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Article Pr AISSAOUI EV Journal d’Economie, de Management, d’Environnement et de Droit (JEMED) ISSN 2605-6461 Vol 3. N°2, mai 2020 Analysis of spatio-temporal variations and at-risk populations of road insecurity; case study of road traffic accidents in Algeria Nasreddine AISSAOUI Associate Professor Faculty of Economics, Business and Management Sciences, OEB University / Algeria [email protected] ABSTRACT : Our analysis focuses on the spatio-temporal characteristics of traffic accidents in Algeria, we record annually peaks of road accidents on sections of highway, national roads, etc. as we record peaks during months of the year, a few days a month or during hours of the day. Thus, our goal is to identify where and when that record the most significant statistics, and understand the trend in claims, to fully redeploy the resources to mitigate the hecatomb on our roads. To achieve this, we opted for a descriptive analytical study, based on the description of the scourge "road insecurity" at the national level, as well as the analysis of the causes and consequences of this scourge in space and time. We pointed out several results, among them: the road traffic accidents always preferred the period of the holidays, so 32% of the accidents are recorded during the month of July and August, the most deadly month of the year is that of Ramadan, the days of departure and the weekend return are the most significant, and the most sober part of the day is during the evening between 18:00 and midnight; regarding the accident site, the RN1 road and the East- West highway are the deadliest, the wilayas of the center of the country are at the head of the pack in terms of traffic accidents, and the wilaya of Msila in matters killed in traffic accidents; Young drivers are the most involved in traffic accidents that occurred in 2017 and 2018. KEYWORDS : Road insecurity; temporal evolution of traffic accidents; spatial evolution of traffic accidents; the populations at risk; roads of Algeria. Introduction The “Accidentology” as a science or science of accidents is relatively young; it was created in 1968 by French researchers of the ONSER [www.ceesar.fr ], like the policy of road safety which did not really start in France for example that in 1972. Since then, research in this field has continued to evolve, in this case technological development to prevent the disaster [Carnis, 2017 ]. Thus, we are switched from the fatality of the accident to the diagnosis of the phenomenon, the understanding of risk factors and finally the evaluation of alternative prevention. So, all researchers agree that accident is the combination of multiple factors that act on each other imposing a multidisciplinary approach, involving epidemiologists, engineers, psychologists, biomechanics, lawyers, insurers, educators and economists. Concerning the followers of this discipline, recognizing that there is a constraint of resources in road safety militates then in favor of the development of an economic approach of the stakes of road safety, in short an economy of the road safety. It would be particularly inappropriate to deprive oneself of such an approach, in other words to give up a tool to grasp these dimensions and the associated stakes [Carnis et Mignot, 2010 ]. In science of accidents; the analysis of accidents is the most developed, and we can distinguish a little bit like in economics: a “micro” approach of studying the mechanism of the individual accidents, and a “macro” approach to study all accidents with methods directly inspired by epidemiology. However, psychological or sociological approaches to public 36 Journal d’Economie, de Management, d’Environnement et de Droit (JEMED) ISSN 2605-6461 Vol 3. N°2, mai 2020 health are less developed, while recent initiatives have sought to counter this [Chapelon, 2008 ]. Road insecurity is a global phenomenon, which causes more than 1.35 million people killed each year in traffic accidents. The risk of death from road traffic remains three times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries, with rates being the highest in Africa at 26.6 per 100,000, and the lowest in Europe with 9.3 per 100,000 inhabitants [OMS, 2018 ]. Road insecurity is a real public health issue that needs to be studied in order to prevent road accidents, to reduce their consequences and contribute to the sustainable development of the safety of road users [Brenac, 2004 ]. Indicators of road insecurity in Algeria have declined significantly in recent years. It should be said that the 22991 accidents recorded during the year 2018 are the lowest threshold ever recorded since the year 1995, during which time there were 20127 traffic accidents. A situation that has had a positive impact on other road safety indicators at the national level: - 9.4% in number of people killed and - 10.24% in the number of people injured compared to 2017 [CNPSR , 2018a]. The road insecurity in Algeria is characterized by spatio-temporal variations; a possible analysis of these variations can guide us to elaborate possible actions that bring together all the stakeholders, in order to mitigate the disaster on our roads. Thus a short, medium and long-term comparison of road insecurity statistics, and others on the scene of the disaster on our national territory, could effectively reconstruct a puzzle, which includes periods, places and the population at risk. Make a cartography of the road accident and a calendar of the periods at risk, is only one step to constitute a barometer, in order to provide an assessment from one period to another, and to underline the priorities to redirect the efforts on these two shutters: preventive and repressive, in order to counter traffic accidents, and thus save life for high-risk populations: young drivers, pitons, schoolchildren, etc. In order to take fairly targeted measures and correct the situation, we will first have to answer the following questions: What are the places and periods known to be accident-prone.? And what are the populations at risk of road insecurity? 1. Characteristics of the "road insecurity" equation in Algeria Algeria is a country that covers a vast area of 2381741km 2. Thus, this country has one of the densest road networks in Africa thanks to its 124107 km of roads. Road transport is the most dominant form of transport [Bakour, 2016 ]. 1.1. The evolution of road traffic accidents in Algeria Indicators of road insecurity have declined slightly and steadily in recent years. Thus, 22991 people injured were recorded during the year 2018, so 2047 less accidents than in the same period of 2017, a situation that positively influenced the other road insecurity indicators at the national level. In fact, traffic accidents dropped by 9.4% compared to 2017, saving 329 lives. The number of people injured on our roads has decreased by 10.24%: 32570 people during the year 2018, against 36287 during the year 2017, so 3717 less people injured [CNPSR, 2019 ]. It should be said that 22991 traffic accidents was recorded during the year 2018, this number constitute the lowest threshold ever recorded since 1995. During the same year, there were 20127 road traffic injuries [Gendarmerie nationale, 2018 ]. From 1970 to 2018, we can distinguish four phases of road insecurity in Algeria. (see fig.1). 37 Journal d’Economie, de Management, d’Environnement et de Droit (JEMED) ISSN 2605-6461 Vol 3. N°2, mai 2020 Fig.1: The evolution of road safety on Algerian roads during the period 1970-2018 80000 Accidents 70000 Injured 60000 Killed 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: CNPSR (2019) From the early 70s to the mid of 80s, we recorded an increase in the number of accidents that did not drop below 23000 traffic accidents, it was in 1985 that the number of accidents crossed the bar of 35000 accidents. Ditto for the evolution of the number of people injured, where we recorded in 1970 the number of 19730 people injured, a peak was recorded in 1986 with 38548 people injured. It is the same for the evolution of the number of people killed, so we recorded in 1970 the number of 1374 people killed, this number soared to reach 4134 people killed recorded in 1985, so the number of deaths has practically tripled in 15 years [www.ons.dz ]. So the evolution of the number of traffic accidents, people injured and people killed followed the same trend during this period, and it is still rising, so we recorded respectively evolution rates during this period: + 44.48% , + 95.38% and + 201%. The main cause of this evolution is probably due to the increase in the national transportation fleet during this period. We distinguish a second period from the mid-80s to mid-90s, which saw a negative evolution in the number of traffic accidents: from 34899 accidents in 1986 to 20197 accidents in 1995. Ditto for the number of people injured, where we counted in 1987 the number of 38012 people injured, a few years later the number of injured down to 26768 case in 1995 [www.ons.dz ]. As for the number of killed, this period is characterized by a fluctuation of the number of deaths on the different roads of the country, but the average tends resolutely to the rise. Thus, we recorded in 1986 the number of 3948 people killed, a few years later this number has exceeded the bar of 4000 people killed annually, and it is precisely in 1994 that a peak was recorded with 4022 people killed on the different roads of the country. So, if the first two variables had followed the same trend to fall, while the number of killed, unfortunately, had continued its slight increase.
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