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The Homelessness Monitor: Scotland 2012

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The Homelessness Monitor: Scotland 2012 The homelessness monitor: Scotland 2012 Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Hal Pawson, Glen Bramley and Steve Wilcox, Institute for Housing, Urban and Real Estate Research, Heriot-Watt University and Centre for Housing Policy, University of York December 2012 The homelessness monitor 2011-2015 The homelessness monitor is a four year study that will provide an independent analysis of the impact on homelessness of recent economic and policy developments in Scotland. The key areas of interest include the homelessness effects of the post-2007 economic recession and the housing market downturn. The other main thrust of inquiry is the likely impacts of the welfare reforms and cutbacks in public expenditure being pursued by the UK Coalition Government elected in 2010, and the housing, homelessness and other relevant policies being implemented by the Scottish Government. The homelessness monitor Scotland is a four-year longitudinal study, and this first year report provides a ‘baseline’ account of how homelessness stands in Scotland in 2012. It also highlights emerging trends and forecasts some of the likely changes, identifying the developments that may have the most significant impacts on homelessness. While 2012 is the first year of The homelessness monitor in Scotland, and also in Wales, the first homelessness monitor for England was published in 2011. From 2013 there will also be a homelessness monitor for Northern Ireland. The homelessness monitor: Scotland 2012 Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Hal Pawson, Glen Bramley and Steve Wilcox Institute for Housing, Urban and Real Estate Research, Heriot-Watt University and Centre for Housing Policy, University of York December 2012 ii The homelessness monitor: Scotland 2012 About Crisis Crisis is the national charity for single homeless people. We are dedicated to ending homelessness by delivering life-changing services and campaigning for change. Our innovative education, employment, housing and well-being services address individual needs and help homeless people to transform their lives. We are determined campaigners, working to prevent people from becoming homeless and advocating solutions informed by research and our direct experience. About the authors Professor Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Professor Hal Pawson and Professor Glen Bramley are all based at the Institute for Housing, Urban and Real Estate Research, Heriot-Watt University. Professor Steve Wilcox is based at the Centre for Housing Policy, University of York. Acknowledgements: This report was commissioned and funded by Crisis, and our thanks to Lígia Teixeira, Duncan Shrubsole and Neil Guy at Crisis for all of their support with this work. A wide range of administrative and survey data sources have been consulted, and we should like to acknowledge the assistance of the following organisations in helping us to secure relevant data: Shelter Scotland, Scottish Government, Citizens Advice Scotland, the Housing Support Enabling Unit, City of Edinburgh Council. In addition, we are extremely grateful to all of the key informants from homelessness service providers and local authorities across Scotland who very generously found time in their busy schedules to help us with this study. Disclaimer: All views and any errors contained in this report are the responsibility of the authors. The views expressed should not be assumed to be those of Crisis or of any of the key informants who assisted with this work. Crisis head office 66 Commercial Street London E1 6LT Tel: 0300 636 1967 Fax: 0300 636 2012 www.crisis.org.uk © Crisis 2012 ISBN 978-1-899257-82-9 Crisis UK (trading as Crisis). Registered Charity Numbers: E&W1082947, SC040094. Company Number: 4024938 iii Contents Figures and tables ....................................................................................................................... iv Acronyms ................................................................................................................................... vi Foreword ....................................................................................................................................vii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................viii 1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................1 1.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................1 1.2 Definition of homelessness ...................................................................................................1 1.3 Research focus and methods ...............................................................................................2 1.4 Structure of report .................................................................................................................2 2. The historical and international context for homelessness in Scotland ........................4 2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................4 2.2 A recent history of homelessness in Scotland: the post-devolution ‘radical divergence’ ...4 2.3 The international context.....................................................................................................11 2.4 Causation and homelessness ............................................................................................12 2.5 Key points ..........................................................................................................................16 3. Economic factors that may impact on homelessness in Scotland .............................18 3.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................18 3.2 Post-2007 economic context .............................................................................................18 3.3 The Scottish economy ........................................................................................................20 3.4 Post-2007 housing market downturn .................................................................................21 3.5 House building, household growth and housing supply .....................................................25 3.6 Impact of the post-2007 economic and housing market downturn ...................................27 3.7 Key points ...........................................................................................................................33 4. Coalition and Scottish Government policies potentially impacting on homelessness . 34 4.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................34 4.2 Homelessness policies in Scotland ....................................................................................34 4.3 The impact of UK-wide welfare reforms in Scotland ..........................................................37 4.4 Housing policies in Scotland ...............................................................................................51 4.5 Key points ...........................................................................................................................55 5. Baseline for homelessness in 2012 ................................................................................57 5.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................57 5.2 Rough sleeping ...................................................................................................................57 5.3 Single homelessness ..........................................................................................................58 5.4 Statutory homelessness ......................................................................................................59 5.5 Hidden homelessness .........................................................................................................67 5.6 Overall prevalence and distribution of homelessness in Scotland .....................................76 5.7 Key points ..........................................................................................................................78 6. Conclusions and future monitoring .................................................................................80 Appendix 1 ................................................................................................................................ 84 Appendix 2 ................................................................................................................................ 86 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 88 iv The homelessness monitor: Scotland 2012 Tables and figures Chapter 3 Figure 3.1: Two years of economic standstill delays recovery ................................................18 Figure 3.2: Recession in Scotland closely follows UK pattern ................................................19 Figure 3.3: Workplace employment in Scotland in 2010 .........................................................20 Figure 3.4: Housing market affordability in Scotland ..............................................................22 Figure 3.5: Decline in low-deposit mortgages for first-time buyers ........................................22
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