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Download the Policy Brief POLICY BRIEF 2012-04 Public-Private Partnerships to A StrategyRevamp for U.S. NaturalInfrastructure Gas Exports JUNE 2012 POLICY BRIEF 2011-02 | MAY 2011 WWW.HAMILTONPROJECT.ORG ADVISORY COUNCIL GEORGE A. AKERLOF LawRENCE F. KATZ The Hamilton Project seeks to advance Koshland Professor of Economics Elisabeth Allison Professor of Economics America’s promise of opportunity, prosperity, and University of California at Berkeley Harvard University growth. ROGER C. ALTMAN MARK MCKINNON Founder & Chairman Global Vice Chair Evercore Partners Hill + Knowlton Strategies We believe that today’s increasingly competitive ALAN S. BLINDER ERIC MINDICH global economy demands public policy ideas Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor Chief Executive Officer commensurate with the challenges of the 21st of Economics & Public Affairs Eton Park Capital Management Princeton University Century. The Project’s economic strategy reflects SUZANNE NORA JOHNSON TIMOTHY C. COLLINS Former Vice Chairman a judgment that long-term prosperity is best Senior Managing Director Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. & Chief Executive Officer achieved by fostering economic growth and Ripplewood Holding, LLC PETER ORSZAG broad participation in that growth, by enhancing Vice Chairman of Global Banking JONATHAN COSLET Citigroup, Inc. individual economic security, and by embracing Senior Partner & Chief Investment Officer TPG Capital, L.P. RICHARD PERRY a role for effective government in making needed Chief Executive Officer ROBERT CUMBY Perry Capital public investments. Professor of Economics Georgetown University PENNY PRITZKER Founder, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer JOHN DEUTCH PSP Capital Our strategy calls for combining public investment, Institute Professor a secure social safety net, and fiscal discipline. In Massachusetts Institute of Technology MEEGHAN PRUNTY Senior Advisor that framework, the Project puts forward innovative KAREN DYNAN The Hamilton Project Vice President & Co-Director proposals from leading economic thinkers — based of Economic Studies ROBERT D. REISCHAUER Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution President Emeritus on credible evidence and experience, not ideology The Urban Institute or doctrine — to introduce new and effective policy CHRISTOPHER EDLEY, JR. Dean and Professor, Boalt School of Law ALICE M. RIVLIN options into the national debate. University of California, Berkeley Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Professor of Public Policy BLAIR W. EFFRON Georgetown University Founding Partner The Project is named after Alexander Hamilton, Centerview Partners LLC DavID M. RUBENSTEIN Co-Founder & Managing Director the nation’s first Treasury Secretary, who laid the JUDY FEDER The Carlyle Group Professor & Former Dean foundation for the modern American economy. Georgetown Public Policy Institute ROBERT E. RUBIN Hamilton stood for sound fiscal policy, believed that Georgetown University Co-Chair, Council on Foreign Relations Former U.S. Treasury Secretary broad-based opportunity for advancement would ROLAND FRYER Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics LESLIE B. SAMUELS drive American economic growth, and recognized Harvard University and CEO, EdLabs Senior Partner Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP that “prudent aids and encouragements on the part MARK T. GALLOGLY of government” are necessary to enhance and guide Cofounder & Managing Principal SHERYL SANDBERG Centerbridge Partners Chief Operating Officer market forces. The guiding principles of the Project Facebook TED GAYER remain consistent with these views. Senior Fellow & Co-Director RALPH L. SCHLOSSTEIN of Economic Studies President & Chief Executive Officer The Brookings Institution Evercore Partners RICHARD GEPHARDT ERIC SCHMIDT President & Chief Executive Officer Executive Chairman Gephardt Group Government Affairs Google Inc. The Hamilton Project Update ROBERT GREENSTEIN ERIC SCHwaRTZ Executive Director 76 West Holdings A periodic newsletter from The Hamilton Project Center on Budget and Policy Priorities THOMAS F. STEYER is available for e-mail delivery. CHUCK HAGEL Senior Managing Member Distinguished Professor Farallon Capital Management Subscribe at www.hamiltonproject.org. Georgetown University Former U.S. Senator LawRENCE SUMMERS Charles W. Eliot University Professor GLENN H. HUTCHINS Harvard University Co-Founder The views expressed in this policy brief are not necessarily those Silver Lake LAURA D’AndreA TYSON of The Hamilton Project Advisory Council or the trustees, officers S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Global JIM JOHNSON Management, Haas School of Business or staff members of the Brookings Institution. Vice Chairman University of California, Berkeley Perseus LLC Copyright © 2012 The Brookings Institution MICHAEL GREENSTONE Director problems particular to individual projects. He also offers broad A Strategy for recommendations aimed at using U.S. natural gas export policy to advance the nation’s foreign policy and trade goals, and U.S. Natural Gas Exports hence its broader economic prosperity. U.S. natural gas production is booming. New technologies now allow access to natural gas that had been The Challenge impossible for producers to extract economically only a few years ago. As a result, domestic natural gas prices have The divergence of world prices for natural gas appears to have plummeted, and the United States has reduced its demand for created an opportunity for U.S. firms to sell natural gas overseas imported gas. Indeed, ample production and higher natural at a profit. Until about five years ago, natural gas prices in the gas prices in foreign markets have led many to conclude that United States, Europe, and Asia were closely linked, but with the United States is in an ideal position to export natural gas the shale gas revolution in North America, this relationship has overseas. This has led to a flood of applications from firms to been, at least temporarily, broken (Figure 1). In 2012, the spot the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy price for one thousand cubic feet of natural gas fell below $2 in Regulatory Commission (FERC) for permission to export the United States, while the same amount of natural gas sold for liquefied natural gas (LNG) overseas. $11 in Europe and over $15 in Asia. Relatively high international gas prices and low prices in the United States have made the In a new discussion paper for The Hamilton Project, Michael prospect of exporting natural gas attractive to some American Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations proposes a six-part businesses, and several have applied for permits to ship LNG. framework for policymakers to use in assessing LNG exports Less than ten years ago, the United States was expected to be and applies it to the decisions currently confronting regulators. dependent on imports of natural gas indefinitely. Analysts now Under his proposal, regulators would evaluate applications predict that if exports of natural gas are allowed, the United for exporting natural gas on the basis of macroeconomic, States could export as much as six billion cubic feet of natural distributional, oil security, climate change, foreign policy, and gas per day by the end of the decade. local environmental considerations. Levi ultimately argues that, with the right steps to mitigate potential downsides, the benefits Before a company is allowed to export natural gas, it must receive to the United States of allowing natural gas exports would approval from DOE, which was mandated by Congress to oversee outweigh the costs of explicitly constraining them. He therefore the application approval process. Applications for exporting to proposes that the federal government approve applications countries with which the United States has an applicable Free for exports and for modifications to export terminals barring Trade Agreement (FTA) are expedited for approval—and permits FigUre 1. Select Prices of Natural Gas and LNG, 1993–2011 16 14 12 10 8 6 Dollars per million Btu 4 2 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average German natural gas import price (cif) US natural gas (Henry Hub) UK natural gas (NBP) Japan LNG (cif) Note: cif represents sum of cost, insurance and freight (average). The Hamilton Project • Brookings 3 Table 1. Costs and Benefits of Allowing Natural Gas Exports Benefits Costs Estimates suggest that the U.S. economy will Exports raise the cost of natural gas, resulting gain up to $4 billion annually from exports, in less domestic gas consumption, and hence Economic primarily from overseas sales of increased natural less economic output in some sectors. Estimates Output gas production. suggest that these losses are in the range of $500 million annually, primarily from reduced output in energy intensive industries. Current Account Total export revenues could be up to $20 billion higher each year, but the current account balance is What Balance likely to be unchanged absent more fundamental shifts in savings and consumption. macroeconomic consequences Exports could create up to 8,000 near‑term Estimates indicate that approximately 6,000 would natural gas jobs in export facility construction. In the long jobs could be lost in energy intensive industries exports have? run, they could also support up to 60,000 jobs in the long run due to higher natural gas prices. Employment in natural gas production and along the supply In the long run as the economy returns to full chain. employment, job gains due to LNG exports will be offset by losses elsewhere in the economy
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