐹푡 = 퐹푡−1 +휇푡 ……………(1) 푅푡 훽₃₁(퐿) 훽₃₂(퐿) 훽₃₃(퐿)푅푡−1

The VAR in equation (1) consists of two blocks, one for the Nigeria and other for the rest of the world, which is ordered first. The information about the Nigeria and the rest of the world is ∗ 푵풊품 summarized by the unobserved factors, Ft = [푭풕푭풕 ]ʹ, where * denotes the foreign economies and Nig denotes the domestic economy. The Nig short-term interest rate, Rt,is included to account for domestic monetary policy. The zero restrictions in equation (1) reflect our assumption that

101

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 being a small open economy, the Nigeria is unable to influence the rest of the world. These, together with the unobserved common components; form the dynamic system that evolves according to the above transition equation. Where 휷(푳) is a conformable lag polynomial of finite ½ order p, and 흁풕=Ω풕 풆풕with the structural disturbances 풆풕~N (0, 1) and Ω푡= 퐴0,푡(퐴0,푡)ʹ is the stochastic covariance of the reduced form shocks. The structure of 훽(퐿) reflects the small open economy assumption such that the domestic factors do not impact on world factors, but not vice versa.

∗ 풀∗ 휫∗ 푹∗ 풀∗ There are three foreign factors 푭풕 = 푭풕 , 푭풕 ,and 푭풕 where 푭풕 is a foreign real activity 휫∗ 푹∗ 푵풊품 factor, 푭풕 is a foreign inflation factor, 푭풕 is a foreign interest rate factor. 푭풕 denote k= 4 factors for the Nigeria. The seven factors together summarize the variation in an underlying panel data set of external and domestic (Nigeria) variables. They are linked to panel data set due to following equation.

Y∗ 푌∗ 푌∗ Xt 훬푡 0 0 0 0 퐹푡 Π∗ 훱∗ 훱∗ Xt = 0 훬푡 0 0 0 퐹푡 + 푉푡 …… (2) R∗ 푅∗ 푅∗ Xt 0 0 훬푡 0 0 퐹푡 XNig 0 0 0 푁푖푔 푅 퐹푁푖푔 t 훬푡 훬푡 푡 Rt 0 0 0 0 1 푅푡

퐘∗ 횷∗ 퐑∗ Where 퐗퐭 denotes data on foreign real activity, 퐗퐭 denotes data on foreign inflation, denotes 퐗퐭 퐍퐢퐠 data on foreign interest rates and 퐗퐭 denotes a panel data set for the Nigeria that includes 풀∗ 휫∗ 푹∗ indicators on real activity, inflation, money supply, asset prices etc. 휦풕 , 휦풕 ,and 휦풕 are the factor 푵풊품 loadings on foreign real activity data, foreign inflation data and foreign interest rate data. 휦풕 is 푵푵풊품 kmatrix of factor loadings that link the kdomestic unobserved factors to Nigeria data and 푹 푵풊품 휦풕 ,푵 x 1 captures the contemporaneous relationship between some of the ‘fast-moving’ Nigeria variables and the short-term interest rate.

We assume two sources of time-variation in equations (1) and (2). Firstly, we allow the VAR covariance matrix Var(휐푡) ≡ Ω푡to evolve over time as a random walk. Secondly, following 풀∗ 휫∗ 푹∗ 푵풊품 푹 Del Negro and Otrok (2008), the factor loadings 휦풕 , 휦풕 , 휦풕 , 휦풕 and휦풕 are also assumed to evolve over time as random walks. This assumed structure is an efficient way of introducing time- varying dynamics within our model. In particular, the time-varying factor loadings allow the 퐘∗ 횷∗ 퐑∗ 퐍퐢퐠 relationship between the external variables (퐗퐭 ,퐗퐭 ,and퐗퐭 )and domestic variables 퐗퐭 to be 푵풊품 time-varying. This can easily be seen by substituting the equation for 푭풕 from (1) to the equation 퐍퐢퐠 for 퐗퐭 in (2). This gives:

102

An Assessment of the Impact of Domestic and External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuation in Nigeria

Nig 푁푖푔 ∗ 푁푖푔 푅 Nig Xt = 훬푡 [훽₂₁(퐿)퐹푡−1 + 훽₂₂(퐿)퐹푡−1 + 훽₂₃(퐿)푅푡−1+푈푡] + 훬푡 Rt + υt where the product of 푵풊품 휦풕 휷₂₁(푳)is time varying. Similarly, allowing Ω풕to be time varying implies time varying contemporaneous relationship between external and domestic variables.

Equations (1) and (2) capture the time-varying dynamic relationship between macroeconomic 풀∗ 휫∗ 푹∗ conditions in the rest of the world (푭풕 , 푭풕 ,and 푭풕 ) and the Nigeria economy (as summarised 푵풊품 by 푭풕 ) in driving macroeconomic fluctuation in Nigeria. By using the VAR in equation (1) it is 푵풊품 ∗ possible to estimate the impulse response of 푭풕 to an innovation in푭풕: Moreover, by using 푵풊품 equation (2), it is possible to recover the response of any of the variables in the Nigeria 푿풕 to this external shock.

Techniques of estimation

The model in equations (1) to (2) is estimated using Bayesian methods described in Kim and Nelson (1998), Primiceri (2005) and Del Negro and Otrok (2008) to approximate the posterior distribution. To investigate the time-series property in order to avoid spurious regression problem, an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is conducted to test for the order or integration of all series. The ADF test is based on the Null Hypothesis that a unit root exists in the autoregressive representation of the time series. After conducting the test for stationarity and identifying the time series property of the series, A model is constructed to test whether the variables are co-integrated. If the variables are found to be co-integrated, the analysis would continue with VECM (Vector Error Correction Model), if otherwise, it would use FAVAR (Factor-augmented Vector Autoregressive Model). Finally, after all these test have been carried out, the IRF (Impulse Response Function) will be employed to capture the transmission of shocks to the economy.

Variables and Measurement of Data

Quarterly data from 1985 Q1 to 2016 Q4 were used. The data set spans 20 variables, which comprises both domestic and foreign variable. The domestic (Nigeria) variables used in this study are as defined below: RGDP: Real Gross Domestic Product PCON: Total Private Consumption RM: Reserve Money RM1: Narrow Money Supply RM2: Broad Money Supply RUEM: Rate of Unemployment LAF: Labour Force INV: Investment INFR: Inflation Rate While the foreign/external variables used in this study includes;

103

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

CP: Commodity Price. Five (5) commodity prices are selected which includes (1) Agricultural Material Price Indices namely; Tuber, Cotton, wool, rubber, and hides price; (2) Commodity Price Indices – vegetable oil, meat, seafood, sugar, bananas, and oranges price; (3) Commodity Fuel (Energy) – crude oil (petroleum), natural gas, and coal price; (4) Beverage Price Indices – coffee, Tea, and Cocoa; (5) Metal Price- copper, aluminum, iron ore, tin, nickel, zinc, lead and uranium.

RTIM: Total Import

RTEX: Total Export

TOT: Terms of Trade

NEERI: Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Indices

NFA: Net Foreign Assets

SFE: Supply of Foreign Exchange

COP: Crude Oil Price.

WINR: World Interest Rate

WGDP: World GDP

WINF: World Inflation Rate.

Transmission Channels of Shocks on RGDP

104

An Assessment of the Impact of Domestic and External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuation in Nigeria

Fig. 1: Transmission Channels of Shocks on RGDP

In the literature, there are three channels of transmission of shocks namely; Trading Channel, Financial Channel and Investment Channel. For the purpose of this research work, Total Export and Total Import is considered for trading channel while Nominal Effective Exchange Rate is considered for financial channel and also Net Foreign Asset is considered for investment channel.

Fig. 1 present the dynamic effect of the Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) in response to financial, trading and investment shocks. One striking feature is the uniform switch in the sign following the shocks. The GDP depicts 1% standard deviation increase as a result of trading shock, GDP improves at first quarter and deteriorates at about second quarter which later improves in third quarter due to trading shocks. Therefore, trading shock contributed significantly to the observed RGDP. Adegboyega (2017) result shows that there is stable, long-run relationship between import-export and economic growth, but the magnitude is minimal. The factor which is likely to be responsible for the shock in the trading channel includes government policies that encourage export with implementation of import control.

105

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Fig. 2: The Response of Nigeria Domestic Indicator to the Terms of Trade Shock

Terms of trade variations as a potentially important channel of transmission of disturbances between national economies have a long tradition in international economics. This section assumes that the terms of trade are exogenous and analysis whether changes in them caused by variation in Nigeria domestic variables.

Fig. 2 present impulse response function results of exogenous terms of trade shocks on Nigeria domestic variables. Real Gross Domestic Product, Labour Force, Unemployment, Broad Money Supply (M2), Narrow Money Supply (M1), Reserve Money were virtually unaffected by the shock which means that throughout the quarter terms of trade shock have no positive relationship with economic fluctuation and its statistically insignificant. Similar conclusion was found out by Benedict and Uzochukwu (2011) that terms of trade shocks in Nigeria are high and has impacted negatively on macroeconomic performance. The factor which likely to be responsible for this is inability of the government to create macroeconomic stabilization as well as trade and investment liberalization in Nigeria to enable the economy to regain international confidence and improve the standard of living of the population.

The plots of time vary response on consumption, investment and inflation rate result depicts one standard deviation increase due to the shock from international trade. From chart 2, the impulse response function of terms of trade shock on consumption and inflation improve at first quarter and stable throughout the second quarter which later fall slightly at the third quarter and improve at fourth quarter. Consumption and inflation rate have positive relationship with term of trade shock which means it is statistically significant throughout the quarter. Terms of trade

106

An Assessment of the Impact of Domestic and External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuation in Nigeria shock on investment improve at the first quarter and a sharp fall toward the end second quarter and the response function decline during the third fifteen quarters. In a short run, the estimated shock on investment is statistically significant but become insignificant toward end of 15 quarter. Nikola Spatafora and Andrew Warner (2011) that permanent terms of trade shocks have a significant positive effect on consumption, investment and output, particularly of non-tradable found out similar conclusion.

Fig. 3 present the response of Nigeria external indicator to the monetary policy shock. Impulse response of monetary policy shock on exchange rate, total import, commodity products are improved at first quarter and a sharp fall immediately at second quarter. The magnitude of this fall is small after the second quarter. This implies that in a short run there is positive relationship between monetary policy shock and exchange rate, total import and commodity product. But in the long run the relationship is not apparent. Babatunde and Oluwafemi (2014), show that both real and nominal exchange rates in Nigeria have been unstable during the period under review.

From fig. 3, the response of monetary policy shock on total export, crude oil price, world inflation and world GDP are statistically insignificant throughout the period. Therefore, there is no positive relationship between monetary policy shock and export, crude oil price, world inflation and world GDP. Similar conclusion was found by Nwosa and Ajibola (2018) that monetary policy was insignificant in influencing export diversification in Nigeria.

107

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Fig.3: The Response of Nigeria External Indicator to the Monetary Policy Shock

The study concluded that monetary policy has not played a fundamental role in enhancing export diversification in Nigeria.

However, the monetary policy shock on net foreign asset and world interest rate are statistically significant and there is positive relationship among them throughout the quarters. The impact of monetary policy on world interest rate and net foreign asset is positive and likely factor responsible for the shock in the money supply include Government’s monetary stabilization measures. Compared with previous study by Gunes and Madhusudan (2018) find out that monetary policy shock tends to have persistent effect on long-term bond yield, corporate bond spread, and aggregate bank deposit and loans.

108

An Assessment of the Impact of Domestic and External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuation in Nigeria

Conclusion

This study examined the impact of domestic and external shock on macroeconomic fluctuations in Nigeria using FAVAR approach. Quarterly data between 1985-2016 was used to conduct the FAVAR procedure. A major finding of the study is the fact that the export sector that is supposed to be the engine of growth for the economy is exhibiting weak linkages with the rest of the economy. Thus, the study reveal that external variables are liable to economic variations. The study therefore shown that the Nigerian economy is perturbed by both real and nominal factors reinforcing the need for government intervention in the economy. The current experiences show that the economy cannot be left to the invisible hands and ultra-liberal market reforms.

Recommendation

Based on the findings, the study recommends the following;

i. That Nigeria should take practical steps to ameliorate the adverse effect of external shocks by carefully selecting and engaging policy thrust that suit the economic problems and environments. ii. The study also recommends the need for a major policy design to encourage value addition of the nation’s export commodities. iii. Long-run export diversification leading to less terms of trade volatility should be considered as a policy option aimed at private sector productivity growth. One of the reasons for extreme terms of trade shocks among most developing countries is the concentrated nature of their exports relative to their well-diversified imports. iv. The need to reduce aggregate terms of trade volatility by changing the composition exports.

References Adegboyega R. R. (2017). The Impact of Export and Import on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from VAR Approach. Journal of Management and Social Science.

Alege P.O., (2014). Macroeconomics Policies and Business Cycle Model for Nigeria: 1970 - 2014. CBN Journal of Applied Statistic Vol 3 No1.

Babatunde W. A. and Olufemi M.S., (2014). Monetary Policy Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria. Asian Economics and Financial Review, 4(4):544-562

Baxter M. and Kouparitsas M.A., (2015). Determinant of Business Cycle Comovement: a robust analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52: 113 – 157.

Bayoumi T. and Swiston A, (2009). Foreign Entanglement: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillover Across Industrial Countries. IMF Staff paper, 56: 353.

Benedict I. and Uzochukwu A., (2011). Terms of Trade Shocks: A Major Causes of Distortion in the Nigeria Economy. Asian Journal of Business and Management Science, Vol 1 No 1(25-38).

Blanchard O. and Perotti R., (1999). An Empirical Characterization of Dynamic Effect Change in Government Spending and Taxes on Output, in National Bureau of Economic Research.

109

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Bouakez H., Cardia E., and Ruge-Murcia F., (2005). The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multi- sector Economy.

Buckle R.A. Kim K., Kirkham H. McLelln N., and Sharma J., (2007). A Structural VAR Business Cycle Model for a Volatile Small Open Economy, Economic Modelling, 24: 990 -1017.

Calderon C., Chong A., and Stein E., (2007). Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are developing countries any different? Journal of International Economics, 71: 2 – 21.

Calvo G.A. and Vegh C.A., (1999). Inflation Stabilization and BOP crises in developing countries, Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1531 – 1614.

Canova F., (2005). The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20: 229 – 251.

Chia W.M., Jinjarak Y., Rona P., and Xie T., (2014). Net Foreign Assets and Macroeconomics Volatility. Journal of Asian Economics, 34: 42-53.

Ding D. and Masha A. (2012). India’s Growth Spillover to South Asia (IMF working paper, WP/12/56). IMF Washington DC.

Edeeberg W., Eichenbaum M., Fisher J.D., (1999). Understanding the Effcets of a Shocks to Government Purcahses. Review of Economic Dynamic, 2: 166 – 206.

Gafar, J., (1996). Macroeconomics Performance and External Shocks on Small Open Economies: the Caribbean experience. The Journal of Developing Areas, 30: 341 – ` 360.

Gerlach S. and Svensson L. E. (2003). Money and Inflation in the Euro area: A case for monetary indicators. Journal Monetary Economics, 50: 1649 – 1672.

Gunes K. and Madhusudan M., (2018). Do Interest Rates Play a Major Role in Monetary Policy Transmission in China? BIS Working Paper No714.

Houssa R., (2008). Monetary Union in West Africa and Asymmetric Shocks: a dynamic Structural factor model, Journal of Development Economics, 85: 319 – 347.

Inklaar R., Jong-A-Pin R., and De-Haan J., (2008). Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD countries - A re-examination, European Economic Review, 52: 646 -666.

Ireland P. N. (2007). Changes in the Federal Reserve’s Inflation Target: causes and consequences, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39: 1851 -1882. Jarko F., Kentaro I. Taro I., (2010). “Financial Integration and Internation Transmission of Business Cycle: Evidence from Dynamic Correlation”. www.researchgate.net/publication/46461242.

110

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017)

Ali Salisu1 and Mustapha Hussain2

1Department of Economics, Bayero University Kano, Kano State, Nigeria. [email protected] 2School of preliminary Studies, Sule Lamido University Kafin Hausa, Jigawa State

Abstract

The study assessed the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2017. It used quarterly time series data spanning the period between 1986Q1 and 2017Q4. The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) analysis was used to assess the effect of monetary policy following the framework of inflation targeting (IT) on economic growth in Nigeria. It further employed the Granger causality test to ascertain the direction of causation between monetary policy and economic growth in the country. Findings from the study revealed that monetary policy had a positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The monetary policy rate (MPR) positively affected growth through the periods under investigation. Its effect was however minimal only accounting for a maximum of 3 per cent of changes in the growth. Also, the broad money supply (M2) had a positive effect all through the period on economic growth, also only accounting for a maximum of 7 per cent of changes in economic growth. This result was supported by the causality test that found causation running from MPR and M2 to economic growth, and also causation running from MPR and the M2 to inflation. The study concluded that the inflation targeting (IT) framework was however a good monetary policy tool, but there is need for other instruments which combines quantity-based and price-based nominal anchors that the central bank can control effectively to improve the policy targets, while deepening financial intermediation for seamless pass through from policy rate to the economy.

Keywords: Monetary policy, Economic Growth, SVAR and Effect

Introduction

The employment of different instruments to achieve stability and long-term growth is the nucleus of macroeconomic management in any economy (Michael, 2012). A sustainably high growth rate of output and a low inflation rate are the two main goals of macroeconomic policies. In addition, price stability is a key factor in determining the growth rate of an economy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance place special emphasis on monetary policy as a tool to reach such intents; the trusted mechanism behind this approach, as in the classical monetary policy transmission mechanisms - is that monetary authorities should manage money growth and policy interest rates to impact credit conditions in the economy (and the aggregate demand) to reach programmed targets of single digit inflation and pre-determined levels of net external reserves (IMF 2010, IMF 2012). Monetary policy is without doubt an important tool for enhancing growth in the economy (Sulaiman and Migiro, 2014).

111

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Statement of the Problem

Growth over the years in Nigeria has been largely unstable and low. Per capita GDP was only USD2,980 in 2013, ranking 131st in the world compared to South Africa which had a per capita GDP of USD6,886 at 88th, according to the World Development Indicators (World Bank 2015). In 2015, The Nigerian economy has experienced modest growth. Over the last decade, it recorded an average growth rate of 6.8 percent (CBN, 2016). Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was estimated at 6.23 per cent in 2014 compared to 5.49 per cent in 2013. The rebasing of its GDP in April 2014 by the National Bureau of Statistics to better reflect the size and structure of the economy, saw it surge past South Africa to become Africa’s largest economy with a rebased GDP estimate of USD454 billion in 2012 and USD510 billion in 2013 (Olu, Afeikhena, David and Olufunke, 2016). However, given the country’s high population, per capita GDP was only USD2,980 in 2013, ranking 131st in the world compared to South Africa which experienced a per capita GDP of USD6,886 at 88th, according to the World Development Indicators (World Bank 2015). In 2015, the Nigerian economy was adversely affected by external shocks, in particular a fall in the global price of crude oil. Growth slowed sharply from 6.2% in 2014 to an estimated 3.0% in 2015. Inflation increased from 7.8% to an estimated 9% (African Economic Outlook, 2016). Targeting a growth rate of 7%, the goal of the present government is to have an economy with low inflation, stable exchange rates, and a diversified and inclusive growth (Reuters, 2017). As such, the role of appropriate policy cannot be overemphasised.

Nigeria’s financial system is relatively underdeveloped, shallow, bank dominated and characterized by a dearth of market instruments and securities (African Economic Outlook, 2016). This can impede the pass-through from policy rate changes to market rates; thus, diminishing policy effectiveness. Besides, the fact that banks may be more willing to hold risk-free government securities rather than lend to private investors implies that monetary policy interest rate changes may not affect aggregate demand as suggested by the NCM. This further undermines the effectiveness of monetary policy. The objective of this paper is to determine the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria.

Literature review

Conceptual Literature

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy may either be defined in a broad or in a narrow sense. Defined in a broader sense, monetary policy not only includes monetary measures but also non-monetary measures which have monetary effects (Smitha, 2010). In this sense, monetary policy covers a wide range of policies and measures. It includes not only monetary measures which influence the cost and availability of money but also those non-monetary measures which influence monetary situations. Thus, non-monetary measures such as control of prices or wages, physical control, budgetary measures, income policy measures, etc., would be included within the scope of monetary policy defined in broader sense as far as their primary aim is to influence the monetary situation.

In other word, monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country, like the central bank or currency board, controls the supply of money, often targeting an inflation

112

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) rate or interest rate to ensure price stability and general trust in the currency. Further goals of monetary policy are usually to contribute to economic growth and stability, to lower unemployment and to maintain a stable exchange rates with other currencies (Roger, 2010).

It involves how central banks manage liquidity to create economic growth. Liquidity is how much there is in the money supply. That includes credit, cash, checks and money market mutual funds. The most important of these is credit. It includes loans, bonds and mortgages (Kimberly, 2016).The primary objective of central banks is to manage inflation. The second is to reduce unemployment, but only after they have controlled inflation (Kimberly, 2016).

Central banks use contractionary monetary policy to reduce inflation. They employed many tools to do so. The most common are raising interest rates and selling securities through open market operations. They use expansionary monetary policy to lower unemployment and avoid recession. They lower interest rates, buy securities from member banks and use other tools to increase liquidity.

i. Objective of Monetary Policy – These include between other things full “employment” and “balanced economic growth”. Maintaining stable prices on a sustained basis is a crucial pre-condition for increasing economic welfare and the growth potential of an economy. The natural role of monetary policy in the economy is to maintain price stability. ii. Instruments of Monetary policy – the policy instruments used to achieve price and financial stability objectives in Nigeria are the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), and other intervention instruments such as Open Market Operations (OMO), Discount Window Operations, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Liquidity Ratio (LR) and Foreign Exchange Net Open Position (NOP) limit. These policy instruments are elucidated below with the view to providing more understanding. They include; a. Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) – This is an interest rate at which the CBN lends to commercial banks and other clients. b. Open Market Operation (OMO) – This refers to the buying and selling of government securities in the open market in order to expand or contract the amount of money in the banking system, facilitated by the CBN. d. Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) – This is a specified minimum fraction of the total deposits of customers, which commercial banks have to hold as reserves either in cash or as deposits with the central bank. e. Liquidity Ratio (LR) – This is the ratio between the liquid assets and the liabilities of a bank or other institution as set by the central bank. f. Foreign Exchange Net Open Position (NOP) – This is the net sum of all foreign currency assets and liabilities of a bank or financial institution inclusive of all currency, security or other asset.

Economic Growth

Economic growth has long been considered an important goal of economic policy with a substantial body of research dedicated to explaining how this goal can be achieved (Fadare, 2010).

113

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Economic growth represents the expansion of a country’s potential GDP or output. For instance, if the social rate of return on investment exceeds the private return, then tax policies can encourage growth rate and levels of utility. Growth models that incorporate public services, the optimal tax policy lingers on the characteristic of services (Olopade and Olopade, 2010). Moreover, economic growth has provided insight into why states grow at different rates over time; and this influence government monetary stance, her choice of tax rates and expenditure levels that will engender the growth rates.

Economic growth is the increase in the market value of goods and services produced by an economy over time (African Economic Outlook, 2016). It is conventionally measured as the percent rate of increase in real gross domestic product, or real GDP (IMF, 2012). Of more importance is the growth ratio of GDP to population (GDP per capita), which is also called per capita income. An increase in per capita income is referred to as intensive growth. GDP growth caused only by increases in population or territory is called extensive growth (Gordon, 1999).

Growth is usually calculated in real terms i.e., inflation-adjusted terms to eliminate the distorting effect of inflation on the price of goods produced. In economics, economic growth or economic growth theory typically refers to growth of potential output, i.e., production at full employment (Bogdanov, 2010).

Monetary Policy in Nigeria

Throughout Nigeria’s existence, the CBN has been tasked with the responsibility of implementing monetary policy in accordance with the macroeconomic policy objectives of the federal government of Nigeria (CBN, 2009). These objectives, as contained in the various Acts of the CBN, are broadly defined as the maintenance of internal and external balance. Consequently, monetary policy has been designed, over the years, with a view to attaining price, interest rate and exchange rate stability, maintaining a viable balance of payments position, and achieving accelerated growth of the economy (Nnanna, 2001). The policy framework in Nigeria has evolved over time, depending on political regimes and/or international best practices. Currently, the country targets inflation loosely with plans to migrate to a strict version eventually.

114

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) The New Consensus Macroeconomic

An amalgamation of some of the key assumptions of the new-Classical (rational expectations) and the new-Keynesians (short-run rigidities and long-run flexibility) constitutes the bedrock of the NCM model, the policy conclusion of which is that price-stability is the main objective of monetary policy. According to Setterfield (2006), the key elements of the NCM model are the assumption of real wage bargaining, monetary neutrality, supply-driven equilibrium and demand-determined inflation. Following Clarida, Galí and Gertler (1999) and Meyer (2001), these elements are typically summarized by three equations – IS-type AD, PC, and monetary rule (MR) – with micro-foundations in agents’ optimisation procedure (Gali, 2008; Walsh, 2003; Woodford, 2003). The views of the NCM are parallel to those of the new-Keynesians and new-Classical in arguing that a Central bank cannot engage in real output stabilisation in the long-run, since the combination of rational expectation and continuous market clearing ensures the emergence of inflationary pressures without output gains. The CB should thus concentrate on long-run price- stability and short-run output stabilisation (Fontana & Palacio-Vera, 2007).

Empirical Literature

The operation of monetary policy in Nigeria is dependent on the use of short term interest rate (which is the monetary policy rate (MPR)), and also the core of inflation targeting (IT) which represents the theoretical framework of this study and also depends on the use of short term interest rate as monetary policy tool. An analysis of the previous studies revealed that majority of the Nigerian based studies did not include this variable in their analysis, however, the studies by Ufoeze, Odimgbe, Ezeabalisi and Alajekwu (2017), Iheanacho (2017), and Musa and Asare (2013) did capture the MPR in their analysis. But however, the work by Iheanacho (2017) had its scope extended to 2017 and using the VECM model. It however used annual data. Similarly, the work of Musa and Asare (2013) used the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), their study terminated at 2010. Ufoeze, Odimgbe, Ezeabalisi, and Alajekwu (2017) on the other hand had its scope terminating at 2016, their study however used the Multiple regression model in the analysis. In filling the study gap, this work used structural Vector Autorgerssion (SVAR) model which is guided by economic theory in its analysis, while using a higher frequency data to capture the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in the country.

Therefore, as Meyer (2001) puts it- ‘the NCM-PC pins down the degree to which prices are sticky in the short-run, allowing scope for both short-run movements in actual output relative to potential and for stabilization policy, while providing a mechanism that ensures a transition to the long-run classic equilibrium’.

By postulating a continuous supply-side equilibrium, the NCM model assumes that inflation is demand driven. Accordingly, the model suggests that supply shocks –  ~ iid(0, 2 ) are transient, stochastic and neither affect inflation nor inflation expectations PC  PC (Arestis and Sawyer, 2006). In essence, the NCM assumes that inflation can be controlled by AD management and that the interest rate is the appropriate monetary policy instrument. It further suggests that at the equilibrium rate of interest the output gap is zero (implying also that AD equates AS) and inflation constant. Consequently, deviation of the interest rate from its natural level impacts on the output gap which in turn influences the level of inflation. The assumption of random supply shock with zero mean complements the premise of a constant NAIRU (Non

115

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) so that the natural level of output is unaffected by monetary policy shocks (Gali, 2008). Expansionary monetary policies are, thus, steered at demand shocks in order to increase economic activity thereby raising the rate of inflation (Smith and Wickens, 2007). Hence, the final impact of monetary policy is on the rate of inflation and as such this should constitute the policy target. The fundamental trust of the NCM is that the short-term interest rate management would only be effective (i.e. affect inflation rate) if it affects the level of AD (Bain and Howells, 2009). By assuming that inflation is a demand phenomenon, the NCM critically undermines other sources of inflation particularly cost related factors (Gnos and Rochon, 2007).

Methodology

Type and Sources of Data

Secondary data was employed for this study using time series particularly quarterly data spanning 1986: Q1 to 2017: Q4. The data were sourced from the annual statistical bulletin of CBN 2017 edition.

Model Specification

This study adopted the empirical work of Micheal (2012) and as such the variables included in the SVAR model for this study are the Gross Domestic product (GDP), the monetary policy rate (MPR), inflation rate (INF), and the broad money supply (M2).

GDP  f (MPR, INF,M 2 ) 3.1

LnGDP  0  1LnMPR   2 LnINF  3 LnM 2   3.2 where in  is the error term and assumed to be a white-noise process where   ii(0, 2 ) since the mean is equal to zero and variance is constant (Bollerslev, 1986). Meanwhile, is the coefficient of the respective estimated variables, LnGDP is the natural log of real GDP, LnMPR is the natural log monetary policy rate, INFis inflation rate (proxied by the consumer price index), while L nM2 is the natural log of broad money supply.

Technique of data analysis

Unit Root Test

Since most of the macroeconomic time series are non-stationary (Nelson and Plosser, 1982) and thus conducive to spurious regression, stationarity is first tested. For this purpose, theAugmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test is done by carrying out a unit root test based on the following structure;

n X t    t  X t1  i X t1   t , 3.15 i1

VAR

116

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) Here, a VAR reduced form specification shall be presented to enable specification of the SVAR; the SVAR model exhibits the features of a reduced-form statistical model of the data generating process. The starting point of SVAR analysis is the reduced form of VAR (Gottschhalk, 2001).

Reduced VAR

LnGDP  1  11 12 13 14 LnGDPt1  v1t         LnINF   k     LnINF v     2    21 22 23 24  t1    2t    LnMPR  3  i1 31 32 33 34 LnMPRt1  v3t           LnM LnM  2   4   41  42  43  44  2t1  v4t 

The variables LnGDP, LnINF, LnMPR, and L nM2 represents economic growth (growth of gross domestic output), inflation rate (proxied by consumer price index), the monetary policy rate, and the broad money supply respectively. Where the column vector on the left hand side of each equations denotes the vector of policy and non-policy variables, the optimal lag order of the VAR specification is k, the intercept is 's , that is, vectors of constants, 's are the coefficients of the variables of the model that is, the matrix of coefficients on the variables lagged j periods, v's are the VAR errors, that is, vectors of serially uncorrelated disturbances that have zero mean, unit- variance and zero-co-variance matrix. Following Granger (1986), the study re-specifies the general VAR model in an error correction representation.

There are basically two tools of analysis under the SVAR model as outlined above and as asserted by Enders (2014), they are:

i. Impulse Response Function (IRF): This is a tool which allows the tracing out of the time path of various shocks on the variables contained in the VAR system. It shows the time path response of variable to shock in itself and shock to other variables in the model. ii. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD): This shows the proportion of movement in a sequence that occurs due to its own shocks versus shocks to other variables in the model. In other words, it shows the apportionment of forecasting errors of a variable to itself and other variables in the system.

Table 1: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test Result Variable Order ADF ADF Critical Order of Remark Calculated value integration LnGDP At levels -2.485375 -3.445590 . 1st difference -12.59508 -3.445877 1(1) Stationary LnINF At levels -3.207928 -3.445590 . 1st difference -11.93759 -3.445877 1(1) Stationary LnMPR At levels -2.672659 -3.445590 . 1st difference -11.18130 -3.445877 1(1) Stationary LnM2 At levels -0.060158 -3.445590 . 1st difference -11.87261 -3.445877 1(1) Stationary Source: Author’s Computation using E-views.

117

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

The result of the ADF unit root test on Table 1 showed that the variables of LnGDP,LnINF, st LnMPR, and LnM2were all non-stationary at levels, but at 1 difference they were all found to be stationary because their computed ADF absolute values were greater than their critical values at the 5% level. From this test, all the variables were thus found to be stationary at 1st difference, meeting the stationarity condition. Table 2:VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Result Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 0 -340.0987 NA 0.003023 5.549980 5.640956 5.586936 1 381.9405 1385.849 3.43E-08 -5.837750 -5.382866* -5.652965* 2 402.9306 38.93329 3.16E-08* -5.918235* -5.099444 -5.585623 3 406.3477 6.117734 3.88E-08 -5.715286 -4.532587 -5.234846 4 423.9319 30.34683* 3.80E-08 -5.740836 -4.194230 -5.112569 * indicates lag order selected by the criterion

Source: Author’s Computation using E-views.

Where LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level), FPE: Final prediction error, AIC: Akaike information criterion, SC: Schwarz information criterion, HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion the VAR lag order selection test result on Table 2 showed that the SIC selected 1 lag. As such, this study used 1 lag to carry out the VAR estimation.

Impulse Response Test

The Impulse Response Function (IRF) is a tool used to trace out the time path of the various shocks on the variables contained in the VAR system. It shows the time path of the response of variable to shocks in itself and shocks to other variables in the model. The IRFs are very useful in analyzing the interactions among variables in a VAR model. The impulses represent the reactions of the variables to shocks hitting the system. The interpretation for the IRFs are split into 10 periods to effectively trace the effect of shocks to variables, it particularly uses period 3 and 10 to represent the short and long-run periods respectively. The responses of the variables of interest of this study are presented and interpreted on Fig. 5.

Response of GDP (LnGDP) to shocks from Inflation (LnINF)

Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations

Response of LNGDP to LNINF .12

.10 .08 .06 .04 .02 .00 -.02 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Fig. 1: Response of GDP (LnGDP) to shocks from Inflation (LnINF)

118

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) Figure 1 shows the response of GDP (LnRGDP) to shocks from inflation (LnINF). From period 1 to 10, the graph shows a steady and consistent negative slope of LnGDP to shocks from LnINF. The graph shows LnINFnegatively affecting LnGDP over the 10 periods. This indicates that in both the short-run period and the long-run period LnINF negatively affected LnGDP. The inflation variable followed apriori expectation, indicating that inflation is detrimental to economic growth necessitating the NCM framework of inflation targeting so as to keep it at manageable levels.

Response of GDP (LnGDP) to shocks from Monetary Policy Rate (LnMPR)

The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) for this study represents the variable of interest that basically captures government’s monetary policy stance as it relates to inflation targeting and its subsequent transmission to the economy. The LnMPR positively affected growth through the 10 periods under investigation. Its effect was however minimal considering that both in the short-run and in the long-run it maintained a value that was a little below 0.02. This result is in conformity with the inflation targeting framework (IT) framework that sound inflation targeting at manageable levels ultimately should have a positive impact on economic growth.

Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations

Response of LNGDP to LNMPR .12

.10

.08

.06

.04

.02

.00

-.02 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Fig. 2: Response of GDP (LnGDP) to shocks from Monetary Policy Rate (LnMPR)

Response of GDP (LnGDP) to shocks from Money Supply (LnM2)

The broad money supply variable (LnM2 ) represents M1 , plus time savings, and foreign currency deposits of resident sectors other than the central government. The M 2 quantifies the amount of money in circulation and it is also used to explain the different economic monetary conditions. This variable represents the use of other monetary policy instrument other than the MPR in this study, and this is based on the fact that monetarists’ argue that there is stable relationship between the intermediate target M 2 on one hand and output, inflation, unemployment, and other relevant economic variables on the other; and government is able to control M 2 . The slope of LnGDP responding to shocks from LnM2maintained a steady upward positive relationship all through the 10 periods. With a value of about 0.02 in the short-run period, it shows

119

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

LnGDPgrowing as a result of shocks from LnM2to a little below 0.04 in the long-run period. This result points to the fact that broad money supply represents an important monetary policy instrument in monetary policy design in Nigeria. Its complementary role helps to achieve a stable inflation and output level in the economy.

Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations

Response of LNGDP to LNM2 .12

.10

.08

.06

.04

.02

.00

-.02 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Figure 3: Response of GDP (LnGDP) to shocks from Broad Money Supply (LnM2).

Response of Inflation (LnINF) to shocks from Monetary Policy rate (LnMPR)

The impulse response function of Inflation (LnINF) to shocks from Monetary Policy rate (LnMPR)in this study assesses the efficacy of an inflation targeting (IT) type monetary policy in Nigeria which represents the use of short term interest rate to achieve price-stability. Over the 10 periods, the slope of LnINFremained below 0.04. Although the ideal situation was to keep inflation at negative levels (which indicates a reduction in inflation), the MPR however kept inflation at manageable levels at all times represents the core of an IT policy; This study, therefore concluded that although the MPR did not reduce inflation, it however kept the inflation rate below the 0.04 threshold over the 10 period.

Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations

Response of LNINF to LNMPR .20

.16

.12

.08

.04

.00

-.04 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Figure 4: Response of Inflation (LnINF) to shocks from Monetary Policy Rate (LnMPR).

Response of Inflation (LnINF) to shocks from broad Money supply (M2)

The impulse response function of Inflation (LnINF) to shocks from broad money supply (M2) presented in Figure 5 indicated that the response of LnINFto shocks from M2 kept inflation at much more lower level in comparison with the impulses from MPR. The lower the impulse the

120

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) better the monetary policy tool, since the target is on keeping inflation at lower levels, As such result points to the fact that the M2 had more efficacy than the MPR at keeping inflation at manageable levels.

Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations

Response of LNINF to LNM2 .20

.16

.12

.08

.04

.00

-.04 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Figure 5: Response of Inflation (LnINF) to shocks from Monetary Policy Rate (LnMPR).

Variance Decomposition Test

The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) is used to determine the proportion of movement in a sequence that occurs due to its own shock versus shocks to other variables in the model. In other words, the variance decomposition shows the apportionment of forecasting errors of a variable to itself and other variables in the system. For analysis, this study used period 3 and 10 to represent the short and long-run periods respectively.

Variance Decomposition of LnGDP

The variance decomposition of GDP (LnGDP) for the SVAR estimation is presented in Table 4. The test result showed that own shock constituted the most source of fluctuation in the model followed by shocks from broad Money supply (LnM2) and then Monetary Policy Rate (LnMPR). The variance decomposition of LnGDP indicates that a one standard deviation positive shock or innovation to LnM2 caused LnGDP to change by about 1 per cent in the short-run, in the long-run however, it caused LnGDP to change by 7 per cent. Shocks from LnMPR caused 1 per cent and 4 per cent of fluctuations in LnGDP in the short and long-run respectively. While, shocks from LnINF caused 0.4 per cent and 2 per cent of fluctuations in LnGDP in both the short and long-run respectively. The variance decomposition of LnGDP showed that the broad supply had more effect on LnGDPthan the MPR for the period under analysis.

Table 3: Variance Decomposition of LnRGDP Period S.E. LnGDP LnINF LnMPR LnM2 1 0.108964 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 0.146064 99.32391 0.143389 0.274207 0.258492 3 0.170964 98.09383 0.383032 0.745128 0.778010 4 0.189829 96.57609 0.650617 1.288757 1.484541 5 0.205033 94.94316 0.906336 1.830164 2.320338 6 0.217758 93.29760 1.130231 2.329224 3.242944 7 0.228683 91.69506 1.314764 2.768064 4.222108 8 0.238237 90.16201 1.459507 3.141930 5.236557 9 0.246715 88.70779 1.567691 3.453181 6.271334 10 0.254326 87.33245 1.644128 3.707598 7.315824 Source: Author’s Computation using E-views.

121

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Variance Decomposition of LnINF

The result of the variance decomposition of Inflation (LnINF) is presented in Table 5. The result showed that innovation or shock to LnMPR caused more fluctuation to LnINF in both the short-run and in the long-run after own shock. Shocks from LnMPR caused 2 per cents and 5 per cent of fluctuation in LnINF in the short and long-run respectively. A one standard deviation positive shock or innovation to LnM2 caused LnINFto fluctuate by 0.22 per cent and 2 per cents respectively in the short and long-run. This result indicated that the MPR remains an important component in the operation of monetary policy in Nigeria, thus supporting the result of the impulse response test on the efficacy of inflation targeting (IT) monetary policy framework.

Table 4: Variance Decomposition of LnINF Period S.E. LnGDP LnINF LnMPR LnM2 1 0.198056 0.926981 99.07302 0.000000 0.000000 2 0.261096 1.275051 98.37229 0.276796 0.075868 3 0.300267 1.577573 97.42639 0.779401 0.216633 4 0.327462 1.819562 96.38920 1.396900 0.394337 5 0.347409 1.999515 95.35644 2.054127 0.589918 6 0.362529 2.123401 94.38171 2.703692 0.791194 7 0.374241 2.200537 93.49063 3.317987 0.990848 8 0.383451 2.241053 92.69146 3.882674 1.184816 9 0.390778 2.254506 91.98250 4.391894 1.371099 10 0.396659 2.249216 91.35685 4.844967 1.548963

Source: Author’s Computation using E-views

Post-Estimation Test

Autocorrelation Test Result The result of the Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test used to test for serial correlation is presented in Table 5. Conducted at the 5% level, the probabilities of its lags were all greater than the 5% level. This study as such, accepts the null hypothesis for this test which states that there is no serial correlation in the model.

Table 5: The Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test Result

Null hypothesis: No serial correlation at lag h Lag LRE* stat df Prob. Rao F-stat Df Prob.

1 6.601339 16 0.9802 0.408127 (16, 339.7) 0.9802 2 5.879297 16 0.9893 0.363108 (16, 339.7) 0.9894

Null hypothesis: No serial correlation at lags 1 to h Lag LRE* stat df Prob. Rao F-stat df Prob.

1 6.601339 16 0.9802 0.408127 (16, 339.7) 0.9802 2 34.87432 32 0.3329 1.095882 (32, 396.2) 0.3337 Source: Author’s Computation using E-views.

122

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) Normality Test Result

The Jarque-Bera normality test result which was used to ascertain the distribution of the residuals in the model is presented on Figure 6. The result of the Jarque-Bera statistics has skewness and kurtosis that matches that of a normal distribution. The probability value of the Jarque-Bera statistics of 0.34is greater than the 5% level. As such the null hypothesis for this test which states that the residuals are normally distributed is accepted.

12 Series: Residuals Sample 1986:1 2017:4 10 Observations 128

8 Mean 6.46E-16 Median 0.001108 6 Maximum 0.573017 Minimum -0.509372 Std. Dev. 0.245463 4 Skewness 0.220748 Kurtosis 2.545384 2 Jarque-Bera 2.141838 Probability 0.342693 0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

Fig. 6: Jarque-Bera Normality Test Result

Stability Test Result

The Inverse roots of AR characteristic polynomial VAR stability test is presented on Figure 6. The Inverse roots of the AR characteristic polynomial graph have roots with modulus which are less than one and they lie within the unit circle. It therefore means that the model is stable and the impulse response standard errors would be valid and the conclusions of the model would also be reliable. Therefore, the VAR model satisfies the dynamic stability condition.

Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Fig. 7:Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial VAR Stability Test Result

123

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Conclusion

The study assessed the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2017. It used quarterly time series data spanning the period between 1986Q1 and 2017Q4. The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) analysis was used to assess the effect of monetary policy following the framework of inflation targeting (IT) on economic growth in Nigeria. The findings of the study show that output and prices respond positively to a positive shock in MPR and real money supply. There is a positive relationship between the MPR and real money shock and growth of real domestic output in Nigeria. Although, the positive responses of output to MPR was less compared to that from the broad money supply, the broad money supply was however a much more effective monetary policy tool to achieve growth and control inflation than the MPR. Despite the result showed that the Nigerian economy responded positively to the IT framework and the use of M2, their effects were minimal, pointing to the weak institutional features and fiscal dominance; these, jointly debilitate the conduct of monetary policy, and diminishes its reliability The study concludes that the MPR was however a good monetary policy tool, but there is need for other instruments which the central bank can control effectively.

Recommendation Based on the findings, the study recommends the following; i. That Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should adopt monetary policy instrument which combines quantity-based and price-based nominal anchors, to improve policy targets. ii. CBN to embark on a comprehensive monitoring of monetary instruments and aggregates. In particular, effective monetary policy implementation should focus on controlling and manipulating instruments such as the lending rates (with more emphasis on the maximum lending rate because it reflects the true cost of borrowing in the economy), as major tool for transmitting monetary impulses for economic performance. iii. There is need for the country’s large shadow economy to be integrated into a formal financial sector. This could further deepen financial intermediation in in the country. iv. Thus, there is the need to fortify the financial sector reform drive by strengthening its regulatory and supervisory functions. Along this line, the Central Bank of Nigeria should improve on the level of liquidity management. References

Adam, C. and Goderis, B. (2008). Monetary policy and oil price surges in Nigeria. In Collier, P., Soludo, C.C. &Pattillo, C. (Eds.) economic policy options for a prosperous Nigeria. Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan. Adejare, A. T. and Omodara, A. W. (2013). Monetary policy and economic growth: The Nigerian experience. Prime Journal of Business Administration and Management (BAM), 3(1), 822- 833. Adigwe, P. K., Echekoba, F. N. and Onyeagba, J. B. C. (2015). Monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria: A critical evaluation. Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM), 17(2), 110-119.

124

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) African Economic Outlook (2016). Nigeria economic outlook. Retrieved from https://www.afdborg/en/countries/west-africa/nigeria/nigeria-economic-outlook/ Allsopp, C. and Vines, D. (2000). The assessment: Macroeconomic policy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 16(4), 1-32. Allsopp, C. and Vines, D. (2000). The assessment: Macroeconomic policy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 16(4), 1-32. Amir, K. (2013). Determinants of the real exchange rate in a small open economy: Evidence from Canada. Journal of International Fnancial Markets, Institutions and Money, 23, 163-178. Amisano, G. and Giannini, C. (1997). Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics (2nd ed.). Berlin: Springer Verlag. Arestis, P. (2007). What is the new consensus in macroeconomics? in Arestis, P. (Ed.) Is there a new consensus in macroeconomics? Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan. Arestis, P. and Sawyer, M.C. (2000). A critical reconsideration of the foundations of monetary policy in the new consensus macroeconomic framework. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(5), 761-779. Arestis, P. and Sawyer, M.C. (2004). Re-examining monetary and fiscal policy for the 21st century. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. Arestis, P. and Sawyer, M.C. (2005). Aggregate demand, conflict and capacity in the inflationary process. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 29(6), 959-974. Arestis, P. and Sawyer, M.C. (2006). The nature and role of monetary policy when money is endogenous. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(4) 847-860. Arestis, P. and Sawyer, M.C. (2008). The new consensus macroeconomics: An unreliable guide for policy. RevistaAnáliseEconômica, 26(50), 275-295. Ayubu, V. S. (2013). Monetary policy and inflation dynamics: An empirical case study of the Tanzanian economy [Doctoral dissertation]. Department of Economics, UMEA University, Sweden. Bain, K. and Howells, P. (2009). Monetary economics: Policies and its theoretical basis (2nd Edition). Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan. Batini, N. (2004). Achieving and maintaining price stability in Nigeria. IMF Working Paper WP/04/97. Bean, C. (2007). Is there a new consensus in monetary policy? in P. Arestis (Ed.) Is there a New Consensus in Macroeconomics? Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan. Bernanke, B.S. (1986). Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation. Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 25, 49-99. Bogdanov, B. (2010). Cyclicality of fiscal policy over business cycle. Cambridge: University Press. Bollerslern B. (1986). Cyclicality of fiscal policy over business cycle. Cambridge: University Press. Breitung, J. (2005). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data. Econometric Reviews, 5(7), 151-174.

125

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Carlin, W. and Soskice, D. (2006). Macroeconomics: imperfections, institutions, and policies. Oxford: Oxford University Press. CBN (2006). What is monetary policy? Monetary Policy Series 01/2006 CBN (2007). Estimating a monetary policy reaction function for the central bank of Nigeria. A policy memorandum of the research and statistics department. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria. CBN (2009). 50 years of central banking in Nigeria: 1958- 2008. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria. CBN (2017). Estimating a monetary policy reaction function for the central bank of Nigeria. A policy memorandum of the research and statistics department. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria. CBN/FOS/NISER (2001). A study of Nigeria’s informal sector. Vol.1, Lagos: Central Bank of Nigeria. Chikeremma, N. V. (2013). The impact of monetary policy on Nigeria economy [B.Sc thesis]. Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Social Sciences, Caritas University, Amorji-Nike, Emene, Enugu State, Nigeria Clarida, R.J. Galí, R. and Gertler, M. (1999). The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature,37(4), 1661-707. Dada, E.A. (2011). Inflation targeting monetary policy and output in Nigeria. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 11(1), 35-57. Davidson, P. (2006). Can, or should, a central bank target inflation? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,28(4), 689-703. Davidson, P. (2006). Can, or should, a central bank target inflation? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,28(4), 689-703. Ekwe, M. C., Ogbonnaya, A. K. and Omodero, C. O. (2017). Monetary policy and Nigeria’s economy: An impact investigation. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(11), 218-222. Enders, W. (2014). Applied econometric time series. New Delhi: Wiley India Pvt Ltd. Epstein, G. and Yeldan, E. (2008). Inflation targeting, employment creation and economic development: Assessing the impacts and policy alternatives. International Review of Applied Economics, 22(2), 131-44.

Fadare, S.O. (2010). Recent banking sector reforms and economic growth in Nigeria. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 8(3), 77-88. Fontana, G. (2009). Whither new consensus macroeconomics? The role of government and fiscal policy in modern macroeconomics: in Hein, E., Niechoj, T. &Stockhammer, V. (Eds.) Macroeconomic policies on shaky foundations - whither mainstream economics? Marburg: Metropolis-Verlag. Galí, J. (2008). Monetary policy, inflation and the business cycle. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

126

Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2017) Gnos, C. &Rochon, V. (2007). The new consensus and post-Keynesian interest rate policy. Review of Political Economy, 19(3), 369-386. Golinelli, R & Parigi, G. (2014). Tracking world trade and GDP in real time. International Journal of Forecasting, 30(4), 847–862. Gordon, B. J. (1999). The way it worked and why it won’t: Structural change and the slowdown of U.S. economic growth. London: Westport, CT Praeger. IMF (2010). Regional economic outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa resilience and risks. Report no. 10/10. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. Kimberly, A. (2016). What is monetary policy, objectives, types and tools? Retrived from https://www.thebalance.com/tarde-policy-glossary-4073023. Meyer, L.H. (2001). Does money matter? Federal reserve bank of St. Louis: Review, 83(5), 1-16. Michael, C.O. (2012). Monetary policy in developing countries: The case of Nigeria (Doctoral dissertation). University of Leeds, Leeds University Business School. Nnanna, O.J. (2001). Monetary policy framework in Africa: The Nigerian experience. Retrieved from www.reservebank.co.za/internet/Publication.nsf Olopade, B.C. &Olapade. D.O. (2010). The impact growth and development in developing countries: Nigeria as a case study. Journal of Research in National Development, 5(2), 5-17. Roger (2010). Inflation targeting turns 20. Finance and Development, 47(1), 46-49. Setterfield, M. (2006). Is inflation targeting compatible with post-Keynesian economics? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 28(4), 653-671. Smith, P.N. &Wickens, M. (2007). The new consensus in monetary policy: Is the NKM fit for the purpose of inflation targeting? in Arestis, P. (Ed.) Is there a new consensus in macroeconomics? Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan. Smitha, T. H. (2010). Impact of monetary policy on Indian economy in the post-reform period [Doctoral dissertation]. Department of Applied Economics Cochin University of Science and Technology Cochin, Kerala, India. Walsh, C.E. (2003). Monetary theory and policy (2nd ed.). Massachusetts: The MIT Press. Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

127

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities ofDelta State, Nigeria.

Mogborukor, Joseph Oghenero Ph.D

Department of Geography and Regional Planning, Delta State University, Abraka. [email protected]

Abstract

This study examined the application of profit maximization concept in pricing and output of agricultural crops in three studied areas of Agbor, Abraka and Ozoro within Delta State. Each study area is stratified into four (4) zones/neighborhoods, and each zone has 100 administered questionnaires: totaling four hundred (400) questionnaires in each study zone hence, the aggregate of 1200 questionnaires. This was administered to farmers learned enough to respond to questionnaire and those that cannot respond were guided by the researcher. Descriptive statistical method of averages and graphs were employed to illustrate the data collected. It was discovered that the best optimum production and maximization profit level for a farmer is where marginal cost is equal to marginal revenue (MC = MR). This should be the best choosing output and profit maximization level for the farmers. It was discovered that farmers output depended on the size of farm holdings, rate of output and income generated. It was therefore recommended for the purpose of sustenance of income by the farmers in the agricultural business. In order to avoid fluctuations in pricing and output that usually hinder growth and development, farmers are expected to maintain a state of equilibrium both in the short and long run where marginal cost will be equal to marginal revenue. To obtain excess profit margin, the marginal revenue should exceed marginal cost.

Keywords: Agricultural Farmers, Marginal Cost, Marginal Revenue, Optimum Output and Profit Maximization,

Introduction:

In Nigeria, agriculture with regards to farming constitutes the backbone of the economy employing about 65-70% of the labour force (Yakubu, 2015). Izuchukwu (2011) is of the opinion that agricultural holdings are generally small, scattered and of subsistence nature which usually involves the use of simple implements and shifting cultivation. These small farmers produce about 80% of the total food crops in the country and also 30.7 million hectares (76 million acres) or 33% of the country’s land area, which is put to cultivation (Odetola and Etumnu, 2013; Adebayo and Olagunju, 2015). Nwankpa (2017) found out that with Nigerians current population employed in agricultural sector and most of them living in rural areas, the agricultural sector has become the key to the country’s economic development contributing about 40 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, Oyenbo and Rekwot (2014) are of the view that this sector constitutes a vital source of income, employment and the production of raw materials to feed the agro-allied industries. Agriculture being a major source of income to the rural and some urban dwellers, it is imperative that those who are engaged in this sector of the economy must take useful decisions that will enhance their income level for growth and human development. Accordingly, Ilbery (1978) and Umo (2012) stated that all that happens in the agriculture sector especially to those

128

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities of Delta State, Nigeria. who practice farming will depend on the nature of the decision taken which could either be in form of short or long run decision. The first decision involves planning or policy making which is purely concerned with major questions such as the choice of enterprise and allocation of capital resources. Such decisions are usually made in advance of their implementation and they provide a ‘structure plan’ for the future organization of the farm, while others involve decisions that are made on daily or weekly basis. These decisions are made based on prevailing weather and market conditions and in the event of unforeseen problems such as crops and livestock diseases or staff absence. Policy making decisions require careful and original thought, while short term decisions require snap judgments.

For the past fifty-five (55) years or thereabout, Nigeria farmers has practiced subsistence farming which invariably have led to small holdings and output thereby ending up in providing for the immediate family needs. This situation has decreased the profit margin of most farmers who do not forge to create wealth from agriculture as an economic enterprise (Mogborukor, 2012).

Apart from been motivated by profit maximization, farmers in Nigeria can also base their decision on social recognition. That is, achievement of status, respect, or even power within a particular community or group. The main push according to Akinbode (2005 and Adesina (2012) of any farmer is to make profit and minimize cost as it is well emphasized in the economic principles of demand and supply. Over time, farming in Nigeria has grown from being subsistence to an economic enterprise which entails maximization of profit from those involved in farming as a business. This brings to the fore, the importance of the concept of profit maximization in evaluating farmer’s decisions. The objectives of this study are as follows;

i. To assess the output and cost of production in a short and long run. ii. To examine the profit margin of the farmers due to fluctuation in the prices of agricultural products in the market.

Description of Study Area

The study was carried out in three Senatorial districts of Delta State which include; Delta North (Agbor), Delta South (Ozoro), and Delta Central (Abraka) (See Figs 1, 2, 3 and 4). Delta State is located in the south-south region of Nigeria. It lies approximately within Latitude 050001 North to 050 451Northof the Equator and Longitude 060001Eastto 060 301Eastof the Greenwich meridian. The Study area covers an area of 1,920km2. The population of Delta State is 4,112,445 people (National Population Census, 2006). The population is now estimated to be more than 5 million (Federal Bureau of Statistics, 2018)

The stateis drained by two major rivers which are River Ethiope and Forcados and empty their water into the Atlantic Ocean and both rivers have the dendritic pattern of drainage. The study area displays a low relief and has an elevation of about 60 which is by physical region classification of Nigeria falls under the interior costal margin of the country. The climate of the area is influenced by two air masses, the tropical maritime air mass and tropical continental air mass. This region is of the humid tropical climate with high temperature between the months of November and April with variation in temperature between 250C-300C between April and October. The average rainfall distribution in these regions is about 2500mm- 3000mm annually and there is usually rainfall all through the year.

129

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

The three major vegetation types found in the study area arethe mangrove swamp forest, the fresh water swamp forest, and the tropical lowland rainforest. Vegetation is a source of lumbering, provision of herbs for medicinal purpose, income and employment to the inhabitant of this area. The soils are loamy in nature with muddy soil which varies from coarse through medium to fine grained.

Fig. 1. Map of Delta State Showing Study Areas Source: Ministry of Lands, Survey and Urban Development, Asaba (2005)

130

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities of Delta State, Nigeria.

532 612 532 532

Asaba – Benin – Lagos Express Oromi Umunede Igbodo

Amahia Aliagwai Agbor Asaba – Benin – Lagos Express AGBOR Utpe - Okpo

Boji Boji Owa N

Idumuesah LEGEND LGA boundary LGA Secretariat Sampled Locations Major Road Minor Roads Street Roads 510 510 532 612 0 8 16 24Km

Fig. 2. MAP OF AGBOR SHOWING SAMPLED LOCATION Source: Fieldwork, (2019)

131

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

532 612 532   532  

O w Emu Obiogo he Delta State Rd. lo Polytechnic gb Ozoro o- OWHELOGB ISOKO NORTH O O LGA zo Frenchys SECRETARIAT. Owhelogbro and o R Fries, Ozoro Junction O First zo Bank ro R d. OWH E Techorovia Ltd EMEVO Unit R y Nigeria Police Ban Ala O Ughelli Force Sqaure N zo Rd. HQ O Westin zo ro - IYED Hall ro - Id E Hotel Irr he i ze R LEGEN Ozoro LGAD Market LGAboundary SampledSecretariat LocationsMajor RoadMinor StreetRoads Roads 510 510  532 612   0 8 16  24Km

Fig. 3. Map of Ozoro Showing Sampled Location Source: Fieldwork (2019)

132

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities of Delta State, Nigeria.

     06 06 06 15   05 50 05 50 EDO STATE

Ogbeje Umeghe I Umeghe II UKWANI L.G.A Govt. Reserved Urhuoka Abraka River Ethiope DELSU DELSU Site III Site I Ekrejeta DELSU Site II Abraka P.O Ajalomi

Urhuovie Ugono Erho Abraka

Oria River Ovwuvwe

UGHELLI NORTH L.G.A Abraka Inland (Otorho)

Urhogbesa Oteri Ughere

UGHELLI

  NORTH L.G.A   05 45  05 45 06 06 LEGEND 06 15 Study Location 0 1 2km Main Town River Resort Motel Settlements N Clan Boundary Delta State University Major Road Police Station Minor Road General Hospital River Unity Bank Railway Line

Fig. 4. Map of Abraka Showing Sample Location Source: Fieldwork (2019)

Conceptual Issues

Theconcept of profit maximization which is borrowed from the discipline of economics is also applicable to agricultural geography to explore and explained some basic issues in farmer’s decision making. It is the short and long run process in which any firm be it industrial, commercial or agricultural may determine price based on input and output levels that will give the greatest profit margin

133

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Generally, maximizing profit is a very important goal of every farmer because when profit is maximized, more revenue will accrue to the individual who eventually will result in the expansion of their farm holdings, capital outlay, and employment of more labour force and other areas of the business. Therefore, maximization is a decision making process which involves choosing the best option through an exhaustive search.

In the opinion of (Akinbode, 2002; Adebayo and Olagunju, 2015) most farmers in Nigeria take their decisions based on the need to provide for the present and future requirements whether in terms of food production or in the accumulation of wealth. This propensity to increase food production and inherent wealth acquisition leads the desire for maximization of profit. Therefore, Tarrant (1974), stated that maximization of returns underlies the decisions of individual farmers and apart from that, the need for self-satisfaction also act as an alternative to profit maximization which also affects the farmer’s process of decision making. Profit maximization states that individual or firms that choose to maintain a stable profit must stay at a level of output where Marginal Cost (MC) is equal to Marginal Revenue (MR).

In investigating decision making in pricing and output, agriculture involves applying economic principles which entails orientation towards market demandsince agriculture is no longer regarded as a “way of life” but as earlier stated, it is now an economic enterprise.

Economically, farmers should produce agricultural products and raw materials with the intent to maximize profit or minimize cost in order to increase both Marginal Revenue (MR) and Total Revenue (TR). That is, farmers should be ready to produce more of a crop or livestock as price rises, and less as price falls in order to reap the benefits of profit maximization as applied by other enterprises. Farmers usually change their products as price change, always aiming at more profits; this leads them to adjustment of their inputs and outputs in order to maximize profit (Tarrant, 1974; DFID, 2015). The farmer has to always decide on how much of single input to use; how to combine two or more inputs to produce a given amount of product at the least cost; and what combination of products to raise so as to make more profits.

Research Method

Two sources of data were used to investigate carry out this study. This includes the primary and the secondary sources which are meant to bring out the relevant information required for the study. In order to collect data and carryout analysis, each of the study zone was stratified into four neighborhoods and one hundred (100) questionnaires was administered in each neighborhood given a total of four hundred (400) in each study zone of Agbor, Abraka and Ozoro with each from a Senatorial district of the State. This is with a view to achieving the above stated objectives. At the end, one thousand two hundred (1200) questionnaires were administered in twelve neighborhoods using systematic sampling techniques at an interval of five (5) houses along a particular street. The hundred (100) structured questionnaires were given to farmers who were learned enough to respond and those who are not were guided by the researcher.

The above sampling size and sampling frame was arrived at from the 2012 estimated population of the three towns in the local government areas using the Yamane formula (1967) for sampling size determination:

134

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities of Delta State, Nigeria.

푁 S= 1+푁(푒)² Where S= Sample size 1= constant N= Population size 푒= margin of Error is 5% (0.05) Applying the formula, the following was obtained: i. Agbor 67,610 ii. Abraka 6,940 iii. Ozoro 43,877 Total population equal to 118427

1 + 118427(0.05)² =399

Therefore, the sample size is 399. For the purpose of evenness however, the questionnaire was increased to 400 administered at each neighborhood. But not all questionnaires were retrieved as shown in the various zones. The purpose of the questionnaire is to elicit information on the types of crops produced in each zone, the total and average output annually and the average monthly income of farmers.Descriptive statistics using averages, percentages and graphs were used to analyze the data obtained from the field.

Table 1:Questionnaire Distribution to study Neighbourhoods in Abraka Zone

S/N ZONE B- (Abraka) No of Respondents 1 Ekrejeta 96 2 Oria 98 3 Umeghe/Urhuoka 94 4 Otorho-Avwraka 97 5 Total 385 Source: Field Survey, 2019

Table 1, Shows the various number of retrieved questionnaires in the study areas of Abraka with Ekrejeta having 96 respondents, Oria 98, Umeghe/Urhuoka 94, and Otoro-Avwraka 97. The total is 385 questionnaires retrieved out of 400 distributed. Apart from the table indicating number of questionnaires administered, it is meant to gather information on the average income of farmers in each area of the zone by farmers (see Table 3).

135

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Table 2. Questionnaire Distribution to study Neighbourhoods in Agbor Zone S/N ZONE A- (Agbor) No of Respondents i. Owa 96 ii. Igbodo 95 iii. Ute-Okpo 94 iv. Umunede 95 Total 380 Source: Field Survey, 2019

Table 2, indicates the various number of retrieved questionnaires in the study areas of Agbor with 96 respondents in Owa, 95 in Igbodo, 94 in Ute-Okpo and 95 in Umunede. The total is 380 questionnaires retrieved out of 400 distributed. The other purpose for administering these questionnaires is to gather information on the average income of farmers in each area of the zone by farmers (See Table 3).

Table3.Questionnaire Distribution to study Neighbourhoods in Ozoro Zone

S/N ZONE C- (Ozoro) No of Respondents 1 Iyede 94 2 Emevor 92 3 Owhe 96 4 Owhelogbo 98 5 Total 380 Source: Field Survey, 2019

In Table 3, the number of questionnaires retrieved from Iyede is 94, Emevor 92, Owhe 96 and Owhelogbo 98 giving a total of 380 questionnaires retrieved from Ozoro zone. The questionnaires were also used to elicit information on farmer’s average income (see Table 3). One of the specific objectives of this study/research is to assess the output of farmers in the three (3) zones of Abraka, Agbor and Ozoro.

From Tables 2, 3 and 4 similar food crops are produced in the three zones but with different output in metric tons annually. The total amount of all the crops produced in the different zones, are given as: Abraka 1,750, Agbor 2,120 and Ozoro 1,630 metric tons.

However, to arrive at the percentage reflected on tables 1, 2 and 3 of each crop produced, this is gotten by dividing each output of a particular crop in any zone by the total output of all crops and multiplying by 100. This is done for all crops in zones A, B and C. An example is shown below:

Abraka 200 푌푎푚 = × 100 = 11.4% 1750

136

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities of Delta State, Nigeria.

Results of Findings

Output and Cost of Production of Crops as ranked in the three zones of Agbor, Abraka and Ozoro

The amount of output or production by many farmers depends on three factors, namely; the size of the farm holdings, the rate of output and the numbers of output of other farmers. A short period is long enough to permit any desired change of output technologically through a change in the rate of output but is not long enough to permit any adjustment of size and numbers of other firms or farmers coming into production. The total annual output in metric tons of crops as well as responded annual output were both derived from Table 4.

Table 4.Types of crops and output in Agbor

Zone A (Agbor) Types of crops Respondents output metric tons annually (00) Percentage (%) produced Cassava 500 23.6 Yam 300 14.2 Cocoyam 400 18.9 Rice 200 9.4 Potato 200 9.4 Maize 150 7.1 Okro 120 5.7 Melon 80 3.8 Plantain 120 5.7 Pepper 50 2.4 Total 2,120 100 Source: Fieldwork, 2019 Table 5. Types of crops and output in Abraka

Zone B (Abraka) Types of crops Respondents output metric tons annually Percentage (%) produced (00) Cassava 200 11.4 Yam 400 22.8 Cocoyam 100 5.7 Rice 300 17.2 Potato 150 8.6 Maize 250 14.3 Okro 200 11.4 Melon 90 5.1 Plantain 40 2.3 Pepper 20 1.7 Total 1,750 100 Source: Fieldwork, 2019 Table 6. Types of crops and output in Ozoro

137

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Zone C (Ozoro) Types of crops Respondents output metric tons annually Percentage (%) produced (00) Yam 200 12.3 Rice 300 18.4 Cassava 300 18.4 Cocoyam 200 12.3 Potato 250 15.3 Maize 100 6.1 Okro 80 4.9 Melon 130 8.0 Plantain 40 2.5 Pepper 30 1.8 Total 1,630 100 Source: Fieldwork, 2019

From Tables 4, 5 and 6 in the three Zones of (Agbor) has the highest amount of output (2,120) metric tons annually, this is followed by Zone B (Abraka) which is 1,750 and Zone C (Ozoro) with 1,630 metric tons of crops produced annually.

Table 7: Average monthly income per farmer (output) Average income No of Responses Percentage (%) Less than ₦5,000 72 36 ₦5,000 - ₦10,000 104 52 ₦10,000 - ₦20,000 20 10 ₦20,000 - ₦30,000 4 2 Above ₦30,000 0 0 Total 200 100 Source: Fieldwork, 2019

Table 7, reveals the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents which showed that farmers earn between ₦5,000 - ₦30,000 monthly in income from their output of crops produced in the studied areas.

138

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities of Delta State, Nigeria.

Table 8. Output and cost of production in Agbor,Abraka and Ozoro

Total Total Total Total Average Average Average Marginal Annual Fixed Variable Cost Fixed Variable Cost, AC Cost, MC Output Cost Cost (Naira) Cost Cost (Naira) (Naira) (metric tons) (Naira) (Naira) (Naira) (Naira) 000 100 200 100 300 2.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 200 200 160 360 1.00 0.80 1.80 0.60 300 200 180 380 0.66 0.60 1.26 0.20 400 200 200 400 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.20 500 200 230 430 0.40 0.46 0.86 0.30 600 200 276 476 0.32 0.46 0.78 0.46 700 200 336 536 0.28 0.48 0.76 0.60 800 200 402 602 0.24 0.50 0.74 0.66 900 200 486 686 0.22 0.54 0.76 0.84 1000 200 600 800 0.20 0.60 0.80 1.14 Source: Fieldwork, 2019

Cost of output and Profit Margin

From Table 8 and Fig. 5 below, there is a positive correlation between increase in price and output. Therefore, the higher the price the more units of output the farmers we will be ready and willing to put into the market for sale. In the table pepper for example, had a total annual output of 100 metric tons at a total fixed cost of two hundred (₦200) and total variable cost of three hundred naira (₦300) with a marginal cost of ₦1.00. If there is further increase in the price of pepper in the market increases from three hundred naira (₦300) to four hundred naira (₦400) total output will also increase in the margin of an additional fifty (50) metric tons which will invariably increase marginal returns to farmers. This concept of cost as revealed above is very important in the determination of pricing and output by farmers in the market.

139

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

TC Y

1000 900 TVC 800

700

600

500

400

₦)

( TotalCost ofProduction 300

200 TFC

100 0 X

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Quantity of Output Fig 5. Graphical illustration of diminishing marginal returns of food crop production

Y 2.00

1.80

1.60

₦) ( 1.40 MC 1.20 1.00

0.80 AC

Production of ost

C 0.60 AVC 0.40 AFC 0.20 0 X 100 200 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 300 Quantity of Output Fig. 6. Graphical illustration of marginal cost of food crop production

140

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities of Delta State, Nigeria.

From Tables 4, 5, 6 and Fig 6, Farmers in Agbor and Abraka were able to maximize profit as greater quantity of food crops such as cassava was produced and brought to the market for higher price increases. As price increased from 0.60 naira, marginal cost also rose at a corresponding rate. If the output of cassava is (5000 tons) annually in Agbor and (200 ton) in Abraka, the marginal cost will be 0.60 and 0.20 naira respectively. This buttresses the point that, the higher the price the more output farmers are prepared to put into sale in order to realize more units of profit. This is the basis of profit maximization which is applicable to other study areas and crop output in the market.

Optimum level of output

LMC

₦)

(

LAC L

ost of Production of ost C Optimum Output

0 X 0 Output

Fig.7 Graphical illustration of production cost in the long run

Table 2 and Fig 7 illustrates the point at which farmers in the three study areas of Agbor, Abraka and Ozoro are prepared to optimize their profit. That is, the farmers are not willing to fall below cost of production and not going above cost of production. This decision is mostly taken by the farmers in order to remain in the business due to the fluctuating prices of crops in the market. However, farmers most farmers will want to sell their crops at a point above marginal cost in order to make excess profit. The optimum output from the diagram is at point (0OL) and the unit price is ₦0.20(naira) at which marginal cost cuts across marginal revenue from below.

141

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

The Best Pricing and Output Level for Farmers to Maximize Profit and Minimize Loss in the Market

1.14

0.66 MC AC

L2 0.30

L1 D K2 0.20 AR = MR

0.15 E K1 Price & Price Cost 0.10

0.05

0 M1 M0 M2 Output Fig.8. Profit maximization level curves in output and pricing farmers In Table 4 and fig. 8 shows that farmers in the study areas makes decision about the most profitable output level. The diagram illustrates the cost and revenue of farmers in Agbor, Abraka and Ozoro. Cost and output are measured along the X and Y axis respectively. MC and AC are the marginal and average cost curve and MR and AR are the marginal and average revenue curves.

In making a decision on the most profitable output, farmers take cognizance of the interplay of market forces which is very fundamental. The farmer’s produces output up to a level at which the increase in total cost due to additional unit of output is exactly equal to the increase in total revenue associated with that output unit. In order to maximize profits, the farmer must produce that output level at which marginal cost is equal to marginal revenue. In the diagram, OMO, is the output at which MC=MR at the intersecting point D with a cost of 0.20naira, If the farmer stops production at output level OM1, marginal cost is M1K1 and marginal revenue is M1L1. From M1 to Mo, every additional unit of output adds more to total revenue than to total cost. The farmer will therefore, expand output to OMO and so get extra net revenue represented by the area K1L1D.

On the other hand, if farmer expands output beyond OMO to say, OM2 marginal cost is M2L2 while marginal revenue is M2K2. At this point, marginal cost exceeds marginal revenue by L2K2. From M1 to Mo, every additional unit of output adds more to total revenue than to total cost. If the farmer decides to remain at OM1, output level, he would actually lose revenue by the amount

142

Application of Profit Maximization Concept and Decision Making in Pricing and Output by Farmers in Selected Communities of Delta State, Nigeria. represented by the area DL2K2. Since he also aims at loss minimization, it is better for the farmer to cut back production from OM2 to OMO where MC=MR at unit cost of 0.20 naira.

Conclusions

From the study, it was discovered that the various zones of study differ in output of crop production annually and average income per farmer differs but the basic issue is that, all farmers in the area will maximize profit at a point where marginal cost is equal to marginal revenue. This is explicitly stated in table 4 and fig 2.4 where MC=MR at OMOD. This is the best option in order for the farmers to remain in business. Beyond point OMOD the farmers will incur loss, while below area OM1L1. There will be “Super normal profit” earnings in excess of contractual payments. This is not too desirable for farmers in the study areas of (Agbor, Abraka and Ozoro).

Recommendation

In order for the farmers in the three study areas to benefit from agricultural output of farm crops and maximize profit as well as minimize loss, it is important that certain mechanism be put in place such as; modern storage facilities like silos to absorb excess food crops produced during off season. This will enable farmers to put their produce to the market all year round and avoid fluctuations in prices in both pre and post-harvest period. Also of importance, is provision of credit facilities through the agricultural banks to farmers to cushion the effect of scarcity of funds to implement the purchase of modern equipments which eventually will enhance productivity and the wealth status of farmers in the rural areas of Agbor, Abraka and Ozoro.

Farmers should form co-operative societies in their respective area of operation to enable them enhance their financial resources to mobilize more labour, agricultural lands, modern implements for tilling the soil and access species that are resistant to diseases. The coming together to form farmers co-operative society will also enable them have a formidable front to negotiate with different agencies and governmental authorities for better access roads, provision of health facilities that will enhance their well-being.

Farming in recent times has gone beyond subsistence level to purely an economic enterprise where profit margin is considered as very important. The farmers in Agbor, Abraka and Ozoro should key into these recommendations to attain growth, development and sustainability.

The study examined the application of profit maximization as a concept in decision making both in pricing and output by farmers in some selected communities. The concept is important to farmers in order to maximize profit and minimize loss. However, there is no straight jacket process to arrive at a farmer making maximum profit, but the concept will act as a guide to every enterprising farmer.

References

Adebayo, O. and Olagunju, K. (2015). Impact of Agricultural Innovation on improved livelihood and productivity outcomes among small holder farmers in Rural Nigeria. A paper presented at the 5th Annual Research. Conference Managing African Agriculture: Markets Linkages and Rural Economic Development. 4th September MSM, Maastrichi. The Netherlands.

143

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Adesina, A. (2012). Transforming Agricultural Growth in Nigerian’s Economy. Convocation Lecture delivered at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife by Honourable Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development. December 13.

Akinbode, A. (2002) Introductory Environmental Resource Management.A textbook Published by Daybis Limited. University of Ibadan. Nigeria.

Akinbode, A. (2005). Agriculture and Agricultural Geography Similarities in Objectives, Scope and Research Methodology. In: Segynola, A. (ed), Occasional Publications of the Department of Geography and Regional Planning, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Ambrose Ali University, Ekpoma, (1):150-171.

Department for International Development (DFID) 2015. DFID’s Conceptual Framework on Agricultures. November (Online). Available: http:/dfid-agriculture-consultation.nri.org.

Ilebery, B.W. (1978) ‘Agricultural decision-making: A behavioural perspective’; Progress in Human Geography; 2:448-466.

Izuchukwu, O. (2011), Analysis of the Contributions of Agricultural Sector on the Nigerian Economic Development. World Review of Business Research. 1: 191-200.

Mogborukor, J.O.A (2016) Enhancing Food Production through Sustainable Development in Ikpoba Okha, Nigeria. Journal of Social and Management Sciences, Faculty of the Social Sciences, University of Delta State, Abraka; 11(3):74-83.

National Population Census (2006) “Nigeria Census Figures” National Population Census Figure. National Population Commission Official Bulletin, Abuja.

Nwankpa, N.N. (2017). Sustainable Agricultural Development in Nigeria: Way out of Hunger and Poverty. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 6(4), 175-184.

Odetola, T. and Etumnu, C. (2013). Contribution of Agriculture to Economic Growth in Nigeria. Paper Presented at the 18th Annual Conference of the African Econometric Society. Accra, Ghana at the session organized by the Association for the advancement of African Women Economists (AAAWE) 22nd and 23rd July.

Oyenbo, O. and Rekwot, G. Z. (2014). Agricultural Production and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Implication for rural poverty alleviation. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 53, 207-223.

Tarrant, J.R. (1974) Agricultural Geography. Newton Abbot: David and Charles

Umo, J.U. (2012) Escaping poverty in Africa: A perspective on strategic Agenda for Nigeria. Millenium Text Publishers, Limited.

Yamane, T. (1967). Statistics: An Introductory analysis, 2nd Ed; New York, Harper and Row.

144

Libya’s Political Instability and Migration Crisis in Europe

1Andza, Saa-Aondo Moses and 2Dera, Harris Tordue 1Department of Political Science, Benue State University, Makurdi [email protected] 2Department of Political Science, University of Nigeria, Nsukka [email protected]

Abstract

This paper examines the political instability in Libya and its impact on migration crisis in Europe. The paper reveals that there exists political instability in Libya as its Political Stability Index Score has grown weaker from -1.29 ranking 171st in 2011 to -2.33, ranking 190th in 2017 as against 0.83 that ranked her 41st in 2009. The paper also establishes that there are about 1, 700 militia groups in Libya which are vying for the control of power which has led to the collapse of governance structure in the country. The paper equally finds that smuggling gangs have exploited, and are still exploiting, to the maximum the political instability in Libya to flood Europe with migrants. The paper also reveals that as a result of the political instability in Libya, 764, 403 migrants had arrived Italy and a recorded 17, 516 deaths at Sea between 2011 and 2018 as against 130, 921 between 2003 and 2010 that left Libyan shores for Europe. The study, therefore concludes that the political instability in Libya is culpable for the migration crisis in Europe and it is not likely to end soon unless the political instability in Libya is addressed.

Key words: Crisis, Europe, Instability, Libya, Migration and Political

Introduction

International migration has played a key role in the rise and fall of empires, states, and coalitions of states as the world moves through the major political and economic stages of mercantilism, colonialism, industrialization, post-industrialization, and globalization. Globalization, as the world’s latest political and economic stage, is the word used to describe the growing interdependence of the world’s economies, cultures, and populations, brought about by cross-border trade in goods and services, technology, and flows of investment, people and information (Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2019). As stated elsewhere, this presupposes that the parochialism of the nation-state is giving way to the global village. Paradoxically, as Bailey (2015) observes with dismay, never before have borders been so heavily policed; walls keeping prospective citizens out so high; camps for detaining the transient so large. Yet, in spite of all these barriers to entry and hazards to navigate, the number of migrants, globally, continues to ascend. This may not be unrelated to the recognition of freedom of movement, mobility rights, or the right to travel as human right concepts which predate the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948 which however, reaffirms in its Article 13 the right of people to move from one point to another as it proclaims that “everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state” and most importantly, as it relates to our discussion, “everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.” The afore mentioned declaration and other international human rights instruments or treaties and documents have given protection to migrants thus legitimizing and reinforcing movements across nations’ boundaries though with some provisions and conditions (which are often violated) in spite of barriers to entry and hazards to navigate.

145

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

According to UN, DESA (2017) the world counted 258 million international migrants in 2017 which represented 3.4 percent of the global population which is an indication that the number of international migrants is growing faster than the global population. In the global North, almost 12 of every 100 inhabitants are international migrants, compared to only two of every 100 inhabitants in the global South. During the period from 2000 to 2017, the total number of international migrants increased from 173 to 258 million persons, an increase of 85 million which represents 59 percent. Half of this increase took place in the countries of the developed regions (the global North), which Europe is a part. Europe hosted the second largest number of international migrants of 78 million coming only after Asia’s 80 million which is a difference of only 2 million representing 2.5 percent. The UN, DESA, (2017) indicates that six of every ten international migrants born in Europe fell from 29 to 24 percent, while the proportions originating from Africa and the Latin America and the Caribbean remain stable at 14 and 15 percent respectively. Between 2000 and 2017 however, Spain reported the largest relative increase in the number of international migrants of 260 percent, which shows that the percentages originating from Africa would not have only been maintained but would have further dropped if Libya, the hub of irregular migrants from Africa, was politically stable to control her borders and tackle the migrants’ smuggling networks within its shores which is sequel to the prevailing political instability in the country.

Political instability is the propensity for unconstitutional regime or government change and or incidence of political upheaval or violence in a society such as assassinations, violent demonstrations, unsteadiness in government policies and so forth (Gale, 2008). Gale’s conceptualization of political instability absolutely captures the situation in Libya which has led to loss of many lives with many sustaining various degrees of injuries and immense damage done to property. Since 2011 when the Gaddafi’s 42-year regime was brought to an end in Libya, the Africa’s largest proven crude oil reserve with 48.4 billion barrels (BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2018) has remained in a cycle of offensives and counter offensives between militias loyal to rival political groups. These have made peace not only elusive, but have made Libya to be extremely fragile, divided and prone to centrifugal developments. Between 2011 and 2016, the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix (2018) identified and located 303, 608 internally displaced persons (IDPs) and 60, 778 displaced households in Libya. Frykberg (2019) avers that Human Rights Solidarity (HRS) documented 3, 719 fatalities, the injured and kidnapped in clashes across Libya in the year 2018 alone. According to the BBC News May 25, 2017, there were estimated 1, 700 armed groups in Libya in the face of two rival parliaments and three governments which led to a weak governance structure necessitating the smuggling groups to exploit this to the maximum leading to the flood of migrants to Europe hence the migration crisis in Europe.

This paper therefore explores the impact of the political instability in Libya on the migration crisis in Europe for the purpose of proffering solutions to the phenomena. For an organized analysis, the paper is ordered into five (5) sections beginning with introduction as section one (1), followed by clarification of concepts which is section two (2). Section three (3) examines Gaddafi’s overthrow and political instability in Libya. Section four (4) dwells on the impact of Libya’s political instability on migration crisis in Europe and section five (5) is the conclusion.

146

Libya’s Political Instability and Migration Crisis in Europe

Clarification of Concepts

Migration

The International Organization for Migration (2011) defines migration as the movement of a person or a group of persons, either across an international border, or within a State. It further explains that it is a population movement, encompassing any kind of movement of people, whatever its length, composition and causes; it includes migration of refugees, displaced persons, economic migrants, and persons moving for other purposes, including family reunification. It is in the light of this that the IOM (2011) also conceives a migrant as any person who is moving or has moved across an international border or within a State away from his/her habitual place of residence, regardless of (1) the person’s legal status; (2) whether the movement is voluntary or involuntary; (3) what the causes for the movement are; or (4) what the length of stay is.

Basically, migration is the movement by people often over long distances from one place to another and in this context across national boundaries with the intentions of settling, permanently or temporarily, in a new location. According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, migration is the permanent change of residence by an individual or group; it excludes such movements as nomadism, commuting, and tourism, all of which are transitory in nature.

Political Instability

Slanders (1981, p. 3) contends that “political instability is the extent to which the occurrence or non-occurrence of changes in and changes to the government, regime or community deviates from the previous system specific ‘normal’ pattern.” The centrality of the executive arm of government to these changes must have informed Alesina, Ozler, Roubini and Swagel (1996) to conceive political instability as the propensity of a change in the executive power, either by constitutional or unconstitutional means.

Morrison and Stevenson, as cited in Jong-A-Pin (2008, p. 1) define political instability as “a condition in political systems in which the institutionalized patterns of authority breaks down and the expected compliance to political authorities is replaced by political violence.” In summary, political instability is, broadly speaking, defined in terms of changes in, or changes to, the political system which may take many forms and its indices include, but not limited to, coups d’états, political assassinations, kidnappings, major and minor changes in government and mass violent and non-violent demonstrations and civil wars.

Crisis

Crisis, according to Collins Dictionary, is a situation in which something or someone is affected by one or more very serious problem or a crucial stage or turning point in the course of something, especially in a sequence of events. Crisis also means a sudden deterioration of a chronic situation. Migration crisis in Europe, therefore, is conceived to mean the situation in which Europe has witnessed an unprecedented inflow of migrants albeit irregularly in its territories surpassing the 100, 000 threshold allowed per year which has caused anger among the people in Europe that too many foreigners are entering their countries and taking up their jobs as well as having pressure on their infrastructural facilities.

147

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Gaddafi’s Overthrow and Political Instability in Libya

Maleki (2011) traces the cause of the Libyan political instability to the reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit about the state of democracy in 167 countries which began in 2006 that measures the demand and supply of democracy semiannually. This presents seemingly reliable indicators to convince especially the people of the Arab world who some political analysts and many people in the world believe that the hitherto undemocratic regimes in the region were supported by their people and that there were no reliable indicators to convince them otherwise.

According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, on February 15, 2011, inspired by revolts in other Arab countries, especially Tunisia and Egypt, anti-government rallies were held in Bengahzi, Libya, by protesters angered by the arrest of human rights lawyer, Fethi Tarbel, which subsequently spread to other cities, leading to escalating clashes between security forces and anti- Gaddafi rebels. These protests led to the revolution that ousted Gaddafi’s 42 year reign and since then, protests have been an integral part of the political instability in that country with the people embarking on it at the slightest opportunity that presents itself.

This presupposes that the spark of protest by the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi on 17 December, 2010 in Tunisia (BBC News January 5, 2011) that spread to Bengahzi in Libya among other places in the Arab world beginning on Tuesday 15 February, 2011 and the underlying demand in the demonstrations has been defined as changing the undemocratic system irrespective of the adduced reasons of unemployment, food inflation, corruption and poor living conditions among others (Business Anti-Corruption Portal, 2014). This thus explains the use of ash-sha’b yurid isqat an-niz am (the people want to bring down the regime) as the major slogan of the demonstrators in the Arab world (Abulot, 2011). Of course, as it was expected, the Bengahzi protest escalated into a rebellion that spread across Libya with the forces opposing Gaddafi establishing an interim governing body, the National Transitional Council. Gaddafi’s 42-year regime was eventually toppled by rebel forces on August 23, 2011, after he was captured and killed in Sirte on October 20, 2011 (Barker, 2011). The fall of the Gaddafi’s regime has preceded a chain of events that have culminated into the hopelessly more than quadruple fragmented competing forces that have dominated the political landscape backed by military campaigns in the once stable strategically positioned Libya vis-à-vis Europe.

Coup d’état as an index of political instability has been attempted three times since the fall of the Gaddafi regime with the first been on October 10, 2013, when a group of members of the General National Congress attempted to take control of the country from Libyan Prime Minister, Ali Zeidan, by kidnapping him, though he was released several hours later after a pro-government militia stormed the site where he was being held (BBC News October 11, 2013). The year 2014 recorded two coup d’état attempts in February and May by forces loyal to Maj. Gen. Khalifa Belqasim Hafter, the commander of Libyan Ground Forces (Abdul-Wahab, 2014).

Between 2011 and 2018, there were major changes in government in Libya. After the overthrow of Gaddafi in 2011, the National Transition Council which took the reins of power handed it over to the General National Congress in August, 2012, after being hesitant to do so, which led to clashes between former rebel forces in Benghazi (BBC News September 3, 2018). The General National Congress which was supposed to hand over power to the House of Representatives in 2014 refused to disband, which was greeted by protests in February, 2014, but

148

Libya’s Political Instability and Migration Crisis in Europe without any effect as the General National Congress still operated in Tripoli while the House of Representatives operated in Toruk. In June, 2014, Prime Minister Maiteg resigned after the Supreme Court ruled his appointment illegal. In January, 2016, the UN announced a new Tunisian based interim government but neither Toruk nor Tripoli parliaments agreed to recognize its authority. Consequently, Libya became subjected to four governments as follows: (1) Government of National Accord which is headed by Fayez al-Sarra (2) Libyan National Army, headed by Khalifa Hafter (3) House of Representatives, headed by Aguila Saleh Issa and (4) the Council of State headed by Khalid al-Mishri (BBC News May 29, 2018).

The struggle for the control of power in Libya has not gone without assassinations and kidnappings as indices of political instability. Though there are no comprehensive official figures, the Human Rights Watch (2013) indicates that it had investigated and documented killings of 51 victims of apparent political assassinations and added that though the actual number was probably higher. The documented cases do not include the number of officers and members of the security forces assassinated during the 2011 uprising against Gaddafi, and it is limited to Eastern Libya since the toppling of Gaddafi. Gall (2014) avers that more than 100 prominent figures, senior security officials, judges and political activists were assassinated in the last two years and added that the wave of killings decimated local leadership and paralyzed the government and security forces. According to Daw, El-Bouzedi and Zau (2015), between February 2011 and February 2012, a total of 21, 470 (0.5%) persons were killed, 19, 700 (0.47%) injured and 435, 000 (10.33%) displaced.

Impact of Libya’s Political Instability on Migration crisis in Europe

The flood of migrants to Europe in recent years is, no doubt, not unconnected with the political instability in Libya which is geo-strategically positioned vis-à-vis Europe. The political instability in Libya which is sequel to the fall of the Gaddafi’s regime has had serious security impact on the people of Libya. The escalated activities of about 1,700 militia groups that are vying for the control of power have made the security situation in the country precarious. Wehrey (2017) also attest to this when he avers that “the main driver of insecurity in Libya is the collapse of the already fragile institutions and social pacts after the 2011 revolution and more importantly, the inequitable distribution of economic resources.” This, Wehrey further notes, has rippled across the country, out to Libya’s northern neighbours like Tunisia and to the shores of southern Europe.

The impact of the precarious security situation in Libya on migration crisis in Europe is that it has led to the collapse of governance structures and smuggling groups in Libya have exploited this to the maximum to flood Europe with migrants. As the BBC News July 7, 2018 has noted, unlike Turkey which has stemmed the flow of migrants by agreeing to take back Syrians who reach the Greek islands in exchange for huge financial package, Libya’s weak internationally recognized government has rejected a European Union proposal to set up “reception centers” for African migrants while European states consider their asylum applications. Though Libyan Deputy Prime Minister, Ahmed Maiteeq, explains that the rejection of the proposal is because of its inconsistency with Libyan laws, there is no gain saying that the breakdown of law and order in Libya, where a host of rival militias are largely making huge amounts of money from the migrant trade, would not have allowed the proposal to succeed even if it was accepted. A similar proposal had achieved huge successes in Libya when the security situation in the country was very robust under Gaddafi. Gaddafi had signed a “friendship” agreement with then-Italian Prime Minister,

149

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Silvio Berlusconi, in August, 2008, in a deal which saw his regime tightening border controls including border joint maritime patrols in exchange for Italy pledging $5bn in compensation for colonial-era crimes (BBC News July 7, 2018). The deal, according to Human Rights Watch, as cited in Bredeloup and Pliez, (2011, p.12), “led to a sharp decline in the number of people trying to reach Europe by boat from 37, 000 in 2008 to 3, 200 in the first seven months after joint patrols started in 2009” without any corresponding detention and maltreatment of thousands of migrants on Libyan’s shores.

The same feat can hardly be achieved in today’s Libya, at least at present where Pike (2019) holds that as at 2015, the whole Libyan coastguard had two ageing 25-meter tug boats and a few small fast boats to contend with the many smugglers and traffickers in Libya’s over 1, 100 miles coastline with just a 1, 000 men in the coastguard with a ratio of spread of 0.90 soldier per mile. Pike (2019) further states that the coastguards were badly paid and not very well organized. A soldier with the coastguard can expect less than 1,000 Libyan dinars at the end of the month. This is less than €500 while the smugglers earn an average profit of €25, 000 a week in a country where the average monthly wage is just €400 (Kemp, 2017). This explains why it is difficult to curb the tide of smuggling migrants to Europe from Libya.

The political instability in Libya has also aggravated food shortage which has led many to the business of smuggling and trafficking of migrants to Europe as a means of livelihoods. Due to the harsh natural environment, agricultural production is very limited in Libya, and even before the pre-revolution years, 80 percent of the population food requirements were imported and this was made possible because Libya was one of the world’s most prolific oil producing nations that maintained large trade surpluses (World Food Programme, 2018). As such, the cost of food at household level was offset to some extent by a welfare state that offered free education and health care. As the WFP (2018) notes, the country, however, has a trade deficit and is engrossed in political instability

The economy of Libya depends primarily upon revenues from the petroleum sector which, according to Annual Statistical Bulletin, as cited in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), (2019), represents over 95 percent of export earnings and 60 percent of GDP. These oil revenues and small populations (6.470 million, OPEC, 2019) have given Libya one of the highest nominal per capita GDP (US$ 9, 986.274 Billion in 2017, IMF, 2018) in Africa. This however has not translated into improved living conditions of Libyans as poverty is permeated in Libya as it has a total poverty headcount ratio of 27.90 percent (Human Development Report, 2018). Though oil production in 2017 reached a five-year high, driving GDP growth, with daily average production rising to 879,000 barrels per day, that however, have remained below the average pre- revolution highs of 1.6 million barrels per day.

The political instability in Libya has also not allowed for the creation of jobs and as such the prevalence of unemployment in the country was at the rate of 17.70 percent in the year 2017 (Trading Economics, 2019). The Libyan dinar has lost much of its value since 2014 and the resulting gap between official and black market exchange rates has spurred the growth of a shadow economy coupled with scarcity of food items which led to increase in prices thereby shooting up inflation to 27.988 percent ranking 6th in the whole world in 2017 (IMF, 2018).

150

Libya’s Political Instability and Migration Crisis in Europe

The impact of the foregoing developments on the Libyan people is that the political instability has impoverished the people and the drive to survive has pushed many of them to engage into smuggling and trafficking of migrants to Europe. Libya being strategically and geopolitically located vis-à-vis Europe and which has long been a hub of migrants to Europe by boat via the central Mediterranean Sea route, though hitherto controlled by the Gaddafi’s regime, has had the wall separating the migrants collapsed by the persistent political instability which began in 2011. This thus laid bare Libya’s shores and coastal borders for thousands of young Africans who have ever been desirous to satisfy their insatiable quest for adventure and or fleeing from conflicts to embark on the arduous journey to Europe which has resulted in the migration crisis in Europe.

The European Commission (2017) and IOM (2018) have indicated that between 2011 and 2018, there were 764, 403 irregular migrants Sea arrivals in Italy, while over the same period, there were 17, 516 deaths at Sea caused by real shipwrecks, purposeful disabling of ships in order to solicit rescue, as well as lack of assistance. As graphically presented in table 2 and figure 2 below, European countries that have coastal borders at the Mediterranean Sea, especially Italy, started recording above 100, 000 thresholds of migrants in Europe per year when the Libyan political instability began in 2011. The years before 2011 never saw such numbers of migrants arrive Europe as it is the case in the post-Gaddafi era. The BBC News July 7, 2018 indicates that 130, 921 people left Libyan shores between 2003 and 2010, an average of 18, 703 a year. This is more than five times less the average distribution of the figures from 2011 to 2018. Though other reasons could be advanced for these minimal migrants arrivals in Europe, it was the period when the Political Stability Index Score of Libya was relatively strong. As shown in table 1 and figure 1 below, the Political Stability Index Score of Libya was 0.12, 0.36, 0.45, 0.36, 0.75, 0.81, 0.83 and 0.03 with an average score points of -0.03 for 2003 and -0.05 for 2005 to 2008 and -0.06 for 2009 and 2010 with a corresponding rank of 98th, 77th, 72nd, 81st, 52nd, 47th, 41st and 98th in the years 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively.

151

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Table 1: Libya’s Political Stability Index 2003-2017

INDEX AVERAGE SCORE YEAR SCORE RANK POINT 2003 0.12 98 -0.03 2004 0.36 77 -0.05 2005 0.45 72 -0.05 2006 0.36 81 -0.05 2007 0.75 52 -0.05 2008 0.81 47 -0.05 2009 0.83 41 -0.06 2010 0.03 98 -0.06 2011 -1.29 171 -0.06 2012 -1.59 181 -0.06 2013 -1.84 186 -0.05 2014 -2.35 187 -0.05 2015 -2.20 189 -0.05 2016 -2.28 188 -0.05 2017 -2.33 190 -0.05 Source: The Global Political Economy (2019) as compiled by the authors

It is instructive to note that Libya had also initiated harsh migration policies and created internment camps for hundreds of migrants waiting to be expelled after 130 sub-Saharan migrants died during anti-African riots in Tripoli and Zawiya in the year 2000, which also helped stem the tide of migrants Sea crossings (Bredeloup & Pliez, 2011). This led to a number of subsequent departures, whether voluntary or not, allegedly amounted to many thousands of people who went back to Niger, Chad, Sudan, Nigeria and Ghana. Though Libya’s image on the international scene was stained and the trauma of the heinous crimes against those migrants is believed to still subsist with sub-Saharan migrants living in the country, it began the first step towards tougher control measures for migrants living in the then politically stable Libya.

Figure 1: Libya’s Political Stability Index Score 2003-2017 Source: The Global Political Economy (2019) as compiled by the authors

152

Libya’s Political Instability and Migration Crisis in Europe

This development, coupled with other subsequent policies, especially the August, 2008, “friendship” agreement between Libya’s Gaddafi and Italy’s Berlusconi, crashed down the number of people trying to reach Europe by boat from 37, 000 in 2008 to 3, 200 in the first seven months after joint patrols started in 2009 (Bredeloup & Pliez, 2011). This agreement checked the numbers of migrants’ Sea arrivals in Europe via the central Mediterranean route where Libya is the hub of migrant Sea crossing during the period before the political instability began in 2011.

Table 1 and figure 2 indicate a breakdown and trend of migrants Sea arrivals in Italy and deaths at Sea since 2003 which shows that, there were 62,692 migrants arrivals in Italy and 1, 822 deaths at Sea in the year 2011. Libya’s Political Stability Index Score in 2011 was -1.29 which ranked her 171st country in the world. Thus, no reason can better explain the rise in migrants Sea arrivals in Europe more than the political instability that first began as violent protest inspired by revolts in other Arab countries, especially neighbouring Egypt and Tunisia, leading to escalating clashes between security forces and anti-Gaddafi rebels which culminated into the ouster, capture and murder of Gaddafi on October 20, 2011(El Gamal and Gaynor, 2011).

The year 2012 recorded a decrease in the number of irregular migrants’ arrivals in Italy and deaths at Sea as there were 13, 267 arrivals and 283 deaths at Sea representing a drop of 78.83 percent and 84.46 percent respectively. The Political Stability Index Score of Libya in that year was -1.59 occupying 181 position in the world. Though the political stability index was weak, the decrease is explained in the context of the handover of power to the General National Congress, which was elected in July 2012, indicating a re-establishment of governance structure in Libya.

In 2013, the Political Stability Index Score of Libya grew weaker to -1.84 thereby occupying 186th position in the world. As a result, the figures rose to 42, 925, representing 223.54 percent for migrants’ arrivals in Italy and 644, representing 127.56 percent for deaths at Sea in the year 2013. The murder of the then US ambassador and three other Americans when Islamist militants, including Ansar al-Sharia, stormed the consulate in Benghazi in September, 2012, and the blockade of petroleum facilities and oil export terminals by militias probably heightened the political instability in the country in the year 2013 (CNN News September 13, 2012; BBC News September 3, 2018).

The year 2014 saw Libya’s Political Stability Index Score further grew weaker to -2.35, ranking her 187th in the world and as a result, the figures also soared further to 170, 100, representing 296.27 percent increase in the number of migrants’ arrivals in Italy and 3, 161, representing 390.83 percent deaths at Sea. The weak Political Stability Index Score with a corresponding swell in migrants Sea arrivals and deaths at Sea in 2014 was not unconnected with the chain of events that culminated into what is today referred to as the second Libyan civil war. The major events that characterized the year 2014 in Libya which led to the weak Political Stability Index with attendant soar in migrants Sea arrivals and deaths at Sea in Europe were the eruption of protests in response to the General National Congress refusal to disband after its mandate expired, which was followed by the renegade of general Khalifa Haftar by the Libyan National Army and launching of military assault, including airstrikes against militant Islamist groups in Benghazi and, as well, trying to seize parliament building ( CNN News May 20, 2014). As if that was not enough turmoil, fighting broke out between forces loyal to the then outgoing GNC and the new parliament which was earlier elected. The continued fighting deteriorated the security

153

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 situation and precipitated the pulling out of all UN staff, shutting down of all embassies and evacuation of diplomats and most foreigners in Libya.

Total: 2 Migrants arrivals in Italy by Sea and deaths in the Mediterranean 2003 - 2018 Year Arrivals Dead/Missing at Sea 2003 – 2010 130, 921 - 2011 62, 692 1, 822 2012 13, 267 283 2013 42, 925 644 2014 170, 100 3, 161 2015 153, 842 2, 869 2016 181, 436 4, 579 2017 118, 019 2, 852 2018 23, 122 1, 306 Total 896, 324 17, 516 Source: European Commission (2017) &IOM (2018) as compiled by the authors

In 2015, the Political Stability Index Score of Libya grew weaker to -2.20 occupying 189th position in the world. In spite of this, there was a slight decrease in the number of migrants’ arrivals in Italy and deaths at Sea as there were 153, 842 representing 9.55 percent drop for the former and 2, 869, representing 9.23 percent for the later. The drop in the number of migrants Sea arrivals in Italy and deaths at Sea may not be unrelated with the partial ceasefire declared by the Libyan army and Tripoli-based militia alliance after intense talks in Geneva (BBC News September 3, 2018). However, the year 2016 recorded an all time high as available data on migrants’ Sea arrivals in Italy and deaths at Sea as there were 181, 436, representing 17.93 percent increase while deaths at Sea were 4, 579, representing 59.60 percent increase. The Political Stability Index Score of the country in that year was -2.28 with a ranking of 188, which indicated that the increase was in response to the weak political stability. The weak political stability with its attendant unprecedented flood of migrants Sea arrivals in Italy and deaths at Sea in 2016 was not unconnected with the refusal to recognize the authority of the UN announced Tunisia-based interim government for Libya by the Tobruk and Tripoli parliaments, the heightened Islamic State group attacks on Ras Lanuf oil terminal and threats to move on to Brega and Tobruk (Al-Warfalli, 2016; Aljazeera News January 4, 2016). The engagement of the Libyan National Army of General Khalifa Haftar in seizing key oil export terminals in the east as well as Pro-government forces ouster of Islamic State militants from the coastal town of Sirte, which they had seized 18 months previously (BBC News June 23, 2016) all deteriorated the already politically unstable Libya, thus leading to the flooding of migrants to Europe.

154

Libya’s Political Instability and Migration Crisis in Europe

Figure 2: Trends of Migrants Arrival in Italy by Sea in the Mediterranean (2003-2018) Source: European Commission (2017) &IOM (2018) as compiled by the authors

The Political Stability Index Score of Libya in the year 2017 grew further weaker with a score of -2.33 which ranked the country 190th in the world. However, the figures fell to 118, 019 for migrants’ Sea arrivals representing 34.95 percent dwindle and 2, 852 deaths at Sea representing 37.71 percent drop. Though the EU’s Trust Fund for Africa was created in 2015 which saw nearly €4 billion spent across 26 countries along the migration route to Europe, the deal with Libyan coastguard was signed in February, 2017, which the European Union poured, and is still pouring, tens of millions of Euros into the Libyan coastguard in a bid to prevent those crossing the Mediterranean ending up in Europe. This, thus, explains the decline of the figures in 2017.

Though the Political Stability Index Score of the country is not available for 2018, the indices have not changed, and so it is believed that when released, it will not be anything stronger than the preceding year. That notwithstanding, an all time and sharp decline in the number of irregular migrants arrivals in Italy and deaths at Sea since the political instability in Libya began eight years ago was so far recorded in 2018, 23,122 migrants arrivals were recorded, representing 80.40 percent drop, while there were 1, 306 recorded deaths at the Sea, representing 54.20 percent plummet in the year 2018.

As it were in 2017, the sharp fall in migrants Sea arrivals in Italy and deaths at Sea in 2018 is attributed to factors external to Libya, chief among which are the sustained support to the Libyan coastguard by EU’s Trust Fund for Africa and individual European countries which began in 2017. The Libyan coastguard received training from various European countries in addition to supply of equipment which included diving suits, ambulances, communication equipment, night vision gear, submarines, and ships to assist in reconnaissance effort (The Independent April 26, 2017). The Libyan coastguards were also assisted with broadcaster ARD reporting vessels equipped with machineguns alongside 130 boats of varying sizes and capacities (Libyan Express May 16, 2019). Ross Kemp’s documentary released in late 2017 titled “Libya’s Migrants’ Hell” which exposed

155

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 and drew the world’s attention to the modern day slavery and humanitarian crisis of migrants crossing the central Mediterranean Sea also played a significant role in scaling down the number of migrants Sea arrivals in Europe in 2018. Though the data indicate that there has been significant drop in migrants arrivals in Italy from Libya beginning in 2017 and especially in 2018, a total of 764, 403 people crossed to Italy via the central Mediterranean between 2011 and 2018, an average of 109, 200.43 a year over the seven year period surpassing the 100, 000 threshold allowed for in the whole of Europe in a year. This is against the 130, 921 people (BBC News July 7, 2018) that left the Libyan shore between 2003 and 2010, an average of 18, 703 a year over the same seven- year period.

Conclusion

It is palpable from the foregoing analysis that there is actually political instability in Libya which was triggered in 2011, though the yearly reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit about the state of democracy in countries of the world dates the phenomenon back to 2006. Before the political instability in Libya, the country had, to a large extent, secured its borders and entered into agreements with some European countries that stemmed the tide of irregular migration to Europe via the central Mediterranean Sea. From 2011 to date, Libya’s Political Stability Index Score grew weaker from 0.83 ranking 41st in the world in 2009 to -2.33 ranking 190th in the world in 2017 thus collapsing the walls that hitherto held back migrants from crossing the central Mediterranean Sea to Europe, especially Italy.

The major take home point of this paper is that the political instability in Libya is culpable for the migration crisis in Europe. Of course, the migration crisis in Europe is not likely to end soon if the political instability in Libya is not addressed given the undeniable fact that Libya is the core country of departure of migrants smuggled along the central Mediterranean route. The fall in the figures in the past two years which is sequel to the signed deal between the EU and Libya’s coastguard which saw the later received trainings and equipment among others cannot be said to be the end of the crisis as a result of the sudden deterioration of a chronic situation which does not mean the end of irregular migration via the central Mediterranean and its causes, nor of the circumstances that made migratory pressures raging. It is just a desperate and more of a palliative measure to a desperate situation of migrants’ crisis in Europe which has rather created another crisis as thousands of migrants rescued by the Libyan coastguards are held in detention centers where conditions have been described by the United Nations as inhuman and squalid.

References

Abdul-Wahab, A. (2014). General Hafter announces coup; politicians react with scorn, older his arrest – Available at www.libyaherald.com/2014/02/19/general-hafter-announces-coup- politicians-react-with-scorn-order-his-arrest/#axzz2tIQINLHq

Abulot, U. (2011). What is the Arab Third Estate? – Available at https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/832628

Alesina, A. et al, (1996). Political and Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Growth 1 (1) 155-194

156

Libya’s Political Instability and Migration Crisis in Europe

Aljazeera News January 4, 2016- Available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/isil- attack-libyan-oil-terminal-repored

Al-Warfalli, A. (2016). Libya’s recognized parliament reject U.N.-backed unity Government – Available at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libyan-security-politics-idUSKCN0V31Q0

Bailey, T. (2015). The Impact of Migration on sender Countries- Available at https://www.worldfinance.com/infrastructure-investment/government-policy/the-impact- of-migration-on-sender-countries

Barker, A. (2011). Time running out for Cornered Gaddafi – Available at https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2011-02-24/time-runing-out-forcornered- gaddafi/1955842?pfmredir=sm

BBC News January 5, 2011 - Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12120228

BBC News October 11, 2013 – Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-24496357

BBC News June 23, 2016 – Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36604131

BBC News May 25, 2017 – Available at https://www.bbc.com/newsworld-africa-24472322

BBC News May 29, 2018 – Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44289516

BBC News July 7, 2018 - Available at https://www.google.com/ampls/www.bbc/news/amp/world-africa-44709974

BBC News September 3, 2018 – Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13755445

BP Statistical Review of World Energy, (2018) – Available at https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy- economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf

Bredeloup, S. and Pliez, O. (2011). The Libyan Migration Corridor – Available at https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/16213/EU- US%20Immigration%20Systems%202011%20-%2003.pdf?sequence=1 Business Anti-Corruption Portal, (2014), A Snap short of Corruption in Tunia – Available at https://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/tunia/

CNN News September 13, 2012 – Available at https://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/12/world/africa/libya-attack-jihadists/index.html?no- st=9999999999

157

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

CNN News May 20, 2014 Available at - https://edition.cnn.com/2014/05/20/world/africa/libya- violence/?no-st=9999999999

Collins Dictionary – Available at https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/crisis

Daw, M.A., El-Bouzedi, A. and Zau, A.A. (2015). Libyan Armed Conflict 2011: Mortality, injury and population displacement, African Journal of Emergency Medicine 5(3) pp. 101- 107

El Gamal, R. and Gaynor, T. (2011). Gaddafi killed as Libya’s revolt claims hometown – Available at https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idFJOE79J09020111020

Encyclopedia Britannica – Available at https://www.britannica.cm/topic/human-migration

Encyclopedia Britannica - Available at https://www.britennica.com/event/Libya-Revolt-of-2011

European Commission (2017), Irregular Migration via the Central Mediterranean: From Emergency Responses to Systemic Solutions - Available at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/irregular-migration-central-mediterranean_en

Frykberg, M. (2019). Thousands killed, injured or kidnapped in 2018 Libyan Violence – Available at https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/thousands-killed-injured-or-kidnapped-in- 2018-liyan-violence-19274507

Gale, T. (2008). Political Instability, Indices Of – available at https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/applied-and-social-sciences- magazines/political-instability-indices

Gall, C. (2014). Political Killings still plaguing post-Qaddafi Libya – Available at https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/worl/africa/political-killings-still-plauging-post- qaddafi-libya.html

Human Development Report (2018), Statistical Update Briefing note for Countries on the 2018 Statistical Updates: Libya – Available at http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/LBY.pdf

Human Right Watch (2013), Libya: Wave of Political Assassinations – Available at https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/08/08/libya-wave-poltical-assassinations

IMF, (2018), Report for selected Countries and Subjects – Available at https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=74&pr.y=1 3&sy=1980&ey=2023&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=672&s=NGDP_RP CH,PPPGDP,PPPPC,PCPIPCH,GGXONLB_NGDP&grp=0&a=

158

Libya’s Political Instability and Migration Crisis in Europe

IOM, (2011) Glossary on Migration, International Migration Law Series No. 25, 2011 – Available at https://www.iom.int/key-migration-terms

IOM (2018), Total Arrivals by Sea and Deaths in the Mediterranean 2017-2018 - Available at https://www.iom.int/sites/default/files/press_release/pictures/medup_14_12_18-table1.jpg

IOM, Displacement Tracking Matrix (2018), Internal Displacement in Libya 2016 in View – Available at https://displacement.iom.int/system/tdf/reports/internal%20Displacement%20in%20Libya %202016%20in%Review%20-%20DTM%20Libya.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=1572

Jong-A-Pin, R. (2008). Essays on Political Instability: Measurement, causes and consequences, Enschede: Printers/pskamp B.V, Enschede, The Netherlands.

Kemp, R. (2017). Libya’s Migrant Hell/Documentary – Available at https://documentayheaven.com/ross-kemp-libyas-migrant-hell/

Libyan Express May 16, 2017 – Available at https://www.libyanexpress.com/italy-hands-over- four-patrol-boats-to-libyan-navy/

Maleki, A. (2011). Uprising in the Region and ignored indicators – http://www.payvand.com/news/11feb/1080.html

OPEC, (2019), Libya Facts and Figures – Available at https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/166.htm

Peterson Institute for International Economics (2019) What is Globalization? - Available at https://piie.com/microsites/globalization/what-is-globalization.html

Pike, J. (2019). Libyan Coast Guard – Available at https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/coastguard.htm#15530887274102

Slanders, D. (1981). Patterns of Political Instability, the Macmillan press Ltd, London, United Kingdom

The Independent April 26, 2017 – Available at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-crisis-migrants-libya- government-ships-coastguard-request-eu-list-mediterranean-machine-guns-a7704171.html

Trading Economics, (2019), Libya Unemployment Rate – Available at https://tradingeconomics.com/libya/unemployment-rate

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2017 Revision (United Nations database,

159

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2017) – Available at https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/esimates2/docs/Migrat ionStockDocumentation_2017.pdf

Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948 - Available at https://www.ohchr.org/EN/UDHR/Documents/UDHR_Translations/eng.pdf

Wehrey, F. (2017). Insecurity and Governance challenges in Southern Libya – Available at https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/30/insecurity-and-governance-challenges-in- southern-libya-pub-68451

World Food Programme, (2018). Libya – Available at https://www1wfp.org/countries/libya

160

Godfather Politics and Democratic Sustenance in Nigeria

Godfather Politics and Democratic Sustenance in Nigeria 1Luka Ruth Caleb (PhD), 1Amina Bala Saleh and 1Makama Chunku Ayuba

1Department of Political Science, Nasarawa State University, Keffi. [email protected],[email protected] and makamachunku [email protected].

Abstract An emergent feature of the Nigerian democracy is the politics of godfatherism in the electoral process. In Nigeria today, one can hardly win an election without a godfather. Godfathers see politics as an opportunity to invest in their Godsons, with the aim of getting not only their money back but also making profits; it has now become a source of business. Politics has been monetized in Nigeria, credibility no longer counts, citizens with the highest bids gets party nominations, secure tickets and win elections. Most of the credible candidates do not have huge amount of money to purchase party nomination forms. This links us to Godfatherism where those who are financially handicapped are sponsored by some people called the Godfathers to clinch electoral victory. The paper gives an overview of godfather politics and democratic sustenance in Nigeria. The paper examined the activities of godfathers in Nigeria and the effects associated with them. The study adopted the secondary sources of data collection while the elite theory was utilized as the theoretical underpinning. The findings of the study reveal that godfathers truncate democracy as they deprive the people from voting for credible and competent candidates. The paper among others, recommends that there should be orientation and enlightenment by government agencies saddled with the mandate such as National Orientation Agency (NOA) on the dangers and consequences of political godfatherism. Keywords: Politics, Godfathers, Patron-client, Sustenance and Democracy. Introduction In Nigeria today, one can hardly secure a political office, be it elective or appointive without a godfather. Godfatherism is one of the most popular practices in contemporary Nigerian politics. The phenomenon of godfatherism has become a plague in the body of Nigerian politics. There is an emerging trend in Nigeria which indicates that an intending contestant must have and depend on a godfather with the requisite wealth and power to get him into elective office. The implication is that contestants no longer rely on their popularity among the electorates but on their chosen godfathers to help them secure electoral victories. Godfatherism is not a new phenomenonin the Nigerian politics, it has only assumed a new dimension in the democratic dispensations under the fourth republic. This could be attributed to the fact that the Nigerian economy is still at the primitive stage of capital accumulation by the renters and commissioned agents with little or no productive capacities. Politics therefore is the only means of reaching out at the state resources. This phenomenon has trampled on the basic principle of democracy and has encouraged the failure of necessary structures and institutions to act decisively at correcting the abnormalities. Godfatherism in Nigeria is therefore a manifestation of a societal decay; it has become a pestilence to the practice of true democracy in Nigeria (Edigin, 2010). Godfatherism has become a factor in Nigerian politics such that very few politicians can achieve success without the stalwart support of godfathers. In Nigeria, the desire of individuals to rule at all cost has sold political leadership to the highest bidders, as whopping sums of money are needed for electoral manipulation. Therefore, desperate politicians who wish to win elections usually seek after

161

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 godfathers. The implication of this in Nigerian politics is that, the country is yet to make appreciable progress in transparent governance because godfathers usually create setback, which hinders democratic consolidation in Nigeria (Edigin, 2010). One of the prevailing fundamental and sensitive issues in Nigerian politics that cannot be ignored is godfatherism. The political relationship under successive governments in Nigeria is a reflection of the international economic order, which facilitates the pursuit or regime change by avaricious godfathers whose major pre-occupation is to perpetuate their hegemonic political influence for personal interest and aggrandizement (Osuntokun, 2003). Godfatherism has undoubtedly affected democratic sustenance in Nigeria.

Conceptual Clarification

The Concept of Godfatherism

The concept of godfatherism is synonymous to mentoring, benevolence, support and sponsoring. In a political setting, the concept is an ideology that is championed on the belief that certain individuals possess considerable means to unilaterally determine who get a party’s ticket to run for an election and who wins in the electoral contest. To Adeoye (2009), it is a term used to describe the relationship between a godfather and godson. A godfather is a kingmaker, boss, mentor, and principal, while godson is the beneficiary and recipient of the legacy of a godfather. A godfather is someone who has built unimaginable respect and followers (voters) in the community, and possess a well organised political platform, and general acceptance from electorate that could secure victory for candidates of his choice (Bala and Tyoden, 1987). It comprises of a coalition of strong socioeconomic and political elites that share similar value system, and under an organized structure. In most cases, there are always godfathers who control the affairs of the mafia. Godfathers are powerful individuals who determine who, what, when and how a person gains access in the corridors of power. Many godfathers in the present-day Nigeria operate like the mafia by displaying similar violent scheming and aggressive politicking, coupled with manipulating devices of having their way by any means. They rely on Machiavelli’s slogan of “the end justify the means”. In the views of Bassey and Enetak (2008), godfatherism connote the power and influence of people who are politically relevant in deciding who gets nominated to contest elections and who eventually wins the election. Godfathers are highly politically mobile and can sway political support to the political party and/or candidate behind which they throw their political weight. Those that play godfatherism are known as godfathers while those who benefit from their benevolence are known as godson. Kolawole (2004) sees godfatherism as an institution of political king-making through which certain political office holders of tenuous political clout come into power. Hence, it is a relationship based on political surrogacy involving financial and moral assistance where the godfather is the major donor and the godson the primary receiver. However, as the relationship progresses, the godfather stands to reap his investment. It can therefore be described as a relationship based on "give and take." Be that as it may, it is important to note that this relationship is not fixed. As a matter of fact, it breaks over time as a result of the contradictions inherent in godfatherism. Godfatherism in its simplest form can be generally seen as a practice which entails the sustenance of a kind of social and political relationships in which the subordinate looks onto the superior for the propagation and fulfilment of certain roles, desires and interactions which binds both together or in which both have equal stake but with the superior determining what the subordinate gets in the process (Williams, 2004). According to him, this view presents godfatherism as a relationship between a superior and a subordinate in which the superior has some level of influence over the

162

Godfather Politics and Democratic Sustenance in Nigeria subordinate as a result of his superior status. In other words, godfatherism connotes a mutual relationship between individuals in which one is superior and the other a subordinate who relies on his superior partner for favours to help him attain his life goals. The conventional civic sense of godfatherism, which is inclined to posturing a credible candidate and granting him a mentoral support to enhance resulted oriented governance, is however opposed by entrepreneurial sense of politics. It is a term now reserved for God forsaken criminals who will go to any length to achieve their set goals of wielding political power including assault, intimidation, warning flogging and sometimes assassinations. Godfatherism is one of the pandemic that is endangering our polity. It compels elected official to siphon funds made for public infrastructural development to private accounts, of their godfathers, thereby jeopardizing and mortgaging the future of the citizens. Politics The word politics is derived from the Greek word ‘Polis’ which means city state. The Greek notion of polis is the process by which men debate matters concerning the polis and take actions in an attempt to realize the public interest and common goods. In recent times, the term politics has come to mean different things. For instance, Appaddorai (1974) defines politics as the science concerned with the state and of the conditions essential to its existence and development. According to Easton (1965), politics is the authoritative allocation of values in the society. Also, politics is seen as the art of influencing, manipulating and controlling others. On his part, Lasswell (1930) defines politics as, who gets what, when and how. To Mao (1965), politics is war without bloodshed. Generally speaking, politics is manipulation, struggle and conflict resolution in the society. Democracy The word democracy is derived from two Greek words ‘demos’ and ‘kratia’, the former meaning the people’ and the latter meaning ‘jule of’. Appadorai (1974) opined that democracy is a system of government under which the people exercise the governing power either directly or through representative, periodically elected by themselves. It is a form of government in which the masses of the population posses the right to share in the exercise of sovereign power. There are, however, two types of democracy, which are direct and indirect democracy. In direct democracy, the people themselves express their will on public affairs by themselves such as was the practice in the Greek city state and Igbo pre-colonial societies. This was possible due to limited number of people and as such the whole society could participate in decision making directly. The second one is the indirect democracy by which the will of the state is not formulated and expressed by the people themselves but by proxy or representatives to whom they delegate the power of deliberation and decision making. Abraham Lincoln, former President of the United States of America, defined democracy as the government of the people, by the people and for the people. Democracy means freedom of choice, the right to participate in the state affairs without restriction. Some of the characteristics of democracy are; periodic election, free press, existence of opposition party, civil society and pressure groups, independence of the judiciary, separation of powers/checks and balances, application of rule of law, accountability and so on.

Theoretical Framework This paper is anchored on the Elite theory. The classical elite theory of Pareto, Mosca and Michels will be the framework for this paper. The major assumptions of elite theory are as follows: i. In every society, there is a minority that governs the society. This minority belongs to the elite. According to Pareto minority rule is the reality in all societies whether simple or complex, developing or developed.

163

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

ii. Major decisions which influence society is taken by the elite, and these decisions more often than not, are beneficial to the elite class rather than the generality of the people or masses. iii. The second class, the masses, is controlled and manipulated by the elites, inertly accepting the distorted information used by the elites to justify their rule. iv. The fundamental changes in the society take place when elite replaces another. Pareto (cited in Ibietan and Ajayi, 2015) calls it “circulation of elites.” According to Pareto, people are ruled by elites, where throughout human history, the continuous replacement of certain elites with another, new elites rise and old elites fall. In his words, “elites or aristocrats do not last. They live or take position in a certain time. History is a graveyard of aristocracies” (Ibietan and Ajayi, 2015). v. The rule by the few minorities is unavoidable in human society and the ruling minority is superior to the mass of the people who lack direction and capacity to govern and thereby require the leadership of elite for guidance.

Criticism of the Elite theory

The elite theory has been criticised on the grounds that: . The notion of elite revolves around power and yet this concept is not well defined by the classical elite theorists and this makes it possible to include in the ruling elites wielders of different sorts of powers and also those who wield no power (Tittenbrun, 2013). . Similarly, Korom (2015) contends that the elite theorists failed to develop a clear-cut elite concept and that most of their arguments were general and lacking concrete substance. . Dahl (1958) criticised the elite theory on the ground that no single elite exercised overall influence on every aspect of decision making. In his work Who Governs? Examine three political issues in New Haven, Connecticut namely: party nominations for local elective offices/ positions, public education and urban development. He found that no single elite operating behind the scene, but rather many lines of cleavages and politicians who were responsible to the desires of the citizenry. . It is too simplistic because it fails to differentiate between different political systems. It assumes that all political systems are the same. The genuine differences between democracy and authoritarianism are dismissed. They are all regarded as oligarchy. . The argument that political elites are superior to the masses is simply an assertion. There are no objective criteria being provided by which we can measure the superior quality of the elites.

Relevance of the Elite Theory The choice of elite theory is rooted on the fact that public policy reflects the values and preferences of the elite, rather than the demand of the masses. Robert (2006) argued that elite theory is based on the idea that society is divided into the selected few, who are capable and have the supreme leadership and the vast masses that are to be ruled. Varma (1975) contends that every society is ruled by the minority that posses some qualities, charisma and sagacity; these qualities are necessary for its ascension to full social and political power. The elite consist of those successful persons who rise to the top in every occupation and strata of the society. The relevance and implication of of the elite theory as it is applicable to this work is that one could understand

164

Godfather Politics and Democratic Sustenance in Nigeria that the elite (godfathers) in Nigeria select candidate and manipulate the voters through propaganda and their resources, public policy do not necessary serve public interest. Elite theory also situates governance of the state in the hands of the elite (godfathers and their godsons) as the mechanism for majority control and accountability do not prevent elite supremacy. The choice and relevance of this theory to this study is justified by the fact that, godfathers themselves are elites. Godfathers are influential people in the society, with their wealth, they push themselves into the political realm, they formulate policies that reflect their personal aggrandizement and idiosyncracy to the detriment of the poor masses in the society and these elites are few but wield enormous power and influence. They work assiduously to sustain the status quo which is their common interest. The implication is that policies of government are conservative and incremental rather than radical and progressive in nature.

Godfather politics and democratic sustenance in Nigeria Although, godfathers appear in many western political studies, the situation is different in Nigeria. The patron/client relationship that popularized the term in Nigerian politics has cultural role among many Nigerians people. It is not a totally new experience in the sociology of the Hausa, Yoruba and Igbo people for people to have one or the other type of godfather. For instance, the word godfather has a local equivalence, in Hausa, Yoruba and Igbo language and these words have been used since the pre-colonial era. A godfather is known among the Hausas as a Maigida (Landlord) or the head of the house hold. A godfather is referred to in Yoruba land as babakekere (the small father), a person of lesser social status that attached himself for support, which could be social or economic. The godfather gets something in return from his godson. According to Temionu (2006), the desire of both negative and positive godfathers is to have strangleholds on supreme leadership. Based on semantic analysis, to govern and to dictate almost the same message without mincing words. Democracy also has an atom of dictatorship. So, every politician is a clever dictator under the shelter of democracy. But civilized politicians who apply high ethical and moral standard to their political practice become real democrats. Godfatherism is an unpronounced global political culture and a complement to democracy. Even in the United States of America where polity is strictly pivoted on democracy, studies have shown that Americas political practice as being propelled by godfatherism. Okoye (2007) has however, noted that godfatherism is a silent feature of electoral politics and governance in Nigeria. This is because the political godfather phenomenon that become a silent feature of electoral politics and governance in Nigeria cannot by any ideological syllogism be convincingly accepted as a feature of democracy. It is contrary to democracy’s warning advocacy that the authority to determine who governs, how and when resides legitimately with the people. Gambo (2006) sees godfatherism as inimical to the growth and substance of democracy through the erosion of the normative elements of democracy. He further stressed the implication of godfatherism for democratic growth and stability is the erosion of the normative element of democracy. In a political system where prescribed electoral rules are frequently floated with impunity, the basis of the citizens’ trust in government is compromised. The consequence, therefore, is first, a critical social capital is lost. When there is no basis of mutual suspicion, misperception of predispositions can easily generate unstable social order. As Godfathers publicly boast of single-handedly fixing people in both elective and appointive offices at the federal, state

165

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 and local government level, ‘‘they are directly communicating the source of citizen’s feelings of lack of political competence and efficacy in the system where there is no effective government’s response to this self confession. According to Ayoade (2006), godfatherism distorts democratic processes in a state, because godfathers obstruct elections. The godfather makes substantial critical government decisions, appointment and is recipient of either major juicy contract or earns inordinate stipends. Godfathers reverse executive decisions. They even issue decrees to the utter embarrassment of their godsons. They traverse the polity as a colossus benefiting from gross anti-democracy. Godfatherism negates all tenets of democracy and has consistently threatened law and order especially in the fourth republic. Gambo (2006) noted that since the inauguration of the fourth republic in 1999, godfathers have emerged in some number of states of the federation. Some of them have been in the field for a longer period than others; however, there are godfathers that exercise overt influence and those that exercise covert influence over their godsons. Be that as it may, states in Nigeria such as Anambra, Oyo, Borno, Kwara, Enugu among others witnessed pronounced influence of godfathers in their politics. In Anambra State, for instance, successive godfathers have exercised overbearing influence over their political godsons. For instance, Chief Mbadinuju had heavy burden of contending with Chief Emeka Offor who sponsored him to win the Anambra State Governorship election in 1999. The governor expended more energy and time struggling to free the resources of the state from the predatory grips of the godfather. The conflict between the governor and his estranged godfather got so pronounced to the extent of crippling the machinery of the state government. Consequently, the state under the embattled Mbadinuju recorded gross deficit of democratic dividends and this generated widespread dissatisfaction with the performance of the state government. The government was voted out of power in the 2003 general election. In 2003, the Peoples’ Democratic Party candidate, Dr. Chris Ngige was supported by Chris Uba, who manipulated the electoral process in favour of his godson. Chris Uba had negotiated the most sinister agreement with Dr. Chris Ngige, his godson. Chris Uba used his influence to have his godson return as the Anambra State Governor. No sooner was Uba’s godson sworn in, then, trouble started over who should propose people for what offices in the state. While Uba wanted the immediate enforcement of the terms of the mutually accepted agreement preceding the election, Dr. Ngige perhaps upon reflection fought back to save the resources of the State for the common good of the people in the state. Uba had wanted to have 10 of his cronies out of the 17 commissioner slot to be appointed by him, when the godson out rightly declined such request, godfather Uba demanded for a sum of three Billion naira as compensation for financing of Ngige’s election, Ngige refused and this was what led to the miss-understanding between the duo which subsequently led to serious political crisis and breaking down of law and order and government properties. According to Ayoade (2006), godfathers do not invest colossal sum that the project require but invest their courage, grass root support, security and political connections as it was the case of Chief Lamidi Ariyibi Adedibu popularly known as the strongman of Ibadan politics. Oyo State is not the case of a benefactor because Adedibu did not invest the colossal sum that the project required. Rashidi Ladoja who eventually became the governor of the state was alleged to have supplied the funds for the project. But Adedibu is a man of tremendous political clout and courage. He has overturned and maintained a formidable grassroot support and he is an astute politician. He has every strong political and security connection as well as access to funds when needed to oil

166

Godfather Politics and Democratic Sustenance in Nigeria his political machinery, he deployed all these resources during the process that resulted in the impeachment of his godson, Senator Rasheedi Ladoja in Oyo State. Gambo (2006) posited that the Godfather fell out with his godson on account of not being loyal to him after having invested much to get him to Oyo State Government house. Adedibu widely reputed as the strong man of Ibadan politics, accepted to play the role of godfather to Ladoja who is not far from him. Adedibu invested heavily on the election of Ladoja so that he can get his money back and even profits, but the aim was defeated, and as such Adedibu had to mobilize the State House of Assembly to impeach Ladoja, his godson. Borno State is another State with the same scenario of godfatherism. Gambo (2006) noted that Borno State experience was an exceptional one because godfathers would always want to cultivate surrogates because godfathers are directly or indirectly saleable to voters or would want to protect themselves from liability. In Borno State, Governor Kachallah who was supported by his godfather, Senator Modu Sheriff was ousted by the latter in 2003 general election. The godfather personally and courageously challenged his godson in a political contest. The Borno experience was an exception because godfathers would always want to cultivate surrogates; Senator Ali Modu Sherif who contested against his godson won the election in Borno State. The Borno experience presents a unique scenario. One possible explanation for this could be that the godson he cultivated in 1999 and supported to win election as governor of Borno State, failed to meet the expectation of the people in terms of delivery of the dividends of democracy. Omodia (2009) maintained that in Kwara State, located in North central of Nigeria which is widely referred to as Saraki dynasty, the phenomenon of godfatherism is deeply entrenched here, and this explains the phenomenon in Kwara State. Hardly can any politician in the state contest and win election without maintaining any form of connection with Dr. Olusola Saraki (Oloye). In 1999, Dr. Olusola Saraki adopted Alhaji Mohammed Lawal as his Godson and made him Governor on the platform of the then All Peoples’ Party (APP). However, towards the twillight of his first term, a fundamental misunderstanding developed between the godson and the godfather. The disagreement continued to a point that anarchy was let loose in the State as 2003 election year was fast approaching and Governor Lawal lost out in the political fray between him and his godfather. In 2003, Saraki crossed over to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on which platform his son, a medical doctor contested for the governorship, Mohammed Lawal became a political orphan as a result of this development and consequently lost the governorship contest to Dr. Bukola Saraki. To show the strength of his political clout in the State, one of Olusola Saraki’s daughter was elected as member of Senate in 2003. It is quite unprecedented in the political history of Nigeria to have biological brother and sister elected as Governor and Senator at the same time. All the people Olusola Saraki installed as Kwara State Governors have disappointed him, and as such, he was advised to bring his son Dr. Bukola Saraki who was a medical practitioner in London (Omodia, 2007). Olusola believed the only person that can protect his interest as Governor in Kwara State was his son Bukola and he asked his son to come to Nigeria to contest for Kwarra State Governorship position. But very unfortunate, Bukola disappointed his father more than any other Governor in Kwara State has done. Olusola died without reconciling with his biological son and godson over who becomes the Kwara State Governor in 2011. Olusola preferred his biological daughter Gbemi Saraki while Bukola preferred Abdullfatah Ahmed.

167

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Jibrin, (2003) holds that there are other States with issues and crisis between godfathers and godsons to the extent of godfathers truncating the second term ambition of their godsons. For example, in a State such as Zamfara, Ahmed Sani Yarima Bakura truncated the second term ambition of Ahmed Shinkafi. In Nasarawa State, Abdullahi Adamu truncated the second term ambition of Aliyu Akwe Doma as Nasarawa State Governor. From the preceding cases, even though they are by no means exhaustive, it is indeed evidently clear that godfatherism is formally establishing itself in Nigeria is democratic process. According to Jibrin (2003), the concept of godfather is formally getting deep into contemporary Nigerian politics. It is obvious that there is no part of Nigeria which can be said to be immune to the phenomenon of Godfatherism, even though there could be some particular regional patterns. Reasons for Godfatherism in Nigerian Democracy i. Godfatherism in Nigerian democracy is said to be propelled by some reasons that are political and socio-economic in nature. According to Olufemi (2008), illiteracy is one of the majorreasons that enhances godfatherism because most citizens are illiterate that can neither read nor write thereby capitalizing on their ignorance by the elites.

ii. Nnamani (2003) noted that ignorance contributes to the emergence of godfatherism because poverty and ignorance make it possible for the elite to recruit loyalist as thugs to be involved in intimidating of voters and political opponent and snatching of ballot boxes. Olufemi (2008) argued that potential leaders seek power desperately and go into all sorts of agreement to cling to power against the wishes of the electorate.

iii. The zeal of getting to the position of authority by all means is another factor or reasons for godfatherism. This makes our potential leaders to go into any form of agreement with their godfathers, so as to cling to powers against the wishes of the electorates. In the light of the above, noted, the quest for power, which truncate the interest of the governed, is a direct evidence of endemic complicity and godfathers would naturally emerge because of the vulnerability of such disposition of powers (Nnamani, 2003).

iv. Corruption is another contributing factor to the emergence of godfatherism, corruption now appears to have become a permanent feature of the Nigeria polity. The godfathers today are thriving on ill-gotten wealth acquired under questionable circumstances, majority of them are fraudsters, drug barons, government contractor and the likes (Nnamani (2003).

v. Lastly, politics of godfatherism thrives because it is a profit making venture. Godfathers often invest a lot of resources to ensure the electoral victory of their godsons, with the intention of getting profit later. Conclusion This study has examined godfatherism as political ideology that promotes exclusion and denial of citizen’s fundamental and legitimate entitlement on the grounds that they are not shareholders in the business of breeding godsons and putting them into public offices. The paper reveals that the practice of godfatherism has no doubt led to the erosion of the normative elements of democracy which is central to the growth and stability of democratic survival in the country.

168

Godfather Politics and Democratic Sustenance in Nigeria

The findings of the study reveals that the practice of godfatherism showcases politics as a civil engagement to an enterprise where the mighty and influential are the beneficiaries of the dividends of democracy. This is against the principle and practice of democracy. The godfather and godson usually initiate a relationship that appears like friendship. But in actual sense, it is never so. It is simply a utility friendship. This is because the aim of both is gain and profit. The godfather takes advantage of the relationship to maximize profit and the godson gains advantage over others through the manipulation of the godfather. The paper argued that godsons often times, have failed in fulfilling their own part of the bargain as they always turned around to bite the fingers that fed them. The godfathers on the other hand are so dreaded that voters dare not vote against their wishes. The godfathers often use hoodlums to unleash terror on the citizens and godson. This notwithstanding, the paper argued that public office holders we their positions to the efforts of a godfather. This has made the godson often to misappropriate public funds in an effort to satisfy the neck breaking financial obligations of the godfather. The paper concludes that godfatherism is anti-thesis to the survival of democracy in Nigeria and as such should be rejected by all. Recommendations Based on the findings of the study, the following recommendations are suggested; i. There should be public orientation and enlightenment by the National Orientation Agency (NOA) on the dangers and consequences of political godfatherism.

ii. Poverty must be reduced by the government so that the electorate should not sell their consciences by voting wrong candidates into power as presumed by godfathers.

iii. There should be massive employment for the youths because an idle mind is a devil’s workshop. Godfathers often recruits jobless youths for election rigging.

iv. All political parties should reduce the cost amount of obtaining party nomination forms because most credible candidates cannot afford such money and as such resort to godfathers that are financially buoyant, who often have their ways by sponsoring their candidates.

v. Public offices should be seen as an opportunity to serve and not to be served. It should not be seen as an investment avenue, but rather an opportunity to serve and affect people’s life. So, political office holders deceat from godfathers in order not to misappropriate public funds.

References Adeoye, O.A. (2009). Godfatherism and the future of Nigerian Democracy. African Journal of Political Science and International Relation. 3(6):268-272 Almond, G. (2004), Comparative Politics Today, India Dating Kindersley, Limited. Appadorai, A. (1975). Substance of Politics. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Ayoade, A. (2006). Godfather Politics in Nigeria: Money Politics and Corruption in Nigeria. Abuja, Garkida Press Limited.

169

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Bassey, N and Edet, E. (2008). Godfatherism and good governance in Nigeria: An Appraisal of Nigeria‟s Fourth Republic. Journal of Social and Policy Issues. 5(3):120-130

Edigin, L.U. (2010). Political Conflicts and Godfatherism in Nigeria: A Focus on the Fourth Republic. African Research Review: An International Multi-Disciplinary Journal. 4(4): 174-186 Eastorn, D. (1965), A System Analysis of Political Life: New York: will. Gambo, A. (2006). Godfatherism and Electoral Politics in Nigeria: Garkida Press Limited. Jibrin, I. (2003), the Rise of Godfathers BBC on Africa Magazine, November 10, 2003. Kolawole, D. (2004). Nigeria: The Struggle for Democratic Consolidation in a Post-Colonial State. In Agagu, A.A. and Ola, R.F. (eds). Development Agenda of the Nigerian State. Ibadan: FIAG (Nig) Publishers. Lasswell, H. (1936), Politics: who get what when and how? New York. MacGrew Hill Book. Mao, S. (1956), Nor without Bloodshed Bergin Press. Nnamani, C. (2003). The Godfather Phenomenon. A Speech Lecture Delivered at the Pre- Inaugural Lectcure of the Source magazine at Udi Hill Centre for Public Affairs July, 2003. Okoye, M. (2007). Political Godfatherism, Electoral Politics and Governance in Nigeria. a Presentation at the 65th Annual Conference of the MPSA in Chicago USA. Olufemi, H. (2008). Security Challenges of Godfatherism in Nigeria Politics: Inn Printing Press. Omodia, M. (2009), Elections and Democractic Survival in the Fourth Republic of Nigeria, In a Journal of Pan Africa Studies Vol.13 No. 3 September, 2009. Osuntokun, J. (2003). ‘More on the Ngige Governorship’. The Comet Newspaper, August 7.

Otite, A and Umukoro, N. (2010). Money Politics, Political Culture of Godfatherism and the Future of Democracy in Nigeria: Lessons from the 2007 Gubernatorial Election in Edo State. Africana. 4(2):65-79.

Robert, I. (2006), Power and Democracy in : Jean Printing Press. Teminonu, T. (2006). Godfatherism and Democracy: Ibadan Printing Press. Varma, P. (1975). Modern Political Theory New Delhi: Vikas Publishing of House, PVT Limited. Williams, I. (2004). Citizenship Godfatherism and Democracy. International Journal of Philosophy.1(1).

170

Judicialization of the Electoral Process and Impact on Democratic Process in Nigeria

Judicialization of the Electoral Process and its Impact on Democratic Process in Nigeria

1Andza, Saa-Aondo Moses and 2Dera, Harris Tordue

1Department of Political Science, Benue State University, Makurdi 2Department of Political Science, University of Nigeria, Nsukka [email protected] and [email protected]

Abstract

This paper explores judicialization of the electoral process in Nigeria and finds institutional features, judicial behavior and political dynamics and or determinants culpable for the trend in the country. The paper also finds that between 2003 and 2019, there were 3, 979 litigations arising from the conduct of general elections in the country. Similarly, the paper equally reveals that there were 640 pre-election cases and 40 court orders that arose from the conduct of party primaries for the 2019 general elections. The paper also establishes that the judicialization of elections has eroded the majesty of democracy in Nigeria as the vote does not count in the face of courts’ rulings in favour of appellants especially in pre-election cases. Equally too, judicialization of elections takes away the sovereignty of the electorates. In a similar vein, the paper discovers that judicialization of the electoral process breeds voter apathy, wherein, the majesty of democracy lies in the electorates voting at elections. The paper therefore concludes that, until the electoral process in Nigeria is dejudicialized, we cannot talk of majesty of democracy in the country and as such, the country will, at best, remain in the hybrid regime classification of governments around the world. The paper finally proffers some recommendations for addressing the desperation of politicians who seek to influence the normal course of the law among which is an inclusive governance system that will accommodate losers at elections.

Keywords: Democracy, Election, Judicialization, Litigation, Majesty and Nigeria

Introduction

Democracy is a universal concept and a system of government which ironically, has eluded a universally accepted definition due to different perspectives it is construed by scholars and politicians. Though democracy has varied definitions, its indices and tenets the world over are the same. According to Sandbrooks as cited in Ezonbi (2017, p. 83), “democracy is a political system characterized by regular and free elections in which politicians organize into political parties, compete for power by right of the virtue of all adults to vote and by the guarantee of a range of political and civil rights.” Implicit in this definition is the importance of democracy which supposedly has made it, to use Ezonbi (2017) words, a global maiden which every nation woos as seen in its craze that has swept across the whole world.

The importance of democracy as a system of government in any given society is enormous. Kooijma (2018, p.3) states that democracy places the right level of faith in humanity, gives the people autonomy to choose who rules them and respects people’s rights of freedom and equality. Obialor (2017) contends that the importance of democracy is to be appreciated in the context of ensuring the rule of law, fundamental human rights of citizens, legitimacy which is derived from the people and in accordance with legal requirements, sound decision-making process which

171

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 entails thorough consultation and scrutiny and change of government which could either be through elections or through impeachment and elections or recall of legislators.

It was in recognition of the importance of democracy that democratic activists, civil rights and pro- democracy groups within and outside Nigeria desirous of tapping the benefits of the system fought tirelessly for its return in the country in 1999. Unfortunately, since the return of democracy in 1999, election which is described by some people as the festival of democracy, as it is the paramount way to choose who governs and or represents the people, is replete with a bevy of petitions in both regular courts and election tribunals in post-election matters thus judicializing the electoral process in the country.

Judicialization of the electoral process is conceived to mean the reliance on courts, tribunals and judges in dealing with core political controversies that define polities and or determine the winners of elections as against the electorates (Hirschl, 2011). Between 2003 and 2019, there have been 3, 979 election petitions in Nigeria ((Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room (NCSSR) 2017; p. 17 and Punch Newspaper May 9, 2019). A breakdown of the figures indicates that at the end of the 2003 elections, 560 petitions were filed; 1, 290 petitions in 2007; 732 petitions in 2011; 611 in 2015 and 786 in 2019. This means that on average, there were 663.16 election petitions at the end of the conduct of every general election in Nigeria since 1999. The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, is quoted to have said of the quantum of electoral petitions in Nigeria that:

So far, the commission has been joined in 396 pending actions in various courts across the country arising from the conduct of party primaries and nomination of candidates by political parties. We have also received 302 requests for Certified True Copy (CTC) of documents, mainly our monitory reports of party primaries and copies of personal particulars of candidates. These requests are obviously a prelude to more court actions. We have also received 52 petitions and protests from aggrieved party aspirants. The implication of these challenges is that as we prepare for the general election, we are also going to grapple with pre-election litigations (The Nigerian Tribune December 1, 2018).

This has made some people to question the sovereignty of the court in deciding who governs or represents the people vis-à-vis the electorates whose wish is the foundation and beauty of democracy and its majesty thereof at its most regal. The Editorial of the Guardian Newspaper January 25, 2019 has assented to this when it held that, “government is about the people and the people are the sovereign upon whom no elected leader has the right to impose a narrow vision.” This suggests that routine consultations are encouraged and practiced without which elected officials are detached from everyday reality talk less of the courts deciding who governs or represents the people. This paper explores how elections have been judicialized and how this development has impacted on the majesty of democracy in Nigeria.

This paper is segmented into six (6) sections for purposes of logical analysis beginning with introduction as the first (1) section and is followed by clarification of concepts which is the second (2) section. Following clarification of concepts is the causes of judicialization of elections and the impacts of judicialization of the elections on democracy in Nigeria which are in sections three (3) and four (4) respectively. Section five (5) is the conclusion and the recommendations are housed in the final section which is section six (6).

172

Judicialization of the Electoral Process and Impact on Democratic Process in Nigeria

Clarification of Concepts

Democracy

Huntington (1991) sees democracy as a political system whereby popular candidates are chosen through fair, honest, and periodic elections while candidates freely compete for votes and virtually all the adult population are qualified to vote. The premium placed on election in Huntington’s definition of democracy indicates that the mere mention of democracy suggests that one is talking about elections and this explains why politicians are always prepared for elections. In other words, democracy subscribes to the conduct of elections in choosing leaders that will represent the people. Rousseau and Rivero (2003) see democracy as the power of the people as it manifests in ways of thinking, behaving, and organizing that enhance participation in and influence over the decisions affecting their everyday lives. This too is not a complete departure from the earlier conceptions of democracy as the power of the people is ultimately demonstrated by voting at elections. Invariably, election is the heartbeat of every democratic process.

Election

Election is a basic component of a liberal democratic political system. This assertion is underscored by the fact that democratic representation is built on elections. It is in line with this assertion that Flanigan and Zingale (1998) conceptualize election as the formal mechanism by which citizens maintain or alter the existing political leadership, and, as such, it is the only recognized vehicle for acquiring power in a democratic system. According to Nnoli, as cited in Nwozor (2017, p. 3), “election is the process of choice agreed upon by a group of people…which enables them to select one or a few people out of many to occupy one or a number of authority positions.” Implicit in Nnoli’s conceptualization of elections is the recognition of the fact that an identified group of people have to make the choice (s) among a few or many. Election as a tool for choosing representatives is not restricted to political organizations but also applies to informal groups like clubs and associations.

Judicialization of Elections

To judicialize, as cited in Vallinder (1994, p. 93), is “to treat judicially, arrive at a judgment or decision upon.” Thus, the judicialization of elections simply means the expansion of the province of the courts or the judges at the expense of the electorates and or the politicians, that is, the transfer of the decision making rights from the electorates to the courts, or tribunals. This is simply turning the electoral process into a judicial process. This explains why Hirschl (2011) sees judicialization of elections as the reliance on courts, tribunals and judges dealing with or determining the winner of election (s) or core political controversies that define (and often divide) whole politics as against the electorates.

Causes of Judicialization of Elections in Nigeria

Three main factors have been identified as been responsible for the judicialization of politics generally, and elections in particular, the world over. These factors, according to Hirschl (2011), are institutional features, judicial behavior and political determinants. The institutional features as a factor that accounts for the judicialization of elections requires the existence of a reasonably independent judiciary, whose cardinal function is to defend the rights of citizens as well as the

173

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 entire polity. Hirschl (2011) argues that the close affinity between the existence of a constitutional catalogue of rights and viable judicial review mechanisms in a polity, and judicial activism on the part of that polity’s judiciary does not only provide the necessary institutional framework for courts to become more vigilant in their efforts to protect the fundamental rights and liberties of a given polity’s residents, but also enables them to expand their jurisdiction to address vital moral dilemmas and political controversies of crucial significance to the polity. The 1999 Nigerian constitution as amended, fourth alteration No. 21 Act, 2017, the electoral law 2010 have catalogues of electoral laws which have been subjected to routine reviews which have made the courts and judges become vigilant to protect it from been infringed upon by politicians hence the judicialization of elections in Nigeria.

The judicial behavior as a factor for the judicialization of elections implies the willingness of the judiciary in receiving, hearing and determining electoral matters brought before it. The Nigerian judiciary has made an eloquent statement affirming its willingness in hearing and determining electoral matters as demonstrated in the amount of pre and post election cases it has received, heard and determined since the return of democracy in the country in 1999. However, it is to be noted that the establishment of courts and electoral tribunals does not develop, and cannot be understood, separately from the concrete social, political and economic struggles that shape the Nigerian political system. Indeed, the expansion of judicial powers and judicialization of elections in Nigeria are integral parts and important manifestations of the struggles, and cannot be understood in isolation from them hence the judicialization of elections in Nigeria.

Political determinants as a reason for judicialization of elections in Nigeria are understood in the context of receptiveness and support, tacit or explicit, of the political sphere. This is explained under the headings of macro socio-political trends, the prevalence of rights discourse and litigations, and, most importantly, strategic maneuvering by powerful political stakeholders. Democracy, by its very nature, entails the establishment of some form of separation of powers among the major branches and the rule of law which are in existence in Nigeria.

Rights discourse and litigation emphasize the prevalence of rights discourse or greater awareness to rights issues. Epp (1998) suggests that the impact of constitutional catalogues of rights may be limited by individual inability to invoke them through strategic litigation. But Nigeria is not in want of a support structure for legal mobilization as a number of rights-advocacy organizations, rights supportive lawyers and law schools, global rights-enforcement agencies and legal aid schemes exist in the country which have provided a fertile ground for the judicialization of elections in the country. This has also made strategic maneuvering by political stakeholders easy. Strategic maneuvering by powerful political stakeholders which is largely a function of concrete choices, interests, or strategic considerations by self-interested political stakeholders is the transfer to the courts elections matters which offers a convenient retreat for politicians who have been unwilling to settle contentious elections disputes. It also offers refuge for politicians seeking to avoid difficult or “no win” decision and/or avoid the collapse of deadlocked or fragile governing coalitions. Conversely, political oppositions may seek to judicialize elections (for example through petitions and injunctions) in order to harass and obstruct government. At times, opposition politicians may resort to litigations in an attempt to enhance their media exposure and keep their followers regardless of the outcome of the litigations.

174

Judicialization of the Electoral Process and Impact on Democratic Process in Nigeria

The Impact of Judicialization of Elections on Democracy in Nigeria

Consultation with the constituents and constituency briefings which provides the opportunity for elected representatives to account for their time in parliament constitutes the majesty of democracy. However, the judicialization of the electoral process which sees the courts determining who rules or represents some constituencies poses a threat to consultation and constituency briefings. There is the likelihood that those whose seats to rule or represent the people in the parliament are determined by the courts will hardly consult and or brief their constituencies, especially those not seeking re-election. This thus explains why some “elected representatives” do not consult their constituents before voting in major decisions in their respective legislative houses as there have been no reflection of consultations with the constituents as seen in some protests against some decisions of some “elected representatives” in the country. The parliament as the highest body of elected persons in the country’s various tiers of government is supposedly the people’s voice, however, the determination of their representation by the courts has obviously taken away the people’s voice in some constituencies in the country, as the affected representatives constitute a voice of their own in their respective constituencies.

The judicialization of the electoral process in the country which has led to court rulings in favour of appellants, especially in pre-election matters to occupy elective positions, puts to question whether the votes actually count. The majesty of democracy is rooted in the decision of the majority of the electorates to choose their rulers and representatives, but the determination of who rules or represents the people by the courts implies that, to some extent, the sovereignty of the majority of the electorates is now transferred to a panel of judges who are a negligible minority to exercise the sovereignty of the electorates. It is said that the majority are not always right, but it is curious to understand the soundness, intelligence and rationality of the decision of less than ten people (judges) compared to thousands of people if it were not on the point of law. If democracy means majority rules, then, how valid is this meaning in the face of a decision of less than ten persons as against the thousands in a constituency.

We should not, however, be misconstrued of being unaware of the fact that, democracy also entails the rule of law which, according to the Black’s Law Dictionary as cited in Nwogu (2010, p. 188) “is the supremacy of regular law as opposed to arbitrary power and every person is subject to the ordinary law within the jurisdiction.” Nevertheless, the judiciary’s dominance of the electoral process which ordinarily ought to be completely the affairs of the electorates is what has given rise to the concept of judicialization of the electoral process and its impact on the majesty of democracy. The ballot box ought to be the sole determinant of elections in a democracy rather than the courts.

Election is generally regarded as the festival of democracy and if this is accepted, then, party primaries are conversely regarded as necessary and compulsory pre-festival activity that chooses the major participants in the festival of democracy, and so a situation where one does not participate in the festival for whatever reason but after the festival he/she is authorized by a panel of judges to represent a constituency as against the decision of the participants (electorates) of the festival questions the essence and majority decision of the participants of the festival.

Though the law recognizes political parties above and against candidates in elections, which is the basis why certificates of return are issued to appellant candidates who win in pre-election matters,

175

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 it however robs the people of their sovereignty in the court decided elections. This is because those who win in pre-election matters and are issued certificates of return by the electoral umpire in compliance with court rulings would not have necessarily been able to win secondary election as they would probably have not been the peoples’ choice even if they were validly nominated by their political parties. Perhaps, this must have informed the enactment by the National Assembly, and assented to by the president, the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, (Fourth Alteration, N0.21) Act, 2017 which alters the provisions of the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, to provide time for the determination of pre-election matters; and for related matters. Most importantly, the Act’s provision in Section thirteen (13) that “an election tribunal or court shall not declare any person a winner at an election in which such a person has not fully participated in all stages of the election” is an indication that the erosion of the majesty of democracy by the judicialization of the electoral process had not gone unnoticed hence the Act.

Judicialization of the electoral process also has negative influence on voters’ perception of the whole election outcome and therefore makes them complacent, disillusioned, indifferent, or a sense of futility (a perception that one’s vote will not make a difference) which has led to an increase in low voter turnout since the return of democracy in the country in 1999. Low voter turnout is undesirable because it is an indication of the height of political apathy and the majesty of democracy lies in political participation, especially by the electorates voting at elections, and so their (electorates) staying away from elections erodes the majesty of democracy in Nigeria.

Voter turnout from 1999 when the first general elections in the Fourth Republic was conducted to the 2019 general elections shows that in 1999, there were 57, 938, 945, registered voters while voter turnout was 30, 280, 052, which was 52.26 percent (International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IIDEA), as cited in Garba and Shaapera 2018, p. 173). In the 2003 general elections, IIDEA, as cited in Garba and Shaapera (2018, p. 173) also states that there were 60, 832, 022 registered voters, while 42, 018, 735 voters turned out for the elections which is 69.08 percent, representing 16.82 percent increase in voter turnout which is far considered as golden in the annals of voter turnout in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. Though, other reasons might also be adduced for the notable voter turnout in the 2003 general elections, it is instructive to note that this may not be unconnected to the fact that there were very minimal pre and post-election litigations arising from the conduct of the 1999 general elections which probably encouraged and gave the people the confidence that their votes would count against court determinations of elective positions, hence the remarkable turnout in the 2003 general elections.

In 2007, IIDEA in Garba and Shaapera (2018, p. 173) further avers that there were 61, 567, 036 registered voters in Nigeria and the voter turnout was 35, 397, 517, which is 57.49 percent, representing a decrease of 11.59 percent. The number of pre and post-election litigations witnessed in the 2003 general elections probably informed the drop in voter turnout in the 2007 general elections. There were 560 post election litigations in 2003 (NCSSR 2017, p. 17) that witnessed twists and turns with some lasting the whole tenure for which the elections were held thereby becoming an academic exercise and as such, frustrating and dampening the hope of the appellants and their supporters in not just the litigations but elections as well as democracy in Nigeria generally.

The 2011 general elections witnessed a fall in voter turnout as out of the 73, 528, 040 registered voters in the election 39, 469, 484 voters, which is 53.68 percent, turned out for the elections which

176

Judicialization of the Electoral Process and Impact on Democratic Process in Nigeria represent 3.81 percent decrease (IIDEA, as cited in Garba and Shaapera 2018, p. 173). It is pertinent to note that the 2007 general elections which preceded the 2011 general elections have so far gone as the most judicialized election in the records of election litigations in Nigeria as there were 1, 290 post-election litigations in the country (NCSSR 2017; p. 17). This, no doubt, explains the decrease in voter turnout in the 2011 general elections. The percentage of decrease would have been higher than what was witnessed but the 2011 general elections also saw 11, 961, 004, representing 19.42 percent, increase in the number of registered voters which was the highest ever increase as at that time.

In the 2015 general elections, IIDEA, as cited in Garba and Shaapera (2018, p. 173) as well asserts that there were 67, 422, 005 registered voters in the country and less than half, 29, 432, 083, representing 43.65 percent, voters turned out for the elections which was 10.03 percent decrease. Though there was 43.25 percent drop in the number of post-election litigations recorded in 2011 as there were 732 cases (NCSSR 2017; p. 17), it still cannot be pushed or overlooked in explaining the drop in voter turnout in the country in the 2015 general elections.

The 2019 general elections further witnessed a drop in voter turnout as out of 84, 004, 084 registered voters only 29, 364, 209 (Pulse.ng February 27, 2019), representing 34.95 percent, turned out for the elections, which indicated 8.7 percent decrease from what was obtained in 2015. As it were in 2011, there was also a marginal drop in the number of post-election litigations in the 2015 general elections from 732 to 611 in 2015 (NCSSR 2017; p. 17), which represents 16.53 percent drop. However, the precedence set over the previous elections had already entrenched an apathetic voting behavior among the electorates and so the judicialization of the electoral process in the country cannot be exonerated from the fall in voter turnout in the 2019 general elections.

According to Ali Zubairu as quoted in the Daily Trust Newspaper of April 9, 2019, the increased number of pre and post-election litigations in the 2019 general elections is an indication of a reversal of the gains of the 2011 and 2015 general elections. This, thus, constitutes a serious challenge to the development and or consolidation of democracy in Nigeria. It was INEC (2015; p. 19) that held that “the one important measure of democratic development is the number of post- electoral disputations that end up in court, the fewer the post-election petitions, the more consolidated.” As such, we cannot proudly talk about the majesty of democracy in Nigeria in the face of the numerous post-election litigations always witnessed in the country after every election since the return to democratic rule over twenty years ago. This singular development gave rise to the concept and judicialization of the electoral process in Nigeria.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (2019) holds that the most important indices of democracy are electoral process and pluralism. It further states that since 2006 when the state of democracies around the world began to be measured, Nigeria has witnessed a snail movement from authoritarian to hybrid a regime classification which is due, largely, to its poor performance in electoral process and pluralism and the judicialization of the electoral process. These factors are among the prominent factors which have accounted for the country’s poor performance in the electoral process and pluralism. Statistics at our disposal (Economist Intelligence Unit 2006, 2008, 2010 to 2018) indicate that Nigeria moved from authoritarian regime to hybrid regime classification only in 2015 and has remained in the hybrid regime classification to date with a rank of 108 out of the 167 countries measured with an overall score of 4.44 percent, as well as with an electoral process and pluralism score of 6.08 percent. Thus, with this statistics, we cannot

177

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 glowingly talk about the majesty of democracy in Nigeria, as the country does not even belong to the category of flawed democracies not to talk of full democracies where the majesty of democracy is fully respected and observed.

Conclusion

It is evident from the preceding analysis that institutional features, judicial behavior and political dynamics and or determinants have led to an increasing judicialization of the electoral process in Nigeria since the return of democracy in 1999. This is evident in the number of pre and post- election litigations witnessed in the country, except for the 2011 and 2015 general elections where the figures dropped. This, thus, has constituted an impediment to the development of democracy in the country and, as such, it has robbed the county of the majesty of democracy. Therefore, we cannot proudly speak of the majesty of democracy in Nigeria in the face of the numerous electoral court cases. To this extent, the impact of the judicialization of the electoral process on the majesty of democracy is real, not deserving too much of an explanation. In other words, the most important index of democracy is an electoral process that is devoid of litigations.

Nigeria, on the basis of this development, cannot proudly talk of the majesty of democracy, and until the country’s electoral process is dejudicialized and other challenges that militate against the development and or consolidation of democracy which have made her ranked 108th on democracy index in the world surpassing only 59 countries are surmounted the majesty of democracy will continue to elude the country’s democracy. It is also pertinent to add that the trend is not likely to abate any time soon because politicians in their desperation would most likely continue to seek to influence the normal course of the law. Invariably, identifying and addressing the desperation of the politicians is very central to reversing the trend of judicialization of elections in the country.

Recommendations

i. The winner takes all syndrome that has characterized Nigerian politics should be replaced with an inclusive governance system to accommodate other contestants to address the desperation by politicians to win either by hook or crook. ii. There should also be social and economic inclusion, especially of the teeming youth population to reduce the level of unemployment which has made our idling youths to be willing tools in the hands of desperate politicians. iii. There should be decentralization of more powers to the states and local governments to discourage the unhealthy competition for elective positions, especially at the federal level, that leads to desperations. iv. The prevalent corruption, especially in the public sector, in the country that makes public office attractive should be addressed. v. The political class should be reoriented to see public office, especially elective positions, as platforms for service delivery rather than money making ventures that have spurred the desperation for them.

178

Judicialization of the Electoral Process and Impact on Democratic Process in Nigeria

References

Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 as amended

Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (Fourth Alteration No. 21) Act 2017 – Available at http://placng.org/wp/wp.content/uploads/201806//Determination-of-Pre- Election-MattersFourth-Alteration-N0.-21Act.pdf

Daily Trust Newspaper April 9, 2019 – Available at https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/are-election- petitions-showing-better-electoral-process.html

Economist Intelligence Unit (2019), Democracy Index 2006, 2008, 2010 to 2018 – Available at https://infographics.economist.com/2018/DemocracyIndex/

Electoral Law 2010 – Available at https://placng.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Electoral- Act-2010.pdf

Epp, C (1998), The Rights Revolution: Lawyers, Activists and Supreme Courts in Comparative Perspective. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Ezonbi, B. (2017), Some Reflections on the Nigerian Nation and the Challenges of Democracy, 1999-2014. In T. Wuam, B. Ezonbi & Jonah C.E (eds.) The Fourth Republic in Nigeria: Politics, Elections and Civil Society (pp. 80-105). Lagos: Bahiti and Dahila publishers.

Flanigan, W. H. & Zingale, N. H. (1998) Political Behaviour of the American Electorate, Ninth Edition. Washington DC: CQ Press.

Garba, D. & Shaapera, S. A (2018), The Challenges of Democratic Development in Nigeria, 1999- 2018, FUDMA Journal of Politics and International Affairs 1(1) pp. 162-180

Guardian Newspaper January 25, 2019 – Available at https://www.com/amp/s/guardian.ng/opinion/uk-brexit-and-majesty-of-democracy/amp

Hirschl R (2011), The Judicialization of Politics. In Goodin R.E (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Political Science (pp. 1-23) New York: Oxford University Press

Huntington, S.P. (1991). The third wave: Democratization in the late twentieth century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.

INEC 2015 General Election Report

Kooijma, E. (2018), Is Democracy the best form of Government? – Available at https://www.nchlondon.ac.uk/2018/03/21/democracy-best-form-government/

Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room (2017), Report on Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections 28 March & 11 April 2015 - Available at http://www.placng.org/situation_room/sr/wp- content/uploads/2015/07/SITUATION-ROOM-REPORT-ON-2015-ELECTIONS-pdf

Nigerian Tribune December 1, 2018 – Available at https://www.tribuneonlineng.com/176284/

179

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Nwogu, M.O. (2010), The Rule of Law in Governance in Nigeria. Nnamdi Azikiwe University Journal of International Law and Jurisprudence, 1(1) pp. 187-201.

Nwozor, A. (2017), Electoral Governance and the Challenge of Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria, 1999-2014. In T. Wuam, B. Ezonbi & Jonah, C.E. (eds.) The Fourth Republic in Nigeria: Politics, Elections and Civil Society (pp. 1-26). Lagos: Bahiti and Dalila Publishers

Obialor, C (2017), 5 Reason why Democracy is the best System of Government – Available at https://inforguidenigeria.com/democracy-best-system-government/

Pulse.ng February 27, 2019 – Available at https://www.pulse.ng/news/politics/2019-election- only-3475-of-registered-voters-voted/ydl49c6

Punch Newspaper May 9, 2019 – Available at https://punchng.com/presidential-election-tribunal- begins-hearing-promises-justice/

Rousseau, D.M. & Rivero, A. (2003) Democracy: A way of Organizing in a Knowledge Economy. Journal of Management Inquiry, 12 (2) pp. 115-134.

Vallinder, T (1994), The Judicialization of Politics - A World-wide Phenomenon: Introduction. International Political Science Review 15 (2) pp. 91-99

180

An Analysis of the Practices of Creative Accounting, Implications and Prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Northeast Nigeria

Zephaniah Liuraman1 and Ishaya John Dabari2 Ph. D and Mohammed Abba3 Ph.D and Emeka Daniel Oruonye4 Ph. D

1Department of Accounting, Kwararafa University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria Email Address: [email protected] 2Department of Accountancy, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola, Adamawa State, Nigeria Email Address: [email protected]; [email protected] 4Department of Geography, Taraba State University Jalingo, Taraba State, Nigeria Email Adress: [email protected]

Abstract

The study empirically examines the practice of creative accounting, implications and prevention among money deposit banks in Nigeria. Survey research design was adopted and questionnaire was used to elicit information from branch managers, accountants and auditors of the selected money deposit banks operating in Yola, Jalingo and Gombe metropolis of Adamawa, Taraba and Gombe States, Nigeria. The data collected were analysed using ANOVA to test the hypotheses raised in the study. The findings of the study revealed that the Nigerian money deposit banks practice creative accounting with the main aim of attracting more investors, and the practice of creative accounting has a significant effect on the market share price, which consequently, affects the economic decision making of the users of financial statement. Furthermore, the study revealed that the adoption of IFRS by banks has significantly reduced the practice of creative accounting among money deposit banks in Nigeria. Based on the above findings, the study recommends that the practice of creative accounting should be discouraged because it is unethical. Regulatory bodies and professional bodies should adopt strict measures to stop the practice. This can be achieved through reducing the degree of choice of accounting policies and professional judgement in determining the method of measurement, criteria for recognition, and even the definition of the accounting entity.

Keywords: Banks, Creative accounting, Financial Report, IFRS, Nigeria, Unethical

Introduction

A financial report is the medium used by managers to show the results of their stewardship towards the resources entrusted to them. Financial statements are prepared to convey information regarding the financial position, performance and cash flows of firms. Financial reports are required to provide various users with timely and reliable information useful for making prudent, efficient and effective decisions. Since stockholders have no access to a firm’s accounting records, they depend heavily on such financial statements when making any economic judgment and decision.

In the preparation of financial report, firms are required by law to adopt necessary and relevant accounting policies, measurements and standards that will enhance the quality of financial report (ICAN, 2009). Current accounting practice allows a degree of choice of policies and professional judgement in determining the method of measurement, criteria for recognition, and even the definition of the accounting entity (Akenbor and Ibanichuka, 2012). In the process of

181

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 enjoying this freedom, deliberate actions are taken by some managements which may result to non-disclosure of some relevant information, and intentional distortion of accounting figures, thereby presenting financial information that is not the true and fair reflection of the economic activities of the organisation (Sen and Inanga, 2004). Abiodun, Sunday, Stephen and Gabriel (2012) are of the view that the debilitating effects of creative accounting practices on the truthfulness and fairness of financial reports and hence the users of accounting information and their investment decision-making effectiveness become threatened on daily basis.

A previous study such as Schipper (1989) posits that creative accounting practices occur because management has the discretion to choose accounting principles in preparing financial statements. The numerous corporate failures, therefore, are indication of lapses in the corporate accounting information disclosure practices among corporations globally. This has had derogative effects on the integrity of financial reporting and the accounting profession. Other harmful effects of corporate scandals include massive loss of investors’ fund, loss of jobs, disruption of capital market and reduction in the National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Adetayo and Ajiga, 2017).

Bankole, Ukolobi and McDubus (2018) have stated that there are companies that overstate their financial performance to meet targets in order to please ever demanding shareholders in Nigeria. Osazevbaru (2012) examined creative accounting and firm’s market value in Nigeria. The study concludes that many banks in Nigeria indulge in creative accounting. Akenbor and Ibanichuka (2012) and Sanusi and Izadonmi (2013) are of the view that the main reason for the practice of creative accounting is to raise market value of shares. The corporate failures of most banks today and the arrest of some banks Chief Executive Officers by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) in 2009, are as a result of fraudulent financial reporting, which has affected the stability of the financial system in Nigeria. It is evident that the extent of the practice of creative accounting by Nigerian banks has greatly violated all known ethical standards of the accounting and auditing profession (Osisioma and Enahoro, 2006).

Previous studies on creative accounting such as Sen and Inanga (2004), Domash (2002), Amat, Blake and Dowds (1999) Naser (1993), Schiff (1993), and Alam (1988) have focused mainly on the impact of creative accounting on reported earnings without highlighting its implications and preventive measures. More so, the studies are of foreign origin whose findings may not be compatible with the Nigerian situation considering environmental and economic differences. The few available studies in Nigeria such as Osisioma and Enahoro (2006), Aremu and Bello (2004) have focussed mainly on pharmaceutical companies but not paid particular attention to the banking industry. Therefore, the study intends to fill the above gap by empirically examining the perception of stakeholders on the practice of creative accounting; implication and prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria.

The specific objectives of the study are to: i. Assess the motive for the practices of creative accounting among the Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria; ii. Examine the effect of creative accounting on share price performance of Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria; iii. Examine whether the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) has reduced the practice of creative accounting among the Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria.

182

An Analysis of the Practices of Creative Accounting, Implications and Prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Northeast Nigeria

In order to achieve the above stated objectives, the study formulates the following hypotheses to be tested:

H01: The main motive for the practice ofcreative accountingby Nigerian Money Deposit Banks is not to attract more investors.

H02: Creative accountinghas no significant effect on the market share price of Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria.

H03: The adoption of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) has not significantly reduced the practice of creative accounting among the Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria.

This study will have significant theoretical importance for academics, as it will contribute to the body of literature by filling the gap about the practices and implications of creative accounting in money deposit banks sub sector of financial institutions in Nigeria. The data generated and information gathered from the field survey and library research shall become secondary source of information and references for further studies. Also the outcome will benefit immensely various groups in the financial sector. Stakeholders, investors, regulatory bodies are among the potential beneficiaries of the study.

Conceptual Clarification

The Concept of Creative Accounting

Creative accounting is also known as income smoothing, earnings management, earnings smoothing, financial engineering and cosmetic accounting (Bankole, Ukolobi and McDubus,2018). The preferred term in the United States of America (USA) and consequently in most of the literature on the subject is ‘earnings management’, but in Europe the preferred term is ‘creative accounting’ and so this is the term this study adopts. The concept of creative accounting has received an extensive concern by both academics and practitioners, particularly in the developed countries (Sen and Inanga, 2004). Therefore, there are various definitions put forward by scholars. Barnea, Ronen and Sadan (1976) have viewed creative accounting as the deliberate dampening of fluctuations about some level of earnings considered being normal for the firm. It is also seen as involving the repetitive selection of accounting measurement or reporting rules in a particular pattern, the effect of which is to report a stream of income with a smaller variation from trends than would otherwise have appeared (Copeland, 1968). Schipper (1989) observes that ‘creative accounting’ can be equated with ‘disclosure management’, in the sense of a purposeful intervention in the financial reporting processes. Merchant and Rockness (1994) define creative accounting as any action on the part of management which affects reported income and which provides no true economic advantage to the organization and may, in fact, in the long-term, be detrimental. Defining creative accounting, Merchant and Rockness appreciate any action that comes from the management which can distort the profits and which is not a consequence of the economic reality, it actually represents the privilege of the financial engineering. They draw the attention on the fact that on long term, all these forced approaches can have a negative effect on the financial stability of the economic entities. Also, the scholars agree that creative accounting is an intentional effort made by management to distort financial statement of an organisation for whatever reasons they deemed it fit.

183

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Existence of Creative Accounting

Even though managers’ motivation for creative accounting may be established and accepted at least in theory, establishing empirically that it takes place is a separate problem. Naser and Pendlebury (1992) question senior corporate auditors about their experience of creative accounting. The study reveals that all categories of companies employ creative accounting techniques to some extent. Some studies such as Naser and Pendlebury (1992); Grover (1991b) and Amat, Gowthorpe and Perraman (2003) have examined a particular aspect or technique of creative accounting. All tend towards the conclusion that creative accounting using that particular technique does exist. Barnea, Ronen and Sadan (1976) discuss classificatory smoothing with the use of extraordinary items of 62 US companies; the study reveals that classificatory smoothing does take place. Merchant (1990) examines management manipulation of accounting information withintwo firms drawing upon both interview and questionnaire data. The study finds that managers acknowledge manipulative behaviours and short-term orientations. Black, Sellers and Manly (1998) have examined non-current asset sales as creative accounting tools, using a very large dataset of observations from Australia, New Zealand and the UK. They find that where the relevant accounting standards are permissive, managers will exploit the potential for creative accounting via timing of asset sales.

Techniques of Creative Accounting

According to Amat, Gowthorpe and Perraman (2003) the potential for creative accounting is found in five principal areas: Accounting policy choice, management scope for estimation in discretionary areas, artificial transactions, timing of genuine transactions, reclassification and presentation of financial numbers.

Accounting Policy Choice (APC)

Extant accounting rules allow a company to choose between different accounting methods. A company can, therefore, choose the accounting policy that gives it preferred image. One area of this flexibility is in respect of asset valuation. International Accounting Standards permit a choice between carrying non-current assets at their valued amounts or depreciated historical cost (Amat, Gowthorpe and Perraman,2003). Business enterprises may validly change their accounting policy to give them their preferred image. For example, Schipper (1989) in Amat, Gowthorpe and Perraman (2003) observes that such changes may be relatively easy to identify in the year of change but are much less readily discernible thereafter.

Management Scope for Estimation in Discretionary Areas (MSEDA)

Certain entries in accounts of companies involve an unavoidable degree of estimation, judgment and prediction. Amat and Blake (1999) have given examples of estimation of an asset’s useful life made in order to calculate depreciation. These estimates are normally made inside the business and the creative accountant has the opportunity to err on the side of caution or optimism in making the estimate. These ‘earnings management’ techniques can go without running fowl to existing accounting principles. Agreeing to this view, Henry (2004) asserts that companies, even when legally abiding by the accounting rules, can massage the presentation of their earnings and cash positions. The area’s most susceptible to abuse by management freedom of judgment and

184

An Analysis of the Practices of Creative Accounting, Implications and Prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Northeast Nigeria estimation: Estimate Sales; Predict bad Debts; Adjust Inventory;Forecast unusual gains or losses andMassage cash

Artificial Transactions (AT)

Artificial transactions can validly be entered into both to manipulate balance sheet amounts and to move profits between accounting periods. A company can enter into two or more transactions with an obliging third party, normally a bank to achieve this (Amat and Blake, 1999). An arrangement to sell an asset to a bank and lease that asset back for the rest of its useful life could be entered into with a view to window-dressing financial figures in the account, particularly when the sale price under such a ‘sale and leaseback’ can be pitched above or below the value of the asset because the differences can be compensated for by increased or reduced rentals.

Timing of Genuine Transactions (TGT)

Creative transactions can be timed to give the desired impression in the accounts. A business which has an investment of N300 million at historical cost can easily be sold for over N900 million at the current value (that is, three times the historic cost) and is at liberty to creatively choose the year in which to sell the investment and so increase the profit in the account.

Reclassification and Presentation of Financial Numbers (RPFN)

Firms may engage in creative accounting in the form of Balance Sheet manipulation where they reclassify liabilities in order to smooth reported liquidity and leverage ratios (Gramlich, McAnally and Thomas, 2001). Another special area of creativity is the presentation of financial numbers based on cognitive reference points. Niskanen and Kelohorju (2000) in Amat, Gowthorpe and Perraman (2003) explain that the idea behind this behaviour is that humans may perceive a profit of say, 301 million as abnormally larger than a profit of 289 million. Their study and those of Van (2002) have indicated that some minor massaging of figures do take place in financial statements in order to reach significant reference points.

Reasons for Directors to Manipulate Accounts

According to Blake (1999) reasons for the directors of listed companies to seek to manipulate the accounts include:

i. To report steady trend of growth in profit: Companies generally prefer to report a steady trend of growth in profit rather than to show volatile profits with a series of dramatic rises and falls. This is achieved by making unnecessarily high provisions for liabilities and against asset values in good years so that these provisions can be reduced, thereby improving reported profits in bad years. ii. To achieve profit forecasts; Fox (1997) reports on how accounting policies at Microsoft are designed within the normal accounting rules, to match reported earnings to profit forecasts. When Microsoft sells software, a large part of the profit is deferred to future years to cover potential upgrade and customer support costs. This perfectly respectable, and highly conservative accounting policy means that future earnings are easy to predict.

185

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

iii. To distract attention from unwelcome news. Collingwood (1991) reports on how a change in accounting method boosted K-Mart's quarterly profit figure of $160 million by a happy coincidence distracting attention from the company slipping back from being the largest retailer in the USA to the number two slot.

iv. To maintain or boost share price by reducing the apparent levels of borrowing so making the company appear subject to less risk, and by creating the appearance of a good profit trend. This helps the company to raise capital from new share issues, offer their own shares in takeover bids and resist takeover by other companies.

iv. To delay the release of information for the market, thereby enhancing their opportunity to benefit from inside knowledge.

Theoretical Background

There are several theories underpinning the study of creative accounting practices. Few of these theories mentioned by Bankole, Ukolobi and McDubus (2018) are agency theory, stakeholder theory, information asymmetric theory, and the debt covenant theory. This study is anchored on agency theory.

Agency theory

Vladu and Madis (2010) assert that agency theory is the dominant theory in the study of creative accounting. In legal entity, ownership is separated from management. The owners (shareholders) being the principal hire managers (directors) as the agent to manage shareholder’s investments. Sydserff and Weetman (1999) have pointed out that due to the conflict of interest between shareholders and the directors in the sharing of economic resources, directors are capable of engaging in opportunistic behaviour, hence managers are not objective in preparing accounting statements in stewardship to the shareholders, resulting in information asymmetric between principal and agent. According to Adetoso and Fredrick (2017) this explains the reasons why management may engage in creative accounting to achieve it personal goals. Management is expected to act in the best interest of the shareholders, but this may not always be the case as pointed out by Taiwo and Adejare (2014) in their work titled ‘Influence of Creative Accounting Practices on the Financial Performance of Companies Listed in the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya as at 2013. Management as the agent of the principal and stakeholders of financial information is expected to discharge its duty according to accounting principles and regulations in order to avoid misrepresentation or falsification of figures. In a similar vein, Osisioma and Enahoro (2006) state that stakeholders rely heavily on the financial statement of companies to take investment decisions. Therefore, management and accountants should avoid being unethical when preparing financial statement of an organisation.

Materials and Methods

The study adopted a survey method of research design using questionnaire to elicit information from the respondents. The target population consisted of all the fifty-one (51) money deposit bank branches in the study area and the target respondents were all the branch managers, accountants and auditors (153) of the banks operating in Yola, Jalingo and Gombe metropolis of Adamawa, Taraba and Gombe States respectively. Out of the population of 51 banks, 45 were

186

An Analysis of the Practices of Creative Accounting, Implications and Prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Northeast Nigeria systematically selected (arranged alphabetically and the first fifteen were selected) and one hundred and thirty-five (135) branch managers, accountants and auditors of the selected banks were systematically selected as respondents. The questionnaire was designed in five response options of Likert-scale of strongly agreed (SA), agreed (A), neutral (N), disagreed (DA), strongly disagreed (SD). To assure the robustness of the questionnaire, a satisfactory result was obtained from the pilot test using 30 respondents from six branches operating in Yola metropolis of Adamawa state. There was also a confirmation of the content validity of a group of experts comprising four Senior Lecturers in Accounting Department of Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola and three accounting practitioners in Adamawa State. After effecting the necessary corrections and adjustments observed, the study went ahead to conduct the main survey.

Table 1: The distribution of questionnaires issued and returned

SN. States Population No. of % of Questionnaire Questionnaire % of total (Banks) banks Population no. served no. returned questionnaire sampled retuned 1 Adamawa 19 15 79 45 44 97.78 2 Gombe 17 15 88 45 42 93.33 3 Taraba 15 15 100 45 40 88.89 4 Total 51 45 88.2 135 126 93.33 Source: Field survey (2019) Three questionnaires were served to each bank selected in each state, total forty-five questionnaires (45) per State. Therefore, one hundred and thirty-five (135) questionnaires were served across the three States. Out of the forty-five (45) questionnaires distributed in Adamawa State, forty-four (44) representing 97.78%, were completed and returned, Gombe State returned forty-two (42) out of forty-five (45), representing 93.33%, of the questionnaires distributed, while Taraba State returned forty (40) out of forty-five, representing 88.89%, of the questionnaire distributed. Among the three States, Adamawa State returned the highest number of questionnaire distributed (97.78%), followed by Gombe State (93.33%), and lastly Taraba State which retuned 88.89%. A total of one hundred and twenty-six (126), representing 93.33% of the questionnaires distributed were fully completed and returned.

The data collected from the respondents were analysed and presented in tables using simple percentage. The formulated hypotheses were statistically tested with Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) at 5% significant level. This technique is considered appropriate because of its robustness quality (Akenbor and Ibanichuka, (2012). The formula for the determination of ANOVA value is as:

Table 2: Summary of ANOVA Analysis Formula Source of variation Sum of Square df Mean Square F Remarks Between SSb t-1 SSb/dfb Accept MSb/MSw Or Within SSw N-t SSw/dfw Reject Total SSt N-1 Source: Adefila (2014)

The rule is that when the calculated value is greater than the table value, the null hypothesis is rejected. This implies that the alternative hypothesis (H1) is accepted only when the calculated value is greater than the table value at its relevant level of significant and degree of freedom, which

187

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

leads to the conclusion that there is significant difference, relationship, influence or effect between the tested variables (Adefila, 2014).

Result of the Findings

Table 3: Respondents responses to questions on questionnaire issued (%)

SN. Response/ State Adamawa Gombe Taraba Total No. No. No. No. (44) % (42) % (40) % (126) % Money Deposit Banks in the State practice 1 Creative Accounting 24 55 21 50 23 58 68 54.0 Main aim of creative accounting is to attract more 2 investors 29 66 31 74 21 53 81 64.3 Frequent accounting policies by the banks is to 3 allow for creative accounting 31 70 28 67 35 88 94 74.6 4 Creative accounting affect share – market price 35 80 32 76 23 58 90 71.4 Creative accounting affect decisions of users of 5 financial reports 28 64 29 69 25 63 82 65.1 6 IFRS reduces practices of creative accounting 32 73 27 64 28 70 87 69.0 7 Penalties on creative accounting should be raised 29 66 30 71 27 68 86 68.3 8 Accounting standards/principles/rules should be streamlined to reduce abuses 25 57 27 64 21 53 73 57.9 No of MDBs practising creative accounting were 9 up to 5 banks 15 34 18 43 19 48 52 41.3 No of MDBs practising creative accounting were 10 up to 4 banks 24 55 22 52 16 40 62 49.2 No of MDBs practising creative accounting were 11 up to 3 banks 30 68 24 57 25 63 79 62.7 No of MDBs practising creative accounting were 12 up to 2 banks 31 70 30 71 29 73 90 71.4 No of MDBs practising creative accounting was 13 only one bank 18 41 16 38 17 43 51 40.5 Source: Field survey (2019)

Table 3 shows that 68 (54%) of the respondents were of the view that MDBs across the three States practice creative accounting. Specifically, it can be observed that majority of the respondents, 55% in Adamawa State, 50% in Gombe State and 58% in Taraba State, unanimously agreed that MDBs practice creative accounting. Considering the motive for the practice of creative accounting by the MDBs in the States, majority of the respondents in Adamawa State 66%, in Gombe State 74% and 53% in Taraba State were of the view that MDBs practice creative accounting in order to attract more investors. This is also reflected in the general opinion that 64.3% MDBs practice creative accounting to attract more investors. The result further revealed that majority of the respondents 74.6% were of the view that frequent change in accounting policies by the banks is to allow for creative accounting. This is evident from the result obtained across the three States where 70% respondents in Adamawa State, 67% in Gombe State and 88% in Taraba State commonly agreed that the frequent change in accounting policies by banks is an indication of practice of creative accounting. Collectively, the highest number of respondents 71.4 supported

188

An Analysis of the Practices of Creative Accounting, Implications and Prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Northeast Nigeria the view that the practice of creative accounting has an effect on the market share price. Based on the respective States, 80% of the respondents in Adamawa State, 76% in Gombe State and 58% were of the view that the practice of creative accounting affects market price of shares. Given the highest number of the respondents 65.1%, it indicates that creative accounting affects decisions of users of financial reports. 64% of the respondents in Adamawa State, 69% in Gombe State and 63% in Taraba State are the breakdown based on the States. Specifically, the practice of creative accounting has an effect on the economic decision making of the users of financial report.

The study went further to identify the measures to reduce the practice of creative accounting among MDBs. The highest number of the respondents 69% were of the opinion that the adoption of IFRS by MDBs has reduced the practice of creative accounting among the MDBs. Also the result shows that 68.3% of the respondents were of the view that penalties on the practice of creative accounting should be raised. Furthermore, 57.9% of respondents agreed that accounting standards/principles/rules should be streamlined to reduce abuses.

Table 3 also revealed that 41.3% of the respondents commonly agreed that the number of MDBs practising creative accounting were not up to five (5). However, 55% of respondents in Adamawa State and 52% in Gombe State were of the view that the number of MDBs practising creative accounting were up to four (4), while the respondents in Taraba State were of the contrary opinion that the number of MDBs practising creative accounting were not up to four (4). It is also evident that the number of MDBs practising creative accounting ranges from two (2) to four (4). This implies that at least two (2) MDBs in each State practice creative accounting.

Test of hypotheses The hypotheses formulated for the study were tested as follows using ANOVA - test statistical techniques at 5% significant level.

H01: The practice ofcreative accounting among Money Deposit Banks is not to attract more investors

The data collected from the respondents on the above assertion is presented in Table 4 below:

Table 4: Distribution on the reason for the practice of creative accounting Options Accountant Auditors Managers Total SA 6 15 6 27 A 21 24 9 54 U 3 0 6 9 D 9 6 15 30 SD 3 0 3 6 Total 42 45 39 126 Sources: Field survey (2019)

Table 5: Result of ANOVA Analysis

Source of variation Sum of Square df Mean Square F Between 495.6 2 247.8 12.09 Within 246 12 20.5 Total 741.6 14 Source: Computed by the researcher (2019)

189

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

From statistical table, the orthogonal tabular value Ft at 0.05 level of significant and F2, 12 degree of freedom is 3.89. With this value of Ft from the table, the calculated (Fc) value in table 5 above of 12.09 is greater than the obtained table value (Ft) (i.e. Fc of 12.09 > Ft of 3.89). Decision: Reject null hypothesis. Therefore, the study concludes that the practice ofcreative accountingamong Money Deposit Banks is to attract more investors.

H02: Creative accountinghas no significant effect on the share market price of Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria

Table 6: Distribution on the influence of creative accounting on share market price Options Accountant Auditors Managers Total SA 3 9 12 24 A 27 24 15 66 U 3 0 3 6 D 6 9 9 24 SD 3 3 0 6 Total 42 45 39 126 Sources: Field survey (2019)

Table 7: Result of ANOVA Analysis Source of variation Sum of Square df Mean Square F Between 801.6 2 400.8 34.85 Within 138 12 11.5 Total 939.6 14 Source: Computed by the researcher (2019)

Decision: Reject null hypothesis. Therefore, the study concludes that creative accountinghas a significant influence on the share market price of Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria.

H03: The adoption of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) has not significantly reduced the practice of creative accounting among Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria

Table 8: Influence of IFRS adoption on practice of creative accounting Options Accountant Auditors Managers Total SA 10 11 7 28 A 23 15 21 59 U 2 6 2 10

D 7 10 9 26 SD 0 3 0 3 Total 42 45 39 126

Sources: Field survey (2019)

190

An Analysis of the Practices of Creative Accounting, Implications and Prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Northeast Nigeria

Table 9: Results of ANOVA Analysis Source of variation Sum of Square df Mean Square F Between 624.8 2 312.4 57.85 Within 64.8 12 5.4 Total 689.6 14 Sources: Computed by researcher (2019)

Decision: Reject null hypothesis. Therefore, the study concludes that the adoption of IFRS has significantly reduced the practice of creative accounting among Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria.

Discussion of Results

Table 3 shows the result of the analysis of the responses in respect of various questions stated in the questionnaire served. The study revealed that MDBs in the states practice creative accounting. This is corroborated by the fact that 55% of the respondents in Adamawa State, 50% in Gombe State and 58% in Taraba State were of the view that MDBs practice creative accounting. In terms of motivations for the practice of creative accounting among MDBs; 66% of the respondents in Adamawa State, 74% in Gombe State and 53% in Taraba State established that MDBs practice creative accounting to attract more investors. Also Table 5 depicts the result relating to testing of hypothesis one. The outcome indicates that MDBs practice creative accounting with the aim of attracting more investors. This result is in agreement with the findings of Henry (2004) who has reported that unscrupulous managers employ creative accounting techniques to report financial performance of organisations above the actual performance in order to attract more investors. The study also found that the frequent change in accounting policies by the banks is to allow for creative accounting. The survey result in Table 3 above confirmed this where 70% of the respondents in Adamawa State, 67% in Gombe State and 88% in Taraba State agreed to the statement. This result complements the work of Gowthorpe and Perraman (2003) which examined the technique of creative accounting. The study concludes that creative accounting using changes in accounting policies technique does exist. The result of the test of hypothesis two in Table 7 indicates that the practice of creative accounting affect share-market price. This confirms the views of respondents presented in Table 3. The outcome in Table 3 shows that 80% of the respondents in Adamawa State, 76% in Gombe State and 58% in Taraba State were of the view that creative accounting affects market price of shares. The finding is in line with the work of Collingwood (1991) who claim that creative accounting is being practiced purposely to enhance share price value. In terms of the effect of creative accounting on economic decision making of the users of financial statement, 64% of respondents in Adamawa State, 69% in Gombe State and 63% in Taraba State agreed that the practice of creative accounting affects the economic decision making of the users of financial statement. Since majority of the stakeholders rely on the information provided in the financial report, and this information is being distorted by unscrupulous managers, it will definitely affect the decision making of the users of the financial statement.

191

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

The result of the test of hypothesis 3 in table 9 and the analysis in table 3 show that the adoption of IFRS, raising penalty on the practice of creative accounting and streamlining of accounting standards and principles will help to reduce the practice of creative accounting among MDBs in the study area. These are evident from the survey data presented in table 3 above, where 65% of the respondents established that the adoption of IFRS reduces practice of creative accounting, 68% were of the view that penalties on the practice of creative accounting should be raised, and 58% were of the view that accounting standards/principles/rules should be streamline to reduce the level of abuse in the choice and management judgement. The result is in line with the finding of Ikpefan and Akande (2012) who are of the belief that IFRS has indeed shaped accounting framework by its provisions for recognition, measurement, presentation and disclosure requirements relating to transactions and events that are reflected in the financial statements. Furthermore, Taiwo and Adejare (2014) show that there is a strong positive relationship between the adoption of IFRS and financial statement format including indication that the application of IFRS has reduced earnings management practices.

The result in table 3 shows that the highest percentage of the respondents (55%) in Adamawa State and (52%) in Gombe State were of the view that the MDBs that practice creative accounting were up to four (4) while the respondent in Taraba State were of the view that the MDBs that practice creative accounting were not up to four (4) but range between two (2) and three (3). These results imply that at least two (2) MDBs in each state are practising creative accounting.

Conclusion

The outcome of the analyses made in the above session, clearly indicates that the managements of Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria practice creative accounting with the main motive of attracting more investors. The survey report presented in table 3 and the result of ANOVA analysis in table 5 indicate Fc of 12.09, which is greater than the Ft of 3.89. Furthermore, the stakeholders agreed that the management use the techniques of creative accounting to boost share market price. The analysis on this issue in Table 3 and the result of ANOVA analysis in Table 7 revealed an Fc value of 34.85, which is equally greater than Ft value of 3.89. This practice adversely affects decision making of the users of financial statement. In order to determine whether the adoption of IFRS among Money Deposit Banks has reduced the practice of creative accounting; the survey information presented in Table 3 and the result of ANOVA analysis in Table 9 revealed an Fc of 57.85 which is greater than Ft of 3.89. This implies that the adoption of IFRS among Money Deposit Banks in Nigeria has significantly reduced the practice of creative accounting.

Given the above findings, the practice of creative accounting is unethical, therefore, it should be discouraged. Accountants in Nigerian banks and other sectors in general, should hold high ethical standards and maintain integrity in all their professional dealings. They need to ensure that the accounting profession rests on ethical principles and values, commanding national and international respect; unscrupulous practice of creative accounting should therefore, be stopped by bank managers.

192

An Analysis of the Practices of Creative Accounting, Implications and Prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Northeast Nigeria

Reference Abiodun, T.A., Sunday, K.J., Stephen, A.A.S. & Gabriel, J.M.O. (2012). The nature, techniques and prevention of creative accounting: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Canadian Journal of Accounting and Finance, 1(1): 26-31

Adefila, J.J. (2014). Statistical Techniques For Data Analysis, Demystify Presentation. 1st Edition, BW right Integrated Publishers Ltd. 29, Adenuga Street, Kongi-Bodija, Ibadan, Nigeria

Adetayo, J.A. & Ajiga, O. F. (2017). Creative Accounting Practices among Nigeria Listed Commercial Banks: Curtailing Effect of IFRS Adoption, Journal of Resources Development and Management, 38(1):1-15.

Adetoso, J.A & Fredrick, A.O. (2017). Creative accounting practices among Nigerian Listed Commercial Banks: Curtailing effect of IFRS adoption. Journal of resources development and management, 38(1): 54-63

Akenbor, C.O. & Ibanichuka, E.A.L. (2012). Creative accounting practice in Nigerian Banks. African Research Review: An International Multidisciplinary Journal, Ethopia, 6(3): 23-41.

Alam, A.K.M. & Sahabub (1988). Creative Accounting-Is it Leading us Towards a Stock Market Crash? The Cost and Management, the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 16(5):5-7l.

Amat, O. & Blake, J. (1999) Contabdidad Creative, Barcelona: Gestion 2000

Amat, O., Gowthorpe, C. & Perraman, J. (2003). Earning Management in Spain: An Assessment of the Effect on Reported Earnings of Larger Listed Companies 1999-2001, Economic Working Paper Series, Universitate Pompeu Fabra

Aremu, J. A. & Bello, M (2004). Creative Accounting and Financial Scandals. International Journal of Accountancy; 17 (2): 143-147.

Bankole, K.O., Ukolobi, I.O. & McDubus, O.F. (2018). Creative accounting practices and shareholders wealth. international Accounting and Taxation Research Group, Faculty of Management Sciences, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria, 2(4):58-74

Barnea, A., Ronen, J. & Sadan, S. (1976). Classificatory Smoothing of Income with Extraordinary Items. The Accounting Review, January: 110-122

Black, E. L., Sellers, K. L. & Manly, T. S., (1998). Creative Accounting Using Asset Sales: An International Study of Countries allowing non-current assets Revaluation. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting. 25 (9): 1287-1317.

Blake, J. (1999). The Ethics of Creative Accounting‖; Journal of Economic Literature; December

Collingwood, H. (1991). Why K-Mart’s Good News isn’t. Business Week, March, 1991, 18:40

Copeland, R. M. (1968). Income Smoothing, Journal of Accounting Research, 6(2): 101-116.

193

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Domash, H. (2002). How to Detect Creative Accounting: Detecting accounting shenanigans, Available at www.winninginvesting.com

Fox, J. (1997). Learn to Play the Earnings Game, Fortune, 31 July Gounin, L. (1991) L’art de Presenter Unbilan, La Tribune

Gramlich, J. D., McAnally, M. L. and Thomas, J. (2001). Balance Sheet Management: The Case of Short-term Obligations Reclassified as Long-term Debt,Journal of Accounting Research, 39(2): 283-295

Grover, A. (1991b) Dances with debts: Why Orion is reeling. Business Week, 12 August: 56 Henry, D. (2004). Fuzzy Numbers”, Business Week, December 4: 5-10 ICAN Study Pact (2009). Financial reporting and ethics. VI Publishers, Lagos-Nigeria Ikpefan, O.A & Akande, A.O (2012). IFRS benefits, obstacles and intrigues for implementation in Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(10):143-153. Merchant, K. A. (1990). The Effects of Financial Controls on Data Manipulation and Management Myopia, Accounting, Organization and Society. 15(4): 297-313.

Merchant, K. A. & Rockness, J. (1994). The Ethics of Managing Earnings: an empirical Investigation. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 13(1):79-94

Naser, K. and Pendlebury, M. (1992). A note on the use of Creative Accounting.British Accounting Review, 24(1): 111-118

Naser, K. (1993). Creative Financial Accounting: Its Nature and Use. Hemel Hempstead: Prentice Hall

Niskanen, J. & Keloharju, M. (2000). Earning Cosmetics in a Tax-Driven Accounting Environment: Evidence from Finish Public Firms. The European Accounting Review, 9(3): 443-452

Osazevbaru, H. O. (2012). Creative Accounting and Firm’s Market value in Nigeria. Kuwait Chapter of Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 2(3):12-25.

Osisioma, B. C. & Enahoro, J. A. (2006). Creative Accounting and Option of Total Quality Accounting in Nigeria. Journal of Global Accounting, 2 (1); 5-15

Sanusi, B. & Izedonmi, P. F. (2013). Nigerian commercial banks and creative accounting practices, Journal of Mathematical Finance, 4(1): 75-83.

Schiff, D. (1993). The Dangers of Creative Accounting Worth, March, 92 – 94.

Schipper, K. (1989). A Commentary on Earning Management. Accounting Horizons ,3(4), pp. 91- 102

194

An Analysis of the Practices of Creative Accounting, Implications and Prevention among Money Deposit Banks in Northeast Nigeria

Sen, K. D. & Inanga, L. E. (2004). Creative Accounting in Bangladesh and Global Perspectives. Inanga @ msm.nl.

Sydserff, R. & Weetman, P. (1999). A texture index for evaluating accounting narratives: An alternative to readability formulae. Accounting, Auditing and Accountancy Journal, 12 (4): 459 - 488

Taiwo, F. H. & Adejare, A.T. (2014). Empirical Analysis of the Effect of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on accounting practice in Nigeria. Journal of the Society for Science and Education, United Kingdom, 2(2):16-29. Available at: http://www.scholarpublishing.org/index.php/ABR/articlesview143.

Van, C. T. (2002). Creative Accounting Induced by Cognitive Reference Points. British Accounting Review, 34(1):167-178

Vladu, A. B. & Matiş, D. (2010). Corporate governance and creative accounting: two concepts strongly connected? Some interesting insights highlighted by constructing the internal history of a literature. Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series of economica, 12(1):1-18.

195

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Persuasive Communication as a Tool of Politics and Electoral Victory

1Gbaden Jacob Chiakaan, PhD, 2William Musa Madaki and 3Juliana Sibei Shammah

1Department of Mass Communication Taraba State University, Jalingo. 2Department of Mass Communication, Nasarawa State Polytechnic, Lafia. 3Department of General Studies Nasarawa State Polytechnic, Lafia.

Abstract

This paper is titled: Persuasive Communication: A Tool of Politics and Winning Elections. The aim of the paper is to bring to bear the fact that politics leading to election victory by Politian’s cannot be possible without effective application of persuasive communication. The paper is anchored on two theoretical postulations of hierarchy of human needs and uses and gratification. Data were mainly collected from secondary sources particularly textbooks and other written documents and contextually presented and analyzed. The data analyzed, in this regard, revealed that political debate, advertising, campaign rallies are fundamental strategies of the political process aimed at winning elections. The paper goes further to discuss the relevance of persuasive communication in politics noting that where political office seekers fail to employ the weapon of persuasive communication, they can fail. The paper, therefore recommends, among others, research as a way of finding out what are the needs of the electorates. It also advices political candidates embarking on persuasive communication to be mindful of certain variables on their part such as their credibility, personality traits, charisma, power and so on.

Keywords: Persuasion, Communication, Politics, Government and Elections.

Introduction

Politics can never be successfully carried out without the sound usage of persuasive communication. This means that persuasive communication is an indispensable tool of obtaining political victory. This position derives its strength from the fact that for people to support a political party or a political candidate to win election and form a government they must be communicated to persuasively. Still, persuasive communication can be deployed as a weapon of attracting support for a government so that such a government can succeed. In this regard, persuasive communication can be used to build and sustain support for government in power. It was, historically, used by the military to prolong itself in power in Nigeria. Particularly, in the days of General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, Comrade Ckukwu Merije was saddledwith the responsibility of persuading Nigerians and the international community to support the annulment of the famous June 12, 1993 presidential election (Chiakaan, 1997).The Sani Abacha led military junta which later came into power as a result of the eventual failure of the Babangida's regime, was not left out in the usage of persuasive communication to seek relevance and support from Nigerians and the international community. This can be noticed in his political communication programmes as exemplified in his Youth Earnestly Ask for Abacha (YEAA).

The same persuasive communication that was used by the nationalists in the emancipation of Nigeria from colonization was still adopted by the pro-democrats in pushing the military out of

196

Persuasive Communication as a Tool of Politics and Electoral Victory power and installing democracy. In the struggle for the entrenchment of democracy in Nigeria, pro-democrats persuasively informed their fellow Nigerians why they should not support the military. They convincingly persuaded Nigerians to be ready to die in other to send the military out of power. Different fora were used; they used both oral and written communications; they used the mass media dominantly instigating Nigerians and the international community against the military. The use of persuasive communication or communication generally for the sake of winning power, maintaining power and sustaining power is what is referred to as political communication.

In his attempt at uncovering strategies for winning public support for an issue, Jimoh (2004) in Chiakaan and Chile (2015, p.62) state:

Yet persuasive strategies are needed to carry both the masses and critical sections of the society such as the mass media. In stressing this importance, notable political writer, Mcnair (1995:45) notes that “Political Communication is too important to be ignored by those with concern for the working of modern democracies.

Since persuasive communication is a very important instrument of politics, it means it has to be studied so that it can be successfully applied by government, political parties and politicians seeking elections. This is what this paper is all about. In order to be more holistic, however, the paper is presented under the following sub-themes:

i. Politics, Election and Persuasive Communication in Perspective. ii. Theoretical fran1ework iii. Relevance of Persuasive Communication in Politics. iv. ApplyingPersuasiveCom1nunicationtoWinElection v. Summary and Conclusion

Politics, Election and Persuasive Communication in Perspective

Politics, like many other concepts, has no single definition. On a general note, however, whenever the term politics is mentioned, one thing comes to mind first; that thing is power. Politics is commonly inclined to acquiring power and exercising that power. Since it is concerned with power acquisition and distribution, which concerns everybody in the society, Aristotle is always quoted as to have said that man is a political animal. Osuji (2001,p.7), on this note, attests to this when he says:

This is exactly what Aristotle said, hence it is evidence that the state is a creation of nature, and that man is by nature a political animal. And he who by nature and not by more accident is without state, is either a bad man or above humanity, he is like the troubles, lawless, heartless one whom Homer denounces the natural outcast is for a cover of war, he may be compared as an isolated piece at draught (sic). Now that man is more of a political animal than bees or any other gregarious animal is evident. Nature as we often say, makes nothing in vain, and man is the only animal whom she has endowed with the gift of speech.

197

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

The society or state man belongs to, lives and survive s by politics for the benefit of man. This means that the society cannot just be left like that; it must be governed for the betterment of man. The decision of what kind of government to be in place, how such a government can be formed, and the sustenance of that government is what everybody participates in directly or indirectly. This explains Aristotle's position that man is a political animal. In his article on Critical Factors in Political Public Relations and Marketing, Utor (2012,p.42 -43) posits that:

Politics on the other hand refers to the process of governance. According to the dictionary of American government and politics, it is an art or science of governance. It is also the means by which the will of a community is derived and implemented. Furthermore, it is the activities of a government, politician, or political party. A more functional definition proffered by the same book is to the effect that politics is the pursuit and exercise of the political process necessary to make binding policy decision for the community and to distribute patronage and other government benefits.

Politics is not different from what has already being said based on the foregoing discussion. Activities of government are inclined to politics, activities of politicians and political parties are inclined to politics. These activities are aimed at acquiring political power in order to take decisions necessary for the wellbeing of individuals and their entire community or state. Politics has also been defined by Oakshott (1963) in Udoakah, (2003,p.18) as “...a set of activities attending to the general arrangement of a set of people and the act of settling the affairs of the society through rational discussion and decision.” Accor ding to this definition, politics is concerned with a set of activities which are inclined to the general public. Politics involves discussion about the affairs of society aimed at arriving at better decisions.

Politics, on this note, means series of actions or activities which people in our society embark upon with the aim of acquiring power. The power aimed at acquiring, as can be inferred, is broad. It can be political power, it can be economic power, it can be religious power and it can be social power. Of course, of all these forms of power, political power appears to be the greatest. This is because political power, according to political scientists is the ability to control and determine the allocation of scarce resources in the country. This belief informs Wiseman (1966) in Udoakah (1996) to state that “Politics is the striving to share power or influence the distribution of power or the power to make authoritative decisions such as distribution, maintenance or transfer of such power.”

There is a struggle for power in politics. The aim is to share or influence the distribution of power to people. Another aim is to acquire power in order to make authoritative decisions concerning the distribution, maintenance or transfer of such power. Politics, on the basis of the available definitions noted above, one can say, is an exercise which i s concerned with acquiring power, especially political power. This definition derives its strength from the fact that one with administrative or leadership power can equally possess or influence economic and social power.

In struggling to acquire power, people engage in different activities, they also employ different strategies. Of course, using Nigeria as a case study, people, through political parties make

198

Persuasive Communication as a Tool of Politics and Electoral Victory use, on a serious note, of persuasive communication through the mass media. By so doing the mass media themselves are deeply involved in politics. Citing Alan Ball (1977), Udoakah (2003, p.4) notes:

...Lord Windelsham to have said that the most successful tactics employed by the conservative party to change a hostile electorate into one, more favourable to the party between 1957 and 1959 was the use of party activities at the local levels without first attempting to use the mass media techniques at the disposal of the party.

The point to note here is the fact that political parties make use of the mass media in order to mobilize people, both in urban and rural areas, towards supporting them. The mass media, in this regard, embark on a number of activities aimed at reaching the masses with political messages. One way they do this is by producing political advertising. Balland (1989) cited in Udoakah (2003,p.5) states that political advertising is the “paid placement of organisation messages in the media.” This means that political advertising is the purchase and use of advertising space or airtime messages to a mass audience. Udoakah, in line with the foregoing discourse, observes thus:

Political and advertising is now the major means by which candidates and their parties communicate their messages to voters. It has constituted the mainstream of modern electoral politics. It disseminates information about the candidates and parties details, which journalists would not give. These advertisement, like product and service advertisement do not inform but are designed to persuade.

Politicians and their political parties embark on campaigns in order to win the favour and support of the electorates so that they can gain political power. Campaigns leading to elections, therefore, become one way through which power isacquired and distributed. This is technically referred to as political process. Election, on this note, is one of the political processes. On a broader note, political process, Osuji (2001,p.9) states, “involves the activities of politicians, administrators, elected official bureaucrats in the organization or administration of political actions in the interest of the people.” Osuji goes further to state that political process includes formation of political parties and their organization, holding of elections, giving responsibilities to those hold in g political offices either elected or appointed, 1naking of rules and regulations, by laws, constitution, amending them and so on.

Particularly, in a democratic set up, government cannot be formed without election being conducted. In this regard, election i s a process in which people vote to choose a person or group of people to hold an official position on their behalf . We all participate in elections in order to choose people as presidents, governors, assembly members, local government chairmen, councilors and so on.

Before election is conducted, campaign is normally carried out by political parties and their candidates in order to convince people or the electorates to vote them into power. The campaign period is a period that gives room for political candidates to swim persuasive communication and communication generally into action in order to seek followership and

199

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 votes from the electorates or members of the public . Communication plays a dominant role in this regard, in the whole political process.

Without members of the public being persuasively communicated to, political candidates will hardly win elections. Persuasive communication, therefore, is a conscious and deliberate efforts by a communicator to influence a communicattee to take a decision that is in The favour of the communicator. Ajala (2001, p.65) offering a somewhat similar definition, states:

To put “persuasive communication” into focus, a conscious effort made by someone ·with the aim of influencing the thoughts or actions of another person is persuasive communication. It is a communication process which the communicator seeks to elicit a desired response, or attempts to influence the behaviour of the listener...

When political parties, when political office seekers deliberately or consciously attempt to influence the electorates or the masses to vote for them so that they can win election, iti s persuasive communication. Generally, the usage of communication to win election or do well in an election is referred to as political public relations. According to Osuji (200 1:13) political public relations:

Is that aspect of public relations that is used in furtherance of political process. It may cover very many areas of political processes, party formation, political campaign, membership drive, public and private political communications, image building, influence, lobbying, legislative proceedin.gs, executive relationship with various societal groups etc.

Theoretical Framework

This paper adopts two theories of uses and gratification as well as the hierarchy of human needs.

The Theory of Hierarchy of Human Needs

The Hierarchy of human needs theory is one of the theories of human motivation invented in the 20th century by a psychologist, Abraham Maslow. It is so called because it explains the motives why consumers react positively to an advert message. Of course, the theory appreciates the fact that peoples’ reaction to an advert message is strongly motivated by the ability of such a message to provide them with any of their needs which are hierarchically inclined. Maslow, on this note, reiterates the position of economists that human wants are numerous and as such are based on preference (scale of preference) so that attaining the m i s done according to their importance. Consequently, his theory recognizes five basic levels of human needs which are arranged hierarchically on the basis of their importance (Belch and Belch, 2001,p.110). These five needs include:

Physiological Needs: These needs ·are primary needs. They are things which human beings require in order to sustain life. Needs in the category are food, shelter, clothes, sex, and so on.

Safety: After primary needs, human beings become conscious of their security and protection.

200

Persuasive Communication as a Tool of Politics and Electoral Victory

Social Needs: Human beings want to belong to groups. They want to establish relationships with others. The reason is to be loved and accepted. On this note, love, affection, belonging, and acceptance are the social needs which human beings try to acquire after they feel secured and protected from harm.

Esteem Needs: The needs in this category, are self-esteem, recognition and status. Here, human beings want to posses certain things in order to have a sense of accomplishment and gain recognition or popularity and status. Some people do not want to be rich but they want to be famous. Some people want respect, when they acquire this desire, they feel accomplished.

Self -actualization Needs: Another name for self-actualization is self-fulfillment. When all other needs are attained, human beings have a feeling that they have actualized their desire in life. This is what is referred to as self-fulfillment or self-actualization.

The needs at the lower level, according to this theory, are more important and as such must be acquired first. After them, the ones on the second, third, fourth, and fifth levels can be attained. Even though, as Belch and Belch (2001) observe, Ma slow theory is not perfect, it is a good theory that can be of benefit to persuasive communicators especially political parties and their candidates seeking the support of electorates to win elections and form government. Where they promise performing effectively so that these wants as pointed out by the Maslow theory of hierarchy of human needs can be achieved, they can succeed in influencing the voting behavior of the electorates. This theory is, therefore, relevant to this discourse.

Uses and Gratification Theory

People have needs which must be realized. Of course, this is the concern of the uses and gratification theory. This theory propounded by Elihu Katz in 1959, holds that it is not the people who exist f or the media but instead that it is the media that exist for the people. The fundamental question here, Katz asks is: What do people do with media? The response he provides is that people are very rational in patronizing the media. They use the media du e to the social and psychological benefits they can derive from them. Mass mediated messages can only influence people on the basis of how appealing they are to their needs. Acknowledging Katz, Blumler, and Gurevitch (1974), Littlejohn (1999, p.345) declares:

Compared with classical effects studies, the uses and gratification approach takes the media consumer rather than the media message as its starting point and explores his communication behaviour in terms of his direct experience with the media. Thus, it does not assume a direct relationship between messages and effects, but instead that members of the audience put messages to use, and that such usages act as intervening variables in the process of effect.

McQuail (1994, p.320) provides a list containing motives for and satisfaction which people derive from the media use. They include: i. Getting information and advice ii. Reducing personal insecurity iii. Learning about society and the world iv. Finding support for one own life

201

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 v. Gaining insight into one own life vi. Experiencing empathy with problems of others vii. Having a substitute for social contact viii. Feeling connected with others ix. Escaping from problems and worries x. Gaining entry into an imaginary world. xi. Filling time xii. Experiencing emotional release xiii. Acquiring a structure of daily routine

Where people perceive a media message as not offering them any gratification , they can shun it thereby avoiding the effect such a message can exercise on them.

One problem critics have with this theory is its refusal to appreciate influence which communication media exercise on their audience unconsciously especially in this modern world. Of course, it is still the belief of critics that an individual’s personality can sometime s influence his patronage and n o t his needs. In spite of these criticisms, the truth is that any persuasive massage that fails to reflect the various needs or problems which people encounter in life is bound to suffer lack of patronage significantly.

These two theories are relevant to this discussion because member s of the public otherwise referred to as electorates cannot be successfully persuaded by those seeking political offices in their campaigns without promising them what they will benefit from them if they vote them into power. Parties’ manifestoes must be based on the needs of the people. Former American President, Barrack Obama promised Americans, among other things, strong security, combating terrorism and a strong and viable economy. The current American President, Donald Trump’s Campaign slogan “America for America” meaning returning the American country to people who are real Americans, people who are American citizen by birth and making America to remain the world’s biggest economy and otherwise, contributed to his victory at the polls. Since these were what the Americans were really after, they voted him into power.

Goodluck Ebere Jonathan promised Nigerians, among other things, a strong economy, viable power and energy sector, which made them to vote for him in 2010. After spending almost four years in office, Nigerians could not derive these benefits; they voted him and his PDS out of power bringing in All Progressive Party under Mohammadu Buhari as President.

Relevance of Persuasive Communication in the Political Process

From what has been said so far, it can be deduced that persuasive communication is an indispensable tool in the political process. Beginning with party formation and organization, holding of elections, giving responsibilities to those elected or appointed, making rules and regulations, bylaws, constitution, amending them and so on, persuasive communication is relevant.

For a party to be formed, individuals must convince themselves as to why they have to come together to form it and what will be the manifesto of their party. The party has to persuasively, base on its manifesto, influence members of the public to join it. This same party and

202

Persuasive Communication as a Tool of Politics and Electoral Victory its candidates for election, must go out persuading members of the public to vote it into power. The entire electoral process is dominated by persuasive communication. Expressing his views on the subject matter of political campaign: Making Meanings and Creating Images, Oso (2003, p.147) posits:

The nature off the “war” that is politic s, is seen openly displayed during the period of elections when the contending parties and their candidates attempt to win the hearts of the people to their views, perspectives or ideologies using campaigns, debates etc.

Persuasive communication is very exigent because it helps, political candidates to win the hearts of the people. During political campaigns, the electorates are presented with the images of what kind of environment a party can create for them if voted into power. In many in stances, each party tries to oppose the ideas or discredit the ideas of other parties so as to win the support and followership of the electorates. On this note, Oso (2003, p.148) says further:

Political campaign is essentially a process of meanings and images communication. Resources are deployed in creating messages either seeking support and/or discrediting the position, views and ideology of opponents. The mass media are the main channels for publicly communicating messages and symbols of the competing parties and individuals involved in the campaigns to the general populace.

Even though there are different avenues or form so fusing communication persuasively to influence the electorates and win elections or do well at elections, them as s media appear to be the major elements of reaching members of the public with persuasive messages about political candidates and party activities generally. By using the mass media, almost every member of the public becomes aware of the parties seeking elections, their manifestoes and their candidates. This is very important as it influences them to vote for them or not.

Politicians seeking votes embark on debate, advertising and other persuasive strategiestoinfluencefollowershipandvotesfrommemberofthepublic.A research conducted by Paul Lazarsfield in the 60swhich later spurred further research by communication scholars showed that political campaign through the media was capable of influencing the voting behaviour of many Americans. Oso (2003), in this regard, still posits:

Another important development in contemporary thinking about media and campaign was the agenda setting, introduced after research on the 1968 presidential elections. Agenda setting was used to explain how media can influence campaigns and voting. Media helped set the issue or agenda for the campaign and that agenda dictated the issues on which many people ultimately based their voting decisions.

Through campaigns inform of debate and advertising, members of the public are influenced by political office seekers. In the 1993, the television debate between Moshood Abiola and Bashir Tofa helped in influencing the voting attitudes of Nigerians in favour of the acclaimed winner of that annulled elections, Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

203

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Applying Persuasive Communication in Winning Elections

If we have all agreed that persuasive communication is a very powerful apparatus for winning elections, it means, therefore, that it is imperative to master how it can be applied to achieve positive results. Basically, the foundation upon which every successful persuasive communication must be built is research. The political candidate must find out what are the needs of the people seeking their votes or support. Needs are uncountable, in this regard, he must identify the basic ones. Having identified their needs, he must determine what language and what channel or channels he can use in reaching them. Significantly, the audience must be studied and properly understood.

Folarin (1998) partly summarises this position by advising that the persuader should carry out the analysis of the audience, using the right people to carry his message to his communicattees where he is to make use of other people as his representatives, and select the appropriate media to include direct media, group media, modern mass media, traditional media. Political candidates must be conscious of certain factors associated with them that can make them succeed or fail in their persuasive communication. Ajala (2001, p.65) identifies and explains them under the influence of the communicator. They include:

Source Credibility: Credibility, in this regard, should be held as set of perceptions the receivers (electorates) hold about the source, in this case, the politician. Do they trust you? Do they perceive you as having the expertise, prestige, and competence, authoritativeness and character to represent them or to be entrusted with political power? All these put together, make a political product credible or otherwise in the eyes of the electorates.

Personality Traits of the Source: Communicattees or the people being persuaded are more likely to change from a negative to a positive position if they perceive the political product as pleasant, kind, friendly, fair, forgiving, calm, patient and selfless.

Charisma of the Source: If the source or political candidate seeking election does not possess the leadership charisma; that special magical power that is not easy to define, he can hardly influence some electorates. President Kennedy appeared on Television to have more Charisma than Richard Nixon who rather appeared old or weak in the 1960 presidential debate in America (Dominick, 1991)

Beauty or Attractiveness of Source: A political candidate seeking election who appears ugly and unattractive can hardly elicit greater attitude change in the message being received. Ajala notes that this explains why it is generally believed that when celebrities ta l k, people listen. Where the source of a message is perceived as beautiful or handsome, receivers are more likely to identify with him.

Power of Source: Where the source is perceived by the receivers as possessing the power to exert over another or others, it can make him to be more successful in his communication. There is financial power, academic power, knowledge power and soon. Where apolitical candidate is perceived as having these power, he can also be successful in persuading the electorates to vote for him in an election.

204

Persuasive Communication as a Tool of Politics and Electoral Victory

These factors discussed above are styled by Ajala as the qualities of the source of persuasive messages. Ajala still goes ahead to offer other tips that can be helpful to those willing to apply persuasive communication or political public relations to win elections or score a political point. The tips are: i. Emotional Appeals: Humour, warmth and sometimes fear, do some times have more effect than logical appeals. ii. Form/style of presentation of message particularly gesture codes such as smile, shrug, gaze, blink, eye contact, head movement etc. May play major roles in attitude change of subordinates. iii. Drawing conclusion in communication is more effective than leaving audience to draw their own conclusion. iv. Repetition of the message within limits may reinforce message effect. v. Primary and recency affect message impact. What is heard or seen first and last are psychologically more important than what is in the middle. vi. Particularly in face-to-face communication, both how the message is said and, non-verbal, non-linguistic forms of communication help toensure message effectiveness. Even the clothes worn, by the communicator, the smell that emanates from the communicator, go a long way in ensuring message acceptance and adherence to instructions.

Concluding Remarks

Politics is broad but in this paper, we have reduced it to whatever arrangements or efforts being made by political office seekers and their parties to win elections. The entire political process is dominated by persuasive communication. Political parties need to persuade the electorates, based on their programmes to influence their voting behavior in the parties favour. Political parties should, therefore, never hesitate to employ persuasive communication otherwise referred to as political public relations to influence voters’ voting behaviour.

During elections, political candidates and their parties can employ advertising and public debate using the mass media, particularly radio and television to influence the opinions and attitudes of the electorates. The mass media are, therefore, indispensable political tools. Politicians should also use other media like traditional media, direct media, group and multi-media to influence favourable voting attitudes of the electorates.

Of course, for politicians to be successful in persuading voters effectively, they must identify, through research, what are the key needs of such voters and use them as a weapon of influencing them. They must be perceived, in this regard, by the electorates as being credible, having the right personality traits, charisma, being beautiful or attractive and possessing power. They should be able to apply the right persuasive strategies by presenting their messages repeatedly particularly in an emotionally and stylish manner.

205

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

References Ajala, V. O. (2001). Public relations: In search of professional excellence, 2nd ed. Ibadan: Maybest Publications.

Baran, S.J. (2004). Introduction to mass communication: Media literacy and culture, 3rd Ed. New York: McGraw Hill.

Belch, G.E. and Belch, M.A. (2001). Advertising and promotion: An integrated marketing communications perspective, 6th ed. New York. McGraw Hill.

Chiakaan, G.J. (1997). “Public relations as a crisis management tool: Focus on the annulled 1992 presidential election. An undergraduate project submitted to the department of mass communication, Benue State University, Makurdi Nigeria.

Chiakaan, G.J. and Chile, T.C (2015), Modern public relations: Theory and practice. Makurdi: Azaben publishers.

Dominick, J. (1991). The dynamics of mass communication. New York. McGraw Hill. Folarin, B. (1998). Issues in applied communication. Ibadan: Stirling-Horden Publishers (Nig.) Ltd.

Jibo, M. (1996). Politics, mass media and national development. Lagos: Malthouse Press Ltd.

Littlejohn, S. (1999). Theories and human Communication. Ohio: Bell and Howell. Oso, L. (2003). “Political campaign: Making meanings and creating images” In PR Globalization and other Issues: Image Maker PR journal. Ogun State Chapter of NIPR, No. 5, pp.7.

Osuji, C. (2001). Political public relations. Owerri: Opinion Research and Communications, Inc.

Udoakah, N. (2003). Government and the media in Nigeria. Calabar: Centre Press.

Utor, M. T. (2012). “Critical factors in political public relations and marketing.” In Public Relations Journal. Nigerian Institute of Public Relations (NIPR). Vol. 8, No. 1.

206

Farmers’ Perception of Effectiveness of Radio Programmes in Promoting Fadama Agricultural Policy in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State

AGBOOLA, Abdulhameed Kayode1 and KOLO, Muhammad Idris1

1Department of Information and Media Technology, School of Information and Communication Technology, Federal University of Technology, Minna [email protected]

Abstract

This study has investigated Farmers’ perception of effectiveness of radio programmes in promoting Fadama agricultural policy amongst farmers in Chanchaga community in Lavun local government area of Niger State. The study used self-developed survey questionnaire to collect data from 109 Fadama beneficiaries in Lavun Local Governement Area of the State. The respondents were asked in the questionnaire as to whether they have a radio transistor of their own, listened and following the Fadama extension programme on the radio. The response rate was 95%. Overall findings show that the majority 91% respondents owned and listened to Fadama programmes on radio, while 68% of the respondents claimed that the programme is very important to them, whereas 83% of the respondents declared that the programme has improved their knowledge in farming. Also, 84% of the respondents said that the programme has been effective so far. The study concluded that radio is an essential channel in promoting agricultural development because it has been able to disseminate information on new technologies on farming, livestock and fishery among others. Also, information gets to the people at the grassroots and rural communities. Finally, the study recommends that number of weekly broadcast of Fadama programmes radio stations should be increased, at least twice in a week and that the Federal Government should create funds to sustain the Fadama programmes and the radio programmes used to disseminate the Fadama Agricultural extension services.

Keywords: Agriculture, agricultural extension, community radio, fadama and farmer.

Introduction

The world over radio has been identified and certified as the most popular and commonly used medium of mass communication to disseminate development information to rural communities. Radio is the most reliable communication medium which covers a broader area and can reach huge number of audiences. As a medium of mass communication, radio is cost effective, accessible, reliable, affordable, and portable in terms of transmission and portability. It is a transmitting channel with the ability to reach diverse people using different languages. Radio broadcasting was first introduced to Nigeria in 1932 as a relay system of the British Broadcasting Service (Sharma, 2008).

However, radio can be used to perform various functions such as educating the masses on dominant issues of socializing, entertaining as well as informing them through surveillance of government policies and activities concerning their well-being. The radio can also function as a medium of ensuring peaceful co-existence and promoting culture, various institutions and national subdivisions such as the agricultural sector (Baran, 2009).

207

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Radio broadcast is fast and reaches out simultaneously to a larger audience. Regular broadcast of agricultural programmes on radio provides important information on new and modern farming methods to farmers. As the farmers take delivery of the new and modern farming techniques on radio and by applying these new techniques, gradually they bring positive changes in farming methods (Ekoja, 2003).

Radio can be a useful medium to educate farmers if it appeals to them with programmes having contemporary agricultural technologies designed and broadcast in their local dialect. However, it is important for farmers to comprehend the programmes and use the knowledge correctly (Mohammad and Hasbullah, 2010). Radio can provide vital information on agricultural practices. As rural farmers participate in radio programmes on modern agricultural technologies, they turn out to be more effective when they apply the information. Nakabugu (2001) states that radio enable farmers’ opportunities to work together and interact with related establishments or authorities (extension workers, crop scientists, animal specialists, etc) through radio programme types such as talk shows, discussions, phone-in and on the spot broadcast.

Fadama Programme: A Synoptic Review

Fadama stands for promoting sustainable agriculture and poverty reduction through empowerment of famers in Nigeria. Fadama is a Hausa name for irrigable land commonly along major river systems especially low lying plains under laid by shallow aquifers. According to Umar (2012) it is called Fadama because of its ability to preserve water, ensure prosperous grazing land which provides propitious agro ecological condition even in the dry season. Fadama provides advantages for Nigeria farmers in the production of assortment of fresh and process lofty values of crops. In addition, serves as source of water for livestock during dry season. The Babangida administration in 1993 introduced the earliest National Fadama project (Fadama 1) to encourage improved irrigation technology under World Bank financing. It was designed to cover six states (Niger, Adamawa, Jigawa, Kebbi, Oyo and FCT).

The major objectives of Fadama project is to improve the living condition of the people, reduce poverty, contribute to food security, boost agricultural production, add value for sustainable food production among small holders in rural areas. The government and NGOs have also adopted the instrument of mass media to promote rural community participation and with the ability of radio to reach diverse people, using different languages and because it is portable and easily carried about, less expensive, invulnerable to electricity and it has been adopted as a better media of achieving this aim, thus, this project seeks to ascertain the effectiveness of radio programmes in the promotion of Fadama Agricultural Policy in Rural Areas and its objectives is to see how radio has effectively influence people to participate in this programme.

As a very versatile medium, radio has been used in the promotion of various rural development policies such as health issues, agriculture and economic issues such as the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), Sensitization of Local People on Malaria, Polio Eradication, Directorate for Food Road and Rural Infrastructure (DFRRI), National Agricultural Land Development Authority (NALDA) and Local Economic Empowerment and Development Strategies (LEED). All these laudable plans, strategy and policy were attempt to attain rural development in Nigeria, hence, all these programmes were disseminated through the radio.

208

Farmers’ Perception of Effectiveness of Radio Programmes in Promoting Fadama Agricultural Policy in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State

International organizations like Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and United Nations Educational Scientific Cultural Organization (UNESCO) have been using radio as a communication vehicle in relevant fields since 1960 to enhance development (Chapman, 2003). Over the past few years in Nigeria, Agriculture extension approaches and performances have been changing. Such changes are being determined on several factors, which include policy changes in politics, involvement of Non-Governmental Organizations in financing Agricultural development programmes that grew from Agricultural projects funded by World Bank. In 1994, the World Bank project began with the main purpose of ensuring increase in food production by attaining food sufficiency and enhancing food security.

However, Nwanchukwu and Ezeh (2007) said the current Fadama Project was bestowing advisory services to farmers. Fadama project is a World Bank assisted project aimed at reducing poverty among developing nations through the promotion of agricultural practices. It is championed by the Federal Government of Nigeria to reduce unemployment and ensure availability of food to sustained citizens through empowerment of farmers with proper training and provision of equipment to boost agricultural development in Nigeria and other developing nations across Africa. This study delves to probe on the perception of radio programmes in promoting Fadama agricultural policy amongst farmers in Chanchaga Community in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State.

However, Chapman (2003) highlighted that the potency of radio as an extension instrument is extensively looked upon to slouch in its capability to reach uneducated farmers, provide them with appropriate information connecting all phases involved in agricultural production in the language they comprehend. The emphasis is that, radio as a device for agricultural growth and rural development should be able to bring positive changes in the life of the farmers by providing valuable information in the local languages spoken by the people in the community.

However, radio being the most popular gadget used for information dissemination and virtually every farmer has access to it, yet the use of appropriate local languages to disseminate information is still not completely realized because most of the farmers in Chanchaga community area are not literate and they commonly speak the local Nupe language, but barely speak little or no English language at all. It is against this backdrop that this study aims to investigate on farmers’ perceptions of effectiveness of radio programmes in promoting Fadama agricultural policy in Chanchaga Community in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State.

Therefore, the specific objectives are: i. To determine whether radio disseminates programmes on Fadama project in Niger State. ii. To determine the sources of farmers’ awareness on Fadama programme in Niger State. iii. To investigate the effectiveness of radio in disseminating information on Fadama programme to the farmers. iv. To find out about the benefits of Fadama programme on farmers in Nigeria.

209

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Significance of the Study

Several studies have been conducted on the effectiveness of radio as a medium of passing information and listener’s perception of this information. This study will reveal the effectiveness of radio programme in promoting agricultural policy in rural areas in Niger State and Nigeria in general. This study will also provide the communication gap between the government and farmers in the rural settlement. Thus, it will also examine the use of radio as a communication tool in accessing the global market.

Theoretical Framework

This study is anchored on Diffusion of Innovation Theory as first projected by Rogers in the early 1960s. It is explained as the process in which an innovation is conveyed by means of selected channels over time amongst members within a given community. The word ‘Innovation’ refers to a new concept, technique or practice while the word ‘Diffusion’ refers to the process of expanding an idea within a target group. Rogers further states that diffusion is a social type of communication process, in that messages transmitted are intended to convey new ideas, provide information and promote social change. The key elements of diffusion process include the innovation communicated through a channel over a period of time and among members of a given social system. For an individual of group of people to adopt new innovations, they have to be conscious of various stages to include awareness stage, influence stage, choice stage, endorsement stage and execution stage (Daramola, 2003). The theory originated from Law University, USA in 1943, is based in the assumption that innovation could either spread or diffuse (Daramola, 2003).

Daramola (2003, p.65) defines diffusion as “a process by which new ideas are communicated to members of a social system.” These include ideas, practice, behaviours, attitude or knowledge to be diffused to members of the social system. The term diffusion in the context of development and underdevelopment is viewed as the process by which an idea or innovation is communicated through certain channels (Onabajo, 2008). In fact, Diffusion of Innovation is all about the spread of information that is perceived as fresh concepts. It is concerned with whether the ideas are finally adopted or rejected and not just how information is received and passed as stressed by the two step flow (Aina, 2003). It equally addresses what social change the new ideas have caused. Rogers and Shoemaker (1971) defined Social change as “the process by which alteration occurs in the structure and function of a social system” (cited in Aina, 2003, p.190).

According to Edari (1976) as cited in Ogai (2003) the diffusionist theory is used to explain the process through which less privileged societies may attain development. The diffusion of innovation paradigm is the first widely accepted modal in terms of agricultural development. The theory maintains that the media have crucial roles to play in the process of transmission of innovations, because they (media) create awareness among a large number of people at the same time. Diffusion theory lays emphasis on how people process and accept information.

The theory is useful for explaining how Fadama project is an idea initiated by the Federal Government of Nigeria and as such the effect of the idea depends on how the target audience (rural farmers) conceived and put to use these ideas, hence, the diffusion theory is a frame work towards ensuring the effectiveness of radio programmes in promoting Fadama agricultural policy in rural areas especially the farmers who need to know how to use the various new farming technologies

210

Farmers’ Perception of Effectiveness of Radio Programmes in Promoting Fadama Agricultural Policy in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State brought to them. They need to understand how the technologies can help them improve their farming which would lead to improvement in their lives, the need to understand government intention if any meaningful thing could be achieved from the idea. This solely depends on how the government can navigate their ways in the minds of the people by explaining in clear terms the different new ideas brought by Fadama project through the use of radio channel.

Concept of Fadama Agricultural Extension Programme

Agricultural extension approaches and performances in Nigeria have been changing over and over in recent years. “Several factors such as political policies, changes in economic policies, involvement of Non-governmental organizations in funding Agricultural programmes among others are determinants in offering agric extension services” (Oladele 2004, p.6). At present in Nigeria, advisory services are mostly made available by Agricultural Development Programme which developed from the project financed by World Bank since 1994. With significant successes recorded in improved agricultural practices in 1995, Federal government approved its approach thereby integrated it into new Agricultural development programme. Activities of the ADP are mostly cared for by Federal and State Government while provision of advisory functions remained within Agric extension workers (Oladele, 2004).

The Agricultural Development Programme has sustained the utilization of traditionally determined approach characterized by poor financing which is less effective. This weakness has likely narrowed the impact of ADP on Agricultural practices and development of rural areas. Despite the short comings, NGOs kept offering advisory functions and funding agricultural development services. In Nigeria, the Agricultural sector has contributed immensely to the growth of the economy than other sectors after oil. Agricultural production contributes about 40% of the Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product; employs about 65% of the total population. Obtainable data indicates that in 1997, there was a boost in food production from 54.76million grains to 57.70 million grains in 2001. There was modest growth rate from 4.25% in 1997 to 4.5% in 1999 and 4.7% in 2001 (Ozor, 2009). Thus, agricultural sector hosts a challenge in sustaining the boost in agricultural production by means of eradicating the pragmatic shortfall.

However, Adeyemi, Atsu, Ndagi and Aliyu (2007) reported that, Nigeria anticipated 69.9million hectares of land for cultivation, about 39.2million under permanent pasture with another 2.8million for cultivation every year, which entails a lofty cropping power with reverence to fertile soil. Forestry represents 26million hectares while produce contribute about 27% of the Gross Domestic Product, 3.3 % for livestock. Cocoa which contributes less than 0.5 % to the agricultural Gross Domestic Product is the major farm produce for export. Rural communities in Nigeria are split into seven ecological regions, the semi-arid, found in northern region, the savannah, found in northern and middle region, mangrove in Niger Delta, fresh water swamp in Niger Delta and low land rain forest found in the south. The agro ecological setting: (i). the traditional production system, which consists of soil holding not more than a hector with variety of food crops planted mainly for consumption usually found in all parts of Nigeria, and (ii). the enhanced irrigation production system, which encompasses advanced Fadama technologies, which make use of water logged area of crops and livestock rearing, as well mechanized and large scale commercial irrigation farming (Adeyemi et al, 2007).

211

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Non-Agricultural sectors also play noteworthy part in rural source of revenue, which accounts for about half of rural household’s total income that is they achieve a huge income from other portions rural activities, meaning they are engaged in small scale ventures such as manufacturing farm equipment/tools, buying and selling, handicrafts, transportations, food processing amongst others. The Federal government of Nigeria in October 2001 embraced new agricultural guiding principles to take the place of the one endorsed in 1989 (Adeyemi et al, 2007).

As hinted by Umar (2012) Fadama is a Hausa name for irrigable land shallow low-lying plains underlay by shallow aquifer found along major river systems, such lands are especially appropriate for irrigation, fish farming and traditional means of providing feed and water for livestock. These plains are located mostly in the northern parts of Nigeria and despite the amorous potential of this land, there have been a partial attempt to develop or utilize it. Thus, it is in the light of these potentials that the Federal Government partnered through support of rural people oriented agricultural growth programme known as Fadama Development Programme. In the early 1990s, the Fadama programme was designed to promote improved irrigation technology to be funded by the World Bank to encourage simple and low-cost farming system.

Umar (2012) mentioned that the national Fadama development project was borne out of the need to ensure all year round agricultural production using available Fadama resources in Nigeria. The approach was Community Driven Development (CDD) with prominence on social inclusiveness and empowerment of the rural people to take charge of their development agenda. The project focused on increasing users, sustainable income of Fadama users via empowerment in terms of capacity building, advisory services, acquisition of productive assistance and rural infrastructural development. The social impact of the project as contained in Fadama project implementation manual is that the project will afford Fadama users either groups or individuals, the practical or technical help and advisory services in enterprise development, sourcing and management of funds, in that way assisting the beneficiaries in increasing their productivity, open and generate more avenues to increase income.

To facilitate the training of anticipated 12,000 resource users in different skills, 522 staff of Agricultural development programme as well as local government field staff need to be trained in Community Driven Development approach. The component of the project that supports infrastructural development seeks to tackle the problems of 180km of rural road to be built and rehabilitated to ease movement of goods and services by rural people. This would result to development which will facilitate beneficiary’s approach to social services, reduce labour in transporting essential farm produce to and from the markets. The construction of 750 boreholes would aid and control the water bearing rock (aquifer), by this, means guarantee of sustainable quality water supply. Also, it will provide enhanced public facilities to include safe-drinking water, building of drainages, toilet, advanced waste-disposal system at market places, by this means improving health values, reduction of water-borne disease and low morbidity rate with better labour productivity for the beneficiary’s economic actions.

The acceptance of the Fadama technologies by farmers enabled them to increase production by more than 300%. Assessment of the Fadama 1 project shows that the understanding of the project reimbursements was held back as a result of a number of short comings in the design and execution of the project. These short comings include (a) Lack of participation from project client during project preparation hence it was restricted to crop production, paying no attention to

212

Farmers’ Perception of Effectiveness of Radio Programmes in Promoting Fadama Agricultural Policy in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State value addition of processing and marketing activities of the downstream. (b) Ignoring Fadama Resources users with the government satisfaction of its achievement in the Fadama I project (c) Its approach to ADP and the support in expanding the scope of successes of Fadama 1 by International Development Association of the World Bank. This idea gave birth to Fadama II project (Ozor, 2009, p.32).

Following the successful implementation of Fadama I project, Fadama II was initiated as a follow-up around 1993-1999. In 2004 Fadama II was introduced and implemented in Adamawa, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Kebbi, Niger, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo and Imo States. It employed the instrument of Community Driven Development (CDD) approach.

Adeyemi et al (2007) noted that “it is a bottom-up tactic, which is a contradiction of top- bottom tactic employed in Fadama 1 project.” In 2003 according to World Bank, the main objectives of Fadama II project include: (a) the provision of marketing infrastructure, improving mechanisms of conflicts resolution, creation of rural non-farm enterprises and (b) sustainable boost of beneficiaries’ income by at least 20 % and cheering participation. The basis of community base plan is the vigorous participation of the community in the project design and execution.

Mustapha (2004) stated that the non-participation of the beneficiaries of the projects in the design and implementation can head to bad projects plan, less cost effective and untimely delivery of inputs and equitable distribution of project reimbursement. In order to address problems with respect to beneficiary’s participation in Fadama II project, the determinant and phases of project development need to be understood. Also, in upgrading more extension services in developing nations, free approach activities could be adopted. 10% of the cost of the advisory services was contributed by Fadama II; the experience from Fadama II in implementation of a user free demand driven method is likely to serve as a high-quality study for government in designing policies for puting into practice more extension services in Nigeria including other developing nations.

The Fadama II project employed actions are demand driven advisory; the beneficiaries considered the requisites that are of interest to the successful achievement of their associate projects. The advisory services were made available through public and private services, 10% of the cost was paid by the beneficiaries while the project paid 90% of the cost. Emphasis on pluralistic advisory services in Fadama II project provided a perfect base for the sustainability of the service and the associate project.

The early successful World Bank assisted projects provided accumulative impacts, which attest to the heftiness of small scale and the farmers based approach to Fadama growth in an environmentally responsive manner with intent to sustainably add to the income of Fadama clients, the Fadama III project was introduced at the end of the Fadama II project. It aims to assist in reducing rural poverty, boost food security as well contributes to the success of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A secondary objective of the project is conflict reduction which would be affected through the local development plans when the strategy to be adopted is within the positive list of activities admissible in the project. The Fadama III project ended in 2015 and Fadama IV Additional Financing is ongoing.

Overtime, since the inception of Fadama project, the government has been adopting different strategies in encouraging publics to participate in the project. This public especially the

213

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 rural dwellers who are the primary target needs to be well informed and educated on the value and importance of the project and one of the strategy used by the government is the mass media and the radio broadcast medium in particular.

According to Miller (1998) “radio is a medium of communication can be listened to at one’s privacy, either at home, car, office or room and it is habitually the preferred choice for those in search of information on culturally taboo topics such as HIV/AIDs or STDs.” It is a formidable tool for sensitization and awareness creation including public mobilization, such as, the Fadama project. The Fadama project is a community based project which requires a great volume of awareness and sensitization from the initiator to the target audience who are mostly local residents. The Federal government in recent times has adopted different strategies to bringing proper awareness to the public and mobilizing them to key into the project and the radio medium has not been left out. The first Fadama programme on radio appeared in 1992.

The Fadama radio programmes was meant to empower and encourage rural famers to participate in decision making process necessary for them to take charge of their cultural, economic and social environment to enable them play active roles in developmental activities.

As observed by Lele (2003) it is obvious that development involves change and this comes first from the attitude of the people who are directly affected by the development. To achieve developmental goals, there must be basic changes in how farmers approach agricultural productions and the pace at which they adopt new farming practices and technologies, in achieving this change, farmers in rural communities need to be getting adequate information on the significance of adopting the fresh Fadama practice. Attempt by extension workers/staff via demonstrations in farms as well as working with rural communities shall not be sufficient to bring about the desired change in agricultural attitude. Thus, to compliment the efforts of extension workers, radio has regularly been used. Government agencies have consistently used the radio medium to organize programmes and advertorial center on Fadama awareness and call to participation by the public. These programmes have been ongoing overtime, with different Fadama and agricultural experts featuring in some to give proper orientation on the project. Government through the Federal Ministry of Agriculture also uses the radio channel to diverge information to the Fadama users and beneficiaries because radio has the power to mobilize rural communities by using local languages, structuring it in the way and manner that fits each community thereby transcending the challenges of illiteracy, it also provide maximum space and time for programme agent to educate the farmers more, hence purchase of time and space is cheaper compared to the television and other means of communication. However, radio is available to a lot of people especially in the rural areas because of it portability and cheapness.

Research Design The population under study is beneficiaries of Fadama project in Chanchaga Community of Lavun Local Government Area of Niger State. According to records from Niger State Fadama Coordinating Office, Minna, the total number of beneficiaries is 109. The researcher adopted judgmental technique because of the nature of the study, the Fadama users were selected because they have better judgment on the effectiveness of radio broadcast on the Fadamaproject. Sample size for the study consists of the entire population of Fadama beneficiaries in Chanchaga Community of Lavun Local Government Area, which is 109, thus, a sample of 109 was selected for the study.

214

Farmers’ Perception of Effectiveness of Radio Programmes in Promoting Fadama Agricultural Policy in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State

The study used a survey questionnaire to collect data for the study. The instrument was self-administered to 109 Fadama beneficiaries and the data that was collected was analysed using SPSS. A self-administration of questionnaire allows a researcher to have personal contact with the respondents who are averagely educated; they can read and understand the questionnaire. However, wherever the respondents faced difficulties in understanding any statement in the questionnaire the research took the opportunity to explain to them in their local language of Nupe. Therefore, out of the 109 questionnaire that were distributed, only 104 respondents were able to return a well-completed questionnaire back to the researchers, while five of the respondents were preoccupied with some other engagement that prevented them from returning the completed questionnaire. Response Fraction = Sr x 100 Ss-r1+r2 104 x 100 109 -0+0 Response Rate = 95%

Result of the Findings Table 1: Demographic Characteristics of the Respondents Item Responses Frequency Percentage (%) Sex Male 89 86 Female 15 14 Age 25-30 25 24.04 30-35 46 44.23 35 and above 33 31.73 Marital Status Married 74 71 Single 30 29 Total 104 100 Data in Table 1 shows that out of the 104 questionnaires collected, 86% of respondents were males, while 14% of the respondents were females. The Table indicates that 44.23% of respondents were within the age of 30-35years and 31.73% of the respondents are aged between 35years and above respectively. Finally, the Table reveals that 71% of respondents are married, while 29% are single.

Table 2: Listening to Fadama Programmes on Radio and its Benefits Item Question Yes No Total Are you a beneficiary of Fadama? 101(97%) 3(3%) 104 Have you ever listened to Fadama 95(91%) 9(9%) 104 Programmes on Radio?

Table 2 shows that 97% of the respondents are beneficiaries of Fadama programmes while only 3% were not beneficiaries. Also, the Table 2 shows that 91% of respondents have listened to Fadama programmes on radio while 9% said they have not listened to any of the Fadama programmes on the radio.

215

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Table 3: If your answer to question 5 (Table 2) is ‘YES’, identify the type of programmes Frequency Percentage (%) Response News 8 8 Documentary 11 11 Talk/Discussion 66 63 Interview 19 18 Total 104 100 Table 3 indicates that 63% said Talk/Discussion out of 104 respondents that said YES to questions 5 above, 8 respondents representing 8% said the listened on News, 11 respondents representing 11% said they listened through documentaries and 19 respondents representing 18% said they have listened to the programme on radio through Interview respectively.

Table 4: (Question 7) How important is the programme to you? Response Frequency Percentage (%) Important 29 28 Very important 71 68 Undecided 4 4 Total 104 100 According to Table 4 (above), the majority 68% of the respondents said that the programme is very important to them, 29 respondents representing 28% said the programme is important, while 4 respondents representing 4% were undecided to the question.

Table 5: Has the programme improved your knowledge in farming? Response Frequency Percentage (%) Yes 86 83 No 14 13 Undecided 4 4 Total 104 100 Table 5 (above) reveals that 83% of the respondents said YES that the programme has improved their knowledge in farming, 14 respondents representing 13% said No, while 4 respondents representing 4% were undecided.

Table 6: If your answer to question 8 above is YES, give reasons. Response Frequency Percentage (%) I now understand that I can farm any time of 53 51 the year It has helped reduced ignorance of the local 17 16 farmers It has helped reduce the communication gap 6 6 between government and the Fadama Famers All of the above 28 27 Total 104 100

N=104

In term of Table 6 (above), 51% of the respondents said they now understand they can farm throughout the year, while 27% of the respondents chose all of the above are reasons they said YES to question 8 above.

216

Farmers’ Perception of Effectiveness of Radio Programmes in Promoting Fadama Agricultural Policy in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State

Table 7: How often do you practice what you learn from the programme? Response Frequency Percentage (%) Very Often 59 57 Often 32 31 Not often 13 12 None of the above - - Total 104 100

From the result obtained in Table 7 (above), 57% of the respondents said they practice what they learned from the programme very often, 32 respondents representing 31% practice often, while 13 respondents representing 12% said that they do not practice what they learned.

Table 8: Do you think the programme has been effective so far? Response Frequency Percentage (%) Yes 87 84 No 17 16 Total 104 100

According to Table 8, 84% of the respondents said that the programme has been effective so far, while 17 respondents representing 16% said No that the programme has not been effective.

Table 9: Reasons Given by Respondents for the Favorableness of Fadama Radio

Programmes Freq. % Questions: If your answer to question 11 No, identify the reason(s) Responses: It has helped in educating more in farming 17 16 Provided technical knowledge in Fadama programmes 9 9 It enlightened farmers on irrigation farming 42 40 All of the above 36 35

Questions: Identify ways in which these radio programmes can be made more effective Responses: Improve the local dialect used for the programme 65 63 The programmes must be more focused of the Fadama Farming 10 9 Endeavour to use more current information of Fadama Farming 8 8 All of the above 21 20

Questions: Identify ways in which the Fadama programmes can be made more effective Responses: Intensify enlightenment campaign 26 25 Government officials should implement Fadama Farming with more sincerity 18 17

Introduction of Fadama Programmes to more local government areas and 41 40 Communities All of the above 19 18 Total 104 100

According to Table 9, the majority 40% of the respondents gave the reason that it has enlightened them on irrigation farming, while 35% of the respondents said that all of the above options are reasons the programme is more effective. Additionally, Table 9 (above) shows that the

217

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 majority 59% of the respondents said it is because the language used is not understood by all and that is why they do not think that the programme has been effective so far, while 26% of the respondents said all the reasons above are why the programme is not effective.

Also, Table 9 shows that the majority 63% of the respondents said the programme can be made more effective by improving more on the local dialect used for airing the Fadama programme on radio, while 20% of the respondents said all the above suggestions are reasons to make these radio programme more effective.

Discussion

The findings revealed that the majority males as indicated in Table 1, also most the Fadama beneficiaries are within the ages of 30-35 representing 44.23%, followed by 35 years and above representing 31.73% (Table 1). Table 3 revealed that the majority of the beneficiaries are married. Further analysis showed that, radio programme of Fadama project was effective, so far, as many of the beneficiaries who are the respondents attested to the fact: as indicated in Table 5, while the majority 83% of the respondents said that the programme has been effective. This shows that Fadama project has helped in promoting sustainable agricultural project in Chanchaga Lavun Local Government Area. This finding is corroborated by Ogai (2003) that the development of the agricultural sector is a major’ indicator of a nation’s economic development and this development is viewed in terms of mechanization of agricultural food produces, improved seedlings, research improved planting methods and financial assistance of farmers.

Consequently, 16% of the respondents said that it has helped in educating more on farming, 9 respondents representing 9% said it provides technical knowledge on Fadama, while 40% said it enlightens farmers on irrigation farming, whereas 35% said it has helped in all of the above listed options. The findings advanced the view of Tripp and Rody (1996) which state that radio programme when used as a promotional and sensitization tool can benefit the weaker rural residents.

Findings also revealed that Fadama radio programme has been important to the beneficiaries as it has helped in reducing rural poverty, as farming knowledge of the rural community dwellers are improved, as indicated in Table 4, thus, 28% said the programme is important to them, 68% said the programme is very important to them, while 4% could not decide. However, these findings have supported the various functions radio perform as stated by Baran (2009) that, radio has helped in educating the masses on paramount issues of socialization, entertaining as well as informing people through surveillance of the government policies and activities concerning their wellbeing. Also from the data gathered, 83% said that the programme has improved their knowledge in farming as they have learnt new ideas and processes of farming, thereby it has increased their production rate, hence poverty among them has reduced.

Even, when 13% and 4% think otherwise as shown in Table 5 were undecided, still this finding was corroborated by the observation of Lele (2003) apparently, development involves change and change begins with the attitude the people who are will directly be influenced by the development. Also, observation of Wambugu, Franzel, Cordero and Stewart (2006) states that it is important to understand farmer’s cultural practices and this could be achieved through

218

Farmers’ Perception of Effectiveness of Radio Programmes in Promoting Fadama Agricultural Policy in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State communication and that inadequate impart of information on agriculture will limit the intended development in agricultural practices.

Furthermore, finding in Table 9 revealed that Fadama programme has helped reduce the communication gap between the government and the farmers as both can now convey messages safe via the radio programme without the hitch of travelling through and from longer distances. Hence, this finding is in line with the view of Couch (1997) that observed thus: radio has the ability to transmit quality awareness sensitization to audiences located across different geographical expansion all at a low cost per unit production.

Findings also showed that respondents do practice what they learnt from the radio programme on Fadama as 57% of the respondents said they practice very often, while 31% said it often whereas 12% said though they practice what they often learnt from the programme but it is not often as indicated in Table 7. This is what Diffusion Innovation Theory implies: the theory is concerned with the spread of messages and information that are perceived as new idea and whether the idea are finally adopted and put to use. According to Ogai (2003) the diffusion of innovation theory is used to explain the process through which less privileged societies may attain development through adaptation of development idea. The finding revealed that the theory has been effective as adopted for the study.

However, Table 9 displays the responses of the respondents who thinks that radio programmes can be made more effective through improvement on local dialect used for the programme, 63% of the respondents claimed this, while 9% said the programme must be focused on Fadama farming, whereas 8% suggested it should endeavour to use more current information on Fadama project. Yet, 20% of the respondents said that for the programme to be more effective the whole options (Table 9) should be considered. The finding advanced the suggestion of Aina (2003) that communication should pursue their aims, increase understanding of development problems, build up a spirit in a common effect and enlarge the capacity of men and women to take charge of their development. Here, the radio programme does not only inform and educate the people but also mobilize them to participate effectively in own development.

These respondents believe that the Fadama programmes can be made more effective through intensify enlightenment campaigns on Fadama project as 25% of the respondents suggested, while 17% of them said government officials should implement Fadama farming with more sincerity, whereas 40% suggested that the Fadama project be introduced to more local government areas and communities. More so, 18% of the respondents said for it to be more effective, all the options should be considered. This according to Miller (1998) who states that radio is a medium that one can listen to at his/her own solitude irrespective of place and can improve development from that zone using understandable alternative and more concise tune. More so, 97% of the respondents were beneficiaries of Fadama project, while 3% were not beneficiaries of Fadama project. Finally, 91% of the respondents said that they have listened to Fadama programmes programme on radio, while 9% of them said they have not listened to the Fadama programme on radio, whereas 8% of the said they listened to News programme, 11% of the respondents said that they listened through Documentaries. More so, 63% of the respondents said that Talk/Discussion programme and 18% said that they have listened to the programme on radio through Interview.

219

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Therefore, from the above findings, after analyzing the data gathered, it can be concluded that radio programmes have been effective thus based on the theoretical framework of the study, the Diffusion of Innovation Theory, has far helped in promoting Fadama agricultural project in Chanchaga, Lavun Local Government Area of Niger State which was able to boost sustainable agricultural productivity in the community. Hence, diffusion of new media idea or innovations goes through a predictable sequence of stage. First, the Fadamabeneficiaries gain knowledge about the new idea they learnt from the programme and form the change agent of the Fadama project, secondly, then they weighed the merit of trying, they decided to try it and, finally improvement on that decisions if they still believe that the innovation will be desired thing for them. Majority of the farmers in the Fadama project area are at the last stage of diffusion of the new, improved technologies, examples is the legume rotation, technology to improve soil fertility and reduce strange infestation, among others. The Fadama beneficiaries are re-assessing and modifying their use of it, while some few of them are rejecting the technologies. Hence, the Fadama radio programme should be further improved so as to increase its effectiveness in promoting agricultural policy in rural communities in order to further reduce rural poverty in Niger State and Nigeria as a whole.

Conclusion

The study indicates that radio plays a vital role in boosting agricultural development in the society. It is an essential ingredient in promoting agricultural development because it has been able to disseminate information on new technologies on farming, livestock and fishery among others and also information gets to the people at the grassroots and rural communities. However, the general lack of awareness among farmers in rural areas can be attributed to their level of illiteracy and this contributed to low level of option of agricultural new ideas and technologies. Thus, these problems can be solved through the use of appropriate languages since most of the farmers in these rural communities especially in the area of study are Nupe speaker. This would promote the agricultural sector in the rural community and in the urban settlement.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of the study, the following recommendations were made:

1. That the Fadama officials should endeavour to use more current information on the Fadama farming techniques. 2. Improvement on the local dialect used for the programmes because the languages are not understood by all especially rural settlers who do not go to school. 3. The extension agents should give proper orientation to the Fadama users and implement Fadama farming in more societies. 4. The government officials should also intensify enlightenment campaigns in order to introduce the Fadama programmes to more local government areas and rural communities. 5. Fadama programmes should be broadcast on radio stations at least twice in a week. 6. There should be creation of more funds from the Federal Government for the survival of the Fadama programmes and the radio programmes as well.

220

Farmers’ Perception of Effectiveness of Radio Programmes in Promoting Fadama Agricultural Policy in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State

References

Aina, L. O. (2002). Research in Information Sciences: An African Perspective, Ibadan: Stirling- Horden Publishers.

Aina, S. (2003). Anatomy of Communication. Abeokuta: Julian Publisher.

Adeyemi, I.K, Atsu, A.A, Ndagi A. and Aliyu, U. (2007). Beneficiary Assessment / impacts evaluation of Fadama II projects in Niger State. Unpublished impact studies, pp. 23-25.

Baran, S.J. (2009). Introduction to Mass Communication: Media Literacy and Culture USA: McGraw-Hill.

Chapman, R. (2003). Rural Radio in Agricultural Extension: The example of Vernacular Radio Programme on Soil and Water Conservation in North Ghana, UK: Agricultural Research and Extension.

Couch, T. (1997). Essentials of Psychology: Exploration and Application USA: Wadsworth.

Daramola, Y. (2003). Introduction to Mass Communication: Lagos, Rothan Press.

Ekoja, I. (2003). Farmer’s access to agricultural information in Nigeria. Bulletin of the American society for information science and technology, 29(6), 21- 23.

Lele, U. (2003). Aid to African Agriculture: Lessons from two Decades of Donor’s Experience. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Miller, T. (1988). Living in a Media World. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Mohammad, R.N., Hasbullah, A.H. (2010). Radio as an Educational Media: itsimpact on Agricultural Development. The Journal of South East Asia Research Centre for Communication and Humanities, 2, 13-20.

Mustapha, J. B. (2004). Introduction to Specialized Reporting. Zaria: Zaria ABU Press.

Nakabugu, S. B. (2001). The Role of Rural Radio in Agricultural and Rural Development Translating Agricultural Research Information into messages for farm Audiences. Programme of the workshop in Uganda, 19 February 2001. Retrieved from http://www.comminit.com/community-radio-africa/node/214258

Nwanchukwu, I. N. and Ezeh, C. I. (2007). Impact of Selected Rural Development Programmes on Poverty Alleviation in Ikwiano LGA, Abia State, Nigeria. African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development, 7(5), 1-17.

Ogai, J. O. (2003). Analysis of the Concept of Development and Underdevelopment. In Ukwankwe, O. (ed) Communication and National Development. Enugu. Nsukka: Africa Link Press.

221

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Oladele, O.I. (2004). Effects of World Bank Loan Withdrawal on the Performance of Agricultural Extension in Nigeria. Nordic Journal of African Studies 13(2): 141–145. Retrieved from http://www.njas.helsinki.fi/pdf-files/vol13num2/idowu.pdf

Onabajo, O. (2008). Broadcast Management and Programming. Lagos: Gabi Concepts Ltd.

Ozor, N. (2009). Understanding Climate Change: Implications for Nigerian Agriculture, Policy and Extension. A Paper presented at the National Conference on “Climate Change and the Nigerian Environment”: held at The University of Nigeria, Nsukka, 29 June-2 July.

Rogers, E. M. and Shoemaker F. F. (1971). Communication of Innovations.2nd edition. New York: The Free Press.

Sharma, N. K. (2008). Impact Study of Farm Radio Program. Produced by Agriculture Information and Communication Centre: A study from the farmers of Phalebas Kannigian V.D.C. of Parvat District, Unpublished Master’s Thesis, T. U.

Tripp, B. and Rody, R. (1996). History of Radio in Dallas – Fort Worth. Retrieved from www.dfwretroplex.com/amlist.html

Umar, A. M. (2012). Impact of Fadama II Project: Retrieved from www.hrmars.com/journals.com on 3/June/2014

Wambugu, C., Franzel, S., Cordero, J. and Stewart, J. (2006). Fodder Shrubs for Dairy Farmers in East Africa: Making Extension Decisions and Putting Them into Practice. Nairobi,

Kenya: World Agroforestry Centre; Oxford, UK: Oxford Forestry Institute. Retrieved from http://www.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/Publications/PDFS/b14146.pdf

World Bank (2003) Fadama II Project Implementation Manual Volume I and II. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/790911468077936037/pdf/ICR11600P06 3621IC0disclosed08191101.pdf

222

Integrating Social Media in Nigerian University Education: Prospects and Constraints

1Idi, Shadrach and 2Jude Chukwunonso, Abugu

1Department of Mass Communication, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Anambra State, Nigeria 2News Department, Nigerian Television Authority, Enugu Network Center [email protected] [email protected]

Abstract

Social media have become significant part of life of most young people especially those in universities. The media are used for different purposes mostly for social interaction. The main purpose of this paper is to examine how social media platforms can be formally used in teaching and learning in the university education system in Nigeria. Anchored on Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), the paper adopts qualitative research approach. Data were sourced from existing works and semi structured interviews. The population frame of the study includes lecturers and students of the department of mass communication, Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka. Results revealed that social media are valuable tools for education as they encourage collaborative and cooperative learning among students and lecturers but issues of low social media literacy among older lecturers, online security threat, poor network, distractive tendencies and addiction pose serious challenges to adoption of the media for teaching and learning in universities in Nigeria. Among others, the study recommends that lecturers need to acquire and or update social media knowledge and operational skills while management of universities in Nigeria are called upon to make or improve the provision of free and effective wireless network to lecturers and students.

Keywords: Constraint, Education, Integrating, Prospects and Social Media

Introduction

There has been explosive growth in the number and use of social media sites like Facebook, Twitter, Youtube and WhatsApp among young people globally. The Pew Research Center (2015) reports that, 92% of young people within 18-29 years age group use some form of social media on a daily basis. Some scholars like Prensky (2001) have classified people into Net Generation, I Generation and X Generation. “Net Generation” is those born between 1980 and 1989, “I Generation” refers to those born between 1990 and 1999 while “Generation X” are those born between 1965 and 1979. Research has shown that an average undergraduate student in Nigeria is within the age of 18-30 (Adum, Ekwugha, Ojiakor and Ebeze, 2016; Shadrach, 2016; Anasi, 2006 and Ani, 2010). Thus, students in universities across the nation fall into the “Net” and “I” Generations, generations that function best when networked (Prensky, 2001).

Based on this idea, it is logical to suggest that in order for university education in Nigeria to be more effective there is dire need of integrating social media like Facebook, WhatsApp, Twitter and Youtube into teaching and learning process. Mark Taylor in Lane and Lewis (2013) captures this truth when he observed that, this generation of university study is different from any generation of higher education of time past. Taylor, according to Lane and Lewis, further reveal that there is ample evidence of a growing divide and mismatch between faculties [Lecturers] and students in teaching and learning as few schools and lecturers are making effort to leverage

223

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 students’ digital preferences. Stanciu, Mihai and Aleea (2012) and Blair and Serafini (2014) concur that due to the continuous increase of using new communication technologies among students in everyday life, the implementation of these technologies in learning activities becomes a necessity.

Over the years, there has been emphasis on the role that technology can play to harness effective learning. Thus, e-learning principles have attracted the attention of university managements around the world. The provision of internet connection and corresponding technologies like projectors, desktops/laptops and some software were noticed in many Nigerian schools as lecturers were also trained in the use of these gadgets. In some schools, lecturers and students were loaned laptops while internet subscription was deduced from the lecturers’ salaries while students’ school fees was increased to cover internet subscription fee. This initiative to some extent minimized the poor computer literacy among university lecturers and students in Nigeria. It has lessened and fastened research as well as connected academics and students to global colleagues as such exposed them to large repertoire of information and knowledge. However, the initiative does not keep the pace with innovations particularly the social media, which are very popular, constantly evolving and always appealing and accessed by most students.

Using social media in formal education system like university is no longer an option or a cause of disagreement but an exigency. According to McGraw-Hill President of Higher Education, Brian Kibby as cited by Kim (2012), “Studying effectively and with the right type of technology is one of the best ways to ensure that students succeed…” So far, social media seem to be one of these right technologies that can be explored for effective university education because students are more comfortable and conversant with the social media. Stanciu, Mihai and Aleca (2012) have stressed that, “The technology savvy student’s of this decade not only expect the use of social media, they seek it out… educators need to become as savvy as their students”.

Higher Education teaching practices have evolved over the last twenty years, with more emphasis on student-centered pedagogy or interactive learning. With the manner social media are being embraced by students daily and the opportunities for interaction that abide in the media, their (social media) integration in higher education precisely university education is cardinal if not, there would remain a disconnect between our ambition for interactive learning and the realities of our practice. Nevertheless, the question is— how can social media be fuse into formal education considering the fact that the media have been subject to much debate and criticism. Whilst growing numbers of educators celebrate the potential of social networking to (re)engage learners with their studies, others fear that such applications compromise and disrupt young people's engagement with “traditional” education provision. Despite this carping views against social media, the media are consistently being adopted among students thereby posing a serious task before education policymakers at tertiary level like university. The 2008 Horizon Report states that, “…the challenge faced by the educational community is to seize those opportunities [for use of social networking and other collaborative tools] and develop effective ways to measure academic progress as it happens”.

Certainly, there is a well-developed body of literature that supports informal learning via social media. Researchers have analyzed interaction that has taken place in social networking sites and have identified sharing of ideas, providing of peer feedback, and engagement in critical thinking as the aftermath of using social media in learning process (Selwyn, 2007). However, academic discussion and debate on integrating social media in formal education remains largely

224

Integrating Social Media in Nigerian University Education: Prospects and Constraints speculative rather than well informed and certain. Only minute studies and mainly from developed nations attempted to report specific learning gains and benefits from social media as formal tools in learning environments. In Nigeria, studies about social media mostly focus on use pattern, purpose of use, type of social media use, challenges of use and time spent on the media. Thus, there exists a gap in literature regarding social media and university education in the country. Against this backdrop, this study investigates how social media can be integrated into university education system in Nigeria as well as the benefits and challenges therein.

Theoretical Framework

This study is premised on Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The theory was propounded by Fred Davis in 1986 to explain why people accept or reject particular technology (Davis, 1989). According to Davies, there are two factors that may lead to adoption or rejection of any new technological innovation. These factors are “perceived usefulness of the technology” and “ease of use of the technology”. Perceived usefulness (PU) is the degree to which a person believes that using a particular device would enhance his or her job performance while perceived ease-of- use (PEOU) is the degree to which a person believes that using a particular device would be free from effort or has less effort.

TAM has been widely criticized, leading to expanded versions of the model called TAM 2 (Davies, Bagozzi and Warsaw 1992). The model is criticized for limited explanatory and predictive power, triviality, and lack of practical value (Chuttur 2009). Furthermore, Lunceford in Bagozzi (2007)have argued that the framework of perceived usefulness and ease of use overlooks other issues, such as cost and structural imperatives that force users into adopting or rejecting a particular technology. Despite the criticisms above, the model (TAM) remains relevant in explaining technology adoption and/or use. This is because the theory encompasses elements from theories like uses and gratification by Katz, Blumler and Gurevitch (1973), and ACE (Accessibility, Control and Excitement) model by Wu, Tao and Yang, (2008) which are established theories often use to explain use of technology. In addition, Lee, Cheung and Chen (2005) suggested that TAM is a solid and valid theoretical model to apply in explaining use of technology among students. It is based on these beliefs that the model fits the current study in that, the perceived usefulness of integrating social media into university education as well as the perceived easiness of the media such as portability, flexibility, affordability and interactivity will be brought to fore as key to adoption of social media in university education system in Nigeria.

Empirical Review of Literature

Interest in social media as tools for teaching, learning and research has inspired diverse researchers. A Survey Research Group in collaboration with New Marketing Labs and the education-consulting group Pearson Learning Solutions in America drew samples from almost 1,000 colleges and university lecturers which revealed that more than 80 percent of professors were using social media in some capacity and more than half used these tools as part of their teaching. The survey noted that 30 percent were using social networks to communicate with students while more than 52 percent were using online videos, podcasts, blogs, and wikis during class time. It was also found that older faculty (those teaching 20 years or more) used social media at almost the same level as their younger peers (Blankenship, 2011). This implies that there is great

225

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 adoption of social media among academics particularly in developed nations. This might not be the case in developing countries like Nigeria.

Earlier, Lockyer and Bennett (2006) conducted a longitudinal study that used experimental approach to examine social media and experience in a formal education context among postgraduate students and lecturers in Regional Australian University during the 2007 academic year. A course, “Network-based learning” that has been part of the postgraduate studies in the school with particular focus on how education can be supported by the use of web-based and other networked technologies was used for the study. The course was delivered fully online for 13-week semester to twelve (12) registered students using a range of tools such as live chat, discussion forums and wikis as well as tools like Facebook and Flickr. At the end of the semester, students completed three main assessment tasks in which they analyzed the network-based learning and the weekly online class activities. Participants did not only report the potential of social media to provide deeper engagement in the topic but also identified challenges related to literacy among teachers and learners.

In another study, Shen and Eder (2009) examined students’ intentions to use the virtual world Second Life (SL) for education, and explored factors associated with their intentions. “Second Life is a three dimensional (3D) electronic environment where members can socialize, hold virtual meetings, or conduct economic transactions. Survey was conducted among business school students who participated in Second Life in upper level MIS courses. Results suggested that perceived ease of use affects user’s intention to adopt SL and Computer self-efficacy and computer playfulness are significant antecedents to perceived ease of use of virtual worlds. This implies that the perceived advantages and easiness of new media technology is a motivation for the integration of the media in higher education environment.

Another study by Li and Pitts (2009) interrogated the use of virtual office hours as a medium for students to communicate with their professors using Facebook and Instant messaging (IM) Apps. Participants in the study included both “traditional” and “nontraditional” undergraduate students enrolled in MIS courses at a public U.S. university in the southeast. The findings suggested that students’ use of virtual office hours is not significantly different from their use of traditional office hours; however, participants in classes that offered virtual office hours reported higher levels of satisfaction with office hours than students in classes that offered only traditional face-to-face office hours. Implicatively, the study showed insight to some benefits of integrating social media in formal learning environment.

In addition, Selwyn (2009) presented an in-depth qualitative analysis of the “Facebook” “wall” activity of 909 undergraduate students in a UK university. Analysis of these data showed how much of students’ education related use of this social networking application was based around either the “post-hoc” critiquing of learning experiences and events, the exchange of logistical or factual information about teaching and assessment requirements. Others were supplication and moral support about assessment or learning, or the promotion of oneself as academically incompetent and/or disengaged. With these themes in mind, the paper concluded that rather than necessarily enhancing or eroding students’ “front-stage” engagement with their formal studies, Facebook use must be seen as being situated within the “identity politics” of being a student. In particular, “Facebook” appears to provide a ready space where the “role conflict” that

226

Integrating Social Media in Nigerian University Education: Prospects and Constraints students often experience in their relationships with university work, teaching staff, academic conventions and expectations can be worked through in a relatively closed “backstage” area.”

Furthermore, Junco, Heiberger and Loken (2010) carried out semester-long experimental study in South Dakota State University, to determine if using Twitter for educationally relevant purposes can affect college student engagement and grades. A total of 125 students taking a first year seminar course for pre-health professional majors participated in the study (70 in the experimental group and 55 in the control group). With the experimental group, Twitter was used for various types of academic and co-curricular discussions. Engagement was quantified by using a 19-item scale based on the National Survey of Student Engagement. The researchers also conducted content analyses of samples of Twitter exchanges. The ANOVA results showed that the experimental group had a significantly greater increase in engagement than the control group, as well as higher semester grade point averages. Analyses of Twitter communications showed that students and faculties were both highly engaged in the learning process in ways that transcended traditional classroom activities. This study provides experimental evidence that Twitter can be used as an educational tool to help engage students and to mobilize faculty into a more active and participatory role.

Additionally, Irvin, Ball and Desbrow (2012) examined students’ perceptions of using ‘Facebook pages’ within individual university (Griffith University and University of Queensland). Individual “Facebook pages” were developed for four university courses and used to provide information relevant to the courses and allow opportunities for students’ interaction. Earlier an initial questionnaire was administered in the first lecture of the semester and the instrument indicated that nearly all students (n=161, 93.1%) possessed an active Facebook account. Most students (n=135, 78.0%) anticipated that a Facebook page would facilitate their learning, by increased interaction with other students and instructors, and notifications for course information. A second questionnaire was completed in the final lecture of the semester indicating that 81.9% of students engaged with the course Facebook page at some stage. However, perceptions of the effectiveness of the page as a learning tool were variable, with only 51% of students stating that it was effective. Despite this, the majority of students (n=110, 76.4%) recommended using Facebook in future courses.

Similarly, Stanciu, Mihai and Aleca (2012) in a study about the impact of social networks on educational process in Romanian higher education, employing a theoretical framework regarding the educational value of the social networking web sites, proposed a model of implementing Facebook usage in higher education leaning processes. Data were gathered through survey on students and academics at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies. Results revealed that social networking sites have become very popular among students and might be considered as valuable tools for education. By implication these studies suggest that social media have the potential to promote collaborative and cooperative learning and open a wide perspective on students’ availability to use social networking sites but fail to adequately show how such technologies can be integrated. Thus, further research is required to understand if and how the media can enhance learning outcomes.

In another related study, Kimberly and Dede (2013) investigated the integration of social media in an Online Graduate Youth Development Course in North Carolina State University, United States of America. Data were collected through interviews, a course reflection paper, and

227

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 open-ended survey questions. Results showed that although few students entered with strong technology skills, they left with new abilities and strong attitudes about the importance of using social media in their professional roles. This reinforces the fact that students are interested and willing to learn new skills and ideas as long as social media are adopted as learning tools.

Roebuck, Samia Siha and Bell (2013) conducted a survey on the perceptions of professors using social media in the classroom, what kinds of mobile devices are used to access the social media, and what drives individuals to use them. In addition, it tries to identify the advantages and concerns faculties have with the use of social media for classroom instruction. Professors, regardless of sex or rank, held statistically the same views of the advantages as well as the concerns related to social media usage in the classroom. The advantages include students feedback from multiple sources, more engaged students, information sharing, stronger classroom community, higher quality student collaborative work, discussion opportunities, improved creativity, and preparation for the work environment, while the concerns shared by the respondents include monitoring, liability, a need for institutional approach, overabundance of information, and time intensive.

In the same vein, Holotescu and Gabriela (2013) studied how social media are perceived and use in Romanian higher education. The study sought answers to the following questions: How do lecturers use social media as reflective and collaborative teaching and learning tools for research and professional development, what are the potential benefits, challenges, and disadvantages in using social media in universities? They study also wanted to if there was a need for training the educational actors in this topic? The researchers developed and applied an online questionnaire for scholars from different universities and colleges from Romania. Findings revealed an increasing use of social media by educational actors in Romania but only a few universities have adopted coherent strategies and policies for pedagogical integration of social media and development as the best methods for teaching and learning based on these strategies. This implies a need for further research like the current one.

As can be seen above, there are several studies already conducted on use of social media technologies in higher education, however, studies up to this point have not made detail explanation on how social media technologies can be adopted into university education system. More specifically, most of the studies that attempted to examine social media as tools for educational intervention are from developed nations with wider forms of social media, powerful network service, better economy and literacy level compared to Africa and Nigeria in particular. Thus, the findings of these studies and their implementing in the Nigerian system may not yield the needed results. Therefore, there is need to domesticate such studies to fit into the Nigerian educational landscape and scenario. The current study is an effort toward actualizing such noted gap.

Research Methodology

This study adopted qualitative approach based on the use of both primary and secondary data. Secondary data were gathered from internet sources (journals) and conventional books while primary data were generated from online interviews with 9 lecturers of department of mass communication, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka and online group discussion among the 26 registered students of 2015/2016 Master of Science (M.Sc.) programme of the same university

228

Integrating Social Media in Nigerian University Education: Prospects and Constraints (Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka) and department (Mass communication). The lecturers were sent interview questions via whatsapp chat to illicit information about their opinion regarding integration of social media in teaching and learning in university system in Nigeria. Similarly, items soliciting information from the students regarding the subject matter were posted in the Whatsapp group chat of the class and the students were asked to respond. Nineteen (19) out of the twenty-six (26) registered students and members of the group chat responded. Data collected were summarized and analyzed thematically.

Presentation of Interview Results

It was discovered that social media are powerful tools that can be used to share relevant course material. One academics interviewed puts it this way, “links, photos or multimedia content related to specific subjects can be made available to students within seconds through social media.” According to him, social media tools can be used to share resources, promote brainstorming, extend class discussion and promote student sense of community. For example, students could be assigned to create their own customized reading lists on particular topics. An educator may use Twitter to create and update their class reading or news lists. Interestingly, social media gives lecturers the opportunity to share every form of message be it video, audio, written text, animation and images. With Youtube, for instance, a lecturer can create succinct and powerful video presentation and send it to students to watch and learn from it especially when the lecturer is not around or is out of the country. Thus, with social media, “plethora of useful contents and links to relevant materials like posting bibliographical notes or hyperlinks is possible”. Supporting this position, another lecturer interviewed states that: “as an academic tool, social media can be used to enhance online studies where people take classes without practically or physically meeting under a roof”. Another lecturer said, social media can be used to track and study feedbacks about particular subject or class, area of difficulty, delivery style among others. According to him, with such feedbacks, the lecturer would improve delivery as well as clarify difficult concepts by providing additional examples. However, lecturers interviewed were of the opinion that social media have some weaknesses that might put the whole learning process at risk. They majorly identify issue of distraction, low ICT literacy among most of them and dearth of ICT infrastructures as key issues that will mitigate effective integration of social media in university education system in Nigeria.

Most students that contributed during the online discussion for this study explained that social media could be used in publishing news on lecture schedules, tests, exams and seminars among others. They said the media could also be used in tracking news about books, journals or treaties available in the libraries within and outside the school. Another student particularly said that, “Whatsapp group chat remains the best channel of informing classmates about all that need to be known; on such a platform, the message gets faster and since most students always log to their Whatsapp, the message gets to almost all at very cheap cost. The student went ahead to say that to him, a class without official Whatsapp group chat would have information crisis.” Similarly, students identified social media as ideal venues of meeting to discuss issues bothering them as a class while everyone, according to them, is at his or her comfort making useful contribution. However, the students also suggested some likely problems associated with social media in educational system in Nigeria. Most of them argued that poor internet service in most Nigeria University and negative perception toward social media among older generation and lecturers would not allow effective integration of the media into the Nigerian University system.

229

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Furthermore, one of the students posits that “…online security threat, invasion of privacy and information overload are problems that must be dealt with while integrating social media into teaching and learning process…”

Findings of the Study

One major advantage of social media tools, which has been reported many times in the research, is the creation of community where students and lecturers can meet for academic purposes. Social media foster communication, engagement, and collaboration (Hung and Yuen, 2010; Junco, Heiberger, and Loken, 2011). A community can be created locally for a particular class, beyond the boundary of a single classroom, for the university, or even beyond the campus using a virtual world. Hence, use of social media tools complement face-to-face classes enhance learning and engagement particularly among students. While some introverted students may find it difficult to participate in face-to-face classes, they may be more comfortable posting comments and thoughts to special groups on Facebook or any other social medium. It was observed from the data generated that most lecturers are adamant about the benefits of social media integration in university education unlike the students. To most of the students, social media are beneficial because they can give them access to lecturer during off days or when dealing with lecturers that are not always accessible face-to-face manner. Previously, Lockyer and Benneth (2008) emphasize that social networking sites provide support for collaborative learning. Users of social networking sites can join study groups corresponding to a certain school, class or group they belong to and can share educational resources and knowledge in an easier way.

Challenges of Adoption of Social Media in University Education

Despite their viability, social media are not without some weaknesses. Since their emergence, social media have been attracting pessimistic views from different quarters. Discourse on their (Social media) adoption as tools for higher education only reinforces most of the pessimistic views against social media use. from the data gathered in this study, both students and lecturers identified series of challenges associated with social media as tools for higher education but it is important to bring to fore that lecturers who commented are more pessimistic on their views against social media than students. The lecturers do not think that social media are useful tools of learning as they provide only superficial contact with peers/staff and can detract them from essential skills which should be developed in Higher Education such as formal academic writing, verbal communication, self -awareness and reflection on the learning experience. This supports the explanation given by Odii (2013) that with all its gains like connectivity, interactivity, exclusivity, alertness and all that; the social media have, the media have downsides, it can pollute language skills especially writing skills of the students.

Other challenges found include poor internet connection, issue of privacy and security. It was discovered that many people do not like to make their details like phone numbers, names, location among others open online due to security reasons because of activities of fraudsters. All these are factors believed could affect adoption of social media in University education in Nigeria. This supports the opinion of Agbawe (2018) that privacy issues and opportunities for misunderstanding and miscommunication are high in social media. Furthermore, the problem of addiction is also discovered to be associated with the use of social media. It was argued that

230

Integrating Social Media in Nigerian University Education: Prospects and Constraints integrating social media into university educational system would reinforce the problem of computer addiction.

Prospects of Social Media in University Education

Respondents in this study and many scholars have argued that much as the social media have some serious lacunas, the media, no doubt, provided a plethora of opportunities for transforming university education system through interactive information exchange. Thus, social media provide an unlimited gateway to educational advancement of Nigeria university system as the ultimate interactive environment that would move from a teacher-centred approach to learning to a learner-centered approach. This implies that with social media technologies integrated into the university education across Nigeria, students would have better opportunities to take their learning experience outside the classroom and rather than dwelling on the social utilization of the media, the media would then become active and interesting learning supplement. That is why Oluwalanu, Adelabu and Okunade (2014) have argued that using social media among students for learning leads to development of a positive attitude towards using technology systems. This implies that the problematic use of computer and social media which has been an issue of concern today can be mitigated if there are effective educational designs that can enhance the use of social media in Nigerian universities.

Conclusion

It has been established in this study that, the world today is a global village; distance is not a barrier in people’s engagement across the globe and nations. This is made possible by the internet and its corresponding features such as social media. Social media have continued to serve as platforms for all sort of interaction among people. Based on these realities and findings of the study, there is no doubt that social media technologies like Facebook, Twitter Whatsapp have great prospects in promoting higher education in Nigeria through provision of effective channels of interaction and learning between learners and teachers and among the learners as it is in developed communities like United states, Canada, China and host of others. However, it is important to note that, the perceived usefulness of social media in higher education in Nigeria is accompanied by some technical, financial, legal and literacy challenges. What this implies is that as educators and students are encouraged to embrace social media networks to leverage engagement, appropriate cautions and limitations need to be considered while the scientific world continue to investigate better ways in which our tertiary institutions in Nigeria can adopt social media as tools of learning.

231

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Recommendations

i. Social media platforms officially created for course purposes should be guided by certain rules that will regulate excessive posting of materials that are not needful especially among students. The platforms should not be used for personal discussions. A student that wants to discuss a personal matter with a colleague or his lecturer should use personal inbox. ii. Students should be taught how to regulate addiction to computer (social media). This calls for parents, teachers, media and guidance to brace up in their responsibility toward their children. iii. One serious challenge identified is low level of social media literacy among adult lecturers. As of now, the students are more literate than their lecturers in terms of social media usage. Though, several studies associated the age issue as one of the factors limiting lecturers use of social media, lecturers especially older ones should enrol into new media coaching classes or trainings in order to learn how to create teaching contents like Youtube tutorial, course blogs, and other relevant sites that can be used for academic purposes. iv. Government should improve power supply and as well make legislations that will compel telecommunication companies to introduce cheaper data plan and stable network service affordable to students. v. In the same manner, managements of universities should make access to wireless network within school free to registered students

References

Adum,A.N., Ekwugha, U.P., Ojiakor, O.E.and Ebeze, U.V. (2016). Screen time, health implications and university students’ awareness in Nigeria.International Journal of Communication and Media Science, 3 (3).

Agbawe, M. (2018). Challenges and Prospects of Social Media on Digital Natives: The Case of Nigeria. Journal of information and knowledge management, 9 (3): 18-32.

Anasi, S. (2006). Study on internet use pattern of undergraduate students at Universities of Lagos. University of Dar es Salaam Library Journal 8 (1 & 2) 1-15. Retrieved 23rd June 2016 from http://www.ajol.info/index.php/udslj/article/view/26643.

Ani, O. E. (2010). Internet access and use: A study of undergraduate students in three Nigerian Universities. Electronic library 28(4) 555-567. Retrieved 23 June 2016 from http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1878368.

Bagozzi, R.P. (2007). The legacy of technology acceptance model and a proposal for a paradigm shift. Journal of the Association of Information System, 8 (4): 244-254.

Blair, R. and Serafini, T. (2014). Integration of education: Using social media networks to Engage Students. Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, 12 (6).

Blankenship, M. (2011). How social media can and should impact higher education. Education Digest,76(7):39-42.

232

Integrating Social Media in Nigerian University Education: Prospects and Constraints Chuttur, M.Y. (2009). Overwiew of the technology acceptance model: Origin development and future directions. Working paper on information systems, 9 (37):237-246.

Davis, F. D. (1989). Perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of information technology. MIS Quarterly, 13 (3): 319–340.

Davis, F.D., Bagozzi, R.P.and Warsaw, P.R (1992). “Extrinsic and intrinsic motivation to use computer in the workplace”. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 22 (1):1111-1132.

Dunn, L.A (2014). Teaching In Higher Education: Can Social Media Enhance The Learning Experience? Interdisciplinary Science Education, Technologies and Learning - The University of Glasgow.

Holotescu, C. and Gabriela, G. (2013). Social media challenges for academia. Available at: http://www.researchgate.net/publications/236015974

Hung, H. and Yuen, S.C. (2010). Educational use of social media networking technology inhigher education, Teaching in Higher Education, 15(6):703-714.

Irvin, C. Ball, L. and Desbrow, B. (2012). Students perception of using facebook as an interactivelearning resources at the university. Australasian Journal of Education Technology, 28 (7): 1221-1232.

Junco, R., Heiberger, G. and Loken, E. (2011). The effect of Twitter on college studentengagement and grades. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning, 27(2): 119-132.

Katz, E., Gurevitch, M. and Gurevitch, H. (1973). On the use of the mass media for important things. American Sociological Review, 38, 166-167.

Kim, J. (21st October, 2012). “7 questions McGraw Hill’s Brian Kibby”. Available at:https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/technology-and-learning/7questions/mcgraw- hills-brian-kibby

Kimberly A. & Dede, N. (2013). A Case Study on Integrating social media in an onlineGraduate Youth Development Course. MERLOTJournal of Online Learning and Teaching 9, (4).

Lane, S.D.and Lewis, T.N. (2013). “The digital divide” Social media and education-related outcomes. The Online Journal of New Horizons in Education, 3 (2):39-49.

Lee, M., Cheung, C. and Chen, Z. (2005). Acceptance of internet-based learning medium. The role of extrinsic and intrinsic motivation. Information & Management, 42 (8), 1095-1104.

Li, L. and Pitts, J. P. (2009). Does It Really Matter? Using Virtual Office Hours to Enhance Student‐Faculty Interaction. Journal of Information Systems Education, 20 (2),175‐185.

Lockyer, L. and Bennett, S. (2006). Understanding roles within technology supported teaching and learning: Implications for students, staff and institutions., in Technology Supported

233

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Learning and Teaching: A Staff Perspective. J. O'Donoghue, S.Editor. 2006, Information Science Publishing: Hershey, PA.

Odii, C. (2013), Social Media. In N. Okoro (ed), Contemporary Readings in Media and Communication Studies (pp.161-173). Lagos: St. Benedette Publishers Ltd.

Oluwalanu, S.B., Adelabu, O. and Okunade, J. (2014). Adapting social media for formal learning in Nigeria: Challenges and prospects Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 3(9).

Pew Research Center (2015). “Social media usage 2005-2015”. Available at: https://www.pewinternet.org/2015/10/08/social-networking-usage-2005-2015/

Prensky, M. (2001). Digital natives, digital immigrants. On the Horizon, 9(5), 1-6.

Roebuck, D.B. and Siha, S. (2013). Faculty usage of social media and mobile devices: Analysis of advantages and concerns. Interdisciplinary Journal of E-Learning and Learning, 9 (1).

Selwyn, N. (2007). Web 2.0 applications as alternative environments for informal learning – acritical review inBackground paper for the CERI-KERIS International ExpertMeeting on ICT and Educational Performance. 2007. ChejuNational University: South Korea.

Selwyn, N. (2009). The digital native – myth and reality. Aslib Proceedings: New Information Perspectives, 61(4), 364-369, http://www.educationarean.com/pdf/sample/sample- essay-Selwyn.pdf.

Shadrach, I. (2016). “Screen time, risks awareness and perception among undergraduate students in Northeast, Nigeria”. A work submitted to Postgraduate Studies Unit, Mass Communication Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the course: Quantitative Research Method (MAC 841).

Shen, J. and Eder, L. B. (2009). Intentions to Use Virtual Worlds for Education. Journal of Information Systems Education, 20 (2): 225‐234.

Stanciu, A. Mihai, F.and Aleca, O. (2012). Social Networking as an AlternativeEnvironment For Education. Accounting and Management Information Systems 11, (1):56–75.

The 2008 Horizon Report: New media consortium. Available at http://www.horizonreport-2008-

Wu, Y.L. Tao, Y.H. and Yang, P.C. (2008). The Use of Unified of Acceptance and Use of Technology to Confer the Behavioural Model of 3G Telecommunication Use. Journal ofStatistics and Management (online), 11(5):919-949. Available WWW .http://search.ebcohost.com

234

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play?

Agboola, Abdulhameed Kayode1and Omale, Gloria Eneh1

1Department of Information and Media Technology, School of Information and Communication Technology, Federal University of Technology, Minna [email protected]

Abstract

This paper expands the scope of studying mass media in relation to migration and its attendant security issues by addressing new forms of media deployment in the interest of regulating migration flows around the countries of the world. Beyond constructing mass media representations of minorities and migration processes, this paper argues that mass media have new roles to play when it comes to targeting potential migrants in preventing mobility across borders. The main sources of data for the study included a review of existing secondary data on information and communication technologies use. However, as a guiding steps, this paper proffers answers to the following questions, (a). In what ways can the mass media influence migration? (b). What efforts are mass media making in addressing potential migrants as audiences in order to discourage migration? (c). What roles do media play in dealing with migration as a security matter? (d). What forms of educative information are media providing to potential migrants about perceptions of unwanted migrants by their host countries? (e). Do mass media create awareness in migrants as to possible threats to the security of their intended migration countries? The paper concludes that the mass media have significant roles to play in discouraging and restraining illegal migration and its attendant security threats it poses to their intended host countries. The paper recommends that potential migrants should be informed and educated on proper modalities for migration and discourages them on illegal migration and its attendant dangers and threats to the security of intended host countries.

Keywords: Illegal migrants, mass media roles, media deployment, migration and security threats

Introduction

Human migration is one of the greatest issues facing today’s society. Driven by violent conflict, social strife, poverty, and political turmoil, migration creates questions about the distribution of jobs, space, and resources, the cost of education and health care, and the security of national borders. It also challenges preconceived notions of nationality and belonging, as well as community traditions and culture. Migration, though, is only a symptom of many problems plaguing societies around the world, and because of its significant social impacts, it will continue to be a concern at the forefront of international discussion.

In this millennium, not a single area of the world goes unaffected by human migration, nor has any nation gone untouched by flows of migration in the past. Once the hub of emigration, Europe is now facing one of the most dramatic episodes of immigration in modern history as millions of immigrants flee conflicts in the Middle East or search for economic opportunities outside of Africa. Across the Atlantic, the United States struggles with its own immigration issues, as it tries to secure its southern border against illegal migration from Latin America. The migration

235

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 crisis is a worldwide phenomenon and a megatrend of the 21st century, evidenced by the 244 million migrants who were accounted for in 2015 (United Nations, 2016, cited in Dzilenski, 2017).

Table 1: International Migrants, 1970 – 2015

Overall, the estimated number of international migrants has increased over the past four- and-a-half decades. The total estimated 244 million people living in a country other than their country of birth in 2015 is almost 100 million more than in 1990 (when it was 153 million), and over three times the estimated number in 1970 (84 million; see Table 1 above) (International Organisation for Migration, 2018, p.15). While the proportion of international migrants globally has increased over this period, it is evident that the vast majority of people continue to live in the country in which they were born. Most international migrants in 2015 (around 72%) were of working age (20 to 64 years of age), with a slight decrease in migrants aged less than 20 between 2000 and 2015 (17% to 15%), and a constant share (around 12%) of international migrants aged 65 years or more since 2000 (cited in International Organisation for Migration [IOM], 2018, p.15).

Unsurprisingly, global news media have focused heavily on the rapidly emerging flows of migration over the past decade, simultaneously chronicling global human migration and its wide- reaching consequences. The coverage of news media has driven migration to the forefront of regional, national, and international news on a daily basis. As a cornerstone to free and democratic societies around the world, journalism strives to educate citizens on current public affairs and issues in order to create informed participants and voters in public discussion (Aalberg, Aelst, and Curran, 2010). Journalism empowers communal dialogue by shaping out perception of events, as suggested by agenda setting and framing theories. The news media, and the journalists who construct it, are critical components to the public’s understanding of the issues facing international

236

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play? leaders, policymakers, and their own communities. The global migration crisis has dominated headlines as more and more journalists bear witness to the experiences of millions of migrants and of the hundreds of communities they are arriving in. For those living outside of destination countries, the media’s construction of immigration issues is crucial to the public’s understanding of these topics because the public’s lack of firsthand experience.

A report by Threadgold (2009) highlighted that the print and broadcast media in the UK cover only a very narrow range of migration stories, primarily focusing on asylum seekers, refuges, illegal immigrants, and migrant workers. The media use a “template” to frame stories about migration. These frames generally conflate all migration with asylum, make the migrant the victim and the object and show migration as a problem. There is a focus on number and statistics (particularly on figures that imply a burden on scare public resources), on political debates on immigration and on language that evokes the theme of “invasion.” Stories on immigration are often unconsciously collocated in the news with reports of “foreign threats” (for instance, war, drugs, crime, or terrorism) implying a connection between the two. The media contributes to a perception that immigration is in perpetual crisis, which influences policy monitoring and reform. There is a symbiosis between media and policy: politicians, media, and academics provide the language for talking about immigration and thus set the agenda and frame the stories. A certain policy focus is transmitted from government to media. The stories that the media then produce feed back into policy discourse. In addition to driving policy, “media panics” also influence academic research on media coverage of migration. The result has been research that centres on print coverage of asylum seekers and refugees rather than on research across various media that provides a more comprehensive view of migration coverage in the UK (Threadgold, 2009).

However, the objectives of this paper is to argue for new roles that the mass media have to play when it comes to targeting potential migrants in preventing mobility across borders and it examines how national news media framed these narratives for their audiences. In order to achieve these objectives, this paper provides answers to the following guiding questions; In what ways can the mass media influence migration? What important roles do media play in the sense of addressing potential migrants as audiences in order to discourage migration? What roles do media play in dealing with migration as a security matter? What forms of educative information are media providing to potential migrants about perceptions of unwanted migrants by their host countries? Do mass media create awareness in migrants as to possible threats to the security of their intended migration countries? The paper concludes that the mass media have significant roles to play in discouraging and restraining illegal migration and its attendant security threats it poses to their intended host countries.

Theoretical Framework

Social Responsibility Theory

Scholars have highlighted that the idea that emerged from the Hutchins Commission report of 1947 formed what is known today as the Social Responsibility theory of the press. The hub of the Social Responsibility theory is that the media should be used for the public good. It emphasized the need for an independent press that scrutinizes other social institutions and provides objective, accurate news reports. Though it canvasses for the freedom of the press, such freedom, places

237

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 obligation on the press; it should be responsible to society for carrying out certain essential functions of mass communication in contemporary society (McQuail, 1987).

Social Responsibility theory calls on the media to be responsible for fostering productive and creative "Great Communities" (Baran and Davis, 2003, p.109), and it suggests that media should do this by prioritizing cultural pluralism- by becoming the voice of all the people - not just elite groups or groups that had dominated national, regional or local culture in the past. It also points out that the media, in carrying out their obligations, must adhere to the highest ethical standards. McQuail (1987, p.16) summarized the basic principles of Social Responsibility Theory as follows: 1. To serve the political system by making information, discussion and consideration of public affairs generally accessible. 2. To inform the public to enable it to take self-determined action. 3. To protect the rights of the individual by acting as a watchdog over the government. 4. To serve the economic system; for instance, by bringing together buyers and sellers through the medium of advertising. 5. To provide "good" entertainment, whatever "good" may mean in the culture at any point in time. 6. To preserve its own financial autonomy in order not to become dependent on special interests and influences.

In a nutshell, social responsibility is ethics that guide any action, be it in media or other organizations that put an obligation towards environment, society, culture and economy. The media like any other sector should not harm, but should promote environment and socio-cultural aspects in relation to the economy of the place. Just exactly, the media is saddled with the responsibility of creating awareness about the rights of every migrants, both regular and non- regular migrants, in our society.

Mass Media and Theory of Migration

Relating from reports of several research studies, Piotrowski (2013) mentioned that, the mass media, which can be defined as information spread by technological channels aimed at a large anonymous audience, have long been of interest to social scientists. Many studies have documented their influence on individual attitudes and behaviours. While mass media influences have been linked to other demographic behaviour, such as fertility limitation, less is known about their effect on migration. Media influences have both a structural and ideational component that affect migration directly by shaping the self-identity of consumers, and indirectly by providing new sources of information and options.

Theories of rural out-migration identify a range of determinants affecting an individual’s desire to migrate, including economic, social, and cultural factors. Economic theories focus on market forces, and include neoclassical, human capital, and new economics of migration models. The neoclassical model highlights wage differentials between regions as a primary determinant of migration. It views migration as the result of a cost-benefit analysis made by individuals deciding where to move in order to maximize their expected lifetime earnings (Piotrowski, 2013).

238

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play?

Human capital models focus on skill differentials affecting productivity in urban versus rural labour markets. According to this view, migrants who are young, better educated, less risk averse, and more achievement-oriented are positively selected into migration. New economics of migration models describe migration as a response to absent or imperfect capital, securities, and futures markets. This perspective views migration as part of a joint strategy between migrants and rural farming households aimed at maximizing household utility through risk diversification and investment (Stark, 1991). Relative deprivation theory, a variant of the new economics of migration perspective, argues that household migration decisions are influenced by relative, as well as absolute, income considerations. Households that experience a perception of relative disadvantage vis-à-vis their peer group (due to inequalities in resource holdings) will be more likely to send migrants.

Network and cultural models describe social mechanisms that perpetuate migration, once started (Massey, 1987). Migrant networks connect migrants, former migrants, and non-migrants in origin and destination areas through ties of kinship, friendship, and shared community origin. Network ties develop that increase the likelihood of movement by lowering the costs and risks associated with migration and by increasing the expected net returns to migration (Massey, Arango, Hugo, Kouaouci, Pellegrino and Taylor, 1993). Migrants at destination represent important sources of social capital for prospective migrants, providing information about jobs, housing, and other opportunities. Over time, as the number of social ties between sending and receiving areas grows, more people migrate, and migration emerges as a mass phenomenon. Networks are maintained by an ongoing process of return migration, where migrants regularly go home for varying periods each year and settled migrants return to their communities of origin (Massey, 1987).

Cultural explanations of migration describe the diffusion of cultural artifacts from migration sending to receiving areas, and the development of normative and institutional changes that make migration a permanent feature of community life. Both are associated with the concept of “transnational social fields”, which suggests that values, behaviors, and attitudes from sending and receiving societies combine to create a new, largely autonomous social space that transcends national boundaries.

The diffusion perspective is associated with the notion of social remittances, which refers to ideas, behaviors, identities, and social capital that flow from receiving to sending communities. Social remittances represent a local level form of cultural diffusion emanating from migrants who return to live in or visit their community of origin. Social remittances also come from interchanges of letters, videos, cassettes, and telephone calls between migrants and non-migrants. Through exposure to social remittances, those living in sending communities begin to adopt features of foreign behaviors and lifestyles into their self-identity, including the desire to migrate.

Another perspective focuses on a “culture of migration,” which refers to the development of normative expectations in migration-sending communities that encourage migration (Kandel and Massey, 2002). In communities characterized by long-standing and high rates of migration, individuals begin to valorize foreign wage labor and its associated behaviors, attitudes, and lifestyles. As migration behavior extends throughout a community, it eventually becomes normative, and migration becomes a rite of passage into adulthood. Normative expectations put

239

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 considerable pressure on young people to migrate, and those not attempting it are seen as indolent, un-enterprising, or undesirable as marriage partners (cited in Piotrowski, 2013).

Methodology

This discursive paper is based on content analysis of secondary library data. According to Asemah, Gubawu, Ekhareafo and Okpanachi (2012) content analysis is an analysis based on the manifest content of the mass media message. Wright (1986) describes content analysis as a research technique for the systematic classification and description of communication content according to certain, usually predetermined categories (Cited in Asemah et al, 2012). Ajala (1999) also defines content analysis as the systematic objective and quantitative procedure devised to examine the content of recorded information. Looking at the meaning of content analysis, it can be used in research project that seeks to describe and explain communication.

Therefore, this paper reviewed literature on Information and Communication Technologies use by migrants when they are in their host countries. The main sources of data for the study included a review of existing secondary data on information and communication technologies use by migrants to make deductions and inferences about ICTs use by migrants.

Result of the Findings

Mass Media Influences on Migration

Mass media, like social remittances, are another source of exposure to ideas and lifestyles that spread via diffusion, inducing ideational change in self-image. In poor countries, newspapers, radio programs, movies, and television shows are typically produced in cities or are imported from abroad (Barber and Axinn, 2004). They represent a significant source of urban or Western ideas, practices, and lifestyles that contrast sharply with rural vernacular culture. In developing regions newly exposed to outside influences, these ideas and images (like other forms of cultural diffusion) are especially powerful agents of social change that have an influence on local practices and self- concepts (Johnson, 2001).

For instance, movies and television programs glamorize consumerism and positively portray characters that experience social mobility and achievement. Poor rural farmers, who come in contact with images depicting lifestyles that differ considerably from their own, may begin to develop a sense of relative deprivation and a desire for modern amenities (Johnson, 2001). As a consequence, they develop attitudes favorable to migration, which they believe to be a means of alleviating their relative deprivation (Mai, 2005). Like the culture of migration, notions about the desirability of modern or urban lifestyles and amenities can come to dominate community norms.

In the event that an attitudinal change leads to actual migration, the media represents a direct behavioral influence. This is analogous to the neoclassical economic model of migration, whereby people move to areas where they expect higher earnings (or a better lifestyle or more amenities). Similar to information provided through a migrant network, the media can also induce direct behavioral changes by increasing knowledge about new opportunities. For example, a rural villager who learns of employment potential in a nearby city from reading a newspaper or from listening to the radio may migrate there in search of a specific position. Furthermore, it has been

240

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play? suggested that television can play an important role in the pre-arrival acculturation of immigrants who view foreign media before arriving in a given country (Rumbaut, 1997).

Despite their similarities, the influence of mass media differs from other migration determinants in important ways. Although the media shapes cultural meanings and represents a source of information, it contrasts with social remittances or social network contacts. While the latter are transmitted between close social contacts, the former is usually disseminated in an impersonal way (Curran and Saguy, 2001). Another difference between media and other factors is that, unlike network and cultural determinants, the media does not necessarily develop as a consequence of expansion of migration streams.

Instead, much like educational or economic factors, the media can represent an influence that affects migration perceptions independent of the stage of migration development within a community. For instance, the building of a movie theatre near a rural village may attract media consumers, whose movie watching can encourage migration. However, it is also possible that migrants, through movement to areas with different media profiles, can develop a taste for forms of media that are not available in the migration sending region. Returning or visiting migrants may bring back and disseminate media technology (e.g. radios, television sets, newspapers), encouraging others to migrate. Also, media images and perspectives may become more salient and meaningful if they are similar to accounts of returning migrants (Curran and Saguy, 2001). Media influence, therefore, must be understood as a function of availability, ownership, and consumption.

In order for the media to impact behavior, some form of it must be available. In developing regions, the mix of available media types changes over time. It is likely that preferences for existing media types change to reflect the availability of new forms of media. For example, in the absence of other media types, inexpensive and technologically simple forms of media, such as newspaper or radio, are likely the preferred sources for news and information (although for the former, acceptance may depend on the literacy rate). As more sophisticated and visually appealing forms of media become available over time (such as television and movies), their popularity spreads and preferences for them develop.

Availability alone is not sufficient for media to change attitudes and behaviors. Only those who consume media by watching television, listening to the radio, or reading a newspaper can be affected by it. While consumption of media is usually linked to ownership, one need not own media technology in order to consume it. For instance, it is likely that those who are the first to own a new form of media technology, like a television set, attract groups of peers who themselves do not own the media, but are nonetheless eager to consume it and are therefore subject to its effects (Johnson, 2001 cited in Piotrowski, 2013).

Roles of Media in Discouraging Potential Migrants

The prominence of migration as a public policy issue and newsworthy topic has perhaps never been more pronounced. Migration is increasingly seen as a high-priority policy issue by many governments, politicians and the broader public throughout the world. Its importance to economic prosperity, human development, and safety and security ensures that it will remain a top priority for the foreseeable future. This is becoming more pronounced at the national level as the focus on migration intensifies, but it is also evident at the international level. Incremental

241

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 advancements in international cooperation on migration have taken a further step with States committing to agree a global compact for safe, orderly and regular migration in 2018.

Barely a day goes by without multiple media reports – whether in traditional or newer forms of media – focusing on aspects of migration, frequently on negative aspects. While this may reflect, in part, the changing nature of migration in certain regions of the world, it is important to be aware how media and news are constructed and produced – news reporting continues to place greater emphasis on “bad” news. Social media is widely acknowledged as a forum that provides little or no filter, with the consequence that there tends to be much greater emphasis on opinion than on facts and analysis. Amid the often polarized political, public and media discussions and debates on migration, evidence, knowledge and balanced analyses that encompass historical insights as well as strategic implications appear to have little space or traction. Nonetheless, such aspects continue to be critical to developing a better understanding of the various forms and manifestations of migration, as well as how best to enhance its opportunities and benefits and respond to the challenges that it can present (International Organization for Migration, 2018).

The meaning of irregular migration is not always clear as there is no universally accepted definition. It is still often used interchangeably with ‘illegal migration’ even though ’illegal migration’ is increasingly restricted to cases of smuggling and trafficking of persons (Lopez, 2015). For the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), irregular migration is movement of people that takes place outside the regulatory norms of the sending, transit and receiving countries.

Campaigns to reduce irregular migration generally occur in countries of origin, aimed at deterring migrants from leaving. Understanding the decisions to leave is therefore a key part of success. The assumption is that a lack of accurate information generates irrational and risky irregular migration behaviours. If migrants were informed of the proper conditions of entry, they would be deterred from unlawful migration. Information campaigns are not intended to stop migration, but rather to inform of the risks and dangers of irregular routes, smuggling or trafficking (Pécoud, 2010).

International migration and asylum seeking are complex phenomena depending on a number of factors and conditions – social, political and economic – which go beyond national borders and jurisdictions, and are highly dynamic and interactive. The mediatisation and politicisation of migration and asylum serves to produce simple black and white accounts of such complex phenomena, subjugated to dominant discourses on who belongs, who is the national ingroup and who are the ‘aliens’, the ‘outsiders’. What remains untold however and unexplained are the positives stories of migration and asylum (that do not make headlines) as well as the ways in which news are constructed through specific media routines that tend to ignore the perspective of migrants and refugees themselves, and which actually de facto exclude migrant journalists from the media industry (Triandafyllidou, 2017).

Roles of Media in Dealing with Migration as a Security Matter

In recent years, international migration has made its way to the forefront of the security agendas of several states, particularly in Europe and North America. The perception of immigration as a threat to security has developed alongside the rapid increase in the number of

242

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play? immigrants worldwide: while there were approximately 191 million persons living outside their countries of origin in 2005, by 2010 this number had increased to an estimated 214 million (IOM, 2010). In the most general sense of the term, security refers to the absence of threats. The traditional approach to international security has focused primarily on military concerns. From this perspective, the state is the referent object needing protection from threatening forces, particularly that of war (Peoples and Vaughan-Williams, 2010).

The concept of societal security primarily deals with the issue of collective identity. As explained by Ole Waever (1993), societal security “concerns the ability of a society to persist in its essential character under changing conditions and possible or actual threats.” In relation to international migration, it refers to the ways in which members of a state perceive their cultural, linguistic, religious, or national identity to be threatened by immigrants. From this perspective, the national values of the receiving country is the referent object under threat (Weiner, 1993). It is immigration in general, whether voluntary or involuntary, legal or illegal, that constitutes this threat, as long as the immigrants pose a challenge to the identity of the receiving state through their different language, culture, or religion (cited in Tallmeister, 2013).

The supposed danger of immigration to the societal security of a state is not an objective and universal threat, but rather a subjective threat, dependent on the ways in which the receiving state defines itself (Weiner, 1993). For instance, while some states may view multiculturalism as undesirable, other states may pride themselves on their cultural diversity.

Another way in which immigration has been argued to pose a threat to a state’s national interest is through its impact on the state’s economy. Immigration has, and will continue to have, a significant economic impact on both the receiving country and the country of origin. While immigration has economic advantages and disadvantages, the expansion of the definition of security to encompass the economic sector has brought increased attention to the economic challenges caused by immigration, and immigration has, as a result, been labeled as a security issue. It is economic migrants as well as refugees and asylum seekers that are perceived to threaten the economic security of a state. Labour migration can be argued to pose a threat to the economic security of both the sending and the receiving state. According to this argument, the emigration of highly skilled and qualified workers from developing countries in the global South to developed states in the global North results in a “brain drain” in the sending country, as well as undesirable economic consequences in the receiving country (Guild, 2009).

In addition to societal and economic security, internal security has also emerged as an aspect of security which is threatened by immigration. The notion of immigration as a threat to internal security has been present since the 1980s (Huysmans, 2000). As highlighted by Huysmans, the Schengen Agreement and Convention of Dublin connected immigration to terrorism, international crime, and border control (Huysmans, 2000). Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, immigration has featured prominently on the counter-terrorism agenda; governments have tightened immigration policies, linking immigration with terrorist activities (Spencer, 2008).

In the United States, immigration immediately became a matter of national security. President Bush quickly put forth a strategy to combat terrorism through immigration policy, and the United States Immigration and Naturalization Service was included in the newly established Department of Homeland Security (Spencer, 2008). Similarly, immigration has been connected

243

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 with terrorism, immigration has also been related to increased criminality, resulting in the perception that immigration is a threat to public security. The issue of whether or not immigration actually results in increased crime rates is, again, an issue of perception versus reality. While the public has become increasingly concerned about high crime rates intensified by immigration and the threat that immigrants pose to public order, these concerns are empirically unsound (Wang, 2012). Contrary to popular opinion, several studies on a number of states have found no strong correlation between immigration and criminality.

It cannot be denied that in some states, there has been a connection between increased immigration flows and increased crime rates. There is, indeed, a trend showing that cities and countries that have high crime rates tend to have a higher immigrant population. For instance, a study found that in 2001, “the proportion of the prison population born abroad in Spain was twenty- five times higher than the proportion of immigrants in the population” (Westbrook, 2010).

News on migration are gathered when something sensational and worth reporting happens. And this is usually something ‘bad’ related to migrants or migration. Coverage on migration is often dictated by the more general political agenda and by for instance upcoming election campaigns. Nonetheless there are several journalists who are concerned about the quality and even-handedness of their reporting who go beyond the political agenda to cover issues that they see as worth reporting because people want to know more about them. The issues reported often cover personalised, emotion-laden stories that can interest a wider public (stories that show the ‘human’ and ‘everyday’ aspect of migration such as families reunited, children excelling in school, people fleeing conflict and losing their spouse, parent or sibling in the process, or of course also stories of trafficking and prostitution). Such stories include stereotypical accounts of migrants in general and women migrants in particular. They tend to conform to three stereotypical representations of the migrant (woman) as victim, hero or threat. While such representations can be positive they tend to highlight the personal (and highly gendered) dimension at the expense of the structural factors behind migrant integration and participation in the destination country and the real life issues they face. They thus tend to act against the normalisation of migration and its mainstreaming in terms of welfare, employment or general political participation issues (Hennebry, William, Celis-Parra and Daley, 2017, cited in Triandafyllidou, 2017).

Mass Media Educative Information on Irregular Migrants in Host Countries.

Research in communication is now focusing on a new emergent uses of media in relation to migration that have so far received little academic attention: media deployments for the purposes of preventing, stopping but also more generally regulating cross-border migration and mobility, through old and new communication technologies but also through media technologies that are aimed at surveillance, identification and authentication. All of these uses, it will be argued, importantly shape contemporary migration regimes and the ability of migrants and those who facilitate their mobility to negotiate them. What is required for a consideration of some of these uses is a reconceptualization of the concept of media, in order to free it from its common-sense implications of communication technologies and “content” circulated for the purpose of communication as texts, images and sound. It is such an understanding that by and large dominates the literature on media and migration. Yet, if we think of media instead in a wider sense as sign technologies that allow individuals and organizations to construct, filter, store and transmit representations of mobile bodies beyond mass communicative purposes, quite different media

244

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play? practices, infrastructures and informational/representational interests around migration can become visible, as will be shown in the second part of this essay (Kosnick, 2014).

In the field of media and migration, I therefore suggest looking beyond what has been described above as the “standard fare” of dominant research interests and turning attention to several recent developments of media deployment in the interest of regulating migration. The first examples continue in a sense the “classical” concerns of media and migration research in that they discuss mass-media production intended to communicate particular “messages” concerning the dangers of migratory flows to particular audiences. However, the target audiences of these messages are not so much the lawful residents and citizens of destination countries but rather those deemed at risk of embarking on migration projects in transit countries and countries of origin. Both governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) acting on their behalf have started to use mass media to reach out to potential migrant audiences and discourage them from embarking on their journey. Media representations have thus become a factor with which to directly intervene in migration flows, by providing particular and often gendered narratives of danger and tragic failure with regard to border crossings, and by purporting to depict the harsh realities that await undocumented migrants in their destination country (Castel, 1993).

While such governmental initiatives have attracted some attention – not just among their primary intended target audiences, but also in mass-media reporting reaching audiences in “destination countries” – other, much more consequential uses of media technologies for the regulation of migratory movements across borders have thus far received even less critical attention among migration studies scholars. These forms of media use have to do not so much with the communicative politics of representation intended to influence minds, but rather with the informative politics of representation meant to gather data that can unambiguously establish the identity of border-crossing individuals and assess their level of desirability, legitimacy or “threat”. The contemporary policing of borders increasingly relies upon information technologies that mediate representations of bodies in order to build up databases and produce individual profiles used to manage the cross-border flow of people. Such uses of media are becoming more ubiquitous, forming part of both commercial and governance strategies of managing bodies and populations at the beginning of the 21st century (Horst, 2006).

In the past few years, governments and related agencies in Europe and the United States have developed new strategies to prevent potential migrants from trying to leave their places of origin in the first place. This is a “hearts and minds” approach in the sense that it forms part of a repertoire of new border-control measures that have direct communicative dimensions. State- funded media campaigns aiming to deter potential migrants in their countries of origin are proliferating, often with the help of NGOs. Study has shown a wide range of efforts by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to employ deterrence “information” campaigns in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia and Central America (Kosnick, 2014).

The point of such campaigns is to convince potential migrants that it is better not to embark on the journey, as attempted in a television campaign that the Spanish government launched in Senegal in 2007. The TV campaign showed drastic images of washed-up male corpses along Spanish beaches, and a tearful African mother and father mourning the death of their sons, full of remorse for not having deterred their children from embarking on the journey. The famous

245

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Senegalese singer Youssou N’Dour lent his voice to the campaign, telling potential migrants that they are “the future of Africa” and pleading with them not to leave (Kosnick, 2014).

Apart from TV ads, the Spanish government and IOM simultaneously started a broad campaign advertised in print magazines and on public buses in Senegal. Images on buses showed for example a young man holding a small child against the backdrop of the Senegalese flag, with a text below stating “it makes no sense”. Images largely focused on the grief of family members left behind and the intergenerational impact of young men leaving the continent (Kosnick, 2014).

Pictures in print magazines were of a more drastic nature, using images of capsized boats and dead bodies to illustrate the likely fate of those embarking on the journey across the Mediterranean Sea: “Don’t risk your life for nothing – you are the future of Africa.” Those who embark on the dangerous journey are likely to face death, the images announced, but the underlying narrative amounted to more than that. The dangers involved appear as naturally given: while the risk of death during the boat passage across the Mediterranean Sea has increased due to migrants having to resort to increasingly long routes in order to evade detection and forced return by border police and other state agents, the risk of death is attributed solely to the dangers of the sea and the ill-preparedness of migrants who enter overcrowded boats. The factors that propel Africans to risk their lives in order to seek a better future in Europe are not mentioned at all (Kosnick, 2014).

Mass Media Awareness Creation Campaigns in Migrants on Security Threats to Countries of Migration

Nieuwenhuys and Pécoud (2007) hinted that information campaigns aimed at potential migrants in their countries of origin (and sometimes in transit countries) have been used by European states since the early 1990s (Cited in Oeppen, 2016). Information campaigns’ specific content and modes of delivery vary but normally include a combination of informing potential migrants about the procedural aspects of immigration/asylum in the destination country (including removals and deportations) and the risks of travelling through non-regularized channels, particularly the risks of being smuggled or trafficked. In theory, and according to the UNHCR’s guidance (2011), they should not be used to discourage people from seeking asylum where protection is needed, and should provide information about regularized migration routes where they exist. Information campaigns represent an interesting sub-section of migration management in the context of increasingly restrictive European migration regimes. It is hard to argue that providing information is detrimental to the potential migrant, especially if it purports to have the safety of the migrant as its priority; consequently, it is an area of migration management where migration policymakers can draw in NGOs and community organizations, as well as intra governmental partners such as Development Ministries, in ways that would be impossible for more control-orientated activities (Pécoud, 2010).

A number of practice-orientated reports provide guidelines on how to design and operate information campaigns (UNHCR, 2011). Browne (2015) provides a useful summary of what is thought to be best practice, including using multiple media techniques to convey the information in an engaging way, and targeting the whole community in recognition that family and social networks are often highly influential in shaping migration aspirations and decisions. However, it

246

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play? is important to note that even those who promote information campaigns as an important migration management tool are not clear on how to evaluate what makes a successful campaign.

In addition, Nieuwenhuys and Pécoud (2007) mentioned that, the basic narrative of information campaigns aimed at discouraging migration is that, if potential migrants can be made aware of the risks, particularly the risks of travelling outside regularized channels (for example, with a smuggler), they will not migrate. Consequently, migration is represented as almost exclusively negative, with little chance of success for the migrants involved (Cited in Oeppen, 2016). Yet, clearly, people do continue to migrate, and take great bodily and financial risks to do so. Does this mean that the information campaigns have failed to reach the right target audiences? Perhaps, however, as suggested by a number of empirical studies, is that migrants are already aware of the risks outlined by information campaigns but decide, for various reasons, to migrate anyway (Alpes and Sørensen, 2015).

In some cases, it is easy to see why, despite knowledge of the risks, people would leave: for example, those fleeing war and persecution, for whom the alternative is an even higher risk of death or injury, or those to whom the poet Warsan Shire refers in her poem, Home: ‘You have to understand, that no one puts their children in a boat, unless the water is safer than the land’. However, this does not explain why people from ‘relatively safe’ countries also take on the risks of irregular migration. Empirical work with migrants and potential migrants does shed some light on this.

For example, Carling and Hernández-Carretero’s (2011) research with Senegalese ‘boat migrants’ suggests that a) potential migrants may consider themselves already experts in the potential risks, especially if they have sea-faring experience; b) they may distrust the campaigns, especially if they suspect that these are driven by the goal of preventing migration; and c) they may decide that the improved opportunities available – if successful – justify the risk.

Meanwhile, Nieuwenhuys and Pécoud (2007) discussed the existence of ‘migration cultures’, whereby migration becomes a normative act, to be undertaken whatever the risks, similar to Monsutti’s (2007) findings regarding the social practice of migration as a ‘rite of passage’ for young Afghan men. They suggest that the ‘objective knowledge’ provided by information campaigns cannot counteract the ‘migratory disposition’: the idea that migration is a way to escape the ‘stagnation’ of everyday life (Cited in Oeppen, 2016).

Another example, the ‘Migration Aware’ campaign, implemented in the second largest city in Nigeria (Ibadan), was funded by the European Union with a budget of 200.000 euros (Van Bemmel, 2015). The aim of this campaign was to ‘fill the information gap that prevents potential migrants from making an informed decision on whether to embark’ by the distribution of information ‘on the realities of the journey, the destination country and alternatives to irregular migration.’ The project was not intended to ‘actively dissuade migration but to provide objective information without prejudices’ (Baker and Massey, 2009). One way of conveying this message was by printing posters that illustrate the risks and dangers of irregular migration.

Van Bemmel (2015) highlighted that, potential migrants are warned about engaging with people smugglers, the risk of drowning or dying in the desert or even the possibility of being attacked by pirates while at sea. Apart from this printed material, a ‘drama-documentary’ called

247

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

‘Dead End: Illegal Migration was shown in universities and community halls. The issues addressed in this film are the risks and dangers of the journey, but also the hardship one should be prepared for once Europe has been reached. Examples are disappearing in the criminal circuit, low-paid jobs and potential deportation whilst in Europe. Interestingly enough, the disseminated information largely consists of fearful imagery while no mention of legal channels or suggestions for staying put are given even if this was one of the objectives (Van Bemmel, 2015).

Conclusions

In conclusion, the scope of the mass media has gone beyond the conventional media conceptualisation, thus with the advent of new media of communication channels in migration networks, and the virtual infrastructure of media-rich, synchronous and relatively open contacts is actively transforming the nature of these migration networks and thereby facilitating migration. Interpersonal ties in migrant networks are reducing the costs and risks of migration through the exchange of information, resources and assistance. Migration network theory assumes that people go to places where they already have contacts. However, with the internet and all other social media that it encompasses, it is easier to revive or make new contacts, providing access to an extensive pool of informal information and thus widening the horizons for aspiring migrants.

Recommendations

The paper proffers the following recommendations; that the mass media should:

1) informed and educated potential migrants on proper modalities for migration and discourages them on illegal migration and its attendant dangers and threats to the security of intended host countries. 2) use the informative tone that describes the facts and the general news writing style that emphasizes recent events in order to report about immigration. 3) include voices in their articles that are mainly from official sources such as the government. 4) frame the news about immigration in terms of “illegal” and “threat”. References Aalberg, T., Aelst, P. and Curran, J. (2010). Media systems and the political information environment: A crossnational comparison. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 15(3), 255-271. Ajala, V. (2002). Scholarly Writing Guide for Researchers. Ibadan, Maybest Publishers. Alpes, J. and Sørensen, N. (2015). Migration risk campaigns are based on wrong assumptions.DIIS Policy Brief May 2015. Danish Institute for International Studies. Asemah, E.S., Gujbawu, N., Elchaneafo, D.O. & Okpanachi, R.A. (2012). ResearchMethods and Procedures in Mass Communication. Jos: Great Picture Press. Barber, J.S. and Axinn, W.G. (2004). New Ideas and Fertility Limitation: The Role of Mass Media. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 66, 1180–1200. Baker, B. and Massey, S. (2009) Irregular Migration. Filling the Information Gap. Coventry: University of Coventry.

248

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play?

Baran, S. J. and Davis D. K. (2003). Mass communication theory: Foundations, ferment, and future. Belmont (USA): Thomas-Wardworth. Browne, E. (2015). Impact of Communication Campaigns to Deter Irregular Migration.AppliedKnowledge Services. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/.../HQ1248.pdf Carling, J. and Hernández-Carretero, M. (2011). Protecting Europe and protecting migrants? Strategies for managing unauthorised migration from Africa. The British Journal of Politics and international relations, 13(1), 42-58. Dzilenski, E. (2017). Crossing the Border: The Framing of Global Migration by National News Media. Elon Journal of Undergraduate Research in Communications, 8(1), 14- 22. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/57f4/aac50520462c6e6044d4491c67398cd26793.pdf Curran, S. and Saguy, A.C. (2001). Migration and Cultural Change: A Role for Gender and Social Networks? Journal of International Women’s Studies, 2(3), 54–77. Guild, E. (2009). Security and Migration in the 21st Century. Cambridge: Polity Press. Hennebry, J., Williams, K., Celis-Parra, D. and Daley, R. (2017). Mis/Representations of Women Migrant Workers in the Media: A Critical Solution, UN Women. Retrieved fromhttp://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/ publications/2017/mis-representation-of-women-migrant-workers-in-the-media-en. pdf?la=en&vs=3112 Horst, H. (2006). “The Blessings and Burdens of Communication: Cell Phones in Jamaican Transnational Social Fields.” Global Networks 6(2), 143–159. Retrieved from DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0374.2006.00138.x

Huysmans, J. (2000). “The European Union and the Securitization of Migration.” Journal of Common Market Studies 39(5), 751-777. International Organization for Migration (IOM) (2018). World Migration Report 2018. The UN Migration Agency, IOM: Geneva. Retrieved from https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/wmr_2018_en.pdf Johnson, K. (2001). Media and Social Change: The Modernizing Influences of Television in Rural India. Media, Culture and Society. 2001; 23, 147–169. Kandel, W. & Massey, D. (2002). The Culture of Migration: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. Social Forces, 80(3), 981–1004. Kosnick, K. (2014). Mediating Migration: New Roles for (Mass) Media. The French Journal of Media Studies. Para 1-37. Retrieved from https://journals.openedition.org/inmedia/761 Lopez, L.E. (2015). Early warning models for irregular migration (GSDRC Helpdesk Research Report 1241).Birmingham, UK: GSDRC, University of Birmingham. Retrieved from http://www.gsdrc.org/go/display&type=Helpdesk&id=1241

249

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Mai, N. (2005). The Albanian Diaspora-in-the-Making: Media, Migration, and Social Exclusion. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 31(3), 543–561. McQuail, D. (1987). Mass communication theory: An introduction. London: SAGE publications. Massey, D.S. (1987). Understanding Mexican Migration to the United States. The American Journal of Sociology, 92(6), 1372–1403. Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A. and Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of international migration: A review and appraisal. Population and Development Review, 431-466. Oeppen, C. (2016). Leaving Afghanistan! Are you Sure? European Efforts to Deter Potential Migrants Through Information Campaigns, Human Geography, 9(2), 57-68. Pécoud, A. (2010). ‘Informing Migrants to Manage Migration? An Analysis of IOM's Information Campaigns’. In M. Geiger & A. Pécoud (Eds.) The Politics of International Migration Management. Palgrave Macmillan. Retrieved from http://www.freelists.org/archives/colombiamigra/062013/pdf4LDT5DyS9G.pdf#page =194 Peoples, C. and Vaughan-Williams, N. (2010). Critical Security Studies: An Introduction. London: Routledge. Piotrowski, M. (2013). Mass Media and Rural Out-Migration in the Context of Social Change: Evidence from Nepal. International Migration, 51(3), 169-193. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3724225/ doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2435.2010.00627.x Spencer, A. (2008). “Linking Immigrants and Terrorists: The Use of Immigration as an Anti- Terror Policy.” The Online Journal of Peace and Conflict Resolution 8(1), 1-24. Stark, O. (1991). The Migration of Labor. New York, NY: Basil Blackwell. Tallmeister, J. (2013). Is Immigration a Threat to Security? E-International Relations Students. Retrieved from https://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/24/is-immigration-a- threat-to-security/

Threadgold, T. (2009). The Media and Migration in the United Kingdom, 199 to 2009. Transatlantic council on Migration. A Project of the Migration Policy Institute. Migration Policy Institute. Retrieved from https://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/TCM-UKMedia.pdf Triandafyllidou, A. (2017) ‘Media Coverage on Migration: Promoting a Balanced Reporting’, in McAuliffe, M. and M. Klein Solomon (Conveners) (2017) Ideas to Inform International Cooperation on Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, IOM: Geneva. UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), UNHCR Global Trends 2011: A Year of Crises, 18 June2012. Retrieved from https://www.refworld.org/docid/4fdeccbe2.html

250

Mediating Migration and Security Issues: What Roles Can Mass Media Play?

Van Bemmel, S. (2015). Informing potential migrants about the risks of unauthorized migration: The perception of risk among prospective migrants in Ghana. Thesis for the Master of International Relations: University of Amsterdam Waever, O. (1993). “Societal Security: The Concept.” In: Waever, O., B. Buzan, M. Kelstrup and P. Lemaitre, eds. Identity, Migration and the New Security Agenda in Europe. London: Pinter Publishers, pp.17-40. Wang, X. (2012). “Undocumented Immigrants as Perceived Criminal Threat: A Test of the Minority Threat Perspective.” Criminology 50(3), 743-776. Weiner, M. (1993). “Security, Stability, and International Migration.” International Security 17(3), 91-126. Westbrook, R. (2010). “Immigration and Crime in Catalonia, Spain: What’s the Connection? Towards a Theory on Immigrant Crime.” Claremont-US Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union: Vol 2010, Article 10, 101-119. Retrieved from http://scholarship.claremont.edu/urceu/vol2010/iss1/10/.

251

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State

1Ekwueme, Anthony and 1Onyeme, Benson

1Department of Mass Communication, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State. [email protected]@gmail.com

Abstract

The study set out to determine the influence of broadcast media enlightenment campaigns on the prevalence of breast cancer among women in Delta State. The specific objectives were to determine the level of women’s awareness of breast cancer in Delta State; to identify the broadcast medium through which women in Delta State mostly access messages on breast cancer; to ascertain the extent to which broadcast media enlightenment campaigns had prompted women in Delta State to engage in breast cancer preventive strategies; and to determine factors that impede women’s access to broadcast media messages on breast cancer in Delta State. The research adopted the descriptive survey research design to generate both quantitative and qualitative data through questionnaire and in-depth interview. A sample size of 405 was drawn from women in Delta State. It was found that women’s awareness of breast cancer in Delta State was very high (99.8%). The findings also indicated that radio was the primary medium through which women in Delta State access messages on breast cancer. The findings further showed that broadcast media enlightenment campaigns have prompted majority (72.6%) of the women in the state to practise breast self- examination as part of preventive strategies against breast cancer. The study, among others, recommended that the media and other relevant stakeholders should do more in creating awareness in a manner that will give women thorough knowledge of the prevalence of the disease, especially as some of the women studied indicated that they were ‘moderately aware’ of the disease; and that most information on breast cancer should be disseminated to members of the public, particularly those in Delta State, through radio.

Keywords: Broadcast media, enlightenment campaigns, prevalence, breast cancer, women, Delta State.

Introduction

Cancer is one of the deadliest diseases plaguing humanity the world over. In Nigeria, cancer is a major killer-disease. Statistics indicate that mortality from the disease has drastically increased in the country in recent time. According to the Committee Encouraging Corporate Philanthropy (CECP), (as quoted in Okoghenun, 2014), there are over 100,000 Nigerians diagnosed with cancer, with 80,000 dying of the disease every year. CECP further notes that four in every five cancer patients die in Nigeria, making the country one of the countries in the world with the worst cancer statistics.

In February 2015, doctors raised the alarm that more Nigerians were dying of cancer, even as the majority of victims were women. Adebayo (2015) quotes the Head of Oncology and Radiotherapy Unit of the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Idi-Araba, Prof. Remi Ajeigbe, as stating that, “Cancer rates are soaring globally and Nigeria is no exception; at present, there are about two

252

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State million cancer cases recorded in Nigeria; besides, we record about 100,000 new patients every year.”

Many prominent Nigerians have lost their lives to one form of cancer or the other. These, among other numerous ones, include former military vice president, Admiral Augustus Aikhomu (rtd), former Nigerian First Lady, Mrs. Maryam Babangida, wife of the immediate past Edo State Governor, Mrs. Clara Oshiomhole, former Adviser to ex-president Goodluck Jonathan on Research, Documentation and Strategy, Oronto Douglas, former Director-General of the National Agency for Foods and Drugs Administration and Control (NAFDAC), Prof. Dora Akunyili, former presidential spokesperson, Mrs. Oluremi Oyo, as well as former Director-General of the Centre for Democratic Studies (CDS), Prof. Omo Omoruyi (Okoghenun, 2014).

It is not only prominent persons that have died of or are suffering from cancer in Nigeria. All over the country, deaths resulting from the disease are being recorded from time to time, just as the number of patients battling with it is on the increase.

But while there are various forms of cancer, such as prostate cancer, liver cancer, breast cancer, ovarian cancer, lung cancer, cervical cancer, to mention but a few, medical experts say breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. According to Nelson (2013, p.1), breast cancer is a major cause of death among women, aged 30 years and above. The World Health Organization, WHO (2015), describes breast cancer as the top cancer in women both in the developed and the developing countries. With reference to Nigeria’s breast cancer situation, Adetifa and Ojikutu (2009) write thus:

In Nigeria, between 1960 and 1980, cervical cancer had 19.9% prevalence while breast cancer had 11.2%, but between 1981and 1995, breast cancer has taken over the lead with 25.7% while cervical cancer followed closely with 22.7%. These statistics... show breast cancer to be rated first among all other cancers.

Although breast cancer is survivable if detected early and treated, mortality from the disease has continued to soar in developing countries of which Nigeria is a part. Makanjuola, Amoo, Ajibade and Makinde (2013, p. 32) adduce some reasons for this ugly trend. According to them,

The low survival rates in less developed countries may be explained mainly by lack of early detection programmes, lack of adequate diagnosis and treatment facilities which results in a high proportion of women presenting with late stage disease.

And according to WHO (2015), although some risk reduction might be achieved with prevention, majority of breast cancers cannot be eliminated in low and middle income countries where breast cancer is diagnosed in very late stages. “Therefore,” WHO (2015) emphasizes, “early detection in order to improve breast cancer outcome and survival remains the cornerstone of breast cancer control.” A general public awareness creation about the disease is a crucial function of the media, in line with the agenda-setting theory from which this study draws its strength. The media are expected to, in a robust and aggressive manner, set the agenda about breast cancer for public enlightenment. For, according to Daramola (2001, p.50), “the media decide what they think should

253

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

be on the priority consideration of the people.” Sadly, however, while cases of breast cancer in Nigeria have assumed a worrisome dimension, media awareness campaigns and enlightenment about the disease do not seem to have received much boost.Delta state, being a part of Nigeria, has apparently not fared better in this regard. The state shares the nation’s breast cancer burden. Most deaths from the disease have continued to be attributed to its late detection and treatment, a situation which raises doubts about the actual level of women’s awareness of the disease.

At the time of this study, available literature revealed a dearth of media-based empirical works on breast cancer among women in Delta State. Consequently, there was little or no knowledge of the actual level of influence the broadcast media enlightenment campaigns had on women in the state regarding the disease. The lack of knowledge or information about the influence of the media in this regard had further made it difficult to determine with certainty the most appropriate medium or media to use in disseminating information on breast cancer to women in the State.

What is more, while factors like family history of breast cancer, prolonged null parity, among others, could prompt women to engage in breast cancer preventive measures, the media are arguably the most potent instrument that could engender engagement in such measures. Yet in Delta state, the extent to which the broadcast media induced engagement in breast cancer preventive strategies was hardly known. This study, therefore, aimed to fill this gap in literature. The specific objectives of the study were to: i. determine the level of women’s awareness of breast cancer in Delta State; ii. identify the broadcast medium through which women in Delta State mostly access messages on breast cancer; iii. ascertain the extent to which these media enlightenment messages have prompted women to engage in such breast cancer preventive strategies as breast self-examination, mammography and clinical breast examination; iv. determine the factors, if any, that impede women’s access to broadcast media messages on breast cancer in Delta State.

Theoretical Framework

This study was anchored on the Agenda Setting Theory and the Health Belief Model (HBM).

The agenda setting theory

The basic idea of the Agenda Setting Theory is that the media set agenda for the public to follow. In other words, there is a close relationship between the manner in which the mass media present issues and the level of importance attached to such issues by the consumers of media content. In 1963, a political scientist, Benard Cohen wrote in his book, The Press and the Foreign Policy, that “the press may not be successful much of the time in telling people what to think, but it is stunningly successful in telling them what to think about” (Daramola, 2001 p. 50).

According to Wogu (2008 p. 139), although the processes leading to the agenda setting theory were not begun by Benard Chen, it was he who popularized the theory and first articulated earlier views into a more astute line of thought today coined as Agenda Setting Theory. However, further strength was given to the Agenda Setting Theory by Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw (1972 p. 176), who, after an empirical research, submitted, among other things, that:

254

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State

Readers learn not only about a given issue, but also how much importance to attach to that issue from the amount of information in a news story and its position… The mass media may well determine the important issues, that is, the media may set the ‘agenda’ … Wogu, 2008 p. 142).

The theory holds that most of the pictures we store in our minds, most of the things we think or worry about, most of the issues we discuss, are based on what we have read, listened to or watched in different mass media. The media make us think about certain issues, they make us think or feel that certain issues are more important than others in our society (Asemah, 2011 p.176).

Among the elements involved in agenda setting, according to Folarin (1998 p 69) as cited in Wogu (2008 p. 141), include the quality or frequency of reporting, the prominence given to the report through headline display, pictures and layout in newspapers, magazines, film, graphics or timing on radio and television, as well as the cumulative media-specific effects overtime.

What the foregoing means to this study, therefore, is that if the broadcast media choose to give significant airtime to the reportage of breast cancer and all issues associated with it, such issues will become the most important issues on the minds of the media audiences.

The Health Belief Model

The Health Belief Model (HBM) is a social cognition model developed by Irwin M. Rosenstock in 1966. It is a psychological and health behaviour change model for studying and promoting medical programmes of some public health services. The model was subsequently modified to accommodate emerging realities in the area of health. The HBM was originally designed to predict behavioural responses to the treatment received by chronically ill patients, but has recently been used to predict more general health behaviours. According to Burke (2013 p.1), the focus of the HBM is to assess health behaviour of individuals through examination of perceptions and attitudes someone may have towards a disease and the negative outcomes of certain actions. The HBM further posits that people will take action to undergo a health prevention behaviour when they are ready, they see it as beneficial, and the difficulty is not greater than what is to be gained (Lizewski, 2012 p.3).

Burke equally observes that the HBM assumes that behaviour change occurs with the existence of three ideas at the same time:

1. An individual recognizes that there is enough reason to make a health concern relevant (perceived susceptibility and severity). 2. That person understands he or she may be vulnerable to the disease or negative health outcome (perceived threat). 3. Lastly, the individual must realize that behaviour change can be beneficial and the benefits of that change will outweigh any costs of doing so (perceived benefits and barriers) (Burke, 2013 p.1).

Perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits and perceived barriers are thus the constructs of the original model. The constructs have, however, been modified to explain other important issues that need to be explained in the constructs.

255

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

From the above discussions, the relevance of the agenda-setting theory and the Health Belief Model to this study can be clearly seen. The agenda-setting theory will help the media to bring issues related to breast cancer to the front burner so as to increase public enlightenment about the disease. The HBM, on the other hand, helps to assess the health behaviours of individuals through examination of the perception and attitude one may have towards a disease (in this case, breast cancer), and the negative outcomes of such actions.

Breast cancer: An overview

According to the National Cancer Institute (2015), “Breast cancer is a disease in which malignant (cancer) cells form in the tissues of the breast”. Breast cancer is a dreaded disease and a major cause of cancer mortality among women worldwide. Although breast cancer is mainly the disease of women, it also occurs in men. Irurhe, Raji, Olowoyeye, Arogundade, Soyebi, Ibitoye, Abonyi and Eniyandunni (2012, p.1), however, maintain that “breast cancer is rare in men, being of the ratio 1:100 compared to women”, and tends to occur in hypogonadic males (men with BRCAI and BRCA2 genetic mutations) and those with chromosomal abnormalities. BRCAI and BRCA2 are human genes that belong to a class of genes known as tumor suppressors. Changes in BRCAI and BRCA2 genetic cells therefore result in breast cancer (National Cancer Institute, 2009, p.2 & 4), as cited in Omerigwe (2012 p.13).

In Nigeria, the prevalence rate of breast cancer is high. According to Makanjuola et al (2013 p. 32), “the prevalence rate of breast cancer in a study in Nigeria was 115 per 100,000, and 27,840 cases were expected to occur in 1999.

Studies on various ethnic populations in Nigeria, especially those of the north eastern and western parts of the country have revealed the demographic profile of breast cancer. Irurhe et al (2012, p. 1), citing Matthew (1978), Khwaja, Nirodi and Lawrie (1980), Adebamowo and Adekunle (1999) and Anyanwu (2000), write as follows:

A review of breast biopsies in the Lagos University Teaching Hospital showed 34 percent of all breast biopsies done over a 10-year period to be malignant. A report from Zaria described the mean age of presentation of breast cancer as 42 years with 30 percent occurring in women less than 25 years of age. At the University College Hospital, Ibadan, 74 percent of breast cancer patients were pre-menopausal. A ten-year review of breast cancer in eastern Nigeria revealed that patients with breast cancer constituted 3 percent of all patients with breast disease and that 69 percent were pre-menopausal.

Reports have indicated that the peak age of breast cancer among Nigerian women is about 10-15 years, which is much earlier than what is observed in Caucasians in whom it occurs between the ages of 35-45 years (World Cancer Reports, 2011), as cited in Omerigwe (2012, p.14).

Breast cancer preventive measures

The National Cancer Institute (2015) explains cancer prevention as “action taken to lower the chance of getting cancer.”In applying BSE, CBE, Mammography and other screening methods,

256

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State there are a number of things to watch out for. According to the World Cancer Report (2011 p. 10), as cited in Omerigwe (2012, p.14), the following symptoms may suggest the onset of breast cancer: dimpling or puckering, unusual pain, a sore that does not heal around the nipples, itching or rash, retracted (turned in) nipples, change of shape or size, bloody discharge from the nipple, arms swelling or lump in the armpit. Only with serious engagement in screening can one detect the symptoms that are not visible to the eyes and those that cannot be detected by mere palpating of the breasts.

Mammography screening, for instance, can detect breast lumps but might not pick out other breast diseases like breast fibroid and cysts. Breast biopsy screening test is needed in this case to check for other related diseases (Omerigwe, 2012 p.20). In a recent analysis by an International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) working group, it was concluded that under trial conditions, Mammography screening may reduce breast cancer mortality by 25 – 30% and that in nation-wide screening programmes, a reduction by 20% appears feasible (World Cancer Report 2011 p. 9). Diagnostic mammography, ultra sound scan, cutting-needle biopsy and open biopsy are some of the screening techniques available for detecting breast cancer. Diagnostic mammography involves the use of x-ray to check for cancer in the breasts. Experts advise women to go for mammogram at least once every three years for early detection of breast cancer.

Another screening that can be carried out is genetic test, which is aimed at checking if there is mutation of Deoxyribonucleic Acid (DNA) genes, since such mutation is linked with development of hereditary breast and ovarian cancers. When these changes are identified by experts, appropriate treatment is offered to ensure normality. Women who have inherited harmful mutation in BRCAI or BRCA2 are said to be about five times more likely to have breast cancer than women who do not have such a mutation. The National Cancer Institute (2009 p. 14) gives further explanations on genetic testing as cited in Omerigwe (2012 p. 22):

Several methods are available to test for breast cancer BRCAI and BRCA2 mutations. It has been established that most of these methods look for changes in BRCAI and BRCA2 DNA, and changes in the proteins produced by these genes. Oftentimes, a combination of methods are [sic] used. A blood sample is required for these tests, coupled with genetic counseling before and after the tests. Screening methods such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) in women with BRCAI or BRCA2 mutations, mammography, BSE, CBE can be used.

There is therefore the need for genetic tests to check for BRCAI and BRCA2 mutations.The role of the media, especially the broadcast media, in enlightening the people on important health issues cannot be overemphasized. The media, through the agenda-setting function, are often quick to call the attention of members of the public to any sickness or disease that may pose a serious threat to their health, with a view to getting them to guard against it. It is through the media that health communication campaigns are carried out to promote the well-being of the people. Ogundoyin and Soola (2014, p.163) note that “health communication is found to be crucial in a hospital setting because the communication between a doctor and a patient bothers greatly on the issues of health where much of gathering and sharing of information remains vital to the two parties.”

257

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Some broadcast media awareness campaigns on breast cancer

In a bid to increase public awareness of breast cancer, many enlightenment campaigns have been carried out in the country in recent times. Most of these campaigns, however, only come up periodically (as against being held on a regular and consistent basis), with majority of them taking place annually, especially during the globally celebrated Breast Cancer Awareness Month (BCAM) held in October every year. Many groups, particularly non-governmental organizations, usually cash in on such occasions to raise public awareness on the disease. For instance, major radio and television stations in Nigeria, such as Radio Nigeria, RayPower FM, NTA and Channels TV, reported the road walks organized in October 2018 by the Breast Cancer Association of Nigeria (BRECAN), founded in 1997 by a breast cancer survivor and wife of the Ondo State Governor, Mrs. Betty Anyanwu-Akeredolu, as part of the activities to mark the Breast Cancer Awareness Month (BCAM). Similarly, as part of activities marking the 2019 World Cancer Day, BRECAN featured on Galaxy TV on 31st January, 2019.

Channels TV also reported that the wife of the Ogun State Governor, Mrs. Olufunso Amosun, led awareness campaigns on breast and cervical cancer to motor parks, major markets, and streets in Abeokuta, Ogun State capital, where she called on individuals and corporate bodies to step up actions against the menace of the disease. It is important to note that the broadcast stations where such campaigns are featured are national stations whose signals can be received in Delta State.

Some related studies need mentioning at this point. In a study, titled “Breast Cancer Awareness and Breast Examination Practices among Women in a Niger Delta Hospital,” Sule (2011pp. 27- 31) studied the out-patient women at the Central Hospital, Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. Copies of questionnaire were administered to women aged 20-80 years, and findings revealed, among other things, that:

There was an awareness of breast cancer in 96.1% of the women. 43.6% of the respondents knew breast cancer usually begins with a lump. Self-breast examination was practised by 45.5% of the women. Clinical breast examination had been conducted in 15.6% of the women. A monthly self- breast examination had been done in 83.3% of self-breast examination practitioners.

Like all other empirical works reviewed below, Sule’s study was not backed up with any media theory. This gap was filled in the present study, as relevant theories were employed to give strength to the work. Also, although Sule’s findings indicated a high level of breast cancer awareness among the women studied, his research findings cannot be generalized to the entire Delta State, as the study focused only on the out-patient women in the Central Hospital, Warri, Delta State. This, coupled with the fact that all other empirical works reviewed below were done outside Delta State, further underscored the importance of the present study which focused on all women in Delta State.

Makanjuola et al (2013, pp.32-37) in their study on “Breast Cancer: Knowledge and Practice of Breast Self-Examination Among Women in Rural Community of Ondo State, Nigeria,” set three objectives which included to assess women’s knowledge of breast cancer and breast self- examination, to examine the extent of practice of breast self-examination among the women

258

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State studied, as well as to determine the women’s perceptions of the causes, risk factors and prevention of breast cancer.

The above objectives, especially the first two, were in tandem with the objectives of the present study and were thus replicated in this work, which, however, focused on an entirely different study population – women in Delta State. Again, although Makanjuola et al (2013 pp.32-37) sought to know their respondents’ level of knowledge about breast cancer and breast self-examination, they were virtually silent on the source(s) of such knowledge.

On the contrary,our study saw the need to ascertain the best medium or media through which women in Delta State could receive messages on breast cancer. This is because people find certain sources of information to be more accessible, available, affordable, preferable and reachable than other sources.

For instance, in a study conducted in South Delhi, India, Somdatta and Bari-dalyne (2008 pp.149- 153) found that the television was the most common medium through which women heard about breast cancer, with 42% of the women using the medium as their main source of information, while radio was the least source of information about the disease, with only 3% of the women using the medium as a source of information about breast cancer.

But in a study conducted in Lagos State, Irurhe et al (2012 pp. 1-5) found that the first and major sources of breast cancer information for the female secondary school students on whom the research was conducted were radio and television.

Our study was therefore interested in identifying the broadcast medium or media through which women in Delta State could mostly access messages on breast cancer, in order to get relevant stakeholders to take advantage of such medium or media to educate and enlighten women on the disease.

Method

This study adopted descriptive survey research method. Nworgu (2006, p.77) notes that descriptive survey is the study which is aimed at “collecting data on and describing in a systematic manner, the characteristics, features or facts about a population.” This study adopted descriptive survey because it is often the most appropriate design when the aim of a study is to describe the characteristics of a population. Since the main aims of this study were to evaluate the influence of broadcast media public enlightenment campaigns on the prevalence of breast cancer, and to describe the attitudes of women in relation to the disease, descriptive survey was considered most suitable. The researcher used questionnaire and in-depth interview in the study.

All the women in Delta State from age 15 and above constituted the population of this study. The total population of females in Delta State, based on the 2006 population census, is 2,043,136. Using the 3.2% annual growth rate, a projection based on the above 2006 census figure would give 2,981,629. To arrive at this figure, the following formula was used:

259

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

푟 푛 푝 (1 + ) 100

Where: p = principal/first annual population r = rate n = time/year 3.2 12 2043136 (1 + ) 100 2043136(1 + 0.032)12 2043136(1.032)12 2043136 푥1.4593396 = 2,981,629

Women were considered most suitable for this study because they are the people that are mostly affected by breast cancer. Women are usually the target of media campaigns aimed at creating awareness on breast cancer. It therefore became imperative to study them with a view to finding out the effectiveness of these media campaigns.

Sample size

The calculation for the sample size of this study was done in two segments.

Segment I

The researcher sought to work out a manageable and representative sample due to the large size of the population (2,981,629). The Australian Calculator as provided by the National Statistical Service (NSS) was used. The confidence level was 95%, a precision level of 0.05, and estimated variance of 5%, were used. The calculation yielded a sample size of 385.

The NSS states that the Australian calculator allows one to calculate the required sample size, standard error, selective standard error and confidence interval, proportion estimate using just one of these criteria as an input (para.2). From the calculation, 385 was given as the sample size.

Nevertheless, since there is no assurance of a 100 percent response rate, NSS (2012, para 8) notes that the number of individuals or groups that will not respond to the approved sample size need to be taken into account. In order to come up with accurate figure, over-sampling is then employed to make up for unreturned copies and those that may have been lost in the administration process. Because the researcher and his assistants administered the copies of questionnaire and collected them immediately from the respondents, a return rate of 95 percent was adopted. The calculation is presented below:

푚푖푛푖푚푢푛푠푎푚푝푙푒푠푖푧푒 푛 = ×100 2 푒푥푝푒푐푡푒푑푟푒푠푝표푛푠푒푟푎푡푒 Where expected response rate = 95% 푛2= Adjusted sample size for non-response rate Where Minimum sample size = 385 385 × 100 = 405 95

260

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State

The sample size for the study was 405 respondents.

Segment II Here, the study adopted the purposive sampling technique for the interview (which complemented the questionnaire in meeting the fourth objective of this study). This is because interview usually involves a small group of people and requires adequate response. A sample of twelve interviewees was used for the interview section. Four interviewees (made up of two health workers and two women, who are not health workers) were selected from each of the three senatorial districts of the state. These categories of respondents were chosen because of the nature of the survey in question. The health workers handle health problems such as the one involved in this study. The women, on the other hand, are the affected category of people who go to health practitioners to seek solution to their health problems. Health workers are also very much concerned with enlightenment campaigns against diseases. Sampling technique The researcher adopted purposive sampling to select the headquarters of each of the 25 Local Government Areas as well as locations and households for the distribution of copies of the questionnaire. The headquarters of the Local Government Areas were selected for the study because such headquarters were urban in nature and therefore had residents drawn from other communities within the Local Government Areas. What is more, women who had the capacity to interpret the questionnaire could be easily found in such selected areas. Copies of the questionnaire were administered to only the respondents who could read and interpret the questionnaire in their residential houses. The questionnaire was administered personally by the researcher and his assistants and retrieved the same day to avoid cases of missing copies. In all, 405 copies of questionnaire were distributed. Out of the number, 20 Local Government Areas got 16 copies each while the remaining five Local Government Areas got 17 copies each. The Local Government Areas in the latter category got 17 copies each because they have the largest female population in the state. The Local Government Areas were Burutu, Isoko South, Warri South, Ika North-East and Ika South Local Government Areas. Analysis Frequency tables and percentages were used in the presentation and analysis of the data gathered with the questionnaire, while the interview data were analyzed quantitatively. A total of 405 copies of the questionnaire were distributed to randomly selected participants in the 25 local government areas of Delta State. The total number of copies of the questionnaire returned and found usable for analysis was 401, representing 99.01% return rate. Since accommodation for contingencies such as non-response or recording error was estimated, this response rate was considered appreciable for the goals of the study.

Demographic characteristics of respondents

All the respondents were females, representing 100%. In the age distribution of the respondents, those who were within the age range of 20-24 had the highest number, which was 210 (52.4%); those within the age group of 25-29 were 96 (23.9%); those who were 30 years of age and above were 77 (19.2%); while those within the ages of 15-19 were 18, representing 4.5%. 298 (74.3%) of the respondents were single while 103 (25.7%) were married. 272 (67.8%) of the respondents had first degree. Others had the following educational qualifications: SSCE 36 (9.0%), HND 55

261

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

(13.7%) and higher degrees 38 (9.5%). 400 (99.8%) of the respondents were Christians while only 1 (0.2%) was a Muslim.

Psychographic data

The psychographic data gathered with the questionnaire are presented as follows.

Table 1. The respondents’ psychographic data Item Variable Frequency Percent Awareness of Breast Cancer No 1 0.2 Yes 400 99.8 Total 401 100 Respondents’ Source of Information Broadcast Media 349 87.0 about Breast Cancer Friends 31 7.7 Family Relations 18 4.5 Others 3 0.7 Total 401 100 Information Regarding How Long 1-2 Years 17 4.2 Respondents Have Been Aware of Breast 3-5 Years 56 14.0 Cancer 6-8 Years 134 33.4 9-11 Years 142 35.4 12 Years and above 52 13.0 Total 401 100 Degree of Breast Cancer Awareness by Not at All 6 1.5 Respondents Low 42 10.5 Moderate 88 21.9 High 265 66.1 Total 401 100 Broadcast Media through Which Radio 242 60.3 Respondents Mostly Access Information Television 159 39.7 on Breast Cancer Total 401 100 Respondents’ Views on the More Radio 113 28.2 Effective Broadcast Medium for Television 288 71.8 Disseminating Information on Breast Total 401 100 Cancer Respondents’ Preferred Broadcast Radio 104 25.9 Medium for Receiving Information on Television 297 74.1 Breast Cancer Total 401 100 Major Reason for Medium Preference Easy Accessibility 117 29.2 Moderate Cost 28 7.0 Audio-Visual Advantage Total 256 63.8 401 100 Less Effective Medium for Disseminating Radio 359 89.5 Information on Breast Cancer Television 42 10.5 Total 401 100 Broadcast Media Enlightenment Yes 398 99.3 Campaign Influence on Respondents’ No 3 0.7 Preventive Actions against Breast Cancer Total 401 100 Extent of Broadcast Media Influence on Low Extent 24 6.0 Respondents Moderate Extent 97 24.2 Great Extent 280 69.8 Total 401 100

262

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State

Respondents’ Action Based on Broadcast Breast Self-Examination Media Influence Mammography 291 72.6 Clinical Breast 72 18 Examination Others 36 9 Total 2 0.5 401 100 Whether There Were Factors Impeding Yes 357 89 Women’s Access to Broadcast Media No 44 11 Messages about Breast Cancer in Delta Total 401 100 State Factors Hindering Respondents’ Access Illiteracy Barrier 46 11.5 to Broadcast Messages on Breast Cancer High Cost 87 21.7 Poor/Low Broadcast Media Publicity on Breast 176 43.9 Cancer Low Media Audience 92 22.9 Reach 401 100

Discussion of Findings

As evident in the Table on the psychographic data above, 99.8% of the respondents were aware of breast cancer while only 0.2% of the respondents were not. By implication, therefore, majority of the women in Delta State are aware of breast cancer. This finding is in tandem with the findings in the study carried out by Sule (2011) in Warri, Delta State, in which he found that “there was an awareness of breast cancer in 96.1% of the women.”

Equally worthy of note in our study is that the women’s high awareness was traceable to the broadcast media, through which 87% of the respondents said they became aware of breast cancer. On the contrary, only 7.7%, 4.5% and 0.7% of the respondents indicated that they got to know about breast cancer from friends, family relations and other sources respectively. In the same vein, as can be seen in the same Table 1, in response to the question that sought the respondents’ self- assessment of their level of awareness of breast cancer, 66.1% of them said their level of awareness was ‘high,’ while 21.9% indicated that their level of awareness was ‘moderate’. Respondents who said their level of awareness was low were 10.5%. Only 1.5% of the respondents said they had no knowledge of breast cancer. It can therefore be concluded that the majority of women in Delta State are very much aware of breast cancer as a disease.

The study sought to find out the broadcast medium through which women in Delta State could mostly access messages on breast cancer. The results in the above table indicate that 60.3% of the respondents mainly accessed messages on the disease through radio. Respondents who accessed information on breast cancer on the television were 39.7%. The results revealed that women in Delta State mostly access information on breast cancer through radio. Some, however, access such information on the television.

This is contrary to the results of the study conducted in South Delhi, India, by Somdatta and Baridalyne (2008, p.152), in which they found that the television was the most common medium through which women heard about breast cancer, with 42% of the women using the medium as their main source of information, while radio was the least source of information about the disease, with only 3% of the women using the medium as a source of information about breast cancer.

263

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

However, the findings of our study somewhat corroborates the study by Irurhe et al (2012) in Lagos State, Nigeria, in which it was found that the first and major sources of breast cancer information for the female secondary school students on whom the research was conducted were radio and television.

It deserves mentioning in our study that while majority of the respondents indicated that they usually accessed breast cancer information mainly on radio, majority of the respondents (71.8%), however, indicated that television was a more effective medium for dissemination information on breast cancer. 74.1% 0f the respondents added that they preferred the television for receiving such information. The psychographic table further reveals that the audio-visual advantage the television has over radio was the reason the respondents (63.8%) preferred the medium. Obviously for the same reason, 89.5% of the respondents indicated that radio was not as effective as television in the dissemination of messages about breast cancer.

It can be concluded, therefore, that while at the time of this study, radio was the first and major medium through which women in Delta State got access to messages on breast cancer, majority of the women, however, wished television was their major source of information, viewing the medium as a more effective and preferable medium, compared to radio, for the dissemination of breast cancer enlightenment messages. As for the extent to which broadcast media enlightenment messages had prompted women in Delta State to engage in such preventive strategies as breast self-examination, mammography and clinical breast examination, while 69.8% of the respondents affirmed that broadcast media information on breast cancer influenced them to a ‘great extent’ (with 99.3% of the respondents admitting that broadcast media enlightenment messages influenced them to engage in preventive measures against breast cancer), the overwhelming majority of the respondents (72.6%) clearly indicated that the particular preventive measure such enlightenment messages had influenced them to engage in was breast self-examination. The respondents who indicated mammography were 18% while those who indicated clinical breast examination were 9%. Only 0.5% of the respondents indicated ‘others’. By implication, therefore, women in Delta State mainly practise breast self-examination as a preventive measure against breast cancer, and such a practice is attributable to radio and television enlightenment campaigns on breast cancer. This is in line with the research findings of Sule (2011 p. 29) in a study conducted on out-patient women at the Central Hospital, Warri, Delta State, in which it was found that “a monthly self breast examination had been done in 83.3% of self-breast examination practitioners.” Also, Kayode, et al (2005), as cited in Makanjuola (2013 p.33) assert that despite the advent of modern screening methods, more than 90% of cases of cancers of the breast are detected by women themselves, stressing the importance of breast self-examination.

What is more, that the women’s engagement in breast self-examination in particular, and other preventive measures in general was attributable to the broadcast media enlightenment campaigns on breast cancer, which further justifies the relevance of the agenda-setting theory to this study. Explaining the theory, Asemah (2001 p.176) notes that it “holds that most of the pictures we store in our minds, most of the things we think or worry about, most of the issues we discuss, are based on what we read, listened to or watched in different mass media.”

The table on psychographic data clearly shows that the overwhelming majority of the respondents (89.0%) averred that there areindeed factors hindering their access to broadcast media messages about breast cancer, specifically pointing out the factors serving as impediments to women’s

264

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State access to broadcast media messages about breast cancer, with 43.9% of the respondents citingpoor or low media publicity on the disease as the worst factor, while 22.9% indicated ‘low media audience reach’. The least of the hindrances was the barrier of illiteracy (11.5%).

However, the qualitative data gathered from interviews (which were specifically aimed at complementing the questionnaire in meeting the fourth objective of this study) were somewhat at variance with the quantitative data gathered with the questionnaire for the same objective. Although all the interviewees stated that there were a number of factors hindering women’s access to media messages on breast cancer, majority of them maintained that illiteracy was the greatest barrier to women’s access to media messages on the disease, followed by poor media publicity on the disease.The respondents, however, cited some other ‘less serious’ factors such as high cost of television set, low media audience reach, poor radio and television signals, misconceptions about breast cancer as well as apathy towards media enlightenment messages on health issues, including breast cancer.

From the above quantitative and qualitative analyses, it can be safely concluded that there are factors impeding women’s access to media enlightenment campaigns on breast cancer. However, given that in the quantitative analysis, poor media publicity was cited as the greatest barrier to women’s access to media messages on breast cancer, with illiteracy as the least factor in the quantitative analysis; and given that in the qualitative analysis, illiteracy was considered the greatest barrier, closely followed by poor media publicity on the disease, it can be confidently concluded that poor media publicity on breast cancer and illiteracy among women are the two greatest factors impeding women’s access to media enlightenment campaigns on breast cancer in Delta State.

Conclusion

As earlier pointed out, breast cancer is a major cause of cancer mortality among women globally. It is believed that raising public awareness of the disease is a key strategy towards reducing its prevalence. Interestingly, the result of this study has indicated that awareness of breast cancer among women in Delta State is quite high. All the respondents except one said they were aware of breast cancer. Also, majority of the respondents said they were influenced by broadcast media enlightenment campaigns to take actions to prevent breast cancer. By implication, therefore, the influence of broadcast media enlightenment campaigns on the prevalence of breast cancer among women in Delta State is high.

However, the claim by many of the women that they were ‘moderately aware’ of the disease is a call for the creation of more enlightenment programmes by the media. The problems of poor media publicity on the disease and illiteracy need to be addressed. In view of the seriousness of the disease, it should be featured regularly in the media. Also, that radio is inexpensive and most members of the public get information mainly through the medium - as has been found in this study - is a fact that should be exploited by the media and other stakeholders to aggressively provide information on various health issues, not least breast cancer.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations were made.

265

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

1. The media and other relevant stakeholders should do more in creating awareness in a manner that will give women comprehensive and thorough knowledge of the prevalence of the disease, especially as some of the women studied indicated that they were ‘moderately aware’ of the disease.

2. Most information on breast cancer should be disseminated to members of the public, particularly in Delta State, through radio, since it is the primary medium for accessing information, as has been found in this study.

3. Government should strive to alleviate poverty, so as to empower more people to afford television sets, otherwise adjudged as the most effective and preferred medium for accessing information on breast cancer because of its audio-visual advantage.

4. Enlightenment messages should be disseminated both in English and local languages to break the barrier of illiteracy and reach as many members of the public as possible.

5. Ant-breast cancer campaigners, in collaboration with the broadcast media, should stress the need for women to visit the hospital for mammography and clinical breast examination which have somewhat been relegated, as has been found in this study.

6. Broadcast media houses should give more airtime to enlightenment campaigns on breast cancer. References Adebayo, B. (2015, February 4). Two million Nigerians have cancer-experts. ThePunch. Retrieved from www.punchng.comon Sept.14, 2018. Adetifa, F.A. & Ojikutu, R.K. (2009). Prevalence and trends in breast cancer in Lagos State, Nigeria. African Research Review. Retrieved from www.afrrevjo.comon Aug.28, 2018. Asemah, E.S. (2011). Selected mass media themes. Jos, Nig: Jos University Press. Burke, E. (2013). The health belief model. Retrieved from https://www.iccwa.org.au/useruploads/files/soyf/2013_resources_videos/the_health_bel ief_model.pdfevan_burke.pdf. Daramola, I. (2001).Introduction to mass communication. Lagos, Nigeria: Rothan Press. Irurhe, N.K., Raji, O.A., Olowoyeye, A.O., Arogundade, R.A., Soyebi, K. O., Ibitoye, A. Z., Abonyi, L.C, & Eniyandunni, F.J. (2012). Knowledge and awareness of breast cancer among female secondary school students in Nigeria. Academic Journal of Cancer Research, 5 (1), 1-5. Lizewski, L. (2010). The health belief model. Retrieved from http://awrencelizewski. com/attachment/file/HBM.pdf Makanjuola, O.J., Amoo, P.O., Ajibade, B.L., & Makinde, O.T. (2013). Breast cancer: Knowledge and practice of breast self-examination among women in rural community of Ondo State, Nigeria. Journal of Pharmacy and Biological Sciences 9(1) 32-37. National Cancer Institute (2015).Breast cancer prevention. Retrieved from www.cancer.gov/comr.

266

Influence of Broadcast Media Enlightenment Campaigns on Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Women in Delta State

National Population Commission. (2006).2006 Population and HOUSING Census. From http://www.population.gov.ng/ Nelson, O. (2013). Mass media strategies for creating awareness of breast cancer. Public Knowledge Journal. Retrieved fromwww.Pdfcrowd.com. Nworgu. B.G. (2006).Educational research: Basic issues & methodology Nsukka: University Trust Publishers. Ogun first lady leads cancer awareness campaign in Abeokuta. (2016, Oct. 4). Retrieved from www.channels tv.com on Apr. 10, 2019. Okoghenun, J. (2014). Akunyili and prominent Nigerians felled by cancer. The Guardian. Retrieved from barasolutions.com/MainGuardian/Saturday. Omerigwe, E.G. (2012). The influence of breast cancer campaigns on knowledge, attitude and practice among women in Benue State. (Unpublished Master’s Thesis).University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria. Ogundoyin, O. S. and Soola, E. O. (2014). Trends in methodological and theoretical approaches to interpersonal health communication research. Journal of Communication and Media Research, 6 (2) 163-174. Somdatta, P. and Baridalyne, N. (2008). Awareness of breast cancer in women of an urban resettlement colony. Indian Journal of Cancer, 45 (4) 149-153. Sule, E. A. (2011). Breast cancer awareness and breast examination practices among women in a Niger Delta hospital. Continental J. Medical Research. 5(1), 27-31. Wogu, J. O. (2008). Introduction to mass communication theories. Nsukka, Nig.: The University of Nigeria Press. World Health Organization (2015). WHO: Breast cancer prevention and control Retrieved fromwww.WHO.int/en

267

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Assessment of Cybercrimes and control measures and impact on Nigeria.

Ejirefe Influence

Institute of Governance and Development Studies Nasarawa State University, Keffi.

Abstract

This paper looks at the relationship between the dangerous manifestations of cybercrimes and control measures in Nigeria. It relies absolutely on qualitative method via secondary data. It states that cybercrimes likeATM fraud and other fraudulent electronic transactions, identity theft, espionage, cyber bullying, spamming, phishing, copy write infringement or theft of intellectual property, computer virus and defacing of websites in Nigeria gives impression that the computer systems and its components encourages cybercrimes. It however argued that, in spite of the fraudulent practices and losses caused by the unauthorised users of the computer systems and it components, the technology has more positive impact. The paper also, highlights the causes and impact of cybercrimes as well as assessed the existing control measures in Nigeria. It also, noted that the control measures adopted in Nigeria so far are inadequate but hope was finally rekindled with the cyber Act, 2015 but implementation is weak. Nevertheless, it concluded that cybercrimes have become endemic and permanent eradication is impossible but can be reduced. The paper therefore, recommends additional and more effective control measures for the control of cybercrimes in Nigeria.

Keywords: Control measures, Cybercrimes, Cyber-Criminals, Cyber Security, Nigeria and Victims.

Introduction

The existence of Information and Communication Technology in Nigeria is a welcome development but some few bad eggs called the ‘Yahoo boys’ i.e internet fraudsters have turned the technology into a device for fraudulent practices. They are damaging the reputation of the country. Cybercrimes is real, the earlier we discourage it, the better for all Nigerians. Apparently, the love for money and the lure for it by the criminal minded lazy youths and adults folks have eroded their sense of dignity and societal values. It is disheartening that instead of directing their thinking to productive ventures, they deliberately channelled it to cybercrimes.

Distance use to be a barrier till the internet helped us to bridge the gap. The use of internet has truly made the world a global village. This technology is a good thing that everybody wants to identify with to simplify life, ease of doing business and progress but has however brought about increased world-wide apprehension.

Methodology

This paper relies absolutely on qualitative method via secondary data. The secondary data used include, internet sources such as online academic journals and online newspaper articles, act/legislation, physical journal and newspaper, conference paper and books.

268

Assessment of Cybercrimes and control measures and impact on Nigeria.

Clarification of Concepts

There are some concepts which are very important to the understanding of this paper. It is important they are properly clarified. Thus: (i) Control Measures: These are the various strategies or devices put in place toidentify, monitor, and arrest and curtail the menace of cybercrimes. Instrument like legislations and the use of law enforcement agencies are the major control measures suggested in this paper. (ii) Cybercrimes: There is no generally agreed definition of what constitute cybercrimes among experts. Cybercrimes also known as electronic crimes, internet crimes or computer crimes is viewed from different perspectives. Perhaps, one area of agreement among experts is that, it is a crime committed with the use of computer. For example, (Monisoye (2007) defined cybercrimes as unlawful acts wherein the computer is either a tool or a target or both. It can also be described as unlawful activity in which computer or computing devices such as smart phones, tablets, Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs), etc. which are stand alone or a part of a network are used as a tool or/and target of criminal activity (Jeetendra, 2017). Williams (2013) asserts that, cybercrimes are any crimes that involve a computer and a network. In some cases, the computer may have been the target of the crime.

(iii) Cyber Criminals: Cyber criminals also known as Internet fraudsters or Yahoo boys are perpetrators of cybercrimes, either for self-aggrandisement or greed, retaliation or adventure. (iv) Cyber Security: Cyber security is a unique aspect of security. Nonetheless, whether data or information can be very sensitive and vital to the individual, country, organisations and businesses. The proliferation and sophistication of cyber-attacks brought about the need for cyber security. Nate (2019) declares that, cyber security is the body of technologies, processes, and practices designed to protect networks, devices, programs, and data from attack, damage, or unauthorized access. In fact, the core functionality of cyber security involves protecting information and systems from major cyber threats. Techopedia (n.d) also, defined cyber Security as the preventive methods used to protect information from being stolen, compromised or attacked. The protection of the computer systems which include the hardware, software or information from theft and destruction by anyone are part of the control measures assessed by this paper. (v) Victims: Victims in this paper refers to the targets or people who suffer from the negative activities of the perpetrators of cybercrimes.

Theoretical Framework

The Routine Activity Theory is used for the analysis of this paper because of its relevance to the Nigeria cybercrime situation. The Routine Activities theory presents a clear-cut explanation of why crimes occur. It states that, crime occurs in the presence of three key elements which are a suitable target, lack of a suitable guardian, and a likely motivated offender.The theory suggest that, if all three elements are available somewhere, there is the tendency for crime increase and conversely, if one of these elements is absent, then there is chances for crime decrease (Cohen & Felson, Felson & Clarke, as cited in Urgun & Daglar, 2016). Nwosu (2016) believes that, the involvement of Nigerian youth in cybercrime can best be situated in the

269

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Routine Activity Theory - a sub-field of crime opportunity theory that focuses on situations of crimes. The basic assumption of the theory is that in order for crime to occur, victims and perpetrator of the crime must meet in a certain place and time where there is the absence of an effective or suitable guardian. The implication is that unemployment and poverty causes cybercrimes but not the only causes of criminal activity. It also suggests that reducing criminal opportunities help in reducing the occurrence of crime.

Meier and Meithe (as cited in Nwosu, 2016) confirmed that, the Crime Opportunity Theory suggests that offenders make rational choices by choosing targets that offer a high reward with little effort and risk. Therefore, those who commit crime as a result of their deviation from norms also look for opportunities that make the crime beneficial to them. The theory is therefore based on the simple idea that people look for opportunity, whether through legitimate means or otherwise, to gain what they desire. The origin of this theory lies in the presumption that in every society, there is always the concept of 'norms' and that of 'deviance' and when a standard lifestyle established by a society becomes unachievable; people become deviant in attempts to achieve that standard in order to continue to be perceived as being within the realm of norm.

Clearly, the occurrence of a crime depends on two things: the presence of at least one motivated offender who is ready or willing to engage in a crime, and the conditions of the environment in which that offender is situated, to wit, opportunities for crime. All crimes therefore require opportunity but not every opportunity is followed by a crime. Similarly, while a motivated offender is necessary for the commission of a crime, it is not necessarily enough. Many jobless youths in Nigeria are motivated offenders who converge in time and space with innocent victims that they prey upon. The victim can be a Nigerian or foreigner, provided they are on the web at the time of communication. Sadly, the advent of cell phones, laptops, i-pads, and several other hand-held electronic communication devices has made cybercrimes very cumbersome for police and other law enforcement agents to combat.

Even though, the Routine Activities Theory provides a simple and relevant insight into some of the cause cybercrimes in Nigeria, it also has some weaknesses. For example, Brunet (as cited in Urgun and Daglar, 2016) criticised the Routine Activities Theory due to the fact that most studies which test the theory are post hoc and descriptive. At this stage in its development, the theory is limited in its predictive capacity. Degamo (as in Urgun & Daglar, 2016) also believes the theory is plagued with theoretical discrepancies. Again, it merely assesses one crime or crime density in a location instead of looking at a string of inter- correlated crimes. Furthermore, despite the Routine Activities Theory describes the transition from place to network, it fails to address the issue of divergence in time between victims and perpetrators in cyberspace. Even though the interactions between the victims and the perpetrators in physical space happen in real time, it is not always the true situation with cybercrimes.

History and challenges of cybercrimes in Nigeria

The history of cybercrimes in Nigeria started in the form of Advance Fee Fraud majorly perpetrated by unemployed youth. The perpetrators thrive on tricks. The scammer trickily mail out letters through couriers or fax machine informing potential victims in another country that he successfully starched away huge sum of money amounting to millions of dollars via corrupt means or over invoicing of government contract or other means, that he is looking for a genuine person (potential victim) who is willing to make his or her account available for the money to be deposited and would handsomely reward the potential victim for helping to get the money out. At the initial stage, it would look as if the scammer is harmless till he achieves his target. As time went by, the potential victim would receive another mail that requires him or her to invest a small amount of money as processing fees; once the potential victim agree and send the money, that small amount turns out to be the initial loss or just enough for the jobless scammer. Then, scammers were few

270

Assessment of Cybercrimes and control measures and impact on Nigeria. but they are more these days and cybercrimes are more or less a huge industry in Nigeria. Punch (2019) asserts that, in Nigeria, the three-pronged introduction of the Internet, computers and the mobile phones gave rise to massive outbreak of cybercrimes.

In today Nigeria, the perpetrators of cybercrimes are highly sophisticated in their fraudulent practices more than ever before while their victims seem handicapped in protecting themselves and their organisations. PricewaterhouseCoopers (2016) assert in their survey that organisations rank cybercrime as the second most reported type of economic crime up from fourth place. In the survey, 32% of organisation admits they had been a victim of cybercrime and 34% expected to be a victim in the next 2 years. Only 37 had a plan to respond to the incidents of cybercrime. The Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC) reveals that Nigeria currently ranked third globally in cybercrime behind UK and US (NCC, 2017).

The internet increases the speed of communication. It has also made business transactions easy, enhances friendship, increases pain and loss. In Nigeria, it has brought about ATM fraud and fraudulent electronic transactions, internet time theft, theft of computer systems or parts, physically damaging a computer, identity theft, espionage, cyber bullying, spamming, phishing, copyright infringement or theft of intellectual property, computer virus and defacing of websites. Mosuro (2017) confirmed that in March, 2015 that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) website was defaced as well as that of the Lagos State Government in December, 2015. Adedapo (2014) reveals that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) estimated that about N40 billion was lost by Nigerian banks to cybercrimes in recent times. Monguno (as cited in Nwosu, 2016) argued that, no organisation or country can perform optimally under an atmosphere of fear and insecurity. Uncertainties and raised anxieties have therefore strained both the Nigerian economy and society. As at the second quarter of 2016, it was estimated that 88% of the total cybercrimes in Nigeria comes from card and mobile banking frauds, with fraudulent transfers accounting for 8% while internal fraud stood at 4%. Indeed, global tracking of cyber-attacks indicate that Nigeria is among countries with high cases of software piracy, intellectual property theft, and melware attacks. Nigeria is losing about N127 billion, which is 0.8% of the country’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP), to cybercrime yearly (Shittu, 2016). This situation is a big challenge to the numerous advantages and the huge opportunities that internet brings, while harmonising and managing its associated risks.

Most individuals and organisations that make use of the internet globally have become victims of cybercrimes which affects the overall performance of businesses. These catalogues of fraudulent practices and losses committed via the computer and its components give the impression that the computer system and its components encourage fraudulent practices (cybercrimes). Nevertheless, this paper believes that the cyber space is good and big enough for everyone to operate even though the unauthorised users play it dirty on the cyberspace. This paper therefore, is set out to highlight the causes of cybercrime, impact and assessment of the existing control measures in Nigeria; and then suggest more effective control measures.

Causes of Cybercrimes in Nigeria

Cybercrimes are universal crimes that know no boundaries. The cyber criminals are everywhere looking for opportunity and easy ways to make money on rich individuals, organisations and government. In spite of the many control measures put in place, they continue to increase in

271

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 numbers and more sophisticated in their operations. This may be attributed to the faceless nature of the criminals and crimes.

Krazytech (2017) asserts that the vulnerability of computers gives hackers easy access to steal sensitive information. Hackers can steal access codes, relina images, etc that can fool biometric systems easily and bypass firewalls can be utilized to get past many security systems. Again, the anonymous nature of cyber criminals makes it difficult to catch them and when you do, sometimes evidence related to the crime is easily destroyed. This has become a very common and obvious problem which paralyzes the system behind the investigation of cybercrimes. Krazytech (2017) asserts further that the comparatively small space of the computer has the unique characteristics of storing data in a very small space and this makes it a lot easier for cyber criminals to steal data from any other storage and use it for own profit. Again, the computer runs operating systems and these operating systems are programmed millions of codes. The human mind is imperfect, so they can do mistakes at any stage. The cyber criminals take advantage of these gaps. Moreover, negligence is a characteristic of human conduct. So, there may be a possibility that protecting the computer system we may make any negligence which provides cyber criminals the access and control over a computer system.

Usifo (2017) declares that greed for money, corruption, peer pressure; the urge to make it big by any means possible as well as joblessness is a cause of cybercrimes in Nigeria. Oladeide (2018) asserts that the National Bureau of Statistics said the Nigeria’s unemployment rate increase from 18.8% in the third quarter of 2017 to 23.1% in the third quarter of 2018. Joblessness causes poverty and crime. No wonder that many of these jobless citizens find solace in cybercrimes.

Assessment of Existing Control Measures of Cybercrimes in Nigeria

Perpetrators of cybercrimes are not spirit but human beings. The anonymous nature of the perpetrators is big challenge and tracing them requires a high degree of computer knowledge. However, the following are assessment of some of the existing control measures used by individuals, public and private organisations: (i) Some victims of cybercrimes report to the police. Unfortunately, not every police man has what it takes to arrest and curtail cybercrimes. (ii) Some security agents with good computer knowledge inspect cybercafé from time to time as possible way of catching the cyber thieves in the act. Through such checks some of the yahoo boys have been caught. (iii) Some individuals and organisations keep their computers away from unauthorised users during and at the close of work, but then, there are reported cases of insider threat perpetrated by disgruntled employees. (iv) As a defence mechanism, some individuals and organisations install security software like firewall, anti-virus and some other powerful monitoring system as a first line of defence. This is good, yet some unauthorised users still find a way to corrupt the system with virus. (v) Some secure their data by using encryption for their most sensitive files. As said, these control measures are good but not complete safeguard for all cases. An unauthorised user can be invisible or hacker with a high degree of computer knowledge does not need the identity of anyone before robbing or infecting a computer with a virus.

272

Assessment of Cybercrimes and control measures and impact on Nigeria.

Legislation on cybercrimes in Nigeria

Before the passing of the Cybercrime Act, 2015, there was no definite and reliable legislation designed to address the threat of cybercrime in Nigeria. This gap led to the proliferation of cybercriminals popularly known as 'Yahoo boys'. The following are the most common of these laws:

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Act (2004): The Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) Actis a Nigerian law enforcement agency charged with the responsibility of preventing, investigating, prosecuting, and penalizing economic and financial crimes and enforcement of other laws and regulations relating to economic and financial crimes. Economic Crime as defined by Section 46 of the EFCC Act covers:

“ the non-violent criminal and illicit activity committed with the objective of earning wealth illegally either individually, or in a group or organized manner, thereby violating legislation governing the economic activities of government and its administration to include any form of fraud, narcotic drug trafficking, money laundering, embezzlement, bribery, looting, and anyform of corrupt malpractices, illegal arms deal, smuggling, human trafficking, child labour, oil bunkering, illegal mining, tax evasion, foreign exchange malpractices including counterfeiting of currency, theft of intellectual property and policy, open market abuse, dumping of toxic wastes, and prohibited goods, etc.” (www.nassnig.org/document/download/5762).

Though the Act did not specially mention the term 'cybercrime' but terms like 'fraud', 'money laundering', 'embezzlement' and ‘any form of corrupt practices’,’ foreign exchange malpractices', etc. It obviously covers cybercrimes and so the offence can properly be brought within, the EFCC Act, 2004.

The Criminal Code Cap. C 38 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria (2004) is a legislation meant to punish criminal acts in Southern Nigeria while the Penal Code (1959) is meant to punish criminal acts in the Northern states of the country. Under the Criminal Code, cybercrime like 'advance fee fraud' is a form of 'false pretence' as contemplated by Section 418 while a perpetrated internet scam is situated within Section 419 which describes activities which constitute false pretences. For example, Section 418 which defines the term false pretence states that:

“Any representation made by words, writing, or conduct, of a matter of fact, either past or present, which representation is false in fact, and which the person making it knows to be false or does not believe to be true is a false pretence.” (Www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/laws/en/ng/ngo25en.pdf.).

On the other hand, Section 419 of the Criminal Code describes what amounts to obtaining goods by false pretences. It states that:

Any person who by any false pretence, and with intent to defraud, obtains from any other person anything capable of being stolen, or induces any other person to deliver to any person anything capable of being stolen, is guilty of a felony, and is liable to imprisonment for three years. If the thing is of the value of one thousand Naira or upwards. He is liable to imprisonment for seven years. It is immaterial that the thing is obtained or its delivery

273

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

is induced through the medium of a contract induced by the false pretence (Www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/laws/en/ng/ngo25en.pdf.).

Obviously, these laws cannot adequately address most cybercrimes. For example, Section 419, advance fee fraud is a felony and a suspect could not be arrested without a warrant unless found guilty in a competent court of law or arrested while committing the offence. Unfortunately, cybercrimes are perpetrated from personal computers and in private which sometimes makes it difficult for the perpetrators of cybercrimes to be caught. Therefore, the criminal code is not enough to deter cyber criminals.

Also, the Advance Fee Fraud and other Related Offences Act (2006) is an act of the National Assembly that forbids and penalises certain crimes relating to Advance Fee Fraud and other fraud related crimes. Section 1 and 2 of the Act clearly stood against any kind of false pretence and with the intention to defraud or obtain from any person in Nigeria or abroad to confer a benefit on him or on any other person has committed an offence under this Act and as such is liable on conviction to imprisonment for a term of not more than 20 years and not less than 7 years without the option of fine. Waziri (2005) states that, once an unsuspecting or gullible foreigner or company responds to the scam, an advance fee are demanded in the form of local taxes such as the National Economic Recovery Fund (NERFUND), contract tax, and various legal charges. Sometimes the victim is invited to Nigeria to sign (fake) contract papers. Once the initial payment is made the deal is concluded, and the victim loses his money.

These laws lacks uniformity and therefore amount to conflict and confusion among officers of the police, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Independent Corrupt Practices and related offences Commission, etc in terms of implementation.

The Cybercrime Act (2015) brought about confidence and assurance in the fight against cybercrime. The objectives of the Act as provided for in Section 1 are: to provide an effective and unified legal, regulatory, and institutional framework for the prohibition, prevention, detection, prosecution and punishment of cybercrimes in Nigeria; ensure the protection of critical national information infrastructure; and promote cyber security and the protection of computer systems and networks, electronic communications, data and computer programs, as well as intellectual property and privacy rights.

The Act contains 59 sections and is a very vital breakthrough in the history of Nigerian legislation owing to its focus on the development of the emerging online financial and Information and Communication Technology sectors in the country. By virtue of its Section 22, the law permits for the interception of electronic communication by way of a court order by a Judge, where there are reasonable grounds to suspect that the content of any electronic communication is reasonably required for the purposes of a criminal investigation or proceedings.

Also, this inspired legislation by virtue of section 3 gives the President the power to designate certain computer systems, networks, and information infrastructure vital to the national security of Nigeria or the economic and social well-being of its citizens, as constituting Critical National Information Infrastructure (CNII), and to implement procedures, guidelines, and conduct audits in furtherance of that. Examples of systems which could be designated as such include transport, communication, banking, etc.

274

Assessment of Cybercrimes and control measures and impact on Nigeria.

Above all, this Act has obvious constitutional disposition given its penchant for the protection of the basic constitutional rights of citizens while targeting cybercriminals. The Act therefore, prohibits the distribution of racist and xenophobic material to the public through a computer system or network. It also forbids the use of threats of violence and insulting words to people based on race, religion, colour, and descent, national or ethnic origin. To further realise the need to protect the rights of citizens, this Act authorises service providers to keep all traffic data and subscriber information with utmost confidentiality to protect the individual's constitutional right to privacy, and this can only be processed, or retrieved, subject only to an order of the court of law.

The Cybercrime Act, 2015 also: (i) Recommends death sentence for an offence committed against a system or network that has been designated critical national infrastructure of Nigeria that leads to the death of an individual. (ii) By the Act, Hackers or internet fraudster if found guilty of unlawfully accessing a computer system or network, would be made to pay a fine of up to N10 million or jailed for 5 years.

(iii)Those who commit identity theft are punishable with imprisonment for a term of not less than 3 years or a fine of not less than N7 Million or both.

(iv) The offence of Child Pornography is punishable with a jail term of 10 years or a fine of not less than N20 Million or both as the situations permit. The offence institute acts like producing, procuring, distributing, and possession of child pornography.

(v) The Act also stipulates a punishment of 1-10 years and/or a fine of N2-N25 Million or both, as the case may be for the offence of Cyber-stalking and Cyber-bullying.

(i) The Act also provides a minimum of 2 years jail term or a fine of not less than N5 Million or both for cyber-squatting.

In spite of the sanctions contained in the Cybercrime Act (2015) the perpetrators of cybercrimes continue to increase. The simple reason is that, implementation of the act is weak. So, there is need for those in-charges of the implementation to be firm and active in the discharge of their duties without undermining the provisions of the act. Again, the implementation of the Cybercrime Act is domiciled in the office of the National Security Adviser and if well implemented, it will help to boost the online cashless initiative of Central Bank of Nigeria. Therefore, proper understanding of the law by the Judiciary and the Law enforcement agencies and implementation of the Act would strengthen cyber security and ensure reduction of cybercrimes in Nigeria.

Impact of Cybercrimes on Nigeria

Cybercrimes impacted on Nigeria in the following ways: (i) The fact that some Nigerians into cybercrimes has truly damage the reputation of Nigeria before the international community. Nigeria is currently ranked third in the

275

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

world behind the UK and USA. No genuine businessman or woman or country wants to do business with a fraudster in any country. (ii) Cybercrime causes financial loss to individuals and private companies, including the cloning of both private and public enterprises. Some persons have been duped via ATM cards and banks like First Bank and Zenith Bank plc. websites was cloned just to dupe innocent Nigerians and foreigners. (iii) At the individual level their privacy has been distorted. Private emails are being hacked every now and then. People receive unsolicited messages in their phones and email. Some of the cyber criminals hack into some individual phones such that they pay for calls made by the cyber criminals. Cyber bullying, cyber terrorism, etc. All these undermine morality and individual freedom. Conclusion

The history of cybercrimes in Nigeria started in the form of Advance Fee Fraud.Today, the perpetrators of cybercrimes are highly sophisticated in their fraudulent practices more than ever before while their victims seems handicapped in protecting themselves and their organisations. It is abysmal that, cybercrimes are on the increase in spite of the legislations and sanctions contained in it. The perpetrators devise means to breach security, steal money and very important information physically and online. Some of the criminals go to the extent of damaging hardware and software. Individuals, private companies, public companies are negatively affected, including Nigeria’s reputation. Some of the causes of cybercrimes range from joblessness, corruption to greed. The solution to all these is better control measures and thorough implementation.

Recommendations

The following are recommended for more effective control measures: (i) The various legislations so far has not deterred the perpetrators of cybercrimes. Youth unemployment seemed to be major precursor of cybercrimes. Therefore, government should focus more on creating jobs for the teeming unemployed youths in the country. This will assist to reduce cybercrimes. (ii) For every cybercrime there is a perpetrator. Every perpetrator has the intent to commit crime but without the opportunity a crime cannot be committed. Therefore, it is crucial to train and strengthen the capacity of law enforcement agents to ensure the opportunity to commit cybercrimes are reduced by being technologically ahead of the cybercriminals in order to curtail their excesses. (iii) Organisations should also filter properly during the process of selection, interview and recruitment of staff as well as motivate staff to dissuade them from committing cybercrimes. (iv) Management should train employees on how to detect and detract potential cyber- attacks. (v) Cyber security department should be established in our institution of higher learning and cyber security should be offered as a compulsory course at all levels to boost the knowledge of cyber security in the country.

276

Assessment of Cybercrimes and control measures and impact on Nigeria.

References

Adedapo, I. (2014). Managing online information security. The Punch, October p.10.

Advance Fee Fraud and other Related Offences Act, (2006). Retrieved from www.nigeria- law.org/Advance%20Fee%20Fraud%20and%20other%20Fraud%20Related%20offences %20Act%202006.htm.

Criminal Code Cap. 38 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 2004. Retrieved from www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/laws/en/ng/ngo25en.pdf. Cybercrimes Act, 2015. Retrieved from https://www.cert.gov.ng/file/docs/cybercrime-Prohibition-Prevention-etc-Act_2015.pdf.

Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (Establishment) Act, 2004. Retrieved from www.nassnig.org/document/download/5782.

Jeetendra, P., (2017). Introduction to cyber security. Retrieved from www.uou.ac.in/sites/default/files/sim/introduction-cybers security.pdf.

Krazytech (2017). Causes of cybercrime and preventive measures. Retrieved from https://krazytech.com.

Monisoye, O.A. (2007). Cybercrime in west africa: causes, implications and effect on the legal profession. annual conference of the Nigerian Bar Association, Ilorin. 26-31 August. P.2.

Mosuro, F., (2017). Cyber security- a matter of concern for Nigerian boards. Retrieved from www.mondaq.com.

Nate, L., (2019). What is cyber security? Definition, best practices and more.

Retrieved from https://digitalguardian.com/blog/what-is-cybersecurity..

Nigerian Communications Commission, (2017) Nigeria ranks 3rd in global internet crimes behind UK, US. Retrieved from https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/241160- nigeria-ranks-3rd-global-internet-crimes-behing-uk-u-s-ncc.html.

Nwosu, U.W., (2016). Cybercrime in Nigeria’s Receding Economy: The role of the legal system. A paper presented at the 1st International conference, organised by the School of Post- Graduate Studies in collaboration with College of Management and Social Sciences, on the theme: Investment in a receding economy, 28 November – 1st December, 2016 in Salem University Kogi State. pp. 104-117.

Oladeinde, O., (2018). Nigeria’s unemployment rate rises to 23.1%. Retrieved from https://www.premiumtimes.com/news/headlines/301896-nigeria-unemployment-rate- rises-to-23.1/-nbs.html.

Penal Code Law, 1959.PricewaterhouseCoopers, (2016). Retrieved from htt://www.eccouncil.org.

277

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Punch, (2019) Retrieved from https://punch.ng.com/youth-and-cybercrime-in-nigeria.

Shittu, A., (2016). Nigeria loses N127 to cybercrime-nsa will stop this. Retrieved from https://www.thecable.ng/shittu-nigeria-loses-n127bn-cybercrime-nsa-will-stop. Techopedia (n.d.) https://www.techopedia.com.

Urgun, U & Daglar., (2016). Examination of routne activities theory by the property crime. International Journal of Human Sciences. 13(1) 1188-1192.

Usifo, V., (2017). 12 Ways to Prevent Cybercrime and Internet Fraud in Nigeria. Retrieved from https://infoguidenigeria,com.

Waziri, F.M., (2005). Advance fee fraud, national security and the Law. Ibadan, Nigeria: BookBuilder Edition Africa.

Williams, J., (2013). What is cybercrime? Definition, types and examples. Retrieved from https://study.com/academy/lesson/what-is-cybercrime-definition-types-examples.html.

278

Impact of Women’s Ownership of Resources and Socio-Economic Development: A Case of Women in Fika Local Government Area, Yobe State, Nigeria.

Umar Saleh Baba1 and Ali Garba Kolo1

1Department of Sociology, Yobe State University, P.M.B 1144 Damaturu, Yobe State, Nigeria. [email protected] [email protected]

Abstract

Ability of women to have access and control over resources is paramount in achieving gender equality and empowerment for equitable and sustainable growth and development. However, gender inequality in distribution of resources have placed women at disadvantage relative to men. This study examines the relationship between ownership of resources and socioeconomic development. Various degrees of women’s ownership of resources have also been identified. The population of women in the study area composed of 66901 according to the 2006 National Census. The sample used in this study was 382. Stratified and simple random sampling techniques were used to select the respondents from various cluster/strata of women’s group. Data were collected through structured questionnaire. The collected data were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and Pearson Linear Regression. The result shows (41.0%) of respondents were within the age of 20-39 years, majority of women (32.2%) attained secondary education, majority of the respondents (32.9%) have only father, majority of them (32.9%) were single. The result also indicated that women access to ownership of resources include access to job in private companies (2.98%), ownership of economic and financial resources (2.92%), among others. Similarly, the study found that the elements of ownership of resources remained high while ability to manage their own business indicates low. Furthermore, findings of the study show the socioeconomic development among women in two of the elements of socioeconomic development, that is, women’s income level and women’s standard of living such as their ability to own bank accounts (2.83%), productive assets (2.38%), sleep under mosquito nets (3.02%). The study concludes that women access to ownership and control of resource had significant effect on family socioeconomic development, also recommends that all efforts to empower women should be directed towards economic empowerment such as ownership of land, houses and business activities.

Keywords: Fika, gender inequality, ownership of resources, relationship, socioeconomic development.

Introduction

Globally, women’s access to ownership and control of resources has a multiplier effect on their economic security and bargaining power, which in turn may have a strong positive outcome for the health and wellbeing of their children. Women’s ownership of resources increase the level of family budgeting and rise in women’s ability to make decision in the family (Agarwal, 1994); Pitt, Khandker and Cartwright, 2006) and Deere and Twyman, 2012). Women’s decision making capabilities is solely determined by their assets and resources ownership that have positive reflection not only on their own wellbeing, but also their children and family at large. When a woman does not have any right with regard to family resources, she becomes vulnerable, especially

279

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 when her marriage dissolves either through divorce or death of a spouse (Agarwal, 1997 and Kabeer, 1999). Household assets benefit the entire members of the family, but assets own by women are more beneficial to their children especially in the areas of their health and nutrition (Lundberg and Pollak, 1993).

In Nigeria for instance, incidence of poverty is a widespread phenomenon. It is even higher among women than men. Meanwhile, women asset ownership forms an important economic and ecological niche not only on the women in particular, but also the community at large. This is because women ownership of resources can make very laudable contributions to women’s wealth, children’s life, family and society in general especially in rural societies. Other contributions include women’s collateral to obtain loans, family good standard of living, and community easy access to social amenities. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to contribute to ongoing discourse on the need for both government, stakeholders and community leaders to support and encourage women’s ownership and access to resources and assets for economic development.

Need for Women’s Ownership of Resources

It has been revealed that access to resources such as financial resources improves women’s lives expectancy (Chant, 2013, Das and Pulla, 2014 and Moghadam, 2003). Few decades ago, one of the well-known ways of including women into the formal economy was by giving microcredit loans to less privileged women in the society (Das and Pulla, 2014 and Haase, 2011).The ownership, access and control over assets such as livestock can empower women to participate better in decision-making processes both at family and community levels as a resource such as livestock isa key asset for people especially in rural communities (FAO, 2011). It has been demonstrated that if women have access and control over resources, as well as actively participate in programmes designed for them, they can be said to be economically empowered, but lower levels of equality in control, access and participation indicate lack of empowerment for them (March et al, 1999). Despite women’s role in taking care of the resources such as livestock particularly in rural area, they are still socially barred from ownership and control as a result of cultural traits. Nonetheless, men value livestock and see it as store of wealth while women, on the other hand, use it as a buffer for shocks (UNDP, 2005). In Nigeria, Adegoke, Adegoke and Oyedele(2016) point out the factors that influence women access to resources in homes to include low income, unemployment , cultural norms and traditional practices. These factors are pertinent to participation in home ownership.

Women’s Ownership of Land Assets

Accessibility to land property either individually or jointly and also access to productive agriculture increase women’s bargaining power within and outside the family (Wiig, 2013). Several scientific studies indicate that additional incomes controlled by women leads to greater household expenditure on inputs into child well-being including food, education, and health care services (McElroy 1990, Quisumbing and Maluccio 2003, Kumar and Quisumbing, 2012).

280

Impact of Women’s Ownership of Resources and Socio-Economic Development: A Case of Women in Fika Local Government Area, Yobe State, Nigeria.

Women Ownership of Housing

Income level plays a significant role in accessing house ownership. In fact, it is one of the major determinants for house ownership and it is derived from either business or return from employment (Wizard Home Loans, 2009). Several socio-demographic variables are relevant in predicting home ownership. The most significant ones are marital status, occupation, age, education and income. Often times, employed women are more likely to own house than unemployed women. Likewise, the position of an individual also determines home ownership. There is evidence that property ownership empowers women by increasing their self-confidence, ability to contribute to decisions, control over their reproductive behavior, ability to borrow and economic independence (Pandey, 2010).

Women’s Ownership and Access to Credits

Women’s equal access to credits and representation toward lending sometimes reduce bias and enhance their economic development. Ochieng and Sije (2013) maintain that ability to write business proposal, group formation and owning bank account enables women especially entrepreneural women to access credits from financial institutions. However, inaccessibility to loans, loan information, administrative bureaucracy, high interest, untimely disbursement of loans, untimely supply of inputs, high prices and bureaucracy are amongst the fundamental factors affecting women’s ownership of credits (Okunade, 2007). Derre and Doss (2006) in their findings using data from the survey of customer finance found that constraints in borrowing have negative effect on young, black, and single- household. In the same vain, they also postulate that similar challenges have continued to increase for some group of people especially women. Since the 1980s prices began to increase rapidly and have had a major effect on home ownership particularly among the female household.

Constraints to women’s Ownership of Resources

Globally, women are disproportionately excluded from resources ownership. Worldwide, women continue to remain minority owners of resources such as land, housing and homes and often face discriminatory customs, religious, laws and institutional practices that severally restrict their ability toobtain property (Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions, 2003). Even though, there are at least some instruments and documents that create support for women’s right to land, housing and property, at the local level, laws, customs and traditions pose serious barriers. Also, women’s access to resources is limited by a range of legal, institutional and socio-economic factors, the nature of which vary from one setting to another (Walker, 2002). Some of the factors affecting women ownership of resources are: i. Culture

Cultural taboos that are associated with owning resources such as land and homes are some of the challenges facing women. In Nigeria for instance, culture regards women as property to be inherited after their husband’s death and as such they are not expected to own property in their names (Gbadegesin, 2012). Action Aid International (AAI) (2006) also reveals that attempts by women to control property especially landed property are considered by the community as misbehavior. These accepted cultural beliefs and norms in societies are embedded in people’s

281

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

minds and reflected in people’s actions. These cultural beliefstend to be difficult to change because of their strength to reproduce existing gender relations or contracts to maintain the patriarchal system

ii. Employment Status and Income

It is recognized that women face challenges in achieving resource ownership and this was found to be associated with lower rates of pay, career breaks as a result of preoccupation with motherhood and career roles (Wizard Home Loans, 2009).Merlo and McDonald (2002), discovered that among the factors that were significantly associated with entry into resources ownership are, employment status, which seems to have the strongest impact amongst all others. iii.Legal Issues

Legal issues include patriarchal laws and traditions that deny women’s ability to own and inherit properties such as land and houses (Kupke and Rossini 2012). Meanwhile, land rights that are disputed depend on the ability to press claims before statutory and customary authorities, but all along, there has been systematic difference in land tenure right\between men and women and this has been a great contributor to structural inequality leading to poverty for women. The differences in resources ownership between women and men, and lack of direct access to and control of the resources have placed constraints on women’s productive role and diminish their power and influence in the household and the community (Tistkata, 2004).

Methodology

Thestudy population was composed of all members of the registered women associations in Fika Local Government Area. The population of women in the study area is sixty six thousand nine hundred and one (66901). For the purpose of this research, three hundred and eighty two (382) women were selected from five (5) different registered women associations based on Stratified and simple random sampling techniques. Data were collected using questionnaire which were structured and validated by the researchers in the field. Women participation in the study area were weighted on a 4 point likert type rating scale of agreement (strongly agree, agree, disagree and strongly disagree). The values of the scales were (4, 3, 2 and 1). The data were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and Pearson Linear Regression.

Results and Discussion of Findings

Description of the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents

The result of the socio-economic characteristics of the respondent presented in Table 1, indicates that majority of the respondents (41%) were aged between 20 to 39 years which according to Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO, 1997) are the economically active population. The least respondent’s age group in this study were between the ages of 60 years and above (11.5%). This is because people of such age are very few in the society due to the low life expectancy of less than 65 years in Africa. The educational status of the respondents shows that 32.2% of the respondents were secondary school leavers. This is because most of them were constrained by factors such as culture, religion and finance to limit their level of education to

282

Impact of Women’s Ownership of Resources and Socio-Economic Development: A Case of Women in Fika Local Government Area, Yobe State, Nigeria. secondary school. The least were Master’s Degree holder which constitute 2.2% because very few of them were able to afford education to that level.

With regard to their marital status, majority of the respondents (33.2%) were married. This is due to cultural and religious factors which make most of them to marry at an early age. The findings with regard to the parental status of the respondents revealed that majority (41%) have both parents alive, 26% have only mothers alive.

Table 1. Socio-economic characteristic of the respondents

Variables Frequency Percentage Age Categories Below 20 years 68 17.8 20 – 39 years 157 41.0 40 – 59 years 113 29.3 60 and above years 44 11.3 Total 382 100 Educational status Primary 48 12.6 Secondary 119 31.1 Certificate 61 16.0 Diploma 83 21.7 Degree 43 11.3 PGD 20 5.2 Masters 8 2.1 Total 382 100 Marital status Married 130 34.0 Single 124 32.5 Divorced 63 16.5 Separated 19 5.0 Widowed 46 12.0 Total 382 100 Parental status Both parents 151 39.5 Only father 126 33.0 Only mother 105 27.5 Total 382 100 Source: Field survey (2019)

As regard with women in terms of ownership and control of resources, women rated their ownership as high on all the 13 items asked in this questionnaire. The two items rated low are; access and ownership of a business (mean = 2.45, SD = 0.945) and the ability to manage their own business (mean = 1.90, SD = 0.947). The average mean rating for all items on this constructs indicated that women rated their power of resources ownership and control of resources to be generally high (average mean = 2.62, SD = 0.464). On the overall, respondents rated women total ownership to be generally high (overall mean = 2.52, SD = 0.318), an indication that women are now regarding themselves to be economically empowered. the findings went in line with the study of Pambè, Thiombiano and Kabore(2014) that empowering women through education have a multiplier effect on women status particularly regarding their participation in household decision making.

283

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

Table 2. Description of the extent women’s ownership of resources Women’s ownership and control of resources Mean SD Interpretation Rank Access to job in private companies 2.98 1.096 High 1 Access and ownership of economic and financial 2.92 1.028 High 2 resources Access to jobs in public services 2.80 1.044 High 3 Access and ownership of production units 2.75 .938 High 4 Access and ownership of a house 2.73 2.278 High 5 Access and ownership of rentable houses 2.67 1.479 High 6 Access to some monthly incomes 2.61 1.021 High 7 Access and ownership of land 2.60 1.029 High 8 Access to water and energy 2.60 1.074 High 8 Access and ownership of some inherited property 2.55 .940 High 10 Access to modern technology use 2.53 1.457 High 11 Access and ownership of a business 2.45 .945 Low 12 Ability to manage their own business 1.90 .947 Low 13 Average mean 2.62 .464 High Overall mean 2.52 .318 High

Source: Field survey (2019)

The level of the socio-economic development in the study area

The dependent variable in this study was to assess the level of socioeconomic development (SED) among the women of Fika Local Government Area of Yobe State. Socio-economic development was broken into two elements and several questions were asked on each (household income, 5questions) and family standard of living (12 questions). Women rated their socioeconomic development on the different items and their ratings were summarized using means and standard deviation and the results were indicated in the table below. The result with respect to women’s income level, respondents in the sample rated their level of SED to be generally low on four items out of five used to measure this construct. The items on which SED was rated highest (and the only one which was high) was on the fact that most women have bank account for saving their money (item mean = 2.83, SD = 1.029). On the overall however, respondents rated their SED to be generally low in terms of women’s income level, with an average mean of 2.34and a standard deviation of 0. 595 which fall under low on the interpretation scale.

Regarding SED in terms of family standard of living (SOL) respondents rated themselves high as all people in the house sleep under mosquito nets with a mean of 3.02 and a standard deviation of 1.087, and lowest on the fact that the family house as well furnished with plastered walls, cemented floor and electricity, with a mean of 2.51 and a standard deviation of 0.957 on the overall, combining household income and family SOL (the two elements which made by SED), it was revealed that family SED was generally low, as indicated by the overall mean index of 2.50, confirming that average respondents perceived their SED to be generally low. In this regard, women’s access to household income and good standard of living have enormous contribution to their socioeconomic development.

Relationship between women ownership of resources and their socio-economic development

Women ownership of resources is significantly related with their socio-economic development. The study tested the null hypothesis that the two stated variables are not significantly

284

Impact of Women’s Ownership of Resources and Socio-Economic Development: A Case of Women in Fika Local Government Area, Yobe State, Nigeria. correlated. To test this hypothesis, the study correlated the mean scores on women ownership of resources in the table below and those on their socio-economic development using Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient (PLCC). The result of the test are:

Table 3. Pearson’s Correlations for women’s ownership of resources and their socioeconomic development Variables correlated R- Sig. Interpretation Decision on Ho value Women ownership of resources Vs. .178 .001 Significant Rejected income level correlation Women ownership of resources Vs. SOL .311 .000 Significant Rejected correlation Women ownership of resources Vs. .300 .000 Significant Rejected overall SED correlation Source: Field survey (2019)

Note: R-value = Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient

Sig. = Significant Level

The result indicated that women ownership of resource is significantly correlated with all elements of women socioeconomic development (all sig. <0.05). It is also revealed that women ownership of resources is positively correlated with all elements of women’s socioeconomic development (all R-value > 0). Which implies that increase in women ownership of resources is likely to increase their socioeconomic development. Based on these results, the stated null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative is accepted and a conclusion is made that women ownership of resources may significantly increase their socioeconomic development. The findings have agreed with Pandey (2010) that property ownership empowers women by increasing their self-confidence, ability to contribute to decisions, control over their reproductive behavior, ability to borrow and enabled them to be economically independent.

Conclusion

This paper has examined the relationship between women ownership of resources and their socioeconomic development in Fika, Yobe State. The findings of this study revealed that there were significant and positive relationships between independent variable and the dependent variable. Interestingly, the relationship was very strong between women ownership of land, houses and business activities with their socioeconomic development.Furthermore, in order to know the predictors of women socioeconomic development, Regression analysis was conducted in which the result shows that indices of women ownership of resources: women ownership of land, houses and business activities can successfully influence or predict women socioeconomic development with R-value 178, except ability for women to manage their own business that cannot predict their socioeconomic development.The findings of the study revealed that women ownership of resource indices such as (women ownership of land, houses, business activities and ability for women to manage their own business) were positively and significantly correlated with socioeconomic development. The findings of the study raised some crucial issues that call for practical recommendations for academics, governments, non-governmental organizations, philanthropists and other stakeholders, as well as recommendations that may be able to direct future studies in the

285

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019 aspect of women ownership of resources and socioeconomic development.Finally, the results of this study revealed that if women are fully empowered with good resources, definitely they would be self-reliant and would help to reduce gender inequality in society as most of the communities perceived women as second class citizen that are expected to surrender themselves to the will of their husbands. This is happening due to the role played by culture.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that, if any intervention is to be carried out in order to reduce gender equality and women empowerment, women ability to manage their own businesses should be given more emphasis. This is very crucial for government, NGOs and philanthropists to be more positive with women socioeconomic development because women ability to manage their own businesses appeared to be very low in predicting women socioeconomic development. The Nigerian government and those concerned should act fast in reviewing women empowerment programmes and strategies in order to have room for improvement.

References

Action Aid International (AAI) (2006), “Women’s land rights”, discussion paper prepared for the UNRISD, Project Agrarian Change, Gender and Land Right, Johannesburg.

Adegoke, B. F., Adegoke, O. J., & Oyedele, J. B. (2016). Factors influencing women participation in home ownership in Nigeria. Property Management, 34(1), 67–78. https://doi.org/10.1108/PM-12-2014-0053

Agarwal, B. (1994). A Field of One’s Own: Gender and Land Right in South Africa. Cambridge University Press.

Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions (2003), “Placing women’s inheritance rights on the Agenda in Sub-Saharan Africa”, COHRE Newsletter, Vol. 1 No. 1, p. 6.

Chant, S. (2013). Cities through a “ gender lens ”: a golden “ urban age ” for women in the global South ? In Cities through a “gender lens”: a golden “urban age” for women in the global South? SYLVIA (Vol. 25, pp. 9–29). https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247813477809

Das, T. K., and Pulla, V. (2014). Is Micro Credit in Urban Poverty Making a Difference ? A Review from Bangladesh. International Journal of Social Work and Human Services Practice, 2(2), 73–81.

Deere, C. D. and Twyman, J. (2012). Asset Ownership and Egalitarian Decision Making in Dual-headed Households in Ecuador. Review of Radical Political Economics, 44(3), 313– 320. https://doi.org/10.1177/0486613412446043

Derre, D., and Doss, C. (2006). The gender asset gap: what do we know and why does it matter? Feminist Economics, 12(2), 1–150.

Gbadegesin, J.T. (2012), “A survey of cultural and traditional implication on women’s rights

286

Impact of Women’s Ownership of Resources and Socio-Economic Development: A Case of Women in Fika Local Government Area, Yobe State, Nigeria.

to Land for development”, Sri Lanka: A Journal of Real Estate, No. 5, pp. 23-34.

Haase, D. (2011). Revolution , Interrupted : Gender and Microfinance in Nicaragua. https://doi.org/10.1177/0896920511404443

Kabeer, N. (1999). Resources, Agency, Achievements: Reflections on the Measurement of Women’s Empowerment. Development and Change, 30(3), 435–464. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-7660.00125

Karwenji, M. (2012). Challenges Facing Women Owned Small and Micro Enterprises in Kenya.

Kumar, N., Quisumbing, A. (2012). Beyond “Death do us part”: the Long-term implications of divorce perceptions on women’s well-being and child schooling in rural Ethiopia. World Development, 40(12), 2478–2489.

Kupke, V. and Rossini, P. (2012), “Identifying home ownership rates for female households in Australia”,18th Annual Pacific RIM Real Estate Society Conference, Adelaide, January 15-18, pp. 1-20.

Lundberg, S. and Pollak, R. A. (1993). Separate Spheres Bargaining and the Marriage Market.Journal of Political Economy, 101(6), 988–1010. https://doi.org/10.1086/261912

McElroy, M. (1990). The empirical content of Nash-bargained household behavior. J. Hum. Resour. 25 (4), 559–583. Journal of Human Resource, 25(4), 559–583.

Merlo, R. and McDonald, P. (2002), “Outcomes of home ownership aspirations and their Determinants”, AHURI final report, Melbourne.

Moghadam, V. M. (2003). Modernizing Women : in the Middle East.Nigeria Population Census. (2006). nigeria population census.

Ochieng, A.P., and Sije, A. (2013). Strategy Adoptation and Women Entrepreneurs in Accessing Credit Facilities in Kenyan Financial Institutions A Case of Women Entrepreneurs in Komala Municipality, Kisumu Country Pamela. International Journal of Small Business and Entrepreneurship Research, 1(4), 1–10.

Okunade, E. O. (2007). Accesibility of agricultural credit and inputs to women farmers of Isoya rural development project. Research Journal of Agriculture and Biological Sciences, 3(3), 138–142.

Pambè, M. W., Thiombiano, B. G. and Kabore, I. (2014). Relationship between women’s socioeconomic status and empowerment in Burkina Faso : A focus on participation in decision-making and experience of domestic violence. African Population Studies Vol, 28(2), 1146–1156.

Pandey, S. (2010). Rising property ownership among women in Kathmandu, Nepal: An

287

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 1, Number 3 August, 2019

exploration of causes and consequences. International Journal of Social Welfare, 19(3), 281–292. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2397.2009.00663.x

Pitt, M. M., Khandker, S. R. and Cartwright, J. (2006). Empowering Women with Microfinance: Evidence from Bangladesh. University of Chicago Press Journals, 54(4). prospects and challenges”, Working Group 2. Land in Africa Conference, London, November 8-9.

Quisumbing, A. R. and Maluccio, J. A. (2003). Resources at marriage and intrahousehold allocation: Evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and South Africa. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(3), 283–327. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468- 0084.t01-1-00052

Tistkata, D. (2004). “Gender, land rights and inheritance securing women’s land rights approaches,

Walker, C. (2002). “Land reform in Southern and Eastern Africa: key issues for strengthening Women’s access to and rights in land”, report commissioned by the Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO Sub-regional Office for Southern and Eastern Africa, Harare.

Wiig, H. (2013). Joint titling in rural peru: Impact on women’s participation in household decision-making.WorldDevelopment,52(196328),104–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.06.005

WizardHomeLoans. (2009). “Emerging trends in women’s home ownership”, Wizard report.

288