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An Analysis of Navajo Nation Snow Courses and Snowpack Data in the Chuska Mountains Lani Tsinnajinnie

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An Analysis of Navajo Nation Snow Courses and Snowpack Data in the Chuska Mountains Lani Tsinnajinnie University of New Mexico UNM Digital Repository Water Resources Professional Project Reports Water Resources 4-22-2011 An analysis of Navajo Nation snow courses and snowpack data in the Chuska Mountains Lani Tsinnajinnie Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/wr_sp Recommended Citation Tsinnajinnie, Lani. "An analysis of Navajo Nation snow courses and snowpack data in the Chuska Mountains." (2011). https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/wr_sp/49 This Technical Report is brought to you for free and open access by the Water Resources at UNM Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Water Resources Professional Project Reports by an authorized administrator of UNM Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. An Analysis of Navajo Nation Snow Courses and Snowpack Data in the Chuska Mountains A Professional Project Report Submitted by Lani Tsinnajinnie In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Water Resources Hydroscience Concentration Water Resources Program The University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico March 2011 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was partly supported by the Community Forestry and Environmental Research Partnership Southwest Native American Communities Fellowship. Additional support was also provided by an award from the New Mexico Chapter of the American Water Resources Association. Data and assistance were provided by the Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources including Jason John, Kimberle Davis, Jerome Bekis, Irving Brady, and John Leeper. Special thanks to my advisor, David Gutzler for his guidance. Also thank you to my other committee members, Jason John and Bruce Thomson for their guidance and assistance. 3 Lani Tsinnajinnie LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Navajo Nation Water Management Branch Active Snow Courses .....................17 Table 2 Regional SNOTEL sites...........................................................................................20 Table 3 March SWE correlation matrix ................................................................................29 Table 4 Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors................................................................................48 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources Snow Survey Sites ................15 Figure 2 Location Map of Chuska Mountains and Regional SNOTEL sites.....................16 Figure 3 Photo of snow survey sampling equipment used by NNDWR ...........................17 Figure 4 Photo of Missionary Springs snow course, 3/29/2010 ........................................18 Figure 5 Seasonal cycles of snow water equivalent at snow courses in the Chuska Mountains........................................................................................................................23 Figure 6 Seasonal cycles of snow water equivalent at regional SNOTEL sites near Chuska Mountains..........................................................................................................24 Figure 7 Average March SWE at Chuska Mountain and regional snow survey sites.....26 Figure 8 Interannual March SWE variability at Chuska Mountains snow courses ..........27 Figure 9 Comparison of March SWE interannual variability..............................................28 Figure 10a-f Plots with strongest and weakest correlations among Chuska Mountain Sites.................................................................................................................................31 Figure 11 Arbab's Forest 1 pt. Correlation Map..................................................................35 Figure 12 Beaver Spring 1pt correlation map .....................................................................36 Figure 13 Bowl Canyon 1pt Correlation Map ......................................................................38 Figure 14 Fluted Rock 1pt Correlation Map ........................................................................39 Figure 15 Hidden Valley 1 pt Correlation Map ....................................................................41 Figure 16 Missionary Springs 1pt Correlation Map.............................................................42 Figure 17 Tsaile I 1pt Correlation Map.................................................................................44 Figure 18 Tsaile III 1pt Correlation Map ..............................................................................45 Figure 19 Whiskey Creek 1pt Correlation Map ...................................................................46 Figure 20 Principal component time series of March SWE variability ..............................50 Figure 21 Correlation map using optimized March SWE variability..................................51 Figure 22 April snowpack interannual variability.................................................................53 4 Lani Tsinnajinnie TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract............................................................................................................................6 Introduction......................................................................................................................7 Background....................................................................................................................10 Setting, Data and Methods ............................................................................................14 Results...........................................................................................................................22 Seasonal Cycle and Interannual Variability................................................................22 March SWE Correlation..............................................................................................28 Eigen Analysis and Principal Component Analysis ....................................................47 Trend Analyses ..........................................................................................................52 References ....................................................................................................................60 Appendix A: Seasonal cycles for individual Chuska Mountains snow courses..............61 5 Lani Tsinnajinnie Abstract In the arid Southwest, snowpack in mountains plays an essential role in supplying surface water resources throughout the year. This research project uses several methods of statistical analysis to conduct a characterization of snowpack data in the Chuska Mountains and to compare snowpack data of the snow survey sites in the Chuska Mountains to one another and to other regional snow survey sites. Results from this research will provide the Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources information to help determine if any snow survey sites in the Chuska Mountains are redundant and can be discontinued to save time and money, while still providing snowpack information needed by the Navajo Nation. This research project will also provide the tribe with a summary of snowpack patterns, variability and trends in the Chuska Mountains. 6 Lani Tsinnajinnie Introduction In the Southwest region of the United States, snowpack is an important indicator of water resources. Monitoring snowpack can also be used for the interpretation and prediction of climate and hydrologic conditions in the region. Collecting and storing snowpack data is very crucial for water resources agencies and departments to characterize water resources for the year. The Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources collects snowpack data from the Chuska Mountains, which are located in northwestern New Mexico and northeastern Arizona on the Colorado Plateau. The Chuska Mountains are the major mountain range within the political boundaries of the Navajo Nation, thus the Chuska Mountains are a principal location for snowpack and headwaters. Every winter, between December and April, the Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources conducts snow surveys twice a month. These snow surveys are time-consuming and costly. However, collection of snowpack data is an important component of monitoring and managing water resources for the Navajo Nation. In a time of changing climate and uncertainties about water supply in the arid Southwest, more ways of efficiently collecting and interpreting data that would help in the forecast of water supplies are needed. This research may help the Navajo Nation make better predictions of its water supply, as well as provide additional information about the local and regional climate and hydrology. Additionally, this research would help the Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources have a better understanding of its snow survey sites that may save time and money for future collection of snowpack data. 7 Lani Tsinnajinnie The overall research question is “How well is snowpack in the Chuska Mountains represented, based on data from snow survey sites in the Chuska Mountains and from nearby regional snow survey sites?” This question is determined through several sub- questions: 1. What general climate and hydrologic snowpack trends including seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and time of maximum snow water equivalent, can be identified through analysis of the snowpack data in the Chuska Mountains? 2. How do snowpack data from the nine survey sites in the Chuska Mountains compare with one another? Are sites highly covariable? Are there any sites strongly correlated to one another so that data collection from one of those sites could be considered for cessation of
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