Review of Methodologies Applied for the Assessment of Employment and Social Impacts (VC/2008/0303)
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Review of Methodologies applied for the assessment of employment and social impacts (VC/2008/0303) Final Report Client: DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities of the European Commission In collaboration with: Brussels, 15th January 2010 Contact address: ECORYS Brussels NV Rue Joseph II, no.9 B-1000 Brussels Belgium T: + 32 2 743 89 49 F: + 32 2 732 71 11 E: [email protected] Legal address: ECORYS Nederland BV P.O. Box 4175 3006 AD Rotterdam Watermanweg 44 3067 GG Rotterdam The Netherlands Registration no. 24316726 Fortis Bank no. 24.01.51.151 IBAN NL14 FTSB 0240 1511 51 BIC FTSBNL2R VAT no. NL8080.28.741.B.08 This report has been supported by the European Community Programme for Employment and Social Solidarity (2007-2013) – PROGRESS - managed by the Directorate General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal opportunities. This programme was established to financially support the implementation of the objectives of the European Union in the employment and social affairs area, as set out in the Social Agenda, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Lisbon Strategy goals in these fields. The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appropriate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and EU candidate and pre-candidate countries. PROGRESS mission is to strengthen the EU contribution in support of Member States' commitments and efforts to create more and better jobs and to build a more cohesive society. To that effect, PROGRESS will be instrumental in: • providing analysis and policy advice on PROGRESS policy areas; • monitoring and reporting on the implementation of EU legislation and policies in PROGRESS policy areas; • promoting policy transfer, learning and support among Member States on EU objectives and priorities; and • relaying the views of the stakeholders and society at large For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/progress/index_en.html The information contained in this report does not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission. Table of contents Executive Summary i 0.1 Introduction i 0.1 Key findings ii 0.2 A Roadmap for assessing redistributive and regional employment impacts iii 0.1.1 Step 1: Scoping of impacts v 0.1.2 Step 2: Collecting additional evidence v 0.1.3 Step 3A: Methods for assessing redistributive effects vi 0.1.4 Step 3B: Methods for assessing regional employment effects viii 0.3 Recommendations ix PART A: PROCESS AND METHODS 1 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Context and purpose of this report 3 1.2 Key dimensions of social impact assessment 5 1.3 A roadmap for assessing regional employment and redistributive effects 7 1.4 Structure of this report 13 2 Step 1: Scoping of impact 15 2.1 The role of initial scoping 15 2.2 Causal Chain Analysis 16 2.2.1 What is causal chain analysis? 16 2.2.2 Method example I: ESF in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 17 2.2.3 Method example II: Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment 19 2.2.4 Applicability at EU level 21 3 Step 2: Collecting additional evidence 23 3.1 Measurability, evidence and data issues 23 3.1.1 Measurability 23 3.1.2 Data availability 24 3.2 Qualitative approaches and surveys 26 3.3 (Quasi-)experimental approaches: a realistic option? 27 3.3.1 What are "experimental" and "quasi-experimental" designs? 27 3.3.2 Method example: Quasi-experimental design in the ex-ante evaluation of the rSa in France 30 3.3.3 Applicability at EU level 35 4 Step 3A: Assessing redistributive effects 37 4.1 Model family analysis 38 4.1.1 What is "Model family" analysis? 38 4.1.2 Method example I: Tax-benefit calculations 39 4.1.3 Method example II: Theoretical pension replacement rates 41 4.1.4 Applicability at EU level 41 4.2 Static micro-simulation models 42 4.2.1 What are static micro-simulation models? 42 4.2.2 Method example: EUROMOD 43 4.2.3 Applicability at EU level 45 4.3 Dynamic micro-simulation models 46 4.3.1 What are dynamic micro-simulation models? 46 4.3.2 Method example: The MICROS model 48 4.3.3 Applicability at EU level 49 4.4 Micro-simulation models combined with CGE models 49 4.4.1 What are micro-simulation models combined with CGE models? 49 4.4.2 Method example: the STSM-PACE-L model 50 4.4.3 Applicability at EU level 53 4.5 Micro-simulation models with spatial analysis 53 4.5.1 What are dynamic spatial micro-simulation models? 53 4.5.2 Method example: The SVERIGE model 53 4.5.3 Applicability at EU level 55 5 Step 3B: Assessing regional employment effects 57 5.1 Meso-level quantitative methods for ex-ante impact analysis 58 5.1.1 Input-output models 58 5.1.2 SAM-Leontief models 61 5.1.3 Partial equilibrium models 62 5.2 Regional CGE models 63 5.2.1 What are regional CGE Models? 63 5.2.2 Method example: MaMor2 Model (Poland) 63 5.2.3 Method example: VERM (Finland) 67 5.2.4 Method example: RegFin (Finland) 70 5.2.5 Method example: RAEM Model (Netherlands) 73 5.2.6 Applicability of CGE models at EU level 77 5.3 Macro-econometric models 78 5.3.1 What are macro-econometric models? 78 5.3.2 Method example: HERMES (Ireland) 78 5.3.3 Method example: REMI-NEI Model (The Netherlands) 82 5.3.4 Applicability of macro-econometric models at EU level 87 6 Conclusions and recommendations 89 6.1 Conclusions 89 6.2 Recommendations 90 PART B – APPLYING THE METHODS 93 7 TRANSPORT: Further liberalisation of the aviation ground handling market 95 7.1 Introduction 95 7.2 A. Identification of the methods / models 95 7.2.1 Problems to be addressed 95 7.2.2 Key aspects of policy 96 7.2.3 Objectives and constraints 98 7.2.4 Identification of direct impacts 99 7.2.5 Identification of redistributive and regional employment impacts 102 7.2.6 Focus for assessing redistributive and regional employment impacts 103 7.2.7 Methods to be considered 104 7.3 B. Testing results 106 7.3.1 Assessment of method 1: REMI-NEI model 106 7.3.2 Assessment of method 2: CGE Models 108 7.4 C. Conclusions 114 8 SOCIAL AFFAIRS: Workfare - a solution to the welfare trap? 117 8.1 Introduction 117 8.2 A. Identification of methods / models 117 8.2.1 Problems to be addressed 117 8.2.2 Key aspects of policy 119 8.2.3 Objectives and constraints 119 8.2.4 Identification of direct impacts 120 8.2.5 Identification of redistributive and regional employment impacts 120 8.2.6 Focus for assessing redistributive and regional employment impacts 120 8.2.7 Methods to be considered 121 8.3 B. Testing results 121 8.3.1 Assessment of micro-simulation model for individual labour supply 121 8.3.2 Assessment of the social experiments 124 8.4 C. Conclusions 126 8.5 References 126 9 ENERGY – Tighter requirements for the energy efficiency of buildings 129 9.1 Introduction 129 9.2 A. Identification of the methods / models 129 9.2.1 Problems to be addressed 129 9.2.2 Key aspects of policy 130 9.2.3 Objectives and constraints 132 9.2.4 Identification of direct and indirect impacts 134 9.2.5 Focus for assessing redistributive and regional employment impacts 138 9.2.6 Methods to be considered 140 9.3 B. Testing results 141 9.3.1 Assessment of method 1: Model family analysis 141 9.3.2 Assessment of method 2: Static micro simulation 144 9.3.3 Assessment of method 3: Dynamic micro simulation 145 9.4 C. Conclusions 146 PART C – COUNTRY REVIEWS 149 10 Country Reviews 151 10.1 Austria 151 10.1.1 Highlights on impact assessment practices 151 10.1.2 Methodological response 152 10.2 Finland 152 10.2.1 Highlights from IA practice 152 10.2.2 Methodological response 154 10.3 France 155 10.3.1 Highlights from IA practice 155 10.3.2 Methodological response 156 10.4 Germany 158 10.4.1 Highlights from IA practice 158 10.4.2 Methodological response 159 10.5 Ireland 160 10.5.1 Highlights from IA practice 160 10.5.2 Methodological response 161 10.6 Italy 163 10.6.1 Highlights from IA practice 163 10.6.2 Methodological response 164 10.7 The Netherlands 165 10.7.1 Highlights from IA practice 165 10.7.2 Methodological response 167 10.8 Poland 170 4.2.10 Highlights from IA practice 170 10.8.1 Methodological response 174 10.9 Spain 178 10.9.1 Highlights from IA practice 178 10.9.2 Methodological response 179 10.10 United Kingdom 183 10.10.1 Highlights from IA practice 183 10.10.2 Methodological response 185 ANNEX 1: SUMMARY OF METHODS AND MODELS 189 ANNEX 2: GLOSSARY OF TERMS 193 Executive Summary 0.1 Introduction Impact Assessment (IA), as defined by the European Commission, involves a set of logical steps to be followed when preparing policy proposals. It is a process that prepares evidence for political decision-makers concerning the advantages and disadvantages of possible policy options based on an assessment of their potential impacts1. This report focuses on one aspect of the IA process: the assessment of the likely social impacts of the policy options proposed at EU level.