Alternatives Paper Appendix D Auckland CBD Rail Link Business Case Prepared for KiwiRail and ARTA

By APB&B

19th November 2010

Revision History

Revision Nº Prepared By Description Date David Adams & Simon V5 Final Draft 24 August 2010 Wood 24 September V6 Duncan Chadwick Aligned with draft Business Case 2010 Final additions to align with draft 20 October V6b Duncan Chadwick Business Case 2010 Final Issue following Client 19 November Final Duncan Chadwick Endorsement 2010

Document Acceptance

Action Name Signed Date Prepared by Team

19 November Reviewed by Simon wood 2010

19 November Approved by David Adams 2010 on behalf of APB&B

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 1 PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER 12

1.1 OUTLINE OF THE PAPER 12 2 UNLOCKING GROWTH THROUGH TRANSPORT INVESTMENT IN THE AUCKLAND CBD14

2.1 THE SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF THE 2041 TRANSPORT TASK 14 2.2 CURRENT TRANSPORT NETWORK CAPACITY 19 2.2.1 Road 19 2.2.2 Rail 20 2.2.3 Bus 20 2.3 SUMMARY 21 3 BACKGROUND & ASSUMPTIONS 22

3.1 AUCKLAND POPULATION GROWTH IN A NEW ZEALAND CONTEXT 22 3.2 AUCKLAND EMPLOYMENT IN A NATIONAL CONTEXT 24 3.3 SCOPE AND ROLE OF THE CBD 25 3.3.1 Scope of the CBD 26 3.3.2 Role of the CBD 26 3.4 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN A POLICY CONTEXT 29 3.5 THE IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE IN AUCKLAND AND THE CBD 31 4 COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF TRANSPORT MEASURES 33

4.1 TRAVEL DEMAND MEASURES 34 4.1.1 Flexible Working Hours 35 4.1.2 Telecommuting 36 4.1.3 Satellite Offices/Places of Learning 36 4.1.4 Walking 37 4.1.5 Cycling 37 4.1.6 Role of Travel Demand Measures 39 4.2 INCREASED RELIANCE ON PRIVATE CAR USAGE AND ROAD NETWORK EXPANSION 39 4.2.1 Increased Private Car Usage (Current Capacity) 39 4.2.2 Increased Road Capacity for Cars 40 4.2.3 Outlook for roads and private vehicles as a transport solution 41 PUBLIC TRANSPORT ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED 41 4.3 INCREASED FERRY USAGE 41 4.4 INCREASED BUS USAGE 42 4.4.1 Background – Previous Studies CBD 43 4.4.2 2041 Bus Demand Without CBD Rail Link 43 4.4.3 Bus Capacity to the CBD 45 4.5 INCREASED BUS USAGE – ON SURFACE CAPACITY IMPROVEMENTS 47 4.5.1 Description 47 4.5.2 Constraints to BRT 47 4.5.3 Rerouting and Through Routing 48 4.5.4 Infrastructure Requirements 49 4.5.5 Operational Evaluation 50 4.5.6 Strategic Evaluation 50 4.6 INCREASED BUS USAGE – CBD BUS LOOP 50

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4.6.1 Option Description 50 4.6.2 Examples and Learnings 50 4.6.3 Constraints 51 4.6.4 Two Options 52 4.6.5 Rerouting and Through Routing 52 4.6.6 Operating Assumptions 53 4.6.7 Infrastructure Requirements 54 4.6.8 Operational Evaluation 54 4.6.9 Strategic Evaluation 54 4.7 INCREASED BUS USAGE – BUS TUNNELS 54 4.7.1 Description 54 4.7.2 Examples and Learnings 55 4.7.3 Operating Assumptions 58 4.7.4 Central Area Bus Tunnel Specification 59 4.7.5 Operational Evaluation 61 4.7.6 Strategic Evaluation 63 4.8 LIGHT RAIL 63 4.9 BRITOMART EXPANSION 64 4.9.1 Capacity of Existing Auckland Rail Network 64 4.9.2 Description 66 4.9.3 Infrastructure Requirements 67 4.9.4 Operational Evaluation 68 4.9.5 Strategic Evaluation 68 4.10 CBD RAIL LINK 69 4.10.1 Description 69 4.10.2 Route Selection 71 4.10.3 Impacts of CBD Rail Link 72 4.10.4 Operational Evaluation 73 4.10.5 .Infrastructure Requirements 74 5 ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 75

5.1 IDENTIFICATION OF ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 75 5.2 DESCRIPTION OF ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 75 5.2.1 Strategic Fit 75 5.2.2 Patronage 76 5.2.3 Cost 76 5.2.4 Benefit 76 5.3 RANKING SCALE 77 5.4 WEIGHTINGS 77 6 EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 79

6.1 THE VIABLE SET OF ALTERNATIVES 79 6.2 SUMMARY OF RANKING 80 6.2.1 Support the growth and development of the CBD 80 6.2.2 Optimise patronage 81 6.2.3 Minimise costs 81 6.2.4 Environmental sustainability 82 6.2.5 Strategic fit 82 7 COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS 85

7.1 SUMMARY 85

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7.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND PARAMETERS 86 7.3 COST ASSESSMENT 86 8 DESCRIPTION OF BENEFITS 87

8.1 CONVENTIONAL TRANSPORT BENEFITS 87 8.2 WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS 87 8.3 NON-TRANSPORT BENEFITS 88 9 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 89

9.1 MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS 89 9.2 COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS 89 9.3 QUALITATIVE BENEFITS 90 9.4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 90 APPENDIX A. AUCKLAND REGION POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS 93 Aging Population 98 Internal Migration 100 Natural Increase 100 Overseas Arrivals 102 Employment 104

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Executive Summary

This Alternatives paper forms part of the Business Case documentation for the Auckland CBD Rail Link project, and responds to stakeholder feedback following the Business Case Stakeholder workshop held in May 2010. It also satisfies the principles required for the Stage 1 deliverable for the Capital Asset Management Framework (CAM).

Transport Challenges of Auckland Population Growth

The transport problem addressed in this paper considers how to unlock Auckland‘s growth potential by alleviating transport constraints into and within the CBD. In real terms Auckland is currently estimated to account for 36% of New Zealand‘s Gross Domestic Product and contains 32%, of the country‘s jobs (by employment count). By itself, the CBD area contains 13% of the region‘s jobs and 26% of employment in Auckland City.

Current transport networks feeding the CBD are either already congested (roads) or have capacity restrictions which will prevent them offering longer term solutions in their current form (bus and rail). Limits on the current network can be identified by:

 Congestion on the road network from greater traffic volumes has increased from 0.59 minutes per kilometre in 2002 to 0.88 minutes per kilometre by 2009. Increasing congestion suggests that capacity has already been reached on the road network.

 On the rail network, the Britomart terminus is the constraint, limiting the number of train paths into and out of the CBD. ARTA‘s post DART and electrification peak period electric train timetable consists of 20 tph in and out of Britomart during Peak periods, comprised of 6 tph on each of the Southern, Western and Eastern routes, together with 2 tph from Onehunga. Thus by 2013, almost all of the useable train paths into and out of Britomart will be in use, providing virtually no room to add additional services in future.

 The performance of the bus network is largely tied to ongoing traffic congestion on the road network and the constraints imposed by the narrow streets with the CBD. Using a maximum desired lane capacity of 100 buses per hour for CBD streets, then the majority of key inner city routes reach capacity between now (2010) and 2020. This is based upon Option C PTIS routing and single lanes operating across most of the CBD.

The above implies that the capacity to meet future transport demands into the CBD will be very limited beyond 2020. Maximising the efficiency of existing infrastructure also maximises investment return, but additional capacity needs to added to maintain the effectiveness of infrastructure when current capacity is reached. Ongoing population growth will place more demands on transport infrastructure. Future projections show that out to 2041 the region‘s population will increase from 1.3 million currently to about 2.1 million, with a further 200,000 increase projected out to 2051. This means that over the next 45 years another 1 million people will make Auckland their home.

Ministry of Transport statistics show that trends for private vehicle ownership have been relatively stable in Auckland and average about 640 private vehicles per 1,000 people. If per capita private car ownership remains stable over the next 45 years, then the level of population growth could result in more than half a million additional vehicles on the region‘s road networks, even with more of the population living within the inner city environments.

What is more, this only covers private vehicles and has not counted light fleet vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles, which will also grow in number as the regional economy, and therefore the freight task, expands. The region‘s road network, even with the current and planned road building, would not be

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able to accommodate the additional demands placed upon it without significant further additional capacity being provided.

Population distribution also creates transport challenges. The distribution of population across the region is impacted by the regional and territorial local authority land use policies. Land use projections prepared as part of the 2010 Regional Land Transport Strategy indicate that the usually resident population and employment within the CBD will increase to 102,000 and 122,000 respectively by 2041.

Even with relatively high CBD population forecasts, the additonal trips into the CBD in the AM peak will increase by 48,000 by 2041. The complexity of handling this increase is compounded by the multi- directional nature of these trips, with the growth originating from the north, west and south/east. New capacity will clearly be needed and recent government guidelines point to investment maximising existing infrastructure as a priority.

Transport Alternatives

The paper describes a comprehensive long list of transport alternatives for providing sufficient transport capacity into and within the CBD to meet the challenge. These alternatives were scored using a range of assessment criteria with both uniform and non-uniform weightings. Table E-1 summarises the assessment. The two highest scoring alternatives both require significant new underground infrastructure,with the CBD Rail Link with 3 stations being ranked highest for both sets of weights, while the Central Area Bus Tunnel with 3 stations is rated second highest.

Table E-1: Summary Multi-Criteria Assessment of Alternatives Alternatives Uniform Weight Non- Uniform Weights On Surface Bus Route Improvements 1.64 1.52 Central Area Bus Tunnel- 3 Stations 2.27 2.23 Expanded Britomart Terminus 1.64 1.67 CBD Rail Link-3 Stations 2.73 2.58

On surface bus route improvements and an expanded Britomart terminus both have lower scores than the two projects requiring significant new infrastructure because they do not offer a significant enough step change in capacity improvements to mitigate the current congested state of CBD transport networks. This means that the CBD Rail Link and the Central Area Bus Tunnel are not likely to be the lowest whole of life cost options, but score more highly on other measures. This includes optimising patronage on the network by providing additional infrastructure that provides greater service flexibility, improving environmental sustainability by helping to remove single occupancy vehicle trips from the network, better strategic fit with regional plans and strategies, and supportive of the development of the CBD.

CBD Rail Link

This alternative entails constructing an approximately 3.5 km double track underground rail line beneath the central business district from Britomart to the Western (North Auckland Line) near the existing Mount Eden Station (Figure E -1). Britomart would become a ‗through‘ station and up to three intermediate underground stations are proposed:  Aotea  Karangahape Rd  Newton Eastern and Western connections with the North Auckland Line at Mt Eden are proposed, which would enable a number of service patterns to be operated, such as joining existing eastern and western routes ,

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or operating existing services in a loop around the CBD before returning to their origin point. An orbital city loop service would also be a possibility.

The theoretical maximum throughput of the CBD Rail Link is between 15 and 30 trains per hour in both direction (depending on the signalling system configuration), which with 6 car electric trains, corresponds to between 23,100 and 46,200 passengers per hour. The achieveable capacity will depend however on both the capacity of the existing rail network beyond the CBD Rail Link and the available rolling stock fleet.

Figure E-1 Proposed CBD Rail Link Alignment and Station Locations

The CBD Rail Link unlocks the constraint on the rail network imposed by Britomart acting as a terminus rather than a through station. The current Auckland passenger rail system comprises four routes, totalling approximately 110 kilometres of line with 41 stations. The addition of the Manukau City Branch line and restoration of services to Huapai in 2011 will expand the passenger network to 113 km and 44 stations. The CBD Rail Link capitalises on this existing infrastructure by releasing the latent capacity in the rail network, that increases the number of train paths going into the CBD and allows more trains per hour and different service patterns to match demand across Auckland‘s geography.

Population growth in the central, southern and western areas of Auckland implies that the increased rail services will reach around 70% of the region‘s future population, providing 30 minute trip access to the CBD to a significant number of these people. The CBD Rail Link also provides a fillip for the growth plans associated with high density development around the rail stations at New Lynne, Panmure, Henderson and Manukau; capitalising on growth that has already been achieved at those locations. The combination

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of increased service frequencies and high density development around stations enables a larger growth catchment to be achieved for the Rapid Transit Network.

The CBD Rail Link also removes buses from the central CBD originating from the west, south and east, freeing up access for buses on northern routes, which are not serviced by rail. The CBD Rail Link does not preclude the future development of northern rail infrastructure and would provide an important link in any future north bound rail infrastructure. Removing bus traffic in the CBD is consistent with local planning for a vibrant CBD that is pedestrian and cyclist friendly whilst maintaining greater regional connectivity and retaining linkages between CBD and the waterfront.

Central Area Bus Tunnel

This alternative entails construction of approximately 3km of double lane bus tunnel under the CBD connecting the Newton area to the Harbour Bridge (Figure E-2). Buses on the key north-south corridors would enter the tunnel outside the CBD motorway network. The tunnel would have access from McKinnon Drive and Khyber Pass Road (at its southern end) and Fanshawe Street at its northern end. Three underground CBD area Bus stations would be provided; Wynyard, Civic and Symonds Street.

The Bus Tunnel would remove some 534 bus movements per hour (equivalent to a maximum capacity of around 37,000 passengers per hour) from the surface streets. However up to 100 buses per hour would remain on the surface, operating via Fanshawe Street, Britomart and Symonds Street, stopping at a restructured Britomart bus station and also serving the University, as well as 30 buses per hour in Queen Street.

Figure E-2: Central Area Bus Tunnel With 3 Stations

CBD Bus tunnel Tunnel length approx. 3 km

2- lane Bus tunnel Surface bus distributor Underground bus station

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In order to achieve the required bus throughput that the Central Area Bus Tunnel would be capable of delivering, extensive provision of both grade separated bus ways in the CBD Fringe as well as bus priority (―Quality Bus Lanes‖) measures further out from the CBD would be needed (Figure E-3). This level of bus infrastructure provision is significantly greater than currently planned and would also involve more tunnel infrastructure, such as a 30 metre vent stack at the end of Britomart.

Figure E-3: Required Extension of Bus Infrastructure to Support a CBD Bus Tunnel

Bus tunnel

Busway

Quality Bus lane

Currently planned Quality Bus Lane

The key issue for investment in dedicated bus infrastructure is that there is currently very little dedicated bus infrastructure in existence in Auckland and what there is remains geographically isolated on the North Shore. Therefore, there is very little leverage obtainable from the 10 kilometres of dedicated busway with 5 stations for enhanced CBD infrastructure, which is contrasted with the depth of infrastructure that becomes more accessible through the CBD Rail Link.

Investment in bus public transport and road infrastructure has already been made on the routes around the central area feeding into the CBD, such as Newmarket, Dominion Road, Mt Eden and Sandringham Road. The Central Area bus tunnel would initially leverage off these investments, but eventually traffic growth on the surface networks will degrade these investments and more will be required maintain service levels. This will have impact upon local communities in terms of road widening, grade separation at intersections in terms of more space being required and more local disruption while network modifications are made.

Cost Effectiveness Assessment

The two highest ranked alternatives from the Multi- Criteria Assessment were then ranked in terms of cost effectiveness.

The CBD Rail Link with 3 stations has present costs of $1,520m, which is approximately 60% of the present cost of $2,640m for the Central Area Bus Tunnel with 3 stations.

Table E-2 shows that these rankings are not sensitive to the choice of discount rate – lower discount rates favour the CBD Rail Link more strongly over the bus tunnel, because the rail and bus tunnels are assumed to have similar construction periods.

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Table E-2 Sensitivities ($m PV, 2010 terms) Central Bus CBD Rail Link Ratio of CBD Discount rate tunnel with 3 with 3 Stations Rail / Bus tunnel Stations 4% real $2,230 $3,750 59%

6% real $1,820 $3,120 58%

8% real $1,520 $2,640 58%

This paper does not seek to quantify the benefits of either the CBD Rail Link with three stations or the Central Area Bus Tunnel with three stations. However, on the basis that both alternatives are equally effective at delivering the required extra capacity into the CBD from a strategic perspective, establishes a simplifying assumption that the underlying benefits of both are comparable. Therefore the benefit / cost ratio of the CBD rail link is approximately 1.7 times higher than that of the Central Area Bus Tunnel - inversely proportional because the costs of rail are approximately 60% of those associated with the bus tunnel.

Discussion and Conclusions

On the basis of the calculations in this paper, the CBD Rail Link clearly outperforms the Central Area Bus Tunnel option by a factor of approximately 1.7, or 1.5 times if the cost of a North Shore bus connection is included with the rail option.

The multi-criteria analysis also ranks the Rail Link more highly. Fit with the assessment criteria in section 5 and applied in section 6 indicates that the Central Area Bus Tunnel struggles to stay competitive. The initial modelling of trips by mode shown in section 2.1 gives an indication of the issues. In a bus unconstrained environment (holding car trip growth constant) then bus trips increase significantly with relatively smaller growth in rail trips (see Figure 2-3). Contrast this with the rail tunnel investment, which unlocks the potential for additional rail trips, but also enables continued growth on the bus network (see Figure 2-4).

From a strategic perspective, this implies that the CBD Rail Link provides not only the capacity necessary to meet a significant proportion of future transport demand into the CBD, but also assists with the growth across othe modes. Looking at the evaluation criteria used in this paper, the differences are sufficiently noticeable. Contrast between the two can be summarised as:

 The CBD Rail Link being more effective at improving journey times because it operates in its own corridor, whereas the Central Bus Tunnel would require access to the wider road network

 Non-transport benefits, such as urban development, are likely to be greater for the CBD Rail Link than the Central Bus Tunnel because the permanency of the rail infrastructure positively influences development. This development is likely to also be a factor further out along the rail corridor around station developments in Panmure and New Lynn.

 While both the CBD Rail Link and Central Bus Tunnel score well for patronage optimisation, the CBD Rail Link will ultimately do better because of the freeing up of existing capacity in the rail network and the segregated nature of this corridor, compared to the bus network‘s reliance on existing road infrastructure.

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 Because of the reliance on the wider road network, the Central Bus Tunnel cannot score better on cost minimisation – it would require ongoing investment in the road system to maintain the benefit stream over time. This would include a programme of grade separated intersections, bus priority lanes and other measures, otherwise the bus tunnel speed and reliability would succumb to road congestion over time.

 The electric train fleet to be used on the rail networks also confer environmental benefit advantages over the bus tunnel, in spite of improvements in emissions standards and the possibility over time of alternatively powered buses being used on the network.

 In terms of the RLTS 2010 strategic priorities, the CBD Rail Link would provide better congestion management (as opposed to replacing cars with buses) and therefore limit the need for additional road building in an already heavily land constrained area. The CBD Rail Link is also better at supporting compact urban development, with overseas evidence suggesting the emergence of dense urban mixed-use development occurring around stations.

 The spread of investment across different transport types that the CBD Rail Link reduces Auckland‘s current reliance on the road network and therefore helps to mitigate risks to the transport network posed by natural (e.g. weather related) and man-made (e.g. accidents and high fuel prices) events. This would ensure continuity of access to the CBD and minimise any possible transport-related interruptions to the city‘s economic activity.

Interpreting the two different assessment methods in conjunction with each other, while holding the benefits attributable to both schemes broadly equivalent, genuinely shows the potential superiority of the CBD Rail Link. What is more, the CBD Rail Link would be investment that maximises the use of present infrastructure – not just in terms of rail, but is also complementary to other modes (and in all likelihood improves the return on investment from them as well).

A large part of the cost and performance advantage of the CBD Rail Link is due to the project releasing latent capacity currently residing in the rail network, which is unable to be realised due to the capacity constraints of the Britomart Terminus. In contrast, the bus tunnel option has to be built from scratch, and requires further investment out into the wider Auckland network to continue to deliver the benefits of the original investment. This accounts for the higher infrastructure and operational expenditure of the bus tunnel option compared to the rail option and therefore its lower performance.

Overall, the CBD Rail Link tunnel with three stations is the best option to carry forward into the detailed business case. The CBD Rail Link unlocks existing capacity in the rail network and leverages off the substantial network infrastructure associated with 113 kilometres of track and 44 stations following the addition of the Manukau line and restoration of services to Huapai in 2011. By operating in its own dedicated corridor, further development of the rail network is not invasive on the road network in the way that ramping up dedicated bus infrastructure would be over the long term. The CBD Rail Link would also be more consistent with the development objectives sought for the CBD and waterfront areas, while supporting high density development at key nodes further out into Auckland.

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1 Purpose of This Paper

This paper on alternatives forms part of the Business Case documentation for the Auckland CBD Rail Link project, and responds to stakeholder feedback following the Business Case Stakeholder workshop held in May 2010.

However, the paper also satisfies the principles required for the Stage 1 deliverable for the Capital Asset Management Framework (CAM), even though the CAM framework was released after the Business case workshop in May. It sits between the Stage 0 deliverable from the CAM framework (Strategic Fit‘, which will be included in the Business Case paper) and the Stage 2 deliverable, which is essentially the detailed ‗Business Case‘ paper.

The paper identifies a comprehensive list of alternative ways of meeting the strategic objectives set out in the problem statement in section 2.1:

 facilitation of population and employment growth forecasts as set out in the Auckland Regional Land Transport Strategy1, noting that some alternatives are less likely to facilitate growth;

 qualitative assessment of benefits using a list of criteria; and

 cost effectiveness assessment of the two alternatives ranked highest in qualitative terms.

No quantitative estimation of benefits has been undertaken as part of this paper, as in order to simplify the assessment within the time available for preparing the paper, it has been assumed that the highest ranking alternatives are equally capable of providing the additional CBD Transport capacity. Full quantified benefit/ cost evaluation will be undertaken in the Detailed Business Case, as per Phase 2 CAM principles.

1.1 Outline of the paper

This paper is divided into the following sections to present a logical process for identifying potential options for supplying high capacity transport links to the CBD in accordance with the region‘s land use and transport strategies:

 Section 2 outlines the size and complexity of the 2041 Auckland Transport Task and defines the problem statement for the paper.

 Section 3 of the paper summarises the population and employment forecasts that are the basis for assessment of the transport task, and clarifies the problem statement.

 Section 4 presents a long list of alternatives for meeting the strategic objectives.

 Section 5 presents the assessment framework, which comprises the list of criteria to be used for qualitative assessment and the ranking scheme.

 Section 6 reports the qualitative ranking and shortlists two alternatives.

 Section 7 ranks the two shortlisted alternatives in terms of cost effectiveness, in terms of both capital and operating/ maintenance costs.

1 http://www.arc.govt.nz/transport/regional-land-transport-strategy-2005/regional-land-transport-strategy.cfm

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 Section 8 describes benefits for four shortlisted alternatives.

 Section 9 summarises the various rankings and discusses conclusions.

The analysis developed in the sections above is supported by additional material contained in one annex:

 Annex A provides supplementary information on Auckland population and employment growth trends

The objective of this paper is to identify a sequence of potential transport investments and actions aimed at delivering improved capacity and linkages between the CBD and the parts of Auckland contained on the isthmus. The paper undertakes high level cost analysis and qualitative approach to assessing benefits in order to separate out serious alternative contenders that could best provide for the desired improvements to capacity and links.

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2 Unlocking Growth Through Transport Investment in the Auckland CBD This section discusses how investment in public transport networks in the Auckland CBD enables future growth in the area, with beneficial spill overs for enabling growth across the wider Auckland region and for New Zealand. It also explains the rationale behind this paper and provides a description of the flow of logic across the following sections.

2.1 The Size and Complexity of the 2041 Transport Task

To clarify the size of the problem facing the transport task in Auckland requires understanding both the population trend and future employment growth within the region. Over the next 45 years an additional 1 million people are projected to make the Auckland region home. Assuming current private vehicle ownership per capita ratios2 remain relatively constant in the future, this could imply an additional half a million private vehicles on Auckland roads, even with greater densification more inner city living.

The age distribution of the population is also an important factor which, along with the strongest population growth in New Zealand, will heavily influence the performance of the transport network. Currently the region‘s population profile is younger than that for New Zealand on average and is expected to stay that way over the projection period – the median age in 2031 in Auckland is expected to be just under 38, compared with over 40 years for New Zealand. A younger population implies a greater share of the working age population being located in Auckland relative to the rest of New Zealand, which places more emphasis on Auckland driving productivity and economic growth. Making the most of the region‘s human capital resources will require a transport network that can efficiently and effectively connect commuting workers with employment opportunities.

Such population growth, particularly in the working age elements, and the potential increases in vehicle numbers would place additional significant peak period commuting demands on Auckland‘s transport network. These demands are unlikely to be met by investment in the road network alone, if sufficient area could be found in the city to accommodate additional road development at reasonable cost. Therefore, road capacity could not be built fast enough to accommodate all potential private vehicle traffic on the 2041 network.

Land use strategies, such as that prescribed under Auckland‘s Regional Growth Strategy and its associated Regional Land Transport Strategy (RLTS 2010), would focus employment growth around key centres. The current size and dominance of the CBD as an employment location and its role as a driver of economic activity mean that it has the critical mass to allow it to keep growing and the official regional land use policies would reinforce this.

Employment within the CBD is also relatively stable to growing, which has implications for the consistency of trips into the CBD in terms of the frequency and regularity of people moving into and out of the CBD at certain times of the day. Movements of employee locations within the CBD may have been induced by the redevelopment of parts of the waterfront area and by the presence of the Britomart transport terminus. Opening the CBD area up to better public transport access, particularly with the development of more stations, could potentially facilitate further development over more of the CBD, thus maximising the potential of its land area. Further development within this area would be consistent with the aims of the Regional Land Transport Strategy (2010) for concentrating growth in key commercial areas.

2 See http://www.transport.govt.nz/ourwork/TMIF/Pages/TV035.aspx for the ratios

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Recent trends towards central city living are reflected in land use strategies and imply that resident population growth in the CBD would place some limit on the number of trips coming into the CBD due to people living and working within the area (self containment). Examining the RLTS land use scenario as a strategic case study (see section 3.5) highlights these growth pressures and what they mean for the transport network in 2041.

The RLTS land use scenario employed in this paper assumes the following growth in CBD population and employment, based upon population and employment projections:

 CBD population growing from about 17,000 in 2006 to 102,000 in 2041 – a growth of 500 %

 CBD employment growing from about 63,000 in 2006 to 122,000 in 2041 – a growth of 94 %

With population projected to grow at a much higher rate than employment, there will be a marked increase in the number of work trips made inside the CBD. The 2006 census data indicated that about 45 % of CBD residents worked in the CBD. As both CBD population and employment grows, it is likely that this proportion will increase as more CBD workers choose to live in the CBD. A proportion of 55 % was assumed for 2041 (by comparison, the proportion in the Sydney CBD is almost 60 %). Applying these parameters leads to an estimated increase in the number of trips into the CBD in the morning peak, as shown in Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1: Estimated Change in Morning Peak CBD Trips Under the RLTS Land Use to 2041

180.0

160.0

140.0

120.0 74.7

100.0 47.8 2041

80.0 2006/07 Number (000s)Number

60.0

40.0 75.8 79.8

20.0 26.9

- 4.0 External to CBD Internal to CBD Total to CBD Source: ARTA and APB&B calculations Under the RLTS scenario, total trips into and around the CBD area nearly double from the estimated 80,000 trips in 2006/07 to 155,000 trips in the 2041 period. The large increase in internal trips within the CBD from 4,000 to 31,000 by 2041 is reflective of the population growth and the internal dynamics of the resident CBD population. The Census 2006 data revealed significant proportions of the core CBD population are within the working age category of 15-64 years old and median ages below the average for Auckland, which is a trend that is likely to continue.

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The youthful profile of internal residents is likely to generate trips that involve active modes, but could also involve use of more public transport to commute across the CBD. Currently, about 80 % of CBD residents walk or cycle to work. Based on the estimates outlined in the preceding section, the number of CBD residents walking or cycling to work in the CBD will increase by about 700 %. Additionally, there will be a major increase in people walking into the CBD from the Britomart rail station and from CBD bus stops.

These major increases will need to be accommodated on internal streets by way of footpath widening (such as that implemented recently in Queen Street) and increased pedestrian priority at signals (such as the ―Barnes dances‖ used in Queen Street and other locations). There may also be a desire to create dedicated cycle facilities such as those being implemented in Sydney CBD. In combination, the increased dedication of street space and intersection capacity to pedestrians and cyclists limits the ability to increase the number of cars and buses in the CBD.

The origin of external trips into the CBD is shown in Figure 2-2, which shows how the increase to 124,000 trips into the CBD in 2041 (from 76,000 in 2006/07) is distributed around Auckland.

Figure 2-2: Origin of 2041 External Trips Into the CBD in the AM peak

60.0

50.0 19.3

40.0

18.6 30.0 2041 2006/07

Number of Trips (000s) Trips of Number 20.0 9.9 37.3

23.1 10.0 15.4

- North West South / East Source: ARTA and APB&B calculations Strong trip growth is generated from the north of the CBD from the North Shore area and its surrounds, with trips increasing from 23,000 to 42,000 in the 2041 AM peak. This is an interesting result given the population growth on the North Shore is expected to increase by about 100,000 people out to 2051 (under Statistics New Zealand projections) and for the area to have a proportionately older population profile than other areas of Auckland, particularly in contrast with the central and southern areas.

The increase could be attributed to changes in land use around the northern parts of Auckland under the RLTS, but also to the demographic profile of residents on the North Shore. The 2006 census reveals that the North Shore tends to attract people with higher levels of qualifications, that

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have higher incomes and also a greater proportion working in occupations that fit with the predominant industries located within the CBD.

Northern trip growth is matched by that coming from the South and East of the CBD, which are projected to be the areas of Auckland with the most population growth (see Figure 3-6). Growth from the southern and eastern areas is expected to reach 56,500 trips in the AM peak in 2041, up from 37,000 in the 2006/07 period. When this is combined with another 10,000 trips in the AM peak originating out of western areas, the capacity increase and the additional coordination required on the transport network grows exponentially in response to the increased demand and the complexity associated with multiple directions.

These factors would impose critical constraints on the existing configuration of the transport network Without further investment to cope with the projected additional demand, the increased traffic poses significant reliability risks on the network. However, there is also portfolio risk to consider, where over-investment in one type of transport infrastructure at the expense of others could lead to an unbalanced transport configuration. This is the opposite of the Regional Land Transport Strategy objective of promoting balance in service provision and imposes a larger overall failure risk with too much reliance on one single mode. In this respect the Auckland of tomorrow would be little different from the Auckland of today which has a heavy over-reliance on the availability of road space to deal with large volumes of single occupancy vehicles during peak commuting times.

Note that in the scenario testing undertaken here it is assumed that future growth in trips by car to the CBD will be limited by the capacity of streets in the CBD and surrounding areas. As the CBD population and employment grows there will be more demand for bus and pedestrian priority at signals and amenity improvements such as footpath widening which will gives no opportunity for increase road capacity for cars. An allowance has been made for a modest growth in trips by car of about 11 % based on small increases in average car occupancy and a limited amount of peak spreading. Table 2-1 provides an indicative breakdown of future mode share by CBD approach direction for the base year (2006/07) and the two future growth scenarios.

Table 2-1: Percentage changes in mode share between 2006 and 2041

Indicative mode shares by direction 2006/07 2041 Bus growth unconstrained 2041 Rail growth unconstrained Mode North West South/East North West South/East North West South/East Bus 26% 27% 31% 51% 33% 41% 51% 13% 20% Train 0% 11% 7% 0% 23% 11% 0% 48% 28% Ferry 15% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% Car 59% 54% 54% 37% 36% 39% 37% 31% 42% Active 0% 8% 8% 0% 8% 9% 0% 7% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% The table highlights key assumptions regarding the ability for bus and rail to accommodate growth for each direction:

 Rail mode is not available to people travelling to the CBD from the North – in both scenarios limited car growth results in a major increase in bus mode share from 26 % to 51 %

 Rail is likely to have a significant impact on mode share for travel from the West under both scenarios – rail mode share is assumed to increase to increase from a low base in 2006/07 of 11 % to about 23 % in the bus unconstrained case and 48 % in rail unconstrained case

 Rail is assumed to have a more modest impact on the South / East direction where some corridors, such as Domininon Road, will continue to rely on bus – rail mode share increases from 7 % in 2006/07 to 11 % in the bus unconstrained and 28 % in the rail unconstrained scenarios

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It should be emphasised here that these are indicative assumptions only intended to develop an understanding of the broad transport task associated with CBD growth.

In terms of physical trip numbers across modes, Figure 2-3 illustrates the growth across the differing transport modes on the basis that the CBD Rail does not go ahead, but that there is expansion in bus services to accommodate the additional 48,000 trips coming into the CBD in 2041. This potential mode split of commuting trips creates a lop-sided network which makes meeting Regional Land Transport Strategy objectives of balance, reliability, safety and mode choice harder to reach.

Figure 2-3: Mode Split Without the CBD Rail Link but Assuming Unconstrained Bus Growth

60.0

50.0

4.5

40.0 31.4

30.0 2041

2006/07 Number (000s)Number

20.0 42.0

10.0 21.6 7.8 2.8 1.3 4.2 3.5 4.5 - Bus Train Ferry Car Active Source: ARTA and APB&B calculations This has implications for how the additional buses would be managed through the CBD regardless of the investment (whether by tunnel or otherwise) put into enabling increased capacity for bus running. Buses on the surface of the CBD would also pose a risk in terms of the larger number of pedestrian commuters and the presence of more active modes sharing road space with a significantly larger vehicle.

With the CBD Rail Link, the mode distribution changes to reveal a more even balance, as shown in Figure 2-4. The rail network would be able to absorb an extra 25,000 trips in the AM peak, which complements the capacity in the bus network to provide balanced service provision, which more closely matches the strategic objectives of the Regional Land Transport Strategy.

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Figure 2-4: Mode Split in the 2041 is Peak for External trips into the CBD with the CBD Rail Link

60.0

50.0

4.5

40.0

30.0 2041 14.4

2006/07 Number (000s)Number

20.0 42.0 24.8

10.0 21.6

2.8 1.3 4.2 3.5 4.5 - Bus Train Ferry Car Active Source: ARTA and APB&B calculations The additional investment in the rail network spreads the travel demand load across the three large scale transit networks in Auckland. The additional mode share going to rail does not stop growth in the bus demand, which grows by 14,500 trips in the 2041 AM peak. The effect of more rail trips would be to not only help clear the marginal car off the road network, but would also relieve the CBD of some of its bus congestion from the south, east and west, allowing north originating (where a significant number of new trips come from) buses better access to the area.

2.2 Current Transport Network Capacity

This section summarises current capacity on transport networks into and around the CBD, which outlines the capability of the network to service the growth in employment and travel demands discussed above.

2.2.1 Road

Road network capacity is severely tested during the peak commuting periods in the mornings and afternoons. This is evidenced by growing congestion, measured as the average delay per kilometre in minutes3, which has risen 49% in the morning peak from 0.59 minutes per kilometre in March 2002 to 0.88 minutes per kilometre by March 2009. Peak spreading is also becoming an issue, with inter-peak delays increasing from 0.10 minutes per kilometre in 2002 to being nearly double at 0.19 minutes per kilometre by 2009.

3 See http://monitorauckland.arc.govt.nz/transport/transport-patterns/average-delay-per-kilometre.cfm which is gathered by ARC from an annual survey.

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2.2.2 Rail

Current rail network capacity is discussed in section 4.9.1. In the current set up the Britomart terminus is the constraint on the rail network because it effectively constrains the number of possible train paths entering the CBD. Even with improved signalling as part of the electrification programme, that improves accessibility on the approaches to Britomart, ARTA‘s post DART and electrification service timetable and plans means that by 2013, almost all of the useable train paths into and out of Britomart will be in use, providing virtually no room to add additional services in future.

2.2.3 Bus

Bus network constraints are different from those faced by the rail network. While rail has latent capacity within its own segregated corridor, buses share surface space with other modes, namely private vehicles, cyclists and pedestrians, competing for priority on the main corridors and, importantly, at at-grade intersections. Therefore, surface network constraints hold back the delivery of effective bus rapid transit services into the Auckland CBD. Previous investigations have shown that key CBD bus streets and facilities, including Fanshawe Street, Queen Street and Albert Street have limited capacity due to:

 A potential bottleneck on the Central Connector, at the intersection of Symonds Street, Karangahape Road and Grafton Bridge due to the motorway access

 Albert Street road widths and configuration limiting the potential for bus priority measures and bus bays

 Impacts on Victoria Park and developments fronting Fanshawe Street on the potential for bus stops to increase bus capacity of Fanshawe Street. Despite the Victoria Park tunnel project being expected to reduce traffic on Fanshawe Street, traffic generated by the Wynyard Quarter development would be likely to result in no effective reduction in private traffic in Fanshawe Street

 Limited capacity for additional bus priority in Hobson Street because of its role as a motorway connection and future increased traffic role in the CBD

 Limited capacity for buses in Queen Street including footpath widening, pedestrian-friendly signal phasing, and its designation as a Greenway in Council‘s Long Term Road Function Plan and reinforcement as a pedestrian-focused corridor in recent work by consultant Jan Gehl. A bus lane proposal for Queen Street was recently rejected because of perceived inconsistencies with its pedestrian function

 Limited capacity and effectiveness of city centre bus terminals and interchanges including Britomart interchange and Mid City to cater for increased service frequency

Current bus capacity into the CBD is complex to measure and it is difficult to ascertain when the maximum is reached. Using a number of assumptions, including accepted bus flow service volumes and lane capacities from the Transportation Research Board4, an assessment was carried out as to when bus services into the CBD would reach capacity. Observations were made assuming high operational efficiencies leading to levels of service similar to guidelines for arterial bus lanes (max 130 buses per hour). In reality service levels for CBD locations (100 buses per

4 See ―Transit Capacity and Quality Service Manual‖, 2003, Transportation Research Board.

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hour) may only be possible in some locations, with constraints on the inner city network appearing at:

 Fanshawe Street between Beaumont and Hobson Street would be at capacity in 2019

 Symonds Street between Karangahape Road and Wellesley Street will be at capacity by 2014

 Symonds Street between Khyber Pass Road and Karangahape Road will be at capacity by 2019

 Albert Street southbound, between Customs and Wellesley Streets would be at capacity by 2016

 Albert Street northbound, between Customs and Wellesley Streets would be at capacity by 2020

Maintenance of bus operations on CBD surface streets would require rerouting of buses within the CBD in response to identified capacity constraints. In some cases (such as for North Shore buses) this could potentially improve passenger servicing of the CBD (by providing more direct access to the Civic precinct) but in others (such as Central Connector services) there would be less effective servicing of the northern CBD.

Capacity Conclusions

The above implies that the capacity to meet future transport demands into the CBD will be very limited beyond 2020. Maximising the efficiency of existing infrastructure also maximises investment return, but additional capacity needs to added to maintain the effectiveness of infrastructure when current capacity is reached.

2.3 Summary

The conservative nature of the RLTS scenario has implications for more commuting trips into the CBD and therefore more pressure on the transport network. Such density encouraging land use policies will generate patterns of population and employment growth in the CBD that could stimulate transport network demand beyond what is planned for and therefore create upside risk for transport investment projects. These issues will need to be examined when looking at the evaluation of investment alternatives. Even minor deviations away from the land use patterns in the RLTS – and this is entirely possible5 – could drive CBD employment growth, and by implication transport demand, higher6. Transport network investment will have to take into account the potential for capacity increases beyond what has been planned for under a land use scenario such as that described by RLTS.

5 E.g. see the report ―Growing Smarter: an evaluation of the Auckland Regional Growth Strategy 1999‖. A technical report for the Auckland Regional Growth Forum, July 2007. The report indicates that while a good start has been made implementing the RGS, much development has occurred outside identified growth centres.

6 See ―Future Land Use and Transport Planning Project‖, Auckland Regional Council, April 2010. Both more compact and sprawl oriented scenarios generate higher CBD employment than that delivered under the RLTS scenario used in this report.

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3 Background & Assumptions

This section documents underlying assumptions and background information around population and employment growth in the Auckland region. Together, these two factors provide a measure of the rationale and purpose underpinning transport investment and the evaluation of project alternatives.

Around the world modern cities play key roles in shaping the economic landscapes of their respective countries. They harbour significant catchments of population and are hubs of considerable economic activity. Major cities create employment at a faster rate than outside areas and the output generated is often done so more productively on the back of greater concentrations of firms and industries.

In this regard, Auckland is no different to other cities around the world in fulfilling that role for New Zealand. The key to city performance is to find the right balance between population and firm/employment growth, increasing city size and densification, and being able to unlock the economic benefits associated with this concentration. This is Auckland‘s paramount challenge going forward, and is reliant upon finding a workable transport solution that liberates existing latent capacity in the network. This will be critical for future city development, and population and employment growth under the region‘s preferred land use strategy.

3.1 Auckland Population Growth in a New Zealand Context

The Auckland region has been the driver of New Zealand‘s population growth over the 20 year period between 1986 and 2006, covering five censuses, as shown in Figure 3-1.

Figure 3-1: Population Trends in Auckland

4,500,000

4,000,000

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000 Rest of NZ

Auckland Total Population Total 1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Census Period Source: Statistics New Zealand Over this time period, Auckland‘s population has gone from 874,000 to 1.3 million and comprises 32% of New Zealand‘s total population. Natural increases in population and immigration have been

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the main drivers of population growth, outweighing small losses of population to other regions of New Zealand. Around 40% of migrants moving to New Zealand choose the Auckland region as their destination, with Auckland City and Manukau City being the most preferred locations.

This has driven the compound annual average growth rate in Auckland at 2% per annum over the past 20 years, well ahead of the growth rate in the rest of New Zealand (0.7% per annum). Such population growth has also been accompanied by growth in the light passenger vehicle fleet7, which grown from 667,000 vehicles in 2000 to 837,000 vehicles in 2009. This is annual average growth over the 9 year period of 2.6% p.a., which is faster than population growth. The combined length of local roads and state highway networks in the Auckland region amounted to 8,206 kilometres, which means that there are now 102 cars per kilometre of road network, excluding other vehicles, such as motorcycles, light commercial and heavy good vehicles (which would add another 133,000 vehicles in the 2009 year). While this is a relatively simple ratio, it does highlight the congestion issues faced on the road network at particular points and at certain times of the day.

Long-term population projections prepared by Statistics New Zealand on behalf of Auckland Regional Council indicate this trend continuing, as illustrated in Figure 3-2.

Figure 3-2: Long-term Growth Trends for the Auckland Region

6000

5000

4000

3000 Rest of NZ

Auckland Numbers (000s)Numbers 2000

1000

0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Source: Auckland Regional Council and Statistics NZ Five-yearly projection intervals

The medium series population projections show Auckland‘s population continuing to grow from 1.3 million in 2006 to 2.3 million by 2051, comprising 42% of New Zealand‘s total population. The study period for the CBD rail project goes out to 2041, by which time Auckland‘s population will be 2.1

7 See http://www.transport.govt.nz/ourwork/TMIF/Pages/TV004.aspx for the supporting data

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million people and comprise 40% of the national population. On this medium population projection, Auckland is expected to add another one million people in the next 45 years.

Growth is only one aspect of the population factor‘s impact upon transport, with the other being the distribution of the population around Auckland. Over the past 20 years, the areas of Auckland showing the largest absolute increases in population have occurred in the central (Auckland City) and southern (Manukau City) areas of the region. This trend is likely to continue as the projections in Figure 3-3 highlight.

The chart clearly shows the expectations are for both Auckland City and Manukau City to keep growing strongly; however Manukau will be the fastest growing area in the region and will be the size of Auckland City by 2051.

Figure 3-3: Medium Series Population Projections for Auckland Local Authorities

700,000

600,000

500,000

Rodney 400,000 North Shore Waitakere Auckland City Population 300,000 Manukau Papakura Franklin 200,000

100,000

- 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Source: ARC and Statistics NZ Both North Shore City and Waitakere City, which are both sources of large commuter flows into the CBD and central city area, are both projected to grow (albeit more slowly than Auckland City and Manukau) to the point where they have 50% more people residing in these areas by 2051. These distributional trends across greater Auckland will continue to present transport challenges for the region.

3.2 Auckland Employment in a National Context

Auckland comprises a significant proportion of New Zealand‘s total economic activity. Auckland Regional Council estimates the region‘s value added at about $48 billion in real terms8, which is just

8 See http://monitorauckland.arc.govt.nz/our-economy/economic-performance/annual-average-change-in- gross-domestic-product-gdp.cfm for the GDP data.

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over 36% of New Zealand‘s output. From an employment perspective, Statistics New Zealand business demography data indicates that the Auckland region contains 32% of New Zealand‘s employee count, which amounts to 621,000 jobs. The difference between the output and employment shares provides a rough guide to the productivity premium in Auckland relative to the rest of New Zealand.

Auckland‘s major industries rely on a well functioning transport sector. Key employing industries in 2009 are shown in Figure 3-4. The graph shows that the region has four broad employing industries in goods producing (114,230 jobs), distribution (151,400 jobs), financial services (131,520 jobs) and tertiary services, including health and education (140,000 jobs).

Figure 3-4: Major Employing Industries in Auckland by Broad Sector

Primary 1%

Goods Producing Tertiary Services 18% 23%

Government 5%

Goods Distributing 24%

Financial 21%

Transport and Communications Source: Statistics New Zealand 8% As such, the Auckland region derives over one third of its employment, or 212,000 jobs, from the so-called knowledge sector. These jobs are predominantly office related, engage people with advanced education (i.e. beyond school), are higher paying on average and are generally densely clustered in particular areas, such as the CBD. Employment distribution favours Auckland City, which contains 307,000 of the region‘s jobs (49%), while Manukau City contains 128,000 jobs (20%) and North Shore City 86,000 jobs (14%).

3.3 Scope and Role of the CBD

The CBD plays a significant role in the day to day functioning of Auckland. As well as growing in popularity as a place to live, it is also a significant destination for employment and tertiary education within the region. What constitutes the CBD and its role within the regional economy is a key driver of the analysis of the CBD rail link and the alternatives.

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3.3.1 Scope of the CBD

The definition of the area under consideration matters when looking at the performance of a proposed transport infrastructure project and its alternatives. The Auckland CBD has several definitions based upon who is doing the defining, for instance:

 Property specialists define the CBD narrowly, which excludes much of the port area, but encompasses a strip of land west of the motorway around the Karangahape Road area

 Statistics New Zealand census area unit boundaries could be used to define the CBD as the three area units consisting of Auckland Harbourside, Auckland Central West and Auckland Central East, but excludes the Symmonds Street corridor

 The ARC‘s ART3 transport model defines the CBD as zones 191 to 199, which includes the Symmonds Street corridor and extends to the south of Karangahape Road.

 Auckland City Council has a wider definition of the CBD based upon mesh block areas, which excludes some of Karangahape Road west of the motorway, but extends eastward to include the hospital.

 Auckland Regional Transport Authority also use a wider definition of the CBD, which is called the central city area (CCA)

For convenience, the definition of the CBD used in this paper will be assumed to follow the census area unit boundaries and the ART3 model zones (191-199), which closely align with one another in terms of population numbers. The ART3 models zones for the CBD are shown in Figure 3-5.

Figure 3-5: Definition of the Auckland CBD adopted by the study

The ART3 model zones also provide the basis for the CBD in the RLTS land use scenario that underpins the analysis in this paper (discussed later).

3.3.2 Role of the CBD

The CBD has evolved as a place where people both live and work. The duality inherent in this relationship has implications for land use – land or buildings used primarily for residential purposes cannot be used for office purposes and vice versa without wholesale conversion. It also has

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implications for how industries cluster within the area and for employment densities that can impact on the region‘s economics in terms of productivity and output growth.

Using Statistics New Zealand census area unit data for the CBD, the three core CBD area units shown in Table 3-1 have experienced a near doubling in respective populations between 2001 and 2006 and are compared to four fringe areas on the outskirts of the CBD. The central CBD areas tend to have a younger population, high representation in the working age population and with large differences in incomes and unemployment rates.

The harbour area tends to have people with higher incomes (a reflection of property values in that area) and low unemployment, while the other two CBD areas probably have higher numbers of students and younger people in cheaper accommodation, which represents the lower income profile and higher unemployment.

Table 3-1: Key Facts about Population and Demographics in the Auckland CBD Area Units

Population and Demographic Data for CBD and Fringe Area Units Population Median Age Median Personal 15-64 Age Unemployment Income ($) Bracket (%) Rate (%) Core CBD Auckland Harbourside 2,793 32 38,900 90.4 5.4 Auckland Central West 7,986 26 19,100 94.6 11.5 Auckland Central East 7,158 24 13,400 94.7 11.9

Fringe Freemans Bay 3,705 35 41,400 82.1 3.9 Newton 1,176 27 32,900 95.4 5.8 Grafton West 2,247 25 17,700 93.7 12.3 Parnell West 4,353 34 44,600 82.0 3.9

Source: Statistics NZ Figure 3-6 provides the population projections for the three CBD area units out to 2051.

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Figure 3-6: Population Projections for the CBD Area Units Based Upon the Medium Scenario

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000 Auckland Harbourside Auckland Central West Population 15,000 Auckland Central East

10,000

5,000

- 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Source: ARC and Statistics NZ Under the Statistics New Zealand projections, by 2051 the CBD area is expected to be home to 77,500 people and that over the study period for the CBD rail link (to 2041) the population is projected to have grown to just over 65,000 people. The ongoing nature of the projected trend in population growth beyond the study is an issue for consideration given that any evaluation of the investment alternatives must consider the capability to accommodate additional capacity requirements into the future.

Employment in the CBD is also relatively stable, as shown in Figure 3-7. The employee counts from Statistics New Zealand business demographic data9 indicates that as of 2009, there were 81,200 people employed in the CBD, an increase of 10,000 from nine years earlier. On this basis, and referring to the regional employee count discussed above, the CBD contains 13% of the employee count in the Auckland region and 26% of jobs in Auckland City.

Employment in the CBD area units is also extremely dense relative to other areas of Auckland (and indeed New Zealand), with the density across the CBD showing nearly 21,000 employees per square kilometre (over the 4 square kilometres covering the three area units).

9 It should be noted that this is all Statistics New Zealand business demographic data is by employee count, so counts equally both part-time and full-time employees. This may differ from the employment numbers used in the transport models, which are based upon census data and cover full-time equivalent (FTE) employment.

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Figure 3-7: Employee Counts in the CBD Area Units

40000

35000

30000

25000

Auckland Harbourside 20000

Auckland Central West Number Auckland Central East 15000

10000

5000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Statistics NZ Growth has not been consistent across the different area units that comprise the CBD. The western areas of the CBD have experienced a moderate decline of around 200 employees, while the eastern and harbour areas have stayed constant or increased. This suggests that there have been some internal migration movements within the CBD to the newly developed commercial areas around the harbour and to perhaps take advantage of proximity to the Britomart station since its redevelopment.

Further supporting material covering the above points on sub-regional population and employment dynamics can be found in Appendix A.

3.4 Transport Infrastructure in a Policy Context

This year the Auckland Regional Council released the Regional Land Transport Strategy 2010 (RLTS 2010), which replaces the 2005 regional land transport strategy. The strategy is a statutory document under the Land Transport Management Act (2003) and sets the tone and direction for the investment and management of the land transport network in Auckland over the next 30 years.

The Regional Land Transport Strategy must be complementary to the Regional Growth Strategy (1999) and give consideration to the New Zealand Transport Strategy (2008) and the Government Policy Statement (May 2009). The Government Policy Statement was re-prioritised when the National Party became the government in 2008 to focus on short to medium term issues surrounding the lifting of national productivity and economic growth.

The Regional Growth Strategy follows the Regional Policy Statement (adjusted for Plan Change 6) and sets out the development objectives for the Auckland region. This includes taking into account the need to balance continued development in the Auckland region, with amenity and environmental sustainability, which sees improvements in air, water and land quality. Land use strategy therefore underpins the regional growth strategy and is focussed on managing future growth by increasing

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the density of development around selected mixed use centres and key transport corridors. Such densification improves the integration of land use and transport by making the provision of public transport more cost effective and by heavily investing in transport infrastructure along those corridors can help with congestion relief on the wider transport network.

The planned amalgamation of the existing Auckland Regional council and the Auckland Territorial Authorities into a single Auckland Council from November 2010, will also see the regional transport network, excluding state highways and railways, come under the auspices of a new council controlled organisation, Auckland Transport, which replaces the Auckland Regional Transport Authority and the transport functions of the previous city and district councils. Auckland Transport will be required to give effect to the Regional Land Transport Strategy, which remains operative under the new governance arrangements.

The vision contained within the RLTS 2010 encompasses the transport network as a whole achieiving a level of integration, safety and resilience, that enables the efficient and timely movement of people and goods. Transport supports urban and rural communities with their ongoing development, including economic activity and by providing access to social, recreational and cultural activities.The transport priorities underpinning this vision for transport outcomes in the RLTS include:

 Support and contribute to a compact and contained urban form consisting of centres, corridors and rural settlements

 Implementing behaviour change programmes

 Continue major investment in rail, bus and ferry infrastructure and service improvements

 Improve the operation of existing roads, especially regional arterials

 Construct limited additional road capacity

 Reduce transport impacts on the natural environment and communities

These priorities will be achieved through a set of objectives that involve:

 Assisitng economic development – more efficient movement of people and good around the region

 Assisting safety and personal security – giving Aucklanders the confidence to travel around their region

 Improving access and mobility – making it easy for people to get to work and to access the activities that the region has to offer

 Protecting and promoting public health – less pollution and active travel modes promote healthy communities

 Ensuring environmental sustainability – reducing the pressure placed on the environment by the transport system, including air and water pollution and noise

 Integrating transport and land use – enabling the objectives for intensive land use development and densification set out in the Regional Growth Strategy

 Achieving economic efficiency – making best use of the resources currently invested in, or for new investment in, the transport network

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The component of the Regional Land Transport Strategy that most concerns the analysis of public transport infrastructure alternatives consists of expanding the rapid transit network (RTN). The rapid transit network is a series of strategic corridors that deliver high capacity, high frequency public transport services, and includes the Northern Busway and the commuter rail networks terminating at Britomart in the CBD. Connection to the major growth centres specified in the regional growth strategy is a key feature of the rapid transit network. Under the Regional Land Transport Strategy, an integral part of the expansion of the rapid transit network is the completion of the CBD rail link by 2021 to increase frequency and capacity of public transport services into central Auckland.

3.5 The Implications for land use in Auckland and the CBD

The above policy and strategy documents drive the land use assumptions that underpin regional growth and transport modelling that has been applied to Auckland. The analytical efforts around this paper have been undertaken on land use data supplied by the Auckland Regional Transport Authority, which is based upon early (2009) modelling of the Regional Land Transport Strategy (2010). This scenario, which has been called ―RLTS‖ for convenience, projects 2041 population and employment in the CBD to be 103,000 and 122,000 respectively. This growth comes off a 2006 base of nearly 18,000 resident population and 64,000 people employed in the CBD.

While Figure 3-7 and Figure 3-7 above show official (Statistics New Zealand) population projections and current employment counts for the CBD, altering land use assumptions can change the expectations of population and employment growth within areas, and particularly in this case, with the CBD.

How these different land use assumptions drive the RLTS scenario‘s impacts on CBD population and employment can be seen in Figure 3-8, which shows the projections out to the end of the assessment period (2041) and beyond.

Figure 3-8 : CBD RLTS Projections

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

Population

Number 60,000 Employment

40,000

20,000

0 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Source: ARTA and ARC

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The important feature to note in the above graph is the way the population growth in the RLTS scenario continues to push on out through to 2051, whereas employment growth shows a much flatter trajectory. While this is indicative of the competitive relationship between different land uses, in reality continued population and employment growth beyond the analysis period means that consideration of transport system capacity increases lie not just within the period of analysis but also beyond this.

The RLTS land use scenario is the key driver of the problem statement discussed in section 2.1 above and in the context of this paper is used as a key means of determining the most suitable transport projects to service the CBD. It is important to note that the RLTS, while based upon plan change 6, is an early incarnation of the scenario and represents a portion of CBD employment, but not all employment, and should be seen as a conservative projection from the point of view of future transport demand.

Subsequently, further land use scenarios have become available for consideration through work undertaken by the Auckland Regional Council10. These scenarios run off the same base 2006 year but offer different population and employment growth profiles for the CBD and the region. These scenarios are acknowledged, but for the purposes of the analysis contained within this paper, the RLTS land use scenario was the primary factor underpinning this analysis. Further land use scenarios will be considered in the detailed business case.

10 Future Land Use and Transport Planning Project – evaluation of future land use and transport scenarios – April 2010.

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4 Comprehensive List of Transport Measures

This section discusses the current suite of approved transport management tools and initiatives that are available to ARTA through its mandated strategy and planning documents. This comprehensive list of measures is summarised in Table 4-1. From this list, this section presents a concise set of alternative transport infrastructure investments that are considered to have sufficient transport capacity to support the population and growth forecasts for the Auckland CBD.

Table 4-1 summarises the transport measures, which are described in detail in the following sections.

Table 4-1: Transport Policy Measures and Considerations

Transport measures Considerations Likelihood of Facilitating Growth Targets

Flexible working hours Low 1. Travel Demand Work from home Measures (TDM) Satellite offices / places of learning Low 2. Increased Ferry Infrastructure Usage Service patterns

Development of inner city pedestrian areas and Low 3. Increased Walking mixing pedestrians with other traffic

Access to cycleways Low 4. Increased Cycling Mixing cycling in the CBD with other traffic Maximum current street capacity Moderate 5. Increased Private Car Maximum current intersection capacity Usage with Current Maximum current motorway capacity Capacity Current parking capacity Interaction with increased bus frequencies and more walking and cycling Increased motorway capacity Moderate 6. Increased Road Increased intersection capacity Capacity for Cars Parking capacity Moderate 7. Increased Bus Usage Quality Transit Network (QTN) & Rapid Transit - on Surface Network (RTN) – Grade separated where required Improvements

Suburban routes terminate at city limits and Moderate 8. CBD Bus Loop passengers transfer to dedicated above-ground City Bus Loop High 9. Central Area Bus 3 km tunnel linking north shore via harbour bridge Tunnel with 3 stations with western edge of city

New mode, not part of current networks so modal Moderate 10. Light Rail interchange required New services and infrastructure Street running Light rail capacity and journey times limited by sharing streets with other users. Segregated right of way (at grade or grade separated) required for high capacity and reliable journey times

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Transport measures Considerations Likelihood of Facilitating Growth Targets

Retain Britomart as terminus but expand capacity Moderate Expanded Britomart beyond 18-21 trains per hour 11. Terminus

Moderate 12. CBD Rail Link with no Convert Britomart to a through station by stations constructing CBD Rail Link

High 13 CBD Rail Link with CBD Rail Link with stations at Aotea, K-Road and three stations Newton

The following references have been used as references for descriptions:

 Auckland Transport Plan: http://www.arta.co.nz/assets/arta%20publications/2009/ATP20092019.pdf

 ARTA Regional Passenger Transport Plan: http://www.arta.co.nz/assets/documents/2010/ARTA%20RPTP%20Exec%20Summary%20web. pdf

 ARTA Sustainable Transport Plan: http://www.arta.co.nz/assets/arta%20publications/2007/ARTA%20Sustainable%20Transport%2 0Plan%202006-16.pdf

 Auckland City Council CBD into the Future: http://www.aucklandcity.govt.nz/council/documents/cbdstrategy/default.asp

 Auckland City Centre Urban Design Framework: http://www.aucklandcity.govt.nz/council/documents/urbandesigncbd/default.asp

 Work specifically undertaken by APB&B for this paper.

The transport measures listed in Table 4-1 can be broken down into three broad areas:

 Travel demand measures, including alternatives to travel and increased walking and cycling

 Reliance on extending road capacity and private vehicle usage

 Providing high capacity public transport infrastructure

The issues pertaining to each of these broad areas are discussed below and an assessment is made as to the contribution each area can make to commuting transport task likely to be faced in 2041.

4.1 Travel Demand Measures

Travel demand measures seek to modify the behaviour of travellers with the aim of reducing total vehicle kilometres travelled. This reduces strain on congested transport systems, which can provide travel time and external benefits, such as reduced vehicle emissions.

Three travel demand methods are discussed in this section:

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 Flexible working hours

 Telecommuting (working from home).

 Satellite office working

 Walking options

 Cycling options

4.1.1 Flexible Working Hours

Flexible working hours allow employees working within congested central areas to travel outside of peak periods. Two alternatives for flexible working are described below:

1. Compressed working week. Staff work a standard week but compressed into either four days per week or nine days per fortnight. The number of trips made is decreased and travel is likely to take place outside of peak periods.

2. Flexible start hours. Staff may start work before 7am or after 9am, and finish before 4pm or after 6pm, and would therefore be required to travel outside peak periods. The overall number of trips and kilometres travelled remains the same.

Allowing for flexible working hours would be expected to reduce the number of trips in and around Auckland‘s CBD during peak periods, easing congestion and reducing travel time for both participants and non-participants. The scheme could be initiated and showcased by the public sector; however, the overall magnitude of the scheme impact would be dependent on the rate of take up by private businesses in the CBD.

In 2009 the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads undertook a pilot project named the Flexible Workplace Program — Brisbane Central Pilot. This pilot was conducted to test a response to increasing urban congestion and involved both public departments and private companies.

The pilot demonstrated that flexible work arrangements can successfully reduce demand for travel during the weekday peak periods of 7-9am and 4-6pm, and reduce the overall need to travel.

Some of the key findings from the pilot were:

 The pilot achieved a 34% reduction in morning peak hour travel and a 32% reduction in afternoon peak hour travel amongst participants.

 The initiative eliminated some journeys altogether through participants adopting telecommuting and compressed work weeks/fortnights.

 Of the three flexible practices offered, flexible hours were the most popular. Many participants chose to use a combination of more than one practice.

 Both employees and employers indicated they had achieved increased productivity through working flexibly during the pilot.

 87% of participants reported improvement in their work-life balance.

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 There was high satisfaction with flexible work arrangements – 92% of participants expressed an interest in continuing their arrangements.11

Though the results show that flexible working arrangements can be used to reduce peak congestion, appropriate business systems must exist for employees and employers to engage in such arrangements and education is necessary to promote understanding of how the scheme works and its benefits.

In summary, flexible working hours as a travel demand measure would bring benefits by reducing pressure on the transport system during peak periods but is not expected to bring changes of sufficient magnitude so as to accommodate forecast growth in the CBD.

4.1.2 Telecommuting

Telecommuting is an arrangement whereby employees work from home or some other off site location on a regular basis, using electronic means to communicate with the office. Telecommuting can be a part time or full time arrangement.

Telecommuting has been suggested as a means of reducing the number of trips that are undertaken in and around the Auckland CBD each day/at peak periods. As well as bringing benefits include decreased congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gases, telecommuting, by removing the need to travel from an employee‘s work day may also increase productivity and quality of life.

Telecommuting was also identified as a measure for reducing urban congestion under the Flexible Workplace Program — Brisbane Central Pilot, previously referred to in paragraph 3.1.1.12

In summary, telecommuting is similar to flexible working hours, in that it depends on the rate of take up by businesses and employees. However distance working doesn‘t suit everyone or every business. Telecommuting is therefore unlikely to accommodate forecast additional growth of the Auckland CBD. It also does not realise agglomeration benefits for businesses being located in the CBD.

4.1.3 Satellite Offices/Places of Learning

Satellite offices refer to a situation where employees work both outside the home and away from the conventional workplace in a location convenient to the employees and/or customers.

This requires establishing offices outside Auckland City CBD reducing the number of vehicles travelling in, around and through the CBD. This option will require:

 Private capital outlay

 Private corporation cooperation

 Cooperation of employees

This measure is similar to telecommuting except that the primary workplace is a secondary office of the company established outside the CBD. However, this measure:

 Does not reduce the number of trips within the wider transport system,

11 http://www.transport.qld.gov.au/Home/General_information/Congestion/Flexible_workplace_pilot/

12 http://www.education.vic.gov.au/hrweb/divequity/balance.htm

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 May decrease vehicle kilometres travelled and journey time for some employees and customers but increase it for others and depending on the location of the new offices and associated public transport provision,

 May require mode shift from public transport to the private car, with associated environmental impacts.

In summary, this measure could relieve congestion within the CBD but may not be consistent with other the wider planning vision for Auckland. It also does not realise agglomeration benefits for businesses being located in the CBD.

4.1.4 Walking

ARTA and other interest groups have emphasised the importance of increasing walking in major centres throughout Auckland. As well as bringing health and regional benefits, ARTA also recognises that walking contributes to vibrant and economically successful centres. Subsequently they have developed strategies and plans to increase the mode share of walking.

The Auckland Regional Land Transport Strategy (ARTA, 2010) sets out the following four policy outcomes to be achieved by 2040. These outcomes provide direction to later policy and action plans:

 The region‘s communities are walkable (safe, direct and pleasant for pedestrians, with a variety of destinations within walking distance),

 Walking is a natural choice for short journeys in and around local communities,

 Walking is on the increase and pedestrian injury rates have declined.

 More walking increases community cohesion and safety.

Increasing the mode share of walking requires an understanding of infrastructure, journey, social and safety requirements of commuters and the wider community. A Walking Action Plan is included within the Sustainable Transport Plan (ARTA, 2010). The Plan has three key priorities:

 Increase walk trips to school, and make walking to school safer.

 Increase walk trips to town centres, and make town centres safe and pleasant places to walk.

 Increase community involvement in walking issues.

The Auckland Regional Land Transport Strategy (RLTS) has set a mode share target of 15.5% of morning peak trips by walking or cycling by 2040. This will be achieved by a program of improvements that will be undertaken in 18 town centres or intensifying areas.

However it seems unlikely that walking alone will facilitate the growth in Auckland CBD, given the current and projected size of the CBD population, the percentage already engaged in active modes and the projected growth in employment (which will foster external trip creation – see Figure 2-1).

4.1.5 Cycling

Increased cycling as a measure is aligned with the RLTS (ARTA, 2010). The RLTS objectives set in the cycling programme are to make cycling in the region:

 safe, direct and pleasant,

 a natural choice for short journeys, and

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 more popular, thus increasing the numbers of people cycling.

Construction of the Regional Cycle Network is seen as the major driver in increasing cycling mode share. Half of the Regional Cycle Network will have been completed by 2016, which will create a safe, pleasant environment for most current cyclists and will attract more Aucklanders to cycle.

Table 4-2 contains the objectives of the Auckland City Council in regards to walking and cycling.

Table 4-2: Walking and Cycling Objectives (Auckland City Council)13

Objective Aim

To increase and improve Implement facilities as set out in the cycling and walking action plans facilities Work collaboratively with organisations on cycling and walking initiatives, from an early stage of project development

Support regional coordination of and intraregional access to pedestrian and cycle facilities and initiatives by working closely with councils bordering Auckland city Investigate and trial innovative ways to improve the pedestrian and cyclist network

To improve safety and Continue to support the enforcement of road user rules perception of safety

Target risk areas and investigate appropriate measures to improve safety

Continue proactive safety and education programmes

To improve amenity and Ensure that facilities are maintained to a good standard convenience Investigate ways to minimise the effect that motorised vehicles have on walking and cycling environments

To make universal access Implement facilities and initiatives that assist all users

To improve communities and Incorporate good urban design when planning and implementing town centres cycling and walking facilities

Improve cyclist and pedestrian access to open space and recreational facilities

Encourage schools, education facilities and businesses to promote walking, cycling and the use of passenger transport

Promoting cycling and walking will contribute to the council‘s vision in a number of ways, including:

 Increasing people‘s travel choices

 Contributing to managing traffic congestion and air pollution

13 Walking Action Plan 2007-2012, Making Walking a More Attractive Choice, Auckland City Council

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 Raising public awareness of the needs of pedestrians and cyclists, to improve road safety

 Adding vitality to society and supporting a sense of community and liveability

 Helping manage future population increases and changing demands for travel

 Making Auckland more accessible for everyone.

Although increasing the number of trips made by cycling is likely to bring similar benefits to increased walking trips, being health benefits and reducing the environmental impact of travel, it is unlikely that this measure alone would facilitate growth in the Auckland CBD.

4.1.6 Role of Travel Demand Measures

The alternative modes discussed above provide good options to support the general transport task, but they lack the capacity to deliver the movement for significant numbers of people that Auckland will require. They are supporting modes to the systems that offer scale and are there to help distribute the travel demand load around the network, providing relief at the margin, rather than a bulk carriage function. As such, these measures form important sub-components of transport strategies and plans and can be used effectively as targeted treatments within specific areas (e.g. walking and cycling initiatives within the CBD, walking school buses etc).

4.2 Increased reliance on private car usage and road network expansion

This sub-section explores the options associated with increasing the reliance on road networks to deliver future transport outcomes, including:

 Private car usage within the current road network and allowing for existing road infrastructure upgrades

 Significantly increasing the road capacity available for cars

4.2.1 Increased Private Car Usage (Current Capacity)

High levels of car ownership and car use in the Auckland region have resulted in an increasingly inefficient transport system in the region. Many of the region‘s roads are operating close to capacity.

Further demand for travel by private car would lead to increased congestion, decreased travel times for all road users, and reduced air quality. Peak spreading, which is already starting to occur, would become more and more of an issue, congesting the roads for even longer periods than which already occur. In the long term, this alternative would lead to disagglomeration and an urban sprawl, with businesses relocating to peripheral centres to improve access for employees and customers (shares of regional employment are growing in North Shore City and Manukau City – see Appendix A).

This alternative does not align with the vision, strategies and plans for the Auckland region. Both the ARTA and Auckland City Council have declared that a reduction in private car use in and around Auckland CBD and a significant shift to more sustainable modes of transport will play a significant role in Auckland‘s future. Auckland City Council, in its CBD Urban Design Framework, includes an objective to develop sustainable transport routes in key areas where walking, cycling and public transport have priority over private vehicles.

However, given current road capacity and the associated constraints during the AM peak, it seems unlikely that increased private car usage will facilitate the growth in Auckland CBD.

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4.2.2 Increased Road Capacity for Cars

To facilitate growth, an increase in the use of private cars in and around Auckland CBD would require an increase in:

 Traffic management capacity

 Street capacity;

 Intersection capacity;

 Motorway capacity;

 Parking capacity (on and off-road); and

 Land acquisition.

There has been and continues to be significant investment in the motorway network through central Auckland including:

 Upgrading of the Central Motorway Junction (completed)

 Newmarket Viaduct replacement – in progress

 Victoria Park Tunnel – in progress.

Further planned motorway improvement projects include:

 Grafton Gully Stage 3 (improved access to the Port of Auckland)

 Additional Waitemata Harbour Crossing

In addition construction of the State Highway 20 Waterview section will complete the western motorway bypass (the ―Western Ring Route‖), allowing through traffic to avoid central Auckland.

While this programme of motorway investment has reduced congestion on the approaches to and around the periphery of the CBD (in conjunction with traffic management measures such as ramp signalling), it has not been accompanied by any significant increase in road lane capacity within the CBD itself. This reflects Auckland City Council‘s strategy of balancing the objectives and needs of road users, public transport, pedestrians, and urban design

Significant investment in additional road capacity, other than the above mentioned projects, is not aligned with current strategic planning for the region. The Auckland Transport Plan 2009 does not indicate any significant roading expansion projects within the CBD itself, possibly reflecting the very limited opportunities for, and the significant impacts of, constructing additional surface road capacity within the densly developed CBD. The environmental effects of transport and any increasing volatility in fuel prices will significantly influence the future development of transport networks. This has already been signalled, for example, in the current New Zealand Transport Strategy (NZTS) which has identified targets for increasing the person trip share of both active modes and passenger transport.

ARTA recognises in its Regional Arterial Road Plan (2009) that the region‘s geographic constraints impose restrictions on the transport system, confining links to narrow corridors in key locations. Auckland‘s growing population and economy will place pressure on the regional arterial network as the demand for travel increases, and the capacity of the strategic network comes under further pressure. The busiest part of the transport network is the north-south motorway system. The regional arterial network in this location (running parallel to and intersecting with the motorway) is

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likely to come under severe pressure as a result, which is particularly undesirable as a number of sensitive land use activities, such as schools or town centres, are located on regional arterial roads.

In summary, increased road capacity for cars as a single strategy for accommodating forecast demand for trips to Auckland CBD does not align with strategic planning for the region. While strategies and policies can change over time – this study considers issues out to 2041, Auckland‘s geographical constraints won‘t change, so increasing road capacity may not be technically (or financially) feasible. The economics of land acquisition for roads in already heavily built up areas would not only be expensive, but the levels of activity lost from those sites may be lost or transferred to another area, potentially lowering the benefits from the road project.

4.2.3 Outlook for roads and private vehicles as a transport solution

The road based solutions quickly run into scarcity issues with their deployment. Increased car usage on the existing network is not feasible, given current congestion rates and the population growth projected for the region, which could potentially put another half a million cars on the regional roads in the next 45 years. Increasing road capacity runs into the scarcity of available space with which to site to the extended road network. Further land acquisition for roads would be expensive and could alter land use patterns that are not in line with current regional strategies. While strategies and policies change, the built form and constrained nature of the Auckland isthmus point to expensive land acquisition and potential economic loss from the land converted into road, lowering the benefits of the infrastructure.

Public transport alternatives considered

The following sections discuss in detail the potential for public transport measures to deliver the necessary transport capacity into and out of the Auckland CBD, particularly during the AM and PM peak periods.

4.3 Increased Ferry Usage

The 2006 Census indicates a mode share for Auckland Ferries of no more than 1.2% of work trips14, which is comparable to the situation in Wellington and Australian capitals in that year. If the mode share of ferry services were to be increased, pressure could be eased on the road based transport networks within Auckland, particularly in those areas served by ferry services.

Ferry patronage increased by 3.5% in the 2009/10 financial year, having been essentially static in recent years, this may in part be due to recent improvements to some services as well as a general increase in passenger transport usage.

Nine commuter ferry services are currently offered in Auckland, operating between the CBD and Bayswater, Birkenhead, Devonport, Gulf Harbour, Half Moon Bay, Pine Harbour, Stanley Bay, West Harbour and Waiheke Island and ARTA is working to improve the ferry network. A comprehensive review would be required to examine the reasons for the low patronage of ferries, but it is likely that a program to increase patronage would include both infrastructure and service improvements.

Infrastructure requirements for increasing the mode share of ferries may include:

 Increase in the current number of berthing terminals in Auckland CBD- this could further berths on Queens Wharf

14 Census of Population and Dwellings (2006).

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 Increase in the number of wharves in and around Auckland

 Maintenance docks for ferries

 Replacement of old infrastructure

The following improvements are planned by ARTA in the medium term (the next 10 years) subject to funding and consultation:

 Upgraded terminals and parking at Birkenhead, Bayswater, and Half Moon Bay

 New ferry terminals at Hobsonville and Beach Haven

 Working in partnership with local councils to improve wharf infrastructure.

Service improvements to improve the mode share of ferries could include:

 Increasing the frequency of ferry services;

 Increase in the number of destinations serviced (also requiring provision of wharf infrastructure); and

 Alterations in timetables to make current ferry services more efficient.

The impact of increasing ferry mode share would be removal of some trips from the road based transport networks and therefore relieve congestion, improving travel times and air quality.

However, ferries currently account for a small share of the transport task and so a significant mode shift would be required to accommodate passengers on the scale of forecast increases in total trips. Even if the number of stops and services is increased, the population living within walking distance of a passenger wharf is limited. For this reason, issues to consider when improving ferry services are the additional measures needed to improved access to the terminals, for example park and ride facilities and bus services. The majority of interchanging passengers would need to use local road networks to reach the wharves, which may lead to congestion on local roads. Furthermore, once passengers reach the CBD, they must then also be transport to destinations across the CBD.

Critically, although increasing ferry mode share would bring relief to the transport system, the effect is limited by the location and proximity of the usually resident population, meaning this measure alone is unlikely to provide sufficient capacity. Therefore, increases in ferry based services are not considered sufficient to carry the expected transport task in 2041. Ferries do however play an important supporting role by providing another mode for commuters to choose, particularly from the northern sector coming into the CBD and therefore provide an important partnership with the Northern Busway.

4.4 Increased Bus Usage

An alternative approach to providing the CBD Rail Loop is to provide for the forecasted increase in public transport customers by increasing the capacity of the bus network.

There have been three approaches taken to this alternative evaluation

1. Surface. Increase bus capacity maximising surface (principally road) infrastructure. Retain current network approach where buses terminate in the CBD. 2. Bus Loop. Increase bus capacity on the surface (principally road) infrastructure by forcing a transfer from standard to high capacity buses on the CBD edge and running these high capacity buses around and through the CBD bus on a loop route,.

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3. Bus tunnel. Reduce impact and constraints of running buses on the roading network and utilise bus tunnels and underground stations(in the CBD) and increased separation outside the CBD.

4.4.1 Background – Previous Studies CBD

Bus capacity of key bus streets in Auckland CBD, including Fanshawe Street, Albert Street and Symonds Street has been assessed in previous studies. These assessments found that bus capacity was limited and very sensitive to bus stop configuration, passenger throughput, the level of priority provided for buses and signal phasing.

The potential for bus capacity increases was also noted as limited on streets such as Albert Street given the current poor pedestrian facilities and complex access arrangements for large sites (including split level streets).

Auckland City has also determined that for many of its streets, for instance Queen Street, increased bus usage was not consistent with other CBD objectives (pedestrian amenity).

The capacity of bus terminal infrastructure is also limited. An assessment of the capacity of the Britomart bus terminal found it only had a capacity of 140 buses per hour without major changes to bus operational parameters such as passenger and layover stop locations and sharing.

4.4.2 2041 Bus Demand Without CBD Rail Link

To estimate the future impact of bus passenger transport without the CBD Rail Link, the following assumptions were made as part of a ―most likely‖ growth scenario for different modes in the morning peak 2 hour period between 2006/07 and 2041:

 growth in car person travel is limited to about 11 % above existing through modest increases in car vehicle occupancy and peak spreading – no increase in the capacity of the road network for private vehicles is assumed

 future rail mode share is limited to about 12 % (from an existing mode share of about 5 %) without a CBD rail link; this reflects the limited catchment areas of the existing rail lines and the likely reluctance to redirect direct CBD bus services into rail stations; at this future mode share, rail trips into the CBD would be increased by a factor of 185 % over existing which is within the capacity of 18 trains per hour servicing Britomart

 growth in ferry person travel is limited to the growth in population in the ferry catchment areas (assumed to be the southern part of the North Shore) – a growth of no more than 36 %

These assumptions are underpinned by a further set of assumptions that:

 There will be no growth in the number of vehicles entering the CBD during the peak because of the inability to increase capacity and through competing demandsfor space from buses, cyclists and pedestrians

 There will be some spreading across the peak

 There will be some increase in average vehicle occupancy

The above is derived from a confidential Auckland City Council report, which provided base assumptions from which the APB&B team were able to draw a set of future assumptions for travel conditions into the Auckland CBD. Under the assumptions described above for CBD travel demand growth and limits in growth for different modes, the demand for bus travel into the CBD in the 2 hour morning peak is estimated to increase by about 135%.

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This broad growth assumption was checked against results from the APT model. For a 2041 scenario without a CBD rail loop or a Parnell rail station, the growth in bus demand is predicted to be 139%.

The growth in bus demand will vary across the different bus corridors based on variations in underlying population growth within the corridor and the ability for trips to be made by rail. In particular, bus demand on the North Shore and Fanshawe Street corridor is likely to increase at a much stronger rate than other corridors.

The underlying capacity of the bus corridors is assessed against a peak hour demand. Allowance has been made for a moderate spreading of the peak hour within the peak two hours.

The medium level increases in CBD bus flows by 2041 are illustrated in Figure 4-1, which are based upon APB&B calculations following the review of key documents pertaining to transport network operation in Auckland15. The diagram assumes that, in the absence of the CBD Rail Link, rail network operations will be constrained in the 2041 period, which provides for growth in the western corridors that is comparable with the growth coming from the south and east.

15 These documents include the RLTS, the Passenger Transport Network Plan, those referenced at the beginning of section 4 and confidential reports supplied by Auckland City Council.

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Figure 4-1: Corridor Bus Growth 2007-2041

Table 4-3 below shows estimated bus flow capacity and future demands for these key CBD bus streets.

Table 4-3: CBD Bus Capacity and Demand peak AM hour CBD Bus Street Bus Capacity/hour Future Practical 2007 Bus Estimated Future Capacity Flows Bus Flows/hr Fanshawe Street 150 125 92 250 Central Connector 220 200 124 206 Albert Street 130 110 66 110 Queen Street 50# 30 35 58 Notes: # Queen Street bus capacity assessed as being at the lower end of bus lane warrant

As the table shows, on the current major bus streets in the Auckland CBD, projected bus flows will exceed their practical capacity in some case by substantial margins.

4.4.3 Bus Capacity to the CBD

In addition to capacity limitations within the CBD, buses approach and depart the city on arterial and other road corridors shared with other vehicles. In contrast with the CBD Rail Link proposal, which proposes to make use of substantial spare capacity on three rail lines with exclusive priority over

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other surface modes, a surface bus rapid transit option by itself will be an inferior proposition if it has to share corridors with general traffic. Many of these corridors are already subject to significant congestion and delays at peak times. Figure 4-2 highlights current points of congestion on wider bus network that would need grade separation to unlock bus rapid transit benefits.

Figure 4-2: Current congestion points impacting upon bus operations

Whilst rail already has priority corridors, bus largely does not (except the Northern Busway). If buses are to provide the capacity increase necessary to accommodate the CBD‘s needs, it too will need dedicated rights of way. This study proposes that bus lanes alone will not be adequate to provide reliable bus service running conditions. We would instead put forward that Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) would be required over strategic parts of the road network to engender the levels of service (frequency and reliability) required if a system of bus routes were to form the core of the Rapid Transit Network. This would take the form of exclusive bus lanes (one in each direction) assumed to be in the median, widening to an effective 3 lanes at stations, where stations would be located approximately 800m apart.

It is likely that BRT in Auckland would require grade-separation at major junctions as illustrated in Figure 4-3, which is significantly different from the experience in Auckland, where dedicated bus priority systems exist only on the North Shore. Other areas, for example Newmarket, Dominion Road (Mount Eden) and Sandringham Road have all had investment in public transport and road infrastructure, but this is to facilitate the sharing of the existing corridor between buses and private vehicles.

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Figure 4-3: Example of Grade Separated BRT Junction

4.5 Increased Bus Usage – On Surface Capacity Improvements

4.5.1 Description

This option would retain buses on surface streets within Auckland CBD and is aimed at investigating the extent to which the CBD street network could accommodate projected bus flows without grade-separation. This option represents an extension and natural development of the current strategies for providing bus priority in Auckland and many other cities – surface bus rapid transit facilities comprising bus lanes on bus streets within the CBD. These would need to be supported by bus priority measures already identified (as well as additional measures) on key approach routes, suburban interchanges, peripheral terminals and new city centre bus stations.

In contrast to the rail tunnel option in providing additional future passenger transport demand, which makes use of substantial unused capacity on the rail network‘s exclusive corridors, a surface bus rapid transit option operates on corridors shared with general traffic and with additional friction generated by at-grade intersections where buses are competing with other vehicle and pedestrian movements for signal phase time.

Bus rapid transit (BRT) aims to overcome these constraints by providing additional protection for buses from interaction with other vehicles through exclusive bus streets, bus bays and grade- separation to avoid surface intersections and can deliver passenger flows comparable to fixed track modes while retaining the flexibility benefits of buses. In this option, key bus approach corridors outside the CBD would need to be upgraded from bus lanes proposed in Auckland City Council‗s planned bus priority infrastructure improvements, to higher-order BRT standard.

4.5.2 Constraints to BRT

The potential to deliver surface bus rapid transit in the Auckland CBD is constrained by the potential capacity of key bus streets. Previous investigations have shown that key CBD bus streets and facilities, including Fanshawe Street, Queen Street and Albert Street have limited capacity due to:

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 a potential bottleneck on the Central Connector, at the intersection of Symonds Street, Karangahape Road and Grafton Bridge due to the motorway access

 Albert Street road widths and configuration limiting the potential for bus priority measures and bus bays

 Impacts on Victoria Park and developments fronting Fanshawe Street on the potential for bus stops to increase bus capacity of Fanshawe Street. Despite the Victoria Park tunnel project being expected to reduce traffic on Fanshawe Street, traffic generated by the Wynyard Quarter development would be likely to result in no effective reduction in private traffic in Fanshawe Street

 Limited capacity for additional bus priority in Hobson Street because of its role as a motorway connection and future increased traffic role in the CBD

 Limited capacity for buses in Queen Street including footpath widening, pedestrian-friendly signal phasing, and its designation as a Greenway in Council‘s Long Term Road Function Plan and reinforcement as a pedestrian-focused corridor in recent work by consultant Jan Gehl. A bus lane proposal for Queen Street was recently rejected because of perceived inconsistencies with its pedestrian function

 Limited capacity and effectiveness of city centre bus terminals and interchanges including Britomart interchange and Mid City to cater for increased service frequency

4.5.3 Rerouting and Through Routing

This option takes the opportunity to reroute some buses to and through the CBD to balance bus access to the CBD and capacity-constrained north-south CBD streets. The resulting bus routes are shown in Figure 4-4 below.

A constraint with this option is the availability of alternative routes for CBD buses, which would continue to offer good passenger access to the heart of the CBD.

Bus corridors expecting major growth would be managed as follows:

North Shore buses, expected to grow by some 200% to 332 buses per hour by 2041 in the medium scenario, would operate via two routes within the CBD – with some 50% of buses continuing on Fanshawe Street while the remaining half would (following completion of an additional Waitemata Harbour Crossing and Victoria Park Tunnel) make use of bus lanes on SH1 viaduct through Victoria Park to the Cook Street off-ramp. These buses would enter the CBD via Cook Street and Mayoral Drive using a new major surface bus station near the Civic Centre. An additional on-ramp from Cook Street to the Motorway off-ramp would be constructed to cater for outbound bus movements on the North Shore busway services.

The resulting peak bus flow on Fanshawe Street under this scenario would still be beyond the practical capacity of the bus lane, assuming all buses were used stops in Fanshawe Street. Accordingly, bus services through Fanshawe Street would need to be structured such that around half would not stop at Wynyard Quarter inbound and outbound. This type of skip-stop operation is a conventional way of balancing bus flows and passenger access, particularly on bus rapid transit services, where passengers would have the opportunity to transfer between buses at Northern Busway stations to access different destinations in the CBD.

Bus passengers would be delivered to the CBD at a reconfigured Britomart station (with all passenger activities in Queen Elizabeth Square, with other stops operating as layover) and a new surface bus station at Civic. Both stations would provide good coverage of CBD destinations.

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Western bus routes would continue to operate two-way in Albert Street with a peak flow expected of some 88 buses per hour. This is within the effective capacity of the bus lane under assumed current operations. A proportion of Isthmus services would operate on Karangahape Road to Newmarket to serve upper CBD and Newmarket destinations.

Not shown on the figure is the retention of up to 30 buses her hour on Queen Street.

Central Connector bus routes would enter the CBD via Wellesley Street at a new Civic bus station to avoid constraints towards the northern end of the CBD and Britomart bus station.

Figure 4-4 : Surface Bus Routes

4.5.4 Infrastructure Requirements

The following infrastructure would be required to support the surface capacity improvement option:

 Completion of the AWHC project to establish bus lanes on Auckland Harbour Bridge (both directions), along with a structure to allow buses to access the Northern Busway via an Onewa flyover and bus lanes on the SH1 off-ramp to Cook Street; two-way operation of Cook Street as well as a new on-ramp from Cook Street westbound to the SH1 ramp.

 A 350m tunnel (approx) from Cook street beneath Nelson and Hobson Streets to overcome grade and intersection constraints

 Bus rapid transit corridors, station and grade-separated junctions as shown in Figure 4-4. These are assumed to require property acquisition along their length to achieve additional corridor width.

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 Reconfiguration of Britomart Bus Station to concentrate passenger activities in Queen Elizabeth Square

 Bus lanes on Mayoral Drive and Cook Street in both directions

 Wellesley Street converted to Bus Only between Symonds Street and Nelson Street

 Bus lanes required on Nelson and Hobson Streets between Cook and Wellesley

 A new surface bus station in Civic on Mayoral Drive and Queen Street (estimated $100 million).

 Additional buses and bus operational costs associated with an average 88% increase in buses operating to the CBD.

4.5.5 Operational Evaluation

Maintenance of bus operations on CBD surface streets would require rerouting of buses within the CBD in response to identified capacity constraints. In some case (such as for North Shore buses) this could potentially improve passenger servicing of the CBD (by providing more direct access to the Civic precinct) but in others (such as Central Connector services) there would be less effective servicing of the northern CBD.

Buses would continue to be highly susceptible to traffic incidents and conflict with other modes (most notably pedestrians) and most CBD bus streets would be operating at or near their effective capacity, worsening the impact of incidents. Bus travel times within the CBD could be expected to continue to decay, increasing operating costs.

4.5.6 Strategic Evaluation

The option is not compatible with Auckland City Council‘s objectives to improve the pedestrian environment within the CBD through its streetscape upgrade program. Many of the city‘s north- south and east-west streets would be dominated by traffic – buses and other vehicles – and there would be limited opportunities under this option to reduce road space in the city centre to cater for the expected large growth in pedestrian and cycle movements. In particular, the Civic precinct would become a major bus station and the focus of a large number of bus movements at peak times.

4.6 Increased Bus Usage – CBD Bus Loop

4.6.1 Option Description

A dedicated high quality bus service circling and running through the CBD distributing passengers as collected from strategic transfer points on the CBD Fringe where mainline bus routes would terminate.

4.6.2 Examples and Learnings

Many cities have investigated options for terminating city bound buses at the edges of the city centre, with passengers transferring to a city distributor or loop service to complete their journey. The options (the most recent example being Dubai‘s City Bus concept) are based around assumptions that a central city distributor would require fewer buses than the total of all buses on the radial routes; and these buses could be concentrated on fewer streets. City distributor buses are often envisaged as high quality vehicles with a higher proportion of standing passengers than conventional urban buses.

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4.6.3 Constraints

The concept has a number of serious flaws. These include:

 Passenger resistance to transfer, particularly close to their CBD destination. Public transport passengers perceive an intermodal transfer as additional travel time, often well beyond the actual transfer time incurred. Forced transfer in close proximity to the CBD is a major disincentive to passenger transport travel. Resistance to transfer is also influenced by the modes transferred to and from. Passengers are less sensitive to a change from a lower-order mode (such as bus) to a higher-order mode like rail, which would offer travel time or comfort advantages. Transfer from a bus to another bus, close to their destination, would be strongly resisted, most especially by public transport users relatively close to the CBD, for whom the perceived and actual travel time impact would be more onerous than for linger-distance commuters. Resistance to transfer can reduce potential passenger transport demand by up to 40 percent and/or increase park and ride demand at the peripheral terminals

 City centre loop routes are often less direct than the routes replaced, increasing passenger disadvantage from the direct bus alternative. The potential for a loop bus to be used to move around the CBD at other times is also dependent on the extent to which its route matches CBD destinations. A CBD loop aimed at replacing direct bus services may need to be supplemented by an additional city centre shuttle.

 Reductions in bus movements in the city centre can be minor. The number of buses required to distribute passengers around the city centre can be almost as many as the routes replaced, particularly when these are concentrated on a smaller number of streets within the CBD

 The scale of passenger interchange facilities at the peripheral terminals can be very large because the facilities must accommodate an intensive bus terminal and interchange (both from the feeder bus to the city loop in the morning and vice versa in the afternoon) as well as a city loop interchange and terminal (see Figure 4-5 below for an example in Sao Paulo Brazil). When this option was examined for the Sydney CBD as part of examinations for light rail in the city centre, some peripheral bus terminals required 500m to 800m of kerb space to manage bus arrivals and departures, not including space required for passenger pick up and drop off for the distributor service. Passenger transfer distances of 250m or more were required at peak times and management of feeder bus and light rail loop movements were extremely complex.

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Figure 4-5: Busway Distributor Transfer Facility, Sao Paulo Brazil

4.6.4 Two Options

For Auckland, there are two general approaches. The first is to terminate buses on the edge of the CBD and operate a loop service within the CBD. The second is to establish the city loop as a wider distributor network, similar to the existing Link bus. The former approach is made difficult because the constrained nature of the CBD‘s street network and topography; and its current development limits potential sites for bus terminals and interchanges on the CBD fringe.

The second approach is favoured because there are more opportunities for the bus and distributor bus terminals and interchanges beyond the CBD fringe and the distributor/loop route can perform an additional wider distribution role. The trade-off would in directness of the CBD connection from the terminal points for passengers.

4.6.5 Rerouting and Through Routing

The suggested route for the CBD Loop route option is shown in Figure 4-6 below. The route would operate from Takapuna to the CBD via Fanshawe Street, then as a two-way loop via Albert Street, Wellesely, Symonds Street, Khyber Pass Road and Broadway to Newmarket, then via Broadway, Khyber Pass Road and New North Road to Eden Park, then via Bond Street and Great North Road to Ponsonby Road, then via Victoria Street to the CBD in Albert Street. An alternative direct route for some loop services would operate between Eden Park and Great North Road to Albert Street.

Major bus terminals and interchanges to facilitate the transfer between feeder buses and the CBD Loop service, would be constructed at Newmarket, Eden Park (the facility could also be used for events at the Stadium) and Takapuna. These interchanges would provide for transfer for the main bus corridors (requiring re-routing of some feeder bus routes), while transfer to and from more minor routes would be at conventional bus stops.

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Figure 4-6: CBD Bus Loop

4.6.6 Operating Assumptions

The estimated service level for the CBD Bus Loop alternative would be some 160 -180 buses per hour in each direction, to cater for transfer to and from feeder buses on the feeder bus network. It is assumed that longer than standard buses would be used, with fewer seats, to maximise passenger capacity on what would be relatively short routes to the city centre. Assuming a maximum capacity (seating and standing) of 80 to 100 passengers per bus, the hourly theoretical capacity of the CBD Bus Loop alternative would be 12800 to 18000 passengers per hour in each direction.

This would represent a reduction in bus movements to and through the city in the order of 55 percent.

Not all of the loop buses would operate across the Harbour Bridge, with around 55 percent of loop buses needing to cross the harbour.

However, bus movements within the CBD would be concentrated on a limited number of city streets including Wellesley Street, Victoria Street, Albert Street and Fanshawe Street. The majority are compatible with bus use and have bus lanes. However, bus flows of the order envisaged in this option would be close to or beyond the capacity of Albert and Fanshawe Street and additional bus priority infrastructure would be required for Wellesley and Victoria Streets.

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Bus interchanges and terminals at Eden Park, Takapuna and Newmarket would be large facilities. The required number of bus spaces to cater for feeder bus and loop bus passenger pick up and drop off, as well as layover parking for feeder buses at peak times would be:

 Takapuna – 90 spaces – approx 30,000m2

 Eden Park – 107 spaces – approx 35,000 m2

 Newmarket – 59 spaces – approx 20,000 m2

These would be major off-street facilities with substantial traffic impacts and likely requiring extensive traffic management changes beyond the scope of this study to assess. The interchanges themselves would have large footprints. While Takapuna bus station could be expanded to accommodate the additional bus and passenger demands (though requiring a larger footprint), new facilities would need to be established at Eden Park and Newmarket.

As well, additional buses would be required to operate the CBD Loop services. While there may be some saving in bus operating cost from terminating most buses short of the CBD, this is expected to be marginal. Additional fleet would be required for the high capacity Loop bus service.

4.6.7 Infrastructure Requirements

 Construction of three major off-street bus terminals at Newmarket, Takapuna and Eden Park

 Extensive traffic management measures around the three identified terminals

 Completion of the AWHC project to establish bus lanes on Auckland Harbour Bridge in both directions.

 Bus lanes on Victoria Street and Wellesley Street

4.6.8 Operational Evaluation

In APB&B‘s view, the CBD Bus Loop option would not be a viable bus alternative. The impacts on passengers of any termination of buses short of the CBD would be great because of the added travel time and reduced convenience of passenger transport. This option would be likely to result in a substantial reduction in bus demand across the network and an increased demand for private vehicle trips. There would be a high demand for park and ride at interchange points outside the CBD (as travellers aim to reduce the inconvenience of their trip by accessing the loop service directly) and if these are relatively close to the CBD, the potential VKT savings of park and ride would not be achieved.

4.6.9 Strategic Evaluation

While bus movements within the CBD may be reduced by around 55 percent in this option, key city streets identified as having bus capacity limitations in the future including Fanshawe Street and Albert Street, would still operate beyond their effective capacity, restricting the potential for streetscape improvements and pedestrian improvements to be carried out. Additional bus priority measures would be required in the Civic precinct.

4.7 Increased Bus Usage – Bus tunnels

4.7.1 Description

This alternative would separate the main flow of buses through the CBD by providing a bus-only tunnel beneath the city with purpose built, underground bus stations

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4.7.2 Examples and Learnings

A number of cities with bus-based passenger transport systems have implemented fully or partly grade-separated bus solutions. Examples include Seattle‘s bus tunnel (now operating with mixed bus and light rail services) and Brisbane‘s busway system, which are described below. a. Seattle

Seattle‘s Metro Bus Tunnel is 2.1km long and carries buses and light rail north-south beneath the city‘s central business district (see Figure 4-7, Figure 4-8 , Figure 4-9). The tunnel was opened in 1990 and was converted to dual-use (bus and light rail) in 2007. The tunnel is used by about one- quarter of buses entering the city centre. It has a potential capacity (in King County Metro‘s view) of 165 buses per hour in each direction and a practical capacity (again in King County Metro‘s view) in terms of balancing capacity with quality of service, of some 125 buses per hour (most recent data suggests a capacity of around 15,000 to 20,000 passengers per hour). However, demand projections from 2001 studies suggested potential bus flows of more than 200 per hour. The capacity of the tunnel itself is considered to be substantially higher than 165 buses per hour but is limited by station design and operation.

Figure 4-7: Seattle Bus Tunnel Map

Source: TCRP Report 90

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Figure 4-8: Seattle Metro Bus Tunnel Station

Figure 4-9: Pioneer Square Station, Seattle

Air quality and ventilation concerns in the bus tunnel were addressed through use of a purpose-built fleet of dual power 18m articulated buses (see photo above) which switched to electric power in the tunnel. Since the tunnel was converted for LRT use, hybrid buses are used.

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Despite this, operating costs for the tunnel and stations are high, estimated at $US8 million per annum.

An important planning consideration with Seattle as a bus tunnel initiative is the introduction of rail- based transit in the city. While the bus tunnel continues to operate, it is now a transit tunnel incorporating the Central Link light rail. Because of strong population growth and steady decay in bus speeds, authorities are committed to expanding rail-based rapid transit in the city because of the wider network benefits, with strong public support. b. Brisbane

Brisbane‘s extensive busway system includes bus tunnels with underground busway stations in the city centre, at King George Square and Queen Street. The bus tunnels were intended to overcome surface capacity problems in the city centre and the South East Busway alone caters for some 200 buses per hour (see Figure 4-10: Brisbane Busway Plan

, Figure 4-11 and Figure 4-12).

Figure 4-10: Brisbane Busway Plan

Source: Brisbane City

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Figure 4-11: Brisbane Busway Peak Hourly Flows

Figure 4-12: Brisbane South East Busway Tunnel

4.7.3 Operating Assumptions

For Auckland, a bus tunnel alternative would aim to overcome surface capacity constraints, most notably on the north-south axis by grade-separating buses from surface traffic (including pedestrians and bicycles). However, as with the Seattle and Brisbane examples, a bus tunnel could not practically cater for all bus movements in the CBD and a number of bus routes could be expected to remain on surface streets – a bus tunnel option could not remove all buses from city streets.

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A bus tunnel would however, be compatible with the city‘s streetscape improvement objectives and would be more likely than a surface bus option to allow the city to cater for projected increases in pedestrian and cycle demand.

It is assumed that predominantly diesel buses would continue to be operated in Auckland and, for maximum flexibility, the tunnel would be designed (and ventilated) for diesel buses. The cost of ventilation and other mechanical, electrical and fire and life safety requirements of the bus tunnel could be reduced by use of hybrid or electric buses in the tunnel.

The tunnel would include underground bus stations with high quality passenger waiting lounges (see Wellington Street Bus Station in Perth Figure 4-13) with real-time information, air-conditioning and separation of passengers from bus roadways. The bus stations would be actively managed, with intelligent transport systems providing dynamic bus stop allocation to maximise efficiency of the stations.

Figure 4-13: High Quality Passenger Lounge in Bus Station

Source: PTA WA

4.7.4 Central Area Bus Tunnel Specification

A number of bus tunnel routes were considered, concluding the most beneficial bus tunnel option would run north-west through the CBD area, as illustrated in Figure 4-14.

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Figure 4-14: Central Area Bus Tunnel With 3 Stations

CBD Bus tunnel Tunnel length approx. 3 km

2- lane Bus tunnel Surface bus distributor Underground bus station

Table 4-4 summarises the operating pattern and the likely impact upon the CBD area of the Central Bus Tunnel with 3 stations.

Table 4-4 Summary of the Central Area Bus Tunnel

Central Area Bus Tunnel with 3 Stations

Tunnel Buses on the key north-south corridors would enter the Description tunnel outside the CBD motorway network. The tunnel would have access from McKinnon Drive and Khyber Pass Road (at its southern end) and Fanshawe Street at its northern end.

Surface Bus tunnel supplemented by surface bus corridor along the Description Fanshawe – Customs – Central Connector axis and in addition, a surface bus route along Queen Street (up to 30 buses per hour) would be required to improve rail passenger access midtown and upper CBD destinations

Stations Symmonds Street, Wynyard Quarter and the Civic Centre.

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Central Area Bus Tunnel with 3 Stations

Station Dimensions Three-Level underground stations with concourse connected and Capacity to platforms and stairs. Capacity and footprint as follows: Symmonds Street, Civic and Wynyard: 16 bus stands- 188m long by 28m wide

Access to Surface bus corridor along the Fanshawe – Customs – Britomart Central Connector axis

Access to Civic Centre station Albert Street

Access to Surface bus corridor along the Fanshawe – Customs – Symonds Street Central Connector axis

Access to/through In addition, a surface bus route along Queen Street (up to 30 Queen Street buses per hour) would be required to improve rail passenger access midtown and upper CBD destinations.

Impact on Surface Movements Tunnel would remove some 534 bus movements per hour (equivalent to a maximum capacity of around 37,000 passengers) from the surface streets. Up to 100 buses per hour would remain on the surface, operating via Fanshawe Street, Britomart and Symonds Street, stopping at a restructured Britomart bus station and also serving the University, as well as 30 buses per hour in Queen Street.

Routing Buses operating in the bus tunnel would be through-routed, with buses from the south and west continuing via BRT lanes across the Harbour Bridge to Takapuna; and buses from the north continuing via the bus tunnel to surface terminals/layovers at Newmarket and Onehunga. Extension of BRT measures beyond the CBD may be needed on an ongoing basis to maintain Bus Tunel capacity

Termini Construction of three major off-street bus terminals at Requirements Newmarket, Onehunga and Takapuna (with capacity for up to 100 buses each) Construction of two underground bus stations at Civic and Wynyard Quarter (based on recent cost estimates for Christchurch Transport Interchange and the Wellington Street bus station in Perth ($120 million and $170 million respectively), an indicative cost of $300-400 million for these facilities would be expected)

4.7.5 Operational Evaluation

A two-lane CBD bus tunnel would have ample capacity to accommodate the expected up to 534 bus movements per hour (two directions) assuming no crashes or breakdowns. The capacity

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constraint for the bus tunnel would be the operation of the bus stations as well as the level of traffic congestion on the shared road corridors beyond the tunnel. Efficient operation of the bus stations would be critical and would require active management of bus and pedestrian movements. Bus stations of this type are proven technology in New Zealand, though operating costs are high.

However a bus tunnel of this length would require safe exits in the case of fire, necessitating fire- proof separation. Each separate direction would then need to allow passing in the case of breakdowns, so would probably need to be two lanes, implying two by two-lane tunnels.

Extensive bus tunnels on the other hand are not used to date in New Zealand. In contrast to surface streets where options may exist for buses to bypass congestion, crashes or broken down buses, this may not be possible in a two-lane tunnel, so the efficient operation of the underground facilities would be susceptible to breakdowns and other incidents. In Seattle for example, a single bus breakdown has blocked southbound bus operations for 40 minutes during peak times.

In addition to BRT measures, such as grade separated junctions, being required in the CBD fringe areas to realise the bus tunnel throughput, it is likely that such measures will have to be extended further into the suburbs on a regular basis, in order to counter increasing traffic congestion on the routes leading to the tunnel where buses share road space with other traffic. Figure 4-15 provides an illustration of how the wider bus network would need to be extended over time to optimise a CBD bus tunnel.

Figure 4-15: Required Extension of Bus Infrastructure to Support a CBD Bus Tunnel

Bus tunnel

Busway

Quality Bus lane

Currently planned Quality Bus Lane

Of the required bus network extensions shown above, only the Dominion Road quality bus lane is currently planned for, meaning the other pieces of infrastructure would require additional planning and investment to bring them to fruition.

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4.7.6 Strategic Evaluation

A bus tunnel option would be compatible with the city‘s streetscape improvement objectives and would be more likely than a surface bus option to allow the city to cater for projected increases in pedestrian and cycle demand. However significant amounts of land would be required for the underground bus tunnels. Significant land acquisition would probably be needed and in practice it may not be feasible or politically acceptable to construct bus stations of the size required for capacity purposes.

The bus tunnel option would remove some 70 percent of bus movements from surface streets, but more than 100 buses per hour would still need to be accommodated in city streets at peak times, for those more local routes for which the bus tunnel would not be an option; and to ensure efficient servicing of the city centre.

4.8 Light Rail

Light rail has not been a mode of transport to and around the Auckland CBD since the 1950s when trams were replaced by buses across New Zealand. Since that time, some heritage lines have been reintroduced. The ARC has recently endorsed a heritage tramway being built in the Wynyard Quarter (Viaduct) area adjacent to the CBD before the 2011 Rugby World Cup but it is not clear whether this will proceed.

In the past Auckland City Council has investigated building at grade light rail systems on the Dominion Road corridor and on what is now the Central Connector high capacity bus route from Grafton to Britomart via Auckland Hospital and Symonds Street, but to date plans have not been included within transport strategy, presumably due to prohibitive costs.

Although the original design of the Britomart Transport centre provided for ramps for Light Rail Vehicles from the underground tracks to access Queen street, the subsequent upgrading of the heavy rail system and mixed freight and passenger operation on the current rail network now means that operation of light rail vehicles on the existing rail network is unlikely to be feasible.

For this reason, a light rail system in Auckland would require separate infrastructure from the present rail network. Through journeys would only be possible via changing modes at interchange points. Potentially the CBD Bus Loop alternative described in section 4.9 above could be operated using Light Rail vehicles instead of high capacity buses, but the fundamental issues with this alternative would still remain. A light rail system, sharing surface corridors with other road users could however act as a possible distributor system in conjunction with another mode providing the high capacity rapid transit system. Such a system would have more of the characteristic of a QTN service than that of an RTN service.

An at-grade street running light rail system without its own segregated right of way would potentially provide some limited additional capacity over a similar bus service, depending on the length of light rail vehicle that was permitted to be operated. However, it would suffer the same issues of poor service reliability caused by congestion from sharing streets with other users.

Use of electrically powered light rail vehicles in grade separated dedicated rights of way may result in some capital and operating cost reductions compared to the bus equivalent due to less ventilation systems being required; however the lack of ability to operate through services into the CBD from further afield using light rail, would limit the attractiveness of this alternative.

In summary, it would appear that light rail may be impractical for transport of large volumes of passengers to and around the CBD, primarily due to the need to implement an entirely new transport system in preference to the expansion of existing systems.

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4.9 Britomart Expansion

4.9.1 Capacity of Existing Auckland Rail Network

The current Auckland passenger rail system comprises four routes, totalling approximately 110 kilometres of line with 41 stations. The addition of the Manukau City Branch line and restoration of services to Huapai in 2011 will expand the passenger network to 113 km and 44 stations. Following completion of the current electrification project in 2013, electric trains will operate between Swanson, Papakura, Manukau City, Onehunga and Britomart. The network configuration after completion of the current Project DART and Auckland Electrification projects is shown in Figure 4-16

Figure 4-16 Post DART and Auckland Electrification Project Passenger Rail Network

To Helensville

Waitemata Harbour Britomart Waitakere Newmarket Swanson Mt Eden G len Innes

Westfield Jn. Onehunga O tahuhu

Manukau City

Manukau Harbour

Papakura

To Pukekohe

Historically the topography of central Auckland has resulted in the CBD not being directly served by the rail network, with trains only returning to the northern edge of the CBD after nearly 100 years‘ absence, with the opening of the Britomart Transport Centre in 2003.

The ability of the existing Auckland rail network to handle the projected growth in CBD transport demand that has been outlined in preceding sections of this Business Case is constrained by the current configuration of the station at Britomart which is configured as a terminus with five platforms (see Figure 4-17).

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Figure 4-17 Current Arrangement of Britomart Approach Tracks and Platforms

To Newmarket

Cityside track – 9 trains per hour

P5 P4 P3 P2 P1 To Glen Innes

Britomart Waterside track – 12 trains per hour - 21 trains per hour

The new signalling and train control system being provided as part of the electrification project will enable each of the two approach tracks into Britomart to be operated as independent bi-directional lines. KiwiRail has estimated that the maximum practical number of trains which will then be able to be operated into Britomart is around 21 trains per hour (tph), comprised of 9 tph from Newmarket and 12 via the waterfront line from Glen Innes. This imbalance in train paths results in there being only 2 platforms at Britomart to service trains from Newmarket compared to 3 for trains from Glen Innes.

ARTA‘s post DART and electrification peak period electric train timetable consists of 20 tph in and out of Britomart during Peak periods, comprised of 6 tph on each of the Southern, Western and Eastern routes, together with 2 tph from Onehunga refer to Figure 4-18. Thus by 2013, almost all of the useable train paths into and out of Britomart will be in use, providing virtually no room to add additional services in future.

Figure 4-18 Pre CBD Rail Link Electric Train Services

Britomart

Eastern

Southern Parnell (Proposed) Western

3 tph Onehunga

6 tph Glen Innes

Newmarket 3 tph Swanson 6 tph New Lynn 3 tph 3 tph Notes

Onehunga 1) All services operate at same inbound and outbound peak period frequencies (i.e 6tph to 2 tph Britomart and 6tph from Britomart) 2) Diesel shuttle services from Huapai to Henderson and Pukekohe to Papkura NOT shown as common to Pre- CBD Rail Link and all CBD Rail Link Scenarios Pre-CBD Rail Link Auckland Electric Rail Services 6 tph Manukau City

6 tph

Papakura

Note that the diesel shuttle services that will also operate from Huapai to Henderson and Pukekohe to Papakura have been omitted for clarity, but are assumed to continue operating after the CBD Rail Link is completed.

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Outside of Britomart however, the new post electrification signalling system will provide for the following maximum numbers of trains to be operated per hour (Table 4-5):

Table 4-5 Maximum Capacity for EMus provided by Post Electrification Signalling System

Line Section Trains Per Hour (in each direction)

Papakura- Westfield 15

Manukau City- Wiri 15 1)

Westfield- Newmarket 20

Onehunga- Penrose (single track) 15 1)

Swanson- Morningside 15

Morningside- Newmarket 20

Westfield- Britomart 20

Newmarket- Britomart 22

Note 1) Equivalent to 4 minute headways for following trains on single line

Whilst operation of both freight and passenger trains will in practice limit the maximum throughput of trains over some sections of the network, it is evident that the current configuration of Britomart as a terminus constrains the ability to exploit the latent capacity that will exist on the rest of the Auckland rail network after resignalling.

Post electrification, passenger services will be operated largely by electric multiple unit (EMU) trains (6 cars long on all routes except for 3 cars on the Onehunga line), with a planned seated plus standing capacity of 385 for a 3 car EMU and 770 for a 6 car. Therefore ARTA‘s proposed 20 tph service would provide around a hourly carrying capacity of around 16100- 16200 passengers into Britomart, although the actual numbers of CBD passengers able to be transported by rail will in practice be determined by the number of passengers travelling to intermediate destinations such as Newmarket.

4.9.2 Description

Operational modelling undertaken for ARTA by Plateway Consultants16 identified that

“The ultimate capacity of each of the single lines leading into the (Britomart) terminal was demonstrated to be 15 train pairs per hour. Above this service level the rail service will fail to meet ARTA’s targets for punctuality. To use capacity of above 12 train pairs per hour the single line has to have access to three platform faces. With below 12 train pairs per hour, only two platform faces are required at Britomart.”

On this basis if there were three single lines into Britomart, each operated as bi- directional entry and access tracks, and connecting to two platform faces each, then in theory the capacity of the Britomart terminus would be increased to 36 trains per hour (effectively double the current

16 Source Plateway report for ARTA Inner City Capacity Study 2008

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capacity), although in practice train turnaround times with may reduce the actual maximum number of services. In addition it would probably be necessary to provide a third bi-directional track between Newmarket and Quay Park Junction, to provide additional capacity for Western, Southern and Onehunga services. Whilst this approach would provide additional capacity to the CBD, rail would continue to only serve the periphery of the CBD area, therefore effectively limiting the catchment for CBD rail journeys to those passengers within 400-500m distance of Britomart.

Figure 4-19: Britomart Expansion

As noted above, it is understood that ARTA and KiwiRail are currently investigating whether spare space at Britomart within the underground train shed, originally intended for light rail ramps up to surface level, could be converted into a sixth platform, it is quite likely that such a platform would be of adequate dimensions to support 12 trains per hour. Therefore it would probably be necessary to construct a new entry tunnel and underground island platform (with two platform faces) beside Britomart under Tyler Streets (Figure 4-19) or, with passenger subways providing connections to the existing station.

4.9.3 Infrastructure Requirements

The technical feasibility of this approach would need to be verified however preliminary assessment suggests that extensive property acquisition would be required for this alternative, some of which includes recently constructed apartment blocks. In addition it is likely that the construction of the additional entry track and platforms would result in significant disruptions to rail services due to the proximity of the construction works to the existing tracks and station. Land ownership issues in the Quay Park Junction, where most of the land apart from the current rail corridor is now owned by Ngati Whatua, could also constrain the design and construction of this alternative.

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Alterations to the existing Britomart station to provide access to / from the new platforms would be required and in addition modifications to existing station access / egress arrangements to reduce overcrowding are likely to be required as passenger numbers increase.

In addition the third track to Newmarket would require extra bridge spans for the three rail overbridges between Quay Park and Newmarket, together with an additional bore for the Parnell tunnel under the Domain. If feasible, the current disused single track tunnel beside the present double track Parnell tunnel could be enlarged.

Efficient operation of a rail system into a terminus station requires provision of train stabling sidings nearby to the terminus, so that empty trains can be taken out of service at the end of the morning peak and then brought back for the evening peak with the minimum of empty running. Plans by ARTA to establish such stabling sidings near to Britomart in either the old Strand Site or near to Tamaki Drive, have so far not been successful due to conflicting requirements for available land for rail freight sidings serving the Port. A doubling of the effective capacity of the capacity of Britomart would both increase the amount of land required for stabling and make train paths for empty train movements to further afield stabling sites more difficult to schedule.

4.9.4 Operational Evaluation

Whilst an expanded Britomart station would appear to be one way of increasing the capacity of the Auckland rail network, it still retains the operational disadvantages of the the current terminus configuration, in that empty trains have to exit the station using the same tracks as following trains awaiting to enter the station. As noted above, city termini require nearby train stabling yards to efficiently deal with such empty trains. These problems would be avoided by a through station configuration where trains exit platforms at the opposite end ot the station to which they arrive.

The effective increase in rail capacity to the CBD which would be obtained through the expanded Britomart alternative may well be constrained by the maximum number of passengers which can safely enter and exit the station and board and alight from trains. This is likely to be driven by factors such as:

 Platform widths

 Numbers of entrances and exits from platforms and the station

 Restrictions imposed by fire regulations, building consents or other agencies

 Effective means of distributing persons arriving at Britomart to their final destinations across the CBD. Additional bus services, or ultimately a Light Rail system may be required to achieve this.

4.9.5 Strategic Evaluation

Although expanding Britomart as outlined above would be technically complex and entail significant disruption for both rail passengers and affected land owners, it would appear that this alternative would provide additional capacity for journeys to the CBD. However the station will still be on the periphery of the CBD and so is likely to be less attractive for passengers with origins or destinations beyond the immediate vicinity of the station.

The existing poor accessibility by rapid transit to the central and southern parts of the CBD would continue under this alternative, which may make these areas less attractive to businesses and retail outlets over time. Provision of further office and residential accommodation to cater for the projected increase in CBD employement and population may tend to cluster around the northern end of the CBD, along the waterfront and Wynyard quarter areas as a result.

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4.10 CBD Rail Link

4.10.1 Description

The proposed CBD Rail Link is an approximately 3.5 km double track underground rail line running beneath the central business district from Britomart to the Western (North Auckland Line) near the existing Mount Eden Station. Britomart would become a ‗through‘ station and would be modified to suit this new purpose. The proposed route and station locations are shown in Figure 4-20Error! Reference source not found..

Up to three intermediate underground stations are proposed:

 Aotea (under Albert St between Wellesley and Victoria Sts)

 Karangahape Rd (under the intersection of Pitt St and Karanagahape Rd)

 Newton (under Symonds St between the intersections with Khyber Pass/ Newton Rd and Mt Eden and New North Roads)

Eastern and western junctions with the North Auckland Line at Mt Eden are proposed. These will provide both operational flexibility and permit a variety of service patterns to be operated

The topography of central Auckland, together with the operational constraints for rail vehicles, results in the CBD Rail Link having steep gradients and deep underground stations over most of its route. There is an approximate 76 metre difference in elevation between Britomart and the Western line at Mt Eden and in addition the tunnels have to pass at sufficient depth beneath the Central Motorway Junction to avoid impacting motorway operations.

Twin tunnels, each having an outside diameter of approximately 7m, will be provided, connected by cross passages at a minimum spacing of 240m, for evacuation purposes. The tunnels will be constructed by a combination of Tunnel Boring Machines and Cut and Cover construction methods.

The three stations have provision for underground island platforms (maximum 170m long or equivalent to a 7 car long train), connected to subsurface concourses via escalators and lifts. The station depths vary between 18m below the surface at Aotea and 43m below ground at Newton.

A long section and gradient profile of the route is shown in Figure 4-21. For further details please refer to the Auckland CBD Rail Link Study- Concept Design Report September 2010.

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 69 of 109 Appendix D

Figure 4-20 Proposed CBD Rail Link Route and Station Locations

Figure 4-21 Proposed CBD Rail Link Long Section and Gradient Profile

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 70 of 109 Appendix D

4.10.2 Route Selection The concept of an underground railway through the Auckland CBD has been proposed and studied on several occasions since before the First World War; however none of these schemes has progressed beyond planning stages. Since Britomart was opened in 2003, a number of studies have been undertaken by the Auckland City Council and subsequently ARTA on the feasibility of connecting Britomart to the Western Line at Mt Eden. These studies formed the basis for a comprehensive assessment of alternative routes and station locations undertaken during Phase 1 of the CBD Rail Link Study in late 2009, as required under the Resource Management Act for Notice of Requirement Applications.

Eleven technically feasible routes and eleven station locations were developed (refer to Figure 4-22) and subsequently assessed using a two stage multi-criteria assessment process. The criteria were developed from KiwiRail and ARTA‘s objectives for the project and were designed to identify the number and optimal location of stations along the route, taking into account factors such as proximity to surface activities, other transport services, environmental impacts and technical feasibility. It was identified during this phase of the study that there was little difference in overall length of route between those with only one station (Aotea) and those with two or three stations, and as there was insufficient information available about the costs and benefits of the stations at that time, the decision was taken to identify the optimal three station route, for subsequent further development and assessment during Phase 2 of the station (Concept Design and Business Case). For further details please refer to the CBD Rail Link Study-Options Evaluation Report (Draft) January 2010.

The preferred route and station locations for the CBD Rail Link, shown in Error! Reference source ot found. Figure 4-20 were accepted by KiwiRail and ARTA in February 2010.

Figure 4-22 CBD Rail Link Study Phase 1 Route and Station Location Options

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 71 of 109 Appendix D

4.10.3 Impacts of CBD Rail Link In summary, the CBD Rail Link will:

 Provide greatly improved penetration of the CBD by rail, with most locations being within 500m of a station (seeFigure 4-23). Table 4-6 shows the estimated CBD population and CBD jobs located within 500m of a railway station, with and without, the CBD Rail Link. It should be noted that all of the projected 2041 CBD population of 102,000 and 99% of the 122,000 CBD jobs projected forecast by the RLTS, will be within 500m or 10 minutes walk of a railway station.

Table 4-6: CBD Population and Jobs within 500m of a Railway Station 2016 2041 (RLTS) Popn. Jobs Popn. Jobs Without CBD Rail Link 25536 38552 37788 55159

With CBD Rail Link 67737 79529 104850 121749

 Reduce overall journey times for rail trips starting or finishing in the central and southern parts of the CBD, particularly for Western line passengers from west of Mt Eden, whose overall journey times would be expected to be reduced by at least 15 minutes compared to the current rail journey via Newmarket and Britomart

 Provide a catalyst for land use intensification and regeneration of areas surrounding the new stations

 Enable a reduction in the number of bus services running into the CBD, by reconfiguring services in areas served by rail (for example New North Rd), to form feeder services to connect with rail services. This will free up CBD road lanes to provide more capacity for bus services from parts of the isthmus and North Shore, not served by rail.

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 72 of 109 Appendix D

Figure 4-23 Catchment of CBD and CBD Fringe Rail Stations

4.10.4 Operational Evaluation The CBD Rail Link will only be suitable for use by electrically powered passenger trains due to its steep gradients and long tunnel sections. KiwiRail has advised that the fire rating of the existing SA/ SD carriage trains is not compatible with extended operation in tunnels, so it has been assumed that all passenger services using the CBD Rail Link will be operated by the new Electric Multiple Units (EMU) currently being procured by KiwiRail. Maximum train length is assumed to be 6 carriages (approximately 144m long).

Although the final number of EMUs to be purchased has not yet been finalised, for the purpose of this Business Case it has been assumed that all electric train services prior to the opening of the CBD Rail Link will be operated by EMUs.

Operational simulations of the CBD Rail Link by KiwiRail indicates that the theoretical capacity of the rail link between Britomart and Mt Eden, is between 15 and 30 trains per hour in each direction,

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 73 of 109 Appendix D

depending on the configuration of the signalling system which is provided.17. This would provide the maximum available hourly passenger carrying capacities shown in Table 4-7

The capacity that will be provided to the CBD by CBD Rail Link services may in practice be rather less than these theoretical figures as service levels provided will be a function of passenger demand in the catchments served by rail , numbers of trains available and capacity constraints elsewhere on the network. Nevertheless comparison with the current capacity limits of the existing Britomart Terminus station (21 tph) shows that the CBD Rail Link will provide considerable potential for future growth and network expansion .

Table 4-7 CBD Rail Link Maximum Available Hourly Passenger Carrying Capacities Trains per Hour (in each Number of Services serving Hourly max capacity (6 car direction) through CBD Rail CBD stations per Hour EMUS with 1.6 SSR*) Link 15- base level signalling 30 23100

30- enhanced signalling 60 46200

*SSR is Seating Standing Ratio- a SSR of 1.6 equates to 6 passengers standing for every 10 seated passengers

4.10.5 .Infrastructure Requirements

For the purposes of the long list of alternatives assessment, two CBD Rail Link variants have been included:

1) CBD Rail Link with three intermediate stations- This would provide both the additional transport capacity to the CBD plus the accessibility and land use regeneration potential provided by the additional 3 stations at Aotea, Karangahape Rd and Newton 2) CBD Rail Link with no new intermediate stations- This is a somewhat artificial alternative, which would address the capacity constraints at Britomart, but not provide the accessibility, journey time savings and regeneration potential that the additional stations would offer. It has been included as a comparison with the Expanded Britomart alternative outlined in Section 4.12.

17 Source KiwiRail OPENTRACK simulation Report for CBD Rail-Link- July 2010

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 74 of 109 Appendix D

5 Assessment Criteria

5.1 Identification of Assessment Criteria

The criteria used in the alternatives assessment should reflect the objectives for development of Auckland‘s transport system. These objectives have been formulated over a number of policy and planning studies over the last ten years. The key themes in these studies are for transport to support Auckland‘s land use objectives and protection of the environment. The Auckland CBD is of regional and national importance, being identified as a significant growth centre:

 for accommodating future growth in Auckland under a compact city model (under the Regional Growth Strategy); and

 for assisting central government in lifting national economic performance.

Previous studies have found that the Auckland transport network is characterised by relatively high levels of congestion and that the resultant poor accessibility characteristics may be constraining Auckland from realising the economic benefits often associated with scale and density. Improving Auckland‘s accessibility requires a longer-term, economic development focused approach, with the likely solution being a combination of options with both shorter-term and longer-term benefits.

We have adopted the following broad criteria as best encapsulating the most important factors contributing to the assessment of transport options from longer-term economic development and sustainability perspectives:

 Strategic fit

 Patronage

 Cost

 Benefit

 Environmental and sustainability

Each of these criteria has a number of indicators that contribute to the value of the criteria. These are set out below.

5.2 Description of Assessment Criteria

5.2.1 Strategic Fit a. Be consistent with the high-level strategies for achieving the vision of the Regional Land Transport Strategy (2010), as discussed in section 3.4, including the strategic priorities identified; and for the objectives underpinning the delivery of those priorities b. Support growth and development of the CBD and region with the view to making the CBD and waterfront an international business and cultural destination

The ability of the transport initiative to provide for jobs growth to/from and within the CBD and growth and expansion for the population in the Auckland region.

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c. Align with Auckland City Council CBD Urban Design objectives.

The transport solution aligns with the Council’s vision for Auckland City urban design objectives d. Optimise efficiency and potential of the Rapid Transit Network

The transport solution needs to be able to move large numbers of individuals around efficiently, while providing opportunities to integrate with the Rapid Transport Network.

5.2.2 Patronage a. Optimise patronage and accessibility to/from and within the CBD

The ability of the transport initiative to attract the highest level of patronage and provide access for commuters to/from and within the CBD. b. Maximises peak period ridership

The degree to which a transport initiative is able to deal with peak periods of commuting to/from and within the CBD. c. Attracts high ridership levels at other times

The level of attractiveness of the transport initiative to non peak commuters to/from and within the CBD.

5.2.3 Cost a. Cost: Minimise Whole of Life Costs

To score highly on this criteria, a transport system would need to have low whole of life costs, comprising capital and operating costs. b. Minimise disruption

Journey time impacts and loss of journey amenity during construction

Disruption to other travellers and local businesses and residents during construction, being travel time impacts, and loss of business and amenity

Disruption to other travellers and local businesses and residents during operation, being travel time impacts, and loss of business and amenity is included in Transport Benefits

5.2.4 Benefit a. Transport Benefits - Conventional

The ability of the transport initiative to reduce Auckland’s traffic congestion and thereby produce benefits through travel time savings etc. b. Non–Transport Benefits

 Wider economic benefits

The ability of the transport initiative to generate wider economic benefits to the community.

 Land value impacts

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 76 of 109 Appendix D

The ability of the transport initiative to impact on land values c. Environmental/Sustainability

 Fuel Consumption

The ability of the transport initiative to reduce the volume of fuel consumed.

 Emissions

The ability of the transport initiative to reduce carbon emissions from the transport system.

 Local Air Quality

The ability of the transport initiative to improve local air quality.

 Public Transport Mode Shift

The ability of the transport initiative to facilitate a shift to public transport from private car use (i.e. capacity to engender a behavioural change amongst current and future network users).

5.3 Ranking Scale

Criteria have been ranked using a 4 point scale:

 3 – High Impact/Outcome

 2 – Moderate Impact/Outcome

 1 – Low Impact/Outcome

 0- No Impact/Outcome

The criteria and weights used in the MCA were agreed in consultation with ARTA and kiwirail and have been designed so that higher ranked outcomes are preferable to lower ranked.

5.4 Weightings

The evaluation criteria in the MCA rarely have the same weightings. Typically, a few criteria are much more important and should therefore be given much higher weightings.

Table 5-1 shows two suggested sets of weights – uniform and non-uniform – with higher weights for costs and conventional transport benefits.

Table 5-1: Criteria Weights Uniform Non-uniform Alternatives Weights Weights Support Growth and Development of the CBD and Region 1 5 Optimise Patronage and Accessibility To/From and Within 1 5 the CBD Align with Auckland City Council CBD Urban Design 1 5 Objectives Optimise Efficiency and Potential of the Rapid Transit 1 5 Network Patronage Growth - Peak 1 2 Patronage Growth - Average 1 2 Minimises Whole of Life Costs 1 10

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Minimise Disruption 1 2 Transport Benefits - Conventional 1 10 Non-Transport Benefits 1 2 Environ-mental / Sustainability 1 4

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 78 of 109 Appendix D

6 Evaluation of Alternatives This section applies the criteria developed above to the most realistic set of alternatives, to sort through these investment options and find the projects that most closely align with the requirements of providing additional transport capacity into the CBD.

6.1 The Viable Set of Alternatives

The comprehensive list of thirteen transport policy measures highlighted in Table 4.1 and described in more detail in Section 4 is reduced to just four to go through the multi-criteria analysis. These four options consist of:

 Option 7 – increased bus usage on surface streets

 Option 9 – Central area bus tunnel with three stations

 Option 11 – Expanded Britomart terminus

 Option 13 – CBD Rail Link with three stations

Of the other measures that were considered, the discussion around the characteristics of each of these in Section 4 has eliminated them from further consideration. In summary, these measures were:

 Alternative modes – including Travel Demand Management and increased walking and cycling. These measures are important and useful components of an overall transport plan because they help to distribute the demand on the transport network, particularly at local points, which helps to relieve congestion. However, by themselves these measures are not related to high- capacity transport provision over longer distances.

 The road based measures – including increased car usage and increasing road provision, are unworkable based upon the narrowness of the Auckland isthmus and the resulting scarcity of land. The existing road network is already congested, while the financial and economic costs of further land acquisition to build more roads, especially closer in to the CBD, render these options unviable.

 Increased ferry usage is restricted in its capability to provide more capacity by virtue of its primary locations and service patterns (predominantly the North Shore), which will not address the bulk of the transport demand.

 A CBD bus loop – consisting of a high quality service circling and running through the CBD. The option is not considered viable because of the impact upon passengers, with services terminating outside the CBD, potentially resulting in a drop in demand. Additional bus priority measures within the CBD would also be required under this option.

 Light rail – either for use around the CBD or as a transport mode for getting to the CBD would require significant investment in enabling through services services to the CBD from outside the area. This would involve sharing the existing network corridors with other vehicles, bringing about disruption to cars and buses.

 CBD Rail Link with no stations – this would essentially provide through routing for trains coming into the CBD and alleviating the constraint posed by the current situation terminating services at Britomart. However, increased volumes coming into Britomart would cause congestion in 2041 without upgrades; while the absence of additional stations located through the CBD removes the advantage of being able to distribute commuters around the CBD and abrogates any Transit Oriented development and CBD regeneration potential.

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 79 of 109 Appendix D

Therefore, the four options selected for further analysis present the most realistic possibilities for delivering high capacity public transport services into the CBD through to 2041. How they compare to each other is discussed next.

6.2 Summary of Ranking

The four viable alternatives were scored at a workshop held on 10 August 2010, with the four projects carried forward qualitatively evaluated against the criteria developed in section 5, based upon the information and discussion presented in section 4. The outcome of this exercise is summarised in Table 6-1.

Table 6-1: Summary of Alternative Investment Ranking Exercise Alternatives Uniform Weight Non- Uniform Weights On Surface Bus Route Improvements 1.64 1.52 Central Area Bus Tunnel- 3 Stations 2.27 2.23 Expanded Britomart Terminus 1.64 1.67 CBD Rail Link-3 Stations 2.73 2.58

The outcome of the assessment shows that the CBD Rail Loop with 3 stations and the Central Area Bus Tunnel with 3 stations score most highly, using both uniform and non-uniform weights. The other two options have lower scores in terms of delivering acceptable outcomes for the investment made.

Table 6-2 shows the scoring of the four alternatives against the assessment criteria, the results of which were used to generate the uniformly and non-uniformly weighted rankings. A brief discussion relating the scoring for each alternative to the broad evaluation criteria is given below.

6.2.1 Support the growth and development of the CBD

The benefits derived from each potential scheme will support the ongoing growth and development of the CBD. Conventional transport benefits, such as travel time savings and congestion reduction, aid the development of the CBD by making it a more attractive and easily reached destination. Non- transport benefits include wider economic benefits through increased employment density and business concentration, and higher land values driven from redevelopment opportunities created by transport. The assessment for each of these factors is briefly summarised in the following points:

 Conventional transport benefits are judged to be greater for the Central Bus Tunnel and the CBD Rail Link because each of these schemes removes traffic, in the form of cars and buses, from the CBD and surrounds, improving congestion and access for other modes. The priority that these two options are also likely to command in their respective corridors also means improved travel times into the CBD.

 Non-transport benefits are likely to be greatest for the CBD Rail Link. The overseas literature review conducted as part of this business case process (see Appendix J) showed that rail based transit had greater impacts upon land values and development, compared to bus based transit (particularly in the America). While the Britomart option is also rail based, it has tended to focus development in a narrow area of the CBD, whereas the three additional stations under the CBD Rail Link scheme potentially spread Transit Oriented Development across wider areas of the CBD.

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Overall, the CBD Rail Link scores more highly for supporting the growth and development of the CBD because the benefits associated with the project are as good as, and in some cases better than, the other three alternatives.

6.2.2 Optimise patronage

For a scheme to be successful in the long-term it must be of sufficient quality to attract patronage onto the service and retain it. Judgements about the capability of each scheme to optimise patronage are summarised in the following points:

 On-surface bus improvements and the expanded Britomart terminus both still have capacity constraints associated with them. The on-surface bus improvements are limited by the available road space in and around the CBD, while the Britomart terminus faces restrictions in terms of platform expansion and running trains into and out of the station. This places upper bounds upon both the growth rate and volume of patronage possible from theses schemes.

 The CBD Rail Link and the Central Bus Tunnel bring additional capacity into the CBD via new infrastructure that specifically deals with the potential throughput of both buses and trains.

 The CBD Rail Link and the Central Bus Tunnel both offer more flexibility and therefore capability to modify public transport service patterns to promote the attractiveness of public transport travel across a wider part of the day outside peak hours.

The CBD Rail Link and the Central Bus tunnel are the schemes most likely to optimise patronage growth over the long-term and therefore score more highly on this issue than the other two schemes.

6.2.3 Minimise costs

Cost minimisation through lowest overall whole of life costs and minimum disruption during the construction phase are important issues to consider for scheme analysis. The following points summarise the judgements formed about scheme costs:

 The options requiring the most construction activity – the CBD Rail Link and the Central Bus Tunnel, are not the lowest cost options. The new infrastructure within the CBD is likely to require investment in new buses and trains to maximise service patterns and also require tweaks to the wider operating networks to maximise efficiency. The CBD Bus Tunnel would be the most expensive in this regard, because of the likely ongoing changes to the road network to maintain scheme benefits in the face of increasing demand for road space.

 On-surface bus improvements offer both the lowest whole of life costs and minimal disruptions to the existing networks because there are no significant changes to infrastructure. Any works that are undertaken would be relatively minor in nature and specific to certain sites at certain times and scheduled to cause minimal disruption.

 The Britomart terminus option provides relatively low whole of life costs because of lower ongoing investment and lower wider network modifications required once the terminus has been expanded. However, it would have more disruption impact than the CBD Rail Link because the Britomart station would have to remain closed for longer while the sides of the existing tunnel are widened.

Overall, on-surface bus improvements were judged to provide both the lowest whole of life costs and minimum disruption to the network during construction. The CBD Rail Link and the Central Bus Tunnel, both requiring significant new construction of infrastructure, were second to last and last respectively.

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6.2.4 Environmental sustainability

Environmental sustainability is concerned with minimising the impacts that transport has on both the natural environment and the human environment in terms of issues such as pollution, emissions and health impacts. The following points summarise the scoring for each of the options around environmental factors:

 Because of their lesser impacts upon patronage growth during and outside the peak, the on- surface bus improvements and the Britomart terminus schemes are likely to have less impact on fuel consumption and emissions because they do not encourage the shift from private vehicles onto public transport as strongly as the other options.

 These schemes are also likely to have lower impacts on public health because of the lower expected subsititution. These impacts will come about due to lower improvements in local air quality and fewer people likely to combine walking and cycling into their journey.

 Both the CBD Rail Link and the Britomart terminus would take advantage of the shift to electric powered trains, which provide improvements in terms of lower fuel consumption, less emissions and improved air quality. The degree of difference between these two schemes is reflected in the view that the CBD Rail Link will be attractive to more passengers, be conducive to more journeys, and replace more vehicle kilometres off the road network.

 In the long-run, diesel buses will become more efficient (by Euro standards), or buses will be powered by alternative power systems (hybrids and all-electrics), which will improve the overall level of emissions from the bus fleet. In the short to medium term reliance will still be placed on vehicles in the existing fleet until their useful lives expire.

Therefore the CBD Rail Link was judged to be the best contributor to environmental improvements of the four scemes assessed.

6.2.5 Strategic fit

The strategic fit is a test as to whether each project will add value to the policy, planning and operational aspects of managing and running the transport network in Auckland. The following points were considered duing the assessment for strategic fit:

 The CBD Rail Link comes closest to fulfilling the functionality requirements for the Rapid Transit Network because it provides high capacity network backbone that connects regional centres along high density corridors, facilitating high speed and consistent reliability. It also has the greatest capacity to influence urban land use through Transit Oriented Development.

 The other schemes do not fulfil this role as completely or to the greater degree that the CBD Rail Link accomplishes. This is because Britomart is the constraint in the rail network, while the bus schemes depend upon sharing existing corridors with other modes at points on the wider network (see discussion in section 4).

 The CBD Rail Link with three stations and the Central Bus Tunnel are also more likely to fulfil the requirements of Auckland City‘s CBD and waterfront strategies by improving connectivity around the CBD and with the waterfront, while providing a safer and better environment for cyclists and pedestrians in the area.

 The CBD Rail Link provides the best alignment with the RLTS 2010, in terms of supporting compact urban forms and land use objectives, helping to change travel behaviours away from private vehicles, provides continuity of major investment in public transport and services, improves existing roads by reducing congestions, limits the need for additional road capacity and reduces transport impacts on the natural environment and communities.

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From a strategic perspective the closest alignment to the region‘s strategies and Auckland city‘s urban design objectives for the CBD, is provided by the CBD Rail Link.

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Table 6-2: Detailed Assessment of Alternatives

Costs

ability

average

and and region

Alternatives

conventional

within CBD the

Transit Network Transit

Design objectives Design

Council CBD Urban Urban Council CBD

Transport benefits - benefits Transport

Patronage Growth - Growth Patronage

Minimise Disruption

Support growth Support and growth

potential of the Rapid potential of the

Non-Transport Benefits Non-Transport

Optimise efficiency and Optimise efficiency

Minimises Whole of Life

Optimise patronage and Optimise patronage

development of the CBD CBD of development the to/from accessibility and

Align City with Auckland Environ-mental/ Sustain- Patronage Growth - peak Growth Patronage On surface bus route 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 improvements Central Area Bus Tunnel & 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 1 3 2 2 stations Britomart as terminus with 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 increased capacity CBD Rail Link - 3 stations 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 3

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7 Cost Effectiveness Analysis

7.1 Summary This section analyses the relative cost effectiveness of the two shortlisted options as a means of sharpening the ranking. This analysis:

 Uses broad level costs estimates for buses and detailed design estimates based on design work for the CBD rail link for rail;

 Considers only the financial costs of implementing the schemes. User costs and benefits, such as travel time savings or wider economic benefits are not considered at this stage.

Table 7-1 below summarises the net present value of costs over a 30 year period (discounted back to 2010 at the NZ Treasury recommended rate of 8%, with sensitivities at 6% and 4% as shown in Table 7-2). It is important to understand that the net present cost estimates are for the purpose of ranking only and are not capital costs of construction, as the latter are yet to be approved for publication.

The CBD Rail Link with 3 stations has net present costs of $1,513m, which is approximately 60% of the net present cost of $2,640m for the Central Area bus tunnel with 3 stations.

Table 7-1 Summary of Net Present Costs ($m NPV, 2010 terms, 8% Discount) CBD Rail Link with 3 Central Bus tunnel Alternative Stations with 3 stations

Total Net Present Cost $1,520 $2,640

Capital Net Present Cost $1,370 $2,390

Operating Net Present $150 $250 Cost

Table 7-2 shows that these rankings are not sensitive to the choice of discount rate, because the rail and bus tunnels are assumed to have similar construction periods.

Table 7-2 Sensitivities ($m NPV, 2010 terms) CBD Rail Link Central Bus Ratio of CBD rail with 3 Stations tunnel with 3 / bus tunnel Discount rate stations

4% real $2,230 $3,750 59%

6% real $1,820 $3,120 58%

8% real $1,520 $2,640 58%

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7.2 Assumptions and Parameters

The following assessment parameters were adopted for the analysis, which are consistent with NZ Treasury appraisal guidelines:

 Discount rate of 8%.

 Assessment period of 30 years.

 All costs are discounted to 2010.

 All values in NZ dollars.

Assumptions used in the analysis are documented in Table 7-3.

Table 7-3: Assumptions Model Assumptions Construction of each alternative will finish by December 2020 Where possible, costs have been taken from a concept design report dated 22 September 2010 (not approved for release) Design, planning, project management and client costs are assumed to be 18% of construction costs, based on CBD Rail Link design study Bus tunnel construction costs are based on Auckland rail tunnel, pro-rated by cross-sectional area. Cost of new rolling stock is brought through in discrete components based upon order batches As explained in Appendix F, 24 3-car sets are assumed by mid 2021 and an additional 26 sets by mid 2031. Bus loop tunnel operating costs are based on costing undertaken for the F3 to Sydney Orbital Link Ventilation of the tunnel is needed, incurring capital cost of $5m per km plus operating costs. Over time the switch to higher standard (e.g. Euro 5) buses, hybrids and other forms of power, will reduce emissions. However, older buses tend to cycle through the fleet based upon useful lives, so it is likely that diesel buses will still be using the tunnel.

7.3 Cost Assessment This section summarises the cost assessment. Further details are contained in an annex (not yet approved for release).

Detailed design work has not been undertaken for Central Area bus tunnel. Instead, the assessment uses unit rates based on rail tunnels. Bus station costs have also been estimated. Bus estimates are therefore subject to uncertainty.

The net present cost of construction depends on timing as well as total cost. The two alternatives are assumed to take 5 years to construct and to be complete and operating from 1 July 2021. It has been assumed that any property acquisition would take place in 2012, reflecting the NZ system of notice of requirement.

The analysis also includes estimates of operating costs for infrastructure and rolling stock.

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8 Description of Benefits This paper does not seek to quantify the benefits of either the CBD Rail Link with three stations or the Central Area Bus Tunnel with three stations, but instead assumes that the benefits of both are comparable, say $B million present value. This is based upon the similarity of benefits achieved from the delivery of significant public transport capacity into the CBD.

The difference in costs is then sufficient to imply that the benefit / cost ratio is higher for the CBD Rail Link than for the Bus Tunnel, as shown below:

CBD Rail Link benefit/cost ratio = $B / $1,520

Bus Tunnel benefit/cost ratio = $B / $2,640

Therefore the benefit / cost ratio of the CBD Rail Link is approximately 1.7 times that of the Central Area Bus Tunnel - inversely proportional because the costs of rail are approximately 60%. On this basis at least, the Rail Link should be carried through to the main business case. Quantitative analysis of the benefits will be undertaken for the business case report, to confirm whether benefits exceed costs (for the CBD Rail Link only)

In accordance with the multi-criteria analysis, benefits comprise conventional transport benefits, wider economic benefits and other, non-transport benefits.

8.1 Conventional Transport Benefits The CBD Rail Link with three stations and the Central Area Bus Tunnel with three stations both deliver passengers more widely around the CBD, in ways that are not subject to surface congestion. They therefore should have similar benefits in terms of decreasing travel time.

The bus tunnel enables buses from the North Shore to pass through the CBD and link with the western edge. The CBD rail link does not provide this benefit, so an adjustment is needed to facilitate comparison. Without undertaking significant amounts of modelling, it is difficult to estimate any additional transport benefits of the North Shore bus connection.

Instead, APB&B has estimated the cost of enhancing the CBD rail link alternative by adding an improved surface bus connection from the harbour bridge to the CBD. APB&B has estimated that such a connection should cost no more than $300 million (present cost $220 million). The difference in cost between CBD rail link and Central Area bus tunnel is $1,025 million in present value terms, which far exceeds the additional cost needed to provide the bus connection.

The benefit/cost ratio for the CBD rail link including North Shore bus connection is:

$B / ($1,520 + $220) = $B/$1,740, which is 1.5 times the ratio for the bus tunnel.

Taking account of the North Shore bus connection therefore does not change the conclusion that the rail link is the alternative with highest benefit cost ratio.

8.2 Wider Economic Benefits The CBD Rail Link with three stations and the Bus Tunnel with three stations should have similar agglomeration benefits, as both provide high capacity connections to a few locations around the CBD. The underlying principle of agglomeration benefits is that density drives productivity. Therefore, increasing the potential effective density in an area already possessing

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 87 of 109 Appendix D

significant business and employment concentrations, such as the CBD, will provide beneficial impacts for the regional economy and beyond.

8.3 Non-Transport Benefits Non-transport benefits include:

 increases in land value that are not included as conventional transport benefits and are not included as wider economic benefits; and

 environmental benefits such as the reduction in the amount of land sterilised by surface transport purposes, provide by underground transportation systems. .

The potential size of such benefits is being analysed as part of the business case.

It is worthwhile noting here that US experience indicates that rail stations also have a greater beneficial impact on land values than bus stations, possibly because of the perceived permanence that a rail line and station engender. This difference however might be less between an underground rail and an underground bus line, both of which having high quality stations.

A portion of this beneficial increase in land values can be potentially harnessed as a funding mechanism through value capture principles, which is something that will be explored under the detailed business case.

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9 Summary and Conclusions

This section summarises the rankings produced by the two different assessment methods, namely multi-criteria analysis and cost effectiveness analysis, relative to the descriptive benefits which were assumed to be reasonably consistent between the options. While there would clearly be differences in the benefit profiles between rail and bus, based upon service patterns etc, high capacity public transport infrastructure has a set of outcomes (and associated benefits) that it is trying to deliver. On the assumption that the benefits of both the CBD Rail Link and the Central Area Bus Tunnel are in this manner broadly equal, the CBD Rail Link is ranked highest by each method.

The inter-relationship between the three assessment methods is then discussed with the conclusion being reached, that if the assumption about equal benefits is relaxed, then the CBD Rail Link performs significantly better than the Central Area Bus Tunnel, in particular against the key RLTS objectives.

It is therefore clear that the CBD Rail Link should be subject to a detailed business case assessment.

9.1 Multi-criteria Analysis

Table 9-1 shows the three alternatives ranked highest using the multi-criteria assessment using both uniform and non-uniform weights as, described in section 5. The CBD Rail Link with three stations is ranked highest under both approaches and the Central Area bus tunnel is ranked second. These rankings are not sensitive to the choice of weights.

Table 9-1: Highest Ranking Alternatives from Multi-Criteria Assessment

Alternatives Uniform Weight Non- Uniform Weights On Surface Bus Route Improvements 1.64 1.52 Central Area Bus Tunnel- 3 Stations 2.27 2.23 Expanded Britomart Terminus 1.64 1.67 CBD Rail Link-3 Stations 2.73 2.58

9.2 Cost Effectiveness Analysis

Table 9-2 shows the estimated costs of the two highest ranked options, as analysed in section 6. This cost effectiveness assessment compared the net present values of the capital and 30 year operational and maintenance costs of the two highest ranking alternatives, on the assumption that they are all equally effective at delivering the required additional transport capacity to the Auckland CBD. This analysis was undertaken at both the current NZ Treasury discount rate of 8% as well as at 6% and 4% as required by the NZTA Economic Evaluation Manual.

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Table 9-2: Results of 30 year Cost Effectiveness Assessment ($m, 2010 terms)

Rank Alternatives 4% Real 6% Real 8% Real

1 CBD Rail Link 3 stations $2,230 $1,820 $1,520

2 Central Bus Tunnel 3 stations $3,750 $3,120 $2,640

9.3 Qualitative Benefits The Central Area Bus Tunnel with three stations has higher benefits than the CBD Rail Link with three stations, because it provides better connections for buses from the North Shore. Rather than trying to estimate the additional benefits, APB&B has estimated that an enhanced surface North Shore bus connection from the Harbour Bridge could be added to CBD rail link alternative for approximately $220 million present value, which is less than the difference in costs between the CBD Rail Link and the Bus Tunnel. The benefit cost ratio for the CBD Rail Link including North Shore bus connection is approximately 1.5 times the ratio for the Bus Tunnel.

In accordance with the criteria used for multi-criteria analysis, benefits comprise conventional transport benefits, wider economic benefits and other, non-transport benefits. Quantitative analysis of these benefits is being undertaken for the benefit-cost assessment (of the CBD Rail Link only) for the business case report.

9.4 Discussion and Conclusions

The transport problem identified at the beginning of this paper involved the question of unlocking Auckland‘s growth potential by alleviating transport constraints into the CBD. In real terms Auckland is currently estimated to account for 36% of New Zealand‘s GDP and contains 621,000 or 32%, of the country‘s jobs. By itself, the CBD area contains 13% of the region‘s jobs and 26% of employment in Auckland City.

Future projections show that out to 2041 the region‘s population will increase from 1.3 million currently to about 2.1 million – growth of 800,000 people. More importantly, Auckland‘s population continues to grow by a further 200,000 people right out to the edge of the current projection range of 2051. This means that over the next 45 years another 1 million people will make Auckland their home.

If car ownership per capita remains stable during this period, that could mean more than half a million additional vehicles on the region‘s road networks. Any transport investment has to consider this ongoing growth profile and should not be limited to the artificial constraint imposed by a project analysis period.

If such growth rates came to fruition then the region‘s road network, already struggling in the AM peak, would not have the capacity to accommodate the additional demands placed upon it. Land use policies impact on the distribution of the population across the region, with the scenario considered here indicating that the usually resident population and employment within the CBD will increase to 102,000 and 122,000 respectively by 2041.

Even with relatively high self containment assumptions, the additonal trips coming into the CBD in the AM peak will increase by 48,000 in 2041. The complexity of handling this increase is compounded by the multi-directional nature of these trips, with the growth originating from the north, west and south/east. New capacity will clearly be needed and recent government guidelines point to investment maximising existing infrastructure as a priority.

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This paper has investigated the options for providing for future investment in transport capacity into the CBD. The long list of potential transport investment alternatives for providing additional capacity into the CBD was cut down to just two – a CBD Rail Link and a Central Area Bus Tunnel, both with three stations. While a multi-critieria analysis, using a broad range of indicators, was used to eliminate all but the two alternatives mentioned, further analysis on cost effectiveness and simplified benefit analysis was used to separate the two remaining options, with the CBD Rail Link prevailing as the best option.

No conclusion should be drawn from looking at the two different assessment methods, holding benefits as relatively equivalent, without considering the relationship between them. On the basis of the calculations in this paper, the CBD Rail Link clearly outperforms the Central Area Bus Tunnel option by a factor between 1.5 and 1.7. However, this is based on a simplified assumption that both projects are equally effective at delivering the required extra capacity into the CBD. If this assumption is relaxed, then using the multi-criteria analysis both alternatives are not equal.

Fit with the assessment criteria in section 5 and applied in section 6 indicates that the Central Area Bus Tunnel struggles to stay competitive. The initial modelling of trips by mode shown in section 2.1 gives an indication of the issues. In a bus unconstrained environment (holding car trip growth constant) then bus trips increase significantly with relatively smaller growth in rail trips (see Figure 2-3). Contrast this with the rail tunnel investment, which unlocks the potential for additional rail trips, but also enables continued growth on the bus network (see Figure 2-4).

From a strategic perspective, this implies that the CBD Rail Link provides not only the capacity necessary to meet a significant proportion of future transport demand into the CBD, but also assists with the growth across othe modes. Looking at the evaluation criteria used in this paper, the differences are sufficiently noticeable. Contrast between the two can be summarised as:

 The CBD Rail Link being more effective at improving journey times because it operates in its own corridor, whereas the Central Bus Tunnel would require access to the wider road network

 Non-transport benefits, such as urban development, are likely to be greater for the CBD Rail Link than the Central Bus Tunnel because the permanency of the rail infrastructure positively influences development. This development is likely to also be a factor further out along the rail corridor around station developments in Panmure and New Lynn.

 While both the CBD Rail Link and Central Bus Tunnel score well for patronage optimisation, the CBD Rail Link will ultimately do better because of the freeing up of existing capacity in the rail network and the segregated nature of this corridor, compared to the bus network‘s reliance on existing road infrastructure.

 Because of the reliance on the wider road network, the Central Bus Tunnel cannot score better on cost minimisation – it would require ongoing investment in the road system to maintain the benefit stream over time. This would include a programme of grade separated intersections, bus priority lanes and other measures, otherwise the bus tunnel speed and reliability would succumb to road congestion over time.

 The electric train fleet to be used on the rail networks also confer environmental benefit advantages over the bus tunnel, in spite of improvements in emissions standards and the possibility over time of alternatively powered buses being used on the network.

 In terms of the RLTS 2010 strategic priorities, the CBD Rail Link would provide better congestion management (as opposed to replacing cars with buses) and therefore limit the need for additional road building in an already heavily land constrained area. The CBD Rail Link is

CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 91 of 109 Appendix D

also better at supporting compact urban development, with overseas evidence suggesting the emergence of dense urban mixed-use development occurring around stations.

 The spread of investment across different transport types that the CBD Rail Link reduces Auckland‘s current reliance on the road network and therefore helps to mitigate risks to the transport network posed by natural (e.g. weather related) and man-made (e.g. accidents and high fuel prices) events. This would ensure continuity of access to the CBD and minimise any possible transport-related interruptions to the city‘s economic activity.

Interpreting the two different assessment methods in conjunction with each other genuinely shows the potential superiority of the CBD Rail Link. What is more, the CBD Rail Link would be investment that maximises the use of present infrastructure – not just in terms of rail, but is also complementary to other modes (and in all likelihood improves the return on investment from them as well).

A large part of the cost and performance advantage of the CBD Rail Link is due to the project releasing latent capacity currently residing in the rail network, which is unable to be realised due to the capacity constraints of the Britomart Terminus. In contrast, the bus tunnel option has to be built from scratch, and requires further investment out into the wider Auckland network to continue to deliver the benefits of the original investment (see Figure 4-15). This accounts for the higher infrastructure and operational expenditure of the bus tunnel option compared to the rail option and therefore its lower performance.

Overall, the CBD Rail Link tunnel with three stations is the best option to carry forward into the detailed business case.

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Appendix A. Auckland Region Population and Employment Growth Trends

Population growth is an important driver of transport demand. How a population moves around an urban area in large part dictates the quality of life experienced by the inhabitants and the economic progress made within the area. The economic geography literature highlights the role played by major cities in economic output and productivity growth, with a metropolitan area‘s ability to manage transport network demand, with growing population pressures, a key performance factor.

Population data from Statistics New Zealand reveals important trends regarding the role of Auckland as the major population centre within New Zealand. Figure A-0-1 shows Auckland‘s population growth relative to the rest of New Zealand.

Figure A-0-1 – Population dynamics within New Zealand

Auckland's Population Growth Relative to the Rest of New Zealand 4,500,000

4,000,000

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

Rest of NZ 2,000,000

Total Population Total Auckland

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Census Period Source: Statistics New Zealand

Over the 20-year period between the 1986 and 2006 censuses, the Auckland region‘s population has grown at a faster annual average rate (2.0% p.a.) than both the national average (1.1% p.a.) and the rest of New Zealand (0.7% p.a.). As a consequence, Auckland‘s population has grown from 874,000 to 1.3 million people, meaning Auckland now accounts for 32% of New Zealand‘s population, up from 27% twenty years ago.

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To put Auckland‘s performance into perspective, Figure A-2shows the contribution to population growth across New Zealand‘s regions.

Figure A-0-2 – Auckland’s contribution to NZ’s population growth Regional Population Change between 1986 and 2006

Southland

Otago

Canterbury

West Coast

Marlborough

Nelson

Tasman

Wellington

Manawatu-Wanganui

Taranaki

Hawke's Bay

Gisborne

Bay of Plenty

Waikato

Auckland

Northland

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000

Source: Statistics New Zealand Change in population

In the twenty year period covered between the 1986 and 2006 census periods, New Zealand‘s population increased by 765,000 people. Fully 56% of this growth occurred within the Auckland region, while the so-called ―Golden Triangle‖ of Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty accounted for just over 73% of New Zealand‘s population growth.

The internal dynamics of population growth in the Auckland region are summarised in Figure A-0-3 describing population shares across the local authority areas that comprise the region. The distribution of growth shown in the diagram provides an indication of the complexity around growth pressures within Auckland, which is further highlighted in Table A-1.

Table A-1 – Concentration of growth across areas in Auckland Local Authority Population Growth TLA 1986 2006 Change Growth Rodney 45,255 89,559 44,304 3.5% North Shore 144,807 205,608 60,801 1.8% Waitakere 123,309 186,444 63,135 2.1% Auckland City 294,165 404,658 110,493 1.6% Manukau 206,826 328,968 122,142 2.3% Papakura 33,108 45,183 12,075 1.6% Franklin 36,819 58,932 22,113 2.4%

Critical trends in population growth indicate that the fastest growing areas of the region lie on the peripheries of the northern and southern regional boundaries (albeit off low bases), while the areas classified as urban have shown lower compound growth overall, but have higher population levels, implying lower growth rates still add significant momentum to overall population growth.

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Figure A-0-3 – Population growth within the Auckland region

Local Authority Shares of the Regional Population 35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

Rodney 20.0% North Shore Waitakere Auckland City

15.0% Manukau Percent Region of Papakura Franklin

10.0%

5.0%

0.0% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Statistics New Zealand

Based upon Figure A-0-3 and the information in Table A-1 the areas potentially exhibiting the largest growth pressures for commuting remain the inner urban areas around Auckland City, but potentially signalling pressure from the south being greater in coming years.

Annual population estimates are produced by Statistics New Zealand to provide regular population updates between the five-yearly census periods. Figure A-0-4 shows the Auckland region‘s population growth relative to the rest of New Zealand (the sum of the two comprise New Zealand‘s total population. In this context, the population trends identified in the five census periods are used as the base for the population estimates, adjusted for actual births and deaths within the region and for migration. The chart indicates that Auckland has continued to dominate New Zealand‘s population growth profile, and now accounts for just over one third of the country‘s population.

Figure A-0-4 – Auckland’s share of the population continues to grow

Population Estimates for the Auckland Region 5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500 Rest of NZ Auckland Population Population (000s) 2000

1500

1000

500

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

June Years Source: Statistics New Zealand

Figure A-0-5 looks at population estimates on a sub-regional basis.

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Figure A-0-5 – Growth estimates across the region

Population Estimates Across Auckland Local Authorities 1600

1400

1200

1000 Franklin District Papakura District 800 Manukau City Auckland City

Population Population (000s) Waitakere City 600 North Shore City Rodney District

400

200

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

June Years Source: Statistics New Zealand

Population estimates provide the trend growth across the different areas of Auckland and reinforce census trends of population growth and concentration across the central and southern areas of Auckland, which provide an indication of where likely commuting pressures originate from.

Looking forward, Statistics New Zealand population projections place greater emphasis on Auckland growth, relative to the rest of New Zealand, as Figure A-0-6 describes.

Figure A-0-6 – Projections of regional and national populations (medium series) Population Projections for the Auckland Region and New Zealand 6000

5000

4000

3000 Rest of NZ

Auckland Population Population (000s)

2000

1000

0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Source: Statistics New Zealand Five-year projection

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Auckland‘s population is projected to increase to just under 2 million (from 1.3 million currently) by 2031. The region is expected to maintain its growth rate, based upon births, deaths and migration trends, over and above the rest of New Zealand to end up comprising a greater share of the country‘s population. It is projected that by 2031, 38% of New Zealand‘s population will call the Auckland region home.

Sub-regionally, the population projections show the population distributed across the Auckland region as illustrated in Figure A-0-7.

Figure A-0-7 – Population projections across Auckland

Population Projections Across Auckland Local Authorities 2500

2000

1500 Franklin Papakura Manukau Auckland City

Population Population (000s) 1000 Waitakere North Shore Rodney

500

0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Source: Statistics New Zealand Five-year Period

Looking forward, the areas with the largest projected population increases, and therefore areas which are likely to provide the biggest commuting challenges are the central and southern areas of the region (i.e. Auckland City and Manukau City).(

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Aging Population

Like other developed nations, New Zealand‘s population is ageing. However, the internal dynamics between Auckland and the rest of New Zealand reveal that the region‘s population still has a young age structure, as shown in Figure A-0-8.

Figure A-0-8 – Auckland’s population age structure

Auckland Region Population Age Structure 60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000 Population Male Female 20,000

10,000

0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years and Over

Source: Statistics New Zealand Age Band

More importantly, Auckland‘s population is young relative to New Zealand and is expected to stay that way, as illustrated in Figure A-0-9, which contrasts the projected median ages of the Auckland regional and New Zealand national populations. Contextually, this is an important result for both the region and New Zealand, as Auckland will be home to greater proportions of the country‘s working age population relative to other areas of New Zealand.

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Figure A-0-9 – Projected median age of the Auckland and New Zealand populations

Projected Median Age Comparison between Auckland Region and New Zealand 42

40

38

36 Auckland New Zealand

Median Median Age (Years) 34

32

30 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population aging is not uniform across the region, as shown in Figure A-0-10.

Figure A-0-10 – Sub-regional projected median ages

Projected Median Ages Across the Auckland Region 45

40

35

30

Rodney

25 North Shore Auckland Waitakere 20

Manukau Median Median Age (Years) Papakura

15 Franklin

10

5

0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

By 2031 it is projected that the areas within Auckland which have the youngest population profiles, and therefore the areas with potentially the largest components of working age population will lie in the central and southern areas of the region.

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Internal Migration

Statistics New Zealand census data also provides an indication of inter-regional population movements in the intervening five years between the taking of the census. Figure A-0-11 shows the net change in the Auckland region‘s population between the 2001 and 2006 census periods.

Figure A-0-11 – Net population changes for the Auckland region

Auckland's Net Gain (Loss) of Population from the 2006 Census

Total Series1, -16662

Southland Region

Otago Region

Canterbury Region

West Coast Region

Marlborough Region

Nelson Region

Tasman Region

Wellington Region

Manawatu-Wanganui Region

Taranaki Region

Hawke's Bay Region

Gisborne Region

Bay of Plenty Region

Waikato Region

Auckland Region

Northland Region

-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000

Number

A negative result in the chart above shows that Auckland lost population to a particular region, while a positive number indicates that the region in question was a net provider of population to Auckland. Overall, the Auckland region turned net provider of population to other regions of New Zealand between the 2001 and 2006 census periods, losing just fewer than 17,000 people. The largest recipients of Aucklanders moving away from the region were the Northland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions. These three regions received just over three quarters of all the people who moved out of Auckland, indicating the majority of Aucklanders have not moved very far.

Natural Increase

The natural increase in population is equal to the number of births less the number of deaths in a given year. Figure A-0-12 highlights the trend in live births in the Auckland region, relative to the rest of New Zealand.

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Figure A-0-12 – Live births in Auckland

Live Births in Auckland Relative to New Zealand 70000

60000

50000

40000

Rest of NZ Numbers 30000 Auckland region

20000

10000

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

March Years Source: Statistics New Zealand As a percentage of New Zealand, the Auckland region is the source of over 36% of all live births occurring in New Zealand. Auckland‘s relatively younger population and the sheer population size relative to the rest of New Zealand give Auckland a higher share of births relative to its current population share. Figure A-0-13 highlights the trend in the number of deaths in the Auckland region relative to the rest of New Zealand. Auckland‘s number of deaths only comprises around 26% of the total deaths in New Zealand. The relatively younger population and longer life expectancies enjoyed by Aucklanders contributes to the lower number of deaths relative to the proportion of population.

Figure A-0-13 – Deaths in the Auckland region relative to New Zealand

Deaths in the Auckland Region Relative to New Zealand 35000

30000

25000

20000

Number Rest of NZ 15000 Auckland region

10000

5000

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

March Years Source: Statistics New Zealand

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The trend in the natural population increase in the Auckland region is shown in Figure A-0-14. The higher share of births in the Auckland region, combined with the lower number of deaths relative to the proportion of population contained in the region gives Auckland a significant natural increase in the population. Relative to the rest of the country, the Auckland region produces around 46% of the natural increase in New Zealand‘s population.

Figure A-0-14 – Natural population in Auckland relative to New Zealand

Natural Population Increase in the Auckland Region 40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

Number Rest of NZ Auckland region 15000

10000

5000

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Statistics New Zealand March Years

The natural increase in the population, combined with inbound migrants from overseas locations (discussed next) are the main contributors to the population increases experienced by Auckland, given that Auckland as at the 2006 census was a net contributor of population to other regions between 2001 and 2006.

Overseas Arrivals

External migration data from Statistics New Zealand18 tracks the influx of overseas migrants into the Auckland region, which is summarised in Figure A-0-15.

18 ―Ethnic Population Projections: Issues and Trends‖, Statistics New Zealand, 2004

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Figure A-0-15 – External migration into the Auckland region relative to New Zealand

Migrants into Auckland Relative to New Zealand 120000

100000

80000

60000

Number Rest of NZ Auckland

40000

20000

0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

March Years Source: Statistics New Zealand

The Auckland region consistently attracts around 40% of the total external permanent and long-term migrants into New Zealand. Where these migrants settle within the Auckland region has important implications for the demand for housing, services (such as PT) and access to infrastructure. The settlement patterns for migrants into Auckland are shown in Figure A-0-16.

Figure A-0-16 – Where external migrants settle in Auckland

Destination of Migrants to Auckland Franklin Papakura District Rodney District District 2% 3% 2%

North Shore City Manukau City 14% 18%

Waitakere City 8%

Auckland City 53%

Source: Statistics New Zealand

In the 19 years between 1992 and 2010, the Auckland region has attracted just over 583,000 migrants from overseas. The vast majority of these migrants have settled in the central and southern urban areas of the Auckland region.

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Employment

Understanding employment patterns is important for initiating transport investments in both infrastructure and services, particularly in cities. Being able to create effective density within the main areas of employment by enabling greater access through the transport network is one of the keys to making the city successful.

The Auckland region makes up a sizeable share of total employment in New Zealand, as illustrated in Figure A-0-17.

Figure A-0-17 – Employee counts in the Auckland region

Employee Counts for Auckland Region Relative to New Zealand 2500000

2000000

1500000

Number Rest of NZ Auckland Region 1000000

500000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

March Years Source: Statistics New Zealand Based upon total employee counts, the Auckland region comprises roughly 32% of total New Zealand employee counts, with the share of employees reasonable stable over time, implying employment growth around the rest of New Zealand has kept pace with growth in Auckland. Employment distribution around the Auckland region is shown in Figure A-0-18, which emphasises the major concentrations of employment in the region exist around the North Shore, Auckland City and Manukau City.

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Figure A-0-18 – Distribution of employment across Auckland

Distribution of Employee Counts in the Auckland Region 700000

600000

500000

Franklin 400000 Papakura Manukau Number Waitakere 300000 Auckland North Shore Rodney 200000

100000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Statistics New Zealand March Years

Employment in these three main areas has increased the most between 2000 and 2009, with just over 83% of new employment being generated there. Figure A-0-19 summarises employment by broad industry.

Figure A-0-19 – Employment by industry

Employee Counts by Broad Industry Type in Auckland 700000

600000

500000

Tertiary Services 400000 Government Financial Number Transport and Communications 300000 Goods Distributing Goods Producing Primary 200000

100000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

March Years Source: Statistics New Zealand Very little of the region‘s employment is engaged in the primary sectors associated with agriculture, fishing forestry and mining. The major employment generating industries in the region consist of

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the goods producing (manufacturing and construction), goods distribution (wholesaling and retailing), finance and tertiary services.

The main employment growth has occurred between 2000 and 2009 has been generated within distribution, the finance sector and tertiary services. The tertiary services sector includes a range of diverse industries including health, education, cultural, recreational and personal services. The growth in these industries and the broadening of the region‘s industry structure to increase the share of these services indicates the maturing of the region‘s economic base.

To get a feel for how the region‘s industrial base has matured, Figure A-0-20 highlights the growth of employment in knowledge related industries (KI), as a share of total Auckland employment.

Figure A-0-20 – Knowledge Industry Employment

Knowledge Industry Employee Counts Relative to Total Employment in Auckland 700000

600000

500000

400000 Number 300000

200000

100000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

March Years

Knowledge Industries Other Industries

The knowledge related industries and the employment described above are based around Department of Labour19 measures of the knowledge sector, which relay on methods for differentiating industries as consisting of significant knowledge intensive employment relative to non-knowledge intensive employment. The industries used by the Department of Labour are based around Statistics New Zealand‘s standard industrial classifications (ANZSIC06).

Total knowledge industry employment in the Auckland region has grown at a faster pace relative to other employing industries, creating nearly 59,000 new jobs compared to 45,000 across other non knowledge intensive industries. This implies that just over one third of all employment in Auckland is related to knowledge intensive industries.Figure A-0-21 examines how knowledge industry employment is distributed across the Auckland region.

19 ―The New Zealand Knowledge Economy: a refined methodology and further findings on the structure and growth of the knowledge economy‖. Department of Labour, Wellington, May 2009.

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Figure A-0-21 – Key areas associated with Knowledge Industry employment

Distribution of Knowledge Industry Employment Across Auckland 250000

200000

150000 Franklin Papakura Manukau Auckland Employee Counts 100000 Waitakere North Shore Rodney

50000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

March Years Source: Statistics New Zealand The major knowledge industry intensive areas in Auckland are concentrated in Auckland City, North Shore City and Manukau City. Other areas in Auckland have relatively minor shares of knowledge intensive employment. The presence of large concentrations of knowledge employment in Auckland City reflects the presence of the CBD and surrounding areas that service it. Both Manukau and North Shore have seen their shares of knowledge-related employment grow between 2000 and 2009. This may be due to firms making location decisions around land costs (implied by higher rentals for CBD properties) and access to a nearby workforce (driven by morning and evening peak hour congestion into and out of the CBD).

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