WPGA Conference 2017
The Pecan Industry in Chihuahua, Mexico: Challenges and Successes
Dr. Julio López-Díaz Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua [email protected] Dr. Esteban Herrera NMSU Professor Emeritus Acknowledgements
• M.S. Víctor Esparza
NMSU alumnus & President of the Mexican Pecan System-
Product Committee (COMENUEZ)
2 Today’s Talk
• Pecan Industry´s Overview: o National and Chihuahua State Levels
• Topics: o Production o International trade o Acreage o Market and marketing o Tendencies o Challenges and Successes
3 Main Pecan-Producing States in Mexico
Sonora Chihuahua
Coahuila
NL Durango
Source: SIAP-SAGARPA
4 Mexican Pecan Growers: How are they organized?
National Level
State Level
Local Level Regional Associations
5 Mexico’s Pecan Production (MT)
140,000 125,758 122,714 MT
120,000
100,000
80,000 1,000 lbs
60,000 2014 – 277,246
40,000 2015 – 270,535
20,000
0 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
6 Production by State
Production 2015 State (MT) 3% 4% Chihuahua 6% Chihuahua 79,934 Sonora 10% Sonora 15,028 Coahuila Durango Coahuila 12,509 12% Nuevo León 65% Durango 7,143 Others Nuevo León 3,354 Others 4,746 122,714
Source: SIAP-SAGARPA
7 Pecan Hectares in Mexico
2000 - 2015 120,000 112,622 108,012 104,371 Year 2015 98,071 100,000 92,218 112,622 Has 88,055 84,509 77,58280,048 80,000 74,212 68,383 63,69665,685
60,000 50,47851,82351,622
40,000
20,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA
Sup. Sembrada (Has) 8 MX´s Production and Hectares
2000 - 2015 140,000
120,000 Year 2015
100,000 122,714 MT 80,000
60,000 112,622 Has
40,000
20,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA
Sup. Sembrada (Has) Producción (Ton) 9 New Plantings in Mexico
7,000 6,300 5,829 6,000 5,853
4,611 5,000 4,461 Avg. Increase per Year 4,000 4,163 3,370 4,267 Has
3,000 3,546 3,641 2,698 Hectares Estimated to be 2,000 2,466 5,000 – 7,000 Has
1,000
0 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10 International Trade Mexico-USA
120,000
102,118
100,000 91,231 95,384 MT = 78% of Total Production 87,662 79,750 80,000 70,474 67,456
Tons IMPORTACIONES 60,000 Imports EXPORTACIONES Exports
Metric 40,000 24,506 23,983 26,187 29,087 MT 21,696 22,045 20,870 20,000
- 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAVI
11 Exports from Mexico to USA
120,000 Total 2015
100,000 95, 384 MT
80,000
Tons 78% of Mexico’s Shelled 60,000 Production
40,000 Metric
20,000 In-Shell
- 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SIN CASCARA 46,646 71,777 42,868 45,147 56,213 69,567 60,480 CON CASCARA 41,016 19,454 24,587 25,327 23,537 32,551 34,904 Source: SIAVI and COMENUEZ
12 Mexican Exports to China
6,932 7,000
6,000 5,579 MT
5,000 4,092 = 4.54 % of Total Production
4,000 3,316 3,337 3,141 3,000 Metric Tons 2,000 1,391
620 1,000 326 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
13 Mexico and China
► Sonora State: currently the biggest exporter to China (in-shell nuts).
► Smaller trade operations from other Mexican states. Chihuahua could be in the future a major player in exporting to China. 2016 China in Mexico: • 28 Buyers representing 14 Companies • Import Tax lowered: 25 to 10%
http://www.sagarpa.gob.mx/Delegaciones/distritofederal/boletines/Paginas/JAC0236-29.aspx
14 Pecan Apparent Consumption in Mexico
70,000 Apparent Consumption 60,000 Production plus Imports 50,000 minus Exports 40,000 Tons 64,637 30,000 56,417 49,775 45,773 49,480 20,000 Avg. Apparent Consumption 10,000 53, 216 MT
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAVI
15 Per Capita Consumption in Mexico (2014)
gr
Year 2014
26,132 MT
Pecan Almonds Macadamia Pine nut Pistachio Hazelnuts Chestnuts
Source: COMENUEZ
16 Pecan Industry in Chihuahua
17 Pecan Production in Chihuahua
79,934 MT 80,000 CHIHUAHUA 66,302 70,000 COAHUILA 60,000 SONORA 50,000 Tons 40,000
30,000 Metric 20,000
10,000
- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA
18 Pecan-producing Regions Year 2014
18,000 16,025 16,000
14,000
12,000 10,453
Tons 10,000
8,000
Metric 6,000 4,603 4,338 4,188 3,898 3,718 3,341 4,000 3,117 2,828 2,865 2,397 2,189 2,000
-
Source: COMENUEZ
19 Pecan Production Forecasting
Tons § Chihuahua could reach a production as high as 150,000 MT by 2025. Metric
Source: COMENUEZ
20 Chih’s Pecan Hectares
70,000 64,049 66,302 Yr 2015 60,250 68, 823 Has 60,000 55,119 53,029 51,389 48,535 47,103 AVG. Increase per Year 50,000 44,656 42,685 40,590 2,532 Has 38,445 40,000 CHIHUAHUA estimated COAHUILA 30,000 3,000 – 5,000 Has SONORA
20,000 For 2016 16,242 estimated 11,586 10,000 70% production 30% development - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA
21 Price-per-Point in Chihuahua (2001 – 2016)
Price-per-Point
6.00 • Source: COMENUEZ and Pecan Growers 5.19 4.95 5.03 • Estimated Average Price 5.00 4.08 • Price Fluctuation 2016 - 2017: 3.80 4.00 3.59 4.20 – 5.65 USD 3.38 3.35 3.15 3.10 3.04 2.84 3.00 2.75 • Feb 17th‘s Price : $ 4.20, Pecans 54% Meat 2.20 Dollars 2.05 2.00 1.43
1.00
0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year
22 Price per Kg in Chihuahua (2001 – 2016)
Price (Pesos / Kg)
140.00 123.14
120.00
100.00 84.82 82.00 80.00 70.20 60.59 60.00 54.92 48.47 50.36 44.04 44.45 46.15 38.9140.00 40.00 30.01 25.30 17.15 20.00
0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
23 Exchange Rate (2001 – 2016)
Exchange Rate (Pesos/ USD) 25
20.05 20 16.54
15 13.94 13.55 13.95 12.96 13.09 12.94 12.33 11.15 11.28 10.85 10.83 10.18 10.51 9.57 10
5
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
24 Challenges and Successes
25 Success 1 ► Mexican Pecan growers have developed good pecan management knowledge and skills through short courses, conferences, talks, publications, etc.
26 Success 2
► Good growers’ organizations.
27 Success 3 ► Plenty of orchard management information available: magazines, Facebook, webpages, etc.
28 Challenge 1
► Improving Pecan Growers-Government team work.
29 Challenge 2
► Need of accurate, reliable data of pecan industry.
30 Challenge 3 ► New Markets: Asia and Europe.
31 Challenge 3 ► Participating in Food & Trade Fairs.
32 Challenge 4 ► Consolidation of domestic market.
Current pecan prices represent the main factor to increasing consumption.
33 U.S. International Trade in goods and services
MEXICO “In 2015, U.S. exports of goods and services to Mexico were $267.3 billion, down 1.4% from 2014, and imports from Mexico were $325.3 billion, up 0.7% from 2014. As a result, the trade deficit with Mexico increased to $57.9 billion.” “In 2015, exports to Mexico accounted for 11.8% of total U.S. exports, and imports from Mexico accounted for 11.8% of total U.S. imports. Exports were led by capital goods (excluding automotive), which accounted for 31.2% of U.S. exports to Mexico, and imports were led by automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, which accounted for 32.7% of U.S. imports from Mexico.” “Who owns the automotive companies?”
34 U.S. International Trade in goods and services
MEXICO
“Consumer Products and Autos Drive the U.S. Trade Deficit”
https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?Area=213 35 U.S. International Trade in goods and services Direct Investment of Multinational Enterprises in Mexico
https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?Area=213 36 U.S. International Trade in goods and services Activities of Multinational Enterprises in Mexico
Mexican minimum wage 2017: $ 80 pesos per day or $ 4 dollars
https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?Area=213 37 U.S. Trade in goods with… (Millions of U.S. dollars)
Exports Imports Balance China Deficit: Year China 115,775.1 462,813.0 - 347,037.9 Japan 63,264.3 132,201.8 - 68,937.6 5.49 more times than 2016 Mexico 230,959.1 294,151.0 - 63,191.9 Mexico
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html Source:
38 Challenge 5 ► USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA?
39 Challenge 5 ► USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA?
40 Challenge 5 ► USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA?
41 WPGA Conference 2017 The Pecan Industry in Chihuahua, Mexico: Challenges and Successes…And maybe fears?
Thank you! Dr. Julio López-Díaz Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua [email protected] Dr. Esteban Herrera NMSU Professor Emeritus