Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview

Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment Citation: Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Resource Management and Conservation Division (2010). Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview. Unpublished report. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Hobart.

Acknowledgements: Louise Gilfedder, Felicity Faulkner and Jennie Whinam were responsible for the production of this document. However, many DPIPWE staff contributed to this report through discussions, comments on early drafts and provision of written and photographic material and their help is gratefully acknowledged. These include Michael Askey-Doran, Jayne Balmer, Stewart Blackhall, Oberon Carter, Andrew Crane, Brooke Craven, Michael Driessen, Rolan Eberhard, Bryce Graham, Stephen Harris, Ian Houshold, Drew Lee, Declan McDonald, Clarissa Murphy, Annie Phillips, Adrian Pyrke, Tim Rudman, Peter Voller and Howel Williams. Greg Holz and Michael Grose from the Climate Futures for Tasmania Project are thanked for their assistance with climate data.

Thanks also to Brett Littleton of the ILS Design Unit of DPIPWE who did the graphic design.

ISBN (Book): 978-0-7246-6532-7 ISBN (Web): 978-0-7246-6533-4

Cover: Frozen puddles in buttongrass moorland (Oberon Carter). Insets: Red-capped dotterel (Mick Brown), Shaw’s cowfish (Benita Vincent), Short candleheath (DPIPWE). Inside Cover: Macquarie Island Nature Reserve (Tim Rudman). Back Inside Cover: Wet forest (Matt Taylor).

© Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, 2010.

Copyright All material published in the report by the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, as an agent of the Crown, is protected by the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cwlth). Other than in accordance with the provisions of the Act, or as otherwise expressly provided, a person must not reproduce, store in a retrieval system, or transmit any such material without first obtaining the written permission of the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment.

Disclaimer Whilst the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment makes every attempt to ensure the accuracy and reliability of information published in this report, it should not be relied upon as a substitute for formal advice from the originating bodies or Departments. DPIPWE, its employees and other agents of the Crown will not be responsible for any loss, however arising, from the use of, or reliance on this information. Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview Secretary’s Foreword

Tasmania is a special place, an archipelago of 334 islands, The Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and with rugged wild coastline and mountainous regions, Environment has a key role in managing and preserving wilderness and unique natural heritage. The island our beautiful, unique State, including caring for Tasmania’s supports wide geographical, climatic and environmental past, present and future natural heritage. We must variation providing a range of habitats for our wildlife work with the community, business, industry and non- and our rich and diverse flora. Over 40% of the state is government sectors to build resilience so that we can protected in reserves, including the Tasmanian Wilderness reduce the vulnerability of the natural environment to the and Macquarie Island World Heritage areas. We are potential impacts of climate change. indeed in a unique position. My Department currently has projects underway that Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge focus on climate change projection and adaptation. for biodiversity conservation planning and natural The Adaptation to Climate Change for Tasmania’s Natural resource management in Tasmania. Biodiversity has Systems Project is one of these initiatives. The project will been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors provide information about the impact of climate change to the impacts of climate change. Natural systems and on the State’s natural values to enable adaptation to be the biodiversity they contain underpin the provision of incorporated into policy and management responses for ecological processes, including nutrient, carbon and water the sustainable management and conservation of our cycling, and help maintain ecological services such as water natural resources. This report is part of that process. purification, carbon storage, pollination and pest control. Our economy and our well-being are reliant on a healthy natural environment.

Kim Evans

Secretary Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water & Environment

ii Secretary’s foreword Overview

There is general consensus that climate change will result The Tasmanian Government’s Framework for Action on in increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, Climate Change identified four areas where Tasmania widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global should initially focus in adapting to climate change: average sea level. - Ensuring scientific research provides a firm foundation Over the coming decades Tasmania is expected to for taking action in different regions and different experience: sectors by measuring and predicting climate change and identifying new approaches; - increased land and sea temperatures; - Giving individuals, communities and businesses - changes to rainfall patterns and higher evaporation in appropriate information, resources, skills and incentives most areas; to plan and adapt to climate change and manage their - wind speed changes; and own risks; - sea level rises. - Providing an adequate and appropriate emergency Despite global and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gas response to more frequent and intense events, such as emissions, some level of climate change is now inevitable, bushfires, floods and storms, and assisting communities and we will need to adapt the way we do things to recover from such events; and maintain Tasmania’s social, environmental and economic - Managing risks to public infrastructure, assets and wellbeing. values (including roads, biodiversity, national parks and reserves), and protecting industry and the community Dealing with climate change will be part of the reality of against health and bio-security risks. life in Tasmania for many decades to come. This Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to The Australian Government and all Australian State and Climate Change: An Overview provides input into all Territory Governments have recognised the importance four adaptation priorities identified by the Tasmanian of adapting to climate change. There is agreement that: Government. Taking action to adapt to inevitable change is vital if we are to protect and sustainably manage our - some climate change is unavoidable unique natural environment. - attention needs to be paid now to our climate change adaptation needs - adaptation is a shared responsibility – governments, business and the community all have a role.

Wendy Spencer

Executive Director Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet

Overview iii Table of Contents

Foreword by Kim Evans (Secretary, Department of 4 Potential Impact of Climate Change Primary Industries, Parks, Water & Environment). . . . ii on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Overview by Wendy Spencer (Director, Tasmanian Ecosystems...... 22 Climate Change Office)...... iii Key values...... 22 Executive Summary ...... v Impacts on key drivers...... 26

1 Introduction...... 1 5 Potential Impact of Climate Change on International and national responses ...... 2 Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity . . . 29 Setting the scene - Tasmania’s natural heritage...... 3 Key values...... 29 Tasmania’s reserve estate and World Heritage Areas. . .4 Impacts on key drivers...... 30 Tasmania and global climate history...... 5 Ecosystem level responses...... 32 Potential climate change and its physical effects Alpine, subalpine and highland treeless ecosystems. . . 32. in Tasmania...... 6 Moorlands and peatlands ...... 34 Increased CO2 concentrations...... 6 Forest, woodland and sssociated ecosystems . . . . . 36. Temperature...... 7. Lowland grassland ecosystems...... 40. Rainfall...... 7 Species level responses...... 42 Storms ...... 8. Snow and frost ...... 8 6 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Other terrestrial effects...... 9. Marine and Coastal Ecosystems . . . . . 45 Effects of oceans and ocean currents on Key values...... 45 terrestrial weather...... 10. Impacts on key drivers ...... 47 Changes in the physical marine environment...... 10 Predicted impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. . 50 Sea level rise...... 11. Tasmania’s subantarctic Macquarie Island...... 54

2 Interaction of Current Stressors to 7 Responding to Climate Change. . . . . 56 Natural Values with Climate Change. . . 12 Mitigation and adaptation...... 56 Fire...... 12 Principles for managing natural assets...... 57 Invasive species...... 13 Monitoring the impacts of climate change on Wildlife diseases and pathogens...... 15 key natural assets...... 58 Land use change...... 16 8 Glossary of Terms...... 59 3 Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geoconservation and Land Resource 9 References ...... 62 Values...... 17 Key values...... 18 Impacts on key drivers...... 19

iv Table of Contents Executive Summary

Climate change is a global issue and Tasmania, like other Assessment of the Vulnerability of Australia’s Biodiversity to parts of Australia, is already showing evidence of change. Climate Change (Steffen et al . 2009), was released in 2009, Much of Tasmania has experienced a warming in average along with a technical synthesis and a summary for policy maximum temperatures since the 1970’s, accompanied by makers. National assessments have also been undertaken strong decreases in rainfall. Sea level has risen 10-20 cm to assess the implications of climate change for related in the last century, with water temperatures off Tasmania’s issues, including marine life (Hobday et al. 2006), Australia’s east coast increasing by more than 1°C since the 1940s. National Reserve System (Dunlop & Brown 2008), natural Ocean acidity levels have also increased in recent times, resource management (Campbell 2008), World Heritage along with atmospheric CO2 levels. Properties (Australian National University 2009), and fire regimes (Williams et al . 2009). Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge for biodiversity conservation planning and natural resources The Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to management. Government, natural resource managers, Climate Change: An Overview is the first assessment of the land managers, community organisations and the broader potential impacts of climate change on Tasmania’s natural community in Tasmania all need to consider the impacts values. It will help guide the formulation of policy and of climate change, and the mitigation and adaptation management responses for adaptation approaches that efforts that we can all undertake to protect Tasmania’s will enhance the resilience of Tasmania’s natural systems. unique natural environment. Some climate change is now inevitable and we need to adjust to these unavoidable Tasmania’s unique natural heritage changes. Tasmania is an important repository of natural diversity The past decade has seen a significant increase in that represents both elements of the rich assemblages responses to the threat of climate change at the of natural systems and species that are part of Australia’s international and national scales. In 2007 the Fourth ancient heritage, unique and important at a global level, Assessment of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental but also includes elements of this diversity that are unique Panel on Climate Change (generally referred to as IPCC to the state. AR4) completed an assessment of current scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change on As a mountainous state with strong climatic gradients, natural, managed and human systems and the capacity of Tasmania is considered to be somewhat buffered from the these systems to adapt and their vulnerability. The recent predicted impacts of climate change compared to other Climate Change Science Compendium (McMullen 2009), regions in Australia. However, we are still likely to face compiled by the United Nations Environment Program, major challenges. updates and reaffirms the strong scientific evidence of Tasmania’s native vegetation and soils also have additional IPCC AR4, and shows that the pace and scale of climate values as they are important natural storage for carbon, change is increasing at a greater rate than previously particularly in our extensive reserve system, and these thought by scientists. The assessment identified that natural carbon stores will also play an important part in biodiversity and other natural values are one of the most our adaptation approaches. vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change.

The first national assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s biodiversity to climate change was commissioned in 2007. The final report, A Strategic

Executive Summary v Natural values potentially at risk Terrestrial ecosystems considered potentially highly from climate change vulnerable include alpine ecosystems, moorlands and peatlands, particularly to altered fire regimes. Increased This report undertakes an initial assessment of the shrub and tree invasion in these ecosystems could projected impact of climate change on the natural lead to significantly transformed ecosystems, including values of Tasmania’s terrestrial, freshwater and marine increased fuel loads. In addition Tasmanian moorlands and systems, considering the potential impacts on physical peatlands may shift from accumulating carbon to releasing and biological processes. Climate change is likely to lead carbon into the atmosphere, a serious issue for managing to ecosystem changes, including transformed and novel Tasmania’s carbon emissions. Moorland fauna such as the ecosystems, and local species extinctions. Changes such broad-toothed rat and burrowing crayfish are sensitive as decreased rainfall and increased temperature, and to changes in moorland habitats. Species with restricted increased frequency of extreme events such as drought, ranges such as mountain tops or low-lying islands and storm surges, and fire, will variably impact on biodiversity coasts, or those with life strategies or specialised habitats in different regions in Tasmania. Tasmania’s natural and ecological requirements are also at risk to the impacts values are already impacted by a range of threats and of climate change. disturbance regimes such as fire, weeds and diseases - climate change may exacerbate these or lead to complex Freshwater ecosystems are also considered to be highly and cumulative interactions. vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. Warmer temperatures, increased wind and changing Tasmania contains a wide range of geodiversity (rock rainfall patterns are projected to impact on water types, landforms and soils). Climate change will impact availability. Coastal wetlands will be particularly vulnerable on geomorphic process, landforms and soil systems to changes in hydrology and the impacts of sea level rise. both directly and indirectly, with fluvial (rivers, lakes and wetlands) and coastal/estuarine (particularly soft, sandy Marine and coastal ecosystems are predicted to be highly coasts) systems likely to be impacted most significantly. vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Global Soils form a critical link between landforms and vegetation climate models predict that the greatest warming in the providing valuable ecosystem services, controlling Southern Hemisphere oceans will be in the Tasman Sea. vegetation health and moderating infiltration and runoff. Current evidence is showing an increase in southward Climate-induced changes to rainfall intensity, vegetation extent of the East Australian Current off eastern Tasmania, cover, fire frequency and intensity, and windstorm intensity with a resultant southern extension of warmer, nutrient- all have the potential to impact on soils leading to changes poor waters, allowing the southern range extension in soil hydrology, soil organic carbon, salinity, erosion and of marine species including pests. Significant areas of sedimentation. Tasmania’s coast are at risk of erosion from exposure to sea level rise and storm surge inundation.

Managing Tasmania’s natural heritage and dealing with uncertainty associated with climate change will be challenging. Nevertheless, the development and implementation of adaptation measures to inevitable change is vital and will require commitment and action from all levels of government and the Tasmanian community.

vi Executive Summary 1. Introduction This report undertakes an initial natural environment, it is clear that Risk assessment for assessment of the potential impact changes are already happening, climate change of climate change on the natural particularly from extreme events. In values of Tasmania’s terrestrial, this report we do not address the Detailed risk assessment of freshwater and marine systems, various arguments with regard to vulnerability will be needed for considering the potential impacts on the evidence for climate change and some natural values. Ecological physical and biological processes. It its likely causes – climate change is complexity and the non-linearity will assist in identifying key natural accepted as a reality. of responses are two factors that values that are vulnerable, also make predictions about the impacts There is a lack of climate and indicating where a more detailed risk of climate change difficult, along long-term physical and biological assessment is warranted in order with the uncertainty of interactions data available for the southern to identify species, communities between climate change and hemisphere, with a significant and places that are a key risk. This current pressures such as invasive concentration of relevant climate approach will guide the formulation species, diseases and fire. Therefore, science studies in the northern of policy responses, including future to balance the complexities and hemisphere, as illustrated in monitoring strategies and adaptive uncertainties of considering the Figure 1.1 (Fischlin et al . 2007). management responses. future impacts of climate change, The potential risks identified in it is useful when undertaking an Australia (and Tasmania) is currently this report are based on the assessment of the vulnerability of experiencing environmental change extrapolation of ecological and the natural environment to consider that is consistent with a climate biological principles to possible impacts in terms of the exposure change signal. Whilst there is responses to altered temperature and sensitivity of organisms considerable uncertainty about the and rainfall, increased CO2, changes and ecosystems to the changes. nature of the potential impacts from in ocean chemistry and sea level rise. Exposure is the probability that an future climate change on Tasmania’s ecosystem will be subject to changes in climate variables including means, Figure 1 .1 Global locations of observed data series relating to climate change . extremes and variability (e.g. coastal systems will be exposed to sea level rise). The sensitivity of a system is the extent to which changes in climate will affect the system in its current form (e.g. alpine ecosystems will be sensitive to an increase in temperature). On the other hand, the adaptive capacity of a system is its capacity to change in a way that makes it better equipped to deal with changes. Illustrated in Figure 1.2, both the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of a system will contribute to how vulnerable the system is to changes in climate.

1 Figure 1 .2 The contribution of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to a At both the national and Tasmanian system’s overall vulnerability (Allen Consulting Group 2005) . level it is accepted that climate change and climate variability are happening. The Council of Exposure Sensitivity Australian Governments (COAG) is committed to ensuring that an effective and co-ordinated response to climate change is undertaken by Potential Adaptive national and state governments. A National Climate Change Adaptation Impact Capacity Framework was endorsed by COAG in 2007 as the basis for government action on adaptation (Australian Government 2007). Vulnerability It includes possible actions to assist the most vulnerable sectors and regions, such as agriculture, biodiversity, fisheries, forestry, International and disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, settlements and infrastructure, national responses to wildfire, insect herbivory, ocean coastal, water resources, tourism the threat of climate acidification) and in other global and health to adapt to the impacts change change drivers, especially land of climate change. A key focus use change, pollution and over- of the Framework is to support The past decade has seen a exploitation of resources (Fischlin et decision-makers to understand and significant increase in responses to al. 2007). the threat of climate change at the incorporate climate change into international and national scales. The recent Climate Change Science policy and operational decisions at The Fourth Assessment of Working Compendium (McMullen 2009) all scales and across all vulnerable Group II of the Intergovernmental compiled by the United Nations sectors. Panel on Climate Change (generally Environment Program updates The National Resource Management referred to as IPCC AR4) completed and reaffirms the strong scientific Ministerial Council commissioned an assessment of current scientific evidence of IPCC AR4, and shows the first national assessment of understanding of the impacts of that the pace and scale of climate the vulnerability of Australia’s climate change on natural, managed change is accelerating at a greater biodiversity to climate change and human systems, and the capacity rate than previously thought by in 2007 as a priority action. of these systems to adapt and their scientists. Climate Change 2009: The Biodiversity Vulnerability vulnerability (Fischlin et al . 2007). Faster Change and More Serious Risks Assessment was undertaken by The IPCC AR4 global assessment (Steffen 2009) undertakes a similar an independent Biodiversity and has identified that during the course review of recent developments in Climate Change Expert Advisory of this century the resilience of climate science but is focused more Group, a group of prominent many ecosystems and their ability strongly on the issues of more direct Australian scientists chaired by to adapt is likely to be exceeded relevance to Australia. Professor Will Steffen of The by an unprecedented combination Australian National University. The of change in climate, associated

2 Introduction final report, A Strategic Assessment Setting the scene - Tasmania has been described as of the Vulnerability of Australia’s Tasmania’s natural one of Australia’s hotspots of Biodiversity to Climate Change heritage botanical diversity and endemism (Steffen et al . 2009), was released at the large regional scale (Crisp et in June 2009, along with a technical Australia is an isolated continent al . 2001). Tasmania has elements of synthesis and a summary for policy with a unique natural heritage. biodiversity and geodiversity that makers. National assessments Almost 10% of all species on earth reflect southern biogeographic and have also been undertaken to occur in Australia, and Australia Gondwanan affinities. Many of the assess the implications of climate is internationally recognised as a Gondwanan elements are endemic change for marine life (Hobday et global biodiversity hotspot. Many to Tasmania - 20% of the flowering al . 2006; Poloczanska et al . 2009), of Australia’s species are endemic plant species are found nowhere Australia’s National Reserve System - 85% of terrestrial mammals, 90% else, and these endemics tend to be (Dunlop and Brown 2008), natural of flowering plant species, frogs concentrated in alpine and rainforest resource management (Campbell and reptiles are found nowhere environments in western Tasmania. 2008), World Heritage Properties else on earth (Lindenmayer 2007). Some of the endemic eucalypt (Australian National University Australia’s marine environment also and conifer species dominate 2009), and fire regimes (Williamset has unique geological, oceanographic forests, hence this uniqueness is al . 2009). and biological characteristics expressed at both the species (Poloczanska et al. 2007). and the ecosystem level. Recent The Tasmanian State Government, Approximately 85% of fish species, research has also identified genetic along with other organisations and 90% of echinoderm species, 95% of distinctiveness of non-endemic taxa the broader Tasmanian community, mollusc species are endemic (Poore (e.g. Steane et al . 2006; Rathbone et is involved in the development 2001). al . 2007; Nevill 2009). High levels of climate change adaptation of endemism can also be found in strategies through its participation Tasmania has been isolated from invertebrate taxa (up to 100% for in national policy development and the Australian mainland for at some groups) and for fish, and these programs and the development and least 10,000 years, and supports a endemics tend to be concentrated implementation of state strategies. wide variety of plants and animals. in western and central Tasmania Climate change increasingly presents There is wide geographic and (Driessen and Mallick 2003; Mallick a major challenge for biodiversity environmental variation, and high and Driessen 2005). conservation planning in Tasmania diversity in geology, soil types, and for managers of key natural landforms and other ecological There are approximately 1,900 assets, such as protected areas. factors. Tasmania has a temperate native plant species, 34 native climate, with much of the state terrestrial mammals, 159 resident having a mild summer, although terrestrial species of birds, 21 land the Central Highland and alpine reptiles, 11 amphibians and 44 areas have a cool summer. Annual freshwater fish in the state (http:// rainfall ranges from <700 mm to www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au). Tasmania 2,300 mm. Most of Tasmania has a has provided a refuge for species wetter winter than summer, with the that have either died out or are exception of the east and south-east threatened with extinction on the of Tasmania which have no dominant Australian mainland, and it has rainfall season. been protected from most of the

3 introduced animal species that have Tasmania’s biodiversity, oldgrowth a group of contiguous reserves so greatly affected the flora and and wilderness values. The reserve totalling 1.71 million hectares in the fauna of mainland Australia. The system extends over land, inland state’s south-west, the core of which dingo is absent, and feral goats and waters, estuaries and marine areas, is the Tasmanian Wilderness World pigs have restricted distributions and includes formal, informal, and Heritage Area (TWWHA). in Tasmania, and the recent private reserves. Since this time the Tasmania’s Reserve Estate contains a introduction of the fox is a matter of reserve system has been extended significant range of values, including grave concern. considerably through programs and two globally recognised World agreements such as the Tasmanian Heritage Areas. This is illustrated at a Tasmania’s reserve Community Forest Agreement, broad level in Table 1.1, which shows estate and World the Crown Land Assessment the areal extent of major terrestrial Heritage Areas and Classification Project, Marine ecosystems protected in Tasmania’s Protected Area Strategy and various Reserve Estate. It can be seen that Under Tasmania’s Regional Forest private land conservation programs. for several ecosystems, the reserve Agreement (RFA) in 1997 Tasmania is in a unique position system contains more than half of the Tasmanian and Australian nationally, with a large amount of their total extent in Tasmania. The Governments agreed to establish its terrestrial area – 44.4% (June range of habitat types represented a comprehensive, adequate and 2009) in reserves. Of this area, by the various ecosystems in the representative (CAR) reserve over 60,000 ha are in covenants on reserve system support a great system to ensure the long-term private land. The reserve system variety of plants and animals, as conservation and protection of includes large, intact areas, with well as containing significant stores of carbon. The Tasmanian Reserve Table 1 1. The extent of major terrestrial ecosystems in Tasmania, and the amount Estate also contains a range of contained within the Tasmanian Reserve Estate in 2009 . landforms and terrains, including extensive karst systems, glacial Area in % in Major Ecosystem landscapes, spectacular coastal Tasmania (ha) Reserves landforms and beaches, and diverse Coastal 61,000 55 rock and soil types (its geodiversity).

Dry forest and woodland 1,776,000 36 The TWWHA is located in south- Lowland Grassland 100,000 4 west and central Tasmania and was first inscribed on the UNESCO Heathland 135,000 50 World Heritage List in 1982 Highland treeless/alpine 168,000 78 (Tasmanian Government and the Australian Heritage Commission Moorland, rushland and peatland 525,000 90 1981). In 1989 an expanded area Rainforest & rainforest scrubs 780,000 84 of 1.38 million ha was successfully Wet forest 1,431,000 59 nominated (DASETT 1989). It is the outstanding natural and Wetland 14,000 54 aboriginal heritage values present within the TWWHA that have led to * Ecosystems given here are based on expert groupings of TASVEG (DPIW its listing. Its value resides within, and 2009) vegetation communities.

4 Introduction The Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area has outstanding natural and aboriginal heritage values, with extensive glacial and karst landforms . Coniferous rainforests dominated by king billy pine and subalpine shrubberies are uniquely Tasmanian plant communities found in this globally recognised area . (Photo: Tom Bennett)

Palaeo-environmental scientists often use the last full glacial-interglacial cycle (120 000 BP-present) to develop models of the effects of natural climate change on Earth systems. Key studies have focussed on changes between natural global warming and cooling cycles at the peaks and troughs of glacial and is Commonwealth interglacial stages. A large body protected Marine Reserves of work describing methods of by it’s essentially including 16.2 million interpretation (radiometric dating wilderness nature where hectares in the Macquarie Island methods, pollen analysis, macrofossils, the direct impacts of industrial and Marine Reserve. lake, deep-sea and ice-core analysis, agricultural practices are restricted coral, speleothem (cave deposits) to a few locations on its borders. Tasmania and global and tree-ring analysis) is available The TWWHA has extensive glacial climate history to assist with interpreting past and karst landforms throughout the environmental change. region, and is a showcase of natural Planning for Tasmania’s adaptation on-going ecological and biological to climate change relies on an Since 1850 there has been a direct processes, including the presence of understanding of changing global relationship globally between all stages of vegetation succession environmental systems. Therefore, atmospheric CO2 and temperature, between buttongrass moorland and human-induced climate change with increases in CO2 concentration coniferous rainforest. since 1850 must be assessed in preceding increases in temperature. association with ongoing, long-term Understanding the consequences Tasmania’s second World Heritage natural changes that have shaped of these changes, and associated Area is subantarctic Macquarie Island, the land surface and associated soils, lags between production of CO2, which was listed in 1997 (DEST 1996). controlled relationships between the oceanic and terrestrial sequestration, It is a site of outstanding geological land and sea, and determined the will be critical in predicting and natural significance on a world distribution of plants and animals environmental change over the next scale. The island is one of only a few in both terrestrial and marine century. in the Pacific sector of the Southern environments. Ocean where fauna in the region can After 1850, with increasing breed. Around 3.5 million seabirds The current rates of climate change concentration of atmospheric and 80,000 elephant seals arrive on are unprecedented in the global greenhouse gases, global mean Macquarie Island each year to breed climate record. Some of the potential temperature has risen about 0.76 and moult. Fur seals are beginning to scenarios predicted for Australia (and ± 0.19°C, including 0.33°C since re-establish populations on the island Tasmania) for the next 100 years 1990 (Solomon et al . 2007). CO2 after nearly being exterminated in the mean that environmental changes concentrations now exceed the early 19th century. could be experienced that are in natural range of the last 2 million the order of those of the transition years by 25%, methane by 120%, Tasmania also has 122,600 hectares from the last Glacial Maximum to the and nitrous oxide by 25% (Garnaut of Marine Protected Areas, across present, a time period of five million 2008). Most importantly, the rate of five marine bioregions, as well as years (Steffen et al . 2004). increase in both temperature and

5 greenhouse gases far exceeds any graph, maps show the linear trend A2) and low (SRES B1) emission documented increase under natural between 1961 and 2007. scenarios were chosen, and the conditions. models run from 1961 to 2100. The Overall, warming in terrestrial updated models and projections will Anthropogenic climate change differs Tasmania is potentially moderated be available in 2010, and will include from natural change principally compared to mainland Australia, information regarding changes in the through a spectacular increase in primarily because Tasmania is various regions of Tasmania. the rate of global warming, and surrounded by ocean, thus much potentially the frequency and of the state’s daily temperature is CFT projections based on a six intensity of extreme events. The moderated by coastal maritime model mean indicate that average predicted increase in temperatures influences. However, a change in the temperatures will rise consistently over the next century is far greater mean annual temperature of 1° may across Tasmania, particularly in than any variation over the last few be significant in some places, whereas central Tasmania and at higher million years. Therefore, analysis of in another place a change of 2° may elevations. Under the A2 scenario lag times in Quaternary ecosystem not have much effect. In addition, the for 2100, increased summer and response should underpin conceptual incidence of extreme temperature autumn rainfall is likely in the east, models of future change. events may be more important than and increased winter rainfall and the change in mean temperature (e.g. reduced summer rainfall in the west. Potential climate incidence of very hot days). Central Tasmania will have reduced change and its physical rainfall in all seasons. A number of projections of climate effects in Tasmania based on a range of credible Increased CO2 concentrations Climate change trends in Tasmania scenarios for global greenhouse are consistent with global trends, emissions have been undertaken Changes in atmospheric with data showing a rising mean for Tasmania. Hydro Tasmania concentrations of greenhouse gases, annual temperature but less than commissioned CSIRO Marine and land cover and solar radiation all the global and national average rises. Atmospheric Research to undertake impact on the energy budget of the Rising sea levels have also been a high resolution modelling study climate system. Evidence from ice observed in Tasmania, consistent with of Tasmania’s climate in order to core and dendrochronology research national and global trends (Church project likely trends in climate to demonstrates that global emissions and White 2006). The effects of 2040 based on one climate model of greenhouse gases, particularly climate change also encompass (McIntosh et al . 2005). CO2, have increased dramatically altered rainfall patterns, an increase in since pre-industrial times (1750). Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) is droughts, floods, water shortages, and These rates exceed the normal currently being undertaken by the other extreme weather events, along range over the last 650 000 years. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems with changes in ocean temperature, Increasing atmospheric CO2 has also Cooperative Research Centre with currents and chemistry. Several lead to increasing ocean acidification. a range of partners (ACE CRC maps and graphs are provided in 2007). They are producing fine- The current concentration of CO2 this section to demonstrate recent scale projections based on six IPCC in the atmosphere is 380 parts per trends in temperature and rainfall AR4 climate simulation models to million, compared with 280 parts (Figures 1.3-1.6)(Grose et al . 2010). dynamically downscale to a grid per million in pre-industrial times Each graph provides an illustration resolution of 0.1° (approx. 10 km) (Solomon et al . 2007). The current of the trend in each variable across (Corney et al . 2010). High (SRES global emissions trajectory is tracking Tasmania since 1900. Below each

6 Introduction at or near the upper limit of the Temperature 1970s. This is illustrated in Figure 1.3 IPCC suite of projections (Raupach et (Climate Futures for Tasmania Project Australian temperatures have al . 2007), increasing the risk that we 2009 and Australian Water Availability increased by 0.9°C since 1950 will exceed a 2°C rise in global mean Project (AWAP), Jones et al . 2007). (McIntosh et al . 2005), with temperature during this century. significant regional variations. This is Analysis of climate data showing the The increase in CO2 in the slightly higher than the global average trend for average daily minimum atmosphere may lead to effects in increase of 0.76°C. Minimum and daily maximum temperatures soils such as a change in nutrient temperatures have been increasing are illustrated in Figure 1.4 (Climate cycling and a decrease in the at a greater rate than maximum Futures for Tasmania Project 2009 availability of soil nitrogen (Hovenden temperatures (Nicholls 2006). There and AWAP, Jones et al . 2007). It 2008), and changed soil microbial has been a decrease in the number demonstrates a rise in minimum activity and soil water balance of cold days (<15°C) and cold nights temperature across Tasmania. (Leakey et al . 2006). Increased CO2 (<5°C) since 1950. leads to lowered transpiration rates Rainfall An analysis of historical climate data in plants as there is a partial close of identifies that much of Tasmania, leaf stomata, reducing water loss and Drought in Australia has become particularly in the north and east, a lengthening in the growing season more severe, with increased has experienced a warming in in water-limited vegetation (Morgan temperatures and increased annual mean temperature since the et al . 2004). evaporation (Nicholls 2004). South- eastern Australia in the past decade has experienced the lowest rainfall on record, with some areas in the Figure 1 .3 Annual mean temperature anomaly from the 1961-1990 baseline period southern Midlands of Tasmania being mean for Tasmania (blue line) and 11-year moving average (red line) from the the most drought-affected in the Australian High Quality temperature dataset .The map below the plot shows the linear nation until recent drought-breaking trend in mean temperature between 1961 and 2007, the period after the orange line rains in the winter of 2009. on the plot, using 0 .05 ° gridded data (AWAP data cited in Grose et al . 2010) . Since 1970 there have been strong decreases in rainfall across Tasmania, typically around 20 to 40 mm per decade. Most of Tasmania experienced the three driest years on record in 2006-2008.

The trend of decreasing rainfall in Tasmania is illustrated in Figure 1.5 (Climate Futures for Tasmania Project 2009 and AWAP, Jones et al. 2007). The graph also illustrates a change since 1975 whereby there is a lower number of intervening wet years that have rainfall that is well above-average. More recently,

7 northern and eastern Tasmania Storms further south (Leslie and Karoly have experienced long-term rainfall 2007). Climate change is expected to deficits in the last decade, and at affect disturbance regimes, including record levels (Australian Bureau of Snow and frost increases in storm intensity (5 to Meterology 2008). 10%) and/or frequency (including There will be marked reductions in Figure 1.6 illustrates the recent cyclones/hurricanes, high wind snow cover and extent (Hennessy trend of decrease in autumn rain, events, flooding) (Pittock 2003; et al . 2003). The total area of snow particularly in the east of Tasmania Walsh et al . 2004). An increasing cover in Australia is expected to (Climate Futures for Tasmania Project proportion of rain is expected to fall decrease by 14 to 54% by 2020 2009 and AWAP, Jones et al . 2007). in more intense events (20 to 30%), and 30 to 93% by 2050. Frost Although this trend is not dissimilar and large storms are expected to occurrence is expected to decrease to a smaller trend of decrease in be more severe, with higher winds, overall; however temperature is not autumn rain occurring earlier in causing more damage, flooding and the only driver of frosts, changes in the last century, the graph again coastal inundation (Pittock 2003; synoptic circulation and decreased illustrates a change in the variability Walsh et al . 2004). There is no clear cloud cover could lead to increased and character in rainfall, with fewer evidence about regional changes in severity of frosts and changes in their very wet years (or ‘recharge’ years) frequency and movement, but it is timing in some conditions. in autumn rainfall since the 1970s. possible that cyclones may move Anecdotal evidence indicates that there has been a reduction in the amount and duration of snow in the Figure 1 .4 Annual mean daily minimum and daily maximum temperature anomalies Tasmanian mountains in the past few from the 1961-1990 baseline period mean for Tasmania (faint lines) and 11-year decades but historical data is not moving averages (thick lines) from the Australian High Quality temperature dataset . available for Tasmanian snowfields. The maps below the plot shows the linear trend in daily maximum and minimum temperatures between 1961 and 2007, the period after the orange line, using Increased minimum temperatures 0 .05° gridded data (AWAP data cited in Grose et al . 2010) . during winter and early spring are projected for Tasmania, resulting in fewer frost events where this occurs. There may also be a change in the incidence of very low temperature events that can lead to severe frosts. Some areas, where the minimum temperature remains sufficiently low, and where there may be lower cloud cover due to decreased rainfall, could undergo more frequent frost events. These changes will be of ecological significance. The Climate Futures for Tasmania Project is currently undertaking these sorts of analyses, particularly with regard to the potential impacts on agriculture.

8 Introduction Other Terrestrial Effects Figure 1 5. Statewide mean annual total rainfall for Tasmania (blue line) and 11- year moving average (red line) from the Australian High Quality rainfall dataset .The Wind speeds are projected to map below the plot shows the linear trend in total annual rainfall between 1961 increase by a small amount in and 2007, the period after the orange line, using 0 .05 ° gridded data (AWAP data Tasmania, particularly in the cited in Grose et al . 2010) . north-west during winter, where projections imply increases in the monthly mean wind speed of 1.5-2 metres per second, by 2040 (McIntosh et al . 2005). There is likely to be an increase in evaporation, caused by the higher temperatures and increases in wind speed. This will be particularly significant in the north-east, which is predicted to have an annual evaporation increase of about 12% by 2040 (McIntosh et al . 2005). Coupled with changing rainfall patterns, this will impact on water availability.

In areas where there is a decrease in rainfall, there may be an associated Figure 1 .6 Statewide mean autumn total rainfall for Tasmania (blue line) and 11- decrease in relative humidity. A year moving average (red line) from the Australian High Quality rainfall dataset .The historical trend analysis of climate map below the plot shows the linear trend in total autumn rainfall between 1961 data over the period 1973–2007 and 2007, the period after the orange line, using 0 .05 ° gridded data (AWAP data found that decreased relative cited in Grose et al . 2010) . humidity along with increased storminess, and thus lightning strikes, extended dry periods and increased temperature, implies that an increase in fire weather days is likely to occur (Williams et al . 2009). Note that this was a general study without an indication of regional differences, and these trends may not apply to all of Tasmania. The Climate Futures for Tasmania Project is modelling the projected incidence of thunderstorms, lightning and extreme storm events.

9 Decreased rainfall leads to The effects of oceans and part in the development of storm decreased stream flow, and stream ocean currents on terrestrial systems. This is particularly the case gauge sites in Tasmania show a weather systems when cold air from the poles meets 15-30% reduction in stream flow As described further in the section warm air associated with warm over the last 15 years compared regarding the physical marine ocean currents. The interaction to historic records (Resource environment below, the oceans are of these air masses can produce Management and Conservation projected to undergo great change, frontal systems in a process known Division 2008). The decrease in particularly in water temperature as cyclogenesis (Tapper and Hurry stream flow in turn leads to an and changes in ocean currents 1993, Burroughs et al. 1999, Collis increase in water temperature in (Poloczanska et al . 2009). The ocean and Whitaker 2001). small pools. has a major influence on terrestrial weather and climate, with the upper Changes in the physical The amount of run-off may generally marine environment decrease in areas likely to have lower levels of the ocean interacting with rainfall. However the prediction of the lower levels of the atmosphere. Further increases in CO2 will have more severe rainfall events increases Thus the effects of these ocean dramatic consequences for physical the likelihood of those extreme changes on terrestrial weather and chemical stressors of Australian events when the run-off is greatly patterns will be complex and marine systems. The ocean plays increased. This would result in the unpredictable, and they have been a significant role in the absorption water having less benefit for soil factored into CFT modelling (Grose of CO2, and heat - more than 80% hydration and plant growth, as would et al. 2010). of the heat added to the climate system (Solomon et al . 2007), and water passing quickly through the General effects of the ocean on these functions have a significant soil profile (Resource Management terrestrial weather patterns include impact on the physical properties of and Conservation Division 2008). influences on terrestrial temperature, the ocean. Predictions of the effects wind, rainfall and storms. More The CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable on the marine environment are specifically, the warm tropical water Yields Project has modelled climate summarised in Table 1.2. change projections and the impacts of the East Australian Current (EAC) on runoff to 2030 (CSIRO 2009). moving southward down the east Substantial warming has occurred The projected changes vary coast of Australia has the effect in the three oceans surrounding according to the future climate of keeping winter temperatures Australia, particularly off the scenarios used ranging from an especially warm in coastal areas. south-east coast and in the Indian increase of 2% to a decrease in 8% Model projections commonly show Ocean. Waters off the east coast averaged over Tasmania. However a continuing southward extension of of Tasmania have recorded an there is a consensus in the data the EAC into the future. The effect increase in temperature of more there will be a reduction in runoff in of the ocean on wind systems is than 1°C since the 1940s. Global the central highlands extending into evidenced by sea breezes, which climate models predict that the the north, parts of the north-east, are driven by the temperature greatest warming in the Southern the north-west corner of the State, difference between the water and Hemisphere oceans will be in the and King Island, and virtually no areas the land. Rainfall patterns are Tasman Sea, associated with a show an increase in runoff (Freycinet influenced because the warm, moist strengthening of the East Australian is the small exception)(Viney et al. air associated with warm currents Current (EAC), which has increased 2009). increases precipitation. Ocean in strength by 20% since the late currents can also play an important 1970s (Cai 2006).

10 Introduction Warming will not only affect surface Ocean acidity is also increasing in Sea level rise waters, but will also penetrate deep Australian marine waters, particularly Church & White (2006) have shown into the ocean, warming waters in the southern waters surrounding that the rate of global mean sea down to 500m and beyond (Hobday Tasmania. This will continue to level rise accelerated during the 20th et al . 2006). As Table 1.2 shows, increase, and this feature is present century, and there was an increase climate change will also substantially in all IPCC climate model simulations in sea level in Tasmania of 10-20 cm modify other physical variables and is driven by a southward during the last century, including a 14 important for regulating marine migration of the high westerly wind cm rise on the south-east Tasmanian ecosystems including incident solar belt south of Australia. coast (Sharples 2006). The global radiation (through cloud formation), sea level is predicted to continue to winds and mixed layer depth. rise, with a rise of between 18-59 cm by 2100 relative to the 1990 sea level, taking into account only thermal expansion (Solomon et al . 2007). Solomon et al . (2007) warn that further icesheet data may make sea level rise predictions even higher, and the upper value Table 1 .2 Projected changes in physical and chemical characteristics of Australia’s of the predictions should not be marine realm by 2070 from the CSIRO Mk 3 .5 model (Hobday et al . 2006 adapted considered an upper bound. Over from Gordon et al . 2002) . 20% of the Tasmanian coastline will be at risk from sea level rise Projected climate change Physical climate change indicators and more severe storm surges impacts by 2070 associated with climate change Waters around Australia warm (Sharples 2006), which are likely to by 1-2°C, with greatest warming result in inundation and erosion of Sea Surface Temperature in SE Australia/Tasman Sea due to Tasmania’s coast. For many locations strengthening of East Australian Current in Tasmania, a 50 cm sea level rise Temperature at 500 m depth Warming of 0.5-1°C would result in the present one- There will generally be more incident in a-hundred-year storm surge solar radiation on the sea surface in event becoming an annual or more Incident solar radiation Australian waters. The increase will be frequent event by the end of the between 2 and 7 units W m-2 21st century (Church et al . 2008). Almost all areas of Australia will have greater stratification and a shallowing of Mixed layer depth the mixed layer by about 1 m, reducing nutrient inputs from deep waters An increase of 0-1 ms-1 in surface Surface winds winds A general decline in the strength of Surface currents surface currents of between 0-1.2 ms-1 pH A decline in pH by 0.2 units

11 Interaction of Current Stressors to Natural Values with Climate Change 2. Tasmanian natural values are already Fire of severe fire weather days. There impacted by a range of threats and are some apparent changes in the disturbance regimes such as fire, Australia is considered one of the past 20 years in both weather and weeds and disease. Perhaps the most fire-prone countries on earth fire activity that may be indicative greatest uncertainties in projecting (Bradstock et al . 2002), and with of longer term trends. For example, the effects of climate change are warming temperatures in many Hobart weather data indicates that associated with the interaction of parts of the continent it is likely that the number of days in spring with climate change with other stressors. fires will increase in frequency and Forest Fire Danger Index values The effects of climate change will intensity in many regions of Australia of >40 has increased 400% in the potentially exacerbate current through affects on fire weather and decade 1997-2006 compared stressors to natural values, with fuel loads (Cary 2002; Williams et al . to 1987-1996. It is extreme fire synergies, complex interactions 2009). weather days such as these when and cumulative interactions among It is suspected that climate change the majority of the total annual area multiple system components likely influences on bushfires in Tasmania gets burnt. to occur. Changing climate may will have a significant negative In the decade of fire seasons 1991- undermine, or possibly enhance, impact on the natural environment. 2000, unpublished Tasmanian Parks efforts to reduce the effects of Tasmania has stores of carbon in & Wildlife Service records show other types of disturbances such the soils and vegetation in reserve 14 lightning fires were recorded as fire, invasive species, or habitat system and public and private native on reserved land with a total area fragmentation. The influence of forests that collectively amount to burnt of 11,245 ha. In the seven fire changing climate therefore cannot 52% of the state’s land area. One seasons from 2000-2001 onwards be considered merely as “one more of the most significant contributions there were 55 lightning fires and stressor”, but must be considered in that Tasmania can make to the level 160,698 ha of reserved land burnt. every natural resource management of global atmospheric greenhouse Lightning is now the major cause of activity planned and executed. gases is to ensure that natural wildfire in the TWWHA, whereas The largest single current stressor carbon stores are also protected in 1986 it was considered that: interacting with climate change is from catastrophic natural events and “In Tasmania there is no strong the impact of past land clearing and uncontrolled releases of the carbon relationship between thunderstorms associated biodiversity loss. Also, they contain (Tasmanian Climate and fire.” (Bowman and Brown past fishing practices which have Change Office 2008). 1986). depleted some of Tasmania’s fisheries Bushfire weather predictions Some possible trends in bushfires will interact with the effects of conducted for south-eastern and natural diversity that may result climate change and predicted ocean Australia do not predict significant from climate change are: acidification. The impact of invasive change for Hobart and Launceston and pest species (including diseases by 2050 (Lucas et al . 2007). - Greater area burnt annually and pathogens), increased risk of fire However, many climatic factors that by wildfires resulting from an and land use change are discussed could have significant ecological increased frequency of severe below. impacts have not yet been modelled. fire weather days – there is For example drier summers in evidence for this from fire western Tasmania (even with an simulation modelling. increase in total annual rainfall) - Greater area burnt of rainforest, could lead to an increased number alpine vegetation and organic

12 Interaction of Current Stressors to Natural Values with Climate Change soils if there is a continued trend of dry lightning and higher Soil Dryness Index (SDI) values in western Tasmania in the fire season months from November to March. - Reduced inter-fire intervals in Lightning fire-adapted vegetation such strike was as dry forest and heathland, the cause resulting from the increased of this wildfire total area burnt, and increased in the Olga River ignition incidence. This would valley in western favour some plant species and Tasmania – the original disadvantage others (e.g. shrubs ignition source is seen in the lower that are obligate seeders). It left of the image . Until the last few may also lead to changes in decades fire started by lightning was a lead to increased root development habitat structure affecting fauna rare phenomenon in western Tasmania . in weed species and in turn to utilisation. However, lightning is now the major greater resistance to herbicides, - An increase in the frequency cause of wildfire in the Tasmanian such as glyphosate (Ziska and Goins of drought events resulting in Wilderness World Heritage Area, and 2006). Some invasive species will poor post-fire recruitment of there are many fire-killed vegetation be introduced or exotic species that plant species in fire-adapted communities that are now at risk of do not currently occur in an area, vegetation, thus there is likely increased fire frequencies. but others will be native species to be an impact even in drier (Photo: Mick Brown) . that are migrating from their current ecosystems. distribution and are able to exploit - A reduced time period in which the change in conditions. land managers can conduct Invasive species fuel reduction burns in safe Climate change is expected to The potential impacts of invasive conditions. worsen the world’s invasive species species on Australia’s biodiversity were considered at a national Fire management for bushfires and problems (Dukes and Mooney workshop in 2006 (Low 2008). Many their impact on natural values and 1999). It is predicted to impact introduced species have life history protected areas is a complex issue on introduced and indigenous traits that will potentially give them and will become increasingly so in pathogens, parasites, predators and a competitive advantage under new the future, particularly in the face of competitors. Climate change is disturbance regimes associated with competing demands for resources already leading to an intensification climate change. Recent modelling and conflicting priorities. For of natural disturbances, with weeds by CSIRO (Scott et al . 2008) of example, increased pressure for fuel and invasive pests often favoured 41 sleeper weeds (those invasive reduction burns may conflict with by events such as floods and fires. plants that have naturalised in a community concerns about health Stochastic events, such as extreme region but not yet increased their issues related to smoke and other weather events, have the potential population size exponentially) and environmental issues. to suddenly increase weed and pest species extent and impact (US EPA alert weeds (those that are a threat 2008). Increased CO2 levels may to the natural environment) suggest

13 Decreased water flows and increased water temperature can foster algal bloom formation such as this occurrence of filamentous green algae in the Franklin River in the Tasmanian World Heritage Area . Climate change may lead to a greater occurrence of these events, reducing the water quality in our rivers . (Photo: David Spiers) .

that the south-east and south-west increases in biomass levels (US regions of Australia will be most at EPA 2008). River systems are risk from these species. Climate particularly effective at transporting change will result in a general shift weed propagules, and when southward of species, with tropical combined with naturally high rates species shifting the greatest distances of disturbance, are environments (over 1,000 km). Similar outcomes prone to weed invasion. Coastal extension were identified from modelling for ecosystems have naturally high of the 25 weed species regarded as threats disturbance regimes and these native sea urchin in Victoria (Steele et al . 2008). A may be exacerbated by climate (Centrostphanus rodgersii) from number of the species identified change. For example, increased the mainland to Tasmania has in the Victorian study are of direct coastal erosion associated with been associated with increased relevance to Tasmania. Species with storm events and tidal surges could southerly penetration of the warm more a southern distribution may lead to favourable conditions for East Australian Current, making become less of a threat compared weed invasion. Similarly, the likely it favourable habitat and leading to northern species as their potential increase in intense rainfall events to the formation of species-poor range may actually shrink (Steele et and greater periods of little or no barrens where species-rich kelp al . 2008; Scott et al . 2008). rainfall will create erosion-invasion beds once grew (Johnson et al . opportunities in all ecosystems. 2005). This is an example of a native Given potential shifts in the ranges species that has inhabited previously of introduced species and the In some alpine and subantarctic unfavourable habitat. risk that under a warmer climate areas of Australia it has already scenario some species previously been observed that increased considered unsuited to Tasmania temperatures and the associated The native sea urchin (Centrostphanus may thrive, changes to invasive reduction in the severity of winter rodgersii) is moving southwards as species risk assessment procedures weather is allowing animal pest ocean temperatures warm (Photo: will be needed. Habitat preference species to inhabit previously Scott Ling) modelling will need to take into unfavourable habitat (Dunlop account changes to the potential and Brown 2008). Some animal range for serious pests, and this in pest problems that are seemingly turn may result in a range of species worsened by climate change in that are currently imported into or Australia include fox and cat sold within Tasmania being listed as predation on endangered mountain declared weeds. pygmy possums, rabbits, foxes and wild horses invading the Australian Aquatic and semi-aquatic systems Alps, rabbit damage on Macquarie are considered to be at high risk Island, and grasshopper plagues in of potential impact from the locations such as the Tasmanian interaction of climate change and midlands which previously had a invasive species (Bierwagen et al . wetter winter. 2008; Rahel and Olden 2008). Increased temperatures and CO2 Pest invasion into the marine are predicted to favour aquatic environment is also a significant invasive species, in particular through potential issue. The southern range

14 Interaction of Current Stressors to Natural Values with Climate Change Climate change is likely to affect vectors such as mosquitoes, contributing to the transmission of disease in wildlife and other species . (Photo: Tim Rudman)

Wildlife diseases and resulting in more disease pathogens outbreaks. Many diseases are expected Infectious agents and diseases are to become more part of the ecosystem and their lethal or spread introduction and emergence have more readily as contributed to ecosystem stability the earth warms and resilience for millions of years (Epstein 2001). via the processes of natural selection. - Temperatures Disease incidence and prevalence that will result relate to dynamic associations in physiological among the host, the agent of disease, changes within host and the environment. Changes species, altering their or disturbance in any or all of susceptibility / immunity these factors can alter ecosystem to disease. processes and allow the expression - Temperatures that will or intrusion of significant wildlife expand the range and increase diseases (Gillin et al . 2002). the reproductive potential of The Factors contributing to the current rodents, increasing rodent- plant increased rate of disease emergence borne infectious diseases such pathogen of potentially most in the Tasmanian context include as Leptospirosis and Hantavirus concern under climate change climate change, habitat destruction (McCarthy et al . 2001). scenarios in Tasmania is the root- and fragmentation, introduced Thirteen new wildlife diseases have rot soil pathogen Phytophthora animals, urbanisation, change in emerged in Australia since the mid- cinnamomi . It is currently limited in agricultural practices including 1990’s (Rose 2008), representing an Tasmania to localities where soils widespread chemical usage, water unprecedented rate and reflecting warm sufficiently (presently below distribution / availability and a global trend. In the past 12 about 700m elevation) or hold international migration / trade (Rose years Tasmania has experienced an enough moisture for at least part 2008). increase in the rate of emergence of the year (> 600 mm p.a.) for growth and reproduction to occur Future potential impacts of climate of several significant wildlife diseases (Department of Environment and change on wildlife disease expression such as Devil Facial Tumour Disease Heritage 2006). Climate change is include increases in: (DFTD) and Chytridiomycosis that threaten the Tasmanian devil likely to have a mixed effect on the - The distribution and biological and native frogs respectively. There extent of Phytophthora cinnamomi, behaviour of many arthropod has been significant research depending on other factors such vectors of disease such as internationally that links the as soil type and ecophysiologic mosquitoes and ticks (Daszak occurrence of Chytridiomycosis to responses of the plant to increased et al . 2000), increasing disease climate change (Pounds et al . 2006). CO2. The complex host, pathogen transmission. In addition there has been a recent and soil microflora interactions may - Temperature that will favour re-emergence of Psittacine Circoviral change with changing climate to the survival of some pathogens, (Beak and Feather) Disease affecting either exacerbate or reduce disease increasing rates of transmission, Orange-bellied parrots. incidence.

15 Changes in rainfall are likely to decrease the activity of P . cinnamomi in the areas of the state where rainfall may fall below about 600 mm p.a. Higher temperatures may cause disease expression at higher altitudes than at present, particularly in the east of the state, and also in the far south- west from around 650m to over 800m elevation, the current lower boundary for alpine vegetation. Forest types currently too cool for disease development are also likely to experience P . cinnamomi infestation.

Land use change

Clearance and conversion of native vegetation to other land uses Disease caused continues to be the largest single by the root-rot soil pressure on biodiversity values. pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi The onset of climate change and in wet scrub in western Tasmania . the need for human adaptation Currently P . cinnamomi is restricted to responses will see the continuation open vegetation communities where of land use change in areas of soils are sufficiently warmed by the sun high productivity. Similarly, the for it to survive .The cool soils under potential for the growth of the rainforest and wet forest communities biofuel sector has been identified provide refugia for species like white (Australian Government 2009). waratah (Agastachys odorata) that are There is also likely to be an increase eliminated on the adjacent buttongrass in commercial forest plantings as plains by disease . Climate change- carbon sinks. Carbon plantings, induced soil warming potentially place particularly when undertaken as a these refugia at risk and expose component of strategic revegetation numerous other forest species to threat to establish landscape connectivity from this insidious plant pathogen . and using an appropriate mix of (Photo: Tim Rudman) . species, could be beneficial for natural systems, rather than a stressor.

16 Interaction of Current Stressors to Natural Values with Climate Change Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geodiversity and 3. Land Resource Value Tasmania contains a wide variety environmental drivers on earth nivation (collective name for the of rock types, landforms and surface processes, including different processes that occur under soils (its geodiversity). These temperature, rainfall, evapo- a snow patch) are likely to become systems underpin a diverse transpiration and storminess, will further limited in Tasmania. Other suite of ecosystems within a mix vary throughout the State. Climate less extensive systems (including of conservation reserves and change is considered most likely to karst, aeolian and active hillslope productive landscapes. Climate affect those aspects of geodiversity processes) will also be affected, change will affect geomorphic associated with active, or recently with locally important effects on processes, landforms and active, land and soil-forming landforms and geoconservation soil systems directly, and as a processes. Many of these contain a values. consequence of people’s adaptation sedimentary record of geomorphic to the changing environment. response to earlier climatic change Caves and cave fauna that could be useful in refinement of Key geomorphic systems most likely local prediction of what is to come. Caves are very sensitive to changes in to be affected by climate change are Sea level rise will critically affect the temperatures, rainfall and hydrology . fluvial (rivers, lakes and wetlands) coastal fringe and estuaries. Alpine A range of cave fauna including cave and coastal/estuarine systems geomorphic processes of solifluction, crickets and cave spiders, and glow (particularly soft, sandy coasts). The patterned ground, alpine lunettes, worms, may be vulnerable to potential potential impact of climate change impacts . (Photos: Rolan Eberhard) . on these systems and key values is discussed in more detail in Chapter 4 and Chapter 6 respectively. The effects of important

17 Soils form the critical link between Both of these response patterns an important role in regulating landforms and vegetation, and are subject to varying lag times catchment runoff and supporting control production of surface before the effects of climate change natural ecosystems within runoff. A wide range of soils reflects become apparent. Whilst the erosion conservation reserves. Extensive Tasmania’s high geodiversity and of soft coasts is likely to be almost peatlands in central and western will be variably affected by climate instantaneous following sea level rise, Tasmania are one of Tasmania’s change, according to their location the geomorphic effects of reduced largest terrestrial carbon stores. and inherent resilience. runoff in river systems is likely to be In other areas certain more fertile buffered more strongly, particularly The future distribution of vegetation soil types have been targeted for where long-lived, resilient vegetation communities will also be controlled agricultural development – the deep stabilises stream banks. by the response of geomorphic and ferrosols (including deep basalt soil processes to climate change. Knowledge of key earth surface soils) of the north and north-west Conversely, direct effects of climate processes currently active in form the basis of highly productive change on vegetation will alter Tasmania allows us to predict intensive vegetable production. rates of erosion and deposition in which systems are likely to be Where vegetation clearance was geomorphic systems. subject to incremental rather than relatively easy, less robust soils (e.g. critical, threshold-based change, and dermosols, sodosols and tenosols) Geoconservation values, including which are likely to respond with have supported extensive grazing sensitive, rare or outstanding examples minimal lag times. This will allow the in the Midlands and south-east. of landforms and soils, will also be estimation of resilience of various These are now being progressively variably threatened. Surficial deposits land systems to climate change, and more heavily utilised under irrigated and other sediments which contain the development of appropriate agriculture. Examples of these soil long-term environmental records of strategies for adaptation. types surviving under a natural past climate change (e.g. peatlands, vegetation cover are now relatively wetlands, lunettes, river terraces, cave Key values scarce. and macrofossil deposits) will require special management. Tasmania contains considerable Tasmania has a significantly greater climate, landscape and geological proportion of its land surface Geomorphic systems in Tasmania are diversity. This diversity is reflected managed primarily for nature likely to respond to climate change in a wide range of soils: shallow conservation than most other in two ways: organosols, robust basaltic soils, jurisdictions. Natural soils in these 1. incremental change - gradually wind-blown sands, and easily areas are intrinsically valuable, increasing (or decreasing) rates degraded sodic duplex soils. Each providing a critical link between of erosion and sedimentation, soil type is a reflection of its parent natural physical and biological for example the gradual erosion material, position in the landscape systems. of soft coasts in response to sea and age. Natural soils provide valuable level rise; and/or As with other elements of ecosystem services, controlling 2. sudden change upon crossing of geodiversity, Tasmania is fortunate vegetation health, and moderating ‘geomorphic thresholds’ such as in having a well preserved suite of infiltration and runoff. Tasmania’s the erosive response of rivers to soils remaining in essentially natural domestic, agricultural and catastrophic loss of vegetation condition, particularly in the centre, industrial water catchments and soil in catchments (e.g. west and north-east. These play (including extensive hydro-electric through wildfire)

18 Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geodiversity and Land Resource Values developments) critically rely on in maintaining the runoff generating Management of fire will be critical an adequate quantity and quality capacity of many catchments in buttongrass moorland areas, for of runoff, generally from reserved important for hydro-electricity both maintaining carbon stores lands. Soils are important controls generation. They are unusual soil and runoff characteristics. Erosion, on runoff, particularly alpine and systems, in that whilst decayed sediment transport and deposition buttongrass moorlands, where buttongrass vegetation has provided in key western Tasmanian rivers and extensive organosols moderate high the main carbon source for these estuaries is primarily controlled by and often intense rainfall. extensive organosols, they are also the health of organosols in these highly flammable. It is not unusual catchments. Additionally, natural soils provide for the soils themselves to burn, benchmarks for condition Sphagnum peatlands cover an or rapidly oxidise, during bushfires. assessment in productive landscapes. extensive area of the Central Preliminary research suggests that These will become increasingly Highlands, and also play an organosols are currently at the important as we seek to separate important role in moderating runoff climatic extent of their range, and the effects of climate change from characteristics. Many of the state’s that processes of deposition and those of productive land uses on soil eastern hydro-electric developments oxidation of organic materials are condition. rely on water from these catchments, delicately balanced (Whinam and as will proposed storages for Hope 2005). Impacts on key drivers Midlands irrigation projects. It is difficult to predict the potential As with similar areas in the NSW Management of natural soils will effects of climate change on soil Snowy Mountains, and Victoria’s become increasingly important moisture and surface runoff. Bogong High Plains, management under climate change. Tasmania’s However, the seasonality of changes of peatlands will play a critical role natural soils contain a large (but as will play an important role in in both nature conservation and yet unquantified) amount of organic determining the vulnerability of water production. These flammable carbon, sequestered over much soils to climate change. The CSIRO soils will also come under increasing of the Quaternary. Whilst parts of Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project risk from fire as climate change upland Tasmania were swept clean has modelled climate change progresses, as evidenced by the 2003 of soil in Quaternary glacial periods, projections and the impacts on and 2006 bushfires in Kosciuszko unglaciated areas have maintained runoff to 2030 (CSIRO 2009). and Namadgi National Parks (Hope varying covers of natural vegetation, The data indicate that western et al . 2005). in some places building significant Tasmania will have decreased runoff carbon stores. Soil carbon storage is as will much of the north-east, with Lowland peatlands are found in most concentrated under relatively increases along parts of the east many coastal locations, and are also stable ecosystems, such as old forests coast and in parts of inland eastern being increasingly threatened by and peatlands. These systems are Tasmania. Indirect impacts on soils fire. In 2007 a particularly extensive common in western Tasmania, at are also possible. For example, the fire in Lavinia State Reserve (King varying elevations, due to the cool, frequency and intensity of bushfires Island) burnt up to 2 metres of peat wet and relatively reliable climate. and peat fires has increased in from the margins of an extensive recent years, and have the potential Buttongrass moorlands (found coast paperbark swamp, following to increase further, as average and generally in the west and south- dessication of the soil. It is likely that extreme temperatures rise. west) are important terrestrial similar events will increase under carbon stores. They are also critical climate change scenarios.

19 Peat destruction from wildfire on King Island. Lavinia State Reserve had two wildfires within six years, destroying peat that was metres thick and thousands of years old .This area was originally under Melaleuca ericifolia scrub . (Photo: Richard Schahinger) .

Soil carbon and soil biodiversity are inextricably linked . The carbon cycle is driven by biological processes and biological processes are driven by soil carbon . Increased drying caused by climate change may interrupt these Soil organic cycles . If these cycles are interrupted carbon there is a risk of loss of groundcover caused by over-grazing or natural Organic carbon declines in plant viability . Loss of is the link between groundcover exposes the soil to erosion the chemical, physical and Peat by wind and water . Soil carbon is fires biological properties of soil, varying quickly lost to erosion by wind as it with soil type and land use. is amongst the lighter soil fractions The frequency and intensity of and is easily blown away . Erosion wildfires is likely to increase in the Drought conditions contribute to by water strips topsoil where the wet sclerophyll forests of eastern a decline in soil organic carbon greatest concentration of soil carbon is and northern Tasmania. Many through loss of groundcover and/ found . Maintenance of groundcover is of these are mixed forests with or loss of perenniality. Bare ground therefore critical to protection of rainforest understorey, and in some is susceptible to erosion by wind or our soil resources . Having cases they have not burned for water. a thick soil layer centuries. Soil carbon stored under There is a direct relationship stuck to roots (the these forests is also at risk from fire. between soil carbon and soil rhizosphere) is Regeneration of these forest types structure. Land use practices or an indicator following fire has also been linked to climate-induced responses that of a healthy significant decreases in surface runoff negatively impact on soil carbon soil biology . and streamflow. This will affect fluvial may negatively impact on soil (Photo: processes, and reduce the availability structure. These include loss of Declan of water for human use. groundcover, solarisation of the soil McDonald) . An extensive assessment of soil (due to loss of groundcover) with condition in Tasmania has recently damage to the soil ecosystem, and Salinity been completed for Tasmania (Kidd reduced infiltration of water due Given the et al . 2009). This work established to an increase in water repellency importance of benchmark values for all major soil (hydrophobicity). local groundwater classifications under a range of land flow systems to salinity uses. Climate change effects that expression in Tasmania, strategies to impact on soil carbon or microbial address groundwater levels are most levels are of potential economic likely to positively address this risk. concern. Such strategies include large-scale revegetation. However, for large- scale revegetation to be effective it must be planned and sited very

20 Potential Impact on Tasmania’s Geodiversity and Land Resource Values Native pastures in the Midlands during the recent drought . Extreme rainfall events, exacerbated by drought, can lead to increased runoff, soil erosion and mudslides .These may become more frequent in the future . (Photo: Louise Gilfedder) .

carefully erosion contains a In parts of South Australia, dropping if it is not high proportion of groundwater levels are exposing ASS to exacerbate organic carbon. This is due to oxidation with the consequent reductions in water yield and to the higher levels of soil carbon in release of sulfuric acid into the consequent knock-on environmental the upper soil layers and its relative environment. The potential for impacts (Campbell 2008). lightness. Soil lost to water erosion this exists wherever ASS exist in is rapidly transported into waterways Tasmania. Areas of particular risk Climate change impacts on soil where it contributes to turbidity and include many Ramsar wetlands. salinity will be direct and indirect, and sedimentation of waterways. Loss of Water extractions from rivers and will relate to: groundcover on sodic soils renders creeks that supply coastal wetlands - Windblown salts of oceanic them vulnerable to dispersion and will need careful management. origin suspension in water bodies. Drying landscapes due to climate - Salt deposits of geological origins change may increase the drying of - Irrigation Acid sulphate soils lakes and wetlands, which could cause - Land clearing Issues relating to the occurrence the exposure of previously waterlogged - Lower rainfall and management of acid sulphate and harmless acid sulfate soils . - Natural saline discharge patterns soils are currently being investigated Oxidation of acid in Tasmania. This work is showing sulfate soils can Erosion and sedimentation that acid sulphate soils (ASS) are lead to the Soil formation rates are highly more widely spread than previously formation variable but are in the order of <0.5 anticipated. and Mg/Ha/yr from bedrock such as release Climate change impacts on acid basalt (Edwards 1993). of sulphate soils will be direct and sulfuric Climate change impacts on soil indirect and will relate to: acid . erosion will be direct and indirect, - Acid sediments of geological The and will relate to: origins release of - Changes in land use - Developments in coastal significant - Increased rainfall intensity locations quantities of - Loss of groundcover due to - Increased drainage of agricultural acid can rapidly lower drought land, in particular dairying in the pH values of soil and drainage water . - Increased windstorm intensity north and north-west of the If left untreated this can result in a - Exposure of sodic soils state range of environmental, engineering, - Loss of riparian vegetation - Falling groundwater levels infrastructure and health related Continued or sustained reduction Increased development pressures impacts . Increased monitoring of in annual rainfall, particularly in the on the coastal zone may result in wetlands likely to contain acid sulfate southern part of the state will have an expansion of urban footprints soils is required in drying landscapes . two main impacts on soil erosion. into areas with acid sulphate soils. (photo: Declan McDonald) . Loss of groundcover caused by Exposed or excavated ASS may drought or overgrazing may bare the leach strong acids into waterways soil and increase the risk of erosion with toxic impacts on aquatic life and by wind or water. Soil lost to wind riparian vegetation.

21 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems 4. The Fourth Assessment Report impacts and the effects of climate Tasmania’s freshwater biophysical of the Intergovernmental Panel change may be most strongly felt in values have been compiled into on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) lotic systems, producing threshold the Conservation of Freshwater identified that inland aquatic responses that each stress alone Ecosystem Values (CFEV) database, freshwater ecosystems are highly would not produce (CCSP 2009). and this provides a reference vulnerable to the impacts of There are extensive areas within point from which priority-based climate change, largely through the reserve system and headwater management and conservation changes in hydrology from changed areas that still contain largely intact decisions on freshwater ecosystems precipitation (Kundzewicz et al . and representative examples of can be developed. 2007). Coastal wetlands have been Tasmania’s freshwater environments. identified as particularly vulnerable Streams and rivers (lotic In Tasmania warmer temperatures, to the effects of sea level rise, environments) increased wind and changing rainfall and this in turn impacts on their patterns are projected to impact Rivers are distinct environments carbon storage capacity. IPCC AR4 on water availability at a time when that connect parts of the landscape also identified that as a result of much of Tasmania has already and perform a range of different reduced precipitation and increased experienced an extended period of biophysical functions. In highly altered evaporation, water security problems drought (Tasmanian Climate Change landscapes, such as agricultural in southern and eastern Australia are Office 2008). Significant variations in regions, rivers and associated projected to intensify by 2030. the pattern and location of rainfall riparian corridors may be the only Tasmania’s freshwater environments over time will have a major impact remaining areas providing some are underpinned by a diversity of on sensitive ecosystems, particularly form of ecological function. There biophysical processes, functions freshwater ecosystems. are approximately 157,000 km of and values. Geological structures, rivers in Tasmania of which 21% are geomorphic processes and Key values considered to have a high to very controls, hydrological processes, high Integrated Conservation Value riparian and aquatic vegetation, Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems (DPIW 2008a). Fifty-two percent of fish and macroinvertebrates contain an extensive network the total length of Tasmanian rivers are some of the more readily of rivers, streams and wetland occurs in reserves within the state. identifiable components that make environments, which also include The remaining stream length occurs up freshwater ecosystems. These lakes, swamps and tarns. Many in other public land (18%) and other can be found in both lentic (lake, of these ecosystems have private land (30%). Whilst there is pond and swamp) environments internationally and nationally a relatively high proportion of river and lotic (stream, river and spring) significant scientific and biological length in reserves, it should be noted environments. values, with 10 Ramsar and 86 that a number of the reserved areas wetlands listed on the national cover only part of a river’s length. In many parts of Tasmania, land use Directory of Important Wetlands activities have already impacted upon of Australia (DIWA). A number The highly sinuous lowland streams these environments significantly. of the Ramsar wetlands are part south of Macquarie Harbour and Flow regimes have been changed, of the estuarine component of meandering and glacially controlled vegetation cleared, river channels rivers, and several DIWA wetlands rivers on the Central Plateau and altered, wetlands converted, water occur within rivers (Blackhall et al . Midlands broadwater sequences quality reduced and habitat lost. The 1996) and are therefore affected by represent important and rare interaction between these human the health of those river systems. examples of Tasmania’s fluvial

22 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems systems. Entire, pristine catchments (Kirkpatrick and Tyler 1988). waterbodies (DPIW 2008a). The (such as the New and Davey Rivers) waterbodies include Lake St. Clair, Wetlands provide important are very rare in south-eastern the deepest lake in Australia, and biophysical functions and habitat Australia. Their geomorphological Australia’s largest natural permanent within Tasmania’s landscape. They and biological importance waterbody, Great Lake. Fifty-five also provide an indication of past contributes to the international percent of the area of waterbodies climatic conditions, such as the significance of the Tasmanian occurs in reserves. The remaining presence of aeolian features that Wilderness World Heritage Area. area of waterbodies occurs on other formed in colder, drier climates. public land (44%) and other private Many fluvial landforms preserve As with rivers they occur across a land (1%). Freshwater environments evidence of catchment responses to wide range of environments and (rivers, wetlands, lakes, karst) provide past, natural climatic variations over their condition reflects the different habitat for at least 123 threatened the last 2 million years. Meander land uses and pressures. The CFEV flora species and 103 threatened cutoffs and wetlands preserve database lists 20,597 wetlands that fauna species (DPIW 2008b). This long pollen records, providing cover an area of 206,800 ha (based includes 9 flora species and 12 fauna palaeobotanical information. Terrace on LIST and TASVEG data sources) species listed on the EPBC Act. flights, alluvial fans, and sediments in Tasmania (DPIW 2008a). Whilst stored in subsurface karstic stream this number includes anthropogenic The highland aquatic habitats of systems may be studied to interpret wetlands and minor depressions, it western Tasmania, including an relationships between climate and does reflect the relative importance array of lakes, tarns, streams and Earth surface processes throughout wetlands play across Tasmanian rivers, represent a highly diverse the Quaternary. Examples include landscapes. assemblage of limnological and correlation of dated, relict meander biological environments with few Almost 60% of the wetlands scrolls preserved on terraces, and analogues elsewhere in Australia identified in CFEV are regarded as the calibre of relict terrace and fan (Fulton et al . 1993; Ponder et having a high to very high Integrated sediments with past streamflow al . 1993). A high proportion of Conservation Value which infers and sediment dynamics. Knowledge Tasmania’s wetlands occur on the they may contain rare biological of the magnitude and frequency Central Plateau, and significant parts or physical characteristics, special of these responses may be used of that region can be regarded as values or both. Sixty percent of to underpin predictions of future being in near pristine condition. the wetlands occur in reserves. The catchment responses under climate Conservation priorities for the remaining wetlands occur on other change scenarios. Central Highlands include a number private land (26%) and other public of unique freshwater values such as land (14%). Tasmania’s wetlands Wetlands and lakes (lentic threatened Galaxias and Paragalaxias contain a high proportion of environments) species and Great Lake aquatic endemic species (Bowling et al . 1993; fauna. The Eastern half of the Plateau Tasmania is characterised by high Kirkpatrick and Tyler 1988), as well has some of the most distinct precipitation that makes it rich as a disproportionate percentage of wetland communities in Tasmania in freshwater environments, with Tasmania’s flowering plant species (Kirkpatrick and Harwood 1983), thousands of lakes and tarns in the (Kirkpatrick and Harris 1999). and high levels of endemism (flora mountainous west, and deflation and invertebrates, including aquatic basins in the Midlands and the east Waterbodies in Tasmania, which species). The crustacean, insect and associated with past glaciations and include lakes and tarns, cover fish communities of Great Lake the intervening periods of aridity 137,000 ha representing 1,346

23 The western highlands of Tasmania contain an array of lakes, tarns, streams and rivers that represent a highly diverse and unique assemblage of limnological and biological environments .These alpine tarns and lakes are highly vulnerable to decreased rainfall and increased temperatures . (Photo: Tom Bennett) .

in areas health of freshwater systems under that a changing climate scenario will be have water quantity and temperature been change. Water quantity influences protected. a range of potential issues: water Relationships quality, water temperature, between maintenance of habitat, channel- rainfall and forming and maintenance processes, evapo-transpiration ecological disturbance processes vary considerably and sustaining aquatic and riparian across the state. Combined flora and fauna. Rainfall elasticity contain with vegetation, these factors is about 2-3.5, that is, a 10% a substantial control patterns of erosion reduction in rainfall equates to a endemic and threatened element and sediment flux throughout 20-30% decrease in flows (Chiew (Australian Natural Resources Atlas catchments, and the corresponding 2007 and 2009). Stream gauge http://www.anra.gov.au). form of river channels (Jerie et al . sites in Tasmania show a 15-30% 2003). For many parts of Tasmania, reduction in stream flow over the North-west Tasmania has extensive the potential impacts of climate last 15 years compared to historic swamp forests, and also nationally change on freshwater ecosystems records. Changes in seasonal significant swamps that have need to be considered in the patterns will also alter the hydrologic developed on karst landscape context of the many pressures they characteristics of aquatic systems. drainage features, such as sinkholes currently experience. Whilst there may be an overall or dolines. These subterranean decline in annual streamflows under wetlands support a diverse fauna In temperate Tasmania, the effects of drier climate scenarios, a more that is often distinct from that of climate change on rainfall patterns seasonal pattern may lead to larger surface waters. Twelve threatened and evapo-transpiration and the and more damaging flows in certain fauna species are recorded for karst flow on effect for fire and vegetation times of the year. environments (DPIW 2008b). Poljes communities have the potential are large karstic depressions up to to significantly alter the form and Climate change impacts on several kilometres across, and the processes of fluvial systems (Brierley inland aquatic ecosystems will poljes at Mole Creek and Dismal and Fryirs 2005). Effects will be range from the direct effects Swamp are the best developed in most strongly observed in rates of the rise in temperature and Australia. of hillslope erosion, channel bed CO2 concentration to indirect and bank erosion (and potentially effects through alterations in Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems contraction), and deposition rates hydrology resulting from changes in are considered to be one of the on floodplains and in estuaries. precipitation (Cubasch et al . 2001; most vulnerable to climate change, Key fluvial system drivers will vary Lemke et al . 2007; Meehl et al . with some of the potential changes considerably across Tasmania in 2007). Changes in physical climate shown in Table 4.1. They have played response to climate change, because and hydrology will also be strongly a central role in the development of of the diverse nature of fluvial coupled with terrestrial ecosystems, the island from the time of European landscapes and spatial differences in which both respond to and arrival and consequently have average and instantaneous runoff. modulate hydro-climatic fluxes and experienced significant change, even states (Lettenmaier et al . 2008). The key issues for the ecological

24 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems The potential effects resulting from unconnected pools of water. The inflow and higher evaporation rates, decreased water flows include increased water temperature in turn and an increased risk of acid sulphate a decline in water quality and could foster algal bloom formation. soils exposed through the drying of elevated water temperature, and There may also be an increase in lakes and wetlands. the development of small, warm, salinity due to lack of freshwater

Table 4 .1 Biophysical processes in freshwater ecosystems that are likely to be impacted by climate change . Physical climate Potential impact change indicator Increased water temperatures, reductions in dissolved oxygen levels Increased growth in freshwater algae Areas of high water temperature may become a barrier to migration for some aquatic species. Conditions favour aquatic weeds and some introduced fauna. Nuisance plant growth (native/ non-native) will be encouraged. Higher temperatures Loss of plant and animal species with narrow temperature ranges (stenothermic); Domination by species with broad temperature ranges (eurythermic) Increased incidence of algal blooms associated with increased water temperatures Increased temperature combined with reduced rainfall will affect freshwater ecosystems by impacting on habitat for freshwater crayfish and native fish species Changes in hydrology, species composition and ecological productivity Reduced s tream flow, reduced capacity to transport sediment and other channel material. A reduction in stream capacity to transport sediment, leading to bed aggradation and bank erosion. Insufficient flows to support particular species, including preventing aquatic species from migrating to more suitable habitat. Decreased summer rain and increased temperatures could change some streams from Changes in permanent to ephemeral or increase the ephemerality of ephemeral streams. precipitation Increased summer rains will impact on sedimentation rates and affect freshwater habitat quality Seasonal patterns of wetland species disrupted Reductions in runoff Increased exposure to predators when aquatic organisms are confined to pools. Increased evaporation, leading to drying out of wetlands, increased salinity, and exposure of acid sulphate soils Intense, seasonal rainfall events that lead to channel and stream bank erosion and flushing of organic material and woody debris from the stream. Increased Net Primary Productivity, which may lead to negative impacts such as increased algal Increased CO2 blooms Sea level rise Coastal wetlands are susceptible to inundation or increased salinity through saltwater intrusion Land use change and water consumption patterns will intensify climate change impacts on Interactive effects wetlands and rivers.

25 Changes in precipitation and temperature will impact on the hydrology, species composition and ecological productivity of Tasmania’s rivers, particularly in periods of low flow. Reduced stream flow may lead to a reduced capacity to transport sediment and other channel material, and extreme rainfall events may lead to channel and stream bank erosion . (Photo: Louise Gilfedder) .

Impacts on key drivers Increased water temperature is a problem which will be compounded Streams and rivers (lotic by increasing temperature due environments) to climate change, and water temperatures may rise to lethal Reductions in streamflow will be levels for a number of organisms. associated largely influenced by the two key Pools are susceptible to warm water disturbance drivers - changes in rainfall patterns temperatures, which in turn leads to can be an important and the need to develop water a drop in dissolved oxygen. Whilst germination trigger. resources as a consequence of a number of Tasmania’s native fish reductions in rainfall. The impacts of Rainfall patterns are likely to become have relatively wide temperature these two drivers can be interrelated more seasonal, and when it does tolerances, other species, such as the and complex. Stream regulation rain, rainfall is likely to be more giant freshwater crayfish require a and abstractions may compound intense (CSIRO 2007; Steffen et stable thermal regime of relatively the impacts of climate change by al . 2009). A change in the flood low water temperature (Threatened further limiting the amount of flows regime, with a reduction in annual Species Section 2006). available for the environment. Dams floods, but an increase in frequency and other physical barriers may limit The impact of sediments, nutrients of larger floods will alter disturbance the capacity of aquatic species to and pollutants would be enhanced regimes, affecting important migrate to more suitable habitats in these shallow water situations, germination triggers. More frequent, if, for example, water temperatures especially where rivers are reduced larger floods will impact on aquatic exceed tolerance levels. to a series of disconnected pools. habitats by scouring the streambed, This, combined with the threat of displacing woody debris, and flushing There is uncertainty about future elevated temperatures, may result organic matter downstream (Poff et rainfall patterns at a national scale in highly stressed habitat conditions al . 2002). Sediments derived from (Steffen et al . 2009) and projections favouring species with very wide streambank erosion and hillslopes suggest rainfall patterns across tolerances and disadvantaging more can cover streambeds, removing Tasmania will vary on a regional sensitive species. habitat and smothering the eggs basis. Increased rainfall has been of a number of aquatic organisms projected for the west and central A prolonged or regular reduction (Prosser et al . 1999). An increase areas, and a reduction in the in stream flows would lead to in the frequency of more intense north-east by 2040 (McIntosh et the stream channel becoming floods will make it very difficult for al . 2005). The Climate Futures for disconnected from its floodplain. habitat to recover and there may be Tasmania Project is currently deriving Locally this will affect riparian local extinctions of aquatic species. new climate projections, including vegetation as groundwater levels It is important to note that climate regional projections, due to be decline, causing riparian vegetation change may have other less obvious released in 2010. Reductions in to either shift or in worst case impacts that will contribute to higher rainfall and runoff have the potential scenarios to be lost. This in turn rates of erosion, including changes to reduce the amount of suitable will remove habitat, sources of to riparian plant canopies, litter habitat available for aquatic species organic material and lead to cover, soil moisture (and therefore as streamflows decline and parts of streambank erosion. Overbank infiltration and runoff ratios), soil river systems are either reduced to flows are important for replenishing erodibility due to decreases in pools or dry up. the floodplain and wetlands with organic matter and changes in land water and organic material, and the use (Kundzewicz et al . 2007).

26 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems Tasmania has a rich freshwater crayfish fauna with approximately 37 species in 4 genera . The burrowing crayfish of the genus Engaeus are very specialised crayfish living in tunnel systems in muddy banks, seepages and peaty areas. Burnie burrowing crayfish (Engaeus yabbimunna) (Photo: Niall Doran) .

Wetlands and lakes (lentic lake levels. Riparian vegetation environments) surrounding the lakes will die back if lake levels and Water quantity and temperature associated groundwater are the key climate change drivers drop for extended that will potentially impact on periods of time. fluvial systems, wetlands and lakes. Wetlands receive water from three Tasmania has main sources (precipitation, surface important flow and groundwater), and climate coastal wetland change will affect these processes communities, in different ways (Table 4.1). particularly in Wetlands that rely on precipitation the Tasmanian for water may be the most affected Wilderness by changing rainfall patterns, whilst WHA. Freshwater those reliant on groundwater may wetlands close be the most resilient (Poff et al . to sea level are 2002). In Tasmania, many wetlands at risk from saline receive water from both rainfall and groundwater intrusion groundwater, and understanding the and saltwater intrusion balance between these two sources through the breaching of barrier will be crucial to predicting the systems and sandbars (Steffen et impact of climate change. Wetlands al . 2009). Nine of Tasmania’s ten linked in some way to river channels Ramsar wetlands of international will be directly affected by changes importance are in coastal and Anecdotal evidence suggests that in the flow regimes for those rivers. estuarine environments, and thus changes in the amount and timing Declining streamflows and longer are at risk of sea level rise, saltwater of rain, and increased evaporation periods between overbank flows intrusion into freshwater systems, have led to wetlands experiencing may lead to increased dry periods and the effects of storm surges. extended dry periods. The driest for wetlands. The more intense Similarly, the Directory of Important parts of Tasmania have extensive floods may scour the bed of the Wetlands in Australia (DIWA) lists wetlands, including saline lakes, but wetland and flush organic matter 89 nationally significant wetlands after two centuries of settlement and organisms out of the wetland. in Tasmania (Blackhall 1996) and and agriculture many have been analysis of types and risks indicates drained or inundated (Fensham and Tasmania’s lakes and their tributaries that 55 of these are coastal and Kirkpatrick 1989). Wetlands in the provide habitat for many aquatic are at risk of inundation. Almost Midlands and south-east have been species, including endemic fish such 40% of the area of the TASVEG observed to fill quickly following as saddled and golden galaxias and communities that, when combined, intense rainfall events, but then the Arthurs, Great Lake, western represent Tasmania’s freshwater experience extended dry periods and Shannon paragalaxias. A wetlands, are at less than 5m through below average rainfall number of these lakes are already elevation, and thus vulnerable to periods. Some of the wetlands in in use for hydro generation and storm surges with predicted sea the Midlands have experienced dry may come under further pressure if level rise. periods of up to 30 years or more. declining rainfall significantly reduces Some wetlands in the east of

27 Wetlands are one of the ecosystem types predicted to be highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change . (Photo: Oberon Carter) .

great-crested grebe and also have the potential to significantly it has been dry for most impact on karstic features. of the period since the A major issue for the future 1990’s. It is not known if this management of Tasmanian wetland species continues to breed and freshwater aquatic systems in Tasmania (S. Blackhall pers under increasing pressure from com. 2009). Birds retreat from dry climate change and ongoing drought inland wetlands to coastal estuarine is how to balance the environmental systems but these are increasingly and social values of water Tasmania more saline, and may not be valuable consumption. For example, farmers have refuges in the future. changed from a pattern of winter- and irrigators are under increasing wet and summer-dry to being dry The deep permanent freshwater pressure to reduce their water use for extended periods (S. Blackhall marshes on the West Coast and King and to maintain environmental flows pers com.). Island are also important Tasmanian in rivers, whilst natural wetland wetland systems. The Lavinia and freshwater aquatic ecosystems Increased water temperatures Marshes on King Island have suffered are under pressure from reduced in both wetland and lacustrine two recent catastrophic fires in quick effective precipitation. Changes to environments, especially when succession (2001 and 2007), with the way that water is transferred combined with reduced water up to two metres of irreplaceable within and between catchments levels, will affect a range of aquatic peat soils destroyed over large through irrigation schemes will have species where thresholds are areas. This is likely to change local the potential to both directly and exceeded. Lakes in Tasmania are hydrology and lead to long term indirectly affect the biophysical health characterised by different types of impacts to the associated wetlands and condition of rivers, lakes and thermal stratification, and increasing (RMC 2007). These fires were the wetlands. temperatures and associated result of dry lightning strikes, which The green and gold frog (Litoria changes to the warming and cooling evidence suggests are occurring raniformis) is threatened in Tasmania . processes of those lakes may more frequently in Tasmania, along Chytridiomycosis is an infectious alter the timing and nature of that with unseasonal dry periods that had disease of amphibians, and it has been stratification. allowed the marshes to dry out. linked to dramatic population declines The seasonal migration patterns of Tasmania’s swamp forests, with or even extinctions of amphibian wetland species are predicted to almost 40% of the mapped extent of species in many countries, including be interrupted by climate change, coast paperbark (Melaleuca ericifolia) Australia. There has been significant and there is already evidence in swamp forest below 5m elevation, research internationally that links Tasmania of this phenomenon. The are another freshwater ecosystem the occurrence of Chytridiomycosis evaporation of wetlands has had a that will be potentially affected by to climate change . (Photo: significant impact on migratory birds. climate change and associated sea DPIPWE Collection) . There is reduced waterbird breeding level rise. These swamp forests are activity and success because adults vulnerable to salty groundwater fail to breed or water evaporates intrusion and storm surges, resulting before young reach the flying stage. from predicted sea level rises. The For example, Lake Dulverton is the changes in hydrology that will be only known breeding site of the brought about by climate change

28 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s 5. Terrestrial Biodiversity Biodiversity is important to the been recently produced (Steffen et al . ecosystem levels that are consistent economic and cultural welfare of 2009). It identified iconic natural areas with a climate signal but it is very Tasmania. The state abounds in rich such as south-west Western Australia, difficult to attribute these changes wildlife and iconic species such as the Australian Alps, the Queensland to climate change in the absence of the Tasmanian devil, the bluegum Wet tropics and Kakadu wetlands as long-term studies. that is the state’s floral emblem, and highly vulnerable to climate change. The aim of this section is to identify the deciduous beech that brings The report provides an excellent key vulnerabilities of Tasmanian tourists and photographers to our overview of how climate change has terrestrial biodiversity to climate state every autumn. Biodiversity is already affected Australia’s biodiversity change. Potential impacts at the the diversity of species, populations, and how it may potentially affect it major ecosystem level may be genes, plant and animal communities in the future. A national assessment on ecosystem services rather and ecosystems. Biodiversity of the impact of climate change on than the natural values per se, and provides stability and productivity marine systems, including marine these interactions with physical of our natural systems (Millennium biodiversity, has also been undertaken and ecosystem processes are not Ecosystem Assessment 2005), (Hobday et al . 2006). addressed in detail. and is an important “life support This preliminary assessment of system” for the planet. It underpins the potential impact of climate ecological processes that form the Key values change on Tasmania’s terrestrial environment on which all organisms biodiversity is undertaken at the Tasmania has globally and nationally depend, providing ecosystem major ecosystem level, and the significant natural values, which services such as clean air and water, potential impact on species is also are also culturally and scientifically and the food and fibres on which we considered. This assessment has important. Globally significant are reliant. been undertaken by considering the ecosystems in Tasmania include The Fourth Assessment Report impact of the key drivers (increased alpine communities, temperate of the Intergovernmental Panel on CO2, changed temperature and rainforests and tall eucalypt forests, Climate Change (IPCC AR4 2007) precipitation, and extreme events) buttongrass moorlands, high- concluded that climate change will on basic ecological and biological energy coastal systems (Balmer have impacts on many aspects of responses of species and ecosystems. et al . 2004) and the Port Davey biodiversity including impacts on This was done with the knowledge marine and estuarine ecosystem ecosystems, their component species that the responses of species and (Edgar et al . 2007) (see Chapters and associated genetic diversity, and ecosystems may be different due to 3 and 6). A number of areas on ecological interactions. It also current and future changes in the are recognised as supporting identified that biodiversity is the basic environment, and recognising internationally important natural most vulnerable sector for Australia that the rate of change has not been heritage, including the Tasmanian and New Zealand to the impacts previously experienced (Steffen et Wilderness World Heritage Area, of climate change, with greater risks al . 2009). Macquarie Island World Heritage than sectors such as agriculture and Area, ten internationally significant How Tasmania’s terrestrial forestry, health, tourism and major Ramsar-listed wetlands, and wetlands biodiversity will be impacted by infrastructure. and marine environments providing climate change is largely unknown. breeding habitat for a number of The first national assessment of the There have been many observational migratory terrestrial and marine vulnerability of Australia’s terrestrial records over the past few decades migratory species that are protected biodiversity to climate change has of changes at the species and under international conventions.

29 Impacts on key drivers the Central Highlands region will environmental change to a single experience the most change. cause, and climate change will In general Tasmania is a mountainous interact with other existing threats Predicting the impact of climate state with high topographic relief. or stressors to biodiversity (see change on Tasmania’s biodiversity This may provide microhabitats Chapter 2). Nevertheless, there have is complicated by a range of issues that act as refugia or as new sites been recent changes to species and including the uncertainty about the open for colonisation for species ecosystems that Australian scientists severity and direction of variation or communities to move into. have identified have a ‘climate signal’ in the basic physical and chemical The impact of climate change is (Hughes 2000, 2003; Chambers et al . factors such as CO2 concentrations, predicted to vary between regions. 2005; Steffen et al . 2009). Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) temperature, rainfall and ocean projections (in preparation) indicate acidity. It can be difficult to attribute

Table 5 .1 Physical processes in major ecosystems likely to be impacted by climate change .

Physical climate change indicator Potential impact

Increases in minimum and maximum temperatures will affect physiology of some plant species Increase in altitudinal range of Phytophthora cinnamomi Many of the dominant Eucalyptus species in Tasmania’s forests have a restricted Increased temperature climatic and geographic range and may be susceptible to increased temperatures May lead to an advance in the onset of spring, delay in autumn, and increased out- of-season events such as winter flowering May lead to increase in treeline Reduced flow in rivers, drying of wetlands Oxidisation of peatlands, reduction in rate of peat accumulation in buttongrass moorlands and Sphagnum peatlands Reduced precipitation Increased stress of species currently at the limits of climate tolerance, e.g. Eucalyptus gunnii, Sphagnum species Decreased regeneration rates in dry eucalypt forests Loss of alpine plant species that require frost for germination Uphill movement of treeline Reduced incidence of frosts Increase in woody species in frost hollows Loss of specialised fjaeldmark communities Reduced snowlie Loss of specialised snowpatch communities such as cushion moorlands Widespread dieback of eucalypt species Breeding seasons of some mammals that are related to spring rainfall may change if rainfall patterns change Changed seasonality of rainfall Changes in the ratio of C3 to C4 plant species Changes in the secondary metabolites such as tannins and phenolics will affect palatability and nutrient value of plants to browsers

30 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity Geology and geomorphology play be affected by climate change are and active hillslope processes) a fundamental role in determining fluvial (rivers, lakes and wetlands) will also be affected, with locally vegetation distribution. The and coastal/estuarine systems important effects on landforms and future distribution of vegetation (particularly soft, sandy coasts). The geoconservation values. communities will also be controlled effects of important environmental Some of the potential physical by the response of geomorphic and drivers on earth surface processes, processes that are likely to be soil processes to climate change. including temperature, rainfall, impacted by predicted climate Conversely, direct effects of climate evapo-transpiration and storminess, change and their possible impacts change on vegetation will alter will vary statewide. Sea level rise on major ecosystem types are rates of erosion and deposition will critically affect the coastal fringe summarised in Table 5.1. in geomorphic systems. Key and estuaries. Other less extensive geomorphic systems most likely to systems (including karst, aeolian

Physical climate change indicator Potential impact

Increased productivity in forests Changes in phenology of plant species Increased CO2 Woody “thickening” of vegetation Expansion of rainforest into montane grasslands and eucalypt communities Impact on dry coastal ecosystems and coastal wetlands, particularly where there is no potential for upslope expansion and movement Sea level rise and storm surges Saltwater intrusion into freshwater wetlands Near-coastal riparian Huon pine forests are sensitive to saltwater intrusion Alpine ecosystems negatively impacted by increased soil evaporation with increased temperature Possible increase in myrtle wilt Changes to flowering season with consequent impacts for pollinators and Interactive effects successful pollination Increased temperature and increased CO2 may lead to increased growth rates and resultant higher fuel loads Increased fire frequency will affect age structure of forests and habitat availability Loss of fire-sensitive species from increased number and intensity of bushfires Increased frequency and severity of bushfires may lead to the loss of major Extreme events ecosystem types where dominant tree species such as Eucalyptus globulus, Eucalyptus regnans and Athrotaxis are fire-killed

31 The potential impacts of climate vulnerable ecosystems, and Alpine, subalpine and change on biodiversity at the species moorland fauna such as the broad- highland treeless ecosystems and the major ecosystem level toothed rat and burrowing crayfish Australian alpine environments have are considered in the following are sensitive to changes in moorland been identified as one of the most sections, but it should be noted that habitats. Alpine ecosystems are sensitive Australian environments the responses to climate change also highly vulnerable, particularly to the potential impacts of will be complex and variable. to altered fire regimes. Alpine climate change, with a high risk Climate change will not play out communities on north-eastern of biodiversity loss predicted by evenly across the state and there mountains such as Ben Lomond 2020 (Green and Pickering 2002; will be regional differences in the and Mt Arthur, and relict rainforest Hennessey et al . 2007). Endemic vulnerability of ecosystems and patches on protected gullies on the alpine species have been identified natural values. east coast are considered to be as having a disproportionately high highly vulnerable. The Climate Futures vulnerability to climate change (Pauli for Tasmania Project is currently Ecosystem level et al . 2003), with limited capacity deriving new Tasmanian climate responses to adapt (Fischlin et al . 2007). In projections to be released in 2010. particular the predicted incidence of Climate change will lead to They will enable regional projections extreme events such as wildfire and ecosystem changes, including to be developed. drought could have a very significant transformed and novel ecosystems impact. for which there are no current analogues, and local species extinctions (Dunlop and Brown 2008). There will also be associated effects on ecosystem processes which Figure 5 .1 Distribution of Tasmania’s alpine, subalpine and highland treeless will in turn affect the ecosystem ecosystem, a total extent of 168,000 hectares . services provided to society. Changed climate parameters such as decreased rainfall and increased temperature, and increased incidence of extreme events such as increased frequency and incidence of drought and fire, will variably impact on terrestrial biodiversity in different regions in Tasmania. As a mountainous state with strong climatic gradients, Tasmania is considered to be somewhat buffered from the predicted impacts of climate change.

Increased shrub and tree invasion could lead to significantly transformed alpine ecosystems. Tasmanian moorlands and peatlands are potentially one of the most

32 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity Tasmanian alpine environments are distinguished by high vascular plant diversity and endemic richness, primitive and relictual species . Alpine communities are vulnerable to climate change, with the potential for increased incidence of fire from lightning strikes - much of the alpine vegetation is fire-killed. (Photo: Tom Bennett) .

Tasmania has more than half of Australia’s alpine and treeless subalpine vegetation, mostly within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (Balmer and Whinam 1991). The variable climate, topography, geology and edaphic endemic conditions give rise to a wider range species of environmental conditions within of cushion Tasmania’s high country than within shrubs. The the Australian Alps (Kirkpatrick and and more diversity of Tasmanian Bridle 1998, 1999). frequent fires may alpine conifers (seven species from also affect fire-sensitive plant species Alpine and highland treeless six genera and two families) is very in the Tasmanian Wilderness WHA, ecosystems in Tasmania include high, and is rich in primitive and relict including pencil pine, myrtle beech, treeless vegetation communities that species. deciduous beech, and King Billy occur within the alpine zone where pine. Research has demonstrated an the growth of trees is impeded by Potential impacts on alpine, upward shift of alpine plant species climatic factors (Harris and Kitchener subalpine and highland in the northern hemisphere (e.g. treeless ecosystems 2005). The altitude above which Walther et al . 2005), and increased trees cannot survive varies between All of Tasmania’s alpine regions are evapotranspiration rates leading approximately 700 m in the south- projected to be warmer (Grose et to drought where warmer and west to over 1,400 m in the north- al . 2010), with reduced snowlie and drier conditions are predicted (e.g. east highlands. Highland treeless and depth (McIntosh et al . 2005). Much Pederson et al . 2006). Increasing alpine communities include highland of the alpine country in Tasmania temperature is likely to lead to native grasslands and moorlands, is in central Tasmania which may an increase in tree species in the coniferous alpine heathlands, cushion experience greater warming and alpine ecosystem, with increased moorlands, alpine and subalpine drying in the next few decades than germination and seedling survival heaths, sedgelands and herblands. other Tasmanian regions (McIntosh observed in many species in et al . 2005; Grose et al . 2010). cold environments including the Key values of alpine, Australian Alps (Hughes 2000). subalpine and highland Changes in temperature and treeless ecosystems precipitation are likely to impact Snowpatch and fjaeldmark are directly on alpine ecosystems, with distinctive localised components of The Tasmanian alpine ecosystem, like increased risk of fire under warmer alpine vegetation that are likely to be many mountain regions of the world, and drier climate scenarios being of sensitive to changes in temperature, is distinguished by high vascular particular concern. Alpine conifers precipitation, frequency of frost and plant diversity and endemic richness are restricted (Balmer et al . 2004) patterns of snowlie. Fjaeldmark (Kirkpatrick and Brown1984). and particularly sensitive to fire vegetation occurs at the extreme The bolster heaths or cushion (Jackson 1999). One-third of King of the environmental gradient for communities so characteristic of Billy pine populations have been exposure to wind, frost heave and Tasmania’s high country exhibit eliminated by fire in the 100 years to insolation (Kirkpatrick et al . 2002). globally exceptional levels of 1988 (Brown 1988). More intense endemism and diversity, with six

33 Snowpatch plant communities are distinctive localised components of alpine vegetation that are likely to be sensitive to changes in temperature, precipitation, frequency of frost and patterns of snowlie . Large patches of this distinctive longleaf milligania (Milligania longifolia) and other alpine herbs dominate on the boggy wet patches that form where snow drifts linger . (Photo: Tim Rudman) .

Key values of moorlands and peatlands

Buttongrass moorlands contain over 200 species of flora and provide habitat for a number of endemic fauna and flora species restricted to this ecosystem, as well as taxa of ancient origins, Moorlands in Tasmania such as the burrowing crayfish include buttongrass (Parastacoides spp.), pygmy mountain moorlands, Sphagnum shrimps (Allanaspides spp.) and peatlands, rushland, sedgeland the damselfly Synthemiopsis( Moorlands and peatland predominantly on gomphomacromioides). Buttongrass and peatlands low fertility substrates in high flora includes several threatened rainfall areas (Figure 5.2). These Australia’s buttongrass moorlands species and provides habitat for the communities are considered to are a globally unique peatland type. ground parrot (Pezoporus wallicus) be highly sensitive to the potential They occur in isolated poorly- and the endangered orange-bellied impacts of climate change. drained boggy valley plains in Victoria parrot (Neophema chrysogaster). and New South Wales but have Buttongrass moorlands exemplify their greatest extent (550,000 ha) vegetation succession associated and diversity in Tasmania (Balmer with fire, through a complex et al . 2004). Peatlands are a vital component of the carbon cycle, emitting methane and nitrous oxide and storing large amounts of carbon. Figure 5 .2 The distribution of moorland and peatland ecosystems in Tasmania They have been estimated to store almost 30% of the global soil carbon stores despite being only 3% of the world’s surface (Parish et al . 2008).

34 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity interactive process that involves Potential impacts on floristic, geomorphic and climatic moorlands and variables (Sharples 2003). peatlands

Sphagnum peatlands are an unusual Tasmania’s extensive and infrequent component of the moorlands and Tasmanian landscape. They are peatlands are generally restricted to the cooler potentially highly and wetter highlands of central impacted by Tasmania, mostly between 600 predicted to 1000 m in high rainfall sites. climate Sphagnum peatlands are acidic change, with and tend to have a suite of plant changes in species present that are adapted to temperature acidity and poor drainage, although and moisture bog candleheath (Richea gunnii) is impacting possibly the only Sphagnum-obligate on peat species. Sphagnum peatlands accumulation serve as habitat for certain cryptic and oxidation and ‘primitive’ animal groupings, rates. Buttongrass including the first record of the moorlands have crustacean family Stygocaridae from their best expression Tasmania (Whinam et al . 1989). in western Tasmania which The conservation significance of like much of Tasmania will be the Alpine Sphagnum Bogs and warmer (McIntosh et al . 2005; Grose Associated Fens was recognised in et al . 2010). Under the A2 scenario Tasmania’s 2009 through their national listing increased winter rainfall and reduced extensive buttongrass moorlands as an endangered community under summer rainfall are likely in the west are a globally unique peatland type . the Environment Protection and (Grose et al . 2010). This will have Peatlands are a vital component of Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, implications for altered fire regimes the carbon cycle, emitting methane in addition to their listing under the and the incidence of the root-rot soil and nitrous oxide and storing large Tasmanian Nature Conservation Act pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi . amounts of carbon .They have been 2002 . estimated to store almost 30% of the global soil carbon stores . Projected changes in precipitation and temperature may result in peatlands changing from an important carbon storage to a carbon source through oxidation of peatlands . (Photo: Oberon Carter) .

35 The distribution of Sphagnum peatlands in Tasmania is limited by evapotranspiration in the warmest month . Changes in precipitation patterns and increases in temperature may result in a decline in the extent of Sphagnum peatlands, especially if the intensity and frequency of fires increase. Sphagnum peatlands of Tasmania provide an important carbon store . Research on Sphagnum communities at Mt Field and on the Central Plateau over the past 25 years has revealed that these communities are being invaded by species such as pineapple grass (Astelia alpina) ­and woody shrub species, as illustrated. This may lead to increased fire risk with increased fuel loads and changed hydrology . (Photo: Oberon Carter) .

the successional al . 2007). Recent work has identified process between that the impacts of climate change buttongrass moorland and on the forests of south-eastern rainforest (Jarman et al . 1988a), Australia could have serious social Projected with an increase in the area of young, and environmental consequences, increases in temperature and altered post-fire buttongrass moorland largely through the impacts of precipitation patterns are likely likely. Fire in buttongrass moorlands climate change on fire regimes to affect the long-term viability of affects both carbon storage and (House, in preparation). Sphagnum peatlands, particularly at runoff characteristics. Erosion, Tasmania has a large forested area low altitude sites. Dry conditions sediment transport and deposition (52% of the state), with a diversity tend to result in desiccation of in key western Tasmanian rivers and of forest types including rainforests, Sphagnum moss, and drought estuaries is primarily controlled by eucalypt forests and woodlands, conditions are known to have the health of organosols in these subalpine communities, coniferous caused contraction of Sphagnum catchments. forests, heathlands and a range of moss beds in Tasmania (Whinam et Many plant species in moorlands scrubs and woodlands dominated al . 2001) and its disappearance from are highly susceptible to the plant by species other than eucalypts some mainland sites (Bridgman et al . pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi, such as wattles, tea-trees, banksias 1995). and increasing temperatures may (Figure 5.3). Rainforests occur from Moorlands may be the most favour this pathogen, and it is sea level to subalpine environments flammable vegetation type in the likely to reach higher elevations in and extend over 750,000 ha, largely world, able to burn at the highest buttongrass moorlands than have in western Tasmania with its higher recorded fuel moisture levels been recorded to date. rainfall. Where fire is more frequent (Marsden-Smedley et al . 1999). They rainforest species become restricted are unusual soil systems, where Forest, woodland and and eucalypt forests predominate. decayed buttongrass vegetation has associated ecosystems Wet eucalypt forests are largely provided the main carbon source dominated by ash species and Forests are amongst the most for these extensive organosols, require catastrophic fire events for productive terrestrial ecosystems, but they are also highly flammable. stand replacement. Understoreys covering about 30% of the globe, The organosols can burn or rapidly may be shrubby or grassy, largely and been identified as having a high oxidise during bushfires. A decrease depending on soil fertility. About potential vulnerability to climate in effective precipitation and an 45% of Tasmania’s forests are dry change in the long-term, and increase in extreme weather events eucalypt forests and woodlands, more immediately to the impacts is likely to result in an increase in and they may have grassy, shrubby, of changed disturbance regimes both fire frequency and fire intensity. heathy or sedgy understoreys, (drought, fire and insects) (Fischlin et Changing fire regimes would affect depending on rainfall, soil fertility,

36 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity Figure 5 .3 . The distribution of forest ecosystems in Tasmania

(a) Rainforests (b) Conifer forests

(c) Wet forests (d) Dry forests

(e) Scrubs and Heaths

37 Rural tree decline or dieback has been widespread in Tasmania in the past few decades, particularly in eastern Tasmania where it has led to the widespread loss of white gum (Eucalyptus viminalis) forests such as these in the Midlands . (Photo: Oberon Carter) .

fire frequency, grazing regimes and the primitive endemic angiosperm other environmental factors. In low whitey wood (Acradenia franklinii) rainfall regions fire-sensitive forests within the understorey. Huon pine dominated by she-oaks and oyster is the longest lived tree in Australia – bay pines, and scrubs formed by trees over 3,000 years old have been wattles, tea-trees and prickly box dated – making it one of the longest Potential occur. lived organisms on Earth. For this impacts on forest, woodland reason, Huon pine is of scientific and associated ecosystems Key values of forest, importance for dendrochronological woodland and associated studies. Forest ecosystems are slow-growing ecosystems and do not have the ability to Tasmania’s tall eucalypt forests form migrate quickly into more favourable Tasmania’s temperate rainforest and some of the most pristine temperate climatic zones, thus they potentially related rainforest scrubs, along with forests in the world. These unique have a low capacity to adapt to alpine communities, provide habitat forests provide the world’s best climate change. Species composition for primitive relict genera of flora examples of distinctive evolutionary in forests is likely to change, resulting and fauna and exhibit high levels of features that enable the dominant in differences in species’ tolerance to endemism. Montane rainforests in sclerophyll trees to survive in areas new conditions and the rates that particular are rich in primitive plant where the climatic climax vegetation they are able to migrate. Tasmania species, relict species and endemics, is rainforest (Helsham 1988). has 29 eucalypt species (Williams especially coniferous forests. These These forests have the greatest and Potts 1996), with 17 taxa include the King Billy pine (Athrotaxis species richness and highest levels endemic to the state (Brown et al . selaginoides) montane forests, of endemism of any mixed forest 1983), and many of these form the pencil pine (Athrotaxis cupressoides) in Australia (Balmer et al . 2004). dominant tree cover in our forests. montane forests, and Huon pine Sclerophyll forests provide habitat Many Australian eucalypts have a (Lagarostrobos franklinii) rainforests. for all five of Tasmania’s endemic restricted climatic and geographic The most extensive pencil pine mammals (Driessen and Mallick range. Over 50% of Australian montane forests and woodlands 2003). Several threatened raptors, eucalypts have distributions that are located on the Central Plateau, such as the grey goshawk (Accipiter span less than 3°C of mean annual with the vast majority (97%) in the novaehollandiae), wedge-tail eagle temperature, with 25% spanning World Heritage Area (Balmer et (Aquila audax) and the masked less than 1°C (Hughes et al . 1996). al . 2004). This long-lived (1,000+ owl (Tyto novaehollandiae) occur in This narrow temperature tolerance years), fire-sensitive endemic conifer these forest habitats, as well as the range is significant with regard to dominates small areas of rainforest threatened spotted-tailed quoll and future forest habitat availability and from mid-altitude forests to alpine Tasmanian devil. Nine of Tasmania’s suitability. Temperature increases are heaths. Half of the montane King 11 endemic terrestrial bird species likely across Tasmania (McIntosh et al . Billy pine forests are in the World are found within the sclerophyll 2005; Grose et al . 2010). Heritage Area. Huon pine rainforest forest habitats (Driessen and Mallick is usually found along river banks, 2003). There are concerns about the flood plains and the margins of lakes impact of climate change on the in western Tasmania from sea level carbon storage potential of forest to 850 m altitude (Balmer et al . systems. Increased respiration rates 2004). A small area of Huon pine and changes in species composition rainforest includes vegetation with

38 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity may reduce carbon accumulation in Rainforests may be particularly temperate forests. The increased risk susceptible to the impacts of of fire may also have a major impact climate change through on the ability of forests to store the impacts of more carbon, and reach maturity, as well frequent drought as impacts on species composition and increased and forest structure. Recently there fire regimes, has been increasing recognition of particularly the role that old growth forests play remnant in the continued storage of carbon rainforest (Luyssaert et al . 2008). patches in the protected Fire plays a major role in the gullies of regeneration and dynamics of forest eastern ecosystems in Tasmania, ranging Tasmania. from fire-sensitive forest types Forests such as such as the conifer communities the small pockets through to forest ecosystems that of specialised require catastrophic fire for their rainforest (“cloud regeneration. Changes in the nature forest”) on Maria of extreme fire events predicted Island, Tasman Peninsula, in response to climate change are Flinders Island and south considered to be one of the most Bruny Island provide important significant impacts on Tasmania’s refugia for rainforest species, and are forest ecosystems. Inappropriate likely to be susceptible. Tasmania is Montane fire frequency has previously been a stronghold in Australia of fire- coniferous forest at Mt Anne in the identified as possibly the greatest sensitive rainforest types - large Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage threat to the integrity of eucalypt areas of conifers and deciduous Area . These forests contain many communities (Brown 1996). Changes beech have already been lost to endemic species, some of which are to the key drivers such as increased fire. One third of King Billy pine considered primitive . Reduced rainfall temperature and reduced rainfall, populations have been eliminated may have direct implications for increased productivity associated by fire in the past 100 years (Brown these species, as well as the potential with increased CO2, combined with 1988). Warmer and drier conditions increase in wildfires which would increased incidence of lightning and are likely to lead to an increase in threaten these fire-sensitive forests. possibly stronger wind patterns, may both fire frequency and fire intensity. (Photo: Greg Jordan) . all contribute to increased incidence and severity of fire. In addition changes in fire management and prescribed burning policies could lead to changes in forest structure and composition.

39 Miena cider gum (Eucalyptus gunnii subsp . divaricata) provides an example of dramatic decline in the face of changing climatic conditions interacting with other factors . Miena cider gum grows in poorly-drained conditions at the margins of frost hollows and has suffered a rapid decline throughout its narrow geographic range over the last two decades .This is thought to be due to a combination of factors and exacerbated by extended drought . (Photo: Neil Davidson)

Fire will also impact on Dieback in eucalypt trees is the soil carbon stored widespread in Tasmania, with the under these forests. widespread death of dominant Changes in CO2 are likely eucalypts in rural areas since the to change growth rates and 1970’s. The dieback in white gum the interaction of tree species (Eucalyptus viminalis) and black and available moisture, particularly peppermint (E . amygdalina), and in regenerating forests (Steffen more recently the death of montane

and Canadell 2005 cited in House species yellow gum, (E . subcrenulata) Warmer and drier conditions in in prep.). Regeneration of these at Cradle Mountain, gum-top stringy mountain areas leading to increased forest types following fire has also bark (E . delegatensis) at Great Lake, drought has been projected to lead been linked to significant decreases Miena cider gum (E . gunnii ssp. to increased dieback in mountain in surface runoff and streamflow, divaricata) on the Central Plateau forests (Bugmann et al . 2005). There which will affect fluvial processes and have been linked to a 30 year has been recent observational reduce water availability. autumn deficit in rainfall (e.g. Calder evidence of drought-associated and Kirkpatrick 2008). The recent death and damage to the crowns of Dry sclerophyll forests and extended drought has also affected King Billy pines in different parts of woodlands are largely confined forest understorey condition and Tasmania such as Mount Anne and to the lower rainfall regions of wildlife habitat, but drought-breaking Mount Bobs and to pencil pines central and eastern Tasmania, and winter rains in 2009 have rejuvenated at Cradle Mountain and Mount the northern coastal zones. These understoreys in many districts. Field. Rainforests provide habitat for ecosystems, along with Tasmania’s primitive endemic species that are largely agricultural landscapes, are Lowland grassland ecosystems not likely to be able to adapt rapidly concentrated in the ‘temperate to change to climate parameters. cool-season wet’ agro-climatic Native temperate grasslands are zone (Hutchinson et al . 2005) grass-dominated ecosystems where An assessment of the impact of that is likely to be highly impacted seasonal climates and soils favour the climate change on south-east upon by the effects of climate dominance of perennial grasses and Australian sclerophyll forests has change (Dunlop and Brown 2008). other graminoids. The temperate been undertaken as a component Woodlands in particular have already grasslands biome occupies about ~ 8% of a national assessment of the undergone significant changes since of the earth’s terrestrial surface. These impact of climate change on the European settlement, with extensive grasslands occur on every continent National Reserve System (House fragmentation in lowland Tasmania. except for Antarctica and are now in preparation). Changes in the These regions, like the rest of the the most endangered ecosystem on frequency and intensity of both State, will experience warming in most of them, especially the prairies of planned and catastrophic fire the next few decades (McIntosh et North America, the pampas of South regimes is potentially the biggest al . 2005; Grose et al . 2010). Under America, the lowland grasslands of single impact of eucalypt forests of the A2 scenario increased summer south-east Australia and the steppes climate change, leading to changes in and autumn rainfall is likely in the of Eastern Europe (Henwood 2010). the structure and composition (Cary east, and central Tasmania will have Grasslands are estimated to contain 2002). This will impact particularly reduced rainfall in all seasons (Grose about 34% of the world’s terrestrial on the development and persistence et al . 2010). carbon (World Bank 2009). of tree hollows (Mackey et al . 2002), affecting habitat for arboreal fauna.

40 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity Natural temperate grasslands in Tasmanian lowland temperate Lowland temperate native grasslands Australia occur in a wide arc from grasslands cover around 100,000 are one of the most threatened and Adelaide in South Australia to ha (Figure 5.4), and are largely fragmented ecosystems in Australia Armidale in New South Wales restricted to more fertile soils in (Kirkpatrick et al .1995). Lowland (Moore 1970). The grasslands form the lower rainfall zones of eastern temperate grasslands and grassy a floristic continuum with temperate and central Tasmania. It is one of woodlands are one of Australia’s grassy woodlands, which are the most threatened and modified most under-represented biomes in widespread in southern and eastern ecosystems in the state. Lowland the national conservation estate - it Australia. Australia’s temperate grasslands have suffered significant is estimated that <2% of the lowland tussock grasslands consist of a loss and degradation in the past temperate grasslands remain in most mix of perennial C3 genera (Poa, decade, particularly in the Midlands Australian regions (Kirkpatrick et al . Austrodanthonia, Austrostipa) and where severe drought has persisted. 1997; Carter et al . 2002), with much a widespread C4 grass (Themeda Lowland grasslands are generally of this area in private ownership. triandra), with few woody species. found in landscapes with a high Lowland grasslands are largely reliant potential for agricultural production, Key values of lowland on winter-spring rainfall, with most and they will continue to be grassland ecosystems plant growth in spring. However, exposed to loss through land use Tasmania has some of the most grasslands are adapted to a high change, which is likely to increase as extensive areas of remaining variability in the rainfall, and have a response to climate change (see lowland grassland in Australia, with evolved under high disturbance also Chapter 2). the Tasmanian Midlands having regimes with fire and grazing (Prober nationally significant examples et al . 2007). (McDougall and Kirkpatrick 1994). They are species-rich ecosystems and are important habitat for Figure 5 .4 The distribution of lowland grassland ecosystems in Tasmania threatened plants and animals. There are 56 flora and fauna grassland species listed on the Tasmanian Threatened Species Protection Act 1995 including fourteen listed on the Commonwealth Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC) . Whilst much of the remaining grassland suffers from a legacy of fragmentation, weed invasion and land use change, they are important for ecosystem function in lowland agricultural regions. The conservation significance of the lowland grassland communities, Lowland Poa labillardierei grassland and Lowland Themeda triandra

41 grassland was recognised in 2009 Australia and is often referred to as Species level responses through the listing of Tasmanian “thickening”. lowland temperate grasslands as Climate change has been predicted Differences in phenological a critically endangered community to have a wide range of impacts responses between different under the EPBC Act. on Australian species, including functional groups may potentially changes in species distributions and increase competition within abundances, ecosystem processes, Potential impacts on lowland grassland ecosystems grassland ecosystems (Cleland interactions between species, and et al . 2006). The impacts of the various threats to biodiversity An assessment of the impact of projected climate of 2040 (2°C (Dunlop and Brown 2008). Predicted climate change on lowland grasslands warming and CO2 at 550 ppm) climate change is expected to result and grassy woodlands has been in Tasmanian temperate native in changes in species’ numbers, undertaken as a component of a grasslands on factors such as soil distribution and composition. There national assessment of the impact carbon storage, pasture productivity, is growing evidence that climate of climate change on the National population dynamics and nutrient change will become one of the Reserve System (Prober et al . in availability have been the subject major drivers of species extinctions preparation). Likely responses of recent research (Williams et this century (Foden et al . 2008). include a loss of grasses and an al . 2007). Population growth of associated expansion of shrubs, Themeda triandra, a perennial C4 The range of potential impacts of with an impact on grass-dependent grass, was largely unaffected by climate change on individual species species such as seed-eating birds. either factor but population growth is extensive, and species are likely to The fragmentation and degradation of Austrodanthonia caespitosa, a react differently and individualistically. of lowland grasslands reduces their perennial C3 grass, was reduced Dunlop and Brown (2008) and natural resilience, making them more substantially in elevated CO2 Steffen et al . (2009) both provide vulnerable to the impacts of climate plots, with reduced reproduction, excellent summaries of the potential change. germination and soil moisture, and impacts of climate change in was probably due to increased soil Australia on the biology and ecology Recent experimental work provides evaporation. Experimental work of individuals, and at the population evidence that increasing atmospheric in tallgrass prairie grasslands in and ecosystem levels, and these CO2 may be contributing to the USA have demonstrated an principles are directly applicable to shrubland expansion and to invasion extended growing season (by 3 Tasmania. of grasslands by woody plants in weeks), and a shift in reproductive the past 200 years on a global scale Tasmania has approximately 1,900 events (Sherry et al . 2007). (Morgan et al . 2007; Bloor et al . native plant species, 34 native 2008). In the past decades there Natural grasslands, like forest terrestrial mammals, 159 resident has been observational evidence systems, are important for the terrestrial species of birds, 21 land of increased shrub invasion into sequestration of large amounts reptiles, 11 amphibians and 44 Tasmanian grasslands - landholders of carbon, primarily in the soil freshwater fish, and many of these have reported increased densities of (Amundson 2001; World Bank species are naturally rare and are woody species such as prickly box 2009), and grassland degradation geographically and climatically (Bursaria spinosa), wattles (Acacia and conversion is a large source of restricted (http://www.dpiw.tas.gov. species) and woody weed species carbon loss internationally (Xie et al . au). These groups will be variously such as gorse and broom. This trend 2007; Yang et al . 2008). impacted by the predicted impacts is reported throughout eastern of climate change. However no

42 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity Natural grasslands, like forest systems, are important for the sequestration of large amounts of carbon, primarily in the soil, and grassland degradation and conversion is a large source of carbon loss (Photo: Matthew Appleby) .

detailed risk-assessment has been undertaken at the species level to date. Some potential impacts are listed on the next page (Table 5.2).

Threatened species

More than 600 species of plant and animal are listed on the schedules of Tasmania’s Threatened Species Protection Act 1995. They have a disproportionally high risk of extinction from the potential impacts of climate change. They may already have low population numbers, low numbers of mature individuals, low genetic diversity, or specialised habitat or ecological requirements. These predisposing traits may make them more susceptible and less adaptable to environmental change.

In Tasmania, the broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) occurs in sedgelands and alpine heathlands of western Tasmania . Modelled climate change with a 20% reduction in precipitation and a warming of 3 .4°C at 42°S (central Tasmania) suggests that the distribution of this species will contract from coastal and inland lowland areas into mountains, with the only really suitable areas being in the vicinity of Cradle Mountain–Lake St Clair (Green et al . 2008) . (Photo: Michael Driessen) .

43 Table 5 .2 Some examples of the potential impact of climate change on various elements of biodiversity .

Mammals The subalpine and moorland habitats of the broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) may be highly vulnerable, putting it at risk. Birds Changes in phenology and breeding is predicted for terrestrial birds (Chambers et al . 2005) Wetland birds impacted by drying of wetlands, saltwater intrusion into freshwater coastal systems, loss of habitat for coastal birds. All species within the albatross, penguin, petrel and shearwater families considered at risk (Foden et al . 2008). In Australia, it is anticipated that nearly 20% of migratory bird species are potentially affected through the loss of coastal habitat due to sea level rise, and marine and coastal birds will also be affected in combination with coastal development (Mallon 2007). Reptiles Some Tasmanian skinks may be at risk to climate change, including three mountain species with specific temperature requirements. The vulnerable Pedra Branca skink (Niveoscincus palfreymani) is only found on the barren island of Pedra Branca where they feed on small invertebrates and on fish scraps dropped or regurgitated by the seabirds on the island. They are susceptible to any changes in the seabird colony, and their low-lying habitat is at risk of storm surges. Amphibians Frogs are considered the most at risk taxa (Steffen et al . 2009), particularly from the increased incidence of chytrid fungus (Laurance 2008). All of Tasmania’s 11 species occur in families identified as vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Foden et al . 2008). Fish Native freshwater fish are likely to be sensitive to increased water temperature and its interactive effects with reduced rainfall on water quality. The golden galaxias (Galaxias auratus) occurs mainly at Lake Sorell and Lake Crescent, where water levels have been decreasing to below the level where spawning habitat dries out. Invertebrates Pollinators may experience disruption to their food supply, because their timing is dependent on cumulative temperature, whereas flowering is synchronised by photoperiod. Plants Species with nowhere to go, such as those that live on mountain tops, low-lying islands, high latitudes and edges of continents, and those with restricted ranges such as rare and endemic species, are considered vulnerable to climate change. Tasmania has eleven obligate alpine plant species, living only on the mountain tops. Tasmania has high levels of endemism in its plant species, particularly in alpine and rainforest species - 70% of the species on western mountain tops are endemic. Plant species with extreme habitat/niche specialisations, such as narrow tolerance to climate-sensitive variables, are considered vulnerable. In Tasmania this could include snowpatch species such as heath cushion plant (Dracophyllum minimum), redflower milligania Milligania( lindoniana) and the small star plantain (Plantago glacialis). Plant species that are fire-killed are also considered to be vulnerable to the effects of changed fire frequencies and intensities due to climate change. All the Tasmanian native conifer species are highly susceptible to the impacts of fire.

44 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s 6. Marine and Coastal Ecosystems The Tasmanian marine and coastal the northern marine areas including environments are characterised by Bass Strait), Tasmanian (the marine a rich biodiversity, heterogeneous area south of Bass Strait) and the coastal landforms, a plethora of Insulantarctic (Macquarie Island). offshore island habitats and the Both the Bassian and Tasmanian convergence of oceanic currents bioprovinces are each divided into which provide a wide range of four distinct bioregions based on environments and ecological niches. the distribution of reef plants and Tasmania has the highest ratio of animal communities. Twenty-one Australia’s marine environment has coastline per unit of land area of any marine reserves are declared within unique geological, oceanographic Australian state, with approximately Tasmania, with the largest comprising and biological characteristics, with 5,400 km of coastline, and over 25% the Macquarie Island Marine high levels of endemism in the fish, of the area of the state lies below Reserve. The Commonwealth has echnioderms and molluscs . Changes the high water mark (RPDC 2003). declared 13 marine reserves in in the chemistry and temperature of South East Marine Region, 8 of Tasmania’s marine environment may Key values which lie adjacent to Tasmanian State have a profound effect on marine Waters, with the network covering ecosystems . (Photos: Benita Vincent) . 2 Marine systems 226,500 km .

The South East Marine Region of Australia comprises three biogeographic bioprovinces, the Bassian (comprising

45 Handfish belong to a unique Australian family of anglerfish (Brachionichthyidae) - five of the eight currently identified species are endemic to Tasmania and Bass Strait. The spotted handfish (Brachionichthys hirsutus) is classified as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List 2002 . It has a highly restricted territory, being found only in the estuary of Derwent River and nearby areas . Species with narrow habitat requirements or with a very localised distribution are potentially more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on the marine environment . (Photo: Graham Edgar) .

light environment and including the short-tailed shearwater. the recruitment of fish The lower Derwent estuary and and invertebrates. They play adjoining bays and channels are a key role as a mechanism for the only location where the unique The invertebrate dispersal and provide and endangered spotted handfish Tasmanian important foraging and nesting (Brachionichthys hirsutus) is found marine environment is recognised habitat for shorebirds and migratory (Bruce and Green 1998). for the global significance of its waders. Kelp forests also have a very marine biodiversity. The Tasmanian high recreational value for diving in Coastal systems marine environment is highly valued Tasmania. with areas such as the Bathurst Tasmania has a wide diversity Channel marine and estuarine of coastal landforms, reflecting Estuaries community considered unique complex lithology and geological and globally anomalous (Edgar et Estuarine environments are among structure, various discrete sediment al . 2007). The geomorphological, the most productive on earth - the sources, and variable nearshore climatic, hydrodynamic and sheltered tidal waters of estuaries submarine topography. It has a hydrological conditions operating support unique communities of large extent of coastline relative in the Port Davey region have plants and animals that are specially to its land mass, with the highest generated an aquatic environment adapted for life at the margin ratio of coastline to land area of with an unusually abundant mix of the sea. In Tasmania these any Australian state (RPDC 2003). of flora and fauna. Some of these include beaches and dunes, rocky There are few undisturbed high- endemic species have an extremely foreshores, marshes and other energy compartmentalised rocky narrow range and include relictual wetlands, mud and sandflats, seagrass and sandy coasts in the world’s Gondwanan elements, notably the meadows, kelp forests and rocky temperate zones that compare with Port Davey skate (Edgar et al . 2007). reefs. Estuaries are essential for those in Tasmania, especially on the the survival of many birds, fish and west coast (Sharples 2003). This The kelp forests of southern mammals. These “nurseries of the high-energy coastline has a diversity Tasmania are world-renowned sea” provide many species of fish of landforms and associated plant for their ecological and economic with sheltered waters for spawning communities and species. Tasmania’s significance. Kelp, a major keystone and safe habitat for juveniles to offshore islands are important sea species, provides key habitat develop. Some migratory wader bird rookeries (Brothers et al . 2001) for commercial species such as birds rely on estuaries as resting and contain cool temperate island abalone and rock lobster, important and feeding grounds during their floras of national significance on Ile regional fisheries. Kelp forests also long journeys. In particular, the du Golfe, Maatsuyker Island and Flat play important ecological roles Derwent Estuary is visited by at Witch Island in the World Heritage influencing the hydrological and least 11 species of migratory birds Area (Balmer et al . 2004).

46 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems The Tasmanian coastal environment the coast between Cockle Creek Impacts on key drivers contains a high proportion of the and Macquarie Harbour contributes state’s native plant species (about to the international significance of Marine systems a third), with about 145 species the Tasmanian Wilderness World (8% of the flora) largely confined Heritage Area. The coastal barrier, South-eastern Tasmania is expected to coastal areas (Balmer et al . lagoon and contributing fluvial to show the greatest sea surface 2004). The west coast habitats system at New River is arguably the temperature (SST) rising for offer specialised niches for some most pristine integrated coastal/ any location in the Southern rare and restricted endemic plants, estuarine/fluvial system in Australia. Hemisphere. Current evidence is particularly short coastal herbfields, showing an increase in southward North-western Tasmania has coastal cliffs, coastal beach sands, extent of the East Australian Current outstanding examples of beach sea bird breeding colonies and (EAC) in south-eastern Tasmania ridge sequences such as those on coastal lagoons. The coastal plant with a resultant southern extension Robbins Island, marking successive communities of the World Heritage of warmer, nutrient poor waters. Quaternary uplift events (van der Area are largely free of exotic sand- Data from the CSIRO show that the Geer 1981). Similarly the extensive binding plants, with the exception mean SST in Mercury Passage has calcareous dune systems that parallel of the recent invasion of coast sea already risen by 1.6°C in 50 years, the west coast represent at least spurge (Euphorbia paralias). Hence, three times the average rate of two major phases of Quaternary natural dune formation and erosion global warming (CSIRO 2007). The activity, and the spectacular parallel occur, supporting natural diversity Leeuwin Current which influences dune systems enclosing brackish in the grassy dune vegetation. In the west coast of Tasmania may lagoons along the east coast of sheltered embayments on the west decrease in strength, affecting the Furneaux Islands, along with coast a globally-unusual fen known important upwelling areas that are the saline lagoon systems of locally as marsupial lawns occur, critical foraging areas for a number Cape Barren Island, are also of the result of natural geomorphic of marine organisms and threatened high geoconservation significance. processes combined with grazing species such as the Shy Albatross Important examples of coasts that (Balmer et al . 2004). and marine mammals. A decrease have been subject to Quaternary in zonal westerly winds may inhibit Outstanding coastal features include uplift are found on King Island, with East Coast Tasmanian upwelling raised marine terraces on the west many raised beaches and sea-caves events, and a strengthening of the coast that provide Australia’s most (Jennings 1959). Waterhouse Point EAC will limit impingement of complete record of sea level in area is composed of extensive nutrient-rich southern waters. relation to tectonic uplift (Houshold ocean beaches and relict Pleistocene et al . 2007), and the coastal terrestrial longitudinal dune systems, Regardless of the other issues arising calcarenite on Flinders Island’s originally sourced from the dry bed from increased CO2 emissions south-west coast that are some of of Bass Strait (Bowden 1983). and their effects on the marine Australia’s best developed karst environment and oceanographic systems. processes, the natural absorption of CO2 by the world’s oceans is Tasmania’s south and west already having an observable impact coasts have the most extensive, (Royal Society 2005). Increased undeveloped coastline in south- CO2 concentrations in seawater eastern Australia. Backed by are currently reducing the pH essentially unmodified catchments, levels of the ocean making it more

47 acidic, having already dropped 0.1 important microbial processes Coastal systems units from pre-industrial levels such as nitrogen fixation and Coastal systems in Tasmania (Hobday et al . 2008). Reduced pH denitrification in estuaries (Lomas are considered some of the also reduces the concentrations et al . 2002). Some of the greatest environments most vulnerable of carbonate ion and aragonite potential impacts of climate change to climate change and sea level which are vital for the formation on estuaries may result from changes rise. Recent climate science has of shells and skeletons of marine in physical mixing characteristics progressed significantly since the organisms. Other indirect impacts caused by changes in freshwater IPPC’s Fourth Assessment Report, of increasing acidity of the oceans runoff (Scavia et al . 2002). This and data presented at a recent include increased stratification of leads to changes in water residence Standing Committee indicates that layers and the undersaturation time, nutrient delivery, vertical possible sea level rise is at the upper of calcium carbonate. Changes in stratification, salinity and control of end of the IPPC 4 projections of ocean chemistry are already leading phytoplankton growth rates. The 0.8 metres by 2100 (House of to decreased calcium deposition effects of changing rainfall patterns Representatives Standing Committee of organisms that are a major on water supply and stormwater on Climate Change, Water, component of the lower food web run-off increase sediment loads and Environment and the Arts 2009). Sea (Fabry et al . 2008; Riebesell et al . cause siltation, thus altering estuarine level rise is projected to result in the 2007; Riebesell et al . 2008). habitats. gradual inundation of ecosystems The likely physical effects on the for about half of the Australian coast Estuaries estuarine environment include: (Department of Climate Change Climate change was identified as 2009). - Widening and deepening of one of the nine potential threats estuaries The Tasmanian coastal environment to the biological resources and - Further upstream penetration of is identified in the Tasmanian Climate conservation value of Tasmanian tides, and potentially salt wedges Change Strategy as vulnerable to estuaries (Edgar et al . 1999). Other - Impeded river discharge, the impacts of climate change, with threats among the nine identified, potentially increasing flooding significant areas of coast at risk of such as modification to water flow - A greater proportion of fluvial erosion from exposure to sea level and the spread of pest species, sediment deposited in estuaries, rise and storm surge inundation. are also exacerbated by climate rather than augmenting coastal More than 1,440 km of Tasmania’s change. The mix of marine and sediment supply coastline has been identified as being freshwater influences on estuarine - Erosion of coastal barriers at risk of coastal flooding, and more systems suggests that estuaries will - Creation of new lagoon than 975 km of shoreline are at risk be impacted by climate change entrances of erosion, sand dune mobility, rock from multiple sources. There are - Modification of muddy estuarine/ falls and slumping as a result of sea impacts associated with sea level rise, deltaic/saltmarsh landforms level rise and storm surges (Sharples flooding and shoreline erosion. - Penetration of salt water into 2006), with consequent impacts on Climate change induced changes groundwater natural values. in pH, water temperature, wind, - Rising groundwater tables Impacts on Tasmania’s coastal dissolved CO2 and salinity can all landforms will be complex and affect water quality in estuarine variable, (Table 6.1) reflecting waters (Gitay et al . 2001). Increased the diversity of coastal systems. water temperature also affects

48 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Coastal grasslands dominated by the native Spinifex (Spinifex hirsutus) in north-eastern Tasmania . (Photo: Tim Rudman) .

General effects of climate change key factors to and sea level rise on various coastal be identified, landforms may include extensive and applied to a submergence of low-lying areas, detailed line map advancement of low and high of the state’s coastal tides landwards, increased coastal landforms. erosion, more frequent and intense Many Tasmanian beaches storm surges and minor coastal show evidence of ongoing retreat aggradation, where longshore and some of progradation over the sediment supply outstrips erosion past few decades. It is likely that at (Bird 1985). Increased storminess least some of this erosion is linked sediment transport and even minor will also likely modify western to recent sea level rise induced local subsidence may also have Tasmanian coastal environments. by climate change. The IPCC AR4 played a role in driving ongoing Sea level rise occurs as a direct cautions that for mid-latitudinal degradation. Significant coastal consequence of thermal expansion coastal systems, such as those retreat has also been documented of ocean water, and the melting of found in Tasmania, it is difficult to at Roches Beach in south-eastern land ice, driven by global warming. discriminate the extent to which Tasmania (Sharples 2006). The southward extension of changes such as coastal erosion The vulnerability of coastal systems the warmer EAC waters is also are a part of natural variability. The to climate change is exacerbated by predicted to result in a sea level rise clearest evidence of the impact of increasing human-induced pressures above that of global background climate change on coasts over the in the coastal zone. For most of the sea level rise. Over the last 150 past few decades comes from polar past century, coastal regions have years, global sea levels have risen by coasts and tropical reefs. Nearly all experienced significant growth and approximately 15-18 cm (Solomon beaches on the south-west coast are are projected to continue to show et al . 2007). This figure is supported currently eroding, with large active the most rapid population growth locally in Tasmania by a measured foredune erosion scarps (Cullen (Nicholls et al . 2007). Australia is rise of approximately 14 cm since 1998). Air-photo evidence indicates a very coastal society, with more 1841 at Port Arthur (Hunter et al . that this erosion has probably been than 80 per cent of the population 2003) (see Ch.1 for a discussion of in progress since at least the 1960s. living within 50 km of the coastline sea level rise). These changes are The most spectacular example of (PMSEIC Independent Working significant – application of the Bruun coastal retreat in Tasmania is found Group 2007). Coastlines that are Rule (Bruun 1962) suggests that for at Ocean Beach on the west coast subject to development have a lower sandy coasts, for every 1m of rise where the coastline has retreated capacity to adapt to changes in sea there will be 50-100 m of horizontal between 20 and 30 metres over level, because they are no longer in erosion. the last few decades (Ian Houshold their natural state of being dynamic A comprehensive analysis of pers.comm.). This has involved the and highly mobile. In addition, if Tasmania’s coastal vulnerability to removal of the entire foredune, with human responses to rising sea sea level rise has been undertaken the current coastal scarp actively levels are to defend the coast with (Sharples 2006). The range of eroding swampy peat deposits, artificial structures such as sea walls, Tasmanian coastal landforms in originally laid down in a swale behind the existing potential for natural combination with likely processes the foredune. Whilst sea level rise is shoreline adjustment to the changing of degradation allowed various likely to be a key driver, long-shore conditions will be further reduced.

49 Predicted impacts on of increased carbon emissions. life cycles of multicellular organisms, marine and coastal Although some individual species and proceeding trophic impacts on ecosystems may benefit from high CO2 and the food web. low pH conditions, it is likely that Possible impacts that have been Marine systems acidic oceans will have major impacts identified for Tasmanian marine on entire ecosystems. Evidence is systems include a decrease in The IPCC AR4 identifies that the already apparent of its impacts on marine productivity, which will most vulnerable marine ecosystems the growth and function of many again impact on food chains. The include the Southern Ocean. important planktonic species and at southern extension of warmer The impacts of increased CO2 this stage it is unclear what impacts waters will cause a southward shift absorption by the world’s oceans the levels of CO2 predicted for the in species distributions. Warmer are seen as one of the major issues next 100 years would have on the ocean temperatures in Tasmania now support species that were not viable due to cold water winter temperatures. Ecosystems that are Table 6 .1 Potential impacts on coastal landforms . usually in more temperate regions Increase in basal erosion and slumping, leading are shifting southward, and many of Cliffs and shore platforms to cliff retreat Tasmania’s endemic species have Increase in coastal landslips a limited capacity to adapt to such Increase in erosion, particularly on the seaward change. side Along with these changes is the Effects of more frequent, higher magnitude increase in alien species. Alien storm surges on low-lying coasts species in the marine environment Continued erosion of wide beaches can simply migrate with the warming Complete removal of sand from narrow conditions from more northern beaches areas or be introduced as plankton Beaches, spits and barriers Rapid removal of sand in front of artificial through ballast discharge. Already sea-walls, as soon as wave reflection becomes there are observable changes common in faunal assemblages within the Undermining and collapse of sea-walls with Tasmanian marine environment, shallow foundations not only impacting abundance of Potential accretion if longshore sand supply local organisms but also resulting outstrips seaward transport in habitat alteration. An example Progressive erosion of soft clay-gravel shores of southward migration is the Undercutting and erosion once wave attack Centrostephanus rodgersii (sea reaches the backshore zone urchin), which is now self established Coastal dunes Increased exposure of sand to prevailing winds in Tasmania, presumably by larval likely to initiate dune movement inland transport by the EAC. Outbreaks are known to cause barrens directly Submergence of the present intertidal zone affecting ecosystems that are vital Intertidal areas Erosion of salt-marshes and landward for significant fisheries such as the migration of coastal ecosystems abalone industry. The urchin is now

50 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Predicted temperature rise will lead to a reduction in winter sea-ice coverage in Antarctic waters. Krill thrives in the sea ice and any loss will reduce the amount of food available to whales . Migratory whales would have to travel farther south to reach food-rich areas, needing more energy for longer migration journeys and suffering from shorter feeding seasons . (Photo: Drew Lee) .

able to produce viable offspring in (anchored to waters above a winter minimum the ocean floor) of 12°C. Warming of eastern invertebrate Tasmanian waters now contribute to zone. There are a self-sustaining population (Johnson likely to be changes et al . 2005) in the distribution and composition of seagrass Observable range extension has and other macro-algae been identified for phytoplankton communities (Bishop and Kelaher species including Noctiluca scintillans . 2007). For example, some seagrass Formerly only recorded in more species are both temperature and temperate waters, this species to declines in krill abundance. Seals light-sensitive. Photosynthetic has for the last several years been may be impacted by changes in fish groups such as brown algae and observed as an over winter resident assemblages as well as increased seagrass may benefit from climate in Tasmanian waters. The European fisheries pressures, which will lower change by increasing their biomass Shore Crab (Carcinus maenas) is food availability. through increased CO2 availability another introduced predator that (Guinotte and Fabry 2008). These issues will in turn impact has very recently rapidly extended the ability for seabird populations its range into east coast Tasmania, Significant fisheries rely on Tasmanian with high site fidelity (mostly correlating with declines in the marine ecosystems. CSIRO predicts procellariiformes) to relocate, though abundance of marine organisms that in 50 years, Tasmanian fisheries species with low site fidelity such as (Walton et al . 2002). can expect a marked reduction gulls, terns and gannets may be able (64%) in catch rates even with A decline in marine biodiversity is to respond to such changes in food careful management. Important highly likely. Tasmania’s kelp forests availability. Other potential climate temperate-water aquaculture (an important fisheries habitat) change impacts for the higher order operations may be threatened by are already reducing in distribution species include an alteration of rising sea surface temperatures, and and abundance. Large declines currents and upwelling areas, which abalone and rock lobster fisheries over the last 50 years have been will affect the foraging behaviour are threatened by the likely effects attributed to rising sea temperature of seabirds. Also, the expansion of of climate change. These species (Edyvane 2003; Edgar et al . 2005). Australian Fur Seals into southern are extremely important to the Like kelp, cold water corals also islands (Maatsuyker Group), will have economic sustainability of Tasmanian act as a keystone species, creating implications for rare New Zealand fisheries. structurally diverse habitat, and are Fur Seals that utilise this area as their expected to decline in response to The impact of climate change on fish primary habitat. both warming and increased oceanic and krill populations will in turn have Changes in timing of phytoplankton acidity. A major reduction in rainfall an impact on higher order predators production will have implications on could threaten the unique Bathurst such as seals, whales, seabirds, and migratory species such as humpback Channel marine and estuarine penguins. Species that rely on and southern right whales and community through reduction in Tasmania as a staging point to exploit seabirds which may not have the the depth and transparency of the Antarctic krill will be impacted by evolutionary plasticity to adapt. halocline (a strong vertical salinity ice depletion and resulting loss of The changes in timing of migrations gradient) and increased penetration krill abundance. Krill-based whale would have an effect on social of macroalgae into the sessile species are likely to shift in response

51 Table 6 .2 Potential impacts on coastal vegetation structure (cohorts). Low fecundity Potential Impacts Tasmanian Examples makes whales highly sensitive to Riparian huon pine communities on the climate change, especially as many Gordon and Pieman Rivers on the west coast populations are still recovering from Salt intrusion into are vulnerable to the effects of salinity past levels of heavy exploitation. freshwater systems Coastal wetlands exposed to risk of altered Migrating whales are also heavily salinity, sediment inputs and nutrient loadings impacted on changes much further Coastal rainforest on soft sediments afield than Tasmania, such as whales relying on sea ice extent and krill Tidal surges / inundation Loss of marsupial lawns (Roberts 2008) availability. Table 6.3 summarises Loss of saltmarsh (Prahalad 2009) some projected climate change The endangered Southport heath (Epacris impacts on marine ecosystems. stuartii), with a highly restricted coastal distribution, has been affected by storm surges Estuaries Storm surges / salt spray Increased seafog events that trap salt-laden air have led to widespread death of coastal The evidence that has emerged of eucalypts in a number of regions of Tasmania catastrophic losses of shell (mollusc) (Maria Island, north coast) in recent years. species over the past 150 years in Species and ecosystems Marram grass out-competing native grasses shallow, sheltered estuarine waters that favour new climate of the south-east (Samson and Edgar saltmarsh may migrate inland if suitable habitat conditions may out- 2001), highlights the uncertainty is available compete other vegetation relating to events that have occurred Reduction in area of beach grasslands and over long periods of time as well as beach sedgelands. changes that continue today. These loss of frontline beach foredune shrubland losses were previously undetected. communities such as coast beardheath Other changes to species (Leucopogon parviflorus) shrubland. distributions in estuaries are loss of coastal communities such as sandy predicted. For example, the beaches and dunes, coastal wetlands and Australian grayling (Prototroctes saltmarshes where they are bounded by maraena) is an estuarine-dependent environments not conducive to landward species that has experienced migration declines on Tasmania’s east coast Loss of coastal habitat marsupial lawns - however the community probably as a result of changes appears is capable of establishing within an in freshwater flows to estuaries eroding beach environment. eg Hannet Inlet in (Edgar 2007). The spotted handfish WHA (Brachionichthys hirsutus) is found coastal tussock grasslands in dune systems in the Derwent estuary with are expected to be reduced. This will put an estimated total population threatened species and restricted distribution of 3,000–5,000 individuals. An species found only on coastal dunes at risk. increase in water temperature of In north-west Tasmania these include Coast 1.5º C is likely to put the spotted speedwell Veronica novae hollandiae and handfish outside its climate range Stackhousia spathulata . (Edgar 2008). Changes in terrestrial

52 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Analysing recently obtained saltmarsh vegetation and extent data for the Pitt Water and Lauderdale areas of Hobart with old (1975) datasets have indicated that several saltmarshes at Duckhole Rivulet have undergone numerous changes over the past three decades caused by anthropogenic impacts, climate change and sea level rise . Low saltmarsh plants have replaced taller long-lived plants as the dominant species, leading to a change in the vegetation community composition . In addition extensive areas within the marsh have become denuded of vegetation with the creation of salt pans (in the back of the marsh) and degrading areas (in the middle marsh), and shoreline erosion . (Photo: Vishnu Prahalad) .

runoff driven by changes in rainfall patterns and extreme storm events, are all likely to put estuarine- dependent species under threat. Other concerns include changes in estuarine fisheries and habitats, and increased vulnerability from marine pests and weeds.

Inundation of low-lying areas around Tasmanian estuaries could impact Table 6 .3 Potential impacts on the marine environment saltmarshes, wetlands and intertidal Physical climate change sandflats (important wading bird Potential impact indicator habitat). For example, inundation Southward retreat of endemic habitats, around the Derwent Estuary could keystone species and faunal assemblages, potentially impact saltmarshes, movement limited by southern coastline and wetlands and 1,000 ha of intertidal habitats. sandflats (Whitehead 2009). Increased sea surface temperatures Increased growth rates and earlier maturity of some fish and squid species. Coastal systems More favourable conditions for the The Fourth Assessment Report establishment of introduced marine pests of the Intergovernmental Panel Potential loss of cold water corals and on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) important structural habitats. identified that coasts and low-lying Directly impact calcification rate of key marine areas are highly vulnerable to the organisms such as coccolithophores, pteropods potential impacts of climate change Increased oceanic acidity More energy required to construct shells over coming decades due to their Fish find it more difficult to transport oxygen exposure to climate change and sea when their tissues become more acidic and level rise (Nicholls et al . 2007). The their growth slows report also identified that coastal Alterations to the timing and location of wind systems are naturally dynamic driven upwelling with some coastal systems more vulnerable than others. Coastal Changes in zonal winds Changes to foraging areas for marine wetland ecosystems and saltmarshes predators are considered particularly Potential changes to larval transport system

53 Climate change is predicted to have significant impacts on subantarctic penguins, particularly through changes to their food supply and through loss of breeding areas . Researchers studying King Penguins have found that warm-water events negatively impact adult survival and breeding success . (Photo: Jennie Whinam) .

pests and pathogens, habitat particularly susceptible to climate fragmentation, land use and change. coastline change. Changes in Other features were accepted by coastal geomorphology can have the IUCN as meeting the World profound impacts on availability Heritage criterion regarding of different habitats on the coast. superlative natural features, notably vulnerable. Table 6.2 provides some examples the spectacular steep escarpments Other systems of potential changes in coastal and uplifted palaeo-shorelines, have a higher adaptive capacity vegetation. because of their naturally dynamic extensive subantarctic peat beds, large numbers of lakes, pools and nature and ability to accrete new Tasmania’s subantarctic sediments. islands - Macquarie Island superlative examples of subantarctic vegetation (Department of The modifications to coastal Climate change is predicted to be Environment, Sport and Territories conditions likely to be brought most pronounced at high latitudes 1996). These features are all about by climate change will have a (Meehl et al . 2007), and will directly potentially subject to climate change major impact on the higher order impact on the flora and fauna of effects. Perhaps most important species. The Bass Strait Islands are an subantarctic islands (Barnes et al . from a geoconservation perspective important habitat for marine species, 2006). Macquarie Island Nature are the organosols, and the effect but inundation by rising sea levels Reserve is the key Tasmanian that any significant loss due to and increased storm surges is likely subantarctic natural asset potentially climate change may have on the to result in a reduction in breeding at risk from climate change impacts. rate of slope processes. Sensitivity areas for seals and seabirds. Coastal to loss of peat has already been Macquarie Island Nature Reserve nesting of species such as penguins, demonstrated by rabbit-induced is one of the most valuable nature terns, gulls and petrels and storm slope failures (Scott and Kirkpatrick reserves in the world, internationally petrels will be impacted by sea level 2008). rise, an increase in the formation recognised for its conservation, of steep dune walls, which will limit geological, ecological and scientific Macquarie Island has extensive access, and submergence of low-lying values. It is a World Heritage Area, congregations of wildlife on low-lying islands and important roosting areas a Biosphere Reserve, and is listed coastal regions, including Royal and during storm surges. The impacts on the National Heritage Register. King penguins (especially during the will also affect seals, with a large Macquarie Island is situated about breeding season), and impressive increase in stochastic pup mortality 1,500 kilometres south-east of colonies of elephant seals. Penguins on low-lying breeding colonies such Tasmania, about half way between are likely to be the most affected as Reid Rocks. Breeding areas may Tasmania and Antarctica. It is the group of seabirds on Macquarie have to shift in response to changes only island in the world composed Island. Four penguin species breed in upwelling due to changes in wind entirely of oceanic crust and rocks in the reserve. King Penguins patterns. from the mantle, deep below the (~500,000 birds) and Gentoo earth’s surface. World Heritage listing Penguins (~3,800 birds) are present Coastal vegetation is exposed to a of Macquarie Island was principally all year round, while the Rockhopper complex of interacting processes based upon the geoscientific values (~100,000 birds) and Royal Penguins triggered by climate change, including of the exposed oceanic lithosphere. (~850,000 birds) are present from biological and ecological pressures As a bedrock geology feature September to April. This island is interacting with introduced weeds, those values are not considered also critical habitat for a number of

54 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Climate change is already affecting the amount of squid and fish available for seals to eat. In addition seals may be affected by loss of habitat due to sea level rise, and by sea ice loss in the Southern Ocean . (Photo: Rowan Trebilco) .

thousands of breeding penguins on subantarctic Marion Island) and (including the endemic royals) and sweet vernal grass (Anthoxanthum seals (including the listed threatened odoratum), both agricultural weed elephant seals), all of which are species, have already been removed threatened restricted to breeding on the coastal from known single populations seabird species, terraces/beaches. (Copson and Whinam 2001). The including four species of albatross isthmus, with the entire associated Rabbit breeding has significantly (three endangered, one vulnerable) station infrastructure required for increased from producing a single and nine species of petrels (three conservation management, is likely successful litter per year to 2-3 endangered, two vulnerable and to be inundated in the future as a litters per year, as the burrows are one rare species), all of which may consequence of sea level rise, with no longer flooded regularly. This has be susceptible to changes in food a reported increase in sea surges resulted in widespread devastation availability and foraging areas. during recent storms. on the slopes and to the flora; Since 1994, the population of the a shifting prey base, with rabbits Azorella cushion (Azorella wandering albatross on Macquarie plentiful across the island, which macquariensis) is an endemic keystone Island has remained stable, at has led to changes in the nutrient species of fjaeldmark on Macquarie approximately 10 breeding pairs cycle for plants; the spread of bird Island . There has been major dieback each year. However recent declines predators away from traditional food in the Azorella during 2009/10, with in the number of chicks hatched sources (rookeries, seal colonies) up to 90% of affected areas dead . and fledged are a cause for serious with consequent impacts on It is not yet clear as to what has concern for the long-term survival of burrowing bird species, aggravated caused the dieback, but is likely to this population. The World Wildlife by the loss of vegetation cover. be a combination of environmental Fund has noted that increasing air stresses - such as drier conditions A combination of drier conditions temperatures over the Southern and increased rabbit numbers - and and rabbit impacts has resulted Ocean since the 1960s has coincided a possible pathogen . (Photo: Julie in a widespread increase in the with a decrease in the abundance McInnes) . of the wandering and black-browed herbaceous plant species buzzy albatross, both of which breed in burr (Acaena magellanica) on Australian waters. Warmer waters Macquarie Island, a change that are more nutrient-poor than cooler has also been observed on the waters and the success of seabird Kerguelen archipelago. While this feeding has been correlated with species is native to subantarctic instances where a high degree of islands, it tends to cover vast areas mixing between colder deeper in a dense sward of vegetation, nutrient-rich water and warmer outcompeting other species by nutrient-poor surface water occurs either physically covering the (WWF 2008). plant or making establishment of other species difficult. Other likely major climate change There is a greater risk that impacts on values include the weed species will establish from significant impact of sea level the accidental importation of rise on the coastal terrace, with seed propagules. Dock (Rumex consequences for the giant bull kelp, crispus)(now an invasive species

55 Responding to Climate Change 7. The Department of Primary involve a range of organisations and Mitigation and Industries, Parks, Water and partners, along with the broader adaptation Environment (DPIPWE) will Tasmanian community. In particular continue to assess and monitor the Tasmanian Climate Futures The National Climate Change Strategy the impacts of climate change on Project, available in 2010, will assist 2004-2007 (NRMMC 2004) has natural values, and will concurrently in refining climate projections identified that adaptation approaches develop a range of adaptation for Tasmania to enable a better will be necessary to complement strategies aimed at building understanding of regional variability mitigation measures to reduce ecosystems resilience. Resilience of the potential climate impacts in Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. is defined as the ability of natural order to inform risk assessments However, it should be noted that the systems to recover or “bounce and the development of scenario IPCC has identified that adaptation back” from natural disturbances planning and adaptation approaches approaches may only be effective at (Walker et al . 2006). Building at more local scales. scenarios where warming is limited resilience into natural systems will to <2-3°C (Fischlin et al . 2007). TasFACE is investigating the effects of allow environmental and climatic elevated CO2 and temperature on a The Council of Australian variability to buffer the impacts of species-rich temperate grassland at Governments (COAG) identified climate change, and will involve the Pontville in southern Tasmania . Free-Air that a range of values including maintenance of habitats, landscape Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) natural ecosystems would benefit and ecological connectivity (Manning is a method used by researchers that from early regional adaptation 2007).The need to increase the raises the concentration of CO2 in a measures. Adaptation reduces resilience of our natural systems specified area and allows the response the vulnerability of the natural has been identified in many climate of plant growth to be measured . environment to the potential change adaptation approaches (e.g. The temperature is raised by 2°C impacts of climate change by NRMMC 2004, Steffen et al . 2009, with infrared lamps .The experiment building resilience. Increasingly the Heller and Zavaleta 2009), with has been running for eight years the maintenance of biodiversity and already there have been considered critical (Peterson et al . some significant changes 1998). detected .The results This preliminary assessment will also have implications guide the initial formulation of policy for agriculture in responses, including monitoring Tasmania . strategies and adaptive management responses. Planning for uncertainty will be a key aspect of adaptation approaches, with an emphasis on risk management.

Improved knowledge on the projected impacts of climate change on our natural values will come from many sources including systematic monitoring and research, risk assessments and modeling, and will

56 Responding to Climate Change emphasis is on ecosystem-based (Manning 2007), along with of extant ecosystems in each approaches to adaptation that “minimising the loss” (Dunlop and bioregion in the NRS. However integrate the use of biodiversity Brown 2008). Tasmania has one bioregion that and ecosystem services into overall does not meet the NRS target to adaptation strategies (Secretariat Increase the protection of have 10% of its area in reserves. of the Convention on Biological habitat At the ecological community Diversity 2009).These approaches scale, Tasmania has 8% of its 145 Conserving natural terrestrial, include sustainable management, native vegetation communities at freshwater and marine ecosystems conservation and restoration of a reservation level of <10%. The and restoring degraded ecosystems ecosystems. The World Bank has majority of these communities are is essential to climate change recently stated that ecosystem- primarily located on private land. approaches. Protecting existing based approaches to mitigation and The role of protection measures and ecosystems and a diversity of adaptation should be an essential management of private land that habitats is a fundamental adaptation pillar in national strategies to address is sympathetic to biodiversity will approach. In the face of the climate change (World Bank 2009). be a very important component of uncertainty of the specific impacts adaptation approaches in Tasmania. of climate change, protection of Principles for managing a diversity of habitats provides Reduce the impacts of natural assets against heterogeneity that acts as an current threats the impacts of climate insurance policy. change Australia’s biodiversity is already The development of the National suffering from the impact of a range Some key adaptation management Reserve System (NRS) has been of current threats, including habitat principles that have been recognised identified as a priority climate fragmentation - climate change will in international and national change adaptation approach for the exacerbate the existing threats as adaptation approaches are described protection of Australia’s biodiversity well as being an additional threat in below. (Dunlop and Brown 2008), its own right. Minimising the impacts embracing the CAR reserve design of existing threats in both protected Maintain and protect well- principles of comprehensiveness, functioning ecosystems areas and the broader landscape is adequacy and representativeness a key adaptation principle (Dunlop (JANIS 1997). Linking protected The maintenance of biodiversity is and Brown 2008). Minimising the area establishment with off-reserve one simple but effective means of impacts of existing threats has been conservation efforts is a key action maintaining ecosystem function and suggested as the only practical large- identified inAustralia’s Strategy for the building resilience into ecosystems. scale adaptation approach for marine National Reserve System 2009-2030 . Conservation planning at a ecosystems (Robinson et al. 2005). landscape-scale that allows for the Tasmania has a world-class reserve protection of ecological function Natural disturbance regimes system that covers more than and the associated ecosystem including floods, wildfires, and storm 40% of the state. All Tasmanian services would prioritise the value of events are predicted to change bioregions have reached the large, intact, healthy areas of native and intensify under climate change National Reserve System (NRS) vegetation. In the future, maintaining scenarios. Proactive management Direction for Comprehensiveness, the adaptability of ecosystems may may help reduce the impacts. For which aims to have examples become a key management goal example, controlled burning and of at least 80% of the number under climate change scenarios other techniques could be used to

57 Monitoring in buttongrass plots established in 1986 on the Propsting Range in Western Tasmania . This is one of several mountain ranges in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area where long- term data is being used to monitor the impacts of climate change on the vegetation of mountain tops . This project is being undertaken in conjunction with the University of Tasmania . (Photo: Mick Brown)

resilience partnership with DPIPWE, are and participants in this international allowing conservation project, led by Kew ‘space for Gardens in the UK, that aims to nature to provide an “insurance policy” against self-adapt’ the extinction of plants in the wild (Mansergh and by storing seeds for future use. The Cheal 2007). construction of a Seed Bank facility is under way. The project aims to Active interventions collect seed from most of Tasmania’s rare and threatened flora, including Rehabilitation of habitat, plant species identified as potentially reduce restoration and revegetation will at risk from climate change. the potential impacts of catastrophic all need to be actively considered wildfires, particularly on fire- as part of our climate change Monitoring the impacts sensitive native vegetation such as preparation and adaptation of climate change on Tasmania’s unique conifer and alpine approaches. These strategies can be key natural assets communities. However, there is used to extend and buffer existing likely to be a reduced safe window habitat and to restore ecological Monitoring is an integral part of of opportunity for fuel reduction connectivity where it is seen to be managing natural values in the light burning to be implemented. advantageous. Restoration of riparian of climate change. It is needed to zones provides particularly effective detect change, trends, and trends in Maintain viable, connected ecological returns (Jones et al . 2007). condition of natural assets and to and genetically diverse However, planning for ecosystem identify thresholds for management populations restoration must now consider the actions for active crisis intervention effects of climate change; otherwise The movement of species between for priority assets. Monitoring there may be failures in the medium- habitat patches is vital for many will inform land managers (and to long-term due to changing species, and will become increasingly researchers) on the adoption of conditions. For example, the so as the climatic envelope of many appropriate adaptive management regeneration of forests after logging species shifts with changing climatic strategies in the face of climate must use appropriate provenances conditions. This movement can change. and species for the anticipated occur on many scales ranging from climatic conditions. Translocations A review of current monitoring data local to regional to continental, and may become critical for some and pre-existing vegetation datasets the habitat can be continuous or in ecosystems such as low-lying islands that might be suitable for monitoring the form of disconnected stepping that are threatened by sea level rise the impacts of climate change has stones. Appropriate levels of and species on mountain tops that been undertaken for Tasmania landscape connectivity to allow for may have no habitat to migrate to. (Brown 2009a), with a more detailed species and plant communities to assessment for the Tasmanian migrate to more favourable habitats One particular facet of Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area in response to climate change, and active intervention approaches to (Brown 2009b). to allow for recombinations of climate change is the Millennium species assemblages, is an important Seed Bank Project. The Royal strategy for building ecosystem Tasmanian Botanical Gardens, in

58 Responding to Climate Change 8. Glossary of Terms Adaptation Biodiversity Climate

Adjustment in natural or human The variability among living ‘Average weather’ described in systems over time to a new or organisms from all sources such as terms of the mean and variability changing environment, including terrestrial, marine and other aquatic of relevant quantities such as anticipatory and reactive adaptation, ecosystems and the ecological temperature, precipitation and wind private and public adaptation, and complexes of which they are part. It over a period of time ranging from autonomous and planned adaptation. encompasses diversity within species, months to thousands or millions Various types of adaptation can be between species and of ecosystems. of years. Climate can also be used distinguished, including anticipatory, It is derived from the term ‘biological to describe the state, including a autonomous and planned adaptation: diversity’. statistical description, of the climate system. The classical period of time - Anticipatory adaptation – Biome is 30 years, as defined by the World Adaptation that takes place Meteorological Organization. before impacts of climate change A regional ecosystem with a distinct are observed (also referred to as assemblage of vegetation, animals Climate change proactive adaptation). and physical environment often - Autonomous adaptation – reflecting a certain climate and soil, Changes in the state of the climate Adaptation that does not and often defined by the dominant system over time due to natural constitute a conscious response lifeform (e.g. grassland, wetland) variability or as a result of human to climatic stimuli but is triggered activity. The United Nations by ecological changes in natural Carbon sink Framework Convention on Climate systems and by market or Change (UNFCCC) defines climate welfare changes in human Pool or reservoir that absorbs or change as “a change of climate systems (also referred to as takes up released carbon from which is attributed directly or spontaneous adaptation). another part of the carbon cycle. indirectly to human activity that - Planned adaptation – Adaptation The four sinks are the atmosphere, alters the composition of the global that is the result of a deliberate terrestrial biosphere (usually atmosphere and which is in addition policy decision, based on an including freshwater systems), to natural variability observed over awareness that conditions have oceans, and sediments. The process comparable time periods.” changed or are about to change by which carbon sinks remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and that action is required to Connectivity return to, maintain, or achieve a is known as carbon sequestration. desired state. The opposite term is carbon source. The extent to which ecosystems are joined to each other that allows Adaptive management organisms to move across the A systematic process for continually landscape and interact with each improving management policies other (e.g. breeding, gene exchange). and practices by learning from the outcomes of operational programs - put simply this refers to “learning by doing”.

59 Ecological community Ecosystem services Greenhouse gas (GHG)

A naturally co-occurring assemblage The benefits derived from Gaseous constituents such as water of species that occur in a particular ecosystems. These include vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide type of habitat (e.g. forest, alpine). provisioning services such as food (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), Also referred to as community. and water, regulating services such methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) as flood and disease control, cultural in the atmosphere. These gases, Ecological processes services, such as spiritual, recreational both natural and anthropogenic, can and cultural benefits, and supporting absorb and emit radiation at specific Physical, chemical and biological services, such as nutrient cycling, that wavelengths within the spectrum of actions or events that play an maintain the conditions for life on thermal infrared radiation emitted by essential part in maintaining Earth. Also referred to as ecosystem the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere, ecosystem integrity. Four goods and services. and by clouds causing the warming fundamental ecological processes greenhouse effect. are the cycling of water, the cycling Endemic of nutrients, the flow of energy, and Intergovernmental Panel biodiversity (as an expression of the Native flora and fauna species that on Climate Change 4th process of evolution). are naturally restricted to a specified Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) region or locality. Tasmanian endemic The Fourth Assessment by Working Ecosystem species are restricted in their distribution in Tasmania. Group II of the Intergovernmental A dynamic and complex system of Panel on Climate Change (IPCC living organisms and their physical Global warming AR4) is an assessment of current environment interacting with each scientific understanding of the other as a functional unit. The extent Gradual increase, observed impacts of climate change on natural, of an ecosystem may range from or projected, in global surface managed and human systems, and very small spatial scales to the entire temperature, referred to as the the capacity of these systems to Earth. global temperature, as one of the adapt and their vulnerability. consequences of the enhanced Ecosystem approach greenhouse effect, which is induced Mitigation by anthropogenic emissions The ecosystem approach is of greenhouse gases into the A human intervention to reduce a strategy for the integrated atmosphere. the sources or enhance the sinks of management of land, water and greenhouse gases. living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use Natural values in an equitable way. At the Fifth Meeting of the Conference of This term covers the range of the Parties to the Convention biodiversity and geodiversity native on Biodiversity in 2000 the to a given area. ecosystem approach was adopted as the primary framework for the implementation of the Convention.

60 Glossary of Terms Novel climate Resilience United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Future climate lacking a modern The ability of a system to absorb Change (UNFCCC) analogue, characterized by e.g. high impacts before a threshold is seasonality of temperature, warmer reached where the system changes 192 countries around the world than any present climate globally, to a different state (also referred to have joined an international treaty with spatially variable shifts in as ecological resilience). that sets general goals and rules precipitation, and increase in the risk for confronting climate change. of species reshuffling into future no- Sea level rise The Convention has the goal of analog communities. Novel climates preventing “dangerous” human are projected to develop primarily in Increase in the mean level of the interference with the climate the tropics and subtropics. ocean. Eustatic sea level rise is a system. The UNFCCC was one change in global average sea level of three conventions adopted brought about by an increase in the at the 1992 “Rio Earth Summit.” Ocean acidification volume of the world ocean. Relative The other conventions (the A decrease in the pH of seawater sea level rise occurs where there is Convention on Biological Diversity due to the uptake of anthropogenic a local increase in the level of the and the Convention to Combat carbon dioxide. ocean relative to the land, which Desertification) involve matters might be due to ocean rise and/ strongly affected by climate change. Refugia or land level subsidence. In areas Attempts are being made to subject to rapid land-level uplift, coordinate the work of the three Evolutionary refugia are regions relative sea level can fall. agreements. in which certain types or suites of organisms are able to persist Terrestrial ecosystems Upwelling during a period in which most of the original geographic range A community of organisms and their Movement of water from depth to becomes uninhabitable because environment that occurs on the the surface, usually enriching upper of climate change. Thus they are landmasses of continents and islands. waters with nutrients from deeper areas reflecting past environmental waters. regimes and which contain high numbers of endemic species. The term may also be used by ecologists to mean a region where a species or a suite of species persist for short periods when large parts of their habitat become unusable because of changed conditions e.g. from fire, drought or flooding.

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79 Notes

80 Notes

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