COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2020 ABOUT ASPI ASPI’s aim is to promote Australia’s security by contributing fresh ideas to strategic decision-making, and by helping to inform public discussion of strategic and defence issues. ASPI was established, and is partially funded, by the Australian Government as an independent, non-partisan policy institute. It is incorporated as a company, and is governed by a Council with broad membership. ASPI’s core values are collegiality, originality & innovation, quality & excellence and independence. ASPI’s publications—including this paper—are not intended in any way to express or reflect the views of the Australian Government. The opinions and recommendations in this paper are published by ASPI to promote public debate and understanding of strategic and defence issues. They reflect the personal views of the author(s) and should not be seen as representing the formal position of ASPI on any particular issue. ABOUT THE COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY CENTRE ASPI’s Counter-Terrorism Policy Centre (CTPC) was established in late 2015. The centre undertakes research across the spectrum of counterterrorism topics, facilitates dialogue and discussion amongst stakeholders, and provides advice to government, community and industry stakeholders, with a particular focus on what can be done to counter terrorism. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The editors would like to thank Steve Clark and James Dixon for their invaluable support, assistance and input in the production of this publication. We would also like to thank the authors for their hard work and dedication, as without them we could not have compiled the Counterterrorism yearbook 2020. Special thanks to Mike Burgess, the Director-General of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, for writing the preface to the 4th ASPI Counterterrorism yearbook. We thank everyone at ASPI for their support. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in relation to the subject matter covered. It is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering any form of professional or other advice or services. No person should rely on the contents of this publication without first obtaining advice from a qualified professional person. COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2020 Edited by Isaac Kfir and John Coyne © The Australian Strategic Policy Institute Limited 2020 ASPI This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Level 2, Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, 40 Macquarie Street mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, Barton ACT 2600 stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Australia Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. Notwithstanding the above, Tel + 61 2 6270 5100 Educational Institutions (including Schools, Independent Colleges, Universities, Fax + 61 2 6273 9566 and TAFEs) are granted permission to make copies of copyrighted works strictly for [email protected] educational purposes without explicit permission from ASPI and free of charge. www.aspi.org.au First published March 2020 www.aspistrategist.org.au Facebook/ASPI.org Published in Australia by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute @ASPI_org Contents PREFACE 04 INTRODUCTION 06 ISAAC KFIR AND JOHN COYNE COUNTERTERRORISM, COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM, SOCIAL COHESION: FEDERAL POLICIES ACROSS THE SPECTRUM 09 LINDA GEDDES CONTEMPORARY RIGHT-WING EXTREMISM IN AUSTRALIA 13 DR KRISTY CAMPION MANIFESTOS, MEMETIC MOBILISATION AND THE CHAN BOARDS IN THE CHRISTCHURCH SHOOTING 19 ELISE THOMAS PRISON RADICALISATION AND DERADICALISATION IN AUSTRALIA 23 ADRIAN CHERNEY YOUTH AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM 29 PETA LOWE AUSTRALIA’S PYRRHIC POLICING VICTORIES OVER TERRORISM 33 DR JOHN COYNE PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES OF PROSECUTING FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN AUSTRALIA 39 DR KERSTIN BRAUN SALAFIST-JIHADISM IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 43 PROFESSOR GREG BARTON AFTER MARAWI: LESSONS, ROOT CAUSES, THE FUTURE 53 JEREMY DOUGLAS AND NIKI ESSE DE LANG SYRIA 61 DR DARA CONDUIT YEMEN AND SALAFI-JIHADISM 65 ELISABETH KENDALL MENTAL HEALTH AND TERRORISM 69 DR EMILY CORNER NOT THE CYBERTERRORISM YOU THOUGHT 75 PROFESSOR LESLEY SEEBECK TERRORISM AS COMMUNICATIVE AND MISCOMMUNICATIVE VIOLENCE 81 DR ERIN KEARNS UNDERSTANDING WOMEN AND ISLAMIC STATE TERRORISM: WHERE ARE WE NOW? 87 SOFIA PATEL TERRORISM AND INNOVATION 93 DR ISAAC KFIR FORECASTING ACTIVE THREAT ATTACKS: A NEW CATEGORY OF RISK TO ANTICIPATE 99 DR JOSHUA SINAI ABOUT THE AUTHORS 105 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 111 03 COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2020 Preface MIKE BURGESS Director-General of Security, Australian Security Intelligence Organisation The security threats confronting Australia remain It is important to note that the threat of terrorism formidable and are continually evolving. at home will remain unacceptably high for the foreseeable future. Our world is becoming ever more complex, more uncertain and, as a result of globalisation, more The drivers that raised the national threat level in ‘connected’ than at any other time in history. 2014 have not diminished. The availability of extremist material online—both propaganda and terrorism The 2020 edition of ASPI’s Counterterrorism yearbook instructions—continues to shape the global trend considers three emerging themes that are matters of towards lower-capability attacks. concern in the current security environment—namely, the demise of the Islamic State (IS) ‘caliphate’ and Increasingly, threat groups are geographically dispersed what that means globally and regionally for Australia, and in some instances only connected through their the increased threat from right-wing extremism, online interactions. Enabled by the internet, social and the role of technology in propagating violent media and encrypted platforms, extremist networks extremist ideologies. are increasingly globalised, with operational support networks that span regions and borders. In 2020, the character of terrorism will continue to evolve and take on a more dispersed and Foreign fighters who travelled to Syria and Iraq to diversified face. join Islamist extremist groups will exploit skills and networks acquired in the conflict zone to pose a threat Violent Islamic extremism of the type embodied by to our interests in their home or third countries. IS and al-Qaeda and their offshoots will remain a principal concern. We continue to see vulnerable and impressionable young people at risk from being ensnared in the Tens of thousands of Islamic extremists travelled to the streams of hate being spread across the internet by Middle East to join al-Qaeda-aligned groups and IS, extremists of every ideology. including from countries that weren’t previously known as sources of Islamic extremists. The threat from right-wing extremists has increased in recent years. However, ASIO has been focused on While the IS ‘caliphate’ has been defeated, remnants the extreme right wing for many decades and has of IS will continue to be dangerous and will require maintained continuous and dedicated resources to ongoing attention. this area. The threat of terrorism in Australia is likely to remain The nature of this threat is evolving: extreme right-wing elevated for the foreseeable future. A variety of factors groups are more organised and security conscious influence the domestic security environment, including than before. offshore groups, aspirational and prevented travellers to conflict zones, and possible returnees from Syria ASIO notes that the use of international online forums and Iraq. and spaces by the extreme right wing allows rapid and easy connections between extreme right-wing ASIO has previously assessed and stated publicly individuals globally. Some of these spaces have created that the threat posed by terrorism in Australia has extremely toxic peer environments in which acts of plateaued at an unacceptable level. This is sometimes violence based on extreme right-wing ideologies are misunderstood as meaning that the threat has encouraged, glorified and promoted. simply plateaued. PREFACE Despite the best efforts of governments here and abroad to manage terrorists who have been jailed for their offences, extremist ideologies run very deep. The number of terrorism offenders scheduled for release from Australian prisons will increase over the next five years. These individuals may be held in a position of greater standing among their peers following release, which could be leveraged to recruit others towards an ideology supportive of violence. It will be important to remain constantly alert to the enduring power and attraction of extremist messaging to those vulnerable to radicalisation. This is a complex problem to solve, but it does reinforce the need to remain vigilant about the reach and the strength of extremist messaging. We cannot afford to become complacent about the potential threat posed by terrorists after their release from prison. Whatever the motivation of terrorists, whatever the method planned, they will continue to be creative in evolving their methods in response to both our investigative efforts and protective security measures. The Counterterrorism yearbook 2020 explores a number of these concerns. And while I may not endorse every argument and opinion, I commend this publication as a valuable contribution to the public discourse on counterterrorism. Congratulations to ASPI on its fourth edition. 05 COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2020 Introduction ISAAC KFIR AND JOHN COYNE