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SI Mar April 2011_SI JF 10 V1 1/21/11 9:46 AM Page 1

Heaven’s Stenographer | Magic or Miracle? | Time Travel | 12 New CSI Fellows

Vol. 35 No. 2 | March/April 2011 THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE & REASON

Seven Questioning Deadly IV Nutrient Medical Therapy Hypotheses Stem Cells' Strange Rough Ride Problems in the Wegman Report

Published by The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry SI Mar Apr 11 (PL) _SI new design masters 1/21/11 10:59 AM Page 2

AT THE CEN TERFOR IN QUIRY /TRANSNATIONAL

www.csicop.org Paul Kurtz, Founder Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Richard Schroeder, Chairman Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Ronald A. Lindsay, President and CEO Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow

James E. Al cock*, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), Mar cia An gell, MD, former ed i tor-in-chief, Sci en ces, professor of phi los o phy and professor Mar burg, Ger ma ny New Eng land Jour nal of Med i cine of Law, Univ. of Mi ami Lor en Pan kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health Kimball Atwood IV, MD, , author, Harriet Hall, MD, family physician, investigator, Sci en ces Univ. Newton, MA Puyallup, WA Robert L. Park,professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Steph en Bar rett, MD, psy chi a trist, au thor, con sum er C.E.M. Han sel, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Wales Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of ad vo cate, Al len town, PA David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Astronomy and director of the Hopkins Willem Betz,MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Brussels Columbia Univ. Observatory, Williams College Ir ving Bie der man, psychol o gist, Univ. of Doug las R. Hof stad ter, pro fes sor of hu man John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. South ern CA un der stand ing and cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, Sus an Black more, Vis it ing Lec tur er, Univ. of the West Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Pro fes sor of Phys ics and City Univ. of –Lehman College of Eng land, Bris tol pro fes sor of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. Stev en Pink er, cog ni tive sci en tist, Harvard Univ. Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Ray Hy man*, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Or e gon Philip Plait, astronomer, lecturer, and writer Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist, pro fes sor emer i tus Le on Jar off, sci en ces ed i tor emer i tus, Time Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer, au thor, ex ec u tive of Eng lish, Univ. of Utah Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus, di rect or of CI CAP, It a ly Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ., Montreal science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of James “The Amazing” Randi, magician, CSICOP Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, Public Policy, Washington, D.C. founding member; founder, Sacramento City College, writer Ser gei Ka pit za, former ed i tor, Rus sian edi tion, Educational Foundation Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist, vice president Sci en tif ic Amer i can Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go for science education, Howard Hughes Medical In- Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Wal la ce Sam pson, MD, clin i cal pro fes sor of med i cine, stitute, Madison, WI of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept., Stan ford Univ., ed i tor, Sci en tif ic Re view of John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist, ed i tor, Na tion al director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Al ter na tive Med i cine Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny K.C. Cole, science writer, author, professor, biochemistry, Florida State Univ.; Nobel laureate Ev ry Schatz man, former pres i dent, Univ. of Southern California’s Annenberg Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer, di rect or, French Phys ics As so ci a tion School of Journalism Grif fith Ob ser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA Eu ge nie C. Scott*, phys i cal an thro pol o gist, ex ec u tive Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic, pro fes sor Paul Kurtz, professor emeritus of philosophy, di rect or, Na tion al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion emer i tus of Eng lish, Univ. of CA, Berke ley SUNY at Buffalo Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer El ie A. Shne our, bi o chem ist, au thor, president and Geof frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; research director, Bi os ys tems Re search In sti tute, Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, No bel lau re ate in phys ics La Jol la, CA Univ. of Utrecht, The Neth er lands Scott O. Lil i en feld*, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ., Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Dan i el C. Den nett, Univ. pro fes sor and Aus tin B. Atlanta, GA Mountain View, CA Fletch er Pro fes sor of Phi los o phy, di rect or of Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and Dick Smith,film pro duc er, pub lish er, Ter rey Hills, Cen ter for Cog ni tive Stud ies at Tufts Uni v. Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) N.S.W., Aus tral ia Ann Druyan, writer and producer, and CEO, Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of CA, Rob ert Stein er, ma gi cian, au thor, El Cer ri to, CA Cosmos Studios, Ithaca, NY Berke ley Vic tor J. Sten ger, emer i tus pro fes sor of phys ics Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Eliz a beth Loft us, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, and as tron o my, Univ. of Ha waii; ad junct pro fes sor Cen tral Con nec ti cut State Univ. Univ. of CA, Ir vine of phi los o phy, Univ. of CO Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, Da vid Marks, psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don Jill Cor nell Tar ter,as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, SE Louisiana Univ. Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, Moun tain View, CA An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, Mex i co City Car ol Tav ris,psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA Los Al tos Hills, CA Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Da vid E. Thom as*, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, Kend rick Fra zier*, sci ence writer, ed i tor, Brown Univ. Per al ta, NM SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER Marv in Min sky, pro fes sor of me dia arts and sci en ces, Steph en Toul min, pro fes sor of phi los o phy, Christopher C. French, professor, department M.I.T. Univ. of South ern CA of psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Neil de Gras se Ty son, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, Psychology Research Unit, Goldsmiths Cen ter Hay den Plan e tar i um, College, Univ. of London Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of CA, Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine Yves Gal i fret, executive secretary, Berke ley con trib ut ing ed i tor l’Union Rationaliste Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, Univ. of Tex as at Aus tin; No bel lau re ate (Italy), research fellow of CICAP, The Netherlands E.O. Wil son, uni ver si ty pro fes sor emer i tus, the Italian skeptics group Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Med aille Col lege Har vard Univ. Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Steven Novella, MD, assistant professor Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Uni ver si ty Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine of Hert ford shire, England Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, Benjamin Wolozin*, professor, department of In sti tute; No bel lau re ate Nye Labs pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. James E. Oberg, sci ence writer Marv in Zel en, stat is ti cian, Har vard Univ.

* Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion only.) SI Mar Apr 11 final_SI new design masters 1/26/11 2:08 PM Page 3

Skep ti cal In quir er March/April 2011 | Vol. 35, No. 2

FEATURES COLUMNS FROM THE EDITOR 31 Why the Bem Experiments Back from the Future: Are Not ’s Parapsychology and Next Big Thing ...... 4 the Bem Affair NEWS AND COMMENT Psychologist Daryl Bem has reported data suggesting Twelve Scholars and Investigators Elec - that future experiences can influence responses in the ted Fellows of Committee for Skeptical present. Careful scrutiny of his report reveals serious Inquiry/Anti-Vaccine Doctor’s ‘Deliber- flaws. His interpretation is untenable. ate Fraud’/CSI Helps Crack Los Angeles JAMES E. ALCOCK UFO Mystery/Celebrating Cosmos’s Thirtieth Anniversary and Carl Sagan Day/More Disconnects about EMF and 40 Cell Phones/Cottingley Fairies Debunker Seven Deadly Geoffrey Crawley Dies/New Zealand Medical Hypotheses Skeptics Leader Denis Dutton Dies .....5 Many medical hypotheses have been ill-conceived and/or inadequately tested. As a consequence, billions IN VES TI GA TIVE FILES of dollars have been wasted and the public harmed. Heaven’s Stenographer: REYNOLD SPECTOR The ‘Guided’ Hand of Vassula Ryden 49 JOE NICK ELL...... 19 Intravenous Nutrient NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD Magic or Miracle? Therapy: Cure-All or Just One A Lesson Worth Remembering More Unproven Therapy? MAS SI MO POLIDORO ...... 23 Intravenous nutrient therapy is increasingly popular as a treatment for multiple ailments. But the evidence for the THINK ING ABOUT SCI ENCE efficacy of IV nutrient treatments is speculative at best. On Time Travel CLIFFORD W. BENINGER MAS SI MO PI GLI UC CI...... 25 SCIENCE WATCH COMMENTARY Religion on Politics on Science: The Rough Ride for Stem 14 Cells Continues KENNETH W. KRAUSE...... 27 Washington Rally to Restore Sanity SKEPTICAL INQUIREE The Mysterious Malady a Plea for Reason BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 30 BENJAMIN WOLOZIN NEW BOOKS...... 55

SPECIAL REPORT LETTERS TO THE ED I TOR...... 62

16 THE LAST LAUGH...... 66 Strange Problems in the Wegman Report REVIEWS JOHN R. MASHEY A Little Too Grand? Padre Pio: Scandals JUSTIN TROTTIER...... 55 FORUMS of a Saint The Grand Design by Stephen JOE NICKELL...... 59 52 Hawking and Leonard Mlodinow Padre Pio: Miracles and Politics in Do Scientists a Secular Age by Sergio Luzzatto Know Everything? KEITH TAYLOR ‘Unexplained’ Cases Debunking the —Only If You Ignore Trauma Myth 53 All Explanations BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 60 God in the ROBERT SHEAFFER...... 57 The Trauma Myth: The Truth About News Again UFOs: Generals, Pilots, and Government the Sexual Abuse of Children—and Its MARK LEVY Officials Go on the Record by Leslie Kean Aftermath by Susan A. Clancy SI Mar Apr 11 (PL) _SI new design masters 1/21/11 10:59 AM Page 4

[ FROM THE EDITOR Skep ti cal In quir er™ THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON

ED I TOR Kend rick Fra zi er Why the Bem Experiments Are ED I TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Thom as Cas ten, Ray Hy man, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Not Parapsychology’s Next Big Thing Joe Nick ell, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, David E. Thomas, Leonard Tramiel, Benjamin Wolozin CON SULT ING ED I TORS Sus an J. Black more, he world of news and blogs began buzzing in mid-November. A promi- Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E. C. Krupp, Da vid F. Marks, Jay M. Pasachoff, Rich ard Wis e man nent psychologist, Daryl Bem of Cornell University, had posted a paper CON TRIB UT ING ED I TORS Austin Dacey, D.J. Grothe, on his website in which he sensationally claims new experimental evi- Harriet Hall, Kenneth W. Krause, Chris Moon ey, T James E. Oberg, Rob ert Sheaf fer, Karen Stollznow dence of precognition, in this case implying that events preceded their causes. MAN A GING ED I TOR Ben ja min Rad ford The paper has been accepted by a respected psychology journal. Is this the re- ART DI RECT OR Chri sto pher Fix search that will finally give parapsychology what it has long lacked—laboratory PRO DUC TION Paul Loynes evidence of abilities sufficient to impress mainstream science? ASSISTANT EDITORS Julia Lavarnway, Gretchen McCormack Fortunately, we at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and the SKEPTICAL WEB DEVELOPER Jon Childress INQUIRER have in our ranks numerous international experts on the claims of PUB LISH ER’S REP RE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr parapsychology. We called on one of them, psychologist (and CSI executive COR PO RATE COUN SELS Derek C. Araujo, council member) James Alcock of York University in Toronto, to examine Bem’s Bren ton N. Ver Ploeg paper and provide SI readers and the public a considered critique. BUSINESS MAN A GER Pa tri cia Beau champ Alcock’s critical examination, “Back from the Future: Parapsychology and FIS CAL OF FI CER Paul Pau lin VICE PRESIDENT OF PLANNING AND DEVEL OP MENT the Bem Affair,” appears in this issue. It is a devastating critique. Before getting Sherry Rook to the Bem paper itself, Alcock provides readers with a valuable reminder that DATA OF FI CER Jacalyn Mohr we have been through all this before. He briefly catalogs an eighty-year history STAFF Melissa Braun, Cheryl Catania, Roe Giambrone, Leah Gordon, An tho ny San ta Lu cia, of next-big-thing claims in parapsychology, including J.B. Rhine’s card-guess- John Sul li van, Vance Vi grass ing experiments of the 1930s, remote-viewing experiments of the 1970s, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Michelle Blackley ganzfeld experiments of the 1970s and ’80s, and the Princeton Engineering IN QUIRY ME DIA PRO DUC TIONS Thom as Flynn Anomalies Research unit computer-based psychokinetic experiments of the DI RECT OR OF LI BRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga 1980s and ’90s. All provoked tremendous excitement in the world of parapsy- The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER is the of fi cial chology and considerable in the scientific world. jour nal of the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, an in ter na tion al or gan i zation. Today, none of these previous claims of experimental evidence for extrasen- The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ER(ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished bi month - sory perception have stood up. They have mostly fallen away, and some are sel- ly by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, 3965 Rensch Road, dom even mentioned anymore. It is a sobering—and very telling—history. Am herst, NY 14228. Print ed in U.S.A. Pe ri od i cals post age paid at Buf fa lo, NY, and at ad di tion al mail ing of fi ces. Sub scrip tion Nevertheless, an open mind requires the examination of new claims on their pri ces: one year (six is sues), $35; two years, $60; three own merits. Alcock does just that for each of Bem’s nine experiments. He years, $84; sin gle is sue, $4.95. Ca na di an and for eign or ders: Pay ment in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must ac com pa - quickly finds disturbing problems, beginning with confusing and troubling ny or ders; please add US$10 per year for ship ping. Ca na di an changes in procedure during the experiments and inappropriate statistical and for eign cus tom ers are en cour aged to use Vi sa or Mas ter - analysis. Early on, Alcock expresses his frustration: “This is one of the most Card. Publications Mail Agreement No. 41153509. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: IMEX, P.O. Box baffling descriptions of research methods and procedures that I have ever en- 4332, Station Rd., Toronto , ON M5W 3J4. countered.” And at another point: “Just about everything that could be done In quir ies from the me dia and the pub lic about the work of the Com mit tee should be made to Barry Karr, Executive Director, wrong in an experiment occurred here.” It gets worse from there. CSI, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: 716-636- I’ll let you read the piece for yourself, and you’ll see what he means. In the 1425. Fax: 716-636-1733. Man u scripts, let ters, books for re view, and ed i to ri al in quir ies end, this appears not to be the experimental evidence parapsychologists have should be sent to Kend rick Fra zi er, Ed i tor, SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, long sought. Alcock finds that the publication of this “badly flawed” paper will 944 Deer Drive NE, Al bu querque, NM 87122. Fax: 505-828- 2080. E-mail: [email protected]. Be fore sub mit - serve no one well—not parapsychology, not the psychology journal, and not ting any man u script, please consult our Guide for Au thors for the public. styles, ref er en ce requirements, and submittal re quire ments. It is on our website at www.csicop.org/pub lications/guide. I owe readers an explanation about one point. Alcock’s article is longer than Or you may send a re quest to the ed i tor. most we publish in SI. But we felt that Bem’s claims, considering the public in- Ar ti cles, re ports, re views, and let ters pub lished in the SKEP TI- terest shown in them from the moment they became known, merited a serious CALIN QUIR ERrep re sent the views and work of in di vid u al au thors. Their pub li ca tion does not nec es sa ri ly con sti tute an en dorse - examination—and that requires some space. We felt both the historical context ment by CSI or its mem bers un less so stated. and point-by-point examination Alcock provides are worth presenting fully for Cop y right ©2011 by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry. All rights re served. The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ERis avail a ble on 16mm mi - our intellectually curious and intelligent readers ... not to mention the media and cro film, 35mm mi cro film, and 105mm mi cro fiche from Uni - public, who look to us for authoritative perspective and judgment. ver si ty Mi cro films In ter na tion al and is in dexed in the Read - er’s Guide to Pe ri od i cal Lit er a ture. Sub scrip tions and chan ges of ad dress should be ad dressed —KENDRICK FRAZIER to: SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (out side the U.S. call 716- 636-1425). Old ad dress as well as new are nec es sa ry for change of sub scrib er’s ad dress, with six weeks ad vance no - tice. SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER sub scrib ers may not speak on be half of Committee for Skeptical Inquiry CSI or the SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER. Post mas ter: Send chan ges of ad dress to SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ER, P.O. “...promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.”

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Twelve Scholars and Investigators Elected Fellows of Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Outstanding skeptics from five countries honored for ‘distinguished contributions to science and skepticism.’

The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry an- the Australian Skeptics. 106. They come from Australia, Belgium, nounces the election of twelve outstanding The Committee, established in 1976 and Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Mex- scientists, scholars, writers, and investigators still popularly known as CSICOP, publishes ico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia, as Fellows. Election as a fellow recognizes the , the magazine for the United Kingdom, and the . “distinguished contributions to science and science and reason. The Committee “pro- Isaac Asimov, Martin Gardner, Philip J. skepticism.” motes scientific in quiry, critical investigation, Klass, Carl Sagan, B.F. Skin ner, and Nobel All of the newly elected fellows have made and the use of reason in examining controver- Laureates Francis Crick and Glenn T. Seaborg major contributions to science and reason, sial and extraordinary claims.” Fellows serve were all fellows of CSICOP. critical inquiry, and public education. They as formidable intellectual re sources for the Current fellows include such luminaries hail from the United States, the United King- Com mittee and for the SKEPTICAL INqUIRER. as evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins, dom, Australia, Canada, and India. “We are pleased that so many distin- philosopher Daniel C. Den nett, physicist The new fellows include science writers guished scholars, re searchers, academics, and Lawrence M. Krauss, philosopher (and CSI- Sandra Blakeslee and Simon Singh; psychol- people fighting for science and reason in the COP founder) Paul Kurtz, cognitive scientist ogists Anthony R. Prat kanis and Keith E. trenches as part of their daily lives and profes- Steven Pinker, magician/investigator James Stanovich; physicist Mark Boslough; physi- sions have joined with CSI,” said CSI Execu- Randi, physical anthropologist Eugenie C. cian and critic Edzard tive Director Barry Karr. “We look forward to Scott, astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson, Ernst; and investigator/writers Benjamin a busy and rewarding future and incorporating biologist E.O. Wilson, and Nobel Laureate Radford and Karen Stollznow. Several other these new fellows into our activities.” scientists Murray Gell-Mann, Sir Harry prominent leaders of the Potential new fellows are nominated by Kroto, Leon Leder man, and Steven Wein - have also been elected: Sanal Edama ruku, existing fellows or by members of the Com- berg. A full list of fellows appears on the inside president of the Indian Rationalist Associa- mittee’s governing executive council, and they cover of this and every issue of the SKEPTICAL tion and Rationalist Inter national; Wendy M. are then elected by the executive council. INqUIRER and is also on our website at Gross man, founder of the United Kingdom’s Combined with the sixteen new fellows www.csicop.org/about/csi_fellows_and_staff. The Skeptic magazine; Barry Karr, executive announced last year (SI, March/April 2010), Here are biographical sketches of the director of the Committee for Skeptical In- the new class brings the number of present 2011 class of Committee for Skeptical Inquiry quiry; and Richard Saunders, vice president of Committee for Skep tical Inquiry fellows to fellows:

Sandra Blakeslee Mark Boslough Sanal Edamaruku Science writer; author; Physicist, Sandia President, Indian New York Times science National Laboratories, Rationalist Association correspondent Albuquerque, and Rationalist Blakeslee has spent nearly New Mexico International all of her career writing Boslough is regularly seen Sanal Edamaruku is a about science for the New in science documentaries prominent writer, colum- York Times, both as a staff writer and on and news reports both explaining his re- nist, and television personality who is con- contract. For about the past fifteen years search on planetary impacts and participat- sidered the most outspoken and dynamic she has been specializing in the brain sci- ing in expeditions to remote impact sites advocate of rationalism in India. He is pres- ences. Her latest book is Sleights of Mind: around the world. Exotic scenery and com- ident of the Indian Rationalist Association What the Neuroscience of Magic Says About puter animations of catastrophic cosmic and the founding president of Rationalist Our Everyday Deceptions (2010), with neu- events make for good television, but Inter national. Explaining the science behind roscientists Stephen L. Macknik and Su- Boslough has become an advocate for ob- all kinds of “miracles” and exposing godmen, sana Martinez-Conde. The book uses neu- jective assessment of all risks to humanity, astrologers, faith healers, bigoted politicians, roscience to explain how magicians deceive including those that are self-inflicted. He and fraudulent “modern” therapists on air, us, why we are so vulnerable to sleights of passionately defends climate science from Edamaruku has broken the spells of count- mind, and how deception is part of what political attacks and enjoys debunking the less paranormal and pseudoscientific claims makes us human. Her previous books in- extraordinary claims of global-warming and shaken deep-rooted beliefs in , clude The Body Has a Mind of Its Own deniers. He advocates the use of humor as reincarnation, and tantric powers. Some of (with her son Matthew Blakeslee, a fourth- a weapon against . his interventions have led to the arrest of generation science writer), On Intelligence Boslough’s most widely read piece is a holy or helped control outbreaks (with Jeff Hawkins), and Phantoms in the thinly disguised spoof of creationists in the of mass hysteria. For example, in 1996 he Brain: Probing the Mysteries of the Human form of a satirical April Fools’ Day news debunked the legendary “monkey-man” who Mind (with V.S. Ramachan dran). Blakeslee story, in which he wrote about a supposed had terrified New Delhi. In what is perhaps lives in Santa Fe, New Mexico. vote of the Alabama legislature to change his most spectacular action so far, Eda - pi to its “biblical value” of exactly 3. It was maruku challenged one of India’s leading widely mistaken as real. Boslough has a tantriks to prove his claimed black-magic PhD in applied physics from Caltech. powers by killing Edamaruku with mantras and rituals on live television.

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Edzard Ernst Wendy M. Grossman Barry Karr Professor, complemen- Writer; founder and first Executive director, tary medicine, Peninsula editor, The Skeptic Com mittee for Skeptical Medical School, Universi- magazine (U.K.) Inquiry, Amherst, ties of Exeter and Grossman founded New York Plymouth, Exeter, the United kingdom’s karr, the longtime United Kingdom The Skeptic magazine executive director of Ernst, who holds both MD and PhD in 1987 and has served twice as its editor the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, is de grees, came to the University of Exeter (1987–1989 and 1999–2001). She also currently a member of the management in 1993 from Hannover Medical School writes its column “A Skeptic at large.” committee of the Center for Inquiry and (Germany) and the University of Vienna Along with current The Skeptic editor-in- has served as the Center’s executive to establish the first Chair in Complemen- chief Chris French, she co-edited the director. A SkEPTICAl InqUIRER consult- tary Medi cine. He is one of the world’s 2010 book Why Statues Weep: The Best of ing editor, karr has also contributed to leading and best-informed critics of The Skeptic. A freelance writer specializing or edited several books, including alternative medicine. He has been awarded in science and technology, Grossman is a The UFO Invasion, Science vs. Religion, thirteen scientific prizes and awards and frequent contributor to ’s Skeptical Odysseys, The Outer Edge, and has more than one thousand publications technology section and has written for Bizarre Cases. He has served the Commit- in the peer-reviewed literature. Ernst has Scientific American, New Scien tist, Wired, tee for Skeptical Inquiry (formerly written more than forty books including, Wired News, and the Philosopher’s Magazine. CSICOP) for nearly thirty years with with British science journalist Simon She has authored several books, including dedication and distinction. In addition to Singh, the much-embattled 2009 book 2001’s From Anarchy to Power: The Net speaking and writing on skeptical issues, Trick or Treat ment? Alternative Medicine Comes of Age. Her 1998 book net.wars karr works tirelessly behind the scenes. on Trial, which forthrightly defends was one of the first to have its full text He deals with management and evidence-based medicine and assesses published on the web. She sits on the organizational matters, helps raise funds, popular practices like , executive committee of the Association tracks budget and finances, plans , and . Ernst of British Science Writers as well as the conferences and other events, edits reports frequently about alternative advisory councils of the Open Rights the Committee’s website (www.csicop.org), medicine in the SkEPTICAl InqUIRER. Group and Privacy International. oversees media interactions, and keeps Gross man also has what she calls “a the organization moving forward. disreputable past as a fulltime folksinger.”

Anti-Vaccine Doctor’s ‘Deliberate Fraud’ Benjamin Radford

fraud,” according to Dr. Fiona Godlee, children and families who live with it.” editor in chief of BMJ, formerly known In “Secrets of the MMR Scare,” the as the British Medical Journal. The second part of a BMJ series of special re- statement appeared in a January 5, ports on the scandal, Deer showed how 2010, editorial on BMJ’s website. Wakefield exploited the vaccine scare for Author of the now-retracted article his personal financial gain. Wakefield in , Wakefield had previously planned to make a fortune developing been found guilty of acting unethically his own supposedly safer vaccines and in his research on by a British panel. Dr. Godlee said BMJ and inves- diagnostic testing kits once the public’s tigator uncovered “clear ev- confidence in the safety of current vac- idence of falsification” of Wakefield’s cines was shaken. According to Deer, data. Godlee’s editorial states that Wakefield expected to earn over forty “Wakefield altered numerous facts million dollars each year from selling his about the patients’ medical histories in diagnostic kits.n

Tom Miller/ZUMA Press/Newscom Miller/ZUMA Tom order to support his claim to have iden- An infamous 1998 medical-journal re- tified a new syndrome.... But perhaps Toning Shoes Step into Court port by , the doctor as important as the scare’s effect on in- Reebok and New Balance are among whose research sparked international fectious disease is the , emotion, the companies consumers say concern over whether or not childhood and money that have been diverted make false claims for a better butt. To read this story, vaccines cause autism, “was based not away from efforts to understand the visit csicop.org on bad science but on a deliberate real and how to help

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Anthony R. Pratkanis Benjamin Radford Richard Saunders Professor of psychology, Investigator; research Vice president, University fellow, Committee for Australian Skeptics; of California, Skeptical Inquiry educator; investigator; Santa Cruz radford, a research fellow podcaster; pratkanis, a social of the Committee for Sydney, Australia psychologist, is an expert Skeptical Inquiry, is a richard Saunders says he on economic fraud crimes, , premier science-based investigator of owes his passion in skeptical activism to marketing and consumer behavior, and claims of “unexplained” phenomena such the examples set by Carl Sagan and James subliminal persuasion. His research as ghosts, Bigfoot, crop circles, UFOs, lake randi. In the past decade, Saunders has program has investigated such topics as the monsters, and miracles. He is managing created The Great Skeptic CD and the delayed effects of persuasion, attitudes editor of the SKepTICAL INqUIrer and DVD Great Water Divining for the and memory, groupthink, subliminal helps shape every issue, writes articles and Australian Skeptics. He was also made the persuasion, mass communications, source reviews, and authors its popular “Skeptical youngest president and a life member of credibility, persuasion and democracy, Inquiree” q&A column. He also edits the organization, co-founded The Mystery and a variety of influence tactics. CSI’s Skeptical Briefs newsletter. radford is Investigators skeptical science show for He is coauthor of several books, including author or coauthor of six books, including schools, and founded Sydney Skeptics in The Age of Propa ganda: The Everyday Use Scientific Paranormal Investigation: How the pub. He was one of the organizers of and Abuse of Persuasion (with elliot Aron- to Solve Unexplained Mysteries, Media TAM (The Amazing Meeting) Australia son) and Weapons of Fraud: A Source Book Mythmakers: How Journalists, Activists, in 2010 and is currently the producer of for Fraud Fighters (with Doug Shadel). and Advertisers Mislead Us, and (with Joe The Skeptic Zone podcast. A frequent visitor pratkanis has written several memorable Nickell) Lake Monster Mysteries: Investigat- to the United States, richard has delighted SI articles, including “How to Sell a pseudo- ing the World’s Most Elusive Creatures. in appearing at major skeptical conven- science” (July/August 1995) and “The Through his columns, lectures, and media tions such as TAM8 and Dragon*Con. Cargo-Cult Sci ence of Subliminal appearances, radford educates the public persuasion” (Spring 1992). He also about the nature of skepticism and science writes for popular periodicals, makes literacy. frequent media appearances, and has won awards for excellence in teaching and for “most revered professor.”

CSI Helps Crack Los Angeles UFO Mystery Benjamin Radford

Members of the Committee for Skep- saying that contrails were different in tical Inquiry were among the first to re- some details and are almost always seen veal the solution to a UFO mystery that as horizontal streaks high in the sky— made international news in November. not more or less perpendicular to the A UFO, which appeared off the south- horizon. ern California coast on November 8, I was asked by LiveScience.com to 2010, was captured in dramatic footage review the evidence and offer my analy- by a KCBS television news helicopter sis of the UFO, which I did in a column cameraman during sunset. The contrail- posted just before 11 pM the day after creating UFO was thought by many to the report. To the best of my knowledge, be a missile, though military officials this was the first correct solution to the denied that any missiles had been mystery posted on a major news or sci- launched in the area at the time. ence website. With no immediate explanation for SKepTICAL INqUIrer columnist rob - the strange object in the sky, the Inter net ert Sheaffer, on his recently launched Bad soon buzzed with conspiracy theories UFOs blog, suspected that the “missile” about who might have launched the se- was in fact an airplane. This supposition an aircraft contrail, with tricks of per- cret missile (foreign governments? a film was based in part on an analysis on the spective making it look like a missile fly- studio promoting a UFO film? “black website Contrail Science: The Science ing away from you, when in fact it was ops”?) and for what purpose. Some noted and pseudoscience of Contrails and an aircraft flying toward you. It depends that the streak looked similar to ordinary Chemtrails (www.contrailscience.com): on an effect of perspective.” Further - jet contrails, but doubters countered by “The object seems to have been simply more, Sheaffer noted, this was not the

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Simon Singh Keith E. Stanovich Karen Stollznow Science writer; broad- Cognitive psychologist; Linguist; skeptical caster; United Kingdom professor of human investigator; Singh is a leading science development and applied writer; podcaster journalist in Britain. After psychology, Uni versity Stollznow, who has a earning a PhD in particle of Toronto PhD in linguistics, is a physics at Cambridge and Stanovich has been ac- researcher for the Script the European Organization for Nuclear Re - knowledged by his peers as one of the most Encoding Initia tive at the University of search (CERN), Singh joined BBC televi- influential cognitive psychologists in the California, Berke ley, and an adjunct sion’s science department, producing and di- world. His research focuses on literacy, rea- lecturer in linguistics. She devotes her recting many science programs and soning, and rationality. He has been ranked spare time to investigating pseudoscientific documentaries. One such program led to his as one of the fifty most-cited researchers in and paranormal beliefs and practices. writing of Fermat’s Last Theorem (retitled his field and as one of the twenty-five most She has written about a wide range of Fermat’s Enigma in America), the first math- productive educational psychologists. topics, including ghosts, psychics, UFOs, ematics book to become a number-one best- He was given the prestigious 2010 hoaxes, alternative therapies, conspiracy seller in Britain. Subsequent books include Grawemeyer Award in education for his theories, , and cults. The Code Book, Big Bang, and most recently 2009 book, What Intelligence Tests Miss: She has a particular skeptical focus on Trick or Treatment? Alternative Medicine on The Psychology of Rational Thought. language-related phenomena. Stollznow Trial (with Edzard Ernst). His life took a Other books include The Robot’s Rebellion: is a host of the Center for Inquiry’s Point big turn when he began investigating chiro- Finding Meaning in the Age of Darwin of Inquiry podcast and a co-host of the practors. Singh became a hero in the skepti- and Decision Making and Rationality in Monster Talk podcast. She is a SKEPTICAL cal community—and ignited a much- the Modern World. Stano vich’s introductory INQUIRER contributing editor and manag- needed review of British libel law—after the psychology textbook How to Think Straight ing editor of the Center for Inquiry’s British Chiropractic Association sued him About Psychology is used by more than Scientific Review of Mental Health Practice. for libel for a 2008 article in the Guardian 300 universities and is in its ninth edition. She writes the “Naked Skeptic” column examining claims that chiropractors could He has written more than 200 articles for the CSI’s website and pens the “Bad treat certain childhood diseases. Singh bat- on the psychology of reading, reasoning, Language” column for Skeptic magazine. tled the suit despite high personal costs, and and cognitive science. Stollznow is also a director of the Bay after two years the case was dropped and he Area Skeptics and a research fellow of the was vindicated. The libel reform campaign James Randi Educational Foundation. his legal battle helped spark continues today and has more than 50,000 signatories.

first time that a jet contrail had been tion flourished), but the aircraft that sup- mistaken for a missile launch. posedly made the contrail was not iden- It took a few days for the government tified. Furthermore, several high-profile to investigate the UFO and issue a re- ex perts appeared on television suggesting port. When it did, Pentagon spokesman that the UFO was in fact a missile; for Colonel David Lapan agreed with me, example, Retired Air Force Lieutenant Sheaffer, and other skeptics: “With all General Thomas McIner ney was seen the information that we have gathered on Fox News stating unequivocally, over the last day and a half about this “That is a missile launched from a sub- condensation trail off the coast of south- marine. ... I am absolutely certain that ern California on Mon day night, both is not an aircraft.” within the Depart ment of Defense and The jet-contrail theory had already other U.S. government agencies, we have been examined (and dismissed) by many no evidence to suggest that this was any- people, and it was clear that corroborat- thing other than a contrail caused by an ing evidence would be needed to show aircraft.” that other aspects of the case pointed to Instead of clearing up the mystery for the same conclusion. To address the ru- UFO believers, this explanation was mors, I wrote a second column on the

Benjamin Radford widely dismissed and seen as a clumsy Los Angeles UFO, this time for Discov - A vertical jet contrail photographed in Albuquerque, cover-up. Not only was the official jet- ery News. I examined the contrails the- New Mexico, in early December 2010; the appear- ance of a contrail varies greatly according to temper- contrail explanation late in coming ory afresh and did further research into ature, light conditions, and weather patterns. (while rumors and conspiracy specula- the circumstances surrounding the sight-

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

ing. I also did some experiments to see news crew videotaping the sunset Celebrating Cosmos’s if I could photograph ordinary jet con- from a helicopter and a few people in Thirtieth Anniversary trails that might be mistaken for missiles nearby Long Beach (such as photog- (see photo on p. 8). rapher Rick Warren from his tenth- and Carl Sagan Day Was the jet-contrail explanation real floor apartment). None of the other Lauren Becker or just a cover-up? Let’s look at the ev- nearly four million people living in idence and compare the contrail expla- Los Angeles noticed the “missile,” nation with the missile theory. and pilots flying in the area did not report seeing anything unusual—cer- 1) According to the Federal Aviation tainly not a missile being launched. Ad ministration, radar in the area did This is very strong evidence that the not reveal any fast-moving un known phenomenon was unusual from only targets. A missile would have been one unique perspective; that is, people picked up on radar, while a jet would looking at the same thing from dif- not have been flagged as unusual. ferent distances and angles either rec- 2) No trace of the alleged missile was ognized what it was or didn’t think it seen falling into the water off the was strange. coast of Los Angeles, nor was a mis- sile (or any part of it) recovered; it The explanation given by the con- seems to have simply vanished into spiracy theorists who insist that the the sky. If the contrail was created by missile was some sort of secret U.S. a plane, of course no falling missile government test collapses under the would be seen or found. weight of its own illogic. Why would 3) The object seen in the video moves the government launch a “secret” mis- like a jet, not a rocket. As Michio sile only thirty-five miles from Los An- Kaku, physics professor at City Uni- geles, where it would be obvious to any- Thirty years ago this past fall, millions versity of New York, noted on Good one looking skyward? Furthermore, of Americans sat down in their living Morning America, “The trail seems to there would be no reason for officials to rooms and watched a revolution in tel- change direction. Ballistic missiles hide or cover up a launch; missiles and evision programming: the first episode don’t do that. It doesn’t accelerate. satellites are routinely launched from of Carl Sagan’s masterpiece, Cosmos. Ballistic missiles accelerate up to the California coast. All the Penta gon Written by Sagan, Ann Druyan, and 18,000 miles per hour, [but] this is would have to do is issue a statement Steven Soter, the thirteen-part series traveling at a constant velocity.” telling the public that it was a routine, won an Emmy and a Peabody Award Although missiles accelerate planned launch, and the issue would go and was the most-watched Public greatly during launch, aircraft typi- away. Broadcasting Service (PBS) series in cally maintain a constant cruising As Robert Sheaffer noted in a fol- the United States for twenty years. speed after they have reached the low-up post to his original blog post, Since then, it has gone on to reach al- desired altitude—exactly as the the airplane that created the UFO was most a billion viewers in over sixty videotape shows. finally identified through careful analy- countries, and it’s still the most widely 4) There is no record of any missiles sis on the Contrail Science website: “Al- watched PBS series in the world. being fired at the location and time most certainly it was UPS flight 902 We’ve been fascinated by the cos- of the sighting, while there are from Hawaii to the Ontario Airport in mos ever since. This past fall, science records of commercial jets in the California, the flight path using Goo - organizations, skeptics’ groups, human- area at that time. gle Earth matches up perfectly with the ist groups, Center for Inquiry branches, 5) Perhaps most damaging to the mis- photos.” Despite these skeptical analy- campus groups, science classes, astron- sile theory, the only people who saw ses, many people remain convinced that omy clubs, and countless others all over the mysterious phenomenon had the videotape shows some sort of secret the world celebrated the thirtieth an- similar vantage points: a television missile or UFO. n niversary of Cosmos. Activities ranged from thirteen-hour viewing marathons in Australia to weekly episode screen- The analysis that identified UPS flight 902 as the jet that made the mystery con- ings in Canada. Two CFI branches trail is available at http://contrailscience.com/los-angeles-missile-contrail-explained-in- were even able to watch episodes on the pictures. For more analysis, see Robert Sheaffer’s Bad UFOs blog post at big screens of major movie theaters in http://badufos.blogspot.com/2010/11/conspiracy-theorists-continue-to-flog.html. Chicago and Indianapolis! continued on page 11

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“It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry.” – Thomas Paine You are invited to join the Center for Inquiry to Act, Combat, and Promote…

Since 1976, three remarkable organizations have been in the forefront of efforts to promote and defend critical thinking and freedom of inquiry. The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (founded in 1976), the Council for Secular Humanism (1980), CSI Fellow and SkEPTICAl INquIrEr Editorial Board Member and the Center for Inquiry James Alcock leads a class at a Skeptics’ Toolbox event. The Toolbox (1991) have advocated, has been held every year, except once, since1992. championed, and, when necessary, defended the freedom to inquire … while Your Help Is a Necessity! ACT, COMBAT, and PROMOTE demonstrating how the fruits Each year, magazine of objective inquiry can be We are currently focused on three subscriptions fund a smaller used to understand reality, goals central to our core objectives: percentage of this work, even refute false beliefs, and achieve as the need for activism in- Act to end the stigma results that benefit humanity. attached to being creases and the population nonreligious. we serve grows. In many ways, our organiza- tions have been ahead of their Combat religion’s More than ever, CFI and its time. Now, they are privileges and its influence affiliates depend on the on public policy. truly 3 For Tomorrow. generosity of our supporters Through education, advocacy, both to fund daily operations Promote science-based publishing, legal activism, skepticism and critical thinking. and to build capital and its network of regional for the future. branches, CFI and its affiliate Make your most generous gift

organizations continue to today . . . or request information Your support today can provide support for everyone on planned giving or a bequest. who seeks a better life—in protect tomorrow for us all. For more information, return the this life—for all. Your generous gift can perpetuate our work toward attached card or contact us at: Center for Inquiry the kind of world you—and Development Office your grandchildren—can feel P.O. Box 741 Amherst, NY 14226 proud to live in. 1-800-818-7071 [email protected] website: www.centerforinquiry.net SI Mar Apr 11 (PL) _SI new design masters 1/21/11 10:59 AM Page 11

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

The Center for Inquiry marked the CFI/Indiana also held a day-long occasion by commissioning exclusive, conference featuring Leonard Tramiel, handmade ceramic necklace pendants physicist and science-education advo- based on some of the major themes of cate, and Brian Murphy, director of the series, such as “Extraordinary claims Holcomb Observatory and Plan etar - require extraordinary evidence” and the ium and professor of physics and as- illuminating concept that we are all No other scientist has tronomy at Butler University. Mem bers made of “starstuff.” Other necklaces of CFI/Tallahassee enjoyed a tribute to fondly recall Sagan’s use of the word bil- been able to reach, Carl Sagan by professor and Nobel lions (although he never said “billions teach, and influence Laureate Sir Harold Kroto, and many and billions”) and the design of the other groups attended special Carl Sagan phonograph record that traversed the so many nonscientists Day planetarium shows, star parties, sci- solar system on the Voyager probes. ence lectures, and Cosmos screenings. The Cosmos fun continued into No- in such a meaningful Elementary and high schools joined vember with the celebration of the sec- way, and that is why in the fun, too. Students at Roosevelt ond annual Carl Sagan Day. In 2009, School in the town where Sagan went to CFI/Fort Lauderdale, Florida Atheists we honor Carl Sagan, high school (Rahway, New Jersey), cele- and Secular Humanists (FLASH), and remember his work, brated by studying the stars and visiting other groups created the first Carl StarLab, a portable planetarium that Sagan Day to mark Sagan’s birthday, No- and marvel at the helps students understand astronomy. vember 9, and the idea quickly spread. In cosmos he helped us Students in Douglas Ryan’s inte- 2010, groups from Alaska to New grated physics and chemistry classes at Zealand held star parties, astronomy lec- understand. Round Rock High School in Texas had tures, science fairs, and more to say a particularly good day. Each class began thanks to Sagan and to bring his work by watching clips of interviews with to the next generation of “starstuff.” Sagan and his collaborator and wife, As they did the first time Ann Druyan. The students pondered around, CFI/Fort Lauderdale Sagan’s famous “extraordinary claims” held the biggest event. Working quote (a phrase he didn’t originate but closely with FLASH, the James Randi Educational Founda tion (JREF), and Broward College, CFI/Fort Lauderdale brought to- gether superb speakers, including James Randi, the acclaimed magician, skeptic, and founder of JREF; Nicole Gugliucci, a radio astronomer at the Na- tional Radio Astronomy Observa tory; Russell Rom an ella, associate director of engineering and technology at NASA’s John F. Kennedy Space Center; Jeffrey Bennett, astrophysicist and author; and John Boswell, creator of the musical web series Symphony of Science. More than three hundred people at- tended the day-long event. In addition to the speakers, there were teacher work- shops, science displays put to gether by local middle-school students, robot and rocket-launching demonstrations, activ- ities for children—including an edible solar system—planetarium programs, telescope workshops, magic shows, and Teacher Douglas Ryan and his physics/chemistry students celebrate Carl Sagan Day stargazing. at Round Rock High School in Round Rock, Texas.

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did widely popularize) and discussed As news spread about Carl Sagan No other scientist has been able to how they could apply the concept to Day, it became clear how many people reach, teach, and influence so many their own lives. Next, the students made have been influenced by his work. The nonscientists in such a meaningful way, birthday hats and adorned them with scientists at NASA’s Kepler Mission and that is why we honor Carl Sagan, Cosmos-themed decorations. The high- held an essay contest based on Sagan’s remember his work, and marvel at the light of each celebration was a visit from allegory of the “shores of the cosmic cosmos he helped us understand. We Ryan’s former student, Cassie Landrum, ocean” as developed in Cosmos. Win ning look forward to even more outstanding who shared with each class how study- entries—and many celebrity guest es- celebrations for Carl Sagan Day 2011. ing Cosmos had positively influenced her says—can be read online at http:// (A very special thanks goes to Ann education and career: “Cosmos intrigued kepler.nasa.gov/education/sagan. Stu - Druyan and Druyan-Sagan Asso ciates, me with its ease of interdisciplinary dents on college campuses sponsored Inc., for their gracious permission to use ideas. I was able to think about science as “Talk Like Carl Sagan” days, and nerdb images and content from Cosmos and for making it possible for so many CFI Sagan presents it—as a historian, anthro- oyfriend.com offered ad vice on how to branches and campus groups to screen pologist, physicist, astronomer, etc.— dress like Carl Sagan, complete with tan Cosmos for this special occasion.) n [which] made it less daunting to me. I blazer and blue Oxford shirt. Ultimately, am still driven by the curiosity that Carl Sagan Day was such a hit that it Lauren Becker is vice president and director of drove Sagan and inspired by the inter- was the eighth-most-tweeted subject on outreach at the Center for Inquiry. She may be connectedness of all the disciplines.” Twit ter the morning of November 10. reached at [email protected].

More Disconnects about EMF and Cell Phones Robert L. Park

EMF Exposure: Does the Waving of The EMF hysteria did not end un - Epidemiology: Fundamental the Trees Make the Wind Blow? til 1997 when the National Acad emy of Laws of Nature Take Precedence. Identifying the cause of a disease is the Sciences, persuaded that the public With the abrupt emergence of cell- first step in its treatment. Epidemiology, would not accept an argument based on phone technology a decade ago, the anti- the branch of medicine concerning cau- quantum mechanics, released a study science monster talked its way out of sation, seeks to establish cor relation be- that found no effect of EMF on the bondage. Devra Davis, who is not quite tween exposure to a possible cause of human body. Almost overnight, power a scientist but has a PhD in something disease and actual occurrence of a dis- lines were no longer believed to cause called Science Studies, has donned the ease. Data must be taken over a period of . The anti-science monster had mantle of Paul Brodeur to write Discon- been chained, but it was still alive. years to allow for latency; if no disease is nect: The Truth About Cell Phone Radia- seen, a longer latency period is assumed tion, What the Industry Has Done to Hide to be necessary. When there is no record It, and How to Protect Your Family. of individual exposure to a potential Davis is making the same mistake cause of disease, people are asked to recall that Paul Brodeur did: not recognizing what they did years earlier. that the universe is governed by quan- Exposure to electromagnetic fields Almost overnight, tum physics. Einstein pointed out a cen- (EMF) in modern society is ubiquitous, power lines were no tury ago that electromagnetic radiation but it was not thought to be a problem behaves like units of energy called pho- until 1989, when the New Yorker began longer believed to tons, equal to Planck’s constant multi- running a series of hopelessly misin- cause cancer. plied by the frequency. These photons formed articles by Paul Brodeur linking don’t cause any trouble unless their en- EMF to cancer. The articles were The anti-science ergy matches some natural excitation. turned into a series of books with lurid There isn’t much to excite them until titles such as Currents of Death. Brodeur monster had been they reach the energy of molecular vi- had no background in science, but he chained, but it was brations in the micro wave region. This managed to arouse the anti-science is the part of the spectrum used in cell monster that had been in hiding since still alive. phones; in principle your cell phone World War II. The media, trained to might cook your goose—but it would give both sides of the story even if one take a very long time. side has no science or evidence behind At even higher frequencies you it, was of no help. reach the red end of the visible spec-

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT trum, then yellow, orange, green, and fi- ergy are about a million times more en- this point we can expect wilder and nally blue. It isn’t until you reach the ex- ergetic than a microwave photon, but wilder claims of effects from cell-phone treme blue end of the visible spectrum they cannot penetrate very deeply and radiation.n that there is a problem. At that level of therefore induce only skin . energy, photons can eject photoelec- However, in December there were re- Robert L. Park is professor of physics at the Uni- trons, creating mutant strands of DNA ports that children exposed to cell- versity of Maryland and a Committee for Skepti- that can become cancerous. This is the phone radiation while in the womb cal Inquiry fellow. This piece is from his What’s lowest energy level at which a photon have an increased risk of behavioral New electronic newsletter, archived at www.bob- can induce cancer. Photons of this en- problems several years after birth. At park.org.

Cottingley Fairies Debunker Geoffrey Crawley Dies Robert Sheaffer

British photographer Geoffrey Craw- cles, and also of investigations by ley died this past October 29 at the age British journalist Joe Cooper, the of eighty-three. He gained great repute cousins—now elderly ladies—con- in his field, serving as editor-in-chief of fessed to the hoax in the early 1980s. the British Journal of Pho tography for Elsie simply copied drawings of fairies over twenty years. How ever, he is best from a book onto cardboard, which the remembered today as the man who de- girls then cut out and held in place with finitively revealed what has been called hatpins. Crawley showed that retouch- the world’s longest-running photo- ing of the photos must have taken graphic hoax, the Cotting ley fairies. place. Cooper found an earlier, un-re- The story of the Cottingley fairies touched version of “Frances and the began in 1917, when ten-year-old Fairies” that was much less impressive Frances Griffiths and her sixteen-year- than the extensively retouched version old cousin Elsie Wright snapped two later published, thus proving that photos that appeared to show the girls Crawley’s analysis was indeed correct.n cavorting with fairies in the English countryside at Cottingley. The photos caused great excitement within the local New Zealand Skeptics Leader Denis Dutton Dies Theosophical Society, a Spiritualist-ori- Vicki Hyde ented group with doctrines that in cluded the existence of fairies. The photos soon We’ve lost another light against the selors who convince clients that their came to the attention of Sir Arthur darkness. problems stem from suppres sed memo- Conan Doyle, the famous creator of Denis Dutton died of cancer in ries of infant ritual sexual abuse. He Sherlock Holmes, who was a dedicated Christchurch, New Zealand, on De cem - spent year after year fielding calls about Spiritualist. Doyle wrote a series of arti- ber 28, 2010, at the age of sixty-six. Dut- everything from alien abductions to cles, and later a book, proclaiming the ton was a founder and member of the moa sightings, managing to retain a fairy photos as genuine. Many presumed New Zealand Skeptics back in 1984 sense of humor throughout. that the photos had to be hoaxes, but it when it was known as the New Zealand What more could you wish for from was never shown how they were made, Committee for Scientific Investigation someone once referred to as “New and the girls continued to insist that the of the Paranormal. For many years he Zealand’s Arch-Skeptic”? n photos were authentic. was the face of organized skepticism Vicki Hyde is the immediate past chair of the There the matter stood for over fifty in New Zealand, fronting up to the New Zealand Skeptics. years. Starting in the 1970s, Crawley media with many a pithy comment and undertook “a scientific and analytical a wry sense of humor. New Age ‘Power Balance’ approach” to the photos. He published He had a deeply moral sense; he ab- Bracelets Worthless a ten-part series of articles in the British horred the exploitation we so often see The manufacturer of Power Balance, Journal of Photography from 1982–1983, underpinning skeptical issues. He re- the popular bands embedded with holograms said to adjust the body’s vibrations, concluding that the fairy photos could served his scorn for the shysters willing has admitted its product does not work. not have been produced with the cam- to exploit vulnerable people for their To read this story, era the girls used without darkroom own gain: psychics claiming to be in visit csicop.org trickery. As a result of Crawley’s arti- touch with dead loved ones and coun-

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[ COMMENTARY

Washington Rally to Restore Sanity a Plea for Reason

BENJAMIN WOLOZIN

edia reports of Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert’s dismissed by referencing the Bible. Glo - “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear” held on Oc- bal warming is dismissed by claiming that more evidence is needed. Strate gies Mtober 30, 2010, in Washington, D.C., largely de- for avoiding evidence are highly effec- scribed it as a lighthearted day of comedy. Having been at tive for sound bites because they cir- the rally, my sense is that the message driving the massive cumvent any need to describe what ev- idence would be considered acceptable turnout of more than 220,000 people was much more pro- and cogent. This journey into surrealism found. It was a rallying cry for reason. is particularly upsetting because it leads Stewart and Colbert performed for three hours, criticiz- to bad policies that are ill equipped to cope with the very real challenges facing ing the irrational and the alarmist rhetoric flooding our our society. media outlets and appealing for “sanity.” Many—if not Listening to the news, I often get the all—of the readers of the SKEPTICAL feeling that my desire for “reason” in INQUIRER are aware of the problem: public debate is shared with only a tiny, many politicians and pundits routinely isolated fraction of the population. ignore scientific evidence, and the pub- Attend ing the rally, though, provided lic follows their lead. Public figures me with an entirely different, optimistic seem to have perfected the use of the perspective. The crowd was immense, far sound bite to appear thoughtful while larger than any of us who attended ex- irrationally dismissing scientific evi- pected. People streamed into the Na- dence on such subjects as evolution, tional Mall from all sides, filling the global warming, or loss of biodiversity. streets from blocks away and packing to- Even debates on social-policy issues, gether—shoulder to shoulder—on the such as health care, regularly avoid the Mall. The atmosphere was full of humor Benjamin Wolozin is in most obvious, irrefutable truths: for ex- and festivity, but the humor reflected a the Departments of ample, the increasing cost of health care surprisingly unified thoughtfulness. For Pharmacology and Neu- instance, despite being packed together, rology at Boston Univer- in the United States is driven in large sity School of Medicine. part by the aging of our population (re- requests from crowd members to pass He is a member of the flecting the success of medical science), others were met almost universally with Committee for Skeptical and the elderly have more health care the same response, as people stepped back Inquiry’s executive needs—and therefore more health care and comically announced, “Yes! I will let council. His e-mail address is costs—than the young. you through, because I am a very reason- [email protected]. The routine is familiar. Evolution is able person!”

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The rally was filled with thousands of tially dangerous situations—by inter- homemade signs, most of which ad- facing incomplete data to create a com- dressed the theme of the day in a man- plete analysis—in al most every conclu- ner that was both poignant and really sion derived throughout our thought funny (see www.csicop.org/rally for processes. more examples). Some of the signs di- The ideas generated by the emotional rectly addressed the need for reason in brain are filtered through our logic cen- American political debates. For example, ters to create the seemingly rational one sign proclaimed, “It’s your brain, Use statements that we use in virtually every it!” Other signs mocked signs that are aspect of our lives. More knowledge, often used to convey extremist views at more security, or more training in logic rallies: one read “I disagree with you, but elicits greater reason, while ignorance, that doesn’t mean I think you are Hitler.” fear, and appeal to “belief ” elicits less rea- And finally, some were just nonsensical, son. Our belief systems also filter accept- such as one that stated, “Oooh . . . Shiny!” ance of information. The emotional brain Jon Stewart joked about the diver- rejects facts that challenge our belief sys- sity of the crowd, saying facetiously that tems. One can immediately see how the participants were a “perfect cross-sec- emotional appeals—such as those incit- tion of American society” and making up ing fear, eliciting anger, or appealing to the percentages of each demo graphic. religious beliefs—could be used to lead However, the crowd’s diversity was us toward irrational political outcomes striking. Attendees were young and old; by activating the emotional brain to by- there were many families (including pass more reasoned responses. mine) and people from all across the The importance of emotion in our United States. I was also struck by the actions, even seemingly rational ones, large number of women wearing head- creates a challenge for “rational” politi- scarves in the Islamic tradition. The in- cal debate. Information that questions tolerance that has in fected our political a belief system is difficult to incorporate debate particularly affects those within because the “emotional” brain rejects Islamic and East Asian demographics. such material. Knowledge, though, can I imagine that for some of these atten- filter in and affect our beliefs. Framing dees, the rally was about much more arguments in the context of childhood than light humor. or family is a particularly effective The use of humor to deliver political means of conveying information, be- messages conveys much about how cause family and children are emotion- human brains work. Authors such as ally vulnerable topics. , George Lakoff, and Humor is another effective mecha- Sam Harris have written excellent nism used to convey knowledge that books that cover this subject. Increas- might challenge our belief systems. ing evidence indicates that the beliefs Knowledge or logic gained through we espouse are developed through a humor elicits positive emotions, which complex interplay of knowledge, emo- make us feel less threatened and more tion, and logic. Many of our conscious accepting. The power of Jon Stewart’s beliefs originate in preconscious, emo- and Steven Colbert’s messages lies in tional areas of the brain. The emotional their skillful use of humor to question the brain, also called the limbic system, plays many irrational beliefs and behaviors that a surprising and critical role in allowing pervade our society today. Thus, although people to derive conclusions from the “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear” knowledge that is often incomplete. was humorous, for many at the rally The limbic system plays a primary role humor was the medium, but reason was n in helping us to rapidly evaluate poten- Wolozin Jacqueline of courtesy Photos the message.

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[ SPECIAL REPORT

Strange Problems in the Wegman Report

A computer scientist discusses the roles of plagiarism, conspiracies, anti-science memes, and intense beliefs in a global-warming denying report.

JOHN R. MASHEY

he high-profile “Wegman report” (Wegman et al. Discovery of Plagiarism Canadian blogger “Deep Climate” un - 2006) strongly criticized the steeply rising “hockey covered plagiarism in the Wegman re - Tstick” temperature graph that was created by climate port in late 2009, accumulating ten pages scientists Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley, and Malcolm of near-verbatim material copied from paleoclimatologist and hockey-stick Hughes and later used in the United Nations Intergovern- coauthor Bradley and others, such as: mental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment A cross section of most temperate (IPCC 2001). forest trees will show an alternation of lighter and darker bands, each of The Wegman report was prepared by which is usually continuous around a team led by statistician Edward Weg- the tree circumference. (Bradley 1999, 398) man of George Mason Uni versity at the request of U.S. Representatives Joe Bar- A cross section of a temperate forest tree shows variation of lighter and ton (Republican from Texas) and Ed darker bands that are usually contin- Whitfield (Republican from Tennessee), uous around the circumference of the both strong opponents of the scientific tree. (Wegman et al. 2006, 13) consensus about climate change. The term “coral” is generally applied The Wegman report, presented in to members of the order Scleractinia, 2006 at a hearing of a congressional sub- which have hard calcareous skeletons committee chaired by Whitfield, re - supporting softer tissues. . . . (Bradley peated numerous well-cataloged and 1999, 247) long-debunked anti-science assertions, The term “coral” refers to the biolog- especially those claiming a conspiracy ical order Scleractinia, which have hard calcium-based skeletons sup- John R. Mashey is a com- among climate scientists. Although rarely mentioned in peer-reviewed science pub- porting softer tissues. (Wegman et al. puter scientist whose ca- 2006, 15) reer has extended from lications, the report nevertheless imme- Bell Labs to the Silicon Val- diately became a major source for climate Deep Climate (2010a) posted the en- ley. Many of the wide vari- anti-science articles, blogs, op-eds, and tire ten pages using colored highlight- ety of scientists he has books. The report is also a key to Virginia ing that quickly shows the obvious cut- worked with have used Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s attack and-paste/edit process. software or hardware he on the Uni versity of Virginia and Based on Deep Climate’s work, helped create. For the past few years he has Michael Mann (Russell 2010). That cer- Brad ley filed a plagiarism complaint in been studying climate science, anti-science, tainly resembles a famous witch hunt and energy issues. March 2010 but kept it quiet. Bradley’s (Monty Python 1975). expert work was not only plagiarized

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but also often distorted to weaken or Climate anti-science beliefs are intense plagiarism, but those problems have even invert his own conclusions by peo- enough to generate frequent death grown ever since. Yet Barton still stands ple with zero relevant experience. I then threats against climate scientists. My behind the Wegman report. extended Deep Climate’s research and analysis documents the Wegman report Half of the report’s eighty references added much more in a comprehensive as filled with serious errors, biases, bad were uncited in the text itself, a tactic 250-page analysis of the Wegman re- science, and frequent repetition of long- called “bibliography padding” that is port, “Strange Scholarship in the Weg- debunked anti-science memes. Its min- frequently used by undergraduates to man Report: A Façade for the Climate imal statistics use another’s (incorrect) create an illusion of expertise. Many Anti-Science PR Cam paign” (Mashey computer code (Deep Climate 2010b). references use “grey literature” (not 2010b). USA Today (Vergano 2010a; The Wegman report was promoted peer-reviewed), including the key Vergano 2010b; Vergano 2010c; Vergano by Congressmen Barton and Whitfield source (“MM05x”) of many anti-sci- 2010d) reported that George Mason as “independent, impartial, expert” work ence memes. “MM05x” quotes an arti- University was investigating. Plagiarism by a team of “eminent statisticians.” It cle that appeared not in Science but in experts called the plagiarisms “obvious” was none of those things. Deep Climate the Journal of Scientific Explora tion,a and “shocking.” Some defenders created had unearthed plagiarism (not “expert”) favorite publication of pro-fringe-sci- their own fanciful definitions of the and distortion (not “impartial”), then ence researchers. It is filled with schol- word to deny that plagiarism had taken found that a Barton staffer provided arly looking papers on extrasensory place. Others contended that even if it was plagiarism, the Wegman report’s conclusions were still true. Then some claimed that Bradley himself was a pla- giarizer, blackmailer, or liar. The debate Half of the report’s eighty re mained intense. references were uncited in Pseudoscience, Anti-Science, and Intense Beliefs the text itself, a tactic called In pseudoscience, people promote long- debunked ideas as scientific (Mashey “bibliography padding” that is 2009). Anti-science obscures real science via the public-relations and propaganda frequently used by techniques that were well honed in the tobacco wars and are sometimes em- undergraduates to create ployed by the same people elsewhere (Oreskes and Conway 2010). an illusion of expertise. SI readers are familiar with chaotic, amateur, or amusing pseudoscience ef- forts. Anti-science, in contrast, is well much of the source material to the Weg- perception (ESP), UFOs, reincarnation, funded, professionally organized, and man team (not “independent”). In my inexplicable weight gain in suffocated not amusing: tobacco-industry anti-sci- initial investigation I found another sheep, dog astrology, and other fasci- ence has damaged the health of mil- twenty-five pages with plagiarism, to- nating topics. Most of its articles are lions. Although the Wegman report taling thirty-five when combined with available online (Society for Scien tific contained some pseudoscience, it was Deep Climate’s findings (Mashey Exploration 2010). Occa sionally proper really part of a well-organized twenty- 2010b). Originally intended to be a skeptical debunking papers do slip into year anti-science campaign (Mashey short report, my analysis grew to its print there. 2010a). That campaign offered much current 250 pages as interconnected The Wegman report also referenced evidence of a real conspiracy, in contrast problems in the Weg man report multi- a 1987 article, “Magnetics May Hold to the climate-science opponents’ un- plied. My analysis eventually examined Key to Ozone Layer Problems” by Tom supported claims alleging a conspiracy all ninety-one Weg man report pages Valentine. Its inclusion is ut terly bizarre, by climate researchers. Not all conspir- plus related testimony, publications, and especially in a report criticizing the qual- acies are imaginary—SI readers should actions. “Climategate” started big and ity of review elsewhere. A 1987 ozone assess the evidence before dismissing shrank, despite strong public-relations article was at best irrelevant bibliography conspiracy hypotheses. efforts. The problems with the Weg man padding. The publication in which Pseudoscience beliefs can be strong. report started small with a few pages of Valentine’s article appeared, MAGNETS

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[ SPECIAL REPORT

in Your Future, was an obscure fringe-sci- http://deepclimate.files.wordpress.com/ port plagiarized. USA Today (November 22). ence magazine. Valen tine often wrote on 2010/09/strange-scholarship-v1-02.pdf. Available online at www.usatoday.com/weat Monty Python. 1975. Monty Python and the Holy her/climate/globalwarming/2010-11-21-clim fuelless engines, , and con- Grail. “Witch Scene” available online at ate-report-questioned_N.htm. spiracy theories for the tabloid the Na- www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp_l5ntikaU. ———. 2010c. Climate science critic responds to . His bio stated that he was Oreskes, Naomi, and Erik Conway. 2010. Mer- allegations. USA Today (November 23). Avail- tional Tattler chants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists able online at www.usatoday.com/weather/cl the “Miracle editor.” Later his talk show Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke imate/globalwarming/2010-11-21-climate- often promoted “black helicopter” con- to Global Warming. New York: Bloomsbury report-questioned_N.htm. spiracies. Never the less, some people re- Press. ———. 2010d. Wegman report round-up. USA Russell, Wesley. 2010. RE: Civil Investigative De- Today (November 23). Available online at main unshakeably certain of the Wegman mand No. 3-MM. Available online at http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sci report’s credibility. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginia encefair/post/2010/11/wegman-report- politics/New Mann CID.PDF. round-up/1. A short article cannot convey the Vergano, Dan. 2010a. University investigating Wegman, Edward, David Scott, and Yasmin Said. pervasiveness and strangeness of prob- prominent climate science critic. USA Today 2006. Ad hoc committee report on the “hockey lems with the Wegman report. Skeptics (October 8). Available online at http://conte stick” global climate reconstruction. House En- nt.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/ ergy and Commerce Committee Republicans should read my long report to assess the post/2010/10/wegman-plagiarism-investigat (July 14). Available online at http://republicans claims made here. I expect to update ion-/1. .energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142 my online report (Mashey 2010b) in a ———. 2010b. Experts claim 2006 climate re - 006_Wegman_Report.pdf. few months and will be glad to be in- formed of any honest errors. n

References Bradley, Raymond S. 1999. Paleoclimatology—Re- constructing Climates of the Quaternary, Sec- ond Edition. San Diego, CA: Academic Press/Elsevier. Where can you hear the leading voices of skepticism and science on a weekly Deep Climate. 2010a. Wegman report update, part 1: More dubious scholarship in full basis? On Point of Inquiry, the Center for Inquiry’s podcast and radio show, colour. Available online at http://deepclimate which is now one of the most popular science programs online. .org/2010/07/29/wegman-report-update- Listen for free at www.pointofinquiry.orgtoday! part-1-more-dubious-scholarship-in-full- colour. (Deep Climate has made many posts, but this reference is a good starting point.) ———. 2010b. Replication and due diligence, Each week, Point of Inquiry brings you incisive interviews, Wegman style. Available online at http:// features, and commentary, focusing on the three research areas of the deepclimate.org/2010/11/16/replication- Center for Inquiry: pseudoscience and the paranormal; alternative medicine; and-due-diligence-wegman-style. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate and religion, ethics, and society. Change). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Sci- entific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third IPCC Scientific Assess ment. Edited In addition to new shows every Friday, the entire archive of past episodes by J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, et al. can be accessed online at www.pointofinquiry.org. Cambridge University Press. Available online at www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index. Previous popular guests include: htm. Society for Scientific Exploration. 2010. Journal RICHARD DAWKINS | SAM HARRIS of Scientific Exploration past research articles. Available online at http://www.scientificexpl NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON | ANN DRUYAN oration.org/journal/articles.html. and many more! Mashey, John R. 2009. Science bypass: Anti-sci- ence petition to APS from folks with SEPP, Hosted by George C. Marshall Institute, Heartland, CATO. Available online at www.desmog blog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/ 2009 science bypass v3 0.pdf. ———. 2010a. Crescendo to Climategate ca- cophony: Behind the 2006 Wegman report and two decades of climate anti-science. Available online at www.desmogblog.com/ sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/crescendo climategate caco phony v1 0.pdf. Chris Mooney Robert M. Price Karen Stollznow ———. 2010b. Strange scholarship in the Weg- man report: A façade for the climate anti-sci- www.PointofInquiry.org ence PR campaign. Available online at

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[ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is CSI’s senior research fellow and author of numerous books, including Looking for a Miracle. His website is at www.joenickell.com.

Heaven’s Stenographer: The ‘Guided’ Hand of Vassula Ryden

he claims to receive communica- larized” her marriage in the rites of the effigies) and any reputed visions or tions not only from her guardian Greek Orthodox Church, to which she messages. The Church is all too aware Sangel, “Daniel,” but also from still belongs (“Vassula” 2010). Never - of delusional persons and pious frauds. Jesus and even Yahweh himself, who theless, Ryden says that God revealed However, such matters are usually left guide her hand to produce written mes- to her the Sacred Heart (a Catholic to the local bishop, and investigations sages. She has provoked both skepticism symbol of Christ’s love for the human are typically less about science than and credulity from Catholic laity and family) to show her the equality of all about how a claim comports with clergy, and her texts—an amalgam of faiths (Ryden 2004). Catholic teachings. Bible verses and Orthodox and Catholic In the mid-1990s, the Vatican’s I determined to take an objective teachings—have helped her attract an Congregation for the Doctrine of the look at three aspects of Ryden’s pur- increasing following. Some claim to Faith issued two notices of concern ported messages (within my own areas have witnessed supernatural experiences about Ryden. The first came in 1995, of expertise): first, the distinctive hand- at her talks, al though I did not when I pointing out “several negative elements writing (I am author of textbooks on witnessed her first appearance in West- and errors.” It requested that bishops writing and forgery, including Pen, Ink, ern New York in 2004. I have since refuse to give her the opportunity to and Evidence [Nickell 1990]); second, sought to learn just who Vassula Ryden spread her questionable ideas within the text (I have a PhD in English, ex- is and more about the phenomenon be- their dioceses and asked them not to perience in examining unusual texts, hind that name (Ryden 1995; “Vassula” treat her writings or speeches as “super- and membership in the International 2010; Tokasz 2004). natural.” The following year, another Association of Forensic Linguists) notification encouraged priests to “ex- [Nickell 2008]; and third, whether Vassula ercise serious spiritual discernment” re- Ryden might have a fantasy-prone per- Born to Greek Orthodox parents in garding Ryden’s messages, declaring sonality (I have studied this trait for Heliopolis, Egypt, on January 18, 1942, that they must be considered merely years, especially under the direction of Vassula Ryden emigrated to Europe “private meditations” and not divine the late psychologist Robert A. Baker when she was fifteen. She says as a revelations. However, some of her [Nickell 1997]). teenager she saw herself surrounded by Catholic supporters observe that the souls of the dead, although she claims church does not completely discount Handwriting to have been indifferent to religion for her teachings, and the publications of Ryden insists that the messages she re- a time. Following marriage, the birth of her organization, the American Asso- ceives and writes down are not the re- two sons, divorce, and remarriage, she ciation for True Life in God, have ob- sult of spiritualistic phenomena such as claims to have begun receiving mes- vious Catholic trappings (“Vassula” channeling or automatic writing (“Vas- sages from her own invisible “guardian 2010; Tokasz 2004). sula” 2010). However, neither phenom- angel,” Daniel. “I almost freaked out,” The Catholic Church is skittish enon is defined as being limited to spir- she said (Ryden 2004). That occurred about such freelancers—urging caution its of the dead; either may in volve in late 1985 while she was living in toward supposedly supernatural phe- interaction with any type of alleged Bangladesh. Five years later, she “regu- nomena (such as stigmata or weeping nonphysical beings, such as angels,

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within, then are written in a stately hand- writing—distinct from her own—as she allows her hand to be guided supernatu- rally” (“About” 1995). In ter est ingly enough, the same “distinct” script that is used for messages from the angel “Daniel” is employed by “Jesus,” “Mary,” and “Yahweh” (see figure 1), rather than each entity having his or her own indi- vidual handwriting. Keeping in mind that Ryden is an artist (“About” 1995), it seems notewor- thy that the “guided” handwriting has the characteristics of a script that is ar- tistically drawn rather than naturally and freely written. It is a “mannered” or af- fected hand, rendered in a self-con- sciously non-slanted style—rather like the so-called “vertical writing” that was taught in American and Canadian schools from 1890 to 1900 but was deemed too time consuming to produce practically and subsequently abandoned (Nickell 1990, 124, 126; Osborn 1978, 140). Most mainstream scripts, in tended for right-handed persons to render with some speed, slope in the forward direction, as does Ryden’s ordinary handwriting. In - terest ingly, an alteration in slant is one of the most common ploys used for disguis- ing handwriting (Hilton 1982, 169; Os- born 1978, 147, 149, 211). Use of this sim- ple change can thus instantly impart a new look to an entire page. The “stately” hand also differs from Ryden’s in size (being larger than hers), another common disguise ploy (Nickell 1996, 49). Apart from the “stately” affectation, Figure 1. Handwriting produced by artist Vassula Ryden—supposedly “supernaturally guided”—is drawn rather than freely written. (The same mannered script is used for messages from “Yahweh,” “Jesus,” “Mary,” and her the supposedly supernatural handwrit- guardian angel, “Daniel.”) It contrasts with her own handwriting. ing is essentially a formal, copybook version of Ryden’s own naturally jotted deities, extraterrestrials, or the like “dictation” each day (Carroll 1995, ix; script that alternates with the “stately” (Guiley 2000, 25–26, 70–71). So, “Vassula” 2010). From a scientific per- hand in her notebooks. The “stately” Ryden is by definition a channeler and spective, (assuming it is not deliberately hand avoids some of her script’s idio- an automatic writer. contrived) such a phenomenon is attrib- syncrasies, yet it still has mostly printed Reportedly, the messages began in uted to the ideomotor effect, in which a capitals just like her own handwriting. late November 1985 when Ryden was participant unconsciously produces a On occasion, one of the copybook about to make a shopping list. Her hand movement. The same psychological phe- forms sneaks back into her natural suddenly began to move, seemingly nomenon is responsible for the motion script (replacing, for instance, her indi- without her control, to form words and of rods and pendulums, Ouija- vidualistic f, which has a backwardly drawings, initiating a phenomenon that board planchette movement, table tip- made loop, with the standard copybook continues to the present day. The self- ping, and the like (Randi 1995, 169–70). f ) (see Ryden 1995, 171, 223). styled visionary reportedly receives Ryden’s messages supposedly “come Consistent with its neat, drawn ap- about four to six hours of guided-hand through dictation by an audible voice pearance is the fact that the “guided”

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handwriting is done on lined paper, with the lines showing in some of the reproduced pages (Ryden 1995, e.g., 232–33). This is consistent with the use of eye-hand coordination. One suspects that if Ryden were prevented from see- One suspects that if Ryden were ing what was being written, the entities supposedly guiding her hand would be prevented from seeing what was unable to so faithfully follow the lines! I invite Ryden to accept my invitation being written, the entities supposedly to perform a scientific test to refute or confirm this suspicion. guiding her hand would be unable to Text so faithfully follow the lines! I invite On January 25, 1987, Ryden wrote: Courage daughter, I, Jesus Christ have Ryden to accept my invitation to instructed you that the cross you bear is My Cross of Peace and Love, but to perform a scientific test to refute bear My precious Cross, daughter, you will have to do much self-sacrifice; be or confirm this suspicion. strong and bear my Cross with love; with Me you will share it and you will share My sufferings; I was pleased to hear your prayer of surrender; in sur- rendering to Me I will lift you to the heights and show you how I work; I will mould you, if you let Me, into a appear to be consistent with self-inflic- not love My Mother. I come through better person; you have given Me your tion [Nickell 2007, 59–66].) In one My Mother and I want you, dear consent to become My bride, so what communication with Bernas, Jesus sup- children, to come through My Mother on your journey back to Me. [sic] more natural for a bride to follow posedly said (Bernas 1999, 23): her Spouse? I am glad you realize your I choose the word “Come” inten- worthlessness, do not fear, I love you My Suffering Soul— tionally, not past tense. I still come anyway. . . . (Ryden 1995, 233–34) This is your Beloved. I have come as through My Mother. Graces are promised to embrace you with the poured forth through My Mother, Is this really a message from Jesus spirit of peace. Take this time, and the Graces come from Me. have respite from the wicked assaults guiding Ryden’s hand? Not only is the I am especially familiar with these handwriting the identical, mannered of the evil one. My child, you have bent, but you have not broken. This two groups of writings, although they script that is also used for her “Daniel,” pleases your Beloved. . . . are supposedly received by clairaudi- “Yahweh,” and “Mary,” but the perpet- My child—humble yourself now, ence (trance hearing) rather than by au- ual use of semicolons is another simi- and ascend the hill of your Beloved tomatic writing. (Therefore, errors of with your Beloved. . . . larity from alleged speaker to alleged grammar and the like could be attrib- speaker. All—except, appropriately, Nancy Fowler, a homemaker in uted to mistaken transcription by the Daniel—call her “daughter” (Ryden Conyers, Georgia, claimed for several percipient.) 1995, 153, 188, 225), and they refer to years to be receiving messages from both Now, whereas Vassula Ryden’s themselves with the same construction: Jesus and, more often, the Virgin Mary. “Jesus” frequently identifies himself as “I, Jesus,” “I, God,” “I ‘i Panayia’ ” (Greek (The latter appeared punctually on the “I, Jesus,” Lilian Bernas’s Jesus persona for “Our Lady, most Holy”) (Ryden thirteenth of each month, and I was able never does, nor does the one channeled 1995, 155, 231, 293). to attend a session [Nickell 1993, 196– by Nancy Fowler. There are many other Ryden’s purported messages can be 97]). One message from “Jesus” in- differences among the three sets of compared with other alleged commu- structed the faithful (Fowler 1993): texts; for example, the dominant theme nications from Jesus. One set of writ- of each: Fowler’s is the near-deification Come through My Mother on your ings was “received from Jesus” by Lilian journey back to Me. From this very of the Virgin Mary (an emphasis some- Bernas (1999), a purported stigmatic. cross I give the world My perfect times disparagingly referred to as “Mar- (Stigmata are the supposedly supernat- love. I give the world, I give everyone iolatry”), Bernas’s is the importance of urally received wounds resembling in the world, My dear, Holy Mother. suffering, and Ryden’s is the need for those of Christ. However, Bernas’s Please, if you accept My Love, then divine love and guidance. how can you reject, ignore, not honor, wounds—which I have seen up close— Style also differs from channeler to

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dications of fantasizing all suggest that Vassula Ryden is not in touch with super natural entities but is simply en - gaging in self-deception that in turn de - If God deigns to use the English ceives the credulous. Her automatic writ- ings therefore are not works of revelation language, should we not expect but simply of pious imagination. n it to be rendered accurately? References About Vassula Ryden. 1995. Publisher’s book- cover text, Ryden 1995. Bernas, Lilian. 1999. This Is the Home of the Fa- ther.... Poole, England: privately printed. Carroll, Robert J. 1995. I am your guardian angel and my name is Daniel. In Ryden 1995, ix– xiv. Christopher, Milbourne. 1970. ESP, Seers and Psy- chics: What the Occult Really Is. New York: Crowell. Fowler, Nancy. 1990–93. Purported messages from Jesus, in Journal 1993. 3–8. channeler. Ryden’s “God” and “Jesus” (as would be correct, the misspelling “pan- Guiley, Rosemary Ellen. 2000. The Encyclopedia well as “Daniel”) speak similarly, often ick,” faulty subject/verb agreement (e.g., of Ghosts and Spirits. New York: Checkmark Books. using convoluted diction (for example, “Joy and Peace is”), and many others. At Hilton, Ordway. 1982. Scientific Examination of “do not leave yourself be drifted away” times the respective errors are eerily sim- Questioned Documents, revised ed. New York: [144], instead of “do not let yourself ilar, as when “God” uses “do” for “make” Elsevier Science. Journal of Reported Teachings and Messages of Our drift away”); wrong prepositions (e.g., (e.g., “do not get discouraged when you Lord and Our Living Mother at Conyers, Geor- “irrespective to their deeds” [146], rather do errors”) just as Ryden does (e.g., “I do gia, USA. 1993. (“Compiled by Our Loving Mother’s Children,” P.O. Box 309, Conyers, than “irrespective of ”); missing prepo- so many mistakes”) (see Ryden 1995, 22, GA 30207), December. sitions (such as in “I, Yahweh will re- 89, 93, 235). Nickell, Joe. 1990. Pen, Ink, and Evidence. mind them in this call many events” Reprinted New Castle, Delaware: Oak Knoll Fantasy-Proneness Press. [150], wherein “of” is missing after ———. 1993. Looking for a Miracle. Buffalo, NY: “call”); subject/verb agreement error From the evidence, it looks like Ryden’s Prometheus Books. channeled automatic writings are mere ly ———. 1996. Detecting Forgery: Forensic Investi - (e.g., “the reasons that makes” [44]); gation of Documents. Lexington, KY: Uni - faulty auxiliary verbs (such as “I have re- emanations from a single source: her versity Press of Kentucky. stored you since the time you have ac- imagination. Indeed, she exhibits many ———. 1997. A study of fantasy proneness in the thirteen cases of alleged encounters in John cepted Me” [158], the second “have” traits of what is known as a “fantasy- Mack’s abduction. In The UFO Invasion, ed- being unnecessary); incorrect verb forms prone” personality: sane and normal but ited by Kendrick Frazier, Barry Karr, and Joe (e.g., “I will progress you” [163], “I fra- with a propensity to fantasize, as de - Nickell. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 237–44. granced you” [34], and “Jesus flourished scribed in a pioneering study by Sheryl ———. 2007. Adventures in Paranormal Investi- you” [42]); and so on. C. Wilson and Theo dore X. Barber gation. Lexington, KY: University Press of Kentucky. Ryden’s messages also have occa- (1983). Since childhood, Ryden has had ———. 2008. Linguist. Accessed April 3, 2010. sional misspellings: for example, “God” various “mystical” experiences. She has Available online at www.joenickell.com/ says, “work with Me writting [sic] down en countered apparitions (such as the Linguist/linguist1.html. Osborn, Albert S. 1978. Questioned Documents, My messages” (231), and he also uses souls of “dead people”), had vivid or second edition. Montclair, NJ: Patterson the misspellings “joyfull” (138) and “waking” dreams (with paranormal im- Smith. Randi, James. 1995. The Supernatural A–Z. Lon - “analising” (101, 105). If God deigns to agery), experienced religious visions, in- don: Brockhampton Press. use the English language, should we teracted with invisible companions, re- Ryden, Vassula. 1995. My Angel Daniel. Inde - not expect it to be rendered accurately? ceived messages from higher entities, pendence, MO: Trinitas. ———. 2004. Lecture at St. John Maronite Rite Before we become invested in imag- and had other experiences common to Catholic Church. Amherst, NY, May 31. ining what a deity might or might not many fantasizers (Carroll 1995; Ryden Tokasz, Jay. 2004. Controversial “messenger” to do, we should note that Ryden’s own 1995, xx–xxl). speak. The Buffalo News, May 31. “Vassula Ryden.” 2010. Wikipedia. Accessed April written text has similar faults—for ex- Taken together, the contrived hand - 30, 2010. Available online at http:// ample, using “sprung” when “sprang” writing, the linguistic lapses, and the in - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassula_Ryden.

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[ NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and co-founder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

Magic or Miracle? A Lesson Worth Remembering

ourteen years ago, I was aston- fooled scientists into thinking they had ished to read a brief article in the [ESP]). Steve FJanuary 1997 (vol. 61, no. 846) confirmed to me that he was a friend of Journal of the Society for Psychical Re- Nuzum at the time of Project Alpha. search (JSPR) written by parapsycholo- They lived in the same town, had been gist Alexander Imich, a retired chemist friends for at least five years, and used and president of the Anomalous Phe- to exchange tricks and ideas on magic. nomena Research Center in New York. However, it appears that Nuzum—who His article, titled “Joe A. Nuzum, A had specialized in escapology at the Little-Known Psychic,” describes Nu - time—was impressed by the press cov- zum as being “of the D.D. Home1 class.” erage that Steve had been able to gather The article consisted of a long list of mir- while pretending to be a psychic, and acles that Nuzum appeared to have per- he wanted to achieve the same result. formed over the years. However, my as- Nuzum started to perform mentalism Steve “Banachek” Shaw tonishment was due not to the tricks, most of which were pretty stan- impressiveness of the list but rather to the dard purchased items, and with these he following facts: 1) the conditions under convinced psychiatrist Berthold Sch - which these presumed miracles took wartz that he was the real thing. place were not described in the article; 2) Schwartz had already been “amazed” all of the “phenomena” described be- by Steve during Project Alpha, and he longed to the classic conjurers’ and fakirs’ continued to believe that Steve really repertoire; 3) it appeared that no magi- had psychic powers even after the hoax was revealed. When Steve tried to ex- cian was ever present at any of Nuzum’s plain to him via letters that Nuzum was demonstrations; and 4) there was no ref- a colleague and was just performing con- erence to the fact that Nuzum himself juring tricks, Schwartz refused to listen. was a magician. Steve told me: Banachek and Project Alpha There is a big difference between Today Nuzum, though still claiming on what Joe Nuzum is doing and what I did. My fiasco was an experiment. For his website to have “mastered many years parapsychologists had lamented mind-over-matter studies,” runs a that the only reason there was no sci- magic shop in . I contacted entifically documented evidence un - mentalist and friend Banachek who, der proper scientific controls was be- under his real name of Steve Shaw, was cause of the lack of proper funding to Project Alpha magicians Steve Shaw (with perform such controls. We had coun- one of the celebrated alumni of Project fork), Michael Edwards, and James Randi were tered and believed that this was not Alpha (in which young magicians featured on the cover of the Summer 1983 SI. the case and the lack of such docu-

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cusation was that in my letter I sug- gested a possible explanation for just one of the effects described by Imich, “In retrospect I should have known that the “Gray’s Anatomy case”! Joe [Nuzum] would have had no problem I wrote, in fact: Mr Imich, for example, describes an using people for his own benefit.” effect by Nuzum he witnessed, in which the corner of a selected page —Steve Shaw of a book appeared inside an enve- lope. A simple suggestion: Mr Imich could invite Nuzum to perform the same phenomenon again, but asking him, this time, never to touch the book (not even to take it [off ] of the shelf ). It would be interesting to see mentation lay in the parapsycholo- reply (JSPR 61[848], July 1997). How - if the same phenomenon will mani- gists’ pro-biased beliefs when they en- ever, his words regarding our doubts, I fest again (provided, of course, that both book and page are chosen at tered such experiments. MacDonald regret to say, were quite disappointing. Douglass gave a half a million dollars random by the experimenter, and not to study . . . Psycho kinetic Metal As usually happens in such cases, our “suggested” by Nuzum ...). Bending, PKMB, to Washington real question was avoided. University. Here was our chance to As Randi and I had pointed out in Apparently Imich overlooked these lines prove our point. our letters, the fact that the effects pre- in my letter. I went in not to take advantage, sented by Nuzum looked as if they were Remembering this episode today, not to gain anything, not to take taken directly from a magic catalog however, gives me the chance to also money, trips and vacations (unlike stress once more that it is not the duty of Joe), but simply to prove a valid should have raised flags. We did not in- point. I went in knowing full well sist, as Imich implied, that Nuzum’s ef- the critic to reproduce a claimed miracle. that I was going to expose the fraud fects were necessarily done by trickery. As should be widely known by now (but I was perpetrating. It became very But they at least may have been done in is apparently not to many researchers), hard at times. These were good peo- such a way. What is the real question, the burden of proof always rests on the ple, with good hearts, who became claimant. In this particular case, I would my friends. It was very hard knowing then? Given the highly suspect nature I was going to have to hurt these of Nuzum’s demonstrations, it was for have considered it quite impressive if people who had become a personal Imich of the utmost importance to as- Nuzum could perform his miracle with part of my life. Had I known they certain that they were not the result of a book provided by me. I would have would mean so much to me, maybe I trickery. The only way to do this was to made sure not to let him get anywhere would have done things a little dif- near the book before the test, a precau- ferent, I certainly would have kept ask a competent magician to participate my distance emotionally. in the tests. Randi, Steve, or I would tion that Imich did not take. Quoting On the other hand, I should have have loved to attend such demonstra- from his notes (JSPR, 61[846]: 336): “He read the signs in Joe Nuzum. I should tions, but the suggestion was ignored. took from my book-shelf a volume of have known that he certainly would Surprisingly, however, Imich wrote: Gray’s Anatomy and [he] opened it at page not have cared about hurting other 354” (emphasis added). people or lying to them; in retrospect The crusaders against the paranor- In a postscript to his article, Imich I should have known that Joe would mal usually do not tackle difficult have had no problem using people cases. They prefer to deal with events added that a report about “the latest, for his own benefit. easier to criticize. Mr. Randi, too, does never-previously-described paranormal not mention the “Gray’s Anatomy case,” events produced by Joe Nuzum” was in Project Alpha was designed to show an event out of the range of magical preparation. Fourteen years later, some how competent magicians can com- technique and much more difficult to are still waiting for some reliable proof of plete the same tasks as self-proclaimed discredit. I have challenged Mr. Poli- at least one real phenomenon produced psychics. It appears, however, that some doro to repeat this event, but I am not sure if he himself is a magician. by this self-proclaimed psychic. However, experts still don’t believe the phenom- we stopped holding our breaths a long ena aren’t genuine. Aside from the fact that this was the time ago. n first time I had heard of such a “chal- A “Challenge” Met lenge” (and the fact that Imich did not Note Because my comments (along with appear to have any qualification to 1. Victorian British medium Daniel D. Home, those of James Randi) were published judge whether an event is “out of the sometimes referred to as a super-psychic, was sup- posedly capable of moving objects, levitating, and in the Journal of the Society for Psychical range of magical technique” or not), producing all manner of supernatural phenomena Research, Imich decided to give us a what most surprised me about this ac- at will.

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[ THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI Massimo Pigliucci is professor of philosophy at the City University of New York–Lehman College, a fellow of the American Association for the Advance ment of Science, and author of Nonsense on Stilts: How to Tell Science from Bunk. His essays can be found at www.rationallyspeaking.org.

On Time Travel

The thing is, time travel is like visit- ing Paris. You can’t just read the guidebook. You’ve got to throw your- self in. Eat the food, use the wrong verbs, get charged double, and end up kissing complete strangers. Or is that just me? —Dr. Who, in the episode “The Long Game” (2005)

few days ago I received the new editorial schedule for the SKEP - A TICAL INQUIRER from the editor of this magazine, Ken Frazier. There was a peculiarity concerning when my next column was due: three days before I received the e-mail! I checked with Ken, and there was no error. Because of a new approach to scheduling, my next column really was due in the past— though I was told I would get a reprieve of about two weeks. Coinci dentally, at the time I was also reading an introduc- tory book on metaphysics—which in - cluded a discussion of time traveling— as well as watching some episodes of the BBC series Dr. Who, which is all about time travel (and no, I wasn’t watching the series while reading the book and the e-mail; my ability to multitask does- n’t extend that far). So, the idea of doing a column about time traveling sprang naturally to mind. To begin with, we need to make a distinction between the physical possi- bility of time travel and the logic of it. Broadly speaking, the first item is a matter for physics, the second for phi- losophy (though obviously the two

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timately come from? Clearly, it comes neither from the older nor from the The problem with causal loops younger “inventor.” Whence then? Garrett himself doesn’t seem too is that one gets the nasty bothered by this problem. He says that we have no trouble conceiving of all suspicion that something is sorts of uncaused events, so why should this particular one be problematic? But being gotten out of nothing: his examples of non-troubling un - caused events just don’t seem to fit the Where does the know-how to bill: “God, or the Big Bang, or the en- tire infinite past of the universe, or the build time machines ultimately decay of a tritium atom.” Let’s ex clude God, because I don’t think that ill-de- come from? fined concept belongs in any serious philosophical discussion of science. The other events are hardly cases analogous to the building of a time machine, both because they pertain to quantum-level would intersect if we ever did try to get not causally precede its cause, the state- phenomena (and you know how poorly a time machine working). In this column ment is indeed true. If the effect did we understand those!) and because it is I will focus on the conceptual issues causally precede the cause, we would posed by time travel. There are two such simply call the effect a “cause” and the not at all a given that the big bang or issues that are particularly pressing: first cause an “effect,” and logical order atomic decay are truly uncaused events. off, time travel seems to necessitate back- would be restored. But precede may No essay about time travel could pos- ward causation; second, it seems to make mean temporally, not causally, prior. sibly be complete without a mention of causal loops possible. And both back- Most theories of causation (of which the grandfather paradox. It seems that if ward causation and causal loops are there is a long tradition, stretching back time travel is possible, then it should also problematic ideas. to Aristotle) are in fact compatible with be possible to go back and kill your Philosopher David Lewis gives a backward causation, as long as the ef- grandfather before your father is born simple example of backward causation: fect precedes the cause temporally but (why you might want to do that is an Suppose you see a wannabe time trav- not causally—the example of the time entirely different question, of course). eler about to step into his machine, and traveler who is punched in the face is But killing your grandfather puts you in you manage (for whatever reason!) to one that does not entail any logical yet another causal loop: if you do man- punch him in the face. He then escapes contradiction. age to kill him, then how could you have to his machine, sets it for five hundred What about causal loops? Brian been born in the first place, which is a years in the past, and reappears during Garrett gives us an example in his book necessary precondition for you to go the Renaissance. In the meantime, his What Is This Thing Called Metaphysics? back in time and kill him? The general physiological reaction to the punch has Imagine that a time traveler goes back conclusion seems to be that time travel continued, so a bruise will form on his to his own youth to tell his younger self requires causal loops, which in turn ne- face—which means that you are re- how to make a time machine. The cessitate closed time-like curves. For all sponsible for a bruise appearing five young inventor then makes it possi- we know at the moment (from physics, centuries before you actually punched ble—by building the machine—for his particularly relativity theory), however, the guy. That’s backward causation. older self to come back from the future time is a linear dimension like the three The first thought that comes to and instruct him on how to build it. spatial ones, not a closed curve—unless mind is that backward causation is an You see that there is a closed causal some particularly strange version of oxymoron: surely by definition the ef- chain at work here. The problem with string theory entailing folded time di- fect cannot precede the cause! But the causal loops is that one gets the nasty mensions manages to turn up. But that’s tricky part of that statement is the word suspicion that something is being got- a whole different story (see my “Is precede. If by “the effect cannot precede ten out of nothing: Where does the Physics Turning into Philoso phy?” SI, the cause” we mean that the effect can- know-how to build time machines ul- May/June 2006). n

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[ SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE Kenneth W. Krause is a contributing editor, books editor, and “The Good Book” columnist for the Humanist and a contributing editor and columnist for the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. E-mail: [email protected].

Religion on Politics on Science: The Rough Ride for Stem Cells Continues

n August 23, 2010, U.S. District Although funding was restored on volving hESC had received U.S. gov- Judge Royce Lam berth turned September 9 when the appeals court ernment approval as of this writing, and Othe recently revitalized world of temporarily stayed Lamberth’s injunc- all were the product of privately funded stem-cell research on its unsuspecting tion, many experts warn that mounting research. In January 2009, Geron ob- ear. The decision centered on the uncertainty has already caused irrepara- tained permission to begin stem-cell Dickey-Wicker amendment, which ble damage and say American postdoc- therapy on patients with spinal-cord bans federal financing of any research toral researchers are rethinking en try injuries. Then, in Novem ber 2010 and involving the destruction or endanger- into the field. They also tell us that for- January 2011, respectively, Advanced ment of human embryos. According to eign graduates are more reluctant to Cell Tech nology got the Food and Lamberth, the government violated that consider positions in the United States. Drug Administra tion’s go-ahead to law when it acted upon President The appeals court heard oral argu- work on juveniles with Stargardt’s mac- Obama’s 2009 executive order expanding ments on December 6 and was ex - ular degeneration and adults with age- support for research on human embry- pected to rule sometime in January. The related macular degeneration. None of onic stem cells (hESC). Dickey-Wicker outcome is anything but certain, and these trials, however, has produced any first passed in 1996 and has been reat- many legal experts expect the case to reportable results. tached to congressional spending bills reach the U.S. Supreme Court. Regard- Research on ASC, by contrast, has every year since. less, the legal fracas serves more con- already paid sumptuous dividends—in- Sherley v. Sebelius was initiated by structively to highlight weightier and cluding bona fide cures for certain various claimants, including a number even more contentious questions. blood diseases. Although ASC by of Christian groups who were later dis- First, the science: Just how impor- themselves lack pluripotency, a barrage missed for lack of standing. The re- tant is continued research on hESC, of recent headlines has flaunted this maining plaintiffs, adult stem-cell and to what extent do recent advances field’s undeniable vitality. (ASC) researchers James Sherley and in ASC and induced pluripotent stem- In 2009, for example, Dr. Tracy Theresa Deisher, were recruited to the cell (iPSC) technologies alter that dis- Grikscheit from Children’s Hospital Los suit and continue to claim standing cussion? Angeles opened up a pig and constructed based on alleged harm to their careers Nothing obscures or distorts science a -like structure inside resulting from increased competition quite like politics inspired by religion. using nothing more than the animal’s in- for federal cash. According to celebrated skeptic Susan testinal stem cells and a biodegradable Lamberth’s preliminary injunction Jacoby (2011), “The problem with the cylinder-shaped scaffolding, thus de - on funding had an immediate and good news that embryonic re- monstrating that ASC somehow “know” major impact on the science commu- search will now go forward is that the what to do when seeded onto a familiar nity. The National Institutes of Health public relations campaign against right- structure (Sala et al. 2009). Preliminary (NIH) was forced to abandon its re- wing religious restrictions ... [has] tests suggest that Grikscheit’s artificial view of fifty new grant applications. It oversold the possibility of immediate bowel will function naturally in pigs. also halted second-level review of practical results to conquer such dis- A similar technique has improved twelve applications worth fifteen to eases as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.” the life of a human child. Again com- twenty million dollars. Indeed, only three clinical trials in- bining a synthetic scaffolding with stem

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cells harvested from his young spina bi- compared with their embryonic coun- as well. On November 7, Mickie Bhatia fida-inflicted patient, Dr. Anthony terparts (Feng et al. 2010). at McMaster University re ported the Atala, director of the Wake Forest Insti- Emerging evidence also indicates first-ever conversion of human skin cells tute for Regenerative Medi cine, created that iPSC tend to retain traits from their into red, white, and platelet blood cells a new bladder that, once attached to the tissue of origin—striking residual DNA using an OCT4-infused virus and a old paralyzed organ, attracted its own methylation signatures that could seri- brew of immune-system stimulating nerve and blood supplies. Now, several ously compromise their suitability for proteins called cytokines (Szabo et al. years after surgery, the twenty-year-old use in the fields of genetic engineering 2010). Because these cells never pass patient’s bladder performs normally. and regenerative medicine. In one of through an embryonic-like state, the But in recent months, iPSC have re- three new studies describing this phe- risk of tumor formation is averted. On ceived more attention and generated nomenon, now dubbed epigenetic mem- the downside, converted cells will not more excitement among scientists than ory, researchers compared iPSC repro- easily multiply in the lab. any other stem-cell technology. Back in grammed through the Yamanaka Regardless, America’s most promi- 2006, Shinya Yamanaka was the first to method with mouse ESC generated via nent and accomplished researchers successfully reprogram adult fibroblasts somatic-cell nuclear transfer (Kim et al. continue to insist that neither ASC nor back to a pluripotent, embryonic-like 2010). Disappoint ingly, they discovered iPSC technologies have advanced far state through the forced expression of that the iPSC were less likely to achieve enough to render aggressive hESC re- four transcription factors (SOX2, KLF4, “ground state pluripotency” and that search superfluous, let alone obsolete. MYC, and OCT4). Just a few years later, they tended to differentiate into their During a well-publicized hearing on staggering progress has been made in original cell types. stem-cell research held on September differentiating human iPSC into neu- Then again, scientists have ad dres- 16, 2010, a Senate appropriations sub- rons and heart, liver, pancreas, and eye sed—and in some cases, overcome— committee took testimony from Fran- tissues. Now, say many experts, it ap- these obstacles almost as quickly as jour- cis Collins, director of the NIH, and pears that iPSC are “poised to have a nalists can write about them. Some labs George Daley, director of the Stem major impact in biology and medicine” now use viruses that don’t invade the Cell Transplantation Program at the through applications in “disease model- cell’s genome, while others employ tiny Children’s Hospital Boston. ing, drug screening, and, perhaps, cell- rings of DNA called episomes that don’t A vocal evangelical Christian as based therapies” (Sadelain 2010). replicate when the cell divides. well, Collins made it plain during the Indeed, on December 12, 2010, re - This past September, Derrick Rossi hearing that hESC “remain the gold searchers from the Cincinnati Children’s of the used standard for pluripotency” and that “to Hospital Medical Center in Ohio re- synthetic RNA molecules correspon- prohibit work on [them] will thus do ported success in coaxing human iPSC ding to the standard Yamanaka factors severe collateral damage to the new and (and separately cultured hESC) to form to produce RNA-induced pluripotent exciting research on [iPSC].” He then a three-dimensional organ resembling an stem cells, or “RiPS,” one hundred times reminded the senators that the NIH intestine and to recapitulate smooth- more efficiently (a two percent success spends nearly three times as much on muscle tissue, nutrient-absorbing cells, rate) than with viral methods and in ASC research as it does on hESC re- and mucous-, hormone-, and enzyme- roughly half the time (two weeks) (War- search every year. secreting cells (Spence et al. 2010). Sci- ren et al. 2010). And be cause RNA dis- But Collins’s most poignant testi- entists have also used iPSC to cure dia- integrates rapidly, RiPS are genetically mony divulged how hESC are currently betes in mice.1 identical to their source cells. Unfortu- “providing key tools to help us study the Nevertheless, iPSC have presented nately, Rossi’s process is exceptionally origins of many devastating diseases their own problems. First, the insertion expensive and time consuming. that afflict babies and young children,” of external genes into reprogrammed Even more recently, Sheng Ding, a including fragile X and Rett syndromes, cells can cause any number of expression chemist at the Scripps Research Insti - developmental disorders of the brain. anomalies. Second, one of Yama naka’s tute in San Diego, effectively repro- Americans “must persevere and move transcription factors is known to cause grammed human skin cells by treating this research forward in a strong and tumors. Third, the reprogramming them with drugs and only one virus- consistent manner,” he urged. The pol- process can be inefficient, resulting in delivered gene, OCT4 (Zhu et al. 2010). itics of delay and uncertainty, he only one success for every 1,000 cells And because that gene, too, has been warned, were tantamount to “pouring treated. Indeed, one 2010 study reported replaced in experiments on mice, says sand into the engine of discovery.” that iPSC were thousands of times less Ding, a human protocol entirely free of Having co-authored Rossi’s ground- likely to proliferate and suffered greatly foreign genes may not be far off. breaking RiPS paper, Daley’s adamant increased rates of early senescence The direct conversion of ordinary avowal that iPSC “do not obviate the (aging) and apoptosis (cell death) when body cells has lately gained momentum need for [hESC]” may have been

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equally effective. He also noted the stubborn limitations of even the most successful ASC treatments in volving the transplantation of hema topoietic cells. Despite fifty years of this research and practice, Daley said, “patients still A vocal evangelical Christian, Francis die or become severely disabled because the transplant regimens are so toxic.” Collins made it plain during the hearing Clearly irritated by the current legal that hESC “remain the gold standard intrusion into scientific matters, Daley likened the political debate concerning for pluripotency” and that “to prohibit different classes of stem cells to a con- test between entertainers on American work on [them] will thus do severe Idol. These arguments, he scolded, “are collateral damage to the new and not based on sound scientific evidence, but rather ideologically driven at - exciting research on [iPSC].” tempts” to control science and distort sober medical realities. Urging new leg- islation to encourage American re- search, Daley was “convinced that [hESC] are critical to a multifaceted portfolio of NIH stem cell research.” gress relied upon during the past two References Senate subcommittees are notorious presidential administrations. Feng, Q., S. Lu, I. Klimanskaya, et al. 2010. He- for choosing witnesses certain to con- But even the best-case judicial solu- mangioblastic derivatives from human in- duced pluripotent stem cells exhibit limited firm member predilections. But these tion would be inadequate. With polls showing continued and increasing pop- expansion and early senescence. Stem Cells 28: researchers’ credentials, and those of 704–12. their many professional supporters, ular support for hESC research, all sci- Jacoby, S. 2011. Never Say Die: The Myth and cannot be denied. In the end, Jacoby ence-friendly members of Congress Marketing of the New Old Age. New York: (2011, 98) concurs: “That treatments should promptly push for clear and Pantheon Books. comprehensive legislation that would Kim, K., A. Doi, B. Wen, et al. 2010. Epigenetic may be a generation or two ... away is memory in induced pluripotent stem cells. not an argument against basic scientific override Dickey-Wicker and codify many of the research guidelines an - Nature 467(7313): 285–90. research. The difficulty of the science Sadelain, M. 2010. The need for genetically en- makes it more, not less, important for nounced by Obama in 2009. gineered therapeutic pluripotent stem cells researchers to move full speed ahead And we shouldn’t forget that the (Editorial). Molecular Therapy 18(2): 2039. now in all areas that offer promise for stem-cell question is part of a larger Sala, F.G., S.M. Kunisaki, E.R. Ochoa, et al. issue looming on the cultural horizon. 2009. Tissue-engineered small intestine and the alleviation of the most serious age America stands at a crossroads. Will it stomach form from autologous tissue in a related diseases.” remain a nation committed to scientific preclinical large animal model. Journal of Sur- After the judiciary imposes itself, gical Research 156(2): 205–12. innovation and economic progress? Or however, it quickly loses the option to Spence, J.R., C.N. Mayhew, S.A. Rankin, et al. will ideology finally tear down those bow out gracefully. Dickey-Wicker was 2010. Direct differentiation of human in - long-partnered academic and entrepre- duced pluripotent stem cells into intestinal a legal accident waiting to happen. But neurial edifices that generations of tissue in vitro. Nature (advance online publi- from the wreckage we must now address supremely talented, energetic, forward- cation). doi: 10.1038/nature09691. the next unavoidable question: How Szabo, E., S. Rampalli, R.M. Risueño, et al. 2010. thinking, and, yes, conscientious persons should Americans dispose of the stem- Direct conversion of human fibroblasts to have worked so hard to erect? n cell quandary—through the courts or multilineage blood progenitors. Nature (ad- through Congress? vance online publication). doi: 10.1038/ Note nature09591. In the courts, the defense will argue 1. Also on December 12, researchers at Warren, L., P.D. Manos, T. Ahfeldt, et al. 2010. that Dickey-Wicker preceded and thus Georgetown University Medical Center pre- Highly efficient reprogramming to pluripo- could not have been intended to control sented findings at the fiftieth annual meeting of tency and directed differentiation of human the American Society of Cell Biology that in- cells with synthetic modified mRNA. Cell modern hESC research. It will contend sulin-secreting beta islet cells, normally found in that mere research on stem cells previ- the pancreas, can be produced from human sper- Stem Cell 7(5): 618–30. Zhu, S., W. Li, H. Zhou, et al. 2010. Repro - ously derived from embryos does not matogonial ASC without the use of extra genes. These researchers hope that continued progress gramming of human primary somatic cells by constitute harming those embryos, in this area will lead to a novel solution to juve- OCT4 and chemical compounds. Cell Stem which is apparently the reasoning Con- nile-onset (type 1) diabetes. Cell 7(6), 651–55.

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[ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or co-author of five books, including Scientific Paranormal Investigation: How to Solve Unexplained Mysteries.

The Mysterious Morgellons Malady

A recent evening television news show aired a report on people with mysterious—supposedly nonbiological—filaments growing out of their bodies. What’s behind this claim? Q: —D. Phillips

People who suffer from or autism.” Such patients are often Morgellons Research Foundation, the Morgellons disease experi- treated with antipsychotic drugs such as U.S. Centers for Disease Control and ence a variety of symp- pimozide (Orap), olanzapine (Zyprexa), Prevention recently began investigating toms, including crawling or risperidone (Risperdal) (Shenefelt the disease, and there are a handful of or stinging sensations on 2010). An element of paranoia has also experts who endorse Morgellons as a the skin, chronic fatigue, arisen surrounding Mor gellons: suffer- disease distinct from delusional para- and memory loss. Many also claim to ers sometimes claim that the U.S. gov- sitosis. Indeed, “At least one scientist— find mysterious fiber-like materials ex- ernment or the medical establishment albeit not an expert in the field—is tak- truding through their skin: “Fibers are knows what is causing their symptoms ing it seriously. ‘Morgellons patients re ported in and on skin lesions and are but is covering it up for some reason. have masses of dark fibers visible at ×60 usually white, but clinicians also report Sociologist Robert Bartholo mew magnification under the unbroken skin, seeing blue, green, red, and black fibers believes that Morgellons is a socially while unaffected individuals do not,’ that fluoresce when viewed under ultra- transmitted disease caused by a woman violet light” (Paquette 2007). A very named Mary Leitao: says Randy Wymore, assistant professor new disease, its cause, mode of trans- of pharmacology at Okla homa State In 2002, a South Carolina mother University. ‘That took away any possi- mission, and treatment remain un- named Mary Leitao founded a web- known. site called the Morgellons [Research] bility that this was not a real thing’” Most doctors believe that Morgel lons Founda tion, dedicated to solving the (Marris 2006). Other re search ers have is a type of psychiatric disorder called mystery of the ailment by the same concluded that the fibers come from name. Leitao became worried after , in which patients strange symptoms developed in her mundane sources such as clothing, car- come to believe that they are infested two-year-old son. She chose the peting, or pets. Per haps Wymore and with invisible insects or bugs (an excel- name after stumbling across a 1674 other re searchers will find good evi- lent cinematic example of this disorder medical report describing similar dence of a real disease, but until then, symptoms to what he was experienc- can be seen in the 2006 thriller Bug). ing. The site quickly became a mag- the Occam’s razor principle suggests There’s a strong link between Mor - net for people around the world with that Morgellons is a mental disorder. n gellons and mental illness. As re - all sorts of vague symptoms. The pat- searcher Mary Paquette noted in Per- tern of transmission is not tied to a References mysterious new bacteria or virus. In spectives in Psychiatric Care (2007), “over Bartholomew, Robert. 2010. Personal communi- this instance, the Internet is the car- cation. half of all individuals with Mor gellons rier—and the disease is an idea, Marris, Emma. 2006. Mysterious ‘Morgellons disease also suffer from mood disorders which is spread by human insecurity disease’ prompts US investigation. Nature and fear. It is a sign of our changing such as depression and bipolar disorder. Medicine 12(9): 982. It is estimated that 65% of children times, a product of the Information Paquette, Mary. 2007. Morgellons: Disease or Age. (Bartholomew 2010) with Morgellons have some form of delusions? Perspectives in Psychiatric Care psychiatric illness such as attention Due largely to lobbying efforts by 43(2): 67–68. Shenefelt, Philip. 2010. Management of psycho- deficit/hyperactivity disorder, opposi- Leitao and others (including musician dermatologic disorders. Dermatology Nurs - tional defiant disorder, mood disorders, Joni Mitchell) associated with the ing 22(4): 9–17.

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Back from the Future: Parapsychology and the Bem Affair Psychologist Daryl Bem has reported data suggesting that individuals’ future experiences can influence their responses in the present. Careful scrutiny of his report reveals serious flaws in procedure and analysis, rendering this interpretation untenable.

JAMES E. ALCOCK

flurry of media attention is being directed toward the wrote: “We have, then, for physical sci- ence, a challenging need for the discov- prepublication distribution of Daryl Bem’s forthcom- ery of the energy mode involved. Some A ing re search paper “Feeling the Future: Experimental type of energy is inferable and none is Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cogni- known to be acceptable . . .” (166). 1 Despite Rhine’s confidence that he tion and Affect.” Bem claims to have found evidence of had established the reality of extrasen- marvelous psychic abilities that transcend time and allow sory perception, he had not done so. the future to reach backward to change the past. Both the Methodological problems with his ex- periments eventually came to light, and academic stature of its author, a respected emeritus professor as a result parapsychologists no longer of psychology at Cornell University, and the fact that it was run card-guessing studies and rarely to be published in the American Psychological Association’s even refer to Rhine’s work. (APA) Journal of Per sonal ity and Social Psychology have made 2. Physicist Helmut Schmidt conducted this report particularly newsworthy. numerous studies throughout the 1970s and ’80s that putatively demonstrated that humans (and animals) could para- normally influence and/or predict the Parapsychology has long struggled, tum, “Those who cannot remember the output of random event generators. unsuccessfully, for acceptance in the past are condemned to repeat it,” we Some of his claims were truly extraordi- halls of science. Could this article be its should approach Bem’s work using a nary: for example, that a cat in a garden breakthrough? After all, the article ap- historical framework to guide us. Con- shed, which was heated only by a lamp parently provides evidence compelling sider the following: controlled by a random event generator, enough to persuade the editors of the 1. In 1934, Joseph Banks Rhine pub- was able—through psychokinetic ma- world’s preeminent social-psychology lished Extra-Sensory Perception (Rhine nipulation—to turn the lamp on more journal of its worthiness. However, this & McDougall, 1934/2003), summariz- often than would be expected by chance. is hardly the first time that there has ing his careful efforts to bring parapsy- Schmidt’s claim to have put psi on a solid been media excitement about new “sci- chology into the laboratory through ap- scientific footing garnered considerable entific” evidence of the paranormal. plication of modern psychological attention, and his published research re- Over the past eighty-odd years, this methodology and statistical analysis. ported very im pressive p values.2 In my drama has played out a number of Based on a long series of card-guessing own extensive review of his work, I con- times, and each time parapsychologists experiments, Rhine wrote: “It is inde- cluded that Schmidt had indeed accu- ultimately failed to persuade the scien- pendently established on the basis of mulated im pressive evidence that some- tific world that parapsychological phe- this work alone that Extra-Sensory thing other than chance was involved nomena (psi) actually exist. Recalling Perception is an actual and demonstra- (Alcock 1988). However, I found serious George Santayana’s now-clichéd dic- ble occurrence” (p. 210). Elsewhere, he methodological errors throughout his

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ogists reasoned that psi influences may be so subtle that they are normally drowned out by information carried Excitement about Helmut through normal sensory channels. Per- haps if a participant were in a situation Schmidt’s research gradually relatively free of normal stimulation, then extrasensory information would have a dwindled to the point that his better opportunity to be recognized. The late Charles Honorton carried out a large work became virtually irrelevant, number of ganzfeld studies and claimed that his meta-analysis3 of this work sub- even within the field of stantiated the reality of psi. Hyman parapsychology itself. (1985) carried out a parallel meta-analy- sis that contradicted that conclusion. Hyman and Honorton (1986) subse- quently published a “joint communiqué” work that rendered his conclusions un- the School of Engineering and Applied in which they agreed that the ganzfeld tenable, and the “something other than Science at Princeton University, estab- results were not likely to be due to chance” was attributable to method- lished the Princeton Engineering An - chance, but they thought that replication ological flaws. oma lies Research (PEAR) unit to study involving more rigorous standards was As with Rhine, excitement about putative paranormal phenomena such as essential before final conclusions could Schmidt’s research gradually dwindled . Like Schmidt, Jahn was be drawn. to the point that his work became vir- particularly interested in the possibility Daryl Bem subsequently published tually irrelevant, even within the field that people can predict and/or influence an overview of ganzfeld research in the of parapsychology itself. purely random subatomic processes. prestigious Psychological Bulletin (Bem Given his superb academic and scien- 3. The 1970s gave rise to “remote view- and Honorton 1994), claiming that the tific credentials, his claims of success ing,” a procedure through which an in- accumulated data were clear evidence of drew particular attention within the sci- dividual seated in a laboratory can sup- the reality of paranormal phenomena. entific community. When his laboratory posedly receive psychic impressions of That effort failed to be convincing, in closed in 2007, Jahn concluded that a remote location that is being visited part because a number of meta-analyses “over the laboratory’s 28-year history, by someone else. Physicists Russell Targ have been carried out since then with thousands of such experiments, involv- and Harold Puthoff claimed that their contradictory results (e.g., Bem et al. ing many millions of trials, were per- series of remote-viewing studies 2001; Milton and Wiseman 1999). Re- formed by several hundred operators. demonstrated the reality of psi. This at- cently, the issue was raised again in the The observed effects were usually quite tracted huge media attention, and their pages of Psychological Bul letin, with pa- small, of the order of a few parts in ten dramatic findings (Targ and Puthoff pers from Storm et al. (2010a, 2010b) thousand on average, but they com- 1974) were published in Nature, one of and Hyman (2010). While Storm and pounded to highly significant statistical the world’s top scientific journals. At coworkers argued that their meta- deviations from chance expectations” first, their methodology seemed unas- analyses demonstrate paranormal influ- (PEAR, n.d.). sailable; years later, when more detailed ences, Hyman pointed to serious short- However, parapsychologists them- information became available, it be- comings in their analysis and reminded selves were among the most severe crit- came obvious that there were funda- us that the ganzfeld procedure has ics of his work, and their criticisms were mental flaws in procedure that could failed to yield data that are capable of in line with my own (Alcock 1988). readily account for their sensational being replicated by neutral scientists. More importantly, several replication findings. When other re searchers re- Because of the lack of clear and attempts have been unsuccessful (Jef- peated Targ and Puthoff ’s procedure replicable evidence, the ganzfeld proce- fers 2003), including a large-scale inter- with the flaws intact, significant results dure has not lived up to the promise of national effort led by Jahn himself were obtained; with the flaws removed, providing the long-sought break- outcomes were not significant (Marks ( Jahn et al. 2000). through that would lead to the accept- and Kamman 1978, 1980). 5. In the1970s, the ganzfeld, a concept ance of psi by mainstream science. Add Targ and Puthoff to the list of borrowed from contemporaneous psy- Add Honorton (and Bem the first “breakthrough” psi researchers whose chological research into the effects of time around) to the list. work is now all but forgotten. sensory deprivation, was brought into The lesson in this history is that new 4. In 1979, Robert Jahn, then dean of parapsychological research. Parapsy chol - claims of impressive evidence for psi

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should give one pause. Early excitement We must take all this on faith, for oth- guesses,” although no effort was made is often misleading, and as Ray Hyman erwise any research publication might to determine whether they were indeed has pointed out, it often takes up to ten simply be approached as a blend of fact, reinforcing anything. The main hy- years before the shortcomings of a new fantasy, skill, and error, possibly reflecting pothesis was that participants would be approach in parapsychological research little more than the predilections of the able to identify the position of the hid- become evident. researcher. Obvious methodo logical or den erotic picture significantly more One must also keep in mind that analytical sloppiness indicates that the often than by chance. even the best statistical evidence cannot implicit social contract has been violated So far, clear enough. But then things speak to the causes of observed statisti- and that we can no longer have confi- become quite messy: we learn that cal departures. Statistical deviations do dence that the researcher followed best “most” of the pictures used in the ex- not favor arbitrary pet hypotheses, and practices and minimized personal bias. periment were selected from a data- statistical evidence cited in support of As Gardner (1977) wrote, when one bank, the International Affective Pic- psi could as easily support other hy- finds that the chemist began with dirty ture System. Bem then states that each potheses as well. For example, if one test tubes, one can have no confidence in session (a “session” refers to all the trials conducted a parapsychological experi- the chemist’s findings and must wonder of an individual participant) in volved ment while praying for above-chance about other, as yet undetected, contami- thirty-six trials of randomly intermixed scoring, statistically significant out- nation. So, when considering Bem’s pres- erotic and non-erotic pictures (eighteen comes could be taken as evidence for ent re search, not only do we need to look of each). However, we soon learn that the power of prayer just as readily as for at the data, but—following the meta - not all sessions were conducted in this the existence of psi. phor—we need to assess whether Bem way: the first forty of the one hundred Another key consideration is that used clean test tubes. sessions (that is, those of the first forty parapsychology’s putative phenomena participants) involved twelve trials of are all negatively defined: to claim that Bem’s Research erotic pictures, twelve of negative pic- psi has been detected, all possible nor- Bem describes a series of nine experi- tures, and twelve of neutral pictures! mal influences must be ruled out. How- ments that “test for retroactive influence (The distinction between the “non- ever, one can never be certain that all by ‘time-reversing’ well-established psy- erotic” pictures seen by the majority of normal influences have been elimi- chological effects so that the individual’s the participants and the “neutral” pic- nated; the reader of a research report responses are obtained before the puta- tures seen by only the first forty is un- has only the experimenter’s word for it. tively causal stimulus events occur.” clear.) To muddle things even more, This point brings us to a related con- His stated goal is “to provide well-con- Bem then states that the remaining sixty . Research reports involve an implicit trolled demonstrations of psi that can be sessions involved “18 trials of erotic pic- social contract between experimenter and replicated by independent investigators.” tures and 18 trials of non-erotic positive audience. The reader can evaluate only He defines psi as denoting “anomalous pictures with both high and low arousal what has been put into print and must pro cesses of information or energy ratings. These included pictures featuring presume that the researcher has followed transfer that are currently unexplained couples in romantic but non-erotic situa- the best practices of good research. We in terms of known physical or biologi- tions...” (emphasis added). How many assume that the participants did actually cal mechanisms.” were of high or low arousal weighting, participate and that they were not al- or what those terms even mean, he does lowed to use their cellular telephones EXPERIMENT 1: Precognitive Detection not say. during the experiment or to chat with of Erotic Stimuli What is going on here? Setting other participants. We assume that they Each trial in this experiment involved aside the confusion about the stimulus, were effectively shielded from cues that the presentation of an erotic, negative, no competent researcher dramatically might have inappropriately influenced or neutral picture. The participant sat modifies an experiment two-fifths of their responses. We assume that the data in front of a computer screen and was the way into it! To do so is to seriously were as reported—that none were thrown tasked to predict which of two curtains compromise any subsequent analysis out because they did not suit the experi- had a picture behind it. Only after the and interpretation. men ter—and that they were analyzed ap- participant had chosen a curtain by de- But that is not all. Bem next indi- propriately and in the manner indicated. pressing a key did the computer select cates that in all the experiments using We assume that equipment functioned a picture at random and present it be- highly arousing erotic or negative stim- as described and that precautions re- hind either the left or the right curtain. uli, “a relatively large number of non- ported in the experimental procedure Each participant was presented with arousing trials must be included to per- were carefully followed. We take for thirty-six of these trials and was given mit the participant’s arousal level to granted that the researcher set out to test feedback on each one. The erotic pic- ‘settle down’ between critical trials. This particular hypotheses and did not choose tures were considered to be “explicit re- requires including many trials that do the hypotheses after looking at the data. inforcement for correct ‘precognitive’ not contribute directly to the effect

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cent of the thirty-six trials—the other forty participants received twelve trials with erotic pictures, twelve with negative pic- tures, and twelve with neutral pictures. For them, the chance outcome would be 33.3 percent. However, it turns out that Bem combined the data for success or We then find that participants failure, but on the erotic pictures only, from all one hundred sessions (i.e., from were allowed to choose their all one hundred participants) and then target set! This is one of the most applied t-tests4 to assess whether identi- fication of the future position of erotic pic- baffling descriptions of research tures occurred significantly more fre- quently than the 50 percent rate expected materials and procedures that by chance. We are also informed that the hit rate for non-erotic pictures—whether I have ever encountered. they were neutral, negative, positive, or ro- mantic and non-erotic—did not differ sig- nificantly from chance. (This is the first mention of “romantic but non-erotic,” which adds to the confusion.) Now we have learned that the focus of the experiment is on the erotic pic- being tested.” This leaves us not know- tion of seeing female-female erotic im- tures presented to the participants, but ing how many trials were actually run ages” (emphasis added). no information is provided regarding and wondering by what method the re- By now, a careful reader is totally how participants with three choices searcher determined the number of confused as to what went on in this ex- scored on erotic pictures as compared non-arousing trials that were needed to periment. Now, we find that participants with those who had only two choices; ensure that even the most randy of par- were allowed to choose their target set! one wonders why this is so. ticipants would “settle down.” This is one of the most baffling descrip- The data analysis was conducted So by this point, it is not clear how tions of research materials and proce- through multiple t-tests without any cor- many trials were actually presented to dures that I have ever encountered. rection for that multiplicity. We are in- each participant or even whether they all In reflecting on the extremely unusual formed that there were at least seven received an equal number of trials. It is change in procedure during the experi- such t-tests, and the only significant out- unclear just what the stimulus materials ment—when the appropriate course come was that the one hundred partici- were, and we are faced with a procedure would be to run two different experi- pants “identified the future position of that was changed partway through the ments—one cannot help but wonder if erotic pictures significantly more fre- experiment. two experiments were indeed run, and quently than the 50% hit rate expected Just when one thinks that this study when each failed to produce significant by chance: 53.1%.” This was stated to be cannot be made any more confusing, results the data from them were com- statistically significant at p = .01. How- Bem informs us that he discovered in bined with the focus shifted to only the ever, that significance level is simply in- Experiment 5 (which turns out to have erotic pictures common to all partici- correct. This kind of error (Type I)5 in- been conducted prior to Experi ment 1!) pants. Surely that was not done, for such creases with the number of t-tests that “women showed psi effects to an action would make a mockery of ex- conducted, and given that there were at highly arousing stimuli but men did perimental rigor. least seven such t-tests with a criterion of not.” In light of this odd complication, Data Analysis: Bem states that “the p ≤ .01, the actual probability associated Bem states that “we introduced different main psi hypothesis was that participants with each of these t-tests is 1 – erotic and negative pictures for men and would be able to identify the position of (.99)7 = .06 one-tailed.6 Thus, none of women in subsequent studies, including the hidden erotic picture significantly these t-tests is actually statistically signif- this one using stronger and more explicit more often than chance (50%).” At first, icant, not even at a more generous .05 p images from Internet sites for the men. this claim is puzzling. Although sixty of value. It is simply unacceptable that Bem We also provided two additional sets of the participants completed eighteen trials did not correct for multiple testing, de- erotic pictures so that men could choose with erotic pictures and eighteen trials spite indications later in his report that the option of seeing male-male erotic with “non-erotic positive pictures”—there- he is familiar with one such correction images and women could choose the op- fore making the chance outcome 50 per- technique, the Bonferroni t-test.7

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Another reason for concern is Bem’s strated to relate to the construct, endeav- puter randomly choose which of the deliberate use of one-tailed t-tests, oring to ensure that the increments on two pictures would be considered the which provide a simpler criterion to the response measure are of approxi- “target.” If the participant had chosen meet than the two-tailed tests generally mately equal size, and establishing satis- this target, the computer thrice flashed employed by parapsychologists. (Para - factory reliability and validity of the final a reportedly subliminal “positively va- psy chologists typically interpret both scale. Bem has ignored these considera- lenced picture.” If the participant chose above-chance and below-chance scor- tions. As a result, the arbitrary assign- the non-target, then a “highly arousing ing as indicative of psi, and thus they do ment of numbers to participants’ re- negatively valenced picture” was flashed not make specific predictions about the sponses on this “scale” is unjustified and three times. direction of the extra-chance scoring.) misleading. A hit was defined as choosing the When we say that something is signif- Nonetheless, Bem correlates re sponses “target-to-be.” However, as in Experi- icant at the .01 level two-tailed, this on the scale with the participants’ “psi ment 1, the description of the situation means that we would expect these re- scores” and reports a significant correla- is difficult to unravel: For the first one sults to occur by chance alone only 1 tion, but only for those participants hundred sessions (the first one hundred percent of the time. But, given that ei- whose scores on his scale fall above the participants), “the flashed positive and ther above-chance or below-chance re- midpoint. Participants who score below negative pictures were independently sults are considered to be meaningful, the midpoint on the scale did not score selected and sequenced randomly.” this 1 percent must be distributed in significantly above chance on either Then there was a change in procedure. both directions. Thus, above-chance re- erotic or non-erotic trials. For the next fifty participants, “the neg- sults would be significant at the .01 Overall Evaluation: Just about every- ative pictures were put into a fixed se- level two-tailed only if they are so ex- thing that could be done wrong in an ex- quence, ranging from those that had treme that they would be expected to periment occurred here. And even if one been successfully avoided most fre- occur by chance only half of 1 percent, chooses to overlook that methodological quently during the first 100 sessions to or 0.5 percent, of the time. The same mess, Bem’s data still do not support the those that had been avoided least fre- applies for below-chance results. claimed above-chance effect because of quently.” When the participant selected Bem also reports that he carried out the multiple-testing problem. what was to later be designated as the a nonparametric binomial test8 on the It is difficult to have confidence that target picture, the positive picture was overall proportion of hits on erotic tar- the other eight experiments, some of flashed, subliminally as before, and the gets across all trials and sessions, but he which were carried out earlier than the negative picture was retained for the offers no adequate rationale for using one just described, were conducted with next trial. However, when the partici- more than one type of significance test appropriate attention to experimental pant selected the non-target, “the neg- for the same data. The test is redundant rigor: We have toured the laboratory; ative picture was flashed and the next and offers nothing beyond the t-test. we have found the dirty test tubes and positive and negative pictures in the Then, after having examined the the mislabeled vials; we have observed queue were used for the next trial.” data, he introduces the possibility that inappropriate methodology and analy- This presents the same problem as introversion/extroversion may play a sis. We have lost confidence in the before—the procedure has been role in presumed precognitive ability. chemist, and there seems little need to changed partway through the experi- He suggests that it may be an extrovert’s poke about further. ment. Bem states that this was done to “susceptibility to boredom and the ten- Nonetheless, go on we must. evaluate the possibility that “the psi ef- dency to seek out stimulation” that un- fect may be stronger if the most success- derlies observed correlations between EXPERIMENT 2: Precognitive Avoidance fully avoided negative stimuli were used extroversion and psi performance re - of Negative Stimuli repeatedly until they were eventually in- ported in the literature. However, rather This study involved 107 female and voked.” It is difficult to get one’s head than using existing, well-documented forty-three male undergraduate stu- around this justification, and in any case, measures of stimulus-seeking, he con- dents. Using a computer, each partici- this should have been examined in a sep- structed his own such scale comprising pant first responded to Bem’s two-item arate study. Again, given the inherent two statements, reversed in scoring: “I stimulus-seeking scale and then com- unreasonableness of changing the pro- am easily bored” and “I often enjoy see- pleted a sequence of thirty-six trials in cedure in an ongoing experiment, one ing movies I’ve seen before.” The con- which a “low arousal affectively neutral” cannot help but wonder if two separate tent and construction of this scale is be- picture was presented side by side with experiments were run and then com- wildering. Proper scale construction its mirror image. The participant de- bined after neither produced signifi- involves precise and often difficult work, pressed a key to indicate which picture cant results on its own. including operationalization of the con- he or she liked better. Only after the As in the first experiment, simple struct, finding items that can be demon- preference was registered did the com- t-tests were used to compare partici-

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pants’ hit rates against the chance hit comparisons were carried out without theless, he also states that there was not rate of 50 percent, and a nonparametric any control for multiple testing. a significant sex difference! Though binomial test was used to assess the this seeming contradiction can arise proportion of hits across all sessions. (A EXPERIMENT 4: Retroactive Priming II statistically, it is up to the researcher to third statistic was also calculated; it is Experiment 4 is described as a replica- make sense of it—which Bem does not. said to correct for unequal frequencies tion of Experiment 3 “with one major of left/right target positions within change and two timing changes.” Sim- EXPERIMENT 6: Retroactive Habituation II each session.) In this instance, we are ilar positive results were reported. Experiment 6 is described as a replica- not told how many other t-tests were Again, one would need access to all the tion and extension of Experiment 5. carried out; if there were other tests, as data, including the discarded outliers, Trials with erotic picture pairs were is likely, this again would have required before one could properly evaluate the added, and it was hypothesized that the a correction for multiple comparisons. stated conclusions. outcome for erotic pictures would be Of course, because all the data were the opposite of that for the negative pooled, we have no information about EXPERIMENT 5: Retroactive Habituation I pictures and that the participants would how many participants actually scored After the presentation of the previous prefer the habituation picture in fewer at a level significantly above chance. It four experiments, we are now informed than 50 percent of the trials. Bem does seems odd that this information was that Experiment 5 was a pilot for the not explain his reasoning. There was not of interest. basic procedures used in the other ex- also another change: on the basis that Bem reports a significant correlation periments in this article. Why it is pre- men may have simply been less aroused between the score on his two-item sented as the fifth experiment is not ex- than women by the erotic pictures in stimulus-seeking test and psi perform- plained. Experiment 5, thus leading them to not ance, but once again the effect was non- The experiment employed a mere- produce a significant ef fect, it was de- significant for “low stimulus seekers.” exposure protocol10 borrowed from ex- cided to use stronger and more explicit (Could it be that Bem has serendipi- perimental psychology, but Bem “runs negative and erotic images obtained tously invented a two-item scale that it backwards.” The participant is pre- from Internet sites for male subjects. predicts psi ability?) sented with two pictures side by side. Men were also given the choice of One is the “habituation target” and the male-male erotic images and women EXPERIMENT 3: Retroactive Priming I other is “closely matched” to the habit- the choice of female-female erotic im- This experiment involved a “priming” uation target. The participant is then ages. (The reader will recall that this paradigm borrowed from contemporary instructed to indicate which picture he was also done in Experiment 1, which psychological research: participants in- or she likes better. Only then is the par- was run after Experiment 5.) Such dicate as quickly as possible whether a ticipant repeatedly exposed, sublimi- matters should be investigated in fur- picture is pleasant or unpleasant, and nally, to a picture of the “habituation ther pilot studies rather than incorpo- their response time is measured. Just target.” If it turns out that the habitua- rated into what is billed as a replication prior to the presentation of the picture, tion target is the one that was earlier experiment. a positive or negative word (a “prime”) chosen, this is considered a “hit;” it is Bem also tells us that he had not yet is presented briefly (“subliminally”) on assumed that the effect of the repeated introduced by this point his two-item the screen. This prime has been shown subliminal exposure to the target after stimulus-seeking scale into his series of to have an effect in that participants the participant had made a choice op- experiments (remember, Experiments 5 usually respond more quickly when a erated backward in time to influence and 6 were at the beginning of this series positive picture is preceded by a positive that original choice. of nine). Instead, he constructed another word, or a negative picture is preceded The habituation target was chosen ad hoc scale by converting two items from by a negative word, than when picture 53.1 percent of the time, which is Zuckerman’s (1974) well-known Sensa- and word are incongruent. Bem refers reported to be significant at the .014 tion-Seeking Scale into true-false state- to this as a contrast effect. level one-tailed. However, once again ments: “I enjoy watching many erotic Bem has taken this procedure and multiple t-tests (six) are reported, scenes in movies” and “I prefer to date changed it so that the prime is presented which means that the actual p values people who are physically exciting rather after the participant has responded. He need to be adjusted. (Suppose that Bem than people who share my values.” He reports a significant contrast effect. His had begun with .014 as the criterion gives no reason for choosing only these data analyses are very complex, involving value; then the actual Type I error statements, but he does not hesitate to two transformations as well as outlier9 would be 12(12.014)6 =.08, which is treat them as a reliable and valid measure. cutoff criteria; without access to the ac- not significant). While showing no concern for the psy- tual data, it is difficult to evaluate the ad- Incidentally, Bem reports that the chometric properties of these two state- equacy of the analysis. However, it is ob- hit rate was significantly above chance ments, he then arbitrarily defines only vious once again that multiple for women but not for men. None - those who endorse both statements as

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“erotic stimulus seekers.” Thus, an indi- vidual who enjoys “many erotic scenes in movies” but prefers to date people who share his/her values was not considered to be an erotic stimulus seeker. This is purely Making choices about data an ad hoc and unacceptable procedure, again suggesting a cavalier attitude about analysis after the data are the rigors of proper experimentation. As for the data analysis, once again collected introduces unacceptable there were numerous t-tests without opportunity for bias and allows any control for multiple testing, thereby rendering erroneous the claimed signif- selection of a method that suits icance levels. one’s hypothesis. EXPERIMENT 7: Retroactive Induction of Boredom The hit rate was not reported to be sig- nificant in this experiment. The reader would turn out to be the ones that had experimental sessions, and so he con- is therefore spared my deliberations. been better recalled (before the practice). cluded that “the enhanced recall of EXPERIMENT 8: Retroactive Each recalled word was deemed to practice words came at the expense of Facilitation of Recall I be a trial and was scored as either a diminished recall of control words.” practice or a control word. The actual Again, it was found that participants This experiment was an attempt to test difference—recall of practice words who scored low in terms of his stimulus- the hypothesis that the future rehearsal of minus recall of control words—was not seeking scale scored at the chance level a set of words can make them easier to re- analyzed; only a weighted score was in the recall test, while those high in call in the present. (Students would be given, which was that difference multi- stimulus seeking scored above chance. delighted if this effect could be verified plied by the participant’s overall score and harnessed, for they could then do fur- (on both practice and control words). EXPERIMENT 9: Retroactive ther study following a difficult exam and We are told that this was done to give Facilitation of Recall II presumably improve their performance more weight to the scores of those par- This is described as a replication of Ex- on the examination already taken). The ticipants who recalled more words. No periment 8, with one procedural change: design was simple. Participants were appropriate justification is given for this a new practice exercise was introduced shown a set of words and then were tested awkward analysis; an analogy is drawn “immediately following the recall test in for their recall of the words. Subsequently, with the practice of weighting studies an attempt to further enhance the recall they were given practice exercises with a by their sample size in a meta-analysis, of the practice words.” Again, weighted randomly selected subset of those words, but this is a spurious analogy. The ap- scores were calculated, and on this basis and the hypothesis was that as a result of parently arbitrary weighting of scores, a significant result was obtained. How- this subsequent practice, their perform- when the more direct-difference scores ever, on this “replication,” the stimulus- ance on the test (in the past, remember) would offer less ambiguity, renders seeking questions did not correlate with would be enhanced and they would have these findings extremely difficult to in- psi success. My concerns about the data (in the past) recalled more of the words terpret. Making choices about data analysis in Experiment 8 similarly apply that were practiced in the present. analysis after the data are collected in- in this case. The participants were one hundred troduces unacceptable opportunity for undergraduates. Again, they first re- bias and allows selection of a method Overall, then, this is a very unsatis- sponded to the two stimulus-seeking that suits one’s hypothesis. factory set of experiments that does not statements. Next, forty-eight common Making matters more complicated, provide us with reason to believe that nouns were presented serially for three Bem then informs us that another Bem has demonstrated the operation of seconds each. The participant was then twenty-five “control” sessions were run, psi. All that he has produced are claims asked to type out all the words he or she similar to the sessions outlined above of some significant departures from could recall. The computer then selected but without any practice sessions. These chance, and these claims are flimsy twenty-four words at random, and the control sessions were interspersed given the many methodological and an- participant was now instructed to type among the experimental sessions. The alytical problems that I have touched each of the selected words. It was hy- overall recall of words in his control ses- on in this review. Moreover, Ray pothesized that these practiced words sions was no different than that in the Hyman has noted (in my personal

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ness from our participants, let us at least become intimately familiar with the record of their behaviour: the data. Examine them from every angle. Analyze the sexes separately. We have toured the laboratory; Make up new composite indexes. If a datum suggests a new hypothesis, we have found the dirty test try to find additional evidence for it elsewhere in the data. If you see dim tubes and the mislabeled vials; traces of interesting patterns, try to re- organize the data to bring them into we have observed inappropriate bolder relief. If there are participants you don’t like, or trials, observers, or methodology and analysis. We interviewers who gave you anomalous results, drop them (temporarily). Go on a fishing expedition for some- have lost confidence in the thing—anything—interesting. ... chemist, and there seems little When you are through exploring, you may conclude that the data are not strong enough to justify your in- need to poke about further. sights formally, but at least you are now ready to design the ‘right’ study. ... Alternatively, the data may be strong enough to justify re-centering communication with him) that the cor- then turns to quantum mechanics! Even your article around the new findings relation of effect size (as well as signif- if one were to take his interpretation of and subordinating or even ignoring your original hypotheses.... icance level) with sample size is highly his results at face value, the claimed re- significant across this set of Bem’s ex- sults are small and hardly justify an in- Your overriding purpose is to tell the periments, but it is in the wrong direc- cursion into quantum mechanical theory world what you have learned from your study. If your research results sug- tion! “Effect size,” simply put, refers in in the pursuit of accommodation of psi gest a compelling framework for their this case to the magnitude of the dif- phenomena within modern scientific presentation, adopt it and make the ference between the observed scoring theory. most instructive findings your center- rate and the chance rate. Larger sam- While it may seem puzzling that this piece. Think of your data set as a jewel. ples provide a better opportunity to de- distinguished psychologist has produced Your task is to cut and polish it, to select the facets to highlight, and to craft the best tect such a difference if it is truly there, such flawed research, anyone who has setting for it. Many experienced authors and thus effect size should increase read his “Writing the Empirical Journal write the results section first. with increased sample size. However, in Article” (published on his website at But before writing anything, An- Bem’s experiments, the effect size cor- http://dbem.ws/WritingArticle.pdf) alyze Your Data! relates negatively (−.91) with sample would not be surprised. There he pro- Reflections of this advice appear to be size, indicating that the claimed effect vides advice to students regarding the writ large throughout Bem’s research is smaller when the sample size is larger. conduct of re search. A few revealing se- article. Statistical power is a related concept lections (emphasis added): that refers to the ability to detect an ef- Once upon a time, psychologists ob- * * * fect when it is actually there. Hyman served behaviour directly, often for The publication of this set of experi- notes that while power (he uses the log sustained periods of time. No longer. ments will serve no one well. Para - of significance probability as a proxy for Now, the higher the investigator goes psychology is not honored by having this power) should be positively correlated up the tenure ladder, the more re- paper accepted by a mainstream psy- with sample size (technically with the mote he or she typically becomes from the grounding observations of chology journal. Neither does Bem’s square root of sample size), in this series our science. If you are already a suc- paper serve the public well, for it only of studies the correlation is approxi- cessful research psychologist, then adds to confusion about the scientific mately .80—in the wrong direction once you probably haven’t seen a partici- case for the existence of psi. And it does again. This raises a bright red flag and pant for some time. Your graduate as- no service to the reputation of the Jour- further erodes confidence with regard sistant assigns the running of a study to a bright young undergraduate who nal of Personality and Social Psychology. to the conduct of this research. writes the computer program that col- Al though Bem has failed to demon- lects the data automatically. And like * * * strate the existence of mysterious intel- the modern dentist, the modern psychol- lectual powers that defy the normal con- ogist rarely sees the data until they have Having presented his nine experiments, been cleaned by human or computer straints of time and space, there seem Bem then discusses a number of general hygienists. nonetheless to have been mysterious in- issues in parapsychology research and To compensate for this remote- tellectual powers at play here. I refer to

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the decision by the editors of an es- is properly used if one has good reason to predict [2010a]. Psychological Bulletin 136(4): 486–90. teemed psychology journal to publish the direction of the data in advance. Again, using Hyman, R., and C. Honorton. 1986. A joint com- the example of the .01 level, for a one-tailed test muniqué: The psi ganzfeld controversy. Jour- this badly flawed research article. the data only need be extreme enough that they nal of Parapsychology 50: 351–64. “Think of your data set as a jewel,” would be expected by chance alone 1 percent of Jahn, R., B. Dunne, G. Bradish, Y. Dobyns, A. the time or less (compared to 0.5 percent with a Lettieri, R. Nelson, J. Mischo, E. Boller, H. Bem instructs. However, with these two-tailed test). This makes it much easier to Bosch, D. Vaitl, J. Houtkooper, and B. Walter. nine experiments, Bem did not end up claim statistical significance. 2000. Mind/machine interaction consortium: with a polished jewel. Rather, to extend Parapsychologists normally employ two- PortREG replication experiments. Journal of tailed tests because results that are either signifi- Scientific Exploration 14: 499–555. his metaphor, the jewel cracked under cantly above chance or significantly below chance Jeffers, S. 2003. Physics and claims for anomalous the intense pressure used to try to shape are taken to reflect psi. Although Bem indicates effects related to consciousness. In J.E. Al- it to fit expectation. One is left with that he predicted that the erotic pictures would cock, J. Burns, and A. Freeman (Eds.), Psi lead to above-chance scoring, which could justify Wars: Getting to Grips with the Paranormal. nothing but useless fragments that re- using a one-tailed test, what would he have done Exeter, UK: Imprint Academic, 135–52. flect not the light of knowledge but the had the participants scored at a below-chance rate Marks, D., and R. Kamman. 1978. Information biases of the researcher. that would have been significant had he predicted transmission in remote viewing experiments. Rhine, Schmidt, Targ, Puthoff . .. that the results would indeed be below chance? Nature 274: 680–81. Apparently committed to a one-tailed test and ———. 1980. The Psychology of the Psychic. Buf- the list grows on. Plus ça change, plus c’est having made only the above-chance prediction, falo, NY: Prometheus Books. la même chose. n he properly would have had to ignore those Milton, J., and R. Wiseman. 1999. Does psi exist? data—something that parapsychologists do not Lack of replication of an anomalous process Acknowledgements want to do. By using two-tailed tests, parapsy- of information transfer. Psychological Bulletin chologists avoid the problem and also avoid any 125: 387–91. Thanks to Ray Hyman, Scott O. Lilienfeld, suspicion of having changed the direction of their PEAR (Princeton Engineering Anomalies Re - Timothy Moore, and Benjamin Wolozin prediction after having examined the data. search). n.d. Experimental research. Avail able for their very sage comments on an earlier 7. The Bonferroni t-test is a modified t-test online at www.princeton.edu/~pear/experime draft of this article. that adjusts for the number of tests being carried nts.html. out so that the overall likelihood that one of them Rhine, J.B., and W. McDougal. 1934/2003. produces significance by chance alone is kept at Extra-Sensory Perception. Whitefish, MT: Notes a specified level, such as 5 percent. Kessinger Publishing. 1. My discussion is based on the pre-publica- 8. A nonparametric binomial test deals with Storm, L., P.E. Tressoldi, and L. Di Risio. 2010a. tion version of Professor Bem’s article that ap - data divided into two categories and examines the Meta-analysis of free-response studies, 1992– pears on his website at www.dbem.ws/Feeling statistical significance of deviations from a theo- 2008: Assessing the noise reduction model in Future.pdf. retically expected distribution. It is referred to as parapsychology. Psychological Bulletin 136: 2. The p value is the likelihood of having con- “nonparametric” because it does not rely on the 471–85. cluded that there is a significant effect when in parameters of a distribution, such as the mean. ———. 2010b. A meta-analysis with nothing to fact there is not. The lower the p value, the less 9. An outlier is a datum that is numerically hide: Reply to Hyman. Psychological Bulletin likely it is that the null hypothesis (that there is distant from all the other data in the sample, ei- 136: 491–94. no effect) is true. ther as a result of measurement error or because Targ, R., and H. Puthoff. 1974. Information 3. Meta-analysis is a statistical process for test- the data are not distributed in the manner that transmission under conditions of sensory ing the combined results of a number of studies was assumed. shielding. Nature 251: 602–4. that were based on similar research hypotheses. 10. Mere-exposure protocol is a research ap- Zuckerman, M. 1974. The sensation seeking mo- 4. The t-test is a statistical test typically used proach in which participants’ responses are as- tive. In B.A. Maher (Ed.), Progress in Exper- either to compare two means or to compare a sessed with the assumption that having simply imental Personality Research (Vol. 7). New mean with a theoretical expectation—for exam- been exposed (perhaps subliminally) to a stimulus York, NY: Academic Press, 79–148. ple, to assess the difference between an observed object will cause an effect. average success rate and a hypothetical chance James E. Alcock is pro- rate of 50 percent. References fessor of psychology at 5. A Type I error occurs when the null hypoth- York University, Toronto, esis (that there is no effect) is rejected when it is Alcock, J.E. 1988. A comprehensive review of in fact true. major empirical studies in parapsychology in- Canada. He is author of 6. In a two-tailed test, one assesses the data to volving random event generators and remote Parapsychology: Science see whether they significantly differ from what viewing. In Commission on Be havioral and or Magic? and co-editor Social Sciences and Education, Enhancing would be expected by chance in either direction, of Psi Wars: Getting to that is, whether they are greater than or less than Human Performance: Issues, Theories and Tech- what would be expected by chance alone. When niques, Background Papers. Washington, D.C.: Grips with the Paranor- we say that something is significant at the .01 National Academy Press, 601–719. Available mal. He is a member of level two-tailed, this means that we would expect online at http://books. nap.edu/openbook.ph the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry’s executive these results to occur by chance alone only 1 per- p?record_id=778&page=601. Bem, D.J., and C. Honorton. 1994. Does psi council and of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER editorial cent of the time. But, given that either above- board. He may be reached via e-mail at chance or below-chance results are considered to exist? Replicable evidence for an anomalous be meaningful, this 1 percent must be distributed process of information transfer. Psychological [email protected]. in both directions. Thus, above-chance results Bulletin 115: 4–18. would be significant at the .01 level (two-tailed) Bem, D.J., J. Palmer, and R. Broughton. 2001. only if they are so extreme that they would be ex- Updating the ganzfeld database: A victim of A response to this article from Daryl pected to occur by chance half of 1 percent, or 0.5 its own success. Journal of Parapsychology 65: percent, of the time or less. The same would apply 1–6. Bem plus author Alcock’s detailed for below-chance results. Gardner, M. 1977. ESP at random. New York Re- reply to Bem’s response are With a one-tailed test, one also assesses the view of Books, July 14. on our website at data to see whether they significantly differ from Hyman, R. 1985. The ganzfeld psi experiments: what would be expected by chance but in only A critical appraisal. Journal of Parapsychology www.csicop.org one direction, that is, whether they are either 49: 3–49. greater than expected by chance or less than ex- ———. 2010. Meta-analysis that conceals more pected by chance, but not both. A one-tailed test than it reveals: Comment on Storm et al.

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Seven Deadly Medical Hypotheses Many medical hypotheses have been ill-conceived and/or inadequately tested. As a consequence, billions of dollars have been wasted and the public harmed.

REYNOLD SPECTOR

chronic scandal plagues the medical and nutritional well-documented past can predict the future; and so on). We all believe the literature (Spector and Vesell 2006; Spector 2009): unprovable notion that the sun will rise A much of what is published is erroneous, pseudosci- tomorrow. entific, or worse. Two major factors account for a large These assumptions must be made within the “hard” sciences, such as portion of this problem. First, many medical and nutri- physics and chemistry, in which neces- tional hypotheses are ill-conceived (Spector 2009). Sec- sary and sufficient causes for effects have ond, the methods used to test hypotheses are often epis- been discovered that have led to the es- temologically unsound (Spector 2009). Moreover, the tablishment of nomological principles (laws of nature). Standard assumptions same unsound methods are often repeated multiple times are also necessary in medical and nutri- on the same tired hypotheses with the same incorrect re- tional research, much of which (unlike sults. In such studies—which may look superficially ade- research in chemistry and physics) must establish contributory causality because quate to the unsophisticated reader—complex data are multiple “causes” often exist for one ef- collected and displayed, pseudo-statistical analyses are per- fect. Due to the nature of medical sci- formed, and erroneous conclusions are drawn and extrap- ence, probability theory and sound sta- tistical methods are often required to olated to the general public. establish causality. (See Spector and Indeed there is an epidemic of pub- and Vesell 2006; Spector 2009). Vesell 2006 and Spec tor 2009 for a more lished studies that do not follow the How and why does this happen? detailed ac count of these points.) principles of sound medical science— Methodologically, to find the truth the principles demanded (for example) Background in medical and nutritional research in by the U.S. Food and Drug Admin - For decades we have understood how general, the investigator must generate istration (FDA) for the licensure and to perform medical and nutritional ex- a hypothesis. This can be done by intu- sale of . The resulting “find- periments that test a hypothesis. Good ition and/or genius (as in the cases of ings” of such misleading or erroneous science classifies, explains, and predicts Einstein and Newton); more com- studies are often hyped by news media phenomena. Great emphasis is placed monly, a hypothesis results from care- on the day they are reported or pub- on testable cause-and-effect relation- fully analyzing existing data, observing lished without any additional, careful ships. To do good science, a series of experiments of nature (that is, sponta- analysis. Worst of all, it sometimes takes standard assumptions must be made neous biological abnormalities in peo- decades to overturn these false results— (e.g., there is a mind-independent ple), making an analogy with a similar to find and report the truth (Spector world; there is regularity in nature; the situation, or other means. It is critical

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in medical and nutritional research that rare phenomenon in clinical research. entific standards and therefore lead to the generated hypothesis has biological The 4S study’s results are an example faulty, and even dangerous, conclusions. plausibility. of the power of the hypothetical/ In what follows, I will indicate the After a plausible hypothesis is gen- deductive method. In trials such as the seven deadly hypotheses in this bold erated, deductions and predictions can 4S study, which was randomized, type. be made from the hypothesis. Then sci- blinded, controlled, adequately powered entific attempts are made (e.g., through (that is, based on enough human sub- Deadly Hypothesis One properly controlled experiments) to fal- jects to yield a meaningful experimental Over the past fifty years, multiple in- sify or verify the deductions and predic- result [Spector 2009]), and representa- vestigators have argued that you don’t tions—and secondarily to falsify or ver- tive of the to-be-treated population, re- need to follow the hypothetical/deduc- ify the hypothesis. In general, sults can then be (and were) extra polated tive method to find the truth. Either falsification is more convincing than to similar patients with heart disease. the investigator does not need a spe- verification (Spector and Vesell 2006). However, because of the mortality data cific hypothesis and/or can use an inad- Let’s look at an example of superior from the 4S study and the nature of equate method to test the hypothesis medical hypothesis testing. After years of contributory causality (that is, many fac- (Glass and Hall 2008). inconclusive epidemiology/observation studies (for reasons discussed below), a scientific test of the cholesterol hypoth- esis (“High cholesterol is a contributory cause of heart disease and stroke”) was The resulting “findings” of such finally performed by the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study (4S) Group misleading or erroneous studies (1994). The tested statement (deduced from the above hypothesis) was that “If are often hyped by news media you lower cholesterol with a safe drug, you will save lives.” In the 4S study, on the day they are reported or 4,444 coronary heart disease patients with high cholesterol were randomly published without any additional, assigned to receive daily simvastatin (now an inexpensive generic drug that careful analysis. greatly lowers total plasma cholesterol) or a placebo. Death was the primary endpoint. The study was “blinded”: nei- ther the patient nor the investigator (or even the sponsor) knew which patients tors influence death due to cardiovascu- One of the best examples of inade- were taking the drug or which were lar disease), we can only say prospectively quate methodology is the use of epi- taking the placebo until the study was that if a patient takes simvastatin, he has demiology/observation studies to verify completed. After about five years, one- about a one-third less risk of dying over or falsify causal hypotheses when con- third fewer patients who took simvas- a five-year period (on average, for an in- tributory causality is postulated (Spec - tatin were dead (p < .001). This trial dividual heart-disease patient with high tor and Vesell 2006; Spector 2009). Epi- conclusively established that simvas- cholesterol). In other words, there are demiology/observation studies are often tatin saved lives, and it was consistent sometimes multiple “causes” of an effect; termed case-control studies (which are with (but did not prove) the notion that manipulation of a single cause can be retrospective) or cohort studies (which are high cholesterol was “causally” related helpful overall but is not the whole story. prospective). Such studies are some- to death due to heart disease and stroke. In short, the hypothetical/deductive times used to test a hypothesis (e.g., It is critical to note that in this exem- method, when applied, has systemati- “Postmeno pausal women who take hor- plary study there was only one depend- cally and conclusively answered many mone replacement therapy [HRT] have ent variable (whether the patient was questions (hypotheses) in clinical med- less cardiovascular disease than women taking simvastatin or placebo) and one icine and human nutrition. This who do not” [see deadly hypothesis primary outcome (alive or dead—an method is the standard that the FDA two]). However, a fundamental problem endpoint that is clear and unarguable). demands for new drug licensure. with the epidemiology/observation ap- Opera tionally, the primary endpoint Unfortunately, too many published proach is that control subjects and ex- was determined in all patients: a very studies fail to adhere to these high sci- perimental subjects are not randomized,

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which often leads to unknown bias bility that the GWAS approach is inca- Manolio 2008; Psychiatric GWAS Con- (prejudicial error on the part of the re- pable of finding the truth). It could even sortium Coordinating Committee 2009). searcher) and confounding (a problem be that the problem lies in the regulation Each assumption is fraught with poten- that can occur when more than one ex- of gene function or the introns of tial or actual problems. Moreover, unlike perimental variable is in play)—with genes—which GWAS will not find. in other approaches, GWAS cannot de- subsequent erroneous results. More over, Hence, GWAS are probably too sim- tect rare SNP or small genetic deletions statistics are often misapplied to such plistic and, as I note below, generally fail. or amplifications. Exemplifying the pit- data, meaning that data often do not Investigators using the GWAS ap - falls of using this nonrandomized ap- meet the basic assumptions necessary proach eschew the hypothetical/de - proach, investigators sometimes find for statistical analysis (see Spector and ductive randomized approach be cause SNP in patients (but not control sub- Vesell 2006 and Spector 2009 for more they assume that they can survey the en- jects) in areas of the genome that have no details). tire genome efficiently and find abnor- genes, or an “abnormal gene” is some- I will present examples of erroneous malities (Pearson and Manolio 2008; times identified (e.g., the FTO gene that conclusions based on epidemiology/ob- Psychiatric GWAS Consortium Coordi- “causes” obesity). In the case of FTO, servation studies and then describe nating Committee 2009). Be fore de- however, “knockout” mice missing the them in more detail. Because such stud- scribing GWAS, we should briefly re view FTO gene were made, and surprisingly ies often lead to unreliable conclusions, certain basic facts about the human these mice were perfectly normal (Psy- the FDA will generally not accept such genome (HG). The HG is composed of chiatric GWAS Consortium Coordinat- studies for drug licensure. more than three billion bases, which con- ing Committee 2009)! Other potential Another example of studies in which tain approximately 22,000 genes. These problems with GWAS are noted in Pear- there is a lack of a specific hypothesis is genes in turn code for more than 100,000 son and Manolio 2008. the currently popular genome-wide as- different proteins. Less than five percent On balance, notwithstanding the sociation studies, or GWAS (Pearson of the HG codes for the production of great optimism of several years ago, the and Manolio 2008). Such studies as- human genes. Approximately 0.1 percent GWAS method has been a disappoint- sume that in common diseases such as (about twenty million) of the bases vary ment. An immense amount of time and Alzheimer’s and heart disease, there are in humans from individual to individual. money has been spent, but there have multiple “abnormal” genes that “cause” These are called single nucleotide polymor- been no robust genetic findings in ei- these diseases. If researchers “fish” in the phisms (SNP). Approximately one to four ther Alzheimer’s or heart disease; the genome, they will find the “causative” million common SNP can be measured GWAS method must now be consid- genes. How ever, these investigators ig- in GWAS. ered a failure (Couzin-Frankel 2010; nore the strong possibility of epigenetic, Many assumptions are necessary for Pedersen 2010). The general approach developmental, environmental, or other GWAS to work. I briefly summarize of “It’s in the genes and GWAS should potential causes of disease (e.g., gene- these assumptions and the GWAS find it” has not succeeded. After all this environment interactions or the possi- methodology in table 1 (Pearson and expensive negative experimentation, the causes of Alzheimer’s and heart disease Table 1 could still be genetic. GWAS have also been employed to test how certain Methods and Assumptions in Genome-WideTable 1 Association Studies (GWAS) Methods and Assumptions in Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) drugs work (e.g., lithium in manic-de- pressive psychosis). As ex pected, with 1) One can measure accurately approximately one or more million single nucleotide no up-front hypothesis and dubious polymorphisms (SNP) in an individual. methodology, the results have been 2) Specific SNP segregate (travel) with abnormal genes (this is termed linkage fruitless (Perlis et al. 2009). disequilibrium). In summary, the high hopes (hype) 3) Patients can be fruitfully compared with controls using GWAS, although the subjects for GWAS—which was expressed soon are not randomized; SNP associated with abnormal genes can be found in patients but not control subjects. after the HG was sequenced about ten 4) Accurate data can be obtained. years ago—have not yet translated into 5) Because there are many (approximately 50,000) false positives per individual much progress (with a few exceptions) in GWAS at a p < .05 significance level, complex statistical methods must be employed. (Le Fanu 2010). GWAS need to be re- The nonrandomized nature of the comparisons makes the statistical analysis placed by direct sequencing of the por- even more problematic. tions of the genome of interest, compar- 6) The results can be repeated in other patient and control-subject populations. ing patients with proper control 7) After the abnormal SNP is located, the abnormal gene in the genetic neighborhood can be located. subjects. This work can and should be done. As I have noted, it is entirely pos- sible that non-genetic causes are re-

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sponsible for the diseases that have thus vation studies cannot reliably establish pression of severe postmenopausal far been studied with GWAS. causality unless they satisfy the rigorous symptoms at the lowest effective dose. Hill criteria (Spector and Vesell 2006; This is a flagrant example of the Deadly Hypothesis Two Spector 2009). The Hill criteria are harm done by straying from the princi- Advocating the widespread use of post- standard, accepted criteria to establish ples of the hypothetical/deductive ap - menopausal hormone replacement causality in epidemiology/obser vation proach and sound clinical science. It therapy (HRT) with estrogen and studies. Moreover, statistics cannot be took over twenty years to correct this progestin was a serious error. This ad- applied to epidemiology/ observation error, and in the process many women vocacy was based, in part, on erroneous studies because they are not randomized were harmed. epidemiology/observation studies. Tak- and therefore don’t satisfy the assump- ing advantage of these (now known to tions for proper statistical analysis. Fi- Deadly Hypothesis Three be erroneous) data, the pharmaceutical nally, why would an investigator, in ad- Vitamins A through E are essential di- industry instituted heavy advertising vance, expect postmenopausal women etary substances. Required quantities are campaigns for HRT products. Let’s re- who take HRT to be the same in all other suggested in the recommended dietary view the background information and respects as women who do not take HRT allowances (RDAs). However, in several hypothesis. (a basic assumption of the epidemiol- situations, more may be needed (e.g., in Menopausal women stop secreting ogy/observation studies)? Thought ful ob- the elderly, who often require more of vi- estrogen and progesterone, two hor- servers would guess that women who take tamins B12 and D, and in people with mones associated with youth and fertil- HRT are more health conscious. As certain rare disorders [Spector 2009]). ity. The hypothesis was that if women might be expected, bias and confounding Based on analogy arguments, some in- replace these missing hormones post- invalidated most of the findings of these vestigators suggest that if small dosages menopausally with HRT, they will re- studies, although (as indicated above) a of vitamins are good for humans, very main “youthful” and not suffer from few findings turned out to be correct. large doses () heart disease, dementia, vaginal dry- The FDA, Dr. Bernadine Healy (as would be better for everyone. These vi- ness, hot flashes, and fractured bones. director of the National Institutes of tamins include vitamins C and E and the To maintain this effect, the patient Health [NIH], 1991–93), and others B vitamins. (High doses of vitamin A must take HRT indefinitely. The pro- did not accept these optimistic claims and D are very toxic.) In megavitamin ponents of this hypothesis ignored the for HRT based on epidemiology/ therapy, the dose is at least ten times well-documented fact that estrogen is a observation studies. In stead, a group in larger than the RDA. carcinogen that causes breast cancers California, along with the NIH, initi- This general hypothesis does not that kill women (Chlebowski et al. ated proper large, prospective, random- have biological plausibility because the 2010). ized, blinded, controlled trials (Banks human body has very efficient homeo- This HRT hypothesis was tested in and Canfell 2009; Prentice et al. 2009). static systems that keep tissue vitamin over one hundred nonrandomized case- The results clearly showed that HRT levels constant. I pointed this out to control and cohort studies. In stances of was harmful overall. HRT did decrease Linus Pauling in a 1977 issue of the New health problems such as heart attack, postmenopausal symptoms and frac- England Journal of Medicine. At that stroke, blood clots, fractures, and so tures, but it increased risks of cardiovas- time, Pauling believed that megavitamin forth were compared in the women cular disease (including stroke), invasive therapy with vitamin C im proved cog- taking estrogen (and progestin, a syn- cancer of the breast (by about 25 per- nitive function. I observed that it is not thetic form of progesterone) against cent [Chlebowski et al. 2010]), and possible to more than double the plasma women not taking HRT. Based on probably dementia. Based on HRT use level of vitamin C, even with gram these (biased) studies, false claims were and a 25 percent increase in breast can- quantities of oral vitamin C; the RDA is made that HRT protected against car- cer, this generally unnecessary use of 60 milligrams (Spector 1977). Second, a diovascular disease and dementia. HRT caused approximately 5,000 more doubling of the plasma level will increase However, it turned out that HRT did deaths per year from breast cancer the brain concentration of vitamin C by protect against fractures and post- (Chlebowski et al. 2010). (As an aside, less than 10 percent. Pauling accepted menopausal symptoms (e.g., hot in legal challenges the U.S. Supreme this and abandoned the argument that flashes, vaginal dryness) and that HRT Court has upheld the notion that HRT vitamin C improves mental functioning, caused a 25 percent increase in invasive causes breast cancer.) There is now a but many others did not. breast cancer, a finding later confirmed broad consensus, based on controlled In fact, a vast megavitamin industry in the controlled, scientific trials (Chle - studies, that HRT should not be used has sprung up to satisfy the unscientific bowski et al. 2010). by postmenopausal women for chronic demand for megavitamin amounts of B, Unfortunately the investigators ig- disease prevention; instead, HRT C, and E. As I and others have pointed nored the fact that epidemi ology/obser - should be used only for short-term sup- out, the epidemiology/observation stud-

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ies suggesting that vitamins B, C, and E tested in properly controlled trials either challenges of experimentation and time are beneficial in preventing heart disease, does nothing or is harmful (with a few (e.g., the Pap test for cervical cancer, cancer, and dementia were subsequently well-defined exceptions) (Spector 2009; ). For example, forty years disproved in huge well-controlled scien- House et al. 2010). The hypothesis was ago, it was recommended that all adults tific trials (Spector 2009). Recently, never biologically plausible, and the re- have an annual chest X-ray examina- megavitamin E was shown not to pre- sults are clear. The epidemiology/ tion, a bad idea now abandoned. More vent cataracts after over ten years of use observation studies were once again recently, all men over age forty were (Christen et al. 2008). misleading. Disproving the mega - urged to have a prostate-specific anti- A similar hypothesis (again based on vitamin hypotheses has cost hundreds gen (PSA) test to screen for prostate erroneous epidemiology/observation of millions of dollars; even worse, the cancer. However, careful studies have studies) is that megavitamins B6, folate public’s current widespread use of these suggested that such screening does (B9), and B12 taken in combination worthless preventatives runs into bil- more harm than good (Spector 2010). lower the homocysteine blood level and lions of dollars. Notwithstanding the In fact, in a recent New York Times edi- thus prevent cardiovascular disease and overwhelming evidence that it is harm- torial (Ablin 2010), the discoverer of stroke. Multiple controlled trials of this ful or useless, megavitamin therapy is the PSA test vituperatively argued hypothesis have been performed in peo- still widely used. Why? The psycholog- against the utility of PSA screening for ple with and without an elevated homo- ical, commercial, and historical reasons prostate cancer, consistent with my ear- cysteine blood level. Although there was are multiple and very complex, due in lier arguments (Spector 2010). a decrease in plasma homocysteine level, part to the constant recycling of old, in- Even the use of mammography for there was no beneficial effect on cardio- correct data (Spector 2009). In my view, breast-cancer screening is not without vascular disease and stroke in healthy Congress should give the FDA the au- its critics and skeptics (Kalager et al. people (House et al. 2010). There was thority to regulate or prohibit the sale of 2010). Although it is often true that no obvious harmful effect in healthy worthless, or in some cases even harm- early detection of breast cancer is useful, subjects either. However, in renal-failure ful, supplements. Convincing the public approximately 62,000 cases of ductal patients, whose homeostatic systems not to use worthless supplements is like carcinoma in situ (DCIS) are discovered cannot control plasma vitamin levels successfully cutting off all of a hydra’s every year in the United States, espe- well, there were further declines in renal heads at once—it is not possible unless cially in older women (Spector 2010). In function and more heart attacks, strokes, you are a Hercules. more than 50 percent of these cases, the and deaths in the megavitamin group lesion will not progress and does not (p<.04) (House et al. 2010). Because Deadly Hypothesis Four need more than simple treatment (e.g., many elderly people (over age sixty-five) Many doctors incorrectly believe that clinical biopsy or long-term follow-up have decreased renal function, megavit- screening tests beyond the standard observation). However, we do not know amin B therapy is probably also risky for medical examination1 are necessary for which patients to treat vigorously, so al- them. Megavitamins B, C, and E should identifying disease or the risk of disease most all women with DCIS are cur- carry warnings discouraging their use by in apparently healthy, asymptomatic rently treated with surgery and/or radi- patients with renal failure and those adults. Common sense argues strongly ation, and some of them are given over sixty-five until there is convincing for this hypothesis. But the evidence for chemotherapy. This means that about evidence of benefit. it is weak. 30,000 women per year are unnecessar- In summary, megavitamin therapy Only a few tests have withstood the ily treated. How ever, all things consid- ered, on balance, mammography every TableTable 2 2 other year is probably reasonable. We must figure out who with DCIS doesn’t ProblemsProblems with with Genetic Screening Screening need treatment and who does (Kalager 1) Validation and accuracy of methods are often unknown, causing a problem of false et al. 2010). positives In the past several years, certain 2) Lack of regulatory oversight commercial laboratories have begun to 3) May reveal a very small risk (in most cases) of developing the disease (e.g., Crohn’s offer genetic screening to identify dis- disease) ease risk in adults (Offit 2008). These 4) Even if risk is discovered, there may be no effective intervention tests include GWAS, sequencing the 5) Cost of testing 6) Unproven utility of pharmacogenetic testing, even if convincing differences are found genome, testing for “known” SNP (e.g., 7) Psychological damage in some cases breast and prostate cancer), or testing 8) Inability for even experts to interpret some tests for paternity and family relationships. 9) Commercial laboratories are profit driven in a direct-to-consumer approach—in many Some companies even suggest products cases, no physician or health professional orders the test or recommendations for skin, nutri- tional, or body-weight concerns using

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proprietary SNP panels. These screen- cancers. How ever, more than one hun- dards.) The consequence of such advice ing tests are offered direct-to-consumer dred epidemiology/observation studies is that people think they are reducing in many cases. (mainly case-control studies in the their risk of cancer by eating lots of fruits I show the multiple problems asso- 1970s and ’80s) seemed to support this and vegetables, fiber, and folate, but they ciated with genetic screening in table 2 hypothesis. Cancer rates were as much are not. The final irony is that (so far) no (Pearson and Manolio 2008). Of as 50 percent higher (in those persons cancer-preventing phytochemicals have course, to be useful such testing must who eschewed fruits, vegetables, and been found in fruits and vegetables: the provide information above and beyond fiber) in some studies (Willet 2010). search for them was doomed because it that provided in the patient’s history, These flawed studies formed the basis was based on faulty epidemiology/obser- physical exam, and standard laboratory of the National Cancer Institute’s vation studies (Willet 2010). tests. Take one of the best arguments (NCI) 1991 “5-A-Day” program to in - Currently, there are new claims that for genetic testing—that it helps detect crease the average American consump- a high intake of fruits and vegetables the risk of Crohn’s disease, which oc- tion of fruits and vegetables to five or protects against heart disease (Daucher curs in 0.2 percent of the population. more servings per day. The NCI also et al. 2006). Once again, these claims Those with high-risk genes have less initiated a (fruitless) search for the “pro- are based on nonrandomized epidemi- than a 4 percent chance of developing tective” phytochemicals in fruits and ology/observation studies. These data this disease (Ioannidis 2009). Moreover, vegetables (Willet 2010). do not satisfy the Hill criteria for there is nothing you can do to prevent However, more recent and careful causality and must be taken as—at Crohn’s. So why bother? However, nutritional research using randomized best—hypothesis generating, not fact. there are a few people (e.g., women methodology or careful, large cohort Moreover, there is evidence for publi- who are at high risk for breast cancer) trials have debunked this hypothesis cation bias; only the positive studies are for whom genetic screening is useful (Willet 2010; Spector 2009). There is published (Daucher et al. 2006). Until and does affect treatment (Offit 2008). no sound evidence that five or more proper scientific studies are done, these Another hyped form of genetic test- daily servings of fruits and vegetables, claims must be considered at best un- ing is pharmacogenetic testing (see table large amounts of fiber, or supplemental proven. 2) used to improve drug prescribing and folate prevent cancer. Here we have outcomes. Take the best example of a parts of the U.S. government (e.g., U.S. Deadly Hypothesis Six drug where pharmacogenetic testing has Department of Agri culture [USDA] Personalized medicine will greatly ad- supposedly benefited patients: the anti- and the NCI) proposing erroneous ad- vance medical care (Woodcock 2007). coagulant warfarin, which is notoriously vice based on outrageously poor science. By personalized medicine, I mean a tricky to use—in part because different (Fortu nately, the FDA has higher stan- method to prevent, diagnose, and/or individuals metabolize the drug differ- ently based on genetic differences. How- ever, even knowing the genetic dif fer ences TableTable 3 3 through screening doesn’t improve the TreatmentsTreatments That Work Work accuracy of warfarin prescriptions in a cost-effective way (Ioannidis 2009). Disease Mode* Drug Class Mode of Action† Generic Example One editorialist noted that when all 1° 2° Rx of these issues are thoughtfully evalu- Heart disease, Yes Yes — Statins Uncertain Simvastatin ated, genetic testing (screening) is “too stroke limited, too expensive, and too soon” High blood Yes Yes Yes Multiple Specific Multiple (Ioannidis 2009). pressure

Deadly Hypothesis Five Fractures Yes Yes — Bisphosphonates Specific Alendronate Many erroneously believe that manipu- Stomach Yes Yes Yes Proton pump Specific Omeprazole ulcers inhibitor (PPI) lating one’s nutrition can prevent cancer. Specifically, the claim is made that a Over fifteen Yes —— Vaccines Specific Multiple high dietary intake of vegetables, fruits, infectious diseases fiber, and folate can prevent cancer, es- pecially bowel cancer. In retrospect, this * 1° means primary prevention (prevents initial manifestation of disease); 2° means secondary hypothesis does not seem plausible be- prevention (prevents recurrence of disease); Rx means treatment. Yes means treatment works; — cause many populations (e.g., those in means there is no evidence for efficacy. northern countries) do not eat many † Specific means interruption at a defined place in the pathophysiology of the disease. In the case of fruits, vegetables, and fiber yet do not statins, it is uncertain whether reduction in plasma cholesterol is responsible for the drugs’ efficacy. suffer from an increased incidence of

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treat an individual patient with newer, (PPI) work in essentially all compliant tems, but these are not really products non-routine methods to increase the patients; high-blood-pressure drugs, of personalized medicine. Furthermore, chance of medical success (e.g., by using statins, and bisphosphonates also work we need more comparative scientific genomic tests). In fact, there is often physiologically or biochemically in al- evaluations of screening and treatment great variability in patients’ responses to most all compliant patients. In fact, with methods. certain diseases and treatments. This vaccines and PPI, the physician could However, so far, personalized medi- issue complicates treatment and prog- not do much better if he had a magic cine (e.g., genetic testing and genetic nosis. As such, personalized medicine is wand. Moreover, not only do these forecasting in predicting drug metabo- being developed to focus more on the drugs work in essentially everyone, but lism in an individual patient) has only individual patient (in terms of diagnosis, most patients require only standard been shown to be cost effective in a few treatment, prognosis, and in many cases doses or a few injections with little titra- well-defined situations (e.g., certain very- prevention), versus the medicine that is tion. The drugs and vaccines listed in high-risk mutations in breast cancer), as currently practiced. Can we anticipate table 3 are safe, and the physician does noted previously (Offit 2008). More over, which patients are susceptible to a dis- not need to worry about drug absorp- many of the current personalized moni- ease and intervene to stop it? Can we tion, metabolism, or excretion. In short, toring methods in individual patients are direct an individual patient to a specific the benefits are enormous and the risk known to be less than ideal (e.g., moni- optimal therapy? Can we select patients is minimal. In fact, vaccines have essen- toring of tumor size after chemotherapy, for treatment who have a better or tially eliminated many individual dis- because changes in tumor size may have worse prognosis? eases and classes of diseases (e.g., polio, no relationship to patient survival). For Before attempting to fix the current hepatitis A and B) in all those who are example, in some people with lung can- medical system (not ignoring the deliv- vaccinated. We don’t need more person- cer, the drug gefitinib causes impressive, ery of health care, which is currently alized medicine with such treatments, indeed remarkable, shrinkage of the tu- broken), we need to analyze briefly the though we do need to continue efforts mors, but these patients do not live any current state of diagnosis, therapy, prog- to reach out to those who refuse to vac- longer than those who had not taken nosis, and prevention to see what is bro- cinate their children. To make major ad- gefitinib (Woodcock 2007). Thus, in ken. Since World War II, there have ditional progress, we require a better un- many cases tumor shrinkage per se is not been steady advances in many aspects of derstanding of the causes of disease and a good marker of a patient’s overall re- medicine—especially diagnosis, treat- their mechanisms, such as in heart dis- sponse. A good therapy should meaning- ment, and prevention. The success of ease and high blood pressure. fully prolong life and improve the quality vaccines to prevent scourges is nothing Where clinical medicine has ab jectly of life at a reasonable cost. We clearly short of miraculous. Let’s focus on five failed is in the therapy of cancer and the need better markers and treatments for modern useful treatments, including major brain diseases (e.g., dementias, cancer. preventive measures such as vaccines psychotic disorders). Except for surgery The important truth is that many of (table 3). We understand the diseases to remove tumors, which sometimes these problematic situations in medicine and their therapies in table 3 quite well has curative results, we don’t understand occur due to either ignorance or the fact on a causal or a phenomenological level. how to treat most adult cancers effec- that general improvements in the health Vaccines and proton pump inhibitors tively (Spector 2010). Similarly, the care delivery system are needed, not a aforementioned brain diseases are lack of personalized medicine. For Table 4 treated symptomatically, often with example, when we better understand poor results. cancer, we will be able to intervene Potential Areas for Can more personalized medicine ration ally. Personalized medicine is not Improvement in Medical Care greatly improve the current situation? the long-term answer. Attempting to Proponents say that improvements im prove marginal therapies for individ- 1) Subgrouping of patients (e.g., male could be made in several areas (see table ual patients (Spector 2010) has little and female, old and young) 2) Drug metabolism and disposition 4). I concur that small improvements long-term potential compared to the (genetic basis) could be made in some of those areas. successful revolutionary changes shown 3) Disease subsets (e.g., breast cancer, In fact, modest improvements have al- in prevention and treatment (e.g., vac- asthma) ready been made in sub-classifying pa- cines and PPI [see table 3]). 4) Monitoring response (e.g., the drug tients (such as those with breast cancer gefitinib in lung cancer) and certain lymphomas) in terms of Deadly Hypothesis Seven 5) Quality of prescribing (use of generics) prognosis and therapy. Indeed, there is From a cancer-patient population and 6) Effectiveness studies 7) Genetic forecasting potential to better rationalize drug perspective, cancer chemo - therapy by increasing the prescribing of therapy (chemo) has been a major med- generics and using computerized sys- ical advance. This hypothesis is false.

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Two hundred thousand more Americans die of cancer every year today than in 1974, three years after the war on cancer was launched by President Nixon and In many cases tumor shrinkage Congress (see Spector 2010). In fact, the major positive cancer news is that lung per se is not a good marker of cancer has declined appreciably because of the decline in smoking; stomach can- a patient’s overall response. cer in the United States has also declined A good therapy should dramatically for unknown reasons. Of course, there have been a few meaningfully prolong life very successful chemotherapy (and ra- diation) treatments (e.g., for choriocar- and improve the quality of life cinoma, testicular cancer, Hodgkin’s disease), but these patients make up at a reasonable cost. only a small fraction of cancer patients (Spector 2010). In fact, when age- and sex-matched populations are consid- extremely distressing that we are unable As I’ve noted, many of the danger- ered, the average cancer patient is only to repeat even the marginal benefits of ous consequences of these seven erro- 5 percent better off now than in 1950 some of these drugs (e.g., the very ex- neous hypotheses and the waste of the (Spector 2010). pensive and toxic drug bevacizumab vast quantity of resources used to dis- The hypothesis behind current can- [Avastin]) in larger repeat clinical trials prove them could have been avoided if cer chemotherapy is deeply flawed. (Ioannidis and Karassa 2010). It is ab- the hypothetical/deductive method had How can we expect these drugs, most of solutely clear that we need a better un- been applied rigorously. In addition, which are nonspecific cellular poisons, derstanding of cancer before real there are several reasons for calling the to kill only wily cancer cells and not progress is possible (Varmus 2010). above seven hypotheses “deadly.” First, normal cells? In fact, cancer chemother- for example, in the case of HRT use by apy routinely kills bone marrow and the Conclusion postmenopausal women, a deadly hy - cell lining of the gastrointestinal tract, Modern medical science has overcome pothesis led to an increased incidence with very distressing (indeed sometimes many incorrect hypotheses and harmful of heart disease, stroke, and fatal breast fatal) side effects. From a population practices, including prayer for disease, cancer with no countervailing benefit. perspective, there has been relatively lit- phlebotomy for fever, and insulin-coma Second, in the case of nutritional inter- tle lengthening of life. Physician David therapy for schizophrenia. We know ventions that do not prevent disease, Nathan compares cancer chemotherapy from bitter experience that unproven hy- such hypotheses give patients a false to “carpet bombing,” a harsh but apt de- potheses should be tested and proven sense of reassurance and often prevent scription (Spec tor 2010). However, it before they are widely deployed; this is them from taking more effective meas- cannot be denied that there are a few the standard of the FDA, which gener- ures. Third, in the case of false beliefs populations for which chemotherapy is ally requires at least two large random- based on erroneous hypotheses, these marvelously effective, as noted above, ized, controlled studies before approving beliefs often prevent progress or cause and must be used. a drug for marketing. The FDA’s rigor- the scientific establishment to chase Even the newer, so-called “targeted” ous approach has stood the test of time. shadows instead of culprits (e.g., phy- chemotherapy drugs often have dis- Over the past seventy-five years, sci- tochemicals in fruits and vegetables to tressing and sometimes fatal side effects entific hypothesis-testing has been con- prevent cancer). Finally, the truth is (Spector 2010). When one dispassion- tinuously refined with great ad vances in valuable in itself; from bitter experience, ately weighs the minimal prolongation probability theory, biostatistics, and the we know that the truth “pays.” of “good” life in patients with metastatic subsequent extrapolation of results to However, many centrifugal forces cancer (e.g., lung, pancreas, brain, colon, large groups. More over, because it em- work against the hypothetical/deduc- breast) versus the very distressing side ploys the three philosophical criteria for tive approach. These forces include the effects of chemotherapy with “targeted” truth (correspondence, coherence, and overuse of easy-to-perform epidemiol- drugs, the case is close. Are a few addi- pragmatic theories), the hypothetical/de- ogy/observation studies, which—being tional months of life, on the average, ductive method used in medical science nonrandomized—are subject to bias worth the often terrible price in dollars has been wildly successful (Spector and and confounding and therefore often and side effects in so many cases? It is Vesell 2006). yield incorrect results (Spector and

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Vesell 2006). GWAS suffer from the References studies: History, rationale, and prospects for same problems: no hypothesis; non- Ablin, R.J. 2010. The great prostate mistake. The psychiatric disorders. American Journal of Psy- chiatry 166: 540–56. randomized control groups, which re- New York Times, March 10. Banks, E., and K. Canfell. 2009. Hormone ther- Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study Group. sult in comparisons of uncertain valid- apy risks and benefits—The Women’s Health 1994. Randomized trial of cholesterol lower- ity; and, so far, tremendous problems Initiative findings and the postmenopausal ing in 4444 patients with coronary heart dis- ease (4S). Lancet 344: 1383–89. with replication of such studies and re- estrogen timing hypothesis. American Journal of Epidemiology 170: 24–28. Spector, R. 1977. Vitamin homeostasis in the sults that are of uncertain meaning or Chlebowski, R.T., G.L. Anderson, M. Gass, et al. central nervous system. New England Journal 2010. Estrogen plus progestin and breast can- of Medicine 296: 1393–98. trivial importance. ———. 2009. Science and pseudoscience in adult Those guilty of perpetuating worth- cer incidence and mortality in postmeno - pausal women. Journal of the American Medical nutrition research and practice. SKEPTICAL less practices include the “scientists” Association 304: 1684–92. INQUIRER 33(3) (May/June): 35–41. who repeatedly employ flawed methods Christen, W.G., R.J. Glynn, E.Y. Chew, et al. ———. 2010. The war on cancer: A progress re- port for skeptics. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 34(1) and then publish them, government 2008. Vitamin E and age-related cataract in a randomized trial of women. Ophthalmology ( January/February): 25–31. agencies who fund such practices, edi- 115: 822–29. Spector, R., and E. Vesell. 2006. Pharmacology Couzin-Frankel, J. 2010. Major heart disease and statistics. Pharmacology 78: 113–22. tors of journals that publish pseudo- Varmus, H. 2010. Ten years on: The human science, the USDA and NCI bodies genes prove elusive. Science 1220–21. Daucher, L., P. Amouyel, S. Hercberg, et al. 2006. genome and medicine. New England Journal that perpetuate unscientific regimens, Fruit and vegetable consumption and risk of of Medicine 362: 2028–29. the megavitamin and health-product coronary heart disease: A meta-analysis of co- Wade, N. 2010. A decade later, gene map yields few new cures: Medical uses limited. The New manufacturers who capitalize on bad hort studies. The Journal of Nutrition 136: 2588–93. York Times, June 13. science, and the members of the media Glass, D.J., and N. Hall. 2008. A brief history of Willett, W.C. 2010. Fruits, vegetables, and cancer who hype findings without proper eval- the hypothesis. Cell 134: 378–81. prevention: Turmoil in the produce section. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 102: uation (Spec tor 2009). More recently, as House, A.A., M. Eliasziw, D.C. Cattran, et al. 2010. Effect of B-vitamin therapy on pro- 510–11. I’ve already noted, the marketers of gression of diabetic nephropathy. Journal of the Woodcock, J. 2007. The prospects for ‘personal- GWAS “products” (putative personal- American Medical Association 303: 1603–9. ized medicine’ in drug development and drug therapy. Clinical Pharmacology and Thera - ized medicine) have begun selling tests Ioannidis, J.P.A. 2009. Personalized genetic pre- diction: Too limited, too expensive, or too peutics 81: 164–69. of uncertain utility directly to the public soon? Annals of Internal Medicine 150: 139– Reynold Spector, MD, (Wade 2010; Offit 2008). The FDA has 41. has served as professor reservations about these products but Ioannidis, J.P.A., and F. Karassa. 2010. The need to consider the wider agenda in systematic re- of medicine (and phar- has not yet stopped their sale (Pollack views and meta-analyses. British Medical macology and/or bio- 2010). Both subtle and arrant Journal 341: 762–65. chemistry) at the Uni- abound. Kalager, M., M. Zelen, F. Langmark, et al. 2010. versity of Iowa, Stanford, Effect of screening mammography on breast- The solution, of course, is that the cancer mortality in Norway. New England and Harvard-MIT. scientific community, government, and Journal of Medicine 363: 1203–10. Dr. Spector is currently a media must work together to demand Le Fanu, J. 2010. Is modern genetics a blind alley? clinical professor of medicine at Robert Wood British Medical Journal 340: 1008–9. good science and its attendant results. Johnson Medical School (New Jersey) and is Offit, E. 2008. Genomic profiles for disease risk. author of two hundred peer-reviewed scien- Honest corporations must be enlisted. Journal of the American Medical Association tific papers and one textbook. His award-win- Most important, regulators must inter- 299: 1353–54. Pearson T., and T.A. Manolio. 2008. How to in- ning work has been concerned principally with vene and stop the marketing of unsafe terpret a genome-wide association study. drug and vitamin function, transport, and or unproven products. We must keep Journal of the American Medical Association homeostasis in the central nervous system; knocking off the hydra’s ever-appearing 299: 1335–44. Pedersen N.L. 2010. Reaching the limit of the effect of food on the function of the kid- heads. Although no Hercu les is in sight, genome-wide significance in Alzheimer dis- ney; and treatment of the poisoned patient. there is hope. We know better. n ease. Journal of the American Medical Associa- He also served at Merck & Co. from 1987 to tion 303: 1864–65. 1999, retiring as executive vice president Perlis, R.H., J.W. Smoller, M.A.R. Ferreira, et al. in charge of drug development. There he over- Acknowledgement 2009. A genomewide association study of re- saw the introduction of fifteen new drugs I thank Michiko Spector for her help in man- sponse to lithium for prevention of recurrence uscript preparation and Dr. Robert Snodgrass in bipolar disorder. American Journal of Psy- and vaccines. He previously wrote the SKEPTI- 166: 718–25. for his careful reading of the manuscript and chiatry CAL INQUIRER articles “Science and Pseudo- Pollack, A. 2010. F.D.A. faults companies on un- science in Adult Nutrition Research and Prac- wise comments. approved genetic tests. , June 12. tice” (May/June 2009), “The War on Prentice R.L., J.E. Manson, R.D. Langer, et al. Cancer: A Progress Report for Skeptics” Note 2009. Benefits and risks of postmenopausal (January/February 2010), “A Skeptic’s View of 1. The standard medical examination consists hormone therapy when it is initiated soon Pharmaceutical Progress” (July/August of taking the personal and family history of the after menopause. American Journal of Epi- 2010), and “A Skeptic’s View of Prevention patient and conducting a physical examination, demiology 170: 12–23. standard laboratory blood tests, a urine analysis, Psychiatric GWAS Consortium Coordinating and Treatment of Heart Disease and Stroke” and a baseline electrocardiogram. Committee. 2009. Genomewide association (September/October 2010).

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Intravenous Nutrient Therapy: Cure-All or Just One More Unproven Therapy?

Intravenous nutrient therapy is increasingly popular as a treatment for multiple ailments. But the evidence for the efficacy of IV nutrient treatments is speculative at best.

CLIFFORD W. BENINGER

ecently there has been renewed interest among the trolled study (Skobeloff et al. 1989) is not rigorous; not only is it not double-blind, general public in the use of intravenous (IV) nutri- but it also suffers from other meth - Rent therapy to treat a variety of ailments, including odological problems. For example, the chronic fatigue syndrome, depression, fibromyalgia, hay study did not have a sample of patients that would control for race and gender. fever, chronic sinusitis, congestive heart failure, ischemic In addition, all the patients treated had vascular disease, dementia, bronchitis, and multiple sclero- been recently treated with a beta-ago- sis, as well as viral and bacterial infections. nist, and the authors state that they “also believed that by studying beta-agonist It has been suggested that serum con- no evidence to demonstrate that these resistant patients, any effect after mag- centrations of nutrients reach much higher concentrations are beneficial. nesium infusion would be related to higher levels with IV therapy than can be There is some evidence that IV magnesium and not a delayed effect of achieved through oral consumption. For therapy with magnesium alone can the bronchodilator.” It is not indicated example, IV-administered vitamin C at have beneficial effects in severe acute how long after beta-agonist treatment 50 g/day can result in blood serum levels and chronic cases of asthma (Bichara that IV magnesium treatment began, of 80 mg/dL, compared to 9.3 mg/dL and Goldman 2009; Noppen 2002; and this is crucial information necessary when administered orally (Gaby 2002). Okayama et al. 1987; Skobeloff et al. to assure that there was no delayed effect In addition, it is hypothesized that with 1989; Ciarello et al. 1996; Tiffany et al. of the beta-agonist. high-dose and rapid infusions (usually of 1993) because magnesium is a known However, there is also a randomized, less than thirty minutes), vitamins and bronchodilator, thereby facilitating air double-blind placebo-controlled study minerals are forced into the cells by over- flow (Okayama et al. 1987). However, that clearly shows statistically significant loading the serum and are therefore these authors stress that IV therapy improvement in several measurements “trapped” within the cell. This is the sug- with magnesium should be used in ad- (such as peak expiratory flow rate) taken gested explanation for why beneficial ef- dition to traditional beta-agonist and in pediatric patients with acute asthma fects seem to last long beyond the ex- corticosteroid treatment. Yet there have who were admitted to the emergency de- pected short-term results (Saleeby 2009). also been studies that did not show im- partment (Ciarello et al. 1996). It is This is the theory behind IV nutrient provement in individuals with acute therefore apparent that both the weight therapy. However, no proper scientific asthma (Clague et al. 1992; Howard et of recent evidence and the results of a studies have been published to support al. 1992; Green and Rothrock 1992). rigorous double-blind study indicate the these contentions for how IV nutrient Two studies—one placebo-controlled benefits of IV treatment with magne- therapy actually provides beneficial ef- (Skobeloff et al. 1989) and the other sium in treating acute asthma. There is at fects, if any. Although there is no doubt double-blind placebo-controlled (Cia- this time no clear evidence that magne- that IV nutrient therapy does result in rello et al. 1996)—of IV treatment of sium treatment is beneficial in chronic serum concentrations much higher than asthma with magnesium produced sim- fatigue syndrome (Clague et al. 1992), can be obtained by oral dosing, there is ilar positive results. The placebo-con- but some authors have indicated that

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article (2009). However, this was a vol- Table 1 untary survey, and the CAM practi- Recipe for a Myers’s Cocktail tioners did not have access to their files Ingredient Dose Nutrient but merely relied on memory to fill out the survey forms. In addition, due to Magnesium chloride hexahydrate 20% 2–5 ml Magnesium the very nature of the study, there was Calcium gluconate 10% 1–3 ml Calcium no statistical analysis done to verify Hydroxocobalamin 1,000 mcg/ml 1 ml Vitamin B 12 whether this treatment was efficacious. Pyridoxine hydrochloride 100 mg/ml 1 ml Vitamin B 6 One recent study that was a proper Dexpanthenol 250 mg/ml 1 ml Vitamin B 5 double-blind placebo-controlled inves- B complex 100 1 ml Vitamin B complex tigation into IV nutrient therapy for the Vitamin C 222 mg/ml 4–20 ml Vitamin C treatment of fibromyalgia failed to mcg–microgram, mi–milliliter, mg–milligram. show any statistically significant differ- Credit: Gaby 2002 ence between the control and treatment groups (Ali et al. 2009). In the authors’ own words: “Beneficial effects of intra- the patients treated in that study were cacy of new drugs and treatments. venous vitamin C on the disease condi- not magnesium deficient, whereas their In one recent case study (Shrader tions for which it is used are unproven, own IV magnesium treatment of pa- 2004) that purported to show the ben- but side effects seem to be minor.” Be- tients deficient in this ion showed im- eficial effects of IV nutrient therapy for cause there was no difference between provement (Howard et al. 1992). How- asthma, there was no placebo control, the placebo group and the treatment ever, it is important to note that none and the author admits that “although group, the authors then went on to of these studies followed rigorous med- there were no age-matched control pa- point out significant im provement ical trial protocol; they are simply case tients in this outcome study, and certainly within both groups. This statement studies. uncontrolled variables, considerable im- means nothing scientifically, and the Compared with what’s available provement was observed. ...” study’s high placebo response and small about IV magnesium therapy for This study was not a double-blind, sample size invalidate any claims of ef- asthma, there is a dearth of published placebo-controlled experiment. It sim- ficacy for this procedure in the treat- scientific literature on the benefits of ply measured percent of improvement ment of fibromyalgia. other types of IV nutrient therapy—not or non-improvement as measured by In conclusion, with the exception of only for asthma but for many of the ail- spirometry (pulmonary function test- IV magnesium therapy for acute asthma ments noted above. The most common ing) in a number of individual case and in cases of proven vitamin or min- IV therapy is known as the Myers’s studies over time; therefore it should not eral deficiency, there is very little hard Cocktail; the basic ingredients are in- be considered a reliable indicator of the evidence to support the use of IV nutri- dicated in table 1. However, individual possible benefits of IV nutrient therapy ent therapy in treating a host of conven- doctors may vary the concentrations of in the treatment of asthma. A recent re- tionally difficult-to-treat ailments such each of these ingredients or even add view paper by Myers’s Cock tail revivalist as those mentioned at the beginning of some others. This original formulation Alan R. Gaby (2002) suffers from the this article. More rigorous studies, such was developed by John Myers, MD, a same problems as Shrader’s study as that by Ali et al. (2009), are needed physician from Balti more, Maryland, (2004), in that examples of the cocktail’s to properly determine how efficacious who believed that the use of vitamins efficacy are located within individual IV nutrient therapy is in the treatment and minerals should be part of the case studies of patients with a range of of a variety of diseases. Until these stud- overall treatment of various medical ailments (as documented by Saleeby ies are done, we are left with single or problems (Gaby 2002). [2009]). Gaby’s paper is rarely able to multiple case studies that mean little in Many of the ailments I mentioned cite any rigorous double-blind studies terms of the scientific basis of medicine. earlier have been difficult to treat using with positive results that had been per- The evidence for IV nutrient therapy is conventional medicine, so the public is formed prior to 2002. speculative at best, and at worst it is increasingly drawn to alternative med- A recent voluntary survey study (Pa- based simply on a placebo effect that ical practices that have not, as yet, been dayatta et al. 2010) of complementary helps empty desperately hopeful pa- proven in randomized,double-blind tri- and alternative medicine (CAM) prac- tients’ wallets and purses. n als (in which neither the patients nor titioners attending conferences in 2006 the researchers know which is the treat- and 2008 found that high-dose IV vi- References ment group and which is the control tamin C was in wide use by CAM Ali, Ather, Valentine Y. Njike, Veronica Nor thrup, et al. 2009. Intravenous micronutrient therapy [placebo] group). This type of trial is the practitioners to treat the spectrum of (Myers’ Cocktail) for fibro myalgia: A placebo gold standard for determining the effi- conditions mentioned in the Saleeby controlled pilot study. Journal of Alternative

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and Comple mentary Medicine 15(3): 247–57. Bichara, Marcela D., and Ran D. Goldman. 2009. There’s much more Magnesium for treatment of asthma in chil- dren. Canadian Family Physician 55(9): 887–89. Clague, John E., Richard H.T. Edwards, and Mal- Skep ti cal In quir er colm J. Jackson. 1992. Intravenous magnesium loading in chronic fatigue syndrome. Lancet content available on our website! 340: 124–25. Here’s just a sample of what you’ll find: Ciarello, Lydia, Andrew H. Sauer, and Michael W. Shannon. 1996. Intravenous magnesium ther- 'Back from the Future' Comments and Replies apy for moderate to severe pediatric asthma: Results of a randomized placebo-controlled Read James E. Alcock’s full-length analysis of Daryl Bem’s trial. Journal of Pediatrics 129(6): 809–14. new ESP study, with a complete reply by Bem and a follow-up Gaby, Alan R. 2002. Intravenous nutrient therapy: response by Alcock. “The Myers’ Cocktail.” Alternative Medicine Re- A fascinating critique of an experimental methodology offered for psi. view 7(5): 389–403. Green, Steven M., and Steven G. Rothrock. 1992. Intravenous magnesium for acute asthma: Fail- The Belief with No Name ure to decrease emergency treatment duration Karen Stollznow examines an eclectic New Age organization called Share Inter- or need for hospitalization. Annals of Emergency national. Its members believe, among other things, that “Space Brothers and Medicine 21(3): 260–65. Howard, John M., Stephen Davies, and Adrian Sisters” from Mars and Venus help protect humankind. Hunniset. 1992. Magnesium and chronic fa- tigue syndrome. Lancet 340: 426. Noppen, Marc. 2002. Magnesium treatment for asthma: Where do we stand? Chest 122(2): 396–98. Okayama, Hiroshi, Takashi Aikawa, Michiko Okayama, et al. 1987. Bronchodilating effect of intravenous magnesium sulphate in bronchial asthma. Journal of the American Medical Associ- ation 257(8): 1076–78. Padayatta, Sebastian J., Andrew Y. Sun, Chen, et al. 2010. Vitamin C: Intravenous use by comple- mentary and alternative medicine practitioners and adverse effects. Public Library of Science 5(7). Available online at www.plosone.org/article/in fo%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0011 414. Saleeby, J.P. 2009. The Myers’ Cocktail IV infusion. For more online columns, features, and special content, Available online at http://ezinearticles. visit www.csicop.org com/?The-Myers-Cocktail-IV-Infusion&id= 3123197. Shrader, Welman A., Jr. 2004. Short and long term treatment of asthma with intravenous nutrients. Nutrition Journal 3(6): 6. Available online at www.nutritionj.com/content/3/1/6. Skobeloff, Emil M., William H. Spivey, Robert M. McNamara, et al. 1989. Intravenous magne- sium sulphate for the treatment of acute asthma in the emergency department. Journal of the American Medical Association 262(9): 1210–13. Earn your master’s degree in Science and the Public through Tiffany, Brian R., William A. Berk, Iain K. Todd, et al. 1993. Magnesium bolus or infusion fails the University at Buffalo and the Center for Inquiry! to improve expiratory flow in acute asthma ex- acerbations. Chest 104(3): 831–34. • Explore the methods and outlook of science as they intersect with public culture and pub- lic policy. This degree is ideal for enhancing careers in science education, public policy, and Clifford W. Beninger has science journalism—and prepares you for positions that involve communicating about science. a PhD in biology with a spe- cialization in chemical • This unique two-year graduate degree program is entirely online. Take courses from wherever ecology. He has worked on a variety of research proj- you are in the world at your own pace! Courses include: Science, Technology, and Human ects for the USDA and Uni- Values; Research Ethics; Critical Thinking; Scientific Writing; Informal Science Education; versity of Guelph (Ontario). Science Curricula; and History and Philosophy of Science. He has published thirty- one articles in peer- reviewed journals such as Chemical Ecology, Biochemical Systematics, and Ecology and Food Chemistry. Beninger currently lives in Ottawa and works as a consult- ant. He is a member and science adviser of the Committee for the Advancement of Scientific For details, visit www.gse.buffalo.edu/online/science Skepticism at CFI/Ontario. Questions? Contact John Shook, vice president for research, at [email protected]

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[ FORUMS Do Scientists Know Everything?

KEITH TAYLOR

f you cite science to prove a point, you’re sure to be an- Some incomplete evidence had indi- cated that vitamin E plus selenium might swered with the slur, “Oh, scientists don’t know every- deter prostate cancer, a disease that strikes thing.” Dissing scientists is easy. Even their workplaces older men like me. If this information I were to be substantiated by a thorough and their clothes are different from anyone else’s. Those study, we might not dread our next who work in medical research generally work in rooms so prostate exam. A study was conducted at clean the rest of us are afraid to sneeze in them—and if we the University of Arizona, looking at the recurrence of skin cancer when vitamin E do, the scientists frown at us. Many wear white masks and plus selenium was taken. Another, con- white coats. Others, for some arcane reason, wear green ducted in , zeroed in on lung can- clothes. They use words with more letters in them than the cer and vitamin E plus selenium. Both studies failed in their original premise, but rest of us use for entire sentences. both indicated that the two elements, They indeed don’t know everything, taken together, might deter prostate can- 1 but they are getting there. Scientists do cer. This was just the thing to excite a things a little differently from the rest wheezing geezer like me. I was a semi-re- of us. Rather than constantly proclaim tired septuagenarian with enough time to the truth as revealed by a mysterious worry about it. But, wouldn’t you know it, rather than source or through a breathlessly for- run with what some evidence indicated, warded e-mail (which we must either the scientists had to be sure—and they forward or delete), scientists have to wanted my help. In fact, the National search for facts. This is difficult in a so- Cancer Institute (NCI) wanted the help ciety where folks generally choose what of a whole lot of us, few of whom had the they want to believe. slightest understanding or appreciation of The is a painstak- this vaunted scientific method. They even ing way to get the right answers. If a gave the trial a name and always put it in person is serious about learning whether capitals: SELECT. Keith Taylor is a former a strange occurrence is real or just a NCI recruited me and about 35,000 president and current bump in the laws of probability, she other guys, all over the age of fifty-five, to program chair of the San must first try to prove it wrong. How take part in a double-blind test. Actually, Diego Association for many of those “miracle cures” we see on it might have been called a quadruple- Rational Inquiry, the Internet have been subjected to such blind test. Only one in four participants a science-based a test? But is all the skepticism neces- got both vitamin E and selenium. Each skeptics group. sary? Yep, and I know from experience. of the other three either got a combina- As the program chair for a science- tion of a placebo with vitamin E or sele- based skeptics group, I talk to a lot of nium, or they got two placebos. Then the scientists. I even recently got an inside NCI kept track of us and watched what look at science in action. happened.

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God in the News Again

MARK LEVY

For about seven years, I dutifully n a recent television news broadcast, a Boeing 737 took the NCI’s pills along with another dozen already prescribed by my regular jet airliner crash was reported to have taken place on doctor. My own hypothesis is that our an island in Colombia, South America. The aircraft life expectancy has increased because of O the long life spans of all the chemicals slammed down 300 feet from the runway like a very large we ingest. winged rock. The fuselage broke into three ragged parts, After the seven years, SELECT with flames shooting out, just like in the movies. Its ter- was discontinued. The mysterious guys in white (or maybe green) coats had minal speed was estimated to be 150 miles per hour. De- found that the selenium/vitamin E celerating from 150 to zero in less than a second must combination didn’t work. My wife claimed I’d wasted my time—a natural make riding your average roller coaster seem like standing reaction. Not so, I insisted! Knowledge still, but only one passenger died out of 131 passengers and is knowledge even if it isn’t what we crew members. were originally looking for. Believe me, In the same broadcast, a tragic off-road knowing that selenium/vitamin E will truck race in California’s Mojave Desert not deter cancer is worth the seven was reported. The off-road event ended years of taking the pills if it’ll also deter when a highly modified truck, moving at a deluge of e-mails touting the stuff. more than three times the legal speed limit, Such a deluge would surely be followed careened off a dirt path and rolled over into by another offering selenium/vitamin the crowd. Eight spectators were killed. E from Canada at discount prices. Lately, news reporters seem to work Let me share with you a dictum extra hard to find tragedy survivors who told to me by my favorite scientist, thank God for their survival within a pithy Elie Shneour of the Biosystems Re- sound bite. This seems to be a common search Institute, who is also a member theme and favorite reporting technique. of half a dozen top science groups in- No doubt bleeding-heart, godless TV pro- cluding the National Academy of ducers are behind this technique, satisfying Sciences. Elie said: “A scientist must Mark Levy is an intel- their perverse sense of heretical irony. be able to say two things: I don’t know. lectual property at- “Thank God,” one hears a survivor of a I was wrong.” torney in private Kansas tornado exclaim in the ruins of the That’s a pretty good rejoinder to the practice. He holds a trailer park where he once resided, “my little comment “Scientists don’t know every- BS degree in physics pooch, Toto, is still alive.” thing.” n from the Polytechnic Institute of New York Or, “It’s a miracle,” a survivor ob serves Note University, a JD from after a train wreck kills or maims seventy- 1. Information on the study by the Univer- New York Law School, one people. “My great grandmother’s spe- sity of Arizona and the one conducted in Fin- and an MA in creative writing from Wilkes cial needlepoint of Elvis performing in land was verified by the SELECT office in University in Pennsylvania. Vegas is still intact. It’s an heirloom.” Seattle, Washington.

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[FORUMS

out anyone’s assistance. But a snowball If you’re a theist, you ought to has a better chance in hell than you have of hearing a true believer say acknowledge, at least occasionally, something less than flattering about the ultimate supernatural superhero. that God is responsible Again, Mark Twain noted—and I wouldn’t quote him so much if he for terrible events as well weren’t so logical—that the leaders of organized religion don’t know how to as miraculous ones. reconcile these grotesque contradic- tions, and they don’t even try. Or, “At least my valuable stamp col- scure and unimportant—and heap The reason, I think, has to do with lection is unscathed,” says a flood victim praise on him for it. the Ten Commandments, which—as whose entire house and other worldly Now, you didn’t hear anyone actually legend has it—were dictated by God to possessions teetered over the edge of a give credit to God for allowing the Moses well before airplanes and off- cliff into the Pacific Ocean. “Thank eight bystanders at the sandy, off-track road races. Right near the top of the God for that.” racecourse to perish, but you have to Ten Commandments, sitting in the And so it was with the recent air- believe someone has something nice to second or third position (depending on plane mishap in Colombia. There were say about the deity. The reporters must your religious sect)—ahead of lying, 114 people injured in addition to the still be looking for him. The girlfriend stealing, and murdering—is the sugges- single fatality, but sure enough, a re- of one of the deceased, erstwhile enthu- tion that if you believe in God, you can’t porter located the Caribbean island’s siasts said, “It just isn’t fair; it isn’t right.” berate him. The words are “Thou shalt governor, who said, “It was extraordi- That’s about as close to a condemna- not take the name of the Lord in vain.” nary that almost everyone survived. It tion of God as you are likely to hear, on So you see, the deck is stacked. Even if was a miracle and we have to give or off the air. you suspect that some fatal accident is thanks to God.” So why don’t people ever blame God God’s fault, you can’t call him on it. The This is not an isolated incident. If for disasters? Some survivors are quick very supernatural being you want to there’s a catastrophe, God is to be to thank God when tragedy strikes, but blame has already set the ground rules thanked thoroughly for some inconse- you can’t find a believer who hates or to prohibit you from doing so. It’s noth- quential silver lining to it. If there’s a curses him. If you’re a theist, you ought ing short of a brilliant plan. disaster, God be praised. If there’s a to acknowledge, at least occasionally, Maybe God is less than omnipo- hurricane, a flood, or a tornado, some- that God is responsible for terrible tent—maybe he’s incompetent, inatten- one will surely pop up to testify that a events as well as miraculous ones. As tive, immoral, or even vindictive and miracle occurred. Apparently there is Mark Twain observed, whatever thing vengeful—but he is certainly not stupid. always someone who can identify the God wishes to do, however grand or in- At least he wasn’t when he had that fa- positive thing God does—however ob- significant, he can do that thing with- mous mountaintop chat with Moses. n

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54 Volume 35 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer SI Mar Apr 11 (PL) _SI new design masters 1/21/11 11:21 AM Page 55

REVIEWS] A Little Too Grand?

JUSTIN TROTTIER NEW BOOKS]

hilosophy is dead.” When The Grand Design Listing does not preclude future review. most people speak these By Stephen Hawking and words, they can be readily FOOL ME ONCE: Hustlers, Hookers, Headlin- “P Leonard Mlodinow. ers, and How Not to Get Screwed in Vegas. dismissed for their naiveté. But when Random House Publish- Rick Lax. St. Martin’s Press, New York. 2011. Stephen Hawking, the world’s most ing Group, New York, 304 pp. Paperback, $14.99. Rick Lax, a ma- famous living scientist, makes such a 2010. ISBN: gician, raconteur, would-be pronouncement in the second para- 978-0-80537-6. lawyer, and staff writer at the Las Vegas Weekly, graph of his new book—The Grand 208 pp. Hardcover, $28. Design, co-authored with Caltech takes his readers on a wild ride around Las Vegas. physicist Leonard Mlodinow—many Why? “I headed to Las people will listen, and quite a few of ments that might begin to back up Vegas to meet deceivers, them might then be tempted to buy such weighty assertions, and it pro- befriend them, watch them the book. vides few references to other books or in action, learn from their Curiously, Hawking makes a foray articles that would provide this miss- tricks, and learn to protect myself,” Lax into philosophy only two pages later as ing content. In the absence of such ar- writes. He covers a lot of ground, from magi- cians (including Lance Burton, Criss Angel, he introduces the notion of model-de- guments, the authors’ statements may and Penn and Teller) to card counters and pendent realism. According to this view, come across as simplistic and dog- women of dubious virtue. Of particular inter- there can be no fundamental meaning matic. The book’s imagery also bears est to skeptics are the sections dealing with to the concept of absolute truth beyond this out. Even though the images are deception—how magicians fool us and how what our best physical theories tell us. colorful and aesthetic, they contribute we fool ourselves. Lax obliquely cites some This logic leads to the seemingly bizarre little to the reader’s deeper under- interesting studies on psychology, lying, and deception (including work by Professor possibility of there being two equally standing of the concepts presented. Richard Wiseman and others) and applies real theories with completely different It’s difficult to admit all this. I ad - the lessons learned to his experiences in kinds of explanations, as long as they mire Hawking as much as anyone, Las Vegas. Some of the material is interest- make equally accurate predictions. Al- both for his personal battles and for ing, some of it less so. His claimed naiveté though this contribution to the philos- his professional accomplishments. regarding hot women in Las Vegas is less ophy of science is certainly a valuable How ever, this new book appears to be than convincing. Some—even otherwise or- dinary and nice girls that you might want to one, the manner in which such philoso- aimed mostly at taking advantage of have a relationship with—make their phizing permeates the book stands out the instant market generated for any money by sleeping with rich men? Shock- starkly against Hawking’s opening obit- book that makes brazen comments ing! Lax is at his best when discussing con uary on that very discipline. about God. The additional mix of games (like three-card Monte) and magic. Theology, too, is headed for the short, rehashed commentary on the Fool Me Once is an uneven but often funny memoir with a decidedly skeptical bent. dustbin: “The scientific account is com- search for a “theory of everything” is plete. Theology is unnecessary,” Hawk- correspondingly superficial and has ing said while speaking about his book been better told in many other works, on Larry King Live. Richard Daw kins such as The Elegant Universe by Brian ANGELS: A History. David Albert Jones. Ox- backed this up, stating that Hawking’s Greene and Universe on a T-Shirt by ford University Press, New York. 2010. 224 pp. Hardcover, $19.95. Despite centuries of book “finishes off God. Darwin kicked Dan Falk. theological speculation about angels—from him out of biology, but physics re- That the commentary about God their hierarchies to how mained more uncertain. Hawking is was the main motivation for the book many can dance on the now administering the coup de grace.” is evidenced by the marketing cam- head of a pin—no one I certainly agree with such state- paign that was waged for it—which knows if they exist. Many ments, and I am excited at the prospect was certainly brilliant, considering the people believe they do: instant, if dismissive, reaction voiced by polls suggest that nearly of uniting philosophy, physics, and 70 percent of Americans theology. But The Grand Design is leading Jewish, Catholic, Anglican, think angels exist, and 32 rather deficient in any meaty argu- and Muslim leaders. percent claim that they

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have personally felt an angelic presence. To be fair, Hawking may have a universe is impossible. This is the David Jones, Professor of Bioethics at St. thought it necessary to release such a book’s climactic moment. It’s some- Mary’s University College in England, notes book to clarify his earlier published what satisfying, but it’s far too brief. that though angels are said to dwell in views on God. In A Brief History of Tellingly, critics of The Grand Design heaven, their visits to the earthly realm are Time, he gave ambiguous but not to- don’t just fall in the religious camp. not always benevolent. Biblical angels not only comfort and heal but also wage war- tally dismissive views on the role of Philosophers and scientists also criticize fare, lay siege to cities, and kill people. The God in creating the cosmos, stating: “If the science behind such simple all-en- archangel Michael, for example, is often de- we discover a complete theory, it would compassing pronouncements. Perhaps picted as the leader of God’s Army, destroy- be the ultimate triumph of human rea- the loudest is from physicist and as- ing enemies with his terrible powers and son—for then we should know the tronomer Marcelo Gleiser, author of the flaming sword. Overall, Angels is a fascinat- mind of God.” recently released book ing survey of the topic, touching on nearly A Tear at the Edge every aspect of angels in theology, philoso- of Creation. Gleiser commented on phy, and popular culture. Hawking and Mlodi now’s book for the Australian Broad casting Corporation: “The search for an all-embracing theory of Nature inspired by beauty and perfec- MONSTERS OF NEW JERSEY: Mysterious Creatures in the Garden State. Loren Cole- The book’s tion is misguided, rooted in the man and Bruce G. Hallenbeck. Stackpole climactic moment [is] monotheistic culture that has for so long Books, Mechanicsburg, PA. 2010. 144 pp. dominated Western thought.” Paperback, $12.95. Loren somewhat satisfying, But in all fairness, this critique seems Coleman, director of the to make too much of Hawking’s words, International Cryptozool- but it’s far too brief. ogy Museum in Portland, as here might be the one place where he Maine, is one of the does show humility. Al though Hawking world’s top writers on mys- does take for granted that string or M- terious creatures such as theory is the only real candidate for a Bigfoot and lake monsters. “theory of everything”—and he is cer- In his new book Monsters tainly in the unification business—he of New Jersey, Coleman teams up with New But in The Grand Design, Hawking comes out stating that there may be lim- York writer Bruce Hallenbeck to address and Mlodinow leave little room for am- its on such ambitions: “Each theory in some of New Jersey’s mystery creatures. In biguity, stating, “M-theory predicts that the M-theory network is good at de- its opening chapter “The Jersey Devil,” the a great many universes were created out book provides one of the best (and most scribing phenomena within a certain of nothing. Their creation does not re- thorough) analyses of the creature (of range. Wher ever their ranges overlap, quire the intervention of some supernat- which Coleman “remains open-mindedly the various theories in the network skeptical”). Coleman and Hallenbeck tackle ural being or god. Rather, these multiple agree, so they can all be said to be parts dozens of other monstrosities in seven universes arise naturally from physical of the same theory. But no single the- more chapters: “More Winged Wonders and law.” the Wooo-Wooo”; “Big Red Eye and Other ory within the network can describe Spoiler alert: The highlight of The Garden State Giants”; “Hoboken Monkey- every aspect of the universe.” Grand Design, in my opinion, is a short Man and Urban Unknowns”; “Cape May Sea It may be a sign of how far science two-and-a-half-page section at the Serpent and Marine Monsters”; “Lake has come that even Stephen Hawk- Hopatog Horror and Other Freshwater very end in which the authors explain ing—who appears to some to arrogantly Weirdies”; “Lizardmen and Various Vicious why there must be gravity and how a assume, in often brazen and simple lan- Reptilians”; and “The Ultimate New Jersey universe can spring into existence from Monster.” As you can tell from this list, the guage, that science can unify all knowl- nothing. Essentially, the positive en- book is a hodgepodge of various mysteries edge of the universe—still admits there ergy of all matter in the universe and and monsters. The book is littered with far are some limits to our ability to achieve the negative energy of the gravitational too many anonymous and quasi-anony- the sort of unification we’ve long mous reports, often culled from another force associated with that matter can dreamed of. n book, Weird New Jersey by Mark Moran and precisely balance so that the total uni- Mark Sceurman: “Mike V. recounts his expe- verse has zero combined energy. How- rience…”; “Another report from an eyewit- Justin Trottieris the national executive director of ness who prefers to remain anonymous…”; ever, on the scale of anything less than the Center for Inquiry in Canada and a contributor “Two witnesses who call themselves ‘MS’ an entire universe, such as that of plan- to the National Post and the Michael Coren Show and ‘RS’ recalled a sighting…” and so on. ets or stars, the negative energy of on CTS TV. He was the chief spokesperson for the Who are these people? Do they even exist? gravity is far too small compared to the Canadian Atheist Bus Campaign, and he has spo- Presumably so, but good research de- positive energy of matter, and hence ken on atheism, skepticism, and free inquiry on spontaneous creation of bodies within all major Canadian television networks.

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mands—and cryptozoology deserves—far ‘Unexplained’ Cases—Only If more than brief anecdotes from anony- mous eyewitnesses. One drawback of the You Ignore All Explanations book (especially for anyone wishing to use it as a resource) is the lack of references or even an index. Especially in a book with ROBERT SHEAFFER chapters that are often collections of vari- ous reports on various monsters, an index would have been invaluable. With its limita- hile UFO believers have held for UFOs: Generals, tions in mind, the book is definitely worth a Wdecades that “disclosure” is just Pilots, and Government look for cryptozoology enthusiasts. around the corner, the modern disclo- Officials Go on the sure movement is savvy enough to re- Record alize that “disclosure” needs a little By Leslie Kean. THE OTHER SIDE: A Teen’s Guide to Ghost push. On May 9, 2001, Steven Greer’s Harmony Books, Hunting and the Paranormal. Marley Gib- Disclosure Project held a press confer- New York, 2010. ISBN: son, Patrick Burns, and Dave Schrader. Houghton Mifflin, New York. 2010. 112 pp. ence at the National Press Club in 978-0-307-71684-2. Paperback, $10.99. A recent addition to the Washington, D.C., featuring twenty 335 pp. Hardcover, explosion of ghost books people who have made claims of a $25.99. aimed at teens, The Other widespread government conspiracy to Side deems itself a practi- conceal the existence of extraterrestrial fesses (a bit disingenuously) to be ag- cal guide to visitors. After a brief flurry of sensa- nostic on the question of whether they and the paranormal. Often are extraterrestrial. the book’s authors are re- tionalist news reports, the mainstream freshingly candid about news media simply ignored what Greer Of the COMETA report, she says: the ambiguous nature of paranormal inves- and his pals had to say, and nobody fol- “All conventional explanations of some- tigation in general and ghost hunting specif- lowed through on it. The Disclosure thing natural or man-made had been ically. “No one is a paranormal expert,” they Project folks expected that enterprising eliminated by the authors and their asso- note in the introduction. “There are a multi- news reporters would follow up on their ciated teams of experts, and yet these ob- tude of paranormal investigators with differ- jects were observed at close range by pi- ing philosophies on how to investigate. No leads, blowing the whole supposed gov- one can truly say that his or her methods ernment UFO conspiracy sky-high lots, tracked on radar, and officially are better than anyone else’s. Not even we through diligent investigation. How- photographed.” Really? Among the CO - can.” (I would argue that those investigative ever, it didn’t happen, because no expe- META cases supposedly having no pos- methods that actually solve mysteries are rienced reporter believed there was any- sible explanation was one at Laken heath, self-evidently better than others.) The book United Kingdom, in 1956—but this case covers a variety of claims for ghosts, rang- thing in the UFO conspiracy claims ing from orbs and EVPs (electronic voice worth following up on. is the subject of Chapter 21 of the 1974 phenomena, supposed ghost voices) to Enter Leslie Kean (pronounced book UFOs Explained (Random House) safety during investigations. The authors, “Kane”), a reporter for Public Broad - by the famous UFO skeptic and late all well-known personalities in the ghost- casting Service station KPFA in Berke- CSICOP fellow Philip J. Klass. What hunting world, actually provide some pretty sensible advice, for example knowing your ley, California, widely known as the rad- does Kean say about Klass’s demolishing surroundings, seeking permission to inves- ical radio voice of the Peoples’ Republic of the “evidence” presented? Nothing. tigate a supposedly haunted location, and of Berkeley. Leslie Kean is the reporter Klass’s name does not appear in the understanding how your equipment works. I the Disclosure Project has been waiting book’s index. Kean writes a chapter on was pleasantly surprised to find other bits for. She says her initiation into the ranks “The Roots of UFO Debunking in of investigative wisdom, including not wear- of UFO proponents occurred in 1999 America,” but she does not even mention ing reflective clothing, shiny jewelry, or hard-soled shoes—all of which can create when she was given a copy of a French Klass, the late astronomer Donald Men- false-positive “ghost evidence.” Other parts UFO report called COMETA, which is zel, or CSICOP or anyone associated of the book (e.g., casting spells to protect usually described as a report commis- with it. To her, it’s all the fault of the gov- from evil spirits) keep the woo-detecting sioned by defense officials but was in ernment: the United States Air Force needle pinned firmly on the B.S. side. The fact written by a private group. Like (USAF) and especially the once-secret authors (who call themselves “skeptics”) are clearly operating on a different set of 1953 Robertson Panel of the Cen tral In- Bentham upon reading Hume, the principles and assumptions than CSI-affili- “scales fell from [her] eyes,” and she telligence Agency. ated investigators do. The Other Side is defi- suddenly realized the reality of UFOs as Another COMETA “unexplained” nitely a mixed bag, but it’s somewhat more unknown flying vehicles. She has no event is the RB-47 case of 1957. That skeptical than one might expect and is use- doubts whatsoever that the government case fills Chapters 19 and 20 of Klass’s ful as a primer in understanding ghost in- vestigation from a “believer’s” perspective. is hiding something really big from us 1974 book. Kean tells us that Jimmy concerning UFOs, although she pro- Carter “had his own UFO sighting in — Benjamin Radford

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1969, before he became governor of in the sky. Soon reports of UFOs were to a star, but bigger and brighter.” This Georgia.” What she does not tell her coming in from all over the region. was almost certainly Jupiter. The object readers is that it has been known for Many of the UFOs were reported as tri- allegedly induced failures in the air- over thirty years that Carter’s “UFO” angular, and it was widely assumed that craft’s electronics. This case, also a was in the same position as Venus (see the U.S. was testing some kind of secret COMETA “unexplained,” is the sub- my analysis of the Carter sighting in aircraft—over Belgium! Jets were sent ject of Chapter 11 of Klass’s 1983 book Chapter 2 of my UFO Sightings: The up in pursuit, but no solid radar or visual UFOs: The Public Deceived (Prome theus Evidence [Prometheus Books, 1998]). contacts were established. In fact, despite Books). Klass, an authority on avionics Kean also likes a list compiled by an- widespread sightings, by the time the (“aviation electronics”—in deed he is other French UFOlogist, Domi nique Belgian UFO craze was over, the only credited with coining the term), de- Weinstein, consisting of 1,305 “cases for provided “evidence” was a single blurred scribed known issues with the F-4’s which adequate data is available to cat- color image. The photo unfortunately avionics that could likely cause the egorize the [objects] as unknowns.” shows nothing in the background that problems Jafari reported. UFO skeptic and CSI fellow James can be used for analysis. A second similar case from 1980 is Oberg glanced at that list and quickly Kean is sensitive to the criticism that described in the chapter “Close Com - pulled out ten cases that he knew were there ought to have been much more bat with a UFO,” written by Comman - caused by Russian space launches (see photographic evidence, given so many dante Oscar Santa Maria Huertas of Oberg’s “UFO Book Based on Ques - sightings. She lamely suggests that the Peruvian Air Force (Ret.). Neither tionable Foundation” at www.msnbc. “twenty years ago, cell phones and rela- Kean nor any of her contributors evince msn.com/id/38852385). tively inexpensive, consumer-level dig- any familiarity with the classic 1948 There seems to be a pattern here. It’s ital and video cameras were not yet in Lieutenant George F. Gorman “UFO easy to tout UFO cases as having no use” (true, but we had plenty of film dogfight” documented in USAF Proj- conventional explanation as long as you cameras) and also that the dearth of ect Blue Book files, in which this North completely ignore everything that’s photos “was likely due to the effect of Dakota Air National Guard pilot ap- been written to the contrary. Surely even infrared light around the UFO, which parently played cat-and-mouse with a radical Berkeley reporters must actually can cause even such an object to disap- lighted weather balloon known to have investigate controversial claims—and pear altogether in a photograph,” which been launched nearby ten minutes ear- sometimes even interview the token if true suggests that burglars can disap- lier (in Donald Menzel and Lyle G. Republican to get an opposing view— pear from surveillance cameras by car- Boyd, The World of Flying Saucers, Dou- even when they already “know for sure” rying an infrared light. She ignores a bleday, 1963). There is no reason to sus- what the answer is. I cannot imagine skeptical analysis showing that the po- pect that the “UFO dogfights” in Iran what caused Citizen Kean to forget her licemen’s original UFO was reported in and Peru were very different. professional training and become an in- the same position as Venus, that some of Another of Kean’s big cases took nocent lamb in accepting pro-UFO the early Belgian sightings were from a place in Rendlesham, United Kingdom, claims, but clearly she is the reporter light show at a disco, and that the sole in 1980. This case is sometimes called whom UFO proponents have been color photo could easily be duplicated the “British Roswell,” although the in- waiting for, the Chosen One who will using cards and spotlights, as illustrated cident is a claimed landing, not a crash, lead from the wilderness of in Wim Van Utrecht’s analysis “The Bel- near a USAF base in Britain. The isolation and despair into the media gian 1989–1990 UFO Wave” in UFOs British skeptic Ian Ridpath has a web- spotlight. She calls upon the U.S. gov- 1947–1997: From Arnold to the Abductees, site discussing the many problems with ernment to set up a new UFO agency— edited by Hilary Evans and Dennis Stacy this case, which Kean ignores. Her con- it can be a small one, she reassures us— (Lon don: John Brown Publish ing, 1997). tributor, Sergeant James Penniston, to monitor, collect, and investigate UFO And even if Kean didn’t know of Van USAF (Ret.), displays his notebook reports. Utrecht’s skeptical research, de Brower with drawings supposedly made during Kean invited several contributors to certainly did, because he was interviewed the incident, while Colonel Charles I. write chapters describing UFO inci- by Van Utrecht. Halt, USAF (Ret.), suggests that Air dents they had some involvement in. Another contributor is the retired Force Office of Special Investigations She begins with the chapter “Majestic Iranian General Parviz Jafari, who de - personnel secretly came onto the base Craft with Powerful Beaming Spot- scribes his own “UFO dogfight” expe- and interrogated witnesses, covertly lights,” concerning the famous Belgian rience in chasing a supposed UFO over using sodium pentothal to brainwash UFO wave of 1989, as written by Major the skies of Teheran in 1976 (back them and erase their memories. Kean General Wilfred de Brower of the Bel- when Iran was a U.S. ally). Jafari tells of doesn’t tell us that Penniston’s notebook gian Air Force (Ret.). It started with chasing—in an American-built F-4— was never seen publicly until twenty- two policemen reporting a bright light an unknown object that looked “similar three years after the incident, suggest-

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ing its authenticity is very dubious. pilots’ sightings, which she describes as pilots appear to make relatively poor Penniston also has elsewhere stated his “a unique window into the unknown.” witnesses.” Kean actually quotes from belief that the beings that landed in She writes that pilots “represent the other pages of that book but makes ab- Rendlesham Forest were our distant world’s most experienced and best- solutely no mention of Hynek’s low descendants returning to obtain ge- trained observers of everything that opinion of pilots’ sightings. This is per- netic material to keep their ailing flies . . . these unique circumstances po- haps the clearest example of Kean’s species alive: “They are time travellers. tentially transform any jet aircraft into habit of totally ignoring everything in They are us.” As for Halt, his credibil- a specialized flying laboratory for the the UFO literature that disagrees with ity on the case has suffered greatly, es- study of rare anomalous phenomena.” her beliefs. n pecially considering his recent affidavit However, J. Allen Hynek, the late Proj- that flatly contradicts many of his origi- ect Blue Book consultant whom Kean Robert Sheaffer, a Committee for Skeptical In- nal statements (see Ian Ridpath’s 2010 repeatedly cites as a respected UFO quiry fellow and longtime SKEPTICAL INQUIRER con- tributing editor and columnist, is one of the article “The Rendlesham Forest UFO authority, came to exactly the op posite world’s leading UFO debunkers. He is author of Case,” available at www.ianridpath. conclusion. On page 271 of his 1977 UFO Sightings: The Evidence (Prometheus com/ufo/rendlesham.htm). book The Hynek UFO Report, he wrote, Books, 1998). His new blog is online at Kean is enormously impressed by “Surprisingly, commercial and military www.BadUFOs.com.

Padre Pio: Scandals of a Saint JOE NICKELL

rom humble beginnings in the town Fof Pietrelcina, Italy, Francesco For - Padre Pio: Miracles and Politics in a Secular Age gione (1887–1968) went on to become By Sergio Luzzatto. Metropolitan Books, Italy’s most venerated saint of the twen- Henry Holt and Company, New York, 2010. ty-first century, known popularly as ISBN: 978-0-8050-8905-9. 384 pp. Hardcover, $30. Padre (“Father”) Pio (“Pious”). His tomb draws more pilgrims than Lourdes or any other Catholic shrine. Yet the full, true story of this purported miracle worker’s rise to sainthood has long priest was suddenly, he claimed, inflicted Real-Life X-Files) to merely discolored needed to be told, and Sergio Luzzatto with the stigmata—bleeding so profusely, skin that appeared to have been irritated tells it in his Padre Pio: Miracles and Pol- he alleged, that he feared he would bleed by the application of a caustic substance. . (First published in itics in a Secular Age to death. Indeed, a bottle of carbolic acid was once 2007, this is a new English translation.) In fact, notwithstanding the claims in discovered in the friar’s cell, and Luzzatto As the book’s subtitle suggests, Luzzatto uncritical biographies, Pio’s stigmata de- cites letters from Padre Pio in which Pio details Pio’s fascist (he was reportedly an volved—from bleeding wounds that requests that carbolic acid, and at another admirer of Musso lini) and other connec- could easily have been self-inflicted (like time a caustic alkaloid, be secretly deliv- tions, although in this re view I concen- those of many fake stigmatists before and ered to him. Eventually Pio began wear- trate on the allegedly paranormal aspects after, as I described in my 2001 book ing fingerless gloves, supposedly to cover of Pio’s life. Pio is best known for his stigmata— the supposedly supernaturally received wounds resembling the wounds of While praying before the chapel’s crucifix, Jesus—which he first exhibited in the au- tumn of 1918 when the trauma of World the newly ordained priest was suddenly, War I caused many to hope for supernat- he claimed, inflicted with the stigmata— ural intervention. Sud denly, at a Ca- puchin monastery in southern Italy, an bleeding so profusely, he alleged, that he alter Christus (living figure of Christ) was manifest. While praying before the feared he would bleed to death. chapel’s crucifix, the newly ordained

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his stigmata out of pious humility; how- had he caused a deaf-mute girl to regain the absence of stigmata might cause a ever, to me, the practice seems instead a her speech. He also did not heal a faulty rush to judgment. Carmelo shrewd move to eliminate the need to hunchback so the man could walk away therefore had Padre Pio’s hands and continually self-inflict wounds. “at least partly made straight.” Not a sin- feet covered, as if the covering still con- Nor were the fake stigmata the friar’s gle one of Padre Pio’s miracles was gen- cealed his allegedly holy gift. And so only deception. Years before, Pio had uine, the investigator determined. the deception continued. written numerous letters to his spiritual Nevertheless, Padre Pio’s reputation In 2002, the late friar was canonized directors describing his mystical experi- grew unabated, and ultimately “miracles” Saint Pio of Pietrelcina—not for the ences; however, it is now known that he would be found to serve as the basis for stigmata he was so famous for but for copied these words verbatim from the his canonization. A once-hostile Vatican his healings that were, with due illogic, had eventually become conciliatory to- writings of stigmatic Gemma Galgani assumed miraculous because they were (1878–1903) without acknowledging ward him and responsive to popular said to be inexplicable. And when his they were hers. And that is not all: Pio demand—this despite evidence that remains were exhumed for display forty attempted to divert suspicion from his suggested sexual misconduct on behalf years after his death, those hoping his plagiarism by asking for help in procur- of the adored padre and the private body would be found incorrupt (a sup- ing copies of Gal gani’s books—saying he opinion of Pope John XXIII (recorded in would very much like to read them! his daybook) that “P.P. has shown himself posed sign of sanctity; see my Relics of As to miracles attributed to Pio, the to be a straw idol.” the Christ, University Press of Ken tucky, report of a Vatican emissary in 1919 By the time of his death in 1968, 2007), or that it would still exhibit the cited the wildest claims then circulating Pio’s stigmata had disappeared, but that stigmata, were disappointed. The em - among an uneducated populace. The was effectively remedied in death. Al- balmed corpse had deteriorated suffi- emissary characterized as fantasy the though there was no need to cover his ciently that it re quired a silicon mask— story of a church bell that fragmented hands and feet—and indeed Capuchin complete with bushy eyebrows and when Pio’s confreres were wronged by a rule forbids the wearing of socks—Pio’s beard—fashioned by a London wax superior. Likewise, it was not true that “father guardian,” Father Carmelo of museum. Of the supposedly supernat- Pio instantly cured a man of a limp; nor San Giovanni in Galdo, worried that ural wounds there was not a trace. n Debunking the Trauma Myth BENJAMIN RADFORD

friend of mine once told me about A something that had happened to The Trauma Myth: The Truth About the Sexual her in her early teens. An adult friend Abuse of Children—and Its Aftermath of her parents had nonviolently (but By Susan A. Clancy. Basic Books, quite clearly) sexually abused her. I was New York, 2010. ISBN: 978-0-465-01688-4. of course very sympathetic and told her 256 pp. Hardcover, $25. she didn’t need to tell me any more than she was comfortable with. I certainly didn’t want the relating of the experi- ence to trigger emotional trauma. traumatic) experiences. book The Trauma Myth: The Truth Instead, she more or less shrugged Her reaction seemed strange to me: About the Sexual Abuse of Children—and the experience off. She did not downplay it was at odds with both what I’d learned Its Aftermath. Clancy, a research psy- her abuse; she was merely ambivalent in my undergraduate psychology courses chologist, is best known to skeptics as about it. She related the event as a and the common conception about the author of the 2007 book Abducted: How slightly embarrassing and uncomfortable nature of sexual abuse. But I was not People Come to Believe They Were Kid- experience that left no physical in juries about to tell her how to feel or impose napped by Aliens, which provides a fasci- at the time and no apparent emotional my own interpretations on her; I was in nating look at the psychology of ab - trauma afterward. She was not okay with no position to judge or question her re- duction experiences. This time Clancy what happened to her, but the experi- action to her own experience. turns her investigative acumen to child ence didn’t scar her for life or leave deep I didn’t really know what to make of sexual abuse (CSA). emotional wounds. For her it was just my friend’s experience and her feelings The book is divided into five chap- one of life’s many unpleasant (but not about it until I read Susan Clancy’s new ters: “What Was It Like When It Hap-

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pened?”; “The Truth About Sexual model were unable to find good evi- sent only a very narrow subset of CSA Abuse”; “The Politics of Sexual Abuse”; dence of their claims, they had a ready- experiences and victims. This traumatic “Why the Trauma Myth Damages Vic- made (albeit pseudoscientific) expla n - sort of abuse was not typical of Clancy’s tims”; and “How the Trauma Myth Si- ation: the traumatic memories had been subjects—or of my friend. One result is lences Victims.” Each chapter flows repressed. that most victims of sexual abuse do not clearly and logically into the next, bring- Especially on a topic as emotionally see their experiences represented or val- ing the reader along a captivating journey and politically charged as CSA, it’s easy idated in the culture, which may even through the theory, research, and politics to misread and misunderstand Clancy’s lead to some abuse cases not being re- of CSA. points. Her argument is nuanced and ported. Victims may see depictions of Clancy calls for a reevaluation of the easily mischaracterized. She has been at- forcible or violent abuse and assume that dominant framework with which CSA tacked and vilified, not only by believers it is typical—and because they did not has been interpreted and studied for in repressed memory but by other re- experience anything like that, they may decades. The “trauma model,” which is searchers who blithely assume—without come to believe that they were not in widely used both in pop culture and offering better evidence of their own— fact abused. among psychologists, holds that such that her findings cannot be correct. As Clancy notes, “The reason truth abuse is invariably traumatic for the Though Clancy is among the first to matters—the reason advocacy is in fact child at the time of the abuse. write publicly about this, she is not alone best based on truth—is that our lies Clancy does an admirable job of in her findings; indeed, she draws upon about sexual abuse are not helping vic- combining personal stories and hard a wealth of published studies that sup- tims. ... Based on what victims have to data. As a scientist, she realizes that port her conclusions. Clancy’s intellectual say, professionals in the mental health stories and anecdotes carry only so rigor is remarkable, and the book con- field have not made much progress for much weight. Clancy describes the re- tains meticulous reference lists and notes. them” (108). We cannot find answers if sults of her research: “Almost every vic- Clancy describes the role that femi- we do not ask the right questions. If the tim I spoke with reported that their nists played in creating and perpetuat- premises and assumptions underlying childhood sexual experiences had dam- ing the trauma myth: “How to explain our understanding of sexual abuse are aged them. ... Most reported multiple the fact that victims themselves said flawed, then we cannot hope to find ef- adverse effects from the abuse” (p. 22). that they rarely resisted the abuse, they fective solutions to prevent such abuse. However, Clancy states, “The second often participated, and that most chose For millennia, illnesses were thought to commonality between the victims I did not to report what happened and kept be the result of an imbalance of bodily not expect. Whatever was causing the silent about their experiences? The fem- humors (bile, blood, etc.); to correct those psychological and cognitive damage inist solution was to conceptualize sex- imbalances, used knives and these victims reported had nothing to ual abuse as a violent crime, to treat sex- leeches to drain excess humors. At the do with trauma; very few victims re- ual abuse the same way they treated time, such treatment was perfectly logical ported any fear, shock, force, or vio- rape” (91). This profound misunder- and rational, based upon a (mis)under- lence at the time the abuse occurred” standing—this trauma myth driven by standing of the problem. Perhaps decades (22). In fact, in the final analysis, “Less politics instead of science, social agendas from now, psychologists will shake their than 10 percent of the participants re- instead of evidence—would eventually heads in dismay at why it took so long to ported experiencing their abuse as cause significant harm to the very vic- bring science and evidence to the treat- traumatic, terrifying, overwhelming, tims feminists were trying to protect. ment of CSA. life-threatening, or shocking at the Clancy illustrates the vast gulf be- The Trauma Myth is a brave, in - time it happened” (37). tween the public’s image of CSA (rooted sightful, and important book with im- Clancy takes repeated pains to em- in the trauma model) and reality. “Vir- plications far beyond psychology. It is phasize that she “never once questioned tually every commentator shares the also a fascinating study of how politics whether sexual abuse hurts victims . . .” view that the sexual abuse was horrific and political correctness can contami- (78). Instead, “the point of [her] re- when it happened, and, as a conse- nate good science. Clancy has shown search was not to minimize the harm quence, profoundly damaging to the vic- that the emperor may have no clothes— abuse causes but to question our as- tim. Not surprisingly, when we read and the belief that he does is hurting real sumptions about what the cause of the about sexual abuse in the news . . . it is victims. It is possible that people like my harm really is” (79). An event does not almost always in the context of lurid, friend, and those who Clancy found in need to be physically or psychologically sensational stories having to do with her research, are rare exceptions in CSA. traumatic at the time to cause harm subjects” such as priests molesting choir Even if that is true, their experiences later on—the real harm is manifested boys, To Catch a Predator-type Internet are no less valid or worthy of study. All in depression, mistrust, and other issues. stalkers, and so on. Yet, Clancy shows, victims deserve good science and accu- When some defenders of the trauma these cultural scripts describe and repre- rate answers. n

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[INBOX

tor (I don’t like the term ghost and external EMF sources (not hunter for multiple reasons) of to mention their inevitable re- fourteen years and am happy to flections) can add up to a busy see such a well-written article night of ghost hunting in any lo- from the hardcore skeptical cation, aided by the fact that solar side. Unfortunately, I doubt interference doesn’t mask the those who need to read it ever weaker emissions as it does in will! It’s so frustrating to see a daylight. Radio signals from out- lack of critical thinking in this side the “haunted” structure, in- field, but what’s even more per- cluding the nearest wi-fi hotspot plexing is talking to many other or the baby monitor next door, investigators who feel the same could be available for misinter- way but do nothing to change pretation as a local spirit. their methods or help educate Ron Smith others. Alpine, Texas I have written a blog post about my positive reaction to your article and given full credit Frankenstein to Radford and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. It’s available at http:// In his article “Frankenstein Was tiny.cc/h67hg. Not a Doctor” (SI, Novem- Brian D. Parsons ber/December 2010), Ron Wat - Ohio Paranormal Investi- kins states that in the 1931 gation Network movie, Dr. Frankenstein tells [email protected] the monster to “Take care, Herr Frankenstein, take care!” Actu - ally, in the scene when Dr. I very much enjoyed reading Frank enstein first introduces “Ghost-Hunting Mistakes,” and the monster to sunlight, it is Dr. I’d like to add a few thoughts of Waldman (who is off-screen) my own. who tells Dr. Frankenstein to Ghost-Hunters’ the mistakes and then skewered Concerning electronic voice take care, as the latter inches Mistakes them with hilariously funny— phenomena (EVPs), it’s interest- closer to the monster when it but off-putting—in sults. While ing to me that a hundred-dollar reaches up to the sunlight. I want to commend Benjamin his piece might have been fun- handheld digital recorder can Other than this error, the Radford for the restraint he nier, it would have been ignored capture these whispering“voices,” article is interesting and well showed in his dismantling by any of the show’s believers which the ghost hunters later an- written. who dared read it. Although of ghost-hunting techniques alyze with computer software. Thomas DeZego most of them will likely not read (“Ghost-Hunting Mistakes,” SI, Meanwhile, the show’s sound Richmond, Virginia November/ Decem ber 2010). it anyway, those who do have a man, standing only a few feet The self-proclaimed “skep- chance to hear what he’s actually away at the time, apparently saying because they won’t go in- tics” at T.A.P.S., The Atlantic records none with his thousands In the November/December stantly on the defensive. Paranormal Society, declare an of dollars’ worth of sophisticated, 2010 SI, both Ron Watkins’s To this end, Radford’s efforts allegiance to “science,” but their professional-grade audio-record- article “Franken stein Was Not a help restore skepticism and science methodology is so staggeringly ing equipment. Doctor” and Massimo Poli- to their original, higher mean- inane that they are redefining Having made a living for the doro’s column “How to Make a ings. I only hope his latest book the terms skepticism and science past thirty-one years in the com- Mon ster! The Legend of Cre- on the subject assumes this same in the public’s mind to mean munications industry, it’s not sur- ating Artificial Life: From the tone. much less than they do. The prising to me that ghost hunters Golem to Pinocchio” reference group’s sole contribution is to Ross Bonander find electromagnetic field Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein. etymology: their entire inves- Austin, Texas (EMF) readings everywhere they Readers should know that the tigative schtick is so absurd that look. Each radio transmission is charming town of Franken stein it redefines ghostwriting to in- by definition an electromagnetic lies a pleasant drive west from clude the phenomenon wherein I read Benjamin Radford’s article source, and these investigators Heidelberg. Sited high on a a writer’s subject is so full of on “Ghost-Hunting Mistakes” in bring a variety of EMF devices crag overlooking the town, the holes that his critique pretty the special monster issue of SI, with them. Indiscriminate use of ruins of Castle Franken stein oc- much writes itself. and I want to applaud and thank cell phones, wireless cameras, cupy a setting even more im- In addressing this orgy of him for a well-balanced and handheld two-way radios, wire- pressive than the one depicted pseudoscience, Radford could well-written article full of facts less microphones, infrared LEDs in the films: a small automated have done what other critics and educated observations. I am in night-vision cameras, as well weather station sits on the have: he could have illustrated a veteran paranormal investiga- as the expected local internal highest point of the ruins, and,

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LETTERS TO THE EDITOR]

yes, it does include a lightning Mind Reader (amuse. & In the SI Special Report, “An More than any other cause, I rod. Interestingly, insofar as I rec.); Palmist (amuse. & rec.); Open Letter in Defense of Rea- think you have to assign blame to could discover while walking Tea-Leaf Reader (amuse. & son,” author Tomasz Witkow ski’s the school systems and the peo- the length of the town, there is rec.). reasoning is quite well articu- ple who end up teaching our not a single shop that sells so Astrologer is defined matter- lated. I particularly liked his children. Colleges of Education much as a postcard related to of-factly: point that certain “professions”— attract students with the lowest the book or films. Unlike the just as clearly represented among SAT examination results, and tourist trade in Romania, which ASTROLOGER (amuse. the subject population as were they become the “science educa- & rec.) Prepares and ana- caters to fans of Dracula, the fortune-tellers, for example— lyzes horoscope to advise tors.” We would have better local burghers of Frankenstein clients regarding future were omitted from the survey. teachers if we recruited more stu- have not turned the name of trends and events: Prepares The article mentioned, among dents with science degrees. The their community into a cottage horoscope by computing others, racketeer and prostitute. best science teachers I ever had industry. position of planets, their re- I would like to point out, were my college professors, not lationship to each other and however, that there was a whole Alan Dean Foster one of whom had ever sat to zodiacal signs, based on classification of occupations Prescott, Arizona through an education course. factors, such as time and that were undoubtedly men- place subject was born. An- tioned in the Polish classifica- Marilyn Williams Finke alyzes horoscope chart to tion of occupations that would [email protected] In Defense of Reason advise client, such as person or company, regarding con- present just as great a problem as the one mentioned by Mr. The November/December 2010 ditions which lie ahead, Human beings evolved from less course of action to follow, Witkowski: “What if, for exam- issue of the SKEPTICAL IN- and probability of success or ple, the Polish Supreme Court advanced life-forms? Who’s to QUIRER, with a spooky cover and failure of that action. were to allow establishing a say what’s “advanced”? Some articles on ghosts and monsters, forensic expert in the area of extremophiles—who might re- arrived in the mail in late Octo- Both fortune-teller and as- fortune-telling, astrology, bio- semble our ancestors!—thrive at ber just in time for Halloween. Is are placed in the cate- trologer energy therapy, or similar spe- temperatures of over 70°C. We this a coincidence or a result of gory of Amusement and Re - cialization on the same grounds can’t do that. This isn’t the first ? creation, which suggests that as other forensic experts?” I am time this issue has come up, and In the issue’s “An Open Let- they should not be taken too se- referring to the classification of pollsters ought to phrase their ter in Defense of Reason,” riously. James Randi would be religious officials, such as min- questions differently if they Tomasz Witkowski criticizes the pleased that magician is also ister, priest, rabbi, etc. I assume want to accurately gauge the ac- Polish minister of labor for list- considered an occupation: there is some such classification ceptance of evolution. ing fortune-teller as an occupation or classifications in the Polish along with an uncritical descrip- “MAGICIAN (amuse. & Howard J. Wilk government’s document. tion of it. He provides the labor rec.) Performs original and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania stock tricks of illusion and Certainly an opinion ex- minister’s reply but still expresses sleight of hand to entertain pressed in a Polish court by one concern that such a listing will and mystify audience, using of these “holy men” is subject to legitimize fortune-tellers, dow - The Misunderstood props, such as illusion boxes, the same problems as the opin- sers, and astrologers and could Placebo scarf, cards, rabbit, and jew- ions of clairvoyants. I only point logically lead to the same for elry. ...” this out as perhaps an additional criminal professions, such as Steven Novella may indeed be Medium is not listed as an oc- problem with the construction of prostitute, drug dealer, and con- knowledgeable, but he is a bit the Polish gov ern ment’s classifi- tract thug. cupation. Neither ghost hunter disingenuous in his column cation that Mr. Witkowski per- Witkowski’s report leads one nor ghostwriter are listed as occu- “The Poor, Misunderstood haps saw but did not mention. to wonder how the U.S. Depart- pations, but poet is listed. Dowser Placebo” in the November/De- ment of Labor treats such occu- is not listed, nor is cosmologist or Donald Havis cember 2010 issue. He relegates pations. Fortunately, the Dic - skeptic; perhaps because so few San Mateo, California placebos to their role in clinical tionary of Occupational Titles can earn a living at them. Illegal trials, but of course placebos (DOT), published by the U.S. jobs such as prostitute and drug have been around since the Department of Labor, is now dealer are probably unlisted be- Tri-Country dawn of medicine. In fact, up available online. cause most of their practitioners Evolution Poll until the mid-twentieth century, Fortune-teller is defined with “take the Fifth.” placebos were likely the most a touch of skepticism: If one wants to have fun I was truly depressed by the re- effective remedies in a doctor’s sults of the evolution poll kit. Before antibiotics came on PSYCHIC READER (amuse. looking deeper into what the & rec.) Entertains client or au- U.S. Department of Labor does (News and Comment, SI, No- the scene in the 1930s, there dience by professing to tell past, and does not define as an occu- vember/December 2010). Only were few effective remedies for present, or future events through pation, search online for “Dic- 35 percent of people in the disease, and doctors depended extraordinary spiritual insight or tionary of Occupa tional Titles” United States believe that on their own calming presence by perceiving another’s and then search for any occupa- human beings evolved from less and a variety of questionable or thoughts. Desig nated according advanced life-forms over mil- worthless pills and nostrums to to specialty or medium used as tions of interest. Card Reader (amuse. & rec.); lions of years—and even worse, provide the patient with a feel- Crystal Gazer (amuse. & rec.); David W. Briggs in my native South, only 27 ing that he or she was being Fortune Teller (amuse. & rec.); Marion, Massachusetts percent believe it. treated. Then they relied on

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time and the quite marvelous hysterectomies, prostate re- A synopsis of a paper in the treatment is therefore unnecessary healing power of the human movals, and coronary-bypass October 19 Annals of Internal and arguably unethical; further- body to do the rest. It wasn’t a surgeries. The truth is that pa- Medicine appears on Science more, the lack of specific efficacy whole lot different than a tients often have symptoms that Daily (see www.sciencedaily. mitigates any need to speculate shaman shaking a rattle and are ambiguous or for which com/rleases/2010/10/10101817 about possible mechanisms of the doing the spiritual two-step to there is no recognized effica- 4335.htm). The purpose of the acupuncture itself. chase away demons. They were cious treatment. Doctors can’t article is to see if paper authors James Reagan brings up an selling belief, and belief works. send these patients away with have published the contents of interesting study that was pub- It calms the patient, reducing nothing, so they prescribe a placebo pills or potions used in lished after I had submitted my the fear and the stress-related placebo treatment or perform a their studies. The authors of the article, but I did write about it at influx of cortisol, adrenaline, placebo procedure and trust October paper contend that http://theness.com/neurologica- and noradrenaline, which in- that the power of the white coat there is no placebo that is not blog/?p=2415. I agree that trans- hibit the . It im- and time will help the patient physiologically active. There- parency in clinical trial methods is proves the body’s ability to use recover. When it comes to fore, the makeup is very impor- essential, and the authors point to its innate self-healing power. hocus-pocus, doctors can match tant to know if it can affect the the need to more uniformly disclose The truth is that doctors still any shaman. And when they trial results significantly. Fewer precise placebo contents. depend on the placebo effect. latch onto a high-visibility ap- than 10 percent of papers re- They turned penicillin and other parent panacea—like penicillin viewed listed placebo ingredi- antibiotics into placebos by treat- was in the ’30s or statins are ents. Great Promulgations ing them as panaceas and pre- today—they don’t hesitate to James Reagan scribing them for every sort of use it for its placebo effect. I read Joe Nickell’s “Investiga- Cary, North Carolina patient complaint, including viral tive Files” column “The True Robert Veitch diseases for which they could Cross: Chaucer, Calvin, and the Minneapolis, Minnesota Steven Novella, MD, replies: have no effect. Many a person Relic Mongers” (November/Dec - has collected an antibiotic pre- While I agree with many of the ember 2010) with interest and scription for a troublesome rhi- facts to which Mr. Veitch refers, he enjoyment. I was enlightened by Dr. Steven novirus. The over-prescribing of is not actually responding to any- One quibble: Constantine the Novella’s dissection of the con- antibiotics is so prevalent that thing I wrote in my article. Prior Great (274–337) did not make stituent parts of the placebo ef- many pathogenic microorgan- to science-based medicine, medical “. . . Christianity the Roman Em- fect, although I must confess I isms have evolved to be multi - practice was indeed mostly placebo pire’s official religion . . .” (p. 20). gained no real insight into the resistant. The tendency of doc- medicine. Yet this did not add Constantine promulgated an nature of this strange phenome- tors to hand out prescriptions measurably to the human life ex - Edict of Toleration that did just non. And we were left with the with little regard to their efficacy pectancy, so it is hardly something that—stopped persecution and curious conclusion: “On close in- is precisely why pharmaceutical to be touted or yearned for. That tolerated Christianity as one spection, placebo effects are not companies include in their ad- some physicians today rely upon among other oriental and mys- a justification for substituting vertising, “Ask your doctor if placebo effects is true (although tery cults. hocus-pocus for real medicine.” XYZ is right for you.” They overstated by Veitch), but this is It was later, in the reign of Novella is careful to ac- know that doctors who will deny also not relevant to any point Theodosius the Great (379– knowledge “the real physiolog- a patient a drug request are few made in my article. The calming 395), that Christianity be came ical effects” of “nonspecific ben- and far between. and reassuring effects of the ther- the Roman Empire’s official re- efits,” such as surges of A great many medical treat- apeutic interaction are legitimate ligion. Thus, other religions and endorphins and increase in ments are basically placebos. parts of medical practice, but they beliefs were denied a right to elaboration of dopamine, either Arthroscopic surgery to repair are not sufficient in and of them- exist. of which may produce a salutary the meniscus was revealed to be selves to justify a specific interven- effect in treating a disease. John James Cahill “no better than a placebo” in a tion that does not itself carry spe- Does Novella contend that Alexandria, Virginia study released in 2008 (Alexan- cific efficacy. “warmth, attention, and confi- dra Kirkley et al., “A Ran - William Harvey misses the dence” do not have a physiologi- Joe Nickell replies: domized Trial of Arthroscopic point of my article. My objection to cal correlate? The mechanism of Surgery for Osteoarthritis of relying on placebo effects has noth- Point taken, but now it is I who action of many contemporary, al- the Knee,” New England Journal ing to do with whether or not we quibble: Constantine didn’t treat lopathic remedies describes of Medicine 359(11): 1097– understand mechanisms of action. Christianity as just one among merely epiphenomena for some 107). (This was actually the sec- Rather, the evidence shows that many religions. He famously con- and is simply unknown for many ond such study to deliver that much of what we measure as verted to Christianity; adopted the others. I believe that a 60 percent result; see Bruce Moseley et al., placebo effects is illusory and arti- Greek monogram for Christ as his salutary effect of “sham acupunc- “A Controlled Trial of Arthro- factual, and any real benefits are imperial standard, which was ture with enhanced interaction” scopic Sur gery for Osteoarthri- modest and subjective. Further he placed on his soldiers’ shields; went represents a remarkably effica- tis of the Knee,” New England misunderstands the notion of “ef- to battle with his brother-in-law cious result, and I would not dis- Journal of Medicine 347(2): 81– ficacy”—if acupuncture plus a to end the persecution of Chris- miss it lightly—even though we 88.) Yet these operations con- therapeutic interaction has the tians; and is recognized as being don’t understand it. tinue today. Low back surgery same effect as the therapeutic inter- instrumental in making Christi- is often simply a placebo. Some William Harvey action itself, then the acupuncture anity the West’s dominant reli- claim that is also true of many [email protected] isn’t adding any efficacy. The gion. While Constantine made

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Chris tianity semi-official, it was processions even featured elab- Massimo Polidoro replies: November/Decem ber 2010), indeed Theodosius whose com- orate floats on which robots notes that Jim Hansen’s fame as I thank Richard Carrier for his mand made it official. Thanks for acted the part of the god, and a climate scientist is ironic very interesting letter, and I’d like the correction. some even boasted displays of to thank Richard Bleiler for tak- “given Hansen’s midwestern robotic cars (although they ing the time to correct my dates. roots, his careful approach to probably were powered by men Living in Italy, I did not have a science, and his conservative, shy Mechanical Automatons concealed within). chance to locate the original novel, personality.” Go Way Back Actual industrial robots were so I got my information on those Perhaps it is ironic that a shy developed and used by the books from Wikipedia. That in- person became a famous climate Great piece by Massimo Poli- Greeks and Romans as well: not formation turned out to be wrong scientist, but I fail to see how the doro (“How to Make a Mon- only the water mill (which auto- (I have checked now, and the dates other factors enter into the irony ster! The Legend of Creating mated the grinding of grain) but have been corrected online as equation. I hope he is not sug- Artificial Life: From the Golem water-powered saws (for cutting well). As for the word android, I gesting that fame comes only to to Pinocchio,” SI, Novem - wood and stone), hammers (for only said “the first time it was those scientists who are extro- ber/December 2010), but there crushing ore), and other forms of used in a novel,” not the first time verted liberals with a careless is one slight error (on pp. 22– automation. it was used in anything at all. approach to science and who 23). Polidoro writes, “It was in Richard Carrier the Middle Ages that technol- hail from anywhere but the www.richardcarrier.info ogy allowed people to not only A Climate of Irony midwestern United States. imagine but to build the first David Morrison, in his review of Mark Phillippi mechanical automatons.” Massimo Polidoro writes: “In Sioux Falls, South Dakota This buys into a recent nar- three climate-science books (SI, ‘Sandman’ (1815), writer E.T.A. rative that the ancient world Hoffmann told the story of a lacked the technology of the love between a man and a me- Middle Ages, but that narrative chanical doll. The Steam Man of [FOR THE RECORD is entirely false. Actual robots the Prairies (1815), a dime novel were already being built and op- by Edward S. Ellis, is about a The affiliation for Kenneth L. Feder, author of the Encyclopedia of erated in the fourth century big mechanical steam man used Dubious Archaeology (New Books, January/February 2011), is BCE, and Aristotle (who uses to carry coaches across prairies,” Central Connecticut State University (not College). them as an analogy in On the and “Luis Senarens . . . in 1885 Motion of Animals) imagined * * * imagined the first mechanical the possibility of using robots to The mysterious light clusters over identified as balloons man activated by electricity in eliminate the need for slaves re leased from a teacher’s party (News and Comment, January/ his book Frank Reade and His and menial labor (Politics). Both February 2011) were seen October 13 (not 14), 2010. Also, regard- Electric Man. The following reports probably predate any ing the UFO investigated years earlier in Buffalo, New York, the sen- year, Frenchman Mathias Vil- Jewish legend of the golem. tence should have read: “We determined that those lights were liers de l’Isle-Adam first used Manuals on how to build caused by white latex balloons.” the word android in a novel.” actual robots were written at There are several significant least as early as the third cen- errors here. tury BCE (On Building Automa- Hoffmann’s “The Sandman” tons by Philo of Byzantium). is usually dated 1816 or 1817; it [FEEDBACK We even have one such manual, was first published in Nachstücke On Automata, by the Roman herausgegeben von dem Ver gasser The letters column is a forum on mat - engineer Hero of Alexandria der Fantasiestücke in Callots ters raised in previous issues. (from the first century CE), who Manier, the first volume of Letters should be no longer than said he was updating Philo’s which appeared in 1816. 225 words. Due to the volume of let- work. These robots did the Although it had received ters we receive, not all can be pub- same things medieval robots earlier publication, the work lished. Send letters as e-mail text did, acting out entire plays and generally considered to be the (not attachments) to letters@csicop. scenes (including not just per- first dime novel was the 1860 org. In the subject line, provide your forming dramatic encounters surname and informative identi fication, e.g.: “Smith Letter on Jones evolu- edition of Mrs. Ann Stephens’s but engaging in battles, working tion art icle.” In clude your name and ad dress at the end of the letter. You Malaeska, the Indian Wife of the hammers and saws, rigging and may also mail your letter to Letter to the Editor, 944 Deer Dr. NE, Albu- White Hunter. Edward S. Ellis’s rowing ships, flying through the querque, NM 87122, or fax it to 505-828-2080. The Steam Man of the Prairies air, lighting fires, opening and was not published until 1868. closing doors, and playing mu- Minimal research would sical instruments). They were show Polidoro that the word programmed using a system of android had been used—in cogs, lines, and wheels, which English—in 1727. were set in motion (like a game of Mouse Trap) using a static Richard Bleiler Cause Page: Committee for Skeptical Inquiry/SKEPTICAL INQUIRER magazine weight. Some public religious [email protected] Fan Page: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER

Skeptical Inquirer | March / April 2011 65 SI Mar Apr 11 (PL) _SI new design masters 1/21/11 11:00 AM Page 66

[ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD

Ten Possible Positive Consequences of Global Warming HIDDEN MESSAGES by Dave Thomas

During this great flood we’ll know how to build arks; The following letters are a simple substitution 1 directions are in the Bible—in English. cipher. If R stands for L, it will do so everywhere. Solution is by trial and error. Hint: Look for pat- Ice caps will no longer block our view of terns in words; for example, the scrambled phrase the other side of the world. 2 “JRXJ JRQ” might represent “THAT THE.” Inner city neighborhoods will finally have access to 3 formerly exclusive beachfront property. PUZZLE Displaced polar bears will move south and become 4 domesticated, cuddly house pets! “BNI CHFE DITACH OCD BGXI GA AC There will be nothing left for future Titanics to crash into. 5 BNTB IUIDEBNGHW KCIAH’B Wanting nothing more to do with the “ugly” planet, NTVVIH TB CHQI.” 6 UFOs will pass Earth by. —TFYIDB IGHABIGH Drastic reduction of forests means Smokey the Bear can finally retire. 7 CLUE: O = F There will be an end of mundane, out-of-date species 8 and the creation of new mind-blowing mutations. PREVIOUS PUZZLE SOLUTION: “TIME IS A GREAT TEACHER, BUT UN- FORTUNATELY IT KILLS ALL ITS PUPILS.” Remaining humans will form a cult that worships a god — LOUIS HECTOR BERLIOZ by the name of Gore. SUPER-SECRET WORD: SCREAMING 9 (Instructions: www.nmsr.org/secretword.htm) Those predicting the apocalypse or “end of days” will no 10 longer sound like delusional crackpots. January/February 2011 Hidden Messages Puzzle Contest Winner: Stan Kurzban. This issue's prize is a one-year gift subscription to the SkEPTICAL InQUIRER. Skeptical Shutterbug Photo by Benjamin Radford Skeptical Shutterbug wants your humorous, skeptical snapshots! Please send only photos you have personally taken via e-mail to [email protected] or by postal mail to Benjamin Radford, The Last Laugh, P.O. Box 3016, Corrales, nM 87048. SI Mar Apr 11 (PL) _SI new design masters 1/21/11 11:00 AM Page 67

Scientific and Technical Consultants Gary Bauslaugh, Bryan Farha, I.W. Kelly, Daisie Radner, editor, Humanist Perspectives, prof. of behavioral studies in prof. of psychology, Univ. of Saskatch ewan, CENTERS FOR INQUIRY prof. of philosophy, SUNY Buffalo www.centerforinquiry.net/about/centers Victoria, B.C., Canada education, Oklahoma City Univ. Canada Robert H. Romer, Richard E. Berendzen, John F. Fischer, Richard H. Lange, prof. of physics, Amherst College TRANSNATIONAL astronomer, Washington, D.C. forensic analyst, Orlando, FL M.D., Mohawk Valley Physician 3965 Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228 Health Plan, Schenectady, NY Karl Sabbagh, Martin Bridgstock, Eileen Gambrill, journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England Tel.: (716) 636-4869 senior lecturer, School of Science, prof. of social welfare, Gerald A. Larue, AUSTIN Griffith Univ., Brisbane, Australia Univ. of California at Berkeley prof. of biblical history and Robert J. Samp, PO Box 202164, Austin, TX 78720-2164 archaeology, Univ. of So. California Richard Busch, Luis Alfonso Gámez, assistant prof. of education and Tel.: (512) 919-4115 magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, PA science journalist, Bilbao, Spain William M. London, medicine, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison CHICAGO California State Univ., Los Angeles Shawn Carlson, Sylvio Garattini, Steven D. Schafersman, PO Box 7951, Chicago, IL 60680-7951 Society for Amateur Scientists, director, Mario Negri Pharma cology Rebecca Long, asst. prof. of geology, Miami Univ., OH Tel.: (312) 226-0420 East Greenwich, RI Institute, Milan, Italy nuclear engineer, president of Geor gia INDIANAPOLIS Chris Scott, Council Against Health Fraud, Atlanta, GA 350 Canal Walk, Suite A, Indianapolis, IN 46202 Roger B. Culver, Laurie Godfrey, statistician, London, England prof. of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. anthropologist, Univ. of Massachusetts Thomas R. 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Thomason, Barbara Eisenstadt, representative, Europe prof. of materials science and 4773 Hollywood Blvd., Hollywood, CA 90027 en gineering, Iowa State Univ. prof. of linguistics, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA Tel.: (323) 666-9797 psychologist, educator, clinician, Philip A. Ianna, East Greenbush, NY James R. Pomerantz, Tim Trachet, ARGENTINA assoc. prof. of astronomy, Av. Santa Fe 1145 - 2do piso, (C1059ABF) William Evans, Univ. of Virginia prof. of psychology, Rice Univ. journalist and science writer, honorary Buenos Aires, Argentina prof. of communication, Gary P. 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Michael A 60 Journalist colony, JubileeHills, [email protected]. c/o O’Keefe, 4011 S. St. Louis, Missouri. Michael Blanford, Monmouth, OR 97361. www.04SR.org Stack pole, P.O. Box 60333, Phoenix, AZ Hyderabad-500033, India Manhattan Ave. #139, Tampa, FL 33611- President. E-mail: [email protected]. 85082 PENNSYLVANIA Tel.: +91-40-23540676 1277. www.tampabayskeptics.org 2729 Ann Ave., St. Louis, MO 63104 Philadelphia Association for Critical CALIFORNIA www.skepticalstl.org LONDON The James Randi Educational Think ing (PhACT), much of Pennsylvania. Sacramento Organization for Rational Conway Hall, 25 Red Lion Square, Foun dation. James Randi, Director. Tel: NEVADA Eric Krieg, Presi dent. Tel.: 215-885- Think ing (SORT) Sacramento, CA. Ray Span- London WC1R 4RL, England (954)467-1112; e-mail [email protected]. Skeptics of Las Vegas, (SOLV) PO Box 2089; e-mail: [email protected]. genburg, co-foun der. Tel.: 916-978-0321; 201 S.E. 12th St. (E. 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The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are independent and autonomous. Representatives of these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Amherst NY 14226-0703. International affiliated organizations listed at www.csicop.org