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From: Dominika Phillips To: Hornsea Project Three; KJ Johansson; Kay Sully Cc: Andrew Guyton; Stuart Livesey Subject: Hornsea Project Three (UK) Ltd response to Deadline 4 (Part 9) Date: 15 January 2019 23:10:44 Attachments: image001.png D4_HOW03_Appendix 32_Option 1.pdf D4_HOW03_Appendix 34_Herring Spawning Clarifications.pdf D4_HOW03_Appendix 36_Aitchinson 2012.pdf D4_HOW03_Appendix 37_Riddington et al 2008.pdf Dear Kay, K-J Please find attached the 9th instalment of documents. Best regards, Dr Dominika Chalder PIEMA Environment and Consent Manager Environmental Management UK│ Wind Power 5 Howick Place │ London │ SW1P 1WG Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail ******************************************************************************************************************************************************** This communication contains information which is confidential and is for the exclusive use of the addressee(s). If you are not a named addressee, please inform the sender immediately and also delete the communication from your system. Orsted Power (UK) Limited is registered in England Registered number: 04984787 Registered Address: 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG The Company is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orsted A/S (a company registered in Denmark) More information on the business of the Orsted group can be found at www.orsted.com Disclaimer version 1.1 ______________________________________________________________________ This email has been scanned by the Symantec Email Security.cloud service. For more information please visit http://www.symanteccloud.com ______________________________________________________________________ Hornsea Project Three Offshore Wind Farm Hornsea Project Three Offshore Wind Farm Appendix 37 to Deadline 4 Submission – Riddington et al., 2008 Date: 15th January 2019 Riddington et al., 2008 January 2019 Document Control Document Properties Organisation Ørsted Hornsea Project Three Author Riddington et al., 2008 Checked by n/a Approved by n/a Appendix 37 to Deadline 4 Submission - Title Riddington et al., 2008 PINS Document n/a Number Version History Date Version Status Description / Changes 15/01/2019 A Final Submitted at Deadline 4 (15/01/2019) Ørsted 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG © Orsted Power (UK) Ltd, 2019. All rights reserved Front cover picture: Kite surfer near a UK offshore wind farm © Ørsted Hornsea Project Three (UK) Ltd., 2019. i The economic impacts of wind farms on Scottish tourism A report for the Scottish Government March 2008 The economic impact of Wind farms on Scottish tourism 2 Executive summary 1. Background and Approach Over the last two decades Energy Policy has seen a marked shift towards renewables as part of the UK commitment to reduce green house gas emissions by 20% between 2000 and 2010. The policy was reinforced in November 2007 with a new target of 50 per cent of Scotland's electricity from renewables by 2020, and an interim milestone of 31 per cent by 2011. The 2011 target implies around 5,000 Megawatts of installed capacity almost double current levels. Given current technology and the time needed to plan and develop large projects such as storage hydro or offshore wind farms, the policy suggests a very significant increase in on-shore wind farms with associated impacts on Scotland’s landscape. Scottish tourism depends heavily on the country's landscape, with 92% of visitors stating that scenery was important in their choice of Scotland as a holiday destination, the natural environment being important to 89% of visitors (Tourism Attitudes Survey 2005). As part of the general policy to create a more successful country, with increasing sustainable economic growth, the Tourism sector has agreed a target of 50% revenue growth in the ten years to 2015 The potential problem is that many people find that man made structures such as pylons and wind turbines reduce the attractiveness of a landscape. It is logical to assume that reduced quality of an important feature could reduce demand to some degree which in turn may result in either reduced prices for tourism services or reduced numbers of tourists or both. Any loss of expenditure will lead to a reduction in economic activity and result in a loss of income and jobs. However the tourism industry itself requires a reliable supply of electricity and climate change threatens radical changes to our valued habitats and wildlife, and may irreversibly alter the very landscape that visitors value so highly. Wind turbines are an established technology readily available in today’s market place, able to supply electricity whilst reducing the effects of our energy usage on climate change. Sensitively located, renewable energy can also bring social and economic benefits to communities and to local businesses. Government is required to evaluate all the issues including landscape, tourism, security of supply, the impact of climate The economic impact of Wind farms on Scottish tourism 3 change internationally (which is indisputably large and negative), and the public financial support implicit in the renewable obligation of the energy industry. To develop appropriate policy requires an understanding of the significance of each of these elements. In reality the discussion on any particular wind farm proposal is now almost always an adversarial debate, and opinions on the policy area of wind farms in Scotland have become polarised and founded on competing myths (of which some are, and some are not, founded in reality). This research sought to provide an evidence base on one contentious element of the decision, the impact on tourism in Scotland, and to assist decision making by identifying: • The potential number of tourists that would be affected - Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to assess the number of tourists that may come into contact (accommodation in sight of wind farms or through exposure while travelling by road) with any of the projects that are built, already permitted, or currently in the process of applying for permission within the planning system. • The reactions of those tourists affected by wind farms - this was established by carrying out both a large-scale internet- based survey of current and potential tourists’ attitudes and values, along with nearly 400 direct interviews of visitor intentions at tourist spots located close to existing or proposed wind farms. • The economic impact of those reactions - this was believed to result from two main sources. First, there may be a change in the number of tourists going to an area when a wind farm is constructed, and it should be possible to estimate the related change in expenditure (through the intercept survey). Secondly, the views from some accommodation will be affected by the construction of wind farms. Under certain assumptions, a fall in average willingness to pay for a “room with a view” results in a proportionate fall in the average price actually paid by the tourist. Consequently, any proportionate fall in expenditure on accommodation can be calculated (through the internet survey). Bringing together the two effects allows the estimation of the net economic impact at the local and Scottish levels. Examining the three questions above is a crucial step in: • Replacing myth with evidence • Determining if there is a trade-off, for local communities and for Scotland as a whole, between energy and environmental benefits and tourism impacts, or • Identifying the circumstances when there should be a general presumption for or against a development. The economic impact of Wind farms on Scottish tourism 4 The initial step in assessing economic impact was to look to the experiences of other countries, by way of a literature review. 2. The Literature Review: This aimed to provide the background and likely bounds for the final results, by reviewing, as comprehensively as possible, previous research on the economic impact of wind farms on tourism. The review examined some 40 studies in the UK and Ireland. In addition, to ensure international experiences were also covered, the review examined reports from Denmark, Norway, the US, Australia, Sweden and Germany. As part of the review a number of the more important studies on attitude and value change were also examined. The findings of the review can be summarised as follows: • There is often strong hostility to developments at the planning stage on the grounds of the scenic impact and the perceived knock on effect on tourism. However developments in the most sensitive locations do not appear to have been given approval so that where negative impacts on tourism might have been a real outcome there is, in practice, little evidence of a negative effect. • There is a loss of value to a significant number of individuals but there are also some who believe that wind turbines enhance the scene. • An established wind farm can be a tourist attraction in the same way as a hydro-electric power station. This of course is only true whilst a visit remains a novel occurrence. • In Denmark, a majority of tourists regard wind turbines as a positive feature of the landscape • Over time hostility to wind farms lessens and they become an accepted even valued part of the scenery. Those closest seem to like them most. • Overall there is no evidence to suggest a serious negative economic impact of wind farms on tourists 3. Number of Tourists Affected The research programme focussed on identifying the impact of wind farms on tourism in areas that depend heavily on the sector in the local economy, in addition to assessing the impact on Scotland as a whole. The choice of which areas should be used as case-studies was made according to the importance of tourism and the landscape in those areas and the presence of wind farms either in operation or under construction. The locations for the person to person surveys were within four case study areas: The economic impact of Wind farms on Scottish tourism 5 Caithness &Sutherland; Stirling, Perth & Kinross; The Scottish Borders and Dumfries & Galloway. Not all tourists in an area will see a wind farm or stay in a room with a view of a wind farm1 at a time when it is visible.