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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized A A LY SI S AND SUM M M A Y TABLES 7 Public Disclosure Authorized GlobalDevelopment 1997 GlobalDevelopment Finance0 1997 VOLUME 1 ANALYSIS AND SUMMARY TAB LES The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright ©D1997 by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W, Washington, D.C. 20433, USA All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing March 1997 GlobalDevelopment Finance was formerly published under the title WorldDebt Tables. This publication has been compiled by the staff of the Financial Data (FIN) Team, part of the Development Data Group and the International Finance Divisionof the World Bank'sInternational EconomicsDepartment. The World Bank doesnot accept respon- sibility for the accuracyor completenessof this publication. Any judgments expressedare those of World Bank staff or consultants and do not necessarilyreflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors or the governmentsthey represent. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requestsfor permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to the Office of the Publisher at the address in the copyright notice above.The World Bank encouragesdissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when reproduction is for noncommercial purposes,without askinga fee. Permissionto photocopy portions for classroomuse is granted through the Copyright Clearance Center, Suite 910,222 RosewoodDr., Danvers,MA 01923, USA. ISBN 0-8213-3788-2 (vol. 1) ISBN 0-8213-3789-0 (two-volumeset) ISSN 1020-5454 7 Contents Preface ix Acronymsand abbreviations x Part1. External finance for developing countries Overview 3 Improving accessto private flows-and managing them well 4 Private capital flows are up strongly again 5 Official flowscontinue to shrink 7 A transformation of debt restructuring, and the HIPC Debt Initiative 8 Notes 9 1. Advancesin global markets 11 Modest maturing of foreign investors and domestic borrowers 12 Modest maturing of international and domestic markets 14 Stronger officialmeasures for dealing with crises 17 Notes 18 2. Projectfinance for infrastructure 19 Infrastructure finance growingrapidly in the 1990s 19 Privatesector outpacing the public 21 Guarantees reduce uncertainty, but no substitute for good policies 23 Note 25 3. Foreigndirect investmentand global integration 27 Changing characteristicsof foreign direct investment flows 27 Economic benefits of foreign direct investment 31 Links between foreign direct investment and export orientation 31 The opening of investment regimesduring the 1990s 33 Notes 34 4. The changingface of aid 35 Ailing officialdevelopment assistance 35 Shifting composition of aid 36 Refocusingaid 38 Notes 39 v vI 5. Removingthe debt overhangof the heavily indebtedpoor countries 41 What is the debt problem? 41 What is the HIPC Debt Initiative? 44 Notes 46 PartII. Appendixes 1. Debt burden indicators and country classifications 49 2. External debt trends in 1995 63 3. Official external debt restructuring 67 4. Commercial debt restructuring 79 5. Portfolio investment in developing countries 99 6. Progress on privatization 115 7. Regional trends in debt and flows 155 PartIll. Summary tables Methodology 173 Sources and definitions 177 Country groups 185 Summary tables 189 All developingcountries 190 East Asia and the Pacific 192 Europe and Central Asia 194 Latin America and the Caribbean 196 Middle East and North Africa 198 South Asia 200 Sub-SaharanAfrica 202 Severelyindebted low-incomecountries 204 Severelyindebted middle-incomecountries 206 Moderatelyindebted low-income countries 208 Moderatelyindebted middle-income countries 210 Other developingcountries 212 Low-incomecountries 214 Middle-income countries 216 SpecialProgram of Assistance 218 Tables 1 Aggregatenet long-term resource flowsto developingcountries, 1990-96 3 2 Aggregatenet private capital flowsto developing countries, 1990-96 5 3 Net private capital flowsto developingcountries by country group, 1990-96 7 4 Official net flowsof development finance, 1990-96 8 1.1 Aggregatenet long-term resource flowsto developingcountries by public and private recipients, 1990-96 13 1.2 Changes in country creditworthiness,September 1994-December 1996 14 1.3 Traded value in selecteddeveloping country stock markets, 1986-96 16 Vlt 2.1 Infrastructurefinancing raised by developingcountries by type of borrower and instrument, 1986-95 21 2.2 Infrastructure financing raised by developingcountries by region and type of instrument, 1986-95 22 3.1 Net foreign direct investment in developingcountries, 1990-96 29 3.2 Net foreign direct investment as a share of GNP by region and income group, 1990-96 29 5.1 Growth and export performance of heavilyindebted poor countries and developingcountries, 1980-95 42 5.2 Preliminaryassessments of debt sustainabilityfor heavilyindebted poor countries 43 Figures 1 Financing flowingthrough portfolio investments to developingcountries surged ahead in 1996 6 2 Officialconcessional finance remains concentrated in Sub-SaharanAfrica. though Europe and Central Asia'sshare has grown enormously 8 1.1 Stripped spreads on Brady bonds reflect investor perceptionsof country creditworthiness 12 1.2 International equity issues by developingcountries are recovering 15 1.3 Four of the twelve top-traded depositoryreceipts in 1995 came from developingcountries 15 1.4 Emerging stock markets account for a significantshare of global capitalizations 16 2.1 EastAsia leads in raising externalfunds for infrastructure 22 2.2 The size and terms of infrastructure borrowing vary acrossdeveloping regions 23 2.3 Power,telecommunications, and transport attract the most financing in developing countries 23 2.4 Privatesector borrowing for infrastructure showed rapid growth in Asia and Latin America in 1986-95 23 2.5 Host country government guarantees covered a fifth of all infrastructure loans to the private sector in developingcountries in 1986-95 24 2.6 The Uch power project in Pakistan shows the role of World Bank Group guarantees 25 3.1 FDI flowsto developingcountries account for a growing share of global flows 28 3.2 U.S. and Japanese multinationals continue to lead in FDI 30 3.3 Some developingcountries have begun generatinglarger FDI flows 30 3.4 FDI is positivelycorrelated with growth 31 4.1 Nominal ODA has held steady in recent years; real ODA has been slipping 36 4.2 In 1995 net ODA from industrial countries dropped to its lowestlevel in half a century 36 4.3 Officialaid to transition economies accounts for the only increasein recent aid flows 37 4.4 Low-incomecountries are receivinga smaller share of concessionalaid flows 38 4.5 A larger share of multilateral than bilateral concessionalaid flows to low-income countries 38 5.1 Heavily indebted poor countries have receivedsizable net flowsand net transfers from creditors 42 5.2 Grants and foreign direct investment in heavilyindebted poor countries are growing 42 5.3 How does the HIPC Debt Initiativework? 45 Boxes 1.1 The IMF's specialdata dissemination standard 18 2.1 Measuring the flow of infrastructure finance 20 3.1 The evidenceon technologyspillovers 32 4.1 Linking IDA lending to country performance 39 5.1 Determining a country's debt sustainability 43 Preface GlobalDevelopment Finance was formerly pub- For the convenienceof readers,charts on pages lished as WorldDebtTables. The new name reflects xi to xiii summarize graphically the relation the report's expanded scope and greater coverage between the debt stock and its components; the of private financial flows. computation of net flows, aggregate net resource GlobalDevelopment Finance consists of two flows,and aggregatenet transfers;and the relation volumes. Volume 1 contains analysis and com- between net resourceflows and the balance of pay- mentary on recent developments in international ments. Exact definitions of these and other terms finance for developing countries, together with used in GlobalDevelopment Finance are found in summarystatistical tablesfor selectedregional and the Sourcesand Definitions section. analytical groups comprising 150 developing The economicaggregates presented in the tables countries. are prepared for the convenience of users; their Volume 2 contains statistical tables on the inclusion is not an endorsementof their value for externaldebt of the 136 countries that report pub- economic analysis. Although debt indicators can lic and publicly guaranteed debt under the Debtor give useful information about developments in Reporting System (DRS). New to Volume 2 are debt-servicing capacity, conclusions drawn from summary debt statistics and resource flow tables them will not be valid unless accompaniedby care- for selected variables. The Republic of Korea is ful economic evaluation. The macroeconomic now classifiedas a high-income country.Reported informationprovided is from standard sources,but for the first time are the IBRD and IMF obliga- many series, especiallyfor African countries, are tions and short-term debt of Bosnia and incomplete;thus it may be convenientor necessary Herzegovina. to substitute other data series for those used here. This.rqprt. was ptpd bby'a led :y nd johanne mpris Ad t :GholaAzarba ys Basi%Swan,G, h, LeonardoHnde gj:r a,,' ,,,,,, , " C,XininrMiche&sh, A=o io6 ara Ma 1ikhI&,RobettPowell,ki di' Seg Shatalov,t_ wilia Sa4 Mar,,,c Stvens Mauel uTic ,' Ca l Ther wa ' ' g asist- ed by Sheid SKtn-Watotd, E_.,hanaMekho*4, Mar,:r'ta Oi*., n,Rse M: