The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Dr. David Khemakhem Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center Scott Energy Innovation Institute Pittsburgh, May 3, 2013
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. Energy Outlook Model
100 countries
15 demand sectors
20 fuel types
technology & policy
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy CO2 Policies 2030
CO2 “Proxy” Cost ~ 60 $/ton
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy CO2 Policies 2040
CO2 “Proxy” Cost < 10 $/ton
~ 15 $/ton
~ 20 $/ton
~ 80 $/ton
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Global fundamentals Population Trends Impacts Energy Use
Population Fertility Rate* Global Demographics* Billion Children per Woman Billion 9 8 OECD 9 Africa 7 China Age 65+ Other Non OECD India 6 Southeast Asia 6 Latin America 6 5 Africa 4 Age 15-64
India 3 3 3
China 2
1 OECD Age 0-14 0 0 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 * Source: World Bank & United Nations
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand
GDP Energy Demand Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs 125 1250
2010-2040 AAGR % 2010-2040 AAGR % World Other World 100 3.9% 1000 2.8% Non 1.0% Energy OECD Saved ~500
75 China 5.6% 750
50 500 Other 1.8% OECD
25 250
United States 2.3% 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Tale of Two Worlds
Non OECD OECD Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 500 500 Other Renewables
Biomass 400 400 Nuclear
Coal 300 300
200 Gas 200
100 100 Oil
0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
225 0.8% 2040 Average Growth / Yr. 200 1.7% 2010 - 2040
175 2010 1.0% 150 -0.1% 125
100
75 2.4% 0.4% 50 5.8% 1.8% 25
0 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Hydro / Geo Biofuels
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation Leads Growth
Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 300 2040
2025 250 Electricity Demand
200 2010
150
100
50
0 Electricity Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Generation
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Residential/commercial Household Growth Drives Residential Demand
2040 Million Households
750
2040 600
450 2010
300
150
0 Europe N. America Other China Africa India Latin Russia/ Middle Other Non OECD OECD America Caspian East OECD Residential/Commercial Outlook
By Sector Residential Energy Intensity Fuel Demand Quadrillion BTUs Million BTUs per Person Quadrillion BTUs 150 35 150
North America 30 125 Commercial 125 Other Electricity 25 100 100 Europe OECD 20 75 Japan 75 15 Biomass Residential China 50 50 10 Coal Gas 25 25 5 India
Oil 0 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Industrial Industry Energy Demand Increases
Quadrillion BTUs
250
Paint
200 Fertilizer Plastics
150
Chemicals Automobiles Textiles 100 Steel Manufacturing & Industry Natural Gas Coal 50 Liquid Fuels Energy Industry Lubricants Asphalt Other 0 Agriculture 1990 2015 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Industrial Energy Demand
By Fuel By Region Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
250 250
Market Heat Electricity Rest of 200 200 Non OECD Renewables
Coal 150 150 India
100 Gas 100 China
50 50 Oil OECD
0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Electricity generation Electricity Demand by Region
Non OECD OECD Thousand TWh Thousand TWh 25 25
Other Non OECD
20 Russia/Caspian 20 Southeast Asia
15 15 Middle East Africa Other OECD 10 10 India Europe OECD
5 5 China North America
0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region
Electricity Generation Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040 Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 300 120
Renewables 250 90 Renewables
Nuclear 200 Non OECD Nuclear 60
150 Gas Coal 30 100 Coal 0 50 Oil OECDGas
0 Oil -30 2000 2020 2040 Non OECD OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves
By Generation Global Capacity Utilized k TWh GW
35 1200
30 1000 Gas 25 800 20 Coal 600 15
400 10 Nuclear
Wind & Solar 5 200 Other Renewables 0 Oil 0 2000 2020 2040 Nuclear Wind Solar
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Transportation Transportation Demand
Sector Demand Demand by Region MBDOE MBDOE 75 30 Rail ‘40 25 60 Marine
Aviation ‘25 20 45
15 Heavy Duty ‘10 30 10
15 Light Duty 5
0 0 2000 2020 2040 AP NA Europe LA ME ROW
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles
500 2010
400 Advanced* CNG
300 LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 200
100
0 North Europe Other China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD OECD America OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles
500 2025
400 Advanced* CNG
300 LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 200
100
0 North Europe Other China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD OECD America OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles
500 2040
400 PHV/EV Full Hybrid CNG 300 LPG Diesel Conv Mogas Conv 200
100
0 North Europe Other China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD OECD America OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency
Annual New Car Sales by Type Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains Million Cars Miles per Gallon 47 MPG 150 Elec/PHV 20 Full Hybrid 125 Natural Gas Hybrid Conv. Diesel 15 Conv. Gasoline 100
Downsizing 75 10
50 Body & Accessories 5 Average 27 MPG 25 Powertrain
0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Heavy Duty Transportation Efficiency
New Truck Efficiency Efficiency Impact % Improvement, 2010-2040 MBDOE 75 45 Truck Size Demand w/o Efficiency Demand 60
30 45 Hybrid Body
30 Powertrain Logistics & 15 Congestion
15 Body
Powertrain 0 0 '10-'25 '25-'40Regional Other 2010 2025 2040 Technology Impact
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Transportation Fuel Mix
Fuel Demand Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040 MBDOE MBDOE 75 15 Non OECD Other OECD Natural Gas 12 60 Fuel Oil Jet Fuel 9
45 Biodiesel 6
3 30 Diesel 0
Ethanol 15 -3 Gasoline -6 0 Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Natural Other 2000 2020 2040 Gas
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Gas Into Transportation
By Sector 2040 by Region BCFD BCFD 18 10
Rail 15 8
12 Marine 6
9
4 6 Heavy Duty
3 2
Light 0 Duty 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 AP NA LA ME EU RC AF
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Supply Remaining Oil Resource
Crude and Condensate (BBO) ~1,000 Source: IEA
~1,100
~1,100
~100 Russia/Caspian
Europe North America ~650 ~150 Middle East Asia Pacific ~200 ~4,300 Africa Latin America
Global
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Liquids Supply
Supply by Type Resource* MBDOE TBO 120 Biofuels 6 Other Liquids
100 5 NGLs
Oil Sands 80 Tight Oil 4 Remaining Deepwater Resource
60 3
40 2 Conventional Crude & Condensate Cumulative 20 1 Production * Source: IEA* Energy Outlook 2011 World 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Global Gas Resource
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
6.2
4.3 1.6 4.9
Europe Russia/ OECD Caspian* North America 4.5
1000 TCF Middle East 30 25 2.6 2.5 Asia Pacific 20 Unconventional 15 Africa 10 Latin America Conventional 5 Over 200 years coverage at 0 current demand World
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts
Global Gas Demand Global Gas Supply BCFD BCFD 600 600
Rest of World 500 ROW 500 Afr. Unconventional LA ME North America Other Unconventional 400 India 400 China AP 300 300
Rest of World 200 200 Conventional
100 100
North America Conventional 0 0 2010 AP ME LA AFR ROW 2040 2010 2025 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Growth in Unconventional Production
Production by Type Production by Region BCFD BCFD 200 200
Rest of World 150 150
Asia Pacific
100 Shale 100
50 50 Americas
Coal Bed Methane
Tight 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy North America Energy Balance
Quadrillion BTUs
50 Oil Net Exports
40 Net Imports
30
20 Regional Supply
10 Total Energy Balance 0 Net Exports 2010 2025 2040 125 Net Imports 50 Gas 100 Net Exports 40 75 Regional Supply 30 50 20 Regional Supply 25 10 0 0 2010 2025 2040 2010 2025 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Asia Pacific Energy Balance
Quadrillion BTUs
90 Oil
60 Net Imports
30
Domestic Supply Total Energy Balance 0 2010 2025 2040 350 300 90 Gas 250 Net Imports 200 60 150 Domestic Supply 100 30 50 0 0 2010 2025 2040 2010 2025 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Bio for David Khemakhem (k’mak’m)
David Khemakhem is an Energy and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil. He is a member of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department, where he is responsible for assessing energy trends, emerging energy technologies, and related market and public policy issues around the world. He is one of the principal contributors to ExxonMobil’s long-term global Energy Outlook. He is also active in communicating ExxonMobil’s view of the future of energy to a wide variety of audiences. David has worked with Exxon then ExxonMobil since 1997 in numerous technical and management assignments covering activities in the United States and around the world. He started his career with Exxon Production Research Company in the area of Wellbore Design and eventually became Team Lead for the Well Integrity Group at ExxonMobil Upstream Research. In 2001, he transferred to ExxonMobil Production Company as a Subsurface Engineer overseeing completion and workover operations in Colorado, Wyoming, California and South Texas. In 2003, David relocated to Qatar, where he spent six years in a variety of assignments, including Drilling and Completions Engineering Manager. In this role he led a team of engineers working on RasGas’s 14 drilling rigs during the development of the North Field. In 2009, David transferred back to Houston, joining the ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company as Well Performance Manager and then in 2010, he became the Unconventional Gas Recovery Manager. The following year, in 2011, David moved to ExxonMobil Headquarters to join the Corporate Strategic Planning team where he is helping in the Text in Box: Short Bio development of the Energy Outlook for 2013 and beyond. David holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Minnesota.