Figures and Background Data
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Scotland's Population 2011 - The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends All Figures and Background Data Contents Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2035 Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2011 Figure 1.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2011 Figure 1.4 The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 2001-2011 Figure 1.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 2001-2011 Figure 1.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2035 Figure 1.7 The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2010-2035 Figure 1.8 Dependency ratios (per thousand working population), 2010-2035 Figure 1.9 Projected percentage population change in selected European countries 2010-2035 Figure 2.1 Births and deaths, Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 2.2 Estimated female population aged 15-44 and general fertility rate (GFR), Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 2.3 Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 2.4 Live births per 1,000 women, by age, selected years Figure 2.5 Total fertility rate, Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 2.6 Cumulative cohort fertility rates for selected birth cohorts, Scotland Figure 2.7 Total fertility rates, UK countries, 1971-2011 Figure 3.1 Average age at death, selected causes, Scotland, 1978-2011 Figure 3.2 Age specific mortality rates as a proportion of 1981 rate, 1981-2011 Figure 3.3 Age-adjusted mortality rates, by selected cause and sex, 2010 Figure 4.1 Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1981-2035 Figure 4.2a Life expectancy at birth in selected countries, 1997-1999 to 2008-2010, Males Figure 4.2b Life expectancy at birth in selected countries, 1997-1999 to 2008-2010, Females Figure 4.3 Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals for Council areas, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) Figure 4.4 Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals for Urban and Rural areas, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) Figure 4.5 Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals for Community Health Partnership Areas, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) Figure 4.6a Percentage change in life expectancy, 1998-2000 to 2008-2010, in Scotland and for each individual Community Health Partnership (CHP) Area, Males Figure 4.6b Percentage change in life expectancy, 1998-2000 to 2008-2010, in Scotland and for each individual Community Health Partnership (CHP) Area, Females Figure 4.7 Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals by level of deprivation, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) Figure 5.1 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 5.2 Movements to/from the rest of the UK, 1981-2011 Figure 5.3 Movements to/from overseas, 1991-2011 Figure 5.4 Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK, by age, mid-2010 to mid-2011 Figure 5.5 Movements between Scotland and overseas, by age, mid-2010 to mid-2011 Figure 5.6 Net migration as percentage of population by Council area, 2001-2011 Figure 5.7 Net migration with areas outside Scotland as percentage of population by Council area, mid-2010 to mid-2011 Figure 6.1 Marriages, Scotland, 1971-2011 Figure 6.2 Marriages, by marital status and sex of persons marrying, 1971-2011 Figure 6.3 Marriages, by type of ceremony, 1971-2011 Figure 6.4 Civil partnerships, 2006-2011 Figure 7.1 Divorces and marriages, Scotland, 1971-2011 Figure 8.1 Age at adoption, Scotland, 2011 Figure 9.1 Annual increase in the number of households in Scotland, 2001 to 2011 Figure 9.2 Projected percentage change in households by Council area, 2010 to 2035 Figure 9.3 Households in Scotland by household type: 1981, 2010 and 2035 Figure 9.4 Households in Scotland by age of head of household: 1981, 2010 and 2035 Figure 9.5 Single-adult households, by urban-rural classification, 2011 Figure 9.6 Single-adult households, by level of deprivation, 2011 Figure 9.7 Dwelling type, by urban-rural classification, 2011 Figure 9.8 Dwelling type, by level of deprivation, 2011 Figure 9.9 Vacant dwellings and second homes, by urban-rural classification, 2011 Figure 9.10 Vacant dwellings and second homes, by level of deprivation, 2011 Figure 9.11 Percentage of dwellings which are second homes, in each data zone in Scotland, 2011 © Crown Copyright 2012 1,000 2,000 Persons3,000 ('000s)4,000 5,000 6,000 1) 2010-based projections. Footnote 0 1951 1954 1957 1960 Figure 1.1:EstimatedPopulationofScotland, actualandprojected,1951-2035 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 Actual 1984 Year at30 June 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2011 2014 2017 2020 Pro j 2023 ected 2026 1 2029 2032 2035 © Crown Copyright 2012 Persons ('000s) -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 40 50 0 1951-52 1954-55 1957-58 1960-61 1963-64 Figure 1.2:Naturalchangeandnetmigration, 1951-2011 1966-67 1969-70 1972-73 Year to30 June 1975-76 1978-79 1981-82 1984-85 1987-88 Net Migration Natural Change(births-deaths) 1990-91 1993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2010-11 © Crown Copyright 2012 Figure 1.3: Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2011 90+ 84 78 72 66 60 54 48 Age 42 36 30 24 18 12 6 0 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Persons ('000s) Males Females © Crown Copyright 2012 Figure 1.4: The changing age structure of Scotland's population, 2001-2011 1,400 -12% 1,200 +13% 2001 -6% +12% 2011 1,000 +15% 800 Persons ('000s) 600 +15% 400 200 0 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 + Age group © Crown Copyright 2012 Figure 1.5: Percentage population change by Council area, 2001 - 2011 Percentage change less than 0% 0% to less than 4% 4% to less than 8% 8% or more Shetland Islands Orkney Islands Eilean Siar High land Moray Aberdeenshire 15 Angus Perth & Kinross 14 Argyll & Bute Stirling Fife 8 9 1 2 7 11 4 13 6 3 10 Numbered Areas 12 North 5 Ayrshire South 1. West Dunbartonshire Lanarkshire 2. East Dunbartonshire East Scottish Borders 3. North Lanarkshire Ayrshire 4. Glasgow City South 5. East Renfrewshire Ayrshire 6. Renfrewshire 7. Inverclyde Dumfries & Galloway 8. Clackmannanshire 9. Falkirk 10. West Lothian 11. City of Edinburgh 12. Midlothian 13. East Lothian © Crown copyright 2012 14. Dundee City All rights reserved National Records of Scotland 15. Aberdeen City Licence number: 100020542 2) 2010basedprojections, datashownformid-year. 1) Calendaryear. Footnotes Persons ('000s) 100 120 20 40 60 80 0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 Figure 1.6:Birthsanddeaths,actual projected, Scotland1951-2035 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 Actual 1981 1984 1 1987 Year 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2011 2014-15 2017-18 Projected 2020-21 2023-24 Deaths Births 2 2026-27 2029-30 2032-33 2034-35 © Crown Copyright 2012 1 90% Figure 1.7: The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland's population, 2010-2035 82% 80% 70% 60% 50% 46% 40% 30% Percentage change 20% 10% 3% 0% 0% -3% -2% -10% 0-15 16-29 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+ Footnote 1) 2010-based projections. Age Group © Crown Copyright 2012 Figure 1.8: Dependency Ratios1 (per thousand working age population), 2010-2035 700 600 500 400 300 200 All Dependants 100 Pensionable Age Dependency ratio (per thousand working age population) Children 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Footnote Year at 30 June 1) 2010-based projections. © Crown Copyright 2012 Source: Office forNationalStatistics(UK andconstituentcountries) andEurostat. Percentage change -20% -15% -10% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% -5% 0% 5% Bulgaria Latvia Figure 1.9:Projectedpercentagepopulation changeinselectedEuropeancountries2010-2035 Lithuania Romania Germany Estonia Hungary Poland Malta Portugal Slovakia Czech Republic Greece EU27 Slovenia Netherlands Austria Finland Denmark Italy SCOTLAND France Spain Northern Ireland Liechtenstein Wales Sweden Belgium Iceland Switzerland UK England Norway Ireland Cyprus Luxembourg © Crown Copyright 2012 120 Figure 2.1: Births and deaths, Scotland 1951-2011 Births Deaths 100 80 60 Persons ('000s) 40 20 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year © Crown Copyright 2012 Figure 2.2: Estimated female population aged 15-44 and General Fertility Rate (GFR), Scotland, 1951-2011 Females aged 15-44 1,400 GFR (live births per 1,000 120 women aged 15-44) 1,200 100 1,000 80 800 60 600 GFR 40 Women aged 15-44 ('000s) aged 15-44 Women 400 20 200 0 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year © Crown Copyright 2012 Figure 2.3: Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951-2011 250 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 200 150 100 Fertility rate Fertility 50 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year © Crown Copyright 2012 250 Figure 2.4: Live births per 1,000 women, by age1, selected years 1951 1964 200 1977 1991 2011 150 Fertility rate Fertility 100 50 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Footnote 1) Rate for age 15 includes births at younger ages and for age 44 for births at Age of mother older ages.