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Proceedings of the Symposium on Seismology, Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Management held in conjunction with the Fourth General Assembly of the Asian Seismological Commission, 24 - 26 November 2002, Kathmandu Editor Amod Mani Dixit October 2004 Organiser National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET) Co-Organiser Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) Sponsors HMG/Ministry of Science and Technology, Nepal (MOST) International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior (IASPEI) Asian Seismological Commission (ASC) B. P. Koirala India-Nepal Foundation All rights reserved © National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal, October 2004 Editor: Amod Mani Dixit Publisher: National Society for Earthquake Technology Ō Nepal (NSET) 1133 Devkota Sadak Mahadevsthan, Baneshwor P.O. Box: 13775 Kathmandu, Nepal Tel: (977-1) 4474192, 4490359 Fax: (977-1) 4490943 Email: [email protected] URL: www.nset.org.np Graphic Designer: Chandan Dhoj Rana Magar Publication Series: 17 Printed by: FOREWORD Most parts of Asia lie in active seismic zones. In fact two of the three largest earthquakes in the world occurred in Asia during 2003, these earthquakes were also among the 10 deadliest disasters in the world that year. The high level of seismic vulnerability in Asia is largely due to the very high population density, and rapid pace of urbanization. Vulnerability is further exacerbated by unacceptably poor construction practices and processes used for the construction of non-engineered structures as well as poor quality of construction materials. Asia, therefore, needs special attention in terms of disaster risk reduction and emergency response planning and capacity enhancement. The scale of this risk in the Asia Pacific region demands that new and innovative approaches should be developed, internalized, and implemented to combat the problem of disaster risk in the region. Both the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and National Society for Earthquake Technology – Nepal (NSET) realize the challenge, and have developed a successful partnership during the last decade to work in this direction. A history of fruitful collaboration has been established, and efforts in earthquake risk management have occupied a prominent place in this close partnership. Both the institutions see the need to broaden this partnership and create a network in Asia and throughout the world. The organization of the Asian Seismological Commission (ASC) 2002 by both NSET and ADPC in November 2002 in Kathmandu is one of the expressions of such innovative approaches taken by these institutions. While planning for ASC 2002 both institutions wanted to develop this event into an effort to treat earthquake hazard comprehensively: a) The scope of the symposium during ASC 2002 was expanded to include earthquake engineering and earthquake risk management. b) A training program on Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction for Cities (EVRC) was organized for about 30 participants. We are thankful to the Asian Seismological Commission for the opportunity provided to organize the ASC 2002. We also extend our heartfelt thanks to His Majesty's Government of Nepal for sponsoring the project and the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the interior Earth (IASPE) and the B.P. Koirala India Nepal foundation for providing financial support. The International Institute for Geo- Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), the Netherlands extended full cooperation in organizing the training program. ADPC and NSET wish the forthcoming October meeting of the Asian Seismological Commission 2004 in Armenia every success. Mr. Shiva Bahadur Pradhanang Dr. Suvit Yodmani President, NSET Executive Director, ADPC ASC 2002, Sym. On Seis. Eq. Haz. Ass. & Risk Mgmt., 24-26 Nov. 2002, Kathmandu, Nepal i ASC 2002 : Symposium on Seismology, Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Management CONVENER Amod Mani Dixit INTERNATIONAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE Kakharbay Abdullabekov Institute of Seismology of Academy of Science of Uzbekistan Serguei Balassanian Asian Seismological Commission E. Robert Engdahl International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior David Hollister Asian Disaster Preparedness Center Madhav Raj Pandey Department of Mines and Geology Raymundo Punongbayan Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology B. K. Rastogi National Geophysical Research Institute Haresh Shah World Seismic Safety Initiative Wu Zhongliang Chinese Academy of Science Suvit Yodmani Asian Disaster Preparedness Center Zhu Chuanzhen Asian Seismological Commission LOCAL ORGANISING COMMITTEE Shiva Pradhanang (chairman) National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal Ram Hari Aryal National Planning Commission Ramesh K. Aryal Nepal Geological Society Shreeram Singh Basnet Rastriya Samachar Samiti Devendra Nath Gongal Society for Nepalese Architects Narayan Govind Halwai Nepal Engineers’ Association Basanta Kaphle Department of Mines and Geology Mahesh Nakarmi National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal Badan Lal Nyachhyon Multi Disciplinary Consultant (P) Ltd Yogeshwar Parajuli TAEC Consult Jiba Raj Pokharel Institute of Engineering Jyoti P. Pradhan FAC, Kathmandu Office Mukund P. S. Pradhan Institute of Engineering Dayaram Bahadur Shrestha Ministry for Science and Technology Nanda Ram Sthapit Department of Mines and Geology Pratap Singh Tater Nepal Geological Society ii ASC 2002, Sym. On Seis. Eq. Haz. Ass. & Risk Mgmt., 24-26 Nov. 2002, Kathmandu, Nepal TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................................i International Advisory Committee............................................................................................................................ii Local Organising committee .......................................................................................................................................ii TABLE of contents......................................................................................................................................................iii About the Invited Speakers.........................................................................................................................................iv Proceedings.................................................................................................................................................................. VI Title Index.................................................................................................................................................................. 240 Author Index............................................................................................................................................................. 241 ASC 2002, Sym. On Seis. Eq. Haz. Ass. & Risk Mgmt., 24-26 Nov. 2002, Kathmandu, Nepal iii ABOUT THE INVITED SPEAKERS Abdullabekov, Kakharbay N., born in 1942 in Tashkent. He graduated from the Tashkent State Polytechnic Institute with the Diploma of Mountain-Engineer Geophysics in 1963, obtained his Ph.D. in 1972 and Diploma of Dr. of Physics and Mathematics Sciences in 1988, Professor of Geophysics in 1991. From 1968-1988, he worked as a post graduate, junior researcher, senior researcher, and head of laboratory at the Institute of Seismology. Since 1989 he is the Director of the Institute of Seismology of Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan. His main scientific direction – electromagnetic phenomena in the Earth's crust; prediction of the earthquakes; seismic zoning; estimate of seismic hazard etc. Avouac, Jean-Philippe, male, born on October 23, 1963, in Belfort, France. Education - engineering degree, Ecole Polytechnique (1987), and Ph.D. in Geology, Paris University (1991). Head of Laboratoire de Télédétection et Risque Sismique, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique (1996 - present), and Research fellow at Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris. Won the E. A. Flinn Award, 1993 (International Lithosphere Program, American Geophysical Union). Principal research areas are Active Tectonics , Geomorphology, and Seismic Hazard. Scientific contributions include - contribution to better understanding the relationship between crustal strain and seismicity and the role of surface processes. Methodological development in morphotectonics and the use of satellite imagery to measure seismotectonic deformation. Main focus on active orogenic processes (Himalaya, Tien Shan, Taiwan). Email: [email protected]; [email protected]. Balassanian, Serguei Yu., presently Professor of the Yerevan State University, and President of Armenian Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (AASPEI). Since 2000 he is the President of Asian Seismological Commission (IASPEI). In 2002 he is being rewarded as the Laureate 2002 of the UN-Sasakawa Award for his personal long-term commitment and dedication to the issue of disaster reduction, in particular in the field seismic hazards, as well as for mobilizing efforts in the scientific domain and political spheres towards a strong promotion and awareness-raising initiatives for the reduction of seismic disaster risk worldwide. He is author and designer of Armenian National Policy in the field of Seismic Risk Reduction; Founder and President (since foundation, 1991-2002) of the Armenian National Survey for Seismic Protection (NSSP); Initiator and the leading author of the two national programs on Armenia Seismic