Figures and Background Data

Scotland's Population 2011 - The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends

All Figures and Background Data

Contents

Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2035 Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2011 Figure 1.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2011 Figure 1.4 The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 2001-2011 Figure 1.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 2001-2011 Figure 1.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2035 Figure 1.7 The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2010-2035 Figure 1.8 Dependency ratios (per thousand working population), 2010-2035 Figure 1.9 Projected percentage population change in selected European countries 2010-2035 Figure 2.1 Births and deaths, Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 2.2 Estimated female population aged 15-44 and general fertility rate (GFR), Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 2.3 Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 2.4 Live births per 1,000 women, by age, selected years Figure 2.5 Total fertility rate, Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 2.6 Cumulative cohort fertility rates for selected birth cohorts, Scotland Figure 2.7 Total fertility rates, UK countries, 1971-2011 Figure 3.1 Average age at death, selected causes, Scotland, 1978-2011 Figure 3.2 Age specific mortality rates as a proportion of 1981 rate, 1981-2011 Figure 3.3 Age-adjusted mortality rates, by selected cause and sex, 2010 Figure 4.1 Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1981-2035 Figure 4.2a Life expectancy at birth in selected countries, 1997-1999 to 2008-2010, Males Figure 4.2b Life expectancy at birth in selected countries, 1997-1999 to 2008-2010, Females Figure 4.3 Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals for Council areas, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) Figure 4.4 Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals for Urban and Rural areas, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) Figure 4.5 Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals for Community Health Partnership Areas, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) Figure 4.6a Percentage change in life expectancy, 1998-2000 to 2008-2010, in Scotland and for each individual Community Health Partnership (CHP) Area, Males Figure 4.6b Percentage change in life expectancy, 1998-2000 to 2008-2010, in Scotland and for each individual Community Health Partnership (CHP) Area, Females Figure 4.7 Life expectancy at birth, 95 per cent confidence intervals by level of deprivation, 2008-2010 (Males and Females) Figure 5.1 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2011 Figure 5.2 Movements to/from the rest of the UK, 1981-2011 Figure 5.3 Movements to/from overseas, 1991-2011 Figure 5.4 Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK, by age, mid-2010 to mid-2011 Figure 5.5 Movements between Scotland and overseas, by age, mid-2010 to mid-2011 Figure 5.6 Net migration as percentage of population by Council area, 2001-2011 Figure 5.7 Net migration with areas outside Scotland as percentage of population by Council area, mid-2010 to mid-2011 Figure 6.1 Marriages, Scotland, 1971-2011 Figure 6.2 Marriages, by marital status and sex of persons marrying, 1971-2011 Figure 6.3 Marriages, by type of ceremony, 1971-2011 Figure 6.4 Civil partnerships, 2006-2011 Figure 7.1 Divorces and marriages, Scotland, 1971-2011 Figure 8.1 Age at adoption, Scotland, 2011 Figure 9.1 Annual increase in the number of households in Scotland, 2001 to 2011 Figure 9.2 Projected percentage change in households by Council area, 2010 to 2035 Figure 9.3 Households in Scotland by household type: 1981, 2010 and 2035 Figure 9.4 Households in Scotland by age of head of household: 1981, 2010 and 2035 Figure 9.5 Single-adult households, by urban-rural classification, 2011 Figure 9.6 Single-adult households, by level of deprivation, 2011 Figure 9.7 Dwelling type, by urban-rural classification, 2011 Figure 9.8 Dwelling type, by level of deprivation, 2011 Figure 9.9 Vacant dwellings and second homes, by urban-rural classification, 2011 Figure 9.10 Vacant dwellings and second homes, by level of deprivation, 2011 Figure 9.11 Percentage of dwellings which are second homes, in each data zone in Scotland, 2011

5,000

4,000 Actual Projected 1

3,000 Persons ('000s)

2,000

1,000

0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035

Footnote Year at 30 June 1) 2010-based projections.

Persons ('000s) -10

-20

-30

-40

-50 1951-52 1954-55 1957-58 1960-61 1963-64 1966-67 1969-70 1972-73 1975-76 1978-79 1981-82 1984-85 1987-88 1990-91 1993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2010-11

Year to 30 June

90+ 84 78 72 66 60 54 48

Age 42 36 30 24 18 12 6 0 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Persons ('000s)

Males Females

-12% 1,200 +13% 2001 -6% +12% 2011 1,000 +15% 800

Persons ('000s) 600 +15%

400

200

0 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 +

Age group

Percentage change less than 0% 0% to less than 4% 4% to less than 8% 8% or more

Shetland Islands

Orkney Islands

Eilean Siar

High land

Moray

Aberdeenshire 15

Angus

Perth & Kinross 14 Argyll & Bute Stirling Fife 8

9 1 2 7 11 4 13 6 3 10 Numbered Areas 12 North 5 Ayrshire South 1. West Dunbartonshire Lanarkshire 2. East Dunbartonshire East Scottish Borders 3. North Lanarkshire Ayrshire 4. Glasgow City South 5. East Renfrewshire Ayrshire 6. Renfrewshire 7. Inverclyde Dumfries & Galloway 8. Clackmannanshire 9. Falkirk 10. West Lothian 11. City of Edinburgh 12. Midlothian 13. East Lothian © Crown copyright 2012 14. Dundee City All rights reserved National Records of Scotland 15. Aberdeen City Licence number: 100020542

Figure 1.6: Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland 1951-2035 120 2011

Actual1 Projected 2 100

80 Births Deaths

Persons ('000s) 40

0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Footnotes 2014-15 2017-18 2020-21 2023-24 2026-27 2029-30 2032-33 2034-35 1) Calendar year. 2) 2010 based projections, data shown for mid-year. Year

70%

60%

50% 46%

40%

30% Percentage change 20%

10% 3% 0% 0% -3% -2% -10% 0-15 16-29 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+ Footnote 1) 2010-based projections. Age Group

600

500

400

300

200

All Dependants 100 Pensionable Age

Dependency ratio (per thousand working age population) Children 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Footnote Year at 30 June 1) 2010-based projections.

Percentage change -5% -10% -15% -20% UK Italy Malta EU27 Spain Latvia Wales Ireland Poland Austria France Cyprus Iceland Finland Greece Estonia Norway Sweden Belgium Bulgaria England Portugal Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Romania Lithuania Denmark Germany Switzerland Netherlands SCOTLAND Luxembourg Liechtenstein Czech Republic Northern Ireland Source: Office for National Statistics (UK and constituent countries) and Eurostat.

60 Persons ('000s) 40

0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year

1,400 GFR (live births per 1,000 120 women aged 15-44) 1,200 100

1,000 80

800 60 600 GFR 40

Women aged 15-44 ('000s) aged 15-44 Women 400

20 200

0 0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year

250 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 200

150

100 Fertility rate Fertility

0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year

1951 1964 200 1977 1991 2011

150

Fertility rate Fertility 100

0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Footnote 1) Rate for age 15 includes births at younger ages and for age 44 for births at Age of mother older ages.

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5 Total fertility rate fertility Total 1.0

0.5

0.0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year

2.0

1.5

1951 1956 1.0 1961 1966 1971 1976 Cumulative cohort fertility rate Cumulative cohort 0.5 1981

0.0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

Age

England 3.0 Wales Scotland Northern Ireland 2.5

2.0

1.5 Total fertility rate fertility Total 1.0

0.5

0.0 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Year

88 All causes 86 Stroke 84 Ischaemic heart disease Cancer 82 80 78 76 74

Average age 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Year

100

60 Percentage

45-64 20 65-74 75+

0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Year

Females

100

60 Percentage

40 45-64 65-74 20 75+

0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Year

200

150

100

0 Cancer Ischaemic heart disease Cerebrovascular disease

Scotland Wales England Northern Ireland

200

150

100

0 Cancer Ischaemic heart disease Cerebrovascular disease

Scotland Wales England Northern Ireland

Age 40

Males 20 Females 10

0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2032 2035 Year Footnote 1) Figures to 2010 are based on 3 years of data. For example 2010 figure uses data for 2009-2011. Source: Figures to 2010 from provisional Interim Life Tables produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Figures after 2010 are projected single year life expectancies, ONS.

85 Northern Ireland England Scotland Sweden United Kingdom Wales Lithuania 80

75 Age

60 1997-1999 1998-2000 1999-2001 2000-2002 2001-2003 2002-2004 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-2009 2008-2010

Source: EUROSTAT, Office for National Statistics and National Records of Scotland Year

Northern Ireland England Scotland France United Kingdom Wales Romania 85

80 Age

70 1997-1999 1998-2000 1999-2001 2000-2002 2001-2003 2002-2004 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-2009 2008-2010 Year Source: EUROSTAT, Office for National Statistics and National Records of Scotland

East Dunbartonshire Perth & Kinross East Renfrewshire Aberdeenshire Stirling Angus Scottish Borders Orkney Islands East Lothian Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of Argyll & Bute Moray Dumfries & Galloway MALES FEMALES Midlothian Highland Falkirk South Ayrshire Fife Aberdeen City West Lothian South Lanarkshire Clackmannanshire East Ayrshire North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Eilean Siar Dundee City Renfrewshire West Dunbartonshire Inverclyde Glasgow City

68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 Age Footnote 1) Life expectancy at birth is an estimate which is subject to a margin of error. The accuracy of results can be indicated by calculating a confidence interval which provides a range within which the true value underlying life expectancy would lie (with 95 per cent probability).

Accessible Rural

Remote Rural

Accessible Small Towns

MALES FEMALES Other Urban Areas

Remote Small Towns

Large Urban Areas

65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 Footnotes 1) Life expectancy at birth is an estimate which is subject to a margin of error. The accuracy of results can be indicated by calculating a confidence interval which provides Age a range within which the true value underlying life expectancy would lie (with 95 per cent probability). 2) Scottish Government’s 6-fold Urban Rural Classification version 2009-2010. More details can be found in Appendix 2.

SCOTLAND

East Dunbartonshire Perth & Kinross *East Renfrewshire Aberdeenshire Stirling Angus *Scottish Borders Glenrothes & North East Fife Orkney East Lothian Shetland Edinburgh Mid Highland North Highland MALES FEMALES Argyll & Bute ^Moray Dumfries & Galloway Midlothian Falkirk South Ayrshire Aberdeen City *West Lothian Dunfermline & West Fife South Lanarkshire Clackmannanshire South East Highland East Ayrshire Kirkcaldy & Levenmouth North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire ^Western Isles Dundee Renfrewshire *West Dunbartonshire *Inverclyde +Glasgow City 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 *Known as a Community Health and Care Partnership ^Known as a Community Healt and Social Care Partnership Age +Glasgow CHP is based on five Community Health and Care Partnerships which existed before the new single CHP was set up on 22 March 2011

7% SCOTLAND

3% Percentage change Percentage 2%

0% Angus Falkirk Stirling ^Moray Orkney Dundee Shetland Midlothian Edinburgh *Inverclyde East Lothian Argyll & Bute Mid Highland Renfrewshire East Ayrshire *West Lothian Aberdeen City North Ayrshire North +Glasgow City Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire ^Western Isles North Highland Perth & Kinross *Scottish Borders *Scottish North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire Clackmannanshire *East Renfrewshire South East Highland East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway *West Dunbartonshire Kirkcaldy & Levenmouth Dunfermline & West Fife

*Known as a Community Health and Care Partnership Ordered left to right by lowest to highest life expectancy in 2008-2010 Glenrothes & North East Fife ^Known as a Community Health and Social Care Partnership +Glasgow CHPs are based on five Community Health and Care Partnerships which existed before the new single CHP was set up on 22 March 2011

SCOTLAND 4%

2% Percentage change Percentage 1%

0% Angus Falkirk Stirling ^Moray Orkney Dundee

-1% Shetland Midlothian Edinburgh *Inverclyde East Lothian Argyll & Bute Mid Highland Renfrewshire East Ayrshire *West Lothian *West Aberdeen City North Ayrshire +Glasgow City +Glasgow Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire ^Western Isles North Highland North Perth & Kinross *Scottish Borders *Scottish North Lanarkshire North South Lanarkshire Clackmannanshire *East Renfrewshire *East East Dunbartonshire South East Highland Dumfries & Galloway *West Dunbartonshire *West Kirkcaldy & Levenmouth Dunfermline & West Fife Dunfermline *Known as a Community Health and Care Partnership Ordered left to right by lowest to highest life expectancy in 2008-2010

^Known as a Community Health and Social Care Partnership East Fife & North Glenrothes +Glasgow CHPs are based on five Community Health and Care Partnerships which existed before the new single CHP was set up on 22 March 2011

5 MALES FEMALES

1 Most deprived 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 Age Footnotes 1) Life expectancy at birth is an estimate which is subject to a margin of error. The accuracy of results can be indicated by calculating a confidence interval which provides a range within which the true value underlying life expectancy would lie (with 95 per cent probability). 2) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2009. More information can be found in Appendix 2.

-10

Persons ('000s) -20

-30

-40

-50 1951-1952 1954-1955 1957-1958 1960-1961 1963-1964 1966-1967 1969-1970 1972-1973 1975-1976 1978-1979 1981-1982 1984-1985 1987-1988 1990-1991 1993-1994 1996-1997 1999-2000 2002-2003 2005-2006 2008-2009 2010-2011 Year to 30 June

30 Persons ('000s) 20 Out to the rest of the UK

10 In from the rest of the UK

0 1981-1982 1983-1984 1985-1986 1987-1988 1989-1990 1991-1992 1993-1994 1995-1996 1997-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2010-2011 Year to 30 June

20 Persons ('000s) 15

10 Out to overseas

5 In from overseas

0 1991-1992 1992-1993 1993-1994 1994-1995 1995-1996 1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 Year to 30 June Source: Office for National Statistics Long-Term International Migration

3,000

2,000

1,000

Persons 0

-1,000 Moves from Scotland Moves to Scotland -2,000 Net Migration

-3,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age

3,000

2,000

1,000

Persons 0

-1,000 Moves from Scotland Moves to Scotland -2,000 Net Migration

-3,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age

Percentage of population less than 0% 0% to less than 3% Shetland Islands 3% to less than 6% 6% or more

Orkney Islands

Eilean Siar

High land

Moray

Aberdeenshire 15

Angus

Perth & Kinross 14 Argyll & Bute Stirling Fife 8

Figure 5.7: Net migration with areas outside Scotland as percentage of population by Council area, mid-2010 to mid-2011

Percentage change less than 0%

0% to less than 0.5% Shetland Islands 0.5% to less than 1% 1% or more

Orkney Islands

Eilean Siar

High land

Moray

Aberdeenshire 15

Angus

Perth & Kinross 14 Argyll & Bute Stirling Fife 8

9 1 2 7 11 4 13 6 3 10 Numbered Areas 12 North 5 Ayrshire South 1. West Dunbartonshire Lanarkshire 2. East Dunbartonshire East Scottish Borders 3. North Lanarkshire Ayrshire 4. Glasgow City South 5. East Renfrewshire Ayrshire 6. Renfrewshire 7. Inverclyde 8. Clackmannanshire Dumfries & Galloway 9. Falkirk 10. West Lothian 11. City of Edinburgh 12. Midlothian 13. East Lothian © Crown copyright 2012 14. Dundee City All rights reserved National Records of Scotland 15. Aberdeen City Licence number: 100020542

45 Figure 6.1: Marriages, Scotland, 1971-2011

20 Marriages ('000s) 15

0 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30% Percentage of marriages 20%

10%

0% MFMFMFMFMFMFMFMFMFMF 1971 1971 1981 1981 1991 1991 2001 2001 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Single Divorced Widowed

45 Civil Other religious and other beliefs 40 Roman Catholic 35 Church of Scotland

10 Number of marriages ('000s) Number of marriages

0 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year

1,200 Female partnerships Male partnerships 1,000

800

600

400 Number of partnerships

200

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year (2005 not shown as the Act only came into force on 5 December 2005)

Figure 7.1: Divorces and marriages, Scotland 1971-2011 16 45

Divorces 14 40 Marriages 35 12

30 10 25 8 20 6 Divorces ('000s) 15 Marriages('000s)

4 10

2 5

0 0 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Year

40 Adoptions

0 0123456789101112131415+ Age

24,000

22,000

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

Annual increase in numberof households 4,000

2,000

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

Percentage change Less than 0% 0% to 10% 11% to 20% Shetland Islands 21% to 30% Greater than 30%

Orkney Islands

Eilean Siar

High land

Moray

Aberdeenshire 15

Angus

Perth & Kinross 14 Argyll & Bute Stirling Fife 8

1,400 Figure 9.3: Households in Scotland by household type: 1981, 2010 and 2035

1,200 1981 2010 2035 1,000

800

600

400 Number of households ('000s) Number of households

200

0 1 adult 2 adults 1 adult with 2+ adults with 3+ adults children children Type of household

1981 500 2010 2035

400

300

200 Number of households ('000s) Number of households

100

0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Age of head of household

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10% Percentage of dwellings in the area the in dwellings of Percentage 5%

0% Large urban Other urban Accessible Remote small Accessible rural Remote rural areas areas small towns towns areas areas Footnote 1) Dwellings entitled to a Council Tax discount, as there is only one adult living there (either alone, with children, or with those ‘disregarded’ for Council Tax purposes).

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10% Percentage of dwellings in the area Percentage of dwellings 5%

0% 12345678910 Most deprived Least deprived

Footnotes 1) Dwellings entitled to a Council Tax discount, as there is only one adult living there (either alone, with children, or with those ‘disregarded’ for Council Tax purposes). 2) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2009. More information can be found in Appendix 2.

90%

80%

70%

Flats 60% Terraced 50% Semi-detached Detached 40% Unknown

30%

20% Percentage of dwellings in the area Percentage of dwellings

10%

0% Large urban Other urban Accessible Remote Accessible Remote areas areas small towns small towns rural areas rural areas

90%

80%

70%

60% Flats Terraced 50% Semi-detached Detached 40% Unknown 30%

20% Percentage of dwellings in the area Percentage of dwellings 10%

0% 12345678910 Most deprived Least deprived Footnote 1) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2009. More information can be found in Appendix 2.

7% % Vacant % Second homes 6%

2% Percentage of dwellings in the area Percentage of dwellings 1%

0% Large urban Other urban Accessible Remote small Accessible rural Remote rural areas areas small towns towns areas areas

% Vacant 4% % Second homes

1% Percentage of dwellings in the area Percentage of dwellings

0% 12345678910 Most deprived Least deprived Footnote 1) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2009. More information can be found in Appendix 2.

Percentage of dwellings 1% or less 2% to 5% 6% to 10% 11% to 20% Shetland Islands Greater than 20% No data available

Orkney Islands

Eilean Siar

High land

Moray

Aberdeenshire 15

Angus

Perth & Kinross 14 Argyll & Bute Stirling Fife 8

9 1 2 7 11 13 6 4 Numbered Areas 3 10 12 North 5 South Ayrshire 1. West Dunbartonshire Lanarkshire 2. East Dunbartonshire East Scottish Borders 3. North Lanarkshire Ayrshire 4. Glasgow City South 5. East Renfrewshire Ayrshire 6. Renfrewshire 7. Inverclyde Dumfries & Galloway 8. Clackmannanshire 9. Falkirk 10. West Lothian 11. City of Edinburgh 12. Midlothian 13. East Lothian © Crown copyright 2012 14. Dundee City All rights reserved National Records of Scotland 15. Aberdeen City Licence number: 100020542