GPI's Research Agenda
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BMGF Malaria 2-10-14 (Public)
A conversation with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation malaria team on December 9, 2013 Participants • Alan Magill — Director, Malaria program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • David Brandling-Bennett — Senior Advisor, Malaria program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Bruno Moonen - Deputy Director, Malaria program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Alexandra Farnum — Program Officer, Global Program Advocacy, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Meg Halverson — Consultant, Global Program Advocacy, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Adrienne DiCasparro — Associate Program Officer, Giving Partnerships, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Cari Tuna — Co-Founder, Good Ventures • Holden Karnofsky — Co-Founder, GiveWell Note: This set of conversation notes was compiled by GiveWell and gives an overview of the major points made by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation malaria team. Summary GiveWell and Good Ventures spoke with members of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) malaria team about gaps in global malaria funding, BMGF’s strategy and projected timeline for malaria eradication, and other BMGF malaria activities. Gaps in global malaria funding GiveWell and Good Ventures asked the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) malaria team whether there is a need for funding of better data on bed net durability and bed net usage. There is not as much knowledge and data about bed net usage and bed net durability as there should be. A potential source of variability in bed net durability is that, currently, there are no globally established criteria for measuring the durability of bed nets, so it is possible that net durability standards differ between producers. The Results for Development Institute (R4D) is doing very good work on studying bed net durability. -
Effective Altruism William Macaskill and Theron Pummer
1 Effective Altruism William MacAskill and Theron Pummer Climate change is on course to cause millions of deaths and cost the world economy trillions of dollars. Nearly a billion people live in extreme poverty, millions of them dying each year of easily preventable diseases. Just a small fraction of the thousands of nuclear weapons on hair‐trigger alert could easily bring about global catastrophe. New technologies like synthetic biology and artificial intelligence bring unprece dented risks. Meanwhile, year after year billions and billions of factory‐farmed ani mals live and die in misery. Given the number of severe problems facing the world today, and the resources required to solve them, we may feel at a loss as to where to even begin. The good news is that we can improve things with the right use of money, time, talent, and effort. These resources can bring about a great deal of improvement, or very little, depending on how they are allocated. The effective altruism movement consists of a growing global community of peo ple who use reason and evidence to assess how to do as much good as possible, and who take action on this basis. Launched in 2011, the movement now has thousands of members, as well as influence over billions of dollars. The movement has substan tially increased awareness of the fact that some altruistic activities are much more cost‐effective than others, in the sense that they do much more good than others per unit of resource expended. According to the nonprofit organization GiveWell, it costs around $3,500 to prevent someone from dying of malaria by distributing bed nets. -
Non-Paywalled
Wringing the Most Good Out of a FACEBOOK FORTUNE SAN FRANCISCO itting behind a laptop affixed with a decal of a child reaching for an GIVING apple, an illustration from Shel Silverstein’s The Giving Tree, Cari Tuna quips about endowing a Tuna Room in the Bass Library at Yale Univer- sity, her alma mater. But it’s unlikely any of the fortune that she and her husband, Face- By MEGAN O’NEIL Sbook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, command — estimated by Forbes at more than $9 billion — will ever be used to name a building. Five years after they signed the Giving Pledge, the youngest on the list of billionaires promising to donate half of their wealth, the couple is embarking on what will start at double-digit millions of dollars in giving to an eclectic range of causes, from overhauling the criminal-justice system to minimizing the potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence. To figure out where to give, they created the Open Philanthropy Project, which uses academic research, among other things, to identify high-poten- tial, overlooked funding opportunities. Ms. Tuna, a former Wall Street Journal reporter, hopes the approach will influence other wealthy donors in Silicon The youngest Valley and beyond who, like her, seek the biggest possible returns for their philanthropic dollars. Already, a co-founder of Instagram and his spouse have made a $750,000 signers of the commitment to support the project. What’s more, Ms. Tuna and those working alongside her at the Open Philanthropy Project are documenting every step online — sometimes in Giving Pledge are eyebrow-raising detail — for the world to follow along. -
Should the Randomistas (Continue To) Rule?
Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule? Martin Ravallion Abstract The rising popularity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in development applications has come with continuing debates on the pros and cons of this approach. The paper revisits the issues. While RCTs have a place in the toolkit for impact evaluation, an unconditional preference for RCTs as the “gold standard” is questionable. The statistical case is unclear on a priori grounds; a stronger ethical defense is often called for; and there is a risk of distorting the evidence-base for informing policymaking. Going forward, pressing knowledge gaps should drive the questions asked and how they are answered, not the methodological preferences of some researchers. The gold standard is the best method for the question at hand. Keywords: Randomized controlled trials, bias, ethics, external validity, ethics, development policy JEL: B23, H43, O22 Working Paper 492 August 2018 www.cgdev.org Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule? Martin Ravallion Department of Economics, Georgetown University François Roubaud encouraged the author to write this paper. For comments the author is grateful to Sarah Baird, Mary Ann Bronson, Caitlin Brown, Kevin Donovan, Markus Goldstein, Miguel Hernan, Emmanuel Jimenez, Madhulika Khanna, Nishtha Kochhar, Andrew Leigh, David McKenzie, Berk Özler, Dina Pomeranz, Lant Pritchett, Milan Thomas, Vinod Thomas, Eva Vivalt, Dominique van de Walle and Andrew Zeitlin. Staff of the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation kindly provided an update to their database on published impact evaluations and helped with the author’s questions. Martin Ravallion, 2018. “Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule?.” CGD Working Paper 492. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. -
The Definition of Effective Altruism
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 19/08/19, SPi 1 The Definition of Effective Altruism William MacAskill There are many problems in the world today. Over 750 million people live on less than $1.90 per day (at purchasing power parity).1 Around 6 million children die each year of easily preventable causes such as malaria, diarrhea, or pneumonia.2 Climate change is set to wreak environmental havoc and cost the economy tril- lions of dollars.3 A third of women worldwide have suffered from sexual or other physical violence in their lives.4 More than 3,000 nuclear warheads are in high-alert ready-to-launch status around the globe.5 Bacteria are becoming antibiotic- resistant.6 Partisanship is increasing, and democracy may be in decline.7 Given that the world has so many problems, and that these problems are so severe, surely we have a responsibility to do something about them. But what? There are countless problems that we could be addressing, and many different ways of addressing each of those problems. Moreover, our resources are scarce, so as individuals and even as a globe we can’t solve all these problems at once. So we must make decisions about how to allocate the resources we have. But on what basis should we make such decisions? The effective altruism movement has pioneered one approach. Those in this movement try to figure out, of all the different uses of our resources, which uses will do the most good, impartially considered. This movement is gathering con- siderable steam. There are now thousands of people around the world who have chosen -
Population Axiology
Population axiology Hilary Greaves This is the pre-peer reviewed version of this article. The final version is forthcoming in Philosophy Compass; please cite the published version. This ar- ticle may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving. Abstract Population axiology is the study of the conditions under which one state of affairs is better than another, when the states of affairs in ques- tion may differ over the numbers and the identities of the persons who ever live. Extant theories include totalism, averagism, variable value theories, critical level theories, and \person-affecting” theories. Each of these the- ories is open to objections that are at least prima facie serious. A series of impossibility theorems shows that this is no coincidence: it can be proved, for various sets of prima facie intuitively compelling desiderata, that no axiology can simultaneously satisfy all the desiderata on the list. One's choice of population axiology appears to be a choice of which intuition one is least unwilling to give up. 1 Population ethics and population axiology: The basic questions In many decision situations, at least in expectation, an agent's decision has no effect on the numbers and identities of persons born. For those situations, fixed-population ethics is adequate. But in many other decision situations, this condition does not hold. Should one have an additional child? How should life-saving resources be prioritised between the young (who might go on to have children) and the old (who are past reproductive age)? How much should one do to prevent climate change from reducing the number of persons the Earth is able to sustain in the future? Should one fund condom distribution in the developing world? In all these cases, one's actions can affect both who is born and how many people are (ever) born. -
CJR Job Description.Doc.Docx
PLEASE NOTE: THIS POSITION HAS BEEN FILLED We're keeping this PDF online so that links we've previously posted to it do not break, but we are no longer accepting applications for the role described below. Program Officer, Criminal Justice Reform The Open Philanthropy Project is looking for a founding Program Officer to lead our criminal justice reform work. We hope to contribute to a future in which the U.S. massively reduces incarceration while maintaining or improving public safety. We’re open to doing so by supporting strong advocacy and research institutions for the long run, capitalizing on political windows of opportunity, or pursuing other high-risk high-reward approaches, such as exploring how to change prosecutors’ incentives. The Program Officer will be responsible for developing our strategy and making grants, starting in the range of $5 million per year, with significant room to grow. About the Open Philanthropy Project The Open Philanthropy Project is a collaboration between Good Ventures and GiveWell in which we identify outstanding giving opportunities, make grants, follow the results, and publish our findings. Good Ventures is a philanthropic foundation whose mission is to help humanity thrive. Good Ventures was created by Dustin Moskovitz (co-founder of Facebook and Asana) and Cari Tuna, who have pledged to give the majority of their wealth to charity. GiveWell is a nonprofit that finds outstanding giving opportunities and publishes the full details of its analysis to help donors decide where to give. Criminal Justice Reform Program The United States incarcerates a larger proportion of its residents than almost any other country in the world and still has the highest level of criminal homicide in the developed world. -
Sharing the World with Digital Minds1
Sharing the World with Digital Minds1 (2020). Draft. Version 1.8 Carl Shulman† & Nick Bostrom† [in Clarke, S. & Savulescu, J. (eds.): Rethinking Moral Status (Oxford University Press, forthcoming)] Abstract The minds of biological creatures occupy a small corner of a much larger space of possible minds that could be created once we master the technology of artificial intelligence. Yet many of our moral intuitions and practices are based on assumptions about human nature that need not hold for digital minds. This points to the need for moral reflection as we approach the era of advanced machine intelligence. Here we focus on one set of issues, which arise from the prospect of digital minds with superhumanly strong claims to resources and influence. These could arise from the vast collective benefits that mass-produced digital minds could derive from relatively small amounts of resources. Alternatively, they could arise from individual digital minds with superhuman moral status or ability to benefit from resources. Such beings could contribute immense value to the world, and failing to respect their interests could produce a moral catastrophe, while a naive way of respecting them could be disastrous for humanity. A sensible approach requires reforms of our moral norms and institutions along with advance planning regarding what kinds of digital minds we bring into existence. 1. Introduction Human biological nature imposes many practical limits on what can be done to promote somebody’s welfare. We can only live so long, feel so much joy, have so many children, and benefit so much from additional support and resources. Meanwhile, we require, in order to flourish, that a complex set of physical, psychological, and social conditions be met. -
Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Impact Evaluation†
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 2015, 105(5): 467–470 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151015 Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Impact Evaluation† By Eva Vivalt* The past few years have seen an exponential which programs work best where. To date, it growth in impact evaluations. These evalua- has conducted 20 meta-analyses and systematic tions are supposed to be useful to policymakers, reviews of different development programs.1 development practitioners, and researchers Data gathered through meta-analyses are the designing future studies. However, it is not yet ideal data with which to answer the question of clear to what extent we can extrapolate from how much we can extrapolate from past results, past impact evaluation results or under which as what one would want is a large database of conditions Deaton 2010; Pritchett and Sandefur impact evaluation results. Since data on these 20 2013 . Further,( it has been shown that even a topics were collected in the same way, we can similar) program, in a similar environment, can also look across different types of programs to yield different results Duflo et al. 2012; Bold see if there are any more general trends. et al. 2013 . The different( findings that have The rest of this paper proceeds as follows. been obtained) in such similar conditions point First, I briefly discuss the framework of hetero- to substantial context-dependence of impact geneous treatment effects. I then describe the evaluation results. It is critical to understand this data in more detail and provide some illustrative context-dependence in order to know what we results. -
A R E S E a R C H Agenda
Cooperation, Conflict, and Transformative Artificial Intelligence — A RESEARCH AGENDA Jesse Clifton — LONGTERMRISK.ORG March 2020 First draft: December 2019 Contents 1 Introduction 2 1.1 Cooperation failure: models and examples . .3 1.2 Outline of the agenda . .5 2 AI strategy and governance 8 2.1 Polarity and transition scenarios . .8 2.2 Commitment and transparency . .8 2.3 AI misalignment scenarios . 10 2.4 Other directions . 10 2.5 Potential downsides of research on cooperation failures . 11 3 Credibility 12 3.1 Commitment capabilities . 13 3.2 Open-source game theory . 13 4 Peaceful bargaining mechanisms 16 4.1 Rational crisis bargaining . 16 4.2 Surrogate goals . 18 5 Contemporary AI architectures 21 5.1 Learning to solve social dilemmas . 21 5.2 Multi-agent training . 24 5.3 Decision theory . 25 6 Humans in the loop 27 6.1 Behavioral game theory . 27 6.2 AI delegates . 28 7 Foundations of rational agency 30 7.1 Bounded decision theory . 30 7.2 Acausal reasoning . 31 8 Acknowledgements 35 1 1 Introduction Transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) may be a key factor in the long-run trajec- tory of civilization. A growing interdisciplinary community has begun to study how the development of TAI can be made safe and beneficial to sentient life (Bostrom, 2014; Russell et al., 2015; OpenAI, 2018; Ortega and Maini, 2018; Dafoe, 2018). We present a research agenda for advancing a critical component of this effort: preventing catastrophic failures of cooperation among TAI systems. By cooperation failures we refer to a broad class of potentially-catastrophic inefficiencies in interactions among TAI-enabled actors. -
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What you get for your dollar January 2019 “Effective Altruism” — What it is, how philanthropic foundations use it and what are its risks and side-effects by Karolin Seitz In parallel to the debate on ‘Aid Effectiveness’ among Ensuring that charitable giving is used for the maximum donor and recipient countries, a new approach, labeled good, is a worthy goal. However, from a human rights “Effective Altruism” (EA) has gained traction in the de- perspective, several concerns arise concerning the un- bate on the impact of development aid. Unlike Aid Ef- derlying assumptions, the methodology and the conse- fectiveness, which involves donor and recipient govern- quences of the practical application of EA. ments, the new approach involves philanthropic institu- tions and their chosen (non-)governmental recipients and This briefing paper provides an overview of the approach explores ways in which funding can be used most effi- underlying EA, how and by whom it is applied and its ciently to have the greatest impact. Its proponents, in- problems and consequences. It concludes that policy cluding new philanthropic entities and so-called ‘venture makers, rather than be guided by its assumptions and philanthropies’ such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Founda- conclusions, must instead concentrate on understand- tion, claim that their funding decisions are based on evi- ing the confounding structural causes of interdependent dence-based results. However, such decisions are primar- global challenges and aim at their long-term solution, ily grounded in cost-benefit considerations, neglecting within an overarching human rights framework. social and cultural considerations and looking at prob- lems in isolation from the wider context. -
Beneficial AI 2017
Beneficial AI 2017 Participants & Attendees 1 Anthony Aguirre is a Professor of Physics at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He has worked on a wide variety of topics in theoretical cosmology and fundamental physics, including inflation, black holes, quantum theory, and information theory. He also has strong interest in science outreach, and has appeared in numerous science documentaries. He is a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, the Foundational Questions Institute, and Metaculus (http://www.metaculus.com/). Sam Altman is president of Y Combinator and was the cofounder of Loopt, a location-based social networking app. He also co-founded OpenAI with Elon Musk. Sam has invested in over 1,000 companies. Dario Amodei is the co-author of the recent paper Concrete Problems in AI Safety, which outlines a pragmatic and empirical approach to making AI systems safe. Dario is currently a research scientist at OpenAI, and prior to that worked at Google and Baidu. Dario also helped to lead the project that developed Deep Speech 2, which was named one of 10 “Breakthrough Technologies of 2016” by MIT Technology Review. Dario holds a PhD in physics from Princeton University, where he was awarded the Hertz Foundation doctoral thesis prize. Amara Angelica is Research Director for Ray Kurzweil, responsible for books, charts, and special projects. Amara’s background is in aerospace engineering, in electronic warfare, electronic intelligence, human factors, and computer systems analysis areas. A co-founder and initial Academic Model/Curriculum Lead for Singularity University, she was formerly on the board of directors of the National Space Society, is a member of the Space Development Steering Committee, and is a professional member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).