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Thinking Sustainability

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Thinking Sustainability ANALYSIS iStock-1214759696 For love of the game: (Re)Thinking Sustainability Aadil Omar HEAD OF EQUITY RESEARCH i KEY TAKE-AWAYS People naturally opt for sustainable choices when If people approach sustainability with the aim that choice is iterated over time: their intuitive of winning, there is an incentive to cheat. decisions are based on rewards in relation to This can lead to serious harm, as in the VW how sustainable an activity is. Short-termism “Dieselgate” scandal. Short-termism and self- usually has sub-optimal results. interest trumped sustainability. The spirit of sustainability is akin to an infinite The flood of money into “sustainable” game, where there are no winners or losers, investments now gives people an incentive to only ongoing interaction that benefits all sides. cheat by “greenwashing” or hyping their funds, This is opposed to a finite game which has exacerbated by the complexity of measuring rules, and participants have a short-term win/ sustainability. Investors need to be aware of Prudential Investment Managers © lose mindset. this risk. Consider this QUARTER 03 2021 Page 1 ANALYSIS FOR LOVE OF THE GAME: (RE)THINKING SUSTAINABILITY ear the word “sustainability” maintain at a certain rate over time. Hand you are likely to imagine the As far as the practicalities of life are whirring blades of a windmill out at concerned, people easily grasp the sea or the glint of photovoltaic solar concept of sustainability. We make panels as they shimmer in the mid- intuitive decisions based on rewards day sun. Keep your eyes closed a little in relation to how sustainable an longer and you dream of futuristic activity is. cities adorned with water-efficient vertical gardens, teeming with electric Take career choice as an example: vehicles like bees through a hive. most people would appreciate that Sustainability, as a concept, has become while it can be financially (or socially) synonymous with visions of the future lucrative to pursue a career as a drug and is a natural bedfellow of acronyms lord, the longevity of such a career such as ESG (Environmental, Social would fall short of a less lucrative and Governance) and UNFCCC (United choice – a plumber, for instance. A Nations Framework Convention on self-interested economic agent (also Climate Change). To be clear, these known as an econ) would weigh the are positive associations, and I support benefits accrued in a particular choice the agenda and goals articulated against the length of time one is able by the agencies championing these to carry out the activity. With a few causes. But this is not an article about notable exceptions, sustainability frameworks or fund characteristics should be negatively correlated to – rather, I am hoping to dive a little short-term gratification, as illustrated deeper into the spirit of sustainability. in Graph 1. More generally, we can Sustainability is intuitive when understand that the less threatening we’re not thinking about it a job is, be it exposure to harm or The characteristic of sustainability can requiring specific attributes, the more be broadly defined as the ability to sustainable it should be. Prudential Investment Managers © Consider this QUARTER 03 2021 Page 2 ANALYSIS FOR LOVE OF THE GAME: (RE)THINKING SUSTAINABILITY GraphGraph 1: The 1: The higher higher a a career’scareer’s short-term short-term reward, reward, the lower its sustainability the lower its sustainability Near-term rewards Narco (Drug Lord) Pro Golfer Heavyweight boxer Saturation Diver Astronaut Emergency doctor Accountant Petty criminal Grocer Admin clerk Sustainability of career SOURCE: PrudentialSource: Prudential Investment Investment Managers Managers For readers interested in trivia in decompressing the human body The question of career sustainability when surfacing from the depths of really hit home recently when I learned the blue. It involves divers living in a of a fascinating way of earning a living pressurized environment (chambers) for – a task known as saturation diving. up to 28 days while on tour of duty. Saturation diving is one of the most The risks of such a job are obvious to demanding, dangerous, and well-paid someone with even partial familiarity commercial jobs that exists today. of deep-water diving. But for readers A diver breathing pressurised gas interested in understanding why such accumulates dissolved nitrogen in their a job probably won’t make the list body tissues. If allowed to come out of of sustainable careers, have a look solution too quickly, they could suffer into the Byford Dolphin Accident1 , a decompression sickness. Saturation gruesome but fascinating incident if diving is a technique developed to ever there was one. overcome the loss of time involved Prudential Investment Managers © Consider this QUARTER 03 2021 Page 3 ANALYSIS FOR LOVE OF THE GAME: (RE)THINKING SUSTAINABILITY Infinite games opponent. Infinite games are not James Carse introduced the trying to outrun the march of time, differentiation between finite but rather to exist beyond the scope and infinite games with his widely of time-bound objectives. influential title “Finite and Infinite Games”, first published in 1986. An example of the two in the same domain would be the finite game of “There are at least two kinds of games. a debate versus the infinite game of One could be called finite, the other a conversation. In a debate each side infinite. A finite game is played for tries to undo the argument structure of the purpose of winning, an infinite the other with the objective of being game for the purpose of continuing announced the winner (either explicitly the play”2. in contest or through public opinion). A friendly conversation, on the other Finite games are played for the hand, is an infinite game engaged in purpose of winning. They are played by by participants who have no agenda participants who obey rules, recognise beyond the utility of conversation. boundaries, get judged and announce There is no judges panel to award winners. Finite games can be hacked, points for credible arguments, nor is the rules bent (or broken) and they there a social benefit for the party who can be tactfully gamed. They are speaks more (or less). The objective is theatrical, necessitate an audience self-contained. In the words of novelist and require judgement. Michael Shaara, it is done “for love of the game”. An infinite game exists for the purpose of continuing play. There is no rule Liar, liar book – the strategies employed in By now we can probably see the golden infinite games are geared to keeping thread of sustainability as the essence the game alive, not beating an of an infinite game. When we approach 1The Byford Dolphin accident, serving as a stark reminder of the dangers of saturation diving, involved the loss of four divers’ lives and resulted in the formation of the North Sea Divers Alliance, created by the relatives of the victims. 2Carse, James. Finite and Infinite Games (p. 3). Free Press. Kindle Edition. Prudential Investment Managers © Consider this QUARTER 03 2021 Page 4 ANALYSIS FOR LOVE OF THE GAME: (RE)THINKING SUSTAINABILITY an activity without an agenda, we Greater consequences, however, arise abandon the win/lose mindset, and the when people try to defeat the common activity stands unburdened. I’ve always and professional decencies required been intrigued by the vocabulary used for a well-functioning society. Two of to describe the labour of vocational the more recent high-profile situations activities such as those of a medical come to mind: doctor – we say a doctor practises his • The Volkswagen emissions scandal: craft, as opposed to completing a job. Also known as Dieselgate, the The subtlety is suggestive of an infinite incident involved deliberate actions game – perhaps because tending to on the part of the VW group to the ill will never be complete. misdirect regulatory authorities as to the noxious emissions of diesel- The sting in the tail for this analogy powered vehicles. VW intentionally of finite versus infinite games lies in programmed diesel engines to the strategy employed by participants. activate their emissions controls More particularly, when people during laboratory testing using approach what should be an infinite what is known as a defeat device. game with a finite game mindset, the The diesel-powered vehicles emitted consequences can range from mildly up to 40 times more nitrous oxide annoying to existentially risky. I am sure in real-world driving as compared you’ve had the unfortunate experience to lab tests. of attempting a casual conversation • The Wells Fargo account fraud scandal: This was a controversy with some nit-picker, only to have brought about by the creation of them silently keep score by correcting millions of fraudulent banking your grammar, pointing out your accounts on behalf of Wells Fargo unsubstantiated generalisations and clients without their consent (or accusing you of poorly constructing knowledge). Under pressure from arguments. The next conversation will supervisors, Wells Fargo employees surely be confined to talking about would open accounts without the weather if you’re unable to avoid customer consent in an effort to them. meet sales targets. Prudential Investment Managers © Consider this QUARTER 03 2021 Page 5 ANALYSIS FOR LOVE OF THE GAME: (RE)THINKING SUSTAINABILITY These accounts and countless others We respond to incentives (many of which we will never hear “Show me the incentive and I’ll show about) illustrate the harm caused you the outcome” - Charlie Munger when short-termism and self-interest trump real sustainability. We often Graph 2 below clearly illustrates the resort to moral judgements and flood of global capital that has been character restorations as a way out drawn into funds that invest with of the quagmire, but these have a mandate of sustainability.
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