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A Three-Party Game of Institutional Resilience Versus Transition A

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A Three-Party Game of Institutional Resilience Versus Transition A A Three-Party Game of Institutional Resilience versus Transition A Model and Comparative History of China-Japan Revisited Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, Fudan University Masaki Nakabayashi, University of Tokyo July 1, 2017 Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 1 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Introduction Background of this paper Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 2 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Introduction Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 3 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited , and when shared beliefs about dispute resolution mechanism also collapse Conflict (oftentimes) becomes a natural companion of major institutional transformation Introduction Aoki (2001): institution as a self-sustained system of shared beliefs about how the game is played I Dispute resolution mechanism is a key ingredient for any institution I When shared beliefs break down, major disputes naturally emerge Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 4 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Conflict (oftentimes) becomes a natural companion of major institutional transformation Introduction Aoki (2001): institution as a self-sustained system of shared beliefs about how the game is played I Dispute resolution mechanism is a key ingredient for any institution I When shared beliefs break down, major disputes naturally emerge, and when shared beliefs about dispute resolution mechanism also collapse Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 4 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Introduction Aoki (2001): institution as a self-sustained system of shared beliefs about how the game is played I Dispute resolution mechanism is a key ingredient for any institution I When shared beliefs break down, major disputes naturally emerge, and when shared beliefs about dispute resolution mechanism also collapse Conflict (oftentimes) becomes a natural companion of major institutional transformation Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 4 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited I Among many other examples, Meiji Restoration in Japan v.s. Xinhai Revolution in China Introduction The Question I Why some institutional transition went about successfully, and why some transitions seemingly went bad? Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 5 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Introduction The Question I Why some institutional transition went about successfully, and why some transitions seemingly went bad? I Among many other examples, Meiji Restoration in Japan v.s. Xinhai Revolution in China Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 5 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Introduction Japan v.s China I Landmark transitions I Old long-lasting political institution abandoned I Japan: Office of military general (Shogunate) abolished I China: Thousands years of monarchy came to an end Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 6 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited I Both countries had a political institution with diversified political power I Japan: Office of Military General (Shogunate) - federation of hans I China: monarchy with the rise of gentry (partly in response to domestic instability) Introduction Japan v.s China I Similarity right before transition I Both countries faced external challenged to their sovereignty, together with domestic political instability as a result of weakened sovereignty Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 7 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Introduction Japan v.s China I Similarity right before transition I Both countries faced external challenged to their sovereignty, together with domestic political instability as a result of weakened sovereignty I Both countries had a political institution with diversified political power I Japan: Office of Military General (Shogunate) - federation of hans I China: monarchy with the rise of gentry (partly in response to domestic instability) Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 7 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Introduction Japan v.s China I Divergence after transition I Japan: a broad and far-reaching set of reforms implemented one after another, except for a 6 month major samurai rebellion, domestic environment remain by and large peaceful; at the end of the transition emerged oligarchy by a coalition of major hans; quickly rising to challenge China and Russia I China: continuous power change and prolonged domestic conflicts, with some reforms implemented, economic development restricted in pockets of urban areas with weak sovereign power, while vast rural areas left behind, not able to defend against Japanese invasion; at the end of the transition emerged a single party monopoly of power Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 8 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited , as well as pre-transition resilience I Nation may plunge into prolonged conflicts after transition triggered by a sovereignty crisis if nation began with I weak state capacity I large political differences among political forces that share the agenda of overthrowing the old guard I The eventual institution emerging after prolonged conflicts tends to feature a more concentrated political structure I Beyond China and Japan: I Glorious revolution, French revolution, Russian revolution, ... Introduction Three-Party Game I Three-party model to explain post-transition divergence after overthrowing the old guard Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 9 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited I Beyond China and Japan: I Glorious revolution, French revolution, Russian revolution, ... Introduction Three-Party Game I Three-party model to explain post-transition divergence after overthrowing the old guard, as well as pre-transition resilience I Nation may plunge into prolonged conflicts after transition triggered by a sovereignty crisis if nation began with I weak state capacity I large political differences among political forces that share the agenda of overthrowing the old guard I The eventual institution emerging after prolonged conflicts tends to feature a more concentrated political structure Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 9 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Introduction Three-Party Game I Three-party model to explain post-transition divergence after overthrowing the old guard, as well as pre-transition resilience I Nation may plunge into prolonged conflicts after transition triggered by a sovereignty crisis if nation began with I weak state capacity I large political differences among political forces that share the agenda of overthrowing the old guard I The eventual institution emerging after prolonged conflicts tends to feature a more concentrated political structure I Beyond China and Japan: I Glorious revolution, French revolution, Russian revolution, ... Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A Model andJuly 1, 2017 Comparative 9 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited Model The model: state capacity, political differences, conflicts, and sovereignty crisis Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University Jiahua Che, FudanA University Three-Party Masaki Game Nakabayashi, of Institutional University Resilience of Tokyo versus Transition A ModelJuly and 1, 2017 Comparative 10 / 38 History of China-Japan Revisited I Each may have some state
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