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Vulnerability of Tasmania's Natural Environment to Climate Change: An

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Vulnerability of Tasmania's Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment Citation: Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Resource Management and Conservation Division (2010). Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview. Unpublished report. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Hobart. Acknowledgements: Louise Gilfedder, Felicity Faulkner and Jennie Whinam were responsible for the production of this document. However, many DPIPWE staff contributed to this report through discussions, comments on early drafts and provision of written and photographic material and their help is gratefully acknowledged. These include Michael Askey-Doran, Jayne Balmer, Stewart Blackhall, Oberon Carter, Andrew Crane, Brooke Craven, Michael Driessen, Rolan Eberhard, Bryce Graham, Stephen Harris, Ian Houshold, Drew Lee, Declan McDonald, Clarissa Murphy, Annie Phillips, Adrian Pyrke, Tim Rudman, Peter Voller and Howel Williams. Greg Holz and Michael Grose from the Climate Futures for Tasmania Project are thanked for their assistance with climate data. Thanks also to Brett Littleton of the ILS Design Unit of DPIPWE who did the graphic design. ISBN (Book): 978-0-7246-6532-7 ISBN (Web): 978-0-7246-6533-4 Cover: Frozen puddles in buttongrass moorland (Oberon Carter). Insets: Red-capped dotterel (Mick Brown), Shaw’s cowfish (Benita Vincent), Short candleheath (DPIPWE). Inside Cover: Macquarie Island Nature Reserve (Tim Rudman). Back Inside Cover: Wet forest (Matt Taylor). © Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, 2010. Copyright All material published in the report by the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, as an agent of the Crown, is protected by the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cwlth). Other than in accordance with the provisions of the Act, or as otherwise expressly provided, a person must not reproduce, store in a retrieval system, or transmit any such material without first obtaining the written permission of the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment. Disclaimer Whilst the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment makes every attempt to ensure the accuracy and reliability of information published in this report, it should not be relied upon as a substitute for formal advice from the originating bodies or Departments. DPIPWE, its employees and other agents of the Crown will not be responsible for any loss, however arising, from the use of, or reliance on this information. Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview Secretary’s Foreword Tasmania is a special place, an archipelago of 334 islands, The Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and with rugged wild coastline and mountainous regions, Environment has a key role in managing and preserving wilderness and unique natural heritage. The island our beautiful, unique State, including caring for Tasmania’s supports wide geographical, climatic and environmental past, present and future natural heritage. We must variation providing a range of habitats for our wildlife work with the community, business, industry and non- and our rich and diverse flora. Over 40% of the state is government sectors to build resilience so that we can protected in reserves, including the Tasmanian Wilderness reduce the vulnerability of the natural environment to the and Macquarie Island World Heritage areas. We are potential impacts of climate change. indeed in a unique position. My Department currently has projects underway that Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge focus on climate change projection and adaptation. for biodiversity conservation planning and natural The Adaptation to Climate Change for Tasmania’s Natural resource management in Tasmania. Biodiversity has Systems Project is one of these initiatives. The project will been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors provide information about the impact of climate change to the impacts of climate change. Natural systems and on the State’s natural values to enable adaptation to be the biodiversity they contain underpin the provision of incorporated into policy and management responses for ecological processes, including nutrient, carbon and water the sustainable management and conservation of our cycling, and help maintain ecological services such as water natural resources. This report is part of that process. purification, carbon storage, pollination and pest control. Our economy and our well-being are reliant on a healthy natural environment. Kim Evans Secretary Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water & Environment ii Secretary’s foreword Overview There is general consensus that climate change will result The Tasmanian Government’s Framework for Action on in increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, Climate Change identified four areas where Tasmania widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global should initially focus in adapting to climate change: average sea level. - Ensuring scientific research provides a firm foundation Over the coming decades Tasmania is expected to for taking action in different regions and different experience: sectors by measuring and predicting climate change and identifying new approaches; - increased land and sea temperatures; - Giving individuals, communities and businesses - changes to rainfall patterns and higher evaporation in appropriate information, resources, skills and incentives most areas; to plan and adapt to climate change and manage their - wind speed changes; and own risks; - sea level rises. - Providing an adequate and appropriate emergency Despite global and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gas response to more frequent and intense events, such as emissions, some level of climate change is now inevitable, bushfires, floods and storms, and assisting communities and we will need to adapt the way we do things to recover from such events; and maintain Tasmania’s social, environmental and economic - Managing risks to public infrastructure, assets and wellbeing. values (including roads, biodiversity, national parks and reserves), and protecting industry and the community Dealing with climate change will be part of the reality of against health and bio-security risks. life in Tasmania for many decades to come. This Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to The Australian Government and all Australian State and Climate Change: An Overview provides input into all Territory Governments have recognised the importance four adaptation priorities identified by the Tasmanian of adapting to climate change. There is agreement that: Government. Taking action to adapt to inevitable change is vital if we are to protect and sustainably manage our - some climate change is unavoidable unique natural environment. - attention needs to be paid now to our climate change adaptation needs - adaptation is a shared responsibility – governments, business and the community all have a role. Wendy Spencer Executive Director Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet Overview iii Table of Contents Foreword by Kim Evans (Secretary, Department of 4 Potential Impact of Climate Change Primary Industries, Parks, Water & Environment). ii on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Overview by Wendy Spencer (Director, Tasmanian Ecosystems . 22 Climate Change Office). .iii Key values. 22 Executive Summary . v Impacts on key drivers. .26 1 Introduction . 1 5 Potential Impact of Climate Change on International and national responses . 2 Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity . 29 Setting the scene - Tasmania’s natural heritage. 3 Key values. 29 Tasmania’s reserve estate and World Heritage Areas. .4 Impacts on key drivers. .30 Tasmania and global climate history. 5 Ecosystem level responses. 32 Potential climate change and its physical effects Alpine, subalpine and highland treeless ecosystems . 32. in Tasmania. .. 6 Moorlands and peatlands . 34 Increased CO2 concentrations . 6 Forest, woodland and sssociated ecosystems . 36. Temperature . 7. Lowland grassland ecosystems . 40. Rainfall . 7 Species level responses. 42 Storms . 8. Snow and frost . 8 6 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Other terrestrial effects . 9. Marine and Coastal Ecosystems . 45 Effects of oceans and ocean currents on Key values. 45 terrestrial weather . 10. Impacts on key drivers . 47 Changes in the physical marine environment . 10 Predicted impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. 50 Sea level rise . 11. Tasmania’s subantarctic Macquarie Island. 54 2 Interaction of Current Stressors to 7 Responding to Climate Change . 56 Natural Values with Climate Change . 12 Mitigation and adaptation. .56 Fire. 12 Principles for managing natural assets. .57 Invasive species. 13 Monitoring the impacts of climate change on Wildlife diseases and pathogens. 15 key natural assets. 58 Land use change. 16 8 Glossary of Terms . 59 3 Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geoconservation and Land Resource 9 References . 62 Values . 17 Key values. 18 Impacts on key drivers. .19 iv Table of Contents Executive Summary Climate change is a global issue and Tasmania, like other Assessment of the Vulnerability of Australia’s Biodiversity to parts of Australia, is already showing evidence of change. Climate Change (Steffen et al . 2009), was released in 2009, Much of Tasmania has experienced a warming in average along with a technical synthesis and
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