TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT i ACKNO WLEDGEMENTNS iii TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF FIGURES x LIST OF TABLES xiii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. BACKGROUND 1 1.2. OBJECTIVES 2 1.3. METHODOLOGY 4 1.3.1. Earthquake Hazard 4 1.3.2. Building Inventory 5 1.3.3. Vulnerability Assessment 6

2. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN RISK ASSESSMENT 10 2.1. PROMPT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES FOR RESPONSE .... 10 2.1.1. Earthquake Source 10 2.1.2. Shaking Distribution 11 2.1.3. Loss Modeling 12 2.1.4. Loss Model Summary 15 2.1.5. Earthquake Alerting 15 2.1.6. Building Inventory 16 2.1.7. PAGER limitations 16 2.2. GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL [GEM) 17 2.2.1. GEM Ontology and Taxonomy 17 2.2.2. Global Earthquake Consequences Database 18 2.2.3. Global Exposure Database 18 2.2.4. Global Vulnerability Estimation Methods 18 2.3. SUMMARY 19

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http://d-nb.info/1024832333 Table of Contents

3. DATA LAYERS AND ANALYSIS 22 3.1. EARTHQUAKE HAZARD 22 3.1.1. Introduction 22 3.1.2. Past seismicity 23 3.1.3. The largest earthquakes 25 3.2. BUILDING INVENTORY IN PAKISTAN 28 3.2.1. Statistics 28 3.2.2. Age of the building stock 28 3.2.3. Typical building types 30 3.3. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS 30 3.3.1. Population density 33 3.3.2. Household size 33 3.4. SOIL CLASSIFICATIONS 34 3.4.1. Geology 35 3.4.2. Topography 35 3.4.3. Shear wave velocity 35 3.4.4. Soil types 35 3.5. DISCUSSION 36

4. BUILDING CODE AND SEISMIC ZONING MAPS 37 4.1. BUILDING CODE 37 4.1.1. Building code for Quetta municipality (1937) 37 4.1.2. Building code of Pakistan (1985) 39 4.1.3. Building code of Pakistan (2007) 40 4.2. SEISMIC ZONING MAPS 41 4.2.1. Development of seismic zoning maps 41 4.2.2. Comparison of seismic zoning maps 44 4.3. SUMMARY 46

5. EMPIRICAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 48 5.1. INTRODUCTION 48 5.2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES 48 5.2.1. Damage probability matrices 48 5.2.2. Vulnerability functions 49 5.3. EUROPEAN MACROSEISMIC SCALE -1998 (EMS-98) 49 5.3.1. Factors affecting vulnerability 50 5.4. FIELD SURVEYS IN PAKISTAN 52 5.4.1. Micro level 53 5.4.2. Macro level 56

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5.5. VULNERAB1LTY ASSESSMENT 57 5.5.1. Building type distribution 57 5.5.2. Vulnerability class distribution 60 5.5.3. Mean Vulnerability Index (MVI) 61 5.6. RECONSTRUCTION AFTER 62 5.7. SUMMARY 69

6. VULNERABILITY OF REINFORCED CONCRETE STRUCTURES 71 6.1. INTRODUCTION 71 6.2. VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS 72 6.2.1. Capacity of a building 72 6.2.2. Earthquake demand 72 6.3. ANALYSIS PROCEDURES 73 6.4. PUSH OVER ANALYSIS 74 6.5. STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY OF RC BUILDING IN PAKISTAN 75 6.6. CAPACITY CURVES FROM PUSHOVER ANALYSIS 78 6.7. SUMMARY 78

7. DAMAGE SCENARIOS 80 7.1. SELECTION OF SCENARIOS 80 7.2. METHODOLOGY 81 7.2.1. Identification of building typology 83 7.2.2. Assessment of Vulnerability Classes 83 7.2.3. Selection of scenario earthquakes 83 7.2.4. Damage estimation 83 7.3. OBSERVED DAMAGE IN 85 7.4. OBSERVED DAMAGE IN 2005 KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE 86 7.4.1. Damage to reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures 88 7.4.2. Damage to masonry structures 91 7.5. OBSERVED DAMAGE IN 2008 BALUCHISTAN EARTHQUAKE 93 7.6. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR SELECTED SCENARIOS 98 7.6.1. Micro Level - Muzaffarabad 99 7.6.2. Meso Level - Northern Pakistan 100 7.6.3. Macro Level - South-Western and Northern Pakistan 104 7.7. DISCUSSION 108

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8. SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES-FATALITIES AND INJURIES Ill 8.1. INTRODUCTION Ill 8.2. STATE OF THE ART Ill 8.3. ESTIMATION METHODOLOGIES 115 8.4. FACTORS AFFECTING CASUALTY ESTIMATION 118 8.5. CASUALTY ESTIMATION FOR PAKISTAN 120 8.5.1. Coburn and Spence Casualty Model (CSCM) - 1992 121 8.5.2. Vulnerability-Based Casualty Model (VBCM) 123 8.6. DISCUSSION 132

9. LANDSLIDES 134 9.1. INTRODUCTION 134 9.2. LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT 135 9.2.1. Landslide risk 135 9.2.2. Risk assessment procedure 136 9.2.3. Related difficulties 136 9.3. LANDSLIDE SUCEPTIBILITY ZONATION 138 9.4. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TOWARDS LANDSLIDE HAZARD 138 9.4.1. Topography 138 9.4.2. Geology 140 9.4.3. Land use 140 9.4.4. Climate 141 9.4.5. Human factor 142 9.5. RESULTS 144 9.6. REMEDIAL MEASURES 145 9.7. SUMMARY 146

10. GLOBAL RISK ASSESSMENT: EXTRAPOLATION TO 147 10.1. INTRODUCTION 147 10.2. SEISMICTIY OF INDIA 147 10.2.1. 1988 Bihar earthquake 147 10.2.2. 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake 147 10.2.3. 1993 Killari earthquake 148 10.2.4. 1997 earthquake 148 10.2.5. 1999 Chamoli earthquake 149 10.2.6. 2001 Bhuj earthquake 149 10.3. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS 150 10.4. BUILDING CODE OF INDIA 150 10.5. SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS OF INDIA 152 10.5.1. Seismic hazard map - 1933 Edition 152 10.5.2. Seismic hazard map - 1962 Edition 152 10.5.3. Seismic hazard map - 1966 Edition 153

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10.5.4. Seismic hazard map - 1970 Edition 153 10.5.5. Seismic hazard map - 2002 Edition 153 10.5.6. Seismic hazard map - GSHAP 1999 153 10.6. BUILDING STOCK OF INDIA 155 10.6.1. Mud/adobe structures 155 10.6.2. Rubble stone masonry structures 155 10.6.3. Brick and Concrete Block Masonry structures 155 10.6.4. Reinforced Concrete Frame structures 155 10.6.5. Timber structures 156 10.7. Building vulnerability Assessment 160 10.8. SUMMARY 161

11. SUMMARY AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS 162 11.1. SUMMARY 162 11.1.1. Building code and seismic zoning maps 162 11.1.2. Field surveys 162 11.1.3. Typical building types 163 11.1.4. Empirical Vulnerability Assessment 163 11.1.5. Unknown capacity of reinforced concrete structures 163 11.1.6. Damage scenarios 163 11.1.7. Reconstruction after 2005 Kashmir earthquake 164 11.1.8. Human causality estimation 164 11.1.9. Landslides 164 11.2. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS 165

REFERENCES 166 APPENDIX A: STATISTICAL DATA 177 APPENDIX B: EUROPEAN MACROSEISMIC SCALE -1998 190 APPENDIX C: 2005 KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE - DAMAGES 197 APPENDIX D: 2005 EARTHQUAKE -RECONSTRUCTION 204 APPENDIX E: CAPACITY CURVES 211 APPENDIX F: 2008 BALUCHISTAN EARTHQUAKE-DAMAGES.213 DECLARATION 216 CURRICULAM VITAE 217

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