EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA

Bloomberg Philanthropies

USVI Hurricane Recovery and Resilience Task Force 1 Hurricanes Irma and Maria, both Category 5 storms with wind gusts of up to 178 MPH at their centers, impacted the USVI within two weeks of each other on September 6 and September 20, 2017. most affected the St. Thomas-St. John district and damaged St. Croix as SAFFIR- well; most affected St. Croix, which by then had become the staging ground for recovery operations for areas damaged by Irma, SIMPSON and further damaged what was already damaged on St. Thomas and St. John. The hurricanes caused five direct deaths in the Territory. SCALE: CATEGORY 5

DEFINITION HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA

HURRICANE IRMA Catastrophic damage will occur: Hurricane Irma approached the US as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 178 MPH at its center. On September 6, the storm’s A high percentage of framed center passed just north of St. Thomas around 2 p.m. AST, leading to sustained homes will be destroyed, winds of 106 MPH and gusts of up to 137 MPH as measured by surface with total roof failure and observation stations. Irma moved northwest and passed roughly 50 miles wall collapse. Fallen trees north of around 8 p.m. AST on September 6. The final path of and power poles will isolate the hurricane was west of the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) predictions, residential areas. Power which had also predicted the storm would turn northward earlier than it did.1 outages will last for weeks to The wind at the hurricane’s center attained near maximum strength as the possibly months. Most of the hurricane approached St. Thomas (see chart: Wind speed at Hurricane Irma area will be uninhabitable for center vs. distance to downtown Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas). weeks or months.

The NHC began providing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) Wind speeds: 157 MPH or for Hurricane Irma starting on September 1; IDSS included briefings higher coordinated through the FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team and included the National Hurricane Center USVI and Puerto Rico as well as several states. The NHC issued the first Hurricane Watch for Irma to the USVI at 3 p.m. AST on September 4; this changed to a Hurricane Warning issued on September 5 at 3 p.m. AST. The Hurricane Warning was discontinued on September 7 at 3 a.m. AST (see table: Timeline of Hurricanes Irma and Maria).

Irma produced significant in the St. Thomas-St. John District. While the National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge on St. Thomas (Charlotte Amalie) went offline during the hurricane and could not transmit a peak storm surge level, NHC estimated a surge of at least 2.3 ft. and possibly greater. Hurricane Irma caused extensive damage

Hurricane Irma, pre-and post-event night lights variation NASA 1 John P. Cangialosi, Andrew S. Latto, and Robbie Berg. Tropical Report: Hurricane Irma. Report no. AL112017. National Hurricane Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association | . May 30, 2018. Accessed June 15, 2018. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf.

USVI Hurricane Recovery and Resilience Task Force 23 Hurricanes Irma and Maria

Hurricane Irma Hurricane Maria Category 5 5 date September 6 September 20 Landfall location St. Thomas / St. John St. Croix Worst-affected areas St. Thomas / St. John St. Croix Maximum measured 106 MPH* 107 MPH* sustained wind speeds

Maximum measured 137 MPH* 137 MPH* HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA wind gusts in the USVI Rainfall Data not available* 5 in.+* Storm surge 0.60 – 2.28 ft.+* 1.48 – 2.85 ft.+* Storm tide 0.50 – 1.7 ft.+* 1.61 – 3.17 ft.+* Direct deaths 3 2

* Precipitation and tide measuring instruments were knocked offline or destroyed

STORM SURGE, STORM TIDE, AND INUNDATION

Wind speed at Hurricane Irma center vs. distance According to the NHC, “storm surge is to downtown Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas defined as the abnormal rise of water MPH, vertical axis; miles, horizontal axis generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide, and 200 is expressed in terms of height above

180 normal tide levels. Because storm surge represents the deviation from normal 160 water levels, it is not referenced to a 140 vertical datum. 120 “Storm tide is defined as the water 100 level due to the combination of storm 80 surge and the astronomical tide, and

60 is expressed in terms of height above a vertical datum, i.e., the North American 40 Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88) or 20 Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW).

-3,000 -2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 “Inundation is the total water level that occurs on normally dry ground as a Task Force analysis based on NHC data result of the storm tide, and is expressed in terms of height above ground level. At the coast, normally dry land is roughly defined as areas higher than the normal high tide line, or Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).”

USVI Hurricane Recovery and Resilience Task Force 24 throughout St. Thomas, St. John, Water Island, and Timeline of Hurricanes Irma and Maria the district’s surrounding smaller islands. Across the Territory, high wind speeds stripped foliage, September 1 IDSS for Irma brought down power and telephone lines, sheared off roofs, and turned debris into projectiles. Residents who followed instructions to shelter in place found September 4 Hurricane Watch issued for Irma themselves in a fight for survival as powerful winds sucked furniture out of homes after windows or doors blew out. People reported crawling atop their September 5 Hurricane Warning issued for Irma refrigerator to hide in the space between the fridge Seaports closed

and cabinetry, or piling furniture against doors and HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA lying on their back to press against the blockade with their feet. Although the damage to St. Croix was September 6 Airports closed Hurricane Irma landfall in the USVI not so extensive as that in the St. Thomas-St. John District, roughly 70 percent of St. Croix’s homes and structures still suffered some damage from the storm. September 7 Hurricane Warning lifted for Irma

Hurricane Irma was responsible for three direct deaths in the USVI.2 Extensive damage to power, September 14 IDSS for Maria Internet and cable lines resulted in an almost Territory-wide communications and power blackout. Residents of St. John, Water Island, and the USVI’s other smaller islands were stranded for days while September 17 Hurricane Watch issued for Maria ports were closed, ferries did not run, and sunken vessels made navigation treacherous. The damage to airports on St. Thomas and St. Croix effectively September 18 Hurricane Warning issued for stranded the entire USVI population for weeks Maria following Hurricane Irma—in many cases, trapping people who’d lost everything in the hurricane September 20 Hurricane Maria landfall in the and were ready to leave the USVI, only to endure USVI a second hurricane just two weeks later. Private individuals and charters alike began to run boats Hurricane Warning lifted for Maria between the USVI and Puerto Rico to give people a September 20 chance to get to the still-open San Juan airport (SJU).

August 25 September 10

St. Thomas St. John St. Thomas St. John

Impact of Hurricane Irma on leaf cover on St. Thomas and St. John NASA

2 Direct deaths are defined by the National Hurricane Center as “occurring as a direct result of the forces of the ... These include those persons who drowned in storm surge, rough seas, rip currents, and freshwater floods. Direct deaths also include casualties resulting from lightning and wind-related events (e.g., collapsing structures). Deaths occurring from such factors as heart attacks, house fires, electrocutions from downed power lines, vehicle accidents on wet roads, etc., are considered ‘indirect’ deaths.”

USVI Hurricane Recovery and Resilience Task Force 25 HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA

Hurricane Irma wind gust footprint Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization and Applied Research Associates

Wind gust speed (MPH), Hurricane Irma Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization and Applied Research Associates

USVI Hurricane Recovery and Resilience Task Force 26 The NHC began providing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) starting on September 14; IDSS included briefings coordinated through the HURRICANE MARIA FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team and included the Just 14 days after Hurricane Irma hit St. Thomas and USVI and Puerto Rico. The NHC issued the first St. John, Hurricane Maria bore down on St. Croix. Hurricane Watch for Maria to the USVI at 9 p.m. Starting on September 11, it took only five days for AST on September 17; this upgraded to a Hurricane a to form into Hurricane Maria on Warning issued on September 18 at 3 p.m. AST. The September 16, and by September 18, Maria was a Hurricane Warning was discontinued on September Category 5 storm. The hurricane made landfall on 20 at 9 p.m. AST.

St. Croix early in the morning on September 20 with HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA Although the tide gauge at Limetree Bay on St. Croix peak wind speeds at its center of 172 MPH as it passed measured a peak water level of 2.8 ft. relative to roughly 25 nautical miles south of the island. Peak Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), the sensor went sustained winds of 107 MPH with gusts of 137 MPH were offline during the storm and likely did not record the reported on St. Croix near the northeast edge of Maria’s actual highest water level. NOAA surge simulations eyewall. Maria continued west-northwestward toward suggest maximum inundation levels of 1-3 ft. above Puerto Rico, where it made landfall late in the morning ground level on St. Thomas and St. John. of September 20, causing catastrophic damage. The hurricane attained nearly maximum strength when Hurricane Maria affected all of the USVI, but it was nearest to St. Croix (see chart: Wind speed at St. Croix most severely, causing significant wind Hurricane Maria center vs. distance to downtown damage to roofs, structures, foliage, and aerial Christiansted). power and phone lines. The deluge of rain from

Wind speed at Hurricane Maria center vs. distance to downtown Christiansted MPH, vertical axis; miles, horizontal axis

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20 0 500 -500 1,500 1,000 -1,500 -1,000 2,500 3,500 2,000 3,000 4,000 Task Force analysis based on NHC data

Hurricane Maria, pre-and post-event night lights variation NASA

USVI Hurricane Recovery and Resilience Task Force 27 Maria resulted in widespread flooding and mudslides already damaged in Hurricane Irma (see graphic: throughout the Territory. St. Croix experienced at Hurricane Maria rainfall patterns). least an estimated 5-7 inches of rainfall; throughout the USVI—and especially in the St. Thomas-St. In the USVI, the hurricane was responsible for the John district—the rain further damaged structures direct deaths of two people. HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA

Hurricane Maria wind gust footprint Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization and Applied Research Associates

Hurricane Maria rainfall patterns NASA

USVI Hurricane Recovery and Resilience Task Force 28 Selected surface observations for Hurricanes Irma and Maria NHC reports for Hurricanes Irma and Maria

Minimum sea Maximum surface Flooding and precipitation level pressure wind speed

Storm Storm Total Instrument and Date/time Pressure Date/time Sustained Gust Estimated Coordinates surge tide rain identifier (UTC) (mb) (UTC) (MPH) (MPH) inundation (ft) (ft) (ft) (in)

Weatherflow site at 18.33N 05/1750 83 132 Rupert Rock (XRUP) 64.93W

Cyril E. King Airport 18.33N 06/1153 59^ 87^ (TIST) 64.97W HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA Weatherflow site at 18.28N 06/1653 06/1723 106 137 St. Thomas Buck Island (XBUK) 64.90W

NOS site at Charlotte 18.34N 06/1742 967.5 06/1736 63 98 1.45** 1.71** 1.3** Amalie, St. Thomas 64.92W (CHAV3)

Weatherflow site at 18.34N 06/1815 58 89 Savana Island (XSAV) 65.08W

NOS site at Lameshur 18.32N 06/1736 945.1 1.62 1.6 1.2 Irma St. John Bay, St. John (LAMV3) 64.72W

NOS site at 17.75N 06/1706 995.0 06/1642 38 58 2.28 2.01 1.70 Christiansted Harbor, 64.70W St. Croix (CHSV3)

Henry E. Rohlsen 17.68N 06/1653 969.6 06/1843 38 63 Airport (TISX) 64.90W St. Croix NOS site at Limetree 17.70N 06/1706 996.4 06/1848 49 61 0.60 0.80 0.50 Bay, St. Croix (LTBV3) 64.75W

Weatherflow site at 17.68N 06/1903 41 59 Sandy Point National 64.90W Wildlife Refuge, St. Croix (XCRX)

Weatherflow site at 18.33N 20/0701 993.6 20/0201 45* 64 St. Thomas Rupert Rock, 64.93W St. Thomas (XRUP)

NOS site at Lameshur 18.32N 20/0612 998.2 1.48 1.61 1.2 Bay, St. John (LAMV3) 64.72W St. John CarlCOOS buoy south 18.25N 20/0700 992.5 20/0830 47 64 of St. John (41052) 64.76W

NOS site at 17.75N 20/0518 978.4 20/0142 49 75 2.27 2.36 2.00 Maria Christiansted Harbor, 64.70W St. Croix (CHSV3)

NOS site at Lime Tree 17.70N 20/0342 976.1 20/0330 69* 102 2.85* 3.17* 2.80* Bay, St. Croix (LTBV3) 64.75W St. Croix Christiansted, 17.74N 20/0613 99 136 5.03 St. Croix (CVAV3) 64.62W

Weatherflow site at 17.68N 20/0538 950.1 20/0618 107 137 Sandy Point National 64.90W Wildlife Refuge, St. Croix (XCRX)

* Incomplete data ^ Site damaged during storm ** Station went offline and did not transmit a peak water level during the event. Peak values represent the highest transmitted prior to outage.

USVI Hurricane Recovery and Resilience Task Force 29