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Do Internet Searches for Islamist Propaganda Precede Or Follow Islamist Terrorist Attacks?

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Do Internet Searches for Islamist Propaganda Precede Or Follow Islamist Terrorist Attacks? 233 Carl E. Enomoto, Kiana Douglas ISSN 2071-789X RECENT ISSUES IN SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH Enomoto, C. E., & Douglas, K. (2019). Do Internet searches for Islamist propaganda precede or follow Islamist terrorist attacks?. Economics and Sociology, 12(1), 233-247. doi:10.14254/2071-789X.2019/12-1/13 DO INTERNET SEARCHES FOR ISLAMIST PROPAGANDA PRECEDE OR FOLLOW ISLAMIST TERRORIST ATTACKS? Carl E. Enomoto, ABSTRACT. Using a Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model, this New Mexico State University, Las paper analyzes the relationship between Islamist terrorist Cruces, NM, U.S.A, attacks and Internet searches for the phrases such as “join E-mail: [email protected] Jihad” or “join ISIS.” It was found that Internet searches for “join Jihad” and “taghut” (Arabic word meaning “to rebel”) Kiana Douglas, preceded the Islamist terrorist attacks by three weeks over the New Mexico State University, Las period January 2014 to December 2016. Internet searches for Cruces, NM, U.S.A, “kufar” (the derogatory Arabic word for non-Muslims) E-mail: [email protected] preceded the attacks that resulted in deaths from the Islamist terrorist groups. Casualties, including those injured and killed by the Islamist groups, were also found to precede Internet searches for “join Jihad” and “ISIS websites.” Countermeasures Received: October, 2018 to the usage of social media for terrorist activity are also 1st Revision: December, 2018 discussed. As an example, if Internet searches for specific terms Accepted: February, 2019 can be identified that precede a terrorist attack, authorities can be on alert to possibly stop an impending attack. Chat rooms DOI: 10.14254/2071- and online discussion groups can also be used to disseminate 789X.2019/12-1/13 information to argue against terrorist propaganda that is being released. JEL Classification: F52, F51, Keywords: Islamist terrorist attack, propaganda, Internet search, C01 causality, VAR model. Introduction Islamist terrorist attacks are now becoming frequent, worldwide events. According to CNN (2018), “Since declaring its caliphate in June 2014, the self-proclaimed Islamic State has conducted or inspired more than 140 terrorist attacks in 29 countries other than Iraq and Syria, where its carnage has taken a much deadlier toll. Those attacks have killed at least 2,043 people and injured thousands more” (p.1). Some have attributed these attacks to social media and the radicalization that follows. The examples include the shooting at the Fort Lauderdale Airport in Florida on January 6, 2017. The shooter reportedly spoke with other “…jihadis in chatrooms and websites inspired by the Islamic State, the terrorist group also known as ISIS or ISIL” (Sheth, 2017). After the Orlando nightclub shooting on June 12, 2016, President Obama stated that there was no clear link between the shooter and ISIS, but the shooter may have been influenced by what he saw online (BBC News, 2016). On London’s Westminster Bridge, an attacker drove into pedestrians and stabbed a policeman on March 22, 2017. Authorities were Economics & Sociology, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2019 234 Carl E. Enomoto, Kiana Douglas ISSN 2071-789X RECENT ISSUES IN SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH considering the possibility that his actions were due to what he saw online (Holden and Hosenball, 2017). It may be, however, that it is not the searching for jihadist websites that leads to terrorist attacks, but it is the terrorist attacks that are leading to the Internet searches for jihadist websites. A portion of terrorist communication is not found on the regular world-wide-web where users can find it using search engines like Google, but rather it is found on the Dark Web (Weimann, 2016). According to Weimann, the Dark Web is only accessible using special browsers or special software. In this case, terrorist attacks are drawing in the attention of those individuals who have sympathy for the beliefs of the attackers (or are just curious) and are causing those individuals to search the Internet for Islamist propaganda. No radicalization or attacks may be taking place because of the searches for terrorist propaganda. The purpose of this paper is to determine the direction of causality between the Internet searches for Islamist phrases such as “Join Jihad” or “Isis Websites,” and the number of actual Islamist terrorist attacks worldwide. If the direction of causality is from the Internet searches for terrorist propaganda to terrorist attacks, that does provide authorities with useful information. However, there could be many external factors at play. For example, economic factors may be giving rise to the Internet searches for terrorist propaganda in the first place. Military conflicts in the states may have a correlation with terrorist attacks, independent of the Internet searches for propaganda. Global meetings, official speeches and resolutions also affect terrorist attacks, independent of or in conjunction with the Internet searches for terrorist propaganda. The purpose of this paper is not to consider all the factors affecting terrorist attacks worldwide, but to focus on one aspect of terrorism specifically -- the timing between Internet searches for terrorist propaganda and terrorist attacks. Conway (2017) stated, It is impossible to adequately answer the question of why the Internet is playing a greater role in contemporary violent extremism and terrorism absent prior knowledge of what role, if any, the Internet is playing in the latter. Unfortunately, basic descriptive research is largely missing from this field, along with more complex theory-informed approaches seeking to show causal connections. This is pretty astounding given the treasure trove of data now available online. Aaron Zelin observed as recently as 2013 that: More than 11 years after the attacks of 9/11 and nearly a decade since the rise of popular online jihadi Internet forums, there is strikingly little empirical research on the manner in which jihadi activists use the Web to propagate their cause. Whereas researchers and policy analysts have systematically collected and analyzed the primary source material produced by al-Qaeda and its allies, very little work has been done on the conduits through which that information is distributed—and even to what extent, anyone is accessing that propaganda other than counterterrorism analysts (pp. 78-79). The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap in the literature. The outline of this paper is as follows. In the next section, a brief overview of the literature on Islamist terrorist groups and social media will be given. Section 2 discusses the data collected for this study followed by the model used to estimate the relationships between internet searches for Islamist propaganda and Islamist terrorist attacks throughout the world. The final section contains conclusions and a discussion of the findings. Economics & Sociology, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2019 235 Carl E. Enomoto, Kiana Douglas ISSN 2071-789X RECENT ISSUES IN SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH 1. Literature review 1.1. Islamist Groups According to the Constitutional Rights Foundation (2018), Islamist groups have different goals but many common beliefs. Although their goals may differ, Islamist groups generally want to set up states based on Islamic fundamentalism, or literal interpretation of the Koran, the holy scripture of Islam, and the Hadith, a collection of sayings of the Prophet Muhammad. They believe that government based on Sharia, or Islamic law, is superior to any government based on secular laws, democracy in which multiple political views are represented, or any religion other than fundamentalist Islam. Many Islamist terrorists, often called jihadist terrorists, view themselves as following Muhammad’s example. Muhammad in A.D. 622 had to flee from Mecca with a small band of followers. Yet in 630, he returned with an army of followers to conquer Mecca and then spread Islam throughout the Arabian Peninsula. Terrorist groups often see themselves as small bands that will similarly lead Islam to victory. The overwhelming majority of Muslims deplore terrorist attacks and view them as violating the Koran. Most fundamentalist Muslims also believe terrorism violates Islamic law. Nonetheless, the Islamic State and other jihadist groups draw their supporters from the ranks of Islamic fundamentalists (p. 1). There are several Jihadist groups (Islamist terrorist groups) throughout the world. Gardner (2014) lists the following. 1) Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, 2) Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), 3) Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, 4) Boko Haram, 5) Al-Shabab, 6) Taliban, 7) Ansal al-Sharia in Libya, 8) Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia, 9) Jemaah Islamiah, 10) Abu Sayyaf, and 11) Ansar Bayt Al-Maqdis. Gardner stated that these groups have continued to flourish in many countries due to corrupt governments that abuse their power and people. While many papers in the literature have discussed the beliefs and activities of Islamist terrorist groups, none of them that the authors are aware of, have statistically measured the direction of causality between internet searches for Islamist propaganda and Islamist terrorist attacks. If internet searches for specific terms are preceding terrorist attacks, countermeasures can be developed. These countermeasures may involve closely monitoring internet activity for specific searches, identifying individuals and organizations in the communication network, and ascertaining plans of these entities. If, on the other hand, Islamist terrorist attacks are leading to internet searches for Islamist propaganda but not vice versa, then internet searches for Islamist propaganda may have been done by curiosity seekers or others who may not intend to commit a terrorist attack. 1.2. Social Media and Islamist Terrorism Twitter has been used by Islamist extremists to spread their propaganda and recruit future members to their cause. According to Ullah (2017, p.10), “…as of August 2017, the Sunni Islamist militia Jabhat al-Nusra had over 300,000 followers on affiliated sites, and @ikhwanweb, the Muslim Brotherhood’s English-language account, had 145,000.” Furthermore, the extremists are constantly changing their twitter accounts to avoid being blocked by the regulators of Twitter.
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