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Accelerating Climate Action CRITICAL DECADE 2017: ACCELERATING CLIMATE ACTION CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Thank you for supporting the Climate Council. The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-1-925573-40-4 (print) 978-1-925573-41-1 (web) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2017 This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material Professor Will Steffen contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd Climate Councillor except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Critical Decade 2017: Accelerating Climate Action by Prof. Will Steffen, Dr. Dr David Alexander David Alexander and Dr. Martin Rice. Researcher, We would like to thank Alan Pears (RMIT) and Dr. Pep Canadell (CSIRO) Climate Council for their thorough reviews. The authorship team would also like to thank contributions from our Climate Councillor team and Felipe Avancine, Dylan Pursche and Martyna Kotowska for their assistance in preparing the report. — Image credits: “Wattle Point Wind Farm 20160619_30-35” by Flickr user David Dr Martin Rice Clarke licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; “Solar panel installation” by Flickr Head of Research, user EE Image Database licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0; and “Light Rail in Sydney” by Flickr user Bernard Spragg. Climate Council This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. facebook.com/climatecouncil [email protected] twitter.com/climatecouncil climatecouncil.org.au CLIMATE COUNCIL I Contents Key Findings ....................................................................................................................................................................................ii Recommendations for Policy Makers .......................................................................................................................................1 1. Introduction: Approaching a Turning Point in Climate Action? ..................................................................................3 2. Solutions Underway............................................................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Renewables Uptake Accelerating, Coal in Decline 8 2.2 Increasing Energy Efficiency 12 2.3 Electricity System Revolution: Battery Storage and Distribution 14 2.4 Finance Driving Energy Transformation 15 2.5 Cutting Emissions from Other Major Sectors: Transport and Agriculture 16 2.6 Social Benefits of Reducing Carbon Pollution: Health and Economic 18 3. Reality Check ......................................................................................................................................................................... 19 4. Australia in the World .......................................................................................................................................................... 25 5. Accelerating Risks ................................................................................................................................................................ 29 5.1 Worsening Extreme Weather in Australia 31 5.2 Climate Change is Adversely Affecting People, the Economy and the Australian Environment 34 5.3 Medium to Long-term Risks 38 6. Putting the Pieces Together ...............................................................................................................................................41 References ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Image Credits ................................................................................................................................................................................50 II CRITICAL DECADE 2017: ACCELERATING CLIMATE ACTION Key Findings 1 2 3 This decade is the critical The consequences of climate Solutions to the climate window of time to tackle change are now happening challenge are well known, cost climate change. all around us, from worsening effective and available today. extreme weather, to sea level There has been a dramatic › Since the 1980s, thousands of rise and damage to iconic upswing in climate change scientists have warned that ecosystems. action with a global renewable human activities are driving energy revolution underway. global climate change, posing › Climate change has increased dire risks for humanity. Today the frequency and/or intensity › The burning of fossil fuels - those risks have increasingly of many extreme weather coal, oil and gas - is the primary become a reality. events – heatwaves, bushfire cause of global warming. weather, coastal flooding, and Reducing fossil fuel emissions › In this decade remarkable drought. deeply and rapidly remains progress has been made to imperative. tackle climate change, with the › Extreme weather will worsen global energy revolution driving further unless greenhouse gas › Renewable energy is already a seismic shift from fossil fuels emissions are rapidly reduced. replacing ageing, polluting fossil to renewable energy. fuels as the energy system of the › The impacts of climate future, with the installation of › While global greenhouse gas change on human wellbeing solar and wind systems globally emissions have recently flat- are significant – increased doubling every 5.4 years. lined, more must be done mortality from extreme This has been accompanied to ensure they are trending heat and bushfires, and by a precipitous drop in coal strongly downwards by the end drowning and water-borne consumption, particularly in the of this decade, and then reach disease from more severe US and China. zero well before 2050. flooding. Agricultural zones, coastal infrastructure and › Maintaining this rate of › Climate change is happening natural ecosystems are under renewable expansion could apace with global warming increasing pressure. see the world’s energy driving substantial changes in systems completely eliminate many planetary systems that › Global temperature rises near greenhouse gas emissions by support humanity. Efforts must or above 2°C increase the risk 2040. be redoubled worldwide to of triggering feedbacks that avert much worse, potentially amplify warming, creating catastrophic climate change extreme conditions that could risks. threaten the viability of our civilisation. KEY FINDINGS III 4 5 Australia is failing to › A decade of interference by Failure to rapidly and deeply tackle climate change with vested interests and a lack of reduce greenhouse gas emissions rising and a lack political courage on climate and emissions increases the risk of any coherent, national energy policy have left Australia of deteriorating human health approach to reduce emissions in the dangerous position of and well-being, massive in the short, medium or long having no coherent national forced migration and conflict, term. We are known as a global approach to climate change. crippling economic damage climate laggard. around the world, and the › The Australian Government’s Earth’s sixth great extinction › Australia is highly vulnerable approach, if adopted globally, event. to many of the consequences would condemn us to a of a changing climate, from dramatic rise in global › Quick, decisive national action worsening heatwaves, droughts temperatures, resulting in is required by Australia to create and bushfires, to devastating worsening extreme weather a comprehensive, cross sectoral coral reef bleaching, and most events and catastrophic damage climate change mitigation of our population centres being to natural systems that support strategy compatible with a 2°C exposed to sea-level rise. human life. carbon budget. This action must include: a) a rapid phasing- › Australia’s greenhouse gas out of Australia’s thermal coal emissions have climbed industry; b) ensuring no new upwards every quarter since coal or gas resources, such as March 2015, while much of the those in the Galilee Basin, are developed world has begun developed; c) fast-tracking the the journey towards net-zero transition to renewable energy; emissions. and d) reducing land clearing. › Decisions in the next three › Amongst the G20 countries, years are likely to determine Australia’s emissions reduction whether or not our children target – a reduction of 26- and grandchildren will have 28% on a 2005 baseline – is a fighting chance for a bright unusually weak, nowhere future or will be scrambling to near what is required for us to survive in a disintegrating and play our fair share in tackling increasingly dangerous global climate change. society trying to cope with a chaotic, rapidly changing climate. climatecouncil.org.au 1 CRITICAL DECADE 2017: ACCELERATING CLIMATE ACTION Recommendations for Policy Makers By 2020, the end of the Critical Decade, we propose 1 2 that Australia’s leaders implement the following Build a unified, bipartisan, Create a well-defined pathway five recommendations, if consensus approach to climate towards
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