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Future of Finance Fintech’S Brazil Moment May 12, 2017 Future of Finance Fintech’s Brazil Moment Equity Research Brazil’s overbranched banking system is ripe for disruption by new entrants The global trend travels to Brazil Carlos G. Macedo “Fintechs,” or companies that leverage technology to provide financial (212) 902-7211 [email protected] services, are starting to emerge in Brazil, bringing with them the potential to Goldman Sachs and Co. LLC disrupt the country’s branch-dependent market. In this report, we survey the ecosystem and size the opportunity for new entrants, while also exploring Marcelo Cintra the likely response and implications for incumbents. +55(11)3371-0833 [email protected] Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Why is Brazil different from other markets? Steven Goncalves While fintech disruption has proven a common trend in many countries, we (212) 902-4175 [email protected] believe the Brazilian financial system is particularly susceptible. The banking Goldman Sachs and Co. LLC market is concentrated relative to global standards, and penetration, by most metrics, lags developed peers especially in lower income classes. Nelson Catala (801) 884-4957 [email protected] Prices for financial services and spreads for loans are also among the Goldman Sachs and Co. LLC highest in the world. We believe this unique market structure positions fintechs to have a larger impact in Brazil than in other developed markets. Why are fintechs becoming more relevant now? Several trends are converging that are likely to boost fintechs’ relevance. Recent mergers have concentrated the financial system further, increasing the appeal for new entrants. Smartphones and internet access—key delivery mechanisms for fintech—are also increasing rapidly as Brazil’s tech-savvy generation comes of age. We see fintechs taking an increasing share of Future of Finance series mind against this backdrop, even if their share of wallet starts out small. This report is the latest in our 200+ fintechs with a potential revenue pool of R$75 billion series exploring the technology, We identify a potential revenue pool of R$75 billion over 10 years for the regulation and new business more than 200 fintechs currently operating in Brazil. We examine several models changing the shape of models for fintech services, with a special focus on credit card company finance, and the implications for NuBank and an interview with digital bank Banco Original. We also take a consumers and the industry. See high-level look at increased venture capital activity in the space. inside for more. Incumbents to respond with IT investment, efficiency gains We expect large Brazilian banks to respond to fintechs in part by copying the disruptive products but more so by increasing IT investment for greater operational efficiency. While incumbents are still likely to lose share to fintechs long-term, we see benefits to this investment. We believe they can improve ROE 300-600 bp by shifting 50% of their clients to digital platforms. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. May 12, 2017 Brazil: Financial Services Contents PM Summary: The emergence of the Brazilian fintechs… and what it means to banks and other financials 3 Why will the path in Brazil be different? Market concentration is high, penetration is limited, pricing is expensive 8 Concentration of the financial services market: Creating opportunities as barriers to entry are overcome 8 Penetration: Mixed, but with much room for improvement 10 Pricing: Expensive products, more expensive loan rates 12 Why will fintechs make a difference now? Convergence of concentration, technology and economic cycle 15 Market concentration: Increasing as mergers come through 15 Technology creating opportunity: Smartphones and internet access feeding demographics 16 Economic recovery: Emerging from a deep dive 18 Interview with Banco Original 21 Canvassing fintechs: 200 strong and growing 22 NuBank: Becoming a force in credit cards 25 What will happen to banks? Moving from bricks to clicks 26 Copycat: Mimicking fintech solutions 26 Breaking the traditional model: Drive to virtual banking 27 Interview with Itaú Unibanco 29 Our view of the outcome: A more efficient – and more diverse – financial sector 30 Risks: Regulation, reaction, growth 32 Appendix: Fintech sector breakdown 34 Banking services 34 Payments 35 Personal finance management 36 Lending 37 Investments, savings, wealth management, trading 38 Insurance 39 Venture Capital Horizons Inside: Brazil fintech 40 Rating, pricing and price target information 42 Disclosure Appendix 43 The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of May 11, 2017. Note: Third party brands used in this document are the property of their respective owners, and are used here for informational purposes only. The use of such brands should not be viewed as an endorsement, affiliation or sponsorship by or for Goldman Sachs or any of its products/services. Technology, regulation and new business models are changing the shape of finance. From shadow banks to new tech platforms, an evolving class of competitors is emerging to go after the profit pools of traditional lenders and institutions. In a series of reports on the Future of Finance, we explore what these trends mean for how companies and consumers bank, lend, borrow and pay. The Rise of the New Shadow Bank, March 3, 2015 Redefining the ‘Way We Pay’ in the Next Decade, March 10, 2015 The Socialization of Finance, March 13, 2015 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 May 12, 2017 Brazil: Financial Services PM Summary: The emergence of the Brazilian fintechs… and what it means to banks and other financials Much as in other countries around the world, fintechs (companies that leverage technology to provide financial services) are starting to emerge in Brazil. They are spurred by increasingly favorable conditions, which should make them progressively more relevant to investors focusing on the financial sector. In this report, we examine how this transition will take place, why it will be different from those in more developed markets, why we see now as a starting point and how incumbents will respond. We also canvass the segments in which we see most fintech activity. With time, we see fintechs capturing a relevant share of the financial services market, and being one of the main drivers of growth and penetration, as well as an agent to lower spreads and fees. Given the dynamics of the Brazilian market (concentration, penetration and pricing) we see this evolution happening differently from what has occurred in other markets, both developed and developing. In our view, the rise of fintechs is likely to spur incumbent banks to invest heavily in IT, reducing costs and improving efficiency. Even if in the short term fintechs are more likely to grab share of mind than share of wallet, we see their impact starting now. Why is Brazil different? Market concentration, limited penetration and pricing The impact of disruption in any market depends, in large part, on the shape of that market. In Brazil, we see conditions in place for technology-driven disruption to have a larger impact than in some developed markets, such as: An oligopolistic market structure. The top five banks in Brazil (excluding the development banks) hold 84% of the total loans in the system. The Herfindahl- Hirschman market concentration index for Brazil is in the top half of the range when compared to markets in other countries. This concentration is particularly evident in branch banking, where the top five banks have 90% of the branches. With the traditional distribution of financial services being disrupted by new technologies, thus breaking down barriers to entry, large banks in Brazil would seem to be more vulnerable to new entrants than peers in other countries. Limited penetration, especially in low income. Penetration of banking services in Brazil is low compared to global standards, though relatively close to peers in the same region and at the same development level. Penetration is lower, even relative to peers, when considering the usage of online/mobile means to make financial transactions. We see barriers to penetration arising from culture, regulation and market structure, all of which could be overcome by penetration of technology and the aging/education of the population. Expensive pricing for loans, other financial services. Interest rates on loans in Brazil are among the highest in the world, and fees for services also are expensive by comparison to those charged by banks for similar services in similar countries. We believe the problem is one of limited information, which increases risk and reduces the incentives for new competition. We see new technology helping to make information more widely available for bank clients and potential entrants, ultimately driving pricing downwards. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 Fintech Spotlights Inside The e-banking startup The bankless lender The evolving incumbent Banco Original (p. 21) NuBank (p. 25) Itaú Unibanco (p. 29) Q&A, Guilherme Stocco Filho, Director of Company vignette Q&A, Livia Martines Chanes, Director of Digital Innovation Channels, User Experience & CRM analytics The model: Small traditional wholesale The model: The simple, free credit card The model: Leading bank in Brazil that has bank that migrated to a full-service virtual startup partnering with banks to expand invested heavily in IT to better serve its retail model in 2015.
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