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A Statistical Study of Trends of Wheat Production in Districts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India

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A Statistical Study of Trends of Wheat Production in Districts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(4): 158-166 International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences ISSN: 2319-7706 Volume 9 Number 4 (2020) Journal homepage: http://www.ijcmas.com Original Research Article https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.904.020 A Statistical Study of Trends of Wheat Production in Districts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India Anvesha Singh*, Sri Sunil Kumar, Gopal Krishna Tiwari, Laxmi Devi and Babulal Department of Agricultural Statistics, Acharya Narendra Dev University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj – Ayodhya (UP), 224-229, India *Corresponding author ABSTRACT K e yw or ds Wheat, Growth, The paper analyses the trend in terms of production of wheat in Eastern Trends, Tabular and Uttar Pradesh. The growth has been examined by Compound Growth rate Graphical Representation, and Simple Growth rate from 1997-98 to 2014-15. The top five districts in Simple Growth wheat production according to three years moving average (2012-13, 2013- Rate (SGR) and Compound Growth 14, 2014-15) has also been analysed in this paper. Azamgarh, Barabanki, Rate (CGR) Siddharth Nagar, Jaunpur and Gorakhpur have been leading districts of Article Info Eastern Uttar Pradesh in terms of wheat production. There is increase in Wheat production and area from 1997-98 to 2014-15 in districts. Siddharth Accepted: Nagar is better in wheat production and growth rates in comparison to other 04 March 2020 Available Online: districts. 10 April 2020 Introduction German and Welsh language. Wheat has good nutrition profile with 12.1 per cent protein, Wheat (Triticum aestivum) the world‟s largest 1.8 per cent lipids, 1.8 per cent ash, 2.0 per cereal crop belongs to Graminae (Poaceae) cent reducing sugars, 6.7 per cent pentosans, family of the genus Triticum. It has been 59.2 per cent starch, 70 per cent total described as the „King of cereals‟ because of carbohydrates and provides 314Kcal/100g of the acreage it occupies, high productivity and food. It is also good source of minerals and the prominent position in the international vitamins. food grain trade. Wheat is consumed in a variety of ways such as bread, chapatti, For Wheat production target has been fixed in porridge, flour, suji etc. India for 2019 is 102.19 million tonnes against 100 million tonnes last year. Uttar The term “Wheat” is derived from many Pradesh is the largest state with maximum different locations, specifically from English, contribution towards national production 158 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(4): 158-166 (35.03 per cent) from a large area (35.12 per Statistical methodologies cent), but with productivity on a lower side of 2.7 tonnes/ha. The wheat production is Effect of change in area and productivity distributed in three agroclimatic zones, viz. on differential production western Uttar Pradesh (3.29 million ha), eastern UP (5.24 million ha) and central Uttar An attempt has been made to study the effect Pradesh (0.68 million ha). The area is 9.2 of change in area and productivity of crops on million ha, with a production of 24.5 million differential production between two points of tons and productivity of 2.7 tonnes/ha. The time. trend during the last five years has shown a marginal decline in production and Let P, A and Y be the production, area and productivity from nearly stable area of productivity of a particular crop at a given cultivation. Per cent of gross cropped area in point of time. The P can be expressed as 2013-2014 was 40.55. Wheat crop needs clay loam or loam texture and moderate water P = Y.A holding capacity soil and these features are found in Eastern Uttar Pradesh so this region Let ∆P, ∆A and ∆Y be the change in is suitable for wheat production. production, area and productivity of the crop after specific period of time. So we have The present investigation is proposed with the following objectives includes, to find out P+∆P = (A+∆A) (Y+∆Y) general profile of districts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh by way of tabular and graphical P+∆P = AY+∆AY+A∆Y+∆A∆Y representation and to obtain the Growth rates of area, production and yield of Wheat in Therefore we have different districts of Eastern UP based on Time-series data. ∆P = ∆AY+A∆Y+∆A∆Y Materials and Methods Thus the total differential production consists of three components: This paper dealt with materials and statistical methodologies to carry out the investigation ∆AY= Effect of change in area of crop undertaken. In order to study the trends of A∆Y= Effect of change in productivity of production, area and productivity in wheat of crop eastern Uttar Pradesh. ∆A∆Y=Interaction effect due to change in area and productivity of crop. The time series data pertaining to road length, canal length, number of tubewells, number of pumpsets, fertilizer consumption, electricity An attempt has been made to study the effect consumption in agriculture, irrigated area of change in area and productivity of crops on under rice and wheat has been procured from its logarithmic differential of production the website http://updes.up.nic.in/spatrika/ between two points of time. spatrika.htm by Economics and Statistics Division, Planning Department, Government Let , and be the production, area and of Uttar Pradesh. productivity respectively, of rice and wheat at 159 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(4): 158-166 a given point of time t. The can be expressed as The above equation is fitted by using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) of estimation. The linear growth rate is calculated by the = formula: Similarly let , and be the production, area and productivity, Linear growth rate (LGR %) = 100 respectively under crops at time point t-1. Then we have Compound function Compound fit has been given by the equation: = The ratio = a Or log = log a + t log b = . Where, Taking log of both side, we get is the characteristic (area, production or Log = Log + Log Or productivity of dependent Variable) t is the time in years, independent variable a and b are parameters Log ( ) – Log ( ) = Log ( ) – Log ( ) + Log ( ) – Log ( ) The parameters „a‟ and „b‟ are calculated by applying the method of Ordinary Least The above expression provided the Squares (OLS). The compound growth rate contribution of logarithmic area and (CGR %) is calculated by using the formula: productivity towards logarithmic change in crop production between two points of time, CGR (%) = (antilog b-1) 100 i.e. between t-1 and t. Trend and growth rate All growth rates are expressed in percentage. The best fitted function is judged on the basis Linear function of (coefficient of determination) . Linear fit has been given by the equation Results and Discussion = a + bt The first objective Where, To find out general profile of districts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh by way of tabular and is the characteristic (area, production or graphical representation (Fig. 1–3). productivity of dependent variable) An attempt has been made in this section to t is the time in years, independent variable capture the important features of Wheat a and b are constants or parameters production In Eastern Uttar Pradesh. 160 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(4): 158-166 From table 1, 2 and 3 data. Highest production of Wheat has been The annual growth rates of production, area observed in Azamgarh district followed and productivity of Wheat has been worked by Jaunpur, Barabanki, Gorakhpur and out using two functions, viz. simple growth Siddharth Nagar districts based on 3 rates (SGR) and compound growth rates years moving average. (CGR) for the districts of Eastern Uttar Highest area under Wheat has been observed Pradesh. The results are presented and in Azamgarh district in respect to top 5 discussed in table 5. districts of wheat production. Highest productivity of Wheat has been Results of table 5 observed in Siddharth Nagar districts based on 3 years moving average. Highest area growth rate (i.e. 2.01 percent) has been observed in Baharaich district, Area and productivity contribution by direct which is followed by Mau, Barabanki and log method and Cofficient of Variation and Siddharth Nagar districts. (CV) of districts at top 5 positions in Highest production growth rate (i.e. 3.67 production of Wheat percent) has been observed in Area and productivity contribution by direct SiddharthNagar district, which is and log method and CV of top 5 districts in followed by Sonbhadra and Barabanki. production are represented in table 4. Highest productivity growth rate (i.e. 3.81 percent) has been observed in The second objective Sonbhadra district, which is followed by Shravasti and Siddharth Nagar. To obtain the Growth rates of area, production and yield of Wheat in different districts of Eastern UP based on Time-series Table.1 Top 5 districts in Production of Wheat DISTRICT Area(in hectares) Production(in metric tons) AZAMGARH 233440.33 627833.00 JAUNPUR 210369.67 545443.33 BARABANKI 165901.33 532387.00 GORAKHPUR 190541.33 506551.67 SIDDHARTH 155775.00 506342.33 NAGAR 161 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(4): 158-166 Table.2 Productivity of top 5 districts in wheat according to production based on 3 years moving average DISTRICT Productivity (q/ha) AZAMGARH 28.48 JAUNPUR 25.95 BARABANKI 32.13 GORAKHPUR 26.61 SIDDHARTH NAGAR 32.50 Table.3 Productivity of top districts in wheat based on 3 years moving average DISTRICT Productivity(q/ha) SIDDHARTH NAGAR 32.42 BARABANKI 32.13 AMBEDKAR NAGAR 29.97 MAHARAGANJ 28.98 SANT KABIR NAGAR 28.55 Table.4 Area and productivity contribution and CV of wheat Districts By Direct method By log method CV Area Productivity Area Productivity
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