DOCSLIB.ORG

ASPI Counterterrorism Yearbook 2020

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
ASPI Counterterrorism Yearbook 2020 COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2020 ABOUT ASPI ASPI’s aim is to promote Australia’s security by contributing fresh ideas to strategic decision-making, and by helping to inform public discussion of strategic and defence issues. ASPI was established, and is partially funded, by the Australian Government as an independent, non-partisan policy institute. It is incorporated as a company, and is governed by a Council with broad membership. ASPI’s core values are collegiality, originality & innovation, quality & excellence and independence. ASPI’s publications—including this paper—are not intended in any way to express or reflect the views of the Australian Government. The opinions and recommendations in this paper are published by ASPI to promote public debate and understanding of strategic and defence issues. They reflect the personal views of the author(s) and should not be seen as representing the formal position of ASPI on any particular issue. ABOUT THE COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY CENTRE ASPI’s Counter-Terrorism Policy Centre (CTPC) was established in late 2015. The centre undertakes research across the spectrum of counterterrorism topics, facilitates dialogue and discussion amongst stakeholders, and provides advice to government, community and industry stakeholders, with a particular focus on what can be done to counter terrorism. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The editors would like to thank Steve Clark and James Dixon for their invaluable support, assistance and input in the production of this publication. We would also like to thank the authors for their hard work and dedication, as without them we could not have compiled the Counterterrorism yearbook 2020. Special thanks to Mike Burgess, the Director-General of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, for writing the preface to the 4th ASPI Counterterrorism yearbook. We thank everyone at ASPI for their support. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in relation to the subject matter covered. It is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering any form of professional or other advice or services. No person should rely on the contents of this publication without first obtaining advice from a qualified professional person. COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2020 Edited by Isaac Kfir and John Coyne © The Australian Strategic Policy Institute Limited 2020 ASPI This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Level 2, Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, 40 Macquarie Street mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, Barton ACT 2600 stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Australia Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. Notwithstanding the above, Tel + 61 2 6270 5100 Educational Institutions (including Schools, Independent Colleges, Universities, Fax + 61 2 6273 9566 and TAFEs) are granted permission to make copies of copyrighted works strictly for [email protected] educational purposes without explicit permission from ASPI and free of charge. www.aspi.org.au First published March 2020 www.aspistrategist.org.au Facebook/ASPI.org Published in Australia by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute @ASPI_org Contents PREFACE 04 INTRODUCTION 06 ISAAC KFIR AND JOHN COYNE COUNTERTERRORISM, COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM, SOCIAL COHESION: FEDERAL POLICIES ACROSS THE SPECTRUM 09 LINDA GEDDES CONTEMPORARY RIGHT-WING EXTREMISM IN AUSTRALIA 13 DR KRISTY CAMPION MANIFESTOS, MEMETIC MOBILISATION AND THE CHAN BOARDS IN THE CHRISTCHURCH SHOOTING 19 ELISE THOMAS PRISON RADICALISATION AND DERADICALISATION IN AUSTRALIA 23 ADRIAN CHERNEY YOUTH AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM 29 PETA LOWE AUSTRALIA’S PYRRHIC POLICING VICTORIES OVER TERRORISM 33 DR JOHN COYNE PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES OF PROSECUTING FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN AUSTRALIA 39 DR KERSTIN BRAUN SALAFIST-JIHADISM IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 43 PROFESSOR GREG BARTON AFTER MARAWI: LESSONS, ROOT CAUSES, THE FUTURE 53 JEREMY DOUGLAS AND NIKI ESSE DE LANG SYRIA 61 DR DARA CONDUIT YEMEN AND SALAFI-JIHADISM 65 ELISABETH KENDALL MENTAL HEALTH AND TERRORISM 69 DR EMILY CORNER NOT THE CYBERTERRORISM YOU THOUGHT 75 PROFESSOR LESLEY SEEBECK TERRORISM AS COMMUNICATIVE AND MISCOMMUNICATIVE VIOLENCE 81 DR ERIN KEARNS UNDERSTANDING WOMEN AND ISLAMIC STATE TERRORISM: WHERE ARE WE NOW? 87 SOFIA PATEL TERRORISM AND INNOVATION 93 DR ISAAC KFIR FORECASTING ACTIVE THREAT ATTACKS: A NEW CATEGORY OF RISK TO ANTICIPATE 99 DR JOSHUA SINAI ABOUT THE AUTHORS 105 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 111 03 COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2020 Preface MIKE BURGESS Director-General of Security, Australian Security Intelligence Organisation The security threats confronting Australia remain It is important to note that the threat of terrorism formidable and are continually evolving. at home will remain unacceptably high for the foreseeable future. Our world is becoming ever more complex, more uncertain and, as a result of globalisation, more The drivers that raised the national threat level in ‘connected’ than at any other time in history. 2014 have not diminished. The availability of extremist material online—both propaganda and terrorism The 2020 edition of ASPI’s Counterterrorism yearbook instructions—continues to shape the global trend considers three emerging themes that are matters of towards lower-capability attacks. concern in the current security environment—namely, the demise of the Islamic State (IS) ‘caliphate’ and Increasingly, threat groups are geographically dispersed what that means globally and regionally for Australia, and in some instances only connected through their the increased threat from right-wing extremism, online interactions. Enabled by the internet, social and the role of technology in propagating violent media and encrypted platforms, extremist networks extremist ideologies. are increasingly globalised, with operational support networks that span regions and borders. In 2020, the character of terrorism will continue to evolve and take on a more dispersed and Foreign fighters who travelled to Syria and Iraq to diversified face. join Islamist extremist groups will exploit skills and networks acquired in the conflict zone to pose a threat Violent Islamic extremism of the type embodied by to our interests in their home or third countries. IS and al-Qaeda and their offshoots will remain a principal concern. We continue to see vulnerable and impressionable young people at risk from being ensnared in the Tens of thousands of Islamic extremists travelled to the streams of hate being spread across the internet by Middle East to join al-Qaeda-aligned groups and IS, extremists of every ideology. including from countries that weren’t previously known as sources of Islamic extremists. The threat from right-wing extremists has increased in recent years. However, ASIO has been focused on While the IS ‘caliphate’ has been defeated, remnants the extreme right wing for many decades and has of IS will continue to be dangerous and will require maintained continuous and dedicated resources to ongoing attention. this area. The threat of terrorism in Australia is likely to remain The nature of this threat is evolving: extreme right-wing elevated for the foreseeable future. A variety of factors groups are more organised and security conscious influence the domestic security environment, including than before. offshore groups, aspirational and prevented travellers to conflict zones, and possible returnees from Syria ASIO notes that the use of international online forums and Iraq. and spaces by the extreme right wing allows rapid and easy connections between extreme right-wing ASIO has previously assessed and stated publicly individuals globally. Some of these spaces have created that the threat posed by terrorism in Australia has extremely toxic peer environments in which acts of plateaued at an unacceptable level. This is sometimes violence based on extreme right-wing ideologies are misunderstood as meaning that the threat has encouraged, glorified and promoted. simply plateaued. PREFACE Despite the best efforts of governments here and abroad to manage terrorists who have been jailed for their offences, extremist ideologies run very deep. The number of terrorism offenders scheduled for release from Australian prisons will increase over the next five years. These individuals may be held in a position of greater standing among their peers following release, which could be leveraged to recruit others towards an ideology supportive of violence. It will be important to remain constantly alert to the enduring power and attraction of extremist messaging to those vulnerable to radicalisation. This is a complex problem to solve, but it does reinforce the need to remain vigilant about the reach and the strength of extremist messaging. We cannot afford to become complacent about the potential threat posed by terrorists after their release from prison. Whatever the motivation of terrorists, whatever the method planned, they will continue to be creative in evolving their methods in response to both our investigative efforts and protective security measures. The Counterterrorism yearbook 2020 explores a number of these concerns. And while I may not endorse every argument and opinion, I commend this publication as a valuable contribution to the public discourse on counterterrorism. Congratulations to ASPI on its fourth edition. 05 COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2020 Introduction ISAAC KFIR AND JOHN COYNE
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Australia: Extremism and Terrorism
    Australia: Extremism and Terrorism On March 17, 2021, authorities arrested brothers Aran and Ari Sherani, ages 19 and 20 respectively, during counterterrorism raids in Melbourne after Aran allegedly purchased a knife in preparation for a terrorist attack. Police alleged Aran was influenced by ISIS. Both brothers were charged in relation to a February 21 attempted attack in Humevale, in which a fire was lit in bushland outside of Melbourne. Aran Shirani also faces charges in relation to a March 9 assault that left one injured. Authorities allege Aran Shirani radicalized online and then radicalized his older brother. (Sources: Guardian, 9News, Australian Press Association) On December 17, 2020, 22-year-old Raghe Abdi threated Australian police officers with a knife on a highway outside of Brisbane and was then shot dead by the authorities. According to police, Abdi was influenced by ISIS. That same day, 87-year-old Maurice Anthill and his 86-year-old wife Zoe were found dead inside their home in Brisbane, where Abdi was believed to have been. Police Commissioner Katarina Carroll Abdi said that though Abdi was a known extremist, the suspect had acted alone, and declared the deaths a terrorism incident. Abdi was arrested on suspicion of joining extremist groups while he attempted to board a flight to Somalia in May 2019. He was released due to lack of evidence, though his passport was canceled. Abdi was again charged in June 2019 on other offenses, including not providing his cellphone passcode to investigators but was freed on bail and given a GPS tracking device to wear.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Terrorist Fighters?
    TO CATCH THE BOOMERANG? SHOULD AUSTRALIA EXTRADITE, REPATRIATE AND PROSECUTE THEIR “RETURNING” FOREIGN TERRORIST FIGHTERS? Lieutenant-Commander Jacqueline Swinton JCSP 46 PCEMI 46 Solo Flight Solo Flight Disclaimer Avertissement Opinions expressed remain those of the author and do Les opinons exprimées n’engagent que leurs auteurs not represent Department of National Defence or et ne reflètent aucunement des politiques du Ministère Canadian Forces policy. This paper may not be used de la Défense nationale ou des Forces canadiennes. Ce without written permission. papier ne peut être reproduit sans autorisation écrite. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by © Sa Majesté la Reine du Chef du Canada, représentée par le the Minister of National Defence, 2020. ministre de la Défense nationale, 2020. CANADIAN FORCES COLLEGE – COLLÈGE DES FORCES CANADIENNES JCSP 46 – PCEMI 46 2019 – 2020 SOLO FLIGHT TO CATCH THE BOOMERANG? SHOULD AUSTRALIA EXTRADITE, REPATRIATE AND PROSECUTE THEIR “RETURNING” FOREIGN TERRORIST FIGHTERS? By Lieutenant-Commander Jacqueline Swinton “This paper was written by a candidate “La présente étude a été rédigée par un attending the Canadian Forces College in stagiaire du Collège des Forces canadiennes fulfilment of one of the requirements of the pour satisfaire à l'une des exigences du cours. Course of Studies. The paper is a L'étude est un document qui se rapporte au scholastic document, and thus contains cours et contient donc des faits et des opinions facts and opinions which the author alone que seul l'auteur considère appropriés et considered appropriate and correct for the convenables au sujet. Elle ne reflète pas subject.
    [Show full text]
  • Guilty When Innocent. Australian Government's Resistance To
    social sciences $€ £ ¥ Article Guilty When Innocent. Australian Government’s Resistance to Bringing Home Wives and Children of Islamic State Fighters Joumanah El-Matrah 1,* and Kamalle Dabboussy 2 1 School of Social Sciences, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia 2 Western Sydney Migrant Resource Centre, Liverpool, NSW 2170, Australia; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Currently there are 20 Australian women and 47 children being held in the Al-Roj camp in Northern Syria, who are the family members of Islamic State fighters. The Australian government argues that it is both unsafe for government officials to rescue those held in the camp and unsafe for Australia to repatriate these women and children. This security rhetoric is commonly understood as Australia’s abandonment of its citizens and their entitlements to protection and repatriation. This paper argues that the Australian government is condemning its citizens to a condition of statelessness and displacement, simulating the following conditions under which refugees and asylum seekers are forced to live: murder, violence, deprivation of adequate food and shelter, disease, and the potential hazards of the COVID-19 infection. Rendering its citizens to a condition of statelessness and displacement constitutes both punishment meted out on those deemed guilty by their presence in Syria, and provides the Australian government the opportunity to revoke the citizenship of women and children. Three Australian women who travelled to Syria have already been stripped of their Australian citizenship. This paper explores the conditions and methods by which the Australian Citation: El-Matrah, Joumanah, and government has erased the entitlements, protections and certainty of citizenship for Australian Kamalle Dabboussy.
    [Show full text]
  • Gen Y Jihadists: Preventing Radicalisation in Australia
    STRATEGY Gen Y jihadists Preventing radicalisation in Australia Anthony Bergin, Michael Clifford, David Connery, Tobias Feakin, Ken Gleiman, Stephanie Huang, Grace Hutchison, Peter Jennings, David Lang, Amelia Long, Clare Murphy, Simone Roworth, Rosalyn Turner, Samina Yasmeen About ASPI June 2015 ASPI’s aim is to promote Australia’s security by contributing fresh ideas to strategic decision‑making, and by helping to inform public discussion of strategic and defence issues. ASPI was established, and is partially funded, by the Australian Government as an independent, non‑partisan policy institute. It is incorporated as a company, and is governed by a Council with broad membership. ASPI’s core values are collegiality, originality & innovation, quality & excellence and independence. ASPI’s publications—including this paper—are not intended in any way to express or reflect the views of the Australian Government. The opinions and recommendations in this paper are published by ASPI to promote public debate and understanding of strategic and defence issues. They reflect the personal views of the author(s) and should not be seen as representing the formal position of ASPI on any particular issue. Important disclaimer This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in relation to the subject matter covered. It is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering any form of professional or other advice or services. No person should rely on the contents of this publication without first obtaining advice from a qualified professional person. Cover image: Armed Australian Federal Police officers are seen after new security directives are instigated at Parliament House in Canberra, 23 February 2015.
    [Show full text]
  • Countering Daesh Extremism: European and Asian Responses Countering Daesh Extremism: European And
    02/2016 PANORAMA INSIGHTS INTO ASIAN AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS COUNTERING DAESH EXTREMISM EUROPEAN AND ASIAN RESPONSES K o n r a d A d e n a u e r S t i f t u n g Panorama InsIghts Into asIan and euroPean affaIrs Countering daesh extremism Panorama: Insights into Asian and European Affairs is a series of occasional papers published by the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung’s “Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia and the Pacific/Singapore”. This is a special edition published in collaboration with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University. © 2016 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Singapore Editors: Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Professor Rohan Gunaratna, Megha Sarmah, Patrick Rueppel Publishers: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Ltd 36 Bukit Pasoh Road Singapore 089848 Registration Number: 201228783N Tel: (65) 6603-6160 Tel: (65) 6227-8343 Email: [email protected] Website: www.kas.de/singapore International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Nanyang Technological University, Block S4, Level B4 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying or recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission from the publisher. Manuscript offers, review copies, exchange journals, and requests for subscription are to be sent to the editors. The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, S.
    [Show full text]
  • Extremism & Counter-Extremism Overview Radicalization And
    Australia: Extremism & Counter-Extremism On April 24, 2020, Sydney authorities arrest a man in Mount Lewis. The next day, a Parmatta court charges the suspect for allegedly fighting for Jabhat Fateh al-Sham—a group previously linked to al-Qaeda and formerly known as al-Nusra Front—in Syria from 2012 through 2013. The charges include two counts of engaging in hostile activity in a foreign state and seven counts of publishing false or misleading material to obtain property. (Source: Guardian [1]) Overview Australia faces an increasing threat from the radicalization of Australians drawn to Islamist ideology. More than 150 Australians have joined foreign jihadist groups. The Soufan Group said in its December 2015 report that unofficially 255 Australians have gone to fight in Syria and Iraq. At least 20 Australian foreign fighters have returned home, raising government concerns that Australians radicalized abroad will return to carry out domestic terrorism. (Sources: The Soufan Group [2], Time [3], Australian Broadcasting Corporation [4], United Nations [5]) The Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) has noted an increase in violent activity among left- and right- wing extremist groups in Australia. During the agency’s first “annual threat assessment” speech on February 24, 2020, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess warned that far-right extremism was growing in the country and cited the activities of far-right cells in suburban Australia. Additionally, the conflict in Ukraine has reportedly attracted several fighters from Australia who have been linked to white supremacist and ultra-nationalist movements. (Sources: ASIO [6], Canberra Times [7], Australian Broadcasting Corporation [8]) The December 2014 hostage crisis at a Sydney café was part of a string of domestic extremist-related events.
    [Show full text]
  • The Roles of Women in Supporting and Opposing Violent Extremism: Understanding Gender and Terrorism in Contemporary Australia
    THE ROLES OF WOMEN IN SUPPORTING AND OPPOSING VIOLENT EXTREMISM: UNDERSTANDING GENDER AND TERRORISM IN CONTEMPORARY AUSTRALIA MARCH 2018 MICHELE GROSSMAN (DEAKIN UNIVERSITY) SUSAN CARLAND (MONASH UNIVERSITY) HUSSEIN TAHIRI (VICTORIA POLICE) ANDREW ZAMMIT (MONASH UNIVERSITY) CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4 A NOTE ON READING THE TEXT: GLOSSARY AND ABBREVIATIONS 5 INTRODUCTION 6 METHODOLOGY 8 CHAPTER 1 WOMEN AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM: REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE 10 Background 11 Gender and terrorism: biases and blindspots 12 Gendered patterns of experience: women and Islamic State 15 Women preventing violent extremism 22 Women and Muslim community attitudes to countering violent extremism 24 Conclusion 25 CHAPTER 2 ROLES OF WOMEN IN SUPPORTING VIOLENT EXTREMISM 26 A note on identifiers for participant quotations 28 Push: what drives women to radicalise to violence? 29 Cherchez l’homme? the role of male influence 36 Pull: what attracts women to violent extremism? 38 Women’s roles as influencers, enablers, supporters and violent actors 45 Direct actors versus violent actors 50 Women, social media and social influence 51 CHAPTER 3 WOMEN RADICALISING TO VIOLENCE: AN AUSTRALIAN SAMPLE 56 Approach to analysis 57 Demographics 58 Settings and influences 59 Roles in violent extremist activities 60 Discussion 62 CHAPTER 4 AN ANALYSIS OF AUSTRALIAN WOMEN’S ISLAMIC STATE TWITTER ACCOUNTS: THREE CASE STUDIES 62 Capturing Twitter content 64 Authenticating captured Twitter content 68 Context for captured Twitter content 68 Frequency and type of Twitter data 70 Thematic
    [Show full text]
  • Radicalization: Impact on Muslim Minority Communities in Southern Philippines 149 Mussolini Sinsuat Lidasan
    01/2015 PANORAMA INSIGHTS INTO ASIAN AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS FROM THE DESERT TO WORLD CITIES THE NEW TERRORISM K o n r a d A d e n a u e r S t i f t u n g Panorama: Insights into Asian and European Affairs is a series of occasional papers published by the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung’s “Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia/Singapore”. © 2015 Copyright by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Singapore All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying or recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission from the publisher. Editor: Dr. Wilhelm Hofmeister Sub-editor: Megha Sarmah Publisher: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Ltd 34/36 Bukit Pasoh Road Singapore 089848 Registration Number: 201228783N Tel: (65) 6227-2001 Tel: (65) 6227-8343 Email: [email protected] Website: http//:www.kas.de/singapore Manuscript offers, review copies, exchange journals, and requests for subscription are to be sent to the editors. The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Cover photograph by ©iStock.com/Simon Podgorsek Design, Layout and Typeset: Select Books Pte Ltd 65A, Jalan Tenteram #02-06, St Michael’s Industrial Estate Singapore 328958 Website: www.selectbooks.com.sg PANORAMA INSIGHTS INTO ASIAN AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS From the Desert to World Cities The New Terrorism CONTENTS PREFACE 7 The Rise of the Islamic State: Terrorism’s New Face in Asia 9 Rohan Gunaratna Foreign Fighters and Returning Jihadis — The Biggest Terrorist Threat to Security in Europe? 21 Kristina Eichhorst Western Jihadists in Syria and Iraq: A Preliminary Overview 29 Peter R.
    [Show full text]