BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009

 The projected grain balance sheet for 2009/2010 Figure 1. Food security assessment for November 2009 shows a gross surplus of roughly 309,689 metric tons, netting out to 566,636 MT. This estimate of gross national production will be adjusted downward by approximately five percent for crop losses in livestock‐raising/millet‐producing areas, transhumant pastoral/millet‐producing areas, and northern sedentary livestock‐raising/sorghum, millet, and cotton‐producing areas affected by the September droughts or by the shortened rainy season. Poor households in these areas will require assistance in maintaining regular access to food in local markets until next July or August.

 Widespread harvesting activities are improving household grain availability. As a result, in general, grain prices are down from the previous reporting period. Terms of trade trends are in favor of pastoralists, with prices for livestock on the rise Pour plus d'informations sur l’échelle d'insécurité alimentaire de FEWS NET, visitez: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale given the high demand during the December Source: FEWS NET holidays. Thus, on the whole, the food security situation is good.

Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events

Source: FEWS NET Burkina Faso

Overview of the current food security situation

The forecast for the 2009/2010 growing season issued by the Forecasting Committee and ratified by the subregional technical discussion meeting on harvest outlooks and grain balance sheets puts grain production at 3,901,160 metric tons, four percent above the five‐year average but down 10 percent from last season (Figure 1). The largest declines in grain

FEWS NET Burkina Faso FEWS NET Washington Ouagadougou 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00226 50 37 47 06 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected]/[email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/burkina

BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009

production are in the Sahelian, North‐Central, Central‐Western, and Northeastern regions. Nevertheless, the projected grain balance sheet for 2009/2010 shows a 309,689 MT gross surplus. Another estimated 256‐947 metric tons of scheduled imports brings the net surplus to 566,636 MT.

A breakdown shows most of this output from sorghum (43 percent), millet (26 percent), corn (24 percent), rice (6 percent), and fonio crops (1 percent). The largest decline is in millet production, most of which is from the Mouhoun region (20 percent), followed by the Sahel (12 percent), and the Eastern and Northern regions (with 11 percent each). Sorghum and corn production are also down from last year. Rice production, which made great strides last year, is, up again this year. Most rice crops are grown in the Hauts Bassins region, which accounts for 22 percent of all rice production, followed by the Central‐Eastern region (with 17 percent), the Mouhoun region (with 15 percent), and the Cascades region (with 11 percent). Fonio production, primarily from the Hauts Bassins (57 percent), Mouhoun (25 percent), and Cascades (17 percent) regions, is also generally up by a sizeable margin from last year.

Figure 1. Grain production for 2009/2010, compared with the 2008/2009 season and the five-year average Grain crops Millet Corn Rice Fonio Sorghum Total

Forecasts for 2009‐2010 1 020 407 948 903 223 433 25 159 1 683 457 3 901 360

Production for 2008‐2009 1 255 189 1 013 634 195 102 19 547 1 875 046 4 358 518

Five‐year average production 1 122 581 832 425 138 938 14 965 1 626 870 3 735 779

Differential between the 2009‐2010 ‐19% ‐6% 15% 29% ‐10% ‐10% forecast and 2008‐2009 production

Differential between the 2009‐2010 ‐9% 14% 61% 68% 3% 4%

forecast and the five‐year average Source: Forecasting Committee

Food crop production (cowpeas, earth peas, yams, and sweet potatoes), estimated at 662,141 MT, is down seven percent from last year. The largest decline (12 percent) is in cowpea production, which usually brings in substantial income for farmers growing these crops. In contrast, yam production is up by 46 percent. These crops are grown mainly in the Southwestern, Central‐Western, Hauts Bassins, and Mouhoun regions. Cash crop production (cotton, groundnuts, sesame, and soybeans) is also down 12 percent from last year. The largest decline is in soybean production (42 percent), followed by cotton (26 percent). On the other hand, groundnut production is up by 18 percent.

Even with the grain surplus, poor and very poor households in livelihood zones 5, 6, 7, and 8 (Figure 2) will have smaller grain reserves due to mediocre harvests. These households will need to purchase supplies on local markets as of the end of March 2010. With the foreseeable rise in prices at that time, these households will be forced to sell poultry and small animals in order to buy grain. Terms of trade for livestock/grain could quickly deteriorate, to the detriment of pastoralists. Households in zones 7 and 8 which do not own any animals will be forced to migrate to large urban areas and gold‐washing sites in search of extra income. The food security situation of these households will begin to deteriorate at this point, but they should not require assistance before March 2010 (Figure 3).

Market supplies are adequate and gradually improving with the stepping up of harvesting activities. The marketing of part of these harvests is bringing in needed income for farmers to meet other household expenses.

The availability of fresh crops for farm families and/or agropastoral households in all parts of the country is helping to strengthen their food security. Right now, improvement in the availability of fresh crops and carry‐over inventories from last season on markets in crop‐producing areas is helping to boost supply and bring down general price levels from last month. This is benefiting non‐farm households by improving their food access, even if sorghum prices are still high compared with the same time last year and prices for all local grain crops are still above the five‐year average. The food

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BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009

situation is also good for people in areas that were classified as at‐ Figure 2. Livelihood zone map of Burkina Faso risk of facing food insecurity by the Forecasting Committee last October.

The kick‐off of the marketing season for shea nuts just last week should help bring in income for many rural households in spite of the projected small decline in production levels from the average of approximately 100,000 MT and the lower prices compared with last year (95 CFAF/kg compared with 110‐115 CFAF/kg last year).

Effects of the early September flooding 8 MALI Djibo ! Dori ! 7 NIGER An September 1‐3 assessment of the impact of the flooding in Ouahigouya !

Ouagadougou and the Boucle du Mouhoun, Eastern, Central‐ Tougan Kaya ! ! 6 Eastern, Central, North‐Central, South‐Central, Central Plateau, and 5Ziniare Dedougou ! ! 4 Ouagadougou [ Koudougou !( ! Northern regions updated previous estimates, putting the new Fada N'Gourma !

3 Tenkodogo number of flood victims at 119,356, including 49,261 residents of ! 9 Bobo-Dioulasso Po Ouagadougou. Crop damage was minor. A nationwide total of ! Leo ! ! Orodara Diebougou ! !

Banfora approximately 22,200 hectares of grain and vegetable crops were !2 1 Gaoua BENIN flooded, or 0.6 percent of the total area planted in grain. A total of ! TOGO

2,004 hectares of vegetable crops were damaged by floodwaters, 0 50 100 COTE D'IVOIRE including 330 hectares in and around Ouagadougou. The Kilometers government, humanitarian organizations, and other donors are still Source: FEWS NET Burkina Faso providing food supplies for the new evacuation sites. Markets in the capital have adequate supplies with the harvest season underway and, as usual at this time of year, prices are trending downward. Supplies of fresh vegetables in the capital are also normal for this time of year. The impact of the flooding on household food security conditions is less severe than expected thanks to emergency interventions and planned recovery assistance programs for productive assets. The resumption of income‐generating activities by flood victims is helping to maintain their food access.

Households in the capital affected by the recent flooding should generally be food‐secure thanks to scheduled programs by the government’s food security partners and efforts by the flood victims themselves to mount income‐generating activities with available resources. With the announced shutdown of evacuation sites at the end of November, poor and highly food‐ insecure households (households headed by women, disabled persons, persons living with HIV, etc.) will require food aid, which could be provided by traditional safety net programs. The WFP, which is already providing the flood victims with food aid, will assist some 20,000 flood‐stricken households unable to meet their needs through the monthly voucher system to purchase food items and other staple goods. Figure 3. Food security assessment for Burkina Faso, January

through March 2010

Progress of the 2009/10 season

Harvests of rainfed crops are still in progress. Harvests of corn, groundnut, and cowpea crops are nearly completed. The planting of off‐season crops continues, with the first seedbeds planted in some areas at the end of September. The good progress of these activities should enable farm families with market gardens to raise their incomes and improve their food situation, including their nutritional status, during the dry season.

After a lull in rainfall activity beginning in mid‐ September in certain areas and in the second dekad of Source of data: Forecasting Committee; Graphic by FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009

September in other areas, the rains picked up in the third dekad of October. Ten‐day rainfall totals ranged from 1.1 mm in a single day in Ouahigouya to 100 mm over a six‐day period in Bobo‐Dioulasso. These rains helped fill bodies of water in the Cascades region and damaged crops waiting to be harvested or stored in the field for future drying. Season‐long cumulative rainfall totals as of October 31st ranged from 422.7 mm in Dori to 1,118 mm in Gaoua and, compared with the average, were below‐average in , near‐average in Bobo‐Dioulasso, Dori, Bogande, and Boromo, and above‐average in Gaoua, Ouahigouya, Dédougou, Ouagadougou, Fada N’Gourma, and Po. This year’s season‐long cumulative rainfall figures were down from last year by 84 percent in Dori, 88 percent in Fada N’Gourma, 73 percent in Boromo, 83 percent in Bobo‐ Dioulasso, 75 percent in Bérégadougou, and 84 percent in Niangoloko.

A look at season‐long cumulative RFE anomalies compared with Figure 4. Satellite image of cumulative RFE anomalies the short‐term average (Figure 4) shows generally average rainfall as of the third dekad of October 2009, compared conditions, with scattered moderate rainfall deficits in parts of with the 1982-2008 average the Sahel, the northern reaches of the North‐Central region, and Gnagna province in the East, where this year’s poor pasture production is partly attributable to the numerous periods of drought.

Green pasture is drying out, particularly in predominantly livestock‐raising areas (Figure 5a). A comparison of natural vegetation with the 2004‐2008 average (Figure 5b) shows small to moderate deficits in livestock‐raising/millet‐producing areas, transhumant pastoral/millet‐producing areas, and northern sedentary livestock‐raising/sorghum, millet, and cotton‐producing areas. Seasonal migration, which is already in progress, began unusually early (compared with its normal starting dates in December/January) due to the limited availability of natural pasture and the drying up of secondary water sources. The food situation for livestock is satisfactory in all parts of the country Source: FEWS NET/USGS/NOAA except in the aforesaid three livelihood zones. Small animals are in good shape. On the other hand, cattle have failed to reach their optimal body weight to make it through the hunger season in fair physical condition without resorting to animal feed supplements. Special measures must be taken to protect livestock and manage destocking activities to sustain terms of trade for livestock/grain and their inventory value for pastoralists.

Figure 5a. Satellite image of the normalized difference Figure 5b. Satellite image of NDVI anomalies for the vegetation index (NDVI) for the third dekad of October third dekad of October 2009, compared with the average 2009

Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Source: FEWS NET/USGS

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BURKINA FASO Food Security Update November 2009

Markets and trade

Markets are functioning normally for this time of year, marked by good domestic grain availability from harvested crops, as well as from grain imports from neighboring coastal states.

According to experts with the Rural Economic Development Office, this year there are 890,000 metric tons of potentially marketable grain crops, versus a potential demand for 675,000 MT of grain. However, needs for the rebuilding of inventories, exports, supplies for processing plants, animal feed, etc. could put pressure on grain prices. The World Food Program office in Ouagadougou is planning to make local procurements of 1,500 MT of sorghum, corn, and cowpeas from small farmers’ organizations in 2009 and of another 2,000 MT in 2010 under its “Purchase for Progress” (P4P) program. The National Food Security Reserve Management Company (SONAGESS) is also planning to purchase 16,900 MT of grain to rebuild its reserves, which is considered sufficient to mitigate this year’s food insecurity problems. The procurement notice is normally issued in January.

In general, October prices for local grain crops on production markets were down from the previous month by nine percent in the case of millet, 11 percent in the case of sorghum, and 18 percent in the case of corn. Retail market prices were down by 8 to 10 percent.

A comparison with October of last year puts sorghum prices up by 10 percent on production markets and by eight percent on retail markets. Corn prices were down on both types of markets, by 4 percent on production markets and by 7 percent on retail markets. Millet prices were also down (by 14 percent) on production market, but retail prices were unchanged. Prices for all grain crops are still above the five‐year average on both types of markets, particularly in the case of retail prices, which are from 12 to 19 percent above‐average. The Gorom‐Gorom market had the highest monthly price for millet, at 204 CFAF/kg, compared with 194 CFAF in Dori, and 139 CFAF in Djibo. Compared with Mali, Niger, Côte d’Ivoire, and Benin, Burkina Faso has the lowest prices for locally grown grain (millet, corn, and sorghum).

With current trends in grain prices, the drive of grain traders and forwarders should ensure a regular flow of supplies to areas with production deficits. Since the gross grain surplus is not that large, there will probably be new de facto controls on grain exports at border checkpoints.

Livestock prices on markets in the Sahel are up slightly from the previous reporting period. This upswing in prices is attributable to the generally satisfactory condition of livestock, the availability of fresh crops, and the upcoming celebration of Tabaski. Terms of trade for livestock/grain are in favor of pastoralists. Sales of Sahelian male goats in good physical condition on the Gorom‐Gorom market are bringing in the equivalent of a sack of grain, with prices climbing from 24,000 CFAF to 25,000 CFAF and then shooting up to 33,000 CFAF over the last three weeks. Needs for the upcoming holiday season should sustain this price trend through the end of the year. Current terms of trade for pastoralists are better than they were last year and show a visible improvement over last month.

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ANNEX: Burkina Faso Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009

Millet, maize, and sorghum are the most important food commodities for household consumption. Millet is the staple of the most vulnerable households, while maize and sorghum also contribute to the food basket of a majority of all households. Sankaryare market is the largest and most important market in Ouagadougou and supplies other markets within the country and region. Koudougou is located in one of the most populated areas in the country, where a majority of households depend on the market for their food needs. Djibo is in the highly vulnerable Sahelian zone. Pouytenga is an assembly market for products from Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, and Togo. Solenzo is a rural market located in the middle of a surplus production zone. Bobo Dioulasso is important center for both consumption and production – it functions as both the economic capital of Burkina Faso and is located in an important cereal production zone.

Monthly prices are supplied by the national market information system of Burkina Faso.

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ANNEX: Burkina Faso Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009

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ANNEX: Burkina Faso Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009

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