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Alternatives Paper Appendix D Auckland CBD Rail Link Business Case Prepared for KiwiRail and ARTA By APB&B 19th November 2010 Revision History Revision Nº Prepared By Description Date David Adams & Simon V5 Final Draft 24 August 2010 Wood 24 September V6 Duncan Chadwick Aligned with draft Business Case 2010 Final additions to align with draft 20 October V6b Duncan Chadwick Business Case 2010 Final Issue following Client 19 November Final Duncan Chadwick Endorsement 2010 Document Acceptance Action Name Signed Date Prepared by Team 19 November Reviewed by Simon wood 2010 19 November Approved by David Adams 2010 on behalf of APB&B CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 1 of 109 Appendix D Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 1 PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER 12 1.1 OUTLINE OF THE PAPER 12 2 UNLOCKING GROWTH THROUGH TRANSPORT INVESTMENT IN THE AUCKLAND CBD14 2.1 THE SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF THE 2041 TRANSPORT TASK 14 2.2 CURRENT TRANSPORT NETWORK CAPACITY 19 2.2.1 Road 19 2.2.2 Rail 20 2.2.3 Bus 20 2.3 SUMMARY 21 3 BACKGROUND & ASSUMPTIONS 22 3.1 AUCKLAND POPULATION GROWTH IN A NEW ZEALAND CONTEXT 22 3.2 AUCKLAND EMPLOYMENT IN A NATIONAL CONTEXT 24 3.3 SCOPE AND ROLE OF THE CBD 25 3.3.1 Scope of the CBD 26 3.3.2 Role of the CBD 26 3.4 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN A POLICY CONTEXT 29 3.5 THE IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE IN AUCKLAND AND THE CBD 31 4 COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF TRANSPORT MEASURES 33 4.1 TRAVEL DEMAND MEASURES 34 4.1.1 Flexible Working Hours 35 4.1.2 Telecommuting 36 4.1.3 Satellite Offices/Places of Learning 36 4.1.4 Walking 37 4.1.5 Cycling 37 4.1.6 Role of Travel Demand Measures 39 4.2 INCREASED RELIANCE ON PRIVATE CAR USAGE AND ROAD NETWORK EXPANSION 39 4.2.1 Increased Private Car Usage (Current Capacity) 39 4.2.2 Increased Road Capacity for Cars 40 4.2.3 Outlook for roads and private vehicles as a transport solution 41 PUBLIC TRANSPORT ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED 41 4.3 INCREASED FERRY USAGE 41 4.4 INCREASED BUS USAGE 42 4.4.1 Background – Previous Studies CBD 43 4.4.2 2041 Bus Demand Without CBD Rail Link 43 4.4.3 Bus Capacity to the CBD 45 4.5 INCREASED BUS USAGE – ON SURFACE CAPACITY IMPROVEMENTS 47 4.5.1 Description 47 4.5.2 Constraints to BRT 47 4.5.3 Rerouting and Through Routing 48 4.5.4 Infrastructure Requirements 49 4.5.5 Operational Evaluation 50 4.5.6 Strategic Evaluation 50 4.6 INCREASED BUS USAGE – CBD BUS LOOP 50 CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 2 of 109 Appendix D 4.6.1 Option Description 50 4.6.2 Examples and Learnings 50 4.6.3 Constraints 51 4.6.4 Two Options 52 4.6.5 Rerouting and Through Routing 52 4.6.6 Operating Assumptions 53 4.6.7 Infrastructure Requirements 54 4.6.8 Operational Evaluation 54 4.6.9 Strategic Evaluation 54 4.7 INCREASED BUS USAGE – BUS TUNNELS 54 4.7.1 Description 54 4.7.2 Examples and Learnings 55 4.7.3 Operating Assumptions 58 4.7.4 Central Area Bus Tunnel Specification 59 4.7.5 Operational Evaluation 61 4.7.6 Strategic Evaluation 63 4.8 LIGHT RAIL 63 4.9 BRITOMART EXPANSION 64 4.9.1 Capacity of Existing Auckland Rail Network 64 4.9.2 Description 66 4.9.3 Infrastructure Requirements 67 4.9.4 Operational Evaluation 68 4.9.5 Strategic Evaluation 68 4.10 CBD RAIL LINK 69 4.10.1 Description 69 4.10.2 Route Selection 71 4.10.3 Impacts of CBD Rail Link 72 4.10.4 Operational Evaluation 73 4.10.5 .Infrastructure Requirements 74 5 ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 75 5.1 IDENTIFICATION OF ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 75 5.2 DESCRIPTION OF ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 75 5.2.1 Strategic Fit 75 5.2.2 Patronage 76 5.2.3 Cost 76 5.2.4 Benefit 76 5.3 RANKING SCALE 77 5.4 WEIGHTINGS 77 6 EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 79 6.1 THE VIABLE SET OF ALTERNATIVES 79 6.2 SUMMARY OF RANKING 80 6.2.1 Support the growth and development of the CBD 80 6.2.2 Optimise patronage 81 6.2.3 Minimise costs 81 6.2.4 Environmental sustainability 82 6.2.5 Strategic fit 82 7 COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS 85 7.1 SUMMARY 85 CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 3 of 109 Appendix D 7.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND PARAMETERS 86 7.3 COST ASSESSMENT 86 8 DESCRIPTION OF BENEFITS 87 8.1 CONVENTIONAL TRANSPORT BENEFITS 87 8.2 WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS 87 8.3 NON-TRANSPORT BENEFITS 88 9 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 89 9.1 MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS 89 9.2 COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS 89 9.3 QUALITATIVE BENEFITS 90 9.4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 90 APPENDIX A. AUCKLAND REGION POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS 93 Aging Population 98 Internal Migration 100 Natural Increase 100 Overseas Arrivals 102 Employment 104 CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 4 of 109 Appendix D Executive Summary This Alternatives paper forms part of the Business Case documentation for the Auckland CBD Rail Link project, and responds to stakeholder feedback following the Business Case Stakeholder workshop held in May 2010. It also satisfies the principles required for the Stage 1 deliverable for the Capital Asset Management Framework (CAM). Transport Challenges of Auckland Population Growth The transport problem addressed in this paper considers how to unlock Auckland‘s growth potential by alleviating transport constraints into and within the CBD. In real terms Auckland is currently estimated to account for 36% of New Zealand‘s Gross Domestic Product and contains 32%, of the country‘s jobs (by employment count). By itself, the CBD area contains 13% of the region‘s jobs and 26% of employment in Auckland City. Current transport networks feeding the CBD are either already congested (roads) or have capacity restrictions which will prevent them offering longer term solutions in their current form (bus and rail). Limits on the current network can be identified by: Congestion on the road network from greater traffic volumes has increased from 0.59 minutes per kilometre in 2002 to 0.88 minutes per kilometre by 2009. Increasing congestion suggests that capacity has already been reached on the road network. On the rail network, the Britomart terminus is the constraint, limiting the number of train paths into and out of the CBD. ARTA‘s post DART and electrification peak period electric train timetable consists of 20 tph in and out of Britomart during Peak periods, comprised of 6 tph on each of the Southern, Western and Eastern routes, together with 2 tph from Onehunga. Thus by 2013, almost all of the useable train paths into and out of Britomart will be in use, providing virtually no room to add additional services in future. The performance of the bus network is largely tied to ongoing traffic congestion on the road network and the constraints imposed by the narrow streets with the CBD. Using a maximum desired lane capacity of 100 buses per hour for CBD streets, then the majority of key inner city routes reach capacity between now (2010) and 2020. This is based upon Option C PTIS routing and single lanes operating across most of the CBD. The above implies that the capacity to meet future transport demands into the CBD will be very limited beyond 2020. Maximising the efficiency of existing infrastructure also maximises investment return, but additional capacity needs to added to maintain the effectiveness of infrastructure when current capacity is reached. Ongoing population growth will place more demands on transport infrastructure. Future projections show that out to 2041 the region‘s population will increase from 1.3 million currently to about 2.1 million, with a further 200,000 increase projected out to 2051. This means that over the next 45 years another 1 million people will make Auckland their home. Ministry of Transport statistics show that trends for private vehicle ownership have been relatively stable in Auckland and average about 640 private vehicles per 1,000 people. If per capita private car ownership remains stable over the next 45 years, then the level of population growth could result in more than half a million additional vehicles on the region‘s road networks, even with more of the population living within the inner city environments. What is more, this only covers private vehicles and has not counted light fleet vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles, which will also grow in number as the regional economy, and therefore the freight task, expands. The region‘s road network, even with the current and planned road building, would not be CBD Rail Link Business Case Page 5 of 109 Appendix D able to accommodate the additional demands placed upon it without significant further additional capacity being provided. Population distribution also creates transport challenges. The distribution of population across the region is impacted by the regional and territorial local authority land use policies. Land use projections prepared as part of the 2010 Regional Land Transport Strategy indicate that the usually resident population and employment within the CBD will increase to 102,000 and 122,000 respectively by 2041. Even with relatively high CBD population forecasts, the additonal trips into the CBD in the AM peak will increase by 48,000 by 2041. The complexity of handling this increase is compounded by the multi- directional nature of these trips, with the growth originating from the north, west and south/east.

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