BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009
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BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009 The projected grain balance sheet for 2009/2010 Figure 1. Food security assessment for November 2009 shows a gross surplus of roughly 309,689 metric tons, netting out to 566,636 MT. This estimate of gross national production will be adjusted downward by approximately five percent for crop losses in livestock‐raising/millet‐producing areas, transhumant pastoral/millet‐producing areas, and northern sedentary livestock‐raising/sorghum, millet, and cotton‐producing areas affected by the September droughts or by the shortened rainy season. Poor households in these areas will require assistance in maintaining regular access to food in local markets until next July or August. Widespread harvesting activities are improving household grain availability. As a result, in general, grain prices are down from the previous reporting period. Terms of trade trends are in favor of pastoralists, with prices for livestock on the rise Pour plus d'informations sur l’échelle d'insécurité alimentaire de FEWS NET, visitez: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale given the high demand during the December Source: FEWS NET Burkina Faso holidays. Thus, on the whole, the food security situation is good. Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events Source: FEWS NET Burkina Faso Overview of the current food security situation The forecast for the 2009/2010 growing season issued by the Forecasting Committee and ratified by the subregional technical discussion meeting on harvest outlooks and grain balance sheets puts grain production at 3,901,160 metric tons, four percent above the five‐year average but down 10 percent from last season (Figure 1). The largest declines in grain FEWS NET Burkina Faso FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Ouagadougou 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00226 50 37 47 06 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected]/[email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/burkina BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009 production are in the Sahelian, North‐Central, Central‐Western, and Northeastern regions. Nevertheless, the projected grain balance sheet for 2009/2010 shows a 309,689 MT gross surplus. Another estimated 256‐947 metric tons of scheduled imports brings the net surplus to 566,636 MT. A breakdown shows most of this output from sorghum (43 percent), millet (26 percent), corn (24 percent), rice (6 percent), and fonio crops (1 percent). The largest decline is in millet production, most of which is from the Mouhoun region (20 percent), followed by the Sahel (12 percent), and the Eastern and Northern regions (with 11 percent each). Sorghum and corn production are also down from last year. Rice production, which made great strides last year, is, up again this year. Most rice crops are grown in the Hauts Bassins region, which accounts for 22 percent of all rice production, followed by the Central‐Eastern region (with 17 percent), the Mouhoun region (with 15 percent), and the Cascades region (with 11 percent). Fonio production, primarily from the Hauts Bassins (57 percent), Mouhoun (25 percent), and Cascades (17 percent) regions, is also generally up by a sizeable margin from last year. Figure 1. Grain production for 2009/2010, compared with the 2008/2009 season and the five-year average Grain crops Millet Corn Rice Fonio Sorghum Total Forecasts for 2009‐2010 1 020 407 948 903 223 433 25 159 1 683 457 3 901 360 Production for 2008‐2009 1 255 189 1 013 634 195 102 19 547 1 875 046 4 358 518 Five‐year average production 1 122 581 832 425 138 938 14 965 1 626 870 3 735 779 Differential between the 2009‐2010 ‐19% ‐6% 15% 29% ‐10% ‐10% forecast and 2008‐2009 production Differential between the 2009‐2010 ‐9% 14% 61% 68% 3% 4% forecast and the five‐year average Source: Forecasting Committee Food crop production (cowpeas, earth peas, yams, and sweet potatoes), estimated at 662,141 MT, is down seven percent from last year. The largest decline (12 percent) is in cowpea production, which usually brings in substantial income for farmers growing these crops. In contrast, yam production is up by 46 percent. These crops are grown mainly in the Southwestern, Central‐Western, Hauts Bassins, and Mouhoun regions. Cash crop production (cotton, groundnuts, sesame, and soybeans) is also down 12 percent from last year. The largest decline is in soybean production (42 percent), followed by cotton (26 percent). On the other hand, groundnut production is up by 18 percent. Even with the grain surplus, poor and very poor households in livelihood zones 5, 6, 7, and 8 (Figure 2) will have smaller grain reserves due to mediocre harvests. These households will need to purchase supplies on local markets as of the end of March 2010. With the foreseeable rise in prices at that time, these households will be forced to sell poultry and small animals in order to buy grain. Terms of trade for livestock/grain could quickly deteriorate, to the detriment of pastoralists. Households in zones 7 and 8 which do not own any animals will be forced to migrate to large urban areas and gold‐washing sites in search of extra income. The food security situation of these households will begin to deteriorate at this point, but they should not require assistance before March 2010 (Figure 3). Market supplies are adequate and gradually improving with the stepping up of harvesting activities. The marketing of part of these harvests is bringing in needed income for farmers to meet other household expenses. The availability of fresh crops for farm families and/or agropastoral households in all parts of the country is helping to strengthen their food security. Right now, improvement in the availability of fresh crops and carry‐over inventories from last season on markets in crop‐producing areas is helping to boost supply and bring down general price levels from last month. This is benefiting non‐farm households by improving their food access, even if sorghum prices are still high compared with the same time last year and prices for all local grain crops are still above the five‐year average. The food Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009 situation is also good for people in areas that were classified as at‐ Figure 2. Livelihood zone map of Burkina Faso risk of facing food insecurity by the Forecasting Committee last October. The kick‐off of the marketing season for shea nuts just last week should help bring in income for many rural households in spite of the projected small decline in production levels from the average of approximately 100,000 MT and the lower prices compared with last year (95 CFAF/kg compared with 110‐115 CFAF/kg last year). Effects of the early September flooding 8 MALI Djibo ! Dori ! 7 NIGER An September 1‐3 assessment of the impact of the flooding in Ouahigouya ! Ouagadougou and the Boucle du Mouhoun, Eastern, Central‐ Tougan Kaya ! ! 6 Eastern, Central, North‐Central, South‐Central, Central Plateau, and 5Ziniare Dedougou ! ! 4 Ouagadougou [ Koudougou !( ! Northern regions updated previous estimates, putting the new Fada N'Gourma ! 3 Tenkodogo number of flood victims at 119,356, including 49,261 residents of ! 9 Bobo-Dioulasso Po Ouagadougou. Crop damage was minor. A nationwide total of ! Leo ! ! Orodara Diebougou ! ! Banfora approximately 22,200 hectares of grain and vegetable crops were !2 1 Gaoua BENIN flooded, or 0.6 percent of the total area planted in grain. A total of ! GHANA TOGO 2,004 hectares of vegetable crops were damaged by floodwaters, 0 50 100 COTE D'IVOIRE including 330 hectares in and around Ouagadougou. The Kilometers government, humanitarian organizations, and other donors are still Source: FEWS NET Burkina Faso providing food supplies for the new evacuation sites. Markets in the capital have adequate supplies with the harvest season underway and, as usual at this time of year, prices are trending downward. Supplies of fresh vegetables in the capital are also normal for this time of year. The impact of the flooding on household food security conditions is less severe than expected thanks to emergency interventions and planned recovery assistance programs for productive assets. The resumption of income‐generating activities by flood victims is helping to maintain their food access. Households in the capital affected by the recent flooding should generally be food‐secure thanks to scheduled programs by the government’s food security partners and efforts by the flood victims themselves to mount income‐generating activities with available resources. With the announced shutdown of evacuation sites at the end of November, poor and highly food‐ insecure households (households headed by women, disabled persons, persons living with HIV, etc.) will require food aid, which could be provided by traditional safety net programs. The WFP, which is already providing the flood victims with food aid, will assist some 20,000 flood‐stricken households unable to meet their needs through the monthly voucher system to purchase food items and other staple goods. Figure 3. Food security assessment for Burkina Faso, January through March 2010 Progress of the 2009/10 season Harvests of rainfed crops are still in progress. Harvests of corn, groundnut, and cowpea crops are nearly completed. The planting of off‐season crops continues, with the first seedbeds planted in some areas at the end of September. The good progress of these activities should enable farm families with market gardens to raise their incomes and improve their food situation, including their nutritional status, during the dry season. After a lull in rainfall activity beginning in mid‐ September in certain areas and in the second dekad of Source of data: Forecasting Committee; Graphic by FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009 September in other areas, the rains picked up in the third dekad of October.