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Of Electric Companies in Maryland PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION OF MARYLAND TEN-YEAR PLAN (2008 – 2017) OF ELECTRIC COMPANIES IN MARYLAND Prepared for the Maryland Department of Natural Resources In compliance with Section 7-201 of the Maryland Public Utility Companies Article February 2009 State of Maryland Public Service Commission Douglas R. M. Nazarian, Chairman Harold D. Williams, Commissioner Allen M. Freifeld, Commissioner Susanne Brogan, Commissioner Lawrence Brenner, Commissioner Terry J. Romine Gregory V. Carmean Heather H. Polzin Executive Secretary Executive Director General Counsel 6 St. Paul Street Baltimore, MD 21202 Tel: (410) 767-8000 www.psc.state.md.us This report was drafted by the Commission’s Integrated Resource Planning Division (Michael Lee, Director) in cooperation with the Demand Side Management Division (Crissy Godfrey, Director), the Electricity Division (Phillip VanderHeyden, Director) and the Engineering Division (E. Frank Bender, Chief Engineer). Electric companies under the Commission’s jurisdiction provided most of the data in the Appendix. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................1 II. MARYLAND UTILITY AND PJM ZONAL LOAD FORECASTS ..........................3 A. Discussion....................................................................................................................... 3 III. GENERATION AND SUPPLY ADEQUACY IN MARYLAND................................5 A. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 5 B. Current Maryland Generation Profile and At-Risk Generation Units ............................ 6 C. Potential Generation Additions in Maryland .................................................................. 9 D. Maryland’s Healthy Air Act and Generation Upgrades ............................................... 12 E. CPCN Exemptions for Generation................................................................................ 13 F. Case No 9149, GAP RFPs, and Distributed Generation............................................... 15 G. Regional Reliability Summit......................................................................................... 16 H. The PJM Queue............................................................................................................. 17 IV. ENERGY TRANSMISSION IN PJM AND MARYLAND .......................................21 A. The Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Protocol........................................... 21 B. Proposals for New High Voltage Transmission Lines in PJM ..................................... 24 C. Transmission Congestion in Maryland ......................................................................... 28 V. DEMAND RESPONSE AND CONSERVATION AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY 31 A. Statutory Requirements................................................................................................. 31 B. Demand Response Initiatives........................................................................................ 32 C. Pre-Empower Conservation and Energy Efficiency..................................................... 35 D. EmPower Maryland Programs...................................................................................... 38 E. Mid-Atlantic Distributed Resources Initiative (“MADRI”) ......................................... 40 F. Advanced Metering Infrastructure / Smart Grid........................................................... 41 VI. ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND RENEWABLES ......................................44 A. Maryland’s Commission on Climate Change.............................................................. 44 B. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative ...................................................................... 47 C. The Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Program.................................................... 48 D. Solar Power Requirements in Maryland....................................................................... 52 E. Small Generators Interconnection................................................................................. 55 VII. ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION RELIABILITY IN MARYLAND ............................57 A. Electric Distribution Reliability Assurance .................................................................. 57 B. Distribution Reliability Issues....................................................................................... 60 C. Managing Distribution Outages.................................................................................... 63 D. Distribution Planning Process....................................................................................... 69 VIII. MARYLAND ELECTRICITY MARKETS................................................................74 A. Status of Retail Electric Choice in Maryland ............................................................... 74 B. Standard Offer Service.................................................................................................. 76 1 IX. PJM AND REGIONAL ENERGY ISSUES AND EVENTS .....................................78 A. Overview of PJM, OPSI, and Reliability First ............................................................. 78 B. PJM Summer Peak Events of 2007 and 2008............................................................... 80 C. Electricity Imports and Exports within PJM................................................................. 82 D. PJM’s Reliability Pricing Model .................................................................................. 84 E. Demand Response in PJM Markets .............................................................................. 89 X. FEDERAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY ISSUES IMPACTING MARYLAND....95 A. NERC Report to FERC on 2008 Summer Operations and Standards Compliance...... 95 APPENDIX...............................................................................................................................97 Table A-1: Utilities Providing Retail Electric Service in Maryland.................................... 98 Table A-2: Number of Customers by Customer Class (As of December 31, 2007) ........... 99 Table A-3: Sales by Customer Class (As of December 31, 2007; GWh).......................... 100 Table A-4: Typical Monthly Utility Bills in Maryland, (Winter 2008)............................. 101 Table A-5(a): System-Wide Peak Demand Forecast (Net of DSM Programs: MW)........ 102 Table A-5(b): Maryland Peak Demand Forecast (Net of DSM Programs; MW).............. 103 Table A-5(c): System-wide Peak Demand Forecast (Gross of DSM Programs; MW) ..... 104 Table A-5(d): Maryland Peak Demand Forecast (Gross of DSM Programs; MW) .......... 105 Table A-6(a): System-Wide Energy Sales Forecast (Net of DSM Programs; GWh)........ 106 Table A-6(b): Maryland Energy Sales Forecast (Net of DSM Programs; GWh).............. 107 Table A-7: Licensed Electric and Natural Gas Suppliers and Brokers /Aggregators........ 108 Table A-8: Transmission Enhancements by Service Area ................................................ 113 Table A-9: Renewable Projects Providing Capacity and Energy to Maryland Customers 115 Table A-11: Comparison of Residential Demand Response Programs in Maryland ........ 116 2 LIST OF MAPS, TABLES, AND CHARTS Map I.1: Maryland Utilities and their Service Territories in Maryland................................. 2 Table III.A.1: Generation by Owner, County, and Capacity................................................. 8 Table III.A.2: Maryland Generating Capacity Profile (as of January 1, 2009) ..................... 6 Table III.A.3: Maryland Electric Power Generation Profile.................................................. 7 Table III.B.1: New Generating Resources Planned for Construction in Maryland.............. 10 Table III.D.1: Emission Related Upgrades for Coal-fired Plants ......................................... 12 Table III.E.1: CPCN Exemptions Granted, Since October 2001.......................................... 15 Table VI.A.1: Maryland Commission on Climate Change Goals ....................................... 44 Table VI.A.3: Maryland Commission on Climate Change Recommended Actions ........... 45 Table VI.B.1: Annual Emissions Budget (2009 – 2014)..................................................... 47 Chart VI.C.1: MD RPS Certified Rated Capacity by State (as of 11/1/2008)...................... 51 Table VI.C.1: Updated RPS Percentage Requirements....................................................... 52 Table VI.D.1: Updated RPS Compliance Fee Schedule...................................................... 53 Table VIII.A.1: Electric Choice Enrollment in Maryland .................................................... 75 Map IX.A.1: PJM Zones....................................................................................................... 79 Table IX.B.1: Summer 2007 and Summer 2008 Coincident Peaks and Zone LMP ........... 81 Table IX.E.1: Maryland Electricity Net Imports, 2002-2006.............................................. 82 Table IX.E.2: State Electricity Imports for Year 2007 ........................................................ 83 Table IX.E.3: State Electricity Exports for Year 2007 ........................................................ 84 Table IX.F.1: Results for First Four RPM Transitional Auctions ....................................... 87 Table IX.F.2: Results for First RPM Regular Auction .......................................................
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