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China's Long March to Gas Price Freedom

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China's Long March to Gas Price Freedom November 2018 China’s Long March to Gas Price Freedom: Price Reform in the People’s Republic OIES PAPER: NG138 Stephen O’Sullivan Senior Visiting Research Fellow, OIES The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2018 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN: 978-1-78467-123-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26889/9781784671235 i China’s Long March to Gas Price Freedom – November 2018 Preface The outlook for the Chinese gas market is one of the biggest questions in the global gas market today but understanding the detailed matrix of interlinking economic and political catalysts which will determine the future of demand and sources of supply is a complex job. In this extensive report Stephen O’Sullivan provides a detailed review of the key issues involved, in particular through the lens of gas pricing. This viewpoint provides an interesting way to analyse the dichotomies in the Chinese gas sector, as the government tries to incentivise demand growth and coal to gas switching with a low price while also attempting to increase domestic production with a high price. In addition, the question of state companies losing money on imports when highly priced LNG must be sold into a market with lower regulated prices remains a contentious issue. This report analyses how the Beijing authorities have attempted to manage this dilemma using regulated prices while also attempting to provide a link to international markets, but also identifies a number of other themes that will be crucial to the future of gas demand growth in the country. While we would hesitate to claim that this research provides answers to the multitude of questions involved, it does offer an important foundation for understanding the manifold complexities of the Chinese gas sector. James Henderson Director, Natural Gas Programme Oxford Institute for Energy Studies ii China’s Long March to Gas Price Freedom – November 2018 Contents Preface .......................................................................................................................................................... ii Contents ....................................................................................................................................................... iii Figures ......................................................................................................................................................... iv Tables ........................................................................................................................................................... iv Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................ v Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 6 1. Overall Chinese gas sector reform process .......................................................................................... 8 1.1 Five-Year Energy Plan .......................................................................................................................... 8 1.2 Increasing gas use to reduce pollution ................................................................................................. 8 1.3 Infrastructure access ........................................................................................................................... 16 1.4 Upstream and downstream reform ..................................................................................................... 18 1.5 Development of gas hubs ................................................................................................................... 18 1.6 The challenge from renewables .......................................................................................................... 20 2. The need for gas price reform in China ............................................................................................... 22 2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 22 2.2 Industry profitability ............................................................................................................................. 23 2.3 Production outlook .............................................................................................................................. 26 2.4 Import dependency ............................................................................................................................. 29 2.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 36 3. China’s gas price reform process ........................................................................................................ 37 3.1 Early reform steps – modest price rises .............................................................................................. 37 3.2 Mid-2000s reform – a simplified approach .......................................................................................... 38 3.3 2011 – the move to netback pricing .................................................................................................... 38 3.4 2013 – two-tier pricing ......................................................................................................................... 39 3.5 Recent implementation of the fundamental principles ........................................................................ 40 July 2013 ............................................................................................................................................... 41 September 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 41 April 2015 .............................................................................................................................................. 41 November 2015 ..................................................................................................................................... 42 September 2017 .................................................................................................................................... 43 June 2018 .............................................................................................................................................. 46 3.6 Changes to end-user prices ................................................................................................................ 47 3.7 Residential prices ................................................................................................................................ 49 3.8 Seasonal pricing ................................................................................................................................. 53 3.9 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 57 4. How China’s gas pricing policy influences demand .......................................................................... 58 4.1 The impact of pricing on demand ........................................................................................................ 58 4.2 Recent Chinese gas demand growth .................................................................................................. 60 2017 outturn .......................................................................................................................................... 60 2018 outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 60 4.3 The longer-term outlook for Chinese gas demand .............................................................................. 63 4.4 What to look out for ............................................................................................................................. 66 4.5 Demand and price seasonality ............................................................................................................ 67 4.6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 68 5. Regional price and demand variations ................................................................................................ 69 5.1 Regional pricing variations .................................................................................................................. 69 5.2 Provincial demand and supply/demand balances ............................................................................... 71 5.3 GDP and consumers’ ability to pay ....................................................................................................
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