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Conflict Prevention in Africa at the End of the Twentieth Century: Seizing Opportunities to Rescue an Endangered Continent

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Conflict Prevention in Africa at the End of the Twentieth Century: Seizing Opportunities to Rescue an Endangered Continent Conflict Prevention in Africa at the end of the Twentieth Century: Seizing Opportunities to Rescue an Endangered Continent By Abdul-Rasheed Draman, BA, Dip. Ed., MA A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctorate of Philosophy Department of Political Science Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario Canada © A-R. Draman 2005 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Library and Bibliotheque et Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 C anada C anada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-18214-7 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-18214-7 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce,Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve,sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, preter, telecommunication or on the Internet,distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non­ sur support microforme, papier, electronique commercial purposes, in microform,et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. this thesis. Neither the thesis Ni la these ni des extraits substantiels de nor substantial extracts from it celle-ci ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement may be printed or otherwise reproduits sans son autorisation. reproduced without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne Privacy Act some supporting sur la protection de la vie privee, forms may have been removed quelques formulaires secondaires from this thesis. ont ete enleves de cette these. While these forms may be includedBien que ces formulaires in the document page count, aient inclus dans la pagination, their removal does not represent il n'y aura aucun contenu manquant. any loss of content from the thesis. i * i Canada Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Abstract This thesis is a comparative study of four cases of conflict prevention in Africa. The cases are divided into two sets - failed and (qualified) successful cases of prevention. The first set - failed cases - are Rwanda and Liberia whilst the second set - (qualified) successful cases - are Lesotho and the Central African Republic. Whilst these cases differ in terms of outcome, they are similar in many respects. They are all African countries and emerged from the shackles of colonialism in the early 1960s with similar economic and political systems. In addition, they are all less developed and share similar socio-cultural characteristics, with at least two or more ethnic groups. The thesis argues that, even though Africa seems to be the most violent continent in the world in terms of its share of the number of intra-state conflicts, conflict prevention efforts do not match the scale and levels of destruction on the continent. Against this background, the thesis investigates questions such as the following: What is the most effective way to bridge the warning-response gap? What is the most efficient method of mobilizing the much needed ‘political will’ to prevent conflict? Why has it been difficult to prevent conflicts in Africa? Specifically, the central question of this thesis is: How can preventive action be made a favored policy choice towards the handling of conflicts in Africa - a continent that carries the largest burden of conflict? It is hoped that answers to this question will help direct the attention of policy makers to how to act preventively in Africa to stop conflicts before they start. The thesis focuses on the role that regional organizations can play in conflict prevention vis-a-vis the role of the international community. While preventing conflict presents monumental challenges, through case studies, the thesis demonstrates that where there is political will and leadership, it is possible to surmount these difficulties. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. FOR YASMIN My daughter, love, inspiration Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Acknowledgements In writing this dissertation, I benefited immensely from the support, guidance and generosity of a number of people and wish to take this opportunity to sincerely thank them. First, I would like to thank my Supervisor, Professor David Carment. My relationship with Professor Carment began when I was finishing my MA thesis at the International University of Japan in the Summer of 1998. Since then, he has always been there for me both professionally and socially. But for his generous support and encouragement, I would have given up the pursuit of a doctoral degree. I would also like to thank the other members of my supervisory committee - Professor Harold von Riekhoff and Professor Chris Brown. Professor Brown in particular has been very generous to me with his time. He provided me with very detailed but constructive suggestions on how to get a better product. For that, I will remain forever grateful. In addition, I would like to sincerely thank my External Examiner - Professor Timothy Shaw - for his very constructive suggestions which have proved very useful. My friends - Momodou Loum and Michael Alandu were also supportive. I sincerely thank them for their friendship and support. I am also grateful to my employers - the Canadian Parliamentary Centre - particularly my director, Dr. Steven Langdon for his generous support and encouragement that enabled me combine work and finishing up this dissertation. Finally, I would like to sincerely thank my daughter - Yasmin - to whom this work is dedicated. Yasmin has had to go through a lot because of this dissertation. She was a source of courage and energy for me, particularly during moments when I thought this project will never be completed. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Abbreviations AFL - Armed Forces of Liberia ANC - African National Congress BCP - Basotholand Congress Party BDF - Botswana Defence Force BNP - Basotho National Party CAR - Central African Republic CIFP - Country Indicators for Foreign Policy CTF - Combined Joint Task Force DRC - Democratic Republic of the Congo ECOMOG - ECOWAS Intervention Force ECOWAS - Economic Community of West African States ESAF - Extended Structural Adjustment Facility FEWER - Forum for Early Warning and Response FLS - Front-Line States GEDS - Global Event Data System HDI - Human Development Index ICISS - International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty IFIs - International Financial Institutions IFMC - Inter-Faith Mediation Committee IGAD - Inter-Governmental Authority IGNU - Interim Government of National Unity IMC - International Mediation Committee IMF - International Monetary Fund INPEL - Independent National Patriotic Front of Liberia IO - International Organization IPA - Interim Political Authority LCC - Liberian Council of Churches LCCI - Lesotho Chamber of Commerce and Industry LCD - Lesotho Congress of Democracy Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LCN - Lesotho Council of Non-Govemmental Organizations LCP - Lesotho Congress Party LDF - Lesotho Defence Force LLA - Lesotho Liberation Army LNCM - Lesotho Network for Conflict Management LNTG - Liberian National Transitional Government LPC - Liberian Peace Council LPF - Lesotho Paramilitary Force MCPMR - Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution MFP - Marematlou Freedom Party MINURCA - UN Mission in the Central African Republic MISAB - Mission Inter-Africaine de Surveillance de 1’Application des Accords de Bangui MPLC - Central African People’s Liberation Party MRND - Mouvement Revolutionnaire National pour le Developpement NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization NEPAD - New Partnership for Africa’s Development NGOs - Non-Govemmental Organization NIF - Neutral International Force NMCL - National Muslim Council of Liberia NMOG - Neutral Military Observer Group NMOG - Neutral Observer Group NPFL - National Patriotic Front of Liberia NRA - National Resistance Army OAU - Organization of African Unity OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OMEB - Observer Mission in Burundi PANDA - Protocol for the Assessment PARMEHUTU- Partie de 1’Emancipation du People Hutu PDD-25 - Presidential Decision Directive 25 PIOOM - Interdisciplinary Research Program on Root Causes of Human Rights Violations Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. PRC People’s Redemption Council RPA Rwandan Patriotic Army RPF Rwandan Patriotic Front RTLMC Radio Television Libre des Milles Collines RUF Revolutionary United Front SADC Southern African Development Community SANDF South African National Defence Force SMC Standing Mediation Committee ULIMO United
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