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Jin Air Trading Buy (272450 KS ) (Upgrade) [Korea] Airlines January 15, 2021 Jin Air Trading Buy (272450 KS ) (Upgrade) Potential LCC integration TP: W20,000 ▲▲▲ Upside: 13.0% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jay JH Ryu [email protected] 4Q20 preview Operating loss likely continued on international weakness For 4Q20, we forecast Jin Air to post revenue of W53.8bn and an operating loss of W47.2bn (consensus: operating loss of W44.1bn). We believe passenger traffic was strong in the domestic segment (+19.8% YoY) but sluggish in the international segment (-99.4% YoY). Jin Air held around W150bn in cash at end-2020, after raising W105bn via an equity issue. Despite lower expenses due to furloughs, we believe the carrier will continue to record losses through 1H21. Key points to watch Potential integration of three LCCs Korean Air’s acquisition of Asiana Airlines has raised the possibility of the companies’ low-cost carriers (LCCs) being integrated. A merger of the three LCCs (Jin Air, Air Busan, and Air Seoul) would create a mega-LCC with a combined fleet of 60 aircraft (including four large aircraft). Earnings would likely recover rapidly after market conditions pick up, with restructuring and scale effects driving margin improvements. That said, we think the combined fleet (which would be split between Airbus and Boeing) would possibly need to be simplified. Recommendation Upgrade to Trading Buy and present TP of W20,000 We present a target price of W20,000 on Jin Air. With our target price implying 13% upside potential, we upgrade the stock to Trading Buy. When assuming a recovery, Jin Air’s current share price implies a P/S ratio of 0.9x; this suggests expectations of a recovery are being priced in. Looking ahead, the direction of LCC integration and the strength of a post-pandemic recovery in demand bear watching. Key data Current price (1/14/21, W) 17,700 Market cap (Wbn) 797 150 Jin Air KOSPI 130 OP (20F, Wbn) -187 Shares outstanding (mn) 45 110 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) -180 Free float (%) 37.5 90 EPS growth (20F, %) - Foreign ownership (%) 1.4 70 P/E (20F, x) - Beta (12M) 2.40 50 30 Market P/E (20F, x) 21.9 52-week low (W) 4,875 1.20 5.20 9.20 1.21 KOSPI 3,149.93 52-week high (W) 17,700 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Absolute 28.7 98.0 25.3 Revenue (Wbn) 888 1,011 910 274 270 820 Relative 12.9 37.2 -10.9 OP (Wbn) 97 63 -49 -187 -115 92 OP margin (%) 10.9 6.2 -5.4 -68.2 -42.6 11.2 NP (Wbn) 74 44 -57 -186 -102 85 EPS (W) 2,445 1,332 -1,697 -5,305 -2,266 1,892 ROE (%) 47.8 17.9 -24.7 -124.7 -183.5 180.6 P/E (x) 9.7 13.0 - - - 9.4 P/B (x) 3.4 2.2 2.3 5.2 55.0 8.0 Div. yield (%) 0.9 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Jin Air January 15, 2021 Table 1. 4Q20 preview (Wbn, %) 4Q20F Growth 4Q19 3Q20 Mirae Asset Consensus YoY QoQ Daewoo Revenue 182 54 54 53 -71 0.6 OP -60 -49 -47 -44 RR RR OP margin (%) -33 -92 -88 -83 RR RR Pretax profit -53 -46 -36 -21 RR RR NP -46 -46 -35 -10 RR RR Note: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP attributable to owners of the parent Source : Company data , WISEfn , Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. Earning forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F Revenue decline arising Revenue 431 740 274 270 -36 -64 from the pandemic Loss expansion due to falling OP -140 -23 -187 -115 - - revenue Pretax profit -159 -43 -187 -103 - - NP -139 -36 -186 -102 - - EPS (W) -4,639 -1,209 -5,305 -2,266 - - Note: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 3. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20F 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue 290 214 224 182 144 23 54 53.8 910 274 270 820 Domestic 32 51 45 46 17 18 46 49 174 130 184 184 International 241 148 161 124 108 0 3 2 674 114 500 500 Other 17 15 18 13 19 4 5 2 63 30 -414 136 OP 51 -27 -13 -60 -31 -60 -49 -47 -49 -187 -115 92 OP margin (%) 18 -12 -6 -33 -22 -257 -92 -88 -5 -68 -43 11 Domestic passengers 42 -32 -25 -53 -47 -58 -46 -36 -69 -187 -103 86 NP 32 -24 -18 -46 -46 -59 -46 -35 -57 -186 -102 85 Domestic passengers ASK (%, YoY) -3.4 -7.7 5.3 18.5 -27.1 -22.6 49.1 86.7 2.5 24.4 10.9 12.6 RPK (%, YoY) 0.4 -7.5 2.3 16.3 -37.7 -38.5 28.7 19.8 2.1 -5.7 38.9 2.2 L/F (%) 95.8 93.1 89.4 93.5 81.9 73.9 77.2 60 92.8 70.3 88.1 80 Yield (%, YoY) 1.4 0.8 -1.5 7.4 -13.2 -41.6 -20.8 -10.2 1.7 -20.4 5.1 -5.6 International passengers ASK (%, YoY) 7.3 9.8 -8.6 -12.9 -35.1 -99.8 -97.2 -97.2 -1.6 -80.0 -85.3 2794.5 RPK (%, YoY) 6.7 8.9 -9.3 -12.9 -50.1 -99.8 -99.3 -99.4 -2.0 -84.6 -80.1 2055.5 L/F (%) 88.5 82.4 80.9 83.7 68.1 85.7 19.6 18 84.1 64.8 88.1 65.6 Yield (%, YoY) -6.8 -12.3 -18.0 -18 -10.2 -2.9 166.5 214.8 -12.4 9.4 145.8 -58.3 Dubai crude (US$/bbl) 77 80 77 79 66 42 53 53 79 53 62 63 Average USD/KRW rate 1,125 1,167 1,194 1,176 1,195 1,221 1,187 1,120 1,166 1,183 1,100 1,100 Note: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 Jin Air January 15, 2021 Figure 1. Domestic and international yield trends Figure 2. Domestic and international L/F trends (W/km) (%) 180 Domestic yield International yield 120 Domestic International 160 100 140 80 120 60 100 40 80 60 20 40 0 4Q13 3Q15 2Q17 1Q19 4Q20 4Q13 3Q15 2Q17 1Q19 4Q20 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. CASK comparison Figure 4. Korean LCCs’ M/S on short-haul international routes (W/km) (%) 250 Korean Air Asiana Airlines 14 Air Busan Eastar Jet Jeju Air Jin Air Jeju Air Jin Air 12 T'way Air 200 10 150 8 6 100 4 50 2 0 0 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: IIA, KAC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 5. IIA short-haul passenger traffic growth Figure 6. IIA long-haul passenger traffic growth (%, YoY) (%, YoY) 75 Japan China 75 US Europe 55 55 35 35 15 15 -5 -5 -25 -25 -45 -45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: IIA, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: IIA, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 January 15, 2021 Jin Air Jin Air (272450 KS) Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F (Wbn) 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue 910 274 270 820 Current assets 353 186 176 224 Cost of revenue 877 427 356 642 Cash & equivalents 63 148 126 147 GP 33 -153 -86 178 AR & other receivables 28 8 15 27 SG&A expenses 82 35 30 86 Inventory 2 0 1 2 OP (adj.) -49 -187 -115 92 Other current assets 260 30 34 48 OP -49 -187 -115 92 Non-current assets 351 572 577 879 Non-operating profit -20 0 12 -6 Investments in associates 4 1 2 3 Net financial income -7 -13 -14 -6 PP&E 2 0 0 0 Net income from associates 0 0 20 0 Intangible assets 6 4 3 2 Pretax profit -69 -187 -103 86 Total assets 704 758 753 1,103 Income tax -12 -1 -1 1 Current liabilities 306 212 306 567 Profit from continuing operations -57 -186 -102 85 AP & other payables 7 2 4 7 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 96 150 199 369 NP -57 -186 -102 85 Other current liabilities 203 60 103 191 Attributable to owners -57 -186 -102 85 Non-current liabilities 206 440 442 446 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 0 Long-term financial liabilities 196 437 437 437 Total comprehensive income -58 -187 -102 85 Other non-current liabilities 10 3 5 9 Attributable to owners -58 -187 -102 85 Total liabilities 513 652 748 1,014 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 0 Equity attributable to owners 192 107 5 90 EBITDA 71 -97 -109 98 Capital stock 30 45 45 45 FCF 64 -218 -50 181 Capital surplus 92 182 182 182 EBITDA margin (%) 7.8 -35.4 -40.4 12.0 Retained earnings 77 -110 -212 -127 OP margin (%) -5.4 -68.2 -42.6 11.2 Minority interests 0 0 0 0 Net margin (%) -6.3 -67.9 -37.8 10.4 Shareholders' equity 192 107 5 90 Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Operating cash flow 65 -218 -45 186 P/E (x) - - - 9.4 NP -57 -186 -102 85 P/CF (x) 6.0 - - 8.2 Non-cash income/expenses 133 97 13 13 P/B (x) 2.3 5.2 55.0 8.0 Depreciation 118 88 5 5 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 - - 14.5 Amortization 2 2 1 1 EPS (W) -1,697 -5,305 -2,266 1,892 Other 13 7 7 7 CFPS (W) 2,302 -2,538 -1,976 2,171 Chg.
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