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Hero Motocorpfebruary 07, 2020 Hero MotoCorp (HERHON) CMP: | 2,300 Target: | 2,500 (9%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD June 10, 2020 Weak margins, B/S positives remain, limited upside… Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) reported mixed Q4FY20 results. Total 2-W volumes at 13.3 lakh units were down 25.1% YoY. Net sales were at | 6,238 crore Particulars (down 21% YoY), with blended ASPs up 5.6% YoY to | 46,747/unit. EBITDA margins came in at 10.6%, a multi-year low (down 420 bps QoQ) on the back Particular Amount Market Capitalization ₹ 45931 Crore of 260 bps QoQ gross margin deterioration. Consequent PAT was at | 621 Total Debt (FY20P) ₹ 0 Crore crore, supported by lower tax outgo (tax rate a mere 4.6%). HMCL declared Cash & Investments (FY20P) ₹ 5936.4 Crore a final dividend of | 25/share for FY20 (total dividend | 90/share). EV (FY20P) ₹ 39994.6 Crore 52 week H/L (₹) 3021 / 1475 Result Update Result High rural slate to help consolidate market share Equity capital (₹ crore) 39.9 Face value ₹ 2 HMCL is the market leader in the domestic motorcycle space, commanding ~52% market share, as of FY20. We expect the motorcycle sub segment to Key Highlights be among the frontrunners of post Covid recovery on account of (1) higher share of sub segment sales in rural economy, which has been less exposed Total 2-W sales volume in Q4FY20 came in at 13.3 lakh units, down to the pandemic outbreak and currently holds more stable income prospects 25.1% YoY. A 5.6% rise in blended courtesy remunerative Rabi crop prices and expectations of a normal ASPs helps prevent equivalent slide monsoon and (2) increasing preference for private transport amid in net sales heightened awareness around social distancing. The motorcycle space can Q4FY20 margins at 10.6% form a also witness some downtrading impact from generally reduced spending multi-year low, impacted by 260 bps power, bringing entry level products into focus. Here also, HMCL is the gross margin deterioration and negative operating leverage market leader through models like Splendor, HF Deluxe, Passion in 75-110 cc range and Glamour, Splendor 125 in 110-125 cc range. HMCL’s dominant HMCL is well placed to further strengthen market share in entry presence in likely beneficiary pockets (rural slate forms >50% of HMCL level and overall motorcycle space volumes) leave it well placed to further consolidate market share. Sharp price appreciation leads us to downgrade HMCL from BUY to Modest margin recovery over FY20P-22E HOLD with revised target price of | 2,500 i.e. 17x P/E on FY22E EPS The 10.6% EBITDA margin recorded in Q4FY20 represented a multi-year low. However, management commentary stated margins ex-Covid impact Research Analyst and other one offs would have been at 13.5% levels. With overall auto Shashank Kanodia, CFA industry retail registrations at ~40% of pre-Covid levels currently, demand [email protected] Retail Equity Research Equity Retail ramp up is expected to be gradual. This limited operating leverage would – Jaimin Desai keep margins under pressure at the OEM level in FY21E. Moreover, [email protected] expected downtrading trend could negate some pricing gains achieved on account of BS-VI. We build in 12.5% margins for HMCL by FY22E. Valuation & Outlook We continue to like HMCL for its market leadership in pockets that are expected to recover quicker once Covid-19 effect subsides and for its robust Securities ICICI financials [debt free B/S, healthy return ratios, strong cash generation (present FCF yield ~8%)]. However, a sharp stock price run up in the recent past places HMCL near its long period average valuation parameters. We value HMCL at | 2,500 (17x P/E on FY22E EPS of | 147.6) and assign HOLD. Key Financial Summary Key Financials FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E CAGR (FY20P-22E) Net Sales 32,230.5 33,650.5 28,836.1 27,692.0 32,103.6 5.5% EBITDA 5,280.2 4,929.8 3,958.0 2,963.0 4,007.7 0.6% EBITDA Margins (%) 16.4 14.6 13.7 10.7 12.5 Net Profit 3,697.4 3,384.6 3,633.3 2,193.2 2,947.6 -9.9% Normalised Net Profit 3,697.4 3,384.6 3,202.6 2,193.2 2,947.6 -4.1% EPS (₹) 185.1 169.5 181.9 109.8 147.6 P/E 12.4 13.6 12.6 20.9 15.6 RoNW (%) 31.4 26.3 22.7 14.5 17.9 RoCE (%) 42.4 37.1 26.5 18.7 23.2 Source: ICICI Direct Research, Company Result Update | Hero MotoCorp ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q4FY20 Q4FY20E Q4FY19 YoY (%) Q3FY20 QoQ (%) Comments Topline came in ahead of our estimates primarily Total Operating Income 6,238 6,060 7,885 -20.9 6,997 -10.8 tracking beat on ASPs RM costs came in substantially higher at 69.2% of Raw Material Expenses 4,320 4,096 5,439 -20.6 4,660 -7.3 sales, up 260 bps QoQ Employee Expenses 435 473 447 -2.7 470 -7.3 Other expenses at 13.2% of sales came in higher, Other expenses 823 742 930 -11.5 828 -0.6 tracking negative operating leverage Operating Profit (EBITDA) 660 748 1,069 -38.3 1,039 -36.5 EBITDA margins came in at a multi-year low, tracking higher raw material costs and perils of negative EBITDA Margins (%) 10.6 12.4 13.6 (300) bps 14.8 (420) bps operating leverage. Management opined ex-Covid and one-offs, EBITDA margins could have been 13.5% for the Other Income 169 172 164 3.2 182 -7.0 Interest 4.1 2.3 2.2 85.4 5.9 -31.4 Depreciation 174.7 202.1 150.2 16.3 203.7 -14.2 PBT after Exceptional Items 650.6 716.4 1,080.8 -39.8 1,011.5 -35.7 Tax rate came in lower at 5% of PBT vs. our estimate of Total Tax 29.9 180.5 350.8 -91.5 131.1 -77.2 ~25% PAT 620.7 535.9 730.0 -15.0 880.4 -29.5 PAT came in ahead of estimates despite lower margin EPS (Adjusted) 31.1 26.8 36.6 -15.0 44.1 -29.5 profile primarily on the back of lower effective tax rate Key Metrics Motorcycle volumes ('000s) 1,279.6 1,279.6 1,623.4 -21.2 1,435.7 -10.9 Total volumes for the quarter were at 13.34 lakh units, Scooter volumes ('000s) 54.9 54.9 157.8 -65.2 105.1 -47.8 down 25% YoY and 13% QoQ Blended ASPs came in higher at | 46,747 tracking better Net Blended ASP (₹/unit) 46,747 45,408 44,265 5.6 45,408 2.9 product mix as well as increasing dispatch of BS-VI variants Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY21E FY22E (₹ Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Marginally tweak estimates. We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% over FY20-22E primarily led by increase in ASPs due Revenue 29,370 27,692 -5.7 33,435 32,104 -4.0 to BS-VI transition with overall volume trajectory remaining muted (CAGR basis) over the aforesaid period EBITDA 3,393 2,963 -12.7 4,385 4,008 -8.6 Lower-than-anticipated margins in Q4FY20 coupled with limited EBITDA Margin 11.6 10.7 -85 bps 13.1 12.5 -63 bps operating leverage benefits lead us to downward revise our margin (%) estimates, going forward PAT 2,362 2,193 -7.1 3,124 2,948 -5.6 Downward revision in sales and margin estimates leads us to EPS (₹) 118.3 109.8 -7.1 156.4 147.6 -5.6 downward revise our PAT estimates, going forward. We expect PAT to de-grow at a CAGR of 4.1% over FY20-22E Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E Motorcycle volumes (lakh units) 71 60 51 58 53 59 Going forward, post 14% YoY volume decline in FY21E on account of Covid-19 led demand destruction, we expect volumes to stage a recovery growing at 15% Scooter volumes (lakh units) 7 4 4 5 5 5 YoY in FY22E. Consequently, volume CAGR over FY20- 22E is pegged at -0.7%. Scooter segment, due to its Total volumes (lakh units) 78 64 55 63 58 64 low base, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5% while motorcycle volumes are seen growing at -1.5% CAGR in the aforesaid period Growth (%, YoY) -18% -14% 15% Gross Blended ASP (₹/unit) 43,026 44,988 50,253 50,827 51,084 51,922 Marginally tweak ASP estimates for FY21E & FY22E Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Hero MotoCorp ICICI Direct Research Conference Call Highlights Management guidance/outlook and demand The management refrained from giving any volume, margin guidance for FY21E. However, they said rural, semi-urban markets (~50% of HMCL sales) are expected to outperform the urban segment in FY21E On the scooter segment, the management opined FY20 was a year of inventory adjustments for them and now it is geared for healthy growth trajectory, going forward. Its Pleasure Plus model in 110 cc segment is being well received by the market. With 125 cc segment, it expects to further consolidate its presence through Destni, Maestro Edge The company expects its share in the premium motorcycle segment to increase with the help of new launches.
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