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Burma's 2010 Elections: Implications of the New Burma’s 2010 Elections: Implications of the New Constitution and Election Laws (name redacted) Specialist in Asian Affairs June 4, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov R41218 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Burma’s 2010 Elections: Implications of the New Constitution and Election Laws Summary On an undisclosed date in 2010, Burma plans to hold its first parliamentary elections in 20 years. The elections are to be held under a new constitution, supposedly approved in a national referendum held in 2008 in the immediate aftermath of the widespread destruction caused by Cyclone Nargis. The official results of the constitutional referendum are widely seen as fraudulent, but despite significant domestic and international opposition, Burma’s ruling military junta—the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)—has insisted on conducting the polls as part of what it calls a path to “disciplined democracy.” On March 9, 2010, the SPDC released five new laws for the pending parliamentary elections. Three of the laws are about the three main types of parliaments stipulated in the constitution—the two houses of the national parliament (Pyidaungsu Hluttaw) and the Regional or State parliaments. The fourth law—the Political Parties Registration Law—sets conditions for the registration and operation of political parties in Burma; the fifth law establishes a Union Election Commission to supervise the parliamentary elections and political parties. The new laws were quickly subjected to sharp criticism, both domestically and overseas. In particular, the law on political parties was widely denounced for placing unreasonable restrictions on the participation of many opposition political leaders and Burma’s Buddhist monks and nuns. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Philip J. Crowley said the Political Parties Registration Law “makes a mockery of the democratic process and ensures that the upcoming elections will be devoid of credibility.” There have also been objections to the terms of the Union Election Commission Law and the 17 people subsequently appointed to the commission by the SPDC. In late September 2009, the Obama Administration adopted a new policy on Burma. The policy keeps most of the elements of the Burma policies of the last two administrations in place, but adds a willingness to engage in direct dialogue with the SPDC on how to promote democracy and human rights in Burma, and greater cooperation on international security issues, such as counternarcotics efforts and nuclear nonproliferation. The Obama Administration accepts that little progress has been made during the seven months that the new policy has been in effect, but has indicated that it will remain in place for now. There are signs of concern among Members of Congress about the dearth of progress in Burma towards democracy and greater respect for human rights. Nine Senators sent a letter to President Obama on March 26, 2010, urging the imposition of additional economic sanctions on the SPDC in light of “a set of profoundly troubling election laws.” However, another Senator perceives “several substantive gestures” on the part of the SPDC, and suggests it is time to increase engagement with the Burmese government. The 111th Congress has already taken action with respect to Burma, such as renewing the Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act of 2003. If it were to determine that additional actions should be taken, there are several alternatives available. Among those alternatives are holding hearings or seminars on the political situation in Burma, pushing the Obama Administration to implement existing sanctions on Burma more vigorously, and adding or removing existing sanctions. This report will be updated as circumstances warrant. Congressional Research Service Burma’s 2010 Elections: Implications of the New Constitution and Election Laws Contents Overview ....................................................................................................................................1 The Road to the 2010 Elections...................................................................................................2 The 1990 Parliamentary Elections ...............................................................................................2 The Constitutional Referendum of 2008......................................................................................3 Key Features of the 2008 Constitution.........................................................................................5 The 2010 Elections .....................................................................................................................6 The Election Laws and Regulations.......................................................................................7 The Political Parties Registration Law.............................................................................7 Union Election Commission Law....................................................................................8 The Hluttaw Election Laws.............................................................................................8 The Election Commission .....................................................................................................9 The Response in Burma ........................................................................................................9 Burmese Comments on the Election Laws.......................................................................9 Political Party Registration............................................................................................10 The International Response .................................................................................................13 The SPDC’s Response ........................................................................................................14 The Obama Administration’s Burma Policy ..............................................................................15 Congressional Concerns............................................................................................................17 Steps Taken ........................................................................................................................18 Pending Resolutions............................................................................................................18 Possible Additional Congressional Actions on Burma .........................................................19 Figures Tables Table 1. Status of Political Parties in Burma as of June 2, 2010 .................................................11 Appendixes Appendix. Map of Burma (Myanmar) .......................................................................................21 Contacts Author Contact Information ......................................................................................................22 Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................22 Congressional Research Service Burma’s 2010 Elections: Implications of the New Constitution and Election Laws Overview On an undisclosed date in 2010, Burma (Myanmar) is to hold its first national parliamentary elections since the ill-fated vote in 1990.1 Depending on the manner in which the election is held and the outcome of the vote, Burma’s prospects for a more democratic government may be at stake. The current ruling military junta—the State Development and Peace Council (SPDC)—is promoting the 2010 election as the fifth step in what it calls a seven-step roadmap to “disciplined democracy.” Burma’s leading opposition groups are highly skeptical of the SPDC and the 2010 elections, concerned that the SPDC will use a new constitution promulgated in 2008 and legal restrictions placed on participation in the 2010 elections to maintain its stranglehold on power. Burma’s 2010 elections might also pose a challenge to the Obama Administration’s policy towards Burma. In September 2009, the U.S. State Department announced a new policy towards Burma that continued the existing political and economic sanctions but added a willingness to engage in high-level discussions with representatives of the SPDC. Previous U.S. administrations had generally refused to participate in high-level discussions with the SPDC. Burma’s two most recent experiences with nationwide plebiscites do not augur well for the democratization of Burma. In May 1990, the military junta—then known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC)—refused to relinquish power when Burma’s leading opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won 392 of the 485 seats in a parliamentary election. In May 2008, the SPDC held a referendum on a new constitution despite the widespread devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis only a few days before the vote.2 Five days after the referendum, the SPDC announced that over 98% of the eligible voters had cast votes, and that over 92% had voted in favor of the adoption of the constitution—results that were widely viewed as fraudulent. For the 111th Congress, the 2010 elections may be a strong indicator of the potential for political change in Burma. If, despite political restrictions, the SPDC conducts comparatively free and fair elections with official outcomes that appear to represent the views of the public, there may be calls from the Obama Administration and some sources for Congress to scale back the sanctions. However, if the SPDC manipulates
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