GATHERING STORM: THE RISKS OF STATE PENSION UNDERFUNDING
October 19–20, 2017 Harvard University Loeb House, 17 Quincy Street Cambridge, Massachusetts INTRODUCTION
Across the United States, state and local government-sponsored pension plans are in trouble. Some are substantially underfunded to the extent that their assets are unable to meet future liabilities without either outsized investment returns or large cash infusions.
Based on discount rate assumptions used by plan sponsors (generally 7.5%), the estimated unfunded liability exceeds $1 trillion. Using more conservative assumptions, namely a risk-free discount rate, the liability could soar to $5 trillion. These aggregate national figures obscure considerable heterogeneity. Half a dozen states are dangerously under- funded, while other states are approaching full funding.
The Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government (M-RCBG) at Harvard Kennedy School is pleased to help bring increased focus and attention to the problem of underfunded state pensions through this conference, Gathering Storm: The Risks Of State Pension Underfunding. Final copies of the papers presented during this two-day event will be made available to the public via the Center’s website or in a published volume.
We are grateful to our many colleagues who have formal roles in the program, to those who are joining us as guests, and to the Pew and Arnold Foundations whose support has helped make this event possible.
Roger B. Porter Thomas J. Healey Co-chair, Pension conference Co-chair, Pension conference IBM Professor of Business Senior Fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani and Government, Center for Business & Government, Harvard Kennedy School Harvard Kennedy School AGENDA Day 1: Thursday, October 19, 2017
8:00 am Breakfast
8:30 am Welcome and Introductory Remarks
Thomas J. Healey, Senior Fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School
8:45 am Session I: A Realistic Assessment of the Challenge (Part 1)
Moderator: Robert R. Glauber, Lecturer, Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and Visiting Professor, Harvard Law School
Speakers:
8:45 AM Robert P. Inman, Richard King Mellon Professor of Finance and Economics, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania “The How, Why and Consequences of State and Local Deficits”
9:00 AM Andrew G. Biggs, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research “Public Employee Pensions: Liabilities and Affordability”
Respondents:
9:15 AM Alicia Munnell, Director, Peter F. Drucker Professor of Management Sciences, Boston College’s Carroll School of Management
9:25 AM William Glasgall, Director, State and Local Program, The Volcker Alliance
9:35 – 10:25 AM: Open Discussion 1 Thursday, October 19, 2017 (continued)
10:25 am Break
10:40 am Session II: A Realistic Assessment of the Challenge (Part 2)
Moderator: Josh McGee, Vice President, Laura and John Arnold Foundation and Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute
Speakers:
10:40 AM C. Eugene Steuerle, Fellow and Richard B. Fisher Chair, Urban Institute “The Macro Implications of State Pension Design”
10:55 AM Gregory Mennis, Director, Public Sector Retirement Systems, The Pew Charitable Trusts “Assessing the Risk of Fiscal Distress for Public Pensions — State Stress Test Analysis”
11:10 AM Amy B. Monahan, The Melvin Steen & Corporate Donors Professor, University of Minnesota Law School “Legal Obstacles to Changing Benefits”
Respondents:
11:25 AM Jason Furman, Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy, Harvard Kennedy School
11:35 AM Daniel R. Liljenquist, President of the Retirement Security Initiative and Former Utah State Senator
11:45 AM – 12:35 PM: Open Discussion
12:35 pm Lunch
2 1:35 pm Session III: Current Pension Realities
Moderator: Thomas J. Healey, Senior Fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School
Speakers:
1:35 PM Antonio Weiss, Senior Fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School “Public Pension Crisis in Puerto Rico”
1:50 PM Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management “The ARC and the Covenants: Computing the Pension and OPEB Burdens of States, Cities and Counties”
2:05 PM James E. Spiotto, Managing Director, Chapman Strategic Advisors LLC “When Needed Public Pension Reform Efforts Fail or Appear to Be Legally Impossible, What Then?”
2:20 PM David Draine, Senior Officer, Public Sector Retirement Systems, The Pew Charitable Trusts “Public Pension Underfunding in Five Troubled States”
2:35 – 3:25 PM: Open Discussion
3:25 pm Break
3 Thursday, October 19, 2017 (continued)
3:45 pm Session IV: Better Measurements (Part 1)
Moderator: C. Eugene Steuerle, Fellow and Richard B. Fisher Chair, Urban Institute
Speakers:
3:45 PM Deborah Lucas, Sloan Distinguished Professor of Finance and Director of the MIT Golub Center for Finance and Policy “Towards Fair Value Accounting for Public Pensions: The Case for Delinking Disclosure and Funding Requirements”
4:00 PM Thomas S. Terry, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, The Terry Group “Examining the Measurement Arguments from Both Sides”
4:15 PM Marcia Van Wagner, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Public Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service “Stress-Testing the States: ANPL, Tread Water Gaps, and the Budget Shock Index”
Respondent:
4:30 PM Keith Brainard, Research Director, National Association of State Retirement Administrators
4:40 – 5:15 PM: Open Discussion
4 5:15 pm Video: Comments by Paul A. Volcker Former Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
7:00 pm Dinner Harvard Kennedy School Littauer Bldg | 4th Floor | Malkin Penthouse 79 JFK Street Guest Speaker: Lawrence H. Summers, President Emeritus and the Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University
5 Day 2: Friday, October 20, 2017
8:00 am Breakfast
8:30 am Session V: Better Measurements (Part 2)
Moderator: Kenneth A. Kriz, Regents Distinguished Professor of Public Finance, Wichita State University and Director of the Kansas Public Finance Center
8:30 AM Daniel Shoag, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Taubman Center for State and Local Government, Harvard Kennedy School “Improvements in Pension Measurement and Risk Assessment”
8:45 AM Kurt D. Winkelmann, Senior Fellow, University of Minnesota “Low Growth Equals Low Returns”
9:00 AM David S. T. Matkin, Associate Professor and the Vice Chair of the Department of Public Administration and Policy in the Rockefeller College of Public Administration & Policy at the University at Albany–SUNY Gang Chen, Assistant Professor, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy, University at Albany–SUNY “The Sustainability of Public Pension Systems in a Low-Return Environment”
9:15 – 10:05 AM: Open Discussion
10:05 am Break
6 10:25 am Session VI: Lessons from Experience: Four Short Case Studies of Successes and Failures
Moderator: Teresa Ghilarducci, Bernard L. and Irene Schwartz Professor of Economics at The New School for Social Research and the Director of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) and The New School’s Retirement Equity Lab (ReLab)
10:25 AM Senator Jake Corman, Majority Leader, 34th District, State of Pennsylvania “Pennsylvania”
10:40 AM Mark A. Dingley, Deputy Director of the Rhode Island Department of Administration “Rhode Island”
10:55 AM Leonard Gilroy, Senior Managing Director, Pension Integrity Project, Reason Foundation “Arizona”
11:10 AM Thomas J. Healey, Senior Fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School “New Jersey”
11:25 AM – 12:15 PM: Open Discussion
12:15 pm Lunch
7 Friday, October 20, 2017 (continued)
1:20 pm Session VII: Obstacles, Opportunities, and Prescriptions
Moderator: Richard Ravitch, Former Lieutenant Governor, State of New York
Speakers:
1:20 PM Joshua D. Rauh, Ormond Family Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University “Transitioning from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution Pensions in the Public Sector”
1:35 PM Josh B. McGee, Vice President, Laura and John Arnold Foundation and Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute “Where Should Pension Reform Go From Here?”
1:50 PM Donald J. Boyd, Director of Fiscal Studies, The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government–SUNY “The Reforms That Public Pensions Really Need”
Respondent:
2:05 PM Joshua Gotbaum, Guest Scholar, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution
2:15 – 3:15 PM: Open Discussion
3:15 pm Concluding Remarks
Roger B. Porter, IBM Professor of Business and Government at Harvard University
8 PARTICIPANTS As of October 16
Jean-Pierre Aubry Robert Clark Boston College North Carolina State University
Javier Balmaceda Mike Clowes Debtwire Municipals Pensions & Investments
Susan Banta Jake Corman The Pew Charitable Trusts State of Pennsylvania Senate
Ed Bartholomew David Crane Pension Consultant Stanford University
Adam Berger Caroline Crawford Wellington Management Company Boston College
Andrew Biggs Mark Dingley American Enterprise Institute for Rhode Island Department of Public Policy Research Administration
Jeff Blazek David Draine Cambridge Associates The Pew Charitable Trusts
Don Boyd Doug Elmendorf The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Harvard Kennedy School Government — SUNY Jim Farrell Keith Brainard Florida Southern College National Association of State Retirement Administrators Jason Furman Harvard Kennedy School Allan Bufferd Massachusetts Institute of Technology Teresa Ghilarducci New School in New York Mike Cembalest J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Heather Gillers Management Wall Street Journal
Gang Chen Leonard Gilroy Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Pension Integrity Project, Policy, University at Albany—SUNY Reason Foundation
Adam Chepenik Bill Glasgall Ernst & Young The Volcker Alliance
9 Robert Glauber Scott Leland Harvard Kennedy School Harvard Kennedy School
Josh Gotbaum Dan Liljenquist The Brookings Institution Retirement Security Initiative; Utah State Senate (2009–2011) Paul Greaves Debtwire Municipals Deborah Lucas MIT Sloan School of Management John Haigh Harvard Kennedy School Brigitte Madrian Harvard Kennedy School Thomas J. Healey Harvard Kennedy School Karen Maloney Cambridge University Press Michael Hendrix Manhattan Institute David Matkin Rockefeller College of Public Bob Inman Administration & Policy, University at Wharton School, University of Albany—SUNY Pennsylvania Andrew McClure Hyewon Kang Trident Capital Cybersecurity Wichita State University Josh McGee Kate Kemmerer Laura and John Arnold Foundation, Pew Charitable Trusts and Kansas and Manhattan Institute Public Finance Center Greg Mennis George Kendall The Pew Charitable Trusts Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP John Minahan Bryce Klempner Massachusetts Institute of Technology McKinsey & Company James Mnookin David Knapp Cambridge Associates Rand Corporation Amy Monahan Marti Kopacz University of Minnesota Law School Phoenix Management Alicia H. Munnell Ken Kriz Boston College’s Carroll School of Wichita State University Hugo Wall Management School of Public Affairs
10 Marc Pfeiffer Sitara Sundar Bloustein Local Government Research J.P. Morgan Center — Rutgers Tom Terry Roger B. Porter The Terry Group Harvard Kennedy School Michael Thompson Laura Quinby The Pew Charitable Trusts Boston College Sue Urahn Josh Rauh The Pew Charitable Trusts Stanford Graduate School of Business Marcia Van Wagner Richard Ravitch Moody’s Investors Service Former Lieutenant Governor of New York Stan Veuger American Enterprise Institute Amy Resnick Pensions & Investments Paul A. Volcker The Volcker Alliance Jay Rosengard Harvard Kennedy School Mary Walsh New York Times Devjani Roy Texas Tech University Health Antonio Weiss Sciences Center Harvard Kennedy School
Troy Senik Kurt Winkelmann Manhattan Institute University of Minnesota
Brian Septon Yimeng Yin The Terry Group Rockefeller Institute of Government
Dan Shoag Richard Zeckhauser Harvard Kennedy School Harvard Kennedy School
Jim Spiotto Chapman Strategic Advisors LLC
Gene Steuerle Urban Institute This conference was made possible, in part, by the generous contributions of Lawrence H. Summers the Laura and John Arnold Foundation Harvard Kennedy School and The Pew Charitable Trusts.
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B E R ATHLETIC AREA r u ld E ig s T e W Mather H ht S oc - . L S ke a L W FR n House K y d av N FALLON PL AN C r i H N K e y P e O LI A N T nt a te J v Thursday Oct 19 S E Parking: B e i s TR r lio EE E G n T R o T r S Jo d t M r o t Y d n E a e A n I M n g l B F d O i d Dinner: Charles Hotel Garage E e o o s o R 23-25 * V ld o l o s Ha r y I T B P m A A r i FLAGG STR a W lt L EET c o SOLDI M n ERS FIE T k LD RO D M AD A E T R E u N R E I T
r T r M V T E o e C K C E Harvard Kennedy School U I S 1 Bennett Street N D e R rr k N
P A nt T is R A K S c Corporal Burns IR e E D C O r d D E S O R K u Mellon TR C R s L E D L r Playground E N A t L L G m T A o e e A E V G u I R e a l l H b v W Charles River Reservation F ll d a l A a l t e i Littauerin Bldg | 4th Floors | Malkino Penthouse S H s s C R Canoe/Kayak O'Donnell Field H W c E Gate 14 H I T M Harvard Square Parking Garage R D a r L O ng rthu C l cA i o C l M O N t nne hase loch S t McCul o ll FR C 79 JFK St A N M KL O M HA IN R o RV 20 Eliot Street G A S A rg RD H T N a W Dillo ll AY R W n AY n Greenhi E E A S ET Y ST m RE iu HARVARD BUSINESS ET d Enter the Kennedy School’s Littauer building a Peabody Terrace t Chao S Ba SCHOOL Sha ker Dean's House rd Bl Garage a d oom Tata v be r rg s M a AGE G e E H O from the main entrance on JFK Street. Take the R D w H
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H W 1120 RO T AD R A T E Class of k R c E E D J
T E T A stairs oro elevator to the third floor; walk toward S R Y 1959 Chapel R Aldr K E ich T T R E S R S E R A k KRO T N STREET E S T c R R E S G E E o E T
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Gate 8 T 10 K N L room 324 (the Fainsod room)W and follow the sign m E Soldiers Field Park S N E A
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Burden D M
I C Ohiri Field E A A LLEN R D N E R STREET McCurdy Track up to the Malkin Penthouse on the 4th floor. S T Buildings
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T F P T Sp I HIN E ang E GHAM S ler TREE E
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28 HarvarS d Institutional R Klarman S
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Receiving E D U A 30 P T H
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D A Harvard Non-Institutional r A I D William F. Smith M I s e ier R City B P ld t U So S s O A S 387 381- R G Playground D e R ield M E N F Park I
I Administrative contacts: E V C L V 383 W I H E M R M R rk O Pa Non-Harvard (Leased Space) J O NUE M O AVE A W ne RN E R T O F e WES Y g A a T E r O Ga N S
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A GE G Devjani Roy, cell 704-488-2718 D S E BRI T ENUE AV U Harvard Underground RN th T E Batten T WESTE Nor E R T E
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E E ard ENU T rv W AV Ha RN ne T WESTE lacksto R A B 46 E E ion at Y V I v E I V InnoVictoria Groves, cell: 978-726-3621 eet Non-Harvard Y uca Str T R L Pagli Hoyt Field D A ab N L D ST E d BALLOR S 135 Harvar U P Lab M Life A Green Scott Leland,H cell: 617-413-0249 C A South H G T est U W P U T E U E O ENUE V T Harvard N A E S ER S EST B W N R T L T
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K A A 114-124 T S V S A T E Public/Other E O E N N AVENU T L T N U STER E ConferenceE website: www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/programs/pension P WE RE E E ST E R 168 L A T 182 M S U T S T eel A R e S D R E P R L U E E R D T S E ST R Science and Engineering T T R T E A 204 O R 2 E R CSX Easement E 24 T V 9 E d s R Complex r c T A B Sanofi Genzyme a i l ER d H T v r a R m A T r a t M a r E a v T r H REET E o 210 ST T E E r T R H e K R T R a P S E R Feet C A Riverside Press Park R L T H E L d O V V I S R E E N Y I 0 100 200 400 600 800 S R
O S A D T E 25 L R A E ALLSTON LANDING NORTH D E
R T 28 E T V E A V E I C E T H R T N R E A KINGSLEY STREET E O L T R T K T M T S S E S ER IR S T E V R S RI A W R F E E E E T T M R S D L N O D A H A
E September 2017 M