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Home , Population growth

Global at a Glance:

2002 and Beyond Issued March 2004 International Brief WP/02-1

At the dawn of the new millennium, of these trends through 2050. The material International global population continues to discussed here, as well as demographic sta- Population increase rapidly … tistics for every country of the , come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Global Reports … even though both the global rate Population Profile: 2002. of growth and net additions each year are decreasing, Global Population Growth … even though AIDS is devastating the of a number of According to U.S. Census Bureau esti- African countries, mates, hit the 6-billion mark in June 1999. This figure is over …even though 88 countries now 3.5 times the size of the earth’s popula- have levels lower than those tion at the beginning of the required for replacement of their and roughly double its size in 1960. The populations in the long run. time required for global population to This brief highlights several of the most grow from 5 to 6 billion — 12 years — important global population trends in 2002 was shorter than the interval between and describes the continuation and impacts any of the previous billions.

Figure 1. Annual Additions and the Annual Growth Rate of Global Population The growth of global population has peaked.

Population in billions Total world population 10 2048 9

8 2028 2013 7 1999 6 20 years 1987 15 5 years 1974 14 4 years 12 1959 3 years 13 1922 years 2 15 years 1804 1 37 years 118 years 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Source: , World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision; U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base and unpublished tables. Demographic Programs

U.S. Department of Commerce U S C E N S U S B U R E A U and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Helping You Make Informed Decisions In 2002, global population stood at 6.2 billion and was growing at Figure 2. 1.2 percent per annum. This is The Components of Yearly equivalent to a net addition of World Population Growth: 2002-2050 about 200,000 people per day, Fertility's contribution to global growth about 74 million people per year, will cease by 2050. and about 371 million people over Fertility effect a 5-year period (or nearly the size Annual average percent growth — Mortality effect of all of Western in 2002). total and contribution of components effect 1.4 However, as Figure 1 indicates, the 1.19 pace of global population increase 1.2 actually peaked some years ago. 1.06 The 74 million people added in 1.0 2002 is a substantially lower incre- 0.88 ment than the high of 87 million 0.8 people added in 1989-90, and the 0.69 growth rate was well below the high 0.6 0.55 of 2.2 percent in 1963-64. Census 0.42 Bureau projections show this slow- 0.4 down in population growth continu- ing into the foreseeable future. 0.2

The slowdown in the growth of the 0 world’s population can be traced primarily to declines in fertility. In -0.2 1990, the world’s women, on aver- 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 age, were giving birth to 3.3 chil- Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data dren over their lifetimes. By 2002, Base and unpublished tables. the average was 2.6 — less than one-half of a more than the level needed to assure the replace- Figure 3. ment of the population. Although Age-Sex Structure of World Population: 2002 and 2050 Global population will change markedly fertility rates in some parts of the over the next 50 years. 2050 world are expected to remain above 2002 replacement level for quite some Male Female time (e.g., in Sub-Saharan ), Age 80+ Census Bureau projections suggest 75-79 that the level of fertility for the 70-74 world as a whole will drop below 65-69 replacement level before 2050. 60-64 55-59 Population momentum 50-54 accounts for much of the 45-49 continued growth of global 40-44 population in 2002 35-39 and beyond. 30-34 25-29 National, regional, and global 20-24 declines in fertility are not projected 15-19 10-14 to translate directly into equivalent 5- 9 declines in the growth of population. 0- 4 The lack of correspondence in fertili- 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 ty and population declines is due to Millions the fact that numbers of women in Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base. their child-bearing years are

2 U.S. Census Bureau population, on the other hand, is Figure 4. projected to grow considerably in Population Growth of Specific Age Groups: both absolute and relative terms 2002 to 2050 (Figure 4). The elderly are project- The elderly population is projected ed to be more than three times as to grow most rapidly. many in 2050 as today, and to comprise nearly 17 percent of Population in billions 10 global population, compared with 7 percent in 2002. 9 65 years of How fast global population 8 age and older grows over the next five decades will be determined in 7 part by two factors that are relatively difficult to forecast. 6 30-64 These are the pace of fertility years of age 5 decline in parts of the developing world and the 4 future course taken by the AIDS . 3 15-29 CONTRACEPTIVE years of age 2 PREVALENCE IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD 1 0-14 years of age High fertility remains the dominant 0 factor dictating the future size, 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 growth, and composition of the Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base. populations of many developing nations. Contraceptive use, in turn, is one of the primary deter- increasing both in absolute terms outnumbered all other age groups minants of the level of fertility in a and relative to the rest of the popu- in 2002, with each successively population and of differences in lation (as a result of past, higher fer- higher age group being slightly fertility between populations. tility), an effect that demographers smaller (Figure 3). Children made Contraceptive use is also important refer to as “population momentum.” up just under 30 percent of the as an indicator of the extent to The increase in the ratio of women world’s population. which couples have access to of reproductive age to total popula- reproductive services. Over the next five decades, the tion was responsible for about three- absolute number of children is Though contraceptive prevalence fourths of global population growth expected to remain relatively sta- has risen dramatically since the in 2002. Census Bureau projections ble, but their number relative to 1960s, there are at least 100 mil- suggest that by 2050, virtually all of total global population is expected lion women in the world’s the growth of the globe’s population to decline to 20 percent. The num- developing countries today who will be due to this age-sex composi- ber of women in their childbearing would like to space or limit their tion effect (Figure 2). years is expected to increase by pregnancies but are not using GLOBAL POPULATION more than 25 percent between contraception. These women, con- COMPOSITION 2002 and 2050; however, their sidered to have “unmet need for proportion of total population ,” are found in The transition to lower fertility slowly decreases (from 26 percent greater numbers in than in and mortality accounts for the to 23 percent). The population of other world regions but make up aging of global population now labor force age is expected to higher proportions of the popula- and during the coming 50 years. grow steadily while its proportion tions of Sub-Saharan African coun- Largely as a result of past, higher of the total stays approximately tries than of countries in other fertility, children (ages 0-14) the same. The world’s elderly parts of the world.

U.S. Census Bureau 3 THE AIDS PANDEMIC IN ST THE 21 CENTURY Figure 5. Since the beginning of the AIDS Adult HIV Prevalence in Africa: December 2001 pandemic two decades ago, more A dozen Sub-Saharan African countries now than 20 million people have died have HIV infection rates in excess of 10 percent of AIDS. Twice that many — 40 of the adult population ages 15-49. million — are now living with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. Barring some major breakthrough, most of these people are expected to die during the next 10 years or so.

The pandemic continues to have its greatest impact in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, and , with Sub-Saharan Africa at its epicenter. The latest estimates released by UNAIDS and the World Health Organization show infection rates among the adult population exceed 35 percent in Botswana and 10 percent in eleven other countries Percent seropositive in Sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 5). As Under 1 a result of AIDS mortality, Census 1 to 4 Bureau projections indicate that a 5 to 9 10 to 19 number of African countries will 20 and over experience levels of mortality Not available during this decade that will bring the average life expectancy at birth down to around 30 years by 2010, levels not seen since the beginning of the 20th century. Source: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and the World Health

Organization, Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic July 2002. Consequently, some of these coun- tries are expected to begin to experi- ence before 2010. Moreover, AIDS mortality is likely to , have managed to stem the analyzes population and related produce age-sex distributions that tide of the pandemic. These exam- statistical information from all have never been seen before. ples give hope that the AIDS pan- countries. Based on these data, demic can be successfully curtailed IPC produces demographic esti- The news is not all bad, in other countries. mates and projections used in however. Global Population Profile: 2002 While child mortality rates in 2010 MORE INFORMATION and other reports. Additional information is available from the are expected to be much higher Global Population Profile: 2002. International Programs Center, with AIDS than they would have Report WP/02. Washington, DC: Population Division, U.S. Census been without AIDS, if prevention of U.S. Government Printing Office. mother-to-child transmission pro- Bureau, Washington, DC. grams are dramatically scaled up, This report may be found on the 20233-8860. (Internet site: then the course of future child Internet at www/census.gov www.census.gov/ipc/www mortality rates can be changed. /ipc/www/wp02.html. /index.html; e-mail: [email protected]). Moreover, several countries, The International Programs Center including , , and (IPC) collects, assesses, and

4 U.S. Census Bureau