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Making Sense of America's Evolving Global Engagement

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Making Sense of America's Evolving Global Engagement Mika Aaltola, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Juha Käpylä and Ville Sinkkonen (eds.) BETWEEN CHANGE AND CONTINUITY: Making Sense of America’s Evolving Global Engagement January 2018 Publication series of the Government’s analysis, assessment and research activities 3/2018 DESCRIPTION Publisher and release date Prime Minister´s Office, 31.1.2018 Authors Mika Aaltola, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Juha Käpylä and Ville Sink- konen (eds.) Title of publication Between Change and Continuity: Making Sense of America’s Evolving Global Engagement Name of series and number Publications of the Government´s analysis, assessment and research of publication activities 3/2018 Keywords United States, domestic politics, foreign and security policy, defence, trade, transatlantic relations Other parts of publication/ - other produced versions Release date January, 2018 Pages 163 Language English Abstract This report investigates the evolution of America’s global engagement. In particular, it examines both the longer-term trends and the more immediate dynamics that affect the global role of the United States. The report first considers domestic developments as well as strategic debates, to provide a context for understanding the potential changes and continuities in American foreign and security policy during and beyond the unfolding Trump era. The intention is to shed light on the evolution of US global engagement and national interests in terms of the future of international order, great-power relations and the strategic setting of Northern Europe. Within this global framework, the analysis also contributes to the understand- ing of Finland’s broad security environment. In their first year, President Donald J. Trump and his administration have stressed competition between states, shifted US focus to hard power, emphasised the conditionality of alliance commitments, shown a preference for bilateral transactions, and paid less attention to America’s core liberal values. Neverthe- less, in practice the US has been less disruptionist than initially feared. In particular, it remains committed to NATO, continues its engagement in the Asia-Pacific and Afghanistan, combats transnational terrorism and views China and Russia as strategic competitors. Yet, the oscillation between change and continuity has alarmed America’s allies and partners. A transat- lantic “waiting game” has emerged, defined by the need to pursue both strategic patience and selective sector-based proactivity. This publication is part of the implementation of the Government Plan for Analysis, Assessment and Research for 2017 (tietokayttoon.fi/en). The content is the responsibility of the producers of the information and does not necessarily repre- sent the view of the Government. KUVAILULEHTI Julkaisija ja julkaisuaika Valtioneuvoston kanslia, 31.1.2018 Tekijät Mika Aaltola, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Juha Käpylä ja Ville Sinkko- nen (toim.) Julkaisun nimi Between Change and Continuity: Making Sense of America’s Evolving Global Engagement Julkaisusarjan nimi ja Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja 3/2018 numero Asiasanat Yhdysvallat, sisäpolitiikka, ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikka, puolustuspoli- tiikka, kauppapolitiikka, transatlanttiset suhteet Julkaisun osat/ - muut tuotetut versiot Julkaisuaika Tammikuu, 2018 Sivuja 163 Kieli Englanti Tiivistelmä Tässä raportissa tarkastellaan Yhdysvaltojen globaalin roolin muotoutumista ja siihen vaikuttavia pitkän ja lyhyen aikavälin kehityskulkuja. Raportti analysoi USA:n sisäpoliittisia prosesseja, maan roolista käytäviä strategisia keskusteluja sekä ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan kehitystä. Lisäksi työssä tarkastellaan Yhdysvaltojen suhdetta kansainväli- seen järjestykseen, keskeisiin suurvaltoihin ja Pohjois-Euroopan turvallisuusympäristöön. Selvitys pyrkii lisäämään ymmärrystä Yhdysvaltojen toimijuuden vaikutuksista Suomen laajemmassa strategisessa toi- mintakentässä. Ensimmäisen vuotensa aikana Donald J. Trumpin presidentinhallinto on korostanut edeltäjiään enemmän valtioidenvälistä kilpailua, sotilaallisen vallan merkitystä, kumppanuuksien ehdollisuutta sekä kahdenvä- lisiä transaktioita. USA:lle perinteisesti keskeiset liberaalit arvot ovat osittain jääneet taka-alalle. Näistä painotuksen muutoksista huolimatta hallinnon politiikassa on havaittavissa myös jatkuvuutta. Yhdysvallat on esimerkiksi edelleen sitoutunut Natoon, panostaa läsnäoloon Tyynenmeren alueella ja Afganistanissa, jatkaa kamppailua kansainvälistä terrorismia vastaan ja pitää Venäjää ja Kiinaa strategisina kilpailijoi- naan. Vaikka nähtävissä olevat muutokset pysynevät USA:n ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan perinteisen vaihtelu- välin sisällä, ne herättävät huolta sen liittolaisissa ja kumppaneissa. Transatlanttisissa suhteissa on alka- nut ”odottamisen aikakausi”, jota kuvastaa tarve pidemmän aikavälin strategiselle kärsivällisyydelle ja valikoivalle sektorikohtaiselle yhteistyölle. Tämä julkaisu on toteutettu osana valtioneuvoston vuoden 2017 selvitys- ja tutkimussuunnitelman toimeenpanoa (www.tietokayttoon.fi). Julkaisun sisällöstä vastaavat tiedon tuottajat, eikä tekstisisältö välttämättä edusta valtioneuvoston näkemystä. PRESENTATIONSBLAD Utgivare & utgivningsdatum Statsrådets kansli, 31.1.2018 Författare Mika Aaltola, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Juha Käpylä och Ville Sink- konen (red.) Publikationens namn Between Change and Continuity: Making Sense of America’s Evolving Global Engagement Publikationsseriens namn Publikationsserie för statsrådets utrednings- och forskningsverksamhet och nummer 3/2018 Nyckelord Förenta staterna, inrikespolitik, utrikes- och säkerhetspolitik, försvar, handel, transatlantiska relationer Publikationens delar /andra - producerade versioner Utgivningsdatum Januari, 2018 Sidantal 163 Språk engelska Sammandrag Den här rapporten undersöker utvecklingen av USA:s globala engagemang. Den granskar trender som påverkar USA:s globala roll både ur ett längre och ett kortare perspektiv. Rapporten tar först upp utvecklingen inom landet, liksom viktiga strategiska debatter som anger kontexten för att förstå eventuella förändringar och kontinuiteter i amerikansk utrikes- och säkerhetspolitik under och efter Trumps presidentperiod. Meningen är att belysa utvecklingen av USA:s globala engagemang och nationella intressen i relation till den framtida världsordningen, stormaktsrelationerna och den strate- giska miljön i Nordeuropa. Inom denna globala ram, vidgar analysen även förståelsen för Finlands säker- hetsmiljö i ett bredare perspektiv. Under sitt första år har president Trump och hans administration betonat hur stater tävlar sinsemellan, förskjutit USA:s fokus mot hårda maktaspekter, poängterat det villkorliga i alliansförpliktelser, betonat bilaterala förhandlingar och gett mindre uppmärksamhet åt USA:s liberala kärnvärderingar. Trots det har USA i praktiken varit mindre splittrande än man först befarade. Framförallt är USA fortsättningsvis enga- gerat i NATO, samt i Asien-Stillahavsregionen och Afghanistan, engagerat i striden mot gränsöverskri- dande terrorism och ser fortfarande Kina och Ryssland som dess strategiska konkurrenter. Det oaktat oroar växlingen mellan förändring och kontinuitet USA:s allierade och partners. Ett transatlan- tiskt ”spel av väntande” har uppkommit, definierat av behovet till att sträva efter både strategiskt tålamod och en selektiv sektorbaserad proaktivitet. Den här publikation är en del i genomförandet av statsrådets utrednings- och forskningsplan för 2017 (tietokayttoon.fi/sv). De som producerar informationen ansvarar för innehållet i publikationen. Textinnehållet återspeglar inte nödvändigtvis statsrådets ståndpunkt TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 PART I: DOMESTIC DRIVERS OF CHANGE AND CONTINUITY...................................... 10 st 2. The political culture: competing visions for 21 -century America ............................. 10 3. Institutional and party-political dynamics in the United States .................................. 24 PART II: FOREIGN AND DEFENCE POLICY ..................................................................... 36 4. US foreign policy: the “Trump doctrine” .................................................................... 36 5. Crosscurrents in US defence policy .......................................................................... 45 PART III: MULTILATERAL GOVERNANCE ........................................................................ 59 6. The uncertain future of the liberal international order ............................................... 59 7. Global economic co-operation in the Trump era ....................................................... 69 PART IV: NEW GREAT POWER POLITICS........................................................................ 81 8. The US-Russia relationship ...................................................................................... 81 9. The United States and the transforming security environment in Asia ..................... 90 PART V: THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE ................................................................. 99 10. Trends in the transatlantic security relationship ...................................................... 99 11. US engagement in the Arctic ................................................................................ 109 12. The US and the security of the Baltic Sea region ................................................. 121 13. CONCLUSION: THE EMERGENT
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