The World Bank

Document of The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY C ? /5/- d2 Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 5428-BD Public Disclosure Authorized STAFF APPRAISAL REFORT

BANGLADESH

THIRD FLOOD CONTROLAND DRAINAGEPROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized

April 16, 1985 Public Disclosure Authorized

South Asia Projects Department Irrigation I Diyision

This document has a restricted distributionand mav be used by recipients only in the perforrnanceof |their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Currency Equivalents

US$1 Taka 26.0 Taka 1 = US$0.038

Weights and Measures

Metric system

Abbreviations Used

BADC - Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation BRDB - Bangladesh Rural Development Board BWDB - Bangladesh Water Development Board b. - When preceeding a crop means broadcast DAE - Department of Agricultural Extension ECNEC - Executive Committee of the National Economic Council FA - Force Account FCD III - Third Flood Control and Drainage Project COB - Government of Bangladesh ICB - International Competitive Bidding IDA - International Development Association IPC - Imports Program Credit LCB - Local Competitive Bidding MOA - Ministry of Agriculture and Forests *-IOI - Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control O&M - Operation and Maintenance PEC - Project Evaluation Committee PSA - Project Special Account PP - Project Proforma t. - When preceeding a crop means transplanted FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY

GLOSSARY

Aman - Rice planted before or during the monsoon and harvested in November or December

Aus - Rice planted during February or March and harvested during June or July

Beel - Low-lying area subject to flooding by rain or river water

Boro - Rice transplanted in December to January and harvested in April to May

District - Administrative unit in the charge of a Deputy Commissioner comprising a number of Upazilas

Khal - Natural channel

Kharif - Summer season (May through October)

Monsoon - Period of rains starting in June and ending in October

Rabi - Winter season (October through May)

Upazila - Smallest administrative unit of the Local Government

FISCAL YEAR (FY)

July 1 - June 30

This document hasa restricted distnbution and may be used by redpients only in the performance ofi their ofrc duties. Its contents may not otherwise be dissbsd without World Bank authorization. BANGLADESH

THIRD FLOOD CONTROL AND DRAINAGE PROJECT

Table of Contents

Page No. I. BACKGROUND

Rationale for IDA Involvement 1 Project Background 2 Agricultural Sector Background 2 IDA's Role and Lending Strategy 4 Lessons from the Past 5

II. The Project

Project Concept 6 Project Objective *6 Project Description 7 Project Works 13 Implementation Schedule 15

III. Project Costs, Financing, Procurement, Disbursement and Accounts

Project Costs 16 Project Financing 17 Procurement 18 Disbursement 21 Accounts and Audits 21 Special Account 22

IV. Project Management 22

V. Production, Marketing and Prices, Farm Income and Cost Recovery

Production 25 Marketing and Prices 26 Farm Income 27 Cost Recovery 28

VI. Benefits and Justification

Production and Employment 29 Economic Analysis 29 Sensitivity Analysis 31 Project Risks 31 Environmental Impact 32

VII. Agreements and Recommendations 33 -2-

Annexes

Annex 1 - Criteria for Selection of Sub-Projects Annex 2 - Guidelines for Studies and Investigations Gumti Phase I: Hydrological and Morphological Study Madhumati/Nabaganga: Hydrological Study Groundwater Study Naogaon Polder I: Hydro-MorphologicalStudy Role of BWDB and Consultants in Hydro-Morphological Studies RoLe of BWDB and Consultants in Groundwater Study Aerial Photography Agricultural and Fisheries DeveLopment Programs Feasibility Study for Gumti Phase II Project On-Farm Demonstration Units Study of BWDB's Institutional Capability Annex 3 - Technical Assistance and Training Annex 4 - Implementation Schedules Annex 5 - Land Acquisition Procedures Annex 6 - Proposed Credit Allocation and Disbursement Schedule Annex 7 - Crop Acreage, Yield and Product,on Annex 8 - Economic Parameters and Analysis Inflation and Exchange Rates Economic Price of Paddy Economic Price of Wheat Economic Price of Jute Economic Price of Oilseeds Economic Price of Urea Economic Price of MP Economic Price of TSP Economic Benefits and Costs - Gumti Sub-project Economic Benefits and Costs - Naogaon Sub-project Economic Benefits and Costs - Madhumati-Nabaganga Sub-project Farm Budget - Gumti Sub-project Farm Budget - Naogaon Sub-project Farm Budget - Madhumati-Nabaganga Sub-project Annex 9 - Detailed Cost Tables Cumti Phase I Sub-project - Tables 1,2 and 3 Naogaon Sub-project - Tabls 4,5 and 6 Madhumati-Nabaganga Sub-project - Tables 7,8 and 9 Summary Account by Year Project Components by Year Breakdown of Summary Accounts US$ Breakdown of Summary Accounts Tk Summary Account by Project Component Annex 10 - Polder Concept and Agricultural Development Annex 11 - Related Documents in Project File -3-

Charts

Chart 1 - Organization of the BWDB Chart 2 - Project Headquarters and Field Organizations

Maps

Map 1 - IBRD 18549 - Sub-projects Location Map Map 2 - [BRD 18558R - Gumti Phase I Sub-project Map 3 - IBRD 18559 - Naogaon Sub-project Map 4 - IBRD 18560 - Madhumati - Nabaganga Sub-Project BANGLADESH

THIRD FLOOD CONTROL AND DRAINAGE PROJECT

Credit and Project Summary

Borrower : The Covernment of the People's Republic of Bangladesh

Amount : SDR 50.1 (US$48.0 M equivalent)

Terms : Standard

Project Description: The main objectives of the project are: (a) to protect against crop losses, loss of life and property damage due to floods; (b) to improve the physical environment to allow farmers to adopt improved agricultural practices; and (c) to strengthen the Bangladesh Water Develop- ment Board (BWDB). The project would consist of three sub-projects (Gumti Phase I, Naogaon Polder I and Madhumati-Nabaganga), covering an area of 104,500 ha under flood control and drainage (FCD) and 14,350 ha under irrigation. About 115,000 farm famiLies or about 670,000 people would benefit. The project would include: i) the construction and rehabilitation of embankments, water control structures, drainage channels and irrigation facilities and the upgrading of roads; (ii) support to BWDB to improve the planning, design, and monitoring of FCD projects, and to improve land acquisition and operation and maintenance procedures; and (iii) the preparation of programs for further development of agriculture and fisheries within the project area.

Risks : One possible risk facing the project is implementation delays in processing of land acquisition and preparation of engineering designs. Special arrangements have been incorporated into the project design to minimize this risk. A further possible risk would be the potential decrease in production from natural fisheries within the project area. The project would provide for appropriate design of engineering works to minimize this impact, and for preparation of a follow-up development programme aimed at increasing crop, livestock and fish production in the projct areas. -2-

Project Estimated Costs: 1/ LocaL Foreign Cost Exchange Total (US$ MiLlion Equivalent)

Land Acquisition 7.2 - 7.2 Civil Works 18.6 5.7 24.3 Equipment 1.1 1.3 2.4 Surveys & Investigations 0.9 2.9 3.8 Studies, Benchmark Surveys & PCR 0.5 0.9 1.4 Engineering & Administration 3.6 - 3.6 Technical Assistance & Training 0.6 2.5 3.1 Operation & Maintenance 2.0 0.3 2.3 Total Base Costs 34.5 13.6 48.1

Physical Contingencies 1.8 0.7 2.5 Price Contingencies 10.4 4.0 14.4 Total Costs 46.1 18.3 65.0

11 Including US$2.3 million in duties and taxes.

Financing Plan: Local Foreign Cost Exchange Total -US$Million Equivalent)

GOB 13.0 - 13.0 IDA 33.0 15.0 48.0 UNDP 0.6 2.7 3.3 Korean Government 0.1 0.6 0.7

Total 46.7 18.3 65.0

Estimated Disbursement of IDA Credit:

FY 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 …US$______------us$ 000 …------

Annual 200 3,300 11,000 12,000 12,000 5,000 2,200 2,300 Cumulative 200 3,500 14,500 26,500 38,500 43,500 45,700 48,000

Rate of Return: 23%

Maps: IBRD 18549 - Sub-projects Location Map IBRD 18558R - Gumti Phase I Sub-project IBRD 18559 - Naogaon Sub-project IBRD 18560 - Madhumati-Nabaganga Sub-project BANGLADESH

THIRD FLOOD CONTROLAND DRAINAGEPROJECT

I. BACKCROUND

Rationalefor IDA Involvement

1.01 Bangladeshsuffers from a chronic shortageof foodgrains. The countryachieved an annual growth rate in food productionof 2.6Z over the past ten years comparedto a populationgrowth rate of 2.7Z and a target annual productiongrowth rate of 72 needed for achieving food self-sufficiencyin the 1980s. In addition to the inst tutionaland resource constraintsholding back productiongrowth, most increasein productionhas to come from intensificationsince availablecultivable land is already fully utilized. Intensification,however, is hinderedby flood and drainage problemsof varying intensitiesand by limitedaccess to irrigationfor the majorityof farmers. Of the 9.1 millionha under cultivationduring at least part of the year, over two-thirdsare subjectto water damage due to flooding and poor drainage. The absenceof flood controland drainage facilitieshas been the source of major sufferingdue to destructionof crops and property. It has also preventeddiversification of croppingpatterns and a shift to more productivecrop varieties,and has delayed increasein cropping intensity and developmentof irrigation.

1.02 IDA has been supportingflood controland drainage (FCD) type programsin Bangladeshon the basis that they are prerequisitesfor any investmentprograms aimed at alleviatinghunger and povertyamong a major proportionof the country'sfarmers. Controllingfloods would result in substantialincrease in productionby simplydecreasing the extent of damage to crops, thus at least ensuringfarmers their daily food. Under conditions of controlledwater flow, intensificationof agriculturethrough investments in improvedinfrastructure, technology and servicesbecomes a logical subsequent step.

1.03 Presentlythere are about 3 milLion ha with drainageand flood control facilitiesof varying quality. There are also about 4 million addi- cionalha which would likelyrequire such facilities. Based on past experience,resources required to meet the country'sflood controland drainageneeds could reach US$2 billion.l/Civen the magnitudeof the resources needed, IDA's financialinput will continue to be requiredregardless of

1/ This estimateis based on US$500 per ha which is the estimateunder the presentapproach of addressingthe needs of a definedarea at a time. -2-

foreseeable contributions by ocher agencies and by the Covernment over the next decade. More importantly. IDA continues to have a critical role to play in assisting Bangladesh with (i) selecting technically and economically viable and socially acceptable approaches to water control; (ii) initiating agricultural development in areas protected from floods and equipped with drainage facilities; and (iii) promoting the development of institutions capable of ensuring that FCD-type investment programs provide the intended services Lo cheir clientele.

Project Back8 round

1.04 The Government of Bangladesh (GOB) has requested the International Development Association (IDA) for assistance in financing a flood control and drainaFheproject covering a cultivable area of about 104,500 ha in the Dis- tricts of Comilla, Naogaon, Magura and Narail. The proposed project is similar in its objectiv.s and design to several ongoing projects, including two supported by IDA cr lits (Cr. 864-SD and Cr. 1184-BD). The proposed Third Flood Control and Drainage Project (FCD III) reflects GOB's commitment to promote full use of the productive potential of the country's scarce land resources by controllinp floods. improving drainage and increasing access to irrigation. n aldition to their direct benefits, thcse actions are viewed as a means for expanding farmers' access to the benefits from COB's other agricultural development efforts, particularly those related to the provision of services, such as research. input supply, extension and credit.

1.05 The project was prepared by the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) assisted by the Netherlands Development Consultants (NEDECO). Funding for feasibilitv studies was provided under IDA's fourth technical assistance credit. The first group of three sub-projectscovering a gross area of abo t 128.400 ha are included in the proposed FCD III project. Feasibility studies for another two subprojects covering a gross area of about 75.000 ha are scheduled for completion inmid 1985 and are expected to form the basis for a FCD IV project. An IDA appraisal mission comprising Messrs. S. Cafsi. C.P. Cheng, C. Schokman. R. Stevenin. Y. Ali and Ms. S. Lysy visited Bangladesh in July 1984. This report is based on the findings of the appraisAl mission. It also gives dte consideration to the conclusions ot a review of the first and second flood control and drainage projects (Credits 864-BD and 1184-BD) organized in May 1964, in part as a preparation tor the apprnisal of FCD II!.

Agricultural Sector BacI'ground

1.06 AKriculture in the economy. The agriculture sector generates over half ot Bangladesh s CDP; it employs about three-tourthsof the labor force; and it contributes over 80: of export earnings. Agriculture is dominated by the crop sub-sector where over 70: of the agricultural value-added originates. compared to about 15% trom livestock. l0: from fisheries and 5: from forestry. The Second Five-Year Plan (SFYP FYSI-85) gives high priority to increased foodvrain production as a means of meeting minimum nutritional standards tor the cournrv' s increasing population. The main thrust of the SFYP with regard to agriculture is to help farmers acquire more control over their production environment through development of irrigation facilities. construction of tlood control and drainage works. reduction in market related uncertainties. and widespread use of productivity increasing practices. -3-

1.07 Prad4ztionenvironment. Bangladeshis situatedin the deltas of three major rivers - Cange.,Brahmaputra and Meghna. The terrainis criss-crossedby some 24,000km of waterways. Alluvialflood plains occupy about 80% of the total 144,000sq km land area. Duringthe monsoon season (May/Juneto October/November),approximately two-thirds of the cultivable land (9.1 N ha) is floodeddeeper than 0.3 m for three Lo five months. Areas along the riverssuffer from overbankflooding, while elsewhereheavy rains and the relativelyflat terraincause extensivedrainage congestion. The average annual rainfall varies from about 1,270 mm in the western part of the countryto about 5,000 mn in the northeast. Rainfallis characterized by wide seasonalfluctuations, with about 90% occurringin the monsoon period. In spite of an apparentoverall abundance of rainfall,serious droughts occur occasionally and soil moisture content is normally insuffi- cient to supportcropping without irrigationin the dry season (Novem- bar-May).

1.08 Nearly all arable land in Bangladesh is under cultivation. Average croppingintensity is about 140%, aLthough it is well acceptedthat climatic conditionspermit a croppingintensity of well over 200%. The most important crop is rice, cultivatedon over three-fourthsof the croppedarea. Jute, the principalexport crop, in grown on about 6% of the croppedarea. Other crops, in order of importance of acreage, include wheat, pulses, oilseeds. sugarcane, tea, spices and vegetables. Less than 20% of cultivated area is irrigated.compared to an identifiedwater resourcespotential for irrigating about 50% of the cultivated area using the known potential for surface and groundwater supply. The absence of tlood control and drainage facilities on a major part of that area has prevented a shift from the long-stem low-yield rice varieties to the short-stem fertilizer responsive varieties. moreover, inadequate moisture content in the soils during the dry season has prevented a possible increase in cropping intensity in the absence of irrigation facilities.

1.09 Although average land holding is about 1.4 ha. over 25S of farm families own less than 0.5 ha and over one third of rural households own no land. Mostly as a result of population pressure and the absence of opportunities for horizontal expansion, the proportion of rural households who are landless or functionally landless (owning less than 0.2 ha) has been increasing. This trend, combined with limited non-agricultural employment opportunities has led to an increasing percentage of the rural population below the poverty line (defined as a d:ily intake of 2.100 calories) from 65% in 1964 to an estimated 75% in 1982. This widespread poverty in rural areas limits investment in required on-farm development and production inputs. In addition, transport infrastructure (roads and water transport facilities) and agricultural services (research, input supply, seed production. marketing, credit and pump maintenance) remain inadequate vis-a-vis existing needs.

1.10 Policy framework. Development efforts in the agricultural sector are aimed primarily at achieving foodgrain self-sufficiency by increasing local foodgrain production. The strategy for reali:ing this objective is based on policy options favoring increased reliance on private sector initia- tive. reduction of public subsidies and improved domestic resource mobi- lization. Government is implementing measures (i} to encourage private ownership of irrigation equipment and private participation in the zielding -4- of such equipment; (ii) to reduce subsidies on fertilizer and irrigation equipment with the anm of progressiveLy eliminating them; (iii) to increase the availability ot and farmers' access to agricultural credit; and (iv) to motivate farmers to increase production in response to favorable prices for foodgrains.

1.11 major institutions serving agriculture. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (MOA) and the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control (MOI) are che poLicy making bodies for all matters pertaining to Agricultural Development in Bangladesh. Two major semi-autonomous agencies are responsible for planning and implementing water related development programs. The Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC), which is linked to the MOA, is responsible for the development of minor irrigation systems: low-lift pumps, hand tubewells, shallow tubewells and deep tubewells. The Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), which is linked to MOI, is responsible for planning, implementationand operation and maintenance of flood control and drainage schemes, and medium and major irrigation systems.

1.12 Several agencies provide agrieultural services in support of water development programs. BADC has been the major supplier of farm inputs (fertilizer. seeds. irrigaLion equipment). Some of these responsibilities are being progressively trAnsferred to the private sector. IDA has supported these privatization efforts in the context of successive imports program credits, agricultural credit projecLs and water development projects. The Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council coordinates the research activities of speciali:ed research inStitutes covering rice (BRRI). jute (BJRI), sugar (SRI). forestry (FrRI), tishery (FsRI), tea (TRI). livestock (LRC), and other crops and horticulture (BARI). IDA has supported the establishment of BARC under Cr. 82a-BD and is suppurting the funding of applied research programs under Cr. 1215-BD. The Department ot Agriculture Extension of MOA provides extension services supported under IDA Cr. 1215-BD. Institutional lending for agriculture is directed and coordinated by the Bangladesh Bank and channeled through conmercial and cooperative financial institutions. Institutional credit has been available to less than 20S of farmers. leaving Lhe others dependent on their own limited resources or on non-institutional forms of lending. The issues affecting the availablity of credit and farmers' access to it were addressed in a joint COB/IDA Review of Agricul- tural Credit. Operational constraints interfering with adequate and timely flow of credit to tarners are also being addressed under IDA Cr. 1147-BD and the proposed thirteenth Imports Program Credit. The Bangladesh Rural Development Board (BRDS) promotes the growth of farmer cooperatives under the UCCA/ISS sytem (Upaziln Central Cooperative AssociatioOn and Krishi Sam4bAy Samities). These cooperatives collect thritt deposits, promote group management of minor irrigation equipment and provide credit and inputs to small farmers. Support to BRDB and the UCCA/KSS system was provided under IDA Credits 631-BD and 1384 -dD.

IDA's Role and Lendi_n!St_-.ttev!

1.13 IDA lending.to Bangladesh has emphasized the agricultural sector. reflecting the country's nceds and its priorities. Particular emphasis has been placed on witer resources deveiopment (irrigaLioa. flood control and drainage). on ..trengthening agricultural services (tecmnology development and -5- supply, credit and marketing) and on the development of complementary infrastructural faciLities in other sectors (transport, power, industry). Increased Eood production, particularly rice and wheat, has been the target of IDA Lending in agriculture. On-going projects sLpported by IDA in the agricultural sector include a large number addressing constraints to the expansion of irrigation and water control: Barisal Irrigation (Cr. 542-BD), Karnafuli Irrigation (Cr. 605-BD), Muhuri Irrigation (Cr. 725-BD), Drainage and Flood Control I and II (Credits 864-BD and 1184-BD), Hand Tubewells (Cr. 1140-BD), Low Lift Pump (Cr. 990-BD), Deep Tubewells II (Cr. 1287-BD), Agriculture Credit (Cr. 1147-BD), Rural Development I and II (Credits 631-BD and 1384-BD), Small Scale Drainage and Flood Control (Cr. 955-BD) and BWDB Small Schemes (Cr. 1467-BD).

1.14 In addition, IDA staff have participated with Government staff in a number of joint studies. Of special significance was the Land and Water Resources Survey (1972) which led to a change in water resources development strategy in favor of low-cost irrigation and water control schemes. More recent joint studies include assessments of the Water Development Board (1979) and the Minor Irrigacion Sector (1982). Finally, IDA is executing agency for the UNDP-financed National Water Plan Project. These studies helped support a series of Imports Program Credits and accompanying policy reforms in agriculture, including such important policy decisions as the move towards privatization of procurement and distribution of irrigation equipment and other farm inputs, the move towards rationalization of Government approaches to foodgrain procurement and farm input pricing, and the move towards creating favorable conditions for improved access to institutional credit. These studies also helped in bringing to the attention of decision-makers in Bangladesh the urgency of policy action on such outstanding issues as funding and organization of the functions of operation and maintenance for completed infrastructural facilities, and the recovery of the cost of operation and maintenance works as well as of the initial capital costs from beneficiaries. These and other issues continue to be part of the substance of the on-going dialogue between IDA and Government.

Lessons from the Past

1.15 Although no Project Performance Audit Reports (PPARs) have been prepared for FCD type projects in Bangladesh, past experience was brought to bear on the design of FCD III through supervision of IDA credits 864-BD and 1184-BD, available PPARs on irrigation projects in Bangladesh, and a review of BWDB's experience in other flood control and drainage improvement schemes in the country. Important lessons reflected in the design of this project include: provision for irrigation development where proven water resources exist; provision for preparation of a comprehensive pLan for intensification of crop, livestock and fish production following the completion of flood protection works; provision for upgrading available knowledge on the characteristics of rivers to allow for proper planning of future development activities and for proper assessment of the potential impact of flood control works on a river basin wide basis; taking into consideration the water transport requirements (including country boats) and fish migration patterns in the design of water control structures; and better planning for land acquisition and operation and maintenance-related activities. -6-

II. THE PROJECT

Project Concept

2.01 The project is based on the "simple polder" concept which consists of an embankment constructed around an area with water control structures to permit the discharge of internal runoff when river water level is low and to prevent overbank flooding when river water level is high. This technique is suitable in areas with shallow to moderate flooding, not requiring high embankments or pump drainage. The areas included under this project belong to this category. Other criteria underlying the selection of the pro,ect areas are given in Annex 1. In the country context, control of flooding and improved drainage are regarded as: (i) interventions necessary for lowering the crop losses due to the high incidence of floods - this being a means to reducing food shortages in areas covered by the project; and (ii) a prerequi- site for making feasible the initiation of other development programs aimed at the intensification of crop, fish and livestock production practices. IDA has considered the international aspects of the project and is satisfied that the project would not be harmful to the interests of other riparians.

2.02 The project is, therefore, conceived as the means for dealing with the immediate need of protecting crops from flood damage, while creating an environment more conducive to intensification of agricultural production. ALthough the project does not directly provide for such intensification, it does provide for the preparation of programs for making use of the newly improved production environment to increase the production of crops, fish and livestock. The project provides also for strengthening BWDB by complementing programs initiated under other IDA-supported projects. The two functions particularly targeted are design and construction monitoring, along with an attempt at identifying ways for addressirg the critical issue of staff motivation and for improving BWDB's operational practices and management procedures.

Project Objective

2.03 The primary objective of the Third Flood Control and Drainage Project is to protect cropped areas, as well as people and their properties from fLoods, to make further development in agriculture and fisheries possible, and to promote increased food production as a result of (i) reduction in crop losses due to flooding; (ii) making it feasible for an increased number of farmers to shift from broadcast deep water to transplanted shallow water rice cultivation in the aman (monsoon) season with supplementary irrigation when feasible; (iii) increase in the area under boro (dry season) cultivation as a result of a shorter aman season and improved irrigation facilities in part of the project area; and (iv) expansion of the area under improved crop varieties. The project has two other objectives: (i) supporting on-going efforts to strengthen BWDB's institutional capability; and (ii) improving the information basis for planning further development in the project areas. The latter would include updating and expanding existing information on the river basins and on groundwater (for potential development by hand tubewells, shallow tubewells and deep tubewells) in areas where such information is -7- lacking, and for preparing programs for the intensification of crop, fish and livestock production in these areas.

Project Description

2.04 The project would involve three sub-projects -- Gumti Phase I, Naogaon Polder I, and Madhumati-Nabaganga -- strengthening of BWDB, studies and investigations, and preparation of programs for agriculture and fisheries development. Project works would include construction/improvementof embankments and water control structures, excavation/constructionof drainage channels, improvement/constructionof irrigation facilities, and upgrading of road networks to faciLitate the construction of water control structures and- their subsequent operatio"nand maintenance.

2.05 The Gumti Phase I sub-project is located in the Comilla District (IMRD Map 18558R). It is bounded by the Gumti River on the North and East, the Comilla-Daudkandi road on the South and a road connecting the C.nm- illa-Daudkandi road with Gouripur on the West. The project area is within Upazillas of Daudkandi, Muradnagar, Debidwar, and Baucharampur. It covers a gross area of 37,300 ha of which about 29,500 ha are cultivable. The area which slopes in the east-west direction towards the Meghna River is part of the Gumti-Meghna flood plain and is intersected by an irregular ner:.-.ckof natural drains (khals), old courses and spill channels of the Gumti River. The micro relief is flat to slightly undulating. From about May to October the eastern section of the project area is flooded to depths up to 0.6 meter and the western end to depths up to 2 meters, due to a combination of overbank spilling of the Gumti River, high water stages of the Meghna River and local rainfall. These floods adversely affect the late growth and harvest of transplanted aus and boro crops and the early aman crop. Cultivation of jute and sugarcane in the river bed restricts water flow and aggravates flooding in the project area. A significant proportion of these crops are cultivated on Government owned land leased out to private cultivators. A smalL area is under irrigation using the limited supply of the Gumti River during the dry season and groundwater resources. River bank erosion along the Gumti River up to the Meghna flood plain is very severe due to silting up and the meandering of the River channel. Assurances were obtained from Government that cultivation in the Gumti river bed would be controlled by discontinuin& the leasing out of public land.

2.06 The Gumti Phase I sub-project provides for controlling floods through an improved drainage system, embankments on both sides of the Gumti River and water control structures. Although the area on the right bank of the Gumti is not covered by the sub-project, embankment on the right side of the river is included to protect the northern part of the Gumti-Titas river basin from possible increased flooding due to the sub-project. Moreover provision is made for a study of the Gumti-Titas river basin, including aerial photography cover, and for the preparation of a Cumti Phase II project aimed at protecting and developing the area of the basin not covered under this project (Annex 2). Provision is also made for improving irrigation facilities on about 3,700 ha and extending irrigation to an additional 10,650 ha using a primary pump station on the Meghna river. Low lift pumps to supply water at the farm level would be provided under existing supply arrangements and their operation would follow procedures established under -8-

the national Irrigation Management Program (IMP). In order to promote efficient on-farm water use, this sub-project provides for the establishment and operation of On-Farm Demonstration Units for improving water management (Annex 2). Existing navigation routes will not be affected except at the intersection of the Cumti and the Siddheswari Nadi where a navigation lock is incorporated in the Siddheswari regulator. In addition, the sub-project would provide for improvement of the existing road network as required for access to construction sites and subsequent operation and maintenance of the water control structures. The hydrological and morphological study of the Gumti-Titas basin would provide a basis for verifying that works under this sub-project are consistent with further flood control measures and irrigation development in the whole basin, and would provide the necessary data for the preparation of further development programs in the basin.

2.07 The Naogaon Polder I sub-project is located in the Naogaon District (IBRD Map 18559). It is bounded by the Naogaon-Mohadebpur trunk road on the North, the Atrai River on the west and south and the Little Jamuna River on the East. The project area is within the Upazillas of Naogaon, Mohadebpur, Manda, Raniragar and Atrai. It covers a gross area of 46,100 ha of which about 37,000 ha are cultivable. The project area is part of the upper Atrai flood plain and has a gentle slope to the south-eastern direction towards the Brahmaputra River. The land within the area is basically flat (grade of 3 cm per km) with three beels (low area flooded year round) occupying about 10% of the gross area. The project area is annually prone to inundation as a result of impeded drainage and river spills. In a normal year about 32,000 ha (70% of the gross area) is subject to flooding. Approximately 9,000 ha are inundated to depths of 0.60 to 0.90m and about 5,000 ha inclusive of the beel areas are inundated to more than 3m. These floods cause severe damage to aus, boro and aman crops. As in the case of Guzti, cultivation of parts of the river bed aggravates the flooding of the project area. During the dry season, irrigation is mainly by means of shallow and deep tubewells. Surface water resources are limited due t, upstream abstraction from the Atrai River. As in the case of Gumti, Government assurances were obtained that cuLtivation in the Atrai river bed would be controlled by discontinuing the leasing out of public land in the river bed.

2.08 The Naogaon Polder I sub-project would provide for controlling floods through an improved drainage system, embankments along the Atrai and Little Jamuna rivers and water control structures. It would also provide for improving the road system to allow access to construction sites and for operation and maintenance of the facilities built. In addition, provision is made for an aerial photography cover of the area and for the hydrological and morphological study of the Atrai River (Annex 2) to assess the impact of floods on adjacent areas under post-project conditions and provide data for the preparation of a plan for the comprehensive development of the Atrai basin. No investments are planned for the specific purpose of irrigation development. However, provision is made for flushing sluices to be designed for the dual purpose of drainage and irrigation. Their invert levels will be sufficiently low to divert water during the dry season from the Atrai river into khals in the sub-project area. rn addition, re-excavated khals, construction of new secondary canals and installation of water control structures would allow storage of water for use during drought periods in the wet season and for limited irrigation of boro and early aus crops. Although there is a potential for expansion of irrigation by means of gr'undwater -9-

resources, none is recommended as part of this sub-project as Government is in the process of defining rules and procedures for siting shallow and deep tubewells.

2.09 The Hadhumati-Nabagangasub-project is Located in the Magura and Narail Districts (IBRD Map 18560). The area is bounded by the Gorai-Madhumati River to the east, the Nabaganga River to the west, the Hagura-Kamarkhali highway to the north and the Halifax cut to the south. It falls within the Upazillas of Hohammadpur and Lohagara and covers a gross area of 45,000 ha of which about 38,000 ha are cultivable. The sub-project area is part of the middle deltaic flood plain of the Ganges River and has a gradual slope of 10 cm per km in a south-eastern direction towards the Bay of Bengal. The lowest parts of the basin which occupies about 2,500 ha are permanently submerged and serve as one of the main water sources during the dry season. In most parts of the sub-project area, submergence of agricultural land occurs frequently during the monsoons due to overbank spilling of the Gorai-Madhumati River combined with local rainfall. Flood depths in a normal year (return period of 2 years) is more than Im in about 10,000 ha including the beel area of 2,500 ha. These fLoods affect both the aus and the aman crops. At present, there is a limited area irrigated by means of low lift pumps and traditional Lifting means. The use of shallow tubewells is restricted because the ground water table is too deep in the north and west and because water bearing formations have low permeability in the middle and south of the area. The use of deep tubewells is limited although some potential for their use may exist in the north; this needs confirmation and a study for determining the reliable yield and optimal siting of wells is provided for under this project (Annex 2). Doubts about the quality of groundwater in the southern area is also a reason for limited development of irrigation.

2.10 The Madhumati-Nabaganga sub-project would provide for the construction of embankments along the Madhumati and Nabaganga rivers, improving and extending the drainage system, and installation of structures to regulate water flow. It would also provide for upgrading the road network to the extent necessary for implementation of sub-project works and for their future operation and maintenance. In addition, provision is made for an aerial photography cover of the area and for the hydrological study of the Gorai River. An evaluation of the potential for irrigation using groundwater resources is also planned. However, no investments are included for the specific purpose of irrigation development. Availability of surface water resources from the Gorai River is uncertain due to inadequate knowLedge about the water regime, downstream requirement for navigation, present and proposed abstraction downstream, and the apparently unstable nature of the river which could cause siltation problems at the intake to pump stations. The Nabaganga River has virtually no water during the dry season.

2.11 Guidelines for the studies and investigations provided for under the project are given in Annex 2. The hydrological and morphological studies in all sub-projects and the groundwater study in the Madhumati-Nabaganga sub-project would be based on data collected by BWD8. BWDB would use any suitable and tested river or groundwater simulation models which could be supplied by MPO in a timely manner and without in any way causing delay in the implementation of any project component. Otherwise BWDB and their consultants would develop the necessary models and subsequently would make them -10- available to MPO in order to avoid duplications. The simulation models are required for studying the rivers concerned to enable an assessment of the hydraulic and morphological changes in the river basins associated with alternative flood control and water development scenarios. BWDB staff would be trained in the calibration and use of such models. Aerial photography wouLd serve for checking the rivers evoLution and for preparing contour maps for the detailed design of drainage and irrigation systems. This work would be undertaken by internationally recruited specialists. Provision would be made for a representative of Government to be present while aerial photographs are being taken. The feasibility study for the Gumti Phase II Project would be undertaken under a separate contract, excluding the aerial photography. Water management demonstrations would be conducted by the locaL agricultural staff following the principles of the on-going NationaL Irriga- tion Management Program (IMP) introduced under the RuraL Development I Project (Cr. 631-BD) to maximize irrigation equipment utilization and minimize cost of operation. Under this program, BRDB, BADC and DAE officers at district and Upazila levels are jointly responsible for supporting UCCA and KSS cooperatives to: (i) adopt improved water management practices; (ii) train managers and chairmen of KSS, UCCA inspectors, village accountants, block leaders, fieldmen, and tubewell operators; (iii) prepare land maps and land registers; (iv) lay out irrigation channels; (v) prepare irrigation budgets; and (vi) obtain production credit.

2.12 Programs for agriculture and fisheries development in the three sub-project areas would be prepared to serve as a basis for mobilizing the necessary complementary resources and services to make optimum use of the newly improved production environment (Annex 2). Since no provision was made under the previous two IDA supported flood controlled drainage -rojects (Credits 864-BD and 1184-BD) for planning agricultural and fisheries development following completion of the flood control works, FCD III would provide for the preparation of area specific development programs. The preparation of these programs would be initiated soon after FCD III becomes effective since both Credits 864-BD and 1184-BD are at an advanced implementation stage. In the case of fisheries, the preparation of the program would include a study of the impact of flood control measures on natural fisheries, as a means for identifying ways to limit such negative impact. The agriculture and Eisheries development programs would be prepared in close cooperation between the Directorate of Planning Schemes I (DPS I), the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests and the Department of Fisheries, and local authorities and the project beneficiaries of the three Flood Control and Drainage Projects supported by IDA. MOI would be responsible for coordination among these agencies. Government assurances were obtained that agricultural and fisheries development programs for areas covered under Credits 864-BD and 1184-BD would be submitted to IDA for discussion no later than July 31, 1987 and those for this project no later than July 31, 1990. Procedures for implementationof those programs, including the possibility of IDA support for follow-up projects, would be agreed between Government and IDA following review of the proposals.

2.13 Strengthening of BWDB (Annex 3). Experience with other flood control and drainage projects has shown that an important reason for delay in project implementation has been limited capabilities within BWDB for design, for planning project impLementation, for organizing and monitoring survey activities, and for construction monitoring. Correcting this situation would -11-

require improvement in work procedures (proper scheduling of operations), staff training, improved staff motivation, and enhancing the multi-disciplinary nature of project planning and implementation teams. This project provides for the introduction of measures aimed at (i) giving BWDB an opportunity for attracting, motivating and retaining qualified planning, design and construction monitoring staff; (ii) on-the-job training both in the context of this project and through organized short term training abroad, workshops and seminars; and (iii) providing for technical assistance to BWDB for the specific purpose of implementing this project. The Latter is necessary while BWDB staff are being trained and prepared to take over an increasing share of the technical responsibility in the implementation of flood control and drainage projects.

2.14 Provision is made for establishing a Project Management Unit (PHU) under the Chief Engineer Planning to be responsible for overall planning, coordination and monitoring of project implementation (para 4.03). PMU would be given qualified staff (para 2.15). Technical assistance would be provided to assist PMU with the impLementation of this project and with developing a capability within BWDB to impLement future prejc-ts. PMU and its consultants would, thus, assume responsibility for (i) assisting field divisions with planning the implementation of those parts of project works assigned to them; Cii) monitoring engineering surveys, foundation investigations and detailed designs; (iii) overseeing the preparation and processing of tender documents and contracts by field Divisions; (iv) monitoring progress in the construction program; and (v) monitoring the quality of construction works. DPS I would be responsible for organizing and monitoring the preparation of the agriculture and fisheries development plans and for preparation of a feasibility study for the Gumti Phase II Project.

2.15 PMU would consist of a Project Manager, a senior design engineer as Deputy Project Manager, three design engineers, one planning engineer and four design and planning engineers. This team would be supported by three surveyors, two draftsmen and eleven support staff (accountants, secretaries, clerks, drivers). The Project Manager with qualifications satisfactory to IDA would be appointed by BWDB. The senior design engineer, the three design engineers, the planning engineers and the four design and planning engineers would be recruited according to Government procedures regulating employment of Bangladeshi nationals in projects with foreign financial support. The Project Manager and DPS I staff would be expected to ensure direct and frequent contact between headquarters and field staff and would ensure that the works and studies being implemented reflect local realities and needs.

2.16 It is recognized chat training and improved work conditions, as staff motivation measures, represent only a limited short term solution to the issues impeding staff motivation in BWDB. Therefore, as an initial step towards identifying a longer term solution, the project would provide for establishing an inter-agency study group to: (i) formally identify and provide a ranking for the reasons underlying the lack of staff motivation in the fields of planning, design and construction monitoring; (ii) review cases (if any) in Bangladesh where such limitations existed and were resolved; and (iii) visit other countries and review their experience, particularly the experience with establishing autonomous planning and design units in such countries as Sri Lanka, Korea and India, among others. The study group would develop proposals amenable to implementation with a minimum of disturbance to -12-

the existing institutional arrangements. Such proposals would be reviewed by Covernment and IDA. The financial and administrative arrangements for their implementationwould be agreed at that time. Government assurances were obtained that the inter-agency study group would be established, terms of reference agreed with IDA and that a report would be submitted to COB and IDA for discussion no later than December 31, 1986.

2.17 Two senior engineers (6 man-years over a 4 year period) would be provided to PMU as a grant under Korean Government technical assistance. As advisors to PMU, they would help the Project Manager with the identification of training requirements of individual staff members, organization of workshops and seminars, and the preparation and execution of appropriate training programs based on participation in all phases of project implementation and/or planned programs of on-the-job training abroad. They would also assist PMU in supervising project implementation, provide technical support as required, and monitor the quality of construction works.

2.18 For the specific purpose of project implementation, BWDB would be assisted by a local consulting firm (34 man years of senior technical staff supported by three draftsmen, six surveyors and nine technical assistants over a 6 year period) supported by three expatriate engineers (7.5 man years over a 5 year period) with broad experience in engineering design and construction monitoring. The consultancy services requirements were estimated on the basis of BWDB's assessment of its own needs and a joint analysis of BWDB's existing capability for planning project implementation, for detaiLed engineering design and for construction monitoring.

2.19 The project manager would be responsible to the Chief Engineer Planning, BWDB. Consultancy services would be financed by UNDP with IDA as executing agency. UNDP would give advance authorization to proceed with the selection of consultants and the award of a technical assistance contract as soon as possible after credit signing. The appointment of the Project Manager and the effectiveness of funding agreements of other financiers would be conditions of credit effectiveness.

2.20 Training in the form of on-the-job training, seminars and workshops would aim at improving BWDB skills in (i) design and construction monitoring, (ii) organization and management (task identification, work loading and estimating, critical path analysis, budgeting, proposal writing, inter-disciplinarycooperation, quality and cost control), and (iii) project implementation (how to organize engineering surveys and investigations, how to organize procurement, how to select among alternative engineering designs, how to request and evaluate proposals from consultants and contractors). BWDB staff from different departments would be given the opportunity to take part in workshops and seminars. In addition, 18 staff members from the design and construction monitoring units would participate in a program of on-the-job training under this project, and/or in a program of on-the-job training abroad. The cost to the project of such participation is recognized and allowance is made for it in designing the project. A training program would be prepared by PMU and their consultants and agreed with IDA by March 31, 1986.

2.21 Beyond the immediate need to strengthen BWDB's capacity for project preparation and implementation, there are broader and longer tern -13- institutional questions which need to be addressed regarding BWDB's management, internal administration, manpower strength and patterns, operating procedures and its working relationship with other government agencies. Accordingly, the project would provide for a review of the management and administration of BWDB aimed at the consolidation of the findings of previous institutional studies of BWDB into an action plan, supplemented, if necessary, by additional fact finding and analysis (Annex 2). Assurance were obtained that this review would be completed by June 30, 1986, and institutional improvements agreed with IDA would, thereafter, be carried out.

Project Works

2.22 The present status of engineering and detailed design provides an adequate basis for ensuring that cost estimates are reasonably accurate and is expected not to create any hinderance to the timely initiation of first year construction activities. Feasibility studies identified alignment of embankments and location of structures. They also provided bill of quantities for earthworks and corresponding cost estimates based on existing maps. Detailed surveying of longitudinal profiles, geotechnical surveys and final bill of quantities are included in the preconstruction activities which BWDB initiated in December 1984 following the receeding of floods. First year construction involves limited sections of embankments which would serve to facilitate access to construction sites and for which acceptable designs are alrea4y available. Completion of final designs and preparation of a work program for the first project year would be a condition of credit effectiveness.

2.23 Civil works (Base cost US$24.3 M) would include a combination of the following eLements: (i) construction of new embankments and resectioning of existing ones; (ii) excavation of new or rehabilitation of existing drainage channels; (iii) construction of water control structures such as regulators, flushing sluices, cross regulators, and delivery outlets; (iv) construction and improvement of roads, road bridges, culverts and foot bridges; and (v) buildings. Embankments would be adequately compacted and would have a free board high enough to secure them from wave action, subsidence of the crest due to shrinkage and subsoil settlement, and erosion due to human and animal use. Following past practice in Bangladesh, the freeboard will be at least three feet above the design water level which is based on a return period of 20 years. Once the Atrai river studies are completed, a decision would be made as to the need to raise the embankment crest levels in the adjacent Chalan Beel polder (protected under IDA Credit 1184-BD). Adjust- ments would have to be coordinated basin wide in order not to deteriorate flood conditions in one area or another. Any additional works in the Chalan Beel area would be financed under Credit 1184-BD.

2.24 One major difficulty experienced under other IDA-financed flood control projects was that associated with the enforcement of adequate compaction during the construction of earthfill embankments. Although the specifications described in contract agreements have been quite clear about the method to be adopted to obtain the required degree of compaction, ineffective supervision by BWDB staff resulted in sub-standard work. Embankment heights in the three sub-projects are over 3m for about 50 percent of the total length. High river stages continue for well over 10 days during the monsoon season. Sub-standard embankment construction would be a hazard to -14-

local populationfnd could jeopardize all investments in the project area. Accordingly, provision is made for controlled compaction for the embankment fill and for mUn"j 11y operated pneumatic compactors for backfilling behind structures. to fOrther highlight the necessity of compaction, tender documents would prov1ce for Cwo rates: (i) transport of earth from borrow and placing it in laY`rs of 15 cm (inclusive of stripping of top soil in embankment base andioonaw area) and turfing of embankment slopes; and (ii) breaking of Qarch clods, levelling, watering if needed, and compaction by labor intensiVN techniques such as medium weight hand tampers or bullock drawn sheep foot%olJlers. In view of the necessity of ensuring a high standard of constructlCAn each time applications for reimbursement are made against expendituj.Ue;on construction of embankments, BWDB would be required to certify thartTZ4%action was propry done and that embankmnentscon- structed meet u red standsafet . Assurances to that effect were obtainea tOnh Government.

2.25 Drainage Ay5 rems are designed on the basis that they would be capable of releasing a ruAOff of 10 days rainfall with a return period of five years with a submergencflduration not exceeding three days and with a submergence period not exceedi.ngsix days for a return period of 10 years. The tail water level At dtrjnage Structures, which determines the discharge through the vents, was dekermined from the stage hydrograph for the critical period of each sub-prOiejt. The outlet works would be constructed on the dry and would have the StAndard vent size Of 1.50m X 1.80m. The drainage system would generatl) f411ow eXisting khals, canals and old river courses, resulting in relativell low investment Costs. Provision is made for new secondary canals based o t9leassumPtion that 1.5 km of canal is needed to drain 200 ha, which gept%5ents a sufficient conveyance for the runoff of a storm with a return period of 10 years and discharge within three days. The canals would be unlined Ankd have Stable side slopes.

2.26 Irrigati0l development at Gumti would be based on the siting of the primary pump Scackgn at Daudkandi. It wouLd involve a primary pump station equipped with fivt unrijtsof 3 m3/S vertical axial flow pumps, one being a standby, to suPP13 12 m3/s to the feeder canal. The vertical axial flow pumps would be P0'vered through an existing 33 kw powerline. The feeder canal would run east al%Ag the Daudkanji-ComiLla trunk road and would be aligned along the exjsctLl borrow trench aLongside the road. The feeder canal would have two major SYhori crossings besides several road bridges, outlet structures, culvert5 ard foot bridges. Irrigation efficiencies of 75% for the conveyance sy!Sce and 65% for the field irrigation system were assumed, giving an overpli efficiency of about 50%. In order to meet the irrigation water demand, che unp station would have to work a minimum of 17 hours per day during the Pe,k period. Water would be pumped into the feeder canal and from there it w"Xud be supplied by gravity into existing drainage channels. Water distriburioQ to the fields would be by Low-lift pumps organized under the on-going nDtiAnal Irrigation I4anagementProgram.

2.27 Roads toke improved and embankments to be paved were selected on the basis of need for accessibility to construction sites, for use during the operation and fli'1kterance of the project and for use by the extension service for conducting vaker management demonstrations. Roads and embankment pave- ment would Iave a width of 2.4 m of herring bone brick paving, in accordance with established 1gcal standards for rural roads. -15-

2.28 Land acquisition (Base cost US$7.2 M) would involve about 2,100 ha or 1.6Z of a total gross area of about 128,400 ha. The base cost of Land acquisition represents 15% of project base costs. At Gumti the land costs is estimated at Tk 125,000 per ha while land at Naogaon and Madhumati-Nabaganga is estimated at Tk 90,000 and 70,000 per ha respectively. Land acquisition has been a major reason for delay in project implementation. Possession by BWDB of the land required for the first year's construction program would be completed prior to credit effectiveness. In order to facilitate the process, the project would provide the necessary resources (funds, equipment and means of transport) which BWDB would provide to Deputy Comissioners and would ensure that such resources would be used exclusively cor undertaking project related land acquisition activities. BWDBwouLd submit land acquisition plans to DCs nine months prior to construction start-u . Covernment assurances to that effect were obtained during negotiations.

2.29 Operation and Maintenance (Base cost US$2.3 M). The project would provide for the operation and maintenance (O0M) of completed facilities during the five year construction period as well as during two additional years to complete the project. The project would be considered completed when: (i) the necessary measures are taken for ensuring that any deficien- cies in design or construction of project facilities would be identified and corrected; (ii) O&M manuals acceptable to IDA are completed, and staff trained in their use; and (iii) potential beneficiaries and local agencies serving farmers are well informed on how project facilities could be taken advantage of in order to improve production practices.

2.30 Operation of the project would involve (i) regular inspections of embankments, major drainage khals and major irrigation canals; and (ii) operation of regulating gates, primary pumps and water control outlets (turnouts). Preventive maintenance would include routine repairs to embak- ments (such as filling up runnels in slopes, low spots in embankment, returf- ing) painting of gates, servicing of gates' lifting mechanisms, minor repairs to gates and rubber seals, minor repairs to structures' protection works, removal of man made constriction such as fish fences in major khals and repairs of potholes in roads. Annual maintenance would involve clearing of water hyacinth and desilting of khals, replacement of gates if needed, repairs to reguLators, repairs to car.allining, desilting of irrigation canals and repairs to canal structures. Provision would also be made annually for repairs resulting from flood damages, erosion of embankments by meandering rivers and wave actions. O&M duties would be the responsibiLity of BWDB's field divisions. Preventive maintenance and annual maintenance works could be executed under the field Divisions' supervision through small contracts. Assurances were obtained that Government would allocate the necessary funds to ensure proper operation and maintenance of project facilities. Operation and maintenance costs are estimated at about Tk 180Iha for flood control and drainage works and at Tk 275/ha for the irrigation system at Gumti.

Implementation Schedule (Annex 4)

2.31 The project implementation period would be seven years (FY86 through FY92). The three sub-projects would be implemented in parallel. Construc- tion would begin with embankment works in mid FY86. Project construction -16- works would be compLetedin FY 1990. Operationand Maintenanceof project facilitieswould begin as requiredduring the constructionperiod and would continueuntil the end of PY 1992, with a progressivelyhigher share of tha funds coming from BWDD's revenuebudget (para.3.12-f).

III. PROJECTCOSTS, FINANCING,PROCUREMENT, DISBURSEMENT AND ACCOUNTS

ProjectCosts

3.01 Total projectcosts are estimatedat Tk 2,110 million (US$65.0million) with a foreignexcange componentof US$18.3million or 28X of total costs (Table 3.1). Es'imatesare oased on actuaLmid-1984 contractprices, adjusted to reflectexpected prices in mid-1985. The average cost of land for the three sub-projectsis estimatedat Tk 96,000 (US$3,310)per ha. Estimatesof quantitiesprovided in the feasibility reportswere verifiedwith BWDS's fieldofficers during appraisal. Estimates of quantitiesof earthworksare based on cross sectionswhich are already approved,and on longitudinalprofiles derived from availabledata which requirereconfirma ion by actual surveys. The latterare part of agreed preconstructionactivities. Unit cost estimatesfor earthworkfor embankments assume that biddingdocuments would specifythe requirementfor con- trolledmanual compactionand that BUDB would verify that it is done before final payment is made to contractors. Costs of hydraulicstructures and bridgeswere estimatedfrom type designswith foundationconditions to be ascertainedduring preconstructionsurveys and soil investigations.Cost of the irrigationsystem in the Cumti Phase I sub-projectwas based on the feasibilitystudy designswhich are subjectto verificationprior to construction. The cost of engineeringand administrationactivities for which BWDB would be responsibleis estimatedat 15% of che cost of civil works.

3.02 Projectcosts includeUS$2.3 million in taxes and duties. Physical contingencies(10X of the base cost of civiL works) amount to US$2.5 million or about 5% of project base costs. Price contingencies amountingto US$14.4million (302 of projectbase costs)are estimatedon the basis of expectedrates for local and internationalinflation as projectedby the Bank in January 1985. 1/ Detailedcost tables are given in Annex 9.

1/ Bank estimatesof local inflationrates are: 13% for FY86, and 10% thereafter. Internationalrates of inflationare estimatedat 6.3Z for FY86, 7.8% for FY87 and 8% thereafter. -17-

Table 3.1: PROJECTCOST ESTIMATES

Local Foreign Local Foreign Z Foreign Cost Exchan;e Total Cost exchotal Exchange --- Tk Million------US$ Million-

--id Acquisition 207.3 - 207.3 7.2 - 7.2 - ::il Works 537.9 166.7 704.6 18.6 5.7 24.3 23

- ipment 30.6 38.5 69.1 1.1 1.3 2.4 54 1--veysand Investigations 24.4 83.6 108.0 0.9 2.9 3.8 76 adies,Benchmark Surveys& PCR 14.4 25.6 40.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 64 -jineeringand Administration 105.4 - 105.4 3.6 - 3.6 -

-:hnical Assistance& Training 16.6 79.1 95.7 0.6 2.5 3.1 80 trationand Maintenance 58.3 7.8 66.1 2.0 0.3 2.3 13 Total Base Costs 994.9 401.3 1,396.2 34.3 13.6 48.1 28

juicalContingencies 56.8 16.7 73.5 1.8 0.7 2.5 24 :ce Contingencies 460.3 180.0 640.3 10.4 4.0 14.4 28

Total Costs 1,512.0 588.0 2,110.0 46.7 18.3 65.0 28

ProjectFinancing

3.03 An IDA credit of SDR 50.1 million (aboutUS$48.0 million) is proposed that would cover 772 of total projectcosts, excludingtaxes and duties. UNDP and the Korean Governmentwould financethe TechnicalAssistance and Training costs amounting to US$4.0 million, or about 6.4S of project costs, net of taxes and duties. Covernmentwould financethe balanceof project costs US$13.0million (Tk 380 millionequivalent), including taxes and duties throughannual budgetsppropriations in conformitywith the project implementation schedule. Table 3.2 suumarizesthe projectfinancing plan by project component.

Table 3.2: FINANCINCPLAN (US$ Million)

Korean COB IDA UNDP Government Total

Land Acquisition 8.6 - - _ 8.6 Civil Works 1.8 33.0 - - 34.8 Equipment 1.1 1.8 - - 2.9 Technical Assistance and Training - - 3.3 0.7 4.0 Surveys and Investigations 0.4 4.0 - - 4.4 Studies 0.1 1.8 - - 1.9 Engineering and Administration 0.2 4.5 - - 4.7 Operationand Maintenance 0.8 2.9 - - 3.7

Total 13.0 48.0 3.3 0.7 65.0 -18-

3.04 The IDA credit would include US$500,000 for retroactive financing. l3WDSinitiated the following activities in 4nticipation of project approval by IDA: preparation of draft Project Proformas; selection and appointment of survey teams; provision of the necessary staff and transport facilities to the Deputy Commissioner's of£ice; undertaking detailed engineering surveys and investigations for about 1/3 of embankments and drainage channels; initiating morpholoRical investigations; and preparation of tender documents. These activities were initiated to allow a timely start-up of construction works And, more importantly, to sustain interest in the project generated at the local level. Covernment Advanced the necessary funds to BWDB and requmsted that IDA tinance retroactively the actual costs incurred. Such costs are estimaLed at about US$500.000. Covernment was informed of IDA procedures with regard to retroacLive financi4g.

3.05 Approval of_Project Proforma by COB would be a condition of credit atfectivenesq. In order to avoti delay in project effectiveness, Covernment would instruct Deputy Comnissioners to initiate action on processing land acquisition plAns tor the first year construction period following receipt of PEC clearance ot the draft Project Prnforma.

Procurement

3.06 Civil Works (US$34.0 M. including contingencies, but excluding taxes and dutiesT The works would not be suitable for international bidders because the major portion of the works are relatively small, labor-intensive, geographically scattered in areas with difficult access,and spread over a five-year period. The works would, therefore, be carried out under contracts let through standard local competitive bidding procedures (LCB) which IDA has reviewed in the context of on-going projects in the agricultural sector and found acceptable. Contracts for earthwork would be awarded in reaches, while each major structure would generally have a separate contract. Contracts for structures would generally include construction materials. However, in cases where BWDB is in a better position than contractors to procure and transport mat!rials to construction sites on time. it would supply contractors with construction materials procured under LCB. In this case the contracts for structureg would exclude construction materials that would be supplied by BWDS. When contractors are qualified, BWDB would have the option of including in the civil works contracts the fabrication and installation of gates, including embedded parts. If these have not been included, BWDB would award separate contracts under LCB procedures to contractors specialized in this type of work or execute the work on force account basis (FA) utilizing the services of their mechanical engineering unit. For works costing the equivalent of US$150,000 or more, tender documents and bid evaluations would be sent to IDA for review before the contracts are awarded. For all other works, bid evaluation reports together with the contracts would be furnished to IDA before reimbursement is sought. Force account work in respect of earthwork would be permitted but is expected to be limited to 0dM activities and would be restricted to amounts under $5.000 equivalent for each individual case. Force account work in respect of fabrication and installation of gates including embedded parts would be limited to $50,000 for each structure. The use of FA in civil works would be limited to an aggregate amount of US$600,000. -19-

3.07 Surveys and Investigations (US$4.1 M, including contingencies, but excluding taxes and duties) would be undertaken under FA as well as under contract. BWDB would carry out topographical surveys and foundation investigations either on FA or under contracts awarded under LCB procedures acceptable to IDA. Aerial photography cover (Annex 2) would be awarded according to international competitive bidding (ICB). This contract would cover the three sub-projects (about 150,000 ha) as well as about 100,000 ha on the right Bank of the Cunti (to be covered by Gumti Phase II feasibility study). This component would also provide for consultancy services to prepare a Gumti Phase II project based on the Cumti-Titas basin area outside that covered by the present project (Annex 2). These services wouLd be procured according to principles and procedures described in the "Guidelines for the Use of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers and by the World Bank as Executing Agency" as published by the World Bank in August 1981.

3.08 Land Acquisition (US$8.6 M, including contingencies). The staff of BWDB and the Deputy Commissioner would be responsible for the processing. Government would finance land acquisition. Disbursements by IDA would be Limited to processing expenditures (about US$0.08 M) included under surveys and investigations, and would be on FA basis. Land acquisition procedures are described in Annex 5.

3.09 Equipment and Vehicles (US$1.8 H, including contingencies, but excluding taxes and duties). This includes: (i) primary pumping equipment for irrigation; (ii) construction equipment; (iii) transport vehicles; (iv) furniture and office equipment and supplies; and (v) hydrological and morphological equipment. Spares amounting to approximately 15% of the equipment and vehicles value would be procured with the equipment and vehicles. Generally, these would be procured following ICB procedures consistent with the current edition of the "Guidelines for Procurement under World Bank Loans and IDA Credits". For procurement under ICB, a preference limited to 15% of the cif price or the prevailing customs duty, whichever is lower, would be extended to local manufacturers in the evaluation of bids. Small off-the-shelf items costing less than US$10,000 for each contract, which are needed urgently, may be procured by prudent shopping after comparing bids from at least three independent suppliers in accordance with procedures acceptable to IDA. Such procurement would not exceed a cumulative total of US$150,000. Tender documents and advertising procedures for all ICB procure- ments would be reviewed by IDA before issuance by BWDB, and bid evaluations would be reviewed by IDA before contracts are awarded.

3.10 Studies (US$1.8 M, including contingencies but excluding taxes and duties). These include the hydrological and morphological studies, the groundwater study (including preparation of river and groundwater simulation models), the bench mark surveys and evaluation studies, the agricultural and fishery development studies, the water management demonstration units, and preparation of the project completion report (para 2.11 and Annex 2). The hydrological and morphological studies would include the installation of recording instruments, topographical surveys and data collection. These would be conducted by BWDB. The groundwater study which would require the installation of test tubewells, the installation of piezometers, data collection, data analysis and interpretation would be carried out by BWD3, assisted by consultants. Procurement of tubewell equipment would be included in the -20- equipment tender to be floated as described in para. 3.09. Consultants would be selected on the basis of IDA guidelines.

3.11 Technical Assistance and Training (US$4.0 M, including contingencies). This component would be financed through grants from the Korean Government and UNDP. IDA would be the executing agency for the UNDP-financed assistance, which would provide for the appointment of a local consultancy firm with limited international input (para 2.18) with qualifications and experience and on terms and conditions of employment acceptable to IDA in accordance with principles and procedures described in the "Guidelines for the Use of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers and by the World Bank as Executing Agency" as published by the Bank in August 1981.

Table 3.3: PROCUREMENT PROCEDURES (US$ Million)

------Procurement Method /a FA Project Componant IC8 LCB Other Total

Land Acquisition 8.6 8.6 Civil Works 33.6 1.2 34.8 (32.4) (0.6) (33.0) Equipment 1.7 1.2 2.9 (1.7) (0.1) (1.8) Surveys and Investigations 2.9 0.5 1.0 4.4 (2.9) (0.4) (0.7) (4.0) Studies, Benchmark Surveys and PCR 0.8 1.1 1.9 (0.8) (1.0) (1.8) Engineering and Administration 4.7 4.7 (4.5) (4.5) Technical Assistance & Training lb 4.0 4.0 Operation and Maintenance 2.0 1.7 3.7 (2.0) (0.9) (2.9)

Total 5.4 36.1 23.5 65.0 (5.4) (34.8) (7.8) (48.0)

/a Figures in parentheses are the respective amounts to be financed by IDA. Th UNDP and Government of the Republic of Korea assistance. -21-

Disbursemenc

3.12 Disbursement from the proposed IDA credit would cover:

(a) 95% of expenditure on civil works, including work done on force account such as fabrication of gates;

(b) 100% of the foreign expenditure on directly imported irrigation primary pumps, construction equipment, transport vehicles, hydrological and morphological equipment, pump sets and miscellaneous equipment;

(c) 100% of the ex-factory price of equipment manufactured within the country or 70% of local expenditures (off-the-shelf);

(d) 100% of foreign expenditures and 95% of local expenditures on surveys and investigation, aerial photography and studies.

(e) 95% of expenditure on engineering and administration during the construction period, which would be based on 15% of the cost of implemented civil works contracts; and

(f) 95% of sub-project O&M costs during the f"e year construction period 75% in the sixth year and 60% in the seventh year.

3.13 Full documentation would be sent to IDA in support of withdrawal applications except for items (e), (f) above and for force account works and small civil works contracts costing less than the equivalent of $10,000 each. For these items, applications would be supported by statements of expenditures certified by the Chief Engineer and the Project Accountant. The relevant documentation would be retained by B1DB at a central location and made available for review to IDA representatives on request. In addition, this documentation would be subject to audit.

3.14 The proposed allocation of the IDA credit and the schedule of disbursements are given in Annex 6. The disbursement profile reflects the anticipated sequence of sub-project implementation and is based on the assumption that disbursements for work done in a quarter would be completed within the next two quarters. These estimates are consistent with the last disbursement profile for irrigation projects in the South Asia Region which shows a disbursement period of nine years (including retroactive financing period).

Accounts and Audits

3.15 BWDBwould maintain adequate records to identify physical progress and financial transactions relating to the project. Individually identifi- able accounts would be kept for all expenditures for which credit withdrawals would be made on the basis of statements of expenditure (para. 3.13). Separate project accounts would be prepared annually by BWDB. Auditors acceptable to IDA would audit these accounts and statements of expenditures, where applicable. Audited accounts, together with auditors' comments, would be sent to rDA within nine months of the close of each fiscal year. At present, BWDB's accounts are audited by the ControLler and Auditor-General -22- and by BWDB's Internal Directorate of Audits. These arrangements are satisfactory to IDA.

Special Account

3.16 Project works wouLd be carried out by a large number of small contractors whose construction capability depends heaviLy upon the speed at which they receive progress payments, and by force account. To facilitate payments, to ensure availability of funds and to reduce the number of withdrawal applications submitted to IDA, the Government would open and thereafter maintain a Special Account (Revolving Fund) in U.S. dollars with the Bangladesh Bank in Dhaka. The initial deposit into the Special Account would be US$3.0 million representing estimated four month IDA financed expenditures. The Special Account would be replenished by reimbursements on a monthly basis. The Special Account would be used exclusively for IDA's share of financing.

IV. PROJECT MANAGEMENT

4.01 BWDB would be the implementing agency, responsible for surveys, detailed engineering investigations, design, construction, operation and maintenance of completed project facilities. BWDB would also be responsible for implementation of the studies financed under the project and for preparation of a project completion report.

4.02 BWDB was established in 1972 as a semi-autonomous agency with a mandate to plan, construct, operate and.maintain major and medium irrigation systems and flood control and drainage schemes. Responsibility for minor irrigation systems was given to BADC. BWDB is under the administrative control of the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control. It is managed by a Chairman and five board members responsibLe, respectively, for planning, implementation, operation and maintenance, finance, and administration (Chart 1). BWDB's performance in implementing projects has been improving over time, partly as a result of continued support from IDA for upgrading its capability. Special efforts are being aimed at the operation and maintenance functions in the context of BWDB small schemes project, BWDB systems rehabilitation project (under preparation) and in the on-going O&M sector study. IDA has been investigating with Government ways to strengthen the country's monitoring and evaluation capability at the national level and plans are underway to address BWDB's monitoring and evaluation needs under the fourth Flood Control and Drainage project. This project addresses the planning and design functions.

4.03 BWDB would implement the project through a Project Management Unit (PMU) established under the Chief Engineer Planning and given responsibility for overall planning, coordination and monitoring of project implementation, including: planning project implementation; organizing and monitoring the necessary surveys and engineering investigations; overseeing the preparation of the final design of project faciLities; organizing and supervising the hydrological, morphological and groundwater studies (including the preparation of simulation models); monitoring the construction of project facilities; procurement of equipment and consultants; controlling the -23- quality of project works and verifying their adequacy for intended purposes; arranging for farmers, local government agencies and development agencies serving in the agricultural sector to be thoroughly briefed on modalities for making optimum use of project facilities; preparing manuals for construction monitoring and for operation and maintenance of project facilities; overall financial control; and preparing a project completion report. DPSI would be responsible for organizing and supervising the preparation of agriculture and fisheries development plans (para 2.12) and for the preparation of a feasibility study for the Gumti Phase II Project.

4.04 PMU would be assisted by a local consulting firm with limited expatriate specialist input and by two consuLtants provided under Korean technical assistance (Annex 3). PMU would be responsible for keeping beneficiaries and local government continuously informed about progress in project implementation. To that end PMU would organize quarterly meetings (or more frequent when necessary) with farmers' representatives,Upazila and District officials, and representativesof concerned development agencies to inform them of progress in project implementationand agree on ways and means to address any issues hindering such progress. Findings of quarterly meetings would be submitted to BWDB's Chairman and Board Members, to concerned Ministries and agencies, as well as to IDA for information and possible follow up actions. Government assurances were obtained during negotiations that the above practice would be followed.

4.05 At the sub-project level, an Executive Engineer, under the supervision of the zonal Chief Engineer and the Superintending Engineer, would be made exclusively responsible for the daily conduct of construction and operation and maintenance activities in each sub-project area: organizing and supervising the surveys and investigations necessary for land acquisition; cooperating with District Land acquisition officers to arrange for verification of land acquisition plans; preparation of tender documents; selection of contractors and award of contracts; supply of constructionmaterials and equipment when needed; construction supervision and quality control; implementation of works under force account; and accounting and detailed financial control. Each executive engineer would be assisted by three sub-divisional engineers, one for construction supervision, one for procurement and contracts, one for the specific purpose of overseeing O&M activities, and one revenue officer for land acquisition activities (Chart 2).

4.06 Given the short construction season in Bangladesh (about six months), efficient project implementationwould depend heavily on proper scheduling and timely execution of complementary and interdependentactivities. Criti- cal activities are listed below:

(i) staffing and allocation of responsibilities among PMU staff, BWDB field divisions and consultants;

(ii) scheduling of project activities on the basis of consultations between PMU, its consultants, field divisions and local authorities; -24-

(iii) surveys and studies: topography, soil, sub-soil and groundwater investigations, aerial photography, groundwater and river simulation studies, location and alignment of project works including resolution of possible conflicts between project requirements and local private or public interests, agricultural and fisheries studies, Gumti Phase II feasibility study;

(iv) land acquisition: preparation of plans, field verification, placement of funds, transfer of titles and compensation of previous owners;

(v) design of project facilities with due consideration to technical efficiency, cost considerations and suitability for operation and maintenance under local physical conditions, financial arrangements and available skills;

(vi) procurement of materials and services;

(vii) preparation of tender documents, floating of tenders, bid evaluation and award of contracts;

(viii) construction monitoring, quality control, and verifying the suitability of faciLities to local needs;

(ix) modification, repair or upgrading of facilities if found defec- tive;

(x) establishing water management demonstration farms;

(xi) operation and maintenance of project facilities;

(xii) training: design, construction monitoring, water charge assessment and collection, administration and management procedures;

(xiii) construction supervision manual; and

(xiv) O&M manual, including procedures for assessing and collecting water charges.

4.07 In order to manage these activities, PMU would require timely information on progress in the implementation of various tasks. Annual work programs prepared for each sub-project would define work targets and allocate the necessary resources to achieve such targets during the year. Monthly, quarterly and annual progress reports would be submitted to the Project Manager who would forward them to BWDB's Chairman and Board Members and to IDA. Those reports would serve as the basis for monitoring progress in project implementation and undertaking corrective actions if and when found necessary. To that end, the Project Manager would be responsible for identifying and highlighting, in writing, any issues in progress reports which PMU could not address within its own administrative jurisdiction, and, in consultation with field staff and/or local officials, he would be responsible for suggesting alternative courses of action. If a problem remained unresolved for three months, the Project Manager would write a special report to BWDB's Chairman, copied to EDA, suggesting ways to avoid a stalemate, and -25-

suggestingmeasures to be taken, incLuding,if necessary,drastic actions such as reschedulingof projectactivities and changesin projectdesign. Assuranceswere obtainedthat PMU would prepareannual work programsfor each sub-projectand would keep BWDB managementand IDA informedin writingof progressin their implementation,including proposals for addressingout- standingissues.

V. PRODUCTION,MARKETING AND PRICES,FARM INCOMEAND COST RECOVERY

Production

5.01 Mainly as a resuLt of controlledflooding, improved drainage on 104,500ha, and irrigationon 14,350ha, the projectwould contributean annual incrementalproduction of about 100,000tons of paddy and 13,000tons of wheat and other crops (Table 5.1). Increasedproduction would be a result of decreasedharvest lossesduring the ausand boro seasons,increased yield in areas where the productionenvironment becomes favorable to a more widespreaduse of higher yieldingvarieties, and where supplementaryirrigation becomesfeasible for aman, boro rice and other rabi crops during the dry season. Except for the Gumti area, the projectedfuture with projectproduc- tion levels would be achievedwith existingon-farm irrigation facilities, field servicesand presentlyavailable technological practices.

5.02 Presentand predicatedfuture cropping patterns for the three sub-projectsare shown in Annex 7. On-farmproduction parameters are given in the farm budgetsin Annex 8. All are dominatedby paddy; increasedpaddy productionwill be the major benefitof the project. In the Gunti sub-project,where some irrigationequipment is alreadyused, farmerswould be able to expanddry seasoncultivation of boro (HWY)and grow transplanted aman (HYV) with supplementalirrigation. In the Madhumati-Nabaganga sub-project,the major productionimpact would be expectedfrom the introduction of t. amanu(HYV). The NaogaonPolder I sub-projectincreased production would resuLt from a notableexpansion of t. aman (HYV) with supplemental irrigationusing existingtubewells.

5.03 Based on historicalobservations, reduction in flood losseswould be expectedto cause an increasein annual productionof about 20S. This average loss reflectsthe fact that in a dry year lossesmay be negligible, while in a flood year lossesmay reach 100% over large areas. Production wouLd also rise as a result of shift in croppingpatterns and a moderate increasein croppingintensities. Estimatesof expectedyields are based on field observationsunder conditionssimilar to those which would prevail in the projectarea followingconstruction of projectfacilities. Presentand estimatedfuture crop productionlevels for the three sub-projectsare sum- marized in Table 5.1 and detailedin Annex 7. -26-

Table 5.1: CROP PRODUCTION (Metric Tons)

Future Future Incremental Present Without Project With Project Production

(P) (W) (w) (W - W)

Gumti Phase I Paddy 96,750 96,750 140,640 43,890 Wheat 12,000 12,000 16,800 4,800 Jute 4,480 4,480 5,040 560

Naogoan Polder I Paddy 94,760 94,760 140,510 45,750 Wheat 3,400 3,400 5,500 2,100 Jute 2,145 2,145 2,310 165

Madhumati-Nabaganga Paddy 43,070 43,070 54,560 11,490 Wheat 4,200 4,200 4,725 525 Jute 5,100 5,100 7,350 2,250 Pulses 9,350 9,350 10,800 1,450 Oilseeds 4,200 4,200 5,200 1,000

Total Paddy 234,580 234,580 335,710 101,130 Wheat 19,600 19,600 27,025 7,425 Jute 11,725 11,725 14,700 2,975 Pulses 9,350 9,350 10,800 1,450 Oilseeds 4,200 4,200 5,200 1,000

Marketing and Prices

5.04 Domestic foodgrain production falls about 10% short of total consump- tion in Bangladesh. Imports of grains have averaged 1.6M tons per year for the past five years (1980-1984). The incremental production of the project is, therefore, not expected to cause any marketing problem. It is very likely that much of the foodgrain production would be absorbed locally, since all three sub-project areas are currently foodgrain deficit areas. The additional production of oilseeds, jute and puLses would also be absorbed without any difficulty, as the amounts involved are relatively smalL.

5.05 Any surpluses at the sub-project level would be handled by the traditional marketing system. Market prices are largely determined by the supply situation. The IDA-financed Import Program Credits (IPC) IX-XII have supported improvements in the Government's foodgrain procurement and distribution policy. The objective has been to transform the traditional urban-biased public food policy into a set of market-oriented stabilization instruments to promote producer incentives, consumer welfare and food security. The main elements have been: (a) ensuring remunerative output prices to farmers; (b) reducing the direct involvement of the Government in -27- grain trading and promoting the private grain trade; (c) reducing the large subsidies in pubLic foodgrains sales through the traditional rationing system; (d) reducing the share of subsidized public grain distributed to the relatively better-off urban, industrial and public sectors; Ce) increasing the share distributed through channels benefitting the urban and rural poor; and (f) increasing the scope of open-market sales of public foodgrains. While significant progress has been made, some constraints remain and will be addressed as part of IDAs continuing dialogue with GOB.

5.06 In the absence of accurate farm gate prices, current procurement prices are used for paddy and wheat prices in the farm budget analyses. Prices for other crops and farm inpucs are based on prevailing market prices.

Farm Income

5.07 Farm income was analyzed for typical farms in the three sub-project areas. Farm sizes used are 0.8 ha for Cumti and 1.2 ha for Naogoan and Madhumati-Nabaganga. Averaging flood and non-flood years, present yields are about 20% below what they would be without flooding, under identical cultural practices. However, it is important to note that in a flood year the crop loss in certain areas can amount to up to 100Z. Although, without the project, future flood situation would likely be more severe than at present, the analyses conservatively assumed that future conditions would not be worse. A summary of income estimates is given in Table 5.2 and details are given in Annex 8.

5.08 Incremental income would vary by sub-project and across individuaL farmers. However, it would rise on the average by about 30-60% compared to the without project situation. Although the overall income distribution would remain essentially unchanged, the project would substantially reduce the overall level of absolute poverty in the areas. Most importantly, controlled flooding and improved drainage as a resuLt of the project, would permit further agricultural development that otherwise would not be feasible. -28-

Table 5.2: ANNUAL NET FARM rNCOME (Constant FY85 Prices)

Future Future Present Without Project With Project TK US$ TK USS TK US$

Cumti Phase I Total Family Income /a 10,040 346 9,940 368 14,950 554 Average Per Capita Income 1,730 60 1,710 63 2,580 95

Naogoan Polder I Total Family Income 10,920 377 10,920 377 17,260 595 Average Per Capital Income 1,880 65 1,880 65 2,980 103

Hadhumati-Nabaganga Total Family Income 6,180 213 6,180 213 8,220 283 Average Per Capita Income 1,070 37 1,070 37 1,420 49

/a Difference between Present and Future without project in Gumti is due to the fact that water charges are not presently collected, but are expected to be in the future.

Cost Recovery

5.09 Cost recovery from the beneficiaries of flood controL and drainage works is a complex issue. As in many countries, protection against flooding in Bangladesh is considered to be Government's responsibility, and the accepted view is that beneficiaries should not be directly charged. Moreover, benefits from flood control and drainage work vary from one plot to another, depending upon the topography. In the case of some high land owners, the benefits can actually be questionable. Unless cost recovery is done through a land productivity-based system, it appears very difficult to design an equitable system of direct cost recovery. GOB's current view, which is accepted by IDA, is that cost recovery on drainage and flood control projects is not feasible at this stage.

5.10 A revised Irrigation Water Rate Ordinance went into effect in July 1983, and new water rules were issued in January 1984. Specific water charges for completed gravity irrigation schemes were published in June 1984. These rates were based on estimates of the 0&M costs in each project area under consideration. These new rates amount to Tk 125-375 per ha per season depending on crops. Under the new rules, BWDB would be responsible for both the assessment and collection of water charges. Government agreed to initiate the collection of the new water rates in 1985 with a view to recover the cost of O&N by July 1, 1990 (Credit 1467-BD).

5.11 The project provides for irrigation development in the Gumti Phase I sub-project area. Water charges used in the farm budget analysis for Gumti amount to TK 275 ha. This rate was estimated on the basis of full recovery of O& costs of irrigation facilities. In an attempt to strengthen BWDB's capability to assess OEM cost estimates for irrigation projects and to -29- developan institutionalcapability to collectwater charges,the project would provide for undertakingactions in the Cumti area aimed at improving BWDB'smethodoLogy for assessingO&M requirementsand strengtheningits field organization,manpower capability, and proceduresfor coLlectingwater charges. The resuLtsof these actionswould be incorporatedin the O&M manuals to be preparedby PHIl.

VI. BENEFITAND JUSTIFICATION

Productionand Employment

6.01 About 115,000farm families,the equivalentof 670,000people, would directlybenefit from the project. Their presentannual per capita incomes range from Tk 1,000 to Tk 1,900, the equivalentof US$40-65. The project's principaldirect benefitswould be increasedfoodgrain production and employment opportunities. Incrementalfoodgrain production would be 67,000 tons of milled rice and 13,000 tons of wheat and other crops. Direct employment would be permanentlyincreased by about 4.2 million man-daysper year of on-farm labor,at the full developmentstage of the project(project year 10). Two million man-daysper year would be requiredfor earth works during project implementation(project years 1 to 5), and 0.2 million man-daysper year for O&M after the completionof the project'sconstruction phase (projectyears 6 to 30). There would also be a substantialincrease in secondaryemployment for marketing,processing and supplyingfarm inputs.

6.02 At present,there is no scarcityof labor in the projectareas. It is very unlikelythat foreseeabledevelopments in these areas would result in labor shortagein the future. Due to the age compositionof the population, the labor force growth rate in the projectareas is estimatedat 5.4Z or 12,000workers per annum. 1/The incrementaldemand for labor due to the projectshould help to relieve,but will not eliminate,the high unemployment and underemploymentin the projectareas.

EconomicAnalysis

6.03 The economicrates of return (ERR) are estimatedat 22X for Cumti, 28Z for Naogoan and 16Z for Madhumati-Nabaganga.At a discountrate of 12X, the assumed opportunitycost of capital in Bangladesh,the project'sdis- countedbenefits would be US$55 million,and the discountedcosts US$23 million,leading to an economicnet presentvalue of US$32 million. Net presentvalues for each sub-projectare shown in Table 6.1. Economic benefitsand costs are expressedin constantFY85 prices. The assumptions underlyingthe economicanalysis are as follows:

(a) ProjectLife: Thirty years,with full developmentreached in project year 10 (FY95).

1/ Based on informationfrom "StatisticalYearbook of Bangladesh(1981)" and "The ManpowerSituation in ContemporaryBangladesh (1982)." -30-

(b) Prices: Farmgate prices for traded goods are projected on the basis of the January, 1985 IBRD commodity price forecasts (Annex 8). Non-traded goods prices are based on domestic financial prices and are assumed not to change in reaL terms.. With the new Chittagong Urea olanr under construction, it is expected that Bangladesh wiLl beconmea net exporter of Urea by the end of the decade. Therefore. the import parity price is used through 1990 and the export parity price for later years. Domestic prices and price comp2nents are translated into border prices using a standard conversion factor of 0.8.

(c) Project Costs: Project economic costs are given in Annex 8. All costs are included in the economic analysis with the exclusion of price contingencies, cost of land acquisition, costs of non-project specific studies, and taxes and duties. The O&M costs include those incurred during construction and throughout the useful life of project facilities (estimated at 30 years). Replacement cost of the pumping station in the Cumti sub-project is included as part of O&M costs, with an estimated lifetime of 10,000 hours for each pump. Low lift pumps used in the same area are not financed under the project; however, their investment and O&M costs, estimated on the basis of current charges by co-ops in the project area, are incLuded in the economic analysis as part of on-farm cost. Land acquisition costs are excluded from the economic costs of the project on the basis that the true economic cost of land taken out of cultivation is the production foregone. The latter was subtracted from the project benefits. All costs are converted into FY85 terms using the deflators shown in Annex 8. Local costs are expressed in border prices by applying a standard conversion factor of 0.8.

(d) Project Benefits: Benefits would result from expected reduction of crop losses (which will be realized at the completion of construction or project year 5), minor changes in the cropping pattern (with full development reached in project year 10), and yield increases nnrmally realized under-prevailingcultural practices in conjunction with such changes. An estimated decline in production from natural fisheries of about Tk 1.5 miLlion per sub-project was deducted from project benefits. In addition about 300 ha in the river beds would be taken out of production as a result of the project. Production from that area was excluded from project benefits. -31-

Table 6.1: ECONOMIC RATES OF RETURN AND NET PRESENT VALUE

Sub-Project ERR NPV Z (US$p)

Cumti Phase I 22 11 Naogoan Polder 1 28 18 Madhumati-Nabaganga 16 3

Total Project 23 32

Sensitivity Analysis

6.04 Sensitivity tests indicate that the three sub-projects remain viable under a variety of assumptions regarding costs and benefits. As shown in Table 6.2, with costs up 20% and benefits down 20Z or a lag in incremental benefits of two years and a 20% cost increase, the ERRs would remain at or above 12% for all sub-projects. For project to become uneconomical, ise., generate a real rate of return below the assumed opportunity cost of capital (12Z), benefits would have to fall 60% for Cumti, 70% for Naogoan and 45Z for Madhumati-Nabaganga; or costs increase 140Z for Cumti, 250% for Naogoan and 50% for Madhumati-Nabaganga. Such large changes in the benefit or cost streams are unlikely. Flows of economic benefits and costs are given in Annex 11.

Table 6.2: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

…R---- Rate of Return --- Madhumati- Gumti Naogoan Nabaganga

(a) Base case 22 28 16 (b) Project costs increase 20% 20 25 14 (c) Project benefits decrease 20% 19 25 14 (d) Costs increase 100% 14 18 9 (e) Benefits decrease 502 14 18 9 (f) Benefits delayed one year 20 25 15 (g) Benefits delayed two years 18 22 14 (h) Cost increase 20% and benefits decrease 20% 17 22 12 (i) Project costs increase 20X and benefits delayed one year ((b) and (f)) 18 22 13 (j) Project costs increase 20% and benefits delayed two years ((b) and (8)) 16 20 12

Project Risks

6.05 According to supervision reports for ongoing projects and audit reports for completed projects in Bangladesh, project implementation has been hindered by a combination of factors, incltding: -32-

(a) time overrun resulting from an inadequate allowance made for delays due to: li) cumbersome administrative procedures and the associated dilution of responsibility and authority; (ii) weak infrastructure (physical and institutional)resulting in worse logistical constraints than foreseen; and (iii) changes in project environment due to unforeseen internal or external developments affecting the parameters on which the project was based; and

(b) ineffective use of technical assistance due to (i) poor defini- tion of its purpose; and (ii) limited country involvement in its design, selection and monitoring.

6.06 Due consideration was given to these factors in the course of appraising this project. Whenever feasible, specific proposals are incorporated in project design to minimize the likelihood that this project would be affected to a similar extent by the above constraints. Some of these constraints are also being addressed under other projects, and as part of the broader policy dialogue with the country. It should be recognized, however, that the above constraints still exist and concerted efforts would have to be made by the implementing agency to minimize their impact on project implementation and to progressively eliminate them.

6.07 With specific reference to flood control and drainage projects. experience in Bangladesh indicates that one risk facing this project would be delays in processing land acquisition, engineering design, and revisions in Project Proformas. The issue of land acquisition was discussed with farmers' representatives and local and central government officials. No local opposi- tion was raised, and all parties invnlved have agreed to assist in timely preparation and execution of the land acquisition plan. A component of the project is designed to strengthen BWDB's capabilities in planning, design and construction monitoring. BIDB institutional needs are also being strengthened in the context of ctime projects. It should be recognized, however, that this is a long term process and that 8WDB would have to rely partially on the use of consultants. To deal with the ssue of frequent revisions of Project Proformas (PP), it was agreed that a draft Project Proforma be prepared prior to negotiations to ensure conformity between PP and SAR. This PP along with the SAR and the legal documents formed the basis of project negotiations. The need for consultations between COB and IDA prior to changing the PP has been stressed to Governmen. and was further highlighted during negotiations.

EnvironmentalImact

6.08 This project faces two possible environmental risks: possible hinderance to the migration of certain species of fish into the project area, and possible shift of floods to areas not yet protected from floods. A fisheries specialist was included in the appraisal team. Measures are introduced in project design to minimize any negative impact on natural fisheries. In addition. the project provides for studies aimed at improving the under- standing of the link between flood control and natural fisheries. Investiga- tions are provided for under the project to determine the extent of adverse impact on natural fisheries and devise ways to minimize such impact. Project design has already introduced measures to allow migration of the fish into -33- polders throughproperly designed and operatedwater controlstructures. Possiblelosses from natural fisherieswould also be ultimatelycompensated for through fisheriesdevelopment programs to be preparedunder the project. The impact of polderson adjacentareas is also being studiedand sufficient flexibilityis built into projectdesign to allow correctiveaction to be undertakenin light of new information. The proiect providesalso for basin-wideassescment of the impact of flood controL and drainage programs. Account was also taken during projectdesign of the water transportrequire- ments in the areas being protectedfrom floods.

VII. AGREEMENTSAND RECOMMENDATIONS

7.01 Crediteffectiveness would follow (i) appointmentof the Project Manager,and effectivenessof fundingagreements of other financiers (para.2.19); (ii) completionof final designsand preparationof a work program for the first projectyear (para 2.22). (iii) possessionby BWDB of the land requiredfor the first year construction(para. 2.28); and (iv) approvalof the ProjectProforma by GOB (para. 3.05);

7.02 In addition,the followingassurances were obtainedduring negotiations:

(a) cultivationof jute and sugarcanein river beds would be controlled by discontinuingthe leasingout of public lands in river beds to private cultivators(paras. 2.05, 2.07);

(b) agriculturaland fisheriesdevelopment programs for areas covered under Credits864-BD and 1184-Bp would be submittedto IDA for dis- cussionno later than July 31, 1987 and those for this project no later than July 31, 1990 (para.2.12).

(c) the inter-agencystudy group to review staff motivationfor those involvedin planning,design and constructionmonitoring would be establishedin accordancewith terms of referenceagreed with IDA and would submit its report to IDA for discussion,no later than December31, 1986 (para. 2.16);

(d) a trainingprogram would be preparedby PMU and their consultantsand agreed with IDA by March 31, 1986 (para 2.20);

(e) GOB would undertakea consolidationof the findingsof previous studies of BWDB's institutionalcapability, supplemented, if necessary, by additionalinformation gathering and analysis. The study would be completedby June 30, 1986 and a report furnishedto IDA for conments. Institutionalimprovements agreed with IDA would, thereafter, be carriedout (para 2.21);

(f) when submittingbills for reimbursementagainst embankmentworks, BWDB wouLtdcertify that compactionwas properlydone and that embankments constructedmeet requiredstandards for s'fety (para 2.24);

(g) BWDB would provide Deputy Commissionerswith tne resourcesnecessary for verificationand approvalof land acquisitionplans (para. 2.28); -34-

(h) BWDB would submit land acquisition plans to Deputy Commissioners nine months prior to construction start-up (para. 2.28);

(i) government would allocate the necessary funds in BWDBs annual budget for operation and maintenance of project facilities (para 2.30);

(j) PMU would organize quarterly meetings with farmers representatives, Upazila and District officials, and representatives of concerned development agencies to exchange views on progress in project implementation and would report its findings to BWDB management and IDA (para. 4.04); and

(k) PMU would prepare annual work programs for each sub-project and would keep BWDB management and IDA informed in writing of progress in their implementation, including proposals for addressing outstanding issues (para 4.07).

7.03 With the above conditions and assurances, the project would be suitable for an IDA credit of SDR 50.1 million (US$48 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms. The Borrower would be the Government of Bangladesh. -35- Annex 1

BANGLADESH

THIRD FLOOD CONTROLAND DRAINAGE PROJECT

Criteriafor Selectionof Sub-Projects

1. The total irrigationinvestment per net ha shall not exceed US$620 (at 1980 prices);the per ha drainageand flood control investmentshall not exceedUS$500 (at 1980 prices) including cost of land acquisition;

2. Each sub-projectshall be at least 8,000 ha net;

3. In this early phase of the program,drainage is to be by gravityor tidal outlets;

4. The projectwill be primarilylocated in shallowflooded areas. Along 80% of the lengthof the embankmentalignment, the normal flood depth shall not be in excess of 4.5 ft and along the remaining20% not in excess of 6 ft. Submersible embankmentsshould also be given considerationin areas such as Sylhet;

5. Beneficiariesshould indicatesupport for the project.

6. The embankmentsshall give protectionagainst 20 years floods, dependingon the location,and against 100 years floods if significantloss of life may occur;

7. Due considerationgiven to the potentialeffect of proposed improvementson flood conditionsin adjacentareas, on navigation and on existingfisheries.

8. Each sub-projectshall be self containedeven if such a project is a phase of an envisagedbigger project.

9. The constructionof projectworks shall, if possible,be by labor intensivemethods and by utilizingas far as possible, indigenousmaterials, consistent with sound engineeringprac- tices;and

10. The economicrate of return shall not be less than 15% for flood controland drainageworks and not less than 20% when irrigationdevelopment is added. Annex 2 Page I

BANGLADESH

THIRD FLOOD CONTROL AND DRAINAGE PROJECT

Guidelines for Studies and Investigations

1. Hydrological and morphologicaL studies at Cumti Phase I and Naogaon PoLder I are scheduled to commence in FY84/85 for a period of three years. The hydrological study at Hadhumati-Nabaganga sub-project is scheduled to commence in FY85/86 and be completed at the end of FY86/87. The groundwater study at the Madhumati-Nabaganga sub-project is scheduled to commence in FY85/86 and be completed at the end of FY86/87. The project would provide for:

(a) installation of the hydrological and groundwater equipment;

(b) carrying out the field measurements processing and publication;

(c) consultancy services for development, calibration and testing of simulation models and for training BWDB staff in their use; and

(d) in Madhumati-Nabaganga Sub-project for the procurement of deep tubewell equipment.

A. Gumti Phase I: Hydrological and Morphological Study

2. Measurements on the Cumti river, Bari Nadi, Sonai Nadi, Solda Nadi, Bijni and Titas would be undertaken to meet the requirements of mathematical modelling of the Cumti basin. Some measurements would continue to meet BWDB's future needs and would become part of their normal data gathering effort:

(a) bed sampling and determination of grain-size distribution;

(b) water sampling and determination of sediment concentration and grain-size distribution (these samples should be taken regularly, especially during the flood season);

tc) suspended load transport measurements;

(d) bed load transport measurements;

(e) soundings and cross-sections at regular intervals; -37-

Annex 2 Page 2

(f) survey and inventory of sugarcane crops, tree crops, embankments and structures in the Gumti flood plain which affect the hydraulic roughness;

(g) water surface slope measurements during discharge measurements;

(h) stage-discharge measurements at suitable locations, in particular during floods; and

(i) overland flow and related topography.

3. The study would include the following:

(a) the field measurements described in para 2;

Cb) data control, processing and reporting;

(c) development and calibration of a mathematical model of the Gumti and Titas Rivers and the Buri Nadi (including Salda Nadi); and

(d) the numerical simulation of the hydraulic and morphological response of the Gumti River to implementation of flood protection and drainage schemes. This is needed for this project as well as for the feasibility study of the Cumti Phase II Project.

4. Work involved in field measurements would comprise:

(a) the installation of 2 new auto recorders at Salda/Bijni River and Sonai Nadi;

(b) the installation of 11 new staff gauges, 2 at Cumti River, 2 at Buri Nadi, 2 at Titas River, 4 at the auto recorder sites and 1 at existing auto recorder site at Cumti River (Comilla);

(d) hydrographic surveys at about 50 locations along the Gumti River, Buri Nadi, Sonai tNadi,Salda Nadi and Bijni River. The surveys would be conducted at intervals of 3 km along the rivers;

(e) weekly discharge measurements at 12 locations along the rivers;

(f) sediment measurements taken twice a month during the period May to October at 4 locations along Gumti River, 2 locations along the Buri Nadi and 2 locations along the Salda Nadi; -38-

Annex 2 Page 3

(g) bottom sampling once a year at about 25 locations along Gumti Titas, Buri, Salda, Bijni and Sonai Nadi; and

(h) computation of discharge data, laboratory anaLysis of sediment, plotting and printing of hydrographic data and compilation of all the data and analysis in book form.

B. Madhumati/Nabaganga

5. Hydrological Study: The study provides for:

(a) upgrading, locating and scheduling installation of the hydrological recording network throughout the Gorai-Madhumati River: 5 gauging stations between Kamarkhali and Patgati;

'b) triangulation and cross-section survey at 5 km intervals along the river including computation and checking;

Cc) measuring discharges and water surface slopes at weekly intervals;

Cd) water level observations at hourly intervals;

(e) preparation of plans, computation of discharge measurements by computer; processing, checking and plotting of water level data; and

Cf)printing of hydrographic data and compilation of data and analysis in book form.

6. Groundwater Study: A regional groundwater model being prepared by a consultant under the South West Rural Development Project would outline the permissible tubewell development based on overall regional conditions. In this regional model the Madhumati-Nabaganga subproject area will be simulated by a few nodes in the grid network. With prevailing local conditions, like lateral attractions from streams, upcoming and/or lateral intrusion of saline groundwater could not be considered accurately in such a regionaL model. A detailed groundwater model using a relatively dense grid network would be needed to determine the optimal tubewell configura- tion in the project area. -39-

Annex 2 Page 4

7. The study would provide for:

(a) mapping of existing tubewells, observation wells and piezometers on topographical maps;

(b) preparation of groundwater contour maps of the phreatic groundwater as well as of the potentiometric surface of the main aquifer. For preparation of the maps, 5 additional double piezometers are needed (one shallow piezometer in the upper clay layer and one deep piezometer in the main aquifer). One of the piezometers should be installed close to the Gorai River, in order to study the lateral inflow or outflow along the periphery and the possible leakage between the aquifer and the river;

Cc) preparation of depth to water table maps;

(d) preparaticn of groundwater fluctuation maps;

(e) preparation of transmissivity maps Gf the main aquifer. For this study two additional pumping tests (6 days) with 6 to 9 observation wells each would be carried out. The test sites would preferably be selected on the basis of a geo-electrical field survey. The test wells would be deveLoped for irrigation purposes after the tests. Each test is to be repeated 2-3 times;

(f) preparation of hydraulic head differences maps between the upper clay layer and the main aquifer;

(g) preparation of hydraulic resistance map of the upper confining layer;

(h) contour maps of the main aquifer, giving depth and thickness and the impervious base of the aquifer; and

Ci)preparation of groundwater quality maps.

C. Naogaon Polder 1: Hydro-MorphologicalStudy

8. During the implementation phase a mathematical model of the Atrai Rier system wouLd be developed, capable of simulating the hydraulic and morphological processes and its response to river engineering projects. As the ultimate hydrological conditions in the project area depend to a great extent on the future downstream developments, this model should cover the whole of the Atrai River system, between Mohadebpur and its outfall in the Hurasagar (Karatoya) River. The results of this study are -40-

Annex 2 Page 5

of prime importancefor the detaileddesign of the project,but also for the planningof other drainageand flood controlprojects in the Basin. It would in particularprovide informationon:

Ca) future floodand tail water levels;

(b) embankmentdesign and flood plain management;

Cc) morphologicalchanges of the main river channels;

(d) sedimentationof structures;

Ce) navigabilityof the river; and

(f) impacton groundwatertable and rechargepotential.

9. The field measurementslisted below would requiremainly the upgradingand improvementof the existinggauge network:

Ca) weekly dischargemeasurements at 18 existingand 2 new stations along the Atrai-Gur-Camani,Jamuna, Nagor, Bhadai,Baranai- Fakirniand Baral-NandakayaRivers;

Cb) daily water level observationsat 22 existingand 2 new stations (5 times daily);

iC) water surfaceslope measurementsduring dischargemeasurements; id) sedimentmeasurements at 6 locationsat regularintervals (6-8 during the monsoon periodand 2-4 during the dry season),comprising suspendedload transportand bed load transportmeasurements and water sampling;

(e) bottom samplingonce a year at approximate6-8 km intervals;

(f) soundingsand cross-sectionsat 3 km intervals,overland flow measurementand related topography;and

(g) surveyof hydraulicconditions in the flood plain.

10. The study would includethe folLowing:

(a) field measurementsdescribed in para 9;

(b) data collection,analysis, printing and reporting; -41-

Annex 2 Page 6

(d) numerical simulation of the hydraulic and morphological response to implementation of river engineering schemes in the Atrai Basin; and

(e) indicate remedial measures against possible adverse effects of basin-wide river development.

11. Upgrading of the existing hydrological network would include:

(a) the instalLation of 2 new water Level and discharge stations along Bhadai and Baranai Rivers;

(b) the installation of 5 auto-recorders at existing stations (Atrai-Gur-Gamani,and Baranai Rivers); and

Cc) replacement of 12 shifting type water level gauges by permanent gauges (fixed against structures or bhula poles).

D. Role of BWDB and Consultants in iydro-MorphoLogical Studies

12. Extensive flood protection works would result in a reduction of the storage of floodwaves, which in turn would cause an increase of peak discharges. Moreover, the flood levels tend to become higher because of the confinement of the flow and increase of backwater levels. The increase of peak levels due to construction of flood protection works in one area of the river basin would result in a higher risk of flooding for another area. The confinement of the flow to the floodway in combination with increased peak discharges would cause increase of flow velocity and subsequently an increase of the sediment transport capacity of the flow; erosion would likely be the result, while sedimentation would occur at other locations. Long term effects would include channel degradation, reduction of the slope of the river bed, local scour, and downstream deposition of sediments, possible change in river geometry and bank instability. One of the important effect on the long term could be lowering of the riverbed. This would have the advantage that, in time, flood stages would be reduced. Basin wide drainage characteristics would be affected as the base level of the river and the groundwater table are lowered; low water levels would also be lowered, and hence water intake structures may loose their function, and foundations of structures as bridges and harbor quaiwalls would be affected. The hydraulic and morphological changes - both short term as well as long term - that are associated with men induced changes in the river on a basin wide scale should be analyzed and their impact assessed. -42-

Annex 2 Page 7

13. The consultants would develop simulation models that enable a proper quantitative assessment of the hydraulic and morphoLogical changes in the river basin associated with a variety of alternative development strategies. These models shall include a hydrodynamic model and a morphological model. The models shall be general in character allowing application to other river basins in Bangladesh. A data base management system for storage and retrieval of all pertinent hydrological, hydraulic and morphological data of the river and its environment shall be developed and st.allserve as a basis for data handling for models. The accuracy of the models shall warrant a sound evaluation of river response to flood protection works without obscuring the significant and fundamental differences. In view of the relatively slow morphological processes and hereto related morphological time scale, the morphological model shall be capable of indicating not only the final condition of the river but also the intermediate conditions prevailing before reaching this final equi- librium state. Since MPO requires this type of simulation model in its planning work, BWDB and its consultants would work in close cooperation with MPO and would exchange information and available knowledge, including tested simulation models and would avoid duplication of efforts, unless such duplications are made necessary in order to implement the project in a timely manner.

14. Data Collection and System Analysis. The consultants shall prepare a basic qualitative description of the physical processes that govern the response to changes in the Atrai and Cumti River basin systems. For the purpose of modeling, the Atrai Basin is defined as the Atrai-Gur-Gumani River system, from about 30 km upstream of Mohadebpur to the confluence with the Karatoya River, including all relevant tributaries and branch channels. The Cumti Basin is limited to the Gumti River between the Indian border and its outfall point in the Meghna River, including the Titas River, the Bijni, the Buri Nadi and its tributaries Solda Nadi and Sonai Nadi. Topographical, hydrological, climatological, hydraulic and fluvial morphoLogical data as well as relevant data on land use and infrastructure shall be collected from existing documents to the extent necessary and practical for evaluation of the environmental impact of alternative development strategies on the entire river basins. The consultant shall review and analyze the collected data, and if deemed necessary, shall specify additional data to be collected, such as discharge measurements, bed material grain size distribution and additional topographical surveys of river levees, flood embankments or other relevant features that are of significance in hydrodynamic modelling. The Bangladesh Water Development Board will make available to the consultants, free of charge, all available data, such as reports (including comments thereon), maps, aerial photographs, climatological and hydrological charts, river channel data, sediment transport data, or any other data that is considered to be essential for the study. In addition, the BWDB will carry out additional data collection as required by the consultant. -43-

Annex 2 Page 8

15. Modellingof the River Systems. The consultantshall initially preparea basic hydrodynamicmodeL of the specifiedACrai and Gumti River basins,based on the presentlyavailable data on topography,infrastructure, hydrology,channel geometryand hydraulics. All pertinentand significantfeatures of the river basins shall be includedin the schematizationfor subsequentmodeling. The model shall be calibratedfor the existing situationusing the availabledata. Calibrationand sub- sequentverification shall continueuntil the resultsof the model are of the requiredaccuracy that warrantsits useful applicationin performing impactanalysis. For the purposeof impactanalysis, a numberof river basin developmentscenarios will be specifiedby the consultantin close consultationwith BWDB and other relevantagencies such as the Ministryof Irrigation (tMPO)and Ministry of Port, Shipping and Inland Water Tran- sport.

16. Transferof the Model and Training. The BangladeshWater Develop- ment Board will make available staff selected from the Hydrology Direc- torate as weLl as from the Directorate of Planning to cooperate with the team of consultants. During the implementation and development of the model, the consultants shall share their knowledge and experience with this staff, and the subsequent modeling study of the Atrai River basin shall be a joint effort of the consultant and BWDB staff. ConsuLtant shall present recommendations regarding possible additional training for BWDB staff; the type and field of training required shall be inditated. The consuLtant shall transfer the model and the associated software to the Bangladesh Water Development Board.

17. Duration of Studies. The estimated duration of the study would be 18 months. This would require about 20 man-months of internationally recruited speciaLists for (a) deveLopment and calibration of the models, (b) recommendations for application of the model to specific development scenarios, and (c) the preparation of TORs for further work if deemed necessary.

18. Reporting. The consultant shall submit the following reports to the Bangladesh Water Development Board:

- quarterly progress reports;

- interim report, to be submitted after six months;

- users manual of the modeLs, to be submitted upon completion of the first phase of the studies (18 months);

- draft finaL report to be submitted after completion of the second phase of the studies; -44-

Annex 2 Page 9

one month after receptionof the draft final report,the BangladeshWater Developmentwill give its comments;and

- final report,to be submittedone month after receptionof the commentsof the BangladeshWater DevelopmentBoard.

E. Role of BWDB and Consultantsin GroundwaterStudy

19. The MadhumatiNabaganga Project area is locatedin the southwest region of Bangladeshin the Kaguraand Narail Districts. It is situated betweenthe MadhumatiRiver and the NabagangaRiver with the Kamarkhali-MaguraRoad as the northernborder and the Halifaxcut as the southernborder of the projectarea. The projectarea is coveredwith a semi-perviousclay/silt layer. This upper clay/siltlayers increasein thicknessfrom the KadhumatiRiver in the east towardsthe NabagangaRiver in the west. The upper clay/siltlayer is underlainby good permeable layersof sand and gravel. Regionalgroundwater balance studies (UNDP 1981 and Howard Humphrey1984) have indicatedthat these sand layers (aquifer)offer good prospectsfor increaseof groundwaterabstraction. These regionalwater balancestudies are, however,not sufficiently detailedto enable a reliabLeestimate of the availableamount of groundwaterin specificsub-areas. A hydrologicalstudy is, therefore, providedfor with the followingobjectives:

- to determinethe reliableyield from the potentialaquifers under the projectarea.

- to indicatethe possiblenumber of tubewellsand their distribution over the projectarea.

The study is estimatedto be completedwithin 18 months. It would require about 5 man-monthsof internationallyrecruited specialists.

2C. For the purposeof the study,the consultantshall reviewall data and reportswhich will be made availableby BWDB and the Ministryof Irrigation(MPO). They will furtheradvise and assist in the following field surveys:

(a) mappingof existingdug wells, shallowand deep tubewellsand observation wells; (b) indicate,based on the hydro-geologicaldata obtained,the locations where extra piezometersshould be installedto complete the data base needed for a reliableestimate of the groundwateryield. A total number of five extra double piezometers,shallow and deep, can be used; -45- Annex 2 Page 10

(c) execute a geophysical survey to locate salt/fresh water interface in the south and salt groundwater occurrence in the project area and the thickness of the upper clay layer over the whole projecc area;

(d) indicate the locations for two pumping tests, prepare drilling contract documents for test boreholes and piezometers boreholes, invitation to tender and award of contract;

(e) supervise drilling, for test boreholes and piezometers borehole, installation of water level recorders and flow recorders;

(f) supervise pumping tests and record all data;

(g) conduct water level measurements in selected boreholes, dugwells, etc. over the whole project area; and

(h) analyze groundwater samples from selected boreholes over the whole project area with special regard to the use for irrigation purposes.

21. The hydro-geological data obtained would be processed with special reference to transmissivities, storage, leakage factors and all other relevant characteristics of the individual borehoLes. Further the sub-surface flow from or to the adjacent aquifer shall be assessed. The consultants shall assess the effect of groundwater abstraction on the surface water flows in the Madhumati and Nabaganga Rivers and prepare the following maps:

(a) contour maps of phreatic groundwater and piezometric surface of the main aquifer;

(b) groundwater fluctuation;

(d) hydraulic resistance of the upper semipervious Layer;

(e) contour maps of main aquifer (depth and thickness of main aquifer and depth of the impervious base of the main aquifer); and

(f) groundwater quality.

22. The consultant shall prepare and calibrate a mathematical groundwater model, capable of simulating the groundwater movements in the -46-

Annex 2 Page 11

projectarea for specificdevelopment scenarios. In particular,the consultantshall determinethe safe yield from the main aquiferfor irrigationpurposes, minimizing the effect of increasedgroundwater abstractionon surfacewater flows and penetrationof saline/sweetwater interfacein the south. The consultantshall on basis of the model study determinethe number and capacityof deep tubewellsin the projectarea and their distributionover the whole area.

23. The BangladeshWater DevelopmentBoard will make available staff selectedfrom the GroundwaterCircle as well as from the Directorateof Planning,to cooperatewith the team of the consultant. During the implementationand developmentof the model, the consuLtantsshall share their knowledgeand experiencewith BWDB staff and MPO.

24. The consultantshall submitthe followingreports to the BangladeshWater DevelopmentBoard.

- quarterly progress reports;

- interimreport after six months, includingthe resultsof the data review,results of geophysicalsurvey and proposalfor silting test wells and piezometersbefore startingwith preparationof tenderdocuments for drilling;

- specificationsand tenderdocuments for drilling;

- draft final report,one month after receptionof the draft final report,the BangladeshWater DevelopmentBoard will give its comments;and

- final reportto be submittedone month after receiptof comments from BWDB.

F. Aerial Photography

25. Aerial Photography. The three subprojectareas and the Cumti Phase II Projectarea will be coveredby aeriaL photography. The aerial photographywill permit (i) checkingthe rivers evolution;(ii) determining major drainagechannels patterns; and (iii) assessingthe present land use; and (iv) preparationof contourmaps and (v) selectionof areas suitablefor irrigationdevelopment in Cumti Phase II. Aerial photography shouldbe taken with sterescopicoverlap and, most importantly,during the proper season,possibly January-February when the sky is clear, he soil dry and most of the paddy is harvested. Only direct photoprintswill be requiredalthough an uncorrectedphotomap may aLso be useful. -47-

Annex 2 Page 12

26. Contour Mapping. The detailed design for irrigation development requires the preparation of contour maps at scale 1/5,000, for which aerial photographs at a scale of about 1/8,000 or larger are needed. The preparation of contour maps necessitates an accurate ground control work and the processing of the photographs on stereophotogrammetricmachines. All prints should be processed to compensate for contrast across the photograph through automatic dodging machine. The ground control work should be carried out immediately after having the aerial photoprints and indeed during the dry season.

27. Contract for Aerophoto and Sterophotogrammetric Work. The contract would include two phases: (a) the taking of aerial photographs at scale 1/30,000 over about 250,000 ha total and at scale 1/8000 over about 115,000 ha to be irrigated under the Cunti Phase I sub-project and Gumti Phase II project; and (b) the ground control works, the stereophotogrammaticprocessing and the preparation of maps. The timing of this contract should be very strict in relation with the season and with the requirement of project preparation for the Gumti Phase II project. The taking and processing of aerial photographs, the ground control work and the stereophotogrammetricprocessing do not accept second rate equipment or less than perfect methodology. The tender process should thus include careful preselection of ;>.d prospective international contractors.

C. Agricultural and Fisheries Development Programs

28. The preparation of programs for agricultural and fisheries development would require:

(a) a determination of the likely sustainable potential in the area in term of crop, fish and livestock production;

(b) identification of the prerequisites for realizing that sustainable potential: technological practices, institutional needs (marketing, technology development, technology transfer, input supply and services), infrastructure (roads, irrigation, aquaculture), policy measures (eliminating hinderances to the adoption of the optimal mix of crops, to integration of crop/fisheries/livestock activities, and to the promotion of agricultural practices which are compatible with the social and economic objectives selected for each area); and

(c) preparation of an operational time table for bringing about the changes necessary for achieving the production potential in each area. Proposed steps would have to be consistent with (i) the need to protect beneficiaries against the risk inherent in unproven innovations or those perceived to be associated with fast -48- Annex 2 Page 13

changes, and (ii) the requirement that complementary changes or actions would have to be carefully coordinated.

29. The programs for agricultural and fisheries development and/or phases thereof suggested for immediate implementation would be subjected to the type of evaluation normally undertaken in the context of a feasibility study. This would include:

(a) review and analysis of available information on agriculture and fisheries in the area, incLuding information on on-going development programs;

(b) define existing cropping practices, extent of use of known improved technological practices and reasons for lack of use, if that is the case;

Cd) review the existing institutional capability in the area and identify and justify any required improvements;

(e) assess the area's needs as perceived by loca; veople and their representatives (local government);

Cf) prepare cost estimates for proposed development programs;

kg) provide an economic and financial analysis of proposed programs along with an assessment of the likely risks;

(h) prepare an impLementation plan, including annual work programs; and

Ci) prepare proposals for managing the planned development programs.

30. The preparation of fisheries development programs would require an assessment of the production potential of natural fisheries and alternative for developing aquaculture. Investigations would need to be undertaken in order to determine:

(a) Species composition of fish and prawn inside the floodplains in each project area, their relative importance;

(b) water current velocity limitations for fish and prawn to swim through the regulators and other structures, when opened and determination of other requirements for fish migration; and -49-

Annex 2 Page 14

31. An alternativefor compensatingfor loss of fish from natural fisherieswould be to provide supportto aquaculturein ponds and other permanentwaters within each sub-projectarea. To achievethis, inves- tigationsare necessaryon:

(a) number of ponds, their total water area and extent of culturable area;

(b) determinationof the total number of hatchlingsand fingerlings of fish needed to stock annuallyall availableculturable waters;

(c) determinationof size, capacityand structureof fish hatcheries and rearingstations with recommendationon suitablesites to locate these in each subprojectarea; and

{d) identificationof fish culturepotential and desired enhancement programs.

32. The studieswould also look into possibilitiesof reducingpoten- tial Losses from natural fisheriesin the processof providingflood controland drainagefacilities. Such Loss of fish productioncan be partiallyreduced, if the regulatorsand sluicegates are so designedand operatedas to ensure smooth entry of fish and fish fry from rivers into the availablewaters within each sub-projectarea by opening them for pre-determinedperiods of time during fish breedingseason (i.e. between May and early August). Again, during the recessionof monsoon waters, the regulatorsand structuresmay be opened,again for predeterminedshort periodsof time, to allow exits of fish seekingentry into the rivers and khals outsideeach sub-projectarea.

H. FeasibilityStudy for Cumti Phase II Project

33. The area proposedfor study is prone to floodingfrom Gumti, Meghna,Titas, Buri Nadi and Salda Nadi. Along with the Gumti Phase I, this projectwould providean opportunityto addressthe floodingproblem in the Guwti basin in a comprehensivemanner. The area comprisesabout 93,000ha bound to the north and west by Meghna and Titas Rivers to the south by the Gumti River, to the west by the westernbranch of the Titas River and to the east by the footslopesof the TripuraHills. There is scope for winter (boro) irrigationthrough pumping from the Meghna. Water availabilityin the Meghna is not a constraintfor the moment, and is not likely to become one in the foreseablefuture. Aerial photographyand the simulationmodel for the Gumti-Titasbasin are requiredfor this study, -50-

Annex 2 Page 15

and should, therefore, be given priority when scheduling project implementation.

34. The primary objectives of the Gumti Phase II Subproject are:

(a) reduction in crop losses due to flooding and impeded drainage;

(b) increase in the area of transplanted rice cultivation in the aman season as a result of reduced inundation and improved water management;

(c) increase in the area of boro and rabi cultivation as a result of improved irrigation facilities and the reduction of the area under broadcast deep water rice;

(d) expansion of the area under improved rice (and wheat) varieties following the control of floods and improved water management; and

(e) improvement of agricultural, institutional and physical infrastructure necessary to materialize the above objectives.

35. The studies shall include:

(a) review all pertinent available data and identify data requiring collection or updating;

(b) undertake the necessary topographic surveys, hydrological measurements, agro-economic and socio-economic surveys;

Cc) assess the extent of benefitted area, the potential impact of the proposed project works on the adjacent areas and the region as a whole and on existing economic activities (fisheries, etc.), possible negative effects in the project area and possible remedial measures;

(d) establish design criteria and planning concepts and preparation of project lay-outs, engineering designs and feasibility level drawings of relevant project components. In this respect due consideration shall be given to:

- the possibility of pump drainage in those areas where gravity drainage is technically and/or economically not feasible;

- the possibility to improve irrigation facilities through pumping water from the Meghna and/or Titas Rivers and to convey it through an improved Khal system; -51-

Annex 2 Page 16

- the possibilityof combiningirrigation and drainage pump stations;

- the design height of the embankmentsand the associatedrisk of failure;

- the specialmaintenance requirements of high embankmentsand the increaseddamage in case of failure (in particularin those areas where embankmentshave to be significantlyraised as a result of river confinementand where the polder inundation levelswill be considerablylowered through pumping);

- the potentialfor groundwaterdevelopment and the current abstractionsin the projectarea;

- assess the need for access and serviceroads, necessary to construct,maintain and operate the embankments,structures and other projectfacilities.

(e) preparationof cost estimatesof projectworks on the basis of recent contractrates, includingannual expenditureschedules in both local and foreignexchange currencies;

(f) preparationof operationand maintenanceschedules, including staff, equipmentand budget requirements;

(g) preparationof implementationschedules, showing project components in quantitativeand monetary terms,equipment and staff requirementsand procurementschedules, as well as specifications for engineeringand other surveys requiredfor detailed design and implementation;

(h) elaborateon the need and implicationsof improvedwater management and proposean organizationalstructure required to introduce a phased project implementation,institutional infrastructure (e.g. extension,credit, marketing, etc) and farmersorganization; and

(i) assessmentof project benefitsfor relevantproject alternatives and the evaluationof project economics,including farm budgets, internalrates of return and sensitivityanalysis.

36. Preparationsfor the constructionof earthworks(and related structureswhere required)shall be immediatelymade followingthe feasibilitystudy and the selectionof the optimalplan. This shall include: -52-

Annex 2 Page 17

(a) selection of earthworks to be constructed during the first year, in compliance with the proposed overall implementation schedule;

(b) detailed engineering surveys, including:

- longitudinal profiles;

- cross-sections, interval between 30 and 60 meter;

- plane table or grid survey of structure sites at scale 1:200;

(d) preparation of bills of quantities and cost estimates; and

(e) preparation of tender documents for construction.

37. The field surveys required for the feasibility study would include:

(a) Topographic Survey

1. Longitudinal profiles of river banks:

- Buri Nadi 2 x 46 km - Salda Nadi 2 x 18 km - Chungur Nadi 2 x 22 km - Bijni Nadi 2 x 23 km - Titas upper 2 x 37 km - Neghna 25 km - Titas lower 38 km - Howrah 2 x 10 km - Others 2 x 10 km Total 395 km

2. Longitudinal profile of roads/railway:

- road Companyganj-Brahmanbaria 30 km - road/railway Comailla-Akhaura 46 km - road Companyganj-Nabinagar 28 km - others 50 km Total 154 km

3. Cross-sections of rivers (bank to bank, extended up to 300 m in the flood plain) at 3 km intervals: -53-

Annex 2 Page 18

- Buri Nadi 16 - Salda Nadi 7 - Chungur Nadi 8 - Bijni Nadi 8 - Upper Titas 12 - Howrah 4 - others 4

4. Cross-section roads/railways at 3 km intervals:

- Companyganj-Brahmanbaria 11 - Comilla-Akhaura 16 - Companyganj-Nabinagar 10 - others 15

5. Cross-section in main drains/khalsat 5 km intervals = 40

Total number of cross-section = 151

(b) Hydrological Observations

1. Additional water level observations (daily)

- Kuti (Buri/Salda) - Bangora (Buri/Oder khal) - Bayek Rly. Bridge (Salda/Bijni) - Brahmanpara (Chungur) - NemfabadRly. Bridge (Sonai) - Bathamata(Titas upper) - ramkrishnapur (Titas lower)

2. Additional discharge measurements (2-3 times/week)

- Kuti (Buri Branch/Salda Branch) - Bayek Rly. Bridge 1/ (Salda Branch/Bijni Branch) - Nemfabad Rly. Bridge 1/ (Soni) 3. Overland gauges (for approx. location see map)

- 5 no's.

4. Continued operation of existing hydrometric stations:

- No. 109 - No. 110 - No. 111 - No. 113 - No. 114 -54-

Annex 2 Page 19

- No. 115 - No. 296 - No. 297 - No. 298 - No. 123 - No. 3 + 3 A (c) Agro-economicSurvey CoveringCrops, Livestock and Fisheries

(d) Socio-economicSurvey

(e) Navigation

(f) Fisheries I. On-Farm DemonstrationUnits

38. Ten water managementdemonstracion units each coveringan area servedby a low lift pump (10-20ha) would be organizedon farmers' land followingcompletion of major civil works. The demonstrationswould follow the principlesunder the existingIrrigation Management Program (IMP). The purposewould be to train farmers in the efficientuse of water (irrigationand drainage)under varyingsoil conditionsand to meet the requirementsof variouscrops. This componentwouLd be coordinatedby BWDB staff in close cooperationwith agenciesof the Ministryof Agricul- ture in the area and developmentstaff of of the local Government.

J. Study of BWDB's InstitutionalCapability

39. The reviewwould build on past studiesof BWDB. It would assess the consistencyof their findings,their relevanceand the adequacyof their coverageof the issues involved. It would fill any gaps in information and analysis. It would assess the qualityand scopeof on-going institutionbuilding activities as an aggregateprogram within BUDB. As a result,the reviewwouLd providea set of recommendationsalong with a timetableand proceduresfor implementingthem.

40. The review would start with a diagnosticanalysis of BWDB as a public developmentinstitution, with specificemphasis on: BWDB's obliga- tions and responsibilitiesto the country,its organizationalstructure and modalityof administrationand management;the nature of its business; its legal framework;its relationto other developmentagencies; its sourcesof funding;the extent of its relianceon contracting;its con- tractingprocedures; internal flow of information;channels of communica- tion and decisiontaking. BWDB's expectedand actual role in project -55-

Annex 2 Page 20

identification, feasibility studies, project design, project implementation, project operation and maintenance; administrative and management practices in BWDB's headquarters and field offices.

41. On the basis of information acquired in the diagnostic analysis, an evaluation would be made of BWDB's current capacity to effectively assume its responsibilities under its current organization, manpower strength, internal management practices, and the present nature of its work relations with agencies performing services complementary to its own or supplying it with needed services.

42. As a result of this evaluation, recommendations would be made for desirable improvements along with a timetable and procedures for implementing such recommendations with minimum impact on other agencies and national administrative arrargements and practices. The "package" of recommendations would provide a basis for improving BWDB's capability in project preparation, project design, programing construction works, construction management, quality control and operation and maintenance. In particular, such "package" would:

Ci) identify tasks for which BWDB should rely on its own implementation capability, tasks for which it could rely partially or totally on contractors and consultancy services, and tasks which would be best transferred (in an orderly manner) to other agencies at the central or local leveLs, or transferred from other agencies to BWDS;

(ii) compare present staff to staffing requirements implied by the tasks selected for implementation by BWDB, define necessary changes, and propose a program (training and short term interim measures) to overcome any existing qualitative shortcomings;

(iii) define major functional job categories for professional staff (headquarters and field staff) to serve as a basis for specifying manpower requirements, a manpower development plan, and for allocating responsibilities and promoting the concept of accountability;

(iv) prepare a plan for potential redeployment of staff within BWDS or their reassignment to other agencies where a need for their skills is created elsewhere as a result of real- location of responsibilities between BWDB and other agencies; -56-

Annex 2 Page 21

(v) assess existingtraining activities, programs and facilities,both under BWDB's managementand other institutions of relevanceto water developmentand proposeways for BWDB to strengthenits staff capabilityusing local trainingfacilities as well as possibleopportunities overseas;

(vi) preparea program for upgradingthe internalplanning systemwith particularemphasis on proceduresfor integrat- ing BWDB'swork in that of other developmentagencies servingthe agriculturalsector;

(vii) proposeguidelines for selection,coordination and control of contractorsand consultantsduring project implementation; and

(viii) provideguidelines for improvingbudgetary and accounting practicesand financialmanagement.

43. The final productwould be an action plan acceptableto GOB and IDA which: {i) defines the role of BWDB in relationto nationalneeds which, given the countryconditions and goals, could not be met under alternativeinstitutional arrangements, (ii) providesproposals, imple- mentableunder country conditions,for improvingBWDB's capability to effectivelyplay that role, (iii) providesa realistictimetable for introducingspecific measures aimed at strengtheningBWDB, or redefining its responsibilities.Administrative and financialarrangements for implementingthose recommendationswould be agreed betweenGOB and IDA followingdiscussion of the review findings.

44. The reviewwould be undertakenby a workinggroup consistingof two seniorBWDB engineersofficialLy assigned to this review and two organizationand managementspeciaLists. IDA would assist in reviewing terms of reference,reviewing interim and final reportsand providing supportas requiredand feasibleduring the review. -57-

Annex 3 Page 1

BANCLADESH

THIRD FLOODCONTROL AND DRAINAGEPROJECT

TechnicaL Assistanceand Training

1. BWDB was establishedin 1972 as a semi-autonomous agency. It is managed by a Chairmanand five Board Membersrespectively responsible for planning,implementation, operationand maintenance,finance, and 4dministration.BWDB's mandate is to deveLop water resourcesand improve water flow for purposesof irrigation,flood and erosion control, town protection,and river trainingthroughout Bangladesh. BWDBhas limited capabilitiesfor planning,design, and operationand maintenance. This has been the result of civil service regulationswhich preventedBWDB from attraceing,motivating and, thus, retainingquality pLanning and design staff. This projectprovides for a temporarysolution to this constraint for the specificpurpose of executingproject works, while simultaneously, it providesfor establishinga forum to search for a more permanentsolu- t ion.

2. In order to promotetimely and effectiveimplementation of the project,provision is made for establishinga ProjectManagement Unit (PMU) under the Chief EngineerPlanning. PMU, assisted by consultants, would be responsiblefor: (i) assistingfield Divisionswith planning project implementation,(ii) undertakingthe engineeringsurveys, foundation investigation,design, (iii) assistingwith the processingof tender documents,bids evaluationand the award of contractsfor the construction of projectfacilities, and procurement(iv) monitoringprogress in the constructionprogram on behalfof BWDB's management,and (v) quality control. The Directorateof PlanningSchemes I (DPS I) would be responsible for organizingand monitoringthe preparationof the. agricultureand fisheriesdevelopment plans and for preparationof a feasibilitystudy for the Gumti Phase II project. PHU and DPS I would be assisted by consultants. In recognitionof the extra responsibilities,PMU and DPS I staff would be expected to assume under the project,they would be given a field allowanceat a rate commensuratewith that paid to local consultantsfor a maximumof ten days per month. This would encouragedirect and frequent contactbetween headquartersand field staff and would ensure that the works and studiesbeing implementedreflect local realitiesand needs. PMU and DPS I staffwould also have an opportunityto participatein the trainingprogram providedfor under the project.

3. PMU would consistof a ProjectManager, a seniordesign engineer as a Deputy ProjectManager, three design engineers,a planning engineer -58-

Annex 3 Page 2

and four junior planningand design engineers. This team would be supported by three surveyors,two draftsmenand eleven supportstaff (accountants, secretaries,clerks and drivers). PHU would also provide the administrativeset up for trainingabout 18 BIDB staff in the fieldsof engineeringdesign, constructionmonitoring, organization and management (task identification,work loadingand estimating,critical path analysis, budgeting,proposal writing, interdisciplinary cooperation, quality and cost control)and planningproject implementation(organizing engineering surveysand investigati'ns,organizing procurement, selecting among alternative engineeringdesigns, evaluating proposals from consultantsand contractors),and designof water developmentprojects. Tr-iningwould be in the form of on-the-jobtraining in the contextof this project,planned short term trainingabroad, workshops and seminars.

4. Improvedwork conditionsand trainingprovided would make it easier for BWD8 to retain qualitydesign and constructionmonitoring. It is recognized,however, tiat this 'e a short term soLutionto the issues impedingstaff motivationin BWDB. Therefore,as an initialstep towards identifyinga longerterm solution,the projectprovides for establishing an inter-agencystudy group to: ti) identifyand providea rankingfor the reasonsunderlying the lack of staff motivationin the fieldsof planning, designand constructionmonitoring, (ii) reviewcases (if any) in Bangladeshwhere such limitationsexisted and were resolved,and (iii) reviewother countries'experience, particularly the experiencewith establisingautonomous planning and design units in such countriesas Sri Lanka,Korea and India,among others. The study group would develop proposalsamenable to implementationwith a minimumof disturbanceto the existinginstitutional arrangements. Such proposalswould be reviewedby Governmentand IDA. The financialand administrativearrangements for their implementationwould be agreed at that time.

5. For purposesof projectimplementation, BWDB would be assisted by a local consultingfirm supportedby three expatriateexperienced engineers,preferably seconded to the local firm by an internationalfirm of consultantswith broad experiencein the fieldsof designand construction monitoring. The followingspecialists of the local consu.tingfirm would be requiredfor an estimatedtotal periodof about 408 man-monthsof professionalstaff supportedby three draftsmen,six surveyorsand nine technicalassistants over a period of six years. -59-

Annex 3 Page 3

(i) one senior irrigationand drainage engineer(team leader) 60 man-months

(ii) three seniordesign engineers 108 man-months

(iii) one programmingand construction monitoringspecialist 60 man-months

(iv) three seniorconstruction engineers : 180 man-months

408 man-months

This manpowerinput would be complementedby 90 man-monthsof expatriate specialistservice over a periodof 5 years:

(i) one senior irrigation,flood controland drainageengineer (deputyteam leader) 60 man-months

(ii) one seniordesign engineer 15 man-months

iii) one seniormechanical engineer 15 man-months

90 man-months

6. In addition the Korean Covernment indicated its intention to provide about 78 man-months of specialists services over a period of 4 years:

si) one senior drainage and flood control engineer 48 man-months

(ii) one senior construction engineer (4 seasons X 6 months) 24 man-months

72 man-months

The Korean specialists wouLd be attached ;o PMU as advisors. They would be responsible for ensuring that the four junior engineers in PMU participatein projectimplementation and receiveon-the-job training as required. They would developa programof on-the-jobtraining for BWDB staff and oversee its implementation.In cooperationwith PMU staff, they would supervisethe work of local consultantsand providethem vith the necessarytechnical support for developingappropriate procedures and for preparingmanuals for constructionmonitoring and for operationand maintenanceof projectfacilities, they would also monitorthe qualityof projectworks on behalfof PMU. The main task of the Korean technical assistancewould be to preparePHU to assume primaryresponsibility for -60-

Annex 3 Page 4

implementingflood controland drainageprojects following the present one.

7. The local consultingfirm would keep PMU informedon progress in projectimplementation, incLuding any problemswhich may cause delay and alternativeways to address them. In particular,they would submit:

(i) an inceptionreport, two months followingthe project starting date. This reportwould includea detailedwork plan (nature and sequenceof operationsand the partiesresponsible for their implementation),an assessmentof the resourcesrequired and recommendationsfor mobilizingsuch resources,specifications for field surveysand specialstudies needed (hydrological,morphological, modelling, etc), an evaluationof the pre-constructionactivities completed and any need for complementaryor correctivemeasures, an estimateof civil works that could be undertakenduring the first two construc- tructionseasons, and specifzcinstructions for recordsto be kept in the field and at headquarter.;

(ii) brief monthlyprogress reports on the statusof procurement, progressand qualityof constructionactivities and studies, and major findingsof fieldvisits;

(iii) detailedquarterly reports on progressin physicalimplemen- tationof the project,financial status, training, and operationand maintenanceof completedfaciliti's;

(iv) annual work program for submissionin time for use in the budgetpreparation process;

(v) operationand maintenancemanual for each sub-project

(vi) constructionmonitoring manual for BWDB; and

(vii) projectcompletion report.

8. The local consultingfirm and its expatriatespecialists would be responsible,in cooperationwith PHU staff, for (i) planningproject implementation,(ii) organizingand supervisingthe necessaryengineering surveysand undertakingdesign works, and (iii) monitoringconstruction activities(timing and appropriatenessfor intendedend use).

9. BWDB would providePMU and their consultantswith the following items and serviceswhen required: -63- Ansnex 4

BANGLADESH THIRDFLOOD CONTROL AND DRAINAGE PROJECT Ilementaton Schedule

ak.MOUcU F I Iqg.a 1usa I a . 11M 4* W I I loom 1M42 Sl _Q M S_ 3 d 2 t 1 7 -lR * 9 - -1 _- -SW - - _ 3T E M M L2 1 1 4 *l2132123 . 34 12 131 12 3412 31 L

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7CWi wloagtwZao 1 .baJav(of?uAMAN havs) ?0Jw1lt(mosonmlr) V.,sE,Swiii-2Ofi3 -61-

Annex 3 Page 5

(i) availableinformation of relevanceto the project: statis- tical data, contourmaps, Mouza maps, aerial photograph, feasibilitystudies and other relevantreports, hydrological data, recordsof river stagesand morphologyplans, rainfall data, groundwaterstudies conducted by BADC, MPO, and BWDB;

(ii) standarddesign manuals and type plans for hydraulicand other civil engineeringstructures and buildingsas required;

(iii) professionalstaff as specifiedin para 3;

(iv) transportfacilities, design equipment,and office suppliesif such items are not includedin the consultancyservices contracts; and

(v) office accommodationand housingfor consultantshired under bilateralarrangement. TechnicalAssistance and Trainipn (BaseCosts)

1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 Han- Cost Han- Cost Han- Cost Han- Cost Man- Cost Han- Cost Mth. Tk'O000 th. Tk'000 Mth. Tk'000 Hths Tk'000 Mths Tk'000 Mth. Tk'Q00 Local ConsultingFirm

Local Consultants1/ 60 2400 72 2880 84 3360 84 3360 84 3360 24 960 Foreign Consultants ./ 18 4500 18 4500 18 4500 18 4500 18 4500 -- -- Korean TechnicalAssistance 3/ 6 1200 18 3600 18 3600 18 3600 18 3600

Trainingand StudyTour 3000 3000 3000 3000

Tk 40,000/monthincluding overhead costs, transport, housing, travel, office space,equipment, support services, insuranceand other relatedincidental costs. Theseconsultants will be assistedby threedraftsmen, six surveyorsand nine technicalassistants.

2/ Tk 250,000/monthincluding overhead costs, transport,housing, travel, office space,equipment, support services, insuranceand other relatedincidental costs.

3/ Tk 200,000/monthincluding overhead costs, internationaltravel and insurance.BWDB assumesthe cost of transport,housing, office space, in-countrytravel, equipment, support services, insurance and other related incidentalcosts. These are providedfor under the engineeringand administrationcost category. -64-

Annex5 BANGLADESH

TRIRD FLOODCONTROL ANM DRAINAGE PROJECT

Lud Acauisition Procedur

Aeency Deputy Actions maisUiowr 1. Site identified I I S 2. Proposal Prepared I 1 S 3. Submittedfor JMDD I I I AdministrativeApproval I I * I 4. Approval Received I I S * I I 5. Submitted for District Land I Acq. Comittes Approval 1 S 6. ApprovalReceived ft.. I I I District Land Acq. Committee I S I 7. Submittedto Deputy Comissioner I 1 S I B. Prelisinary Estimate1ade I l by Deputy ComiCsioner I S I | 9. stimateApproved by =DS I | S 1 10. Fund banded to Deputy Comissioner i I S 11. Sec. 3 Notice of Intent to I I I Acquire Issued S I 12. Objection and ear I I

13. Sent to XIN. LA & LI for Approval 1 S 14. Approval Received I S I * ~~ ~I ~ ~~~~~~~~~~II 15. Sec. 6 Notice of Acq. Issued I I 16. Tinal state Had I

17. Omer Notified of Paymnt I S I 1 18. PumdsPlaced for Ower I S I I

19. landoverFormlities I x I I 20. Lan landedover to UDD I S I I 21. Land landed over to Contractor I I S I Annex 6 Table 1

BAHNALADISH

THIRIDPLODD CONTROL AND DRAINAGEPROJECT

Proposed Credit Allocation

Z of Total Costs Category uS$ to be Financed Civil Vorks 33.0 - 5

Equip.en 1.8 62 Surveys and Investigations 4.0 9L

Studies 1.8 95

Engineeringand Administration 4.5 95

Operationand Maintenance 2.9 76

48.0 74 -66-

Annex 6 Table 2

BANGLADESH THIRDFLOOD CONTROL AND DRAINAGE PROJECT

Estimated Schedule of Disbursment (USn '000)

Smester Ending Per Smester Cumulative USS SDf uS$ SDR December 1985 100 100 June 1986 100 200 December 1986 1,650 1,850 June 1987 1,650 3,500 Decmber 1987 5,500 9,000 June 1988 5,500 14,300 Decmber 1988 6,000 20,500 June 1989 6,000 26,500 December 1989 6,000 32,500 June 1990 6,000 38,500 Decmber 1990 2,500 41,000 June 1991 2,500 43,500 Decmber 1991 1,100 64,600 June 1992 1,100 45,700 December1992 1,150 46,850 June 1993 1,150 48,000 11IRD FLOOD CONTROLAND DRAUINMEPROJECT

CraDAcrege. Yield and ?eduetiou

COP P v* _o W bu&l-kihmAL ba bala a&LL k buLk a&..

I. Qi Mha 1 (29,500 ha) (29,500 ha) (28.700 ba) A. Au. 2,000 1,350 2,700 2,000 1,350 2,700 1,200 1,.900 2,210 t. lus (L) 7,900 1,700 13,430 7,900 1,700 13,430 1.00 2.400 4,320 T. Aq (Rv) 4,000 2,100 11,600 4,000 2,900 11,000 4,200 3,000 15,960 S. lam 3,700 1.900 7,030 3,700 ,9.00 7,030 2,600 2,M00 5,G00 T. .. ti.' 9,000 2,220 19,990 9,000 2,220 19,980 4,500 2,450 11,025 t. .ho (WV) t,000 2,700 16,200 6,000 2,700 16,200 11,000 3,000 33,000 3. hAG+ la 7,500 2,100 15,750 7,500 2,100 15,750 5,700 2,300 13,110 *4ro 3,200 3,200 10,240 3,200 3,200 10,240 12,000 4.400 52,600 Wheat 6,000 2,000 12,000 6,000 2,000 12,000 7,000 2,400 16,600 Jets 2.800 1,600 4,460 2.600 1,400 4,480 2.800 1,600 5,040 Total 52,100 52,100 54,200

Cropping Imteasity 2 177 177 189 1. lgeasm Foldor1 (36,900ha) (36,900 ha) (36,300km) 3, Ass 9,700 1,000 9,700 9,700 1,000 9,700 10,500 1,200 12,600 T. A (Ti) 400 2,900 1,160 400 2,900 1.160 0.0 3,600 3,040 3. Aua 2,150 1,200 2,560 2,150 1,200 2,580 1,550 1,400 2.170 t. Ams (L) 15,000 1,300 23,400 I.000 1,300 23,400 11,500 1,500 17,250 T. Ams (IT) 1,100 3,200 3,520 1,100 3,200 3,520 7,500 3,500 26,250 loro 17,000 3,200 54,400 17,000 3,200 54,400 16,000 4,400 79,200 Wheat 1,700 2,000 3,400 1,700 2,000 3,400 2,500 2,200 5,S30 Jet* 1.650 1,300 2,145 1.650 1,300 2,145 1.650 1,400 2,310 Total 51,700 51,700 54,000 CToppia Tatensity2 140 140 149 1lt. Ilsdhinati-Uahaaas {(38,000 ha) (33,000 ha) (37,200 ha) D. Ana 6,500 1,00 6,500 6,500 1,000 a,.00 11,600 1,200 13,920 S. hau 10,SO 1,200 12,600 10,500 1,200 12,600 8,000 1,450 11,600 T. lua*(L) 900 1,300 1,170 900 1,300 1,170 3,900 1,600 6,240 T. &ma (my) ------3,600 3,700 13,320 3. Ana * Aas 12,000 1,600 19,200 12,000 1,400 19,200 4,600 1,600 8,280 Wheat 3,000 1,100 3,300 3,000 1,100 3,300 3.500 1,300 4,550 Jute 3,500 1,200 4,200 3,500 1,200 4,200 3,500 1,350 4,725 pulsas 6,500 400 3,400 6,500 400 3,400 9,000 500 4,500 Oilseeds 7000 400 2,00 Z000 400 2,600 _,LM 500 4,000 Total 53,900 53,900 55.700 Croppima ltensity 2 142 142 150 -68- ||slL« Table 1

gin. ml MLn. alt l. nim local uf lte 13.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 18.C0 10.0 10.,

Iat.watn t.ual Imfiatiem *.3 7.6 3.0 5.0 2.0 6.0 3.0 (S) hchm. hlate 29.0 32.0 33.0 33.5 34.0 34.0 34.0 (WVSJ)

Ike Vorld Smak hul, Jmuuq 31, 1"S 2/11/85 WAME

ThirdFlood Cutrol ad hralap

Ecomic price of Padty

11 mi m1 191 lm lmu ImO Im aIz 1993 1M rm -4 --- - . - - 9 . . ,... ------@ ------_

ThatSt hod., FOBl3alkok 1/ CoadtIU 1USper RI ICYbasis) 255 224 221 249 279 301 330 323 325 323 320 312 Cuist FY85US pn MI (FYhaslED 241 227 239 263 23 317 330 323 326 323 321 Eschagelate Ilk per UStI 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 CoastFr35 Tk per NI 40 1572 6940 7621 3368 913 952 912 9441 9372 9303 I Adijstht Factor 0.9 2 CIFChittapa 6232 59)5 626 65t 7531 8270 8624 8560 1497 8413 8372 Plus: H1eilugaid Trauspurt ktee Fort and Rhrket 3/ 1150 2250 1150 2I50 I150 1150 2150 1150 1150 1)50 1250 Mt Price 7432 7065 7396 "9 U1 9420 9774 9120 9647 9f 9522 Les: ProtK ssinCEst 41 580 S0 580 50 5 580 580 500 580 560 58t Er-Nill Priceo4 Rico 52 645 6316 7421 8101 340 9194 9130 067 "005 3942 Equivalet Price of Pady 0.47 4591 4345 4567 4977 5428 5923 6160 6117 6075 6033 5t91 Less: HIdli.,q ad Transport betwm Mill andFarqate 5 110 110 210 320 110 110 210 110 110 110 110 Fuseate Price, lk per RI 4411 4235 4451 4867 5312 5013 6050 6007 5165 5923 583 faraqatePrice, lk per Kg 4.46 4.23 4.46 4.37 5.32 5.81 6.05 6.01 5.97 5.2 5.1E

1 Vorld lak. EPKOC,Jhauary, 9. 21 lasedon FV76-f1`14relatioeusip btweenImport Unit prices andreference quality prices. 3/ lamede10 It Projett SMO4343-109.UNa-traded cost to nieolt.have been adjusted by Stf of O.8. 41 let of valve of by-produts, adjustedby SCFof 0.3. 5/ Averagedistate issued to be 10 miles. Adiustedby SF of 0.3.

0)113185 ThirdFloe Cutrel NEhreiap

fcisic trice of Seat

1`94 59. Iu 5,37 5n Im im mai T12 ITs Im Im

S, I. uwe$, Thader ly It Cue 5964NO1 e ? ICy thniu 110 557 141 141 143 14 149 l4 147 147 166 145 CostFM IIS pw er Inr basis) 164 1553 1 IU 149 141 149 149 14 14? I46 lactp late I1l W Oll 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 gust Fm lt pwrIT 416 4430 4M 436 4321 4335 431 4307 4234 4261 4233 * Ujiitit Futer 1.121 CIFCbitta_ 242 4373 4721 4737 4733 4769 4164 4716 4712 4I7 466 ties: "list aid Irauwt ko1 Pwtad Ibktt 31 1155 110 IISO 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 N lletprice IIS 1150 1550 3M 1023 5611 5661 593 59 5114 Sl 562 537 Sll1 Less: iNlig ad Tramit betum lUket NE Fmaeate41 1 11 II0 550 III 110 III 110 110 I0 fit kadiestWfPrate ltO fPice, tn la IT 62 3913 5761 3771 5S 360 60 5776 3752 5727 3701 Les: lau l of Foreip Ittr 1525 314 296 2 m 2 29 2n 23 20 236 2 FaregatePrice, it k WNIr 5916 5617 1173 546 5503 5513 5554 541 S465 PagatePice, 5440 5416 nb p Kg 5.97 5.62 5.47 5.49 5.50 5.52 5.51 s.4n 5.46 5.44 5.42

It bald take. (FU, lauuay,aM. 0'I- I1 hs a mOM 3 relatlmshipbetwu ieWrt wit prites aid refernce palty pricn. * 31144 e IN 11PreJKt U1414340-111.ba-trded cost cposets avetbets adjusted by SU of 0.13. 41 eige diteme asund to be 10ailes. Ujmste by5t of 0.3. OhIO/U 11AKUK

Third Flud Cintral mWbraluaq

Euuoic Price of Jute

2134 I2l nui MY6 2mm 19 no 29I 1n2 I"93 294 1m

3u1ldish Sites, Fu COiultt" alea It Comui1u14 V8 W NTICY basis) 533 42 36 274 202 271 260 261 261 262 262 263 Coast fM5 S1per Ni IFT basis) 4U3 369 301 29 271 267 262 262 263 263 214 EmchmpRate I1l PKr16) 29.0 29.0 2n.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29. Cost Is It Wr NT 14419 20lll 140 39 MY 7735 7566 7604 621 1639 7665 * Udjustmt Facto 1.0 21 CIF Clittau /Chaila 14019 207l2 3710 3M 805 7135 75U 7604 1621 763? 7656 Less:NudIlq ag Truwrt lt,. Fort NA Sture S 140 146 146 140 1440 140 140 1460 1460 1440 1430 NarbetPrice 12559 9l IM 4932 6597 6275 6126 6244 6161 1in 6296 Lon: Processing, le1.ad Tripert ktu. Nartet mW irvgatet t 14" 1440 140 140 14t 1ow 1440 1440 140 1440 1440 hailutudFerqate Price, It perIT 21191 732 5U40 5492 5157 435 46U 4704 4721 4139 4756 Ujusted1"1111m Efticiecyv 0. fareatePrice, Tk Wr Aln 6247 4472 4n33 4125 30 374 3763 3177 3712 33 FaragatePrice, It pWK.g q 6.25 4.61 4.3? 4.23 3.31 S.15 3.76 3.73 3.79 3.31

11oid gol. EPIW,Jary [M.1if 2Vks as F176-F14relatiu ip ktue npWt sit pricn ad refenrKe pal1typricee. St Na .a M Suallkk s froject S(4d15" ). b-trAd cat c emeil have km djuted bl SU. of U .

02,2,ln IIUAKSH

Tkird FloodCotrol andgrainage ..------...... EconosicPrice of Oilseeds

1984 19115 3U 1987? 1i95 1939 390 1991 1992 1993 1994 1395

Soybeans,US,CIF Rotterdan It Const1IS3 USOper HI ICYbasis) 202 253 248 244 244 243 241 240 239 239 238 237 CoastFY5S US5 per HI IFTbasist 24N 252 248 247 245 243 242 241 240 239 239 ExchangeRate 1Ik per USI) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 CoastFY9S Ti per hi 7791 7301 1202 7153 7100 7049 7012 6M 69S 6942 6919 x Adjustaiot Factor 3.321 CIFChittagongl/Chalna 1013 9491 9343 9294 9230 44 9116 9065 9055 9025 8995 Plus: Handlingand transport betit,e Portand Market 3/ 1250 1250 I20 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 MarketPrice 11385 10741 10413 10346 10480 10414 30361 10335 30303 10215 10245 Less:Processing, Handling and Transport betweenarket and Faregate I/ IIS0 1130 1160 1160 1130 1140 1360 1140 1140 1360 1130 UnadjustedFaregate Price, Ti perNT 10225 t95I 9455 938& 9320 9254 9204 9115 9145 9115 9085 Plus: Valueof Oilcake 4/ 12.0 1220 1220 1220 1220 1220 1220 13220 220 1220 1220 Farsqat.Prite, lt perNl 31445 3O060 10473 1004 30540 10474 1042 1035 10363510335 I0305 FuaaptePrice, TIper Kg 11.45 10.80 10.61 10.A1 10.54 10.47 10.43 10.40 10.31 10.33 10.30

I/ WorldDank. EPKO, January I98. 21 lasedon FY11-FY1 relationthip keteen exportunit prices ud referane quality prices. t/amed onlot Sall SIcietsProject SM14115-1Sl. lsb-traed costcopontats have bm adjustedlv SC of 0.1. 4/ CaWerecovery rate 0.46. Adjsitedby SQf41 .o eI/IO/H DANGLAKSH

third FloidCGotrol and Drainage

EcoanaicPrice of Urea

9,M 19s 1116 1987 1Me9 Iffl 1990 1"1 IW2 1993 1194 IM

Urea,lagged, FOB Europe I/ ConstIt94 US1 per Ml ICYbasis) 171 181 204 213 223 233 243 24 247 249 251 253 CeostFYS5 US1 per ml Ifybasls? 177 193 210 21? 229 239 245 247 249 251 253 ExchangeRate Ilk per USII 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 CanstFY85 I& per III 5130 5610 6078 6350 6634 6931 7111 716U 7227 7285 7344 x Adj;steentFactor 1.42/ CIFCttlttagoi 119 1 71855 8510 6890 9218 9703 9955 100'6 10117 1019 10212 Plus: Handlingand Iransport betveenPcrt and IarLet31 41 150 750 750 750 750 750 -750 -750 -750 -750 -?50 NIrIet Price 7931 3605 9260 9640 10038 10453 9205 9286 9367 9449 9532 Plus Handliogand Transport bttweenWIraet an raragate5! 190 1S IS0 180 ISO [go 180 180 10 190 Igo Farsqate trice, Tkper Ml 1111 1795 9140 9920 10211 10633 9135 9461 9547 9629 9712 FaQegatePrice, 1 per kg 8.11 8.78 9.44 9.82 10.22 10.63 9.39 9.47 9.55 9.63 9.71

1 orldliank. EfbCE, Jnuuay 1M. 2/fated on FY7- FV84 relationship betute ioport uoit pricesand retfereKe quality prices. 3/ lasedon SwdbSmall Schemes Project SM14815-1D0. Noa-traded cost copmpnents baYe been ad justed bI SCfof 0.8. 4 It is assumedthat by 1"91l.qladesh will becu a oet exporterol hen. 51 13Sedoa BAKcosts bet*"* primarrdistributia. poiot andUpzila sales center, plus haadliaqaAd traasport costs to laragate BK Adjuttedby SCFof 0.8. 01110195 Tfird Flow Cutrol ii kaimige ...... _.._ [t(colt Pricei of

111 1 l3S9 It3 " I9 liplm 199 1991 19Z2 193 Im19 Is

I, FogVaceuvur Il Cost 14 Wa wr E1JCT basis) 64 93 94 96 91 97 91 91 91 91 Cost FTY5USO per Ni IF1basis) is 9 5 96 9? 9? 91 91 91 91 Iacha,"I hst IIt for 1U0) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 N.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 Ctmi ft5 1p I 111f 2477 246 2125 2154 216 2012 23Z1 2321 2321 2M1 2327 * Adjissto t Factor 1.4 21 (IF Chittagog 301 352 3115 MS1 31 3931 396 39J 393 31611 39fl pltu: NiAlial aid Irsiusper bote * rt ledl ilet 1lP0 1A 150 15 150 719 15 15 m 150 75< blidt PrIce 4216 402 4565 4N0 4646 4Ut 41" 410 41 470 41" Pigs: adliog Irauspat ilt.t Exarit VWForlate I! In IN In IN IN In IN IN IN ItO In FarsgatePrice, Ik per I 436" 42 4145 435 S26 4U 4U 411 IO 411_ 4I fmogatePrice, Ik Wr g 4." 64.5 4.74 4.9 l.63 4.67 4.69 4.19 4.3n 4.19 4.39

It sIi SIai. DtKI, Jwry 15. 2 Baseds FV14-flIOrelatims,ip ktw.t iqwt wit prices d referumeWlily prfc". 3t ksaeda hA Wl Sck.s Projet S1I4ISUI. batraId cost cumla s at lkm. adjustedif SC I0.I. 41laiN s 00K costsk te piswu disItstiMi toist d Ipaila salescuter, plesbaidlaug a trahswt coatsto faragate Adjustedby W of ,.8. wI!q BANGLANESH

Thirdflood Control and Drainage EconooicPrice of TSP

1994 1985 1986 1997 1998 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

TSr,FaB US Gulf 11 CoastBS4 US§ per HI (CY basis) 131 143 151 15 15S 161 165 165 165 165 165 165 ConstFY85 US0 per r (FIYbasis) 139 148 153 157 160 164 166 166 166 166 166 ExchangeRate Ilk per U11S 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 CoastFYS5 1k per nT 3993 4294 4450 4550 4652 4756 4809 4909 4009 4909 4809 x AdjuctaentFactor 1.42/ CIFChittagoag 5590 5998 6230 6370 6513 6659 6732 6732 6732 6732 6732 Plus:Handling and Transport betweenPort and Narket 3/ 750 750 750 750 750 750 710 750 750 750 750 NarketPrice 6340 6749 6990 7120 7263 7409 7492 7492 7492 71482 7492 Plus:Handling andTransport betweenNarket and faragate 4/ 190 IO0 100 190 190 ISO 10 180 JS0 ISO 180 FaregatePrice, Itper nr 6520 6928 7160 7300 7443 1559 7662 7662 7662 7662 7L62 FarugatePrice, Itper Kg 6.52 6.93 7.16 7.30 7.44 7.59 7.66 7.66 7.66 7.66 7.66

11Kold Bank. EPOC, January, 1985. 21lased on FY76-F184 relationship between import unit prices and reference quality prices. 31lased on Bwdb Seall Scheees Project SARI4815-ID). Non-traded cost componentshave been adjusted by SCFof 0.8. 4/ased on MDC costs between priasry distribution point and Upzila sales center, plus handling andtransport costs to farigate '-I Adjustedby SCF of 0.8. crl 01/10/95 m R IOD0 BMNCADG8H Third Flood Controland DzainageProject

EconomicBenefits and Costs- G40tiSubnroiect (Tk Million)

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996-2021 1. ProductionBenefit vith Project 545 505 518 556 599 646 724 775 825 875 924 924

2. On-FarmCost witb Project 240 243 245 247 249 250 246 327 327 407 328 326

3. CrossBenefit with Project (1) - (2) 305 262 272 309 351 396 478 448 498 468 0j 597 4. ProductionBenefit vithout Project 545 505 518 556 599 641 668 646 660 655 651 651

5. On-FarmCost withoutProject 240 243 245 247 249 250 246 247 247 293 247 246

6. Gross Benefitvithout Project (4) - (5) 305 262 272 309 351 396 422 417 413 362 404 405 7. ProjectBenefit (3) - (6) 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 31 85 .106 192 193 .Mu urn a== =an =mm wm am= =m =mum iu uiN

8. InvestmentCosts 1 31 93 100 77 28

9. o08 Costs 0 1 6 8 9 9 9 9 9

10. Total ProjectCosts (8) + (9) 1 31 93 100 78 34 8 9 9 9 9 9 -= .. . "u . s" ... =m .. mw u= mm mw .. mm

11. Net ProjectBenefit (7) - (10) -1 -31 -93 -100 -78 -34 48 22 76 97 183 184 j/ CnA costs includethe replacesentcost of the pump. 'oI

02/11/85 BANGLADEBR

Third Flood Control and Drainane Project

Economic Benefits and Costs - WfaonaonSuborolect ('1kMillion)

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996-2021

1. Production Benefit with Project 44 434 451 489 531 578 658 711 763 814 865 J65

2. On-yarn Cost with Project 219 222 225 227 228 230 226 276 277 277 277 277

3. Cross Benefit with Project (1) - (2) 245 211 226 262 303 348 432 435 486 537 588 588

4. Production Ben fit witbout Project 464 434 451 489 531 578 600 596 592 588 584 584

5. On-Yarn Cost without Project 219 222 225 227 228 230 226 26 227 227 227 227

6. Gross Benefit vitbout Project (4) - (5) 245 211 226 262 303 348 374 370 365 361 357 357

7. Project Benefit (3) - (6) 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 65 121 176 231 231 Una mm on= =m WON Mmu- man man mno m= m. n

8. Investment Costs 1 19 70 99 81 33

9. 06& Cot. I 1 2 3 4 4 4 * 4

10. Total Project Coats (8) + (9) 1 19 70 100 82 35 3 4 4 4 4 4 mo. Wm=m . Wmu= own Won am. =mm. =um man =am mMn

11. Net Project Benefit (7) - (10) -1 -19 -70 -100 -82 -35 55 61 117 172 227 227

02/111/85 mu Third flood Control and DriainaePloieet

leCoQiC Benefits and Costs - Pebuhsti-Nab santa Jubproiect ( k Million)

1212. §1186 1987L Il8 11 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199S 1996-2021 1. ProduectionBnefit with Project 298 .274 276 292 310 330 358 373 389 404 419 419

2. O-farm Cost with Project 21Q8 i 10818 0 109 109 La 126 126 121 12 126

3. koss Benef it witb troject (1) - (2) 191 166 168 2 222 26 3 278 293 223 4. Production eanefitwithout Project 298 274 276 292 310 330 340 338 336 334 332 332 S. On-FarmCoet withoutProject 108 108 108 108 109 109 108 121 128 128 128 121

6. GrossBenefit without Project (4) - (5) 191 166 168 184 202 222 232 210 .209 206 20A 191 7. Projectleasfit (3) - (6) 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 37 54 72 89 89 t now mum man. mum mumu= n mum Om m= mum mum -- M =mu

S. InvestmentCosts 0 18 65 81- 70 29

9. 03& Costs 1 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 10. Total ProjectCost (8) + (9) 0 18 65 82 72 33 5 6 6 6 6 6 man =MuM mm Omu man M== =m. mun MUM mum mum"a

11. Net Project lguefit (7) - (10) 0 -18 -65 -82 -72 -33 13 31 48 66 83 83

02/11/85 , c ridauos cawltzig at.t tw 1 g- Sm41birsi NJi Is Usa.w ,t no PrIiet

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PgUeILL..1 2120..3 2411. 230.3 PakILtL E 53111,1 ML" lil1j Pawr CIA.I 2300.El 2212.124 CLII I'lw Sits) 911L1 .37.4 OlaF .ftf IlLS? AE116? 410.47 not aomFar Cpu) 131f 1714.3 31.0 Iwn ULM 13.24

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trust IS..~~~fvrIsthd mitat etoolath Preject

wat trace crapsd '425 onu eels creed v 612 MUON) 6404 0 62it aetahif 4'e 4g (It) irmoaIhh t*i64 I; (Ti)

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S.eit. 4 0.34 0.22 am 32to 1171.0 0r. Ig6604 3 63.rL. is,2 23 020.0 1006.0 1. .0. Al 4.31 6.0) 292 29.0 12247 6.02 2404 29.4 2C4. 0.63 03 :14.6 4IL0.2 3 m L' kg 4.36 6.0? I30 3.0 34i.2 Li? 1201 14.4 U12.2 0.3s 2466 70.4 302.0 7. m IIaC 4.30 0.31 I31 714.0 22422 1.11 2300 114.4 3242.2 0.3 6160 170.6 2451. T. meusIN kg 4.20 O.34 220 0 6IS 310.4 L.04 3204 I20.0 1504 6.3 236 173. 37C.5 tia miiUi to 0.20 0.46 4 0.0 LO4 L0 I 0.3 6L4 0.60 0 0.0 0.0 laro 4o 4.20 6.33 m2u 11760.0 514.0 4.55 200 17N4.0 540.0 0.19 4460 2500.0 221.2-6 *atal PaMr 213.0 2Ism. 367.6 22222. 441.0 29973.1

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11,04,MMDIN MWM IO MM "M %M 1~1dl go'a3M60M I M P m n sdRetb.I,ot zo

1. mmiix mu

pvuas01M so 150. MG. 310. 30.3 6 6 U

1.-tieS d 30011153 he In - 9*.0 3.53.0 29.1503 17.13.1 9 0 I L ti.1,u I 3aet1u5tmiu

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1tf430.gm S .4. 52s. 1033iPo - 117.5357.5 1917.317.5 in 114.535 2.21.6 2.32.6 .212.6 2.m36 3.01.A 3.3 c s 6 CL

55s4a.5amon 3NJ 103. 50 21 50' H; S3.5 . 2,500.6:12424,3b1.24,3 24,14 - .932 . 0.4 64.55 p

1i-?65I 2tim 1,01013 - .01.4 2.0IA3.41.0.4 5.05. 21.46.7 S. Dr". C.ak I 3.w1.wA 34si.wi

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4. 3.3359 31.4...

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limOs. I93 5Fi55 - -la55.5 92.5 514 M 9*2 13167 711671.64.2 . . . 5..5 6.5 gm9 elS

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WT"aS~m 1.3. - - 5.wkpg'i.32.0.201. w 351 7.13.

1.-ld 5.013th h.0.mi &634. 314.6A5131..147.?4 -3540.2 L MU9134Bo

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Ad O1Md* wat 3ad 3.u055 g311LI0.1 ad3 5WMiNll- IVA4.9.4.254 iWI is.5twed).

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SisAl SI0 WIt am viS HAl 1911096I93 "M,2 loate bt cte SO5 OM SUPl otiS IWO9 0911 93/I: 93.97 I"U late [At. is. tale tk:Ad.1

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I. flskvNsiatL bus.o. 3 Saumls

1. Fleaint atols(3seas hi - .- - '.13. :27.11.4 - - -!1.133.4 I or1 o.- [PI 2.batujattia louwwes

bseuta saev?nl0stcmSf , - 6 20.67 - - - - 12. S2A 01.15 t,Wv to? #AtCse,ns.sr M6Cfs Ia - 3 - I3.03.516 - -1.46291 1.09 0 6.15 I.T t1r

tAest Orates3f reata ND 2I - 3 637.31 - - 12 122.9 01.0.1 0.3? KIP

11tews,auSown lbS - - 11.607.33 - - 27.3.1 5.,40.11 c.m [PI

hWAttie 16-boutdW OOtcas 94 - - 6 43.312 - 47,2 - -- - 47.2 * 9.15 tw" !at

-ToiM Ctet/wtlmn leasesA - .10.6366.63.6

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4.94,. beeto

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5Te1 ins. (stpai- - 2.rA..2 - - - -022.2 3. hn"fbjneS aEVaat

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C. uiua Wr Wa meurFM

aNo"a ana 14111oftts tao -23.0 2.3W2.02.4666 -1.6.61 .4 0 M1 lNte SK hi. ram IND-- -. 312. 312.4 162. "M43.3.36 .s

Male.- I Fikes Mnol. is-o- .S3.a 3.32.651.33.61.32.0 I.M.O 4:760- 0 . 0 01 Psiset baeuts bsot is------06 MA. I 0i0 n -o lasse Is-1.1.. . .0 . -342.2.0 0 go-Ila) pa inofa mer FMi 2,401.22.604.3.4 3I464 5,316.013.0.0 1,0.5192.WA 44-47.2 I. tle3 ftainsIs 3 testis

TfdLin lIs-- -13.239,4 2.431.35.23946 33.3 - .541.1 0 0.1 0 t. k-Ita lausmi famstancoI traisir -J.211.3 lfI.& 402Se6 2412.9 -A u7m.A- THIr FLOOCWo TL MD NAINAEPSOACT Table3. 6miii Im I SUIFOAT bta,ild Cost tdle 17 '000) Parmters

kuUtitu kw Cuts

______-- - ______-- Cant. fer. Coo Smrw tim1l s41iuOM W 87/VIMfisl n t0/9VIM TOil *imt Ct w4/ui U 37/1OM s9/9g ,or9 VIM Total late xczh.Tax lit kc,nt r.zzz sz ss ss-s s--ss szzi szuz--= 2 ZiZiz s s= e zze= eZ i. toin COSrs

At &oration I Naintwsmc i. Iarth's*sinen

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WToml Eartimkos - - - - 16.2 3,9.2 4,H3.3 5,i33 16,297.3 2~ShaWt

kilt Ia latols - 4 4 4 12 10664 - 4-- 425.A 425,61,276.3. 0 0.4 0 @5 FluehiWSluiwt h 7 7 7 21 40.32 - - - - -i2.2 .2M 2 .2 3.7 0 .05 0 DrlUe1 No -4 4 4 12 10.6o - - - - -4034 .23 04 121. 00.05 0 Cuvlvets Na - -- 3 2 9 $.4 - - .- - - 15.1 15.1 15.1 6.4 0. 05 0 @5 Fra ide Ne - - - - 20 20 200 1,006l - - - - 20.2 23.2 20.2 60.5 00LO. O CMu Ia Ne-1dsto-s 7 7 7 21 5.04 - - - - - 5.2 35.2 35.2 1f.3 I 00.05 0 03 Irtil. ft Statifs h …I I 1 3 211.6 - - - - - 201.6 201.6 21.6 60J 0 0.05 0 NM ZrrIg. SWN b -- 2 2 2 6 50.4 - - - - - 16.311I". 160.3 32.4 00.05 0 0

SWtal sttm - - - - - 1.121.11.121.1 1.121.1e343A. 3. Pim Ca-t ------1-761.t6MA345.1 36.4A 0A 0.3 0 M 4. S ervlsilnIntl. Tr_maert…- - - IS1.2 151.2 2.4 4.6 . 1,512.0 * .05 0O

sb-Tout bratlun I NaIntm - - I151210174 7,139.3Y1WA 101414729371.1

Totl JT Ce4TS - - - 151.21i17.4 7P139.39456.4 10,06.72T9,l7.1

IhKh 290 1915 1012 ISM mWCO- M mAin MGM Muiiid goTo le

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li-eld tkaueuf3ilkm a W' 3mmuua16. 71`910.41.111314 226.2 - - 6.31.

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2. luau.is Boib

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3. know .uSied aw usadat Iteuee

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Wh-ld Iumpee mwsd. bii..mI Ituu.tueu 2.23 3051,3 22,3191.34.64. 10.5ll -ld,20.3 4. 310432 SIOu

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31-ho bobbin.I nod41.6.6* bifte* .3 a j Ul. N O.:MoA23.31114 * - 111243

&*WM*town" to4 NJ3. 3.2 39 - - 61.1 31.6 - 2.610 *0.6112 Pi.? - 214dA.4 1.26. I beuius lieS PAe3 NJ 3.3 IJ0.23. - 4* 4003 4.L32. 411.9.4.33.164423A4 314611. 1.1 6AS I a

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cc iii.l. l.j,,ic 1*!erunn noomia:nu Wa -Nfm zwm na u ntasiN C.: ll (TI 1400

Ub^l NM SW 117 VAN MAR 19m9 91/9 9d14t toa d "t WM M WV VIM e 0" 1M 1 t#U ttl Ist Eb. taxU ktt

1. u nWS s .os I. brcatnm C hIrII r

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Shb-taI EaUtuiris - - - 614.97,131.9 3961.4 41136.1 54217. 3 d"6.0

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S6*-Tal Stlnatlrt - - 54,4 54.4 1,212.51,9.2 122M.23,907.7 - 3. S,weevisionlK!. Trmwo,It - - - - - I2.e 12.0 241. 362.9 M32. 1,209.6 S 0.35 I WM

ist-Tetalb ratMe I Nunte9 - - 790.22,307.3 5,415.969. 64*9.0 2199O.2

Tetal6100 COStS - - - 790.32,307.3 5,415.9 4 4.36,943.3 21."6.2

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'tarn- eq InLmEi u3rn.WM e G RAM~~~~~~~~~~~~ W ta UM1AKISH THIRDFLOOD C0NTROL MDDRAIIME PROMECT Table9. NMAO POUIERI SUOECT DetailedCost Table (T '0001 Pareetars

ontltu list Costs Ph1w ------~--...... ------Cnt.r r. sross S.arv tUnit 4/85E5/86 96/97 97Jt3 98/89 9/90 90/91 91/92 Toal LUnitCost 84/t5 85/U666/87 87/88 88/89 99/90 S I/9191/92 Total RaW Exch.Tax bigeAcmt

1. RECURRENTCOSTs

A. OperationI naintenance

1. Earthiorks

EmbankmntRepairs Km - - - 30 40 60 90 100 310 13.104 - - - 393.1 524.2 786,21I0483 1,310.4 4#062.2 0 0.05 0 Oml KhalMaintenece Ka - - 10 20 30 40 69 169 11 0W - - - .9 222.9 332A 44U3.5765.1 1.73.9 0 0.05 0 Oac SecondaryDrainafe Canal Ka - - - - 70 120 10 230 600 5.01 - - - - 352.e 604.9 907.21,159.2 3,024.0 0 0.05 0 Wi Revetnts Ka - - - - - 10 10 10 30 50.4 - - - - - 504.0504SO 504 16512,0 0 005 0 Wi RoadPmnt K - - - - 5 10 15 15.445.4 t.o0 - - 40,3 80.6 121.0 124.2 366.1 0 0.03 0 am

Sub-TotalEarhorks - - - 504.0I1139.0 230.3 3024.0362.9 1088,2 2. Structures

majorRegulators No ------3 3 6 106A4 ------319.2 319,2 638.4 0 0.4 0 WI FlushingSluices No - - - 6 6 6 18 40.32 - - - - - 241.9 241.9 241.9 m.8 0 0,05 0 WI Culverts No - - - - - 10 10 10 30 5.04 - - - - - 50.i 50.4 50,4 151.2 0 OOS 0 OAi Irldes "ao - - - - - 10 10 10 30 10,00 - - - - - 100.3100, 100,IO302.4 0 0,05 0 OAi. Footbridges ao - - - - - 10 10 10 30 1.009 - - - - - 10.1 10.1 10.1 30.2 0 0.05 0 Wi CrossRegulators No - - - - - 20 20 20 60 5,04 - 100.3 100.3100.8 302,4 0 0,05 0 am

Sub-TotalStructures - - - - - 504.0 t23.2 823.22.150,4 3. SupervisionIncl. Transport - -- - - 121.0 121.0 241.9 362.9362.9 1.209.6 0 0.05 0 WI

Sub-TotalOperatiun I Maintence 625.01.20,0 34.54,24210.1 5,04 14,19,2

TotalRECURRENT COSTS - - - 625.01240,0 34054,2 4,210.1 5r048.9 14o19"2 222=1 22222 22222rxz2232222222 222am 2=22*222*32**322222--z=aaz

March29S 195 10:40

:1.. HINRFLOOD CffTR0L AND NRAJIC MACY 3.arv kccowitsbu Year Totals IncludindContinduicis Totals Includla4Contirdoihs (TX'000) (tIMs'00)) 84/85 35/6 36/3 97/U 88/89 89/90 "141 91/92 Total 64/15 15/36 34/17 37/U 11/10 89/0 "0/9I IIM9 Total

1. IMIfATETCOSTS

A. LANDACWIS1T1UN - 56t214.7129,644,2 8606,74.- - 272793il. - 1,38,4 4~057*62,6234 - -6624,4 to CIVILMs

It NRAIMKNACMFLOM CUNRSI

EAATIIIOS - 419961,6121,50. 133o376.7122i391, 44,202,3 - - 463.597.1 -1.447,0 3,901. 4,041.73.653, 1,300,1 - - 14243.9 STR!XflS - 627,063,401.8 173i,714 16441,0 93,794.6 - - 521.442.7 - 21.6I,951, 5,266.0 .646,?2,756, - - 15064,5

SU-TotalDAINASE AND FLOOO CONTROt. - 42,511.818l,052. 307,155,1312,236.1 137s",99, B 905.029,1 1,4841,5.7329 9,307. 9.20.! 4,SJ. - - 29,933, 2. ROAS - W812.7 M673l.5 39159,9 21,117.1 7.903o2 - - 99.65.1 - 44.2 i35.4 1.166 653.4 232.4 - - .5. 3#IRUISATION SYSTER

CEMS - 2,121.3 6,120.9 Bitlf.l 2.499.2 - 20,011.0 - - 73.6 185,5 266.? 73.! - - 646 STRITtUES - 7,297.9 16,51.9 11,739.7 2,727.6 - - 38,339.2 - - 227.7 512.5 350.4 90,2 - - 1,161.0

Stub-TotalIRRIGATION SYStER - 9809.3 22.704,320,679.3 5,226.9 - - 13420.2 - - 306.5 0611,0 1.3 153,7 - -1,765,6

Su-TotalCIWIL VMRS -46,771,5 221,593,3369,019, 354903,6 151,126.9 - IPI43p315.1- 1,612,86,924.9 11,132.4 10,591.2 64444.- - 34.736.1 co EoiPHm- 2o747,258,233.1 324,512 - - - 93p566.5 - 94.71.619. 997#3 - - -- 2,902#0 DoUDWTS ANO INKST1ATION 277.0 43943,0 69r106,720,114.1 1,4596 525,7 577,7 634,8 136,638.5 9.6 1,515#32,159,6 609.5 43,6 15.5 17.0 18.7 4,388.6 E, ITUDIES 2,'40.2 9,707.3 16,629.9 5,26.7 6,5016 7130.9 7,726.4 1,261,2 56,624,6101.4 300,3 519,7 179.6i 194,1 20997 227,2 37.1 1,769.1 F. USIN, I APN# . 6,340 29,623,550,055,3 48012,5 20,523,5 - 154,960.6 - 220.9 932,0 1,516.91,437.4 603. - - 4,710.7 9. 110HNICALASSIST, I TRAININ 4.915o011.042,3 30.7n1.9 39.414,4 26.915,7 15,09l.0 - 23,159,7169.5 310.3 960,1 1,16.0 603.5 444.1 - - '5.

Total IWESTMENTCOSTS 9,132.2175,132.9 555,957.6 603,999. 437,632.9 194,45o0 3,304.1 1.394,01,936.260,2 260.4 40643. 17t373,716,300.0 1?*069. S.17.6 244.2 55.9 A4104.7 ------33 3 33-w= -Z--

It. RE0JRLNCOSTS

AoWIRTION I NA1NTEWIC - - 20,215 38512,027,153,0 39,349,0 47,993.4 125,243,9 - 68.2 254.1 799.61,157.3 1411.63,690.0

TotalRC1JNI COSTS - - 2#251.5 9,512,0 27,156,039,349.0 47,93,4 125,263,9 - - - 41,2 254.1 799,61,1I57,3 1,411,6 3,690.0

Total MROCTCOSTS 1,132,2175.932o9 555,957.6 666,151.2 446,344,3 221,563.1 47,63.1 49,339.3 2.111,24,1 260.464,03.2 17o.73716,341,2 13.323,7 W.16.6 1,401,6 1,467,3 64,794,7

March29. 1IM 10.143 THIRFLOO CONTROL 3 NRAINAIC PCT FmrgJetCoaugmts by Year

Totals IncludingCOntinuncs Totals lItludig Citirncls (TN'0001(u lIESO)

64/8 65/86 86/17 67/1 n 81n 0/ 91/92 Total MM KM WI? 1/U NM 1/ 0/91 91/92 Totl -- m _ * XT 1TM wwwroson * x *s x= W _ ss ss 2 3 A. GRunF1s I 26l4O109147.0 247,M.7 244770.4131S767.1 731144.4 21,0.n7 23,95.15 MA3SSA9 .7 3W3177216*1 7,47.3 4,!30,4 2.151,2 64.2 72.l 26659.3 3. WA1"F 1 2I74WS 42.4 2U639, IU2723O 15S31U 749"94410., 10I12. 651,t23.S 91,11464.2 5.121,91,711.9 4.2,3 2,2 312.3 22.9 1924.2 C. IMWIATHAAN 20774.514394.3 144322.1172 WAWA 137.721s373o,4293 15,065.6 1910.9 5.344.7 95.71,203.3 4,525.75,232.1 4,111.1 2,159.7 443.1 4A0.611e211.1

Total OCT COSTS 3.132.2175.2, 555FW57.6606,151,2 4463441 221,563.1 47,681.1 49o11.3 2,111524.1 214.4 6.072 13m.7 11366.213131.7 4516.6 1,401.6 1,44.3 4,94.7

Narb 29. IM 10145

Ii. THIRDFLOOD COURt MD lNAICPIJECT

(US$'000)

Phyical ConlnirJcins PriceConirdnlcnes easu Costs ------Total Incl, Lto. ------Local Local ------Local(Exnl. Duties I For. (Excl. DutiesI (Excl. DutiesI Local(Excl. Mies I For. Cxch. Taxes) Taxes Total Exch.Taxes) TaxisTotal For. Exch.Taxes) Taxes Total For. Exch. Taxes) Taxes Total

I. IWNESTI%ENTCOSTS ......

A.LMD ACQUISITION - 79147.6 - 79147.6 - - - - - 1476.9 - l.476.1 - 8.6244 - 83624.4 3.CIVIL WORKS

1. PIAINACIAND FLOD CONTROL

EARIWOR%S 585.0 S.581.S - 1OIU669 58.5 958.2 - 1*016.7 180.92,979.5 - 3,060.3 824.4 13,U49.6 - 14.243,9 STRUCTURtS 44658.6 5p522.1 535.910716.5 465.9 552.2 53.61.071,6 1,756,11,954.1 195.J33,06.4 6,981.4 8.028,4 784.715694,5

Sub-TotalDRAINADE ANDFLOOD CONTROL 5S243.6 15,204.0 535.820,883.4 524.4 16510.4 53,6 2M088.3 1,737.840833.6 175.36.9640. 70705.9 21447. 74,729,938,4 2, ROADS 125.6 2.057.7 - 2.183.4 12.6 205.9 - 218.3 39.3 611.1 - 650.4 177.5 24874,6 - 39052,1 3. IRRIGATIONSYSTEM

CANALS 24.0 392,4 - 416.4 2.4 39.2 - 41,6 9.0 137,7 - 146.6 35.3 569.3 - 604.6 STRUCTURES 353.6 419.1 40.7 813.4 35.4 41.9 4.1 81.3 120.1 132.8 13.3 266.2 509.1 593.8 58.0 1,161.0 ------...... - --....---.------..------Sub-TotalIRRIGATION SYSTEM 377.6 81146 40.7 1,22S.8 37.8 91.2 4.1 123.0 129.1 270,4 11.3 412.9 544.4 1,163.1 58.0 1,765.6

Sub-TotalCIVIL IOR)S 5#746.9 17.973,2 576.524.296,5 574.7 14797,3 57.6 2.429#7 2M106,25.715S1 208.6 89029,9 8.427,7'25P485.7 842.834,756,1 C. EGUIPIENT 1.328,0 124,9 928992.391.7 - - - - 291.3 26.0 202.9 520.3 1.619.3 150.9 1.131,82M902.0 D. SiMUCYSANW IHIESTIGATION 2.991,2 57$.5 265.9 3272225 - - - - 493,0 132.8 40.3 666.1 3374.1 708.3 306,2 4.389,6 '6 E. STUDIES 98E.7 447.2 42.1 12378.0 - - - 270.5 115.3 5.3 391.0 1159.2 562.5 47.4 1,769.1 F, ENCIN. A1A, - 3,635,2 - 3p635t2 - - - - - 1.075.5 - 1:075.5 - 4.710,7 - 4,710,7 C. TECHIICALASSIST. I TRAINING 2P518.0 601.8 - 3119.7 - - 675.0 159.1 - 834.1 3.192. 760.8 - 3,953.8

Totel IWYESTIENtCOSTS 13,362.6 30.505.41813.3 45681.3 574.7 1.7973 57.6 2o429.7 3935, 9 M700.7457,1 12t993.7 17773.2 410003.42%328.1 61.104,7

11,RECURRN COSTS

A. OPERATIONI MAINTENANCE 267.6 2,010.5 - 2,278.1 - - - - 167.8 2.244.0 - 1.411.9 435.4 3.254.5 - 3.690.0 ...... ------.. ------_------TotalRECUIRREN COSTS 267.6 2.020.5 - 2.2789, - - - 167.81,244.0 - 1,411.9 435.4 3,254.5 - 34690.0 Total 13Y630.1 32P516.0l913.3 47.959,5574.7 1.797,3 576 2.4290. 4003.99,944.7 457,114.405.6 12,6 4425,0 2,3289 64,794.7

Birch27, 1985 10150

fb ' I THIRDFLMOO CONTROL ANDT1AIWA MtOCT IRIMN OFSUWA ACCC1MTS (TA'000)

late Cstsg PhysicalContirwaoias PriceCo.t4aum.ifs rotal. mcl. Cant.

Local((xcl, DutiesI Lecal((Mcl, Duties A LocalIE.cl. Duties A Local([xcl, MAissI for. Exch. taxes) Taxes Total for. EKCh, TAxes TaAIS Total for. Exch. Tax") ITaxes Total rot. ExOh. Taxes) Taxes Total

I. ZNVlSTMNTCOSTS

A. LANDACUISITIWI 207,280.0 -207,230.0 - 5.5)5.1 - 65.SI0.1 2r172.19, 272t79.1 3. CIVILMORA to BAIK ANA[MDFLOODCONRO

EARTI3iS 11.965.0 277o5.37O 294840.0 Is&%6, 27.87370 29,484.0 3,193.01l31.06.3 - 139,263.1 26452.3 434,731.38 463,067.1 5TKTURtIs 233,099.4 160139.420,38.9 3150773.1 23,010.0 18P0I4.0W503,9 319077.3 30.026.5 90,030.93,979.3 179,034.3 223,636.1 266.734.5264072.1 521e442.7 ...... ------Sub-TotalORA2MAC ANDTFLOOD CONTROL 152tOL4.6 433.0414.10,033.9 600.613,1 10,206.0 43,01.0 1,033.9Ho,06.3 89,20.3 221i.25.3,979.3 313,549.9 255o491.4 703,446,3264072.1 935.028 2. ROAM 3.643.3 59P674.3 - 6341.370 364.3 5o967,4 - W.31.3 1.002,2 23.413? - 30.21503 50309.3 94,0015.3 - 99.340.1 3. IkiRGATIONSYSTEM

CAMAS 494.3 11.330,1 - 12,074.3 4.0 1.133,0 -1207.5 403.3 4,339.3 - 49.737 3,173.1 13,907.9 - 20,032.0 STR1ITL1(S 290.4.6 12,15534 ,1479,0 23,589,4 1,0235. 1,215.0 117.9 MM38, 5,032,2 6.239.2 619.5 122,30.9 26,822.3 19,610.019917.0 38o33.2

tub-TotalIRRIGATION ISYSTEM 10949.4 23.030,3 1,179.0 30.664,2 1,094.9 2t353.5 127.9 3.066,4 5.941,0 12,429.0 619.0 19I9,13. 17,93.4 33,017.32,917.0 03,420.2

Sub-TotalCIVIL kOA 166,60.3 021.224.216,713.4 7044099.9 26.600.? 02,22.4 1,471.370.440.0 95.463,6 242,492.39,0919 361,2003 "2794.26, 336.39,0527,93.1 1.43,315.1 j C. QUdIPIEN 33.021,0 3,421.726,937.3 69,070.0 - 13.700.6 l.242.39.053.7 249496.6 53,211.6 4,544.036,490.9 93PU.065 DoSIRYS AnDIWYESTIOATION 8363,534 16,490.2'7,7100 107,953.6 - 229003 5,750,41,644.? 20,684.9 104,343.3'22.440,4 9,304.2 236,633.0 C.STUDIES '20.771.712.970.0 2.221.5 39,943.2 - 11,360.9 4*707.8212.7 286,334 37,632.4 2707.7,1*434.1 06,324.6 r. ExSim.% AN. - 1050420.7 105s420.7 - - -- 49.039,9 - 49,539.9 - 1549960.6 - 204,960.6 0.TECHNICAL ASSIST. I IRAININO 73,020.3 1715.402, 901472.3 30.464.7 7,223,? - 37.617,9 103.485,0 24,674.2 - 123,109.7 lotal 1II'JST)ENICOSTS 337P024.2 334,607.352,037.1 1.24.759.1 26.M0.7 52s122.4 1,471.370,460.0 173P23.1 396.751.621,009.4 092,041.1 577o460.1I.333.031.8 75.268.41.936,260,2 It. R[CUDRNTCOSTS

A, OFIRA1IONI MAINTENMIC 7,740.2 803.054 - 66,065.6 - 7,033.2 02o265.1 - 59.919.3 24.793,3 11O0,40, 123.463.9 total RECUUINTCOSTS 7,70.1 53.305.4 - 66.065,6-- 7,033.2 52165.3 590193,3 14,793,3 110.470,4 120,263.9 total 395,274.3 942,963.252,037.11.P390.324.7 264660.7 52.222,4 1,671.370.460.0 230413233 448,916. 21,009.4 400,239.4 592*203.3 1,444002.4 73,261.4 ?2t21.024.1

.------.- ---.-- - - ~---~- - … --- … ------… ----- * ~~-95- AnueXC9 BALADESH. Table 14 THIRDFLOOD CtOTOL MID IDRi6E PRIECT Siurv Accint by Priot Couant IK '0N0)

Phugsela Coini_min_ NADON NTPISE1 IINPOLDER, ATI-In N Total Z Aount

I. INVESTNIETCOSTS A. LANDACISITN 97o250.0 55,710.0 54320.0 207t200.0 0.0 0.0 D. CIVILIRtS

1. MDRAIAN FLOODCONTRL

EATUOS 130799.0 79P261.1 857904. 294940.0 10.0 29P494.0 STRUTUCES 71,042.0 153,607.0 86,129.2 3109778.1 10.0 314077.8

Sub-TotalDRAINAGE ANDFLOOD CDNTROL 201,830.0 231W868.1 1714920.1 6054618.1 10.0 60,561.8 2. ROADS 149716.8 10,725.1 37475.6 63,317.5 10.0 6P331.8 3. RRGATIOSYSiTE

CANM.S 12i074.8 - - 12P074.8 10.0 1p207.5 STRUCTUES 23,589.4 - - 23W589.41O.0 2,358.9

Sub-TotalIRRIGATION SYSTEN 35v664.2 - - 35P664.2 10.0 3p566.4

Sub-TotalCIVIL IOR16 252.211.0 2429593.2 209w79M.7 704,599.9 10.0 70v460.0 C. EUIPIENT 45095A.4 13947.9 104126.7 69,070.0 0.0 0.0 B. SW"UETSAND INDESTIGATION 754113.6 l6p339,0 16P501.0 107P953.6 0.0 0.0 E. STUDIES 13,456.0 14,391.2 12,116.0 39Y963.2 0.0 0.0 F. ENGIN.S AMH. 379697.0 36,254.3 31U469.4 105,420.7 0.0 0.0 G. TECHNICAL'ASSIST.I TRAINING 30,157.3 30w157.3 30M157.3 909471.8 0.0 0.0 Total INUESTIMNTCOSTS 550,980.24092M.9 364p486.11,324759.1 5.3 70460.0

II. RECURRENTCOSTS

A. OPERATIONI NAINTENDNCE 29,871.1 14,198.2 21096.2 66,065.6 0.0 0.0 Total RECIRRENTCOSTS 29,871.1 149198.2 21;996.2 66P065.6 0.0 0.0 Total BASELINECOSTS 580,951.3423p491.1 3964982.31,390,B24.7 5.1 70,460.0 Physical Contingencies 25M221.124029.3 20v979.6 709460.0 0.0 0.0 Price Contin9encies 257,783.52034573.1 1884882.9 650v239.4 5.1 33r477.8

Total PRMJECTCOSTS 863M55.9651,323.5 596,344.72,112,524.1 4.9 103m937.7

Taxes 37,877.821424.8 1595C5.8 75,268.43.4 2,544.5 ForeignExchange 2494029.2 195,996.9 1479337.3 592,253.3 4.3 25,389.7 harch 29y1985 10:53 -96- Annex 10 Page 1

BANGLADESH

THIRD FLOOD CONTROL AND DRAINAGE PROJECT

Polder Concept and AgricuLturalDevelopment

Polder Concept

1. Dependingon the topographyand available financialresources, differenttechnical solutions to achieve a degree of flood control and drainage may be considered:

Embankmentalong the river banks to prevent overspilling;

gi!!le Polders: Constructionof a surroundingembankment, with sluice structures(regulators) to permit the dischargeof the internal runoff as Long as the outside river leveL is low enough;

Tidal Drainage Polders: Constructionof same embankment,with sluice structures to permit tidal drainage. This is only possible in low Lying areas,close to the sea where the tidal range is sufficient to permitdischarge of internal runoff at low tide; and

Pump Drained Polders: Constructionof same embankmentwith sluice structurespsupplemented by pumping units to help discharge the internal runoff when the river Level outside gets too high for gravity outflow.

2. To the above categoriesof flood protection,correspond various solutionsfor irrigation:

- in the case of embankmentsand "simple" polders, irrigation may be provided through (i) LLPs operating along the embankment if there is a sufficientperennial flow in the outside creeks or rivers, or (ii) by allowing the outside water to enter the drainage chnnels through the regulators if the topographyand river level at low stage flow so permit or (iii) by using DTis or STWs, if the groundwaterconditions are favorable. Supplementaryirrigation during dry spells of the monsoon season can be arranged by opening flushing gates to let the outside water in. Check structuresat convenient locationswithin the polder area would be needed to retain water for irrigationpurposes. -97-

Annex 10 Page 2

- the tidal drainage poldersmay also benefit of tidal irrigation, if the tidal range during the dry season and the topography are adequate. Generally,tidal irrigationneeds to be supplementedby LLPs. In low-lying tidal areas, aquifer conditionsare generallypoor and preclude the use of tubevells.

the polderswith drainage pumps can generallybe equipped vith reversiblepumps to provide irrigationduring the dry season. This is the costliestsolution, both with regard to initial investmentcosts and the ensuing operating costs. ThiS alternative may, nevertheless,present the only choice in deep-floodedareas where the topographymakes gravity drainage impossible.

3. The proposed project consists of one subprojectof the tflood protectionembankment' type (Cumti Phase I) and of two subprojectsof the 'simplepolder' category (NaogaonPolder I and Madhumati-Uabaganga).This approach to flood protection,although incomplete,permits to (i) serve as large an area as possiblewith availablefunds and does not require high recurrentCosts for operationand maintenance,(ii) provide basic flood protectionto as many people as possible, (iii) create conditionsand motivationfor gradual agriculturaldevelopment by eliminatingthe major risk of crop failureand (iv) provide partial flood protectionwhich may be upgraded by 'pumpdrainage' when nadif economic conditionswould warrantit at a 14ter stage. 'I 4. The degree of flood protectionof the 'simple polder' system is limited by the interplayof two conflictingfactors:

- the (outside)river level range (between low and higb stage) is about 15 to 20 feet. The rivers start rising in May, cause damaging inundationfrom mid-July, reach the peak level usually mid-Augustand recede below inundationlevel in October;

- the (inside)monsoon rainfallmay total about 50 inches for the months of June to September, while the evapotranspiration for the same period is only about 22 inches. The resulting runoff gets impounded inside the polder, causing the internal water level to rise and flood the low lying areas. The extent of damaging inundationdepends largely on the topographyof the area. The feasiblityof the 'simplepolder' concept hinges on the existence of a deep low lying portionof the polder area sufficientto temporariryimpound the runoff from the mosoon rainfall. -98-

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5. For the three subprojects,the hydrograph analysishas been made and the resultsare shown in-the form of the flood routingcurves attached to this Annex. The analysis of the inundationconditions after the project is completedindicates that ti) flood depth and duration are reduced, (ii) the rise of water level is retarded, slowed,and the peak is reached later in the cultivationseason.

6. Increasedcrop production in & polder or an embankmentprotected area would mainly come from (i) reductionof crop losses due to Late arrival of flood and reduced flood Level, (ii) shift from broadcasted deep water to transplantedshallow water rice cultivation,(iii) substitution of low yielding varieties,and (iv) increasedcultivation of dry season crops in case irrigationis provided..

7. Based on flood depth, the present land use in Bangladeshhas been classified into the followingfour groups:

Cropping Pattern Land Class Flood Depth, m Rainy Season Dry Season

(1) Highland Above flood level BroadcastAus + Rabi Crops 1/ or less than 0.3 m TransplantAas + Rabi Crops temporary submersion Jute + Rabi Crops B. Aus + T. Aman+ Rabi Crops Sugarcane

(2) Medium Highland 0.3 - 1 T. Aman + Rabi Crops T. Aman + Scro Rice Jute + Rabi Crops B. Aus + Rabi Crops Mixed B. AuslAman*Rabi Crops Sugarcane

(3) Medium Lowland 1 - 2 B. Aman + Rabi Crops Nixed B. Aus/Aman+Rabi Crops Bora Rice

(4) Lowland Over 2 B. Amen Rabi Crops Boro Rice

1/ Pulses, oilseeds,vegetables and wheat are the major rabi crops. Their cuLtivationis dependentupon the presence of enough residual soil moisture and/or irrigation.

8. Followingthe completionof a polder or embankmentprotected scheme, the cropping patternwould be modified &ccording to different soil -99-

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Cypes, availability of irrigationvater and reductionin level and duration of floods. Possiblemajor cropping pattern changes in each land group within a protectedarea include:

1. Lowlandarea. Low yield, long stem and long growth period b. man would be substitutedby improvedb. *us or mixed b. aus and amen. Boro rice and wheat could be expanded if irrigation is availablein dry season.

2. Medium lowlandarea. To aus and t. aman would replace b. amen in rainy season. Boro rice and wheat could be grown in dry season if irrigationis available.

3. Medium highland area. Mixed b. aus and aman would decrease and be substitutedby either t. aus or t. aman and b. &us followedby t. mamn. In addition to other rabi crops, boro rice and vheat could also be dry season crops when irrigation can be supplied.

4. Highland area. Cropping patterns would remain the sam as pro-protection stage but reliable irrigation would be needed to achieve higher potential yields.

9. The success of a well designed and constructedpolder project would mainly depend on sound operation and maintenanceof the polder facilities and on the farmers' awareness of and adaptabilityto the new environment. Farmers in differentparts of a polder area would face differentproblems. Generallyspeaking, the reduced flood level in lower lying areas would necessitate substantial changes in cropping patterns and farming techniques for the farmers who have traditionallycultivated deep water and broadcast rice and may be less familiarvith shallowwater transplanted rice. They may also be short in knowledge on the use of water for irrigation of dry season crops. In higher land areas, farmers could get less water on their fields during the monsoon season because of the polder facilities and would have to depend on reliable supplementary irrigationfor their crops. All farmerswould have to improve their farming techniquesto increaseyields and cropping intensities. Thus, an agriculturaland a well planned fisheries development program would need to be prepared for impleentacion followingcomplecion of project facilities.

10. In order to facilitatethe transitionof the polder areas, the projectprovides for i) aerial photographyand mapping of ths lands to help with project implementationand provide a basis for defining suitable cropping patterns,demostrations to test the need and utility of field bunding, the use of adequate on-farm irrigation channels, and possible alternatives to remedy animal power shortage. -100-

Ae 10

Agricultirein the Cumti Phase I Subprojectarea

11. The subprojectarea is located in he Comilla District and to the west of Comilla town. It is bounded by the Cunti river on the north and east, the Daudkandi-Couillaroad on the south and the Couripur-Homna feeder road on the west. It has a geoss area of approximcaLy 37,300 ba of which abouc 29,500 ha are cultivable. It is a part of the Negna-Cucti flood plain and is intersectedby a networkof natural drains (khals), old river courses and spill channelsof the Cuati river. It has a population of 315,000with a density of 960 inhabitantsper square kilomter, making it one of the most densely populatedareas in Dangladesh.The total number of farming families is around 44,000; the average farm size is 0.8 hat however, thirty percent of the farm householdcultivates only 0.4 ha. or lses which puts them bdlow subsistencelevel. The currentannual cropping intensityin the subprojectarea, 177Z, is among the highest of the nation. The better cultural practicesgenerally adopted by farmers in Comilla ara lead to a higher yields when ezcessiveflood and drougbt do not occur.

12. Crop production is usually affectedby floods and drought spells. Floods are a combiacion of (l) flash flood from the Cauti river in early moansoonperiod, hay and June; (2) overbank flow from the Meghna-Custi rivers during periods of high Meghna stage in late monsoon seasons and (3) impededdrainage during periodsof high Keghna stage. Flood depth and duration are variable in time -ad location,but generallyincrease towards the low lying area in the west. In an average yuar about 26.000 ha. t70Z of the subprojectarea) is inundatedto a depth of more than 0.3 a-and the maximu depth in the lauest araa could reach around 3.0 m.

13. Cropping patternis Eovernedby the flood s:tuationin monsoon seasonand the availabili:yof irrigationin dry season. Jn the subprojectarea, b.aus, mixed b.aus and ama.t t. &us, t. aman and jute dominate in monsoon season. Wheat and boro rice are the major dry season crops, but, their presentacraeAgs are rescrictedgiven the inadequate supplyof irrigationwater due to low river flow in the dry seasonand limitedunderground water development. Only about3,7CO ha. is irrigated under manual lifting, low-lifcpumps and tubewellsat present.

14. The extent of flood damage to croy production depends on the depth,duration and time of occureaceof flat%dsand the kind of crop grown. Heevy crop losses usuaLly occur frna a-rly flood in Kay and June which submergesthe maturing t. aus and boro rice pls-tu and msakesthe harvest impossibld. The subsequentflood would4affectthe noracl growtb of b. aus and aman crops. A.rs.ual loss due to floods are estimatedby SlDS from about j: to complete lost of crop with an averacEof about 20. -101-

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1S. The provisionof flood controland drainage works and additional irrigationin the subprojectarea would result in the followingimprove- meats in the future:(1) reductionof floodedarable land area from about 26,000ha to about 18,000 ha; (2) delayedarrival of floods; and (3) increasein the irrigcetdsre from about 3,700 ha. to over 13,000 ha. These changes,in turn, would have the followingimpact on crop production: (1) a decreasein the acreage of broadcastedrice; (2) acreage of high yielding t. aman expands from its present 6,000 ha. to 11,000ha; and (3) boro rice acreage almost quadruplesthrough the increasedsupply of irrigatonwater.

16. Ton water managementdemonstration units each coveringan area servedby a low lit pump (10-20 ha) would be organizedon farmers' land followingcompletion of major civil works. The doaonstrationswould follow the principlesunder the existingIrrigation Management Program (IMP). The purposewould be to train farmers in the efficientuse of water (irrigationand drainage)under varying soil conditionsand to meet the requirments of variouscrops. Atriculturein the WaosaonPoLder I Subprojectarea

17. The subprojectarea is in the uaogaonDistrict. It is bounded by the Little Jamna river to the east,the Atrai river to the west and south and the Kaogoan-tobadebpur road to the north. rtcovars a gross area of 46,100 ha of wbich about 37,000 ha is cultivable. The totalpopulation is around 324,000people, including,31.000 farm families. The average farm size is about 1.2 ha, but 45Z of householdscultivate 0.8 ha or less. Amgng the latter group, 24Z cultivate0.4 ha or less putting them below the subsistancelevel.

18. The flooding problem in the subproject area is due to a combination of: (1) inflow of river waterthrough the khals;(2) overbankspill from the main rivers at high flood stage; (3) drainagecongestion from tho north. In a normal year, about 32,000 ha. or 70o of the gross area is subject to flooding. Approximately 9,000 ha, is inundatedto a depth of 0.6 - 0.9 m. and about 5,000 ha, including three beel areas, is under a depth of more than 3.0 m. During the dry season, about 2,000 shallow tubewelLsand 30 deep tubewlls are serving in tbe subproject are.

19. Current cropping intensity is about 1402. In monsoon season, b.aus, b.amanand t. local amn are the major crops. In dry season, boro rice is the leadingcrop, next to wheat, pulsesand oilseeds. arly flood usuallycauses severe damage to the maturing boro and t. &us crops and alsoaffect sowing or transplantinpof aman crop.

20. The project flood controland drainageimprovement works wouLd reduceflood levelsand delay flood occurrence time, thur minimizing boro -102-

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and &us lossosand allowingmore land to be cultivatedinto improved t.aman. In addition,the re-excavationof khals,construction of new secondarycanals and installationof water controlstructures would make it possibleto maintainwater at a level which allow irrigationof aman crop when dry spellsoccur duringmonsoon seasonor for limitedirrigation of boro and aus crops in dry season.

Agriculturein the Nadhumati-NabagangaSubproject area

21. The subprojectarea is located in both Kaguraand Narail Dis- tricts. It is boundedby the Kadhumatiriver to the east and the Nabaganga river to the west. It has a gross area of 45,000 ha of which about 38,000 ha are cultivable.The currentpopulation is about 230,000,including 39,000 farmingfamilies. About SOX of farm familiescultivate less than 1.2 ha. About ISZ of those cultivateless than 0.3 ha.

22. Annual floodingin the subprojectarea originatesfrom: (1) inflowof river water throughthe khals in early monsoonseason, Kay-July; (2) overbankspill from river during high river stage in late monsoon, July-September;and (3) rainfaLlrun-off accumulated in the low lying areas due to drainagecongestion. About 20,000ha. or 45Z of the total area is floodedin a no.mal year to a depth of maorethan 0.3 m, of which about 10,000ha is floodedto over 1.0 m. Croundwaterirrigation through shalLowor deep tubewellsis limiteddue to watertabledepth in northern and centralparts, high percolationrate of the soil and water salinity content in the southernarea. Surfacewater irrigationis also constrained by the limitedriver flow in the dry seasonand the salinewater intrusion. Rainfedpattern characterizes agriculural production in the subprojectarea.

23. Presentcropping intensity is about 142S. In monsoon season, rice cultivationis dominatedby b.aus, b. aman, and mixed b. &us and amn. Low yields inherentin the varietiesare exacerbatedby floods in early growth stage (aus) and prevailingdry spells in late stage (aman) Completecrop loss happensfrequently in areas where floodscom or recede early. In dry season,pulses and oilseedsare the main crops;wheaL 5 limiteddue to lack of irrigationwater supply.

24. Constructionof embankmentand instaLlationof control structures along the main rivers in the subprojectarea would delay the arrival and reducethe depth of floods. They would also maintainwater level in late monsoon seasonto permit supplementaryirrigation. These changeswould have the followingimapct on crop production:(1) expansionof b. &us, (2) reductionof mixed b.aus and amn; and (3) increaseof t. aman. In addition, crop yieldswould be increasedas farmerswould use more inputs and adopt availablefarming techniques under improvedcultural conditions.

I -103- Annex 11

BANGLADESE

THIRD FLOOD CONTROLAND DRAINAGEPROJECT