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Duke Energy® Carolinas DUKE ENERGY® CAROLI NAS I i I fE PJVERBEND— rated Resource Plan (X ONFE (Annal BUZZARD Report) --4 October 15, 2013 Public DEC 2013 IRP TABLE OF CONTENTS PACE ABBREVIATIONS 2 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 2. SYSTEM OVERVIEW 1 0 3. ELECTRiC LOAD FORECAST 13 4. ENERGY EFFICIENCY ANI) DEMANI) Sll)E MANAGEMENT 15 5. RENEWABLE ENERGY REQUIREMENTS 17 6. SCREENING OF GENERATION ALTERNAI1VES 22 7. RESERVE CRITERIA 23 8. EVALUATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE RESOURCE PLAN 25 9. SHORT TERM ACTION PLAN 38 APPEN1)IX A: QUANTI’I’ATlVE ANA LYSI S 43 APPENDIX B: I)UKE ENERGY CAROLINAS OWN El) GLNERAI’ION 52 APPENDIX C: ELECTRIC i,OAD FORECAST 64 APPENDIX I): ENERGY EFFiCiENCY AND I)EMANI) SIDE MANAGEMENT 74 APPENI)EX F: FUEL SUPPLY 93 APPEN1)IX F: SCREENING OF GENERATION ALTERNA’IiVES 95 APPENDIX G: ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE 102 APPENDIX II: NON-Ul1L1tY GENERATION ANI) WHOLESALE 110 APPENDIX I: TRANSMISSION PLANNEI) OR tiNDER CONSTRUCI1ON 130 APPENI)IX J: ECONOMIC I)EVELOPMENT 134 APPENDiX K: CROSS-REFERENCEFO 2013 IRP 135 ATTACIIMFN’I’: NC REPS COMPLIANCE PLAN 136 ABBREVIATIONS CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule CAMR Clean Air Mercur Rule CC Combined Cycle CCR Coal Combustion Residuals CECPCN Certificate of Environmental Compatibility and Public Convenience and Necessity CFI, Compact Fluorescent Light bulbs CO Carbon Dioxide COD Commercial Operation Date COL Combined Construction and Operating License COWICS Carolinas Offshore Wind Integration Case Study CPCN Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity CSAPR Cross State Air Pollution Rule CT Combustion Turbine DC l)irect Current DEC Duke Energy Carolinas I)EP l)uke Energ) Progress DOE Department of Energy DSM Demand Side Management EE Energy Efficiency EIA Energy Information Administration EPA Eiwironmental Protection Agenc) EPRI Electric Power Research Institute FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FGD Flue Gas Desulfurization FLG Federal Loan Guarantee GHG Greenhouse Gas IIVAC Heating. Ventilation and Air Conditioning IGCC Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle IRP Integrated Resource Plan IS Interruptible Service JDA Joint Dispatch Agreement LCR ‘Fable Load. Capacity. and Reserve Margin Fable LEED Leadership in Energ) and Environmental Design MACI Maximum Achievable Control Technology MATS Mercur’ Air Toxics Standard NAAQS National Ambient Air QuaIit Standards NC North Carolina NCDAQ North Carolina Division of Air Quality NCEMC North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation NCMPAI North Carolina Municipal Poer Agency l NCUC North Carolina Utilities Commission 7 ABBREVIATIONS CONT. NERC North American Electric Reliability Corp NO Nitrogen Oxide NPDES National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System NRC N uclear ReguIator Commission NSPS Ne Source Performance Standard PD Power Delivery PEV Plug-In Electric Vehicles PMPA Piedmont Municipal Power Agency PPA Purchase Power Agreement PPI3 Parts Per Billion PSD Prevention of Significant Deterioration PV Photooltaic PVDG Solar Photovoltaic Distributed Generation Program PVRR Present Value Revenue Requirements QF Qualifying Facility RCRA Resource Conservation Recovery Act REC Renewable Energy Certificates REPS Renewable Energy and Energ Efficiency Portfolio Standard I RFP Request for Proposal RIM Rate Impact MeasLire RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard SC South Carolina SCPSC South Carolina Public Service Commission SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction SEPA Southeastern Power Administration SERC SERC Reliability Corporation SG Standby Generation SIP State Implementation Plan SO Sulfur Dioxide TAG Technology Assessment Guide TRC Total Resource Cost The Company Duke Energy Carolinas ‘[he Plan I)uke Energ Carolinas Annual Plan LICT Utilit) Cost test VACAR VirginialCarolinas VAR Volt Ampere Reactive 3 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Each year L)uke Energy Carolinas (DEC or the Company) is required by both the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NC UC’) and the South Carol lila Public Service Commission (SCPSC) to submit a planning document to ensure that it can reliably and af’lbrdahiy meet the energy needs ol its cusWrners well into the future. This year, in addition to providing a traditional standalone Base Case resource plan within the 2013 Integrated Resource Plan (1RP) Update, the Company has also developed an alternative Joint Planning Scenario that examines tile henelits of a coordinated energy and capacity expansion plan with I)uke Energy Progress (DEP). DEC does not currently have tile regulatory approvals required to implement this joint plan, however this scenario simply begins to examine the potential benefits that would accrue to customers once T)EC and I)EP coordinate new resource additions between the companies. Ally benefits that would accrue from new jointly planned resources would be in addition to the current merger savings already being realized through the Joint I)ispatch Agreement (JI)A) and fuel procurement activities associated with existing generation resources. Increased Energy Efficiency/Demand Side Management I)uke Energy continues to expand its portfolio of energy efficiency products and services — offering customers more ways to take control of their energy usage and save money. T)EC’s Energy Efficiency (EE) programs encourage customers to save electricity by installing high-efficiency measures and/or changing tile way they use their electricity. I)EC also offers a variety of Demand Side Management (DSM) programs that signal customers to reduce electricity use during select peak hours as specified by the Company. • Energy Eliciency programs and [)emand Side Management, combined with the use of renewable energy resources are expected to meet approximately one third of the projected growth in customer demand over the next 15 years. This equates to over 2,400 MW of new energy efficiency, demand side management and renewable resources or the eq ii ivalent of three large natural gas—generation flue ii ities. • Aggressive marketing and increased adoption of energy efficiency programs reduce the annual forecast demand growth from I .9 to 1.5%. 4 • DEC will continue to seek Commission approval to implement new DSM and EE programs that are cost effective and consistent with DECs forecasted resource needs over the planning horizon. Growth of Renewable Energy and Solar Resources The Company continues to purchase renewable energy on behalf of our customers and make investments that support our delivery of clean. reliable and alfordahie electricity. DEC’s strategy to comply with the North Carolina Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (NC REPS) is to develop a diverse portfhlio of cost-effective renewable resources including long—term Purchase Power Agreements (PPAs), utility—owned generation, and energy efficiency. I)EC is committed to meeting the requirements established under the NC REPS and to procuring renewable energy in a way that minimizes costs for customers. The Company remains on target to meet these standards within the cost caps established under NC REPS. The Base Case also assumes the addition of future SC. renewable resources that could be driven by regulatory mandates or market-based threes. Solar energy is an important part of the energy future for the Carolinas. As the net price olsolar technologies including tax incentives continues to decrease. customer use of solar continues to increase. • The growth of solar energy has been spurred by several factors, including stale and federal subsidies that are expected to be in place through 201 5 and 201 7, respectively. • Substantial tax subsidies and declining costs make solar energy the Company’s primary renewable resource projected within the NC REPS compliance plan. • The Company’s plan currently prq)ects that by the end ot the planning horizon, the Company will have met over 700 MW of peak demand through solar resources - the equivalent of one large natural gas facility. Retiring Older, Less Efficient Coal Units Duke Energy Carolinas is investing in a brighter energy future lhr its more than 2.4 million customers in North and South Carolina. The Company has built some of the cleanest, most efficient natural gas plants to replace aging, less efficient generation facilities in order to provide essential power to the communities that DEC serves. This advanced generation technology helps the Company comply with more stringent air, water and waste rules. 400 MW of • Since 20! , I)EC has retired 15 coal units. totaling 1,300 MW, in addition to older oil units. is • In April 2015, the last of DEC s coal stations that lack advanced emission controls in Peizer, S.C. are scheduled to he retired. Lee Steam Station tnits I and 2, located currently planned for retirement to correspond with the effective date of the téderal Mercury Air Toxics Standard (MATS) while Unit 3 is scheduled to be repowered to run on natural gas. • In December 2012, following the retirement of the L)an River coal units, the Dan River Combined Cycle (CC) facility became operational. l’his 620 MW natural gas-fired CC generating station located in Eden, N.C. achieves high operational flexibility and high thermal efficiency, while utilizing advanced environmental control technology to minimize plant emissions. • The 825 MW Cliifside Steam Station Unit 6 in Mooreshoro, N.C., which was completed at the end of 2012 is one of the cleanest coal units in the United States and has advanced emission controls that remove more than 99% of sulfur dioxide and 90% of nitrogen and mercury. Improved Emissions The combination of investments in advanced emission controls, retirements of older units and the addition of efficient
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