SCOTLAND’S POPULATION 2009 The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends 155th Edition A National Statistics publication for Scotland. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. (Laid before the Scottish Parliament pursuant to Section 1(4) of the Registration of Births, Deaths and Marriages (Scotland) Act 1965) SG/2010/95 Published 6 August 2010 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 2 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE REGISTRAR GENERAL of BIRTHS, DEATHS AND MARRIAGES for SCOTLAND 2009 155th Edition To Scottish Ministers I am pleased to let you have my Annual Report for the year 2009, which will be laid before the Scottish Parliament pursuant to Section 1(4) of the Registration of Births, Deaths and Marriages (Scotland) Act 1965. Duncan Macniven Registrar General for Scotland 6 August 2010 3 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 4 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 CONTENTS Page Introduction 7 Important Points 9 Chapter 1 Population 15 Chapter 2 Births 25 Chapter 3 Deaths 32 Chapter 4 Life Expectancy 45 Chapter 5 Migration 53 Chapter 6 Marriages and Civil Partnerships 62 Chapter 7 Divorces and Dissolutions 66 Chapter 8 Adoptions and Gender Recognition 68 Chapter 9 Households and Housing 69 Chapter 10 Very Near the Truth: a history of the census in 77 Scotland Appendix 1 Summary Tables 108 Appendix 2 Notes & Definitions 111 Notes on Statistical Publications 117 5 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 6 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 Introduction Scotland’s economy was in recession from the summer of 2008 to the autumn of 2009. If the recession has had an effect on Scotland’s total population, the figures in this report should make it clear because it covers the calendar year 2009. There is actually little, if any, evidence that the recession has affected Scotland’s total population. There were just under 1,000 fewer births in 2009 than in 2008 – but there were still 1,200 more births in 2009 than in 2007. The steady decline in the number of deaths continued. Almost 22,000 more people moved to Scotland than left it in 2008/2009, slightly more than in the previous year. This was the third-highest movement of people into Scotland since current records began 60 years ago. So, despite the recession, people are finding Scotland an attractive place to live and to raise children. But there is another side to the story. While the number of deaths has continued to fall and life expectancy has increased in every local authority area, the life expectancy of men and women in Scotland is still lower than the life expectancy of people in the rest of the UK and the European Union (except the East European member states). And there are major inequalities of life expectancy within Scotland. For the average man in north and east Glasgow, life expectancy is eight years shorter than the average in neighbouring East Dunbartonshire. For women, the difference is around six years. The next census, which will create a complete picture of Scotland’s society, will provide important information that will help us to work out the reasons for the relatively poor life expectancy in Scotland. The Scottish Parliament has approved 27 March 2011 as the date of the 2011 Census, the first census since 2001. To mark both the 10-year milestone and the fifteenth census for which the Registrar General for Scotland has been responsible, the ‘special subject’ chapter of this year’s report is a history of the census in Scotland. Scotland was the first part of Britain to carry out a census. This was done in the mid-1750s, and showed a population of 1,265,380. The first regular census was in 1801, introduced because of the effect of an increasing population on food production, immigration and colonisation. It set the population at 1,559,068. In 1861, William Pitt Dundas (the first Scottish Registrar General) took on responsibility for the census, and the General Register Office for Scotland has taken a census every decade since then (except in 1941, because of the Second World War). Over that time, the census has become steadily more detailed and more valuable. Chapter 10 of this report tells of the changes in each census, up to 2001. We are well-prepared to carry out a highly accurate count of Scotland’s population, and its social characteristics, next year. 7 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 8 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 Important points Population The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2009 was 5,194,000. The population of Scotland grew by around 25,500 in the 12 months between 1 July 2008 and 30 June 2009, an increase of 0.5%. The increase in the population in the 12 months between 1 July 2008 and 30 June 2009 was mainly due to: • 21,700 more people coming to Scotland than leaving; and • 4,585 more births than deaths. The age of the population of Scotland was as follows. • 18% of people were aged under 16. • 63% of people were of working age. • 20% of people were of pensionable age. Scotland’s population has been fairly stable over the past 50 years. It peaked at 5.24 million in 1974 before falling to 5.05 million in 2002. It then increased each year to reach 5.19 million in 2009. The increase has mainly been the result of more people moving to Scotland than leaving. There are differences in the changes in the population across Scotland. In the 10 years from 1999 to 2009, the council areas which had the highest population increases and reductions were as follows. • West Lothian – up 10% • East Lothian – up 9% • Perth and Kinross – up 8% • Inverclyde – down 6% • Eilean Siar, East Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire – down 4% In the 10 years from 1999 to 2009, the population grew older. The number of children under 16 reduced by 8% and the number of people aged 75 and over increased by 14%. Current projections (estimates for future years largely based on past trends) suggest that the population of Scotland will rise to 5.54 million by 2033 and that the population will age significantly, with the number of people aged 60 and over increasing by 50%, from 1.17 million to 1.75 million. 9 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 Migration (people moving into and out of the country) Since the 1950s, more people have tended to leave Scotland than move here. However, since 2002, this has changed. In the year to 30 June 2009, the number of people moving to Scotland from other parts of the UK, and out of Scotland to other parts of the UK were as follows. • 45,400 people came to Scotland from the rest of the UK. • 41,300 people left Scotland for other parts of the UK. This migration of people increased the population by around 4,100 people. In the year to 30 June 2009, the number of people moving to Scotland from overseas, and out of Scotland to go overseas were as follows. • 42,700 people came to Scotland from overseas. • 25,200 people left Scotland to go overseas. This migration of people increased the population by around 17,500 people – a record high. Most people moving to and from Scotland are young – between 16 and 34. As a result of people moving to and from the rest of the UK, Scotland’s population was boosted for every broad age group. Moves to and from overseas countries meant that the numbers of people in every age group up to 35 increased. Births There were 59,046 births registered in Scotland in 2009. There were 995 (2%) fewer births in 2009 than in 2008. The number of births had increased in each of the previous six years. The average age of mothers has increased from 27.4 in 1991 to 29.4 in 2009. Similarly, the average age of fathers has increased from 30 in 1991 to 32.3 in 2009. The percentage of babies born to unmarried couples has been rising steadily for several years. In 2009 it was slightly more than 50% for Scotland as a whole. 86% of mothers who gave birth in Scotland in 2009 were born in the UK, including 76% who were born in Scotland. 6% of mothers had been born in the European Union (EU), including 3.5% from the countries which joined the EU in 2004 (such as Poland). For 14% of births in 2009 neither parent was born in Scotland (compared to 9% in 2003) and for 9% of births neither parent was born in the UK (compared to 3% in 2003). 10 General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2010 Deaths There were 53,856 deaths registered in Scotland in 2009. The number of deaths each year has slowly reduced over the past 30 years. The total for 2009 was the lowest since 1855 (when civil registration was introduced). The main causes of deaths were: • cancer, which caused 15,187 deaths (28% of all deaths); • ischaemic (coronary) heart disease, which caused 8,274 deaths (15% of all deaths); • respiratory system diseases (such as pneumonia), which caused 7,125 of deaths (13% of all deaths); and • cerebrovascular disease (stroke), which caused 4,906 deaths (9% of all deaths).