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Summary of Findings Silo Summaries REPORT David Franklin, [email protected], 215.493.4104 PayPal Well Positioned Once Consumers Take to Mobile Payments in Stores Companies: AAPL, AMZN, AXP, DFS, DNKN, EBAY, EPA:ING, GOOG, GRPN, INTU, MA, PAY, SBUX, V March 1, 2013 Research Question: Will an increased retail presence and recent partnerships spur consumer utilization of and growth for PayPal’s offline and mobile payment strategies? Silo Summaries Summary of Findings 1) MERCHANTS All Fourteen merchants, PayPal (eBay Inc./EBAY) competitors These three merchants representing more than 4,390 stores and industry specialists said PayPal‟s partnerships with 23 either already accept or are in the process of integrating PayPal as an in-store payment option. Consumers‟ use of national retailers and Discover Financial Services (DFS) will PayPal or other mobile payment options is limited. However, expand the use of its mobile and offline options for in-store all three sources expect PayPal transactions to increase payments. during the next two years as in-store mobile payments become more mainstream. PayPal needs to address the lack Consumers‟ in-store use of alternative payment options is very of consumer awareness, the need for an NFC solution, and limited. Adoption will not become widespread for two to five its customer service. Competition is expected from Google years. Wallet and Apple. Lack of consumer awareness, the absence of rewards points or 2) PAYPAL COMPETITORS airline miles, minimal NFC capability, and a crowded and Six of these seven sources cited PayPal‟s partnerships with confusing market have slowed the adoption and use of PayPal retailers and Discover as advantages, but now it must and other mobile payment options. convince consumers to pay in stores through their PayPal accounts rather than through other methods that may offer PayPal faces stiff competition in securing a piece of the mobile rewards. PayPal will face considerable competition from payment market, including from banks, credit card companies, credit card companies, telecom companies, Intuit, Square, Apple Inc. (AAPL), Google Inc.‟s (GOOG) Google Wallet, Isis, Apple and the Merchant Consumer Exchange, or MCX. Square Inc., SCVNGR Inc.‟s LevelUp, Ingenico S.A.‟s (EPA:ING) Mobile payment adoption is expected to grow in two to five RoamPay and the upcoming Merchant Consumer Exchange. years. Merchant sources are embracing mobile point-of-sale (POS) 3) INDUSTRY SPECIALISTS technology in order to make shopping and purchases easier, All four sources view PayPal‟s retailer and Discover more interesting and more efficient. Two of four retailer sources partnerships as an advantage. PayPal also benefits from have provided tablets for employees to perform mobile in-store strong brand recognition and consumer trust. Roadblocks to checkouts and to improve inventory and store layout. in-store PayPal use include the crowded alternative payment marketplace, the lack of NFC capability, and consumers‟ In response to a secondary source, Anuj Nayar, PayPal‟s senior slow adoption of the technology. Adoption is expected to director of communications, said the company had yet to become widespread during the next three to five years. The heavily promote in-store payments to its account holders. He list of competitors is long and includes Apple, Google Wallet, added that PayPal spent last year building the merchant side of Isis, LevelUp, MCX, Square, credit card companies and its business and running pilots. banks. Retailers’ Consumers’ 4) CONSUMERS WITH PAYPAL ACCOUNTS Adoption 2– Use of Mobile Use of Mobile Only two of these five sources have used their PayPal 5 Years Out Payments Payments accounts to make in-store payments, and one has stopped PayPal usage in stores because she prefers the incentives offered by her credit card companies. Mobile payments are Merchants expected to become widespread in two to five years. Consumers want and value simplicity, value-add rewards like Competitors airline miles, and security. Competition for mobile payments is expected from Square, RoamPay, Google Wallet, credit cards and banks. Industry Specialists 5) ONLINE CONSUMER SURVEY USING SURVEYMONKEY Consumers with Blueshift conducted an online survey of 287 PayPal account PayPal Accounts holders. Only one third of the account holders knew that PayPal is an accepted form of payment in stores and only 15 of those account holders have made an in-store payment with PayPal. 1 1 Ferry Building, Suite 255, San Francisco, CA 94111 | www.blueshiftideas.com eBay Inc.’s PayPal Background Blueshift has been covering eBay‟s PayPal for more than three years. Our July 3, 2012, report found that a VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY) partnership was helping PayPal to establish itself as a payment option in brick-and-mortar stores. Also, our March 1 Whisper revealed that PayPal had continued to push through its mobile and offline payment initiatives and had secured more partnerships, totaling 23 national retailers and including Discover. However, sources were uncertain whether consumers‟ in- store use of mobile payments, including PayPal‟s solution, would gain traction. CURRENT RESEARCH In this next study, Blueshift assessed whether PayPal‟s deals with 23 national retailers and Discover will hasten consumers‟ use of their PayPal accounts in stores and lead to continued transaction and revenue growth for PayPal. We employed our pattern mining approach to establish sources in six independent silos: 1) Merchants (3) 2) PayPal competitors (7) 3) Industry specialists (4) 4) Consumers with PayPal accounts (5) 5) Online survey (287 PayPal account holders) 6) Secondary sources (6) We interviewed 19 primary sources, including seven repeat sources, and identified six of the most relevant secondary sources focused on the alternative and mobile payment industries. Next Steps Blueshift will monitor PayPal‟s efforts to push its offline and mobile payment options into more stores and to promote retailer acceptance and consumer use. We also will research adoption and use of PayPal in stores outside of the United States. Silos 1) MERCHANTS These three merchants representing more than 4,390 stores either already accept or are in the process of integrating PayPal as an in-store payment option. Consumers‟ use of PayPal or other mobile payment options is limited. One source with 190 stores said 10% or less of payments are made via PayPal. However, all three sources expect PayPal transactions to increase during the next two years as in-store mobile payments become more mainstream. Merchants are being proactive in streamlining the shopping experience and payment transaction. One source said associates use Windows tablets in mobile checkouts. PayPal‟s strengths include its “cool factor,” security, ease of use, popularity, Discover partnership, and overall merchant and consumer trust. PayPal needs to address the lack of consumer awareness, the need for an NFC solution, and its customer service. Competition is expected from Google Wallet and Apple. Senior vice president for an omnichannel ecommerce retailer Allowing payment through PayPal, Google Wallet and other alternative methods attracts a “young, tech-savvy customer.” This retailer offers PayPal and Google Wallet, and is in the early stages of implementing Apple‟s Passbook. PayPal‟s Discover partnership will overcome the roadblock of needing updated POS equipment. The source said many companies hope to be the first to simplify the buying experience but added that consumer awareness remains low. “We haven‟t gone public with specific usage numbers. PayPal at POS is small but growing. We are also using Google Wallet and have deployed that through a significant portion of our stores.” . “This is a typical story as new channels and payment methods come on the marketplace. They offer competitive rates as they‟ve tried to build adoption, and we‟ve seen that as well from PayPal.” 2 1 Ferry Building, Suite 255, San Francisco, CA 94111 | www.blueshiftideas.com eBay Inc.’s PayPal . “We‟ve generally had a strategy of trying to be forward-looking on these kinds of methods, trying to be where are customers are. We cater to a We haven‟t gone public with younger, tech-savvy customer, and however they want to transact with us is important to us. We‟ve been aggressive in offers from a software specific usage numbers. PayPal and service side, as well as with VeriFone readers and NFC capability, at POS is small but growing. We so we‟re on the leading edge. As PayPal becomes more common, we are also using Google Wallet believe it will become more widespread with awareness and and have deployed that adoptions.” . “There are definitely PayPal fanatics who really love it, and PayPal will through a significant portion of tout the value that there are all your receipts in one place and there our stores. … But the biggest are ways merchants can promote offers through their channels. If barrier to adoption is just you‟re a user, it‟s a very straightforward means to pay.” awareness. “Part of the challenge is, if we weren‟t using the more state-of-the-art equipment, it would have been more challenging to leverage [PayPal] Senior VP capability. We‟re using the better POS equipment. That‟s again where Omnichannel Ecommerce Retailer it‟s important for them to get the Discover infrastructure in place, which eliminates some of those technical barriers.” . “Obviously, the infrastructure requirements that used to exist prior to the Discover announcement is one. But the biggest barrier to adoption is just awareness. Even in our case, we haven‟t put an enormous amount of energy into promoting PayPal or any other specific payment method; it‟s just one of the options offered. Consumers who have PayPal don‟t even realize they can pay with it. But again, with our customer being If we weren‟t using the more more „tech current,‟ we‟re seeing adoption rates ahead of the industry.” state-of-the-art equipment, it .
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