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The Outlook for Energy: a View to 2040

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The Outlook for Energy: a View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Dr. David Khemakhem Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center Scott Energy Innovation Institute Pittsburgh, May 3, 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. Energy Outlook Model 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types technology & policy ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy CO2 Policies 2030 CO2 “Proxy” Cost ~ 60 $/ton ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy CO2 Policies 2040 CO2 “Proxy” Cost < 10 $/ton ~ 15 $/ton ~ 20 $/ton ~ 80 $/ton ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Global fundamentals Population Trends Impacts Energy Use Population Fertility Rate* Global Demographics* Billion Children per Woman Billion 9 8 OECD 9 Africa 7 China Age 65+ Other Non OECD India 6 Southeast Asia 6 Latin America 6 5 Africa 4 Age 15-64 India 3 3 3 China 2 1 OECD Age 0-14 0 0 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 * Source: World Bank & United Nations ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Energy Demand Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs 125 1250 2010-2040 AAGR % 2010-2040 AAGR % World Other World 100 3.9% 1000 2.8% Non 1.0% Energy OECD Saved ~500 75 China 5.6% 750 50 500 Other 1.8% OECD 25 250 United States 2.3% 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Tale of Two Worlds Non OECD OECD Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 500 500 Other Renewables Biomass 400 400 Nuclear Coal 300 300 200 Gas 200 100 100 Oil 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 225 0.8% 2040 Average Growth / Yr. 200 1.7% 2010 - 2040 175 2010 1.0% 150 -0.1% 125 100 75 2.4% 0.4% 50 5.8% 1.8% 25 0 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Hydro / Geo Biofuels ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 300 2040 2025 250 Electricity Demand 200 2010 150 100 50 0 Electricity Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Generation ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Residential/commercial Household Growth Drives Residential Demand 2040 Million Households 750 2040 600 450 2010 300 150 0 Europe N. America Other China Africa India Latin Russia/ Middle Other Non OECD OECD America Caspian East OECD Residential/Commercial Outlook By Sector Residential Energy Intensity Fuel Demand Quadrillion BTUs Million BTUs per Person Quadrillion BTUs 150 35 150 North America 30 125 Commercial 125 Other Electricity 25 100 100 Europe OECD 20 75 Japan 75 15 Biomass Residential China 50 50 10 Coal Gas 25 25 5 India Oil 0 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Industrial Industry Energy Demand Increases Quadrillion BTUs 250 Paint 200 Fertilizer Plastics 150 Chemicals Automobiles Textiles 100 Steel Manufacturing & Industry Natural Gas Coal 50 Liquid Fuels Energy Industry Lubricants Asphalt Other 0 Agriculture 1990 2015 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Industrial Energy Demand By Fuel By Region Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 250 250 Market Heat Electricity Rest of 200 200 Non OECD Renewables Coal 150 150 India 100 Gas 100 China 50 50 Oil OECD 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Electricity generation Electricity Demand by Region Non OECD OECD Thousand TWh Thousand TWh 25 25 Other Non OECD 20 Russia/Caspian 20 Southeast Asia 15 15 Middle East Africa Other OECD 10 10 India Europe OECD 5 5 China North America 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region Electricity Generation Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040 Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 300 120 Renewables 250 90 Renewables Nuclear 200 Non OECD Nuclear 60 150 Gas Coal 30 100 Coal 0 50 Oil OECDGas 0 Oil -30 2000 2020 2040 Non OECD OECD ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves By Generation Global Capacity Utilized k TWh GW 35 1200 30 1000 Gas 25 800 20 Coal 600 15 400 10 Nuclear Wind & Solar 5 200 Other Renewables 0 Oil 0 2000 2020 2040 Nuclear Wind Solar ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Transportation Transportation Demand Sector Demand Demand by Region MBDOE MBDOE 75 30 Rail ‘40 25 60 Marine Aviation ‘25 20 45 15 Heavy Duty ‘10 30 10 15 Light Duty 5 0 0 2000 2020 2040 AP NA Europe LA ME ROW ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 500 2010 400 Advanced* CNG 300 LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 200 100 0 North Europe Other China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD OECD America OECD ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 500 2025 400 Advanced* CNG 300 LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 200 100 0 North Europe Other China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD OECD America OECD ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 500 2040 400 PHV/EV Full Hybrid CNG 300 LPG Diesel Conv Mogas Conv 200 100 0 North Europe Other China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD OECD America OECD ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency Annual New Car Sales by Type Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains Million Cars Miles per Gallon 47 MPG 150 Elec/PHV 20 Full Hybrid 125 Natural Gas Hybrid Conv. Diesel 15 Conv. Gasoline 100 Downsizing 75 10 50 Body & Accessories 5 Average 27 MPG 25 Powertrain 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Heavy Duty Transportation Efficiency New Truck Efficiency Efficiency Impact % Improvement, 2010-2040 MBDOE 75 45 Truck Size Demand w/o Efficiency Demand 60 30 45 Hybrid Body 30 Powertrain Logistics & 15 Congestion 15 Body Powertrain 0 0 '10-'25 '25-'40Regional Other 2010 2025 2040 Technology Impact ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Transportation Fuel Mix Fuel Demand Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040 MBDOE MBDOE 75 15 Non OECD Other OECD Natural Gas 12 60 Fuel Oil Jet Fuel 9 45 Biodiesel 6 3 30 Diesel 0 Ethanol 15 -3 Gasoline -6 0 Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Natural Other 2000 2020 2040 Gas ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Gas Into Transportation By Sector 2040 by Region BCFD BCFD 18 10 Rail 15 8 12 Marine 6 9 4 6 Heavy Duty 3 2 Light 0 Duty 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 AP NA LA ME EU RC AF ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Supply Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO) ~1,000 Source: IEA ~1,100 ~1,100 ~100 Russia/Caspian Europe North America ~650 ~150 Middle East Asia Pacific ~200 ~4,300 Africa Latin America Global ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Liquids Supply Supply by Type Resource* MBDOE TBO 120 Biofuels 6 Other Liquids 100 5 NGLs Oil Sands 80 Tight Oil 4 Remaining Deepwater Resource 60 3 40 2 Conventional Crude & Condensate Cumulative 20 1 Production * Source: IEA* Energy Outlook 2011 World 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Global Gas Resource Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD 6.2 4.3 1.6 4.9 Europe Russia/ OECD Caspian* North America 4.5 1000 TCF Middle East 30 25 2.6 2.5 Asia Pacific 20 Unconventional 15 Africa 10 Latin America Conventional 5 Over 200 years coverage at 0 current demand World ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts Global Gas Demand Global Gas Supply BCFD BCFD 600 600 Rest of World 500 ROW 500 Afr. Unconventional LA ME North America Other Unconventional 400 India 400 China AP 300 300 Rest of World 200 200 Conventional 100 100 North America Conventional 0 0 2010 AP ME LA AFR ROW 2040 2010 2025 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Growth in Unconventional Production Production by Type Production by Region BCFD BCFD 200 200 Rest of World 150 150 Asia Pacific 100 Shale 100 50 50 Americas Coal Bed Methane Tight 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy North America Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs 50 Oil Net Exports 40 Net Imports 30 20 Regional Supply 10 Total Energy Balance 0 Net Exports 2010 2025 2040 125 Net Imports 50 Gas 100 Net Exports 40 75 Regional Supply 30 50 20 Regional Supply 25 10 0 0 2010 2025 2040 2010 2025 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Asia Pacific Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs 90 Oil 60 Net Imports 30 Domestic Supply Total Energy Balance 0 2010 2025 2040 350 300 90 Gas 250 Net Imports 200 60 150 Domestic Supply 100 30 50 0 0 2010 2025 2040 2010 2025 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Conclusions ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Bio for David Khemakhem (k’mak’m) David Khemakhem is an Energy and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil.
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