CUMBRIA ECONOMIC BULLETIN
March 2008
A JOINT PUBLICATION
Cumbr ia Economic Intelligence Partnership Centre for Regional Economic Development CONTENTS
Page Section Heading Number
Introduction 1
1 Macro-Economic Overview 2
2 Selected National Economic Indicators 4
3 Corporate Change in Cumbria 5
4 Unemployment and Claimant Data 11
5 Notified Vacancies Data 21
6 Cumbria Economic Assessment 2008: A Summary 23
7 The Spatial Interaction of Housing and Labour Markets: the 26 Case of Cumbria
8 Trends in Logistics in Cumbria: Employment, Skills and 34 Competitiveness
Appendix: Map of Cumbria Travel-to-Work Areas 38
Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
INTRODUCTION
Welcome to the March 2008 edition of the Cumbria Economic Bulletin .
For the benefit of new users, the Bulletin is jointly produced by the Centre for Regional Economic Development (CRED), at the University of Cumbria in Carlisle, and the Cumbria Economic Intelligence Partnership (CEIP). CEIP is a countywide group established to improve the understanding of the local economy and labour market through research, analysis and data dissemination. Partners in the group include Cumbria County Council, district councils, Cumbria Vision, Invest in Cumbria, Cumbria Tourism, the Lake District National Park, Cumbria Learning & Skills Council and Further Education Colleges. The Bulletin is intended to contain data relevant to the County for the benefit of a broad readership, but especially for policy makers, industrialists and academics.
We would like to take the opportunity to point out that a monthly unemployment and claimant count/rate briefing can be supplied via an e-mail distribution list. Names can be added to this list on request by e-mail to [email protected] .
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Any part of the bulletin may be reproduced by readers, providing that full acknowledgement of the source is quoted and, where applicable, an appropriate copyright notice is held.
We hope that you will find the Bulletin interesting and informative.
The Editorial Panel
Bulletin Contacts
Centre for Regional Economic Development [University of Cumbria – Paternoster Row, Carlisle Campus] Frank Peck T. 01228 888840 E. [email protected] Gail Mulvey T. 01228 888837 E. [email protected]
CEIP [Cumbria County Council] Daniel Bloomer T. 01228 606684 E. [email protected]
[Invest in Cumbria] Ginny Murphy T. 01768 895363 E. [email protected]
1 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
SECTION 1 MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Continued volatility in global financial markets
The past six months since the last Economic Bulletin has been marked by continued disruption to global financial markets and growing levels of uncertainty about medium- term prospects in the developed world economies. In its assessment of the international economy in January, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) drew attention to further deterioration in the housing market in the United States as a key factor in global instability although the extent to which this would affect other sectors of the US economy still remained unclear 1. Most market commentators, however, suggested that there is increased likelihood of recession in the US during 2008. The MPC February report continued its reference to weakness in the US situation reflecting what was referred to as the “largest fall in residential investments for 26 years”.
As regards the Euro zone, signs of a slow-down in growth were reported in the fourth quarter of 2007. MPC noted that growth in the Euro area had previously been driven by good export and investment performances, hence this slow-down might suggest that deceleration of world demand was beginning to have an impact. Further grounds for pessimism arose when estimates of growth in Japan were revised downwards and surveys indicated a fall in the level of business confidence in that country. By comparison, other Asian and emerging economies appeared to remain robust.
Trends in the UK economy
The most immediate impact of these global changes in the UK has been experienced in the banking sector where new loans to households and businesses have been tightened considerably 2. Latest GDP estimates also show only modest growth in the 4 th quarter of 2007 with slowdown concentrated in particular in the financial and retail sectors. While the likelihood of economic slowdown would suggest that interest rates should be reduced, MPC has also been concerned with inflationary pressures arising from projected higher energy and food prices in early 2008. There remains uncertainty about levels of inflation, however, partly dependent upon the extent to which consumers are prepared to absorb the higher input costs to producers and retailers. Some reports suggest, in fact, that retailers in particular are accepting lower profit margins in order to maintain sales volumes (see below).
In this fine balancing act, the base rate was reduced to 5.25 percent in February and held at that rate in the March meeting despite calls from some sectors of the economy (notably in manufacturing) for further cuts to stimulate growth. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, for instance, has reported that new car sales in February were down by over 5 percent on the previous year while the British Chamber of Commerce expressed the view that the decision to keep rates on hold in March was “mistaken given the worsening international and domestic situation”. On the one hand, there is tangible evidence of price rises in petrol, gas, electricity and food. However, it appears that recent rate cuts have failed to have any impact on the Consumer Confidence Index which has continued to fall 3. Figures released by the Halifax (HBOS) also suggest falling confidence in the housing market as house prices fell by 0.3 percent during February and reached a level over 4 percent lower than the average for the same month in 2007.
1 MPC Committee Minutes 9/10 th Jan 2008: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2008/index.htm 2 Inflation report http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/ir08febo.pdf 3 A. Seager, “Consumer confidence hits 9-year low”; guardian.co.uk: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/feb/28/retail.highstreetretailers
2 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Consumer confidence and the retail and leisure sectors
The reported fall in consumer confidence has not only affected the housing market but has also generated uncertainties in retailing and leisure markets. The trend in retail sales (by volume) has actually remained fairly steady to February 2008 (see Figure 1.1). Growth was 4.1 percent higher in the three months to January compared to the same period in the previous year. Growth was particularly strong for household good stores (up 9.8 percent). However, press reports during the early part of 2008 indicate that the retail sector itself is fairly pessimistic about the prospects for the remainder of 2008 4. It has been reported that consumer spending is projected to grow by only 2 percent during the year, the lowest rate since 2005 and there is an expectation that retailing could experience closures and job losses arising from corporate restructuring. Indeed, parts of the leisure sector, in particular restaurant chains and pubs, experienced corporate volatility arising from falls in share prices as early as December 2007 5. There remains, however, considerable uncertainty in consumer markets generally and businesses continue to experience difficulty in anticipating likely changes in patterns of spending. In March 2008, for instance, contrary to other analyses, the restaurant group that owns Garfunkel’s and various other chains actually reported a 4 percent rise in sales, up 1 percent on the last quarter of 2007. Most analysts, however, continue to predict full-year growth in the range 0-2 percent.
Figure 1.1: UK Change in Retail Sales (monthly by volume) 2004-2008
Source: National Statistics Online: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=256
4 See, for example, S. Hawkins, “A rate cut is unlikely to take the pain away from the retail sector”; TimesOnline, 3 rd January 2008) 5 D Walsh and G Rozenberg “Restaurants and pub warnings deepen fears consumers are losing appetite” TimesOnline, October 4 th 2007; Also, M Leroux “Consumer spending fears spark leisure sell-off” TimesOnline, 3 rd December 2007.
3 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
SECTION 2 SELECTED NATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Table 2.1: Economic Indicators
Change on previo Economic Indicator Level previous year us quarter earlier month Gross Domestic Product n/a +0.6% +2.9% (Q4 2007) Manufacturing output n/a +0.0% +0.3% (Jan. 2008) Service sector output n/a +0.6% +3.4% (Dec. 2007) Headline annual inflation 4.1% -0.5% (RPI) (Jan. 2008) Underlying annual inflation 3.4% -0.4% (RPIX 6) (Jan. 2008) Base (Repo) interest rate 5.25% -0.5% 0.0% (end Feb. 2008) UK claimant count / rate 0.81 million/ -32,300 -132,600 (Q4 2007) 2.6% UK ILO unemployment rate 5.2% -0.2% -0.3% (3 months to Dec. 2007) Whole economy productivity n/a +0.4% +2.6% (Q3 2007) Manufacturing productivity n/a +0.3% +2.8% (Q3 2007) Halifax house prices n/a -0.3% +4.2% (Feb. 2008) Sterling effective Exchange Rate Index (Jan. 2005=100) 95.05 -1.71% -5.89% -9.25% (end Feb. 2008)
Sources: National Statistics; Halifax Bank Online Statistics; Bank of England Online statistics; 10/3/08.
6 RPIX = Retail Price Index excluding mortgage interest payments
4 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
SECTION 3 CORPORATE CHANGE IN CUMBRIA
In the last six months, the number of reported job gains (685) has been roughly the same as the number of reported job losses (590). The sectoral distribution of reported job gains and losses can be seen in Table 3.1. There is a direct contrast between what has been reported as happening in the manufacturing sector verus the retail sector. There has been a total of 377 job losses in the manufacturing sector due mainly to the redundancies announced at the pharmaceutical firm, Glaxosmithkline. “GSK blamed increased competition and the loss of patents on some of its products (BBC News Cumbria website, 21.2.08).” The manufacture of certain intermediate stages of production is now going to be carried out by third parties instead. Also, Sealy UK, the bed manufacturer, announced that between 30 and 40 jobs would go at their plant in Aspatria as a result of a major contract coming to an end. However, the Managing Director, Jim Harrower, did say that “the firm would be investing £1M in new plant and machinery this year” (Times and Star, 25.2.08).
In contrast, the retail sector is reported as having the most job gains (299) in Cumbria. 274 of these are due to new stores opening for Sports Direct, Kendal; Tesco, Workington; Carlton Creations, Maryport; and Aldi, Carlisle. On the other hand, there have been some closures of small stores due to poor trade. These include the shoes firms, Stead and Simpson in Penrith and Kendal and Shoe Express, Workington. Two clothing retailers have also gone out of business, Travelling Light near Penrith and Autonomy, Workington.
The sector to have seen the second greatest number of reported job gains (125) is that of construction. This is due primarily to a new industrial estate being built in Cockermouth at Derwent Mills. “The park will house 12 units with a combined 50,000 sq. ft of floorspace aimed at light manufacturing and assembly firms” (The Cumberland News, 14.2.08).
In the Public Administration sector, reported job gains (92) have roughly equalled reported job losses (99). The gains are due mostly to Cumbria Police Force taking on new recruits and also Haverigg Prison recruiting more prison officers whilst the job losses emanate mainly from cuts at the Rural Payments Agency in Workington.
In the hotel and restaurant sector, reflecting the national picture described in the Macro-economic Overview, there are also mixed fortunes with 32 new jobs arising from the opening of a Travelodge in Carlisle and public house in Maryport but 23 jobs being lost due to the closure of both a restaurant and a bar in Carlisle. On the recreational front, 50 jobs are being created by JJB Sports as they plan to build a multi-million pound fitness club on the site of the Vasey’s old Galerie furniture store in Currock Road, Carlisle. There will be two gyms, a swimming pool, steam room, spa baths, solarium, sports shop and restaurant/café. 10 jobs will be created with the new motor bike trail and Go Ape forest adventure course at Whinlatter Forest Park. These jobs are designated as being in the Other Community, Social and Personal Service Activities sector.
In addition, there are at least 30 jobs in the pipeline if planning approval is granted for building flats and commercial units in the Old Market Hall, Portland Square, Workington.
5 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Table 3.1: Reported Jobs Gained and Lost by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
Jobs
To be / gained To be / lost
Mining and Quarrying - - Manufacturing 65 377 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply - - Construction 125 - Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles, 299 53 Motorcycles and Personal and Household Goods Hotels and Restaurants 32 23 Transport, Storage and Communication 2 3 Financial Intermediation - - Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities 10 26 Public Administration and Defence; Compulsory Social Security 92 99 Education - - Health and Social Work - 2 Other Community, Social and Personal Service Activities 60 7 Totals 685 590
The data in this table is based on the author’s allocations of reported job gains and losses to SIC codes and has not been verified by separate enquiry. Consequently, it should not be viewed as necessarily comprehensive or wholly accurate. Press reports generally do not identify how many jobs are full or part time, hence it is not possible to provide job numbers as Full Time Equivalents.
Table 3.2: Reported Jobs Gained and Lost – Breakdown
Jobs
Date Standard Industrial Firm Name Location Reason Quoted Reported Classification To be / lost To / be To be / Gained Gained To / be
New store opening. 6 Sports managerial posts and up to 14-Sep-07 Kendal Retail 46 Direct 40 sales assistants’ jobs are expected to be created.
Stead and 14-Sep-07 Kendal Retail 7 Store closure. Simpson
This Dutch dairy company has appointed 6 staff and Partners in bought 8 tankers in 14-Sep-07 Carlisle Manufacturing 6 Cheese readiness for its £50M cheese factory to be built at Kingmoor Park.
Hotels and A new £2.6M 66-bed hotel 28-Sep-07 Travelodge Carlisle 20 Restaurants opening in April.
6 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Jobs
Date Standard Industrial Firm Name Location Reason Quoted Reported Classification To be / lost To / be To be / Gained Gained To / be
Clock Tower 29-Sep-07 Millom Retail 4 Bancruptcy Café
Hadwins is a dealership and service centre for Volkswagon and Audi cars. Increased demand and 11-Oct-07 Hadwins Lindale Retail 3 becoming an authorised service centre for Skoda cars has led to the business’ expansion. The BBC are attempting to cut £2bn from their budget and are announcing Radio Transport, Storage widespread job losses 18-Oct-07 Carlisle 3 Cumbria and Communication across the corporation to pave the way for a merger between TV, radio and internet services. Expansion for the self- Transport, Storage 26-Oct-07 Storage King Embleton 2 storage giant as it opens a and Communication Cumbrian depot. New jobs have been created to deal with the anticipated demand for orders placed 01-Nov-07 Tesco Carlisle Retail 5 via Tesco Direct, an in-store catalogue shopping service launched by Carlisle’s Tesco Metro store.
Hotels and One of Maryport’s oldest 09-Nov-07 The Lifeboat Maryport 12 Restaurants pubs is about to re-open.
The trading standards office Cumbria Health and Social will lose two team members 23-Nov-07 County Carlisle 2 Work due to DEFRA animal health Council budget cuts. Real Estate, Renting The Creative The design agency is 23-Nov-07 Kendal and Business 2 Branch expanding. Activities
Real Estate, Renting Capita Growth in the town planning 07-Dec-07 Carlisle and Business 3 Symonds team. Activities Whinlatter Forest Park is to have a new motor bike trail and a Go Ape high wire forest adventure course. 15 Other community, Forestry Whinlatter km of single track trail will 07-Dec--07 social and personal 10 Commission Forest Park be built and bike hire service activities facilities will be provided. The new facilities are expected to open in Summer 2008.
7 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Jobs
Date Standard Industrial Firm Name Location Reason Quoted Reported Classification To be / lost To / be To be / Gained Gained To / be
These are “client-facing” staff who have been taken Business Real Estate, Renting on in the last 6 months as a 14-Dec-07 Link Cumbria and Business 5 result of the regionalisation Northwest Activities and restructuring of the organisation that went on earlier in the year. The developer is building a new industrial estate at Derwent Mills. The park will 14-Dec-07 Priority Sites Cockermouth Construction 100 house 12 units aimed at light manufacturing and assembly firms. 2 corporate directors are to Cumbria Public Administration lose their jobs as the 21-Dec-07 County Carlisle 2 and Defence Council aims to become Council more efficient and effective. Falling sales with strong Linton 04-Jan-08 Carlisle Manufacturing 12 competition from the Asia Tweeds market. The law firm is shedding Real Estate, Renting these employees as a result Temple Kendal and 01-Jan-08 and Business 26 of a drop in conveyancing Heelis Windermere Activities instructions and uncertainty in thee housing market. The firm supplies control and protection equipment for high-voltage electrical substations. It has been Acrastyle 06-Jan-08 Ulverston Manufacturing 34 awarded a grant of Ltd. £102,000 from Furness Enterprise to work on a £3M contract to upgrade the Saudi Arabian national grid. The new Commission are Maryport recruiting 3 people to take 10-Jan-08 Harbour Maryport Public Administration 3 over the running of the Commission harbour in February. Citizens Other community, These are administrative Kendal and 11-Jan-08 Advice social and personal 3 jobs that are being axed Ulverston Bureau service activities due to a lack of funding. Police and civilian staff will be recruited due to “good Cumbria money management by the 25-Jan-08 Cumbria Public Administration 80 Police Force force’s governing body” (Chief Constable Craig Mackey). New prison officer posts after the opening of the new Haverigg 31-Jan-08 Haverigg Public Administration 9 block (reported on in Prison Cumbria Economic Bulletin Mar. 2007). Staff have lost their jobs as the clothing retailer’s parent Travelling Morland and 31-Jan-08 Retail 25 company, OR Clothing, had Light Hackthorpe not paid the rent on the firm’s head office.
8 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Jobs
Date Standard Industrial Firm Name Location Reason Quoted Reported Classification To be / lost To / be To be / Gained Gained To / be
Other community, Brewery The Brewery faces a cash 01-Feb-08 Kendal social and personal 4 Arts Centre deficit next year. service activities These jobs will be created Other community, once a multi-million pound 01-Feb-08 JJB Sports Carlisle social and personal 50 fitness club is built on service activities Currock Road. The food hall is being expanded – the shop will 09-Feb-08 Cranstons Penrith Retail 15 obtain more floor space and a café-restaurant in a £500,000 investment.
The ladies fashion shop is 11-Feb-08 Autonomy Workington Retail 5 closing due to poor trade.
Shoe 11-Feb-08 Workington Retail 6 The company is being sold. Express
A Tesco Extra store is being built to replace their current supermarket on New Bridge 13-Feb-08 Tesco Workington Retail 200 Rd and it will have a petrol station and café too. These jobs are in addition to the 300 at the existing store. Holiday cottages are to be built after the sale of the 15-Feb-08 Irton Hall Holmrook Construction 25 stately home in a £1.5M deal. The pharmaceuticals firm is scaling down operations due Glaxosmith to rising site costs and 21-Feb-08 Ulverston Manufacturing 330 kline decreasing competitiveness. The job cuts will be made over the next two years. Staff will lose their jobs on Rural March 28 th as efficiencies 25-Feb-08 Payments Workington Public Administration 97 are made in the Single Agency Payments Scheme due to budget cuts at DEFRA.
Leonardo’s Hotels and Closure due to a lack of 25-Feb-08 Carlisle 12 Restaurant Restaurants trade.
Closure of the shop. The chain has gone into Stead and 25-Feb-08 Penrith Retail 6 administration. It is being Simpson bought by national chain Shoe Zone Group. A ceramic manufacturer is Carlton to open a shop and café on 25-Feb-08 Maryport Retail 15 Creations the site of the former Carlton Cinema.
9 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Jobs
Date Standard Industrial Firm Name Location Reason Quoted Reported Classification To be / lost To / be To be / Gained Gained To / be
A move to new premises at Kingstown, Carlisle has Wholesale and Retail 25-Feb-08 Gates Tyres Carlisle 2 allowed it to do everything Trade under one roof with better facilities. Between 30 and 40 jobs are going as a major contract 25-Feb-08 Sealy UK Aspatria Manufacturing 35* comes to an end at the bed manufacturer’s plant. Closure. The owner, the Laurel Pub Company, Yates Wine Hotels and 26-Feb-08 Carlisle 11 blames difficult trading and Lodge Restaurants the impact of the smoking ban. The new supermarket is due to open in early 2009 on the 26-Feb-08 Aldi Carlisle Retail 13 old London Rd. site of Cavaghan and Gray. The nuclear decommissioning and environmental specialist, React 27-Feb-08 Carlisle Manufacturing 25 based at Westlakes near Engineering Whitehaven, opened new premises at Clifford Court, Kingstown.
* This figure is a mid-range figure taken from the range which the company quoted as the estimated job losses. The information in this table has been obtained from local press reports and has not been verified by separate enquiry. Consequently, it should not be viewed as necessarily comprehensive or wholly accurate. Press reports generally do not identify how many jobs are full or part time, hence it is not possible to provide job numbers as Full Time Equivalents.
10 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
SECTION 4 UNEMPLOYMENT AND CLAIMANT DATA
Claimant trends in Cumbria
The number of people claiming unemployment benefit has fallen in Cumbria from a year ago. The figures reveal an annual fall of 14.7% for the County between Jan 2007 and Jan 2008 with 860 fewer claimants (down to 5,009 people); see Table 4.1. This is a slightly higher fall than in the UK (down 13.9%) and in the North West (down 8.8%). Unemployment has fallen over the year in all districts with the highest percentage falls in South Lakeland (down 23.9%) and Carlisle (down 18.9%).
The picture is different when viewed over a 6-month period. Between July 2007 and Jan 2008, unemployment in Cumbria rose by 2.7% (133) which is in contrast to a fall of 2.8% in the UK and is higher than the increase in the North West (up 1.2%). The number of claimants rose in all districts over 6 months with the exception of Barrow where the number fell by 25. However the changes over a 6 month period are significantly influenced by seasonal factors and therefore the change over 12 months gives a better indication of trends.
Table 4.1: Claimant counts – Cumbria and local authority districts
6-Month Change Annual Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 Jul 07-Jan 08 Jan 07-Jan 08 No % No % Allerdale 1,256 1,044 1,058 14 1.3 -198 -15.8 Barrow 1,246 1,127 1,102 -25 -2.2 -144 -11.6 Carlisle 1,410 1,142 1,143 1 0.1 -267 -18.9 Copeland 1,169 1,010 1,090 80 7.9 -79 -6.8 Eden 269 190 221 31 16.3 -48 -17.8 South Lakeland 519 363 395 32 8.8 -124 -23.9 Cumbria 5,869 4,876 5,009 133 2.7 -860 -14.7 North West 120,858 108,979 110,250 1,271 1.2 -10,608 -8.8 UK 965,097 854,149 830,542 -23,607 -2.8 -134,555 -13.9 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
The fall from 12 months ago is particularly encouraging and continues the trend seen in the last Bulletin. Data on vacancies in the following chapter shows that notified vacancies are reasonably stable and taken together, these two trends perhaps indicate signs of a stabilising job market in Cumbria.
The trends in numbers of claimants are also reflected in the rates of unemployment for the districts (% of working age population) which are shown in Table 4.2. Across the County as a whole, the official unemployment rate was 1.7% in Jan 2008, up from 1.6% in July 2007 but down from 2.0% in Jan 2007. The rate in Cumbria remains well below the UK rate which fell over 6 and 12 months.
11 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Table 4.2: Claimant count rates (resident based) – Cumbria, districts and UK
6-Month Change Annual Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 Jul 07–Jan 08 Jan 07-Jan 08 Allerdale 2.2 1.9 1.9 0.0 -0.4 Barrow 2.9 2.6 2.5 -0.1 -0.3 Carlisle 2.2 1.8 1.8 0.0 -0.4 Copeland 2.7 2.3 2.5 0.2 -0.2 Eden 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.1 -0.2 South Lakeland 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.1 -0.2 Cumbria 2.0 1.6 1.7 0.0 -0.3 North West 2.9 2.6 2.6 0.0 -0.3 UK 2.6 2.3 2.2 -0.1 -0.4 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
Figure 4.1 charts the unemployment rate monthly over three years from Jan 2005 through to Jan 2008. This shows that the trend in Cumbria has remained broadly in line with the UK.
It is very obvious that the rates in Eden and South Lakeland consistently run well below the UK average. Barrow continues to have rates above the UK average and rates in Copeland have returned to higher than the UK having been similar in mid 2007.
Figure 4.1: Claimant rate trends, Cumbrian Districts compared to UK: Jan 2005-Jan 2008
Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
12 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Analysis of the data by Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) allows some of the variations within districts to be more clearly seen. Absolute claimant counts are low in Appleby, Keswick, Windermere and Penrith, while the major industrial centres have counts ranging from 989 to 1,253 (Table 4.3). The Jan 2008 figures show an annual fall in all TTWAs. Numerically, the biggest fall over 12 months was in Carlisle (down 305).
Table 4.3: Claimant counts in Cumbria travel-to-work areas (TTWAs)
6-Month Change Annual Change Jul 07-Jan 08 Jan 07-Jan 08 Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 No % No %
Appleby 65 55 44 -11 -20.0 -21 -32.3 Barrow 1,418 1,253 1,253 0 0.0 -165 -11.6 Carlisle 1,525 1,227 1,220 -7 -0.6 -305 -20.0 Kendal 286 203 196 -7 -3.4 -90 -31.5 Keswick 48 25 41 16 64.0 -7 -14.6 Penrith 179 116 155 39 33.6 -24 -13.4 Whitehaven 1,134 975 1,046 71 7.3 -88 -7.8 Windermere 56 27 46 19 70.4 -10 -17.9 Workington 1,135 972 989 17 1.7 -146 -12.9 Cumbria 5,869 4,876 5,009 133 2.7 -860 -14.7 North West 120,858 108,979 110,250 1,271 1.2 -10,608 -8.8 UK 965,097 854,149 830,542 -23,607 -2.8 -134,555 -13.9 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
Not surprisingly, claimant count rates for TTWAs (Table 4.4) follow similar trends to those already observed. Rates in Appleby, Kendal, Keswick, Penrith and Windermere are less than 1%. Whitehaven remains the only TTWA with a claimant count rate above the national average .
Table 4.4: Claimant count rates (resident based) – Cumbria Travel to Work Areas 6-Month Annual Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 Change Change Jul 07–Jan 08 Jan 07-Jan 08 Appleby 0.8 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 Barrow 2.5 2.3 2.3 0.0 -0.3 Carlisle 2.2 1.8 1.8 0.0 -0.4 Kendal 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.3 Keswick 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 -0.1 Penrith 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.1 Whitehaven 2.8 2.4 2.6 0.2 -0.2 Windermere 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 Workington 2.6 2.2 2.2 0.0 -0.3 Cumbria 2.0 1.6 1.7 0.0 -0.3 North West 2.9 2.6 2.6 0.0 -0.3 UK 2.6 2.3 2.2 -0.1 -0.4 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
Long Term Unemployment
The number of long-term unemployed (those claiming benefits for over one year) has fallen by almost half over the past 12 months, with the fall particularly marked in Carlisle where the number fell by 66.7% (Table 4.5). The rate of decrease continues to
13 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008 be significantly higher in all Cumbrian districts than nationally and regionally which is a welcome reversal of the trend seen in recent years. The fall has been smallest in Eden, at 20%, but levels were extremely low here to start with. Table 4.5: Number of Long Term Unemployed Claimants (12 mths+) 6-Month Change Annual Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 Jul 07-Jan 08 Jan 07-Jan 08 No % No %
Allerdale 195 155 110 -45 -29.0 -85 -43.6 Barrow 210 145 130 -15 -10.3 -80 -38.1 Carlisle 210 120 70 -50 -41.7 -140 -66.7 Copeland 235 175 125 -50 -28.6 -110 -46.8 Eden 25 10 20 10 100.0 -5 -20.0 South Lakeland 40 25 20 -5 -20.0 -20 -50.0 Appleby TTWA 0 0 5 5 100.0 5 100.0 Barrow TTWA 235 160 145 -15 -9.4 -90 -38.3 Carlisle TTWA 230 130 75 -55 -42.3 -155 -67.4 Kendal TTWA 10 5 5 0 0.0 -5 -50.0 Keswick TTWA 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 Penrith TTWA 20 10 10 0 0.0 -10 -50.0 Whitehaven TTWA 230 165 115 -50 -30.3 -115 -50.0 Windermere TTWA 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 Workington TTWA 180 150 110 -40 -26.7 -70 -38.9 Cumbria 920 625 470 -155 -24.8 -450 -48.9 North West 18,060 16,405 14,495 -1,910 -11.6 -3,565 -19.7 - United Kingdom 159,550 142,190 117,390 -24,800 -17.4 42,160 -26.4 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS (data rounded –values may not sum)
The proportion of the unemployed out of work for more than 12 months is a good indicator of labour market conditions in an area and again there has been an improvement in Cumbria. The proportion has fallen in all districts over the past 12 months and particularly in Carlisle and Copeland. The proportion of LTU is now lower than nationally in all Cumbrian districts and in all TTWAs except Appleby.
Table 4.6: Proportion of Claimants Who are Long Term Unemployed (12 mths+) 6-Month Change Annual Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 Jul 07–Jan 08 Jan 07-Jan 08 Allerdale 15.6 14.9 10.4 -4.5 -5.2 Barrow 16.8 12.7 11.8 -0.9 -5.0 Carlisle 15.1 10.5 6.0 -4.5 -9.1 Copeland 20.2 17.1 11.5 -5.6 -8.7 Eden 8.9 6.3 8.1 1.8 -0.8 South Lakeland 8.1 6.3 4.6 -1.7 -3.5 Appleby TTWA 3.1 1.8 15.9 14.1 12.8 Barrow TTWA 16.7 12.8 11.4 -1.4 -5.3 Carlisle TTWA 15.1 10.4 6.2 -4.2 -8.9 Kendal TTWA 3.5 2.0 2.6 0.6 -0.9 Keswick TTWA 2.1 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.1 Penrith TTWA 11.2 8.7 5.8 -2.9 -5.4 Whitehaven TTWA 20.4 17.1 11.2 -5.9 -9.2 Windermere TTWA 3.6 3.7 0.0 -3.7 -3.6 Workington TTWA 16.1 15.7 11.2 -4.5 -4.9 Cumbria 15.7 12.8 9.4 -3.4 -6.3 North West 15.0 15.1 13.2 -1.9 -1.8
14 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
United Kingdom 16.6 16.7 14.2 -2.5 -2.4 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS The Office for National Statistics has recently re-introduced data relating to flows on and off the unemployment register. One element of this is the destination of those leaving the register which can be analysed by the reason for leaving (Tables 4.7 and 4.8). In the last six months, 8,045 people left the register in Cumbria – the highest number being in Carlisle. Of those who gave a reason, more than half had left the register because they found work. This proportion was particularly high in Eden and South Lakeland.
Table 4.7: Destination of Those Leaving the Register (number) Aug 07–Jan 08
Allerdale Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden South Lakeland Cumbria
No No No No No No No Found work 755 680 840 645 175 455 3,550 Increased work to 16+ hours/week 15 10 10 5 0 0 45 Gone abroad 55 50 60 45 15 30 255 Claimed Income Support 35 15 25 20 10 5 110 Claimed Incapacity Benefit 100 90 50 75 15 35 370 Claimed another benefit 30 50 80 30 10 25 225 Gone to full-time education 5 20 15 20 5 5 75 Gone onto approved training 5 10 5 0 0 0 25 Transfer to Govt-supported training 130 110 135 130 5 15 530 Retirement age reached 5 0 0 10 0 0 15 Automatic credits payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Claims back-to-work bonus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gone to prison 25 25 45 15 0 5 115 Attending court 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New claim review 70 5 5 10 0 5 95 Defective claim 15 10 25 10 5 10 70 Ceased claiming 20 60 40 30 5 45 200 Deceased 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Not known 90 70 80 55 15 15 325 Failed to sign 345 375 600 400 80 240 2,040 Total 1,700 1,580 2,025 1,515 340 890 8,045 Figures rounded to nearest 5. Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
Table 4.8: Destination of Those Leaving the Register (proportion) Aug 07–Jan 08
Allerdale Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden South Lakeland Cumbria North West United Kingdom
% % % % % % % % % Found work 59.9 59.5 62.5 61.2 72.4 71.6 62.5 59.9 59.5 Increased work to 16+ hours/week 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.1 Gone abroad 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.4 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.4 4.2 Claimed Income Support 2.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 3.3 0.6 1.9 2.6 1.4 Claimed Incapacity Benefit 7.8 8.1 3.7 7.3 6.2 5.7 6.5 7.8 8.1 Claimed another benefit 2.5 4.2 6.1 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.9 2.5 4.2 Gone to full-time education 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.0 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.6 1.9 Gone onto approved training 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 Transfer to Govt-supported training 10.4 9.6 9.9 12.5 2.9 2.4 9.3 10.4 9.6 Retirement age reached 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 Automatic credits payable 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 Claims back-to-work bonus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gone to prison 2.0 2.3 3.2 1.5 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.3 Attending court 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New claim review 5.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.5 1.7 5.7 0.5 Defective claim 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 Ceased claiming 1.4 5.3 3.1 2.7 2.1 7.3 3.5 1.4 5.3
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Deceased 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS NB: Percentages are of those for whom a reason for leaving the register was given and therefore do not include the not known or failed to sign categories. Claimant counts by ward across Cumbria
Table 4.9 shows claimant counts rates at ward level across Cumbria. At this degree of spatial disaggregation there is much more variability in the trends. Forty one of the 168 wards in Cumbria experienced a rise in claimants between Jan 2007 and Jan 2008 but only in Belah, Ulverston East, Kells and Newtown was the rise in double figures.
Almost a hundred wards experienced a fall in claimant numbers with a further 7 showing no change. Of those wards showing falling numbers of claimants, the biggest decreases were in Botcherby (-56), Upperby (-42), Hindpool (-36) and Central, Castle and Currock (all -31).
Table 4.9: Cumbrian ward level claimant counts and rates
Annual 6-Month Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 Change Jan 07- ALLERDALE Jul 07-Jan 08 Jan08 No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate All Saints 41 1.4 35 1.2 37 1.3 2 0.1 -4 -0.1 Aspatria 56 2.9 45 2.3 47 2.5 2 0.1 -9 -0.5 Boltons 9 0.8 # # 6 0.6 # 0.4 -3 -0.3 Broughton St Bridget's 37 1.5 29 1.2 29 1.2 0 0.0 -8 -0.3 Christchurch 25 1.4 25 1.4 28 1.5 3 0.2 3 0.2 Clifton 19 2.1 19 2.1 17 1.9 -2 -0.2 -2 -0.2 Crummock 3 0.3 3 0.3 9 1.0 6 0.7 6 0.7 Dalton 8 0.8 10 1.0 5 0.5 -5 -0.5 -3 -0.3 Derwent Valley # # # # 5 0.5 # 0.4 # 0.4 Ellen 25 1.3 24 1.2 27 1.4 3 0.2 2 0.1 Ellenborough 86 3.8 62 2.7 60 2.7 -2 -0.1 -26 -1.1 Ewanrigg 106 5.2 81 4.0 86 4.2 5 0.2 -20 -1.0 Flimby 31 3.2 32 3.3 24 2.5 -8 -0.8 -7 -0.7 Harrington 25 1.3 24 1.3 16 0.8 -8 -0.4 -9 -0.5 Holme 11 1.1 10 1.0 13 1.4 3 0.3 2 0.2 Keswick 27 0.9 13 0.4 22 0.7 9 0.3 -5 -0.2 Marsh 7 0.7 5 0.5 4 0.4 -1 -0.1 -3 -0.3 Moorclose 107 3.7 87 3.0 93 3.2 6 0.2 -14 -0.5 Moss Bay 141 5.5 152 6.0 145 5.7 -7 -0.3 4 0.2 Netherhall 57 3.0 54 2.8 54 2.8 0 0.0 -3 -0.2 St John's 72 2.2 47 1.4 52 1.6 5 0.2 -20 -0.6 St Michael's 130 4.1 103 3.2 108 3.4 5 0.2 -22 -0.7 Seaton 57 1.8 50 1.6 52 1.7 2 0.1 -5 -0.2 Silloth 36 2.0 28 1.6 25 1.4 -3 -0.2 -11 -0.6 Solway 13 1.3 11 1.1 14 1.4 3 0.3 1 0.1 Stainburn 15 1.4 8 0.7 9 0.8 1 0.1 -6 -0.6 Wampool 14 1.4 9 0.9 6 0.6 -3 -0.3 -8 -0.8 Warnell 5 0.4 # # # # # -0.1 # -0.4 Waver 9 0.8 12 1.0 5 0.4 -7 -0.6 -4 -0.3 Wharrels 13 1.4 9 0.9 7 0.7 -2 -0.2 -6 -0.6 Wigton 70 2.2 52 1.7 52 1.7 0 0.0 -18 -0.6
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6-Month Annual Change Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 BARROW Jul 07- Jan 07- Jan 08 Jan08 No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate Barrow Island 112 6.8 90 5.5 92 5.6 2 0.1 -20 -1.2 Central 243 7.3 218 6.5 212 6.3 -6 -0.2 -31 -0.9 Dalton North 57 1.4 50 1.2 65 1.6 15 0.4 8 0.2 Dalton South 77 2.0 57 1.5 59 1.6 2 0.1 -18 -0.5 Hawcoat 21 0.7 27 0.9 22 0.8 -5 -0.2 1 0.0 Hindpool 190 5.8 160 4.9 154 4.7 -6 -0.2 -36 -1.1 Newbarns 60 1.8 64 1.9 62 1.8 -2 -0.1 2 0.1 Ormsgill 139 3.7 144 3.9 131 3.5 -13 -0.3 -8 -0.2 Parkside 54 1.5 45 1.3 43 1.2 -2 -0.1 -11 -0.3 Risedale 111 3.4 105 3.2 116 3.5 11 0.3 5 0.2 Roosecote 59 1.7 51 1.5 40 1.2 -11 -0.3 -19 -0.6 Walney North 61 1.9 57 1.8 50 1.6 -7 -0.2 -11 -0.3 Walney South 62 1.8 59 1.7 56 1.6 -3 -0.1 -6 -0.2
6-Month Annual Change Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 CARLISLE Jul 07- Jan 07- Jan 08 Jan08 No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate Belah 45 1.2 49 1.3 56 1.5 7 0.2 11 0.3 Belle Vue 92 2.7 94 2.8 83 2.4 -11 -0.3 -9 -0.3 Botcherby 155 4.3 106 3.0 99 2.8 -7 -0.2 -56 -1.6 Brampton 54 2.2 62 2.5 55 2.2 -7 -0.3 1 0.0 Burgh 13 1.1 12 1.0 15 1.2 3 0.2 2 0.2 Castle 163 4.3 139 3.7 132 3.5 -7 -0.2 -31 -0.8 Currock 119 3.3 87 2.4 88 2.4 1 0.0 -31 -0.9 Dalston 38 1.3 25 0.8 20 0.7 -5 -0.2 -18 -0.6 Denton Holme 91 2.4 74 2.0 84 2.2 10 0.3 -7 -0.2 Great Corby & Geltsdale 9 0.7 9 0.7 12 0.9 3 0.2 3 0.2 Harraby 86 2.6 55 1.6 66 2.0 11 0.3 -20 -0.6 Hayton 10 0.8 8 0.6 14 1.1 6 0.5 4 0.3 Irthing 14 1.1 10 0.8 5 0.4 -5 -0.4 -9 -0.7 Longtown & Rockcliffe 45 1.9 33 1.4 29 1.2 -4 -0.2 -16 -0.7 Lyne 8 0.7 9 0.8 6 0.5 -3 -0.3 -2 -0.2 Morton 90 2.9 80 2.6 76 2.5 -4 -0.1 -14 -0.5 St Aidans 95 2.5 98 2.6 99 2.6 1 0.0 4 0.1 Stanwix Rural 26 1.1 20 0.8 15 0.6 -5 -0.2 -11 -0.5 Stanwix Urban 27 0.8 20 0.6 20 0.6 0 0.0 -7 -0.2 Upperby 159 5.2 108 3.5 117 3.8 9 0.3 -42 -1.4 Wetheral 18 0.8 8 0.3 16 0.7 8 0.3 -2 -0.1 Yewdale 53 1.4 36 0.9 36 0.9 0 0.0 -17 -0.4
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6-Month Annual Change Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 COPELAND Jul 07-Jan Jan 07- 08 Jan08 No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate Arlecdon 24 2.3 15 1.5 16 1.6 1 0.1 -8 -0.8 Beckermet 23 1.4 30 1.8 29 1.7 -1 -0.1 6 0.4 Bootle 7 0.9 3 0.4 4 0.5 1 0.1 -3 -0.4 Bransty 47 1.6 43 1.4 47 1.6 4 0.1 0 0.0 Cleator Moor North 80 3.2 70 2.8 79 3.1 9 0.4 -1 0.0 Cleator Moor South 66 4.0 56 3.4 66 4.0 10 0.6 0 0.0 Distington 77 3.2 67 2.8 79 3.3 12 0.5 2 0.1 Egremont North 93 3.7 75 3.0 87 3.4 12 0.5 -6 -0.2 Egremont South 59 2.7 54 2.4 53 2.4 -1 0.0 -6 -0.3 Ennerdale 6 0.9 8 1.2 8 1.2 0 0.0 2 0.3 Frizington 70 4.5 62 4.0 56 3.6 -6 -0.4 -14 -0.9 Gosforth 3 0.4 # # 4 0.5 # 0.2 1 0.1 Harbour 114 4.8 91 3.9 95 4.0 4 0.2 -19 -0.8 Haverigg 9 0.7 8 0.6 11 0.9 3 0.2 2 0.2 Hensingham 66 2.6 55 2.2 55 2.2 0 0.0 -11 -0.4 Hillcrest 9 0.5 12 0.7 10 0.6 -2 -0.1 1 0.1 Holborn Hill 45 3.0 32 2.2 42 2.8 10 0.7 -3 -0.2 Kells 28 1.9 33 2.2 40 2.7 7 0.5 12 0.8 Millom Without 8 0.9 11 1.3 4 0.5 -7 -0.8 -4 -0.5 Mirehouse 126 4.8 114 4.3 107 4.1 -7 -0.3 -19 -0.7 Moresby 17 2.2 8 1.0 18 2.3 10 1.3 1 0.1 Newtown 52 2.5 49 2.3 66 3.1 17 0.8 14 0.7 St Bees 13 1.4 13 1.4 7 0.7 -6 -0.6 -6 -0.6 Sandwith 111 6.9 92 5.8 90 5.6 -2 -0.1 -21 -1.3 Seascale 16 1.0 7 0.4 17 1.1 10 0.6 1 0.1
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6-Month Annual Change Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 EDEN Jul 07 Jan 07-Jan08 -Jan 08 No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate Alston Moor 18 1.4 16 1.2 17 1.3 1 0.1 -1 -0.1 Appleby (Appleby) 12 1.7 9 1.3 6 0.9 -3 -0.4 -6 -0.9 Appleby (Bongate) 4 0.4 3 0.3 5 0.6 2 0.2 1 0.1 Askham 4 0.5 3 0.4 3 0.4 0 0.0 -1 -0.1 Brough 6 0.8 4 0.5 4 0.5 0 0.0 -2 -0.3 Crosby Ravensworth # # 5 0.6 4 0.5 -1 -0.1 # 0.2 Dacre 5 0.6 4 0.5 3 0.4 -1 -0.1 -2 -0.3 Eamont # # 3 0.4 7 0.9 4 0.5 # 0.8 Greystoke 7 0.8 3 0.3 5 0.6 2 0.2 -2 -0.2 Hartside # # # # 4 0.6 # 0.4 # 0.3 Hesket 10 0.6 5 0.3 8 0.5 3 0.2 -2 -0.1 Kirkby Stephen 10 0.7 13 0.9 9 0.6 -4 -0.3 -1 -0.1 Kirkby Thore 9 1.0 7 0.8 10 1.1 3 0.3 1 0.1 Kirkoswald # # # # # # # 0.1 # 0.1 Langwathby 4 0.5 3 0.4 # # # -0.1 # -0.2 Lazonby 8 1.0 4 0.5 9 1.1 5 0.6 1 0.1 Long Marton # # # # 0 0.0 # -0.3 # -0.3 Morland # # # # 4 0.5 # 0.3 # 0.3 Orton with Tebay 7 0.8 3 0.3 3 0.3 0 0.0 -4 -0.5 Penrith Carleton 6 0.7 4 0.4 # # # -0.2 # -0.4 Penrith East 31 2.1 11 0.7 21 1.4 10 0.7 -10 -0.7 Penrith North 28 1.1 23 0.9 23 0.9 0 0.0 -5 -0.2 Penrith Pategill 14 2.0 14 2.0 10 1.5 -4 -0.6 -4 -0.6 Penrith South 18 1.3 6 0.4 13 0.9 7 0.5 -5 -0.4 Penrith West 23 1.2 16 0.8 24 1.3 8 0.4 1 0.1 Ravenstonedale 5 0.9 4 0.7 # # # -0.4 # -0.6 Shap 14 1.7 4 0.5 7 0.9 3 0.4 -7 -0.9 Skelton 5 0.6 4 0.5 5 0.6 1 0.1 0 0.0 Ullswater 8 0.9 5 0.6 5 0.6 0 0.0 -3 -0.3 Warcop 3 0.4 8 1.0 4 0.5 -4 -0.5 1 0.1
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6-Month Annual Change Change Jan 07 July 07 Jan 08 SOUTH LAKELAND Jul 07-Jan Jan 07-Jan08 08 No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate No Rate Arnside & Beetham 9 0.4 8 0.4 14 0.7 6 0.3 5 0.2 Broughton 12 0.8 11 0.8 4 0.3 -7 -0.5 -8 -0.6 Burneside 16 1.3 12 1.0 3 0.2 -9 -0.7 -13 -1.1 Burton & Holme 6 0.4 5 0.3 6 0.4 1 0.1 0 0.0 Cartmel 9 1.0 5 0.5 3 0.3 -2 -0.2 -6 -0.6 Coniston 7 0.6 # # 8 0.7 # 0.5 1 0.1 Crake Valley 7 0.6 6 0.5 6 0.5 0 0.0 -1 -0.1 Crooklands 12 0.9 8 0.6 6 0.4 -2 -0.1 -6 -0.4 Grange 7 0.4 6 0.3 7 0.4 1 0.1 0 0.0 Hawkshead 8 0.8 4 0.4 4 0.4 0 0.0 -4 -0.4 Holker 5 0.5 8 0.8 6 0.6 -2 -0.2 1 0.1 Kendal Castle 7 0.6 5 0.5 8 0.7 3 0.3 1 0.1 Kendal Far Cross 23 1.9 21 1.7 14 1.1 -7 -0.6 -9 -0.7 Kendal Fell 16 1.5 8 0.7 7 0.7 -1 -0.1 -9 -0.8 Kendal Glebelands 8 0.7 8 0.7 3 0.3 -5 -0.4 -5 -0.4 Kendal Heron Hill 5 0.4 3 0.2 4 0.3 1 0.1 -1 -0.1 Kendal Highgate 18 1.7 7 0.6 11 1.0 4 0.4 -7 -0.6 Kendal Kirkland 21 1.8 20 1.8 24 2.1 4 0.4 3 0.3 Kendal Mintsfeet 18 1.3 11 0.8 8 0.6 -3 -0.2 -10 -0.7 Kendal Nether 7 0.7 6 0.6 5 0.5 -1 -0.1 -2 -0.2 Kendal Oxenholme 13 0.9 7 0.5 15 1.1 8 0.6 2 0.1 Kendal Parks 10 0.7 # # # # # 0.0 # -0.6 Kendal Stonecross 5 0.5 3 0.3 3 0.3 0 0.0 -2 -0.2 Kendal Strickland 15 1.3 8 0.7 7 0.6 -1 -0.1 -8 -0.7 Kendal Underley 18 1.5 14 1.1 10 0.8 -4 -0.3 -8 -0.6 Kirkby Lonsdale 5 0.4 7 0.5 # # # -0.4 # -0.2 Lakes Ambleside 10 0.4 4 0.2 9 0.4 5 0.2 -1 0.0 Lakes Grasmere 3 0.3 3 0.3 # # # -0.2 # -0.2 Levens 4 0.4 4 0.4 # # # -0.2 # -0.2 Low Furness & Swarthmoor 22 0.9 18 0.8 18 0.8 0 0.0 -4 -0.2 Lyth Valley # # 5 0.4 5 0.4 0 0.0 # 0.2 Milnthorpe 12 1.0 7 0.6 14 1.1 7 0.6 2 0.2 Natland 6 0.5 # # 4 0.4 # 0.2 -2 -0.2 Sedbergh 9 0.4 8 0.4 4 0.2 -4 -0.2 -5 -0.2 Staveley-in-Cartmel 5 0.5 # # # # # 0.1 # -0.3 Staveley-in-Westmorland 6 0.5 7 0.6 5 0.4 -2 -0.2 -1 -0.1 Ulverston Central 31 2.7 22 1.9 31 2.7 9 0.8 0 0.0 Ulverston East 19 1.5 15 1.2 30 2.3 15 1.2 11 0.9 Ulverston North 16 1.4 12 1.1 16 1.4 4 0.4 0 0.0 Ulverston South 17 1.6 12 1.1 13 1.2 1 0.1 -4 -0.4 Ulverston Town 34 3.0 18 1.6 21 1.9 3 0.3 -13 -1.2 Ulverston West 6 0.6 8 0.8 4 0.4 -4 -0.4 -2 -0.2 Whinfell 4 0.3 3 0.2 5 0.4 2 0.2 1 0.1 Windermere App’waite 6 0.5 4 0.3 4 0.3 0 0.0 -2 -0.2 Windermere Bowness N # # # # 7 0.6 # 0.5 # 0.4 Windermere Bowness S 5 0.4 # # 7 0.6 # 0.4 2 0.2 Windermere Town 13 0.9 # # 3 0.2 # 0.1 -10 -0.7 # figures suppressed for disclosure purposes Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
20 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
SECTION 5 NOTIFIED VACANCIES DATA
The statistics given in this section comprise only job vacancies that have been notified to Jobcentre Plus and it should be noted that not all job opportunities are publicised in this way. Furthermore, the data may be influenced by activities to target certain sectors or from administrative actions which result in vacancies being notified to different offices.
Table 5.1 shows the trend in total notified vacancies. It can be seen that the number of vacancies notified in all parts of Cumbria was highest in the autumn. Over the full 6 months, Carlisle district accounted for the highest number (4,433), followed by South Lakeland (3,318). Copeland recorded the lowest number of notified vacancies (1,423). There was a significant fall in the number of vacancies in January 2008 but this is a normal trend as Christmas employment ends and tourist season recruitment has not begun.
Table 5.1: Total notified vacancy numbers 6 mth Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Total Allerdale 314 509 403 381 443 170 2,220 Barrow in Furness 326 267 342 273 318 227 1,753 Carlisle 725 915 759 696 1,001 337 4,433 Copeland 287 388 223 194 266 65 1,423 Eden 247 396 413 211 231 128 1,626 South Lakeland 520 784 796 517 516 185 3,318 Appleby TTWA 12 20 51 16 11 2 112 Barrow-in-Furness TTWA 396 361 470 334 408 253 2,222 Carlisle TTWA 753 942 781 719 1,016 358 4,569 Kendal TTWA 310 490 498 289 294 123 2,004 Keswick TTWA 68 78 125 62 68 49 450 Penrith TTWA 228 364 317 193 217 126 1,445 Whitehaven TTWA 279 377 220 194 265 62 1,397 Windermere TTWA 134 180 160 157 126 35 792 Workington TTWA 233 424 302 298 363 103 1,723 Cumbria 2,419 3,259 2,936 2,272 2,775 1,112 14,773 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
Table 5.2 shows the trend in notified vacancy numbers for Cumbria by sector and shows that the finance/business services and retail/hospitality sectors typically account for the highest number of vacancies.
Table 5.2: Notified vacancy numbers by Broad Industrial Group Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 6 mth Broad Industrial Group 07 07 07 07 07 08 Total Agriculture & fishing 9 28 6 17 23 0 83 Energy & water 2 5 22 4 4 7 44 Manufacturing 103 96 69 89 60 24 441 Construction 138 155 64 64 124 19 564 Retail, hotels & restaurants, etc 628 1,044 831 706 583 306 4,098 Transport & communications 134 119 119 54 66 88 580 Banking, finance, business services 1,134 1,473 1,411 1,021 1,439 515 6,993 Public admin, education & health, etc 196 261 308 222 393 126 1,506 Other services 75 78 106 95 83 27 464 TOTALS 2,419 3,259 2,936 2,272 2,775 1,112 14,773 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
21 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Vacancies can also be analysed by Standard Occupational Classification (SOC), which is a useful general indicator of the current skills level demands in the Cumbria labour market, although it must be noted that some occupational vacancies are more likely to be notified via Jobcentres than others. Trends in notified vacancies by SOC over the past 6 months are shown in Table 5.3. The clearest pattern shown in the table is that elementary occupations consistently form the largest portion of aggregate notified vacancies across the County followed by sales & customer service and skilled trades. The senior management and professional occupations provide the smallest proportion, although this category is influenced by the way in which recruitment for such positions is carried out.
Table 5.3: Trends in notified vacancy numbers by Occupation
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 6 mth Occupation classification 07 07 07 07 07 08 Total Managers & Senior Officials 90 105 161 82 86 43 567 Professional 48 84 109 40 79 24 384 Associate Professional & Technical 137 345 181 242 276 134 1,315 Administrative & Secretarial 151 238 200 172 294 135 1,190 Skilled Trades 477 396 293 342 483 144 2,135 Personal Service 121 159 160 152 145 90 827 Sales & Customer Service 408 703 392 380 234 181 2,298 Process, Plant & Machine Operatives 269 308 302 184 383 75 1,521 Elementary Occupations 718 921 1,138 678 795 286 4,536 TOTALS 2,419 3,259 2,936 2,272 2,775 1,112 14,773 Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
Vacancy data may also be examined in conjunction with earlier data on claimant counts (Section 4) and a rough ‘claimant to vacancy ratio’ calculated. This exercise is undertaken using data for Travel to Work Areas as they best equate to local labour markets and uses the number of live unfilled vacancies in a month, together with the number of claimants. Whilst acknowledging that this rudimentary methodology has limitations, it nevertheless highlights areas that appear to have tighter labour markets than others. Table 5.4 shows the claimant to live vacancy ratio for each TTWA in January 2008. A claimant/vacancy figure of more than 1 means that there are more claimants than live vacancies.
In Jan 2008 Whitehaven had the highest ratio at 9.4 claimants per vacancy which is due to a particularly low number of live vacancies that month. Only Windermere had a ratio below 1. Overall in Cumbria there are almost 3 claimants for each live vacancy.
Table 5.4: Claimant Count / Vacancy ratio for Cumbria and TTWAs – Jan 2008 TTWA Claimant count Live vacancies Claimant/ vacancy ratio
Appleby 44 8 5.5 Barrow-in- Furness 1,253 521 2.4 Carlisle 1,220 418 2.9 Kendal 196 199 1.0 Keswick 41 40 1.0 Penrith 155 158 1.0 Whitehaven 1,046 111 9.4 Windermere 46 125 0.4 Workington 989 202 4.9 Cumbria 5,009 1,786 2.8 Source: calculations from data from Office for National Statistics via NOMIS
22 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
SECTION 6 CUMBRIA ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2008: A SUMMARY
Background
The Cumbria Economic Intelligence Partnership has undertaken economic assessments of Cumbria’s economy and labour market for over 10 years. The latest Economic Assessment, published in March 2008, describes the economic structure and processes of Cumbria and counts its outputs. It also considers how wealth is distributed in the County and what changes the economy is undergoing and needs to undergo in order to build local competitiveness. To some degree the report attempts to reflect the potential costs of economic growth on facets of Cumbrian life which the people of the County value.
The Economic Assessment draws on four main information sources:
i. A wide range of local, regional and national statistics. ii. A variety of policy or strategy documents, mainly deriving from local government and other government agencies active in Cumbria’s economic development. iii. A large telephone survey of two thousand businesses of all sizes and sectors in Cumbria which was conducted in the summer of 2007 in tandem with the preparation of this document. This survey reveals insights into business behaviours and attitudes in Cumbria – intelligence which comes directly from the collective accounts of Cumbria’s business managers and which is not available from any other source. iv. To assist this assessment, more detailed face-to-face discussions were held with the senior managers of around twenty larger businesses and public organisations in Cumbria. These discussions looked not only at the businesses’ current competitiveness and business prospects but at the costs and benefits of operating in Cumbria and at the future challenges which they and Cumbria face.
Previous Economic Assessments of Cumbria have tended to concentrate on the first two of the information sources noted above. The latest document differs in that the latter sources are integral to its analysis and conclusions. The survey and face-to-face discussions add a valuable filter that facilitates additional interpretation of the raw statistics on the state of Cumbria’s economy and labour market.
In this chapter, we will summarise two key pieces of analysis covered in the Assessment: employment and economic output in Cumbria. These particular topics were chosen for coverage here because the key data sources on which they are based (namely the Annual Business Inquiry 2006 and Gross Value Added 2005, respectively) were both released in December 2007 and have, therefore, not been reported in an earlier Economic Bulletin. The chapter will conclude with a summary of the key findings outlined in the Economic Assessment. The full Economic Assessment also speculates on the underlying controls on the County’s economy, assesses threats to future growth and identifies how the County might respond to these challenges. A copy of the full document, along with data summaries of both the latest ABI and GVA data, can be found here: http://www.cumbria.gov.uk/factsandfigures/economy/economy.asp
23 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Employment in Cumbria: Annual Business Inquiry 2006
• Employment in Cumbria is weighted (more than nationally) to the manufacturing, construction, and hotels and restaurants sectors. • The County has under-representation in the business services, public administration and defence, and education sectors. • Within the County, the local economies of Cumbria’s districts vary, with Barrow and Copeland having stronger representation in manufacturing and the other Districts having greater shares of employment in the service sector. • Employment rose in Cumbria by 9% between 2002 and 2006. • The overall employment growth rate in Cumbria has exceeded the national growth rate in recent years. • A lesser decline in manufacturing jobs and higher-than-average growth in the construction, hotels and restaurants, and business services sectors account for this comparatively higher growth rate in employment. • Employment grew in all of Cumbria’s districts (except Copeland) over the last few years, with the fastest growth (as a proportion of base employment in 1998) occurring in the southern and eastern parts of the County. • Employment growth was not at the expense of full-time jobs. The proportion of full-time jobs in the County fell by only a fraction. Also, the proportion of jobs held by men increased, though, again, only by a fraction.
Economic Output: Gross Value Added 2005
• An analysis of GVA in Cumbria is hampered by a lack of up-to-date figures with none available for years later than 2005. • It is clear that, between 1995 and 2003, the historic decline of manufacturing in West Cumbria was not compensated for by service sector growth on the scale which occurred in many major cities and counties (particularly southern ones) in the UK over this period. • However, figures for GVA growth in Cumbria in 2003-2004 were quite positive, particularly in East Cumbria. Those for 2004-2005 were a little less positive, due to a weak growth rate in West Cumbria. East Cumbria continued to grow at a faster rate than the national average. • These latter figures are consistent with the positive, faster-than-average trend in local employment in the period between 2002 and 2006 which was noted above. • Whilst the picture is not yet wholly convincing, it may be that, other things being equal, Cumbria’s relative decline has been slowed if not quite halted and there may now be a basis on which to re-build some of Cumbria’s lost position in wealth creation.
Cumbria Economic Assessment 2008: summary of key findings
• The last Economic Assessment of Cumbria, in 2004, painted a fairly gloomy picture. Cumbria’s rate of output growth had been falling behind the national average for several years and the document saw no obvious way out of this situation. • Now the picture looks distinctly different. While the provision of land and premises for business development still does not look wholly satisfactory, employment in Cumbria has grown strongly over the last half-decade, more strongly than the average for England and Wales. All Districts have seen some growth and the increase has not been at the expense of a shift from full-time to part-time work.
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• Accompanying the rise in employment, there has been a matching rise in business formation in the County to the extent that the rate of growth in the number of businesses has, overall, nearly matched the national rate. Self-employment too, remains relatively strong in the County. • These changes have been paralleled by a change in fortune in respect of local output. Whilst Cumbria’s rate of GVA growth had been below the national average since the mid-1990s, in 2004 Cumbria’s growth rate marginally exceeded the national growth rate. In 2005, the figures were a little weaker but East Cumbria retained some advantage over the national growth rate (whilst West Cumbria fell back). • Changes in Cumbria’s population and workforce accompanied economic change. From 2001 the population grew, with an upswing in the numbers of people of working age (generating, perhaps, 3,000-4,000 extra workers). The number of inactive people also fell sharply, by about 15,000 people between 2002 and 2006. • However, though additional workforce numbers enabled employment growth, there remains a substantial gap between the number of Cumbria’s employed / self-employed residents and the number of jobs and self-employment opportunities in the County – with around 22,000 more of the latter than the former. This gap is filled by a mix of migrant and contract staff, students and in- commuters, and people who take more than one job. • The nature of employment has also changed in recent years, with a loss of lower skilled jobs and increases in higher skilled ones. This change was accompanied by a parallel increase in the qualification stock in the workforce – many more economically active people in Cumbria had higher qualification levels in 2006 than they did in 2002. Though Cumbria still had fewer graduates in its workforce than was the average nationally, the gap was closing; and at all other qualification levels, Cumbria held the advantage. • Other indicators of relatively strong local growth derive from statistics on wages and house prices. Between 2001 and 2007 Cumbria’s average wage, though remaining lower than the national average, rose at a faster rate than was average for England. House prices are also lower than the national average in Cumbria, despite high prices in Cumbria’s most attractive locations. However, whilst the rate of house price growth in Cumbria was lower than the national average in the years before 2003, in 2003/2004 this relationship turned around, and since then, Cumbria’s house prices have grown faster than the national average rate.
25 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
SECTION 7 The Spatial Interaction of Housing and Labour Markets: the Case of Cumbria (Guest author, Stephen Hincks, Centre for Urban Policy Studies, University of Manchester)
Introduction
Recent planning policy in Britain has been preoccupied with the issue of over-heated housing markets and the lack of affordable homes, and the problem of vacant dwellings and declining neighbourhoods 7. Research has shown that both these extremes are prevalent in Cumbria 8. The west coast of Cumbria has experienced extensive economic restructuring since the 1980s which has contributed to the emergence of areas of low demand as well as areas of deprivation (e.g. Barrow, Whitehaven and Workington). In contrast, other parts of Cumbria, notably areas within and surrounding the Lake District National Park experience problems arising from high demand for housing and affordability issues (e.g. Windermere and Keswick).
Over the last decade, national government has placed increasing emphasis on the need for policy to be embedded within a strong ‘evidence base’ 9. Ironically, in spite of the recognition of the need to improve our understanding of the links between residential and workplace locations, there is a real lack of intelligence on the interaction of housing and labour markets. In order to gain a better understanding of this issue, this short briefing considers the process of the spatial interaction of housing and labour markets (in the form of commuting) at the sub-regional level in Cumbria.
Sub-Regional Housing and Labour Markets in Cumbria
In order to analyse the spatial interaction of housing and labour markets, it is first necessary to identify the markets. This exercise was undertaken as part of a wider regional level study into housing and labour market interaction funded by the North West Development Agency. The housing market area (HMA) and travel-to-work area (TTWA) approaches were adopted as the housing and labour market frameworks, respectively. At the time of the research, the 2001 TTWAs had not been released 10 which meant that the 1991 TTWAs were used in the study. Of the 23 1991-based TTWAs in the North West, 9 are located in Cumbria. In contrast, a set of HMAs had not been identified for the North West largely because at the time of the research the approach was only just emerging from government policy in England 11 . As a result, a major part of the research was to identify sub-regional HMAs in the North West.
HMAs were defined using the statistical analysis of migration data from the 2001 census as well as being informed through practical knowledge of housing markets gathered from estate agents across the region 12 . The exercise identified 25 HMAs in the North West, 6 of which are located in Cumbria. The HMAs and TTWAs used in this briefing are provided in map form in the Appendix.
7 E.g. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) (2003) “Sustainable Communities; Building for the future,” London, ODPM. 8 Leather, P., Lee, P. and Ferrari, E. (2003) “Changing Housing Markets in Cheshire, Cumbria and Lancashire”. CURS, University of Birmingham, Birmingham. 9 E.g. Cabinet Office (1999) “Modernising Government,” White Paper. HMSO, London. 10 The updated TTWAs were realised at the end of 2007 following a redefinition exercise by CURDS at Newcastle University. 11 E.g. ODPM (2005) “Planning Policy Statement 3: Housing,” London, ODPM. 12 For further information please contact the author ([email protected]).
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The Spatial Interaction of Housing and Labour Markets in Cumbria
The analysis of the spatial interaction of the housing and labour markets draws on origin and destination commuting data from the 2001 Census of Population 13 which is aggregated from ward level to sub-regional. This created a 25 by 23 origin-destination matrix of commuting 14 . Using this data, the analysis explores the volume of commuting at sub-regional level, the patterns of commuting between the identified housing and labour markets, and the distance travelled to work in Cumbria.
The Volume of Commuting at Sub-Regional Level
According to the 2001 Census of Population, commuting from HMAs (origins) in Cumbria averaged 35,684 workers per HMA compared to a regional average of 112,282 workers. Likewise, commuting into TTWAs (destinations) averaged 23,523 per TTWA compared to a regional average of 121,912 workers. The higher regional averages obviously reflect the concentrations of both working population and employment opportunities across the urban-industrial belt (M62 Corridor). Tables 7.1 and 7.2 show the variation in the concentration of commuting within Cumbria. As a proportion of all commuting from HMAs in Cumbria, Carlisle accounts for the highest level (21%) whilst Eden accounts for the lowest level (11.9%).
Table 7.1: Commuting from HMAs in Cumbria
Commuting from HMAs in Cumbria as a % of Total % of Total Commuting from Total Outgoing Commuting from HMAs in the North HMA Commuters HMAs in Cumbria West Carlisle 44,950 21.0 1.6 South Lakeland 38,948 18.2 1.4 Workington 37,624 17.6 1.3 Barrow-in-Furness and Ulverston 34,825 16.3 1.2 Whitehaven 32,257 15.1 1.2 Eden 25,498 11.9 0.9 Total 214,102 100.0 7.6
Table 7.2: Commuting into TTWAs in Cumbria
Commuting to TTWAs in Cumbria as a % of Total % of Total Commuting to Total Incoming Commuting to TTWAs in the North TTWA Commuting TTWAs in Cumbria West Carlisle 53,270 25.2 1.9 Barrow-in-Furness 35,714 16.9 1.3 Whitehaven 30,010 14.2 1.1 Workington 27,873 13.2 1.0 Kendal 26,268 12.4 0.9 Penrith 16,924 8.0 0.6 Windermere 11,187 5.3 0.4 Appleby 5,550 2.6 0.2 Keswick 4,910 2.3 0.2 Total 211,706 100.0 7.6
13 The census records the origin and destination of commuters between their dominant place of work and their usual residential location. The data is released at three scales: local authorities, wards, and output areas. In 1991, to ensure confidentiality only a 10 per cent sample of commuting data was released. However, the adoption of a process known as ‘small cell adjustment methodology’ or SCAM in 2001 meant that counts of either 1 or 2 were given a new value of 0 or 3 which was designed to ensure confidentiality but also allowed a complete Census of commuting to be released. 14 The origin-destination matrix is made-up of the 25 HMAs and 23 TTWAs.
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The variability is even more marked when looking at the proportion of all commuting into TTWAs in Cumbria with Carlisle accounting for the highest inflow (25%) and Keswick the lowest inflow (2%).
Patterns of Commuting between Sub-Regional Housing Markets in Cumbria
The aggregated commuting flows provide a starting point for the analysis. However, in order to understand the complexity of housing and labour market interaction in Cumbria, further analysis of the nature of the commuting flows is needed. The flows recorded in the 25 by 23 origin-destination matrix show that in the North West as a whole, 82 per cent of flows (334 of 405 15 ) have less than 3,640 commuters. This contrasts significantly with the 3 per cent of flows (15 of 405) that have more than 59,000 commuters. This illustrates the diversity of commuting patterns in the region, with a large number of comparatively low magnitude flows and a low number of high magnitude flows.
The patterns of commuting in Cumbria can be separated into categories depending on the numbers of commuters involved in each origin-destination. There are some flows that involve large numbers of people (first order flows) and below these second and third order movements involving progressively fewer people. This “flow standardisation method” has been applied to data for Cumbria and then visualised using a GIS flow data modelling technique 16 .
Figure 7.1 demonstrates that the dominant flows into each of the TTWAs in Cumbria originate from the neighbouring HMAs. To a certain extent, this is expected because of the constraint built into the TTWA framework which requires a high level of internal commuting for an area to be accepted as a TTWA. In relation to TTWAs in Cumbria, four-fifths of incoming commuters originated in their respective geographically coincident HMAs compared with a value of just over two-thirds (68 per cent) for the region as a whole. As might be expected given geographical constraints, this suggests a more self-contained pattern of commuting in Cumbria compared to the region overall.
15 In total, 405 flows had 10 or more recorded commuters between the HMAs and TTWAs in the North West. 16 This technique involves the use of ArcGIS 9.0 plus the Flow Data Model Tool developed at the University of California.
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Figure 7.1: First Order Commuting Flows in Cumbria
For the region as a whole, there are also quite significant second order flows involving around 26 per cent of total regional commuters. However, there is relatively strong interaction between the housing and labour markets located in the same sub-region. For example, of all second order flows in the urban-industrial belt, over two-thirds originate in housing markets located in the belt. However, this trend is even more marked in Cumbria where nine-tenths of second order commuters live in the same sub- region (Figure 7.2).
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Figure 7.2: Second Order Commuting Flows in Cumbria
An interesting trend which emerged from the analysis is that with the exception of connections between the Lancaster & Morecambe HMA and the Kendal and Windermere TTWAs and between the South Lakeland HMA and Lancaster & Morecambe TTWA, there are very few established commuting connections between Cumbria and the rest of the North West region. Taking the first and second order flows together (which constitutes 94 per cent of total commuting flows), the findings point to the fact that the northern and southern parts of the region are fairly highly self-contained and disconnected areas. In terms of the third order flows, these tend to involve small numbers of people that connect more distant housing and labour markets.
Distance Travelled to Work
In order to have a more complete picture of the characteristics of the commuting patterns, this section examines the journey to work distance. The 2001 Census ward
30 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008 level data 17 were aggregated to give a measure of the average journey to work distance for the resident population of the HMAs in Cumbria (Table 7.3), as well as the distance for the workplace population of the TTWAs in the County (Table 7.4) 18 . The majority of commuting trips, both for residential and workplace ends, are of relatively short distance across the North West as a whole. About 46% of commuting journeys are under 5 km in length for resident and workplace population, 24% less than 2 km in length from HMAs, and about 26% of commuting to the TTWAs is under 2 km. In addition, just 27% of commuting is over 10 km in length from the residency end and about 24% at the workplace end.
Table 7.3: Work Trip Lengths of Resident Population of North West HMAs (%)
10km 30km 2km 5km to to 20km to 40km Less to less less less to less less to less 60km than than than than than than than and 2km 5km 10km 20km 30km 40km 60km over HMA Name (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Workington 28.5 12.5 10.5 16.7 11.3 3.8 2.6 2.6 Whitehaven 21.1 15.7 17.4 24.8 4.0 1.0 2.4 3.0 Carlisle 32.3 28.9 10.9 8.7 2.7 1.4 1.3 3.6 Barrow-in-Furness and Ulverston 35.9 26.1 12.8 7.6 2.3 2.8 1.2 3.6 Eden 26.8 8.9 13.5 14.3 7.4 3.4 2.4 3.8 South Lakeland 31.1 12.6 10.4 14.9 4.9 2.6 1.9 5.0 Regional Average (%) 23.9 21.8 17.9 14.8 5.4 2.3 1.7 2.5 Notes: Bold values are exceeding the regional average for the associated column Source: 2001 Census
Table 7.4: Work Trip Lengths of Workplace Populations of North West TTWAs (%)
2km to 5km to 10km 20km 30km 40km Less less less to less to less to less to less 60km than than than than than than than and 2km 5km 10km 20km 30km 40km 60km over TTWA Name (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Appleby 24.6 9.0 9.5 11.7 4.7 1.5 2.0 1.8 Barrow-in-Furness 35.6 24.9 12.5 9.0 1.8 1.0 0.7 2.9 Carlisle 28.5 24.5 11.2 11.1 4.2 2.0 2.0 3.0 Kendal 31.9 14.0 8.9 12.8 5.7 3.3 1.3 2.4 Keswick 32.8 5.2 7.5 11.0 10.5 2.5 1.0 2.6 Penrith 28.2 7.1 11.9 14.1 7.0 4.9 3.3 2.7 Whitehaven 19.7 14.9 13.9 22.9 10.0 3.7 1.9 2.7 Windermere 27.9 8.0 11.7 16.6 7.1 3.2 1.3 2.3 Workington 28.5 16.4 15.3 15.6 3.2 1.2 1.9 1.8 Regional Average (%) 25.5 20.0 15.7 13.0 5.0 2.2 1.5 1.8 Notes: Bold values are exceeding the regional average for the associated column Source: 2001 Census
The 2001 Census data shows that the majority of journeys in the North West, both at the home and workplace ends, tend to be short to medium length journeys of between 2 and 20 km which is also the case in Cumbria. In contrast, longer distance commuting of 20 km or more tends to be under-represented across the region. The exceptions to
17 The 2001 Census provides data related to the distance travelled to work in distance bands, with the lowest band recording work trips less than 2 km in length and the highest distance band of over 60 km in length. The distances are calculated from the residential postcode centroid to the workplace postcode centroid through a straight-line. 18 It is important to note that the regional averages do not sum to 100% because people working from home are not included in the analysis.
31 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008 this are the housing and labour markets in Cumbria which are well represented in longer distance commuting bands (i.e. over 30 km in length). This is likely to reflect the fact that some residents in Cumbria will need to travel greater distances to access employment opportunities. Some residents may also have chosen to reside in an environment that attracts them and accept longer distance commuting to enjoy such amenity. In fact, all HMAs and TTWAs in Cumbria have above average levels of very long distance commuting (over 60 km in length).
Conclusions: Implications for Cumbria
This analysis of commuting patterns in Cumbria tend to confirm spatially coincident housing and labour market areas. This suggests that at the sub-regional level in Cumbria, there continues to be a high degree of home to work trip self-containment, and as such, the data appears to justify housing and labour market policy interventions at a sub-regional scale. However, the analysis also shows that there is longer-distance commuting in Cumbria some of which connects the County with workplaces elsewhere. This raises issues over the prospect of developing strategies to enhance increased north-south connection within the region and also to increase commuting interactions between different parts of Cumbria. This poses many complex questions about the desirability of different types of commuting behaviour in terms of the sustainability agenda, access to employment and the role that out-commuting may play in achieving sustainable communities across the County.
32 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
Appendix Map of Housing Market Areas in Cumbria
Source: Author Map of Travel-to-Work Areas in Cumbria
Source: UK Borders
33 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
SECTION 8 TRENDS IN LOGISTICS IN CUMBRIA: EMPLOYMENT, SKILLS AND COMPETITIVENESS
This section draws on the findings of research conducted by the Centre for Regional Economic Development, University of Cumbria on the impacts of trends in logistics on the demand for skills and training within logistics companies in the Northwest and in Cumbria. Using in depth interviews and literature reviews, the study assesses the impact of current trends on skills and training requirements of logistics companies within the region. The interviews involved logistics companies and other industry experts. with a strong presence in the Northwest region.
It is important at the outset of this section to be clear on definitions of terms, in particular the distinction between “logistics sector” and “logistics management” (often referred to as supply chain management). Lambert et al 19 have defined logistics management as “the process of planning, implementing and controlling, effective flow and storage of goods, services, and related information from point of origin to point of consumption for the purpose of conforming to customer requirements.” Under this definition, logistics management covers virtually every aspect of the modern business process and would therefore have relevance to any sector or business .
The logistics sector, however, refers largely to those businesses that specialize in the provision of this set of processes on behalf of other firms and often across many sectors, although it may also embrace the logistics divisions or subsidiaries of major firms if these are operated as separate enterprises. So while any business may benefit from improved efficiency or effectiveness in logistics management, firms that specialize in logistics clearly depend fundamentally on skills that are very specific to logistics processes.
In a recent review, Datamonitor 20 identifies three significant trends within the UK logistics sector. First, while there has been an increasing trend towards outsourcing of logistics as a business service, there has not been dramatic expansion in the industry in recent years. Secondly, the industry has a history of fragmentation by region and sector but recent trends indicate a rapid shift towards consolidation and ownership concentration through merger and takeover activity. These trends have been occurring at a national level but also increasingly involve consolidation at continental or even global levels. As a consequence, the industry is experiencing intensified levels of competition and significant cost pressure. Businesses that can lower costs and increase productivity through improvements in business process, application of new technology and increased scale of operations can gain significant advantage over competitors.
In their assessment of the sector, the sector skills council for the industry, Skills for Logistics,21 (SfL) adopts the same Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories as used by the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS). By aggregating these SIC codes, data on trends in employment in specialist providers of logistics can be derived from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) 22 . Figures 8.1 and 8.2 show changes in employment over time at the national and Cumbrian level. In general terms, there has been employment growth overall in the period since 2001 at all spatial scales. Figures for Cumbria, however, show greater variability from year to year as might be expected at smaller spatial scales. Observing the size bands, the National data suggests that employment in firms employing less than 50 workers has remained fairly constant (around 300,000
19 Lambert D M , Stock J R & Ellram L M (1998), “Fundamentals of Logistic management,” McGraw Hill. 20 Datamonitor (2006), “Logistics in the United Kingdom,” May. 21 Skills for Logistics (2005), “Assessment of Current and Future Skills Needs in the Logistics Sector (Stage 1),” Oct.
22 Accessed from the National Online Manpower Information Service (NOMIS).
34 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008 workers) while growth has come mainly from expansion of large firms (over 200 workers) reflecting the trends suggested by Datamonitor.
Figure 8.1: GB Logistics Employees by Firm Size (SIC defined by SfL)
1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1to10 11to49 50to199 200+
Figure 8.2: Cumbria Logistics Employees by Firm Size (SIC defined by SfL)
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1to10 11to49 50to199 200+
Figure 8.3 shows a breakdown of the data for Cumbria by type of function. The most recent data for 2005 shows that employment is highest in freight transport by road followed by cargo handling and courier services. Trends in these sub-sectors broadly reflect changes occurring at national level in that employment in dedicated road haulage businesses has been falling steadily, partly as a consequence of the trend towards national consolidation of firms in this sub-sector. This decline, however, has been more than compensated by growth in other functions including jobs in storage and warehousing associated with the growth of regional distribution centres at national and international scale which are often managed by specialist logistics providers.
There has also been steady growth in employment in cargo handling (perhaps associated with increased imports of goods from global sources including China), as well
35 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008 as expansion in post and courier services. It is likely that these patterns of change will also be correlated with shifts in business size structure. In particular, a reduction of employment in smaller haulage companies may arise as a consequence of consolidation in this sub-sector while there may be an increase in the number of relatively small firms operating in courier services where there are opportunities for businesses to operate in niche markets.
Figure 8.3 Cumbria Logistics by SIC codes
6024 : Freight transport by road 6210 : Scheduled air transport 6220 : Non-scheduled air transport 6311 : Cargo handling 6312 : Storage and warehousing 6323 : Other supporting air transport activities 6340 : Activities of other transport agencies 6411 : National post activities 6412 : Courier activities other than national post activities 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
SfL recognising the shift of the industry from “time driven” to a “service driven” ethos have developed a “Professional Development Stairway” which will help grow the skills within the industry from operator to international chairman 23 . SfL hope that the development of the stairway will help counteract the “vicious circle” 24 they have identified where the poor image of logistics fails to attract or develop management with the required skills that will help the UK logistics sector compete in the highly competitive service side of the global logistics market. This reflects the aims of the government for other industries set out in the Leitch Review 25 and the objectives involved in the formation of National Skills Academies for individual industries by the Learning and Skills Council’s 26 . Since firms working within the logistics sector are so well integrated into their customers supply chains, they tend to be invisible to the outside world and this may be the reason that the sector receives little direct consideration in the Regional Economic Strategies of the English regions. This does not mean that the regions do not appreciate the importance of the sector; prior to 2006 NWDA invested £3.2 million into the Logistics College North West (at the time the largest Centre for Vocational Excellence (COVE) for logistics in England). At a sub regional level logistics has significant operational linkage with the three priority sectors of nuclear, manufacturing
23 www.skillsforlogistics.org 24 Skills for Logistics (2006), “Right Skills, Right Place, Right Time! The logistics sector skills agreement. An assessment of current provision for skills needs in the Logistics Sector.(Stage3),” Skills for Logistics, Jan. 25 Leitch S (2006), “Leitch Review of Skills, Prosperity for all in the global economy - world class skills,” HM Treasury. 26 Learning and Skills Council (2007), “The National Skills Academy Network Prospectus: Third Round,” Learning and Skills Council, Jan.
36 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008 and food and drink identified by Cumbria Vision 27 . Carlisle Renaissance also recognizes the distribution sector as one of the three key sectors for GVA in Carlisle 28 .
The interviews generally confirmed reports that indicated the highly competitive nature of the industry at present. Several managers commented on tight profit margins and pressures to reduce costs in order to remain competitive:
“Profit margins 4 or 5 years ago were 8 to 9% now they are just over 2%...we are driven by the economy…retailers want more for less and there is increasing overseas competition …very difficult to compete with large organisations” ( Logistics Operator )
It was also evident that managers pay close attention to effective communication and good relationships with their key customers in order to retain business:
“Customers could go to our competitors for a cheaper price but they stay with … because we work together” (Regional Logistics Operator)
A key point to emerge from the interviews, however, concerns the significance of improvement in managerial and social skills which are necessary to provide integration between disciplines in the industry (warehouse, haulage, accounts, IT, as well as relations with clients). Interviewees argued that the development of social skills was a key aspect for improving efficiency and competitiveness:
“Pretty good on the technical side and time management, the problems are social skills and problem solving-these are the weak areas.” (Regional Logistics Operator)
“We lack social skills there is a big gap…a huge gap …hard faced management style…it’s the nature of the business…cost focused… managers know financial details but do not have leadership skills. ” (Logistics Operator)
Tight margins however limit training resources:
“Money is so tight that managers can’t see the investment in developing staff on half day courses…where is the value here and now…they don’t see advantages in terms of 6 months or a year ahead.” (Regional Logistics Operator)
For logistics management training to be effective it must be closely linked to the needs of the sector:
“…develop close relationship with the industry…Experts, experience and close relationships…must relate to real life…it’s a macho business.” (Logistics Magazine Editor)
27 Cumbria Vision (2007), “Cumbria Economic Plan: Third Consultation Draft,” Aug. 28 Carlisle Renaissance (2006), Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy SWOT Analysis.
37 Cumbria Economic Bulletin March 2008
APPENDIX MAP OF CUMBRIA TRAVEL-TO-WORK AREAS
38