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Survey of Current Business August 1921

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Survey of Current Business August 1921 MONTHLY SUPPLEMENT TO COMMERCE REPORTS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS No. 1 AUGUST 1, 1921 CpMPILED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE BUREAU OF STANDARDS For sale by the SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS, Washington, D. C, at $1.00 a year; single copies, 10 cents Foreign subscriptions, $1.50; single copies, including postage, 20 cents. Remittances should be made only to the Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C, by postal money order, express order, or New York draft. Cur- rency may be sent at sender's risk. Postage stamps or foreign money will not be accepted Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis INTRODUCTION. This summary of statistical information as to the trend of business and industry was placed in type, and for the month of July 1,500 copies were printed. It was distributed to trade and commercial journals, to important business houses, trade associations, public bodies, and economists, requesting opinion as to the usefulness of the data, and asking for constructive criticism. An extraordinary number of replies have been received, insistent upon the importance of the preparation and dis- tribution of the information and offering many useful suggestions. Many changes have been made in accordance with these suggestions in this issue; but the publication is still in experimental form, and the Department is anxious to receive still further criticism with a view to rendering the publication fully serviceable to the commercial public. It will be noted that the order of the figures here presented has been entirely altered, that a brief summary of the index numbers has been introduced, that graphs have been prepared, and further statistical information is given as tends to indicate the current trend of business. In order that the publication shall impose no cost upon the taxpayers, it is proposed that a charge of $1 per annum shall be made for the Survey. After September 1 it will also be included with the reorganized "Commerce Reports" at a total subscription price for the two services of $4 per annum. The Introduction given last month is repeated for the information of those who receive the publication for the first time. INTRODUCTION TO JULY NUMBER. To visualize the current trends of business and industry use preliminary figures or advance estimates in order to monthly, the Department of Commerce has found it avoid too great delay in publication after the end of necessary to condense and compile a large volume of each month. information. These facts have been of service to the Department in its attempt to grasp the changing business How RELATIVE FIGURES ARE COMPUTED. conditions. It is believed they may be useful to the business public and that the figures, in some measure, In computing the relative figures, the attempt has will assist in the enlargement of business judgment. been made to use the average of the last prewar year, To concentrate such a mass of information in con- 1913, as a base equal to 100. In many instances, the venient form and to make it useful for study and com- basic statistics do not go back to the prewar years and, parison, the data have been coded into relative figures, in such cases, averages for the year 1919 have been or index numbers, where necessary. These index num- taken as a base. In a few cases still other base years bers enable the reader to see at a glance the general have been used for special reasons. These facts, to- upward or downward tendency of a movement, which gether with the source of the basic data, are indicated can not so easily be grasped from actual figures. in the several tables. Certain commodity movements, such as the production of cottonseed oil, cold-storage STATISTICS COMPILED FROM VARIOUS SOURCES. holdings, etc., are very seasonal in character. In calculating the index numbers no allowance has been The basic figures used in the accompanying tables are made for this, since it was thought better to let this largely those already in existence and are collected from fact show in the relative figures themselves. Government departments, trade associations, etc. In For those unfamiliar with the use of such relative cases where the basic data have been collected by outside figures a word of explanation is necessary. Take the figures agencies the Department of Commerce assumes no respon- in the first column of Tables 38 and 78 which deal with sibility for their accuracy or completeness. The figures the bank clearings in New York City as reported monthly used, however, are in some cases those generally accepted by Bradstreet. In 1913 the average monthly clearing in business circles as sufficiently complete to represent the amounted to $7,886,000,000. This number is allowed current trend of the given industrial movement, and in to equal 100 on our relative scale. In January, 1920, other instances are vouched for by the trade association. the total bank clearings were $23,210,000,000, or equiva- To be of the greatest value such information must be lent to a relative number of 294, when the 1913 average widely diffused and digested by the business men of the is taken as 100. In June, 1921, bank clearings in New country. It is not enough that the banks and the big York City were only $16,849,000,000, or on the relative business concerns should understand the trends in busi- basis only 214. The difference between 100 and any rela- ness; the small manufacturer and the small dealer must tive number gives at once the per cent increase or decrease have some understanding, too, so that there may be some above or below the base year. Thus bank clearings in semblance of unity in action. The Department hopes to January, 1920, were 194 per cent above the 1913 average, reach this audience by offering to them these data. and in June, 1921, they were 114 per cent above the In preparing these figures every effort is made to same base. In the number of business failures, as re- secure accuracy and completeness. On the other hand, ported in column 3 of Table 38, the relative number for it is realized that timeliness is often of more value than January, 1920, is 43, indicating a decrease for that month extreme accuracy. In certain cases it is necessary to of 57 per cent below the 1913 monthly average. (2) Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SUMMARY. The following summary compares the index number for the last month available, usually July, 1921, with the number for the preced ing month and that for the corresponding month a year ago. Unless otherwise stated the months compared are July, 1921, with June 1921, and July, 1920. When other months are used, the fact is indicated by the following footnotes: (*) The figures given compare August, 1921, with July, 1921, and August, 1920. (2) Comparison is for June, 1921, with the preceding month and the corresponding period last year. (3) The latest data available are for May, 1921. The comparison is between this month, April, 1921, and May, 1920. (4) Data collected quarterly the figures compare the June, 1921, quarter with March, 1921, and June, 1920. (6) Figures represent percentage of active to total machines reported for August, 1921, July, 1921, and August, 1920. The figures in the last two columns show increase or decrease in these percentages. (6) Data on knit goods represent percentage of normal production for June, 1921, May, 1921, and July, 1920, respectively. The last two columns show increase or decrease in these percentages. PER CENT OF PER CENT OF INDEX NUMBERS. CHANGE COM- INDEX NUMBERS. CHANGE COM- PARED WITH— PARED WITH— Table Base Table Base num- year. num- year. bers. Previ- bers. Previ- July, June. July, ous Year July, June, July, Year 1921 1921 1920 ous month. ago. 1921 1921 1920 month. ago. TEXTILES. METALS AND METAL PRODUCTS—Contd. Wool. Zinc. Consumption 1,40 1913 132 145 92 -9.0 +43.5 Quarterly stocks: Production. 13,51 1913 2 67 2 142 +8.1 -52.8 Commercial 1,40 1919 <106 -6.6 +15.1 Stocks 13,51 1913 2 221 2 211 266 +4.7 +234. 8 Government 1,40 1919 <27 <34 <40 -20.6 -32.5 Imports 12,50 1913 0 54 -100.0 -100.0 Imports, unmanufactured 1,40 1913 74 47 75 +57.4 -1.3 Spindles: Tin. Active woolen 3,42 5 79 5 54 5-1.0 6 +25.0 Stocks... 13,51 1913 136 -1.4 +30.8 Active worsted 3,42 5 87 590 6 62 5-3.0 6 +25. 0 Looms: Imports. 12,50 1913 37 -14.0 -79.9 3,42 6 81 5-1.0 5 +29.0 Active wide FUEL AND POWER. Active narrow 3,42 6 75 5 70 5-1.0 5+4.0 3,42 650 6+1.0 5-18.0 Active carpet 6 68 Coal and coke production. Cotton. Bituminous coal.. 14,52 1913 85 114 -10.6 -33. 3 Production 16,54 1913 158 -3.3 -34.1 Anthracite coal 14,52 1913 108 108 -14.8 -14.8 1913 85 96 -11.5 -22.0 Beehive coke 14,52 1913 8 60 -25.0 -90.0 Consumption 1,40 1913 Stocks, mills — 1,40 1913 83 90 -7.8 -17.8 By-product coke.. 14,52 121 133 -9.0 Stocks, warehouse 1,40 1913 212 245 -13.5 +81.2 Imports, unmanufactured 1,40 1913 17 48 -64.6 -88.1 Anthracite coal.
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