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Ecological, Environmental and Hydrological Integrity in Sustainable Water Resource Management for River Basins

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Ecological, Environmental and Hydrological Integrity in Sustainable Water Resource Management for River Basins Ecological, Environmental and Hydrological Integrity in Sustainable Water Resource Management for River Basins by Robert Louis Oxley A Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Approved April 2015 Graduate Supervisory Committee: Larry Mays, Chair Peter Fox Paul Johnson Alan Murray ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY May 2015 ABSTRACT This dissertation presents a new methodology for the sustainable and optimal allocation of water for a river basin management area that maximizes sustainable net economic benefit over the long-term planning horizon. The model distinguishes between short and long-term planning horizons and goals using a short-term modeling component (STM) and a long term modeling component (LTM) respectively. An STM optimizes a monthly allocation schedule on an annual basis in terms of maximum net economic benefit. A cost of depletion based upon Hotelling’s exhaustible resource theory is included in the STM net benefit calculation to address the non-use value of groundwater. An LTM consists of an STM for every year of the long-term planning horizon. Net economic benefits for both use and non-use values are generated by the series of STMs. In addition output from the STMs is measured in terms of sustainability which is quantified using a sustainability index (SI) with two groups of performance criteria. The first group measures risk to supply and is based on demand-supply deficits. The second group measures deviations from a target flow regime and uses a modified Hydrologic Alteration (HA) factor in the Range of Variability Approach (RVA). The STM is a linear programming (LP) model formulated in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) and the LTM is a nonlinear programming problem (NLP) solved using a genetic algorithm. The model is applied to the Prescott Active Management Area in north-central Arizona. Results suggest that the maximum sustainable net benefit is realized with a residential population and consumption rate increase in some areas, and a reduction in others. i DEDICATION To my wife Rachel, and my sons, Joshua, Nicholas, Micah and Zachary. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Larry Mays for his support, guidance, expertise, constructive criticism, and patience in all aspects of this dissertation; a chair extraordinaire. A special thank you to Alan Murray for his expertise and support in key aspects of this research, and to Paul Johnson and Peter Fox for their timely advice and manuscript review. I am blessed to be part of an incredible community: Dr. Charles Sedgwick, Nick Vieron, Joshua Ashurst, Charles Hunter (a.k.a ‘The Teacher’), WTF and TT crews; thanks for walking, providing safe places and keeping me sane through all of this. A very special debt of gratitude is due my family. To my father and mother, John and Barbara Oxley, thanks for the encouragement and support throughout my academic pursuits. To four incredible sons: Joshua Louis Oxley, Nicholas Alexander Oxley, Micah Aaron Oxley and Zachary David Oxley. You guys rock. And finally, the greatest thanks is due my greatest friend: Rachel Oxley, your loving sacrifice, patience, encouragement and listening ear know no bounds. “A good woman is hard to find, and worth far more than diamonds.” iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DEDICATION .................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................. iii LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................. x LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Problem Statement ...................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Objectives ........................................................................ 3 1.3 Overview of the Developed Model: Background and Approach .... 9 1.4 Contributions and Limitations .................................................................. 13 1.5 Organization of the Research .................................................................... 16 2 WATER MANAGEMENT MODELS ................................................................. 18 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 18 2.2 Background ............................................................................................... 18 2.3 Sustainability and Ecological Concerns in Water Management Models .. 20 2.3.1 Groundwater and Commonality ........................................................ 20 2.3.2 Sustainability in Hydrologic-Agronomic-Economic-Institutional Relationships ..................................................................................... 20 2.3.3 Maximum Net Benefit and Economic-Hydrologic Relationships .... 22 2.3.4 Non-use Value of Groundwater ........................................................ 22 iv CHAPTER Page 2.3.5 Environmental Concerns in Conjunctive Use ................................... 23 2.3.6 Riparian Basin Concerns................................................................... 23 2.3.7 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 24 2.4 Best Practices ............................................................................................ 25 2.5 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 29 2.6 Model Basis .............................................................................................. 30 2.7 Methodology ............................................................................................. 34 2.7.1 Model Scope ..................................................................................... 34 2.7.2 Statements of Input and Output ........................................................ 40 3 SUSTAINABILITY AND FLOW REGIME ...................................................... 42 3.1 Sustainability............................................................................................. 43 3.1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................... 43 3.1.2 Background ....................................................................................... 44 3.1.3 Sustainable Development of Water Resources ................................. 47 3.1.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 51 3.2 Flow Regime ............................................................................................. 52 3.2.1 Background ....................................................................................... 53 3.2.2 Flow regime assessment ................................................................... 57 3.2.3 Water management models and flow regime .................................... 65 3.2.4 Range of Variability Approach ......................................................... 69 3.2.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 74 v CHAPTER Page 3.3 Measuring Sustainability .......................................................................... 75 3.3.1 Performance Criteria ......................................................................... 76 3.4 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 83 4 MODEL DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................. 85 4.1 Model Components ................................................................................... 85 4.1.1 MySQL Database .............................................................................. 86 4.2 Short-Term Model Component (STM) ..................................................... 91 4.2.1 Cost of Depletion .............................................................................. 93 4.2.2 STM Formulation.............................................................................. 94 4.2.3 STM Solution Procedure................................................................... 97 4.3 Long-Term Modeling Component (LTM) .............................................. 102 4.3.1 RVA Application in the LTM ......................................................... 102 4.3.2 Interpretation of the Modified HA .................................................. 109 4.3.3 SI Application in the LTM .............................................................. 114 4.3.4 LTM Formulation ........................................................................... 119 4.3.5 LTM Solution Procedure ................................................................ 120 4.3.6 NLP Optimization ........................................................................... 121 4.3.7 Genetic Algorithm application ........................................................ 129 4.4 Summary ................................................................................................. 134 5 APPLICATION TO PRESCOTT AMA ............................................................ 135 vi CHAPTER Page 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................
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