Virtual Conference
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Virtual Conference October 2020 Copy right © 2020 by S&P Global. All rights reserv ed What's On The Horizon For European Bank Ratings? Giles Edwards Senior Director Sector Lead - European Financial Institutions Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Rewind: To Our Spring 2020 Negative Rating Actions Eurozone and U.K. GDP to shrink by 7.3% and 6.5% in 2020 before rebounding by 5.6% and 6% in 2021. Ultra loose monetary policy, extensive fiscal support, and easing in bank capital and liquidity buffers would offer substantial support to the real economy. The policy responses taken by countries across Europe could well be less than totally successful and lead to higher leverage across the corporate/SME sector. Bank earnings, asset quality, and in some cases, capitalization, to weaken through end-2020 and into 2021. Funding to hold up well, not least given ample central bank injections. Wholesale markets to reopen but with wider spreads than before. 3 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Reflect: Mixed Signals From 2020H1 Results C C C 4 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Ponder: What to Make Of The Asset Quality Conundrum? 5 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Ponder: The Calm Before The Storm For Regulatory Capital ? Swift and pragmatic regulatory action… ➢ Buffer requirement easing – CCyBs cut to 0% – Art. 104a CRR reduced the CET1 requirement – OSII / SRBs cut ➢ Delay in tougher regulatory standards – Mortgage definition of default ➢ CRR Quick Fix and other relaxations – Phase-in of stage 1/2 ECL under IFRS 9 – Non-deduction of software assets – Relief on deduction of unrealised losses – Accelerated SME support factor …avoided an explosion in RWAs and capital deductions… …but this is largely a one-off effect. Ratios could weaken as NPLs rise and require extra provisions. 6 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Expectations: Unevenly Painful, Drawn Out, But Resilience Likely ) % ( Ratio 10.7 RAC 10.0 10.4 10.5 11.1 10.6 Ratings Global S&P C 7 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using A Negative Bias: But Not Only Driven By Covid-19 Positive Profitability • Banque Cantonale de Geneve M&A • Bankia Negative Economic Risk Economic+Industry Risk Capital and Risk Profile Ownership • RBI • BNP • Argenta • RCI Banque • Oberbank • BPCE • ABN • FCE Bank • OP Corporate Bank • Credit Mutuel • Rabobank • Iccrea • Credit Agricole • NIBC Profitability • UniCredit • Societe Generale • Abanca • Bankinter • Alior • Cooperative Banking Sector Germany • BBVA • Nordea • NLB Group • DekaBank Deut.Girozentrale • Banco de Sabadell • AIB Group • Barclays • Helaba • Banco Santander • BOI Group • Lloyds • Volkswagen Bank • Ibercaja • PTSB Group • NatWest • Deutsche Bank • Virgin Money Domestic Sovereign • KBC Group Resolution Strategy • Intesa + UBI • ING Group • Deutsche Pfandbriefbank • Mediobanca • Hamburg Commercial Bank Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Sep. 24, 2020, covers Top 100 European banks. Reflects only the primary source of upside / downside risk. For KBC and ING negative outlook relates only to the holding company. 8 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using The Battle For Profitability: Options Remain, But Few Quick Wins Industry collaboration / cost sharing Leverage Opening Banking / APIs Reduce client servicing / RM coverage Redouble cross-sell efforts Cut real estate footprint Add service charges Branch closures Raise new lending margins Simplify / automate front-to-back processes Pass on negative rates Product rationalization Reduced credit demand Expand risk & compliance Depressed client activity Expand collections / recoveries Pricing competition Invest in digitization New digital entrants Risk appetite 9 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Tech Disruption: A Risk For All, But Unequally So We assess the risk of disruption in retail banking as part of our bank ratings. Opportunities and threats from tech disruption relate to four factors: technology, regulation, industry, preferences. 10 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Unloved By Equity Investors: Banks Will Consolidate Further 11 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Sovereign-Bank Nexus: Deeper And More Complex 12% • 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% • 0% • C 12 Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Key Takeaways It’s too early to tell which banks will be resilient and which less so • • The pandemic event will accelerate secular change • . We already differentiate between the banks and expect further divergence • Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Thank You Data color order: Complimentary colors: Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off footer by using Copyright © 2020 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial ServicesLLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. 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