Tobacco Tax Reform at the CROSSROADS of HEALTH and DEVELOPMENT
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Public Disclosure Authorized Tobacco Tax Reform AT THE Public Disclosure Authorized CROSSROADS OF HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT A Multisectoral Perspective Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Prepared by a team led by Patricio V. Marquez and Blanca Moreno-Dodson Tobacco Tax Reform AT THE CROSSROADS OF HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT A Multisectoral Perspective Prepared by a team led by Patricio V. Marquez and Blanca Moreno-Dodson, including: Alexander Irwin Prabhat Jha Hana Ross Richard Peto Teh-Wei Hu Mark Goodchild Angela Lisulo Anne-Marie Perucic Melissa Brown Rose Zheng Enrique Fanta Evan Blecher Magaly Garcia Jeremias Paul Paul Isenman Annerie Bouw Sheila Dutta Rouselle F. Lavado Alberto Gonima Moritz Meyer Akosua Dakwa Iryna Postolovska Renzo Efren Sotomayor Cover photos (clockwise from left): City view of Hanoi, Vietnam. Photo by Dominic Chavez/World Bank. Children in the village of Ambohimahatsinjo in rural Madagascar. Photo by Mohammad Al-Arief/World Bank. Rice paddies. Photo by A’Melody Lee/World Bank. A construction worker takes a break. Photo by Alex Baluyut/World Bank. CONTENTS Acknowledgments 7 Executive Summary 11 The Tobacco Use Challenge 12 The Tobacco Tax Imperative 13 Early Wins in Countries 13 Making it Happen 14 Key Policy Challenges 15 Tobacco and Equity: Putting Poor People at the Center 15 Tobacco Taxation and Employment: Bridging to Better Livelihoods 16 Curbing the Illicit Tobacco Trade 18 Conclusion: Expanding the Global Coalition 19 References 20 Introduction 23 A Map for the Crossroads 24 Why This Report Now? 24 Structure of This Volume 25 References 29 Chapter 1: Global Tobacco Control: A Development Priority 31 Abstract 30 The Tobacco Use Challenge 31 Addressing the Tobacco Use Challenge 33 The Imperative of Tobacco Taxation 34 Global Tobacco Control: What is the World Bank Group Doing? 37 Recent Examples of World Bank Group Analytical Work, Technical 38 and Operational Support, and Results Achieved in Selected Countries Advancing the Tobacco Taxation Agenda 46 References 48 Chapter 2: Death and Taxes: Global Effects of Smoking, 55 of Quitting, and of Taxing Tobacco Abstract 54 Background 55 Three Key Messages for the Individual Cigarette Smoker in the 21st Century 56 Slow Emergence of the Full Eventual Hazards of Smoking 58 Relatively Rapid Emergence of Substantial Benefits of Stopping 61 Triple Price, Halve Smoking, Double Revenue 62 Other Effective Interventions: Information, Regulations, 66 and Support for Quitting Death and Taxes 67 Acknowledgments 68 References 68 Chapter 3: Raising Tobacco Taxes: Why, What, and How: 73 Where Public Health and Economics Converge Abstract 73 Background 74 Analytical Approach 75 The “Why?”: Arguments for Tobacco Taxation 75 The “What?”: Nuts and Bolts of Tobacco Taxation 82 The “How?”: Options for Policy Making and Implementation 83 Tobacco Taxation Effects: What to Expect 86 References 92 Chapter 4: The Health Impact of Raising Tobacco Taxes 95 in Developing Countries Abstract 94 Introduction 95 Tobacco Taxation and the Global Development Agenda 95 Modeling the Impact of Higher Tobacco Taxes 96 Tax Policy and Practice in Developing Countries 102 Conclusion 105 References 106 Chapter 5: Harmonizing Tobacco Taxation at the Regional Level: 109 The European Union Experience Abstract 108 Introduction 109 Beginning of the European Union 109 Why Harmonize Excise Duties on Tobacco Products? 110 Current Excise Duties on Tobacco Products in the EU 114 Association Agreements 118 Lessons Learned 118 Conclusion 120 Chapter 6: Beyond the Perceived Regressivity of Higher Tobacco Taxes: 123 Turning Short-Term Losers Into Long-Term Winners? Abstract 122 Introduction 123 Who Smokes? Social and Economic Patterns of Prevalence 124 How Households Adjust when Tobacco Taxes Rise 130 Empirical Evidence from Countries 139 Long-Term Health Gains from Tobacco Taxation: The Experience 141 of High-Income Countries Conclusions 144 References 145 Chapter 7: The Effects of Tobacco Taxes on Employment 153 and Labor Productivity Abstract 153 Introduction 154 The Impact of Tobacco Taxes on Employment 154 The Impact of Tobacco Taxes on Labor Productivity 165 References 169 Chapter 8: The Supply Side of Tobacco Consumption: 175 What Will It Take for Farmers to Switch to Other Crops? Abstract 175 Introduction 176 Potential Effects of Higher Tobacco Taxes on Global 177 and Local Tobacco Supply Relative Returns From Tobacco Versus Alternative Crops 182 Negative Externalities From Tobacco Production 187 Barriers and Feasibility of Switching from Tobacco to Other Crops 189 Summary and Conclusions 192 References 194 Chapter 9: Preventing and Controlling Illicit Tobacco Flows 197 Abstract 197 Background: Why Is Control Important? 198 Measures to Control Illicit Tobacco Flows 203 Case studies 210 Conclusions 213 References 214 Conclusion 217 From Evidence to Action 217 Seizing the “Win-Win-Win” 218 The Road Ahead 220 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared under the lead of Patricio V. Marquez and Blanca Moreno- Dodson, Co-Coordinators, World Bank Group Global Tobacco Control Program, with the editorial contribution of Alexander Irwin, by an international team comprised of (by chapter order): Chapter 1: Patricio V. Marquez (Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice, World Bank Group) Chapter 2: Prabhat Jha (Center for Global Health Research, St. Michael’s Hospital and Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada) and Richard Peto (Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Richard Doll Building, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom) Chapter 3: Blanca Moreno-Dodson (Global Taxation Team, Governance Global Practice, World Bank Group) Chapter 4: Mark Goodchild (World Health Organization), Anne-Marie Perucic (World Health Organization), Rose Zheng (University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China), Evan Blecher (World Health Organization), and Jeremias Paul (World Health Organization) Chapter 5: Annerie Bouw (European Commission) Chapter 6: Rouselle F. Lavado (World Bank Group, now at Asian Development Bank), Moritz Meyer (Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank Group), Iryna Postolovska (World Bank Group), and Renzo Efren Sotomayor (World Bank Group) Chapter 7: Hana Ross (University of Cape Town, South Africa) Chapter 8: Teh-Wei Hu (Public Health Institute’s Center for International Tobacco Control, Oakland, California), Angela Lisulo (Consultant, World Bank Group), and Melissa Brown (Agriculture Global Practice, World Bank Group) Chapter 9: Enrique Fanta (Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice, World Bank Group) and Magaly Garcia (World Bank Group) Tobacco Tax Reform • At the Crossroads of Health and Development Paul Isenman (former World Bank Group Director and Principal Economist) reviewed and commented upon drafts of all portions of the report, providing extensive technical inputs and suggestions, and enhancing the volume’s robustness and quality. Additional comments, and technical inputs provided by Alan Fuchs (World Bank Group), Francisco Meneses (Duke University, United States, and Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Chile), and Alberto Gonima (Consultant, World Bank Group). Victor Tanzi, former Director of the Fiscal Affairs Depart- ment at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), provided comments and guidance on an initial version of different chapters in the report. Sheila Dutta (World Bank Group) contributed to the Conclusions chapter, distilling the main messages of the report. Overall technical guidance and oversight provided by Enis Baris (Program Manager, Health, Nutrition, and Population Global Practice, World Bank Group), and Tim Evans (Senior Director, Health, Nutrition, and Population Global Practice, World Bank Group), James Brumby (Director, Governance Global Practice, World Bank Group), Alma Kanani (Program Manager, Governance Global Practice), and Marijn Verhoeven (Lead Economist, and Coordinator of Global Taxation Team, Governance Global Practice, World Bank Group). Akosua Dakwa (World Bank Group) provided administrative support. The preparation of this report was carried out under the World Bank Global Tobacco Control Program, supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Bloomberg Foundation. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed herein and they do not necessarily represent the views, decisions or policies of the institutions with which they are affiliated. Washington, D.C. September 26, 2017 8 // Acknowledgments TOBACCO USE NOT ONLY KILLS MILLIONS OF PEOPLE EACH YEAR BUT PLACES A STAGGERING POVERTY AND ECONOMIC BURDEN ON LOW- INCOME FAMILIES TOBACCO USE NOT ONLY KILLS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY There is a policy measure that can simultaneously save millions of lives, reduce poverty, and increase countries’ domestic resources for financing MILLIONS OF development. The policy measure consists of increasing excise tax rates on tobacco in order to reduce its affordability and, as evidence shows, lower its PEOPLE EACH consumption. Today, this powerful human development and poverty reduction measure remains largely underutilized, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This report provides decision support for policy makers YEAR BUT PLACES on tobacco tax reform, as well as analytical and empirical tools for using tobacco excise taxes to save lives and increase government revenues. The report sets forth the public health, economic, and anti-poverty case for higher tobacco taxes; shows how some countries have already