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2014 VCU RAMS BASEBALL VCU Athletic Communications • 1300 West Broad Street • Richmond, Va. 23284 Baseball Contact: Scott Wyant • (O) 804.828.9428 • (C) 540.840.1554 • (F) 804.828.9428 • [email protected] 2014 VCU SCHEDULE/RESULTS >> TALKING POINTS Date Day Opponent Time/Result Feb. 14 Fri. Radford# W, 9-4 WE MEET AGAIN Feb. 15 Sat. Old Dominion# W, 6-3 • Tonight marks the second and final meeting between East Feb. 16 Sun. at Georgia Tech# W, 5-3 Carolina and VCU. Feb. 19 Wed. Old Dominion L, 4-6 • The first meeting came on Feb. 25, a 3-0 win for the Rams at EAST CAROLINA VCU Feb. 21 Fri. at Furman W, 14-9 The Diamond. PIRATES RAMS Feb. 22 Sat. at Furman W, 8-7 • Today’s starter, Daniel Concepcion, threw in that game as well, Web: ECUPirates.com Web: VCUAthletics.com Feb. 23 Sun. at Furman W, 3-2 (10) Feb. 25 Tues. East Carolina W, 3-0 going 6.2 scoreless innings. Concepcion struck out seven and Location: Greenville, N.C. Location: Richmond, Va. March 1 Sat. Temple W, 5-2 allowed just three hits that day. Conference: C-USA Conference: Atlantic 10 March 1 Sat. Temple W, 10-0 • ECU will also use the same starter from the first meeting, Tyler 2014 Record: 10-10 2014 Record: 13-3 March 2 Sun. Temple W, 14-5 Bolton. The junior went 6.0 innings and allowed just one run. Head Coach: Billy Godwin Head Coach: Shawn Stiffler March 5 Wed. Maryland PPD to 5/6 March 7 Fri. at UNC Wilmington L, 2-4 March 9 Sun. at UNC Wilmington W, 14-8 5, 6, 7, 8 >> SETTING THE SCENE March 9 Sun. at UNC Wilmington W, 4-2 • The Rams have thrived in innings five through eight this March 11 Tues. at Charlotte L, 5-4 season, outscoring opponents 83-30. Date..........................................................................................March 19 March 12 Wed. at Virginia Tech W, 21-14 • VCU’s total in those innings top the opposition’s total runs Location...........................................................................Greenville, N.C. March 14 Fri. Lafayette^ W, 3-2 scored (82). March 15 Sat. Buffalo^ W, 1-0 Live Stats.............................................................................Gametracker March 16 Sun. Rutgers^ W, 7-6 • So far this season the eighth inning has been the most produc- Live Radio....................................................................VCUAthletics.com March 19 Wed. at East Carolina 6 p.m. tive for the Black and Gold with 25 runs scored. Stadium..............................................................................The Diamond March 21 Fri. St. Bonaventure* 6:30 p.m. March 22 Sat. St. Bonaventure* 3 p.m. HIT ‘EM WHERE IT HURTS March 23 Sun. St. Bonaventure* 1 p.m. • With runners in scoring position the Rams are batting .347 >> BY THE NUMBERS March 26 Wed. Old Dominion% 7 p.m. (84/242) on the year. March 28 Fri. at George Mason* 3 p.m. Overall 16-3 March 29 Sat. at George Mason* 2 p.m. • Four Rams are batting .400 or above in this situation in fresh- man Shane Dressler (.667), Logan Farrar (.450) and seniors Bill Atlantic 10 March 30 Sun. at George Mason* 1 p.m. Home 7-1 April 1 Tues. at Maryland 6 p.m. Cullen (.407) and Landon Prentiss (.667) Away 7-2 April 2 Wed. VMI 6:30 p.m. • Five other VCU hitters hold averages above .300 or better with Neutral 2-0 April 4 Fri. Saint Joseph’s* 6:30 p.m. runners on second or third. April 5 Sat. Saint Joseph’s* 3 p.m. Current Streak W4 April 6 Sun. Saint Joseph’s* 1 p.m. Last 5 games 4-1 April 8 Tues. Virginia Tech 6:30 p.m. DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK Last 10 games 8-2 April 11 Fri. at Richmond* 3 p.m. • The Rams have rallied from behind to take a lead in 13 contests Last 15 games 12-3 April 12 Sat. at Richmond* 1 p.m. this season. Last 20 games 13-3 April 13 Sun. at Richmond* 1 p.m. • In the 13 go ahead innings the Rams have put together a com- Longest Winning Streak W7 April 16 Wed. Norfolk State 7 p.m. Longest Losing Streak L1 April 18 Fri. La Salle* 6:30 p.m. bined 45 runs. Broken down, that averages to 3.5 runs an inning. April 19 Sat. La Salle* 3 p.m. • VCU’s largest rally came on Feb. 21 when the Rams scored seven April 20 Sun. La Salle* 1 p.m. runs against Furman in the eighth. The Black and Gold went on >> WEEKEND PROBABLE STARTERS April 22 Tues. Virginia 7 p.m. to defeat the Paladins 14-9. April 25 Fri. at Rhode Island* 3 p.m. • The Rams rallied for the first time in the ninth on March 9 Friday, March 21 | 6:30 p.m. | Richmond, Va. April 26 Sat. at Rhode Island* 1 p.m. in game one of the doubleheader VCU plated eight runs after April 27 Sun. at Rhode Island* 12 p.m. Steven Klimek | RHP | So. April 30 Wed. at VMI 6 p.m. entering the inning down 8-6. The Black and Gold’s offensive 0-2, 5.40 ERA, 15.0 IP, 10 K’s May 2 Fri. George Washington* 6:30 p.m. explosion pushed the Rams past UNCW 14-8. May 3 Sat. George Washington* 3 p.m. • VCU’s largest deficit of the season came on March 12, down 9-2 Seth Greene | RHP | R-Sr. May 4 Sun. George Washington* 1 p.m. to the Virginia Tech Hokies. VCU went on to score 11 striaght runs 1-0, 3.68 ERA, 29.1 IP, 16 K’s May 6 Tue. Maryland 6:30 p.m. en route to a 21-14 win over the ACC Foe. Saturday, March 22 | 3:00 p.m. | Richmond, Va. May 9 Fri. at Massachusetts* 3 p.m. • The Black and Gold’s first walk-off win came against Rutgers on May 10 Sat. at Massachusetts* 1 p.m. Joel Rosencrance | RHP | Sr. May 11 Sun at Massachusetts* 12 p.m. March 16 when an RBI single completed a comback that saw the May 13 Tues. at Virginia 6 p.m. Rams down 6-2 at one point. 2-1, 4.35 ERA, 20.2 IP, 17 K’s May 15 Thurs. at Fordham* 12 p.m. Heath Dwyer | LHP | Jr. May 16 Fri. at Fordham* 12 p.m. DECISION MAKERS 1-0, 2.77 ERA, 26.0 IP, 28 K’s May 17 Sat. at Fordham* 7 p.m. May 21-24 Wed.-Sat. Atlantic 10 Championship TBD • The bullpen has factored in 13 decisions, with six different relievers picking up wins. Sunday, March 23 | 1:00 p.m. | Richmond, Va. * - Atlantic 10 game • Matt Lees has recordeda team high three wins out of the pen # - Battle in Midtown in Atlanta this season (3-1). Asa Jackson | RHP | Sr. ^- PK5 Classic 1-1, 1.33 ERA, 20.1 IP, 4 K’s % - Keydog Strike Out Cancer Classic in Hampton, Va. JoJo Howie | LHP | Jr. 2-0, 2.16 ERA, 25.0 IP, 23 K’s Virginia Commonwealth University Basball • Page 1 OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION VCU QUICK FACTS • On March 12, VCU and Virginia Tech combined for 35 runs when the Rams topped the Hokies 21-14 in Blacksburg. Location Richmond, Va. • The 21 runs are the most scored by the Rams since the Black and Gold put up 29 against Fairleigh Dickinson on Feb. 29 Founded 1838 2004. Current Yankee Scott Sizemore drove in six runs that day in the nine hole. Enrollment 32,000 • All nine batters for VCU scored a run and the offense posted six doubles, including three from Joey Cujas alone. Nickname Rams • Bill Cullen’s five RBIs lead the attack that saw four Rams post multiple RBI days. Colors Black & Gold (PMS 116C) • Shortstop Vimael Machin recorded an RBI in four striaght frames in the fifth through eighth innings. Affiliation NCAA Division I Conference Atlantic 10 DOMINANT DAY Home Field The Diamond • On March 15 against Buffalo Heath Dwyer posted one of the best pitching performances in program history. Capacity 9,750 • Dwyer struck out a career-hight 15 Bulls that day, and just allowed two hits in the complete game shutout win. Dimensions LF-330, CF-402, RF-330 • The complete game marked the fifth time the junior has gone the distance for the Rams. Surface Natural Grass INSTANT IMPACT ADMINSTRATION • Freshman Matt Davis has had an instant impact for the Rams this spring. In his first weekend as a Ram Davis batted .500 with three doubles and two RBIs. President Dr. Michael Rao • With Runners on base that weekend Davis batted .750 and was 4-for-4 with two outs. • The Atlantic 10 rewarded Davis’ play from the opening weekend of the season by naming him Newcomer of the Week on Alma Mater University of South Florida Feb. 17. Office 804.828.1200 • Classmate Logan Farrar shined in the DH spot for the Rams that weekend as well with five hits, an RBI and a stolen base. Director of Athletics Ed McLaughlin Alma Mater Boston College, ‘95 PRIZE BULL Office 804.828.4000 • In the first weekend of the season the bullpen earned all three wins for the Rams. • Returner Logan Kaniuk picked up the win against Old Dominion and newcomers Daniel Concepcion and Matt Blanchard BASEBALL STAFF beat Radford and Georgia Tech respectively. • The bullpen as a whole allowed two runs in 11.0 innings for a 1.63 ERA during the Battle in Midtown.
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  • A Point-Mass Mixture Random Effects Model for Pitching Metrics

    A Point-Mass Mixture Random Effects Model for Pitching Metrics

    Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Volume 6, Issue 3 2010 Article 8 A Point-Mass Mixture Random Effects Model for Pitching Metrics James Piette, University of Pennsylvania Alexander Braunstein, Google, Inc. Blakeley B. McShane, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Shane T. Jensen, University of Pennsylvania Recommended Citation: Piette, James; Braunstein, Alexander; McShane, Blakeley B.; and Jensen, Shane T. (2010) "A Point-Mass Mixture Random Effects Model for Pitching Metrics," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports: Vol. 6: Iss. 3, Article 8. Available at: http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol6/iss3/8 DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1237 ©2010 American Statistical Association. All rights reserved. A Point-Mass Mixture Random Effects Model for Pitching Metrics James Piette, Alexander Braunstein, Blakeley B. McShane, and Shane T. Jensen Abstract A plethora of statistics have been proposed to measure the effectiveness of pitchers in Major League Baseball. While many of these are quite traditional (e.g., ERA, wins), some have gained currency only recently (e.g., WHIP, K/BB). Some of these metrics may have predictive power, but it is unclear which are the most reliable or consistent. We address this question by constructing a Bayesian random effects model that incorporates a point mass mixture and fitting it to data on twenty metrics spanning approximately 2,500 players and 35 years. Our model identifies FIP, HR/ 9, ERA, and BB/9 as the highest signal metrics for starters and GB%, FB%, and K/9 as the highest signal metrics for relievers. In general, the metrics identified by our model are independent of team defense.