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BAJAJ ELECTRICALS Yet Another Disappointing Quarter

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BAJAJ ELECTRICALS Yet Another Disappointing Quarter RESULT UPDATE BAJAJ ELECTRICALS Yet another disappointing quarter India Equity Research| Engineering and Capital Goods EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS Bajaj Electricals’ (BJE) Q1FY15 numbers were disappointing with overall revenue growing mere 12%. While consumer durables (CD) and lighting Absolute Rating HOLD grew 17% and 7%, respectively, engineering & project (E&P) grew 7%. Rating Relative to Sector Performer EBITDA margin at 4.2% jumped 160bps due to low base effect and Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium Sector Relative to Market Overweight reduced E&P loss. PAT came in at INR56mn against INR7mn in Q1FY14, wherein profitability had been impacted by higher depreciation due to new regulatory requirement. While the E&P business is improving, MARKET DATA (R: BJEL.BO, B: BJE IN) deterioration in the consumer business was surprising. As we factor in CMP : INR 287 scenario of loss of market share in consumer business (mainly lighting) Target Price : INR 301 along with margin dip in both CD and lighting, we trim our FY15E and 52-week range (INR) : 385 / 150 FY16E earnings 24% and 14%, respectively. Hence, downgrade to ‘HOLD’ Share in issue (mn) : 100.3 with revised target price of INR301 (earlier INR350). M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 29/ 475 Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 202.3 Lighting business margin disappoints; E&P turnaround delayed SHARE HOLDING PATTER N (%) While we were expecting consumption slowdown to weigh on revenue, loss of market Current Q4FY14 Q3FY14 share in certain key product categories including lighting (driven by higher demand for Promoters * 65.9 66.1 66.2 LED against CFL earlier) along with drop in profitability was a negative surprise. MF's, FI's & BK’s 3.9 3.8 2.9 Revenue at INR8.9bn grew 12% led by CD (up 17%) despite impact of certain seasonal FII's 16.3 14.7 15.4 products and E&P (up 7%) where execution was delayed on certain sites. This has Others 14.0 15.4 15.5 pushed back the complete turnaround of E&P business. EBITDA margin at 4.2% * Promoters pledged shares : 1.7 improved 160bps due to low base in addition to reduced loss in E&P business. PAT at (% of share in issue) INR56mn was impacted by operating performance and higher depreciation. E&P business order backlog at INR22.4bn provides visibility for over 1.5 years. PRIC E PERFORMANCE (%) EW Capital Stock Nifty Outlook and valuations: Challenging; downgrade to ‘HOLD’ Goods Index Continued disappointment in E&P business has now been compounded by dismal 1 month (1.0) 3.1 (6.7) 3 months 14.7 15.3 19.6 consumer business, as it is losing market share in certain product categories, impacting profitability. While Q1FY15 was marred by consumption slowdown, drop in profitability 12 months 97.7 32.8 78.0 was higher than our expectation. Given uncertainties over the medium term in the consumer business along with delayed turnaround of E&P business, we downgrade our recommendation to ‘HOLD’ from ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of INR301. We retain ‘Sector Performer’ rating. The stock trades at 22.2x and 14.3x FY15E and FY16E earnings, respectively. Rahul Gajare Financials (INR mn) +91 22 4063 5561 [email protected] Year to March Q1FY15 Q1FY14 % change Q4FY14 % change FY14 FY15E FY16E Net revenues 8,876 7,890 12.5 12,710 (30.2) 40,298 46,344 54,360 Amit Mahawar EBITDA 369 202 82.1 535 (31.1) 818 2,928 4,126 +91 22 4040 7451 [email protected] Adj net profit 56 7 740.3 374 (84.9) (53) 1,297 2,015 Diluted EPS (INR) 0.6 0.1 739.5 3.7 (84.9) (0.5) 12.9 20.1 Swarnim Maheshwari +91 22 4040 7418 Diluted P/E (x) - 22.2 14.3 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 37.7 10.6 7.6 ROAE (%) (0.7) 17.0 22.3 July 31, 2014 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods Conference call: Key highlights Lighting • Overall lighting revenue was impacted by flat sales in lighting and ~17% growth in luminaries. • Lighting margins were impacted by a combination of slowdown in CFL market, higher demand for LED, increase in input price for CFLs and inability to pass on the same to consumers. • While the company has decent market share in LED-based luminaries, its market share in LED lights low. It now plans to increase its focus on LED lighting. • Management further downgraded the margin guidance in lighting to lower than FY14 levels (5.1%) against earlier expectation of 6% during FY15E. Consumer durables • Profitability was impacted in CD due to fans and Morphy Richards, where revenue grew 19% and 7.5%, respectively. • Management has downgraded FY15 margin guidance from 8.5-9.0% earlier to that of FY14 (7.7%) levels or marginally higher. E&P • The management maintained its earlier 25% revenue guidance for FY15 for E&P business. • While management had indicated that it is broadly done with cost overruns to close old projects with most of the provisions being booked during FY14 and expects profitability to improve over the next two years. However, given delay at certain sites, the turnaround in our view has been delayed by one more quarter with profits expected in Q3FY15. • BJE has strong order backlog of over INR22.4bn, providing visibility of over ~1.5 years. Other key highlights • Management maintained its overall revenue guidance of between INR47.5 and INR50.0bn during FY15. • The company plans to incur capex of INR0.9bn in FY15E towards R&D centre (approx INR0.5bn) and balance towards factory, office space and equipment. • BJE is likely to spend INR630mn on advertisements during FY15. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Bajaj Electricals Table 1: Segmental snapshot Year to March Q1FY15 Q1FY14 % change Q4FY14 % change FY14 FY13 % change Revenues (INR mn) Lighting 1,686 1,574 7.2 2,975 (43.3) 9,530 8,604 10.8 Consumer durables 5,046 4,321 16.8 5,330 (5.3) 19,252 18,246 5.5 Engineering & Projects 2,142 1,994 7.4 4,403 (51.3) 11,501 6,909 66.5 Total 8,875 7,888 12.5 12,707 (30.2) 40,282 33,759 19.3 Segment rev. mix (%) Lighting 19.0 20.0 23.4 23.7 25.5 Consumer durables 56.9 54.8 41.9 47.8 54.0 Engineering & Projects 24.1 25.3 34.6 28.6 20.5 EBIT (INR mn) Lighting 25 77 (67.5) 89 (71.9) 485 584 (16.9) Consumer durables 346 403 (14.2) 191 81.8 1,478 1,745 (15.3) Engineering & Projects (59) (259) NA (205) NA (1,032) (1,243) NA Total 312 221 40.9 74 320.9 931 1,085 (14.2) Segment EBIT mix (%) Lighting 8.0 34.6 119.4 52.1 53.8 Consumer durables 111.0 182.2 257.1 158.7 160.8 Engineering & Projects (19.0) (116.8) (276.5) (110.8) (114.5) Segment EBIT margin (%) Lighting 1.5 4.9 3.0 5.1 6.8 Consumer durables 6.9 9.3 3.6 7.7 9.6 Engineering & Projects (2.8) (13.0) (4.7) (9.0) (18.0) Total EBIT margins 3.5 2.8 0.6 2.3 3.2 Source: Company, Edelweiss research Chart 1: Lighting revenues & margins was impacted due to slowdown in CFL sales 3,500 15.0 2,800 12.0 2,100 9.0 (%) (INR mn) (INR 1,400 6.0 700 3.0 0 0.0 Q1FY09 Q3FY09 Q1FY10 Q3FY10 Q1FY11 Q3FY11 Q1FY12 Q3FY12 Q1FY13 Q3FY13 Q1FY14 Q3FY14 Q1FY15 Revenue EBIT Margins Source: Company, Edelweiss research 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods Chart 2: CD revenue was led by 20% growth in fans 6,000 16.0 4,800 14.2 3,600 12.4 (%) (INR mn) (INR 2,400 10.6 1,200 8.8 0 7.0 Q1FY09 Q3FY09 Q1FY10 Q3FY10 Q1FY11 Q3FY11 Q1FY12 Q3FY12 Q1FY13 Q3FY13 Q1FY14 Q3FY14 Q1FY15 Revenue EBIT Margins Chart 3: Losses in E&P segment continues 5,000 18.0 4,000 9.0 3,000 0.0 (%) (INR mn) (INR 2,000 (9.0) 1,000 (18.0) 0 (27.0) Q1FY09 Q3FY09 Q1FY10 Q3FY10 Q1FY11 Q3FY11 Q1FY12 Q3FY12 Q1FY13 Q3FY13 Q1FY14 Q3FY14 Q1FY15 Revenue EBIT Margins Chart 4: Overall sales and EBITDA margin movement 14,000 14.5 11,200 11.7 8,400 8.9 (%) (INR mn) (INR 5,600 6.1 2,800 3.3 0 0.5 Q1FY09 Q3FY09 Q1FY10 Q3FY10 Q1FY11 Q3FY11 Q1FY12 Q3FY12 Q1FY13 Q3FY13 Q1FY14 Q3FY14 Q1FY15 Revenue EBITDA margin Source: Company, Edelweiss research 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited Bajaj Electricals Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q1FY15 Q1FY14 % change Q4FY14 % change FY14 FY15E FY16E Net revenues 8,876 7,890 12.5 12,710 (30.2) 40,298 46,344 54,360 Raw material 6,746 6,177 9.2 10,466 (35.5) 32,016 36,299 41,886 Staff costs 473 402 17.8 417 13.5 1,860 1,885 2,212 Other expenses 1,288 1,110 16.1 1,293 (0.3) 5,604 5,231 6,137 Total expenditure 8,508 7,688 10.7 12,175 (30.1) 39,480 43,416 50,234 EBITDA 369 202 82.1 535 (31.1) 818 2,928 4,126 Depreciation 82 40 104.0 64 28.5 248 319 357 EBIT 287 162 76.6 471 (39.2) 571 2,608 3,769 Other income 23 19 20.0 89 (74.4) 153 186 218 Interest 233 164 42.3 226 3.4 783 850 965 Profit before tax 76 17 339.9 334 (77.2) (60) 1,945 3,022 Tax 20 11 86.8 (39) (150.5) (7) 648 1,007 Core profit 56 7 740.3 374 (84.9) (53) 1,297 2,015 Extraordinary items Net profit 56 7 740.3 374 (84.9) (53) 1,297 2,015 Adjusted net profit 56 7 740.3 374 (84.9) (53) 1,297 2,015 Equity capital (FV INR 2) 200 199 200 200 200 200 No.
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