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JIHAD in EUROPE - a Survey of the Motivations for Sunni Islamist Terrorism in Post-Millennium Europe

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JIHAD in EUROPE - a Survey of the Motivations for Sunni Islamist Terrorism in Post-Millennium Europe FFI RAPPORT JIHAD IN EUROPE - A survey of the motivations for Sunni Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe NESSER Petter FFI/RAPPORT-2004/01146 JIHAD IN EUROPE - A survey of the motivations for Sunni Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe NESSER Petter FFI/RAPPORT-2004/01146 FORSVARETS FORSKNINGSINSTITUTT Norwegian Defence Research Establishment P O Box 25, NO-2027 Kjeller, Norway 3 FORSVARETS FORSKNINGSINSTITUTT (FFI) UNCLASSIFIED Norwegian Defence Research Establishment _______________________________ P O BOX 25 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE N0-2027 KJELLER, NORWAY (when data entered) REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 1) PUBL/REPORT NUMBER 2) SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 3) NUMBER OF FFI/RAPPORT-2004/01146 UNCLASSIFIED PAGES 1a) PROJECT REFERENCE 2a) DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 101 FFI-I/885/911 - 4) TITLE JIHAD IN EUROPE - A survey of the motivations for Sunni Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe 5) NAMES OF AUTHOR(S) IN FULL (surname first) NESSER Petter 6) DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT Approved for public release. Distribution unlimited. (Offentlig tilgjengelig) 7) INDEXING TERMS IN NORWEGIAN: IN ENGLISH: a) Terrorism a) Terrorisme b) Islamism b) Islamisme c) Conspiracy c) Konspirasjon d) Threats d) Trusler e) Europe e) Europa THESAURUS REFERENCE: 8) ABSTRACT This report surveys the motivations for Sunni Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe. It provides in-depth case studies of four terrorist plots in Europe after 2000, attributed to Sunni Islamist militants. The analysis is based mainly on the press coverage of the investigations and trials of the terrorist cells. The aim of the analysis is to determine whether these acts of terrorism should be understood primarily within the framework of al- Qaida’s global jihad, or largely as a spill-over effect local Islamist insurgencies or “jihads” in the Middle East and North Africa, or as an emerging “European jihadism” motivated by grievances generated in the European Muslim diaspora. The report provides an overview and some general observations about the recent patterns of Islamist terrorism inside Europe. The appendix of the report contains a list of thwarted terrorist plots against targets in Europe attributed to Islamist militants. It also contains profiles of radical Islamist movements, which are believed to maintain structures inside the region. 9) DATE AUTHORIZED BY POSITION This page only 2004-04-13 Jan Erik Torp Director UNCLASSIFIED ISBN 82-464-0819-4 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (when data entered) 5 PREFACE This report is based on my thesis submitted for the cand. polit. Degree at the Department of Political Science, University of Oslo in January 2004. Research was conducted within the framework of the terrorism research project at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, TERRA. + Islamist terrorism has received a great deal of attention in the media since September 11, 2001. The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003 created general fear of an increase in Islamist terrorist activity on the global scene in general and in Europe in particular. Until March 11, 2004, Islamist radicals in Europe had launched only minor terrorist attacks since the millennium. The data gathered for this study shows that a considerable number of mass casualty attacks against targets in Europe were prevented. The terrorist events summarized in the appendix of this study suggest that the threat of Islamist violence and terrorism against international and European targets in Europe since September 11, 2001 was very real, and is most probably increasing. I did not want merely to describe and quantify this development; I have also tried to move beyond this, and analyze and problematize the motivations of the Islamist militants involved in attempted attacks in Europe. On March 11, 2004 a horrific terrorist attack struck Spain resulting in a bloodbath. Terrorists bombed four commuter trains in Madrid killing 191 people and injuring approximately 1600 more. At the time of writing, the investigation strongly suggests that Moroccan radical Islamists affiliated with al-Qaida were behind the Madrid blasts. This report was originally meant to survey and problematize the motivations for Europe- based Islamist radicals’ attempts to attack targets in Europe, and discuss different explanations for why they have prepared attacks in the region. In the aftermath of the atrocities in Madrid, the report might also provide a useful background for understanding what happened in the Spanish capital on March 11, 2004. It offers general observations of the recent patterns of Islamist terrorism in Europe, in addition to in depth analyses of four recent terrorist conspiracies attributed to al-Qaida affiliated Islamists. The appendix of the study provides a chronological and fairly comprehensive overview of foiled terrorist plots attributed to Europe-based Islamist radicals, which have been covered in press articles after 2000. In addition the appendix gives an overview of the radical Islamist groups with a known presence in Europe. The report was near completion when the terrorist attacks in Madrid ocurred. The attack is thus only + This study was completed with excellent guidance and support from colleagues at the FFI, Brynjar Lia, Thomas Hegghammer, Åshild Kjøk, Truls Halleberg Tønnessen, Laila Bokhari, Synnøve Marie Kvam and Tore Nyhamar. I would also like to thank Tore Bjørgo, Jane, Thomas, Ingrid and Lars. 6 commented on in an epilogue, while references to the Madrid-investigation are included in the text where relevant. 7 CONTENTS Page 1 INTRODUCTION 9 2 THE RESEARCH QUESTION AND METHOD OF ANALYSIS 13 3 DATA, SOURCES AND RELIABILITY 16 4 CONTEXTUALIZING AND CONCEPTUALISING AN EMERGING JIHAD IN EUROPE 18 4.1 The rise of transnational radical Islamism in Europe 21 4.2 The ideological impetus for transnational radical Islamism 21 4.3 Local pressures and external sanctuary 23 4.4 Globalization and transnational radical Islamism 24 4.5 Political events and the importance of Afghanistan 26 4.6 Four in depth case studies of Islamist terrorist conspiracies in post- millennium Europe 27 5 “THE STRASBOURG PLOT”, GSPC’S CONSPIRACY TO ATTACK THE NOTRE DAME CATHEDRAL IN STRASBOURG. 28 5.1 The evidence and “links” 29 5.2 The target selection 31 5.3 The backgrounds of the militants 32 5.4 The militants’ justifications for attacking 36 5.5 The context in which the conspiracy developed 38 5.6 Conclusion 41 6 AL-TAKFIR WA’L-HIJRA’S CONSPIRACY TO ATTACK U.S. TARGETS IN EUROPE 42 6.1 The evidence and “links” 42 6.2 The target selection 44 6.3 The backgrounds of the militants 45 6.4 The militant’s justifications for attacking 48 6.5 The context in which the conspiracy developed 49 6.6 Conclusion 51 7 AL-TAWHID’S CONSPIRACY TO ATTACK JEWISH TARGETS IN GERMANY 51 7.1 The evidence and “links” 52 7.2 The target selection 54 8 7.3 The backgrounds of the militants 55 7.4 The militants’ justifications for attacking 57 7.5 The context in which the conspiracy developed 58 7.6 Conclusion 60 8 “THE CHECHEN NETWORK’S” CONSPIRACY TO ATTACK THE RUSSIAN EMBASSY IN PARIS 61 8.1 The evidence and “links” 61 8.2 The target selection 62 8.3 The backgrounds of the militants 63 8.4 The militants’ justifications for attacking 65 8.5 The context in which the conspiracy developed 66 8.6 Conclusion 68 9 FINAL CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY 68 10 EPILOGUE; CARNAGE IN MADRID 71 11 APPENDIX 75 11.1 Note on the transliteration of Arab names and expressions 75 11.2 Glossary 75 11.3 An overview of Sunni-Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe 78 11.3.1 Terrorist conspiracies 79 11.3.2 Terrorist threats 83 11.3.3 Terrorist attacks 84 11.3.4 Terrorist “export” from within Europe 84 11.3.5 Poorly documented terrorist events 85 11.4 Islamist radicals in Europe 89 11.4.1 Al-Qaida 90 11.4.2 Egyptian Islamic Jihad 91 11.4.3 Al-Takfir wa’l-Hijra 92 11.4.4 GIA and GSPC 93 11.4.5 Al-Tawhid 94 11.4.6 Ansar al-Islam 94 11.4.7 “Chechen network” 95 11.4.8 “Non-aligned Mujahidin” 96 11.4.9 Morrocan Islamic Combatant Group 97 12 SOURCES 97 9 JIHAD IN EUROPE - A survey of the motivations for Sunni Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe 1 INTRODUCTION “The plan was that I would break through the gates at the Kleine Brogel army base in a Mercedes delivery van carrying a 100-kilogram bomb and crash into the canteen. It would happen between 12:00 and 13:00. Between 50 and 70 American soldiers would be eating there at that time. I would place a photo of a Palestinian child killed by the Jews on the van's dashboard to remind myself of why I was doing it.” These are the words of a Tunisian Islamist militant and a former soccer player, Nizar Trabelsi, describing how he intended to launch a suicide attack against a U.S. airbase in Belgium, probably in the spring of 2002. On September 29, 2003, Trabelsi was sentenced to ten years in prison for his terrorist plans by a Belgian court.1 Trabelsi was a member of an al-Takfir wa’l- Hijra network behind a wider conspiracy to strike U.S. targets in Europe, probably in France or Belgium.2 United Arab Emirates security officers arrested the alleged leader of this terrorist network, Djamel Beghal, at Dubai airport on July 28, 2001, after receiving a tip-off from British intelligence sources. He was on his way back to France after a stay at a terrorist training facility in Afghanistan. The arrest was considered a major breakthrough in the investigation of Sunni-Islamist terrorist networks in Europe.3 Subsequent anti-terrorist operations by European police and intelligence services, sometimes supported by U.S.
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