International VAT Harmonization: Macroeconomic Effects
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MF SrqffPapers I 4 (December 1991) Vol 38, No. © 1991 lmcrnauonal Monetary Fund International VAT Harmonization Macroeconomic Effects JACOB A. FRENKEL. ASSAF RAZIN. and STEYEN SYMANSKY* Macroeconomic issues pertinent to the international and domestic effe cts of international VA T harmonization are highlighted, and VA T harmoniza tion policies envisaged for Europe in 1992 are outlined. An intertemporal model is developed to analyze the incentive effects of various tax policies and their welfare implications. Dynamic simulations reveal that the macroeconomic and welfare implications of VA T harmonization depend critically on the tax system and the degree of substitution governing tempo ral and intertemporal allocations of savings, investment, and tabor. The simulations also reveal a potential for significant conflictsof interest within each country and between countries. [JEL E2, E6, F4] COORDINATION of fiscal policy in general, and tax policy in partic ular,HE poses a major challenge in the move toward the single market Tin Europe slated for 1992. With the growing integration of markets for • Jacob A. Frenkel, Governor of the Bank of Israel, is also Professor of Economics at Tel Aviv University and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department when this paper was written. He is a graduate of Hebrew University and the University of Chicago. Assaf Razin, Daniel and Grace Ross Professor of International Economics at Tel Aviv University and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Eco nomic Research, is a graduate of the Hebrew University and the University of Chicago. He was a Visiting Scholar in the Research Department when this paper was written. Steven Symansky is Deputy Division Chief of the External Adjustment Divi sion of the Research Department. He is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin. The authors are grateful to A. Lans Bovenberg, David Bradford, Martin Fe ldstein, Peter Isard, Bennett McCallum, and Pat Kehoe for useful discussions, and Ravina Malkani for research assistance. 789 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 790 FRENKEL • RAZIN • SYMANSKY goods and services within the European Community (EC), the harmo nization of value-added taxes (VAT) has become a central issue in the discussion of fiscal policy convergence. VAT harmonization is seen as a means of recouping some of the revenues that have been lost in cross-border arbitrage. Also, in countries with high tax rates, the industrial sectors have been agitating for lower tax rates, which could help restore competitiveness and maintain market shares. In addition, in parallel with the integration of the goods and services market, the growing integration of capital markets has made the tax base associated with internationally mobile capital highly elastic. All of these factors suggest that European economic integration may well entail a significant restructuring of tax systems. Motivated by this background, this paper provides a dynamic analysis of key macro economic issues pertinent to an understanding of the international and domestic effects of VAT harmonization. In Section I we outline the VAT harmonization policies envisaged for Europe of 1991. In Section II we present the basic tax model. It is a neoclassical model with a microeconomic foundation and is therefore suitable for an analysis of the incentive effects of various tax policies and their welfare implications. The model allows for a rich tax structure and contains a detailed specification of public and private sector behavior. The analytical framework employs the saving-investment approach to analyzing international economic interdependence. It thus emphasizes the effects of changes in the time profile of various taxes on the inter temporal allocations of savings, investment, and tabor. These dynamic effects are supplemented by the more conventional effects of the level of flat-rate taxes on the margins governing the choice between tabor and leisure (such as the negative effect of consumption and income taxes on tabor supply), the choice between consumption and saving (such as the negative double-taxation effect of income tax on saving), and the choice of investment plans (such as the negative effect of the corporate income tax on investment). Our formulation focuses on the roles played by the level and time profile of taxes on income (wage and capital income tax), investment and saving incentives (investment and savings tax credit), taxes on consumption (VAT), and on international borrowing. In Section Ill we apply the tax model of Section II to examine the effects of international VAT harmonization. Throughout the analysis, the tax restructuring is constrained by the requirement that government solvency is maintained. Accordingly, changes in VAT rates are accompa nied by compensatory changes in other taxes. The effects of VAT harmo nization are illustrated by means of dynamic simulations. The simutations reveal that the effects of these tax changes on domestic and foreign levels ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution INTERNATIONAL VAT HARMONIZATION 791 of output, employment, investment. consumption, and other key macroeconomic variables depend critically on the degree of substitution governing temporal and intertemporal allocations, as well as on the tax system. Furthermore, it is shown that these characteristics of the eco nomic system also govern the precise welfare implications of VAT harmo nization. We show that VAT harmonization policy may generate signif icant conflicts of interest within each country as well as between countries. In Section IV we analyze the dynamic mechanism associated with changes in the time profile of taxes. Since VAT harmonization involves changes in the composition of taxes, we examine the dynamic conse quences of revenue-neutral tax conversions between income and con sumption (VAT) tax systems undertaken by a single country. The rev enue-neutrality requirement is motivated by inflationary fears or debt aversion. Reflecting our emphasis on the saving-investment balance, we demonstrate analytically that the effects of such changes in the composi tion of taxes depend critically on international differences in saving and investment propensities, which in turn govern the time profile of the current account of the balance of payments. These issues are examined by means of dynamic simulations in Section V, in which the role of current imbalances in global tax restructuring is analyzed. Concluding remarks are contained in Section Vl. I. VAT Harmonization: Europe 1992 The VAT harmonization policies envisaged for 1992 have long been an important component of the wide-ranging measures associated with the move toward the single European market. The process of harmonization started with the First Council Directive of April 1967 and has continued through various succeeding directives. The process has involved the adoption of VAT and the continuous convergence of rates and structures among members of the Community. Over the years, the Commission of the EC has drawn up various proposals for the approximation of VAT rates and the harmonization of its structure. Much of the discussion on the practical implementation of the approximation of VAT rates has concerned the position and width of bands within which various VAT rates should be placed, the products to which a reduced rate would be applicable, and the problem of zero-rated products.1 1 Zero-rated products involve the reimbursement oftaxes levied on inputs, with the result that the final good is completely untaxed. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 1. VA T Rates in the European Community -..1 Table \0 (In percent) N Revenue Contribution ( 1990) Statutory Rates Percentage of total Percentage of Country• Reduced rate Standard rate Higher rate tax revenue (1987) GDP (1987) Belgium (1971) 1.0, 6.0, 7.0 19.0 25.0, 33.0 16.3 7.2 Denmark (1967) 0.0 22.0 26.9 9.8 (1968) 5.5, 7.0 18.6 25.0 20.0 8.7 France ., Germany (1968) 7.0 14.0b 13.1 3.8 ;:o rn (1987) 3.0, 6.0 16.0 36.0 20.9 7.8 z Greece rn;<; Ireland (1972) 0.0, 2.2, 10.0 23.0 18.9 8.0 Italy (1973) 2.0, 9.0 18.0 38.0 13.1 4.7 r (1970) 3.0, 6.0 12.0 13.3 6.0 ;:o Luxembourg >- Netherlands (1969) 6.0 18.5 15.2 7.9 N z Portugal (1986) 8.0 17.0 30.0 18.8 7.7 . V> Spain (1986) 6.0 12.0 33.0 16.0 5.3 -< United Kingdom (1973) 0.0 17S 16.3 6.0 3:: >- z Memorandum items: V> ;<; EC Commission proposal -< A 4.0 to 9.0 14.0 to 20.0 abolished B 4.0 to 9.0 15 minimum abolished (1987, 2.1); European Economy 1988, 3.5.1); Sources: Cnossen and Shoup Table (March Table Commission of the European Community, "The Evolution of VAT Rates Applicable in the Member States of the Community," Inter-tax (1987 /3), 85-88: International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation, Tax News Service (various issues); International Monetary Fund (1989):pp. and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( 1989). "Year of VAT introduction in parentheses. bThe rate will increase to 15 percent in 1993. <The rate was changed from 15 percent to 17.5 percent in 1991. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution INTERNATIONAL VAT HARMONIZATION 793 For 1992 the Commission initially proposed a standard VAT rate ranging between 14 percent and 20 percent, and a reduced rate (applied to selected categories, such as foodstuffs) ranging between 4 percent and 9 percent. 2 The Cornmission also wanted to abolish the higher rate that presently exists in some member